banks and nbfcs - hdfc securities nbfcs - 3qfy20e... · 2020-01-09 · 5 banks & nbfcs: 3qfy20e...

Banks and NBFCs

3QFY20E Results Preview

9 Jan 2020

Darpin Shah [email protected] +91-22-6171-7328

Aakash Dattani [email protected] +91-22-6171-7337

Punit Bahlani [email protected] +91-22-3021-2081

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BANKS & NBFCs: 3QFY20E RESULTS PREVIEW

An uptick in recoveries, but not growth Corporate heavy banks like SBIN and ICICIBC are likely to benefit from substantial recoveries (Essar Steel, Ruchi Soya, Prayagraj Power and Rattan India Power to name a few). However, due to tepid macros, banks’ slippages may remain elevated (HFCs, SME and Agri are potential sources). Further, the RBI’s recent financial stability report has (1) forewarned that banks’ GNPAs may increase by ~60bps from 9.3% by Sept-20, and (2) noted a sharp 143bps increase in SMA II between Jun-19 and Sep-19. The increase in SMA II may have been due to the earlier default by a large HFC. Floods and unseasonal rainfall, and civil unrest in the eastern India may impact (slightly) AFCs’ asset quality.

The downtrend in systemic credit growth continued over Oct-Dec-19, led by a sharp fall in the growth of credit for services; growth of industrial credit remained sluggish while retail credit growth remained largely intact. Consequently, we expect slower overall loan growth across banks. However, we expect PVT banks within our coverage to continue to grow faster than the system. As systemic deposits continue to outgrow credit; banks’ CD ratios are likely to decrease. NBFCs may see a slight sequential (seasonal) uptick in disbursals and AUM growth. Availability of funds remains relatively constrained and continues to drive polarisation within the sector. Core home loan growth for HFCs may remain challenged as banks grow aggressively in this space.

As a result of the RBI’s ‘operation twist’, banks may report gains in their bond portfolio, albeit lower QoQ, as the decline in benchmark yields has

been lesser vs. that in 2Q. We expect stable spreads, although NIMs may contract due to lower CD ratios. Banks that witness high recoveries may however see a benefit on the margin front as well.

Banks

As systemic credit growth continues to slow, we expect banks within our coverage to report slower growth. However, PVT banks, particularly retail-heavy ones, will continue to grow much faster than the system.

We expect PVT banks’ CD ratios to dip, as deposit growth is likely to exceed credit growth.

While banks’ spreads may remain stable, NIMs may dip due to a fall in CD ratios. Higher recoveries may boost NIMs for SBIN and ICICIBC.

Substantial recoveries bode well for SBIN and ICICIBC. The slippage of a large HFC this qtr, may erase some of these gains for SBIN. The sector is likely to see elevated slippages and an increase in anticipated stress pools, due to extrinsic factors. FB, DCBB, CUBK and KVB particularly may continue to see elevated slippages. Certain banks may be impacted owing their exposure to a beleaguered stockbroker. GNPAs are likely to rise at RBK, this remains a monitorable as it saw ~Rs 8bn increase in anticipated stress in 2Q.

Commentary on asset quality (reported and anticipated stress pools) will be a monitorable for most players.

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NBFCs

We expect AFCs within our coverage to witness a slight (seasonal)

uptick in disbursal and AUM growth. Access to funds will remain a key

determinant of growth.

Growth in bank credit to NBFCs remains strong, but debt market

flows remain tepid. For a majority of the players, funding remains a

constraint, as stronger and larger players will continue to enjoy a

disproportionate access to funds and thus polarization within the

space is expected to persist. CIFC and MMFS will benefit.

While AFCs’ asset quality tends to improve sequentially in 3Q,

unseasonal rainfall, floods and civil unrest in eastern parts of the

country may have an adverse impact on asset quality (slight).

NBFCs’ margins should remain stable or expand slightly as the effects

of MCLR cuts become more pronounced.

For smaller players like INDOSTAR, funding may be a challenge as a

result of the continuing polarisation in the space. Wholesale asset

quality is a monitorable, given the unfavourable macro environment

and stress highlighted in the 2QFY20 commentary.

HFCs

As stiff competition from banks persists, growth in the core home

loan segment may remain challenged for HFCs. We believe that LICHF

may continue to find it particularly difficult to compete with the

external benchmark linked offerings of banks. What’s more, is that

the co has not been able to exploit the exit of two large HFCs from the

market over the past year. Asset quality is another major concern for

LICHF, particularly in its developer finance book, given the stress

faced by the sector.

LAP asset quality improvement and commentary on growth remain

key monitorables for REPCO.

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Banks

We like the traditionally corporate heavy banks (AXSB, ICICIBC and SBIN) as lower LLPs, given high coverage are likely to drive RoAE expansion here. The strategic re-orientation at AXSB bodes well for the bank’s long term prospects and adequate capital in uncertain times is always a positive. Value unlocking from SBIN’s unlisted subs/ strategic holdings over the next few years will boost SoTP value. Attractive valuations (<1x P/ABV FY22E) underpin our stance on SBIN.

CUBK remains our top pick amongst the smaller PVT sector banks as it exhibits great franchise, and consistently superior return ratios across cycles.

We have incorporated a fund raise into our estimates for RBK and we have retained our NEUTRAL rating on the stock.

NBFCs

CIFC remains our top pick from the NBFC pack and we believe it will continue to gain market share, benefiting from the ongoing polarisation in the NBFC space, as it enjoys a disproportionate access to funds.

We downgrade INDOSTAR to NEUTRAL, in spite of attractive valuations. External factors may continue to affect asset quality and dull growth prospects in the medium term.

View

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3QFY20E: Recoveries Bode Well For Corporate-Heavy Banks

COMPANY 3QFY20E

OUTLOOK WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES

SBIN GOOD

~13% NII growth, led by sub-10% loan growth and NIM improvement (on the back of recoveries).

Controlled opex (+4% QoQ) and steady other income growth will drive PPOP up by 23% YoY (-15% QoQ, as 2Q incl. gains from stake sale in SBI Life).

We expect ~11% PAT growth with a drop in LLPs (due to higher recoveries). 3QFY19 saw high investment related provision writebacks.

Stress book (GNPAs + SMA) movement.

Growth and margin outlook.

Need for additional provisions on its exposure to a large HFC and on account of divergence.

Whether SBIN opts for the lower corporate tax rate and the consequent impact of DTA and MAT credit reversals.

ICICIBC GOOD

We expect ~26% NII growth, led by ~13% loan growth

and NIM improvement due to higher recoveries.

~19% PPOP growth is expected.

With a dip in provisions, PAT is likely to register a sharp rise (2.5x YoY).

Movement of NPAs and the BBB and below rated book.

Comments on resolutions.

Comments on growth and NIMs

Subsidiaries’ performance.

Treatment of and provisions on the exposure to a beleaguered broking co.

KMB GOOD

~14% loan growth and NIM improvement (YoY) is

likely to drive ~17% NII growth.

We expect ~31% other income growth (as 3QFY19 saw

treasury losses) and controlled opex (+9%) growth,

this should result in ~32% PPOP growth.

We expect LLPs to dip QoQ (-25%).

~29% YoY PAT growth to be aided by lower tax rates.

Outlook on growth and macros.

Comments on the mandated reduction in promoter

stake.

Performance of subsidiaries.

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3QFY20E: Recoveries Bode Well For Corporate-Heavy Banks

COMPANY 3QFY20E


AXSB GOOD

We expect ~14% NII growth, led by ~15% loan growth and

stable NIMs.

PPOP to grow at ~5% after factoring in a dip in other

income and a mere 5% opex growth.

Net earnings of ~Rs 21bn are likely (+26% YoY), with a dip

in loan and tax provisions.

Movement of reported (GNPAs) and anticipated

stress (BB and below rated book) pools.

Comments on possible insurance biz. interests.

Outlook on growth and margins.

Subsidiaries’ performance.

IIB* GOOD

~18% loan growth and NIM improvement to drive ~32% NII growth.

Lower treasury gains may limit other income growth to ~15%.

PPOP may grow by ~23% as opex is expected to grow ~29%.

We build in significantly higher LLPs (+21% YoY), as coverage is low (~50%) and stress from certain corporate exposures may manifest.

PAT is expected to jump ~41%.

GNPA and watch-list movement (additions due to certain corporate exposures likely).

Provision coverage ratio. Retail business outlook (growth and yields).

Formal announcement about the new MD & CEO.

RBK BAD

We expect NII to grow by ~33%, even as loan growth decelerates sharply to ~23%, as NIMs are likely to improve YoY (down QoQ).

Other income growth to slow, in tandem with loan growth.

Opex is likely to remain elevated (+32% YoY).

PAT is likely to shrink ~73% YoY, due to higher LLPs.

GNPA and watchlist movement.

Growth momentum and NIMs.

Comments on the continuation of the partnership with BAF for the cards business.

*YoY nos may appear magnified as the base qtr does not incl. BHAFIN

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3QFY20E: Slower Growth For Smaller Banks

COMPANY 3QFY20E


FB GOOD

14% loan growth and NIM compression will lead to a mere 7% growth in core earnings.

18% opex growth and muted NII to contain PPOP growth (+4%), even as other income may grow ~22%, led by fees.

Benefits from the lower tax rate will be partly offset by higher provisions; net earnings to grow by 16%.

Additions to the watchlist and a possible higher stress in the SME segment.

Comments on growth and NIMs.

Utilisation of MSME restructuring , if any

CUBK AVG

Sub 5% NII growth, led by 12% loan growth and NIM compression (albeit stable QoQ).

CD ratio likely to rise marginally after declining for three consecutive qtrs.

Even as opex growth is likely to moderate (~13% vs. 18% in 2Q) , PPOP is expected to grow at 9% (vs. 17% in 2Q).

Higher LLPs will limit PAT growth to ~8% YoY.

Outlook on growth and NIMs .

Improvement in coverage ratio (calc. PCR at 45%)

Utilisation of MSME restructuring , if any.

Comments on TN macros, SMA II and the SME sector.

DCBB AVG

Sequentially higher business growth to be partially driven by the ADCB portfolio buyout.

NII growth (~9%) to be driven by ~13+% loan growth as NIMs compress.

Controlled opex (+10% YoY) and flattish other income will limit PPOP growth to ~5%.

After building in higher provisions, PAT to grow at 20%, aided by tax cuts

Comments on growth and NIMs.

Efficiency improvements.

Commentary on the LAP/SME businesses.


Treatment of and provisions on the exposure to the beleaguered broking co.

KVB BAD

Single digit loan growth (<5%) will keep NII muted (+5% YoY).

Tepid other income and ~8% opex growth may result in PPOP dipping ~5% YoY.

With a dip in YoY provisions (albeit elevated at 2.5%) net earnings are expected to jump 2.9x YoY (on small base).


Slippages from the previously identified watchlist and additions to the same.

Outlook on growth and NIMs.

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3QFY20E: Resilient Growth At AUBANK, AFCs’ Growth To Moderate Further

COMPANY 3QFY20E


AUBANK GOOD

Granular segments to drive healthy AUM growth (~33%);

the wholesale book is unlikely to grow in the current

environment. ~35% NII growth expected, with stable

NIMs.

Elevated opex growth may continue; higher other income

may boost PPOP growth (+52%).

We expect provisions to rise by ~75% YoY, albeit ~7%

lower QoQ.

Healthy PAT growth expected (+68%).

Retail deposit traction

Wholesale asset quality

Growth outlook for the core business segments.

Scope for further efficiency improvement.

SHTF AVG

We expect NII to remain flat YoY, while AUMs are likely to

grow by ~6% YoY, NIMs will remain under pressure.

Asset quality may be impacted by unseasonal rainfall,

floods and civil unrest in certain parts of the country.

LLPs are likely to remain elevated.

11% YoY PAT growth likely, albeit ~8% lower QoQ.

Outlook on growth and commentary on

availability of funds.

Impact of floods and civil unrest in parts of the

country on asset quality.

Update on the intra-group three way merger.

CIFC AVG

Disbursal growth to remain muted with slowing VF

disbursals, the HE segment will only partially offset this.

We expect ~20% AUM growth.

NIMs are expected to remain stable.

We model a ~12% YoY PPOP growth as a result of a ~30%

opex growth.

We expect PAT to grow by ~24%, with a slight rise in LLPs.

Outlook on growth (esp VF business)

Margin movement given some drop in MCLR

by banks.

Improvement in operating efficiency .

Asset quality in VF business (Impact of floods,

unrest in eastern India on asset quality)

Improvement in coverage.

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3QFY20E: AFCs’ Growth To Moderate Further

COMPANY 3QFY20E


MMFS AVG

A sequential uptick in disbursals should result in AUM

growth accelerating slightly to ~17%.

NII may grow by ~4% QoQ (+9% YoY), aided by NIM

improvement.

We estimate a ~12% opex growth.

Higher provisions will restrict PAT growth to 9% YoY.

Comments on growth and rural macros

Impact of floods, unrest in eastern India on asset

quality

Performance of the housing finance subsidiary .

Increase in PCR.

INDOSTAR BAD

We expect core earnings to dip by ~14% QoQ, as we

expect AUMs (-2%) and NIMs (2Q incl. higher assignment

income) to dip QoQ.

Higher provisions may persist due to previously identified

stress in the corporate book.

We expect net earnings to dip ~56/37% YoY/QoQ.

Corporate asset quality

Availability of funds and growth outlook

Progress on the co-origination tie up with

ICICIBC.

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3QFY20E: Tepid Growth For HFCs

COMPANY 3QFY20E


LICHF AVG

Steady AUM growth of 15% and stable NIMs will drive 16%

growth in core earnings.

We have factored higher provisions (similar to 2Q) given

PCR at ~43%

PAT to grow at 12%, aided by lower tax (YoY)

Asset quality in the retail book

Commentary on growth and spreads.

Resolution and incremental stress in developer

loans

Repayment rates, after banks introduced

external benchmark linked rates

REPCO AVG

Muted AUM growth (10%) to persist given muted demand,

tighter lending norms and issues in Maha and AP (sand

availability)

We expect NII to grow sub 10% with pressure on NIMs

(stable QoQ)

While we have factored LLPs at 20bps, it has been volatile

over the last 5-qtrs.

Reduction in tax rates to boost earnings by 28% YoY.

Comments on the availability of funds.

Growth outside the home town (TN)

Outlook on pricing.

Recoveries through SARFAESI and the status of

the residual stock .

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Financial Summary

Source: Companies and HDFC sec Inst Research

Rs bn NII PPOP APAT

3QFY20E YoY (%) QoQ (%) 3QFY20E YoY (%) QoQ (%) 3QFY20E YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Public Sector Banks

SBIN 257.1 13.3 4.5 155.2 23.0 (14.7) 44.0 11.4 46.3

Private Sector Banks

ICICIBC 86.7 26.0 7.5 73.0 18.7 6.2 40.3 151.1 515.2

KMB 34.4 17.1 2.7 25.7 32.4 2.3 16.6 28.7 (3.7)

AXSB 64.0 14.3 5.0 58.1 5.1 (2.5) 21.2 26.2 (1,992.5)

IIB 30.2 32.1 3.9 26.0 22.6 (0.2) 13.8 40.6 0.1

RBK 8.7 32.6 0.0 6.3 26.6 (0.7) 0.6 (72.5) 13.9

FB 11.6 7.3 2.9 7.3 3.7 2.1 3.9 15.9 (7.2)

CUBK 4.3 3.6 5.2 3.3 8.9 (3.6) 1.9 8.4 (0.2)

DCBB 3.2 9.3 2.4 1.8 4.5 (1.5) 1.0 20.0 13.1

KVB 6.1 4.9 2.2 4.0 (5.3) (6.6) 0.6 187.3 (3.8)

Aggregate 249.2 20.2 5.0 205.5 15.2 1.5 100.0 56.1 123.8

Small Finance Banks

AU 4.7 35.1 4.1 2.7 52.4 (1.7) 1.6 68.1 (6.4)

NBFCs

SHTF 20.5 0.9 2.5 16.1 (0.7) 1.4 7.0 10.6 (8.2)

CIFC 9.0 17.5 3.8 6.3 12.2 1.6 3.8 25.2 31.3

MMFS 12.9 9.1 4.4 8.3 11.7 1.6 3.5 9.8 39.6

INDOSTAR 1.9 7.9 (14.7) 1.1 (4.4) (20.8) 0.3 (56.2) (36.8)

Aggregate 44.2 6.6 2.4 31.8 4.6 0.5 14.6 10.1 8.0

HFCs

LICHF 12.6 16.4 0.8 11.4 15.0 0.3 6.6 11.9 (13.9)

REPCO 1.2 4.1 0.6 1.0 8.1 (0.6) 0.7 27.7 (29.0)

Aggregate 13.9 15.2 0.8 12.4 14.4 0.2 7.4 13.2 -15.6

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Peer Set Comparison

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research, #Adjusted for subsidiaries

MCap (Rs bn)

CMP (Rs)

Rating TP

(Rs)

ABV (Rs) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) ROAE (%) ROAA (%)

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

PSU Banks

SBIN # 2,854 320 BUY 418 182 215 250 12.3 7.8 5.4 1.31 1.09 0.86 7.6 10.9 13.0 0.45 0.64 0.77

PVT Banks

KMB # 3,159 1,655 NEU 1,690 239 277 323 39.7 32.7 26.6 5.67 4.77 3.98 14.9 15.1 15.7 1.96 2.01 2.07

ICICIBC # 3,391 526 BUY 580 155 178 207 31.2 16.1 11.8 2.67 2.28 1.93 6.9 12.8 15.4 0.83 1.40 1.65

AXSB # 2,042 725 BUY 992 272 314 363 34.0 15.5 12.6 2.56 2.22 1.91 7.5 13.7 14.8 0.68 1.31 1.41

IIB 1,034 1,459 BUY 1,984 515 581 688 19.6 15.4 12.2 2.83 2.51 2.12 16.5 16.6 18.1 1.73 1.86 1.94

RBK 176 346 NEU 347 189 211 238 33.9 15.1 10.6 1.83 1.64 1.45 5.7 10.4 13.4 0.58 1.08 1.24

FB 173 87 BUY 123 63 74 85 10.1 8.4 6.7 1.37 1.18 1.03 12.2 13.2 14.8 1.00 1.04 1.13

CUBK 169 230 BUY 265 68 79 91 21.1 18.3 16.0 3.40 2.92 2.51 15.3 15.2 15.0 1.62 1.62 1.61

DCBB 59 189 BUY 252 97 113 130 14.2 11.7 9.3 1.94 1.67 1.45 12.4 13.5 14.9 1.07 1.14 1.22

KVB 44 55 NEU 64 54 60 65 13.2 7.4 5.2 1.02 0.92 0.85 5.2 8.9 12.4 0.47 0.76 0.98

SFB

AUBANK 253 836 BUY 853 121 148 184 37.2 27.0 20.9 6.88 5.64 4.55 18.1 19.6 20.8 1.80 1.91 1.93

NBFCs

SHTF 256 1,130 BUY 1,605 597 776 964 8.3 7.4 6.5 1.89 1.46 1.17 18.0 17.2 16.8 2.76 2.71 2.72

CIFC 230 295 BUY 425 83 103 128 15.8 12.4 10.9 3.53 2.86 2.31 21.3 22.4 21.0 2.34 2.57 2.54

MMFS# 200 325 BUY 433 141 163 192 13.7 10.9 9.5 2.18 1.88 1.60 12.1 13.8 14.3 1.94 2.17 2.23

INDOSTAR 18 190 NEU 234 280 293 335 9.9 7.9 6.5 0.68 0.65 0.57 5.7 6.8 7.6 1.55 2.17 2.56

HFCs

LICHF 212 421 NEU 476 289 336 395 8.1 7.2 6.4 1.45 1.25 1.06 15.1 14.9 14.9 1.22 1.20 1.19

REPCO 21 329 BUY 428 246 293 350 7.0 6.1 5.3 1.34 1.12 0.94 17.6 17.1 16.8 2.48 2.49 2.53

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Rating Definitions

BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-) 10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period

SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-) 10% returns over the next 12 month period

Disclosure: We, Darpin Shah, MBA, Aakash Dattani, ACA and Punit Bahlani, ACA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. 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