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BALTIC PORTS CONFERENCE Shaping the port industry of tomorrow
Trelleborg/Sweden, 6-8.09.2017
Trends in shipping and port sectors
Impact of re-industrialization in
Europe
DSc, PhD, Maciej Matczak
Associate Professor
Vice-Dean for Cooperation and Development
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Gdynia Maritime University
Fundamental mission of Gdynia Maritime University is to educate
officers for merchant shipping and managers for the shore-based
companies of maritime industries, according to national, European
and world standards of education
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DEPARTMENT OF LOGISTICS AND
TRANSPORT SYSTEMS
DEPARTMENT OF COMMODITY SCIENCE AND
QUALITY MANAGEMENT
DEPARTMENT OF SERVICES
ECONOMICS
DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION
SYSTEMS
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL
COMMODITY SCIENCE AND CHEMISTRY
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND
ECONOMIC POLICY
Faculty of Enteprenuership and Quality Science DEPARTMENTS
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Faculty of Entrepreneurship and Quality Science EDUCATIONAL SERVICE AND RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
INNOVATIVE ECONOMY
Transport, Logistics & Forwarding Financial Management and Accounting Tourism and Consumption Management and ICT solutions
QUALITY SCIENCE
Cargo Supervising and Assessment Food Storage & Processing Environment Protection Quality Analysis of Commodities Nutrition & Dietetics
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Schedule
Global and regional economy as the engine for maritime
transport development macroeconomics trends
Global seaborne trade & The Baltics maritmie ports
performance market trends
Trends for logistics & transport sector implications for
maritime transport and port sector
Re-industrialization for Europe
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GDP growth vs. Trade development World Trade Statistical Review 2017
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Global trade growth by regions (2012-2016) World Trade Statistical Review 2017
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World merchandise trade value 2006-2016
-
GDP development of Baltic countries
1,9% 1,8%
3,2% 2,7%
2,3% 2,0% 1,9% 1,9% 2,1%
1,7%
-0,2%
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
2015
2016
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Value & volume trade growth in the EU Baltic
Sea Region 2016
0,8% 1,2% 0,7%
2,0%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
Value Volume Value Volume
EXPORT IMPORT
DENMARK
ESTONIA
FINLAND
GERMANY
LATVIA
LITHUANIA
POLAND
SWEDEN
BSR (EU)
-
Global seaborne trade 2005-2016 [million tonnes]
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Main bulk Containers Oil and gas Other
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Development of the Baltics maritime ports
turnover 2004-2016
2,5% 4,9%
1,9%
-0,6%
-11,9%
9,9%
3,7%
-3,1% -1,9% -0,9% -1,1%
0,5%
18,1%
4,6%
9,7%
6,4%
-3,7%
15,7%
5,5%
11,6%
4,2% 3,5% 3,3% 2,6%
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
800,0
900,0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BSR UE [m tons] Russia: Baltic [m tons] BSR UE (growth) Russia: Baltic (growth)
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Annual changes of turnover of the Baltics
maritime ports in year 2016
-9,3%
-3,3%
-0,5%
0,3%
1,0%
1,7%
2,6%
4,7%
7,8%
-12,0% -10,0% -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0%
Latvia
Estonia
Germany: Baltic Sea (e)
Denmark
Sweden (e)
Finland
Russia: Baltic
Poland
Lithuania
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Top 15 Baltic seaports 1H 2017
13,5%
-3,6%
7,5%
2,9% 3,6% 2,3%
-4,1% -0,7%
7,0%
23,0%
-0,3%
7,5%
-7,1%
9,9%
0,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Turnover 1H 2017 [mln ton] Growth [%]
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The Baltics container traffic 2004-2016
4,7
1
5,3
9
6,4
4 7,5
7
7,9
9
5,8
2
7,3
2
8,7
6
9,3
8
9,7
0
9,7
2
8,5
9
9,0
6
16,2% 14,4%
19,6% 17,4%
5,6%
-27,2%
25,9%
19,7%
7,1% 3,3%
0,3%
-11,7%
5,5%
-30,0%
-20,0%
-10,0%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Container traffic (m TEU) Dynamics (%)
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Top 10 container ports on the Baltic Sea 1H 2017
7,8% 6,7%
-6,0%
7,7%
-22,0%
3,6% 1,4%
14,0%
2,0%
33,7%
-30,0%
-20,0%
-10,0%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
0,0
200,0
400,0
600,0
800,0
1000,0
1200,0
Turnover 1H 2017 [TEU] Growth [%]
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Ro-ro traffic in maritime ports of the Baltic Sea
region [thou. tonnes]
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sweden
Finland
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Germany Baltic
Denmark
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LOGISTICS TRENDS
LOGISTICS BUREAU CERASIS Entrepreneur INDIA Trend Radar DHL: Socio-economic
Trend Radar DHL: Technological
Warehouse Robotics in the Supply Chain
Autonomous Road Transportation
The Blurred Line Between Logistics and Technology Services
The Appeal of Supply Chain Social Responsibility
The Race for the Last Mile
The Rise of the Virtual Logistics Team
Globalization Will Become More Important in Everyday Decisions
Product Life Cycles Will Grow Shorter and More Complex
Autonomous Trucks Will Drive Logistics Forward
Consumer Demand Will Shape Logistics Services
Organizations Will Streamline Reverse Logistics
The Amazon Barbell Will Gain Power
Intelligent and Data-Driven Supply Chains
Consumer Centric
Internet-of-Things
Augmented Reality
Efficient Returns Management
Autonomous Vehicles and Drones for delivery
Anticipatory logistics
Batch Size One
Convenience Logistics
De-stressing the Supply Chain
Fair & Responsible Logistics
Grey Power Logistics
Logistics Marketplaces
Multi-purpose Networks
Omni-channel Logistics
On-demand Delivery
Shareconomy Logistics
Smart Energy Logistics
Super grid Logistics
Tube Logistics
3D Printing
Augmented Reality
Big Data
Bionic Enhancement
Cloud Logistics
Digital Identifiers
Internet of Things
Low-cost Sensor Technology
Robotics & Automation
Self-driving Vehicles
Self-learning Systems
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
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Logistics trends important for the maritme
port sector
Robotics and autonomous transportation solution and/or
challenge for maritime ports
Barbell effect & race for the last mile market
concentration by alliances, mergers & acquisitions or
vertical integration
Intelligent and data driven supply chain digitalisation of
seaports and its inclusion
in the supply chain system
Anticipatory, consumer centric, on-demand and
convenience logistics decrease of distance between the
final manufacturing and customer re-industrialisation
Increased volatility of demand and sustain but uneven
global recovery over-capacity, freight rates at the lowest,
new external factors (e.g. Donald Trump and the Made in
America Supply Chain)
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Re-industrialisation of Europe
Headline goal (2012): 20% share in GDP of manufacturing
industry by 2020
EC six strategic priority areas:
1) advanced processing,
2) advanced generic technologies,
3) transport and clean vehicles,
4) bio products,
5) sustainable industrial policy, construction and materials,
6) smart grids,
Challenges: energy prices, environmental targets, global
competition
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EU support policies for industrial development
03.2011 An Industrial Policy for the Globalization Era,
06.2012 A Growth and Jobs Pact
10.2012 A Stronger European Industry for Growth and Economic Recovery
07.2013 A Stronger European Industry for Growth and Economic Recovery
01.2014 For a European industrial renaissance
02.2014 Industrial Strategy in Europe, Competitiveness and Growth
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Re-industrialisation of Europe
14,0%
15,0%
16,0%
17,0%
18,0%
19,0%
20,0%
21,0%
22,0%
23,0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BSR UE BSR UE (excl. Germany) EU 28 Re-industrialization
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Level of industrialisation of the BSR countries
[share in GDP of manufacturing industry]
16,1% 15,5%
22,9%
15,7%
12,5%
19,0% 20,4%
16,9% 16,5%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
EuropeanUnion
Denmark Germany Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Finland Sweden
2012 2016
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Thank you!
Maciej Matczak [email protected]