balkanmonitor-2010 summary of findings

8/8/2019 BalkanMonitor-2010 Summary of Findings

1/60

in partnership with the

2010

Summaryof Findings

www.balkan-monitor.eu


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3/60

2010

3

Dejan

abrilo

Intructin: Te Ne Nrmal in te Balkans ....................................5

Main nings ...........................................................................................7

Cuntr erie ..................................................................................10

Material situatin an lie satisactin ..................................................17

Financial iculties persist it a ramatic increase in Ks.....17

Attitues tar te EU ........................................................................21

Satisactin an cnence in te regins institutins .....................26

Perceptins crruptin an rganise crime ..................................34

Migratin an mbilit ..........................................................................39

Balkan callenges: etnic relatins an te uture te regin ........45

Cnclusins ...........................................................................................50

Metlg .........................................................................................52

Abut te Fun......................................................................................55

Abut Gallup Eurpe.............................................................................56

a pctus th cv msc w tk y tvws dug th dwk.

Cprigt 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rigts resere.

Contents


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5/60

2010

5

at tw dcds ws d pu cmc

tst, bk scts pp mstustu d

pssmstc, d thy hv mgt th md.

Thy wt chg ut scptc ut th -

ty t fuc th utcm. Th pp hv v-

cm sm s ut g hv y uss.

Thy p t tt t th pvt vs th-

th gg wth ptcs. Th vst mty

Ss, Cts, Mcds d ctzs bs

d Hzgv sy tht ptc pty pt-

c xpsss th vws. Wh skd t sy wh

thy tust, mst ctzs hv tt th t

sttuts ust k Smgs css ctzs,

wh vtd y ctg chcs.

T ys t th st w th g, thbks st pst cct usttd p-

tctts d wk stts. bs d Ksv

tppd th yth th ptcs sm--

dpdc; a, Mtg d Mcd

sm d custphc pucs mdd

buscs ity, wh th gvmts ppu-

st d t xtt ppu, d wh th pp-

st s dscugd d dscugg t th sm

tm. S hs shckd t y y th ss

Ksv ut s y th sc puc ut-

g wh th tty t s s sym

S pttsm ws st ( w-kw S

ust td m cty tht puttg Ksv

th cv pg ws th st wy t s ds).

Th w hv Ct, wh ts pp spt

th udgmt s t whth g th eU s ctu-

y gd d thg. Wht my Cts d

Ss g s tht pyg txs s wst

my.1 ad wh t cms t cmc hps,

t s dpssg t d tht th mty um-

pyd, cuts wth th xcpt S,

tht thy w t t d th xt

12 mths.

but w k yd th stkg um pp

wh dstust gvmts d udc systms, -

yd th um ths wh s cupt s-g d sdty dc, yu w s tht pp

td t hpp th xpctd d m dy

t tust stg th yu wud v dd t

hv hpd. Wht yu w s s th ut

w m th bks. Th ctzs th -

g g t v dysuct stts d

1 For Balkan Monitorsurvey results that are not dis-

cussed in the Summary o Findings please consult the whole

dataset at www.balkan-monitor.eu/index.php/dashboard. The

Balkan Monitordata dashboard also allows you to break downresults by geographical and socio-demographic actors.

Introduction: The New Normalin the Balkans

Imagine n a rain electin a, in an unname cuntr tat cul be anere,

almst tree-quarters te ting papers are returne blank. Te gernment e-mans tat te electins are re-el, en te sun is sining: te prtest increases

it 83% te electrate ting itut csing a caniate. Tat is te start Jse Saramags nel Seeing an anti-utpian isin pst-plitical emc-

racies ere peple are angr, te elite are cnspirac-mine an insecure, anere scial lie is parale.

Reaing te results te latest Balkan MonitorPll, te parallel it Saramags

parable is striking: ne as te eeling tat Saramags anere is te Balkans e-erere. In Seeing, peple te b rejecting all cices; in te Balkans, te speak

lul in aur an rganisatin tat is nt linke t teir gernment. Te sure

ss tat citiens te Balkan emcracies beliee in te Curc, te EU an teUN, but eepl istrust te institutins tat gern tem.


6/60

2010

6

dy gvd dmccs, d thy s

g th t dsstsct.

Wh th vst mty d t tht th cu-

ts w g ck t w (Mcds th mst

ccd ut th tu mty cfct),

bk scts hv st th hp tht pst-w

cmc gwth d tu t vydy w

sy std.

rdg th suts th Gallup Balkan Monitor,

cud ccud tht th eU hs st ts mgc

ut hs t st ts mptc. it s tu tht cd

wth th chc kpg th csttut m th cuty cmpmsg wth Gc

th t g th U, Mcds

suty stckg t th gus. Ss s sy tht

t s m mptt t ptd tht Ksv s pt

S th t th eU. but dcts

thg d ty s th. it s c tht th

ctzs th g hv y stc hp

tt d ptc stty, th tht hs t

td t th pspct th cuty g th

eU. ad ths s v tu Ct. i th Balkan

Monitorp, Cts u-scptcsm cud s

m s wy th cuty t dc ts pud

eup dtty th s ds t sty ut-

sd th U.

Th ctdcty dymcs th suppt,

a d Ksv, th d Gt

a s th st ustt hw mptt

eU pspctv s th g. Ths y, cm-

ps wth 12 mths g, puc suppt

Gt a hs dmtcy dcd a

d dmtcy csd Ksv. Th xp-

t ths ctdcty tds s qut vus wh as xpct tg th vs stcts

tv th eU t tk pc t th d th

y, y 7% Ksvs s tv cmg

s; 38% thk t w y cm wth th t-

t cgt th cuty.

Hwv, pdxc wy, th bks

m pt eup th y th mst dt

dvcts eU gmt c g t mg.

a th pms tht th g cs eup

ssus d t pdmty bk s.

Th qusts tht pp th g sk thm-

svs t td t th pst, thy td t

th utu. Hw w bk cms gw pst-

css eup? Hw w th mutcutu sttuts,

ut t dcd w d vt t-

sm, sustd t tm wh dg eup

ptcs hd t sy tht mutcutusm s

dd? Hw c sttut gmts, md

d t stp th w, tsmd t c-

tv gut cmm utu?

Th cspcy pst-w gmts, htc

ut cctv ghts, d cmc ud-d-

vpmt hs dd sm th t ptmsmtht swpt th g t th gg ths c-

tuy. but th css th bks s t smpy

th dysuctty th xstg sttuts ut s

th ut th vy mds tht bk sct-

s tyg t mpmt. i th dys th ohd

agmt t ws ppu t t Mcds tht

wht th agmt d thm ws th ps-

pct g th bgum. nw, hs t

sk Mcds wt th cuty t cm

th bgum, g md th wstu d

cmpctd wy whch bgum ucts tdy.

idd, c y pms Mcds tht

th xt 10 20 ys bgum w t mpd?

Fcusd th w pms, eups d

t hv tm t thk ut hw th css th

U mpcts th cu-

ts eups pph-

y. Ths shud chg.

Th bks w -

mty s vy much -

fct eups w

mty.

Ivan Krastev

Chm

Ct l Sttgs, S

d

Mm th advsy bd

eup Fud th bks


7/60

2010

7

Main findings

LIFE SATISFACTIoN ANdCoUNTRy dEvELoPMENT

i cuts th Wst

bks, m th h -

spdts ptd dcuts

g t mg th

hushds cm; ths sh

gd m 52% Ct t78% S. Cmpd t

2009, S, Mtg,

a, Ksv d bs d

Hzgv, m pp w -

ptd dcuts mkg ds

mt. i Ksv th ppt

spdts wth c dcu-

ts hs s y 19 pctg

pts t 54%.

bk sdts w s th pssms-

tc gdg th cms utu dvp-

mts. Ct ws th y cuty wh

spdts w m ptmstc th thy

w y g. Hwv, Ct s w

s th bk cuts, spdts -

g tht th stut ws gttg ws c-

y utumd ths g th ppst. i

bs d Hzgv, S d Ct,

ut tw-thds spdts xpctd t

s uth cmc dwtu.

i Mcd d S, pstv sgs wgstd ccg th mkt. Th

shs umpyd spdts wh w

ptmstc ut dg w wth th 12

mths wg th suvy s y ght p-

ctg pts Mcd t 24% d y

sx pts S t 45%.

ATTITUdES TowARd ThE EU

Gtg vs- tv t Mtgs,

Mcds d Ss dd t utmtcy

tst t hgh vs eU suppt

ths cuts. Wh Mtg th

ppt spdts syg tht th eU

ws good thing csd y sx pctg

pts t 73%, Mcd d S th

spctv shs m 62% t 60% d

m 50% t 44%. Suppt th eU s

dppd y v pts Ct t 28%.

as 2009, th cut suvy shwd tht

bk cuts, xcpt Ct, m-

ts spdts wud vt vu

th cuty g th eU; ppts

gd m 63% S t 93% a.i Ct, ths wh wud vt gst th

cutys ccss utumd ths wh

wud vt Ys (43% d 38%, spctvy).

i mst cuts, mts t tht eU ct-

zs wtd th cuts t th U

xcpt S, wh th sh pp

g tht thy wud wcmd th eU

hs dppd m 53% t 41% th pst y.

i cuts xcpt S d Ksv,

csg vs spdts vd tht

Novi Sad, Serbia

Dejan

abrilo


8/60

2010

8

eU ctzs wud ppct th cuts

ccss t th U.

rspdts bs d Hzgv hv

cm much m ptmstc gdg th

cutys eU ccss dt. Wh 2009,

th vg dt stmtd y tvws

th cuty ws 2022, bs spdts

w, vg, vd tht th cuty

mght s y s 2018.

SATISFACTIoN ANd TRUST IN

ThE REGIoNS INSTITUTIoNS rtv mts spdts a,

Ksv d Mtg w stsd wth

th cuts gvmt. i S, Ct

d bs d Hzgv, spdts

w t st th tms s ky t dsppv

th cuts gvmt s t st-

sd. a ws xcpt: ts ctzs

ppv th gvmt hs csd

stgy y 17 pctg pts (t 48%)

sc 2006.

Th cut wv th Balkan Monitorshws

tht ctzs th bk stts, xcpt

S, w m pstd y pt-

cs ptc pty th thy dd pvus-

y. a spdts w th mst ky t

pstd ptcy (60%), wd y

Ksvs (54%) d Mtgs (46%). i

th mg cuts, hwv, ut tw-

thds suvy ptcpts st dd t su-

cty pstd y th ptcs.

rg s gg mptc mst th-c gups th Wst bks. Th y

gups tht pcd ss mptc g

w Mcd ts d bsks

bs d Hzgv.

CoRRUPTIoN ANdoRGANISEdCRIME

Mts bk stts vd tht c-

upt gvmt d ussss ws

wdspd. i Ksv, tvws w

mst ky t v tht th v cupt

gvmt ws hgh (91%); Mtgs

w th st ky t sy ths (50%,

chg). Th ggst dc th pst 12

mths ws gstd Ksv, wh th

ppts ths vg tht th gv-

mt ws cupt s y ght pctg

pts.

as w th st cd t v

wdspd cupt th usss wd

(56%, dw m 67% 2009), cmpd

t m th 9 10 Cts (93%, up 1 pt)wh thught tht ths ws cmm pctc

th cuty.

a pstv dvpmt ws ud cc-

g th pcvd vs ptty cupt. i

bk stts, wth th xcpt Ct

(tht, hwv, ctus t hv mg th

wst vs xpcd ptty cupt),

th sh ths spdts wh hd

ctd wth cct xmp cup-

t dcsd cmpd t 2009.

MIGRATIoN ANd MoBILITy

as suvy wvs, spdts css

th Wst bks w m p t s

better opportunities abroadth t hm.

nt dvpmts w gstd

a d Ksv, wh th ums s-

g tt pptuts utsd th cuty

hv dmtcy sc 2008: y 25 p-

ctg pts Ksv (t 48%) d y 12

pts a (t 52%). Th ppst wss Ct d Mtg, wh th

shs tvws sg tt chc-

s d hv csd (sc 2008) y 17

pts (t 48%) d y 14 pts (t 52%),

spctvy.

M th 4 10 (42%) a spdts

wud k t mv t th cuty, -

wd y ughy thd Mcds d

Ksvs (31%-34%). Hwv, ust 14%


9/60

2010

9

Bijeljina, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Dejan

abrilo

a tvws wth ds t mgt

( 6% th tt um spdts) sd

thy hd cct ps t mv d.

BALKAN ChALLENGES: EThNICRELATIoNS ANd ThEFUTURE oF ThE REGIoN

Mst bk ctzs dd t tc-

pt th md cfct th

g; ppts ths sp-

dts hdg ths vw vd -

tw 62% S d 88%

Ct. a t chg ws g-std bs d Hzgv:

sc 2009, th sh tvw-

s thkg tht th sk w ws

t mmt hs csd shp-

y y 22 pctg pts t 49%.

rspdts Mcd d

S w th mst ky t sy

tht t ws probable certain tht

w wud k ut th g

(28% d 24%, spctvy).

i a d Ksv, th sh sp-

dts dg ghuy ts too strong

hs s sgcty th pst y (m 15%

t 30% cs th m d m 6% t

16% cs th tt cuty). Mwh,

Mcd, Mtg d Ct, p-

p w m cd, th 2009, t thk

tht ts wjust about right d dd t

d stgthg.

as th pvus wv, th hghst shs

spdts dvctg m g cp-

t w ud bs d Hzgv

(69%), S (64%) d Mcd (60%).


10/60

2010

10

Country overview

ALBANIA: wITh ThE ECoNoMy INBAd ShAPE, ALBANIANS hAvE FAIThIN ThEIR LEAdERS ANd IN ThE EU

i 2010, sgcty w as sd thy hd

cvd hp m d cmpd t st y

th sh spdts wh sd tht thy cud

y ds my utsd th cuty, wh

thy dd t, hs dcsd y pctg

pts sc 2009 (t 45%). Th g cmccss hs s mpctd th v cmc stu-

t: thd (34%) spdts t tht Ksvs

cmc stut ws gttg ws, sg m

qut (26%) 2009.

a suppt th eU md mg th

hghst th g t 81%, ut tht psts

dp ght pctg pts sc y

g. i th cs eU dum, hwv,

vst mty (93%) as wud dy

t vt Ys t ccss t th eU th hgh-

st such gu th Wst bks. rgdg

ccss dt, as w mg th

mst ptmstc mg ptt w mms

th bks vg, thy vd tht th

cuty wud 2014. nt supsgy th,

thy s t tht thy wud wcmd y eU

ctzs; sg sh a spdts

(69%) vd tht pp th eU wtd th

cuty t .

as suppt th dshp hs -

csg pst ys, 2010, 48% a

spdts sd thy ppvd th ds.

a p dvpmt ws th csg pp-t as tht t pstd y pty

ptc cuty 60% t s sm ws

spkg th h: th hghst t th -

g. naTo d eU md th mst tustd -

sttuts th cuty, wh th udcy cty

xpcd dp ctzs cdc d ws

tustd y 31% spdts (dw y 13 p-

ctg pts). Th sct g pps

t gwg: sc 2006, th sh pp stt-

g tht t pyd mptt pt th vs hs

s m 33% t 44%.

Dspt sght dcs, a st hs th hgh-

st ts, y , pp sttg tht thy hd t

sm th y p t th suvy t-

vw: h spdts (49%) hd ths p-

st. but th hv pstv dvpmts:

sgct sh as (35%, m th

ywh s th g) ud tht th v

gsd cm ws dcsg d pp w

csgy cvcd tht th gvmt ws

ctvy cmtg gsd cm (40%, up 3

pts).

Wh th sh pp sg tt pptu-

ts d hs dppd, m pp th v

xpssd th wsh t v th cuty. i

2010, 42% sd tht thy wud mgt th c-

cumstcs w ght. oy ud 6% a

spdts, hwv, hd cct ps t v

th y t th tvw, whch wud mut

t ughy 135,000 pp (sd th suvy -

suts g xtptd t th tt a pp-

ut). Tw-ths as vd tht vs

Kuks, Albania

anDrzejPYrKa


11/60

2010

11

st wud d t stg cs

mgt.

Th suppt th ct Gt a

cuty md up as m a, Ksv

d Mcd hs dcsd wh th sh

pp sttg tht ts wth ghug cuts

w t stg hs s stpy (m 15% t 30%

tw 2009 d 2010). nvthss, s-

ut mty spdts (42%) w cvcd

tht ghuy ts dd uth stgthg.

BoSNIA ANd hERzEGovINA: wIThMoRE BoSNIANS STRUGGLING ANdThE JoBLESS BEING INCREASINGLyPESSIMISTIC, ThERE IS A CALLFoR STRoNGER REGIoNAL TIES

Mt pms sm t csg thughut

th cuty wth m pp sttg tht thy w

hvg pms mgg th hushd

cm (m 58% t 66%, th pst y). Th

ppt spdts thkg tht cmc

cdts th cuty w gttg ws hs -

md m ss st (68%, up 2 pts) d

ss spdts hv gw much m pss-

mstc ut dg th y t th t-

vw: th-quts (74%) w thught tht th

ws sght (up m 42% 2009). Dspt

dsstsct wth th mt stut, th um-

pp wtg t g d ws tvy

w: 20% tvws xpssd wsh t v

th cuty whch 8% (ust ud 2% bs

spdts) hd cct mgt ps.

Th sh pp thkg tht bss ccs-

s t th eU wud gd thg s (cu-ty t 69% th wh bs) wth s-

pcy stg cs th tty rpuk

Spsk: wh 2008 31% spdts

rpuk Spsk hd thught eU ccss s

gd thg, th gu wt up t 56% 2010.

Dug th sm pd, eU suppt th bs

Fdt csd m 59% t 75%. Pp

th tts w m ptmstc ut th c-

css dt: 2009, bs spdts

vg vd tht th cuty wud

2022; tht dt hs w mvd t 2018.

M pp sd thy dsppvd th t

dshp ( chg m 67% t 74% sc 2009),

ut t th sm tm th hs stgy

gwg g g tt pstd y p-

tc pty ptc. Wh 2009, y 17%

hd th mpss tht smdy ws pst-

g th ptc vws, tht sh hs csd

t 32% 2010. rg w pys m mp-

tt th vs bs Cts d bs

Ss th 2006 wh ts mptc hs d-

csd bsk spdts. Wh th v

spdts sttg tht gsd cm ws

ctg th vydy vs hs dppd pst

ys, ut h (47%) st vd tht ts ps-c hs csd th pst v ys (th hgh-

st gu th g) d pp w th st

cvcd th Wst bk g tht th

gvmt ws dg t cud t ght t. Th m-

pct gsd cm sms t t stg

th bs Fdt: 66% spdts tht

tty t ctd y gsd cm dy

ccsy, wh th cspdg gu

rpuk Spsk ws t 41%.

ev m bs sdts w ct tht

th wud t w th g th u-

tu: th ppt s m 27% t 49%, wth -

th 32% thkg tht upcmg md cfct

ws t p. Th sh pp wtg

stg ts wth th ghug cuts ws

th hghst th g bs d Hzgv:

2010, 69% spdts xpssd such s

wsh.

CRoATIA: CRoATS ARE MoRE

SATISFIEd wITh LIFE, dESPITESEEING PERvASIvE CoRRUPTIoNANd LoSING FAITh IN ThE EU

ecmc stmt Ct hs t dtt-

d: th pctg spdts sg th c-

my mpvg hs s y u pts t 8%. ad

wh 2009, th-quts (74%) spdts

vd tht th cmy ws gttg ws, ths

sh dppd t ut tw-thds (64%) 2010.

eU suppt Ct hs chd sut

w, v w th tht s p-ccss


12/60

2010

12

cuts gmts.2 Wh1 th sh

ths g tht eU ccss wud -

th gd d th cuty hs md

uchgd t 38% sc 2009, m pp w

thught tht t wud d thg (up 4 p-

ctg pts t 32% 2010). oy 25% -

spdts Ct thught eU ccss s

gd thg d y 38% wud cuty vt

Ys eU dum s ppsd t 43%

tht wud vt n. o pstv dvpmt -

gdg Cts vws th eU ws tht thy w

w much m cdt tht thy wud w-

cmd th eU: cs m 42% t 55%

spdts wh t tht pp wtd Ct th U.

Wh m th tw-thds (70%) Cts dsp-

pvd th ds pmc, Ct ws

th y cuty th g wh cdc th udc systm hs gw sc 2008: 44%

spdts w sttd tht thy hda lot some

tust th udcy (up m 25%). Ct cuty

hs th hghst ts pp syg tht

2 The question Generally speaking, do you think

that [COUNTRY]s membership of the European Union would

be a good thing, a bad thing, or neither good or bad?has

also been asked in Candidate Country Eurobarometer surveys

conducted by Gallup or the European Commission prior to

the 2004 European Union enlargement. To consult the results

o these surveys please visit http://ec.europa.eu/public_opin-ion/archives/cceb2_en.htm

g pys mptt th vs (68%).

Ct hs sm th hghst Wst bks

ts spdts tht sw cupt s g

pvsv gvmt (89%) d usss (93%).

o th th hd, th s-ptd cdts

gvg s t gt thgs d w mg th

wst th g (10% spdts sd tht

thy hd hd t gv th y th

tvw). Sc 2008, th t pp sts-

d wth th gvmts cts gst g-

sd cm hs g up y v pctg pts

t 17%. Tw-thds spdts, hwv, w

st dsstsd.

Th um pp sg tt

pptuts utsd th cu-

ty hs ctud t cs (up 3

pts t 48%). Ths hs t, hw-

v, d t cs pps

wsh t v th cuty whch -

ms th wst th g: 13%

tvws sd tht thy wud

mgt ud d ccumstcs.

KoSovo: wITh CoN-CERNS ABoUT ThE ECoN-oMy ANd wIdESPREAdCoRRUPTIoN, KoSovARSLooK TowARdS ThE EU

Ksv sms t hv wtssd

mst wyg dvpmt th

pst y. i th pst t hs hd th

mst upt Wst bk sdts, ut 2010,

my m pp cmd tht thy w stug-

gg cy: cs m 33% t 54%. Thsdvpmt cud pty xpd y shp

dp th ums Ksv as syg

thy cvd my d gds m d: d-

cs m 23% t 15%. ad wh th sh

pp sg th cutys cmy s mpv-

g ws g wth Mtg th hghst

th g t 30%, m d m pp thught

th ppst tht Ksvs cmy ws gttg

ws: m 23% 2009 t 37% 2010. a stk-

g 59% umpyd spdts dd t -

v tht thy wud d th y wg

th suvy tvw; ths ws spcy dstug

Osijek, Croatia

HelenaUPer


13/60

2010

13

Prizren, Kosovo

gv th ptd umpymt

t stmtd 45.4%3 2010.2

Suppt eU ccss md

hgh t 87%, ut Ksv sp-

dts w ss cvcd tht th

pp th U wtd th

cuty t ; th sh pp

g tht Ksv wud w-

cmd hs dppd m 75% t

65% 2010.

Th ppv Ksvs d-shp, mg th hghst th g

Balkan Monitorwvs, hs

dppd m 59% t 48% tw

2009 d 2010. Ths ducd sup-

pt th dmstt ws fctd w

cdc th t gvmt d th

udc systm.

bth Ss d as Ksv w d -

g much m mptt th thy dd u ys

g. Th shs spdts csdg t t

mptt pt th vs hv csd m

59% t 81% ( Ss) d m 68% t 89% (

as) th pd sc 2006.

Th pcpt tht gvmt cupt ws

pvsv hs s y ght pctg pts (t

91%). o th th hd, w pp sttd

tht thy hd t gv s (t gt smthg d)

th y th tvw: th t s

g d hs dppd m 20% t 9%. a sm-

dvpmt cud svd th

gsd cm wh th sh spdtssttg tht th cm twks ctd thm

psy hs dppd m 67% t 43%.

Th ws stg dc th um t-

vws wh sw m pptuts d th

th w cuty (m 64% t 48% sc 2009)

dvpmt py kd t th stg dp

3 See the EU Candidate and Pre-Accession Coun-

tries Economic Quarterly at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_f-

nance/db_indicators/cpaceq/documents/cceq_2010_q3_en.pd

mttcs cvd. as sut, wh ut

-thd (31%) spdts xpssd wsh

t v th cuty, y 8% ths (s 2%-3%

tt Ksv spdts) hd cct ps t

v. a y g t hd 16% ths wt-

g t v.

askd wh thy xpctd t cudd th

vs st schm th Schg z,

52% spdts dd t kw d th

38% sttd tht thy dd t xpct t cudd

ut th cuty ws cgsd tty.

rspdts Ksv xpssd wsh t-

t ts wth ghug cuts 55% sttd

tht thy w t stg ugh. a sp-

dts Ksv w s vy supptv th

ccpt Gt a, cuty cmpsg

th tts Ksv, Mcd d awth mty-a pputs. i 2010, 81%

Ksv as supptd such d, up m

54% 2008.

a cmpms sut t th cfct wth S

dd t sm t d y suppt m Ksv -

spdts. Vst mts (90%-93%) th

Ksv as d Ksv Ss dsppvd

ps t th S-pputd s

t xchg th s wth S mty

a-pputd tts th suth S.


14/60

2010

14

MACEdoNIA: PEoPLE ARE LESS

SATISFIEd wITh LIFE; vISA-FREE TRAvEL hAS hAd LITTLEEFFECT oN EU SUPPoRT

Wth 72% spdts sttg tht thy cud

y mg th hushds cm wth d-

cuty wth gt dcuty, Mcd hs

th hghst shs pp stuggg c-

y. a smy dmtc stut hd svd

pvus wvs th Balkan Monitor, d ths

hdshp sms t wgh hvy th stsc-

t pp Mcd. askd t t hw st-

sd thy w wth th vs g, scm 0 t 10, pp vg gv th vs

sc 4.2 th wst th Wst bk -

g, d dw 0.3 pts m th sc msud

2006.

Th tduct vs st t 2009

sms t hv hd tt ct Mcds

vw th eU. Sc 2006, Mcds suppt

th eU hs stdy dcsd: 60% sp-

dts thught Mcds eU ccss s

gd thg, dw m 76% 2006. nvthss,

dum ut eU tgt wud st gth

g mty Ys vts: 82% Mcd

sdts sttd tht thy wud vt p eU.

Mcd s th w cuts cvd y

th Balkan Monitorsuvy wh th sh -

spdts g pstd y ptc

ptc pty hs dcsd th pst y. Wh

42% spdts t pstd 2009, th

sh hs dcsd t 33% ust y t.

amg th Mcd d a sp-

dts th cuty, th pps cdc -sttuts hs dcsg css th d.

Wh gus gsts w st mg th

mst tustd sttuts, th sh pp hv-

g cdc thm hs dcsd m 74%

t 69% mg Mcds d m 82% t

69% mg Mcd as. Th udc

systm ws th st tustd sttuts

th cuty: y 31% Mcds d 20%

Mcd as hd th th sttut.

Th sh pp ptg tht thy hd t

sm t gt smthg d th y

th suvy hs dcd m 20% t 13% sc

2009, ut m th tw-thds (70%-74%) st sw

hgh-v cupt s pvsv th gv-

mt d th usss wd.

M spdts Mcd th y th

cuty th g vd tht tt pptu-

ts cud ud d: 58% thught tht wy

(up 4 pts m 2009). Hwv, dspt s

th um pp tht wud dy k t

v th cuty, y 13% th 34% tht t ths

wy (ut 4% spdts) hd cct ps

t v pmty th y t th suvy.

as pvus wvs th Balkan Monitorsuvy,

m Mcds th y th gup t tht

th ws st dg md cfct: 28%

spdts t tht w wud cty

py hpp. Th sh spdts t

vg tht pssty, hwv, hs s:

2006, 55% dd t v th pssty -

th w, ths gu hs csd t 64% 2010.

MoNTENEGRo: MoNTENEGRINSARE MoRE SUPPoRTIvE oF ThEEU, hAPPIER ABoUT LIFE ANdLESS AFFECTEd By CRIME

lk mst th w sdts th Wst

bks, Mtgs st sug m th -

cts th c d cmc css. aut 7

10 (71%) spdts sd thy w hvg d-

cuts mgg th hushds cm.

Tht gu hs hdy chgd sc 2009, ut

t ws much hgh th th css (51%

2008). i sm v, th ppt sp-dts xpctg th ctu cmc stut t

mpv (30%) hs md st d th sm

hds tu th um umpyd tvw-

s wh w ptmstc ut dg w

th xt 12 mths (50%). i 2010, hwv, w

Mtg sdts cud cut ds d

tvs wh w vg d (31%, mus 7 p-

ctg pts); dspt ths, Mtg hus-

hds dd cv m my m d th

thy dd th pvus y (pus 3 pts t 12%).

Ths pstv dvpmt th ctu ts


15/60

2010

15

Herceg Novi, Montenegro

MarKo

MiloeVimy/gds ws uqu mg Wst

bk cuts. as cuts, xcpt

a d Ksv, spdts th

cut wv w m ky t v tht

pptuts d w tt th t hm

(pus 7 pts t 52%). agst th ckdp

cmc stgt, t s tstg t

s tht th vg stsct mg

Mtgs hs csd: th sc hs

s t 5.5 (up m 4.8) sc m 0 t

10 ths ws th hghst sc Mtg

sc th uch th Balkan Monitor 2006,

mst qug Cts sc 5.6.

Vs st tv t th Schg

Mtgs sms t hv hd

sustt ct suppt th eU, whch

chd w pk wth 73% spdts

syg tht th cutys eU mmshp wud

good thing (pus 6 pctg pts). at th

sm tm, spdts Mtg w w

m ky t tht th mmshp wud

wcmd y eU ctzs (pus 5 pctg

pts t 59%). Ths ws wth th ct tht

Mtgs, vg, w thught tht eU

ccss wud hpp 2016 d t 2017,

s stmtd dug th pvus wv.

Dspt ths cugg dvpmts eU-

td s, pp Mtg hv cm

m scptc th cutys dshp: 41%

w dsppvd th ds pmc

(pus 12 pctg pts), wh th um

ths gvg th ppv hs md t 48%.

ev s, th t gvmt ws y th

mst tustd th g (70% xpssd a lot or

some tust t). a wyg td, thugh, ws -svd gdg dm xpss: 64%

suvy ptcpts sd tht mst my pp

w d t py xpss th ptc vws

(cmpd t 50% 2006). Ths ws th hghst

gu th Wst bks.

lvs pcvd gvmt cupt w

st Mtg (t 50%), wh w pp

thught tht cupt ws wdspd th us-

ss wd (mus 5 pts t 64%). Th w

s w spdts syg tht thy hd hd

t s t gt smthg d th st 12

mths (mus 6 pts t 13%).

Futhm, Mtgs w w th st k-

y bk sdts t sy th dy vs w -

ctd y gsd cm (mus 3 pts t 7%).

Ths s tstd t hgh um sp-

dts g stsd wth th gvmts ts

t cmt gsd cm (pus 6 pts t 41%).

Puc p Mtg ws tvy sup-

ptv ptt mmshp naTo: 38%

spdts supptd th cutys ccss

t th ac d 24% thught tht t wud a

bad thing.

SERBIA: dESPITE ThE ECoNoMIC

oUTLooK, SERBS do NoT wANTTo EMIGRATE ANd JoBLESSFEEL MoRE oPTIMISTIC

Th md-tm cts th c d cmc

css st gg S: usttg 78%

spdts th cuty sd tht thy hd

dcuts mkg ds mt. Ths t ws th

hghst th g d hs md uchgd

sc 2009. i th cs S, ths cmc

hdshp ds t sm kd t th ducd -

fw mttcs: wvs th bk


16/60

2010

16

Mt, tvy w pctg pp th

cuty (cuty 6%) hv sd thy cvd m-

y gds m d th pst 12 mths. i

sm ght, pp S w s th mst

pssmstc gdg th cmc dvpmt

th cuty: 70% spdts (pus 4 pct-

g pts sc 2009) sw cmc cdts

s gttg ws. o spcc dg th Balkan

Monitorc , hwv, tptd s ght t th

d th tu: sg sh umpyd -

spdts (45%, up m 39% 2008 d th

hghst such t th Wst bk g) ws

hpu tht thy wud d wth y t

th suvy tvw.

eU suppt S hs stdy dcs-

g sc th gg Balkan Monitormsu-

mts 2006. F th st tm ths pd, ss

th h spdts (44%) thught eU c-

css s gd thg. it sms, hwv, tht

th cs dum ( th Sudy t

th suvy tvw) mty wud st suppt

Ss eU mmshp ps wth 63% sttg

tht thy wud vt Ys. Ss dcut pth t

eU tgt sms t hv fctd hw p-

p pcvd th eU ctzs stc th mtt

Ss ccss: th sh pp thkg

tht pp th eU wt S t th eU

hs dppd m 53% t 41% tw 2009 d

2010.

oy 22% spdts S sd thy p-

pvd th ds (-5 pts sc 2009) d

tht mt tht tw-thds S sdts ds-

ppv th dshp. a sm sh (68%)

dd t pstd y y pty ptc.

Wh, 2010, m pp dd sy tht thy tpstd ptcy (pus 7 pctg pts

sc 2009), tht gu ws y qut (27%)

th pput.

Wth th Wst bks, S ws th

cuts wh pp w th st wg t sy

tht g pyd mptt th vy-

dy vs ust v h spdts sttd tht

ths ws th cs. Ss vw cupt gv-

mt d usss hs md vy ctc

wth m th 8 10 spdts cmg tht

cupt ws wdspd th dms. at th

sm tm, th ws sgct dp sx p-

ctg pts th s-ptd d t gv

th y p t th tvw; 2010, 12%

sttd tht thy t cd t py th 12

mths th suvy.

Dspt th dmtc c stut mst -

spdts d pps gmy utk ut th

cutys utu, sg sh spdts x-

pssd th wsh t m S. Wh 2006,

qut tvws dy wud hv kd

t v th cuty d mst tw-thds (63%)sd thy wtd t sty, u ys t, th-

quts (77%) wshd t m S wh ust

19% sw tt swh. Tgth wth p-

p Mcd, S spdts w th

gup mst ky t s sk w kg ut

th g wth th xt v ys qut

(24%) thught tht such vt ws py

cty gg t hpp. at th sm tm,

spdts S md k ut t-

t ghuy cpt; ust s 2009, ut

tw-thds (64%) sttd tht th ts t ghu-

g cuts shud stg. rgdg vy

tpc ghuhd cfct, th ut dc-

t Ksv, Ss w t cmg m

ccty d w ss ky t ccpt cmp-

ms suts. Wh 2008, h spdts

thught tht th ptt Ksv cud pt

pss utu sut, 2010, y 43% gd

wth such d wh tw-thds (67%) thught

tht S wud v cgs Ksv s

dpdt cuty.

a sm tsgc cud svd cc-g Ss pss utu ccss t naTo: y

13% S thught t wud gd thg,

wh 52% t tht t wud d. lsty, s-

su gt mptc t Ss mts c-

cg eU tgt, 37% spdts th

cuty thught tht w cm t g rtk

Mdc cud t ud y th uthts -

cus h ws hdg d. a sm sh

35%, thugh, w cvcd tht th uthts

kw wh h s, ut d t wt t cptu hm.


17/60

2010

17

Financial difculties persist with adramatic increase in Kosovoat th tm th 2010 suvy, mts css

Wst bk cuts sttd tht thy ud t

dcut t mg th hushds cm.

Ths ppt ws th smst Ct, wth

52% sttg tht thy gt y with difficulty with

great difficulty, wh th gtst ppt p-

p stuggg ws s S, wh 78%

tvws ptd dcuts mkg ds

mt. i Wst bk cuts, xcpt

Ct d Mcd, s th ums -

ptg c dcuts ws svd tw

2009 d 2010. Th s ws mst dmtc

Ksv, wh th sh pp stuggg -csd m 33% t 54% wth ust y. 1

A steady decline in people beingable to count on help rom abroad

My studs udtk sc th gg

th cmc css hv shw tht th

4 For a recent study see How are the Balkans

Weathering the Storm o the Economic Crisis by Marin Less-

enski at http://www.iris-bg.org/fles/The%20Western%20Balkans.pd

stgst cts th css bk cms

hs th sht mttcs. Du t c-

mc hdshp d dcut u stut th

tdt tgt cuts Wst bk m-

gt wks such s Gmy, ity d Gc,

my mms wkg x hv hd t th

tu t th bk g duc th mut

my st ck hm.

Th suts th cut Balkan Monitor cy

cm such yss. Sc th qust -

gdg th hp tvs ds vg d

ws skd th st tm (2006), th sh

pp sttg tht tms hdshp thy cud

y cs tv d d hs stdy dcg mst cuts. Th dp ws

spcy stp Ksv d Mtg wh

th ppt spdts g t cut

hp m xs wt m 56% t 36% d

m 51% t 31%, spctvy. a (45%) d

Mcd (41%) hd th mst spdts stt-

g tht thy cud y hp m d; S

(27%) d Ct (26%) hd th wst ums.

Th dc th um Wst bk m-

gts g t hp th my ds t

hm s fctd th ct tht dcg shs

Numerus ecnmists ae cmmente tat western Balkan cuntries ll gen-

eral Eurpean an glbal trens in teir ecnmic eelpment albeit it a certaintime lag.4 Te nancial an ecnmic crisis tat struck western Eurpe in 2008, r

eample, seems t ae a its rst impact n Balkan ecnmies in 2009. Tisears sure results, terere, sul be able t gie a g inicatin n eter

te recer eperience b large Eurpean ecnmies is alrea being elt b west-ern Balkan resients r eter te crisis is still a realit r peple in te regin.

iViCaMaTeji

Material situation and lifesatisfaction


18/60

2010

18

spdts mst cuts cv my

gds m ctcts d. i 2010, such d-

vpmt ws vs css tts th

Wst bks, ut msty ctd as v-

g a, Ksv d Mcd tdt-

y th thc gup wth th hghst pctg

mgts th Wst bks. Wh 2009,

sh 23% Ksv as 18% spd-

ts a d 19% Mcd as

sd thy cvd hp m d, 2010 th

pctg hd dcsd t 16% as (

a) d 15% as Mcd d

Ksv. Ths dmtc dcs ght pct-

g pts ws cty th ss th

wsg mt stut Ksv dscd

th gg ths chpt.

Balkans economies still eelingthe eects o the crisis

rgdg th qust s t whth th bk

cms w cvg t th css, th

vws th pp th bks w c: thy

dd t v tht th spctv cms

w gttg hth. btw 2009 d 2010,

cuts xcpt Ct, th ws cs

th pctg pp g tht th c-

mc stut th cuts wsgetting worse;

uthm, cuts, ths g tht th

stut ws gttg ws utumd ths

spdts sttg tht t ws gttg tt. Th

stut ws s s g spcy gmy

bs d Hzgv, S d Ct wh

ud tw-thds spdts t tht th stt

th cms ws wsg. Th dvp-

mt cmc stmt s spccy gtv

S, wh th sh pp g tht th

cmy ws gttg ws s m 24% t 70%

th pd tw 2006 d 2010. Th hghst

sh ptmstc spdts g tht th

cmc stut ws mpvg ws s

Mtg d Ksv (th 30%).

amdst ths gmy stmt gdg th vcmc stut, th 2010 Balkan Monitordt

dd t pvd my dcts tht wud sup-

pt th thy tht th Wst eup cv-

y wud s wd y upwd td

th bks. amg th w pstv sgs ws th

-td ptmsm umpyd spdts

Mcd d S. askd whth thy w

hpg t d wth th 12 mths t th

suvy, hgh ums ss spdts

th cuts t tht t ws very likely tht there

was a good chance tht thy wud d mpy-

mt. i Mcd, ths um s m 16% t

MAJoRITIES STRUGGLING To MAKE ENdS MEET IN

MoST wESTERN BALKAN CoUNTRIES

Can you manage on your households income?

1551511522222222 23323223

16616116 20020220 19919119 14414114 1331311318818118 15515115 13313113 14414114 9999

16616116 14414114 111111115555

14414114 9999 12212112 10010110

52252552

54454554 55555555

47747447

52252552 53353553

46646446 45545445

48848448 5115155146646446

51151551

42242442

53353553 57757557

31131331

28828228

4004044039939339

4554544542242442

'0880' 80''08 '0990' 90''09 '1001' 01''10 '0880' 80''08 '0990' 90''09 '1001' 01''10 '0880' 80''08 '0990' 90''09 '1001' 01''10 '0880' 80''08 '0990' 90''09 '1001' 01''10 '0880' 80''08 '0990' 90''09 '1001' 01''10 '0880' 80''08 '0990' 90''09 '1001' 01''10 '0880' 80''08 '0990' 90''09 '1001' 01''10

With great difficulty With difficulty

SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia Bosnia andBosnia andBosnia andBosnia and

HerzegovinaHerzegovinaHerzegovinaHerzegovina

AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania A lban ia MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia


19/60

2010

19

24% tw 2008 d 2010 wh S th

sh ptmstc -sks wt up m 25%

t 45% th sm tmm.

Wh th pstv g S fcts th p-

vg cmc stmt tht cuty, t wud

t suct t tu-ud th p mpy-

mt stut th Wst bk g. Wh

th umpymt t S ws tvy

hgh t 17.4% 2009, t ws stgy xcdd

y bs d Hzgv (42.7% 2009) d

Ksv (47.5% 2008). j-td ptmsm

wud th sst ths tw cuts;

hwv, th Balkan Monitorgus suggstd tht

th ss th stts w m g up-t ut th pspcts. i Ksv, th sh

umpyd spdts dg t not likely

not likely at alltht thy wud d wth

y gw y ght pctg pts t 59% (m

2009 t 2010), wh bs d Hzgv th

sm gu skycktd m 42% t 74% ust

y. it sms tht ptcs cmpg pm-

ss p t th oct 2009 g cts

bs d Hzgv hv t std m

cdc th cutys ss.

Money is not everything

amg cmsts d ptc ysts th s

m d m tk t k yd GDP wh

kg t cmys w y puttg ct-

zs wg t th ct yss. Th Balkan

Monitorskd qusts ut wg sc th

gg msumts th Wst bk

g d s w t pvd sght t th

tds ud Wst bk sdts sts-

ct. i 2010, th wg-td qus-

ts md t ssss pps stsct y

skg thm t pc th gs ut th w

sc m 0 t 10.

judgg y th vgs s-ssssmts gv

y spdts th spctv cuts, pp

Ct w mst stsd wth th vs thy

gv thmsvs sc 5.6 vg. Th

st stsd w spdts Mcd wth

vg 4.2 dcs 0.3 pts m

th st suts gthd tht cuty 2006.

lkg t th g, th vs stsct

hv t wd th gtv cmc tds,

ut sm t hv md th st

sc 2006.

LESS MoNEy oR GoodS RECEIvEd FRoM ABRoAd ACRoSS ALMoST ALL

BALKAN EThNIC GRoUPS oR ENTITIES, oNLy MoNTENEGRo SEES A RISE

In the past 12 months, did this household receive help in the form of money or goods from another in-

dividual living abroad?

18181818

16161616

9999 9999

12121212

7777

3333 2222

23232323

15151515

44443333

18181818

15151515

8888

6666

9999

12121212

7777 6666

'09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10

Yes

Albania BiH

Federation

BiH Republika

Srpska

Croatia Kosovo

Albanians

Kosovo Serbs Macedonia

Albanians

Macedonia

Macedonians

Montenegro Serbia


20/60

2010

20

JoBLESS ARE PESSIMISTIC, ExCEPT IN MACEdoNIA ANd SERBIA

Do you think you will get a job in the next 12 months? (bs: umpyd spdts)

888820202020

151515159999

19191919 151515158888

2121212114141414

33339999

25252525

8888 5555 5555 8888 9999 10101010 6666

7777

1919191918181818

9999

26262626

1414141415151515

29292929

36363636

8888

3636363629292929

12121212

23232323

8888 11111111 1414141416161616 16161616

29292929 3939393934343434

38383838 51515151

34343434

39393939

45454545

36363636

27272727 30303030

37373737

34343434

49494949

32323232

27272727

56565656

32323232

4242424245454545 45454545

3232323224242424

44444444

111111119999

34343434

444415151515

30303030

17171717 8888

33333333

17171717

10101010

32323232

15151515 18181818

4040404023232323

24242424 22222222 20202020 21212121

666612121212 7777 13131313 11111111 12121212 11111111

666613131313

2121212110101010

4444

23232323

9999 9999 13131313 151515157777 8888 10101010 10101010

'08'08'08'08 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '08'08'08'08 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '08'08'08'08 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '08'08'08'08 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '08'08'08'08 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '08'08'08'08 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '08'08'08'08 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10

Yes very likelyYes very likelyYes very likely Yes very likely Yes there is a good chanceYes there is a good chanceYes there is a good chanceYes there is a good chanceNot likelyNot likelyNot likelyNot likely Not likely at allNot likely at allNot likely at allNot likely at allDK/NADK/NADK/NADK/NA

AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroat ia MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo Bosn ia andBosnia andBosnia andBosnia and


MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia

IN MoST CoUNTRIES, No INCREASE IN LIFE SATISFACTIoN ovER ThE PAST FoUR yEARS

If the top step is 10 and the bottom step is 0, on which step of the ladder would you say you person-

ally feel you stand at this time, assuming that the higher the step the better you feel about your life, and

the lower the step the worse you feel about it? Which step comes closest to the way you feel? (avgs

spss gv)

5.85.85.85.85.45.45.45.4 5.65.65.65.6 5.25.25.25.2

4.84.84.84.8

5.55.55.55.5

4.64.64.64.6

5.55.55.55.5 5.35.35.35.3 5.15.15.15.1

5.95.95.95.9

5.25.25.25.2 5.15.15.15.1 5.25.25.25.24.74.74.74.7 4.64.64.64.6 4.54.54.54.5 4.64.64.64.6

4.84.84.84.84.44.44.44.4 4.54.54.54.5 4.54.54.54.5 4.44.44.44.4 4.24.24.24.2

'06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10

CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroat ia MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSe rbia MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia

Federation Republika

Srpska


21/60

2010

21

Ater a lng peri in ic te western Balkan states ere ainl aiting r signals

rm Brussels tat te ul be ming clser t EU accessin, 2009 an 2010 -nall brugt cncrete steps. In december 2009, te EU lite te isa requirements

r tree western Balkan states: Mntenegr, Macenia an Serbia. Tis gae aclear message tat te western Balkans a nt been rgtten b te Eurpean

Unin a timel signal in a pase ere EU supprt as sll aing in man cun-tries te western Balkans, as te Balkan Monitoras bsere in past ears.

EU accession still supported but not so ervently

Dspt ths pstv dvpmt twds eU t-

gt, tds bk pputs stc eU

ccss hv t wd ptcu ptt

2010. F xmp, wh eU suppt ctud

t cs Mtg (m 67% 2009 t

73% 2010), t sustd ts dwwd td th

th tw cuts tht w y vs- tv:

th sh pp thkg eU ccss wud

gd thg m 62% t 60% Mcd

d m 50% t 44% S sc 2010.

Th eU yd stg s suppt m pp

bs d Hzgv th pst ys. Wh

2008 48% spdts thught tht ccdgt th eU wud gd thg th cuty, th

gu hd s t 69% 2010. Wh xmd t

tty v, ths s msty stms m stg m-

pvmt th eUs mg rpuk Spsk:

m m 31% tht supptd eU ccss

2008, th gu csd t 59% 2010. ov th

sm pd, eU suppt th bs Fdt

csd m 57% t 73%.

a sm pctu mgd Ct: suppt

th eU dcsd uth ths y wth ughy

thd (32%) spdts thkg tht eU c-

css wud d thg cmpd t 28%

2009. Futhm, th Balkan Monitor th

thd tm w ptd tht tv mty

Cts m dt t eU tgt wth

38% sg t s th gd d thg.

i a, stt tht shwd hgh vs sup-

pt th eU sc 2006, suts w tc-

y dt m th pst y; th sh -

spdts thkg tht eU ccss wud

gd thg dppd m 88% t 81% 2010.

i Ksv, th cuty wth tdty hgh

suppt th eU, th v suppt md

ughy uchgd.

Th spss t th qust vtg tts th vt eU ccss dum w

csstt tw 2009 d 2010: mts

bk stts, xcpt Ct, sd tht thy wud

vt Ys (gg m 63% S t 93%

a). i Ct wth th w v eU

suppt th ppt ths wh wud vt

n md hgh th ths wh wud vt

Ys (43% vs. 38%).

Puc pcpts gdg wht pp th

eU thught ut th cutys pspctv

anDrzejPYrKa

Attitudes toward the EU


22/60

2010

22

mmshp shwd tvy m vt cm-

pd t pvus ys. i 2010, spdts

Ksv d a hd th mst cdc tht

eU ctzs w supptv th ccss t

th U: 69% ( a) d 65% ( Ksv)

thught tht wy. Cvsy, Ss hv cm

ss cdt th pp th st th bk

stts wth ut 4 10 (41%) spdts g

tht pp th eU w sympthtc t Ss

eU tgt ( dcs 12 pctg pts

sc 2008).

Dspt th gtv stc twds eU ccs-

s, 2010, csg um Cts t

tht pp th eU ppvd th pspctv

mmshp th ppt spdts wh

sd tht eU ctzs wtd Ct t th eU

hs csd y 13 pctg pts sc 2009.

Ths dvpmt mght dct csquc

th d t Svs ckd Cts eU

tgt ts Sptm 2009, wg -

ts gtts ud th Sv-Ct

d dsput.

Little change in views concerningthe dates or EU accession exceptin Bosnia and Herzegovina

Ths ct dvpmts td t Sv-

Ct ts tht mvd th m

stcs Cts pth twds eU tg-

t hv t, hwv, md Cts xpct th

cuts eU ccss dt v s. Wh

2009, spdts Ct vg vd

tht 2013 wud th y whch thy wudt th U, 2010 th cmm ws

tht ccss wud y tk pc 2014. Th

sm y ws, vg, xpctd y as

s th cutys dt eU tgt; ths s-

sssmt ws t supsg sc a s t

y stg th eU ccss pcss d hs

t chvd th sttus g c cd-

dt cuty yt.

i mst bk cuts, th xpctts ud

th spd eU ccss hv md tv-

y uchgd: Mtg, pp vg

No CoNSISTENT PATTERN IN ThE LEvEL oF EU SUPPoRT

BUT BIG dECREASES IN ALBANIA ANd SERBIA

Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]s membership of the European Union would be a good

thing, a bad thing, or neither good or bad?


23/60

2010

23

vd tht th cuty wud 2016 wh

Ksv, Mcd d S th m x-

pctd ccss dt ws 2017. Th y cu-

ty wh xpctts shtd sgcty v th

pst y ws bs d Hzgv, wh th

vg dt ptt ty t th eU mvd

cs: m 2022 t 2018. it s ky tht pps

csg ptmsm ccg th eU tgt

pcss s kd t th vs st ssu. at

bs d Hzgv hd dd vs -

st th st ud 2009, th cuty md

gt pgss th d mp twds vs-

tv t th Schg z. as th Balkan Monitor

suts shw, ths dd t g utcd wth s-dts th cuty, wh w vd tht eU c-

css ws cmg cs.

Th Balkan Monitors skd spdts whch

eU mm stt thy pcvd s g th g-

gst suppt th cutys eU ccss.

Wh, Ksv d Ct, mts t mst

supptd y Gmy (31% d 27%, spctv-

y), Sv ws csdd t th mst sup-

pt y th pp Mcd d Mtg

(24% d 11%, spctvy). i ddt, ughy 3

10 spdts a vd tht ity

ws th ggst suppt th cutys ccs-

s t eU.

Ss, th th hd, sw Gc s th g-

gst suppt th ccss t th eU (38%

shd ths d). Ths pspctv s py t-

d th g hsty dy ts tw

th tw stts d Gcs ctug us t

cgs Ksv s dpdt stt. ath

cuty wh sgct um Ss (10%)

vd th ws csd suppt th

eU mmshp ws Sp whch hs t cg-

sd Ksv th.

Uk mst th th bk stts, spdts

m bs d Hzgv dd t hv -

vut: sm muts tvws (10%-12%)

mtd aust, Gmy d Sv s th

ggst suppts th eU mmshp. Th

ws sght dc pcpts t tty-v-

: wh th ggst sh pp rpuk

Spsk (9%) sw Gc s th ggst suppt-

eU ccss, spdts th Fdt

mst t mtd aust (18%). i th tts,

SERBIA ANd KoSovo FEELING ThAT FEwER EU CITIzENS wANT ThEM IN ThE UNIoN

Do you think that the people in the European Union want [COUNTRY] to join the European Union?

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51515151 52525252 5353535341414141

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777714141414

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2020202044444444

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23232323 32323232

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18181818 22222222 18181818 21212121

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2222222212121212 12121212 14141414

29292929 2626262617171717 21212121 17171717

1111111119191919 18181818 23232323

'06'06'06'06 '08'08'08'08 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '08'08'08'08 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '08'08'08'08 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '08'08'08'08 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '08'08'08'08 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '08'08'08'08 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '08'08'08'08 '10'10'10'10

Mostly yes Mostly not DK/NA

AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia Bosnia andBosnia andBosnia andBosnia and


SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia


24/60

2010

24

hwv, Gmy d Sv w mg th

mst quty md suppts bs eU

tgt.

Pps spss t th qust ut whch

eU mm stt ws th m ppt t th

cutys mmshp th U w s sug-

gstv th cut stt ts tw th

spctv stts. F xmp, 4 10 Cts

pcvd Sv, wth whm thy hv g

thugh d dsput tht hs t yt

uy svd, s th m ppt th eU

mmshp. Smy, Ss w th mst ct-

c th nthds pssy cus tht

cutys ct t Ss eU ccss uss

t uy cptd wth th itt Cm

Tu th m Yugsv (iCTY). o th

th hd, spdts Ksv md Sp

(33%), Gc d Cypus (th 11%), whch

hv dd cgt t Ksv, s th ggst

ppts t th tgt t th eU.

Fy, th Balkan Monitor suts shwd tht

stg mty Mcds (86%) t tht

Gc ws gst th mmshp ths cud

sy kd t th usvd m dsput

tw th tw cuts, wh Gc hs

thtd t ht Mcds eU mmshp

gtts.

BoSNIANS BECoMING MoRE oPTIMISTIC ABoUT EU

ACCESSIoN, ALBANIANS PERhAPS Too oPTIMISTIC

When, in which year do you think [COUNTRY] will be a part of the European Union?

2013201320132013

2015201520152015

20172017201720172016201620162016

2017201720172017

2016201620162016

2022202220222022

20142014201420142014201420142014

20162016201620162017201720172017 2017201720172017 2017201720172017

2018201820182018

CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania A lban ia MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia Bosnia andBosnia andBosnia andBosnia and


2009 2010


25/60


26/60

2010

26

despite te eisting srtalls an material prblems, it can be seen as real prgress

tat te western Balkan regin is sll becming, since te arme cnfict in Mace-nia in 2001, anter bring part Eurpe, as recentl state b analst heater

Grabbe.5 weter tis is a success te EUs stabilising plicies r nt, it is a majrstep rar r te peple te regin, can lie itut imminent ear cn-

fict. Neerteless, te callenges remain great: te Balkan cuntries are still cnsi-ere as eak states an as bsere b te Balkan Monitorin past ears man

te regins natinal institutins ae a lng a t g in rer t earn te trust teir cuntries resients.

Trust in politicians and the abilityto express political views openly

rgdg th tds pps stsct

wth th stt gvmt, vy mxd pctu

mgd th Wst bk g: wh

a, Ksv d Mtg tv mts

48% ppvd th spctv ds,

th cuts ths dsppvg th gv-

mts pmc utumd ths wh p-

pvd. Wh, Mcd, ppv ws st qut

hgh (41%) d y sght mty (51%) dsp-

pvd, dshp ssssmt ws much hsh S, Ct d bs d Hzgv: y

ud -th spdts supptd th

ds wh m th tw-thds dsppvd.1

a ws th y cuty th g wh

dshp ppv hs wd pstv td

sc th st Balkan Monitor suvy 2006;

gvmt ppv tht cuty s y 17

5 Consult http://ecr.eu/page/-/audio/Balkanre-

portpod.mp3, an audio podcast by the European Council on

Foreign Relations.

pctg pts v th u ys. i th m-

g cuts, ppv tgs th md -

tvy st (Ksv, Mtg, Mcd d

bs d Hzgv) dcsd (S d

Ct). Th ppv t dshp hs

dcd stgy Ct, wh t hs dppd

y 27 pctg pts sc 2006.

Th w, hwv, pstv sgs tht th -

tshp bk ctzs twds th pt-

c css s cmg m ccty. Fm th

Balkan Monitorpspctv, mst cuts, th

ctt w m pstd y ptcs ptc pty. Wh dug th Monitors st

suvy 2006, th shs spdts tht t

w pstd y ptc ptc pty y

gd m 20% (Ct) t 36% (Mtg)

d tv mts vywh dd t thy

w pstd, m dmctc pctu hs

mgd 2010. i cuts, xcpt S,

m pp w ptcy pstd th

thy dd 2006. Ths g ws spcy p-

ucd a (60% t ptcy pst-

d), Ksv (54%) d Mtg (46%), wh

anDrzejPYrKa

Satisfaction and confidence inthe regions institutions


27/60

2010

27

SoME PRoGRESS BUT MANy PEoPLE STILL FEEL ThEy

ARE NoT REPRESENTEd PoLITICALLy

As of today, is there a political party or a politician in [COUNTRY/ENTITY] that represents your political

views?

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64646464 60606060

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4545454555555555 54545454

36363636 4040404041414141 46464646

24242424

38383838 42424242 3333333326262626

14141414 17171717

3232323220202020

31313131 36363636 30303030 3232323224242424 20202020

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4848484849494949

29292929 36363636

47474747

4545454539393939 36363636

4545454549494949

51515151 43434343

70707070

57575757 52525252 64646464

6161616178787878

78787878

65656565

71717171

6363636359595959

62626262 57575757 71717171 7676767668686868

1919191912121212

7777 4444

24242424

10101010 7777 1010101019191919

11111111 7777 121212126666 5555 6666 3333

131313137777 5555 3333 9999 6666 5555 8888 11111111

6666 4444 4444

'06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10

Yes No DK/NA

AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia Bosnia andBosnia andBosnia andBosnia and


CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia

such pstv g mg spdts ut-

wghd ths wh t th ptc vws w -

g gd. i th cuts, hwv, ud

tw-thds st dd t ptcy pstd.

rgdg th ssu ptc xpss, th

dvpmt svd y Gup suvys th -

g pts sg pctu. lg shs -

spdts thughut th g (tw 32%

Ksv d 64% Mtg) t tht many

most th cmptts were afraid to openly ex-

press their political views. i sm cuts, th

g mtd dm xpss pt-c ssus hs v gw cty, s svd

Mtg (m 50% t 64% sc 2006), Ct

(41% t 47%), a (14% t 38%) d Ksv

(17% t 32%). S d bs d Hzgv

w th y cuts wh t ws w s t

xpss ptc vws: th sh pp sttg

tht th vwno one was afraidt vc pt-

c p s, ths tw cuts, m 8% t

16% d m 11% t 16%, spctvy, tw

2006 d 2010.

Trust in internal and external institu-

tions still a mixed picture

o th Wst bks pth twds cmg

uctg mkt dmccs, t s cuc tht

t sttuts st cdc th ctzs

th g. Pst wvs th Balkan Monitor

shwd tht wh, mst cuts, th chuch

d th mty w tustd t y mst sp-

dts, stt sttuts st hd g wy t g

d t th tust ctzs. it c sd

mst sttuts mst cuts tht c-

dc vs hv th st v th pstth ys; th t xt sttuts

such s tt gsts hv t suc-

cdd udg up tust mg th pp th

g.

Th suvy shwd tht th mst tustd sttu-

ts a w xt: mst 8 10 -

spdts sttd tht thy hd a lot some c-

dc naTo. Th md ws s mg th

m tustd sttuts wth 68% a t-

vws shwg tust. i g, cdc vs


28/60

2010

28

SERBIA ANd BoSNIA ANd hERzEGovINA REPoRTING

INCREASING FREEdoM oF PoLITICAL ExPRESSIoN

In your opinion, how many people in your country, if any, are afraid to openly express their political views?

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2020202032323232 30303030

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20202020 21212121 19191919 1717171712121212 11111111

171717176666

17171717 19191919 151515158888 9999

1818181811111111

23232323 19191919

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20202020

25252525 26262626

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8888

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30303030

30303030 35353535 38383838

31313131

34343434

33333333

29292929

5555 1717171712121212

888815151515

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13131313 11111111 888814141414 14141414 16161616 11111111 17171717

15151515 1717171718181818 20202020 23232323

17171717

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22222222 17171717 17171717

24242424

3434343417171717

23232323

171717178888 7777 4444 4444 4444 5555 6666 6666 4444 8888 11111111 7777

5555 5555 10101010 9999 66663333

171717176666 7777 7777

28282828

8888 11111111 16161616

'06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10

Most are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid No one is afraid DK/NA

MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia Bosnia andBosnia andBosnia andBosnia and


CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo

hv md st sc 2008. Th udc sys-

tm ws th y dy wh th pps v

cdc hd dppd: y 13 pctg pts

tw 2009 d 2010.

i bs d Hzgv, th th m thc

gups shwd c dcs th cdc

ps. Dspt stg dp th sh p-

p tht tustd th gus sttuts, thy -

md th mst tustd ds bs Ss

d bs Cts (cdc dppd, spc-

tvy, m 89% 2008 t 67% 2010, d m

85% t 65%). amg bsks, th mty std

mst cdc wth 70% xpssg some alot of confidence tht dy; gus sttuts

w tustd y 53% spdts. Cdc

th t gvmt s m 27% 2008 t

36% 2010 mg bs Ss, whch md

ths gup th bs d Hzgv wth

mst tust th stt gvmt. F bsks

(30% hd cdc th t gvmt)

d bs Cts (19%) th d gvmt

md mg th st tustd sttuts. M

sdts th bs Fdt hd cdc

eU sttuts (49% mg bsks d 43%

mg bs Cts) th pp rpuk

Spsk (31%). it ws t tht mg bs

Cts, g dp sttut cdc

cud svd v th pst th ys, wh

cdc vs mg bsks hv md

ughy th sm.

Sm t mst cuts th g, Cts x-

pssd mst tust twds th mty d -

gus gsts 83% tustd th mty d

64% hd tust th chuch. Ct spdts

w th y Wst bk sdts t shw

gwg v tust th udcy: wh 2008,

25% Cts xpssd cdc th cuts,th gu hs s t 44% 2010. Cts v

cdc th t gvmt ms t

tvy w 26%.

i cmps t th gups th g,

Ksv as shwd uusuy hgh vs

cdc sttuts: 91% tustd th mty,

84% tustd th gus gsts d 79%

hd cdc th eU sttuts. Cdc

vs md th st, wth tw t x-

cpts; sc 2009, cdc th t


29/60

2010

29

dEvELoPMENT oF CoNFIdENCE IN INSTITUTIoNS

In [COUNTRY], do you have confidence in each of the following, or not?

ALBANIA

BIh

BoSNIAKS

BIh

CRoATS

BIh SERBS


30/60

2010

30

dEvELoPMENT oF CoNFIdENCE IN INSTITUTIoNS (CoNTINUEd)

In [COUNTRY], do you have confidence in each of the following, or not?

CRoATIA

KoSovo

ALBANIANS

KoSovo

SERBS

MoNTE-

NEGRo


31/60

2010

31

MACEdoNIA

ALBANIANS

MACEdoNIA

MACEdoNIANS

SERBIA

gvmt d th udc systm hs dppd

sgcty (m 67% t 44% d m 58% t

38% spctvy).

Tust vs mg th S pt th Ksv

pput w stk ctst t th a

pt: th y ds tht hd th cdc

mty spdts w th gus g-

sts wth 76% Ksv Ss xhtg such

tust. a th Ksv sttuts such s th m-

ty, th gvmt d th udc systm y

std cdc sm mty ss th 1

10 th Ksv S pput.


32/60

2010

32

IMPoRTANCE oF RELIGIoN

Is religion an important part of your daily life? (% ys)

Mcds d mms th gst m-

ty Mcd, th as, hv sghty ds-

tct ps wh t cms t cdc st-

tuts. Mst Mcd Svs hd cdc

th mty d gus gsts. o th

th hd, naTo ws th mst tustd sttut

Mcd as, ust s t ws th th-

a gups Ksv d a, wth th

eU chg hgh vs cdc mg th-

c as s w. ov cdc vs hv

dcsd th thc gups Mcd:

mg Mcd Svs, th v tust th

gvmt, th md d udc systm hv

dcsd sc 2008 (m 63% 2008 t 41%

2010, m 62% t 46%, d m 40% t 32%,

spctvy). amg Mcd as, wh

cdc th stt sttuts hs tdd t

t s pucd s wth Mcds, th

hs stg dp tust th gvmt

d cuts tw 2009 d 2010. Cdc

th gvmt m 50% t 16% ust

y (tw 2009 d 2010) d tust th ud-

cy dppd m 47% t 17% th sm pd.

i 2010, g wth Ksv as, spdts

Mtg ptd th hghst vs c-

dc sttuts, wth vs mg st

sc 2008. Th t gvmt Mtg

ws y th mst tustd th Wst bks,

26% spdts sttd tht thy tustd ta lot

d 44% xpssdsome cdc. ov c-

dc vs hv csd, thugh th pst

th ys, csgy w pp hv

sttd tht thy hda lot tust y thsttuts mtd d m pp sd

tht thy y hdsome tust.

i S, gus gsts d th m-

ty hv md th mst tustd gs-

ts, d ths vs cdc hv -

md st sc 2008. it s tstg t

t, hwv, tht th pst th ys, th

mty hs pcd th chuch s th cu-

tys mst tustd sttut: tust hs dppd

th tt m 75% t 66% th pst tw

ys, wh tust th m hs s m

63% t 77% tht pd. Tust th md,

th udc systm d th t gv-

mt s w t sgcty w v (-

tw 35% d 41% spdts S

shwd cdc ths sttuts) d

hs dcsg ty. Tust th eU

sttuts hs md th st sc

2008 wth ut 4 10 spdts xpss-

g cdc thm th wh t tt

sups cdc naTo ms th w-

st th g wth pp st mm-g th mty gsts ttcks gst

S th Ksv cfct 1999.

Religion just as important or not?

i th ght th dcg tust gus g-

sts my th suvyd cuts y-

ss th Balkan Monitorqusts ut pps

tshp wth msqus d chuchs shud

t thw t ght th vut -

gus th Wst bks.


33/60

2010

33

Th hs um dvpmt ud

th th g. rg hs gd mptc

s part of daily life as Ksv (th

sh ths csdg t t an important part

of daily life wt up m 68% 2009 t 89%

2010), Mcd (91% t 97%) d a (m

33% t 44%) d spdts Mtg

(m 46% t 60%). it hs s md ctc

Mcd Svs d Cts, wh m-

ts ud tw-thds spdts sd tht

g ws mptt spct th dy vs.

i bs d Hzgv, tw ppsd tds

cud svd: wh w bsks w c-

sdd g t mptt pt th vs

(49% vs. 63% 2006), m bs Ss d

bs Cts sttd tht g ws mptt

t thm (t 81% vs. 59% 2006 d t 79% m

65% 2006, spctvy)


34/60

2010

34

It is state in eer reprt abut te western Balkan regin, be it a prgress assess-

ment b te Eurpean Cmmissin r an analsis b a tink tank: perasie crimean crruptin are keeping te regins cuntries rm eelping int ull unctinal

market emcracies an prgressing quicker tars Eurpean integratin. Strnglinks beteen criminal netrks an plitical actrs get in te a te implementa-

tin ar-reacing anti-crruptin rerms, ile te principles g gernancecannt take rt in a regin ere businesses ten prt rm eak states an s-

unctinal institutins. Against tis backrp, te electin I Jsipic as presi-ent Cratia in Januar 2010, ater a campaign empasiing is anti-crruptin

erts, as an imprtant signal r te western Balkans. It seems like citiens aree up it te lack integrit amng te ruling classes an are beginning t bring

rt cange ia te ballt b. Te Balkan Monitoras been tracking tese latesteelpments peples sentiments an eperiences arun rganise crime an

crruptin.

Levels o perceivedcorruption in government andbusinesses remain high

athugh cuts cvd y th suvy t

st h th ctzs thught tht cupt ws

wdspd thughut th gvmt s w s

wth th usss wd, th shs sp-dts ptg ths dd sustty css th

Wst bks.

Wh Ksv m th 9 10 (91%) sp-

dts thught tht gvmt cupt ws

wdspd th cuty, h tvws

Mtg hd ths vw. Th mst dmt-

c chg hs tk pc Ksv, wh th

sh ths vg tht th gvmt ws

cupt hs csd y ght pctg pts

cmpd t th st wv 2009. Mwh,

Mcd th t spdts dsgg

wth th sttmt tht gvmt cupt

ws cmm phm th cuty hs

y u pctg pts (t 13%). a pp-

st dvpmt ws gstd a, bs

d Hzgv d S, wh th ppt

pp ssumg cupt t wdspd

thughut th gvmt hs sghty (3-4pctg pts). Wth bs d Hzgv

th ws stkg dc th pcpt

gvmt cupt tw th tw bs

tts: wh th Fdt 93% spdts

w cvcd tht cupt ws cmm t

th gvmt v, th cspdg gu

rpuk Spsk ws t 71%. i th cut su-

vy, qut Mtgs sd tht gv-

mt cupt ws t pvt th cuty

cy th hghst pctg th g ( -

cs 8 pctg pts cmpd t 2009).

SloboDan

PHiliPoViC

Perceptions of corruption andorganised crime


35/60

2010

35

i Ct, vws ut th v cupt

gvmt hv styd tvy st; 89% sd

t ws wdspd.

a ws th cuty wh usss cupt

ws st t csdd t wdspd (56%),

wd y Mtg (64%). Hwv, sp-

dts ths cuts w s th mst k-

y t sy thy did not know t us t sw

(19% d 18% spctvy). Ct spdts

w th mst ky t v tht cupt ws

cmm pctc wth th cutys ussss

CoRRUPTIoN IN GovERNMENT

Is corruption widespread throughout the government in [COUNTRY], or not?

9090909096969696 93939393

6868686879797979

71717171

84848484 8383838391919191

7777777787878787 89898989

71717171

84848484 8181818174747474 69696969 70707070 73737373 73737373 69696969

49494949 50505050 50505050

'06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10

Yes

Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia A lbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro


Srpska

CoRRUPTIoN IN BUSINESS

Is corruption widespread within businesses located in [COUNTRY], or not?

8383838392929292 93939393

8282828291919191 88888888 86868686 90909090 87878787

7272727282828282 85858585 86868686 79797979 74747474

66666666 69696969 6464646468686868 67676767

56565656

'06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10

Yes

CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia Bosnia andBosnia andBosnia andBosnia andHerzegovinaHerzegovinaHerzegovinaHerzegovina KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro A lbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania


36/60

2010

36

(93%). Th mst t chg th pst y

ws gstd a: th sh suvy p-

tcpts vg wdspd usss cup-

t hs y 11 pctg pts. Sm d-

vpmts tk pc S d bs d

Hzgv (dw th 3 pctg pts),

Mcd d Mtg (th mus 5 pct-

g pts). Ksv, hwv, sw sght cs

th um spdts vg tht cup-

t ws pvt mg ussss ( cs

3 pts t 85%).

LESS NEEd To oFFER BRIBE IN MoST CoUNTRIES

Sometimes people have to give a bribe or a present in order to solve their problems. In the last 12

months, were you, personally, faced with this kind of situation, or not (regardless of whether you gave a

bribe/present or not)?

52525252 49494949

1212121218181818 16161616 11111111

2020202013131313

1919191913131313

1818181812121212 8888 10101010

202020209999

'09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10

Yes

AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo

RepublikaSrpska

Federation

PEoPLE STILL FEEL ThE EFFECTS oF oRGANISEd CRIME, BUT

wITh ThE ExCEPTIoN oF ALBANIA LESS oFTEN

Does the organised crime in [COUNTRY] affect you personally?

26262626 2222222232323232

22222222 1919191911111111 10101010

17171717 14141414 11111111 10101010 11111111 14141414 9999 10101010 7777

41414141

21212121

48484848

44444444

26262626

3030303022222222

18181818 24242424

1414141427272727 23232323

26262626

17171717

32323232

19191919

28282828

53535353

18181818

33333333

51515151 58585858

5858585860606060 56565656

68686868

58585858 6060606057575757

69696969

54545454

69696969

5555 4444 444410101010 5555 6666 7777

5555 6666 4444 4444 5555

'09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10 '09'09'09'09 '10'10'10'10

Yes, it affects me in daily life Yes, it affects me occasionally

No, it does not affect me DK/NA

KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroat ia MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro


Srpska


37/60

2010

37

A positive trend in sel-reported pet-ty corruption

i cuts suvyd xcpt Ct, th

2010 suvy dtctd dp th sh ths

tvws wh hd ctd wth c-

ct xmp cupt, mg tht thy hd

csdd offering a bribe or present to solve their

problems th pst y. Th mst pstv dv-

pmts tk pc Ksv, wh th pp-

t spdts ptg ths y 11 pct-

g pts (t 9%), Mcd (mus 7 pts t

13%), Mtg d S (th dw 6 ptst 13% d 12%, spctvy). a ws g

th cuty wth th mst spdts wh hd

hd t gv , dspt sghty pstv td:

49% sd tht thy hd cd such stut (m-

us 3 pctg pts) d 48% sttd tht thy

hd t (pus 7 pctg pts). Ct gus

w st. a ppsd dvpmt cud

svd th tw bs tts: rpuk

Spsk, spdts ptd m t tht thy

hd gd t (m 12% t 18% -

spdts tw 2009 d 2010), wh th

bs Fdt ths gu dcsd m 16%

t 11% th sm pd.

Personal lives now less oten aect-ed by organised crime

Wth th xcpt as, spdts

css th Wst bks t ss quty -

ctd y gsd cm th thy hd 2009.

i Ksv, xmp, 21% spdts sd

thy w ctd dy d 22% sd g-

sd cm ctd thm ccsy vs. gus

26% d 41%, spctvy, 2009. i a,th sh spdts syg tht th dy vs

w gtvy ctd s y sv pctg

pts (t 17%), wth th sh ths g c-

csy ctd g y u pts (t 18%).

Organised crime persists and many governments still lack the will tofght

a ws th y cuty suvyd wh

pp w m ky t sy tht th v

MoST CoUNTRIES doNT SEE ovERALL IMPRovEMENT REGARdING oRGANISEd CRIME

Do you think the level of organised crime in this country is lower, about the same, or higher than it was

5 years ago?

3535353524242424

1818181812121212 11111111 11111111

555510101010

31313131

3838383843434343

4040404047474747

56565656

33333333

41414141

16161616 2222222230303030

42424242 27272727

29292929

5858585841414141

18181818 161616169999 7777

151515154444 4444 8888

Level is lower Level is about the same Level is higher DK/NA

AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedonia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina Croat iaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia

Republika

Srpska

Federation


38/60

2010

38

gsd cm ws w w cmpd t th

stut v ys p t th suvy th t cm

th ppst (35% vs.16%). o th th hd, th

hghst sh spdts syg tht th v

gsd cm ws hgh th v ys g ws

ud bs d Hzgv (47%), wd

t sm dstc y S (42%) d Ct

(41%). Wh xmg th bs suts cs,

t c sd tht th dtmt stut ud

gsd cm ws msty ptd th bs

Fdt: wh ths tty 58% sttd tht th

v gsd cm hd s v th v ys

th suvy, rpuk Spsk m 29%

w such p.

Wh ut 4 10 spdts Mtg,

Mcd d a sd tht th gvmt

ws dg vythg ts pws t ght gsd

cm, ss th v tvws Ct

d bs d Hzgv hd ths vw (17%

d 15%, spctvy). imptt pstv dv-

pmts tk pc Mtg, a d

Ct th tt cuty, xmp, th sh

spdts dsstsd wth th gvmts

ts t cmt gsd cm dppd m y

14 pctg pts t 66% sc 2009. Th p-

pst ws tu Mcd: h, m pp

w dsstsd wth th t gvmts

t-cupt ts; th sh ths stsd

dppd 9 pctg pts sc 2008 t 40%

2010.


39/60

2010

39

Te great appeal ecnmic (rk-relate) migratin r te ppulatins te

western Balkans bears bt a risk an an pprtunit r te regins eelpment.on te ne an, it is ten te mst-eucate an te brigtest tat leae teir

cuntries t lk r better pprtunities in western Eurpe r te Unite States. Teme cuntries ten miss teir talents at a time scietal transrmatin en te

ul be neee mst. on te ter an, it a limite eucatinal inrastructure inte regin, it can be elpul i Balkan citiens leae t gain knlege an rk e-

perience abra bere returning t teir me cuntries at sme pint t transer teknlege te ae acquire. Since te ecnmic crisis as iminise rk p-

prtunities in sme te traitinal st cuntries Balkan migrants, tis is certaint ae a strng eect n te migratin plans western Balkan resients.

Relative majorities, at least,want to remain in the Balkans

as pst wvs th Balkan Monitor, th cu-

t suvy shwd tht mts spdts

cuts xcpt Ct d Ksv w

cvcd, 2010, tht th w better oppor-

tunities outside th cuts. Futhm, v

ths tw tt cuts, ths pp thkg

tht tt cud ud d utum-

d ths wh sw qu tt pptuts

t hm. it ws stkg, hwv, tht spdts

a d Ksv, tdty th Wstbk cuts wh pp w mst g t

mgt, w w much ss ky t s tt

pptuts d th thy w 2006. i tht

tmm, th spctv sh spdts

m 66% t 52% a d m 72% t 48%

Ksv. a ppst td ws s Ct

d Mtg, wh gwg ppt

pp w w cvcd tht pptuts w

tt d. i ust tw ys, th sh hs s

38% t 52% Mtg d m 31% t 48%

Ct. i th mg cuts Mcd,

bs d Hzgv d S m th

h spdts sw tt chcs d;

hdy chgd (3-4 pctg pts) sc 2009.

Th hgh v spdts sg mtd p-

ptuts th w cuts tsts t

tvy hgh wgss pp wg t mv

d t ty th uck. Th mst pp wth m-

gt wshs c ud a, wh

42% (up m 32% 2006) sttd tht dy, thy

wud k t mv t th cuty. i Mcd

d Ksv, ughy -thd spdts

cud mg mvg t th cuty, wh Mtg, bs d Hzgv d S

ths sh ws ud -th spdts. Th

smst ppt pp tmptd t g d

ws s Ct wth y 13% spdts

wshg t mgt.

it shud, hwv, td tht wh spd-

ts sd tht ideallythy wshd t mv d

(mg tht, xmp, th w ts t

my d ds d th spdt hd ugh

my t c th mv) tht dd t wys

Dejan

abrilo

Migration and mobility


40/60

2010

40

d t ths spdts hvg cct mg-

t ps. Ths c usttd y ct Gup

sch udtk th Utd Kgdm, wh

smy hgh 30% spdts sd tht thy

wud dy k t v th cuty wsh tht

ws y sd y mty ths wh sttd

such wsh t mv d.

i d t uth vstgt hw cct pps

dss t v th cuts w, th BalkanMonitor wd up th qusts ut mg-

t wth ss qusts tg t whth

pp hd cct ds d ps ccg

such mv. F xmp, pp wh sd thy

wshd t mgt, d cud m th tdd

dstt w skd whth thy thught thy

wud mvg d pmty th y

wg th suvy. Th spss t ths qus-

t shwd tht much sm ums Wst

bk sdts w ctuy dy t v th

cuts th sht tm. F xmp, th 42%

as syg tht dy thy wud k t

v th cuty, y 14% hd cct ps t

mv d pmty. Th ppts w

v w th Wst bk cuts.61

extptd t th pput gd 15 ys

d (th g gup ddssd y th Balkan

Monitor ) th suvy gus gv d th -

gs mgt ptt. bsd tt Wst

bk pput 18.7 m (gd 15 d

v), ughy 344,000 sdts hv cctps t v th cuty permanently th y

t th tvws (s chts w). a hd

th mst htts dy t v permanent-

ly wth ud 140,000 hvg cct ps t

v a th 12 mths t th tvw

tk pc. F th mg cuts, th vs

6 To consult these and related data please consult

worldview.gallup.com, the dashboard o the Gallup WorldPoll.

The World Poll is a survey undertaken every year by Gallup in

more than 130 countries worldwide in national representative

samples. You can sign up or trial access to the dashboardree o charge.

IN ALBANIA ANd KoSovo, MoRE oPPoRTUNITIES Now SEEN AT hoME

Based on the current conditions in our country, which of the following statements best reflects your opin-

ion? For people like yourself,

66666666

54545454 5555555560606060

6767676758585858

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5858585851515151 50505050 49494949 52525252

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3838383845454545

52525252

66666666 64646464 6161616152525252

3737373731313131

45454545 48484848

72727272 7373737364646464

48484848

24242424

36363636 38383838 2929292923232323

32323232 41414141 4444444423232323

31313131 3131313131313131

37373737 39393939 39393939 33333333 25252525

4949494943434343

3939393920202020 23232323 27272727

32323232

4747474753535353

44444444 36363636

1414141417171717

27272727

40404040

3333 66664444

6666 4444 33333333 3333

7777 11111111 111111118888 6666 8888 7777 10101010 5555 4444

55559999 7777 12121212 7777 11111111 4444

151515153333

3333 77777777 4444 4444 5555 6666 7777 4444 6666 3333 4444 3333 6666 3333 5555 5555

171717178888 7777 4444 12121212

5555 6666 4444 8888 5555 8888 11111111 88886666 5555

'06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 ' 06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10 '06'06'06'06'08'08'08'08'09'09'09'09'10'10'10'10

DK/NA

... there are more opportunities in this country than in any other country

... there are as many opportunities in this country as in any other country

... there are better opportunities outside this country

Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina MacedoniaMacedoniaMacedoniaMacedon ia SerbiaSerbiaSerbiaSerbia MontenegroMontenegroMontenegroMontenegro AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Albania CroatiaCroatiaCroatiaCroatia KosovoKosovoKosovoKosovo


Srpska


41/60


42/60

2010

42

MoST PoPULAR MIGRATIoN dESTINATIoNS

To which country would you like to move? bs: ths wh wud dy k t mv t th cu-

ty, tp 5 spss


43/60

2010

43

Germany leads the way as an in-tended destination but not or all

Th w gt dcs th dstts

tht pp wud ideally k t mgt t. Wh

Gmy ws th mst ppu tgt pp

bs d Hzgv (mtd y 29%

ths wshg t v), Ksv (25%), Mcd

(19%) d Ct (16%), spdts a

w mst ttctd y ity (32%). i Mtg,th Utd Stts ws th mst ppu dst-

t (mtd y 17% pp wth ds t

mgt), csy wd y Gmy d ity.

itvws S hd c vut mg

tgt cuts, ut mst t sttd tht thy t

ttctd y Swd (12%) wth Gmy (11%) s

cs-up scd vut.

Albanians and Bosnians bothdivided over the impact o visa

liberalisation

Th shmt vs qumts

Wst bk ctzs tvg twds

th Schg hs s much pg-

ss sc th puct th 2009

Balkan Monitorsuts. i st ud, vs

st ws tducd ctzs

Mcd, Mtg d S

Dcm 2009. nw, wg m-

stps wd th cssy tv-

-td ms a d bsd Hzgv d pstv vts th

eup Pmt d th eUs Cuc

Msts, vs- tv s xpctd

t cm t ths cuts Dcm

2010. Wh tht stp s gy wtd

th stts, spdts th cuts

w dvdd v th qust whth

s tv twds th Schg z

wud d t mss mgt. i a,

mst 4 10 (39%) spdts vd

tht mgt wud cs stgy wth

th 37% vg tht t wud y -

cs t mtd xtt. a sm pctu

mgd bs d Hzgv, wh

-thd (33%) spdts thught tht th

wud g cs th ums pp

mgtg d. Ths w sghty utumd

y 4 10 spdts xpctg such mgt

wy m bs d Hzgv t y cs

t mtd xtt.

Wth th a d bs d Hzgv -

cty hvg gtd vs- tv th utu, th y Wst bk pp qu-

g vss t t th Schg z wud th

sdts Ksv. Much hs wtt ut

th dtmt cts stg Ksvs -

spct t tv ghts, ut s , th hv

c sttmts y eU cs gdg u-

tu dvpmts ths spct. Th ct tht

mpss ws fctd th spss suvy

No dEFINITE oPINIoN ABoUT ThE

IMPACT oF vISA LIBERALISATIoN IN

EIThER ALBANIA oR BoSNIA

What do you expect will happen after the introduction

of visa-free travel for Albania/Bosnia and Herzegovina?

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AlbaniaAlbaniaAlbaniaAlbania Bosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and HerzegovinaBosnia and Herzegovina

DK/NAEmigration will remain the sameEmigration will increase somewhatEmigration will increase strongly


44/60


45/60

2010

45

Lcate n a territr nl sligtl larger tan tat te UK an cmpse a

ttal ppulatin abut 25 millin, te western Balkan cuntries cntain a strikingnumber latent cnficts. Etnic tensins itin Bsnia an heregina, gencie

cases beteen Serbia an Cratia bere te Internatinal Curt Justice, te cn-fict arun Kss inepenence, Macenias name ispute it Greece an

man mre: it seems unlikel tat te regin ill be able t erase all its trublespts in te near uture. But prgress is sll becming isible: it te aent a

mre merate class pliticians in man cuntries an te recent rapprcementbeteen te leaers Cratia an Serbia, tere are ig pes tat a ne breee

bringing impre cperatin an interetnic relatins migt be bling acrss tewestern Balkans. Een r te mst prgressie leaers, eer, it ill be icult

t pursue recnciliatr plicies gien te strng sentiments relate t etnicit annatinalit tat are eepl rte in te mins man western Balkan resients.

at st gt stp wd hs md

th g th pst dcd: sc 2001, m

md cfct hs tk pc d pp th

gud sm t g wth ysts tht such

utcm s uky th utu. askd whth-

thy xpctd w t k ut th v ys

t cm, g mts m 62% (S) t88% (Ct) css cuts w certainly

probablycvcd tht md cfct ws

t xpctd ytm s. Th shs sp-

dts g tht w ws t ky hv gw

cuts xcpt S d Ksv sc

2006. i ths tw cuts, th ppt -

spdts thkg tht th wud t w

th utu hs dcsd y ght pct-

g pts t 62% S d y tw pts t

68% Ksv. a mk dvpmt ws

s bs d Hzgv wh ust

y tw 2009 d 2010 th sh -

spdts g certain tht th sk w ws t

mmt wt up m 27% t 49%. Tht ms

tht ut 8 10 (81%) bss d t xpct

md cfct s. Th w ws th hgh-

st Mcd d S wh 28% d 24%

spdts, spctvy, hd tprobable cer-tain tht th wud md cfct.

Wh bk sdts w s ss pss-

ty md cfct, ths hs t ts-

td t ds gt cpt tw

th bk ghus. Wh cuts, x-

cpt Mtg, tv mts sd tht th

cutys ghuy ts wnot strong enough,

ths ppts hv t gwg vy-

wh pst ys. i a d Ksv, th

sh spdts dg ghuy ts

Balkan challenges: ethnicrelations and the future of theregion


46/60

2010

46

LITTLE BELIEF IN ThE PoSSIBILITy oF wAR IN ThE REGIoN

Looking at the next five years, do you think there is a chance that there will be an armed conflict some-

where in the Balkans?

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balkanmonitor-2010 summary of findings

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