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Baku, 2013

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2 Real Time Delphi

2012 - 2013

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Advances 73% Versions in English and Spanish

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2 C o n t e s t s :

• 1 5 V i d e o g a m e s p r o d u c ti o n

• P l a y e r s

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FUTURES ROOM Presidency Office

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MEXICAN POLITICAL SITUATIONM E X I C A N P A C T

95 commitments

5 S T R U C T U R A L R E F O R M S . E d u c a ti o n , L a b o u r, Te l e c o m m u n i c a ti o n s ,

E n e r g y a n d F i s c a l

F U T U R E S R O O M , P R E S I D E N C Y o f t h e R E P U B L I C

1. S t a t e o f t h e F u t u r e I n d e x

2. I m p a c t s a n d R i s k s o f t h e M e x i c a n P a c t

3. G l o b a l F u t u r e s I n t e l l i g e n c e S y s t e m

National Energy Strategy

2013-2027

Structure

The ENE 2013-2027 takes as its starting point the role that the energy sector should play in supporting the growth and economic and social development of the country,

promotes the social inclusion of the population in the benefits arising from the use of energy,

long-term sustainability of the sector

and mitigate the harmful impacts of energy production and consumption may have on health and the environment.

National Energy Strategy

2013-2027

Structure

Strategic objectives

GDP GrowthEnergy for economic growth

Social inclusion Energy for all

GDP growth

Social Inclusion

Structure

Integration elements

System renovation

Environmental and energy efficiency

Best practices with least environmental impact

Sustainability

Energy security

Energy sufficiency

GDP growth

Social Inclusion

Policy measures

Unify and consolidate infraestructure

Refining Processing and generation

Strengthen transformation capacity

Transport, storage and distribution

Oil productionSustainable production for the long run

Energy Transition

Natural gas for the energy transition

Structure

GDP growth

Social Inclusion

• Energy for economic growth

• Energy transition

• Keep a surplus of energy

Expected outputs

Security

• Reduce energy intensity

• Unify and strengthen the energy infrastructure

• To ensure the integrity and efficiency in facilities

Efficiency

• Inclusive development

• Supporting disadvantaged populations

• Reducing the carbon footprint of the sector

Sustainability

Energy for development Energy for all

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T H E F U T U R E S O F WO M E N ’ S L EA D E R S H I P A G A I N S T T R A N S N AT I O N A L O R G A N I Z E D C R I M E

S c e n a r i o s 2 0 3 5

S t ra te g i e s a n d a c ti o n s t o p r e v e n t c r i m e fo r p e o p l e ’s w e l fa r e w o r l d w i d e

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M e x i c a n S e n a t eT h e N a ti o n i s fi r s t

A M O N G I N D I V I D U A L S A S A M O N G N A T I O N S T H E R I G H T S R E S P E C T O F O T H E R S I S P E A C E

T H E N A T I O N I S F I R S T .

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Transnational Organized Crime 19 crime types

1. C o u n t e r f e i ti n g 1 1 . M i g r a n t s m u g g l i n g

2. C o r r u p ti o n 1 2 . M o n e y l a u n d e r i n g

3 . C r e d i t c a r d f r a u d 1 3 . M u r d e r f o r h i r e

4 . C y b e r c r i m e s 1 4 . N u c l e a r m a t e r i a l s t r a ffi c k i n g

5 . D r u g t r a ffi c k i n g 1 5 . P e o p l e ’ s t r a ffi c k i n g

6 . E n v i r o n m e n t a l c r i m e s 1 6 . P i r a c y

7 . E x t o r ti o n 1 7 . S m u g g l i n g

8 . H a z a r d o u s c h e m i c a l t r a ffi c k i n g 1 8 . Te r r o r i s m

9 . H u m a n o r g a n s t r a ffi c k i n g 1 9 . W e a p o n s t r a ffi c k i n g

1 0 . K i d n a p p i n g

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T T R A N S N A T I O N A L O R G A N I Z E D C R I M E M A I N C O U N T R I E S

1. U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a2. C h i n a3. M e x i c o4. S p a i n5. I t a l y6. J a p a n7. C a n a d a8. U n i t e d K i n g d o m9. R u s s i a10.G e r m a n y

1 1 . S o u t h K o r e a1 2 . I n d o n e s i a1 3 . P e r u1 4 . P h i l i p p i n e s1 5 . T u r k e y1 6 . B r a z i l1 7 . I n d i a1 8 . C o l o m b i a1 9 . V e n e z u e l a2 1 . T h a i l a n d2 2 . P a r a g u a y2 3 . M o r o c c o2 4 . I r a n2 5 F r a n c e

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2 0 1 2 W o r l d G D P , T O C , P o p u l a ti o nGDP TOC WORLD POPULATION

dollars people

74 153 883 925 000100%

1 938 467 000 000GDP: 2.6%

7 052 858 248 100%

MAIN 10 TOC COUNTRIES

45 244 727 000 00061%

1 584 000 000 000 GDP: 3.5% TOC: 82%

2 346 302 00033.3%

GDP per capita $ 30 777

MAIN 25 TOC COUNTRIES

57 510 984 000 00077%

1 827 530 000 000GDP: 3.2 % TOC: 94%

4 665 380 00066%

GDP per capita 20 508

MILLENNIUM PROJECT 37 COUNTRIES

59 676 906 984 00080%

1 789 885 000 000 GDP: 3% TOC: 92%

4 801 366 19068%

GDP per capita 23 936

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Millennium Project 37 Countries

1. U n i t e d S t a t e s2. C h i n a3. M e x i c o4. S p a i n5. I t a l y6. J a p a n7. C a n a d a8. U n i t e d K i n g d o m9. R u s s i a10. G e r m a n y11. S o u t h K o r e a12. P e r u13. T u r k e y14. B r a z i l15. I n d i a16. A u s t r a l i a17. C o l o m b i a18. V e n e z u e l a19. F r a n c e

2 0 . I s r a e l2 1 . S o u t h A F r i c a22. E g y p t23. G r e e c e24. M a l a y s i a25. R o m a n i a 26. K u w a i t27. U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s28. A r g e n ti n a29. P o l o n i a30. K e n y a31. N e w Z e a l a n d32. C z e c h R e p u b l i c33. C h i l e34. B o l i v i a35. B e l g i u m36. F i n l a n d37. D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c

191 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

C R I M E V A L U E S

1. Drugs

2. Counterfeiting

3. Prostitution

4. Ilegal gambling

5. Piracy

6. Ilegal trafficking

7. Oil theft

8. Illegal tobacco

9. Smuggling and

others

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 370

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

M I L L E N N I U M P R O J E C T G D P p e r c a p i t a

1. United States 2. China3. Mexico4. Spain5. Italy6. Japan7. Canada8. United Kingdon9. Russia

10. Germany11. South Korea12. Peru13. Turkey14. Brazil15. India16. Australia17. Colombia18. Venezuela

19. France20. Israel21. South Africa22. Egypt23. Greece24. Malaysia25. Romania26. Kuwat27. United Arab Emirates

28. Argentina29. Polonia30. Kenya31. New Zealand32. Czech Rep.33. Chile34. Bolivia35. Belgium36. Finland37. Dominican Rep.

M I L L E N N I U M P R O J E C T C o u n t r i e s T O C i n c o m e s

US $ 1 789 885 000 000

1. United States 2. China3. Mexico4. Spain5. Italy6. Japan7. Canada8. United Kingdon9. Russia

10. Germany11. South Korea12. Peru13. Turkey14. Brazil15. India16. Australia17. Colombia18. Venezuela

19. France20. Israel21. South Africa22. Egypt23. Greece24. Malaysia25. Romania26. Kuwat27. United Arab Emirates

28. Argentina29. Polonia30. Kenya31. New Zealand32. Czech Rep.33. Chile34. Bolivia35. Belgium36. Finland37. Dominican Rep.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 370

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

M I L L E N N I U M P R O J E C T C o u n t r i e s p o p u l a ti o n

4 8 0 1 3 3 6 1 9 0

1. United States 2. China3. Mexico4. Spain5. Italy6. Japan7. Canada8. United Kingdon9. Russia

10. Germany11. South Korea12. Peru13. Turkey14. Brazil15. India16. Australia17. Colombia18. Venezuela

19. France20. Israel21. South Africa22. Egypt23. Greece24. Malaysia25. Romania26. Kuwat27. United Arab Emirates

28. Argentina29. Polonia30. Kenya31. New Zealand32. Czech Rep.33. Chile34. Bolivia35. Belgium36. Finland37. Dominican Rep.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 370

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

D r u g s : 2 8 % U S $ 4 1 1 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

123456

1. M a r i j u a n a 3 4 . 5

2. C o c a i n e 2 0 . 6

3. P r e s c r i p ti o n d r u g s 1 7 . 64. H e r o i n 1 6 . 55. M e t a m p h e t a m i n e 6 . 96. E c s t a s y 3 . 9

%

C o u n t e r f e i t : 2 5 %US $ 369 517 000 000

1. D r u g s2. F o o d3. A u t o p a r t s4. T o y s5. S h o e s6. C l o t h i n g7. S p o r ti n g g o o d s8. P e s ti c i e s

%54131293322

9. A i r c r a ft10. A r m s11. W a t c h e s12. M o n e y13. Identity docs. & passports14. B a g s15. L i g h t e r s16. b a tt e r i e s

%0.50.50.30.20.20.20.20.1

1 23 45 67 89 1011 1213 1415 16

I l l e g a l g a m b l i n g : 9 . 5 % US $ 140 000 000 000

P i r a c y : 6 . 7 %US $ 98 600 000 000

1. S o ft w a r e 6 4 . 02. M u s i c 1 2 . 73. W i r e s 8 . 6

4. V i d e o g a m e s 8 . 2 5. M o b i l e e n t e r t a i n m e n t 3 . 4

6. F i l m s 2 . 57. B o o k s 0 . 6

%

1234567

I l l e g a l Tr a ffi c k i n g : 3 . 5 %U S $ 5 2 0 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

12345

1. H u m a n s2. W i l d l i f e3. W e a p o n s4. O r g a n s

%6 13 6 2 1

S m u g g l i n g : 2 %US $ 29 700 000 000

• H u m a n s• L i q u o r s• C o s m e ti c s• M i n e r a l s & m e t a l s• N u c l e a r

%6 71 51 0

7 . 70 . 3

123456

O t h e r s : 2 . 7 % US $ 79 100 000 000

123456

I l l e g a l l o g g i n gI l l e g a l fi s h e r yW a s t e c h u t eA r t t h e ftK i d n a p a n d R a n s o mI n t e r n a ti o n a l a d o p ti o n s

%4 03 01 41 321

30

S t u d yM E T H O D O L O G Y1. R e a l T i m e D e l p h i

2 . S c e n a r i o s 2 0 3 5

O U T C O M E S2. T o e n c o u r a g e w o m e n ’ s a c ti v e r o l e o n c r i m e

p r e v e n ti o n .

2. U N W O M E N & U N O D C p r o m o ti o n a n d i m p l e m e n t a ti o n o f S t u d y r e s u l t s .

3. U N l a u n c h g l o b a l m e d i a c a m p a i g n s o f W o m e n L e a d e r s v i s i o n s , a c ti o n s a n d m e s s a g e s .

4 . R e d u c e t h e s p e c t r u m a n d e ff e c t s o f T O C .

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