background status why we forecast bber - bernco.gov · albuquerque, msa 2035 projections 2040...
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![Page 1: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022022508/5acd91ae7f8b9a93268dc6a0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
• Background
•Status
•Why we forecast
•BBER
![Page 2: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022022508/5acd91ae7f8b9a93268dc6a0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Annual Rate of Growth
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2000 -2001
2001 -2002
2002 -2003
2003 -2004
2004 -2005
2005 -2006
2006 -2007
2007 -2008
2008 -2009
2009 -2010
2010 -2011
2011 -2012
Albuquerque, MSA
2035 Projections
2040 Update
![Page 3: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022022508/5acd91ae7f8b9a93268dc6a0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Drivers of Growth
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
NM Migration (net)
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Birth Rate (per 1,000)
![Page 4: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022022508/5acd91ae7f8b9a93268dc6a0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Regional Projections: Old & New
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
1,500,000
1,700,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
New
Old
![Page 5: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022022508/5acd91ae7f8b9a93268dc6a0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Impact of Alternative Option
6 Zones that contain
Santolina 2035 MTP
2035 ALTERNATIVE DIFFERENCE
Population 72,000 15,000 -79%
Housing 29,000 6,000 -79%
• Development in the Santolina area represented scattered unplanned growth in the 2035 MTP.
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Santolina Zones
![Page 7: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022022508/5acd91ae7f8b9a93268dc6a0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Santolina Employment Assumptions
147,000 New Jobs In Bernalillo County
2035
![Page 8: Background Status Why we forecast BBER - bernco.gov · Albuquerque, MSA 2035 Projections 2040 Update . Drivers of Growth -10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 ... 2035 MTP 2035 ALTERNATIVE](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022022508/5acd91ae7f8b9a93268dc6a0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
2008 2035