7/31/2019 AZ-Sen Anzalone Liszt for Rich Carmona (Oct. 2012)

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Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=800 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 voters in Arizona. Interviews were conducted

between October 17-21, 2012 and included bilingual interviews among Hispanic voters, and 20% of all interviews conducted via cell

phone. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected

margin of sampling error for these results is +/- 3.5% with a 95% confidence level.

October 22, 2012

To: Interested Parties

Fr: John Anzalone, Anzalone Liszt Research

Re: Summary of Polling in Arizona Senate Race

_______________________________________________________________________

Confirming the trends in recent public polling, internal polling in Arizona finds that former Surgeon General Richard

Carmona has pulled into the lead in the race for U.S. Senate. Carmona leads Congressman Jeff Flake 45% - 41%, with

Libertarian candidate Marc Victor taking 5% of the vote. This is a net 5-point shift from two weeks ago when the race was

virtually tied, 43% Carmona44% Flake. Carmonas personal popularity is stronger than Flakes with all voters,including Independents.

Carmona leads Flake in Senate head-to-head

Over the last two weeks, Carmona has moved from a tied race (43% Carmona44% Flake) to a 4-point lead,45% - 41%. Libertarian candidate Marc Victor currently takes 5% of the vote.

Carmona leads in the Tucson media market 53% - 34%, and has a 1-point lead in the Phoenix market, 44% - 43%More specifically, Carmona leads Flake in Maricopa County 45% - 42%.

Among registered Independents, Carmona leads 47% - 33%. Carmona also has strong crossover appeal, pulling18% of registered Republicansa 4-point increase from two weeks ago.

Carmonas personal popularity is stronger than Flakes

Carmonas personal popularity stands at a net-favorable 42% favorable34% unfavorable. He enjoys solidpopularity with registered Independents, 43% favorable30% unfavorable.

Jeff Flakes personal popularity is mixed, 41% favorable 41% unfavorable. Flake is underwater with Hispanicvoters, 28% favorable49% unfavorable. Flakes standing is also net-negative with registered Independents,35% favorable43% unfavorable.

Flakes attacks are backfiring

Flakes most recent personal attack ad featuring a former colleague falsely accusing Carmona of misdeeds hasappeared to backfire. Not only has Flakes unfavorable rating increased since he began airing those attacks but

based on what voters have seen from Flake in the last two weeks twice as many voters say their opinions of the

Congressman have become less favorable (24%) than more favorable (10%).

Half of voters (50%) are familiar with Jeff Flakes personal attacks on Richard Carmona, but among those whohave heard them, nearly 60% of believe it is just dirty politics (including 67% of Independents), while only 23%think his attacks are believable.