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AVG Research Daily Note

20 April 2012

close daily Y-t-d

Athens General 713.9 -1.75% 4.92%

Market Turnover (EURm) 27.2 8.8%

Market Cap (EURbn) 28.02

Market Cap / GDP**2011

13.0%

Headlines Athens General Index

Macroeconomic News

According to Reuters, citing government officials, the terms and the structure of the

recapitalization of Greek banks, most likely, will be decided after the May 6, national elections -

The Hellenic Financial Stability fund (HFSF) received the first tranche of the funds for the

recapitalization of the banks. These funds concern EUR25bn of EFSF notes According to daily

Kathimerini the HFSF will send a letter to the management of National Bank, EFG Eurobank,

Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank this morning stating its commitment to paying the money needed

for the recapitalization if the lenders uphold the capital enhancement plans they have submitted

to the Bank of Greece. HFSF letter will allow the accountants to sign certificates that the lenders

are risk-free Most likely Greek banks will release their FY11 results today.

Corporate News

National Bank is expected to release FY11 results today, after the close of the market.

Alpha Bank is expected to release FY11 results today, after the close of the market.

EFG Eurobank is expected to release FY11 results today, after the close of the market.

Piraeus Bank is expected to release FY11 results today, after the close of the market.

According to daily Kathimerini, the Greek government is offering EU an agreement in exchange

for maintaining OPAPs monopoly.

Please continue overleaf.

ASE Indices & Sectors

close daily % Y-t-d %

FTSE - 20 275.2 -2.6% 3.9%FTSE - 40 703.2 -0.9% 10.0%

FTSE - 80 168.7 1.3% 6.6%

FTSE - 140 634.4 -2.4% 4.5%

ASE - Banks 286.1 -6.7% 8.8%

ASE - Telecoms 831.3 -2.6% 4.9%

ASE - Industrial 2623.2 0.3% 9.6%

ASE - Construction 1685.9 0.2% 24.5%

FTSE ASE 20 Ratios*

2011f 2012f 10-11f

P/E (x) 11.9 9.6 -19.42%

P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 -7.67%

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 5.2 -13.23%

EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.7 -11.01%Dividend yield (%) 3.5% 4.5% 28.42%

*consensus FactSet

FTSE ASE 20/40 movers (last trading day)

TOP

Lamda Development S.A. 7.3%

Forthnet S.A. 6.3%

METKA S.A. 2.0%

BOTTOM

Alpha Bank A.E. -12.8%Piraeus Bank S.A. -10.3%

EFG Eurobank Ergasias S.A. -10.3%

Foreign Indices / Rates / FX

close daily % Y-t-d %

DJ Industrial Average 12964.

-0.5% 6.1%

Nasdaq Composite 3007.6 -0.8% 15.4%

S&P 500 1376.9 -0.6% 9.5%

Euro STOXX 230.6 -1.4% 2.1%

FTSE 100 5744.6 0.0% 3.1%

CAC40 3174.0 -2.0% 0.4%

DAX 6671.2 -0.9% 13.1%

Austria ATX 2036.3 -0.5% 7.6%

Russia RTS 1609.6 1.7% 16.5%

Turkey ISE 100 59848.

-0.5% 16.7%

10 - Year Yield (DE) 3.0% 1.2% 3.1%

USD / EUR 1.31 0.2% 1.2%

Weekly Calendar

FY:11 results: 20/04/2012 National bank of Greece, Alpha Bank, EFG Eurobank,

Piraeus bank, ATEbank

Axia Ventures Group - 4 Vas. Sofias Ave., 10674 Athens Greece, Tel: +30 210 7414400, Fax: +30 210 7414449, Web: www.axiavg.com

Please refer to the last page for disclosures and analyst certification

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Greek Economy Banks Recapitalization

Fact:According to Reuters, citing government officials, the terms and the structure of the recapitalization of Greek banks, most likely, will bedecided after the May 6, national elections - The Hellenic Financial Stability fund (HFSF) received the first tranche of the funds for the

recapitalization of the banks. These funds concern EUR25bn of EFSF notes According to daily Kathimerini the HFSF will send a letter to the

management of National Bank, EFG Eurobank, Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank this morning stating its commitment to paying the money needed

for the recapitalization if the lenders uphold the capital enhancement plans they have submitted to the Bank of Greece. HFSF letter will allow the

accountants to sign certificates that the lenders are risk-free Most likely Greek banks will release their FY11 results today.

Assessment:According to Reuters, citing an unnamed Greek government official, the terms of the recapitalization framework as regards theparticipation of the private sector will be clarified in the coming weeks,while a banker close to the negotiations stated that it looks like the plan

will take more time, there are pending issues to be resolved including the accounting treatment of the bond swap impact and the warrant

terms.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Mr. Papademos met with Central Bank Governor, Mr. Provopoulos, but their meeting did not yield any results.

Apparently the focus of the government and the central bank is how the private character of the banks can be retained.

Nevertheless, the recapitalization process continues with the HFSF expected to provide a formal assurance that the banks will receive official

assistance, according to daily Kathimerini. The report notes that HFSF will send a letter to the management of National Bank, EFG Eurobank,

Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank this morning stating its commitment to paying the money needed for the recapitalization if the lenders uphold the

capital enhancement plans they have submitted to the Bank of Greece. Kathimerini notes that the central bank has already approved the plans

submitted by banks as realistic and that the HFSF letter will allow the accountants to sign certificates that the lenders are risk-free.

As the recapitalization terms are yet to be determined, the accountants certificates are a significant step to provide assurance to the local

banking system.

Name: Constantinos Zouzoulas e-mail: [email protected] Phone number: +30 210 7414460

Closing Price (EUR) 1.76

Market Cap (EUR m) 1683National Bank of Greece Reuters / Bloomberg: NBGr.AT / ETE GA Banks / Greece

Fact: National Bank is expected to release FY11 results today, after the close of the market.

Assessment:NII is expected to decline by c7.7% y-o-y in FY:11, the result of declining deposits and a slide inNIM. Finansbank, is expected to post a good performance but the consolidated results should be impacted

from the strengthening of the Euro.

Group operating expenses are expected to decline by c5.4% y-o-y in FY:11, assisted by the groups efforts to

cut personnel and general expenses in Greece.The results should include the impact from the PSI impairment changes as well as increased provisions

following the guidance of the BlackRock review.

EURm Q4:10 Q4:11F y-o-y FY:10 FY:11F y-o-y

Net Interest Income 1014 935 -7.8% 4148 3829 -7.7%

Fees & Commissions 163 127 -22.1% 610 495 -18.9%

Non-core income 125 -1 n.n -119 -137 15.1%

Total Revenues 1302 1061 -18.5% 4639 4187 -9.7%

Operating Expenses 667 624 -6.4% 2512 2376 -5.4%

Provisions 374 1365

Net Earnings 146.6 405.5

*Factset median, Source: The Company, AVG Research


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Market Cap (EUR m) 545.0Alpha Bank Reuters / Bloomberg: ACBr.AT / ALPHA GA Banks / Greece

Fact: Alpha Bank is expected to release FY11 results today, after the close of the market.

Assessment:Net interest income for FY:11 is seen to decline by c2.5% y-o-y impacted by a drop in depositsand deleveraging and despite efforts to re-price its loan portfolio. The increased funding costs from the ELA

mechanism should further pressure NII. Fee and commission income is seen decreased c15% y-o-y because of

the slow-down in commercial and corporate banking. Still, total revenues are seen c1.5% higher y-o-y because

of a sharp rise is trading income.

Operating costs are expected to settle c3.2% lower y-o-y driven by cuts in wages & salaries and reduction in

the branch network.

The results should include the impact from the PSI impairment changes as well as increased provisions


EURm Q4:10 Q4:11F y-o-y FY:10 FY:11F y-o-yNet Interest Income 446 445 -0.2% 1819 1776 -2.4%


Non-core income 35 35 -0.9% 97 218 124.7%

Total Revenues 559 553 -1.2% 2249 2283 1.5%

Operating Expenses 194 279 43.6% 1148 1111 -3.2%

Provisions 241 885

Net Earnings 9.8 85.7




Market Cap (EUR m) 348.4EFG Eurobank Reuters / Bloomberg: EFGr.AT / EUROB GA Banks / Greece

Fact: EFG Eurobank is expected to release FY11 results today, after the close of the market.

Assessment: Net interest income in FY:11 is expected to decline hindered by lower deposits, a drop in NIM

and despite the of efforts for the re-pricing of assets. The increased funding costs from the ELA mechanism

should further pressure NII. Lower fee and commission as well as trading income should push FY:11 total

income c18% lower y-o-y

On the other hand, operating costs post a c18% decline y-o-y driven by cuts both in Greece and in SEE.



EURm Q4:10 Q4:11F y-o-y FY:10 FY:11F y-o-yNet Interest Income 554 510 -7.9% 2254 2042 -9.4%


Non-core income 63 47 -25.4% 266 59 -77.8%

Total Revenues 711 631 -11.3% 2924 2398 -18.0%

Operating Expenses 372 303 -18.5% 1426 1195 -16.2%

Provisions 340 1362 1362

Net Earnings 8 68



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Market Cap (EUR m) 309Piraeus Bank Reuters / Bloomberg: BOPr.AT / TPEIR GA Banks / Greece

Fact: Piraeus Bank is expected to release FY11 results today, after the close of the market.

Assessment: Group NII for FY:11 is seen 0.7% higher y-o-y, assisted by NII growth both in Greece and

internationally. The increased funding costs from the ELA mechanism should further pressure NII.

Despite an expected drop in net fee and commission income, higher trading income should assist groups total

revenues for the year to grow by c4.3%y-o-y.In addition, operating costs are expected to decline by c9.2% y-o-y, driven by lower costs from Greek

operations.



EURm Q4:10 Q4:11F y-o-y FY:10 FY:11F y-o-y

Net Interest Income 306.4 282 -8.0% 1199.1 1198 -0.1%

Fees & Commissions 48.8 47 -3.7% 192.4 188 -2.3%

Non-core income 39.6 -105n.n 92.9 40 -56.9%

Total Revenues 394.8 224 -43.3% 1484.4 1426 -3.9%

Operating Expenses 234.6 220 -6.2% 858.6 796 -7.3%

Provisions 172.5 586.6

Net Earnings




Market Cap (EUR m) 2182.0

OPAP Reuters / Bloomberg: OPAr.AT / OPAP GA Gaming / Greece

Fact: According to daily Kathimerini, the Greek government is offering EU an agreement in exchange for

maintaining OPAPs monopoly.

Assessment: According to press, the Greek government offers 1) to license all online gaming companies until

2020 for all games that are not under OPAPs monopoly (i.e. on line casino games) 2) the revenues from VLTs

might increase of up to EUR250m if OPAPs revenues from VLTs exceed a c ertain level. The Greek

governments IRR limit is at 23.1%; above that 50% of profits (up to EUR250m maximum) could be provided to

the State and paid upon the extension of the license and 3) starting in 2020 the government will bring taxationof OPAPs monopoly games to the same level as its competitors. In respect of the games profits, taxation will

be set at 10% from the first Euro. In respect of taxation of the profits of OPAP, the government pledges that

they will reach 30% of gross gaming revenue.

In return of the above, the government suggests that the EU 1) drops all procedures against Greeces gaming

monopoly 2) drops all lawsuits from competitors on OPAPs games taxation and 3) approve OPAPs monopoly

extension by 10 years (until 2030).

Action: Apparently the negotiations regarding the extension of OPAPs monopoly and the VLT licenses

between the Greek government and the EU continue but it is the first time that, reportedly, the Greek

government is providing specific proposals in return for these licenses. It is unclear how close/apart the two

sides are to reach an agreement but (according to the article), there could be a significant impact on OPAPs

revenues and profitability in return for EU clearing these licenses. Specifically, these proposals will impact

revenues, as winnings are taxed from the first Euro (reducing turnover), while profitability could be impacted

by increased tax and the impact from lower profits from VLTs.


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Corporate and Macro Calendar

Financial Results AGM / EGMCompany Results for Date

National Bank of Greece FY:11 20/04/2011 Bank of Greece AGM 24/04/2012

Alpha Bank FY:11 20/04/2011 Alpha Bank EGM 26/04/2012

EFG Eurobank FY:11 20/04/2011

Piraeus Bank FY:11 20/04/2011

ATEbank FY:11 20/04/2011

Macros - March 2012For the month of Date

Fiscal Data (1st

notification) 2011 23/04/2012

Building Activity January 23/04/2012

Producer Price Index in Industry March 27/04/2012

Turnover Index in Retail Trade February 30/04/2012

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Daily Note

Disclosures

Axia Ventures Group Limited is incorporated in Cyprus (but is referred to herein, together with its subsidiary companies

and affiliates, collectively, as Axia) and is authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission

(authorisation number 086/07). Axia is allowed to provide investment services in the United Kingdom and in Greece as

well pursuant to its permissions under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and may also provide similar services

in the United States.

The following analysts, who are responsible for preparation of this daily report, certify that the views and opinions

expressed on the subject companies and businesses covered by this report (each a Subject Company and, collectively,

Subject Companies) are their personal opinions and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or

indirectly related to the recommendations or views contained in this report: Constantinos Zouzoulas. None of these

analysts are involved in activities within Axia where such involvement is inconsistent with the maintenance of that

analysts independence or objectivity. None of them has received or purchased shares in any Subject Company prior to

any private or public offering of those shares. However, the analysts responsible for the preparation of this report may

interact with trading desks or sales personnel for the purpose of gathering and interpreting market information with

regard to the Subject Companies. Axia has established procedures in order to identify and manage potential conflicts of

interest which may arise in connection with its research business and the preparation of this report. Analysts and other

staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of research (including, without limitation, this report) operate

independently of management and the reporting line is separate from Axias investment banking business. Chinese Wallprocedures (procedures separating the availability of information of any Subject Company) are in place between the

investment banking and research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled

appropriately.

Whilst all substantial sources of information for the research are indicated in this report, including, without limitation,

bases of valuation applied to any security or derivative security, such information has not been disclosed to the Subject

Companies for their comments and no such information is hereby certified.

Axia is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.

Other than as disclosed in this report, neither Axia nor any of the analysts involved in the preparation of this report has

any relationship with any of the Subject Companies which may reasonably be expected to impair the independence or

objectivity of this report, nor a conflict of interest with respect to a Subject Company.

Key Definitions

AVG Research 12-month rating*

Buy The stock to generate total return** of and above 10% within the next 12-months

Neutral The stock to generate total return* *between -10% and 10% within the next 12-months

Sell The stock to generate total return* * of and below -10% within the next 12 months

Under Review Stocks target price or rating is subject to possible change

RestrictedApplicable Laws / Regulation and AXIA Ventures Group Limited policies might restrict certain

types of communication and investment recommendations

Not Rated There is no rating for the company by AXIA Ventures Group Limited

* exceptions to the bands may be granted by the Investment Review committee taking into account company specific characteristics

**total return: % price appreciationpercentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus projected

dividend yield

AXIA Ventures Group Limited Rating Distribution

Buy Hold Sell

Axia Research Total Coverage 100% 0% 0%

% of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients 0% 0% 0%

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Axia Ventures Group

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Tel: +357 22 742000 Tel: +30 210 7414400

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www.axiavg.com

Research

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Equity Sales / Trading

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