Climate Change Impacts in Asia

AVR Kesava Rao, Suhas P Wani and Team

ICRISAT Development Centre

04 May 2016

Presented at the Asia Regional Planning Meeting, ICRISAT, Patancheru

Global CO2 trends

Source: NASA-GISS, CDIAC, NOAA ESRL

May 1, 2016 407.47 ppm NOAA-ESRL

May 1, 2015 404.00 ppm Scripps CO2 UCSD

Highest-ever daily average CO2 at MLO: 409.44 ppm on April 9, 2016 (Scripps)2nd highest daily average CO2 at MLO: 409.39 ppm on April 8, 2016 (Scripps)

Global annual average temperatures anomalies(Relative to 1961-1990)

Source: WMO, Jan 2016

20

15

2015 is hottest year on record

All India: Annual temperature anomalies

Period: 1901-2015

Departures from the 1961-90 average

Source: IMD, 2016

April maximum temperatures at ICRISAT, Patancheru

India – Rainfall trends137 years (1879-2015)

Need for a detailed climate change analysisto identify opportunities for

Climate Smart Agriculture

Based on CRU 3.23 data (Jun 2015)0.5 deg data, 1233 pixels

India climates: Area changes

Changes in areas under climate types

Period Arid S-Arid D-Sub-H M-Sub-H Humid P-Humid Total (m ha)

1955-84 0.00 17.96 12.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.81

1985-14 0.00 21.78 8.77 0.23 0.03 0.00 30.81

Difference 0.00 3.82 -4.08 0.23 0.03 0.00 0.00

Period Arid S-Arid D-Sub-H M-Sub-H Humid P-Humid Total (m ha)

1955-84 0.00 1.82 6.88 0.39 0.33 0.00 9.42

1985-14 0.00 4.48 3.39 1.04 0.48 0.03 9.42

Difference 0.00 2.66 -3.49 0.65 0.15 0.03 0.00

Madhya Pradesh

Bihar

Climate variability at Nemmikal, Nalgonda

After 1978, climate tending towards Arid type, LGP reduced by 15 days

Old varieties of Maize, Pigeonpea are likely to fail more number of times

Potential for crop diversification and introduction of climate smart varieties

Changes in duration of southwest monsoon in Myanmar

Onset in northern Myanmar till withdrawal from southern Myanmar(1955-2008)

Projected climate change related disaster risks in Myanmar

Opportunity for drought and heat tolerant climate smart varieties

• Help in climate change impacts assessment

• Cultivar coefficients for groundnut, pigeonpea estimated

Crop-growth simulation models

CC Scenario Seed yield

(kg ha-1)

Seed yield

(%)

Total Dry Matter

production (kg ha-1)

Current 2000 - 5430

HadGEM2-ES 1820 -9 5410

GFDL-CM3 1830 -9 5350

CNRM-CM5 1750 -13 5250

Climate change impacts on groundnut

Projected climate impacts on pigeonpea at Kalaburagi

CC ScenarioDays to flower

Days to maturity

DMP (kg ha-1)

Seed Yield (kg ha-1)

Change in yield (%)

Present (P) 103 157 8708 2057 0P+1C+20%RF 101 152 8866 2005 -3P+1C+10%RF 101 151 8659 1961 -5P+1C 101 151 8286 1875 -9P+2C+20%RF 99 148 8525 1854 -10P+2C+10%RF 100 149 8302 1809 -12P+1C-10%RF 99 150 7798 1771 -14P+2C 99 148 7943 1734 -16P+2C-10%RF 98 147 7465 1636 -20P+1C-20%RF 99 150 7090 1615 -21P+2C-20%RF 98 147 6763 1486 -28

Increase in temperature by 2oC reduces crop yields by 16% and TDM by 9%

Increase in temperature by 2oC, reduces crop duration by 9 days without changing plant water use

Increase in temp by 2oC coupled with decrease in rainfall by 20% may result in yield reduction by 28%

AVR Kesava Rao et al., 2013

AP Rythu Kosam

ICRISAT Pilot Site Mandals

Code Mandal

17 Thullur

18 Sattenapalle

19 Kollur

20 Karlapalem

21 Konakanamitla

22 Kanigiri

23 Ongole

24 Kothapatnam

25 Podalakur

26 Indukurpet

27 Thotapalligudur

28 Venkatagiri Kota

29 Santhipuram

30 Brahmamgarimatham

31 Porumamilla

32 Veeraballe

33 Sambepalle

34 Raptadu

35 Kothacheruvu

36 Penukonda

37 Devanakonda

38 Banaganapalle

Code Mandal

1 Ranastalam

2 Seethampeta

3 Polaki

4 Parvathipuram

5 Pusapatirega

6 Chintapalle

7 Butchayyapeta

8 Padmanabham

9 Yeleswaram

10 Gangavaram

11 Thallarevu

12 Kamavarapukota

13 Akividu

14 G.Konduru

15 Ghantasala

16 Machilipatnam

Dual-purpose Raingauge

• Designed by ICRISAT

• Perhaps only such instrument in the world

• Allows both manual measurement and automatic event recording of rainfall

• Also records air temperature

• Total cost including equipment, testing, calibration, launching, installation and one-year technical support is about Rs.53,000/-

Training to students to operate and maintain the Automatic Weather Station

Students collect weather data daily and display at the school

Weather awareness at watersheds

Suggesting optimum groundnut sowing period

• Pilot study in collaboration with Microsoft team

• Devanakonda Mandal in Kurnool district

Prediction of Spodoptera adult population

El Niño is present and is weakeningA transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year

District Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SWM POM

Adilabad 19 -8 50 32 25 -39 -54 21 9

Hyderabad -34 16 36 -8 175 -71 -37 8 118

Karimnagar 29 -7 44 19 31 -58 -27 20 12

Khammam -5 -13 47 27 79 -25 -63 13 55

Mahabubnagar -9 -14 40 0 93 -65 -65 6 58

Medak -11 -13 47 40 61 -30 -31 16 39

Nalgonda -33 5 44 3 94 -72 -90 10 55

Nizamabad -1 -5 73 1 100 -28 -45 19 74

Rangareddy -25 18 64 37 92 -11 -61 30 66

Warangal 1 3 45 70 91 -59 -52 27 54

Likely rainfall situation in Telangana during Jun to Dec 2016

(Under prevailing strong El Niño conditions till April 2016)

• Update climate databases at micro-level

• Climate change analysis and assess climate change impactsusing cop-growth simulation models

• Monitor weather at project sites through automation andparticipatory methods (farmers and NGOs)

• Enhance awareness on climate variability and change

• Develop Climate Decision Support System includingweather-based pest forewarning models

Proposed work plan

We have no time to lose

• Global warming tolerance thresholds, not too far • Adaptation + mitigation approach crucial• Time to join hands to harness strengths of all partners

Time to take off

Thank You