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Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago Booth School of Business February 10, 2015 http://dicehiringindica tors.com/

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Page 1: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December:The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets

Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago Booth School of Business

February 10, 2015

http://dicehiringindicators.com/

Page 2: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Sample Statistical Products Derived from JOLTS Data

Charts and tables produced using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey following the analytical framework and measurement methods in Davis, Faberman and Haltiwanger (2012, 2013).

Steven J. Davisfaculty.chicagobooth.edu/steven.davis/

February 10, 2015

Page 3: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-140.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Dice-DFH Index of Recruiting Intensity Per Vacancy,January 2001 to December 2014

Page 4: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

DecennialCensusHiring

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

Public and Private Sector Recruiting Intensity IndicesJanuary 2001 to December 2014

Private Sector (left axis)

Public Sector (right axis)

Page 5: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Jan-01

Jul-01Jan

-02Jul-0

2Jan

-03Jul-0

3Jan

-04Jul-0

4Jan

-05Jul-0

5Jan

-06Jul-0

6Jan

-07Jul-0

7Jan

-08Jul-0

8Jan

-09Jul-0

9Jan

-10Jul-1

0Jan

-11Jul-1

1Jan

-12Jul-1

2Jan

-13Jul-1

3Jan

-14Jul-1

415

17

19

21

23

25

27

Dice-DFH Measure of National Mean Vacancy Duration, January 2001 to December 2014

Working Days

Page 6: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Dice-DFH Measure of Mean Vacancy Duration, January 2001 to December 2014

Private Sector (left axis) Public Sector (right axis)

Working Days

Working Days

Page 7: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Jan-

01Ju

l-01

Jan-

02Ju

l-02

Jan-

03Ju

l-03

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-1414

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

National Labor Market Slackness Measures

Vacancy Duration V-U Ratio Rescaled quits rateVacancies to Short Term Unemployment

The Quits Rate time series is rescaled to have the same variance and mean as the Vacancies to Unemployment Ratio. Short Term Unemployment is the sum of individuals who have been unemployed for 26 weeks or less.

Page 8: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Three-Month Moving Averages

Mar

-01

Sep-

01M

ar-0

2Se

p-02

Mar

-03

Sep-

03M

ar-0

4Se

p-04

Mar

-05

Sep-

05M

ar-0

6Se

p-06

Mar

-07

Sep-

07M

ar-0

8Se

p-08

Mar

-09

Sep-

09M

ar-1

0Se

p-10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11M

ar-1

2Se

p-12

Mar

-13

Sep-

13M

ar-1

4Se

p-14

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Recruiting Intensity Indices for Selected IndustriesJanuary 2001 to December 2014

Professional and Business Services Construction ManufacturingWholesale and Retail Trade

Page 9: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

Recruiting Intensity Indices by Census RegionJanuary 2001 to December 2014

Midwest Northeast South West

Three-Month Moving Averages

Page 10: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

Dice-DFH Measure of Mean Vacancy Duration by Establishment Size,

January 2001 to November 2014

1-9 10-49 50-249 250-999 1000-4999 5000+Working Days

Three-Month Moving Averages

Page 11: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Mar-01

Sep-01

Mar-02

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Recruiting Intensity Index by Establishment Size, January 2001 to November 2014

1-9 10-49 50-249 250-999 1000-4999 5000+

Three-Month Moving Averages

Page 12: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working Days)

By Industry and Time Period

2001 to 2003

2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 2014

Resources 12.0 12.1 17.8 17.9 13.7 18.9 18.8 21.8Construction 7.8 7.9 10.1 7.3 4.5 6.2 9.8 10.8Manufacturing 17.4 19.4 24.2 21.5 13.6 23.5 28.3 29.3Wholesale and Retail Trade 14.2 15.4 16.5 15.3 13.2 15.9 19.9 18.8Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 18.5 15.4 21.1 20.8 10.5 18.1 22.4 24.0Information 25.9 31.7 45.2 34.5 24.8 41.1 36.2 35.7Financial Services 28.0 31.0 34.7 27.6 25.7 33.8 35.7 39.5Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 19.9 21.4 16.4 18.8 19.5 22.0Education 21.2 24.1 26.4 22.5 18.3 20.6 22.9 25.8Health Services 39.1 34.6 38.3 36.3 29.8 33.6 34.9 38.1Leisure and Hospitality 13.8 14.2 16.2 14.9 10.6 13.4 16.7 19.7Other Services 22.3 17.5 20.3 23.7 17.1 18.6 20.1 21.1Government 32.9 29.7 32.6 35.9 32.2 33.1 35.5 38.2Non-Farm 19.2 19.2 21.7 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 24.2

Page 13: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period

2001 to 2003

2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 2014

Resources 0.99 1.08 1.03 1.05 0.70 1.01 0.98 1.09Construction 1.07 1.07 0.97 0.89 0.89 1.01 0.93 0.87Manufacturing 1.02 1.08 1.09 0.94 0.85 0.93 0.88 0.91Wholesale and Retail Trade 1.05 1.10 1.10 0.96 0.84 0.89 0.94 1.04Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 0.96 1.13 1.11 0.93 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.09Information 1.10 1.05 1.13 0.87 0.82 0.92 1.04 1.07Financial Services 1.05 1.07 1.13 0.99 0.84 0.86 0.98 0.93Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.08 1.05 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.96 1.02Education 1.00 0.97 1.03 1.05 0.97 0.99 0.95 0.99Health Services 1.08 1.03 1.04 1.01 0.93 0.89 0.93 0.95Leisure and Hospitality 1.08 1.08 1.09 0.97 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.95Other Services 1.01 1.10 1.01 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.97 0.95Government 1.06 1.02 1.09 0.92 0.86 0.93 0.94 0.97Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.99

Page 14: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Focus on Professional & Business Services Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working days)

By Industry and Time Period

2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 2014

Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 19.9 21.4 16.4 18.8 19.5 22.0Private 18.3 18.6 21.0 20.0 15.5 19.0 21.6 23.3Non-Farm 19.2 19.2 21.7 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 24.2

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period

2001 to

20032004 to

2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 2014

Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.08 1.05 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.96 1.02Private 1.05 1.08 1.07 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.99Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.99

Page 15: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

Mean Vacancy Duration by Establishment SizeSelected Time Periods

Class Size 2001 to 2003

2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 Jan. 2014-Nov. 2014

% chg. 2009 – Nov. 2014

1-9 19.3 18.3 17.3 19.8 12.8 16.5 18.9 24.5 92%10-49 15.2 14.9 17.5 16.2 13.0 15.7 19.2 20.9 60%50-249 15.7 16.9 19.4 18.3 15.3 17.9 21.0 20.8 37%250-999 21.0 21.9 25.7 24.9 18.0 24.5 24.2 26.4 47%1000-4999 36.2 35.0 44.2 35.6 30.7 34.3 37.7 36.8 20%5000+ 47.4 43.7 37.1 39.6 40.6 55.1 56.4 58.3 44%

Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Establishment Size and Time Period

Class Size 2001 to 2003

2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to

2012 2013 Jan. 2014-Nov. 2014

% chg. 2009 – Nov. 2014

1-9 0.99 1.10 1.06 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.88 -7%10-49 1.05 1.10 1.07 0.95 0.89 0.91 0.94 0.94 6%50-249 1.09 1.07 1.09 0.93 0.81 0.90 0.92 1.02 25%250-999 1.06 1.07 1.07 0.91 0.83 0.94 1.00 1.03 24%1000-4999 1.06 1.06 0.99 1.04 0.84 0.94 0.96 1.09 30%5000+ 0.97 1.11 1.38 1.13 0.76 0.78 0.83 0.88 16%

Page 16: Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago

ReferencesDavis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2012), “Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence,” American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 102, no. 3 (May), 584-588.

Davis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2013), “The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128, no. 2 (May), 581-622.

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