average vacancy duration is nearly unchanged in december: the broader trends is toward tighter labor...
TRANSCRIPT
Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December:The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets
Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago Booth School of Business
February 10, 2015
http://dicehiringindicators.com/
Sample Statistical Products Derived from JOLTS Data
Charts and tables produced using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey following the analytical framework and measurement methods in Davis, Faberman and Haltiwanger (2012, 2013).
Steven J. Davisfaculty.chicagobooth.edu/steven.davis/
February 10, 2015
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-140.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Dice-DFH Index of Recruiting Intensity Per Vacancy,January 2001 to December 2014
DecennialCensusHiring
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
Public and Private Sector Recruiting Intensity IndicesJanuary 2001 to December 2014
Private Sector (left axis)
Public Sector (right axis)
Jan-01
Jul-01Jan
-02Jul-0
2Jan
-03Jul-0
3Jan
-04Jul-0
4Jan
-05Jul-0
5Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
0Jan
-11Jul-1
1Jan
-12Jul-1
2Jan
-13Jul-1
3Jan
-14Jul-1
415
17
19
21
23
25
27
Dice-DFH Measure of National Mean Vacancy Duration, January 2001 to December 2014
Working Days
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Dice-DFH Measure of Mean Vacancy Duration, January 2001 to December 2014
Private Sector (left axis) Public Sector (right axis)
Working Days
Working Days
Jan-
01Ju
l-01
Jan-
02Ju
l-02
Jan-
03Ju
l-03
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14Ju
l-1414
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
National Labor Market Slackness Measures
Vacancy Duration V-U Ratio Rescaled quits rateVacancies to Short Term Unemployment
The Quits Rate time series is rescaled to have the same variance and mean as the Vacancies to Unemployment Ratio. Short Term Unemployment is the sum of individuals who have been unemployed for 26 weeks or less.
Three-Month Moving Averages
Mar
-01
Sep-
01M
ar-0
2Se
p-02
Mar
-03
Sep-
03M
ar-0
4Se
p-04
Mar
-05
Sep-
05M
ar-0
6Se
p-06
Mar
-07
Sep-
07M
ar-0
8Se
p-08
Mar
-09
Sep-
09M
ar-1
0Se
p-10
Mar
-11
Sep-
11M
ar-1
2Se
p-12
Mar
-13
Sep-
13M
ar-1
4Se
p-14
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Recruiting Intensity Indices for Selected IndustriesJanuary 2001 to December 2014
Professional and Business Services Construction ManufacturingWholesale and Retail Trade
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
Recruiting Intensity Indices by Census RegionJanuary 2001 to December 2014
Midwest Northeast South West
Three-Month Moving Averages
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Dice-DFH Measure of Mean Vacancy Duration by Establishment Size,
January 2001 to November 2014
1-9 10-49 50-249 250-999 1000-4999 5000+Working Days
Three-Month Moving Averages
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Recruiting Intensity Index by Establishment Size, January 2001 to November 2014
1-9 10-49 50-249 250-999 1000-4999 5000+
Three-Month Moving Averages
Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working Days)
By Industry and Time Period
2001 to 2003
2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to
2012 2013 2014
Resources 12.0 12.1 17.8 17.9 13.7 18.9 18.8 21.8Construction 7.8 7.9 10.1 7.3 4.5 6.2 9.8 10.8Manufacturing 17.4 19.4 24.2 21.5 13.6 23.5 28.3 29.3Wholesale and Retail Trade 14.2 15.4 16.5 15.3 13.2 15.9 19.9 18.8Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 18.5 15.4 21.1 20.8 10.5 18.1 22.4 24.0Information 25.9 31.7 45.2 34.5 24.8 41.1 36.2 35.7Financial Services 28.0 31.0 34.7 27.6 25.7 33.8 35.7 39.5Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 19.9 21.4 16.4 18.8 19.5 22.0Education 21.2 24.1 26.4 22.5 18.3 20.6 22.9 25.8Health Services 39.1 34.6 38.3 36.3 29.8 33.6 34.9 38.1Leisure and Hospitality 13.8 14.2 16.2 14.9 10.6 13.4 16.7 19.7Other Services 22.3 17.5 20.3 23.7 17.1 18.6 20.1 21.1Government 32.9 29.7 32.6 35.9 32.2 33.1 35.5 38.2Non-Farm 19.2 19.2 21.7 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 24.2
Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period
2001 to 2003
2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to
2012 2013 2014
Resources 0.99 1.08 1.03 1.05 0.70 1.01 0.98 1.09Construction 1.07 1.07 0.97 0.89 0.89 1.01 0.93 0.87Manufacturing 1.02 1.08 1.09 0.94 0.85 0.93 0.88 0.91Wholesale and Retail Trade 1.05 1.10 1.10 0.96 0.84 0.89 0.94 1.04Warehouse, Trans. & Utilities 0.96 1.13 1.11 0.93 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.09Information 1.10 1.05 1.13 0.87 0.82 0.92 1.04 1.07Financial Services 1.05 1.07 1.13 0.99 0.84 0.86 0.98 0.93Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.08 1.05 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.96 1.02Education 1.00 0.97 1.03 1.05 0.97 0.99 0.95 0.99Health Services 1.08 1.03 1.04 1.01 0.93 0.89 0.93 0.95Leisure and Hospitality 1.08 1.08 1.09 0.97 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.95Other Services 1.01 1.10 1.01 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.97 0.95Government 1.06 1.02 1.09 0.92 0.86 0.93 0.94 0.97Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.99
Focus on Professional & Business Services Mean Vacancy Duration (Number of Working days)
By Industry and Time Period
2001 to
20032004 to
2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 2014
Professional and Business Services 18.2 20.0 19.9 21.4 16.4 18.8 19.5 22.0Private 18.3 18.6 21.0 20.0 15.5 19.0 21.6 23.3Non-Farm 19.2 19.2 21.7 21.0 16.7 20.0 22.5 24.2
Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Industry and Time Period
2001 to
20032004 to
2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to 2012 2013 2014
Professional and Business Services 1.08 1.08 1.05 0.90 0.82 0.94 0.96 1.02Private 1.05 1.08 1.07 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.99Non-Farm 1.05 1.08 1.08 0.95 0.86 0.92 0.95 0.99
Mean Vacancy Duration by Establishment SizeSelected Time Periods
Class Size 2001 to 2003
2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to
2012 2013 Jan. 2014-Nov. 2014
% chg. 2009 – Nov. 2014
1-9 19.3 18.3 17.3 19.8 12.8 16.5 18.9 24.5 92%10-49 15.2 14.9 17.5 16.2 13.0 15.7 19.2 20.9 60%50-249 15.7 16.9 19.4 18.3 15.3 17.9 21.0 20.8 37%250-999 21.0 21.9 25.7 24.9 18.0 24.5 24.2 26.4 47%1000-4999 36.2 35.0 44.2 35.6 30.7 34.3 37.7 36.8 20%5000+ 47.4 43.7 37.1 39.6 40.6 55.1 56.4 58.3 44%
Recruiting Intensity IndexBy Establishment Size and Time Period
Class Size 2001 to 2003
2004 to 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 to
2012 2013 Jan. 2014-Nov. 2014
% chg. 2009 – Nov. 2014
1-9 0.99 1.10 1.06 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.88 -7%10-49 1.05 1.10 1.07 0.95 0.89 0.91 0.94 0.94 6%50-249 1.09 1.07 1.09 0.93 0.81 0.90 0.92 1.02 25%250-999 1.06 1.07 1.07 0.91 0.83 0.94 1.00 1.03 24%1000-4999 1.06 1.06 0.99 1.04 0.84 0.94 0.96 1.09 30%5000+ 0.97 1.11 1.38 1.13 0.76 0.78 0.83 0.88 16%
ReferencesDavis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2012), “Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence,” American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 102, no. 3 (May), 584-588.
Davis, Steven J., R. Jason Faberman and John Haltiwanger (2013), “The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128, no. 2 (May), 581-622.
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