availability of excess cap water. colorado river allocations upper basin – 7.5 maf lower basin -...
TRANSCRIPT
AVAILABILITY OF EXCESS CAP WATER
Colorado River Allocations
Upper Basin – 7.5 MAF
Lower Basin - 7.5 MAF
CA – 4.4 MAF
AZ – 2.8 MAFOn-river users ………. 1.3 ± MAF
CAP (junior priority)... 1.5 ± MAF
NV – 0.3 MAFMX – 1.5 MAF
COLORADO RIVER SUPPLY Modeling Assumptions
• Current Reservoir Conditions (Jan.1, 2003)– Lake Mead (Elevation 1152, 17 maf storage, 61% capacity)
– Lake Powell (Elevation 3620, 14 maf storage, 57% capacity)
• 70R Surplus Criteria• 80% Protection of 1,050’ Lake Mead elevation• YDP Operational in 2009• Upper Basin Limit = 4.8 maf• Interim Surplus Guidelines Through 2016
COLORADO RIVER SUPPLY Modeling Assumptions cont’d
• CAP Shortage Volume -- 500 KAF
• CAP Surplus Volume -- 400 KAF
• 96 years of Colorado River hydrology used in sequential traces (1906 - 2001)
COLORADO RIVER SUPPLY Modeling Results
Decade Shortage Probability Surplus Probability2003-2012 3% 11%
2013-2022 18% 23%
2023-2032 25% 19%
2033-2042 28% 19%
2043-2052 31% 17%
2053-2062+ 33% 12%
Additional:• Current Dry Cycle since 1988 - 15+ years
• Worst Case Scenario using Driest 10-year period of record with current conditions - results in a potential shortage in 2014.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
• Planning Period 2005 – 2104– 20 YEAR PERIOD = 2005 – 2024 – 80 YEAR PERIOD = 2025 - 2104
• Entire Period = CAP Normal Deliveries
• GRIC Settlement Completed/Implemented
• All CAP Water Contracted/Used by 2050
• SRP “Drought” Deliveries End After 2005
CAP WATER SUPPLY & CONCEPTUAL DELIVERY PRIORITY SCHEMATICColorado River
Flow
Upper Basin Demands
Reservoir Storage
Other Lower Basin Demands
CAP Losses
Arizona’s Colorado River Supply
CAP Water Supply
Arizona’s “On-River” Demands
M&I Subcontracts(Includes CAGRD M&I
Subcontract)
Indian On-reservation Contracts
M&I Indian Lease Contracts
NIA Allocation – Excess Water
NIA Excess Commitment(2004 – 2030)
Remaining Excess Supply
CAGRD Remaining Annual Obligation
SRP “Drought Supply”
Direct Use Excess
M&I Incentive
CAGRD Reserve &AWBA M&I
FirmingShared Pool
Other AWBA Purposes (On-River,
Indian Settlement,Interstate Storage)
CAP DEMAND PROJECTION PROCESS
Project Build out Schedules
INDIAN ON-RESERVATION
DEMANDS
Customer Development Plans
Outlook 2003
Water Use Studies
Tribal Development Plans
M&I SUBCONTRACTDEMANDS
M&I INDIAN LEASEDEMANDS
EXCESS DEMANDS
CAWCD Ag PoolPolicy
(2004 – 2030)
CAGRD Build out Plan
AWBA Demands
NIA – EXCESS WATERDEMANDS
CAGRD Plan of Operation
BOR Projections
Estimated Direct Use & Incentive
Demands
Projected SRP Demands
PROJECTED CAP SUPPLY2001 - 2051
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Af
Federal On-Reservation Use M&I Including CAGRD Contracts
Excess Pool CAP Water Supply
SUMMARY OF EXCESS CAP SUPPLY2001 - 2051
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Year
Af
NIA Commitment Remaining Excess Supply Excess Pool
Remaining Excess Supply vs. CAGRD Annual Obligation
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,00020
0220
0420
0620
0820
1020
1220
1420
1620
1820
2020
2220
2420
2620
2820
3020
3220
3420
3620
3820
4020
4220
4420
4620
4820
50
Year
Ac-
Ft
Remaining Excess Pool CAGRD Annual Obligation
CAGRD Remaining Obligation
Plan Period Enrollment Buildout
MSA “buildout”
DISTRIBUTION OF REMAINING EXCESS CAP SUPPLY2001 - 2051
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Year
Af
CAGRD Annual Obligation Use Secondary Excess Use Replenishment Reserve
AWBA M&I Firming Pool CAGRD Remaining Obligation Replenishment Reserve
Enrollment BuildoutPlan Period
MSA “buildout”
2005-2024 2005-2035 2005-2050
Annual Obligation
854,900
(1,533,000)
2,010,500
(3,636,000)
4,243,700
(7,339,000)
Secondary Excess
357,000
(477,000)
432,000
(642,000)
447,000
(867,000)
Replenishment Reserve
1,372,100
(2,150,000)
1,443,000
(3,400,000)
1,452,000
(3,900,000)
AWBA (M&I Firming)**
1,372,100
(1,600,000)
1,443,000
(1,600,000)
1,452,000
(1,600,000)
TOTAL 3,956,100(5,760,000)
5,328,400(9,278,000)
7,594,600(13,706,000)
REMAINING EXCESS WATER AVAILABLE (after NIA commitment)*
**Does not include 1.1 maf Interstate + .6maf Indian Firming*Demands shown in Blue
EXCESS WATER SUPPLY CONCLUSIONS
• Ag Pool Commitment 2004 – 2030 will be met• Remaining Excess Supply Insufficient to Meet
Projected Annual Obligations in 2016, 2018 –2030, & 2051 - 2104
• Remaining Excess Supply Insufficient to Meet Projected AWBA Needs
• Remaining Excess Supply Insufficient to Meet Replenishment Reserve Target ABSENT Acquisition of Long-Term Supplies
CAP Federal On-Reservation Build-Out
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,0001
99
9
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
Year
AF
Ak Chin Camp Verde Ft. McDowel Gila River Pasqua Yaqui
Salt River Pima Maricopa San Carlos Chui Chu San Xavier Shuk Toak
Tonto Apache Yavapai-Prescott Other Settlements