automotive market research council spring conference


Scott D. Upham

Scott D. Upham

President & Chief Executive Officer, Valient Automotive Market Research

Scott D. Upham is the founder, president & chief executive officer of Valient Market Research, a

worldwide leader in consumer and business-to-business market research, market forecasting and

competitive intelligence. Based in Rochester, New York, Valient ’s Automotive division provides

primary and secondary market research, competitive intelligence and forecasting services to over one

hundred automotive industry firms. Upham is an automotive industry thought leader, forecaster,

journalist and a senior consultant to several automotive industry CEO’s. During his twenty-four year

career, Upham has provided confidential management advisory services to several leading vehicle

manufacturers, Tier 1-2-3 parts suppliers and private equity firms around the world. His areas of

expertise include automotive light vehicle production forecasting, primary and secondary competitive

intelligence, merger & acquisition assessment, new market entry strategies, technology migration

analysis, consumer market research and automotive business-to-business market research. Upham

serves on the Western New York Board of Directors of the Society of Competitive Intelligence

Professionals (SCIP). Upham is an oft-quoted source to major media outlets including the Wall

Street Journal, Handelsblatt, Investors Business Daily, Nikkei Weekly, New York Times, Washington

Post, Automotive News, USA Today and National Public Radio. Prior to founding Valient Solutions,

Upham was senior vice president of Harris Interactive’s Automotive & Transportation division, senior

director of J.D. Power and Associates Global Forecasting division and president and chief executive

officer of Providata Inc. Upham began his career in NAAO purchasing at Ford Motor Company and

held senior marketing posts with automotive suppliers including TRW Automotive, Kelsey-Hayes and

Takata Corporation. Upham earned a Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from Eastern

Michigan University in Ypsilanti, Michigan and completed graduate studies from Pennsylvania State

University in State College, Pennsylvania.

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© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 3

Global Economic Outlook - Positive

Global Economic Outlook – Positive

• Despite a slow U.S. economic recovery impacted by high

unemployment rates and depressed housing values, North American

production volumes continue to rise.

• In the near term, expect volumes to continue to rise as unemployment

decreases to 7-8% level and sub-prime lending environment improves.

Post-2012 Election optimism could provide a boost as well.

• Continued strong growth in light-vehicle production continues in BRIC

(Brazil, Russia, India & China) countries.

• Recovery from 2011’s Japanese earthquake/tsunami is almost 100%

completed. Honda, Toyota continue to struggle in the North American

market to regain market share.


Global Economic Outlook - Negative

Global Economic Outlook – Negative

• Growth coming to a stand-still in Western Europe due to the continued

debt crisis in several countries including Greece, Spain and Italy.

• Potential Israel-Iran conflict could have a large effect on near-term

consumer demand due to large fuel price increases, regional instability

and oil shortages.

• Elongated vehicle retention cycle in the U.S. is hampering near term

production volume and sales growth. Consumers are holding onto

vehicles longer than at anytime since the early 1990’s.

• European Union stability is wavering and could have a large impact on

production volumes if current fractures lead to EU departures.


Near Term

Technological Innovations

Near Term Technological Innovations – 2013-2020

• New “Black Box” vehicle performance recording device legislation

gaining traction in Congress and within European Union committees.

• In the U.S., Congress is also debating the merits of a national texting

while driving ban.

• Other safety innovations appearing in the near-term:

• Windshield and in-between occupant airbag modules

• Occupant injury mitigation systems – seat angle/position sensors,

seatbelt pretensioners and inflatable head rests.

• Exterior pedestrian protection airbag systems – hood lift and

inflatable bladder varieties.

• Emergency power protection – roof embedded solar panels for

electricity generation for emergency services.

• Self-repair tires.


Near Term



• Further customizable vehicle solutions including:

• Seat position, angle, lumbar and inflatable seating comfort bladder

systems. Lear, JCI and Magna developing this technology now.

• HVAC controls using body heat and stored preference information.

• Audio system configuration customization based upon music or

content type – base, treble, volume, surround, etc. Bose, Sony,

Panasonic and several premium brands developing this technology.

• Coordinated safety system performance – airbag, seatbelt, steering

wheel, braking, traction control and vehicle stability systems.

Bosch, TRW and Continental leading the way.


Near Term



• Cellular phone-based vehicle customization trends – Personal Vehicle

Customization Key

• Microsoft, Google and Apple developing personal vehicle

customization key that is based in your PDA or cell phone.

• Will automatically adjust all in-vehicle systems to your personal

preferences including your seat’s position, angle, temperature,

lumbar and comfort bladder system. It will also adjust the vehicle’s

infotainment system for your preferences for audio content type,

volumes and tuning. HVAC temperature preferences will also be

controlled through this system.

• Exploration into senior driver profiles and teenager/early driver

tracking and vehicle performance controls.


Near Term



• In-vehicle “By Wire” systems gain popularity

• Brake By Wire will eliminate over sixty pounds of vehicle

infrastructure and improve braking reliability, performance and

reaction times.

• Steering By Wire will eliminate over one hundred pounds of vehicle

infrastructure (i.e. steering column and simplified axles). Again,

improved steering accuracy, reliability, performance and reaction

times are top outcomes.

• Will allow for easier integration of vehicle stability control systems.

• Vehicle-to-vehicle communication technologies being developed by

BMW, Mercedes-Benz and over ten vehicle suppliers now.


Long Term


Long Term Technological Innovations – 2020-2030

• Extinction Level Events – Automotive Systems & Components

• OnStar and other concierge services.

• Sunroofs becoming obsolete due to panoramic roof technologies.

• Glass will be replaced by hybrid glass/resin products.

• Mirrors will be replaced by low-cost camera and displays

• Instrument panel clusters will be replaced by display screens.

• Engine cooling and exhaust systems will decrease as powertrains

shift to non-fossil fuel based technologies.

• Steering wheels and columns likely to be replaced by different

driver interface devices.

• Tires will transform due to higher speed tolerance needs and 100%

lifetime inflation demands.


Long Term



• Areas of Development – Automotive Systems & Components

• Biometric sensors – alcohol, low glucose, CO2 output, eye tracking,

heartbeat monitoring.

• Recyclable materials – plant-based material for foam, padding, and

surface materials.

• Carbon fiber-based products – lightweight carbon fiber-based

products help lower vehicle weight and improve performance.

• Anti-bacterial materials – no/low growth materials for in-vehicle

applications including surface materials, filters and HVAC systems.


Long Term



• Areas of Development – Automotive Systems & Components

• Safety – Invisible A-B-C-D pillars, pedestrian/animal sensing

protection systems, EV noise generation.

• Older generation focused products – easy of entry swiveling seats,

seatbelt presenters, larger font controls, easier to operate controls

and higher output vehicle lighting.

• RFID based systems for personal vehicle fleet management.


Long Term



• Autonomous Vehicle Development

• A vehicle that is not dependant on a driver.

• Rapid development into several research areas that will result in

the first production autonomous light-vehicles by 2030.

• Several State governments including Arizona and California are

developing legislation to address autonomous vehicle technologies.

• Largely driven by Google, Microsoft and other technology-based

firms.

• Not just vehicle-based systems but in-road systems for consistency,

improved performance and connectivity.

• Goal = Large decrease in traffic deaths, increased productivity,

improve quality of road/vehicle interface, lower energy consumption

and lower carbon footprint.


Long Term



• Autonomous Vehicle Development continued…

• Goal of 200 miles per hour will decrease traffic congestion, improve

productivity and lessen demand for high-cost/high environmental

impacting travel modes like air travel.

• More predictable vehicle maintenance based upon tighter control of

vehicle/road interface.

• “True” vehicle location, distance, speed, maintenance and history

recording tied to vehicle title records and insurance policies.

• Lowering of drunk/impaired drinking, older driver and poor driver

related deaths.


Long Term



• Autonomous Vehicle Development continued…

• Family trip from Rochester, NY to New Orleans, LA – 1,388 miles

• Google Maps = 22 hours 20 minutes

• True time = Day 1, 12 hours and Day 2, 10 hours

• Autonomous Vehicle Time: 7-8 hours


PAGE 15

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