automotive industry: vision 2033 wien october 3rd & 4th · macro trends (2012 vs 2008) growing...

DREAM 18 octobre 2012CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT

Automotive Industry: Vision 2033

Wien October 3rd & 4th

Energy is cheap

10 kWh = 100 bulbs of 100 W in 1 h

1,9 €

1 liter of gasoline = 10 Kwh

= 40 cents

Spot electricity stock exchange

Barrel price in current dollars

Barrel price in constant dollars

Energy in constant Euros

Orders of magnitude

STRICTEMENT CONFIDENTIEL

Energy demand is exploding


33 days

48 days

10 % trafic

700 Billion dollars saved


Evolution of artic ice between 1979 et 2012


Evolution artic surface


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1950 2000 2050 2100

Worldwide possible coal production M toe

North America

China

Pacific

Africa

Europe

Asia

FSU

lignite

Year

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1950 2000 2050 2100

Worldwide possible coal production M toe

North America

China

Pacific

Africa

Europe

Asia

FSU

lignite

Year

Worldwide Possible Coal Production

Coal will survive after oil

Pic coal

World Coal reserves

Coal reserves are important in big energy cosumers countries

Coal consumption evolution

World Coal Consumption

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

Qua

d B

TU OECD

Non-OECD

Total

Consumption will rise essentially in non OCDE countries

Number of coal fire plants construction

Nuclear energy

There is a road map !

Available Technology

Road-Map

Early PrototypeReactors

Generation I

- Shippingport

- Dresden, Fermi

- Magnox

Commercial Power

Reactors

Generation II

- LWR-PWR, BWR

- CANDU- VVER/RBMK

- AGR

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Generation IV

- Highly Economical

- Enhanced Safety

- Minimize Wastes

- Proliferation Resistant

AdvancedLWRs

Generation III

- ABWR

- System 80+- AP600

- EPR

Gen I Gen II Gen III Gen III+ Gen IV

Generation III+

Generation III Evolutionary Designs Offering Improved Economics

http://gen-iv.ne.doe.gov/

Fission Fusion

Renewable Sources

EMETTEUR DATE STRICTEMENT CONFIDENTIEL

Wind Gaz PV Oil CoalEnergie

Cap

acité

de

prod

uctio

n (G

Wh)

New capacities of electrique production installed in Europe in2008

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Pui

ssan

ce N

omin

ale

(GW

)


Cap

acité

de

prod

uctio

n (G

Wh)

EN PUISSANCE NOMINALE(Puissance maximale)

EN CAPACITE A FOURNIR DE L’ENERGE(Sur une année)

Take care of absolute figures

Wind Energy

World Wind Power Total installed Capacity (GWp)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Cap

acity

(G

Wp)

2010 World installed capacity 160 GW160 Wind GWp �� 45 nuclear GW �� 12% Nuclear world power

Limits:• Grid management (intermittency, …) => penetration limit of 20%• Environmental impact• … Still progressing

Central in Portugal 11 MW :Porcheville : 3000 MW

CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 25

EMETTEUR DATE STRICTEMENT CONFIDENTIEL

Cost of production of electricity

Bio fuels

TOE production for 1 ha

�Oil 1 to 2 TOE/year�Ethanol 2 to 4 TOE/year

�2nd Generation 3 to 6 TOE/year�

French transportation needs: 57 MTOE ≈> 100% of French farming area

Bio fuel is only a small brick of the solution

Origin of Hydrogen

H2

Ren

ewab

leBiomas

s

HydroWindSolar

Non

-Ren

ewab

le

Coal

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Oil Distributed Generation

Seq

uest

ratio

n

Transportation

48%

30%

18%

4%

Natural Gaz

Oil

Coal

Hydrolyze

H2 originH2 as Vector

Electricity

©O

EC

D/IE

A 2

009

Worldwide electricity generation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1992 2007

Coal Oil Gas

©O

EC

D/IE

A 2

009

gCO2 / kWh for some countries

Reference Approach

Sectoral Approach

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Afrique du

Sud

Brésil Chine Etats-Unis Inde Fédération de

Russie

Union

Européenne

Monde

g C

O2

pa

r k

Wh

1992

2007

Electricity production

Données 2005 :IEA www.iea.org

Some countries have atypic production

Distribution de la production d ’électricité

Données 2005 :IEA www.iea.org

Electricity is coal


Towards 95 g of CO2

Main OEM CAFE

Groupe Renault (R+Dacia) est TOP1 EU 27suivi de Toyota et Peugeot


CO2 emission reduction

Pol

luta

nt e

mis

sion

red

uctio

n (

NO

x+10

PM

)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Euro6 D

Euro4/6 G

Euro5 D

EGR LPvariable Swirl

Extra Heavydownsizing

MildHybrid

MicroHybrid

Milddownsizing

Milddownsizing

GDI

Heavydownsizing

e-driveHybrid

Diesel

Gasoline

Hybrids

2010

2015

2020Electrical

Plug-in hybrid

Battery EV (Range Extender)

Battery EV + Fuel Cell + on-board H2

Renault powertrain technologies roadmap

Breakthru: Powertrain electrification

Energie : Fuel Cell

BCONFIDENTIELPROPRIETE RENAULT

Scenic ZEV-H2 en 2008

� PàC 90 kW

� Batterie Li-ion : 1.2 kWh

� Réservoir H2 350 bars, 3,74 kg


Hydrogen costSource : A fact-based analysis for powertrains in Europe - the role of BEV, PHEV and FCEV

Energie : Fuel Cell

Every technical problem is solved :

� Cold start (-30°)

� Performance (0 – 100 km/h -> 12 s)

� Range (500 km)

Cost is the challenge


Electronics & power electronics


«More than Moore» Multiscale integration


150 euros

Memory cost is collapsing


Memory cost is collapsing

25 DVD on a stamp !

World record: 1 million Giga on a DVD

Mobile phone distribution

Macro trends (2012 vs 2008)

Growing population 7,5 milliards d’humains (+10% vs. 2008)

Urbanisation 55% population mondiale(+12% vs. 2008)

Mégapoles 12 villes de plusde 15 millions habitants(6 en 2008)

More seniors 1 milliard over 60 ans(x2 vs. 2008)

54CONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY

B

Worldwide market

Euromed

Eurasia

Asia & Africa

China

USA + Canada

w/o USA + Canada

(million units)

w/o China

Americas

TotalTotal

1.3

3.3

15.1

7.8

17.8

5.4

68.868.8

1.1

1.8

15.2

12.9

11.9

5.1

64.064.0

France & Europe 18.1 15.9 15.3

1.3

2.2

16.5

16.0

13.3

5.9

70.570.5

France 2.5 2.7 2.6Europe 15.6 13.2

18.6

1.9

4.9

22.7

26.4

17.6

8.2

100.4100.4

2.616.0

16.3 17.8

1.4

3.5

18.9

19.3

16.6

6.9

82.882.8

1.7

4.4

20.8

23.0

17.7

7.5

92.892.8

2.5 2.513.8 15.312.7

20072007 20092009 20102010PM11PM11

2020202020132013 20162016 10-yearchange10-yearchange

3.3

0.6

2.7

6.2

10.4

4.3

2.3

0.03.3

29.929.9

Asia is 50% of the market in 2010 and will reach 60% en 2020

2000

2010

2020

Europe & Africa

Asia & OthersNorth America

South America

34%

32%

30%

27%

50%

17%

22%

60%

13%

4%

6%

5%


B

5 major trends

� A great need for mobility in an urbanized worldLack of public infrastructure & traffic limitations

� Raw materials and oil more and more expensive with shortage risks

� Accelerating Global Warmingand more severe regulations

� The financial crisis not overwith high risk of some states insolvency Financially constrained middle class

© Coe-Rexecode

Oil price (Brent, barrel) in US$

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

© Coe-Rexecode

Oil price (Brent, barrel) in Euro

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

20

40

60

80

100

30

© Coe-Rexecode

US$, January 1988 = 100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

© Coe-Rexecode

Euro, January 1988 = 100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

70

100

130

160

190

220

250

280

Oil Price in EUR Oil Price in USD

Industrial metal

Price Index

EUR

Industrial metal

Price Index

USD

City core

Near suburb

Far outskirt

� Economic and TIVs growth unevenly splitbetween mature (ageing) and emerging (younger) countries

Time to recover 2007 TIV level (by Region)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

100

= 20

07 T

IV

France & Europe

EuroMedEurAsia

Americas (South&Central)

Asia & Africa

USA & Canada

World

2007 TIV (M. units)18

13 5

23 18

0

5

10

15

20

25

France &Europe

EuroMed

EurAsia

Americas Asia &Africa

USA &Canada

2007 TIV (M. units)18

13 5

23 18

0

5

10

15

20

25

France &Europe

EuroMed

EurAsia

Americas Asia &Africa

USA &Canada

January 2011 vision

Debt and Deficit Indicators (2010)

Source: DataInsight, 2011

-12,0

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

0 50 100 150 200

Public Debt / GDP (%)

Belgium

Germany

France

Italy

Portugal

UK

Netherlands

USA

JapanEurozone

Spain

Bud

get D

efic

it / G

DP

(%

)

Greece

Debt and Deficit Indicators (2010)

Source: DataInsight, 2011

-12,0

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

0 50 100 150 200

Public Debt / GDP (%)

Belgium

Germany

France

Italy

Portugal

UK

Netherlands

USA

JapanEurozone

Spain

Bud

get D

efic

it / G

DP

(%

)

Greece

Oil price

Metals index

20082005 2011 20082005 2011


B

Conséquences for automotive industry industry

� Optimize raw materials use per car (less weight, bi o-materials, criticality…) and boost recycling

� In addition to ZEV, develop low CO2 and low cost en ginesand anticipate always more severe regulations

� Reduce drastically all costsand focus on technologies for costs breakthroughs

� Adapt to changes in customers needs (downgrading, d ownsizing…)and invest in alternative mobility schemes and serv ices

� Be where growth will beand be prepared for the next BRICs

58DREAMCONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY

B

02/10/2012

Environmental Footprint

Life Cycle Acessment

18 oct 2012CONFIDENTIELPROPRIÉTÉ RENAULT 59

Scraps are a market


Scraps market is like a raw material market

Exportation USA => Chineen Valeur (2005)

cow hides and skins

electric apparatus

auto data equip. auto parts

cotton

soybeans

aircraft and parts

digital int. circuits

ferrous scrap

copper scrap

scrap/waste paper aluminum scrap

0 1 2 3 4 5

b $

Need to be an actor of recycling process


Guiyu (Chine) appelée "e-waste »100 000 personnes employées dans le secteur

Condition de travail, Salaires, combustion des plastiques, pollution des sols

Baie d’Alang40 000 personnes

CONFIDENTIALRENAULT PROPERTY

BDGA PPP/ DPE 18 octobre 2012

China investments in mines worldwide…

2004 01/2009

01/2010


B

02/10/2012

Ultra-intuitive use of Advanced Systems by All


Exemple PIONEER (Japon) Système de navigation à réalité augmentée

� Système de navigation avec écran motorisé 7" intégré à un autoradio 2 DIN

� Superpose sur la carte les images réelles d'une caméra sans fil en haut du pare-brise

� Commercialisation prévue au Japon juin 2011 (2600 €)


B

02/10/2012

Service-based car business


A car will be part of a global offer of services


Sale

Finance

ExpensesServicing

Gasoline

Inssurance

Parking

MEDIAConnectivité

Entertainment

Navigation

Global offer


B

02/10/2012

EV

Mild-hybrid

Full-hybrid

(parapllel)

Full-hybrid

(power-spilt)

plug-in hybrid

EV

range-extender

Pure E

V

Mild-hybrid

Full-hybrid

(parapllel)

Full-hybrid

(power-spilt)

plug-in hybrid

EV

range-extender

Pure E

V

Mild-hybrid

Full-hybrid

(parapllel)

Full-hybrid

(power-spilt)

plug-in hybrid

EV

range-extender

Pure E

V≤ 2012 2013 - 2015 2016 - 2020


B

02/10/2012

L’énergie liquide est reine

La quantité d’énergie embarquée: un critère fondamental pour les applications mobiles


Well to Wheel CO2 emission (2010 technology)

Electricity / Nat Gas

Electricity / Coal

Electricity / Wind, Hydro

Electricity / Nuclear

Electricity / EU Mix

Electricity / FR Mix

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Nat Gas Reforming

Coal Gasification

Electrolysis / Nat Gas

Electrolysis / Coal

Electrolysis / Wind, Hydro

Electrolysis / Nuclear

Electrolysis / EU Mix

Electrolysis / FR Mix

Fluence ZE14 kWhe/100km

Scenic ZEV-H21.15 kgH2/100km

gCO2/km

� Present/mid-term context of H2 and electricity production in EU

�� FCEV carbon footprint is twice BEV and close to Diesel

� Best carbon footprint long term scenario (electrolysis with green electricity), �� FCEV energy footprint is 3 times higher than BEV (70% x 85% x 50%)

� Present/mid-term context of H2 and electricity production in EU

�� FCEV carbon footprint is twice BEV and close to Diesel

� Best carbon footprint long term scenario (electrolysis with green electricity), �� FCEV energy footprint is 3 times higher than BEV (70% x 85% x 50%)

Most representative

Most representative

BEV

FCEV

Li-ion family

Cathode Anode

Li Li ++

Cobalt Cobalt (Li(LiCoCoOO22))

Manganèse (LiMn2O4)

Phosphate de fer (LiFePO4)

NCA (LiNiCoAl O2)

NMC (LiNiMnCo O2)

GraphiteGraphite

Hard CarboneHard Carbone

TitanateTitanate

Oxyde de Lithium :Oxyde de Lithium :

Li-ion picture: courtesy of Prof. M. Winter

Manganèse

NCA

Phosphatede fer

NMC

automotive industry: vision 2033 wien october 3rd & 4th · macro trends (2012 vs 2008) growing...

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