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KPMG LLP, is a Canadian limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. KPMG Canada provides services to KPMG LLP. KPMG Confidential

Final Release: November 7, 2014

Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability

Expert Report

2014 Annual Report

Insurance Industry Practice Property & Casualty Actuarial Services

kpmg.ca

Province of Ontario Ministry of Finance

http://www.kpmg.com/ca/en/Pages/Default.aspx

This document has been prepared by KPMG for the Government of Ontario (Government). KPMG neither warrants nor represents that the information contained in this document is accurate, complete, sufficient or appropriate for use by any person or entity other than the Government or for any purpose other than that set out in the Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – 2014 Annual Report. This document may not be relied upon by any person or entity other than the Government, and KPMG hereby expressly disclaims any and all responsibility or liability to any person or entity other than the Government in connection with their use of this document.

KPMG LLP Telephone (416) 777-8500 Bay Adelaide Centre Fax (416) 777-8818 333 Bay Street Suite 4600 Internet www.kpmg.ca Toronto ON M5H 2S5 Canada

KPMG LLP, is a Canadian limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. KPMG Canada provides services to KPMG LLP. KPMG Confidential

Hon. Charles Sousa Minister of Finance Frost Building South 7 Queen’s Park Crescent, 7th Floor Toronto, Ontario M7A 1Y7

November 7, 2014

Dear Minister Sousa,

It is our pleasure to submit our final report titled Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – 2014 Annual Report. This is the second of three reports that the Ministry of Finance engaged KPMG LLP to prepare as per the Auto Insurance Cost and Rate Reduction Strategy that was part of the 2013 Ontario Budget.

We look forward to working with the Ministry of Finance to prepare the 2015 Annual Report.

Sincerely,

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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1 Executive Summary 1 1.1 Purpose of the Report 1 1.2 Scope of the Interim Report and Annual Reports 1 1.3 Organization of the 2014 Annual Report 2 1.4 Complete 2014 Annual Report 3 1.5 Approach 3 1.6 Summary of the Interim Report 3 1.7 Independent Actuarial Analysis and Surveys 4

1.7.1 Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of the Reforms ................................................... 4 1.7.2 Qualitative Analysis based on Summary of Surveys ................................................. 7

1.8 Observations and Recommendations 10 1.8.1 General Observations and Recommendations ........................................................ 10 1.8.2 Specific Recommendations ..................................................................................... 13

1.9 Preview of 2015 Annual Report 15

2 Introduction 16 2.1 Distribution and Use 16 2.2 Confidentiality and Conflict of Interest 16

3 Statement of the Issue 18 3.1 Background 18 3.2 Purpose and Scope of 2014 Annual Report 19

4 Approach 21 4.1 Analysis of GISA Data 21 4.2 Interim Report 21

4.2.1 P&C Insurers Financial Statements ........................................................................ 21 4.2.2 Findings from Interim Report and Information Collected through Interim Report Survey 22

4.3 2014 Annual Report Survey and Interviews 22 4.3.1 Representative Stakeholders .................................................................................. 23 4.3.2 Lack of Consumer Representation .......................................................................... 24

5 Summary of Independent Actuarial Analysis and Surveys 26 5.1 Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of the Reforms 26

5.1.1 Independent Actuarial Analysis ............................................................................... 26 5.1.2 Interim Report Survey and 2014 Annual Report Survey .......................................... 33

5.2 Qualitative Analysis based on Summary of Surveys 36 5.2.1 Impact of the Reforms ............................................................................................. 36 5.2.2 Anti-Fraud Recommendations................................................................................. 39 5.2.3 Dispute Resolution System (DRS) .......................................................................... 39 5.2.4 Impact of the Strategy ............................................................................................. 41 5.2.5 Issues and Uncertainty in the PPA Insurance System ............................................. 42 5.2.6 Competitiveness of the Ontario PPA Insurance Market ........................................... 43

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6 Observations and Recommendations 44 6.1 General Observations and Recommendations 45

6.1.1 Consumer Representation ...................................................................................... 45 6.1.2 Develop a Deeper Understanding of the Impact of the Reforms and Strategy ......... 46 6.1.3 Health Claims for Auto Insurance System ............................................................... 47 6.1.4 Sharing and Monitoring Information from the PPA Insurance System ..................... 48 6.1.5 Initiatives that May Reduce Claim Frequency ......................................................... 48 6.1.6 Other General Observations and Recommendations .............................................. 49

6.2 Specific Recommendations 50 6.2.1 FSCO Benchmarks ................................................................................................. 50 6.2.2 FSCO Processes .................................................................................................... 51 6.2.3 Recommendations for Cost Savings and Reducing Uncertainty based on Stakeholder Suggestions ....................................................................................................................... 52

6.3 Preview of 2015 Annual Report 53

7 Appendix A – Summary of Interim Report 55 7.1.1 Change in Claim Costs and Premiums .................................................................... 55 7.1.2 Uncertainty in the Ontario PPA Insurance System .................................................. 56 7.1.3 Recommendations and Observations ..................................................................... 57

8 Appendix B – Independent Actuarial Analysis 58

9 Appendix C – Survey 59

10 Appendix D – Summary of 2014 Annual Report Survey 62 10.1 Impact of the Reforms 63

10.1.1 Qualitative Impact of the Reforms ........................................................................... 63 10.1.2 Quantitative Impact of the Reforms ......................................................................... 68

10.2 Anti-Fraud Recommendations 69 10.2.1 Descriptions of Programs to Combat Automobile Insurance Fraud ......................... 70 10.2.2 Impact on Automobile Insurance Claim Costs and Rates ........................................ 71 10.2.3 Impact of Recommendations on Stakeholders ........................................................ 71

10.3 Dispute Resolution System (DRS) 74 10.3.1 Qualitative Assessment of Impact of the Current DRS ............................................ 74 10.3.2 Quantitative Assessment of Impact of the Current DRS .......................................... 75 10.3.3 Qualitative Assessment of DRS Report ................................................................... 75

10.4 Impact of the Strategy 77 10.4.1 Steps Taken to Reduce Costs................................................................................. 77 10.4.2 Planned Steps to Reduce Costs ............................................................................. 77 10.4.3 Issues Preventing Stakeholders from Reducing Costs ............................................ 78 10.4.4 Potential Actions by the Government ...................................................................... 78 10.4.5 Potential Actions by Other Stakeholders ................................................................. 80

10.5 Issues and Uncertainty as a Result of the Reforms and the Strategy 82

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10.5.1 Areas of Uncertainties Identified by Representative Stakeholders .......................... 82 10.5.2 Issues Contributing to Uncertainty .......................................................................... 84 10.5.3 Suggested Action Steps to Alleviate or Mitigate Uncertainties ................................ 86

10.6 Competitiveness of the Ontario PPA Insurance Market 87 10.7 Comments on Recent Appeal Decisions 88

10.7.1 Scarlett v. Belair ...................................................................................................... 88 10.7.2 Pastore v. Aviva ...................................................................................................... 89 10.7.3 Henry v. Gore Mutual .............................................................................................. 89

10.8 Other 90

11 Appendix E – Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule Summary 91

12 Appendix F – Reference Sources 93

List of Tables

Table 1.1: Summary of Estimates of Claim Cost Trends and Reforms Impacts by Main Coverage .. 5 Table 4.1: Representative Stakeholders invited to participate in the 2014 Annual Report Survey .. 23 Table 5.1: Summary of Estimates of Claim Cost Trends and Reforms Impacts by Coverage ......... 27 Table 5.2: Post-Reforms Approved Rate Changes for the Entire PPA Insurance Market ............... 33 Table 5.3: Estimated Change in Claim Costs by Coverage (Interim Report Survey Results) .......... 34 Table 5.4: Estimated Change in Claim Costs by Kind of Loss ........................................................ 35 Table 5.5: Weighted Average Approved Rate Changes since the Reforms by Effective Year and

Coverage ...................................................................................................................... 35 Table 11.1: Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule Summary .......................................................... 91

List of Figures

Figure 5.1: Comparison of Average Written Premium Changes v. Claim Cost Trends for All Coverages Combined ................................................................................................... 31

Figure 5.2: Components of Average Premium Changes for All Coverages Combined ................... 32

Glossary

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AB: Accident benefits coverage.

AB-DB: Accident benefits death benefits coverage.

AB-DI: Accident benefits disability income coverage.

AB-F: Accident benefits funeral expenses coverage.

AB-MR: Accident benefits medical and rehabilitation coverage.

AB-Non DI: Accident benefits other than disability income coverage.

AB-SUP: Accident benefits supplementary coverage.

AIAC: Association of Independent Assessment Centres.

AMA: American Medical Association.

ASB: Actuarial Standards Board.

ASP: Automobile statistical plan.

CAE: Claims adjustment expense.

CANATICS: Canadian National Insurance Crime Services.

CARF: Commission on Accreditation of Rehabilitation Facilities.

CAS: Casualty Actuarial Society.

CIA: Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

CIAA: Canadian Independent Adjusters’ Association.

COL: Collision coverage.

COM: Comprehensive coverage.

DRS: Dispute Resolution System.

FAIR: Fair Association of Victims of Accident Insurance Reform.

FCAS: Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society.

FCIA: Fellow of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

FSCO: Financial Services Commission of Ontario.

GISA: General Insurance Statistical Agency.

Glossary

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Government: The Government of Ontario.

GTA: Greater Toronto Area.

HCAI: Health Claims for Auto Insurance System.

HCDB: Ontario Health Claims Database.

HST: Harmonized sales tax.

IAIS: International Association of Insurance Supervisors.

IBAO: Insurance Brokers Association of Ontario.

IBC: Insurance Bureau of Canada.

IME: Independent medical examination.

ISO: International Organization for Standardization.

MIG: Minor Injury Guideline.

MOF: Ministry of Finance.

MVA: Motor vehicle accident.

OFIT: Ontario Federation of Independent Towers.

OHIP: Ontario Health Insurance Plan.

OIAA: Ontario Insurance Adjusters Association.

OPA: Ontario Psychological Association.

ORA: Ontario Rehab Alliance.

OSFI: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

OTLA: Ontario Trial Lawyers Association.

PCT: Professional Credential Tracker.

P&C: Property and casualty.

PhysD: Physical damage coverage.

PPA: Private passenger automobile or personal lines automobile.

PTAO: Provincial Towing Association of Ontario.

Glossary

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RUTAC: Rating and Underwriting Technical Advisory Committee at FSCO.

SABS: Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule.

SOP: Actuarial Standards of Practice.

Strategy: The Auto Insurance Cost and Rate Reduction Strategy.

The Council: Consumer’s Council of Canada.

TPL: Third party liability coverage.

TPL-BI: Third party liability bodily injury coverage.

TPL-PD: Third party liability property damage coverage.

TPL-DC: Third party liability direct compensation property damage coverage.

UA: Uninsured automobile coverage.

UM: Underinsured motorist coverage.

Province of Ontario – Ministry of Finance Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – 2014 Annual Report 1

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 Purpose of the Report

In September 2010, the Government of Ontario (Government) introduced major reforms (Reforms) to the Ontario automobile insurance system with the intent to control insurance costs, increase choices available to consumers, and simplify processes in the automobile insurance system. Further to these Reforms, the Government initiated the Auto Insurance Cost and Rate Reduction Strategy (Strategy) as part of the 2013 Ontario Budget1 (2013 Budget).

As part of the Strategy and with the goal to increase transparency and accountability, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) engaged KPMG LLP (KPMG) to prepare independent annual Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Reports (Annual Reports) in 2014 and 2015. In addition to the 2014 and 2015 Annual Reports, the MOF requested KPMG to prepare an interim report (Interim Report) to address some specific issues. The Interim Report was delivered to the MOF on April 14, 2014 and is available on the MOF’s website2. This report is the 2014 Annual Report.

1.2 Scope of the Interim Report and Annual Reports

The Interim Report reviewed changes experienced in automobile insurance claim costs, rates, and premiums as a result of the Reforms and the Strategy, and discussed the action steps suggested by some of the insurers3 who provide private passenger automobile (PPA) insurance in Ontario. The Interim Report summarized quantitative and qualitative analyses that were designed to:

― Address how PPA insurance claim costs and premiums were affected by the Reforms at the industry level;

― Estimate the decrease in claim costs following the Reforms and provide an overview of how the decreases were distributed;

― Determine whether any decreases in claim costs had resulted in decreases in automobile insurance rates as a result of the Reforms;

― Comment on the effect that the uncertainty within the Ontario automobile insurance system has on the system at the industry level, particularly with regards to automobile insurance premiums;

1 The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “2013 Ontario Budget Chapter IV: Tax, Pension and Financial Services”, last modified May 2, 2013. Accessed on September 20, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html#ch4c. 2 KPMG LLP, “Province of Ontario Ministry of Finance Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – Interim Report”, final release April 14, 2014. Accessed on September 12, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/kpmg-expert-report.pdf. 3 In this report, the term “insurers” is defined as organizations that provide insurance coverage, such as a stock insurance organization or a mutual insurance organization, including both Canadian domiciled and branches of foreign organizations.


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― Address how PPA insurance claim costs and premiums are affected by the Strategy at the industry level; and

― Provide a progress report and suggested action steps.

The Annual Reports are to review the impact of the Reforms and the Strategy on automobile insurance claim costs and rates, comment on the effectiveness of the auto insurance marketplace in providing affordable premiums to consumers, and where appropriate, make recommendations to the Government on further actions that may be considered by the Government and other stakeholders within the PPA insurance system to meet the Government’s claim costs and average automobile insurance rate reduction targets proposed in the 2013 Budget.

Specifically, as agreed with the MOF, in the 2014 Annual Report we:

― Update, based upon the most recent data available, the quantitative and qualitative analyses presented in the Interim Report to:

― identify any decreases in PPA insurance claim costs since the Reforms; and

― explore whether any of the identified decreases in PPA insurance claim costs have resulted in decreases in automobile insurance rates;

― Provide consideration of recommendations for further possible actions that could be taken by the Government and other automobile insurance stakeholders to achieve the Government’s 15% average rate reduction target for Ontario PPA insurance by the end of August 2015; and

― Consider ongoing Government initiatives and whether they will alleviate claim cost pressures within the Ontario PPA insurance system.

We note that the Financial Services Commission of Ontario (FSCO) measured the rate reduction that has been achieved to date as a result of the Strategy. The results of this analysis were made public in a statement by the Ontario Minister of Finance4.

1.3 Organization of the 2014 Annual Report

In addition to Appendices A through F, this report is organized in the following six parts:

― Executive Summary; ― Introduction; ― Statement of the Issue; ― Approach; ― Summary of Independent Actuarial Analysis and Surveys; and ― Observations and Recommendations.

4 The Minister of Finance noted on October 16, 2014 that Ontario drivers have seen a six percent reduction in insurance rates.


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1.4 Complete 2014 Annual Report

This executive summary is an integral part of the complete 2014 Annual Report and should not be distributed separately from the entire report. The report contains critical information regarding distribution and use restrictions as well as a complete description of our approach. Appendices are included to document the findings presented in this report and to provide background. The appendices are an integral part of the 2014 Annual Report. Judgments about the conclusions drawn in this Executive Summary should be made only after considering the report in its entirety. Any use or reliance on the 2014 Annual Report by any third party is done at their own risk. KPMG will not be liable for the consequences of any third party acting upon or relying upon any information or conclusions contained in this report. We remain available to answer any questions that may arise regarding our report. We assume that the user(s) of this report will seek such explanation as to any matter in question.

1.5 Approach

The following three steps were used to support the findings and recommendations presented in the 2014 Annual Report:

― Analysis of the General Insurance Statistical Agency (GISA) data as at December 31, 20135;

― Incorporation of the results and findings from the Interim Report, including the information collected through a survey process conducted in early 2014 involving major Ontario automobile insurers (Interim Report Survey); and

― Summarization and analysis of the information collected through a survey directed at other stakeholders (e.g., non-insurer) of the Ontario automobile insurance system (2014 Annual Report Survey).

1.6 Summary of the Interim Report

The 2014 Annual Report builds on the analysis and information presented in the Interim Report. The Interim Report was prepared using the following three approaches:

― Analysis of property and casualty (P&C) insurers financial statements as at December 31, 2013; ― Analysis of GISA data as at June 30, 20136; and ― Summarization of information collected through the Interim Report Survey.

In Appendix A, we summarize the findings presented in the Interim Report findings as well as the action steps that were suggested by insurers who participated in the Interim Report Survey.

5 GISA publishes exhibits presenting historical accident year loss development, reported at the end of successive six-month periods for the latest fifteen year. These exhibits are published twice a year. The year-end report, including data as of December 31 of the previous year, is usually published in June or July and the mid-year report, including data as of June 30 of the same year, is usually published in November or December. The data presented in the December 31, 2013 exhibits are the most recent data available. 6 The June 30, 2013 GISA data was the most recently available data at the time the Interim Report was prepared.


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Due to the time constraints involved in producing the Interim Report, the Interim Report Survey was only distributed to executives from insurers providing PPA insurance in Ontario. Recognizing that other stakeholders of the Ontario automobile insurance system may have a different perspective than that presented by the insurers, it was noted in the Interim Report that the 2014 Annual Report would include consultation with additional stakeholders through a second survey process.

The Interim Report also contains background information about the automobile insurance system. This information is not repeated in this report. Readers are referred to the following sections of the Interim Report for further information:

― Section 1.6 Rates vs. Premiums; ― Appendix B – Best Practices for Actuarial Involvement in the Rate Regulatory Review; ― Appendix C – Primer on the P&C Insurance Industry; and ― Appendix D – Actuary’s Role in the Insurance Industry.

1.7 Independent Actuarial Analysis and Surveys

To assess how the Reforms affected PPA insurance claim costs and average rates at the industry level we perform an independent actuarial analysis and reviewed the responses that we received from both the Interim Report Survey and the 2014 Annual Report Survey.

1.7.1 Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of the Reforms

Our independent actuarial analysis is presented in Appendix B of this report. As part of our independent actuarial analysis we analyzed the impact of the Reforms on claim costs and premiums. Based on our analysis we discuss estimated impact of the Reforms on claim cost level and claim cost trends, as well as examine changes in average premium and average rate.

1.7.1.1 Impact of Reforms on Insurance Claim Costs

Our analysis indicates that there is a strong inter-dependency between the estimated claim cost trends (both pre- and post-Reforms) and the impact of Reforms on claim cost levels. Consequently estimates of claim cost trends, pre- and post-Reforms, as well as the estimates of the impacts of Reforms on claim cost levels should be extracted from the same modelling approach, with the same underlying data and assumptions, and should be read and interpreted conjointly for a given coverage and sub-coverage. In other words, the impacts of Reforms on claim cost levels shown in the last column of Table 1.1 should not be used in combination with claim cost trends stemming from a different modelling approach or data source.


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Table 1.1: Summary of Estimates of Claim Cost Trends and Reforms Impacts by Main Coverage

Coverage7 Trends

Pre-2010 Reforms

Trends Post-2010 Reforms

Reforms Impacts on Claim

Cost Levels8

Total Third Party Liability and Underinsured Motorist 3.9% 4.0% 0%

Total Accident Benefits and Uninsured Automobile 14.9% 0.7% -43.2%

Total Compulsory Coverages 10.2% 2.7% -25.7%

Collision -1.4% -1.4% 0%

Comprehensive -3.2% -3.2% 0%

Total Physical Damages -1.9% -1.9% 0%

Total All Coverages 8.1%9 1.7%10 -21.6%11

Table 1.1 shows that:

― The pre-Reforms cost trend was significant in that it was more than 10% per year for Total Compulsory Coverages.

― The Reforms appear to have had a significant impact on claim cost trends; based on the first three years of data, the claim cost trend is estimated at 2.7% for Total Compulsory Coverages.

Claim cost trends reflect two components: economic inflation and social influences. While economic inflation takes into account changes in the price of goods and services covered by insurance, social influences include changes in propensity to claim, court practices, and legal precedents. Based on our analysis, pre-Reforms, the claim cost for a policy with all the compulsory and physical damages coverages listed in Table 1.1 was expected to increase on average by 8.1% per year. The analysis also indicates that without the Reforms, the claim cost trend would likely have continued to increase at that same pace. In contrast, our analysis indicates that the claim cost for all coverages has been increasing on average by 1.7% per year post-Reforms. In comparison, the general inflation as measured by CPI reached 2.3%, 0.8% and 1.2% for 2011 through 2013 respectively. To date, the Reforms seem to have been successful in controlling the claim cost trends towards the general inflation level.

7 Trends and impacts of Reforms are shown by sub-coverage in Table 5.1. 8 See Appendix B, Exhibit A, Corresponding Segment, Page 6. 9 Weighted based on 2009 ultimate loss costs. 10 Weighted based on 2013 ultimate loss costs. 11 Weighted based on 2009 ultimate loss costs that have been trended by one year.


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Our analysis shows a claim cost reduction of just above 25% for total compulsory coverages and 21.6% for total coverages.

At the outset, the Reforms were expected result in transfer of claims from accident benefits to third party liability bodily injury. Our analysis of post-Reforms experience does not show evidence of such a transfer. We note that there is still significant uncertainty in the current industry estimates of post-Reforms ultimate claim costs and trends, and that there may yet be a transfer of claims between accident benefits and third party liability bodily injury.

1.7.1.2 Impact of Reforms on Insurance Premiums

An expectation of the Reforms was that if claim cost levels reduced, then average automobile insurance premiums could also be reduced. Furthermore, if post-Reforms claim cost trends reduced, future annual premium increases would be lower than the level of pre-Reforms increases. However, in the pre-Reforms environment, average premiums did not increase enough to match the claim trends, leading to inadequate average premium at the time of implementation of the Reforms. The adoption of the Reforms improved rate adequacy (i.e., brought premiums more in line with claim costs), reduced the need for substantial rate increases to return premiums to profitability and appeared to have curbed claims cost trends. Given the lag between historical claim trends and rates, the recent decreases in automobile insurance costs have not yet been fully reflected in rates.

Conceptually, in order for the insurer to maintain the same profitability level, average premium should increase proportionately to the claim trends – assuming that all other variables remain constant. Otherwise, if the year-over-year change in average premium is less than the claim trends, the renewed premium would become less profitable or could even become unprofitable (i.e., the premium would be less than expected claim costs and expenses). To return to rate adequacy, the year-over-year change in average premium would need to increase by more than the claim trends12; or other initiatives need to take place.

Our analysis of premium and claim trends between 2003 and 2012 demonstrates that during this period premiums were becoming increasingly less adequate. We note that the overall level of average premium has not decreased post-Reforms. As noted above, one reason for this is that the average premiums were inadequate pre-Reforms (i.e., the pre-Reforms average premium did not increase enough to match the claim trends).

Confirming the notion of pre-Reforms rate inadequacy, the industry was very unprofitable with loss ratios of 95% and 89% respectively for 2009 and 2010. These ratios are significantly higher than the target loss ratio of approximately 69%13 that is generally considered adequate for a reasonable return.

Our analysis indicates that the Reforms have significantly contributed to reducing the claim cost levels and claim cost trends and, therefore, have also contributed to stabilizing premium rates in Ontario. Without the reduction in claim cost levels and claim cost trends, significant rate increases would have been needed in order to restore profitability. In addition, further annual rate increases would have been needed to cover the expected claim cost trends.

12 An alternative would be to reduce coverage to restore profitability. 13 We describe the permissible claim ratio of 69% in Appendix C, Section 10.1.3 of the Interim Report.


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1.7.2 Qualitative Analysis based on Summary of Surveys

We summarize the respondents’ comments from the Interim Report and the 2014 Annual Report surveys to capture and demonstrate the range of comments received from the respondents.

1.7.2.1 Impact of the Reforms

As a result of the Reforms, Ontario automobile insurance consumers were given a broader range of choices for insurance coverage. This increased the consumer’s responsibility to understand the automobile insurance product, and at the same time triggered a need for better consumer information to assist consumers with understanding the automobile insurance product and their decision making. Many consumers are not aware of the post-Reforms changes in coverage options, and many consumers may not have an understanding of the treatment required (and the related costs) to recover from injuries sustained in a motor vehicle accident. Consumers are often unaware of the level of coverage that they have purchased until they need access to the coverage.

Issues, such as uncertainties surrounding the definitions of the minor injury guideline (MIG) and catastrophic impairment, the unpredictably of outcomes from the dispute resolution system (DRS), and the complexity of the claim process, are leading claimants to increasingly retain and rely on legal counsel for all types of injuries. Moreover, stakeholders have indicated that delays attributable to the mediation14 and arbitration backlogs are resulting in delays in claimants accessing required healthcare services; this may lead to missed opportunities for early rehabilitation and increased costs in the longer term. In addition, the complexity of the claim process and delays in claim adjudication often result in additional medical examinations and assessments having to be performed.

Due to the $2,000 limit on fees and expenses for to assessments or examinations, there has been a significant reduction in the fees paid to the professionals providing the assessments. Consequently, respondents to the Annual Report Survey observed that this has led to the use of less experienced providers, more limited assessments, and reports that do not necessarily follow best practices and professional standards. There was a concern expressed by some stakeholders that the use of less experienced providers has led to more disputes and increased costs to the system. Others noted that setting standards for third-party medical examinations may reduce friction, legal costs and dispute resolution cases.

1.7.2.2 Anti-Fraud Recommendations

More than half of the insurers who responded to the Interim Report survey, representing approximately 40% of the industry, reported being involved with industry anti-fraud initiatives. There is a general agreement among all PPA insurance system stakeholders that implementation of some of the Anti-Fraud Task Force recommendations has prevented costs and premiums from increasing to a level that would be unsustainable; and generally PPA insurance system stakeholders look forward to additional recommendations from the Anti-Fraud Task Force being implemented. During the Annual

14 The mediation backlog was cleared by FSCO in August 2013.


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Report survey, healthcare providers viewed the pilot of the Professional Credential Tracker15 (PCT) tool as a valuable program. However, some Representative Stakeholders commented that certain recommendations are actually adding costs to the system. At the same time, they also acknowledge the value that these recommendations bring to the anti-fraud initiative.

With respect to fraud as it relates to the towing industry, one comment received was that the Anti-Fraud Task Force recommendations do not take into consideration a key factor leading to fraud, which is the decreased presence of police at accident scenes with the introduction of self-reporting through Collision Reporting Centres. An effect of this change is that information related to the accident or access to potential witnesses may be lost, which may lead to an increase in opportunistic and premeditated fraud.

1.7.2.3 Dispute Resolution System (DRS)

Due to the timing of the Interim Report Survey, insurers were not able to comment on the “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”16 (DRS Report). The Representative Stakeholders provided comments, and some noted that the current DRS is inefficient and costly, which is increasing costs and premiums. These stakeholders also provided comments on some of the recommendations from the DRS Report.

― Recommendation 1 from the DRS Report: there is a concern that FSCO arbitrators’ knowledge and experience may be lost with the transfer of the DRS to the Public Sector Administrative Tribunal17;

― Recommendation 9 from the DRS Report: the removal of the right to sue poses a serious concern for both the plaintiff and defence bar, where many believe that this effectively eliminates the ability to rely on case law for interpretation issues Some stakeholders suggested that this may increase disputes as neither plaintiff nor defence counsel will have case law to rely upon;

― Recommendation 17 from the DRS Report: for claims that include future medical and rehabilitation benefits, a delay of two years before settlement may make it more difficult to come to a resolution of the issues;

― Recommendation 25 from the DRS Report:

― the requirement that arbitration hearings for cases under $10,000 be conducted as paper reviews could lead to overuse and even fraud, as claimants could simply split up related

15 The Professional Credential Tracker (PCT) “is the first phase of a pilot project to help Ontario regulated health

professionals stay informed of which clinics or health facilities are using their information to submit auto insurance claims. This initiative is one of the recently-introduced measures recognized and endorsed by the Ontario Auto Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force in their Interim Report. It is being investigated by a Working Group chaired by the Financial Services Commission of Ontario.” Accessed on October 4, 2014. www.aboutpct.ca/About-PCT/index.shtml. 16 Ministry of Finance, “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”, February 2014. Accessed on October 15, 2014, http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html. 17 Bill 15 – Fighting Fraud and Reducing Automobile Insurance Rates Act, 2014, which has received second reading, is proposing that the DRS be moved to the License Appeal Tribunal.

http://www.aboutpct.ca/About-PCT/index.shtml

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html


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claims to ensure that each split up portion of the claims would fall under the $10,000 maximum for paper reviews;

― some stakeholders mentioned that they are not in favour of restricting the length of medical assessment reports; and

― there was a suggestion that a triage process be developed to review the disputes and identify claims of higher priority (e.g., those for which the specific treatment is time sensitive) that should be expedited through the DRS.

1.7.2.4 Impact of the Strategy

While most insurers agree that the Government’s current Strategy will reduce claim costs, a majority of the insurers are concerned with the mismatch in timing between the eventual decrease in claim costs and the targeted18 overall 15% average reduction in automobile insurance rates by August 2015. There is also concern among the insurers that the Reforms were intended to reduce claim costs and stabilize rates, and that the Reforms were not necessarily meant to reduce rates. The insurers indicated that, to reduce rates, the Strategy would have to reduce claim costs further. Insurers believe that reduction in overall claim costs and expenses cannot come from anti-fraud initiatives alone and that there needs to be an emphasis on reducing the administrative costs such as disbursements during dispute resolution or tort claims, assessments, and forms completion.

A few stakeholders commented that the Government’s rate reduction target of 15% is likely not to be met by the target date next year, and that the Government might want to consider extending the target date. There were stakeholders who suggested that the Government should also not begin any new initiatives, as a number of significant cost reduction initiatives are already underway (e.g., anti-fraud, changes to DRS) and the impacts have not yet been fully realized or understood.

1.7.2.5 Issues and Uncertainty in the PPA Insurance System

The cross section of stakeholders responding to the two surveys conducted during 2014 generally identified similar issues and uncertainties in the PPA insurance system. However, it is not surprising that the various stakeholders sometimes tend to look at the issues and uncertainties from different perspectives. Stakeholders identified the following uncertainties in the PPA insurance system:

― Potential erosion of the existing catastrophic impairment definition; ― Definition of minor injuries that would fall under the MIG; ― Limitation period and discoverability of bodily injury claims and transfer of some claim costs from

accident benefits to bodily injury; ― Definition of what constitutes “economic loss”; ― Changes to DRS processes; ― Use of FSCO benchmarks in rate reviews; and

18 The Government has set a target of 15% average automobile insurance rate reduction between August 2013 and August 2015.


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― Eligibility for automobile insurance insureds to claim optional benefits regardless of whether the options were purchased.

1.7.2.6 Competitiveness of the Ontario PPA Insurance Market

There are opposing views on whether the Ontario PPA insurance market is sufficiently competitive. Some respondents do not believe that the PPA insurance system is competitive and efficient in providing affordable premiums. Others believe that the entire system should be reviewed for opportunities to increase efficiency and reduce costs overall.

1.8 Observations and Recommendations

Consistent with the objectives of this report, the recommendations focus on potential further actions that could benefit the overall Ontario automobile insurance system. There is a broad consensus among the responding stakeholders that the Ontario PPA insurance system needs reform, that a number of positive steps towards reform have been taken, and that there is more to be done. Related to this, the responding stakeholders have a strong desire to participate in improving the PPA insurance system in Ontario.

We want to thank all of the organizations who responded to the surveys for their participation. The breadth of comments received are a good reminder that different stakeholders define a well-functioning PPA insurance system differently given their respective priorities and interests, and the Government has a difficult task of trying to balance these often competing views.

1.8.1 General Observations and Recommendations

These recommendations are directed at areas that would benefit the overall Ontario automobile insurance system rather than address the concerns specific to some stakeholders. We believe that actions taken by the Government and/or other stakeholders based on these recommendations, coupled with the Government initiatives that are underway, could result in a more efficient PPA insurance system – one that is more transparent, with less uncertainty, and easier to understand.

1.8.1.1 Consumer Representation

As discussed in Section 4.3.2, we were not able to identify an independent organization that would represent the concerns of the broader group of consumers (i.e., both those who make an insurance claim and those who never make a claim). We also heard that significant deficiencies still exist in the education of consumers regarding Ontario automobile insurance. We suggest that consideration be given to establishing an independent organization whose mandate would be to represent all consumers in Ontario who purchase PPA insurance. Such an organization would be charged with balancing the views and needs of all consumers, and could provide a voice to all Ontario automobile insurance consumers. Some of the potential benefits of such an organization include:

― Providing consumers with tools to better understand the PPA insurance product;


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― Representing consumers in any discussions pertaining to potential changes to Ontario’s PPA insurance system; and

― Guiding automobile insurance consumers injured in motor vehicle accidents (MVAs) through the claim process.

1.8.1.2 Develop a Deeper Understanding of the Impact of the Reforms and Strategy

Many significant cost reduction initiatives have been planned and/or implemented (e.g., anti-fraud, changes to DRS) and the resulting impact of these initiatives has not yet been fully realized or understood. There was a general expectation that these initiatives may result in further cost reduction; and that given the lag between implementation and effect, these initiatives should be allowed to mature, without the Government proposing and or implementing additional broad measures.

We believe that additional initiatives would be required in order to support the target average rate reduction of 15% by August 2015. Any additional initiatives should target specific issues (rather than broad product reform) to minimize potential ripple effects that may result in unintended consequences. Attempts should also be made to continually understand the cost and benefit of initiatives that have been and to be implemented. The Government needs to strike a balance between the need for additional initiatives and maintaining stability in the system.

1.8.1.3 Health Claims for Auto Insurance System

A few of the stakeholders suggested that data from the Health Claims for Auto Insurance System (HCAI) should be considered if the Government would like to gain a deeper understanding of the full impact of the Reforms and Strategy. However, it is important to note that several factors19 limit the quality and usefulness of the data. As such, it would be worthwhile to continue to improve the quality and quantity of the data reported through HCAI. If data from HCAI is to be relied on to inform decision making, it should be subject to vigorous validation testing and quality control. When data collected through HCAI becomes sufficiently robust, the Government may then explore performing more detailed analyses of the Reforms and Strategy based on the data. The expectation is that this could assist with developing a deeper understanding of healthcare related costs in the system.

1.8.1.4 Sharing and Monitoring Information from the PPA Insurance System

Enhanced sharing and monitoring of information would include improved efficiency as well as enhanced transparency and accountability. Efficiency improvements could be achieved by sharing information amongst the various stakeholders (i.e., the sharing of information may result in less divergence in views across stakeholder groups and enhance competition in the insurance system).

We think that there are merits to the view that additional sharing and monitoring of information would be of value to the PPA insurance system. Information can be shared in a number of ways, including through independent reports such as this. We note that another advantage of enhanced sharing and

19 For example, HCAI data only includes costs from approved invoices and does not include disputed costs or reserves for costs that are expected to be incurred in the future.


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monitoring of information from the PPA insurance system would be to allow for early detection of issues that may lead to a disruption in the stability of the automobile insurance system. Additional information could also lead to reducing the level of uncertainty in the system.

1.8.1.5 Initiatives that May Reduce Claim Frequency

We suggest that there may be opportunities in the Ontario PPA insurance system to consider initiatives that may reduce the frequency of claims. One suggestion that could be considered would be for the Government to lead initiatives aimed at reducing the frequency of MVA in Ontario. Other jurisdictions in Canada have been very successful in developing important public awareness campaigns aimed at changing driver behaviors to reduce the number of fatal accidents.

Many insurers are currently considering taking advantage of newer technologies that are expected to have a favorable impact on road safety and could contribute to reducing the frequency of MVAs. For example, the use of telematics not only rewards safer drivers, it is also thought to contribute to changing driver behaviour with the potential to reduce the overall accident frequency. The Government could contribute to this initiative by continuing to foster an environment where the rate regulator demonstrates openness to such programs20, in particular those that would include a component dedicated to improving drivers’ behaviour and that would, as a result, be expected to have a favorable impact on the overall claim frequency.

1.8.1.6 Other General Observations and Recommendations

The following is a list of potential actions to be considered by the Government and stakeholders:

― Publish the annual change in the average automobile insurance premium paid by drivers who have not had any accidents in the past year;

― Increase the transparency of investigation and inspection reports performed by Ontario’s public health units and health regulatory colleges21;

― Develop industry wide standards of practice for claim adjustment and settlement, and develop mechanism for determine adherence to these standards;

― Develop mechanisms to assess the impact of legal fees on costs to improve transparency;

― Encourage the use of new technology and technology improvements to reduce the costs in the PPA insurance system;

― Monitor the availability of qualified medical examiners; and

― Remain knowledgeable of the evolving opinions of stakeholders in the PPA insurance system.

20 We note that FSCO published a bulletin on usage-based automobile insurance pricing in Ontario. https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-05-13.aspx. Accessed November 7, 2014. 21 We note that on October 5, 2014, the Ministry of Health announced changes that will enhance transparency of regulatory colleges.

https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-05-13.aspx


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1.8.2 Specific Recommendations

We present specific recommendations that are aimed at reducing uncertainty and costs.

1.8.2.1 FSCO Benchmarks

FSCO publishes benchmark assumptions such as loss trends and Reforms loss cost adjustment factors. Actuaries in Canada who prepare insurers’ rate filings follow the Standards of Practice promulgated by the Actuarial Standards Board. In our discussions with insurers for the Interim Report, many of them noted that they were instructed to provide indications using the FSCO benchmark factors as part of their rate filings. Many insurers’ actuaries have expressed the need to access the more detailed documentation and working papers underlying FSCO benchmark factors. In the spirit of the Standards of Practice, the exchange of information would allow insurers’ actuaries to review and better understand FSCO’s approach and assumptions and thus gain greater comfort in FSCO benchmark factors22.

We recommend that FSCO continue to work with representative actuaries to determine which underlying aspects of the benchmark factors23 can and should be shared with actuaries. Increased understanding between FSCO and representative actuaries may increase transparency and reduce uncertainty in the future. A reduction in uncertainty will aid in reducing PPA insurance rates.

1.8.2.2 FSCO Processes

We understand that the Rating and Underwriting Technical Advisory Committee (RUTAC), comprised of company representatives and actuaries, provides input to FSCO on its processes and proposed rate filing guidelines. We would encourage FSCO to continue to involve RUTAC early in any process that requires input and feedback. We would also encourage FSCO to provide an additional level of transparency and accountability by publishing on its website the role and membership composition of RUTAC. Continued and increased interaction with RUTAC by FSCO may help reduce uncertainty and provide stability to automobile insurance rates.

1.8.2.3 Recommendations for Cost Savings and Reducing Uncertainty based on Stakeholder Suggestions

We received numerous suggestions from stakeholders through the two surveys conducted during 2014. We present recommendations from survey respondents for actions to be considered by the Government and/or stakeholders in the Ontario PPA insurance system.

22 It is MOF’s understanding that to promote greater transparency, where insurer’s proposed rates are not supported, FSCO began sharing actuarial reports and summaries to support FSCO’s rate decisions in the review of insurer PPA rate filings. These new processes were designed to enhance insurer understanding of FSCO’s analysis of rating filings and its decisions in the fall and winter of 2013-14; the processes have now been incorporated into FSCO rate filing procedures. 23 It is MOF’s understanding that FSCO has provided additional detailed information on how FSCO’s benchmark on Reforms savings and loss trends were estimated. This is included in FSCO’s Technical Notes as an Appendix. The Appendix also outlines that there are data issues for one large insurer that reported to GISA. Due to confidentiality reasons FSCO cannot release information that would identify specific insurers.


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1.8.2.3.1 Medical Examinations

Government and/or stakeholders may consider continuing to set delivery standards and enact oversight requirements for third party medical examinations with a view to reducing friction, legal costs and backlog in the DRS. Another recommendation would be to conduct further study on the use of peer reviews of medical assessments to aid in dispute resolution.

1.8.2.3.2 Expand Use of HCAI Data and Implement Professional Credential Tracker

Several stakeholders suggested that HCAI data may help insurers increase the efficiency of their claim settlement process by providing insurers with additional data to analyze. Healthcare providers who have had a chance to use the Professional Credential Tracker praise the tools for giving healthcare providers a means of combating fraud committed in their names.

1.8.2.3.3 Legal Fees

Based on the responses to the 2014 Annual Report Survey, legal fees may be contributing substantially to costs in the system. Recommendations with respect to legal fees included implementing a cap on lawyers’ contingency fees and providing for an independent consumer representative to assist consumers with the claims settlement process such that consumers may not need to hire lawyers to assist them with the process24.

1.8.2.3.4 Administration of Medical Benefits

Smaller insurers may not have the same volume of medical benefits claims as large insurers to give their claim adjusters a similar level of experience. In order to apply more consistent claims settlement processes, smaller insurers might consider retaining external administrators of medical benefits who have the necessary scale. Alternatively, the group of small P&C insurers could work through the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) to form a medical benefits administrator, similar to the way the Facility Association enables the industry to deal with high-risk drivers.

1.8.2.3.5 Further Study on Additional Tier of Limits Greater than $50,000

Some stakeholders mentioned that a limit of $50,000 for claimants found to be seriously injured but not catastrophically impaired is sometimes insufficient to treat injuries. These stakeholders are concerned that if the injury is not sufficiently treated when the $50,000 limit is reached, the injury may worsen and a catastrophic claim could be triggered at a later date. Research and analysis should be conducted on the merits of adding another defined tier of injury with a limit greater than $50,000. Further study could assess whether an additional tier would benefit claimants who require extensive

24 With an organization that walks claimants independently through the process, the need to seek legal counsel would be reserved only for the more serious cases.


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therapies and expert treatments while reducing overall costs to the system by reducing the number of catastrophic claims and the need for legal counsel.

1.9 Preview of 2015 Annual Report

The purpose of the 2015 Annual Report will be to continue to provide both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Strategy. The following approaches may be used:

― Review the progress of initiatives implemented under the Strategy, such as Bill 15, Fighting Fraud and Reducing Automobile Insurance Rates Act, 2014 as to whether they alleviate cost pressures within the automobile insurance system;

― Report on the progress related to the Government’s two-year average rate reduction target of 15%;

― Update the quantitative analysis of GISA data with data as of December 31, 2014; and

― Assess the effectiveness of the auto insurance marketplace in providing affordable premiums to consumers, particularly from the point of view of market competitiveness.

We do not anticipate conducting large-scale survey of stakeholders in the insurance system, but we may contact individual stakeholders for clarifications.

The 2015 Annual Report was originally scheduled to be released in August 2015. To provide for an opportunity to reflect data and input as of August 2015, as discussed with the Government, we expect to deliver the 2015 Annual Report during the Fall of 2015.


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2 INTRODUCTION In September 2010, the Government introduced Reforms to the Ontario automobile insurance system with the intent to control insurance costs, increase choices available to consumers, and simplify processes in the automobile insurance system. Further to these Reforms, the Government initiated the Strategy as part of the 2013 Budget. As part of the Strategy, and with the goal to increase transparency and accountability, the MOF engaged KPMG to produce three independent reports: the Interim Report, the 2014 Annual Report, and the 2015 Annual Report. The Interim Report was delivered to the MOF on April 14, 2014 and is available on the MOF’s website25. This report is the 2014 Annual Report.

2.1 Distribution and Use

We understand that the 2014 Annual Report will be a publicly available document. We consent to such distribution on the condition that the Government will distribute this report in its entirety including all text and supporting appendices rather than any excerpts.

Any use or reliance on the 2014 Annual Report by any third party is done at their own risk. KPMG will not be liable for the consequences of any third party acting upon or relying upon any information or conclusions contained in this report. The appendices attached in support of our findings are an integral part of the 2014 Annual Report. Judgments about the conclusions drawn in this report should be made only after considering the 2014 Annual Report in its entirety. In the event that the 2014 Annual Report is made available in different languages (e.g., French) or in a different format than Adobe portable document format (PDF), if there are any discrepancies in those versions compared to the PDF version, the PDF version in English shall prevail.

2.2 Confidentiality and Conflict of Interest

As with all our client engagements, we approach the 2014 Annual Report with strict confidentiality.

KPMG has a dedicated insurance practice, comprising audit, tax and advisory professionals. We also have a substantial Actuarial Practice. Through our experience providing services to the insurance sector, as well as our involvement with other organizations related to the automobile insurance sector, we have developed extensive knowledge about the Ontario’s automobile insurance system. Based on this background we bring a broad objective approach to this report, and are well positioned to provide the services required by the Ministry.

All KPMG team members are subject to strict rules governing professional conduct as set out by KPMG’s internal policies. Furthermore, all Fellows and Associates of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) and the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) are subject to the Rules of Professional Conduct of these organizations, as are members of the Chartered Professional Accountants of Ontario (CPA Ontario), who are subject to similar rules of professional conduct concerning independence and

25 KPMG LLP, “Province of Ontario Ministry of Finance Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – Interim Report”, final release April 14, 2014. Accessed on September 12, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/kpmg-expert-report.pdf.


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conflicts of interest. The maintenance of strict client confidentiality is a cornerstone of the codes of conduct of KPMG, as well as of those of the CIA, the CAS and CPA Ontario. In accordance with the above-mentioned codes of conduct, we are free of any conflict of interest in producing the 2014 Annual Report for the Ministry.


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3 STATEMENT OF THE ISSUE

3.1 Background

Chapter IV of the 2013 Budget states the following:

From 2006 to 2010, Ontario experienced a substantial increase in claim costs due to fraud in the system and overutilization of benefits. The significant increase in costs was primarily caused by increases in accident benefits claim costs (for example, exams and assessments, attendant care and housekeeping). While claim costs for repairs to physical damage to vehicles remained stable, claim costs for certain benefits more than doubled.

...

In September 2010, the government introduced major reforms to Ontario's auto insurance system to address the substantial increase in claim costs. The September 2010 reforms controlled costs, increased consumer choice and simplified processes in the auto insurance system. As a result of the reforms and ongoing government action, costs have been reduced and rates have stabilized, and are now starting to decline.26

The Government initiated the Strategy as part of the 2013 Budget. The key elements of the Strategy pertain to anti-fraud measures, an average PPA insurance rate reduction target of 15%27, licensing of healthcare providers in the automobile insurance system, transformation of the automobile insurance Dispute Resolution System (DRS), and creation of “a transparency and accountability mechanism in the form of an independent annual report by outside experts on the impact of auto insurance reforms introduced to date on both costs and premiums28.” The 2013 Budget also called upon insurers to offer lower rates for consumers with safe driving records.

As noted above, one of the key components of the Government’s Strategy involves a reduction target for the average Ontario PPA insurance rate. As the total premium paid by policyholders is dependent on many variables29, which can change from one policy period to the next, it is important to recognize

26 The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “2013 Ontario Budget Chapter IV: Tax, Pension and Financial Services”, Section C, last modified May 2, 2013. Accessed on September 20, 2014, http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html. 27 Throughout this report, any references to the Government’s targeted average automobile insurance rate reduction pertain to the Government’s average automobile insurance rate reduction target of 8% by August 2014 and 15% by August 2015. 28 The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “2013 Ontario Budget Chapter IV: Tax, Pension and Financial Services”, Section C, last modified May 2, 2013. Accessed on September 20, 2014, http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html. 29 Some examples of variables include level of coverage purchased and type of vehicle insured.

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html


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that a reduction in PPA insurance rates is not analogous to a reduction in automobile insurance premiums.30

3.2 Purpose and Scope of 2014 Annual Report

In order to promote transparency and accountability, the MOF engaged KPMG to review the Ontario automobile insurance industry costs as well as changes to automobile insurance premiums paid by Ontario drivers and to make recommendations on further actions that may be considered in order to meet the Government's average automobile insurance rate reduction targets proposed in the 2013 Budget. In addition to the 2014 and 2015 Annual Reports, the MOF requested KPMG to prepare an Interim Report in advance of the 2014 Annual Report to address certain specific issues. As agreed with the MOF, the 2014 Annual Report summarizes quantitative and qualitative analyses that were designed to:

― Update, based upon the most recent data available, the quantitative and qualitative analyses presented in the Interim Report to:

― identify any decreases in PPA insurance claim costs since the Reforms; and

― explore whether any of the identified decreases in PPA insurance claim costs have resulted in decreases in automobile insurance rates;

― Provide consideration of recommendations for further possible actions that could be taken by the Government and other automobile insurance stakeholders to achieve the Government’s 15% average rate reduction target for Ontario PPA insurance by the end of August 2015; and

― Consider ongoing Government initiatives and whether they will alleviate claim cost pressures within the Ontario PPA insurance system.

We note that the Financial Services Commission of Ontario (FSCO) measured the average rate reduction achieved as a result of the Strategy between August 2013 and August 201431. The Minister of Finance noted on October 16, 2014 that Ontario drivers have seen a six percent reduction in insurance rates. From discussions with MOF, we understand that the average rate change for Ontario PPA for the period between August 16, 2013 and August 15, 2014 is a decrease of 6.03%.

We understand that many organizations have already shared their specific concerns with the Government through different channels such as the recent reports on the Ontario automobile insurance system. These reports include, but are not limited to, the “Final Report of the Ontario

30 For example, when a policyholder increases the level of coverage purchased (e.g., by increasing the limits of coverage, or lowering the deductibles), the premium charged to that policyholder will increase, even if rates remain stable. Other factors, such as a change in the vehicle insured, could also affect the premium even if rates remain stable. 31 The measurement was conducted in accordance with Regulation 237/13 under The Automobile Insurance Rate Stabilization Act, 2003. Accessed November 5, 2014, http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/source/regs/english/2013/elaws_src_regs_r13237_e.htm.

http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/source/regs/english/2013/elaws_src_regs_r13237_e.htm



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Automobile Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force Steering Committee”32 (Anti-Fraud Report), the “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”33 (DRS Report), and the “Towing and Storage Advisory Group – Report and Recommendations to the Ministry of Consumer Services”34 (Towing Report). The Information and recommendations presented in these reports and through other channels are not the repeated in the 2014 Annual Report.

32 Ministry of Finance, “Final Report of the Ontario Automobile Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force Steering Committee”, October 16, 2012. Accessed on October 15, 2014, http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/final-report.html. 33 Ministry of Finance, “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”, February 2014. Accessed on October 15, 2014, http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html. 34 Ministry of Consumer Services, “Towing and Storage Advisory Group – Report and Recommendations to the Ministry of Consumer Services”, March 12, 2014. Accessed on October 15, 2014, http://www.ontariocanada.com/registry/showAttachment.do?postingId=15664&attachmentId=23891.

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/final-report.html


http://www.ontariocanada.com/registry/showAttachment.do?postingId=15664&attachmentId=23891


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4 APPROACH The following three steps were used to support the findings and recommendations presented in the 2014 Annual Report:

― Analysis of the GISA data as of December 31, 201335;

― Incorporation of the results and findings from the Interim Report, including the information collected through the Interim Report Survey; and

― Summarization and analysis of the information collected through the 2014 Annual Report Survey.

4.1 Analysis of GISA Data

GISA36 is a statistical agency that collects P&C insurance statistics on behalf of insurance regulators across Canada. In general, the data collected by GISA is used by actuaries for purposes such as ratemaking and estimation of policy liabilities of insurance products. All P&C insurers underwriting automobile insurance policies in Ontario are required to provide prescribed data to the Automobile Statistical Plan37 (ASP). The prescribed data includes exposures (i.e., number of vehicles insured in a given period), premium written, incurred claims and paid claims. Claim data is generally summarized on an accident year basis, which is one of the most common aggregation methods used by actuaries.

For the Interim Report, the latest available GISA data was as of June 30, 2013. For the 2014 Annual Report, updated GISA data as of December 31, 2013 was available. As discussed in the Interim Report, we perform a more extensive analysis of the GISA data in the 2014 Annual Report (i.e., we perform an actuarial analysis of the estimated ultimate claim costs based on a number actuarial methods instead of relying solely on the incurred claim development method).

Appendix B contains our independent actuarial analysis.

4.2 Interim Report

4.2.1 P&C Insurers Financial Statements

As part of the Interim Report, we reviewed the December 31, 2013 annual statutory financial returns that are filed with Canadian insurance regulators such as the Office of the Superintendent of Financial

35 GISA publishes exhibits presenting historical accident year loss development, reported at the end of successive six-month periods for the latest fifteen year. These exhibits are published twice a year. The year-end report, including data as of December 31 of the previous year, is usually published in June or July and the mid-year report, including data as of June 30 of the same year, is usually published in November or December. The data presented in the December 31, 2013 exhibits are the most recent data available. 36 GISA. Accessed on September 21, 2014. www.gisa.ca/en/. 37 GISA, “Automobile Statistical Plan”. Accessed on September 21, 2014. www.gisa.ca/en/techman/documents/ASP_Manual_v2.4-En.pdf.


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Institutions38 (OSFI) and FSCO. The most recent statutory financial returns are as of June 30, 2014. However, the quarterly returns do not contain sufficient information to review Ontario PPA specifically. As such we do not include an analysis of the June 30, 2014 statutory financial returns in the 2014 Annual Report.

4.2.2 Findings from Interim Report and Information Collected through Interim Report Survey

The 2014 Annual Report builds on the analysis and information presented in the Interim Report, including the results of the Interim Report Survey. As noted in the Interim Report, due to the time constraints involved in producing the Interim Report, the Interim Report Survey was only distributed to executives from insurers providing PPA insurance in Ontario. Recognizing that other stakeholders of the Ontario automobile insurance system may have a different perspective than that presented by the insurers, it was noted in the Interim Report that the 2014 Annual Report would include consultation with additional stakeholders through a second survey process.

In Appendix A, we summarize the findings presented in the Interim Report findings as well as the action steps that were suggested by insurers who participated in the Interim Report Survey.

4.3 2014 Annual Report Survey and Interviews

To meet the mandate of the Interim Report, we developed the Interim Report Survey as a method to collect certain qualitative and quantitative information from representatives of Ontario automobile insurers and the automobile insurance residual markets39 (i.e., Ontario Risk Sharing Pool and Ontario Facility Association). These respondents were offered the opportunity to respond to the survey in writing and/or to meet with us. The survey was sent out in early January 2014, with the responses being returned to us by late February 2014.

For the 2014 Annual Report Survey, we sought to hear from other stakeholders in the Ontario PPA insurance system who would represent different parties and interests. For this purpose, a list of representative stakeholders was identified, in consultation with the MOF, and these organizations were invited to participate in the Annual Report Survey (the Representative Stakeholders).

To ensure consistency in the types of information collected, the questions in the 2014 Annual Report Survey were designed to be similar to the questions included in the Interim Report Survey. Appendix C contains a copy of the 2014 Annual Report Survey.

The 2014 Annual Report Survey was sent to Representative Stakeholders in early July 2014, with the last response being received in early October 2014. Respondents were offered the opportunity to respond to the survey in writing and/or to meet with us (either in person or on the phone) to discuss their responses to the survey. Similar to the Interim Report Survey, respondents could elect to remain

38 OSFI, “Canadian Property and Casualty Insurance Companies Returns and Instructions”, modified date: 2014-02-26. Accessed on September 21, 2014. www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/rtn-rlv/fr-rf/ic-sa/pc-sam/Pages/pc1.aspx. 39 Insurance Bureau of Canada, Facility Association, “Who is insured through Facility Association?” Accessed on March 13, 2014. http://ibc.ca/en/Car_Insurance/Introduction/Facility_Association.asp.

http://ibc.ca/en/Car_Insurance/Introduction/Facility_Association.asp


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anonymous (i.e., not be named in this report). However, all respondents to the 2014 Annual Report Survey indicated that they do not require anonymity.

Appendix D documents the aggregated results of the 2014 Annual Report Survey and interviews, without any analysis or conclusions by KPMG. This appendix is included to capture and demonstrate the range of comments received from the respondents.

We note that comments received from the respondents often reference the most recent Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule (SABS)40, which became effective on September 1, 2010. To assist readers in getting a better understanding of these comments, Appendix E provides a summary of the SABS.

4.3.1 Representative Stakeholders

Table 4.1 shows the complete listing of Representative Stakeholders who received an invitation to participate in the 2014 Annual Report Survey.

Table 4.1: Representative Stakeholders invited to participate in the 2014 Annual Report Survey

Stakeholder Responded

1. The Advocates’ Society ✓

2. Association of Independent Assessment Centres ✓

3. Consumer Representative from the Auto Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force41 ✓

4. Canadian Independent Adjusters’ Association ✓

5. Canadian Institute of Actuaries

6. Coalition of Health Professional Associations in Ontario Automobile Insurance Services

✓

7. Consumers’ Association of Canada

8. Consumers Council of Canada

9. County & District Law Presidents’ Association

10. Fair Association of Victims for Accident Insurance Reform ✓

11. FSCO

12. General Insurance OmbudService

13. Insurance Brokers Association of Ontario ✓

14. OSFI

15. Ontario Association of Chiefs of Police

16. Ontario Bar Association

17. Ontario Federation of Independent Towers ✓

18. Ontario Insurance Adjusters Association ✓

19. Ontario Psychological Association ✓

40 Under Ontario’ Insurance Act, benefits provided under Ontario’s standard automobile insurance policy for insured individuals who are injured in a motor vehicle accident are defined by a regulation titled SABS, regardless of who is at fault. The latest revision to the SABS had an effective date of September 1, 2010. For more information refer to “Ontario Regulation 34/10, Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule”, effective September 1, 2010. Accessed October 7, 2014. http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/regs/english/elaws_regs_100034_e.htm. 41 The Auto Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force ceased to exist upon submission of their final report in November of 2012.

http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/regs/english/elaws_regs_100034_e.htm


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Stakeholder Responded

20. Ontario Rehab Alliance ✓

21. Ontario Trial Lawyers Association ✓

22. Provincial Towing Association (Ontario) Inc. ✓

Thirteen organizations out of the twenty-two surveyed provided responses, either in the form of a written response and/or through interviews. Table 4.1 identifies these respondents with a checkmark. FSCO responded that, as the regulator, it did not believe it was appropriate to respond to the survey as a stakeholder. FSCO did meet with KPMG to provide clarity on issues identified in the Interim Report.

While the Consumers Council of Canada (the Council) did not respond to the 2014 Annual Report Survey, we had a discussion with one of their representatives about the lack of broad consumer representation (see Section 4.3.2).

4.3.2 Lack of Consumer Representation

As can be observed from the list of Representative Stakeholders who chose to respond to the 2014 Annual Report Survey (see Table 4.1), none of the respondents could be seen to represent broader consumer concerns with respect to Ontario automobile insurance (i.e., the concerns of consumers who have not been involved in motor vehicle accidents and as a result, have not made a claim against their automobile insurance coverage). As a result, information collected through the 2014 Annual Report Survey does not include input that directly relates to the point of view of this broader group of Ontario automobile insurance consumers. In our efforts to identify a consumer representative, we consulted with some of the Representative Stakeholders and with the MOF; however, none of these entities were able to identify such a representative.

In explaining why the Council decided not to submit a response to the 2014 Annual Report Survey, a representative of the Council noted that automobile insurance is a complex product, and given this complexity the Council does not have sufficient resources to devote to the topic. The representative of the Council also commented that the scarcity of resources available to represent consumers fairly is not limited to automobile insurance. We were directed to a report titled “Consumer Groups’ Capacity to Assess Potential Consumer Impacts of Policy Proposals”42 prepared by the Council (Council’s Report). The executive summary of this report states:

Consumer organizations must be seen to be and actually be capable of participating in the specific impact analysis relevant to the impact assessment of the policy or regulatory change being addressed, including application of pertinent methodology; being capable of accessing the necessary expertise when not in-house; and being capable of consulting consumers on an impact issue in a professional manner.

42 The Council, “Consumer Groups’ Capacity to Assess Potential Consumer Impacts of Policy Proposals”. Accessed on September 21, 2014. http://www.consumerscouncil.com/site/consumers_council_of_canada/assets/pdf/Consumer_Impacts.pdf.

http://www.consumerscouncil.com/site/consumers_council_of_canada/assets/pdf/Consumer_Impacts.pdf


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The representative noted that the Council does not have the resources to comment on the topic of automobile insurance while fulfilling the statement above.


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5 SUMMARY OF INDEPENDENT ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS AND SURVEYS

The objective of this section is to review how the PPA insurance claim costs and average rates were affected by the Reforms at the industry level. Section 5.1 summarizes our independent actuarial (quantitative) analysis of the impact of the Reforms. Section 5.2 summarizes the responses received for the Interim Report Survey and the 2014 Annual Report Survey, including responses with respect to ongoing Government initiatives and whether they have or will alleviate claim cost pressures within the automobile insurance system.

5.1 Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of the Reforms

The objective of this section is to review how PPA insurance claim costs and premiums were affected by the Reforms at the Ontario PPA insurance industry level. First, we summarize the results of our Independent Actuarial Analysis presented in Appendix B. Then, we provide a summary of the quantitative analyses received from respondents to the Interim Report Survey and 2014 Annual Report Survey.

5.1.1 Independent Actuarial Analysis

As part of our Independent Actuarial Analysis, we analyzed the impact of the Reforms on claim costs. Section 0 discusses estimated impact of the Reforms on claim cost levels and on claim cost trends. Additionally, Section 0 examines changes in the average automobile insurance premium and the average automobile insurance rate.

5.1.1.1 Impact of Reforms on Insurance Claim Costs

One of the objectives of the Reforms was to address the increasingly high level of auto insurance claim costs. In order to assess the impact of the Reforms on insurance claim costs, for each Ontario automobile insurance coverage and sub-coverage, we estimated the pre- and post-Reforms claim cost trends as well as the impacts of the Reforms on claim cost levels (Reforms Impacts). Our analysis was based on the industry claim experience, as of December 31, 2013, taken from the General Insurance Statistical Agency (GISA) exhibits related to All-Industry Ontario Automobile Insurance Private Passenger (excluding Farmers) Class of Business (PPA GISA Exhibits).43 We note that any estimates or analysis of claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts are highly dependent on the dataset, as well as the modeling approach, length of data history, and assumptions. In particular, the available GISA dataset is not broken down by insurer and therefore does not allow us to take into account changes in claim handling procedures or case reserve adequacy level during the relevant period44. In addition, the

43 The dataset used is net of the same data exclusions stemming from GISA’s validation procedures (i.e., the GISA data that we used in this report is consistent with the data that GISA publishes externally.) 44 As discussed in GISA’s “2013 Automobile Exhibit Introduction and Actual Loss Ratio Exhibit – Ontario” published on July 11, 2014, the “uncertainty arises…in greater part due to a significant change in case reserving process of a major writer


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GISA dataset relied on for this analysis is not broken down by territory and does not allow us to take into account differences between urban and rural territories – even though it is generally expected that the Reforms affected claim costs differently depending on the territory. It is also important to note that the estimates presented in the 2014 Annual Report are only based on three years of data following the Reforms.

Table 5.1 summarizes our best estimate of the impact of Reforms on claim cost trends and claim cost levels based on the analysis and the methodologies described in Appendix B. As discussed in Appendix B, we conducted the trend analysis separately for each of the coverages and sub-coverages identified.

Our analysis indicates that there is a strong inter-dependency between the estimated claim cost trends (both pre- and post-Reforms) and the impact of Reforms on claim cost levels. Consequently estimates of claim cost trends, pre- and post-Reforms, as well as the estimates of Reforms Impacts should be extracted from the same modelling approach, with the same underlying data and assumptions, and should be read and interpreted conjointly for a given coverage and sub-coverage. In other words, Reforms Impacts on claim cost levels shown in the last column of Table 5.1 should not be used in combination with claim cost trends stemming from a different modelling approach or data source.

Table 5.1: Summary of Estimates of Claim Cost Trends and Reforms Impacts by Coverage

Coverage Trends

Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels45

Third Party Liability (TPL) – Bodily Injury (BI) 5.3% 5.3% 0%

TPL-Property Damage (PD) 1.4% 1.4% 0%

TPL-Direct Compensation Property Damage (DC) 0.8% 0.8% 0%

Underinsured Motorist (UM) 4.0% 4.0% 0%

Total TPL+UM 3.9% 4.0% 0%

Accident Benefits (AB) – Medical and Rehabilitation (MR) 17.0% 0.7% -48.1%

AB-Disability Income (DI) 7.6% -0.2% -27.4%

AB-Funeral Expenses (F) -6.2% -6.2% 0%

AB-Death Benefits (DB) -8.4% -2.7% 0%

AB-Supplementary (SUP) 0.0% 0.0% 0%

impacting the 2009-1 and subsequent diagonals. This change has had a material impact on the observed Private Passenger incurred claim amount factors for certain AB sub-coverage groups. As a result the Private Passenger incurred claim amount factors were calculated on an all-industry basis excluding this major writer and applied to the all-industry data (including this major writer) for certain AB sub-coverage groups.” 45 See Appendix B, Exhibit A, Corresponding Segment, Page 6.


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Coverage Trends

Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels45

Uninsured Automobile (UA) 4.4% 4.4% 0%

Total AB+UA 14.9% 0.7% -43.2%


Collision (COL) -1.4% -1.4% 0%

Comprehensive (COM) -3.2% -3.2% 0%

Total Physical Damages (PhysD) -1.9% -1.9% 0%


5.1.1.1.1 Impact on Claim Cost Trends

Table 5.1 shows that:

― The pre-Reforms cost trend was significant in that it was more than 10% per year for Total Compulsory Coverages.

― The Reforms appear to have had a significant impact on claim cost trends; based on the first three years of data, the claim cost trend post-Reforms is estimated at 2.7% for Total Compulsory Coverages.

Claim cost trends reflect two components: economic inflation and social influences. While economic inflation takes into account changes in the price of goods and services covered by insurance, social influences include changes in propensity to claim, court practices, and legal precedents. Based on our analysis, pre-Reforms, the claim cost for a policy with all the compulsory and PhysD coverages listed in Table 5.1 (Total All Coverages) was expected to increase on average by 8.1% per year. The main drivers underlying this expected increase in claim costs were AB-MR and AB-DI with 17.0% and 7.6% annual trend respectively. The analysis also indicates that without the Reforms, the claim costs would likely have continued to increase at that same pace. In contrast, our analysis indicates that, on an all-coverages combined basis, the claim cost has been increasing on average by 1.7% per year post-Reforms. In comparison, the general inflation, as measured by CPI, reached 2.3%, 0.8% and 1.2% for 2011 through 2013 respectively. To date, the Reforms seem to have been successful in controlling the claim cost trends and bringing these trends closer to the general inflation level.

It is not simple to determine emerging claim cost trends within the volatility in claim costs. After two successive years of declining claim costs post-Reforms, claim costs for TPL-BI, AB-MR and AB-DI

46 Weighted based on 2009 ultimate loss costs. 47 Weighted based on 2013 ultimate loss costs. 48 Weighted based on 2009 ultimate loss costs that have been trended by one year.


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increased by 16.5%, 13.8% and 16.0% respectively between 2012 and 2013. Approximately 7% of the increases may be due to the harsh winter in 2013, as observed by the change in estimated TPL-DC frequency in Appendix B, Exhibit A, Section III, Page 7a. These recent claim cost movements also stress the importance of continuous monitoring of claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts. More importantly, it points to the necessity of determining and thoroughly documenting the estimates of pre- and post-Reforms trends as well as the Reforms Impacts that are specific for each insurer’s circumstances.

5.1.1.1.2 Impact on Claim Cost Levels

The first two columns of Table 5.1 compare the claim cost trends pre-Reforms and post-Reforms. The third column shows the results of our analysis pertaining to the impacts of the Reforms on claim cost levels. As can be observed from the table, the reduction in average claim cost level is estimated at just above 25% for Total Compulsory Coverages and at 21.6% for Total All Coverages. The coverages contributing the most to the claim cost level reduction were AB-MR and AB-DI with -48.1% and -27.4% impact respectively.

The observed change in claim costs can be further decomposed into two elements: the change in frequency and the change in severity. As shown in Appendix B, Exhibit A, page 6 of both Segment VII and Segment IV, the historical data includes a noticeable temporary surge in claim frequency between mid-2009 and the end of 2010) (i.e., pre-Reforms). In the quantitative analysis performed for the 2014 Annual Report, to avoid overestimating the impact of the Reforms, the estimates of the impact on claim cost levels were adjusted to exclude the effect of the temporary claim surge49 and the following self-correction50. It is important to note that as a result of this adjustment, there is an increased level of uncertainty associated with the above estimates.

5.1.1.1.3 Impact on Bodily Injury

At the outset, the Reforms were expected to significantly increase the TPL-BI claim cost level due to an expected transfer of claims from AB to TPL-BI. Our analysis of post-Reforms experience does not show evidence of such a transfer. However, we note that there is still significant uncertainty in the current estimates of post-Reforms TPL ultimate claim costs and trends from an all-industry perspective, and that there may yet be a transfer of claims from AB to TPL.

5.1.1.1.4 Volatility of Estimates

It is important to understand that the above estimates represent our best estimates based on the selected multivariate regression model and available data. Appendix B, Sections 3.3 through 3.5

49 As noted in the introduction to exhibit Auto0001-ON published by GISA in June 2014, “in certain sub-coverages there appears to be an acceleration of claims reported from accident periods immediately preceding the introduction of the new SABS (perhaps due to the reduction in amounts available for claims settlement processes under the new SABS).” 50 For pricing purpose, the use of adjusted Reforms Impact also entails further frequency adjustments to 2009H2, 2010H1 and 2010H2 experience to bring them to post-Reforms level.


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present a description of our detailed analysis as well as alternative models and results based on the same dataset.

5.1.1.2 Impact of Reforms on Insurance Premiums

An expectation of the Reforms was that if claim cost levels reduced, then average automobile insurance premiums could also be reduced. Furthermore, if post-Reforms claim cost trends reduced, future annual premium increases would be lower than the level of pre-Reforms increases. However, in the pre-Reforms environment, average premiums did not increase enough to match the claim trends, leading to inadequate average premium at the time of implementation of the Reforms. The adoption of the Reforms improved rate adequacy (i.e., brought premiums more in line with claim costs), reduced the need for substantial rate increases to return premiums to profitability and appeared to have curbed claims cost trends.

Given the lag between historical claim trends and rates, the recent decreases in automobile insurance costs have not yet been fully reflected in rates. Section 5.1.1.2.1 compares the changes in average written premium and claim cost trends from 2003 through 2012, while Section 5.1.1.2.2 breaks out the effects of rate drifts and rate changes on average written premiums. Section 5.1.1.2.3 summarizes the average rate changes as approved by FSCO. The changes in average written premium were used rather than the changes in premium to exclude the effect of changes in number of insured vehicles in the industry.

5.1.1.2.1 Changes in Average Written Premium v. Claim Trends

Conceptually, in order for the insurer to maintain the same profitability level, average premium should increase proportionately to the claim trends – assuming that all other variables remain constant. Otherwise, if the year-over-year change in average premium is less than the claim trends, the renewed premium would become less profitable or could even become unprofitable (i.e., the premium would be less than expected claim costs and expenses). To return to rate adequacy, the year-over-year change in average premium would need to increase by more than the claim trends51; or other initiatives would need to take place.

Figure 5.1 compares the actual year-over-year changes in the average written premium to the claim trends between 2003 and 201252, and demonstrates that during this period premiums were becoming increasingly less adequate. With reference to Section 0, the red line represents the estimated annual claim cost trends: 8.1% pre-Reforms and 1.7% post-Reforms. The blue line, which for most of the period is below the red line, represents average premium change. Post-Reforms the average written premium increased 3.4% and 1.1% in 2010 and 2011 respectively, and decreased by 0.4% in 2012. The overall level of average premium has not decreased post-Reforms. As noted above, one reason for this is that the average premiums were inadequate pre-Reforms (i.e., the pre-Reforms average premium did not increase enough to match the claim trends).

51 An alternative would be to reduce coverage to restore profitability. 52 The data was not available to populate the table for 2013.


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Confirming the notion of Pre-Reforms rate inadequacy, the industry was very unprofitable with loss ratios of 95% and 89% respectively for 2009 and 2010. These ratios are significantly higher than the target loss ratio of approximately 69%53 that is generally considered adequate for a reasonable return.

While the overall level of average premium has not decreased post-Reforms, the Reforms have still had a favourable impact on premiums. As discussed in Section 0, our analysis indicates that the Reforms have had a significant impact on claim cost levels: a reduction in claim cost levels means that the premium rate increases needed to return premiums to profitable levels are significantly reduced. In addition, given that claim cost trend was also significantly reduced, it is reasonable to expect greater rate stability in the future and lower annual rate increases.

Figure 5.1: Comparison of Average Written Premium Changes v. Claim Cost Trends for All Coverages Combined

5.1.1.2.2 Rate Drifts and Rate Changes

There are many factors affecting the average premium paid by Ontario drivers. Consumers’ choices (combined drift) related to the replacement of vehicles, as well as changes in selected policy limits and deductibles54 affect the premium paid by insureds on the effective date of the changes. The actual rate

53 We describe the permissible claim ratio of 69% in Appendix C, Section 10.1.3 of the Interim Report. 54 The drift related to the replacement of vehicles is estimated using Canadian Loss Experience Automobile Rating (CLEAR) estimates, which is provided by IBC. The drifts related to the selection of policy limits and deductibles are estimated using Ontario PPA limit and deductible differentials, which is provided by IAO Actuarial Consulting Services Inc.

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Avg Prem Change Claim Cost Trends


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change filed, approved and implemented by insurers is the other major component influencing the premium at renewal.

Figure 5.2 breaks out the average premium change into two components: the drift and the average rate change by isolating the impact of the drift from the above average premium change. We determined the amount of the average rate change by estimating the combined drift and deducting it from the average premium change.

Figure 5.2: Components of Average Premium Changes for All Coverages Combined

In 2010, the combined drift was 2.0%, which means that consumers’ choices increased the average premium by 2%. Similarly the combined drift amounted to 0.3% and 0.6% for 2011 and 2012 respectively. The component shown as the blue bars represents mainly the average rate change implemented by the insurance industry. The rate changes were 1.4%, 0.9% and -1.0% for 2010 through 2012 respectively.

The aggregation of the combined drift and the rate change gives the change in average premium. For example in 2012, the average premium decreased by 0.4%. During the same period, changes in insured vehicles, selected policy limits and deductibles contributed to an estimated increase of 0.6%, such that the estimated average rate level decrease was 1.0%.

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Rate Change Combined Drift


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5.1.1.2.3 Progress Related to the Average Rate Reduction Target of 15%

Table 5.2 summarizes FSCO post-Reforms approved rate changes55 for the entire PPA insurance market, by year approved.

Table 5.2: Post-Reforms Approved Rate Changes for the Entire PPA Insurance Market

Year Approved 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cumulative 2010-2014

Rate Change 0.7% 4.9% (0.3%) (4.7%) (0.9%) (-0.4%)

Based on the FSCO data as of the 3rd quarter of 2014, the post-Reforms cumulative approved rate changes for the entire PPA insurance market is a decrease of 0.4% from rate filings received by FSCO between the 2nd quarter of 2010 and the 3rd quarter of 2014. Since the announcement of the Strategy in 2013, the approved rate changes for the entire PPA insurance market represent a decrease of 5.5%.

In accordance with Regulation 237/1356, FSCO measured the progress to-date related to the average rate reduction of 15%. The Minister of Finance noted on October 16, 2014 that Ontario drivers have seen a six percent reduction in insurance rates between August 2013 and August 201457.

Our analysis indicates that the Reforms have significantly contributed to reducing the claim cost levels and claim cost trends and, therefore, have also contributed to containing average rate changes in Ontario. Without the reduction in claim cost levels and claim cost trends, significant rate increases would have been needed in order to restore profitability. In addition, further annual rate increases would have been needed to cover the expected claim cost trends.

To support the Strategy of reducing the average rate by 15%, the Government has adopted or is in the process of adopting a range of additional initiatives such as the implementation of Anti-Fraud measures, licensing of healthcare providers in the automobile insurance system, and transformation of the automobile insurance DRS. Based on the information obtained through the 2014 Annual Report Survey and the Interim Report survey, it is generally not expected that the combination of these actions would support a reduction of 15% in rates. Additional initiatives would be required in order to sustain the target average rate reduction.

5.1.2 Interim Report Survey and 2014 Annual Report Survey

We asked stakeholders to provide quantitative analyses of the impact of the Reforms. In the Interim Report Survey insurers were asked to quantify the impact of the Reforms on insurance claim costs and rates. In the 2014 Annual Report Survey, stakeholders were asked to quantify the impact of the Reforms on their members.

55 FSCO, “Auto Quarterly Rate Approvals”, last modified July 15, 2014. Accessed October 10, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/rates/Pages/default.aspx. 56 Ontario Regulation 237/13 under Automobile Insurance Rate Stabilization Act, 2003. Accessed November 5, 2014, http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/source/regs/english/2013/elaws_src_regs_r13237_e.htm. 57 It is our understanding from the MOF that the average rate change for Ontario PPA for the period between August 16, 2013 and August 15, 2014 is a decrease of 6.03%.

http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/rates/Pages/default.aspx



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5.1.2.1 Impact of the Reforms on Insurance Claim Costs

In the Interim Report Survey, we asked insurers to quantify the impact of the Reforms on claim costs by coverage and by kind of loss, as well as the shifts in claim costs between coverages.

Table 5.3 summarizes the estimated impact of the Reforms by coverages and sub-coverages. Some insurers chose to report the impact for AB on a combined basis only (i.e., these insurers did not estimate the impact on AB-DI separately from AB-other than disability income (AB-Non DI)). On average, for those insurers who responded, the estimated impact is a decrease of about 51% on AB-DI claim costs, a decrease of about 39% on AB-Non DI claim costs, and a decrease of about 46% on the claim costs for AB in total.

Table 5.3: Estimated Change in Claim Costs by Coverage (Interim Report Survey Results)

Coverage

Percentage of Industry

Represented

Weighted Average Estimated Change

in Claim Costs

FSCO Benchmark Change in Claim Costs

201358 201459

TPL-BI 64% 20% 5% 0%

TPL-PD 49% (1%) n/a n/a

AB-DI 29% (51%) (40%) (33%)

AB-Non DI 29% (39%) (55%) (49%)

AB 40% (46%) (52%) (46%)

PhysD 32% 0% n/a n/a

Table 5.4 summarizes the estimated change in claim costs by kind of loss. This table is based upon the results of the Interim Report Survey, and we note that the information included in this table was provided by insurers representing about 27% of the industry. Furthermore, many of the insurers who attempted to estimate the impact of the Reforms by kind of loss noted that their estimates were based on immature data.

Some insurers noted that the impact of the Reforms on AB catastrophic claims offsets the benefits achieved through reduced claim costs. In particular, insurers noted that claim costs for medical, rehabilitation, and attendant care are trending upward due to non-catastrophic claims that are becoming catastrophic claims as a result of a weakened catastrophic threshold. A weakened catastrophic threshold also has the effect of deteriorating existing catastrophic claims.

58 FSCO, “Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings”, August 2013, Exhibit 2, Page 2. Accessed on March 13, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf. 59 FSCO, “Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings”, October 2014. Accessed on October 14, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/documents/technical-notes.pdf.

http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf

http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/documents/technical-notes.pdf


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Table 5.4: Estimated Change in Claim Costs by Kind of Loss

Kind of Loss Estimated Change in

Claim Costs

Medical (50%) to (57%)

Rehabilitation (10%) to (31%)

Cost of exams (38%) to (67%)

Attendant Care (10%) to (41%)

Housekeeping60 (80%) to (92%)

Approximately half of the insurers who responded to this question, representing about 38% of the industry, reported that they observed shifts in claim costs from AB to TPL-BI; however, they noted that the amount shifted could not be quantified. Insurers who did not yet observe any shifts responded with the caveat that it is too early after the Reforms to conclude that there are no shifts in claim costs between coverages. These insurers expect that at some point a shift in claim costs between coverages will occur. In general, insurers indicated that the frequency of AB claims is decreasing while that of BI claims is increasing.

5.1.2.2 Impact of the Reforms on Insurance Rates

We asked insurers to comment on post-Reforms rate changes implemented at the coverage level and on how the uncertainties in the Ontario PPA insurance market are reflected in their premiums.

The majority of the insurers surveyed provided their approved rate changes by coverage since the Reforms. Table 5.5 summarizes the post-Reforms weighted average approved rate changes by coverage for the surveyed insurers, representing approximately 77% of the industry.

Table 5.5: Weighted Average Approved Rate Changes since the Reforms by Effective Year and Coverage

Coverage 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

TPL-BI 16.5% 4.8% 2.1% 5.3% 1.9%

TPL-PD 1.4% (2.5%) (1.2%) (1.4%) (3.0%)

AB (8.4%) 8.1% 0.6% (2.6%) (8.3%)

PhysD (1.6%) (3.3%) (2.7%) (1.9%) (4.6%)

For comparison purpose, we refer readers back to Table 5.2 which summarizes FSCO post-Reforms approved rate changes for the entire PPA insurance market, by year approved.

More than half of the respondents, representing approximately 42% of the industry, attempted to specifically quantify the uncertainties in the Ontario PPA insurance market. However, most of the insurers who attempted to do so cautioned that the issue is complex and that the uncertainty cannot be reliably quantified.

60 Housekeeping is no longer a standard benefit.


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5.1.2.3 Impact of the Reforms on the Representative Stakeholders' Members

We asked Representative Stakeholders if they have analysed the impact of the 2010 auto insurance reforms on their members, and if so, if they could provide the results of such quantification. The agreed scope of our report includes considering whether ongoing Government initiatives will alleviate claim cost pressures within the automobile insurance system.

None of the Representative Stakeholders provided a quantitative analysis of the impact of the Reforms on their members. However, the results of the 2014 Annual Report Survey indicate that many stakeholders are concerned about the impact of the Reforms on claimants.

5.2 Qualitative Analysis based on Summary of Surveys

This section documents the aggregated results of the two surveys and the series of interviews conducted during 2014 with insurers and Representative Stakeholders, without any analysis or conclusions drawn by KPMG. The focus of this section is to capture and demonstrate the range of comments received from the respondents.

We have identified some comments from respondents to the two surveys where we would like to follow-up for more context and analysis. As appropriate, we will follow-up as part of our approach to the 2015 Annual Report.

We summarize the respondents’ comments from the Interim Report and the 2014 Annual Report surveys in the following categories:

― Impact of the Reforms; ― Anti-Fraud Recommendations; ― Dispute Resolution System (DRS); ― Impact of the Strategy; ― Issues and Uncertainty ; and ― Competitiveness of the Ontario PPA Insurance Market.

5.2.1 Impact of the Reforms

Respondents to the Interim Report Survey and the 2014 Annual Report Survey provided a range of qualitative examples of how the Reforms have impacted various aspects of the PPA insurance system in Ontario. From our discussion with insurers and Representative Stakeholders, we understand that many of them have shared their concerns with the Government through different channels. We also note that many of the concerns raised by survey respondents have also been cited in recent reports on the Ontario automobile insurance system. These reports include, but are not limited to, the Anti-Fraud Report, the DRS Report, and the Towing Report. The Information and recommendations presented in these reports and through other channels are not the repeated in the 2014 Annual Report.

Based on the comments received from the Representative Stakeholders and insurers, it would appear that the Reforms had an impact on many aspects of the Ontario automobile insurance system. However, in keeping with the agreed scope of our report, we limit the discussion in this section to the


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qualitative impacts of the Reforms that relate to automobile insurance claim costs and premiums and/or rates.61

We observe that respondents to the surveys have in some instances noted issues which the Government has attempted to address post-Reforms through proposed or implemented additional measures since the Reforms.

5.2.1.1 Impact on General Consumers

Through the Reforms, the benefits available from the mandatory automobile insurance coverages were reduced. At the same time, a wider range of optional automobile insurance coverage choices were introduced. As a result, because of the Reforms, Ontario automobile insurance consumers were given the increased responsibility to understand the mandatory insurance coverage and to determine which and what level of optional benefit coverages to purchase, if any.

This increased responsibility triggers a need for better consumer information to assist consumers with understanding the automobile insurance product and their decision making. However, numerous respondents suggested that many consumers are not aware of the post-Reforms changes in coverage options. Furthermore, respondents believe that many consumers may not have an understanding of the treatment required (and the related costs) to recover from injuries sustained in a MVA; therefore, even those consumers who are aware that optional benefits are available are not knowledgeable enough to decide whether the mandatory automobile insurance coverage is sufficient in the event of an accident or to decide on the appropriate level of optional coverage.

A few respondents to the 2014 Annual Report Survey suggested that significant deficiencies still exist in consumer education, and that these deficiencies have resulted in errors and omissions claims or lawsuits being brought by claimants against insurers and brokers for not adequately informing consumers of the available options. These respondents noted that consumers are often unaware of the level of coverage that they have purchased until they need access to the coverage as a result of being injured in an MVA. Some respondents also suggested that the responsibility to educate consumers about the available options should not rest solely with insurers and brokers.

5.2.1.2 Impact on Claimants

Some Representative Stakeholders noted impacts from the Reforms on claimants treated under the MIG (Section 10.1.1.2), who are seriously injured (Section 10.1.1.3), or who are catastrophically impaired (Section 10.1.1.4). A number of the comments that we received noted that issues such as the uncertainties surrounding the definitions of the MIG and catastrophic impairment, the unpredictability of outcomes from the DRS, and the complexity of the claim process, are leading claimants to increasingly retain and rely on legal counsel62 for all types of injuries. Moreover,

61 We note that while an objective of the Strategy is an overall 15% average reduction in rates by August 2015, most of the respondents’ comments addressed premiums, not rates. 62 We understand that this has been an issue for a very long time and is not new as it is presented here. Justice Cunningham’s DRS review Interim Report (http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/consultations/auto/request-for-submission-interim-report.html, accessed November 7, 2014) stated that this was an issue pre-1990 before the introduction of the DRS.

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/consultations/auto/request-for-submission-interim-report.html



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stakeholders have indicated that delays attributable to the mediation63 and arbitration backlogs are resulting in delays in claimants accessing required healthcare services; this according to some of the respondents, may lead to missed opportunities for early rehabilitation and increased costs in the longer term. In addition, the complexity of the claim process and delays in claim adjudication often result in additional medical examinations and assessments having to be performed.

The Reforms brought a change in the determination of claimants with catastrophic impairment, which effectively precludes a psychologist or any healthcare provider other than a physician from conducting the assessment unless the impairment is a brain impairment only. The Ontario Psychological Association (OPA) suggests that transaction costs could be reduced by reinstating psychologists as professionals who can conduct assessments and examinations to certify applications for catastrophic impairment due to mental health disorders.

5.2.1.3 Impact on Medical Assessments, Examinations, and Rehabilitation

A few stakeholders noted that due to the $2,000 limit on fees and expenses for assessments or examinations, there has been a significant reduction in the fees paid to the professionals providing the assessments. Consequently, respondents to the Annual Report Survey observed that this has led to the use of less experienced providers, more limited assessments, and reports that do not necessarily follow best practices and professional standards. There was a concern expressed by some stakeholders that the use of less experienced providers has led to more disputes and increased costs to the system. Others noted that setting standards for third-party medical examinations may reduce friction, legal costs and dispute resolution cases.

A few respondents noted that the new licensing fees64 and transaction fees related to the PPA insurance system charged to healthcare providers are creating a disincentive for those who are sole practitioners or who practise in a small clinic to participate in the automobile insurance system. Some feel that costs to address fraud are being shifted to healthcare providers.

5.2.1.4 Other Qualitative Impacts

Some stakeholders suggested that two changes from the Reforms, specifically – the removal of funding for both “rebuttal assessments” and for facilitating communication between insurer examination reviewers and treatment plan providers – have contributed to the delays in the claim assessment process and have increased disputes between claimants and insurers. This may be adding friction to the PPA insurance system and thus increasing overall costs.

A number of respondent also suggested that claim costs may be better understood through a detailed analysis of data available through the HCAI.

63 The mediation backlog was cleared by FSCO in August 2013. 64 As per FSCO’s website, “as of December 1, 2014, service providers who submit OCF-21 forms through [HCAI] must be licensed with the [FSCO] to invoice and receive direct payment from automobile insurers for specific ‘listed expenses’ in connection with statutory accident benefits.” http://fsco.gov.on.ca/en/service-providers/faqs/Pages/default.aspx. Accessed November 7, 2014.

http://fsco.gov.on.ca/en/service-providers/faqs/Pages/default.aspx


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5.2.2 Anti-Fraud Recommendations

The Representative Stakeholders and insurers generally seem to be aware that all participants in the Ontario automobile insurance system have a role in combating auto insurance fraud. More than half of the insurers who responded to the Interim Report Survey, representing approximately 40% of the industry, reported being involved with industry anti-fraud initiatives such as the Canadian National Insurance Crime Services (CANATICS).65

All Stakeholders generally agree that implementation of some of the Anti-Fraud Task Force recommendations has prevented costs and premiums from increasing to a level that would be unsustainable; and generally PPA insurance system stakeholders look forward to additional Anti-Fraud Task Force recommendations being implemented.

During the Annual Report survey, healthcare providers viewed the pilot of the Professional Credential Tracker66 tool as a valuable program. However, some Representative Stakeholders commented that certain recommendations, such as the requirement for detailed statement of benefits paid, and the licensing of both the towing industry and healthcare clinics are actually adding costs to the system. At the same time, these stakeholders also acknowledge the value that these recommendations bring to the anti-fraud initiative.

With respect to fraud as it relates to the towing industry, one comment received was that the Anti-Fraud Task Force recommendations do not take into consideration a key factor leading to fraud, which is the decreased presence of police at accident scenes with the introduction of self-reporting through Collision Reporting Centres. An effect of this change is that information related to the accident or access to potential witnesses may be lost, which may lead to an increase in opportunistic and premeditated fraud.

5.2.3 Dispute Resolution System (DRS)

The final DRS Report was issued after the insurers had submitted their responses to the Interim Report Survey. As such the insurers did not have many comments related to the report. Insurers indicated that they were eager to know which recommendations will be implemented. The timing of implementation was also of interest to the insurers. Some insurers commented that, until such time that the recommendations from the DRS Report are implemented, delays inherent in the current model

65 In 2013, Ontario’s automobile insurance market formed CANATICS. Accessed on March 13, 2014. http://canatics.ca/. This initiative is an industry response to the Anti-Fraud Task Force’s recommendation that insurers should move aggressively to establish an organization that would pool and analyse claims data in order to identify potential cases of organized or premeditated fraud. CANATICS is a not-for-profit organization that when operational by the end of 2014, will pool claims data and use sophisticated analytics to identify suspicious claims. The goal is that by identifying these claims early, a company will be able to focus its investigation resources and catch perpetrators of fraud before making any claim payments.

66 The Professional Credential Tracker (PCT) “is the first phase of a pilot project to help Ontario regulated health

professionals stay informed of which clinics or health facilities are using their information to submit auto insurance claims. This initiative is one of the recently-introduced measures recognized and endorsed by the Ontario Auto Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force in their Interim Report. It is being investigated by a Working Group chaired by the Financial Services Commission of Ontario.” Accessed on October 4, 2014. www.aboutpct.ca/About-PCT/index.shtml.

http://canatics.ca/



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and arbitration decisions that are seemingly at odds with the legislative intent will continue to bring uncertainty to the Ontario PPA insurance market.

The Representative Stakeholders provided comments on the DRS and the recommendations in the DRS Report. Some noted that the current DRS is inefficient and costly, which is increasing costs and premiums. As discussed earlier, stakeholders suggested that delays in the rehabilitation assessment process can often result in patients subsequently developing more chronic and/or secondary health issues related to the injuries sustained in the MVA. This renders the original treatment proposal invalid and increases costs to the PPA insurance system. There was a question as to whether the elimination of the mediation backlog has led to a more timely mechanism to address disputes regarding treatment plans and whether any corresponding changes have been observed in the insurers’ patterns of responses to treatment plans. A few would welcome the opportunity to obtain and review data67 regarding the outcomes of disputes regarding treatment plans – such as human and economic costs associated with untreated injuries, including the cost of pain, risk of re-injury, and chronicity of conditions.

5.2.3.1 Qualitative Assessment of DRS Report

Appendix A68 of Justice Cunningham’s Report lists twenty-eight recommendations for transforming the DRS. As part of their response to the 2014 Annual Report Survey, the Representative Stakeholders provided comments on some of these 28 recommendations. Their comments are summarized in this section:

― Recommendation 1 from the DRS Report: there is a concern that FSCO arbitrators’ knowledge and experience may be lost with the transfer of the DRS to the Public Sector Administrative Tribunal69;

― Recommendation 9 from the DRS Report: the removal of the right to sue poses a serious concern for both the plaintiff and defence bar, where many believe that this effectively eliminates the ability to rely on case law for interpretation. Some stakeholders suggested that this may increase disputes as neither plaintiff nor defence counsel will have case law to rely upon;

― Recommendation 17 from the DRS Report: for claims that include future medical and rehabilitation benefits, a delay of two years before settlement may make it more difficult to come to a resolution of the issues;

― Recommendation 25 from the DRS Report:

― the requirement that arbitration hearings for cases under $10,000 be conducted as paper reviews could lead to overuse and even fraud, as claimants could simply split up related

67 Such data is currently not available nor collected. 68 Justice Douglas Cunningham, “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”, Accessed on September 25, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html#appA. 69 Bill 15 – Fighting Fraud and Reducing Automobile Insurance Rates Act, 2014, which has received second reading, is proposing that the DRS be moved to the License Appeal Tribunal.

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html#appA


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claims to ensure that each split up portion of the claims would fall under the $10,000 maximum for paper reviews;

― some stakeholders mentioned that they are not in favour of restricting the length of medical assessment reports; and

― there was a suggestion that a triage process be developed to review the disputes and identify claims of higher priority (e.g., those for which the specific treatment is time sensitive) that should be expedited through the DRS.

5.2.4 Impact of the Strategy

5.2.4.1 On Insurers

While most insurers agree that the Government’s current Strategy will reduce claim costs, a majority of the respondents are concerned with the mismatch in timing between the eventual decrease in claim costs and the targeted70 overall 15% average reduction in automobile insurance rates by August 2015. Respondents suggested that it takes time for cost containment measures to flow through the entire system and that until there is clarity in the proposed changes, the claim costs savings are difficult to quantify. There is also concern among the insurers that the Reforms were intended to reduce claim costs and stabilize rates, and that the Reforms were not necessarily meant to reduce rates. The insurers indicated that, to reduce rates, the Strategy would have to reduce claim costs further.

Responding insurers also reported that, although the Government driven fraud-related initiatives facilitate the ability of insurers to identify, investigate, and prosecute fraud, the costs to perform these tasks are borne by the insurers. As such, the insurers responding to the survey believed that a reduction in overall claim costs and expenses cannot come from anti-fraud initiatives alone. Insurers believe that there needs to be an emphasis on reducing the administrative costs such as disbursements during dispute resolution or tort claims, assessments, and forms completion.

Insurers cautioned that without a follow-through by the Government on timely and concurrent claim cost reductions, a lack of capacity and availability in the insurance market may result due to inadequate rates as a result of the targeted 15% average rate reduction.

5.2.4.2 On Representative Stakeholders

We asked the Representative Stakeholders whether they have taken or planned to take steps to reduce costs for the Ontario automobile insurance systems. We also asked if there are any issues preventing them from reducing costs, as well as potential actions that may help reduce costs.

We have been advised by respondents that many service providers to the PPA insurance system have implemented cost effective and more efficient processes. Others service providers plan on

70 The Government has set a target of 15% average automobile insurance rate reduction between August 2013 and August 2015.


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participating in discussions71 regarding actions that will be implemented as part of the Strategy. Stakeholders are also developing standards and guidelines72 for their members to adhere to.

Healthcare professionals noted that some of the administrative burdens, such as licensing of all healthcare practitioners, are not supporting cost reduction.

A few stakeholders commented that the Government’s rate reduction target of 15% is likely not to be met by the target date next year, and that the Government might want to consider extending the target date. There were stakeholders who suggested that the Government should also not begin any new initiatives, as a number of significant cost reduction initiatives are already underway (e.g., anti-fraud, changes to DRS) and the impacts have not yet been fully realized or understood.

The Representative Stakeholders were eager to offer suggestions for reducing costs in the system. Sections 10.4.4 and 10.4.5 contain many suggestions that are not repeated in detail here.

5.2.5 Issues and Uncertainty in the PPA Insurance System

The cross section of stakeholders responding to the two surveys conducted during 2014 generally identified similar issues and uncertainties in the PPA insurance system. However, it is not surprising that the various stakeholders sometimes tend to look at the issues and uncertainties from different perspectives.

Stakeholders identified the following uncertainties in the PPA insurance system:

― Potential erosion of the existing catastrophic impairment definition; ― Definition of minor injuries that would fall under the MIG; ― Limitation period and discoverability of TPL-BI claims and transfer of some claim costs from AB to

TPL-BI; ― Definition of what constitutes “economic loss”; ― Changes to DRS processes; ― Use of FSCO benchmarks in rate reviews; and ― Eligibility for automobile insurance insureds to claim optional benefits regardless of whether the

options were purchased.

We asked the stakeholders to provide issues that they believe may be contributing to uncertainty. The following list demonstrates inherent characteristics in the PPA insurance system that stakeholders believe increase the system’s uncertainties:

― High benefit limit creating incentive to pursue claims; ― Complex insurance product leads to disputes in interpretations; ― Abuse and fraud higher in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) than other areas; ― Shortage of post-Reforms arbitration or mediation decision; ― Rate filing system that leads to unpredictable outcome;

71 For example, the Coalition indicated that they plan to be actively involved in participating and providing feedback to the MIG recommendations to be released in the fall of 2014. 72 For example, psychologists are developing guidelines for examinations requested by insurers with the expectation that the guidelines will increase confidence in the insurers’ assessments and examinations system and reduce disputes.


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― Loss of medical experts due to costs and regulatory burden; ― Trend of lower quality medical assessment facilities using unqualified assessors; ― Inconsistent insurers’ interpretation of regulations; and ― Constantly changing automobile insurance regulation.

5.2.6 Competitiveness of the Ontario PPA Insurance Market

We asked respondents to comment on whether the auto insurance marketplace in Ontario is sufficiently competitive and efficient in providing affordable premiums to consumers.

There are opposing views on whether the Ontario PPA insurance market is sufficiently competitive. Some respondents do not believe that the PPA insurance system is competitive and efficient in providing affordable premiums. Others believe that the entire system should be reviewed for opportunities to increase efficiency and reduce costs overall.

Insurers and brokers generally believe that the PPA insurance system is a competitive market.

We observe that there are various tools for consumers to compare insurance rates, such as FSCO’s interactive tool to understanding rates73 or Kanetix74. FSCO also illustrated a gauge of the level of competitiveness in the PPA insurance system by reviewing the number of companies that represent 80% of the market. Based on FSCO’s analysis, as performed on 2011 data and presented in their 2011-2012 annual report75, 24 insurers represented 80% of the market. This is one of the highest number of insurers, second only to the number of insurers that provide property insurance. FSCO’s analysis concludes that the market is generally competitive.

We note that other factors that may address the competitiveness of the PPA insurance system may include a comparison of the market share of insurers over time, the ease of entering and exiting the insurance system, and the underwriting return achieved on the PPA insurance product over time.

73 FSCO, “Understanding Rates / An Interactive Tool.” http://www5.fsco.gov.on.ca/autorate/. Accessed October 27, 2014. 74 www.kanetix.ca. Accessed October 27, 2014. 75 FSCO, “Annual Report 2011-2012”. Page 74. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/about/annual_reports/Documents/2011-2012-annual-report.pdf. Accessed October 27, 2014.

http://www5.fsco.gov.on.ca/autorate/

http://www.kanetix.ca/

http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/about/annual_reports/Documents/2011-2012-annual-report.pdf



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6 OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

One of the objectives of this report is to provide recommendations for further potential actions that could be considered by the Government and other stakeholders within the PPA insurance system to help the Government achieve its 15% average rate reduction target for PPA insurance by the end of August 2015. The observations and recommendations presented in this section have been informed by our actuarial analysis, both survey processes and our understanding of the Ontario PPA insurance system. As part of our observations, we also point out that certain issues may require additional information, analysis or consideration before making recommendations for potential further actions. Consistent with the objectives of this report, the recommendations focus on potential further actions that could benefit the overall Ontario automobile insurance system.

Through the Interim Report Survey and the 2014 Annual Report Survey processes, we had the opportunity to hear from a number of organizations, representing the interests of a wide range of stakeholders in the Ontario PPA insurance system. However, as discussed in Section 4.3.2, none of the respondents to the surveys represent broader consumer concerns with respect to Ontario automobile insurance (i.e., the concerns of consumers who have not been involved in MVAs and as a result, have not made a claim against their automobile insurance coverage).

Based on the feedback gathered through both survey processes, as well as related discussions with some of the stakeholders, there is a broad consensus among the responding stakeholders that the Ontario PPA insurance system needs reform, that a number of positive steps towards reform have been taken, and that there is more to be done. Related to this, the responding stakeholders have a strong desire to participate in improving the PPA insurance system in Ontario.

As one of the stakeholders alluded to, the general idea of insurance is not complex; however, when the insurance system is considered as a whole, the interactions between the different components are multifaceted and it becomes difficult for any of the stakeholder groups to claim that they understand the intricate workings of the entire insurance system. Given this complexity and the number of stakeholders involved, there are many different perspectives on how to improve the Ontario PPA insurance system, and what the underlying objectives of any potential actions should be. Section 5 and Appendix D of the 2014 Annual Report summarize some of these differing perspectives.

As part of the research conducted for both the Interim Report and the 2014 Annual Report, issues were identified or suggestions for improvements were received that may not be linked directly to the Government’s 15% average automobile insurance rate reduction target. For example, a number of stakeholders commented on the impact of the Reforms on claimants, or wondered about whether the reduction in claim costs has resulted in increased costs elsewhere in the system.

We want to thank all of the organizations who responded to the surveys for their participation. While the recommendations presented in this section of the 2014 Annual Report may not directly incorporate all of the comments and recommendations received, the breadth of input is a good reminder that different stakeholders define a well-functioning PPA insurance system differently given their respective priorities and interests. The Government has a difficult task of trying to balance these often competing views.


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6.1 General Observations and Recommendations

This section includes general recommendations and observations based on our understanding of the Ontario PPA insurance system, our independent actuarial analysis, and discussions with stakeholders through the two survey processes. These recommendations are directed at areas that would benefit the overall Ontario automobile insurance system rather than address the concerns specific to some stakeholders. More specific recommendations are addressed later in this section. We believe that actions taken by the Government and/or other stakeholders based on these recommendations, coupled with the Government initiatives that are underway, could result in a more efficient PPA insurance system – one that is more transparent, with less uncertainty, and easier to understand.

6.1.1 Consumer Representation

Many of the respondents to the 2014 Annual Report Survey spoke on behalf of Ontario automobile insurance claimants who have been injured in MVAs. However, a great majority of Ontario PPA insurance consumers are not injured76 in an MVA in a given year. As discussed in Section 4.3.2, we were not able to identify an independent organization that would represent the concerns of the broader group of consumers (i.e. both those who make an insurance claim and those who never make a claim).

We also heard from stakeholders that significant deficiencies still exist in the education of consumers regarding Ontario automobile insurance.

Given the above, we would suggest that consideration be given to establishing an independent organization whose mandate would be to represent all consumers in Ontario who purchase PPA insurance. Such an organization would be charged with balancing the views and needs of all consumers, and could provide a voice to all Ontario automobile insurance consumers. Some of the potential benefits of such an organization include:

1. Providing consumers with tools to better understand the PPA insurance product.

The Reforms introduced coverage flexibility and choice to consumers. However, the average consumer does not have a sufficient understanding of the costs of the treatments that may be required to recover from serious or catastrophic injuries sustained from an MVA. By providing tools that could enhance consumers’ understanding of the insurance product, consumers would be empowered to make informed decisions on the appropriate level of coverage (mandatory and optional) to purchase. In addition, consumers should have a better understanding of the relationship between premiums and the coverage received. Such knowledge would assist with building trust between consumers and insurers (as well as other insurance intermediaries such as insurance brokers and agents).

2. Representing consumers in any discussions pertaining to potential changes to Ontario’s PPA insurance system.

76 As discussed in the Ontario Road Safety Annual Report, 2011, 66 out of every 10,000 licensed drivers were injured in

2011. There were 9.3 million licensed drivers in 2011. http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar11/ontario-road-safety-annual-report-2011.pdf. Accessed November 5, 2014.

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar11/ontario-road-safety-annual-report-2011.pdf



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In order to represent consumers, the organization would need to understand both the need for and the effect of initiatives such as the Reforms and the Strategy on all Ontario automobile insurance consumers. One of the criticisms voiced by some of the respondents regarding the Government's 15% average automobile insurance rate reduction target is that it is not clear how the 15% target was derived. Another comment received was that there appears to be a regional difference in the need for a reduction in automobile insurance rates. An organization representing all automobile insurance consumers should have an informed understanding of how automobile insurance premiums are changing for consumers in different territories within Ontario.

3. Guiding automobile insurance consumers injured in MVAs through the claim process.

An organization that focuses on representing all Ontario automobile insurance consumers would provide an independent resource that could also be valuable for claimants in ensuring that they can focus on recovery rather than navigating and understanding the claim process. For example, if a consumer representative was able to assist claimants through the claims process, consumers may not need to turn to legal counsel as frequently for such assistance, particularly with respect to more minor claims. The cost and benefit analysis of providing this type of service would need to be assessed along with the mandate and resources of a consumer representative.

6.1.2 Develop a Deeper Understanding of the Impact of the Reforms and Strategy

One of the objectives of the Interim Report and the 2014 Annual Report was to quantitatively address how PPA insurance claim costs and premiums were affected by the Reforms and the Strategy at the industry level. Our analyses in both the Interim Report and the 2014 Annual Report indicate that the Reforms have significantly contributed to reducing both the claim cost levels and the claim cost trends, and have contributed to stabilizing automobile insurance premiums in Ontario. Furthermore, our analyses indicate that without this positive impact on claim costs, automobile insurance consumers in Ontario would have continued to experience premium increases.

With reference back to Section 5.1, the data from GISA demonstrates that claim costs, especially those related to AB, have decreased since 2010 when the Reforms came into effect. The GISA data also demonstrates that automobile insurance premiums have remained stable for the AB coverage since the Reforms, while total premiums paid for PPA insurance in Ontario have increased marginally in recent years and have started to exhibit trends of decrease. As premiums are generally set based on historical claims data (historical and expected trends, plus consideration of the level of uncertainty), a decrease in the claim costs will not immediately result in a decrease in premiums (i.e. the claims decrease will need to be reflected in the historical data first). Moreover, as explained in Section 1.6.1 of the Interim Report, there is a delay between the implementation of rate changes and when the changes would be reflected in premiums earned.

As discussed in Section 5.1.1.2.3, the Government’s initial target of achieving an average automobile insurance rate reduction of 8% by August 2014 has not been met. Some stakeholders commented that the average Ontario automobile insurance rates will likely not be reduced by 15% as targeted for by August 2015. We also note that in its 2013-2014 Annual Report, OSFI commented that “the legislated target of 15% rate reductions in Ontario by August 2015 (with 8% reductions to be realized by August 2014) may negatively impact Ontario personal auto insurance underwriting profitability if


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the additional claims-related measures introduced in the 2013 Ontario budget are delayed in implementation.”77

We note that post-Reforms, many significant cost reduction initiatives have been planned and/or implemented (e.g., anti-fraud, changes to DRS) and the resulting impact of these initiatives has not yet been fully realized or understood. There was a general expectation that these initiatives may result in further cost reduction; and that given the lag between implementation and effect, these initiatives should be allowed to mature, without the Government proposing and or implementing additional broad measures.

We note that there is currently insufficient data to understand the full impact of the Reforms and Strategy, and that it is important to analyze and understand the full impact of the Reforms and Strategy (including looking at any impacts outside of the Ontario PPA insurance system and the impact on claimants) before implementing additional measures. Too many broad changes would make it difficult to analyze and understand the impact of the Reforms and the Strategy.

Expected projected claim costs are generally more reliable when the market environment has been stable. In such a stable environment, competition tends to increase resulting in lower premium rates. While continuous improvements or some re-alignments may be desirable to fix some problematic situations that may emerge, the Government should also recognize the importance of maintaining a stable environment.

Recent actions by the Government suggests that it is focused on reducing uncertainty with initiatives that target specific issues of the PPA insurance system. As discussed in Section 5.1.1.2.3, we believe that additional initiatives would be required in order to support the target average rate reduction of 15% by August 2015. Any additional initiatives should continue to target specific issues rather than broad product reform until the effects of the Reforms and Strategy have had an opportunity to work through the system, in order to allow a more fulsome understanding. This will minimize potential ripple effects that may result in unintended consequences. Attempts should also be made to continually understand the cost and benefit of initiatives that have, and will, be implemented. The Government needs to strike a balance between the need for additional initiatives and maintaining stability in the system.

6.1.3 Health Claims for Auto Insurance System

To prepare our quantitative analyses in both the Interim Report and the 2014 Annual Report, we relied on data from P&C insurers’ financial statements as well as data from GISA. Both of these datasets contain aggregated premium, exposure, and claim data at industry-level, and provide a sufficient level of detail for a user to gain an understanding of the performance of the industry in general. However, the detail is not at a level that is sufficiently granular for a user to be able to estimate and monitor some of the changes from the Reforms and Strategy. For example, it is not possible to estimate the proportion of expenses spent on AB claims based solely on GISA data.

This is a reason behind the suggestion offered by a few of the stakeholders that data from the HCAI should be considered if the Government would like to gain a deeper understanding of the full impact

77 OSFI, “2013-2014 Annual Report”, http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/Docs/ar-ra/1314/eng/p6-eng.html, accessed October 12, 2014.

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/Docs/ar-ra/1314/eng/p6-eng.html


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of the Reforms and Strategy. In the responses to the two surveys conducted during 2014, a few stakeholders quoted figures from the Ontario Health Claims Database (HCDB) Standard Reports. These reports are based on analysis of data from HCAI. Figures from the HCDB Standards Reports provide useful information to better understand medical and rehabilitation costs in Ontario’s automobile insurance system. However, it is important to note that several factors78 limit the quality and usefulness of the data.

As such, it would be worthwhile to continue to improve the quality and quantity of the data reported through HCAI. If data from HCAI is to be relied on to inform decision making, it should be subject to vigorous validation testing and quality control. When data collected through HCAI becomes sufficiently robust, the Government may then explore performing more detailed analyses of the Reforms and Strategy based on the data. The expectation is that this could assist with developing a deeper understanding of healthcare related costs in the system.

6.1.4 Sharing and Monitoring Information from the PPA Insurance System

As discussed in the beginning of this Section, the Ontario PPA insurance system is complex and the system stakeholders often have differing perspectives on how to improve the Ontario PPA insurance system, particularly when it comes to defining the objectives of any proposed changes. As discussed in Sections 6.1.2 and 6.1.3, many stakeholders commented that they would welcome more information about the PPA insurance system. For these stakeholders, the benefits of enhanced sharing and monitoring of information would include improved efficiency as well as enhanced transparency and accountability for a range of stakeholders. In their view, efficiency improvements could be achieved by sharing information amongst the various stakeholders (i.e., the sharing of information may result in less divergence in views across stakeholder groups and enhance competition in the insurance system).

We think that there are merits to the view that additional sharing and monitoring of information would be of value to the PPA insurance system. Information can be shared in a number of ways, including through independent reports such as this. With reference to the discussion later in this report, the type of data to be shared is also important, such as access to HCAI data or the information underlying the FSCO benchmarks.

We note that another advantage of enhanced sharing and monitoring of information from the PPA insurance system would be to allow for early detection of issues that may lead to a disruption in the stability of the automobile insurance system. Additional information could also lead to reducing the level of uncertainty in the system.

6.1.5 Initiatives that May Reduce Claim Frequency

Many of the initiatives that are part the Reforms and Strategy have been focused on reducing the severity of claims. We suggest that there may be opportunities for stakeholders in the Ontario PPA insurance system to consider initiatives that may reduce the frequency of claims.

78 For example, HCAI data only includes costs from approved invoices and does not include disputed costs or reserves for costs that are expected to be incurred in the future.


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One suggestion that could be considered in this regard would be for the Government to lead initiatives aimed at reducing the frequency of MVA in Ontario. Other jurisdictions in Canada have been very successful in developing important public awareness campaigns aimed at changing driver behaviors to reduce the number of fatal accidents. For example, in Québec, there is some evidence that such campaigns have also contributed to reducing the frequency of less severe types of MVAs. It may be worthwhile for the Government to consult with various stakeholders to gather insights and discuss various approaches that could be used.

In addition to public awareness campaigns, many insurers are currently considering taking advantage of newer technologies that are expected to have a favorable impact on road safety and could contribute to reducing the frequency of MVAs. For example, the use of telematics, or usage-based insurance, not only rewards safer drivers, it is also thought to contribute to changing driver behaviour with the potential to reduce the overall accident frequency. The Government could contribute to this initiative by continuing to foster an environment where the rate regulator demonstrates openness to such programs79, in particular those that would include a component dedicated to improving drivers’ behaviour and that would, as a result, be expected to have a favorable impact on the overall claim frequency.

6.1.6 Other General Observations and Recommendations

The following is a list of potential actions to be considered by the Government and stakeholders:

― Publish the annual change in the average automobile insurance premium paid by drivers who have not had any accidents in the past year as a way to potentially encourage consumers to shop around for better automobile insurance rates. This is perhaps a role that could be performed by the consumer representative discussed in Section 6.1.1;

― Increase the transparency of investigation and inspection reports performed by Ontario’s public health units and health regulatory colleges80;

― Develop industry wide standards of practice for claim adjustment and settlement, and develop mechanisms for assessing adherence to these standards, perhaps through risk-based reviews by the regulator as part of an assessment of market conduct practices;

― Develop mechanisms to assess the impact of legal fees on costs to improve transparency. The impact of these fees are not as well understood as the fees from other stakeholders in the automobile insurance system (i.e., healthcare provider costs are regulated by FSCO and the total annual costs are reported through HCAI). As a way to increase transparency regarding legal costs, FSCO, or another government body, could be authorized to collect information on case-specific fee arrangements, disbursement and referral arrangement from lawyers and paralegals representing claimants of automobile insurance tort and SABS claims. It would then be possible to consider publishing an annual report on the information collected;

79 We note that FSCO published a bulletin on usage-based automobile insurance pricing in Ontario. https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-05-13.aspx. Accessed November 7, 2014. 80 We note that on October 5, 2014, the Ministry of Health announced changes that will enhance transparency of regulatory colleges.

https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-05-13.aspx


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― Encourage the use of new technology and technology improvements to reduce costs in the PPA insurance system. For example, there is an increasing number of technological innovations, such as collision avoidance systems, that are aimed at reducing or eliminating MVAs. In addition, insurers could also leverage technology to increasingly be able to manage and analyze large amounts of data in order to identify fraud, assist with pricing, and gain efficiency in the claims adjustment and settlement processes;

― Monitor the availability of qualified medical examiners; and

― Remain knowledgeable of the evolving opinions of stakeholders in the PPA insurance system.

6.2 Specific Recommendations

The recommendations discussed in Section 6.1 are directed at potentially benefitting the overall Ontario automobile insurance system. Section 6.2 presents more specific recommendations aimed at reducing uncertainty and costs.

6.2.1 FSCO Benchmarks

FSCO regularly publishes Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings (Technical Notes). The most recent note was published in October 201481. In the Technical Notes, FSCO often includes benchmark assumptions such as loss trends and Reforms loss cost adjustment factors. These benchmark assumptions are produced internally by FSCO based on FSCO’s actuarial analysis of industry data. It should be noted that FSCO has access to industry data that is at a level of detail that is not available to insurers and other industry participants (for example, the data from individual insurers). As such, because the data underlying the actuarial analyses is different, the benchmark assumptions produced by FSCO can be different than those derived by actuaries who rely on the overall industry data as published by GISA, without access to the details available to the FSCO actuaries. Regarding the benchmark Reforms loss cost adjustment factors, FSCO states in its Technical Notes that “FSCO’s benchmark factors are intended to apply to all insurers, on average. Due to the differences in risk distribution amongst insurers, the FSCO benchmark factors may be too high for some insurers, and too low for others.”

Actuaries in Canada who prepare insurers’ rate filings follow the Standards of Practice promulgated by the Actuarial Standards Board. The Standards of Practice instruct actuaries to “review the other actuary’s working papers.”82 Furthermore, paragraph 1610.07 of the Standards of Practice notes that in the case where actuaries are using and taking responsibility of another person’s work:

As long as doing so does not constitute unauthorized practice of another person’s profession, the actuary may use and take responsibility for another person’s work, given confidence that such actions are justified as a result of

81 FSCO, “Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings”, October 2014. Accessed on October 14, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/documents/technical-notes.pdf. 82 Actuarial Standards Board, “Standards of Practice”, paragraph 1610.10. Accessed on October 17, 2014. http://www.cia-ica.ca/docs/default-source/standards/SG101514e.pdf.


http://www.cia-ica.ca/docs/default-source/standards/SG101514e.pdf



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early and periodic communication with the other person,

confidence in the other person’s qualifications, competence, integrity, and objectivity,

the other person’s awareness of how the actuary intends to use the other person’s work,

communication to the other person of any information known to the actuary that may affect the other person’s work, and vice versa, and

study of any report by the other person and discussion of it with the other person, especially of any reservation in the report.

Paragraph 1610.08 states that “failing such confidence, the actuary would not take responsibility for the other person’s work.”

In our discussions with insurers for the Interim Report, many of them noted that they were instructed to provide indications using the FSCO benchmark factors as part of their rate filings. Many insurers’ actuaries have expressed the need to access the more detailed documentation and working papers underlying FSCO benchmark factors. In the spirit of the Standards of Practice, the exchange of information would allow insurers’ actuaries to review and better understand FSCO’s approach and assumptions and thus gain greater comfort in FSCO benchmark factors83.

We recommend that FSCO continue to work with representative actuaries to determine which underlying aspects of the benchmark factors84 can and should be shared with actuaries. Increased understanding between FSCO and representative actuaries may increase transparency and reduce uncertainty in the future. A reduction in uncertainty will aid in reducing PPA insurance rates.

6.2.2 FSCO Processes

The International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) publishes Insurance Core Principles, Standards, Guidance and Assessment Methodology (ICPs)85, which “provide a globally accepted framework for the supervision of the insurance sector.” The most recent ICPs contain 26 core principles, each dealing with a different aspect of insurance supervision. The ICPs state that “the supervisor must recognise that transparency and accountability in all its functions contribute to its legitimacy and credibility. A critical element of transparency is for the supervisor to provide the opportunity for meaningful public consultation on the development of supervisory policies, and in the

83 It is MOF’s understanding that to promote greater transparency, where insurer’s proposed rates are not supported, FSCO began sharing actuarial reports and summaries to support FSCO’s rate decisions in the review of insurer PPA rate filings. These new processes were designed to enhance insurer understanding of FSCO’s analysis of rating filings and its decisions in the fall and winter of 2013-14; the processes have now been incorporated into FSCO rate filing procedures. 84 It is MOF’s understanding that FSCO has provided additional detailed information on how FSCO’s benchmark on Reforms savings and loss trends were estimated. This is included in FSCO’s Technical Notes as an Appendix. The Appendix also outlines that there are data issues for one large insurer that reported to GISA. Due to confidentiality reasons FSCO cannot release information that would identify specific insurers. 85 IAIS, “Insurance Core Principles, Standards, Guidance and Assessment Methodology”, October 19, 2013. Accessed October 17, 2014, http://www.iaisweb.org/view/element_href.cfm?src=1/20567.pdf.

http://www.iaisweb.org/view/element_href.cfm?src=1/20567.pdf


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establishment of new and amended rules and regulations. To further ensure the proper functioning of the insurance sector and promote transparency and accountability, the supervisor should establish clear timelines for public consultation and action, where appropriate.”

We understand that the Rating and Underwriting Technical Advisory Committee (RUTAC), comprised of company representatives and actuaries, provides input to FSCO on its processes and proposed rate filing guidelines. An internet search of RUTAC revealed that FSCO has periodically consulted the committee on matters that pertain to changes to filing guidelines. We would encourage FSCO to continue to involve RUTAC early in any process that requires input and feedback. We would also encourage FSCO to provide an additional level of transparency and accountability by publishing on its website the role and membership composition of RUTAC. Continued and increased interaction with RUTAC by FSCO may help reduce uncertainty and provide stability to automobile insurance rates.

6.2.3 Recommendations for Cost Savings and Reducing Uncertainty based on Stakeholder Suggestions

We received numerous suggestions from stakeholders through the two surveys conducted during 2014. In this Section we present recommendations from survey respondents for actions to be considered by the Government and/or stakeholders in the Ontario PPA insurance system.

6.2.3.1 Medical Examinations

Government and/or stakeholders may consider continuing to set delivery standards and enact oversight requirements for third party medical examinations with a view to reducing friction, legal costs and backlog in the DRS. Another recommendation would be to conduct further study on the use of peer reviews of medical assessment to aid in dispute resolution.

6.2.3.2 Expand Use of HCAI Data and Implement Professional Credential Tracker

Several stakeholders suggested that HCAI data may help insurers increase the efficiency of their claim settlement process by providing insurers with additional data to analyze. The rationale is that with the additional data, insurers may have a better understanding of certain claim metrics, such as the average cost of examinations. Some stakeholders believe that with this additional understanding insurers may be able to achieve some efficiencies and additional savings on settling claims. Healthcare providers who have had a chance to use the PCT praise the tools for giving healthcare providers a means of combating fraud committed in their names. We understand that there are instances where the use of the PCT resulted in the prosecution of fraudulent activities.

6.2.3.3 Legal Fees

Related to the discussion presented in Section 6.1.4 of the 2014 Annual Report, stakeholders mentioned actions that could potentially reduce the impact of legal fees on claim costs and throughout the system. Based on the responses to the 2014 Annual Report Survey, legal fees may be contributing substantially to costs in the system. Recommendations with respect to legal fees included implementing a cap on lawyers’ contingency fees (the Insurance Brokers Association of Ontario (IBAO) cited the example of contingency fees as high as 40% of a claimant’s award and noted that in


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New Brunswick contingency fees are capped at 25%) and providing for an independent consumer representative to assist consumers with the claims settlement process such that consumers may not need to hire lawyers to assist them with the process86.

6.2.3.4 Administration of Medical Benefits

Most large insurers have sufficient volume of claims and a correspondingly large claims team such that this team has a wide variety of experience in adjudicating medical benefits claims and can develop consistent claims practices. Smaller insurers may not have the same volume of medical benefits claims to give their claim adjusters a similar level of experience. In order to apply more consistent claims adjudication processes, smaller insurers might consider retaining external administrators of medical benefits who have the necessary scale.

Alternatively, the group of small P&C insurers could work through the IBC to form a medical benefits administrator, similar to the way the Facility Association enables the industry to deal with high-risk drivers.

6.2.3.5 Further Study on Additional Tier of Limits Greater than $50,000

Some stakeholders mentioned that a limit of $50,000 for claimants found to be seriously injured but not catastrophically impaired is sometimes insufficient to treat injuries. These stakeholders are concerned that if the injury is not sufficiently treated when the $50,000 limit is reached, the injury may worsen and a catastrophic claim could be triggered at a later date. Such situations could result in unnecessary costs. Research and analysis should be conducted on the merits of adding another defined tier of injury with a limit greater than $50,000. This tier would fall between the current non-catastrophic and catastrophic definitions/limits. Intuitively this additional layer may appear to add cost to the system. However, if the additional tier of benefits reduces the number of catastrophic claims, the overall cost to the system may be reduced. Further study could assess whether an additional tier would benefit claimants who require extensive therapies and expert treatments while reducing overall costs to the system by reducing the number of catastrophic claims and the need for legal counsel.

6.3 Preview of 2015 Annual Report

The purpose of the 2015 Annual Report will be to continue to provide both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Strategy. The following approaches may be used:

― Review the progress of initiatives implemented under the Strategy, such as Bill 15, Fighting Fraud and Reducing Automobile Insurance Rates Act, 2014 as to whether they alleviate cost pressure within the automobile insurance system;

― Report on the progress related to the Government’s two-year average rate reduction target of 15%;

86 With an organization that walks claimants independently through the process, the need to seek legal counsel would be reserved only for the more serious cases.


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― Update the quantitative analysis of GISA data with data as of December 31, 2014; and

― Assess the effectiveness of the auto insurance marketplace in providing affordable premiums to consumers, particularly from the point of view of market competitiveness.

We do not anticipate conducting large-scale survey of stakeholders in the insurance system, but we may contact individual stakeholders for clarifications.

The 2015 Annual Report was originally scheduled to be released in August 2015. To provide for an opportunity to reflect data and input as of August 2015, as discussed with the Government, we expect to deliver the 2015 Annual Report during the Fall of 2015.


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7 APPENDIX A – SUMMARY OF INTERIM REPORT

The Interim Report was prepared using the following three approaches:

― Analysis of P&C insurers financial statements as at December 31, 2013; ― Analysis of GISA data as at June 30, 201387; and ― Summarization of information collected through the Interim Report Survey.

In this Appendix we summarize the Interim Report findings with respect to changes in claim costs and premiums, uncertainty in the Ontario PPA insurance system, as well as action steps that were suggested by insurers who participated in the Interim Report Survey.

The Interim Report also contains background information about the automobile insurance system. This information is not repeated in this report. Instead, readers are referred to the following sections of the Interim Report88 for further information:

― Section 1.6 Rates vs. Premiums; ― Appendix B – Best Practices for Actuarial Involvement in the Rate Regulatory Review; ― Appendix C – Primer on the P&C Insurance Industry; and ― Appendix D – Actuary’s Role in the Insurance Industry.

Due to the time constraints involved in producing the Interim Report, the Interim Report Survey was only sent to executives from insurers providing PPA insurance in Ontario. Recognizing that other stakeholders in the Ontario PPA insurance system may have a different perspective than that presented by insurers, it was noted in the Interim Report that the 2014 Annual Report would include consultation with additional stakeholders through a second survey process.

7.1.1 Change in Claim Costs and Premiums

Insurers who participated in the Interim Report Survey estimated that the Reforms increased the bodily injury portion of third party liability coverage (i.e., TPL-BI) claim costs by approximately 20%. Conversely, according to the insurers, the Reforms decreased AB claim costs by about 46%.

As noted in the Interim Report, based on a review of insurers’ financial statements and GISA data, it appears that the total earned premium for Ontario PPA increased annually by approximately 4%, 7%, 6.5%, 4%, and 1.6% from 2008 through 2013. Specifically, AB earned premium increased by about 9% and 5% in 2011 and 2012 respectively. The trend reversed between 2012 and 2013, with AB earned premium decreasing by approximately 1%. As such, it was also noted that the increases

87 The June 30, 2013 GISA data was the most recently available data at the time the Interim Report was prepared. 88 KPMG LLP, “Province of Ontario Ministry of Finance Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – Interim Report”, final release April 14, 2014. Accessed on September 12, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/kpmg-expert-report.pdf.


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observed in the overall PPA earned premium over the post-Reforms period of 2011 and 2012 could be explained in part by the increases in PPA AB premium.

The Interim Report also noted that the uncertainty in the system post-Reforms could be one of the reasons that the overall rate level did not decrease post-Reforms. In addition, the following were mentioned as some of the reasons contributing to increased AB premium post-Reforms:

― Increase in the number of insured vehicles at approximately 1.5% per annum;

― Deeply inadequate rates pre-Reforms that resulted in rate increases being implemented in 2010 and 2011; and

― Rate increases that were implemented pre-Reforms (i.e., prior to September 1, 2010) being earned up to August 31, 2012.

The Interim Report also mentioned that, as a review of financial statement and GISA data indicates that the rates underlying the premiums charged pre-Reforms were deeply inadequate, the 2011 rate indications might have been expected to result in significant rate increases if the Reforms had not taken place.

7.1.2 Uncertainty in the Ontario PPA Insurance System

The insurers responding to the Interim Report Survey identified a list of uncertainties in the Ontario PPA Insurance System that make it challenging for them to estimate past and future claim costs. These include:

― The erosion of the catastrophic impairment definition through case law as well as the lack of clarity on how the catastrophic impairment definition will be addressed by the Government;

― The pressure for claimants to move outside of the minor injury limits, and the uncertain impact of arbitration decisions on the MIG;

― The mediation and arbitration backlog, and the unpredictable outcome from the dispute resolution process;

― Transfer of claim costs between AB and TPL-BI and the slow emergence of TPL-BI claims;

― Delays in the rate reviews89 performed by FSCO and the application of FSCO benchmarks in rate reviews90;

89 MOF indicated that it is their understanding that FSCO has specific service standards as part of their rate review process, and that many of the delays that occur are a result of incomplete data and information submitted by insurers to FSCO. 90 MOF indicated that it is their understanding that FSCO invites insurers to compare their experience to the benchmark and provide any supporting information for changes. Moreover, MOF indicated that they understand that there is an increased reliance by smaller insurers on the FSCO benchmarks in estimating costs and setting rates due to limited data and experience.


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― The possible entitlement to optional benefits even in circumstances when endorsements are not purchased pre-accident; and

― Due to greater use of professional services, possible erosion of Regulation 347/13 effective February 1, 2014, which amended the attendant care coverage.

It is the insurers’ view that reducing uncertainties is critical to ensure the long-term sustainability of the PPA insurance system in Ontario.

7.1.3 Recommendations and Observations

Through the Interim Report Survey, the insurance companies provided recommended actions steps geared towards reducing costs in the Ontario PPA insurance system. These suggestions were summarized in the Interim Report.

In addition, it was observed during the preparation of the Interim Report that the Government is aware of its role and the need to do more to reduce rates for consumers. It was also noted that the insurance industry realizes it can have an impact on cost reduction. In addition, the Interim Report observed that other stakeholders, in addition to the insurers and government, also have a role to play in the management of costs.

We did not make any recommendations on further actions that could help achieve the rate reduction targets set by the Government. As explained in the Interim Report, it was felt that it was premature to provide these recommendations before seeking the input of a broader group of stakeholders, who could provide a range of different perspectives, through an expanded survey process.


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8 APPENDIX B – INDEPENDENT ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS

Bay Adelaide Centre 333 Bay Street Suite 4600 Toronto, ON M5H 2B5

Final Release: November 7, 2014

Prepared by:

Pierre Lepage, FCAS, FCIA (514) 840-2289

[email protected]

Anh Tu Le, FCAS, ACIA (647) 777-5352

[email protected]

Appendix B Independent Actuarial Analysis

as of December 31, 2013

Insurance Industry Practice Property & Casualty Actuarial Services

Ontario Private Passenger

Automobile

kpmg.ca

mailto:[email protected]

This document has been prepared by KPMG for the Government of Ontario (Government). KPMG neither warrants nor represents that the information contained in this document is accurate, complete, sufficient or appropriate for use by any person or entity other than the Government or for any purpose other than that set out in the Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – 2014 Annual Report. This document may not be relied upon by any person or entity other than the Government, and KPMG hereby expressly disclaims any and all responsibility or liability to any person or entity other than the Government in connection with their use of this document.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Independent Actuarial Analysis as of December 31, 2013 for Ontario Private Passenger Automobile i

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1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Identification of the Business under Review, Actuaries, and As of Date 1 1.2 Use and Distribution 1 1.3 Accepted Actuarial Practice 2 1.4 Organization of the Independent Actuarial Analysis 2 1.5 Data Reliance 2 1.6 Reliance on Other Actuaries 3 1.7 Conditions and Limitations (Limitations on Accuracy of Results) 3

1.7.1 Inherent Uncertainty.................................................................................................... 3 1.7.2 Extraordinary Future Emergence and Limitations of Ontario Private Passenger Automobile Historical Database ................................................................................................ 4 1.7.3 Rounding .................................................................................................................... 4

2 KEY RESULTS AND FINDINGS 5 2.1 Key Results and Findings 5

2.1.1 Identification of Sub-Coverages Analysed ................................................................... 5 2.1.2 Ultimate Claim Costs .................................................................................................. 6 2.1.3 Claim Cost Trends and Reforms Impacts .................................................................... 7

3 METHODOLOGY 10 3.1 DATA 10

3.1.1 Identifying the Data Needed ...................................................................................... 10 3.1.2 Attempting to Obtain the Data ................................................................................... 11 3.1.3 Reviewing the Data Obtained ................................................................................... 11 3.1.4 Assessing Sufficiency and Reliability of the Data Obtained ....................................... 12 3.1.5 GISA Data Limitations ............................................................................................... 12 3.1.6 Data Assumptions ..................................................................................................... 12

3.2 Summary of Changes Introduced by the Reforms 13 3.3 Ultimate Claim Costs 14

3.3.1 General Description of Methodologies ...................................................................... 15 3.3.1.1 Development Method ......................................................................................... 15 3.3.1.2 Frequency/Severity Method ............................................................................... 15 3.3.1.3 Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method ........................................................................... 16

3.3.2 Key Assumptions of the Projection Methodologies .................................................... 17 3.3.2.1 Development Patterns ....................................................................................... 17 3.3.2.2 Initial Expected Claims ....................................................................................... 18

3.3.3 Ultimate Claims by Sub-Coverage ............................................................................ 18 3.3.3.1 Third Party Liability – Bodily injury ..................................................................... 18 3.3.3.2 Third Party Liability – Property Damage ............................................................. 19 3.3.3.3 Third Party Liability – Direct Compensation ....................................................... 20 3.3.3.4 Accident Benefits – Disability Income ................................................................ 20 3.3.3.5 Accident Benefits – Death Benefits .................................................................... 21 3.3.3.6 Accident Benefits – Funeral ............................................................................... 21 3.3.3.7 Accident Benefits – Medical & Rehabilitation ..................................................... 22 3.3.3.8 Accident Benefits – Supplementary ................................................................... 23

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Independent Actuarial Analysis as of December 31, 2013 for Ontario Private Passenger Automobile ii

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3.3.3.9 Collision Including the All Perils Component ...................................................... 23 3.3.3.10 Comprehensive Including the All Perils Component ........................................... 23 3.3.3.11 Specified Perils .................................................................................................. 23 3.3.3.12 Accident Benefits – Uninsured Automobile ........................................................ 24 3.3.3.13 Underinsured Motorist ........................................................................................ 24

3.4 Trends and Reforms Impacts 25 3.4.1 General Description of Methodologies ...................................................................... 25 3.4.2 Trends and Reforms Impacts By Sub-Coverage ....................................................... 26

3.4.2.1 Third Party Liability – Bodily injury ..................................................................... 26 3.4.2.2 Third Party Liability – Property Damage ............................................................. 26 3.4.2.3 Third Party Liability – Direct Compensation ....................................................... 26 3.4.2.4 Accident Benefits – Disability Income ................................................................ 26 3.4.2.5 Accident Benefits – Death Benefits .................................................................... 27 3.4.2.6 Accident Benefits – Funeral ............................................................................... 27 3.4.2.7 Accident Benefits – Medical & Rehabilitation ..................................................... 27 3.4.2.8 Accident Benefits – Supplementary ................................................................... 27 3.4.2.9 Collision ............................................................................................................. 28 3.4.2.10 Comprehensive .................................................................................................. 28 3.4.2.11 Specified Perils .................................................................................................. 28

3.5 Sensitivities 28 3.5.1 Exclusion of a Major Writer from GISA Data ............................................................. 28

3.5.1.1 Third Party Liability – Bodily injury ..................................................................... 29 3.5.1.2 Accident Benefits – Disability Income ................................................................ 29 3.5.1.3 Accident Benefits – Medical & Rehabilitation ..................................................... 30

3.5.2 Length of Historical Periods ...................................................................................... 31 3.5.2.1 Third Party Liability – Bodily injury ..................................................................... 31 3.5.2.2 Accident Benefits – Disability Income ................................................................ 32 3.5.2.3 Accident Benefits – Medical & Rehabilitation ..................................................... 32

3.5.3 Iterative Model .......................................................................................................... 32 3.5.3.1 Third Party Liability – Bodily injury ..................................................................... 33 3.5.3.2 Accident Benefits – Disability Income ................................................................ 34 3.5.3.3 Accident Benefits – Medical & Rehabilitation ..................................................... 34

4 EXHIBITS 35

Independent Actuarial Analysis as of December 31, 2013 for Ontario Private Passenger Automobile 1

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1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Identification of the Business under Review, Actuaries, and As of Date

As part of the Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – 2014 Annual Report (2014 Annual Report), the Ontario Ministry of Finance (MOF) requested KPMG LLP (KPMG) to prepare a quantitative analysis of the most recent data available, at the Ontario private passenger automobile (PPA) insurance industry level, to identify any decreases in PPA insurance claim costs since the major reforms introduced in September 2010 (Reforms) by the Government of Ontario (Government) and explore whether any of the identified decreases in PPA insurance claim costs have resulted in decreases in the average automobile insurance rates.

This Independent Actuarial Analysis focuses on the Ontario PPA claims experience at December 31, 2013 and was prepared by Mr. Pierre Lepage and Ms. Anh Tu Le. Mr. Lepage is a Fellow of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (FCIA) and a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (FCAS). Ms. Le is an Associate of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (ACIA) and an FCAS.

Contact details are:

Pierre Lepage

Partner, P&C Actuarial Services

KPMG Canada

Bay Adelaide Centre

333 Bay Street, Suite 4600

Toronto, ON M5H 2S5

Email: [email protected]

Tel: 514-840-2289

Fax: 416-777-8818

Anh Tu Le

Consulting Actuary, P&C Actuarial Services

KPMG Canada

Bay Adelaide Centre

333 Bay Street, Suite 4600

Toronto, ON M5H 2S5

Email: [email protected]

Tel: 647-777-5352

Fax: 416-777-8818

1.2 Use and Distribution

This Independent Actuarial Analysis is part of the 2014 Annual Report, which was initiated as a transparency and accountability mechanism by the Government as part of the 2013 Ontario Budget1 (2013 Budget).

We understand that the 2014 Annual Report, including Appendix B - Independent Actuarial Analysis as of December 31, 2013 (Independent Actuarial Analysis), will be a publicly available document. We consent to such distribution on the condition that the Government will distribute the 2014 Annual Report in its entirety including all text and supporting appendices rather than any excerpts.

1 The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “2013 Ontario Budget Chapter IV: Tax, Pension and Financial Services”, last modified May 2, 2013. Accessed on September 20, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html#ch4c.




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Any use or reliance on the 2014 Annual Report, including the Independent Actuarial Analysis, by any third party is done at their own risk. KPMG will not be liable for the consequences of any third party acting upon or relying upon any information or conclusions contained in this report.

This Independent Actuarial Analysis is prepared to provide a detailed documentation of the processes, methodology, and assumptions underlying the quantitative analysis of the most recent data available, at the Ontario private passenger automobile (PPA) insurance industry level. The exhibits attached in support of our findings and conclusions are an integral part of the Independent Actuarial Analysis. These sections are prepared so that our actuarial assumptions and judgments are documented. Judgments about the conclusions drawn in this appendix of the 2014 Annual Report should be made only after considering the Independent Actuarial Analysis in its entirety.

Our findings and conclusions are based on a number of assumptions. These assumptions, which are documented in subsequent sections of the Independent Actuarial Analysis, must be understood in order to place our conclusions in their appropriate context. In addition, our findings are subject to reliances and inherent limitations, which are also discussed in the Independent Actuarial Analysis.

1.3 Accepted Actuarial Practice

This Independent Actuarial Analysis of Ontario PPA experience is conducted in accordance with accepted actuarial practice in Canada.

1.4 Organization of the Independent Actuarial Analysis

The Independent Actuarial Analysis is organized in the following four major parts:

- Introduction; - Key results and findings; - Methodology; and

- Exhibits.

The exhibits are organized by sub-coverage and present the details of the selection of ultimate claims as well as the derivation of claim cost trends and impacts of the Reforms on claim cost levels (Reforms Impacts).

The estimates of ultimate claim costs contained in the Independent Actuarial Analysis are on a direct undiscounted basis. Reported claims include paid claims and provision for case estimates (also known as case outstanding). In the Independent Actuarial Analysis, the term IBNR is used in a broad, general sense, to represent development on case estimates (also referred to as supplemental or IBNER, incurred but not enough reported) and unreported claims (also referred to as pure IBNR).

1.5 Data Reliance

In preparing the Independent Actuarial Analysis, industry claim experience taken from the General Insurance Statistical Agency (GISA) exhibits related to All-Industry Ontario Automobile Insurance


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Private Passenger (excluding Farmers) Class of Business (PPA GISA Exhibits) compiled by the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), on behalf of GISA, are the primary data sources.

Each of the insurers underwriting automobile insurance in Canada submit data under the Automobile Statistical Plan to IBC who then assembles the PPA GISA Exhibits. IBC performs numerous data edit checks, which are designed to promote data integrity. It is impractical for us to independently audit or verify the data due to the number of companies submitting data and our remoteness from the individual data elements. Therefore, we rely on the IBC/GISA data without independent audit or verification.

While we do not audit or independently verify the data provided by IBC on behalf of GISA, we do review the data for reasonableness and consistency. We also reconcile the data received electronically to the published reports. The underlying claim, expense, premium, and exposure data form the basis of our analysis and our findings and conclusions. Thus, the accuracy of this data is critical. The data contained in the 2013-2 PPA GISA Exhibits are deemed reliable and sufficient to perform the quantitative analysis requested by the MOF; and we use this data as published by GISA without modification.

In particular, we rely on the accident year claim development triangles and earned premium amounts published by GISA. All data are at December 31, 2013.

1.6 Reliance on Other Actuaries

Canadian actuarial standards of practice (SOP) are promulgated by the Actuarial Standards Board (ASB)2. Sections 1610.01 and 1610.02 of the SOP state: “The actuary may use and take responsibility for another person’s work if such actions are justified. If the actuary uses but does not take responsibility for another person’s work, then the actuary should so report.”

In valuing the ultimate claim costs for Ontario PPA at December 31, 2013, the work of Mr. Liam M. McFarlane, FCIA, FCAS, of Ernst & Young LLP (EY) was referenced for comparison purpose.

Mr. McFarlane has been engaged since 2009 to establish estimates of the all-industry Ontario PPA development factors for both the number and the amount of reported claims by accident half-year and full accident year on behalf of GISA. He has extensive experience with and knowledge of the Canadian automobile insurance market.

1.7 Conditions and Limitations (Limitations on Accuracy of Results)

1.7.1 Inherent Uncertainty

It must be understood that estimates of ultimate claim costs, claim cost trends, and Reforms Impacts are subject to large potential errors of estimation. The ultimate disposition of claims,

2 The ASB was established by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) as an independent body; the mission of the ASB is to develop, establish, and maintain Standards of Practice governing actuarial practice in Canada. Throughout this Independent Actuarial Analysis, we use the abbreviation “SOP” to refer to Canadian actuarial Standards of Practice promulgated by the ASB.


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whether incurred prior to or following the as of date, is subject to the outcome of events that have not yet occurred. Examples of these events include jury decisions, court interpretations, legislative changes, public attitudes, and social/economic conditions such as inflation. Any estimate of future costs underlying claim liabilities is subject to the inherent limitation on one’s ability to predict the aggregate course of future events. It should therefore be expected that the actual emergence of claims will vary, perhaps materially, from any estimate. The true ultimate claim costs for occurrence prior to December 31, 2013 will only be known after the passage of time – when the last claim has closed. Thus, no assurance can be given that the actual ultimate claim costs at December 31, 2013, for the Ontario PPA insurance industry as a whole, will not ultimately differ from the estimates contained herein.

In our judgment, we employ techniques and assumptions that are appropriate, and the conclusions presented herein are reasonable given the information currently available.

1.7.2 Extraordinary Future Emergence and Limitations of Ontario Private Passenger Automobile Historical Database

The Reforms are taken into account explicitly through the use of Reforms adjustment factors and judgmentally through our selections of actuarial projection factors (such as age-to-factors and trend factors) and methodologies for selecting ultimate claims for the most recent three accident years.

The estimates of ultimate claim costs make no provision for potential future claims arising from causes not contained in the historical data. As our analysis is based entirely on the underlying claim data from Ontario PPA at the all-industry level, the projections will only include those categories of claims that are included within the historical experience. Thus, to the extent that certain claim types are either not present or have very limited frequency in the database, our future claim projections will not provide for such claims.

1.7.3 Rounding

All figures in the supporting exhibits are carried to a greater number of decimals than shown. Thus, totals and calculations may not agree due to rounding.


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2 KEY RESULTS AND FINDINGS

2.1 Key Results and Findings

This section summarizes our estimates of ultimate claim costs, claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts for Ontario PPA based on GISA published data as of December 31, 2014. The underlying claim projection approach is documented in Section 3.3, while the derivation of claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts is presented in Sections 3.4. Our quantitative analysis is further detailed in exhibits contained in Section 4.

2.1.1 Identification of Sub-Coverages Analysed

Table 1 shows the injury and non-injury sub-coverages reviewed as part of the Independent Actuarial Analysis. Each sub-coverage listed in the table is analysed in a specific segment of Exhibit A. For ease of reference, these segments are identified in the third column of Table 1.

Table 1: Sub-Coverages

Coverage Group Sub-Coverage Segment

Injury Third Party Liability – Bodily injury (TPL-BI)

Accident Benefits – Disability Income (AB-DI)

Accident Benefits – Death Benefits (AB-DB)

Accident Benefits – Funeral (AB-F)

Accident Benefits – Medical & Rehabilitation (AB-MR)

Accident Benefits – Supplementary (AB-SUP)

Accident Benefits – Uninsured Automobile (AB-UA)

Underinsured Motorist (UM)

I IV V VI VII VIII XII XIII

Non-injury

Third Party Liability – Property Damage (TPL-PD)

Third Party Liability – Direct Compensation (TPL-DC)

Collision (COL)

Comprehensive (COM)

Specified Perils (SP)

II III IX X XI


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2.1.2 Ultimate Claim Costs

We calculate the ultimate claim costs for Ontario PPA as of December 31, 2013 based on industry data as reported by GISA. The dataset is net of the same data exclusions stemming from GISA’s validation procedures.3 Section 3.3.1 describes the actuarial projection methods used for this analysis. Table 2 summarizes the overall results.

Table 2: Summary of Accident Year Direct Premium and Claim based on GISA Data

($m) Ontario PPA

Accident Year

Earned Premium

Incurred Claim and Expense4

Ultimate Claim and Expense5

Accident Year Claim Ratio

2008 8,373 6,408 6,895 82%

2009 8,729 7,678 8,254 95%

2010 9,410 7,821 8,338 89%

2011 10,038 6,083 6,698 67%

2012 10,441 6,051 6,678 64%

2013 10,585 6,910 7,329 69%

The results presented in Table 2 indicate an improvement of 22 percentage points in the accident year claim ratio from 2010 to 2011. This improvement is explained by a decline in estimated ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses of $1.6 billion, together with an increase in earned premiums of $0.6 billion from 2010 to 2011. Similarly, the results presented in Table 2 indicate that the accident year claim ratio improved by 25 percentage points from 2010 to 2012, due to estimated ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses decreasing by $1.7 billion while earned premiums increased by $1.0 billion. The very preliminary estimate for the 2013 claim ratio still shows an improvement of 20 percentage points when compared to 2010 and a deterioration of 5 percentage points when compared t0 2012.

As the claims from a given accident year mature, the estimate of ultimate claim costs can normally

be expected to become more certain, and the various actuarial projection methods will tend to

converge to a narrower range of estimates. Section 3.3.3 highlights the variability of estimates of

ultimate claim costs for TPL-BI, AB-DI and AB-MR for accident year 2011 and onward. Because of

this variability, estimates of ultimate claims costs for these post-Reforms accident years continue to

be very uncertain. As such, on-going monitoring of the estimates will be necessary in order to

measure the performance of Ontario PPA insurance over this time period.

3 I.e., the Independent Actuarial Analysis is based on data from the PPA GISA Exhibits. 4 Expenses include claim adjustment expenses (CAE) only. 5 Expenses include claim adjustment expenses (CAE) only.


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2.1.3 Claim Cost Trends and Reforms Impacts

For each automobile insurance sub-coverage listed in Table 1, we estimate the claim cost trends

and the Reforms Impacts. Our analysis is based on the industry data reported by GISA as of

December 31, 20136.

Section 3.2 summarizes the changes introduced by the Reforms. The following sub-coverages were

most affected by the Reforms: TPL-BI, AB-DI and AB-MR. Other Accident Benefits sub-coverages

such as AB-DB and AB-F were also affected but to a lesser degree. Table 3 summarizes our best

estimates of the impact of Reforms on claim cost trends and claim cost levels based on the analysis

and the methodologies described in Section 3.4.

Our analysis indicates that there is a strong inter-dependency between the estimated claim cost

trends (both pre- and post-Reforms) and the impact of Reforms on claim cost levels. Consequently,

estimates of claim cost trends, pre- and post-Reforms, as well as the estimates of Reforms Impacts

should be extracted from the same modelling approach with the same underlying data and

assumptions, and should be read and interpreted conjointly for a given coverage and sub-coverage.

In other words, Reforms Impacts on claim cost levels shown in the last column of Table 3: Summary

of Estimated Claim Cost Trends and Reforms Impacts should not be used in combination with claim cost

trends stemming from another model or data source.

Table 3: Summary of Estimated Claim Cost Trends and Reforms Impacts

Sub-Coverages Trends

Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels

Third Party Liability – Bodily Injury (TPL-BI) 5.3% 5.3% 0%

TPL-Property Damage (TPL-PD) 1.4% 1.4% 0%

TPL-Direct Compensation Property Damage (TPL-DC) 0.8% 0.8% 0%

Underinsured Motorist (UM) 4.0% 4.0% 0%

Total TPL+UM 3.9% 4.0% 0%

Accident Benefits – Medical and Rehabilitation (AB-MR) 17.0% 0.7% -48.1%

AB-Disability Income (AB-DI) 7.6% -0.2% -27.4%

AB-Funeral Expenses (AB-F) -6.2% -6.2% 0%

AB-Death Benefits (AB-DB) -8.4% -2.7% 0%

AB-Supplementary (SUP) 0.0% 0.0% 0%

6 The dataset used is net of the same data exclusions stemming from GISA’s validation procedures (i.e., the GISA data that we used in this report is consistent with the data that GISA publishes externally.)


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Sub-Coverages Trends

Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels

Uninsured Automobile (AB-UA) 4.4% 4.4% 0%

Total AB+UA 14.9% 0.7% -43.2%


Collision (COL) -1.4% -1.4% 0%

Comprehensive (COM) -3.2% -3.2% 0%

Total Physical Damages (PhysD) -1.9% -1.9% 0%


Table 3 shows that:

― The pre-Reforms claim cost trend was significant at 10.2% per annum for Total Compulsory Coverages.

― The Reforms appear to have had a significant impact on claim cost trends; based on the first three years of data, the claim cost trend post-Reforms is estimated at 2.7% for Total Compulsory Coverages.

― With the Reforms, the reduction of average claim cost level is estimated at 25.7% for Total Compulsory Coverages.

We note that any estimates or analysis of claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts are highly

dependent on the dataset, as well as the modeling approach, length of data history, and

assumptions. In Section 3.5, we perform sensitivity analyses on the data source, the length of

historical period and the iterative model. The following charts illustrate the variability of estimates for

pre- and post-Reforms trends and Reforms Impacts for the each of the three main coverages

affected by the Reforms.

7 Weighted based on 2009 ultimate claim costs. 8 Weighted based on 2013 ultimate claim costs. 9 Weighted based on 2009 ultimate claim costs that have been trended by one year.

Pre-Reforms Trend Estimates

TP

L

BI

AB

MR

AB DI

-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

KPMG FSCO

Post-Reforms Trend Estimates

TP

L

BI

AB

MR

AB DI

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

KPMG FSCO

AB DI

Reforms Impact Estimates

TP

L

BI

AB

MR

-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

KPMG FSCO


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The charts highlight the significant variability in pre- and post-Reforms claim cost trend estimates.

The variability of the post-Reforms claim cost trends is not surprising since the estimates are only

based on three years of data. These results should be considered to be early estimates based on

the most recent data available. The demarcation between new emerging claim cost trends and

volatility in claim costs is blurry. As such, the claim cost trends post-Reforms are subject to a higher

degree of uncertainty. For instance, Exhibit A, Page 7a of the corresponding sections show that

TPL-BI, AB-MR and AB-DI estimated claim costs have increased by 16.5%, 13.8% and 16.0%

respectively between 2012 and 2013. Approximately 7% of the increase may be due to the harsh

winter, as observed by the change in estimated TPL-DC frequency on Exhibit A, Section III, Page

7a. These recent claim cost movements also stress the importance of continuous monitoring of

claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts. More importantly, it points to the necessity of determining

and thoroughly documenting the estimates of pre- and post-Reforms trends as well as the Reforms

Impacts that are specific for each insurer’s circumstances.

Section 3.4.2 of this Independent Actuarial Analysis mentions that a noticeable temporary surge in

claim frequency appears to have affected the Ontario PPA insurance results between mid-2009 and

the end of 2010. Possible explanation for such a surge could be linked to an acceleration in claims

filing, treatment and procedure requests, and partial or full claim settlements in anticipation of the

Reforms. Based on the available data, it would appear that the claim surge resorbed itself quickly

after the adoption of the Reforms. This claim surge would not have been anticipated at the time the

Reforms were devised. In this analysis, to avoid overestimating the impact of the Reforms on claim

cost levels, the estimates were adjusted to exclude the effect of the temporary claim surge and the

following self-correction. As such, to fully measure the change in claim costs since 2009, the

adjusted Reforms Impacts would need to be combined with further frequency adjustments reflecting

the temporary claim surge experienced in accident half-years 2009-12, 2010-06 and 2010-12.

Based on the analysis performed, this frequency adjustment could possibly represent 8% to 10% of

the AB-MR and AB-DI claim costs during that period.


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3 METHODOLOGY In Section 3 of the Independent Actuarial Assessment, we:

Discuss the data used for the quantitative analysis;

Summarize key coverage changes arising from the Reforms;

Summarize our analysis of estimated ultimate claim costs by sub-coverage. This summary includes a discussion of the methodologies used to estimate the ultimate claim costs;

Discuss the Reforms Impacts and post-Reforms trends by sub-coverage; and

Discuss the sensitivity of the estimates of trends and Reforms Impacts to different choices of data, modelling approach, and assumptions.

3.1 DATA

The SOP outline the responsibilities of the actuary with respect to data. According to Section 1530.02 of the SOP:

The work with respect to data consists of

identifying the data needed,

attempting to obtain them,

reviewing the data obtained, and

assessing sufficiency and reliability of the data obtained.

3.1.1 Identifying the Data Needed

To conduct the quantitative analysis for Ontario PPA experience at the industry level, we identify the following data requirements by coverage and sub-coverage:


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Development triangles on direct basis for the following categories of claims (including ALAE):

- Paid - Case estimates - Reported (sum of paid and case estimates) - Closed counts (including closed with payment and closed without payment) - Open (also referred to as pending) counts - Reported counts; and

Exposure information by accident year including earned premium and earned exposures.

3.1.2 Attempting to Obtain the Data

All of the data identified in Section 3.1.1 is available through the PPA Exhibits published by GISA.

3.1.3 Reviewing the Data Obtained

Each of the insurers underwriting automobile insurance in Canada submit data under the Automobile Statistical Plan to IBC who then assembles the data underlying the PPA GISA Exhibits. IBC performs numerous data edit checks, which are designed to promote data integrity. It is impractical for us to independently audit or verify the data due to the number of companies submitting data and our remoteness from the individual data elements. Therefore, we rely on the IBC/GISA data without independent audit or verification.

While we do not audit or independently verify the data provided by IBC on behalf of GISA, we do review the data for reasonableness and consistency. We also reconcile the data received electronically to the published reports. The underlying claim, claim adjustment expense, premium, and exposure data form the basis of our analysis and our findings and conclusions. Thus, the accuracy of this data is critical.

GISA bulletin 2014-61 titled 2013 Automobile Exhibit Introduction and Actual Loss Ratio Exhibit – Ontario outlines the validation and verification procedures as well as the consistency and reasonability checks that IBC performed, leading to some data exclusions. As mentioned in GISA bulletin 2014-61,

Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the data. The responsibility for any errors or omissions in the data submitted under the statistical plan and presented in these exhibits remains with the reporting companies.10

The data contained in the 2013-2 PPA GISA Exhibits are deemed reliable and sufficient to perform the quantitative analysis requested by the MOF; and we use this data as published by GISA without modification.

10 GISA, “2013 Automobile Exhibit Introduction and Actual Loss Ratio Exhibit – Ontario”, bulletin 2014-61, July 11, 2014.


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3.1.4 Assessing Sufficiency and Reliability of the Data Obtained

As noted above, while we do not audit or independently verify the data provided by IBC on behalf of GISA, we do review the data for reasonableness and consistency. We also reconcile the data received electronically to the published reports.

The data contained in the 2013-2 PPA GISA Exhibits are deemed reliable and sufficient to perform the quantitative analysis requested by the MOF; and we use this data as published by GISA without modification.

3.1.5 GISA Data Limitations

GISA bulletin 2014-61 mentions:

The incurred claim amount factors, and the derived ultimate claim counts, for the most recent periods in the Accident Benefits (AB) coverage, are subject to a larger degree of uncertainty than usual. This uncertainty arises from many companies reporting large increases in case reserves in accident year 2009, but in greater part due to a significant change in the case reserving process of a major writer impacting the 2009-1 and subsequent diagonals. This change has had a material impact on the observed Private Passenger incurred claim amount factors for certain AB sub-coverage groups. As a result, the Private Passenger incurred claim amount factors were calculated on an all-industry basis excluding this major writer and applied to the all-industry data (including this major writer) for certain AB sub-coverage groups.11

For confidentiality reasons, GISA does not release the detailed data that would allow actuaries to independently assess the data exclusions and to reproduce GISA’s selection of development factors.

The published GISA data are not granular enough to allow similar exclusions. Thus reported claims, reported development factors, ultimate claim estimates, claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts, as outlined in Sections 3.3 and 0, are all derived using the all-industry basis.

3.1.6 Data Assumptions

According to the SOP, data assumptions are the assumptions, if any, needed to relieve insufficiency or unreliability in the obtainable data. There are no data assumptions required for the quantitative analysis presented in this Appendix, and we conclude that the data published by GISA is sufficiently reliable for the purpose of this analysis, notwithstanding the possible distortion due to significant changes in the case reserving process of a major writer.

11 GISA, “2013 Automobile Exhibit Introduction and Actual Loss Ratio Exhibit – Ontario”, bulletin 2014-61, July 11, 2014.


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3.2 Summary of Changes Introduced by the Reforms

On September 1, 2010, a new Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule (SABS) became effective in Ontario. Table 4 summarizes the key changes introduced by the Reforms:

Table 4: Coverage Changes Introduced with the Reforms

Pre-Reforms12 Post-Reforms13

Medical Payments $100,000/person ($1 million if injury

"catastrophic"), including rehabilitation,

excluding health insurance and other

medical plans; attendant care $72,000

($1 million if injury "catastrophic").

Up to $3,500 for minor injury; up to

$50,000/person for non-minor and non-

catastrophic injury for up to 10 years; up to $1

million for catastrophic injury; attendant care

up to $36,000 for non-minor and non-

catastrophic injury up to 104 weeks; up to $1

million for catastrophic injury.

Funeral expense benefits: $7,843 (indexed) $6,000 (if optional indexation coverage is

purchased, this amount may be higher).

Disability income benefits Income Replacement Benefit 80% of

net wages up to $400/week, minimum

$185/week; for 104 weeks maximum

(longer if victim is unable to pursue

any suitable occupation); capped at 12

weeks for Whiplash Associated

Disorder I (WAD I) injuries and 16

weeks for WAD II injuries; seven-day

wait.

Non-Earner Benefit (disabled

unemployed persons, students

enrolled in education full-time, or

students who completed their

education less than one year before

the accident and are not employed)

$185/week for 104 weeks; 26-week

wait; indexed; limit two years; if

student (as defined above) is still

disabled after 104 weeks, Non-Earner

Benefit is $320/week.

Income Replacement Benefit: 70% of gross

wages to maximum $400/week, minimum

$185/week for 104 weeks (longer if victim is

unable to pursue any suitable occupation);

nothing is payable for the first seven days of

disability.

Non-earner Benefit (disabled unemployed

persons, students enrolled in education full

time, or students who completed their

education less than one year before the

accident and are not employed): $185/week

for 104 weeks; 26-week wait; limit two years;

if student (as defined above) is still disabled

after 104 weeks, Non-earner Benefit is

$320/week. Not available if the insured is

eligible for, and elects to receive, the income

replacement or caregiver benefit.

Death benefits Death within 180 days (or three years

if continuously disabled prior to death);

$65,360 minimum to spouse; $13,072

Death within 180 days of accident (or three

years if continuously disabled prior to death);

$25,000 minimum to spouse, $10,000 to each

surviving dependant, $10,000 to each

12 IBC, “Facts of the General Insurance Industry in Canada - 2009”, Facts 34th Edition, 2009. ISSN 1197 3404 13 IBC, “Facts of the Property & Casualty Insurance Industry in Canada – 2013”, Facts 35th Edition, 2013. ISSN 1197 3404


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Pre-Reforms12 Post-Reforms13

to surviving dependant; death of

dependant $13,072 (indexed).

parent/guardian (if optional indexation

coverage is purchased, these amounts may

be higher).

Right to sue for pain and

suffering?

Yes, if injury meets verbal threshold;

subject to deductible. Lawsuit allowed

only if injured person dies or sustains

"permanent and serious"

disfigurement and/or impairment of

important physical, mental or

psychological function. The court

assesses damages and deducts

$30,000 ($15,000 if Family Law Act

claim).

Yes, if injury meets severity test (called

“threshold”), and subject to deductible.

Lawsuit allowed only if injured person dies or

sustains permanent and serious

disfigurement and/or impairment of important

physical, mental or psychological function.

The court assesses damages and deducts

$30,000 ($15,000 for a Family Law Act claim).

Right to sue for economic

loss in excess of no-fault

benefits?

Yes. Injured person may sue for 80%

of net income loss before trial, 100%

of gross after trial; also for medical,

rehabilitation and related costs when

injury meets verbal threshold for pain

and suffering claims.

Yes. Income replacement award above no-

fault benefit is based on net income after

deductions for income tax, Canada Pension

and Employment Insurance.

Injured person may sue for 70% of net

income loss before trial, 100% of gross after

trial; also for medical, rehabilitation and

related costs when injury meets severity test

for pain and suffering claims.

Although the new standard auto insurance policies began to apply on or after September 1, 2010, some of the Reforms changes also applied to:

Auto insurance claims that occurred after November 1, 1996 and were open on or after September 1, 2010; and

Auto insurance policies that were in-force as of September 1, 2010, before their renewal on or after September 1, 2010.

In this Independent Actuarial Analysis, we consider the effect of the Reforms on the estimates of ultimate claim costs. We assumed that the Ontario automobile insurance industry incorporated changes into its case estimates where relevant, and we adjust actuarial assumptions for accident years 2010 through 2013 to explicitly reflect our expectations of the influence of the Reforms on recent and future claim experience in Ontario.

3.3 Ultimate Claim Costs

In Section 3.3 of this Independent Actuarial Analysis, we summarize our analysis of estimated ultimate claim costs by sub-coverage. We begin this summary with a discussion of the methodologies used to estimate the ultimate claim costs.


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3.3.1 General Description of Methodologies

For both injury and non-injury coverage groups, ultimate claims are generally selected based on three traditional P&C actuarial methods: claim development, frequency-severity, and Bornhuetter-Ferguson. An important input to the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method is an estimate of expected claims, derived from the expected claims method using earned premium and an initial expected claim ratio. For the frequency-severity method, ultimate frequencies (i.e., ultimate counts per vehicle) are selected based on a comparison of projected ultimate counts to earned vehicles by accident year. Ultimate severities are selected based on a review of the development method applied to average paid values and to average incurred values. Selected severities for accident years 2010 through 2013 are explicitly adjusted to reflect the cost levels recognizing recent trends and the Reforms in Ontario. Below, we briefly describe each of these methods. For further information, the reader is referred to the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) text titled Estimating Unpaid Claims Using Basic Techniques, which was written by Jacqueline Friedland (Version 3), July 30, 2010, http://www.casact.org/pubs/Friedland_estimating.pdf

3.3.1.1 Development Method

The development method, also known as the chain ladder method, is one of the most frequently used methodologies for estimating unpaid claims. The distinguishing characteristic of the development method is that ultimate claims for each accident year are produced from recorded values assuming that future claims’ development is similar to prior years’ development. In this method, the actuary uses the development triangles to track the development history of a specific group of claims. The underlying assumption in the development technique is that claims recorded to date will continue to develop in a similar manner in the future – that the past is indicative of the future. That is, the development technique assumes that the relative change in a given year’s claims from one evaluation point to the next is similar to the relative change in prior years’ claims at similar evaluation points.

An implicit assumption in the development technique is that, for an immature accident year, the claims observed thus far tell you something about the claims yet to be observed. This is in contrast to the assumptions underlying the expected claims and Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods.

Other important assumptions of the development method include: consistent claim processing, a stable mix of types of claims, stable policy limits, and stable reinsurance/retention limits throughout the experience period.

3.3.1.2 Frequency/Severity Method

The frequency/severity method can be extremely valuable, especially when an organization is facing change arising from either internal or external forces. When using the frequency/severity method, the actuary is able to analyze the drivers of the ultimate claim values by examining the frequency and severity components separately and then multiplying the selected values to project the ultimate claim amounts. In the simplest form, the frequency/severity method multiplies the selected frequency rate by earned exposures in order to produce an estimate of ultimate counts; the ultimate counts are then multiplied by the selected severity value (i.e., the average cost per claim) to project the ultimate claims.

http://www.casact.org/pubs/Friedland_estimating.pdf


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Two key assumptions of the frequency/severity method include: (a) claim counts are defined consistently over time, and (b) the mix by type of claim is reasonably consistent. Other important assumptions of the frequency/severity method are related to the adjustments used to restate historical experience at the cost level expected for future accident years. These are very significant assumptions for Ontario PPA, as historical experience is used to project ultimate claims for the most recent accident years, which are subject to a substantially different environment due to trend and Reforms.

3.3.1.3 Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

Actuaries rely on the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method almost as often as they rely on the development method. The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method is essentially a blend of the development and expected claims methods (the frequency-severity method is used to determine the expected claims in this quantitative analysis). In the development method, we multiply actual claims by a cumulative claim development factor. This method can lead to erratic, unreliable projections when the cumulative development factor is large because a relatively small swing in reported claims or the reporting of an unusually large claim could result in a very large swing in projected ultimate claims. In the expected claims method, the unpaid claim estimate is equal to the difference between a predetermined estimate of expected claims and the actual payments. This has the advantage of stability, but it completely ignores actual results reported to date. The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method combines the two methods by splitting ultimate claims into two components: actual reported (or paid) claims and expected unreported (or unpaid) claims. As experience matures, more weight is given to the actual claims and the expected claims become gradually less important.

In the 1993 paper “Loss Development Using Credibility,”14 Eric Brosius described the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method as a credibility weighting between the development method and the expected claims method. In the development method, full credibility (i.e., Z = 1) is given to actual claim experience; and in the expected claims method, no credibility (i.e., Z = 0) is given to actual claims. In the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, credibility is equal to the percentage of claims developed at a particular stage of maturity, which is a function of the cumulative claim development factor (i.e., Z = 1.00 / cumulative development factor). Therefore, more weight is given to the expected claims method in less mature years, and more weight is given to the development method in more mature years of the experience period.

The key assumption of the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method is that unreported (or unpaid) claims will develop based on expected claims. In other words, the claims reported to date contain no informational value as to the amount of claims yet-to-be reported. This is different from the development method where the primary assumption is that unreported (or unpaid) claims will develop based on reported (or paid) claims to date.

The reporting and payment patterns used in the Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods are the same as those selected in the development method. However, the application of the development factors differs between the two methods. It is also important to note that the expected claims used in the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method using reported claims are the same as those used in the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method using paid claims.

14 CAS Study Note, 1993


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3.3.2 Key Assumptions of the Projection Methodologies

3.3.2.1 Development Patterns

The claim development analysis is conducted by sub-coverage based on accident half-year data at semi-annual valuations through December 31, 2013. For each sub-coverage, we typically calculate the following average age-to-age factors:

Simple average of the latest five, four and three years;

Medial average (i.e., average excluding high and low values) of the latest five, four and three years; and

Volume weighted average of the latest five, four and three years.

In selecting age-to-age factors for each age-to-age interval for each sub-coverage, we consider all of the following:

Variability in the individual age-to-age factors in both the short-term and the long-term;

Congruence of various average age-to-age factors, both short-term averages and long-term averages;

The number of recent age-to-age factors in each interval that are greater than or less than the various average values;

The influence of trends in severity and frequency of claims as well as the Reforms;

The influence of external factors in the historical claim experience (such as recent trends in referred mediations) as well as expectations for the effect of such actions in the future; and

The expected progression of the development patterns.

In our discussion of estimated ultimate claims, we document the selection of age-to-age factors for each sub-coverage.

Because of the highly leveraged nature of paid claims’ cumulative development factors, we do not use methods based on paid claim data for selecting ultimate claims for injury sub-coverages.

Nevertheless, the paid projection methods are included as a reasonableness check of the reported projection methods for the older, more mature accident years.

Large, highly leveraged claim development factors for the most recent three to five accident years lead to greater uncertainty in the projections and thus the inability to reliably use paid projection methods for selecting ultimate claims for the injury sub-coverages.

For all categories of data and sub-coverages, we rely on judgement in selecting factors for ages 144 months and beyond.


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3.3.2.2 Initial Expected Claims

The initial expected claim is a critical component of the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method. We select initial expected claim for each line of business and each accident year based on a review ultimate claims derived from the frequency/severity method. This projection method includes adjustments for trends and Reforms Impacts. Section 3.4.2 describes the approach used to determine estimates of frequency and severity trends as well as estimates of Reforms Impacts for each sub-coverage.

3.3.3 Ultimate Claims by Sub-Coverage

The exhibits to this Independent Actuarial Analysis summarize key actuarial assumptions and selections, by sub-coverage and accident half-year. For each segment, we present:

The summary of ultimate claim estimates on Page 1;

The selected frequency and severity assumptions on Page 2;

The selected reported development factors on Page 3;

The selected paid development factors on Page 4; and

The selected count development factors on Page 5.

We do not repeat all of these details in the text description that follows. Instead, for each sub-coverage, we summarize at a high level the following:

Methodology for selecting ultimate claims;

Special considerations in the selection of age-to-age factors; and

Other special considerations.

3.3.3.1 Third Party Liability – Bodily injury

For TPL-BI, shown in Exhibit A, Segment I, Page 3, we generally select the reported claim development factors based on the average of the latest six accident half-years (simple, medial or volume weighted). The intent of selecting such shorter term averages is to be more responsive to the most recent experience, post-Reforms, and to minimize the influence of some unusually large age-to-age factors in the experience period.

We judgmentally select a tail factor of 1.002 to reflect the magnitude of the reported claims still unpaid after 144 months.

For the frequency-severity model, presented in Exhibit A, Segment I, Page 6, we select a severity trend factor of -1.2% per annum and Reforms Impacts factor of 0%. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment I, Page 2, the selected 2013-06 and 2013-12 ultimate severity of $138,494 and $149,111 are based on the average of five corresponding accident half-years from 2008 through 2012. The volatility of the frequency is smoothed using the long-term relationship between TPL-BI frequency and TPL-DC frequency. The resulting selected TPL-BI frequency varies between 0.22% and 0.24% in the latest 6 accident half-years.

As shown in Exhibit A, Segment I, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reported method were selected for 2011-06 onward. The selected ultimate claims for


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prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $3.6 billion.

Figure 1: TPL-BI - Estimates of Ultimate Claims ($’000) for AY 2004 to 2013

In Figure 1, the blue line represents the estimates of ultimate claims resulting from our selected methods for TPL-BI by accident half-year. The red line corresponds to the ultimate claim estimates resulting from GISA selected claim development factors. A comparison of these two lines indicates that our estimates of ultimate claims are within reasonable range of GISA’s estimates for TPL-BI. Furthermore, the area shaded in green illustrates the underlying variability of the ultimate claim estimates as delimited by the minimum and maximum values of all the actuarial projection methodologies used to estimate the TPL-BI ultimate claims in Exhibit A, Segment I, Page 1. As the gap between the lower and upper bounds widens, the variability, and therefore the uncertainty associated with a particular selection of ultimate claim amount, increases. As such, it can be observed from Figure 1: TPL-BI - Estimates of Ultimate Claims ($’000) for AY 2004 to 2013 that accident half-years 2009-12 and onward continue to show important levels of uncertainty.

3.3.3.2 Third Party Liability – Property Damage

For TPL-PD, shown in Exhibit A, Segment II, Page 3, we generally select the same reported claim development factors as GISA, with the exception of 36-42 and 42-48 where we smoothed the development factors.

For the frequency-severity model, presented in Exhibit A, Segment II, Page 6 we select the severity trend factor of 2.8% per annum. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment II, Page 2, the selected 2013-06 and 2013-12 ultimate severity of $4,840 and $5,092 are based on the average of five corresponding accident half-years from 2008 through 2012. The resulting selected TPL-PD frequency varies between 0.14% and 0.16% in the last 16 accident half-years.


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As shown in Exhibit A, Segment II, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reported method were selected for 2013-06 and 2013-12. The selected ultimate claims for prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $20.3 million.

3.3.3.3 Third Party Liability – Direct Compensation

TPL-DC claims tend to have a very short settlement period. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment III, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from Reported Development method were selected for all accident half-years. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $14.9 million, which approximately corresponds to the claim volume being reported in less than one week.

3.3.3.4 Accident Benefits – Disability Income

For AB-DI, shown in Exhibit A, Segment IV, Page 3, we select the reported claim development factors based on the simple average of the latest four accident half-years from development periods 6-12 to 48-54 inclusively. The medial of the latest eight accident half-years is generally selected for the later periods with a few smoothing points. The intent of such shorter term average is to be more responsive to the most recent experience, post-Reforms, and minimize the influence of some unusually large age-to-age factors in the experience period.

We judgmentally select the tail factor of 1.021 to reflect the nature of the claims, the magnitude of the reported claims still unpaid after 144 months and the scale of development in the periods preceding 144 months.

For the frequency-severity model, presented in Exhibit A, Segment IV, Page 6, we select a pre-Reforms severity trend factor of 7.6% per annum, post-Reforms severity trend factor of -0.2% and a Reforms Impact factor of -27.4%. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment IV, Page 2, the selected 2013-12 ultimate severity of $27,717 is based on the medial average of ten accident half-years from 2008 through 2012. The volatility of the frequency is smoothed using long-term relationship between AB-DI frequency and TPL-DC frequency. The resulting selected AB-DI frequency varies between 0.21% and 0.23% in the latest 6 accident half-years.

As shown in Exhibit A, Segment IV, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reported method were selected for 2011-06 and onward. The selected ultimate claims for prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $0.6 billion.


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Figure 2: AB-DI - Estimates of Ultimate Claims ($’000) for AY 2004 to 2013

In Figure 2, the blue line represents the estimates of ultimate claims resulting from our selected methods for AB-DI by accident half-year. The red line corresponds to the ultimate claim estimates resulting from GISA selected claim development factors. A comparison of these two lines indicates that our estimates of ultimate claims are within reasonable range of GISA’s estimates for AB-DI. Furthermore, the area shaded in green illustrates the underlying variability of the ultimate claim estimates as delimited by the minimum and maximum values of all the actuarial projection methodologies used to estimate the AB-DI ultimate claims in Exhibit A, Segment IV, Page 1. As the gap between the lower and upper bounds widens, the variability, and therefore the uncertainty associated with a particular selection of ultimate claim amount, increases. As such, it can be observed from Figure 2 that accident half-years 2011-06 and onward continue to show important levels of uncertainty.

3.3.3.5 Accident Benefits – Death Benefits

AB-DB claims tend to have a relatively quick reporting and predictable development. The severity volatility is narrow, leading to reasonably predictive average reported claim on an all-industry basis. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment V, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from Reported Development method were selected for all accident half-years. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to -$0.5 million.

3.3.3.6 Accident Benefits – Funeral

AB-F claims tend to have a relatively quick reporting and predictable development. The severity volatility is narrow, leading to reasonably predictive average reported claim on an all-industry basis.. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment VI, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from Reported Development method were selected for all accident half-years. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to -$0.1 million.


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3.3.3.7 Accident Benefits – Medical & Rehabilitation

For AB-MR, shown in Exhibit A, Segment VII, Page 3, we select the reported claim development factors based on the simple average of the latest three accident half-years from development periods 6-12 to 36-42 inclusively. The volume-weighted average of the latest six accident half-years is generally selected for the later periods with a few smoothing points. The intent of such short term average is to be more responsive to the most recent experience, post-Reforms, and minimize the influence of some unusually large age-to-age factors in the experience period.

We judgmentally select the tail factor of 1.012 to reflect the nature of the claims, the magnitude of the reported claims still unpaid after 144 months and the scale of development in the periods preceding 144 months.

For the frequency-severity model, presented in Exhibit A, Segment VII, Page 6, we select a severity pre-Reforms trend factor of 17.0% per annum, a severity post-Reforms trend factor of 0.7% and Reforms Impacts factor of -48.1%. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment VII, Page 2, the selected 2013-12 ultimate severity of $31,009 is based on the medial average of ten accident half-years from 2008 through 2012. The volatility of the frequency is smoothed using long-term relationship between AB-MR frequency and TPL-DC frequency. The resulting selected AB-MR frequency varies between 0.70% and 0.76% in the latest 6 accident half-years.

As shown in Exhibit A, Segment VII, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reported method were selected for 2011-06 and onward. The selected ultimate claims for prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $1.9 billion.

Figure 3: AB-MR - Estimates of Ultimate Claims ($’000) for AY 2004 to 2013

In Figure 3, the blue line represents the estimates of ultimate claims resulting from our selected methods for AB-MR by accident half-year. The red line corresponds to the ultimate claim estimates resulting from GISA selected claim development factors. A comparison of these two lines indicates


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that our estimates of ultimate claims are within reasonable range of GISA’s estimates for AB-MR. Furthermore, the area shaded in green illustrates the underlying variability of the ultimate claim estimates as delimited by the minimum and maximum values of all the actuarial projection methodologies used to estimate the AB-MR ultimate claims in Exhibit A, Segment VII, Page 1. As the gap between the lower and upper bounds widens, the variability, and therefore the uncertainty associated with a particular selection of ultimate claim amount, increases. As such, it can be observed from Figure 3 that accident half-years 2011-06 and onward continue to show important levels of uncertainty.

3.3.3.8 Accident Benefits – Supplementary

For AB-SUP, shown in Exhibit A, Segment VIII, Page 3, we select the same reported claim development factors as GISA.

For the frequency-severity model, presented in Exhibit A, Segment VIII, Page 6, we select a severity trend factor of 0% per annum. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment VIII, Page 2, the selected 2013-12 ultimate severity of $42,944 is based on the medial average of ten accident half-years from 2008 through 2012. The AB-SUP frequency is extremely low and we judgmentally select a long-term average of three claim counts per accident half-year.

As shown in Exhibit A, Segment VIII, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reported method were selected for 2009-06 and onward. The selected ultimate claims for prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $0.5 million.

3.3.3.9 Collision Including the All Perils Component

For collision, shown in Exhibit A, Segment IX, Page 3, we select the same reported claim development factors as GISA. Collision claims tend to have a relatively quick reporting and predictable development. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment IX, Page 1, the selected ultimate claims for prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method for all accident half-years. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to -$4.1 million.

3.3.3.10 Comprehensive Including the All Perils Component

Comprehensive claims tend to have a relatively quick reporting and predictable development. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment X, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reported method were selected for accident year 2013. The selected ultimate claims for prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $14.8 million, which corresponds to the claim volume being reported in approximately 2 weeks.

3.3.3.11 Specified Perils

Specified perils claims experience a low claim volume. We select the same reported claim development factors as GISA. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment XI, Page 1, the ultimate claims


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resulting from Reported Development method were selected for all accident half-years. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $10 thousand.

3.3.3.12 Accident Benefits – Uninsured Automobile

For AB-UA, shown in Exhibit A, Segment XII, Page 3, we select the same reported claim development factors as GISA.

For the frequency-severity model, presented in Exhibit A, Segment XII, Page 6, we select a severity trend factor of 12.0% per annum. The selected 2013-12 ultimate severity of $81,135 is based on the medial of eight accident half-years from 2008 through 2012. The AB-UA frequency varies between 0.02% and 0.03% since 2008.

As shown in Exhibit A, Segment XII, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reported method were selected for 2011-06 and onward. The selected ultimate claims for prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $228.0 million.

3.3.3.13 Underinsured Motorist

For UM, shown in Exhibit A, Segment XIII, Page 3, we generally select the reported claim development factors based on the volume-weighted average of the latest six accident half-years with some smoothing after 60 months of development. The intent of such short term average is is to be more responsive to the most recent experience, post-Reforms, and minimize the influence of some unusually large age-to-age factors in the experience period.

We judgmentally select the tail factor of 1.004 to reflect the magnitude of the reported claims still unpaid after 144 months.

For the frequency-severity model, presented in Exhibit A, Segment XIII, Page 6, we select a severity trend factor of 14.0% per annum prior to 2007 and -7.3% afterwards. As shown in Exhibit A, Segment XIII, Page 2, the selected 2013-12 ultimate severity of $185,630 is based on the average of ten accident half-years from 2008-2012. The AB-UA frequency is steadily increasing since 2008 from 0.003% and 0.005%.

As shown in Exhibit A, Segment XIII, Page 1, the ultimate claims resulting from the Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reported method were selected for 2011-06 and onward. The selected ultimate claims for prior periods are stemming from the Reported Development method. The total selected IBNR for accident half-years 2002-06 through 2013-12 amounts to $108.9 million.


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3.4 Trends and Reforms Impacts

Section 3.4 discusses the Reforms Impacts and post-Reforms trends by sub-coverage.

3.4.1 General Description of Methodologies

Exhibit A, Pages 6 through 8 of each Segment contain our PPA claim cost trend analysis based on the overall industry experience. We conduct the trend analysis separately for each of the coverages and sub-coverages previously identified. We select different trend factors for pre- and post-Reforms periods for AB-MR, AB-DI, and AB-DB sub-coverages, and select the same trend factors for pre- and post-Reforms periods for all other coverages and sub-coverages.

For this analysis, we rely on ultimate claims and counts stemming from the reported development method to derive the severity and frequency. We do not incorporate a credibility procedure in the trend analysis. It is important to note that the purpose of the analysis is to determine an estimates of the claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts.

We follow a similar approach for the trend analysis of both severity and frequency. Although our exhibits include the claim cost, we do not select claim cost trends directly. We include additional factors such as Reforms Impacts, seasonality, and/or post-Reforms trend if these factors appear significant based on statistical tests. In the top section of Exhibit A, Page 6a, we present graphs comparing actual values to the fitted values. In the middle section of Page 6a, we present tables with the following:

Accident half-year ending (2002-06 through 2013-12);

Adjustment factor;

Adjusted value (claim cost, severity or frequency);

Fitted value (claim cost, severity or frequency);

Year variable (1 through 24);

Indicator variable 1 representing seasonality;

Indicator variable 2 representing the impact of Bill 198;

Indicator variable 3 representing the Reforms Impacts; and

Indicator variable 4 representing the accident half-year variable of post-Reforms trend.

Finally, the bottom portion of Page 6a summarizes the indicated trend rate based on the regression analysis and numerous statistical values derived from the selected regression equation. These values indicate the strength of the regression equation in fitting the historical data and projecting future trend rates. We also show our selected trend rate (highlighted by a box).

For legislation that occurs part way through an accident half-year period, we use a partial indicator variable. For the Reforms, the partial indicator variables are calculated as

ln [6m/(4+2m)] / ln [m]; where m is the estimated product change conversion factor, determined on an iterative basis.


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3.4.2 Trends and Reforms Impacts By Sub-Coverage


For TPL-BI, shown in Exhibit A, Segment I, Page 6a, we incorporate seasonality and the impact of Bill 198, starting in accident half-year 2003-12, into the regression analysis. We excluded the data points corresponding to 2009-12, 2010-06 and 2010-12, which reflect a temporary claim surge immediately preceding the implementation of the Reforms. Apart from the temporary claim surge, the Reforms do not appear to have affected the claim cost trend or the claim cost level as originally anticipated by the Financial Services Commission of Ontario (FSCO) in its Five-Year Review Reform Simplified Filing Guidelines for Proposed Revisions to Private Passenger Automobile Insurance Rates and Risk Classification Systems, Appendix E – Benchmarks, issued in March 2010 (FSCO 2010 Benchmarks). The R-squared of the regression analysis is high at 0.91 for frequency and at 0.90 for severity. It results in a claim cost trend of 5.3% per annum.

It would appear that the temporary claim surge possibly increased the 2009-12, 2010-06 and 2010-12 average claim cost by 2% above the pre-Reforms trend and quickly reversed itself after the adoption of the Reforms.

3.4.2.2 Third Party Liability – Property Damage

For TPL-PD, shown in Exhibit A, Segment II, Page 6a, we did not incorporate seasonality into the regression analysis. The R-squared of the regression analysis is fair at 0.74 for frequency, and high at 0.87 for severity. It results in a claim cost trend of 1.4% per annum.

3.4.2.3 Third Party Liability – Direct Compensation

For TPL-DC, shown in Exhibit A, Segment III, Page 6a, we incorporate seasonality into the regression analysis. We excluded the data points prior 2003-12, as they reflect an older claim environment. The R-squared of the regression analysis is low at 0.44 for frequency, which could be explained by the ultimate counts per vehicle remaining relatively flat over the historical period. For severity, the R-squared of the regression analysis is high at 0.82. It results in a claim cost trend of 0.8% per annum.


For AB-DI, shown in Exhibit A, Segment IV, Page 6a, we incorporate seasonality, the Reforms Impacts and the post-Reforms trend variable into the regression analysis for severity. We excluded the data points prior 2004-06 for both frequency and severity, as they reflect an older claim environment. The R-squared of the regression analysis for frequency is very low at 0.11, which could be explained by the ultimate counts per vehicle remaining relatively flat over the historical period apart for the temporary claim surge immediately preceding the implementation of the Reforms. The R-squared of the severity regression analysis is high at 0.95. It results in a claim cost trend of 7.6% per annum pre-Reforms, -0.2% post-Reforms, and an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -27.4%.


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It would appear that the temporary claim surge possibly increased the 2009-12, 2010-06 and 2010-12 average claim cost by 8.5% above the pre-Reforms trend and quickly reversed itself after the adoption of the Reforms.

3.4.2.5 Accident Benefits – Death Benefits

For AB-DB, shown in Exhibit A, Segment V, Page 6a, we incorporate seasonality, the impact of Bill 198 and the post-Reforms trend variable into the regression analysis for frequency. We also incorporate the impact of Bill 198 and the post-Reforms trend variable into the regression analysis for severity. The R-squared of the frequency regression analysis is high at 0.91. The R-squared of the regression analysis for severity is low at 0.54. It results in a claim cost trend of -8.4% per annum pre-Reforms, and -2.7% post-Reforms.

3.4.2.6 Accident Benefits – Funeral

For AB-F, shown in Exhibit A, Segment VI, Page 6a, we incorporate seasonality into the regression analysis. We excluded the severity data points corresponding to 2004-12 and 2005-06, as they appear to be statistical outliers. The R-squared of the frequency regression analysis is high at 0.87, while the R-squared of the severity regression analysis is low at 0.55, reflecting the low credibility stemming from the low claim volume. It results in a claim cost trend of -6.2% per annum.


For AB-MR, shown in Exhibit A, Segment VII, Page 6a, we incorporate seasonality, the impact of Bill 198, the Reforms Impacts and the post-Reforms trend variable into the regression analysis for severity. We incorporate the impact of Bill 198 into the regression analysis for frequency. We excluded the data points corresponding to 2009-12, 2010-06 and 2010-12, which reflect a temporary claim surge immediately preceding the implementation of the Reforms. The R-squared of the regression analysis is very high at 0.89 for frequency and at 0.97 for severity.

It results in a claim cost trend of 17.0% per annum pre-Reforms, 0.7% post-Reforms, and an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -48.1%.

The temporary claim surge possibly increased the 2009-12, 2010-06 and 2010-12 average claim cost by 9.8% above the pre-Reforms trend and quickly reversed itself after the adoption of the Reforms.

3.4.2.8 Accident Benefits – Supplementary

There is extremely limited data for this sub-coverage. We judgementally assume 0% trend for AB-SUP.


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3.4.2.9 Collision

For COL, shown in Exhibit A, Segment IX, Page 6a, we incorporate seasonality into the regression analysis for severity only. The R-squared of the regression analysis is high at 0.87 for frequency and at 0.93 for severity. It results in a claim cost trend of -1.4% per annum.

3.4.2.10 Comprehensive

For COM, shown in Exhibit A, Segment X, Page 6a, we incorporate seasonality into the regression analysis for severity only. We excluded the data points prior to 2005-06, as they reflect an older claim environment for frequency and severity. The R-squared of the frequency regression analysis is very low at 0.18 which could be explained by the ultimate counts per vehicle remaining relatively flat over the historical period. The R-squared of the severity regression analysis is fair at 0.71. It results in a claim cost trend of -3.2% per annum.

3.4.2.11 Specified Perils

Due to the low claim volume, we select to use the comprehensive trend for both frequency and severity.

3.5 Sensitivities

Our analysis indicates that there is a strong inter-dependency between the estimated claim cost trends (both pre- and post-Reforms) and the Reforms Impacts. Consequently estimates of claim cost trends, pre- and post-Reforms, as well as the estimates of Reforms Impacts should be extracted from the same modelling approach, with the same underlying data and assumptions, and should be read and interpreted conjointly for a given coverage and sub-coverage.

Section 3.5 examines the effect of different choices of data, modelling approach, and assumptions on the estimates of claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts. The focus of this section is on TPL-BI, AB-DI and AB-MR. It is important to recognize that the purpose of this section is not to discredit or favour a certain set of estimates, but rather to demonstrate the variability of claim cost trend and Reforms Impacts estimates.

3.5.1 Exclusion of a Major Writer from GISA Data

As mentioned in Section 3.1.5, significant change in the case reserving process of a major writer impacted the 2009-1 and subsequent diagonals and it led to its exclusion from GISA’s selection of claim development factors, FSCO’s 2014 Benchmarks15 of trends and Reforms Impacts, but not from the published data available to insurers. The published GISA data are not granular enough to allow similar exclusions. Thus reported claims, reported development factors, ultimate claim

15 FSCO, Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings, Exhibit 2 – Benchmark

Assumptions for Private Passenger Automobile Insurance Filings for Reference Purposes, October 2014. Accessed November 6, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf



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estimates, claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts, as outlined in Sections 3.3 and 0, are all derived using the all-industry data as published by GISA.

For the purpose of the 2014 Annual Report, FSCO agreed to confidentially share some portions of their review of the GISA data (excluding the experience of the major writer) regarding ultimate claim cost, frequency and severity. Detailed data are not available as part of the published GISA data to independently compare the exclusion, the selections of claim development factors or the assumptions underlying the trend fitting performed by FSCO with those presented in the 2014 Annual Report. This section compares our results based on the all-industry data published by GISA with FSCO’s results based on industry data net of the major writer exclusion.


In the following graphs, the dark blue line represents the indicated measures underlying the models set out in Section 3.4.2. The green line represents FSCO’s adjusted measures. The line in turquoise represents FSCO’s fitted line. For sensitivity testing purposes, we apply the same set of independent variables as detailed in Section 3.4.2 to FSCO’s adjusted data (the green line) and estimate a claim cost trend of 5.1% per annum. Similarly, we refit FSCO’s fitted data (the turquoise line) with the same set of independent variables and estimate a claim cost trend of 4.4%, which ties back to FSCO’s 2014 Benchmarks16.


Similar to the analysis performed for TPL-BI, for sensitivity testing purposes, we apply the same set of independent variables as detailed in Section 3.4.2 to FSCO’s adjusted data (the green line) and estimate a pre-Reforms claim cost trend of 6.7% per annum, a post-Reforms claim cost trend of -1.8%, and derive an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -22.3%. Similarly, we refit FSCO’s fitted data (the turquoise line) with the same set of independent variables and estimate a pre-Reforms claim cost trend of 4.9% per annum, a post-Reforms claim cost trend of -1.9%, and derive an estimate of

16 FSCO, Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings, Exhibit 2 – Benchmark Assumptions for Private Passenger Automobile Insurance Filings for Reference Purposes, October 2014. Accessed November 6, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf



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Reforms Impacts of -19.7%. FSCO’s 2014 Benchmarks17 state that its pre-Reforms claim cost trend is estimated at 5.1% per annum, post-Reforms claim cost trend at 4.4%, and its estimate of Reforms Impact is at -33%.We have not attempted to reproduce FSCO’s methodology as outlined the Exhibit 5 of FSCO’s Technical Notes18. Further testing would be required to bridge the observed differences.


Similar to AB-DI, we apply the same set of independent variables as detailed in Section 3.4.2 to FSCO’s adjusted data (the green line) and estimate a pre-Reforms claim cost trend of 15.7% per annum, a post-Reforms claim cost trend of 0.0% and derive an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -44.0%. Similarly, we refit FSCO’s fitted data (the turquoise line) with the same set of independent variables and estimate a pre-Reforms claim cost trend of 16.2% per annum, a post-Reforms claim cost trend of 0.1%, and derive an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -44.2%. FSCO’s 2014 Benchmarks19 state that its pre-Reforms claim cost trend is estimated between 6.7% and 8.3% per annum, post-Reforms claim cost trend 3.6% and 6.7%, and its estimate of Reforms Impacts is at -49%. We have not attempted to reproduce FSCO’s methodology as outlined the Exhibit 5 of FSCO’s Technical Notes20. Further testing would be required to bridge the observed differences.

17 FSCO, Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings, Exhibit 2 – Benchmark Assumptions for Private Passenger Automobile Insurance Filings for Reference Purposes, October 2014. Accessed November 6, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf 18 FSCO, Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings, Exhibit 5 – Analysis of Reform Cost Adjustment Factors and Loss Trends, October 2014. Accessed November 6, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf 19 FSCO, Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings, Exhibit 2 – Benchmark Assumptions for Private Passenger Automobile Insurance Filings for Reference Purposes, October 2014. Accessed November 6, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf 20 FSCO, Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings, Exhibit 5 – Analysis of Reform

Cost Adjustment Factors and Loss Trends, October 2014. Accessed November 6, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf






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3.5.2 Length of Historical Periods

The number of accident half-years included in the historical periods underlying the selected trend

model is a critical choice that has significant impact on the resulting claim cost trends and Reforms

Impacts estimates. In selecting the length of the historical period, actuaries seek to achieve a fine

balance between reactivity and over-fitting. This section compares claim cost trends and Reforms

Impacts estimates using the same data as in Section 3.4.2, but using shorter historical periods.


The first row of the following table displays estimates of the claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts based on the original historical periods included in Section 3.4.2. The second row shows an alternate scenario, which relies on a shorter historical period of 14 accident half-years, excluding the claim surge that preceded the implementation of the Reforms. As can be observed in the table below, the alternate scenario leads to indications that are significantly different than those resulting from the model presented in Section 3.4.2. While the alternate scenario indicates a counter-intuitive pre-Reforms trend estimate of -1.1%, its estimate of Reforms Impacts is at 10.2%. It hints toward the potential for claim transfer from Accident Benefits, which FSCO 2010 Benchmarks originally estimated in its Reforms Impacts of 26%.

Historical Periods Included Trends

Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels

Original model as set in Section 3.4.2 5.3% 5.3% 0%

Latest 14 accident half-years, excl. 2009-12, 2010-06 & 2010-12

-1.1% 8.0% 10.2%


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Similar to TPL-BI, the first row of the following table displays estimates of the AB-DI trends and Reforms Impacts based on the original historical periods included in Section 3.4.2. The second row shows an alternate scenario, which relies on a shorter period of 14 accident half-years. As can be observed in the table below, the alternate scenario indicates trend and Reforms Impacts estimates that are within a reasonable range from those estimated using the original model presented in Section 3.4.2 with the claim cost trend at 6.5% per annum pre-Reforms, -0.2% post-Reforms, and an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -25.9%.


Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels

Original model as set in Section 3.4.2 7.6% -0.2% -27.4%

Latest 14 accident half-years 6.5% -0.2% -25.9%


Similar to TPL-BI, the first row of the following table displays estimates of the AB-MR trends and Reforms Impacts based on the original historical periods included in Section 3.4.2. The second row shows an alternate scenario, which relies on a shorter period of 14 accident half-years, excluding the claim surge that preceded the implementation of the Reforms. As can be observed in the table below, the alternate scenario indicates trend and Reforms Impacts estimates that are within a reasonable range from those estimated in the original model presented in Section 3.4.2 with the claim cost trend at 20.1% per annum pre-Reforms, 0.9% post-Reforms, and an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -50.6%.


Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels

Original model as set in Section 3.4.2 17.0% 0.7% -48.1%

Latest 14 accident half-years, excl. 2009-12, 2010-06 & 2010-12

20.1% 0.9% -50.6%

3.5.3 Iterative Model

The source of the ultimate frequencies, severities and claim costs included in the trend models is a

critical choice that can significantly affect the resulting claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts

estimates. The ultimate claim amounts and ultimate claim counts used in the trending models


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presented in Section 3.4.2 stem from the development method. The resulting trends and Reforms

Impacts feed into the frequency-severity method, which in turn is an input to the Bornhuetter-

Ferguson method. As described in Section 3.3.3, the results from Bornhuetter-Ferguson method

are often selected as the “new” ultimates for the most recent accident half-years.

The models presented in Section 3.4.2 can be re-used iteratively by feeding the “new” ultimates to determine a subsequent set of claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts estimates.

Section 3.5.3 compares claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts estimates from the original iteration

with the results from the 2nd iteration.


The first row of the following table displays estimates of the TPL-BI claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts based on the original iteration relying on for the models presented in Section 3.4.2. The second row shows an alternate scenario using the results of the 2nd iteration. The alternate scenario indicates claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts estimates that are within a reasonable range from those estimated in the original model presented in Section 3.4.2 with the claim cost trend at 5.6% per annum.


Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels

Original model as set in Section 3.4.2 5.3% 5.3% 0%

2nd Iteration 5.6% 5.6% 0%


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Similar to TPL-BI, the first row of the following table displays the estimates of the AB-DI claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts based on the original iteration relying on for the models presented in Section 3.4.2. The second row shows an alternate scenario using the results of the 2nd iteration. The alternate scenario indicates claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts estimates that are within a reasonable range from those estimated in the original model presented in Section 3.4.2 with the claim cost trend at 7.6% per annum pre-Reforms, and an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -25.1%. Based on a comparison between the two models presented in the table, the -2.9% post-Reforms trend estimate might appear to be optimistic.


Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels

Original model as set in Section 3.4.2 7.6% -0.2% -27.4%

2nd Iteration 7.6% -2.9% -25.1%


Similar to TPL-BI, the first row of the following table displays the estimates of the AB-MR claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts based on the original iteration relying on for the models presented in Section 3.4.2. The second row shows an alternate scenario using the results of the 2nd iteration. The alternate scenario indicates claim cost trends and Reforms Impacts estimates that are within a reasonable range from those estimated in the original model presented in Section 3.4.2 with the claim cost trend at 17.0% per annum pre-Reforms, 0.0% post-Reforms and an estimate of Reforms Impacts of -47.3%.


Pre-2010 Reforms



Cost Levels

Original model as set in Section 3.4.2 17.0% 0.7% -48.1%

2nd Iteration 17.0% 0.0% -47.3%


kpmg

4 EXHIBITS The following is an index to all Segments in Exhibit A:

Segment I Third Party Liability – Bodily injury (TPL-BI)

Segment II Third Party Liability – Property Damage (TPL-PD)

Segment III Third Party Liability – Direct Compensation (TPL-DC)

Segment IV Accident Benefits – Disability Income (AB-DI)

Segment V Accident Benefits – Death Benefits (AB-DB)

Segment VI Accident Benefits – Funeral (AB-F)

Segment VII Accident Benefits – Medical & Rehabilitation (AB-MR)

Segment VIII Accident Benefits – Supplementary (AB-SUP)

Segment IX Collision (COL)

Segment X Comprehensive (COM)

Segment XI Specified Perils (SP)

Segment XII Accident Benefits – Uninsured Automobile (AB-UA)

Segment XIII Underinsured Motorist (UM)

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment I

Policy Liabilities as of December 31, 2013 Page 1

TPL - Bodily Injury

Selection of Ultimate Claims based on KPMG's Selections ($000)

NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA

Ultimate Projection Method - Claims Selected Indicated Selected Testing of BF Method

Accident Development Bornhuetter-Ferguson Frequency- Ultimate at IBNR at Ultimate at Expected at 12/31/2013

Year Reported Paid Reported Paid Severity 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Difference

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 579,590 579,590 579,627 579,873 598,107 579,590 1,157 579,012 578

12-02 734,909 736,390 734,680 735,001 658,430 734,909 2,199 734,176 733

06-03 637,440 637,801 637,330 637,178 609,854 637,440 2,541 636,804 636

12-03 646,983 648,541 646,553 646,169 560,517 646,983 3,221 646,338 646

06-04 556,122 555,683 556,639 558,487 642,739 556,122 3,319 555,567 555

12-04 647,087 646,175 647,219 646,967 666,036 647,087 4,501 646,442 646

06-05 570,108 575,491 571,117 580,931 683,181 570,108 5,089 569,539 569

12-05 696,666 704,140 696,961 705,716 729,646 696,666 6,219 695,281 1,386

06-06 617,378 615,530 617,399 615,828 619,267 617,378 6,724 616,150 1,228

12-06 788,577 785,169 787,970 781,081 744,639 788,577 10,901 787,008 1,569

06-07 708,504 709,069 708,407 708,187 702,394 708,504 11,172 707,094 1,409

12-07 828,119 835,288 826,982 823,973 770,214 828,119 16,261 826,472 1,647

06-08 699,708 694,796 700,281 700,631 719,994 699,708 19,751 698,317 1,392

12-08 846,388 857,410 850,300 886,249 953,450 846,388 30,927 844,002 2,386

06-09 811,453 810,643 813,785 827,516 854,214 811,453 44,260 807,854 3,599

12-09 1,062,950 1,086,231 1,077,828 1,169,133 1,257,505 1,062,950 81,284 1,058,236 4,714

06-10 980,230 987,714 997,169 1,076,694 1,138,638 980,230 104,818 975,209 5,021

12-10 1,059,171 1,115,054 1,104,935 1,289,014 1,364,671 1,059,171 158,665 1,051,790 7,381

06-11 852,758 912,746 903,280 1,056,153 1,094,253 903,280 228,924 843,620 59,660

12-11 1,033,865 1,169,653 1,083,119 1,197,121 1,201,179 1,083,119 353,599 1,022,786 60,332

06-12 886,676 879,636 945,341 1,015,826 1,025,908 945,341 432,265 873,769 71,572

12-12 1,141,103 1,341,835 1,173,116 1,209,554 1,204,932 1,173,116 604,329 1,124,492 48,624

06-13 1,009,317 966,996 1,046,797 1,073,810 1,075,222 1,046,797 611,465 990,379 56,418

12-13 1,353,274 1,011,785 1,264,786 1,228,314 1,229,114 1,264,786 875,983 1,305,600 (40,814)

Total 19,748,378 19,863,370 19,971,621 20,749,406 21,104,103 19,887,823 3,619,573 19,595,936 291,887

GISA 19,595,936 19,595,936

Diff -0.77% 1.49%

Column Notes:

(2) = [Latest diagonal of the triangle from Page 3] x [Cumulative development factors selected in Page 3].


(4) = [(6) x [1 - 1 / Cumulative development factors from Page 3] + (Reported claims from Page 3)].

(5) = [(6) x [1 - 1 / Cumulative development factors from Page 4] + (Paid claims from Page 4)].

(6) = [Column (13) from Exhibit A - Segment I, Page 2] x [Column (16) from Exhibit A - Segment I, Page 2].

(7) Judgmentally selected.

(8) = (7) - [Reported claims from Page 3].

(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-BI_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:45 PM



TPL - Bodily Injury

Selection of Frequency and Severity Values based on KPMG's Selections ($000)

NOT PRINTED

Claim Count Analysis Severity Analysis

Initial Selected Ultimate Counts Initial Proj. Ultimate TPL-DC Ratio of 3-Years Sel. Ratio Projected Indicated

Projected Ultimate Indicated Frequency Rate Selected Coverage Rolling of Coverage Selected Ult. Severity Ult. Severity Selected

Accident Earned Based on Dev. Method Initial Frequency Using Dev. Frequency to Average to Frequency Ultimate Using Avg. Paid Using Reported Ultimate

Year Exposure Reported Closed Selected Rate Method Rate TPL-DC Covg to DC TPL-DC Rate Counts Dev. Method Dev. Method Severity

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 2,870,883 5,203 5,187 5,203 0.18% 0.18% 3.61% 5.03% 5.25% 0.19% 5,436 110,035 111,395 110,035

12-02 2,975,925 6,279 6,265 6,279 0.21% 0.21% 3.64% 5.79% 5.25% 0.19% 5,688 115,748 117,042 115,748

06-03 2,905,823 5,661 5,646 5,661 0.19% 0.19% 3.59% 5.42% 5.25% 0.19% 5,482 111,248 112,602 111,248

12-03 2,986,753 5,511 5,494 5,511 0.18% 0.18% 3.07% 6.00% 5.25% 0.16% 4,819 116,309 117,396 116,309

06-04 2,931,823 4,064 4,025 4,064 0.14% 0.14% 3.07% 4.50% 5.25% 0.16% 4,725 136,017 136,840 136,017

12-04 3,007,798 4,567 4,524 4,567 0.15% 0.15% 3.00% 5.05% 5.30% 5.25% 0.16% 4,732 140,758 141,678 140,758

06-05 2,969,534 3,874 3,837 3,874 0.13% 0.13% 2.96% 4.38% 5.19% 5.25% 0.16% 4,622 147,819 147,163 147,819

12-05 3,087,173 4,646 4,613 4,646 0.15% 0.15% 2.99% 5.01% 5.06% 5.25% 0.16% 4,849 150,464 149,939 150,464

06-06 3,043,445 4,380 4,338 4,380 0.14% 0.14% 2.77% 5.17% 5.02% 5.25% 0.15% 4,426 139,916 140,962 139,916

12-06 3,148,721 5,190 5,129 5,190 0.16% 0.16% 2.98% 5.49% 4.93% 5.25% 0.16% 4,931 151,003 151,948 151,003

06-07 3,101,564 5,073 4,982 5,073 0.16% 0.16% 3.04% 5.34% 5.07% 5.25% 0.16% 4,953 140,399 139,674 141,808

12-07 3,210,587 5,810 5,728 5,810 0.18% 0.18% 2.99% 6.00% 5.23% 5.25% 0.16% 5,045 143,957 142,533 152,679

06-08 3,181,740 5,053 4,914 5,053 0.16% 0.16% 3.08% 5.09% 5.35% 5.25% 0.16% 5,139 139,405 138,471 140,106

12-08 3,268,300 6,254 6,107 6,254 0.19% 0.19% 3.05% 6.22% 5.55% 6.34% 0.19% 6,321 138,311 135,329 150,847

06-09 3,200,124 6,393 5,950 6,393 0.20% 0.20% 3.06% 6.46% 5.77% 6.30% 0.19% 6,171 133,782 126,925 138,425

12-09 3,294,784 8,361 7,618 8,361 0.25% 0.25% 2.95% 8.64% 6.29% 8.68% 0.26% 8,438 140,081 127,135 149,037

06-10 3,229,672 8,454 7,335 8,454 0.26% 0.26% 2.97% 8.89% 6.89% 8.68% 0.26% 8,326 132,291 115,947 136,764

12-10 3,334,909 8,726 7,921 8,726 0.26% 0.26% 3.10% 8.52% 7.31% 8.68% 0.27% 8,974 138,237 121,384 152,076

06-11 3,274,223 6,699 6,173 6,699 0.20% 0.20% 2.94% 6.83% 7.59% 8.02% 0.24% 7,713 146,305 127,305 141,879

12-11 3,377,588 7,484 7,322 7,484 0.22% 0.22% 2.90% 7.58% 7.82% 8.02% 0.23% 7,863 159,354 138,141 152,755

06-12 3,336,795 6,782 6,046 6,782 0.20% 0.20% 2.73% 7.49% 7.99% 8.02% 0.22% 7,319 145,791 130,737 140,176

12-12 3,430,630 8,105 7,452 8,105 0.24% 0.24% 2.90% 8.16% 7.91% 8.02% 0.23% 7,984 179,747 140,793 150,922

06-13 3,371,347 7,795 5,808 7,795 0.23% 0.23% 2.87% 8.10% 7.78% 8.02% 0.23% 7,764 170,506 129,483 138,494

12-13 3,479,318 10,044 8,074 10,044 0.29% 0.30% 2.95% 9.99% 8.02% 8.02% 0.24% 8,243 135,040 134,737 149,111

Total 76,019,458 150,408 140,489 150,408 149,961

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.

(3) = [Latest diagonal of the triangle from Page Page 5a] x [Selected age-to-ult factors from Page Page 5a].

(4) = [Latest diagonal of the triangle from Page Page 5b] x [Selected age-to-ult factors from Page Page 5b].


(6) = [(5) / (2)].

(7) = [Latest diagonal of reported claim count triangle from PagePage 5a / (2)] + [Additive development factors judgmentally selected based on frequency analysis].

(8) Selected in Appendix A, Section III.

(9) = [(7) / (8)].

(10) = [Average of column (9)].


(12) = [(8) * (11)].

(13) = [(2) x (12)].

(14) = [Latest diagonal of the triangle from Page 4] / [Latest diagonal of the triangle from Page Page 5b] x 1000 x [Cumulative development factors judgmentally selected based on severity analysis].

(15) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment I, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-BI_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:45 PM



TPL - Bodily Injury

Incurred Claim Development - Gross of Reinsurance ($000)

Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 161,195 261,012 300,853 343,308 411,486 455,965 483,485 513,968 537,111 550,449 560,713 567,824 570,836 574,381 576,242 574,157 576,462 576,708 577,927 578,039 579,053 579,446 578,639 578,433

12-02 212,863 351,414 399,049 451,342 527,049 574,792 613,081 647,195 669,356 688,405 703,284 708,621 711,961 719,708 729,031 730,759 732,948 727,482 728,110 731,477 732,587 732,720 732,710

06-03 203,758 304,568 338,402 385,498 447,318 494,364 537,324 566,825 587,336 592,893 606,938 612,783 623,012 622,780 625,837 629,112 631,364 633,574 635,095 634,595 635,014 634,899

12-03 231,711 334,608 378,105 416,866 474,723 521,201 555,438 592,484 610,082 625,368 627,386 634,326 637,334 641,381 640,659 641,781 640,937 641,747 643,123 643,874 643,762

06-04 178,596 259,064 288,215 315,114 378,918 423,269 456,310 487,530 508,391 524,260 533,958 534,657 537,511 540,381 544,355 547,427 549,223 549,442 551,432 552,803

12-04 234,230 317,736 354,401 406,919 475,785 536,234 564,234 579,987 597,189 611,195 617,429 624,780 634,890 641,707 641,654 643,992 645,190 642,350 642,586

06-05 188,643 279,620 314,365 349,760 409,817 446,439 473,162 497,678 518,442 532,499 545,870 551,926 560,259 562,781 563,624 564,758 565,593 565,019

12-05 248,046 352,641 402,475 459,681 521,258 560,047 591,043 618,180 638,042 653,488 666,376 677,444 683,296 683,836 685,496 686,570 690,447

06-06 214,951 320,455 356,652 388,639 445,946 486,791 528,486 544,102 564,408 580,287 592,446 597,125 604,213 607,488 609,050 610,654

12-06 292,868 401,594 443,474 496,298 572,506 628,952 671,938 703,937 724,989 747,648 756,022 764,947 771,522 776,792 777,676

06-07 224,258 331,801 368,211 412,273 489,748 539,386 580,202 620,279 651,337 669,795 684,969 692,708 696,369 697,332

12-07 272,615 380,086 439,755 506,073 585,982 641,847 700,288 738,898 762,014 783,620 800,877 806,804 811,859

06-08 219,383 321,678 371,118 418,802 503,758 555,063 603,412 630,891 657,027 670,338 682,206 679,958

12-08 260,655 383,976 427,354 495,018 588,970 677,068 726,451 768,169 795,410 811,604 815,461

06-09 207,838 331,181 391,321 458,865 574,111 646,136 700,580 735,858 757,385 767,193

12-09 276,663 422,236 491,693 604,085 748,273 855,883 923,636 966,547 981,666

06-10 243,981 404,643 478,916 557,120 715,281 793,505 844,382 875,412

12-10 314,038 472,706 540,092 642,370 775,644 861,438 900,506

06-11 248,816 385,298 452,499 514,647 622,388 674,357

12-11 319,848 484,167 564,165 647,881 729,520

06-12 264,974 402,223 470,554 513,076

12-12 364,716 517,844 568,787

06-13 284,510 435,331

12-13 388,803

Age-to-Age Factors

Accident Half-Yr 6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

06-02 1.619 1.153 1.141 1.199 1.108 1.060 1.063 1.045 1.025 1.019 1.013 1.005 1.006 1.003 0.996 1.004 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.002 1.001 0.999 1.000

12-02 1.651 1.136 1.131 1.168 1.091 1.067 1.056 1.034 1.028 1.022 1.008 1.005 1.011 1.013 1.002 1.003 0.993 1.001 1.005 1.002 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.495 1.111 1.139 1.160 1.105 1.087 1.055 1.036 1.009 1.024 1.010 1.017 1.000 1.005 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.002 0.999 1.001 1.000

12-03 1.444 1.130 1.103 1.139 1.098 1.066 1.067 1.030 1.025 1.003 1.011 1.005 1.006 0.999 1.002 0.999 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.000

06-04 1.451 1.113 1.093 1.202 1.117 1.078 1.068 1.043 1.031 1.018 1.001 1.005 1.005 1.007 1.006 1.003 1.000 1.004 1.002

12-04 1.357 1.115 1.148 1.169 1.127 1.052 1.028 1.030 1.023 1.010 1.012 1.016 1.011 1.000 1.004 1.002 0.996 1.000

06-05 1.482 1.124 1.113 1.172 1.089 1.060 1.052 1.042 1.027 1.025 1.011 1.015 1.005 1.001 1.002 1.001 0.999

12-05 1.422 1.141 1.142 1.134 1.074 1.055 1.046 1.032 1.024 1.020 1.017 1.009 1.001 1.002 1.002 1.006

06-06 1.491 1.113 1.090 1.147 1.092 1.086 1.030 1.037 1.028 1.021 1.008 1.012 1.005 1.003 1.003

12-06 1.371 1.104 1.119 1.154 1.099 1.068 1.048 1.030 1.031 1.011 1.012 1.009 1.007 1.001

06-07 1.480 1.110 1.120 1.188 1.101 1.076 1.069 1.050 1.028 1.023 1.011 1.005 1.001

12-07 1.394 1.157 1.151 1.158 1.095 1.091 1.055 1.031 1.028 1.022 1.007 1.006

06-08 1.466 1.154 1.128 1.203 1.102 1.087 1.046 1.041 1.020 1.018 0.997

12-08 1.473 1.113 1.158 1.190 1.150 1.073 1.057 1.035 1.020 1.005

06-09 1.593 1.182 1.173 1.251 1.125 1.084 1.050 1.029 1.013

12-09 1.526 1.165 1.229 1.239 1.144 1.079 1.046 1.016

06-10 1.659 1.184 1.163 1.284 1.109 1.064 1.037

12-10 1.505 1.143 1.189 1.207 1.111 1.045

06-11 1.549 1.174 1.137 1.209 1.083

12-11 1.514 1.165 1.148 1.126

06-12 1.518 1.170 1.090

12-12 1.420 1.098

06-13 1.530

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.496 1.139 1.138 1.185 1.106 1.071 1.051 1.035 1.024 1.017 1.009 1.009 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.003 0.999 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Latest 6 1.506 1.156 1.160 1.219 1.120 1.072 1.049 1.034 1.024 1.017 1.009 1.009 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.002 0.999 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Latest 4 1.495 1.152 1.141 1.207 1.112 1.068 1.048 1.030 1.020 1.017 1.007 1.008 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.003 0.999 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.495 1.139 1.136 1.183 1.106 1.071 1.052 1.035 1.025 1.018 1.009 1.009 1.005 1.003 1.003 1.003 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.524 1.166 1.162 1.217 1.114 1.077 1.050 1.034 1.025 1.019 1.010 1.009 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.003 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.517 1.163 1.160 1.227 1.122 1.075 1.049 1.034 1.024 1.018 1.010 1.009 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.003 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.492 1.140 1.141 1.186 1.107 1.071 1.051 1.034 1.024 1.017 1.009 1.009 1.005 1.004 1.002 1.003 0.999 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Latest 6 1.501 1.153 1.161 1.216 1.120 1.071 1.048 1.032 1.023 1.016 1.009 1.009 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.002 0.999 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Latest 4 1.491 1.149 1.143 1.204 1.113 1.067 1.047 1.029 1.020 1.016 1.007 1.008 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.003 0.999 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

Development Factor Selection

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.508 1.166 1.168 1.235 1.121 1.081 1.054 1.037 1.025 1.020 1.011 1.011 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.002 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.002

GISA 2013-12 1.476 1.151 1.161 1.215 1.121 1.071 1.048 1.033 1.024 1.017 1.008 1.009 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.002 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

KPMG 2013-12 1.501 1.156 1.161 1.219 1.121 1.075 1.050 1.034 1.024 1.019 1.009 1.009 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.002

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 3.662 2.429 2.083 1.784 1.444 1.288 1.191 1.130 1.090 1.063 1.042 1.031 1.020 1.015 1.013 1.010 1.008 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002

GISA 2013-12 3.358 2.275 1.977 1.703 1.402 1.251 1.168 1.114 1.078 1.053 1.035 1.027 1.018 1.014 1.012 1.009 1.007 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001

KPMG 2013-12 3.481 2.319 2.006 1.728 1.417 1.265 1.176 1.120 1.083 1.058 1.038 1.029 1.020 1.016 1.014 1.011 1.009 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-BI_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:45 PM



TPL - Bodily Injury

Paid Claim Development - Gross of Reinsurance ($000)

Cumulative Paid Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 3,652 13,728 28,925 57,085 89,596 139,538 194,604 249,009 302,097 355,144 402,280 443,300 475,611 501,546 523,265 535,341 545,545 550,034 557,542 559,777 561,699 566,969 569,259 570,751

12-02 3,590 15,687 41,319 68,526 124,592 178,604 252,677 319,429 385,555 447,123 506,061 551,145 588,447 627,953 657,300 672,360 684,676 697,904 703,863 710,157 717,823 719,649 723,270

06-03 4,465 17,784 35,159 63,582 98,540 150,436 202,698 270,251 328,167 380,348 425,266 473,336 509,968 540,018 560,816 580,006 594,542 602,816 611,857 618,812 621,248 623,573

12-03 3,247 13,774 34,247 59,542 103,230 151,878 221,517 283,845 351,143 404,672 461,621 509,254 541,716 570,410 591,308 604,493 612,439 616,072 623,763 629,398 631,064

06-04 2,999 9,890 18,501 40,083 64,039 110,596 155,863 214,046 264,980 328,706 378,491 419,989 457,851 482,681 500,133 513,362 523,140 527,486 533,322 537,785

12-04 3,240 11,388 30,185 53,686 88,547 136,347 201,441 262,106 332,039 388,367 447,100 493,261 529,792 562,624 583,480 596,400 608,232 616,004 620,410

06-05 3,116 10,718 26,738 50,883 76,736 117,994 163,515 225,678 281,421 341,317 401,952 439,805 472,209 497,423 515,217 527,925 538,676 546,423

12-05 3,246 12,992 36,383 62,365 108,539 151,722 216,744 284,455 363,151 434,821 502,681 550,108 594,299 617,095 638,497 648,043 660,614

06-06 2,811 10,385 21,256 42,467 69,846 119,752 175,056 238,893 303,684 366,458 422,396 468,555 504,242 531,043 549,878 566,496

12-06 3,778 13,524 32,208 61,604 108,336 161,601 239,899 327,327 411,877 489,473 560,102 607,730 653,289 680,327 705,967

06-07 3,227 13,023 21,991 53,137 83,956 135,300 195,643 276,743 343,098 428,975 492,477 548,167 586,032 615,384

12-07 3,996 11,234 31,110 58,416 112,838 179,418 257,428 342,657 445,594 520,239 595,566 647,906 690,050

06-08 2,920 9,484 20,054 44,722 81,510 141,606 209,881 292,753 363,693 432,432 486,175 533,893

12-08 3,439 12,873 34,342 65,261 123,714 190,268 282,307 369,341 470,014 538,955 599,952

06-09 3,507 11,375 23,874 58,626 98,269 167,973 238,933 337,237 414,637 496,728

12-09 4,352 11,715 38,232 73,410 146,775 238,476 344,948 448,038 560,461

06-10 4,462 13,214 29,822 66,222 121,921 206,577 293,706 405,386

12-10 5,107 14,463 41,699 76,293 149,501 228,847 337,966

06-11 3,899 11,112 29,986 65,352 110,082 191,596

12-11 4,291 17,289 38,271 73,458 150,529

06-12 2,301 10,787 27,075 60,630

12-12 3,983 12,533 45,295

06-13 2,648 12,617

12-13 3,724

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 3.759 2.107 1.974 1.570 1.557 1.395 1.280 1.213 1.176 1.133 1.102 1.073 1.055 1.043 1.023 1.019 1.008 1.014 1.004 1.003 1.009 1.004 1.003

12-02 4.369 2.634 1.658 1.818 1.434 1.415 1.264 1.207 1.160 1.132 1.089 1.068 1.067 1.047 1.023 1.018 1.019 1.009 1.009 1.011 1.003 1.005

06-03 3.983 1.977 1.808 1.550 1.527 1.347 1.333 1.214 1.159 1.118 1.113 1.077 1.059 1.039 1.034 1.025 1.014 1.015 1.011 1.004 1.004

12-03 4.242 2.486 1.739 1.734 1.471 1.459 1.281 1.237 1.152 1.141 1.103 1.064 1.053 1.037 1.022 1.013 1.006 1.012 1.009 1.003

06-04 3.298 1.871 2.166 1.598 1.727 1.409 1.373 1.238 1.240 1.151 1.110 1.090 1.054 1.036 1.026 1.019 1.008 1.011 1.008

12-04 3.515 2.651 1.779 1.649 1.540 1.477 1.301 1.267 1.170 1.151 1.103 1.074 1.062 1.037 1.022 1.020 1.013 1.007

06-05 3.440 2.495 1.903 1.508 1.538 1.386 1.380 1.247 1.213 1.178 1.094 1.074 1.053 1.036 1.025 1.020 1.014

12-05 4.003 2.801 1.714 1.740 1.398 1.429 1.312 1.277 1.197 1.156 1.094 1.080 1.038 1.035 1.015 1.019

06-06 3.694 2.047 1.998 1.645 1.715 1.462 1.365 1.271 1.207 1.153 1.109 1.076 1.053 1.035 1.030

12-06 3.580 2.381 1.913 1.759 1.492 1.485 1.364 1.258 1.188 1.144 1.085 1.075 1.041 1.038

06-07 4.036 1.689 2.416 1.580 1.612 1.446 1.415 1.240 1.250 1.148 1.113 1.069 1.050

12-07 2.811 2.769 1.878 1.932 1.590 1.435 1.331 1.300 1.168 1.145 1.088 1.065

06-08 3.248 2.114 2.230 1.823 1.737 1.482 1.395 1.242 1.189 1.124 1.098

12-08 3.743 2.668 1.900 1.896 1.538 1.484 1.308 1.273 1.147 1.113

06-09 3.244 2.099 2.456 1.676 1.709 1.422 1.411 1.230 1.198

12-09 2.692 3.264 1.920 1.999 1.625 1.446 1.299 1.251

06-10 2.961 2.257 2.221 1.841 1.694 1.422 1.380

12-10 2.832 2.883 1.830 1.960 1.531 1.477

06-11 2.850 2.699 2.179 1.684 1.740

12-11 4.029 2.214 1.919 2.049

06-12 4.688 2.510 2.239

12-12 3.147 3.614

06-13 4.765

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 3.606 2.465 1.992 1.750 1.588 1.438 1.341 1.248 1.188 1.142 1.100 1.074 1.053 1.038 1.025 1.019 1.012 1.011 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.003

Latest 6 3.718 2.696 2.051 1.868 1.640 1.456 1.354 1.256 1.190 1.138 1.098 1.073 1.050 1.036 1.023 1.019 1.012 1.011 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.003

Latest 4 4.157 2.759 2.042 1.884 1.648 1.442 1.350 1.249 1.175 1.133 1.096 1.071 1.046 1.036 1.023 1.020 1.010 1.011 1.009 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.003

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 3.594 2.446 1.986 1.747 1.590 1.440 1.341 1.247 1.186 1.141 1.100 1.073 1.053 1.038 1.025 1.019 1.012 1.011 1.009 1.004 1.004 1.005 1.003

Latest 8x1 3.418 2.638 2.063 1.867 1.649 1.451 1.365 1.256 1.191 1.145 1.098 1.075 1.051 1.036 1.025 1.019 1.012 1.011 1.009 1.004 1.004 1.005 1.003

Latest 6x1 3.679 2.587 2.060 1.871 1.642 1.457 1.354 1.251 1.186 1.140 1.097 1.073 1.050 1.036 1.024 1.020 1.012 1.011 1.009 1.004 1.004 1.005 1.003

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 3.544 2.461 1.957 1.767 1.580 1.440 1.338 1.249 1.185 1.141 1.099 1.073 1.053 1.038 1.024 1.019 1.012 1.011 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.003

Latest 6 3.545 2.672 2.025 1.880 1.631 1.455 1.349 1.257 1.187 1.137 1.097 1.073 1.049 1.036 1.023 1.019 1.013 1.011 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.003

Latest 4 4.025 2.719 2.012 1.891 1.638 1.444 1.345 1.250 1.174 1.132 1.095 1.071 1.045 1.036 1.023 1.020 1.010 1.011 1.009 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.003


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 3.545 2.587 2.042 1.867 1.631 1.444 1.354 1.257 1.188 1.142 1.098 1.075 1.051 1.036 1.024 1.019 1.012 1.011 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.003 1.015

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 271.701 76.644 29.625 14.508 7.770 4.764 3.299 2.436 1.938 1.632 1.429 1.301 1.210 1.152 1.112 1.087 1.066 1.053 1.042 1.033 1.028 1.023 1.018 1.015

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-BI_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:45 PM


Policy Liabilities as of December 31, 2013 Page 5a

TPL - Bodily Injury

Reported Claim Count Development

Reported Claim CountsAccident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 8,643 7,477 6,270 5,619 5,995 6,003 5,817 5,607 5,501 5,376 5,307 5,254 5,289 5,248 5,248 5,243 5,230 5,224 5,215 5,212 5,208 5,212 5,206 5,203

12-02 9,975 8,567 7,154 6,751 7,278 7,235 6,930 6,799 6,638 6,530 6,436 6,412 6,358 6,356 6,343 6,322 6,322 6,303 6,296 6,288 6,283 6,281 6,279

06-03 9,709 7,932 6,691 6,281 6,669 6,457 6,294 6,087 5,943 5,830 5,791 5,745 5,763 5,733 5,716 5,714 5,689 5,680 5,675 5,669 5,662 5,661

12-03 9,594 7,729 6,499 6,286 6,502 6,379 6,161 6,009 5,807 5,701 5,697 5,667 5,626 5,599 5,592 5,560 5,544 5,532 5,527 5,519 5,511

06-04 7,940 6,232 5,032 4,578 4,914 4,742 4,580 4,411 4,305 4,258 4,236 4,172 4,155 4,145 4,105 4,098 4,077 4,072 4,065 4,064

12-04 9,365 6,819 5,494 5,137 5,279 5,177 4,913 4,815 4,732 4,767 4,732 4,693 4,687 4,646 4,618 4,591 4,595 4,578 4,571

06-05 8,013 5,789 4,715 4,306 4,494 4,354 4,167 4,146 4,119 4,062 4,009 3,986 3,956 3,924 3,906 3,897 3,889 3,881

12-05 9,115 6,548 5,327 5,095 5,370 5,108 5,104 5,061 4,955 4,932 4,898 4,814 4,752 4,712 4,695 4,677 4,663

06-06 8,480 6,115 5,116 4,751 4,827 4,859 4,801 4,729 4,696 4,627 4,555 4,509 4,470 4,453 4,434 4,406

12-06 9,284 6,896 5,892 5,434 5,931 5,789 5,690 5,638 5,573 5,473 5,396 5,334 5,311 5,259 5,234

06-07 8,689 6,480 5,185 5,076 5,706 5,664 5,644 5,568 5,440 5,359 5,277 5,219 5,169 5,133

12-07 9,412 6,681 5,775 5,819 6,445 6,586 6,431 6,237 6,129 6,054 5,994 5,949 5,910

06-08 7,557 5,688 5,046 5,010 5,798 5,761 5,602 5,464 5,382 5,291 5,217 5,167

12-08 8,657 6,939 6,092 6,365 7,142 7,089 6,951 6,862 6,716 6,595 6,448

06-09 7,613 6,136 5,774 5,900 7,130 7,224 7,092 6,941 6,808 6,661

12-09 9,017 7,841 7,096 7,669 9,235 9,480 9,279 9,088 8,842

06-10 8,883 7,336 6,997 7,670 9,521 9,606 9,371 9,113

12-10 9,543 8,299 7,861 8,394 9,776 9,818 9,591

06-11 8,548 6,928 6,616 6,744 7,744 7,525

12-11 9,942 7,863 7,395 7,659 8,377

06-12 9,260 6,996 6,390 6,444

12-12 10,024 7,940 7,320

06-13 9,501 7,517

12-13 11,888

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 0.865 0.839 0.896 1.067 1.001 0.969 0.964 0.981 0.977 0.987 0.990 1.007 0.992 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.001 0.999 0.999

12-02 0.859 0.835 0.944 1.078 0.994 0.958 0.981 0.976 0.984 0.986 0.996 0.992 1.000 0.998 0.997 1.000 0.997 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.817 0.844 0.939 1.062 0.968 0.975 0.967 0.976 0.981 0.993 0.992 1.003 0.995 0.997 1.000 0.996 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000

12-03 0.806 0.841 0.967 1.034 0.981 0.966 0.975 0.966 0.982 0.999 0.995 0.993 0.995 0.999 0.994 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999

06-04 0.785 0.807 0.910 1.073 0.965 0.966 0.963 0.976 0.989 0.995 0.985 0.996 0.998 0.990 0.998 0.995 0.999 0.998 1.000

12-04 0.728 0.806 0.935 1.028 0.981 0.949 0.980 0.983 1.007 0.993 0.992 0.999 0.991 0.994 0.994 1.001 0.996 0.998

06-05 0.722 0.814 0.913 1.044 0.969 0.957 0.995 0.993 0.986 0.987 0.994 0.992 0.992 0.995 0.998 0.998 0.998

12-05 0.718 0.814 0.956 1.054 0.951 0.999 0.992 0.979 0.995 0.993 0.983 0.987 0.992 0.996 0.996 0.997

06-06 0.721 0.837 0.929 1.016 1.007 0.988 0.985 0.993 0.985 0.984 0.990 0.991 0.996 0.996 0.994

12-06 0.743 0.854 0.922 1.091 0.976 0.983 0.991 0.988 0.982 0.986 0.989 0.996 0.990 0.995

06-07 0.746 0.800 0.979 1.124 0.993 0.996 0.987 0.977 0.985 0.985 0.989 0.990 0.993

12-07 0.710 0.864 1.008 1.108 1.022 0.976 0.970 0.983 0.988 0.990 0.992 0.993

06-08 0.753 0.887 0.993 1.157 0.994 0.972 0.975 0.985 0.983 0.986 0.990

12-08 0.802 0.878 1.045 1.122 0.993 0.981 0.987 0.979 0.982 0.978

06-09 0.806 0.941 1.022 1.208 1.013 0.982 0.979 0.981 0.978

12-09 0.870 0.905 1.081 1.204 1.027 0.979 0.979 0.973

06-10 0.826 0.954 1.096 1.241 1.009 0.976 0.972

12-10 0.870 0.947 1.068 1.165 1.004 0.977

06-11 0.810 0.955 1.019 1.148 0.972

12-11 0.791 0.940 1.036 1.094

06-12 0.756 0.913 1.008

12-12 0.792 0.922

06-13 0.791

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 0.786 0.873 0.984 1.106 0.990 0.975 0.979 0.981 0.986 0.989 0.991 0.995 0.994 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999

Latest 6 0.802 0.939 1.051 1.177 1.003 0.978 0.977 0.980 0.983 0.985 0.989 0.992 0.992 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999

Latest 4 0.782 0.933 1.033 1.162 1.003 0.978 0.979 0.979 0.983 0.985 0.990 0.993 0.993 0.996 0.995 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 0.786 0.872 0.983 1.103 0.991 0.975 0.979 0.981 0.985 0.989 0.991 0.995 0.994 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999

Latest 8x1 0.813 0.936 1.045 1.167 1.006 0.978 0.980 0.982 0.984 0.986 0.990 0.993 0.993 0.996 0.996 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999

Latest 6x1 0.796 0.941 1.051 1.181 1.005 0.978 0.976 0.980 0.983 0.985 0.989 0.992 0.992 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 0.787 0.874 0.989 1.113 0.993 0.975 0.979 0.980 0.985 0.989 0.991 0.995 0.994 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999

Latest 6 0.802 0.939 1.053 1.176 1.004 0.978 0.977 0.979 0.983 0.985 0.989 0.992 0.992 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999

Latest 4 0.783 0.933 1.035 1.163 1.004 0.978 0.979 0.979 0.983 0.984 0.990 0.993 0.993 0.996 0.995 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 0.793 0.934 1.053 1.183 1.007 0.975 0.980 0.981 0.984 0.986 0.990 0.992 0.993 0.995 0.996 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 0.815 0.937 1.052 1.178 1.003 0.978 0.975 0.980 0.982 0.984 0.988 0.992 0.992 0.994 0.995 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.815 0.937 1.052 1.178 1.004 0.978 0.981 0.981 0.985 0.990 0.992 0.995 0.995 0.997 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 0.812 1.024 1.096 1.041 0.880 0.874 0.896 0.914 0.932 0.947 0.960 0.970 0.978 0.985 0.990 0.994 0.996 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 0.818 1.004 1.072 1.019 0.865 0.862 0.881 0.904 0.922 0.939 0.954 0.966 0.974 0.982 0.988 0.993 0.996 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.845 1.037 1.107 1.052 0.893 0.890 0.910 0.928 0.946 0.960 0.970 0.978 0.983 0.988 0.992 0.994 0.996 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-BI_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:45 PM


Policy Liabilities as of December 31, 2013 Page 5b

TPL - Bodily Injury

Closed Claim Count Development

Closed Claim CountsAccident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 542 1,421 2,028 2,530 3,058 3,509 3,885 4,187 4,426 4,606 4,744 4,859 4,964 5,039 5,087 5,122 5,141 5,153 5,164 5,170 5,173 5,176 5,182 5,187

12-02 517 1,576 2,390 2,951 3,588 4,133 4,641 5,021 5,320 5,519 5,699 5,842 5,951 6,051 6,112 6,164 6,204 6,226 6,237 6,245 6,254 6,255 6,259

06-03 547 1,512 2,139 2,704 3,242 3,711 4,114 4,433 4,660 4,895 5,096 5,232 5,346 5,438 5,500 5,559 5,589 5,606 5,619 5,624 5,630 5,635

12-03 524 1,371 1,989 2,526 3,036 3,473 3,922 4,226 4,503 4,767 4,984 5,134 5,255 5,332 5,381 5,429 5,449 5,465 5,474 5,479 5,480

06-04 402 1,027 1,410 1,741 2,098 2,423 2,692 2,953 3,180 3,413 3,576 3,714 3,813 3,897 3,933 3,964 3,979 3,991 4,000 4,011

12-04 371 1,104 1,551 1,940 2,350 2,682 3,016 3,307 3,613 3,832 4,039 4,184 4,298 4,381 4,417 4,451 4,471 4,493 4,502

06-05 273 800 1,196 1,552 1,873 2,183 2,461 2,775 3,015 3,236 3,408 3,533 3,637 3,709 3,755 3,777 3,796 3,810

12-05 297 931 1,439 1,845 2,304 2,679 3,046 3,360 3,669 3,916 4,135 4,300 4,387 4,449 4,499 4,536 4,565

06-06 261 809 1,236 1,623 1,996 2,389 2,742 3,096 3,407 3,688 3,902 4,058 4,146 4,200 4,241 4,271

12-06 304 942 1,433 1,876 2,357 2,786 3,299 3,780 4,169 4,446 4,676 4,796 4,905 4,961 5,009

06-07 236 785 1,266 1,742 2,176 2,703 3,167 3,662 4,006 4,298 4,491 4,645 4,759 4,817

12-07 300 926 1,449 1,912 2,574 3,185 3,713 4,177 4,603 4,881 5,101 5,316 5,447

06-08 213 692 1,111 1,578 2,142 2,770 3,200 3,630 3,927 4,181 4,375 4,562

12-08 243 830 1,413 2,001 2,747 3,409 3,974 4,458 4,903 5,205 5,467

06-09 183 688 1,202 1,751 2,425 3,145 3,705 4,249 4,700 5,074

12-09 262 906 1,561 2,251 3,208 4,061 4,830 5,465 6,089

06-10 234 770 1,302 1,995 2,905 3,826 4,564 5,328

12-10 266 945 1,614 2,307 3,271 4,140 5,054

06-11 210 746 1,274 1,868 2,537 3,329

12-11 245 859 1,497 2,110 3,078

06-12 199 696 1,222 1,792

12-12 254 875 1,528

06-13 178 690

12-13 270

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 2.622 1.427 1.248 1.209 1.147 1.107 1.078 1.057 1.041 1.030 1.024 1.022 1.015 1.010 1.007 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

12-02 3.048 1.516 1.235 1.216 1.152 1.123 1.082 1.060 1.037 1.033 1.025 1.019 1.017 1.010 1.009 1.006 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001

06-03 2.764 1.415 1.264 1.199 1.145 1.109 1.078 1.051 1.050 1.041 1.027 1.022 1.017 1.011 1.011 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001

12-03 2.616 1.451 1.270 1.202 1.144 1.129 1.078 1.066 1.059 1.046 1.030 1.024 1.015 1.009 1.009 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000

06-04 2.555 1.373 1.235 1.205 1.155 1.111 1.097 1.077 1.073 1.048 1.039 1.027 1.022 1.009 1.008 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003

12-04 2.976 1.405 1.251 1.211 1.141 1.125 1.096 1.093 1.061 1.054 1.036 1.027 1.019 1.008 1.008 1.004 1.005 1.002

06-05 2.930 1.495 1.298 1.207 1.166 1.127 1.128 1.086 1.073 1.053 1.037 1.029 1.020 1.012 1.006 1.005 1.004

12-05 3.135 1.546 1.282 1.249 1.163 1.137 1.103 1.092 1.067 1.056 1.040 1.020 1.014 1.011 1.008 1.006

06-06 3.100 1.528 1.313 1.230 1.197 1.148 1.129 1.100 1.082 1.058 1.040 1.022 1.013 1.010 1.007

12-06 3.099 1.521 1.309 1.256 1.182 1.184 1.146 1.103 1.066 1.052 1.026 1.023 1.011 1.010

06-07 3.326 1.613 1.376 1.249 1.242 1.172 1.156 1.094 1.073 1.045 1.034 1.025 1.012

12-07 3.087 1.565 1.320 1.346 1.237 1.166 1.125 1.102 1.060 1.045 1.042 1.025

06-08 3.249 1.605 1.420 1.357 1.293 1.155 1.134 1.082 1.065 1.046 1.043

12-08 3.416 1.702 1.416 1.373 1.241 1.166 1.122 1.100 1.062 1.050

06-09 3.760 1.747 1.457 1.385 1.297 1.178 1.147 1.106 1.080

12-09 3.458 1.723 1.442 1.425 1.266 1.189 1.131 1.114

06-10 3.291 1.691 1.532 1.456 1.317 1.193 1.167

12-10 3.553 1.708 1.429 1.418 1.266 1.221

06-11 3.552 1.708 1.466 1.358 1.312

12-11 3.506 1.743 1.409 1.459

06-12 3.497 1.756 1.466

12-12 3.445 1.746

06-13 3.876

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 3.211 1.590 1.354 1.301 1.214 1.152 1.117 1.086 1.063 1.047 1.034 1.024 1.016 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

Latest 6 3.572 1.725 1.458 1.417 1.283 1.184 1.138 1.100 1.068 1.049 1.037 1.024 1.015 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

Latest 4 3.581 1.738 1.443 1.423 1.290 1.195 1.142 1.100 1.067 1.047 1.036 1.023 1.013 1.011 1.007 1.005 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 3.211 1.593 1.351 1.297 1.212 1.151 1.117 1.087 1.064 1.047 1.034 1.023 1.016 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

Latest 8x1 3.502 1.729 1.446 1.403 1.279 1.177 1.140 1.101 1.069 1.050 1.038 1.025 1.016 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

Latest 6x1 3.527 1.726 1.451 1.421 1.285 1.182 1.134 1.100 1.066 1.048 1.039 1.023 1.015 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 3.102 1.568 1.343 1.298 1.213 1.154 1.117 1.086 1.062 1.046 1.033 1.023 1.016 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

Latest 6 3.558 1.725 1.455 1.419 1.282 1.186 1.138 1.101 1.068 1.049 1.037 1.024 1.015 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

Latest 4 3.562 1.738 1.441 1.424 1.288 1.196 1.142 1.102 1.067 1.047 1.036 1.023 1.013 1.011 1.007 1.005 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 3.552 1.726 1.446 1.418 1.283 1.183 1.138 1.100 1.067 1.050 1.037 1.024 1.017 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 29.902 8.418 4.877 3.374 2.379 1.854 1.567 1.377 1.251 1.173 1.117 1.077 1.052 1.034 1.024 1.016 1.011 1.007 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-BI_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:45 PM


Review of Ontario Private Passenger Automobile Rates Page 6a

Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Bodily Injury

Projected Ultimate Losses - Diagnostics

Loss Cost Severity Frequency

Adjust Year Indicator Variable Adjust Year Indicator Variable Adjust Year Indicator Variable

Accident Half-Yr Factor Adjusted Fitted Var 1 2 3 4 Factor Adjusted Fitted Var 1 2 3 4 Factor Adjusted Fitted Var 1 2 3 4

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 220 216 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 121,310 122,295 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.18% 0.18% 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 269 253 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 127,459 128,248 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.21% 0.20% 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 238 227 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 122,061 120,840 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.19% 0.19% 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 235 267 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 127,257 126,722 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.18% 0.21% 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 209 204 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 150,524 154,241 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.13% 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 237 239 6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 155,846 161,749 6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.15% 6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 210 215 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 160,702 152,406 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.13% 0.14% 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 246 252 8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 163,733 159,824 8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.16% 8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 219 227 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 152,521 150,593 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.15% 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 271 266 10 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 164,408 157,923 10 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.16% 0.17% 10 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 248 239 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 151,546 148,801 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.16% 0.16% 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 280 281 12 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 154,648 156,044 12 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.18% 0.18% 12 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 237 253 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 148,994 147,031 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.16% 0.17% 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 279 296 14 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 145,614 154,188 14 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.19% 0.19% 14 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 273 267 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 136,444 145,282 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.20% 0.18% 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 347 312 16 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 136,670 152,353 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.25% 0.20% 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 324 281 17 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 123,599 143,553 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.26% 0.19% 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 339 330 18 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 129,395 150,541 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.26% 0.21% 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2011-06 0.0% 282 297 19 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 137,871 141,845 19 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.20% 0.20% 19 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2011-12 0.0% 332 348 20 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 149,606 148,750 20 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.22% 0.23% 20 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2012-06 0.0% 287 313 21 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 141,143 140,158 21 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.20% 0.22% 21 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2012-12 0.0% 359 367 22 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 152,000 146,980 22 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.24% 0.24% 22 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2013-06 0.0% 323 331 23 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 139,790 138,490 23 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.23% 0.23% 23 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2013-12 0.0% 420 388 24 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 145,462 145,231 24 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.29% 0.26% 24 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

(26) Indicated Trend 2.7% 14.1% (15.1%) 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend (0.6%) 5.5% 29.2% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend 3.2% 8.2% (34.5%) 0.0% 0.0%

(27) Standard Error 0.003 0.028 0.049 0.000 0.000 (27) Standard Error 0.001 0.014 0.023 0.000 0.000 (27) Standard Error 0.003 0.030 0.049 0.000 0.000

(28) t-value => observed 10.3 5.1 (3.1) n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed (4.6) 3.9 12.5 n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed 12.0 2.8 (7.1) n/a n/a

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a

(30) R-squared 0.90 (30) R-squared 0.90 (30) R-squared 0.91

(31) Degrees of freedom 18 (31) Degrees of freedom 15 (31) Degrees of freedom 15

(32) Selected alpha 5.0% (32) Selected alpha 5.0% (32) Selected alpha 5.0%

(33) F-value => observed 31.1 (33) F-value => observed 27.9 (33) F-value => observed 31.1

(34) F-value => critical n/a (34) F-value => critical n/a (34) F-value => critical n/a

(35) Selected b 5.35 (35) Selected b 11.72 (35) Selected b (6.37)

(36) Selected Trend 2.6% 14.1% (15.4%) 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend (0.6%) 5.5% 29.2% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend 3.2% 8.2% (34.5%) 0.0% 0.0% Pre-reform annual trend 5.3% 5.3% Pre-reform annual trend -1.2% -1.2% Pre-reform annual trend 6.6% 6.6%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend 5.3% 5.3% Post-reform annual trend -1.2% -1.2% Post-reform annual trend 6.6% 6.6%

See Segment I - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6

Indicated vs. Fitted Frequency

[0]!AdjName [0]!IndName [0]!FitName [0]!Selectname

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06

Indicated vs. Fitted Severity


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06

Indicated vs. Fitted Loss Cost


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-BI_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 2:41 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Bodily Injury


Earned Rates of Change

Premium Earned Indicated with LAE ($) Based on Annual Indicated

Accident Half-Yr ($000) Exposure ULAE Loss Cost Severity Frequency Loss Cost Severity Frequency

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 531,078 2,870,883 8.9% 220 121,310 0.18%

2002-12 588,655 2,975,925 8.9% 269 127,459 0.21%

2003-06 640,330 2,905,823 8.4% 238 122,061 0.19% 8.2% 0.6% 7.5%

2003-12 757,987 2,986,753 8.4% 235 127,257 0.18% (12.7%) (0.2%) (12.5%)

2004-06 819,875 2,931,823 10.0% 209 150,524 0.14% (12.3%) 23.3% (28.8%)

2004-12 889,805 3,007,798 10.0% 237 155,846 0.15% 0.8% 22.5% (17.7%)

2005-06 893,736 2,969,534 9.2% 210 160,702 0.13% 0.5% 6.8% (5.9%)

2005-12 931,498 3,087,173 9.2% 246 163,733 0.15% 4.1% 5.1% (0.9%)

2006-06 920,822 3,043,445 8.2% 219 152,521 0.14% 4.7% (5.1%) 10.3%

2006-12 967,448 3,148,721 8.2% 271 164,408 0.16% 10.0% 0.4% 9.5%

2007-06 967,911 3,101,564 8.5% 248 151,546 0.16% 12.9% (0.6%) 13.6%

2007-12 1,023,231 3,210,587 8.5% 280 154,648 0.18% 3.3% (5.9%) 9.8%

2008-06 1,028,502 3,181,740 7.6% 237 148,994 0.16% (4.5%) (1.7%) (2.9%)

2008-12 1,077,744 3,268,300 7.6% 279 145,614 0.19% (0.4%) (5.8%) 5.7%

2009-06 1,088,982 3,200,124 7.5% 273 136,444 0.20% 15.2% (8.4%) 25.8%

2009-12 1,166,001 3,294,784 7.5% 347 136,670 0.25% 24.5% (6.1%) 32.6%

2010-06 1,172,075 3,229,672 6.6% 324 123,599 0.26% 18.7% (9.4%) 31.0%

2010-12 1,243,441 3,334,909 6.6% 339 129,395 0.26% (2.4%) (5.3%) 3.1%

2011-06 1,312,215 3,274,223 8.3% 282 137,871 0.20% (12.8%) 11.5% (21.8%)

2011-12 1,445,603 3,377,588 8.3% 332 149,606 0.22% (2.1%) 15.6% (15.3%)

2012-06 1,458,916 3,336,795 8.0% 287 141,143 0.20% 1.7% 2.4% (0.7%)

2012-12 1,514,004 3,430,630 8.0% 359 152,000 0.24% 8.3% 1.6% 6.6%

2013-06 1,496,574 3,371,347 8.0% 323 139,790 0.23% 12.7% (1.0%) 13.8%

2013-12 1,577,100 3,479,318 8.0% 420 145,462 0.29% 16.9% (4.3%) 22.2%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment I - Page 8b.

(4) From GISA.

(5)-(7) From Segment I - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).

(8)-(10) Equal period to period change in (5)-(7).

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-BI_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 4:03 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Bodily Injury

($000)

As of December 31, 2013 LDF to Ultimate Projected Ultimate Selected Ultimate

Loss & ALAE # Reported Loss & ALAE # Reported Loss & ALAE # Reported Loss & # Reported

Accident Half-Yr Incurred Paid Claims Incurred Paid Claims Incurred Paid Claims ALAE Claims

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 578,433 570,751 5,203 1.002 1.015 1.000 579,590 579,590 5,203 579,590 5,203

2002-12 732,710 723,270 6,279 1.003 1.018 1.000 734,909 736,390 6,279 734,909 6,279

2003-06 634,899 623,573 5,661 1.004 1.023 1.000 637,440 637,801 5,661 637,440 5,661

2003-12 643,762 631,064 5,511 1.005 1.028 1.000 646,983 648,541 5,511 646,983 5,511

2004-06 552,803 537,785 4,064 1.006 1.033 1.000 556,122 555,683 4,064 556,122 4,064

2004-12 642,586 620,410 4,571 1.007 1.042 0.999 647,087 646,175 4,567 647,087 4,567

2005-06 565,019 546,423 3,881 1.009 1.053 0.998 570,108 575,491 3,874 570,108 3,874

2005-12 690,447 660,614 4,663 1.009 1.066 0.996 696,666 704,140 4,646 696,666 4,646

2006-06 610,654 566,496 4,406 1.011 1.087 0.994 617,378 615,530 4,380 617,378 4,380

2006-12 777,676 705,967 5,234 1.014 1.112 0.992 788,577 785,169 5,190 788,577 5,190

2007-06 697,332 615,384 5,133 1.016 1.152 0.988 708,504 709,069 5,073 708,504 5,073

2007-12 811,859 690,050 5,910 1.020 1.210 0.983 828,119 835,288 5,810 828,119 5,810

2008-06 679,958 533,893 5,167 1.029 1.301 0.978 699,708 694,796 5,053 699,708 5,053

2008-12 815,461 599,952 6,448 1.038 1.429 0.970 846,388 857,410 6,254 846,388 6,254

2009-06 767,193 496,728 6,661 1.058 1.632 0.960 811,453 810,643 6,393 811,453 6,393

2009-12 981,666 560,461 8,842 1.083 1.938 0.946 1,062,950 1,086,231 8,361 1,062,950 8,361

2010-06 875,412 405,386 9,113 1.120 2.436 0.928 980,230 987,714 8,454 980,230 8,454

2010-12 900,506 337,966 9,591 1.176 3.299 0.910 1,059,171 1,115,054 8,726 1,059,171 8,726

2011-06 674,357 191,596 7,525 1.265 4.764 0.890 852,758 912,746 6,699 852,758 6,699

2011-12 729,520 150,529 8,377 1.417 7.770 0.893 1,033,865 1,169,653 7,484 1,033,865 7,484

2012-06 513,076 60,630 6,444 1.728 14.508 1.052 886,676 879,636 6,782 886,676 6,782

2012-12 568,787 45,295 7,320 2.006 29.625 1.107 1,141,103 1,341,835 8,105 1,141,103 8,105

2013-06 435,331 12,617 7,517 2.319 76.644 1.037 1,009,317 966,996 7,795 1,009,317 7,795

2013-12 388,803 3,724 11,888 3.481 271.701 0.845 1,353,274 1,011,785 10,044 1,353,274 10,044

Total 16,268,250 10,890,564 155,409 19,748,378 19,863,370 150,408 19,748,378 150,408

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment I - Page 3.



(8)-(10) Based on loss data in Columns (2)-(4) multiplied by loss development factors in Columns (5)-(7).

(11)-(12) Judgmentally selected.

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-BI_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 2:41 PM


Review of Ontario Private Passenger Automobile Rates Page 8b

Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Bodily Injury

Earned Selected Ultimate ($000)

Premium Earned Loss & # Reported Indicated with ALAE ($)

Accident Half-Yr ($000) Exposure ALAE Claims Loss Ratio Loss Cost Severity Frequency

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 531,078 2,870,883 579,590 5,203 109.1% 202 111,395 0.18%

2002-12 588,655 2,975,925 734,909 6,279 124.8% 247 117,042 0.21%

2003-06 640,330 2,905,823 637,440 5,661 99.5% 219 112,602 0.19%

2003-12 757,987 2,986,753 646,983 5,511 85.4% 217 117,396 0.18%

2004-06 819,875 2,931,823 556,122 4,064 67.8% 190 136,840 0.14%

2004-12 889,805 3,007,798 647,087 4,567 72.7% 215 141,678 0.15%

2005-06 893,736 2,969,534 570,108 3,874 63.8% 192 147,163 0.13%

2005-12 931,498 3,087,173 696,666 4,646 74.8% 226 149,939 0.15%

2006-06 920,822 3,043,445 617,378 4,380 67.0% 203 140,962 0.14%

2006-12 967,448 3,148,721 788,577 5,190 81.5% 250 151,948 0.16%

2007-06 967,911 3,101,564 708,504 5,073 73.2% 228 139,674 0.16%

2007-12 1,023,231 3,210,587 828,119 5,810 80.9% 258 142,533 0.18%

2008-06 1,028,502 3,181,740 699,708 5,053 68.0% 220 138,471 0.16%

2008-12 1,077,744 3,268,300 846,388 6,254 78.5% 259 135,329 0.19%

2009-06 1,088,982 3,200,124 811,453 6,393 74.5% 254 126,925 0.20%

2009-12 1,166,001 3,294,784 1,062,950 8,361 91.2% 323 127,135 0.25%

2010-06 1,172,075 3,229,672 980,230 8,454 83.6% 304 115,947 0.26%

2010-12 1,243,441 3,334,909 1,059,171 8,726 85.2% 318 121,384 0.26%

2011-06 1,312,215 3,274,223 852,758 6,699 65.0% 260 127,305 0.20%

2011-12 1,445,603 3,377,588 1,033,865 7,484 71.5% 306 138,141 0.22%

2012-06 1,458,916 3,336,795 886,676 6,782 60.8% 266 130,737 0.20%

2012-12 1,514,004 3,430,630 1,141,103 8,105 75.4% 333 140,793 0.24%

2013-06 1,496,574 3,371,347 1,009,317 7,795 67.4% 299 129,483 0.23%

2013-12 1,577,100 3,479,318 1,353,274 10,044 85.8% 389 134,737 0.29%

Total 25,513,534 76,019,458 19,748,378 150,408 77.4% 260 131,299 0.20%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment I - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-BI_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 2:41 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment II


TPL - Property Damage


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 16,716 16,716 16,716 16,716 17,855 16,716 0 16,716 0

12-02 20,306 20,289 20,306 20,289 19,359 20,306 0 20,306 0

06-03 16,319 16,317 16,319 16,317 17,631 16,319 0 16,319 0

12-03 15,588 15,572 15,588 15,572 17,730 15,588 0 15,588 0

06-04 18,008 18,002 18,008 18,002 16,764 18,008 0 18,008 0

12-04 16,876 16,863 16,876 16,863 17,356 16,876 0 16,876 0

06-05 17,402 17,395 17,402 17,395 17,100 17,402 0 17,402 0

12-05 19,325 19,244 19,325 19,244 19,557 19,325 0 19,325 0

06-06 18,763 18,455 18,763 18,455 17,582 18,763 0 18,763 0

12-06 21,346 21,310 21,346 21,310 20,931 21,346 0 21,346 0

06-07 21,068 20,930 21,068 20,930 20,884 21,068 0 21,068 0

12-07 21,916 21,870 21,916 21,870 22,091 21,916 0 21,916 0

06-08 19,043 19,073 19,043 19,079 20,301 19,043 0 19,043 0

12-08 22,484 22,476 22,484 22,476 22,541 22,484 0 22,484 0

06-09 20,346 20,357 20,346 20,359 20,544 20,346 0 20,346 0

12-09 21,462 21,239 21,462 21,246 21,750 21,462 0 21,462 0

06-10 21,239 20,888 21,239 20,875 20,113 21,239 0 21,239 0

12-10 23,631 22,714 23,631 22,732 23,578 23,631 24 23,608 24

06-11 22,570 21,590 22,564 21,591 21,615 22,570 130 22,642 (72)

12-11 24,123 23,100 24,119 23,138 23,872 24,123 421 24,200 (77)

06-12 22,619 23,015 22,652 23,043 23,284 22,619 1,111 22,691 (72)

12-12 24,181 24,181 24,173 24,167 24,110 24,181 2,638 24,258 (77)

06-13 20,958 21,144 21,318 21,665 22,482 21,318 5,305 21,025 293

12-13 23,266 20,986 23,672 23,468 24,188 23,672 10,647 23,340 332

Total 489,555 483,727 490,336 486,802 493,218 490,321 20,276 489,969 352

GISA 489,969 489,969

Diff 0.08% 0.07%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment II, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment II, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-PD_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:41 PM





NOT PRINTED


Initial Selected Ultimate Counts Initial Proj. Ultimate Projected Indicated

Projected Ultimate Indicated Frequency Rate Selected Ult. Severity Ult. Severity Selected

Accident Earned Based on Dev. Method Initial Frequency Using Dev. Frequency Ultimate Using Avg. Paid Using Reported Ultimate

Year Exposure Reported Closed Selected Rate Method Rate Counts Dev. Method Dev. Method Severity

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 2,861,614 4,998 4,998 4,998 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 4,998 3,345 3,345 3,572

12-02 2,972,168 5,151 5,150 5,151 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 5,151 3,940 3,942 3,758

06-03 2,907,850 4,801 4,798 4,801 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 4,801 3,401 3,399 3,672

12-03 2,992,662 4,589 4,587 4,589 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 4,589 3,395 3,397 3,863

06-04 2,936,275 4,441 4,437 4,441 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 4,441 4,058 4,055 3,775

12-04 3,011,975 4,370 4,366 4,370 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 4,370 3,862 3,862 3,972

06-05 2,971,169 4,406 4,406 4,406 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 4,406 3,948 3,950 3,881

12-05 3,083,728 4,790 4,790 4,790 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 4,790 4,018 4,034 4,083

06-06 3,040,066 4,407 4,402 4,407 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 4,407 4,193 4,258 3,990

12-06 3,147,492 4,987 4,986 4,987 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 4,987 4,275 4,280 4,197

06-07 3,100,308 5,092 5,089 5,092 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 5,092 4,114 4,138 4,101

12-07 3,208,984 5,120 5,120 5,120 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 5,120 4,273 4,280 4,315

06-08 3,179,568 4,815 4,814 4,815 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 4,815 3,955 3,955 4,216

12-08 3,267,078 5,082 5,081 5,082 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 5,082 4,408 4,424 4,436

06-09 3,194,349 4,740 4,736 4,740 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 4,740 4,281 4,292 4,334

12-09 3,290,420 4,770 4,768 4,770 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 4,770 4,427 4,499 4,560

06-10 3,227,526 4,514 4,513 4,514 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 4,514 4,595 4,705 4,456

12-10 3,333,919 5,030 5,024 5,030 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 5,030 4,489 4,698 4,687

06-11 3,271,154 4,719 4,718 4,719 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 4,719 4,543 4,783 4,580

12-11 3,374,985 4,954 4,954 4,954 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 4,954 4,627 4,869 4,819

06-12 3,333,801 4,945 4,978 4,945 0.15% 0.15% 0.15% 4,945 4,589 4,574 4,709

12-12 3,428,122 4,867 4,866 4,867 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 4,867 4,933 4,968 4,954

06-13 3,368,931 4,645 4,636 4,645 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 4,645 4,518 4,512 4,840

12-13 3,478,643 4,750 4,410 4,750 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 4,750 4,692 4,898 5,092

Total 75,982,788 114,982 114,626 114,982 114,982

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment II, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-PD_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:41 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 10,229 13,825 16,054 16,438 16,739 16,818 16,870 17,214 16,510 16,583 16,612 16,799 16,823 16,821 16,718 16,719 16,719 16,714 16,714 16,713 16,712 16,720 16,720 16,716

12-02 12,169 17,216 18,817 19,616 19,760 19,979 19,837 20,133 20,570 20,474 20,565 20,631 20,822 20,591 20,609 20,624 20,624 20,616 20,617 20,307 20,507 20,507 20,306

06-03 12,949 15,043 15,650 16,662 16,749 16,103 16,178 16,067 16,067 16,136 16,082 16,096 16,264 16,281 16,213 16,236 16,277 16,308 16,319 16,319 16,319 16,319

12-03 11,076 14,169 14,932 15,823 15,733 15,786 15,801 15,681 15,807 16,053 15,994 15,952 15,595 15,594 15,597 15,605 15,606 15,606 15,594 15,588 15,588

06-04 10,818 13,352 16,896 16,963 17,528 17,516 17,555 17,559 17,633 17,822 17,892 18,015 18,020 18,078 18,017 18,008 18,006 18,008 18,008 18,008

12-04 13,370 16,882 17,685 18,503 19,166 18,222 17,038 16,827 16,924 16,903 16,931 16,946 16,948 16,948 16,943 16,911 16,907 16,907 16,876

06-05 12,201 14,011 15,953 16,721 17,356 17,441 17,604 17,493 17,617 17,468 17,450 17,439 17,436 17,401 17,401 17,398 17,401 17,402

12-05 11,573 15,139 16,816 18,332 18,754 19,010 19,089 19,002 18,975 18,951 18,977 18,980 19,326 19,239 19,236 19,319 19,325

06-06 11,138 14,256 16,636 17,856 18,506 18,675 18,546 18,537 18,539 18,490 18,474 18,608 18,594 18,550 18,758 18,763

12-06 12,791 17,141 19,418 20,461 21,253 21,285 21,383 21,442 21,278 21,302 21,316 21,358 21,376 21,395 21,346

06-07 12,474 17,631 19,805 20,610 21,442 21,317 21,427 21,580 21,161 21,117 21,100 21,160 21,126 21,068

12-07 11,742 16,832 19,311 21,010 21,546 21,736 21,784 21,785 21,776 21,809 21,897 21,897 21,916

06-08 11,408 15,442 17,704 18,508 19,084 19,069 19,094 19,101 19,034 19,043 19,049 19,043

12-08 13,962 17,634 19,909 21,165 21,986 22,207 22,416 22,430 22,463 22,496 22,484

06-09 13,169 15,636 18,627 19,734 20,522 20,562 20,669 20,732 20,520 20,346

12-09 12,823 16,803 19,446 20,794 21,470 21,450 21,495 21,477 21,462

06-10 13,044 16,198 19,163 20,556 20,519 21,336 22,048 21,239

12-10 14,711 18,353 21,267 22,386 23,411 23,581 23,608

06-11 14,077 17,409 19,993 21,160 22,088 22,440

12-11 13,042 18,764 21,231 22,865 23,702

06-12 12,761 16,764 20,091 21,508

12-12 13,035 18,345 21,544

06-13 12,402 16,013

12-13 13,025

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.352 1.161 1.024 1.018 1.005 1.003 1.020 0.959 1.004 1.002 1.011 1.001 1.000 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.415 1.093 1.042 1.007 1.011 0.993 1.015 1.022 0.995 1.004 1.003 1.009 0.989 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.985 1.010 1.000 0.990

06-03 1.162 1.040 1.065 1.005 0.961 1.005 0.993 1.000 1.004 0.997 1.001 1.010 1.001 0.996 1.001 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.279 1.054 1.060 0.994 1.003 1.001 0.992 1.008 1.016 0.996 0.997 0.978 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.234 1.265 1.004 1.033 0.999 1.002 1.000 1.004 1.011 1.004 1.007 1.000 1.003 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.263 1.048 1.046 1.036 0.951 0.935 0.988 1.006 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.000 0.998

06-05 1.148 1.139 1.048 1.038 1.005 1.009 0.994 1.007 0.991 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.308 1.111 1.090 1.023 1.014 1.004 0.995 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.018 0.996 1.000 1.004 1.000

06-06 1.280 1.167 1.073 1.036 1.009 0.993 1.000 1.000 0.997 0.999 1.007 0.999 0.998 1.011 1.000

12-06 1.340 1.133 1.054 1.039 1.001 1.005 1.003 0.992 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.001 0.998

06-07 1.413 1.123 1.041 1.040 0.994 1.005 1.007 0.981 0.998 0.999 1.003 0.998 0.997

12-07 1.434 1.147 1.088 1.025 1.009 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.004 1.000 1.001

06-08 1.354 1.146 1.045 1.031 0.999 1.001 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.263 1.129 1.063 1.039 1.010 1.009 1.001 1.001 1.001 0.999

06-09 1.187 1.191 1.059 1.040 1.002 1.005 1.003 0.990 0.992

12-09 1.310 1.157 1.069 1.033 0.999 1.002 0.999 0.999

06-10 1.242 1.183 1.073 0.998 1.040 1.033 0.963

12-10 1.248 1.159 1.053 1.046 1.007 1.001

06-11 1.237 1.148 1.058 1.044 1.016

12-11 1.439 1.131 1.077 1.037

06-12 1.314 1.198 1.071

12-12 1.407 1.174

06-13 1.291

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.301 1.141 1.057 1.028 1.002 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.001 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.997 1.002 1.000 0.995 1.000

Latest 6 1.323 1.166 1.067 1.033 1.012 1.009 0.994 0.995 0.999 1.000 1.002 1.003 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.997 1.002 1.000 0.995 1.000

Latest 4 1.363 1.163 1.065 1.031 1.016 1.010 0.992 0.997 0.999 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.998 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.002 1.000 0.995 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.302 1.140 1.058 1.029 1.003 1.003 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.002 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.995 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.302 1.169 1.066 1.037 1.007 1.004 1.001 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.995 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.315 1.166 1.068 1.038 1.009 1.005 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.995 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.299 1.140 1.058 1.029 1.002 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.002 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.003 1.000 0.995 1.000

Latest 6 1.320 1.165 1.067 1.033 1.012 1.009 0.994 0.995 0.999 1.001 1.002 1.003 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.003 1.000 0.995 1.000

Latest 4 1.364 1.162 1.065 1.032 1.015 1.010 0.991 0.997 0.999 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.998 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.003 1.000 0.995 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.365 1.166 1.067 1.033 1.012 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.365 1.166 1.067 1.033 1.012 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 1.792 1.313 1.126 1.055 1.021 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.786 1.309 1.122 1.052 1.018 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-PD_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:41 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 4,741 11,446 13,743 14,889 15,533 15,744 15,949 16,293 16,296 16,298 16,307 16,393 16,390 16,691 16,712 16,713 16,713 16,713 16,713 16,713 16,712 16,720 16,720 16,716

12-02 4,910 12,784 15,514 16,702 17,727 17,967 18,091 18,599 18,676 19,349 19,721 19,872 20,083 20,260 20,282 20,282 20,287 20,289 20,290 20,290 20,290 20,290 20,289

06-03 5,629 11,696 13,921 14,778 15,138 15,189 15,369 15,505 15,603 15,676 15,708 15,725 15,810 15,837 16,203 16,225 16,266 16,294 16,317 16,317 16,317 16,317

12-03 4,138 11,243 13,357 14,216 14,720 14,973 15,208 15,413 15,460 15,477 15,532 15,567 15,570 15,569 15,569 15,579 15,579 15,579 15,579 15,572 15,572

06-04 5,175 11,119 13,277 13,991 14,500 14,943 15,374 15,440 15,530 17,795 17,850 17,883 17,885 17,991 17,992 18,001 18,001 18,002 18,002 18,002

12-04 4,222 11,448 13,802 14,886 15,586 15,987 16,327 16,305 16,416 16,459 16,577 16,864 16,866 16,866 16,865 16,864 16,864 16,864 16,863

06-05 4,853 11,015 14,349 15,813 16,572 16,844 17,184 17,270 17,329 17,334 17,369 17,389 17,395 17,392 17,392 17,392 17,395 17,395

12-05 4,188 11,192 14,531 16,223 17,849 18,213 18,595 18,744 18,773 18,775 18,805 18,818 19,309 19,235 19,235 19,237 19,244

06-06 4,535 10,882 14,638 16,528 17,408 18,039 18,066 18,253 18,261 18,262 18,268 18,300 18,400 18,410 18,443 18,455

12-06 4,638 12,892 16,726 18,550 20,061 20,434 20,747 20,958 21,035 21,050 21,098 21,282 21,318 21,310 21,310

06-07 5,377 12,870 16,683 18,384 20,020 20,261 20,449 20,689 20,775 20,822 20,838 20,853 20,889 20,930

12-07 4,238 13,192 17,315 19,794 20,987 21,299 21,502 21,634 21,662 21,706 21,844 21,854 21,870

06-08 5,043 12,389 15,888 17,554 18,444 18,833 18,872 18,938 18,943 18,961 18,981 18,989

12-08 4,907 13,725 17,906 20,041 21,533 21,807 22,086 22,145 22,150 22,158 22,317

06-09 4,992 11,797 16,035 17,869 19,079 19,600 19,781 19,809 19,844 20,150

12-09 4,608 12,803 17,039 19,521 20,427 20,786 20,874 20,932 20,949

06-10 5,043 12,794 16,792 18,518 19,829 20,182 20,341 20,549

12-10 4,972 13,922 18,203 20,398 21,501 21,941 22,247

06-11 5,057 12,915 17,227 19,250 20,392 20,967

12-11 4,627 13,954 18,343 20,671 21,982

06-12 5,791 14,355 18,918 20,660

12-12 4,719 14,856 19,427

06-13 5,504 12,914

12-13 4,718

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 2.414 1.201 1.083 1.043 1.014 1.013 1.022 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.005 1.000 1.018 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 2.604 1.214 1.077 1.061 1.014 1.007 1.028 1.004 1.036 1.019 1.008 1.011 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 2.078 1.190 1.062 1.024 1.003 1.012 1.009 1.006 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.005 1.002 1.023 1.001 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 2.717 1.188 1.064 1.035 1.017 1.016 1.013 1.003 1.001 1.004 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 2.148 1.194 1.054 1.036 1.031 1.029 1.004 1.006 1.146 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 2.712 1.206 1.079 1.047 1.026 1.021 0.999 1.007 1.003 1.007 1.017 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 2.270 1.303 1.102 1.048 1.016 1.020 1.005 1.003 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 2.673 1.298 1.116 1.100 1.020 1.021 1.008 1.002 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.026 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 2.400 1.345 1.129 1.053 1.036 1.001 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.005 1.001 1.002 1.001

12-06 2.780 1.297 1.109 1.081 1.019 1.015 1.010 1.004 1.001 1.002 1.009 1.002 1.000 1.000

06-07 2.394 1.296 1.102 1.089 1.012 1.009 1.012 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.002

12-07 3.113 1.313 1.143 1.060 1.015 1.010 1.006 1.001 1.002 1.006 1.000 1.001

06-08 2.457 1.282 1.105 1.051 1.021 1.002 1.004 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000

12-08 2.797 1.305 1.119 1.074 1.013 1.013 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.007

06-09 2.363 1.359 1.114 1.068 1.027 1.009 1.001 1.002 1.015

12-09 2.778 1.331 1.146 1.046 1.018 1.004 1.003 1.001

06-10 2.537 1.312 1.103 1.071 1.018 1.008 1.010

12-10 2.800 1.307 1.121 1.054 1.020 1.014

06-11 2.554 1.334 1.117 1.059 1.028

12-11 3.016 1.315 1.127 1.063

06-12 2.479 1.318 1.092

12-12 3.148 1.308

06-13 2.346

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 2.590 1.283 1.103 1.058 1.019 1.012 1.009 1.003 1.014 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.724 1.316 1.118 1.060 1.021 1.008 1.004 1.001 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.747 1.318 1.114 1.062 1.021 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 2.588 1.283 1.103 1.058 1.019 1.012 1.008 1.003 1.005 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 2.694 1.320 1.117 1.061 1.020 1.009 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 2.712 1.313 1.117 1.061 1.021 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.003 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 2.575 1.285 1.105 1.059 1.019 1.012 1.008 1.003 1.013 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.703 1.315 1.117 1.060 1.021 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.717 1.318 1.114 1.062 1.021 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 2.717 1.315 1.117 1.060 1.021 1.009 1.004 1.003 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 4.448 1.637 1.245 1.114 1.051 1.030 1.021 1.016 1.014 1.010 1.007 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-PD_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:41 PM





Reported Claim Counts

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 4,386 4,812 4,942 5,004 5,014 5,015 5,015 5,011 5,004 5,001 4,997 4,997 4,999 4,997 4,999 4,999 4,999 4,998 4,998 4,999 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998

12-02 4,942 4,904 5,067 5,149 5,170 5,173 5,161 5,160 5,156 5,156 5,156 5,155 5,156 5,153 5,151 5,152 5,152 5,151 5,152 5,151 5,151 5,151 5,151

06-03 4,737 4,590 4,718 4,731 4,815 4,814 4,810 4,807 4,813 4,811 4,803 4,806 4,806 4,804 4,804 4,804 4,804 4,804 4,803 4,801 4,801 4,801

12-03 4,508 4,337 4,488 4,595 4,609 4,603 4,591 4,597 4,598 4,595 4,592 4,590 4,591 4,591 4,590 4,591 4,591 4,590 4,589 4,589 4,589

06-04 4,140 4,110 4,338 4,405 4,457 4,438 4,452 4,441 4,446 4,440 4,439 4,441 4,441 4,440 4,442 4,441 4,440 4,441 4,441 4,441

12-04 4,768 4,087 4,225 4,330 4,394 4,422 4,389 4,371 4,376 4,379 4,375 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,373 4,372 4,370 4,371 4,370

06-05 4,264 3,955 4,274 4,328 4,432 4,425 4,422 4,419 4,413 4,412 4,410 4,408 4,409 4,407 4,408 4,405 4,406 4,406

12-05 4,511 4,184 4,560 4,780 4,804 4,812 4,807 4,805 4,795 4,791 4,794 4,792 4,792 4,792 4,791 4,791 4,790

06-06 3,951 3,777 4,197 4,336 4,397 4,428 4,415 4,414 4,414 4,408 4,408 4,409 4,406 4,407 4,407 4,407

12-06 4,224 4,282 4,709 4,893 4,992 5,004 4,999 4,995 4,990 4,992 4,988 4,985 4,989 4,991 4,987

06-07 4,365 4,373 4,849 5,019 5,123 5,113 5,099 5,098 5,094 5,094 5,092 5,092 5,094 5,092

12-07 4,092 4,300 4,877 5,073 5,140 5,125 5,120 5,115 5,119 5,122 5,124 5,118 5,120

06-08 4,118 4,154 4,621 4,780 4,834 4,821 4,815 4,813 4,813 4,816 4,816 4,815

12-08 4,647 4,518 4,854 5,026 5,097 5,086 5,088 5,086 5,082 5,081 5,082

06-09 4,339 4,167 4,513 4,678 4,758 4,744 4,741 4,748 4,743 4,740

12-09 4,208 4,273 4,568 4,724 4,768 4,768 4,775 4,769 4,770

06-10 3,919 3,997 4,352 4,449 4,501 4,511 4,511 4,514

12-10 4,491 4,331 4,764 4,938 5,037 5,042 5,030

06-11 3,966 4,093 4,475 4,628 4,712 4,719

12-11 3,992 4,239 4,662 4,884 4,954

06-12 3,987 4,212 4,715 4,872

12-12 4,251 4,244 4,631

06-13 4,011 4,014

12-13 3,990

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.097 1.027 1.013 1.002 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 0.992 1.033 1.016 1.004 1.001 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.969 1.028 1.003 1.018 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.000 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 0.962 1.035 1.024 1.003 0.999 0.997 1.001 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 0.993 1.055 1.015 1.012 0.996 1.003 0.998 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 0.857 1.034 1.025 1.015 1.006 0.993 0.996 1.001 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 0.928 1.081 1.013 1.024 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000

12-05 0.928 1.090 1.048 1.005 1.002 0.999 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 0.956 1.111 1.033 1.014 1.007 0.997 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.014 1.100 1.039 1.020 1.002 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.000 0.999

06-07 1.002 1.109 1.035 1.021 0.998 0.997 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.051 1.134 1.040 1.013 0.997 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

06-08 1.009 1.112 1.034 1.011 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

12-08 0.972 1.074 1.035 1.014 0.998 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000

06-09 0.960 1.083 1.037 1.017 0.997 0.999 1.001 0.999 0.999

12-09 1.015 1.069 1.034 1.009 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000

06-10 1.020 1.089 1.022 1.012 1.002 1.000 1.001

12-10 0.964 1.100 1.037 1.020 1.001 0.998

06-11 1.032 1.093 1.034 1.018 1.001

12-11 1.062 1.100 1.048 1.014

06-12 1.056 1.119 1.033

12-12 0.998 1.091

06-13 1.001

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 0.993 1.080 1.029 1.013 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.019 1.099 1.035 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.029 1.101 1.038 1.016 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 0.994 1.080 1.030 1.013 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.020 1.093 1.035 1.014 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.022 1.096 1.035 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 0.991 1.079 1.029 1.013 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.018 1.099 1.035 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.029 1.101 1.038 1.016 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.008 1.099 1.035 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.029 1.101 1.035 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 1.164 1.155 1.051 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.190 1.157 1.051 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-PD_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:41 PM





Closed Claim Counts

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 1,945 4,202 4,761 4,910 4,965 4,983 4,990 4,993 4,994 4,994 4,996 4,996 4,996 4,996 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998 4,998

12-02 1,931 4,309 4,847 5,046 5,101 5,118 5,129 5,131 5,131 5,141 5,143 5,145 5,149 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150 5,150

06-03 2,185 4,018 4,527 4,647 4,741 4,751 4,759 4,760 4,791 4,794 4,795 4,794 4,796 4,796 4,797 4,798 4,798 4,798 4,798 4,798 4,798 4,798

12-03 1,613 3,850 4,282 4,450 4,509 4,529 4,538 4,577 4,579 4,580 4,584 4,586 4,587 4,587 4,587 4,587 4,587 4,587 4,587 4,587 4,587

06-04 1,931 3,660 4,157 4,302 4,374 4,383 4,428 4,430 4,429 4,432 4,434 4,435 4,435 4,435 4,435 4,435 4,435 4,437 4,437 4,437

12-04 1,520 3,509 3,993 4,201 4,265 4,343 4,353 4,353 4,360 4,363 4,364 4,365 4,365 4,365 4,365 4,365 4,365 4,366 4,366

06-05 1,645 3,416 4,100 4,238 4,353 4,383 4,390 4,396 4,400 4,402 4,403 4,404 4,404 4,404 4,405 4,405 4,406 4,406

12-05 1,428 3,512 4,316 4,640 4,739 4,760 4,771 4,777 4,780 4,783 4,786 4,786 4,787 4,788 4,788 4,789 4,789

06-06 1,552 3,270 4,001 4,242 4,342 4,385 4,391 4,399 4,400 4,400 4,399 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,401 4,401

12-06 1,480 3,636 4,490 4,780 4,927 4,956 4,970 4,977 4,980 4,980 4,981 4,982 4,985 4,985 4,985

06-07 1,825 3,825 4,599 4,880 5,040 5,062 5,076 5,076 5,080 5,082 5,082 5,083 5,087 5,088

12-07 1,387 3,691 4,634 4,950 5,065 5,087 5,096 5,106 5,110 5,112 5,113 5,116 5,118

06-08 1,589 3,598 4,387 4,638 4,763 4,794 4,797 4,799 4,803 4,807 4,810 4,811

12-08 1,430 3,867 4,648 4,921 5,044 5,058 5,070 5,072 5,072 5,076 5,076

06-09 1,694 3,622 4,344 4,584 4,694 4,715 4,722 4,726 4,728 4,731

12-09 1,552 3,771 4,419 4,652 4,725 4,748 4,756 4,757 4,761

06-10 1,682 3,593 4,174 4,355 4,457 4,484 4,497 4,503

12-10 1,579 3,774 4,563 4,850 4,964 4,999 5,009

06-11 1,634 3,632 4,340 4,552 4,674 4,695

12-11 1,475 3,753 4,474 4,792 4,906

06-12 1,778 3,752 4,546 4,819

12-12 1,472 3,689 4,458

06-13 1,705 3,550

12-13 1,470

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 2.160 1.133 1.031 1.011 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 2.231 1.125 1.041 1.011 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.839 1.127 1.027 1.020 1.002 1.002 1.000 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 2.387 1.112 1.039 1.013 1.004 1.002 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.895 1.136 1.035 1.017 1.002 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 2.309 1.138 1.052 1.015 1.018 1.002 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 2.077 1.200 1.034 1.027 1.007 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 2.459 1.229 1.075 1.021 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 2.107 1.224 1.060 1.024 1.010 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 2.457 1.235 1.065 1.031 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-07 2.096 1.202 1.061 1.033 1.004 1.003 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

12-07 2.661 1.255 1.068 1.023 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-08 2.264 1.219 1.057 1.027 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000

12-08 2.704 1.202 1.059 1.025 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-09 2.138 1.199 1.055 1.024 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001

12-09 2.430 1.172 1.053 1.016 1.005 1.002 1.000 1.001

06-10 2.136 1.162 1.043 1.023 1.006 1.003 1.001

12-10 2.390 1.209 1.063 1.024 1.007 1.002

06-11 2.223 1.195 1.049 1.027 1.004

12-11 2.544 1.192 1.071 1.024

06-12 2.110 1.212 1.060

12-12 2.506 1.208

06-13 2.082

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 2.270 1.186 1.052 1.022 1.006 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.309 1.196 1.056 1.023 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.311 1.202 1.061 1.024 1.006 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 2.270 1.186 1.052 1.022 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 2.299 1.196 1.056 1.024 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 2.307 1.201 1.056 1.024 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 2.248 1.184 1.052 1.022 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.297 1.197 1.057 1.023 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.293 1.202 1.061 1.024 1.006 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 2.297 1.197 1.057 1.023 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 3.000 1.306 1.092 1.033 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-PD_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:41 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Property Damage





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 6 6 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3,642 3,908 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.17% 0.16% 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 7 7 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,293 3,962 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.17% 0.16% 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 6 6 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3,685 4,017 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.17% 0.16% 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 6 7 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3,682 4,073 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.16% 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 7 6 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,461 4,129 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.16% 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 6 7 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,248 4,186 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.16% 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 6 7 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,313 4,244 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.16% 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 7 7 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,406 4,303 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.16% 0.16% 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 7 7 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,607 4,363 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.16% 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 7 7 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,631 4,423 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.16% 0.15% 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 7 7 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,489 4,485 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.16% 0.15% 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 7 7 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,644 4,547 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.16% 0.15% 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 6 7 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,255 4,610 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.15% 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 7 7 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,760 4,674 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.16% 0.15% 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 7 7 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,614 4,739 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.15% 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 7 7 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,837 4,804 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.15% 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 7 7 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,016 4,871 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.15% 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 8 7 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,008 4,938 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.15% 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-06 0.0% 7 7 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,180 5,007 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.14% 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-12 0.0% 8 7 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,274 5,076 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.14% 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-06 0.0% 7 7 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,938 5,147 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.15% 0.14% 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-12 0.0% 8 8 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,364 5,218 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.14% 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-06 0.0% 7 7 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,871 5,290 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.14% 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-12 0.0% 7 8 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,288 5,364 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.14% 0.14% 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(26) Indicated Trend 0.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend (0.7%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


(28) t-value => observed 5.1 2.2 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed 10.4 n/a n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed (6.1) n/a n/a n/a n/a

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a







(36) Selected Trend 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend (0.7%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pre-reform annual trend 1.4% 1.4% Pre-reform annual trend 2.8% 2.8% Pre-reform annual trend -1.4% -1.4%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend 1.4% 1.4% Post-reform annual trend 2.8% 2.8% Post-reform annual trend -1.4% -1.4%

See Segment II - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0%

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

0.14%

0.16%

0.18%

0.20%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-PD_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 3:08 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Property Damage





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 33,381 2,861,614 8.9% 6 3,642 0.17%

2002-12 38,515 2,972,168 8.9% 7 4,293 0.17%

2003-06 39,169 2,907,850 8.4% 6 3,685 0.17% (4.4%) 1.2% (5.5%)

2003-12 42,159 2,992,662 8.4% 6 3,682 0.15% (24.1%) (14.2%) (11.5%)

2004-06 45,333 2,936,275 10.0% 7 4,461 0.15% 10.9% 21.1% (8.4%)

2004-12 49,303 3,011,975 10.0% 6 4,248 0.15% 9.2% 15.4% (5.4%)

2005-06 45,766 2,971,169 9.2% 6 4,313 0.15% (5.2%) (3.3%) (1.9%)

2005-12 44,762 3,083,728 9.2% 7 4,406 0.16% 11.0% 3.7% 7.1%

2006-06 42,448 3,040,066 8.2% 7 4,607 0.14% 4.4% 6.8% (2.2%)

2006-12 42,464 3,147,492 8.2% 7 4,631 0.16% 7.2% 5.1% 2.0%

2007-06 41,923 3,100,308 8.5% 7 4,489 0.16% 10.4% (2.6%) 13.3%

2007-12 43,600 3,208,984 8.5% 7 4,644 0.16% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7%

2008-06 43,414 3,179,568 7.6% 6 4,255 0.15% (12.6%) (5.2%) (7.8%)

2008-12 44,506 3,267,078 7.6% 7 4,760 0.16% (0.1%) 2.5% (2.5%)

2009-06 42,895 3,194,349 7.5% 7 4,614 0.15% 6.3% 8.4% (2.0%)

2009-12 43,031 3,290,420 7.5% 7 4,837 0.14% (5.3%) 1.6% (6.8%)

2010-06 41,869 3,227,526 6.6% 7 5,016 0.14% 2.5% 8.7% (5.7%)

2010-12 44,076 3,333,919 6.6% 8 5,008 0.15% 7.8% 3.5% 4.1%

2011-06 44,660 3,271,154 8.3% 7 5,180 0.14% 6.5% 3.3% 3.1%

2011-12 47,502 3,374,985 8.3% 8 5,274 0.15% 2.4% 5.3% (2.7%)

2012-06 47,741 3,333,801 8.0% 7 4,938 0.15% (2.0%) (4.7%) 2.8%

2012-12 49,460 3,428,122 8.0% 8 5,364 0.14% (1.6%) 1.7% (3.3%)

2013-06 48,784 3,368,931 8.0% 7 4,871 0.14% (8.3%) (1.4%) (7.1%)

2013-12 50,834 3,478,643 8.0% 7 5,288 0.14% (5.2%) (1.4%) (3.8%)

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment II - Page 8b.

(4) From GISA.

(5)-(7) From Segment II - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-PD_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 4:08 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Property Damage

($000)




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 16,716 16,716 4,998 1.000 1.000 1.000 16,716 16,716 4,998 16,716 4,998

2002-12 20,306 20,289 5,151 1.000 1.000 1.000 20,306 20,289 5,151 20,306 5,151

2003-06 16,319 16,317 4,801 1.000 1.000 1.000 16,319 16,317 4,801 16,319 4,801

2003-12 15,588 15,572 4,589 1.000 1.000 1.000 15,588 15,572 4,589 15,588 4,589

2004-06 18,008 18,002 4,441 1.000 1.000 1.000 18,008 18,002 4,441 18,008 4,441

2004-12 16,876 16,863 4,370 1.000 1.000 1.000 16,876 16,863 4,370 16,876 4,370

2005-06 17,402 17,395 4,406 1.000 1.000 1.000 17,402 17,395 4,406 17,402 4,406

2005-12 19,325 19,244 4,790 1.000 1.000 1.000 19,325 19,244 4,790 19,325 4,790

2006-06 18,763 18,455 4,407 1.000 1.000 1.000 18,763 18,455 4,407 18,763 4,407

2006-12 21,346 21,310 4,987 1.000 1.000 1.000 21,346 21,310 4,987 21,346 4,987

2007-06 21,068 20,930 5,092 1.000 1.000 1.000 21,068 20,930 5,092 21,068 5,092

2007-12 21,916 21,870 5,120 1.000 1.000 1.000 21,916 21,870 5,120 21,916 5,120

2008-06 19,043 18,989 4,815 1.000 1.004 1.000 19,043 19,073 4,815 19,043 4,815

2008-12 22,484 22,317 5,082 1.000 1.007 1.000 22,484 22,476 5,082 22,484 5,082

2009-06 20,346 20,150 4,740 1.000 1.010 1.000 20,346 20,357 4,740 20,346 4,740

2009-12 21,462 20,949 4,770 1.000 1.014 1.000 21,462 21,239 4,770 21,462 4,770

2010-06 21,239 20,549 4,514 1.000 1.016 1.000 21,239 20,888 4,514 21,239 4,514

2010-12 23,608 22,247 5,030 1.001 1.021 1.000 23,631 22,714 5,030 23,631 5,030

2011-06 22,440 20,967 4,719 1.006 1.030 1.000 22,570 21,590 4,719 22,570 4,719

2011-12 23,702 21,982 4,954 1.018 1.051 1.000 24,123 23,100 4,954 24,123 4,954

2012-06 21,508 20,660 4,872 1.052 1.114 1.015 22,619 23,015 4,945 22,619 4,945

2012-12 21,544 19,427 4,631 1.122 1.245 1.051 24,181 24,181 4,867 24,181 4,867

2013-06 16,013 12,914 4,014 1.309 1.637 1.157 20,958 21,144 4,645 20,958 4,645

2013-12 13,025 4,718 3,990 1.786 4.448 1.190 23,266 20,986 4,750 23,266 4,750

Total 470,044 448,833 113,283 489,555 483,727 114,982 489,555 114,982

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment II - Page 3.





IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-PD_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:08 PM



Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Property Damage




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 33,381 2,861,614 16,716 4,998 50.1% 6 3,345 0.17%

2002-12 38,515 2,972,168 20,306 5,151 52.7% 7 3,942 0.17%

2003-06 39,169 2,907,850 16,319 4,801 41.7% 6 3,399 0.17%

2003-12 42,159 2,992,662 15,588 4,589 37.0% 5 3,397 0.15%

2004-06 45,333 2,936,275 18,008 4,441 39.7% 6 4,055 0.15%

2004-12 49,303 3,011,975 16,876 4,370 34.2% 6 3,862 0.15%

2005-06 45,766 2,971,169 17,402 4,406 38.0% 6 3,950 0.15%

2005-12 44,762 3,083,728 19,325 4,790 43.2% 6 4,034 0.16%

2006-06 42,448 3,040,066 18,763 4,407 44.2% 6 4,258 0.14%

2006-12 42,464 3,147,492 21,346 4,987 50.3% 7 4,280 0.16%

2007-06 41,923 3,100,308 21,068 5,092 50.3% 7 4,138 0.16%

2007-12 43,600 3,208,984 21,916 5,120 50.3% 7 4,280 0.16%

2008-06 43,414 3,179,568 19,043 4,815 43.9% 6 3,955 0.15%

2008-12 44,506 3,267,078 22,484 5,082 50.5% 7 4,424 0.16%

2009-06 42,895 3,194,349 20,346 4,740 47.4% 6 4,292 0.15%

2009-12 43,031 3,290,420 21,462 4,770 49.9% 7 4,499 0.14%

2010-06 41,869 3,227,526 21,239 4,514 50.7% 7 4,705 0.14%

2010-12 44,076 3,333,919 23,631 5,030 53.6% 7 4,698 0.15%

2011-06 44,660 3,271,154 22,570 4,719 50.5% 7 4,783 0.14%

2011-12 47,502 3,374,985 24,123 4,954 50.8% 7 4,869 0.15%

2012-06 47,741 3,333,801 22,619 4,945 47.4% 7 4,574 0.15%

2012-12 49,460 3,428,122 24,181 4,867 48.9% 7 4,968 0.14%

2013-06 48,784 3,368,931 20,958 4,645 43.0% 6 4,512 0.14%

2013-12 50,834 3,478,643 23,266 4,750 45.8% 7 4,898 0.14%

Total 1,057,593 75,982,788 489,555 114,982 46.3% 6 4,258 0.15%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment II - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-PD_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:08 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment III


TPL - Direct Compensation


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


12-02 427,485 427,485 427,485 427,485 444,443 427,485 0 427,485 0

06-03 408,808 408,808 408,808 408,808 412,488 408,808 0 408,808 0

12-03 379,787 379,787 379,787 379,787 379,799 379,787 0 379,787 0

06-04 351,969 351,968 351,969 351,968 358,303 351,969 0 351,969 0

12-04 365,436 365,425 365,436 365,425 375,056 365,436 0 365,436 0

06-05 349,004 348,998 349,004 348,998 353,903 349,004 0 349,004 0

12-05 389,636 389,635 389,636 389,635 389,602 389,636 0 389,636 0

06-06 346,357 346,343 346,357 346,343 342,752 346,357 0 346,357 0

12-06 401,377 401,355 401,377 401,355 399,891 401,377 0 401,377 0

06-07 399,620 399,620 399,620 399,620 387,024 399,620 0 399,620 0

12-07 426,002 425,978 426,002 425,978 412,555 426,002 0 426,002 0

06-08 410,132 410,130 410,132 410,130 404,786 410,132 0 410,132 0

12-08 435,659 435,656 435,659 435,656 431,597 435,659 0 435,659 0

06-09 405,005 404,972 405,005 404,972 408,483 405,005 0 405,005 0

12-09 424,762 424,640 424,762 424,640 424,092 424,762 0 424,762 0

06-10 399,654 399,514 399,654 399,514 402,982 399,654 0 399,654 0

12-10 455,038 454,622 455,038 454,622 454,445 455,038 0 455,038 0

06-11 411,004 410,745 411,004 410,745 406,994 411,004 0 411,004 0

12-11 433,023 431,745 433,023 431,745 434,281 433,023 0 433,023 0

06-12 387,563 387,020 387,563 387,020 389,374 387,563 0 387,563 0

12-12 442,222 442,174 442,222 442,177 444,707 442,222 0 442,222 0

06-13 427,429 428,045 427,429 427,962 416,561 427,429 0 427,429 0

12-13 496,924 480,833 495,904 477,254 463,001 496,924 14,941 496,924 0

Total 9,741,734 9,723,338 9,740,714 9,719,678 9,743,339 9,741,734 14,941 9,741,734 0

GISA 9,741,734 9,741,734

Diff 0.00% 0.00%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment III, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment III, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-DC_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:39 PM





NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)


12-02 2,956,207 107,599 107,597 107,599 3.64% 3.64% 3.64% 107,599 3,973 3,973 4,131

06-03 2,886,800 103,700 103,699 103,700 3.59% 3.59% 3.59% 103,700 3,942 3,942 3,978

12-03 2,968,998 91,219 91,217 91,219 3.07% 3.07% 3.07% 91,219 4,164 4,163 4,164

06-04 2,911,747 89,363 89,363 89,363 3.07% 3.07% 3.07% 89,363 3,939 3,939 4,010

12-04 2,983,277 89,365 89,364 89,365 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 89,365 4,089 4,089 4,197

06-05 2,954,704 87,565 87,564 87,565 2.96% 2.96% 2.96% 87,565 3,986 3,986 4,042

12-05 3,079,035 92,094 92,094 92,094 2.99% 2.99% 2.99% 92,094 4,231 4,231 4,230

06-06 3,038,243 84,133 84,130 84,133 2.77% 2.77% 2.77% 84,133 4,117 4,117 4,074

12-06 3,144,597 93,776 93,776 93,776 2.98% 2.98% 2.98% 93,776 4,280 4,280 4,264

06-07 3,099,303 94,246 94,244 94,246 3.04% 3.04% 3.04% 94,246 4,240 4,240 4,107

12-07 3,207,925 95,978 95,975 95,978 2.99% 2.99% 2.99% 95,978 4,438 4,439 4,298

06-08 3,179,685 97,789 97,789 97,789 3.08% 3.08% 3.08% 97,789 4,194 4,194 4,139

12-08 3,266,938 99,611 99,606 99,611 3.05% 3.05% 3.05% 99,611 4,374 4,374 4,333

06-09 3,198,405 97,899 97,892 97,899 3.06% 3.06% 3.06% 97,899 4,137 4,137 4,172

12-09 3,293,102 97,102 97,090 97,102 2.95% 2.95% 2.95% 97,102 4,374 4,374 4,367

06-10 3,228,048 95,814 95,802 95,814 2.97% 2.97% 2.97% 95,814 4,170 4,171 4,206

12-10 3,331,750 103,226 103,204 103,226 3.10% 3.10% 3.10% 103,226 4,405 4,408 4,402

06-11 3,270,433 96,000 95,976 96,000 2.94% 2.93% 2.94% 96,000 4,280 4,281 4,240

12-11 3,373,182 97,863 97,844 97,863 2.90% 2.90% 2.90% 97,863 4,413 4,425 4,438

06-12 3,333,584 91,115 91,080 91,115 2.73% 2.73% 2.73% 91,115 4,249 4,254 4,273

12-12 3,428,081 99,417 99,406 99,417 2.90% 2.90% 2.90% 99,417 4,447 4,448 4,473

06-13 3,369,797 96,703 96,777 96,703 2.87% 2.87% 2.87% 96,703 4,422 4,420 4,308

12-13 3,478,131 107,114 102,685 102,685 2.95% 3.07% 2.95% 102,685 4,680 4,639 4,509

Total 75,837,295 2,311,632 2,307,114 2,307,203 2,307,203

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment III, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-DC_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:39 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 353,519 368,697 368,385 368,463 368,289 368,176 368,174 368,150 367,991 367,847 367,835 367,823 367,826 367,844 367,842 367,842 367,844 367,848 367,845 367,849 367,843 367,841 367,842 367,841

12-02 407,907 428,790 427,952 427,821 427,776 428,103 427,860 427,817 427,836 427,716 427,580 427,519 427,510 427,487 427,493 427,479 427,481 427,460 427,496 427,497 427,496 427,491 427,485

06-03 396,729 409,686 409,572 409,196 409,387 409,336 409,309 409,192 409,079 408,892 408,880 408,863 408,849 408,846 408,825 408,819 408,826 408,823 408,817 408,809 408,809 408,808

12-03 363,669 380,705 380,399 381,003 380,271 380,049 379,998 380,029 379,952 379,905 379,885 379,880 379,859 379,845 379,824 379,818 379,809 379,799 379,795 379,789 379,787

06-04 342,378 354,005 351,937 351,820 351,903 351,967 351,988 351,991 352,057 352,009 352,043 351,994 351,995 351,986 351,997 351,989 351,988 351,974 351,972 351,969

12-04 340,781 366,498 365,738 365,903 365,903 365,888 365,791 365,775 365,734 365,528 365,453 365,436 365,414 365,429 365,425 365,453 365,452 365,438 365,436

06-05 335,314 349,744 349,468 349,211 349,283 349,182 349,225 349,336 349,209 349,147 349,110 349,064 349,050 349,033 349,024 349,021 349,007 349,004

12-05 363,767 389,765 389,905 389,879 389,753 389,759 389,730 389,702 389,712 389,708 389,707 389,733 389,719 389,672 389,660 389,650 389,636

06-06 334,984 346,286 346,108 346,156 346,360 346,314 346,362 346,337 346,314 346,302 346,289 346,288 346,349 346,350 346,382 346,357

12-06 379,871 402,171 401,515 401,544 401,512 401,690 401,595 401,519 401,406 401,358 401,376 401,360 401,370 401,384 401,377

06-07 384,715 400,028 399,710 399,655 399,594 399,524 399,539 399,600 399,631 399,620 399,618 399,610 399,605 399,620

12-07 403,169 426,179 426,075 425,798 425,695 425,769 425,754 425,839 425,901 426,042 425,966 425,990 426,002

06-08 399,202 410,209 410,090 409,862 409,605 410,071 410,064 410,011 410,086 410,106 410,122 410,132

12-08 416,217 436,954 435,998 435,691 435,624 435,614 435,624 435,706 435,651 435,649 435,659

06-09 401,754 405,796 405,109 405,009 404,963 404,968 404,982 405,093 405,053 405,005

12-09 408,823 425,037 425,005 424,946 424,991 424,914 424,781 424,744 424,762

06-10 387,202 399,047 399,593 399,809 399,514 399,507 399,569 399,654

12-10 440,591 454,821 454,695 454,518 454,679 455,055 455,038

06-11 403,129 411,305 411,121 410,998 410,924 411,004

12-11 421,300 433,176 432,986 432,937 433,023

06-12 379,780 387,150 387,280 387,563

12-12 428,144 442,213 442,222

06-13 415,576 427,429

12-13 481,982

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.043 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.051 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.033 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.047 0.999 1.002 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.034 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.075 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.043 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.071 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.034 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.059 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.040 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.057 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.028 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.050 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.010 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.040 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.031 1.001 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.032 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-11 1.020 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.028 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-12 1.019 1.000 1.001

12-12 1.033 1.000

06-13 1.029

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.039 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.027 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.027 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.039 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.029 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.027 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.039 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.027 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.027 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.031 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.031 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 1.031 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.031 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-DC_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:39 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 293,646 364,617 367,303 367,742 367,881 367,966 368,076 368,070 367,935 367,790 367,781 367,780 367,803 367,824 367,831 367,835 367,844 367,847 367,845 367,843 367,842 367,841 367,842 367,841

12-02 328,332 424,244 426,686 427,183 427,400 427,600 427,603 427,632 427,660 427,638 427,511 427,499 427,501 427,478 427,490 427,480 427,480 427,459 427,492 427,496 427,495 427,490 427,485

06-03 339,008 405,957 408,475 408,703 408,888 409,034 409,048 409,027 408,984 408,857 408,860 408,858 408,844 408,839 408,821 408,819 408,823 408,819 408,817 408,808 408,809 408,808

12-03 299,227 377,557 379,471 379,782 379,951 379,861 379,882 379,891 379,870 379,850 379,857 379,865 379,861 379,840 379,825 379,814 379,804 379,795 379,792 379,786 379,787

06-04 294,188 349,340 351,108 351,403 351,599 351,702 351,758 351,830 351,908 351,904 352,002 351,971 351,977 351,971 351,990 351,987 351,985 351,974 351,971 351,968

12-04 280,377 362,919 364,815 365,427 365,532 365,621 365,611 365,593 365,605 365,412 365,394 365,382 365,393 365,398 365,408 365,425 365,431 365,437 365,425

06-05 284,222 346,472 348,495 348,750 348,997 349,031 349,073 349,139 349,125 349,098 349,075 349,056 349,039 349,025 349,019 349,011 349,001 348,998

12-05 288,971 385,858 388,714 389,318 389,450 389,518 389,541 389,587 389,603 389,629 389,661 389,700 389,714 389,666 389,655 389,646 389,635

06-06 277,363 342,786 345,172 345,666 346,072 346,100 346,212 346,211 346,237 346,270 346,267 346,274 346,336 346,334 346,335 346,343

12-06 305,977 397,143 400,350 400,975 401,155 401,349 401,389 401,411 401,353 401,326 401,338 401,333 401,346 401,360 401,355

06-07 321,914 395,348 398,607 399,174 399,320 399,404 399,472 399,547 399,606 399,602 399,606 399,604 399,600 399,620

12-07 318,711 421,455 424,801 425,194 425,390 425,584 425,665 425,737 425,812 425,918 425,942 425,954 425,978

06-08 335,818 405,959 408,927 409,334 409,436 409,988 410,012 410,011 410,076 410,098 410,110 410,130

12-08 324,495 432,203 434,862 435,349 435,450 435,501 435,540 435,561 435,623 435,640 435,656

06-09 332,671 402,097 404,380 404,643 404,707 404,738 404,843 404,972 404,978 404,972

12-09 335,509 421,818 423,842 424,195 424,456 424,612 424,562 424,608 424,640

06-10 324,230 395,792 398,329 398,789 399,031 399,208 399,395 399,514

12-10 355,060 450,197 453,367 453,938 454,261 454,548 454,622

06-11 332,509 407,835 410,109 410,360 410,569 410,745

12-11 337,356 428,492 430,795 431,565 431,745

06-12 318,140 383,906 386,473 387,020

12-12 349,044 439,151 441,653

06-13 348,495 424,937

12-13 384,320

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.242 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.292 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.197 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.262 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.187 1.005 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.294 1.005 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.219 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.335 1.007 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.236 1.007 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.298 1.008 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.228 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.322 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.209 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.332 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.209 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.257 1.005 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.221 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.268 1.007 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000

06-11 1.227 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000

12-11 1.270 1.005 1.002 1.000

06-12 1.207 1.007 1.001

12-12 1.258 1.006

06-13 1.219

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.252 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.241 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.239 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.251 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.242 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.243 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.251 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.242 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.239 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.242 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.251 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-DC_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:39 PM






06-02 100,786 103,103 103,035 103,046 103,020 102,987 102,972 102,958 102,953 102,955 102,946 102,946 102,944 102,943 102,943 102,941 102,940 102,941 102,941 102,942 102,940 102,940 102,940 102,941

12-02 108,320 107,908 107,826 107,774 107,705 107,719 107,665 107,647 107,636 107,624 107,612 107,596 107,608 107,610 107,603 107,600 107,599 107,599 107,599 107,597 107,597 107,599 107,599

06-03 104,514 104,213 104,140 103,953 103,945 103,842 103,809 103,795 103,742 103,717 103,705 103,701 103,701 103,699 103,698 103,697 103,700 103,700 103,699 103,700 103,700 103,700

12-03 91,027 91,301 91,358 91,353 91,299 91,287 91,271 91,255 91,241 91,235 91,233 91,232 91,227 91,224 91,224 91,222 91,219 91,221 91,221 91,221 91,219

06-04 87,718 89,414 89,551 89,433 89,438 89,431 89,414 89,391 89,392 89,384 89,378 89,380 89,379 89,379 89,381 89,380 89,378 89,371 89,364 89,363

12-04 85,223 89,543 89,416 89,407 89,412 89,385 89,379 89,376 89,373 89,373 89,372 89,369 89,373 89,372 89,370 89,370 89,372 89,369 89,365

06-05 84,346 87,606 87,636 87,628 87,608 87,597 87,588 87,592 87,590 87,588 87,586 87,588 87,582 87,575 87,575 87,573 87,567 87,565

12-05 86,847 92,072 92,125 92,134 92,109 92,099 92,105 92,095 92,099 92,100 92,100 92,103 92,108 92,098 92,096 92,095 92,094

06-06 81,366 83,959 84,112 84,104 84,124 84,136 84,135 84,130 84,124 84,131 84,131 84,129 84,131 84,133 84,131 84,133

12-06 89,340 93,665 93,742 93,758 93,788 93,801 93,801 93,784 93,777 93,778 93,778 93,779 93,778 93,778 93,776

06-07 91,105 94,134 94,192 94,251 94,268 94,265 94,250 94,245 94,249 94,244 94,250 94,248 94,249 94,246

12-07 92,511 95,746 96,015 96,011 96,005 95,979 95,978 95,981 95,981 95,981 95,977 95,980 95,978

06-08 94,043 97,692 97,882 97,831 97,804 97,791 97,786 97,786 97,790 97,795 97,790 97,789

12-08 95,001 99,596 99,697 99,645 99,632 99,621 99,621 99,622 99,615 99,613 99,611

06-09 95,646 97,832 97,941 97,915 97,925 97,919 97,915 97,918 97,908 97,899

12-09 93,604 96,940 97,080 97,090 97,097 97,103 97,109 97,108 97,102

06-10 92,409 95,556 95,795 95,821 95,823 95,810 95,814 95,814

12-10 99,428 102,994 103,205 103,215 103,219 103,226 103,226

06-11 92,446 95,705 95,944 95,991 96,005 96,000

12-11 93,246 97,538 97,819 97,861 97,863

06-12 87,600 90,799 91,061 91,115

12-12 95,191 99,102 99,417

06-13 92,887 96,414

12-13 102,640

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.023 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 0.996 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.997 0.999 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.003 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.019 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.051 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.039 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.060 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.032 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.048 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.033 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.035 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.039 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.048 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.023 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.036 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.034 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.036 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.035 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.046 1.003 1.000 1.000

06-12 1.037 1.003 1.001

12-12 1.041 1.003

06-13 1.038

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.033 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.039 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.040 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.033 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.037 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.038 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.032 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.039 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.040 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.041 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.040 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 1.044 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.044 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-DC_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:39 PM






06-02 82,957 101,982 102,787 102,897 102,931 102,934 102,936 102,936 102,938 102,939 102,937 102,937 102,938 102,940 102,939 102,939 102,938 102,939 102,939 102,939 102,939 102,939 102,939 102,939

12-02 83,783 106,610 107,416 107,561 107,581 107,600 107,607 107,607 107,606 107,602 107,599 107,595 107,599 107,598 107,598 107,599 107,598 107,599 107,597 107,597 107,597 107,597 107,597

06-03 86,667 102,800 103,574 103,653 103,684 103,693 103,703 103,702 103,699 103,696 103,696 103,694 103,694 103,695 103,693 103,696 103,697 103,698 103,699 103,699 103,699 103,699

12-03 71,779 90,511 91,113 91,180 91,206 91,217 91,221 91,223 91,226 91,225 91,227 91,227 91,224 91,221 91,220 91,216 91,216 91,217 91,217 91,217 91,217

06-04 74,755 88,660 89,245 89,322 89,353 89,359 89,376 89,378 89,382 89,380 89,376 89,377 89,377 89,378 89,379 89,379 89,377 89,370 89,364 89,363

12-04 67,779 88,651 89,209 89,301 89,324 89,348 89,356 89,365 89,367 89,367 89,364 89,364 89,368 89,367 89,367 89,367 89,368 89,368 89,364

06-05 71,149 86,811 87,436 87,525 87,556 87,572 87,578 87,581 87,581 87,582 87,581 87,582 87,578 87,572 87,571 87,569 87,565 87,564

12-05 67,695 91,264 91,931 92,049 92,064 92,072 92,080 92,084 92,089 92,097 92,099 92,101 92,103 92,096 92,094 92,095 92,094

06-06 66,899 83,174 83,954 84,052 84,092 84,110 84,117 84,119 84,122 84,127 84,127 84,127 84,129 84,129 84,130 84,130

12-06 70,909 92,814 93,594 93,696 93,746 93,769 93,780 93,779 93,774 93,774 93,774 93,775 93,776 93,777 93,776

06-07 75,981 93,353 94,053 94,188 94,220 94,233 94,236 94,239 94,242 94,240 94,244 94,243 94,244 94,244

12-07 71,786 94,942 95,825 95,924 95,952 95,959 95,971 95,971 95,973 95,975 95,975 95,974 95,975

06-08 79,693 96,804 97,661 97,754 97,769 97,775 97,778 97,780 97,784 97,788 97,787 97,789

12-08 73,877 98,674 99,506 99,590 99,599 99,602 99,604 99,604 99,606 99,607 99,606

06-09 80,022 97,084 97,833 97,881 97,892 97,899 97,896 97,896 97,893 97,892

12-09 77,254 96,440 96,969 97,040 97,059 97,073 97,084 97,088 97,090

06-10 78,315 95,039 95,677 95,768 95,780 95,789 95,796 95,802

12-10 80,294 102,269 103,050 103,153 103,182 103,197 103,204

06-11 77,247 95,164 95,861 95,933 95,970 95,976

12-11 75,465 97,091 97,706 97,817 97,844

06-12 74,794 90,328 90,984 91,080

12-12 78,211 98,604 99,313

06-13 78,582 96,007

12-13 81,674

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.229 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.272 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.186 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.261 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.186 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.308 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.220 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.348 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.243 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.309 1.008 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.229 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.323 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.215 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.336 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.213 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.248 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.214 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.274 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.232 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.287 1.006 1.001 1.000

06-12 1.208 1.007 1.001

12-12 1.261 1.007

06-13 1.222

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.253 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.247 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.244 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.252 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.242 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.247 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.252 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.247 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.244 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.247 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.257 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-TPL-DC_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:39 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Direct Compensation





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 140 129 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3,891 4,281 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.61% 3.01% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 157 137 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,327 4,482 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.64% 3.06% 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 154 129 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,273 4,316 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.59% 3.00% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 139 138 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,513 4,519 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.07% 3.05% 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 133 130 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,333 4,351 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.07% 2.99% 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 135 138 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,498 4,556 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.00% 3.04% 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 129 131 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,352 4,387 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.96% 2.98% 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 138 139 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,620 4,593 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.99% 3.03% 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 123 131 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,454 4,422 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.77% 2.97% 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 138 140 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,631 4,630 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.98% 3.02% 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 140 132 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,601 4,458 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.04% 2.96% 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 144 141 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,816 4,668 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.99% 3.01% 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 139 133 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,513 4,495 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.08% 2.95% 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 143 141 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,706 4,706 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.05% 3.00% 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 136 133 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,447 4,531 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.06% 2.94% 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 139 142 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,702 4,744 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.95% 2.99% 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 132 134 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,446 4,568 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.97% 2.93% 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 146 143 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,699 4,783 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.10% 2.98% 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-06 0.0% 136 135 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,637 4,605 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.94% 2.92% 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-12 0.0% 139 143 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,792 4,822 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.90% 2.97% 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-06 0.0% 126 135 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,592 4,643 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.73% 2.91% 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-12 0.0% 139 144 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,802 4,861 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.90% 2.96% 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-06 0.0% 137 136 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,772 4,681 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.87% 2.90% 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-12 0.0% 154 145 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,008 4,901 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.08% 2.95% 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(26) Indicated Trend 0.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend 0.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend (0.2%) 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


(28) t-value => observed 1.9 3.9 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed 6.3 5.5 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed (1.5) 1.4 n/a n/a n/a

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a







(36) Selected Trend 0.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend 0.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pre-reform annual trend 0.8% 0.8% Pre-reform annual trend 0.8% 0.8% Pre-reform annual trend 0.0% 0.0%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend 0.8% 0.8% Post-reform annual trend 0.8% 0.8% Post-reform annual trend 0.0% 0.0%

See Segment III - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-DC_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 3:14 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Direct Compensation





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 538,547 2,855,325 8.9% 140 3,891 3.61%

2002-12 616,457 2,956,207 8.9% 157 4,327 3.64%

2003-06 647,941 2,886,800 8.4% 154 4,273 3.59% 9.4% 9.8% (0.4%)

2003-12 701,684 2,968,998 8.4% 139 4,513 3.07% (11.9%) 4.3% (15.6%)

2004-06 719,353 2,911,747 10.0% 133 4,333 3.07% (13.4%) 1.4% (14.6%)

2004-12 747,502 2,983,277 10.0% 135 4,498 3.00% (2.8%) (0.3%) (2.5%)

2005-06 726,497 2,954,704 9.2% 129 4,352 2.96% (3.0%) 0.5% (3.4%)

2005-12 739,928 3,079,035 9.2% 138 4,620 2.99% 2.6% 2.7% (0.2%)

2006-06 720,515 3,038,243 8.2% 123 4,454 2.77% (4.4%) 2.3% (6.6%)

2006-12 735,779 3,144,597 8.2% 138 4,631 2.98% (0.1%) 0.2% (0.3%)

2007-06 713,087 3,099,303 8.5% 140 4,601 3.04% 13.4% 3.3% 9.8%

2007-12 725,479 3,207,925 8.5% 144 4,816 2.99% 4.3% 4.0% 0.3%

2008-06 720,995 3,179,685 7.6% 139 4,513 3.08% (0.8%) (1.9%) 1.1%

2008-12 743,213 3,266,938 7.6% 143 4,706 3.05% (0.4%) (2.3%) 1.9%

2009-06 720,708 3,198,405 7.5% 136 4,447 3.06% (1.9%) (1.5%) (0.5%)

2009-12 730,453 3,293,102 7.5% 139 4,702 2.95% (3.4%) (0.1%) (3.3%)

2010-06 713,178 3,228,048 6.6% 132 4,446 2.97% (3.0%) (0.0%) (3.0%)

2010-12 732,083 3,331,750 6.6% 146 4,699 3.10% 5.0% (0.1%) 5.1%

2011-06 729,158 3,270,433 8.3% 136 4,637 2.94% 3.1% 4.3% (1.1%)

2011-12 752,028 3,373,182 8.3% 139 4,792 2.90% (4.5%) 2.0% (6.4%)

2012-06 746,011 3,333,584 8.0% 126 4,592 2.73% (7.8%) (1.0%) (6.9%)

2012-12 774,055 3,428,081 8.0% 139 4,802 2.90% 0.2% 0.2% (0.0%)

2013-06 771,232 3,369,797 8.0% 137 4,772 2.87% 9.1% 3.9% 5.0%

2013-12 809,387 3,478,131 8.0% 154 5,008 3.08% 10.8% 4.3% 6.2%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment III - Page 8b.

(4) From GISA.

(5)-(7) From Segment III - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-DC_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 4:06 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Direct Compensation

($000)




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 367,841 367,841 102,941 1.000 1.000 1.000 367,841 367,841 102,941 367,841 102,941

2002-12 427,485 427,485 107,599 1.000 1.000 1.000 427,485 427,485 107,599 427,485 107,599

2003-06 408,808 408,808 103,700 1.000 1.000 1.000 408,808 408,808 103,700 408,808 103,700

2003-12 379,787 379,787 91,219 1.000 1.000 1.000 379,787 379,787 91,219 379,787 91,219

2004-06 351,969 351,968 89,363 1.000 1.000 1.000 351,969 351,968 89,363 351,969 89,363

2004-12 365,436 365,425 89,365 1.000 1.000 1.000 365,436 365,425 89,365 365,436 89,365

2005-06 349,004 348,998 87,565 1.000 1.000 1.000 349,004 348,998 87,565 349,004 87,565

2005-12 389,636 389,635 92,094 1.000 1.000 1.000 389,636 389,635 92,094 389,636 92,094

2006-06 346,357 346,343 84,133 1.000 1.000 1.000 346,357 346,343 84,133 346,357 84,133

2006-12 401,377 401,355 93,776 1.000 1.000 1.000 401,377 401,355 93,776 401,377 93,776

2007-06 399,620 399,620 94,246 1.000 1.000 1.000 399,620 399,620 94,246 399,620 94,246

2007-12 426,002 425,978 95,978 1.000 1.000 1.000 426,002 425,978 95,978 426,002 95,978

2008-06 410,132 410,130 97,789 1.000 1.000 1.000 410,132 410,130 97,789 410,132 97,789

2008-12 435,659 435,656 99,611 1.000 1.000 1.000 435,659 435,656 99,611 435,659 99,611

2009-06 405,005 404,972 97,899 1.000 1.000 1.000 405,005 404,972 97,899 405,005 97,899

2009-12 424,762 424,640 97,102 1.000 1.000 1.000 424,762 424,640 97,102 424,762 97,102

2010-06 399,654 399,514 95,814 1.000 1.000 1.000 399,654 399,514 95,814 399,654 95,814

2010-12 455,038 454,622 103,226 1.000 1.000 1.000 455,038 454,622 103,226 455,038 103,226

2011-06 411,004 410,745 96,000 1.000 1.000 1.000 411,004 410,745 96,000 411,004 96,000

2011-12 433,023 431,745 97,863 1.000 1.000 1.000 433,023 431,745 97,863 433,023 97,863

2012-06 387,563 387,020 91,115 1.000 1.000 1.000 387,563 387,020 91,115 387,563 91,115

2012-12 442,222 441,653 99,417 1.000 1.001 1.000 442,222 442,174 99,417 442,222 99,417

2013-06 427,429 424,937 96,414 1.000 1.007 1.003 427,429 428,045 96,703 427,429 96,703

2013-12 481,982 384,320 102,640 1.031 1.251 1.044 496,924 480,833 107,114 496,924 107,114

Total 9,726,792 9,623,195 2,306,869 9,741,734 9,723,338 2,311,632 9,741,734 2,311,632

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment III - Page 3.





IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-DC_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:14 PM



Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - TPL - Direct Compensation




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 538,547 2,855,325 367,841 102,941 68.3% 129 3,573 3.61%

2002-12 616,457 2,956,207 427,485 107,599 69.3% 145 3,973 3.64%

2003-06 647,941 2,886,800 408,808 103,700 63.1% 142 3,942 3.59%

2003-12 701,684 2,968,998 379,787 91,219 54.1% 128 4,163 3.07%

2004-06 719,353 2,911,747 351,969 89,363 48.9% 121 3,939 3.07%

2004-12 747,502 2,983,277 365,436 89,365 48.9% 122 4,089 3.00%

2005-06 726,497 2,954,704 349,004 87,565 48.0% 118 3,986 2.96%

2005-12 739,928 3,079,035 389,636 92,094 52.7% 127 4,231 2.99%

2006-06 720,515 3,038,243 346,357 84,133 48.1% 114 4,117 2.77%

2006-12 735,779 3,144,597 401,377 93,776 54.6% 128 4,280 2.98%

2007-06 713,087 3,099,303 399,620 94,246 56.0% 129 4,240 3.04%

2007-12 725,479 3,207,925 426,002 95,978 58.7% 133 4,439 2.99%

2008-06 720,995 3,179,685 410,132 97,789 56.9% 129 4,194 3.08%

2008-12 743,213 3,266,938 435,659 99,611 58.6% 133 4,374 3.05%

2009-06 720,708 3,198,405 405,005 97,899 56.2% 127 4,137 3.06%

2009-12 730,453 3,293,102 424,762 97,102 58.2% 129 4,374 2.95%

2010-06 713,178 3,228,048 399,654 95,814 56.0% 124 4,171 2.97%

2010-12 732,083 3,331,750 455,038 103,226 62.2% 137 4,408 3.10%

2011-06 729,158 3,270,433 411,004 96,000 56.4% 126 4,281 2.94%

2011-12 752,028 3,373,182 433,023 97,863 57.6% 128 4,425 2.90%

2012-06 746,011 3,333,584 387,563 91,115 52.0% 116 4,254 2.73%

2012-12 774,055 3,428,081 442,222 99,417 57.1% 129 4,448 2.90%

2013-06 771,232 3,369,797 427,429 96,703 55.4% 127 4,420 2.87%

2013-12 809,387 3,478,131 496,924 107,114 61.4% 143 4,639 3.08%

Total 17,275,268 75,837,295 9,741,734 2,311,632 56.4% 128 4,214 3.05%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment III - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-TPL-DC_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:14 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment IV


AB - Disability Income


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


12-02 249,804 243,452 249,333 242,667 228,918 249,804 5,626 250,038 (234)

06-03 213,251 211,613 213,628 212,638 228,810 213,251 5,175 213,278 (27)

12-03 208,401 209,589 208,412 209,538 208,834 208,401 5,463 208,620 (219)

06-04 174,264 172,108 173,967 171,481 163,757 174,264 4,917 174,935 (672)

12-04 188,470 186,612 187,916 185,228 170,085 188,470 5,683 189,550 (1,080)

06-05 174,604 172,057 174,526 172,071 172,203 174,604 5,658 175,535 (931)

12-05 215,887 218,270 214,912 215,031 187,471 215,887 7,412 216,605 (718)

06-06 199,633 198,839 198,805 196,297 177,647 199,633 7,514 199,996 (363)

12-06 241,143 242,017 239,660 236,955 205,378 241,143 10,001 242,006 (863)

06-07 232,208 233,234 231,385 230,181 214,084 232,208 10,554 232,294 (86)

12-07 259,591 263,802 257,960 256,899 226,166 259,591 12,662 259,522 69

06-08 230,347 242,726 230,801 241,944 239,011 230,347 12,073 229,843 504

12-08 286,552 296,961 284,618 286,207 252,570 286,552 16,311 285,374 1,178

06-09 289,146 303,857 287,069 290,933 257,551 289,146 19,009 286,885 2,261

12-09 369,324 396,553 365,734 372,334 321,585 369,324 27,774 366,142 3,182

06-10 360,161 392,217 357,065 369,143 329,158 360,161 35,969 353,045 7,116

12-10 318,651 297,146 315,476 295,933 294,217 318,651 41,416 313,554 5,098

06-11 227,029 186,712 224,254 197,510 209,895 224,254 33,991 224,701 (446)

12-11 233,737 180,220 229,714 198,054 213,883 229,714 43,338 230,733 (1,019)

06-12 190,940 150,018 192,951 179,682 198,693 192,951 51,538 185,816 7,135

12-12 226,341 171,655 223,198 203,019 216,332 223,198 67,935 213,952 9,246

06-13 203,491 145,926 205,975 197,593 210,182 205,975 78,037 193,698 12,277

12-13 280,530 173,702 245,025 220,080 222,938 245,025 137,438 271,012 (25,987)

Total 5,767,440 5,483,223 5,706,666 5,576,221 5,360,149 5,726,490 649,484 5,711,069 15,421

GISA 5,711,069 5,711,069

Diff -0.98% 0.27%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (13) from Exhibit A - Segment IV, Page 2] x [Column (16) from Exhibit A - Segment IV, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DI_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:38 PM





NOT PRINTED





Year Exposure Reported Closed Selected Rate Method Rate TPL-DC Covg to DC TPL-DC Rate Counts Dev. Method B-F Method Severity

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16)


12-02 2,966,797 11,442 11,430 11,442 0.39% 0.39% 3.64% 10.60% 10.17% 0.37% 10,981 20,299 21,832 20,846

06-03 2,896,601 10,520 10,509 10,520 0.36% 0.36% 3.59% 10.11% 10.17% 0.37% 10,581 19,188 20,271 21,624

12-03 2,979,855 9,426 9,401 9,426 0.32% 0.32% 3.07% 10.30% 10.17% 0.31% 9,310 21,232 22,109 22,430

06-04 2,925,524 7,224 7,205 7,224 0.25% 0.25% 3.07% 8.05% 7.84% 0.24% 7,038 22,741 24,125 23,267

12-04 3,001,194 7,277 7,249 7,277 0.24% 0.24% 3.00% 8.09% 9.47% 7.84% 0.23% 7,047 24,498 25,899 24,135

06-05 2,960,882 6,459 6,442 6,459 0.22% 0.22% 2.96% 7.36% 9.08% 7.84% 0.23% 6,878 25,407 27,033 25,035

12-05 3,078,987 7,511 7,479 7,511 0.24% 0.24% 2.99% 8.16% 8.68% 7.84% 0.23% 7,219 27,763 28,743 25,969

06-06 3,038,078 6,691 6,666 6,691 0.22% 0.22% 2.77% 7.95% 8.32% 7.84% 0.22% 6,595 28,390 29,836 26,938

12-06 3,144,169 7,448 7,422 7,448 0.24% 0.24% 2.98% 7.94% 7.93% 7.84% 0.23% 7,350 31,039 32,377 27,943

06-07 3,098,545 7,091 7,064 7,091 0.23% 0.23% 3.04% 7.53% 7.84% 7.84% 0.24% 7,386 31,422 32,747 28,985

12-07 3,207,340 7,687 7,662 7,687 0.24% 0.24% 2.99% 8.01% 7.82% 7.84% 0.23% 7,522 32,773 33,770 30,067

06-08 3,178,856 7,175 7,126 7,175 0.23% 0.23% 3.08% 7.33% 7.82% 7.84% 0.24% 7,663 32,412 32,103 31,188

12-08 3,266,401 7,970 7,916 7,970 0.24% 0.24% 3.05% 7.99% 7.79% 7.84% 0.24% 7,807 35,698 35,954 32,352

06-09 3,198,648 7,686 7,571 7,686 0.24% 0.24% 3.06% 7.82% 7.77% 7.84% 0.24% 7,675 38,200 37,622 33,559

12-09 3,293,403 9,265 9,021 9,265 0.28% 0.28% 2.95% 9.50% 8.03% 9.51% 0.28% 9,238 41,842 39,863 34,811

06-10 3,228,358 9,533 9,059 9,533 0.30% 0.29% 2.97% 9.91% 8.43% 9.51% 0.28% 9,116 41,196 37,780 36,109

12-10 3,335,641 9,483 8,801 9,483 0.28% 0.28% 3.10% 9.13% 8.61% 9.51% 0.29% 9,831 32,130 33,602 29,926

06-11 3,280,780 7,706 7,022 7,706 0.23% 0.23% 2.94% 7.93% 8.71% 7.82% 0.23% 7,535 25,306 29,460 27,856

12-11 3,385,888 8,165 7,484 8,165 0.24% 0.24% 2.90% 8.18% 8.74% 7.82% 0.23% 7,686 22,578 28,628 27,828

06-12 3,342,058 6,822 6,289 6,822 0.20% 0.20% 2.73% 7.33% 8.66% 7.82% 0.21% 7,147 21,814 27,988 27,800

12-12 3,432,868 7,671 7,138 7,671 0.22% 0.22% 2.90% 7.62% 8.35% 7.82% 0.23% 7,789 21,482 29,507 27,772

06-13 3,373,945 7,221 6,516 7,221 0.21% 0.21% 2.87% 7.35% 7.92% 7.82% 0.22% 7,576 19,937 28,179 27,745

12-13 3,482,060 9,235 7,357 7,357 0.21% 0.25% 2.95% 8.54% 7.82% 7.82% 0.23% 8,043 20,996 30,375 27,717

Total 75,957,675 196,687 189,804 194,809 195,503

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(7) / (8)].



(12) = [(8) * (11)].

(13) = [(2) x (12)].


(15) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment IV, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DI_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:38 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 102,762 134,638 138,644 142,973 152,567 159,566 165,901 171,092 177,830 184,499 187,169 188,346 188,875 185,879 187,142 188,177 188,197 187,513 187,504 188,229 189,257 189,584 189,991 189,946

12-02 127,747 161,485 164,813 176,898 187,202 199,238 209,918 219,396 228,681 234,008 238,603 241,093 240,107 240,077 239,457 238,448 239,189 240,431 239,995 244,285 244,951 243,829 244,177

06-03 114,167 137,137 147,520 155,876 169,837 178,663 189,184 197,552 203,736 207,766 211,669 211,510 210,706 209,457 207,570 207,423 207,531 206,454 208,896 208,122 208,411 208,076

12-03 95,182 133,175 140,682 149,929 164,671 176,990 185,071 192,073 196,507 198,137 201,996 202,848 202,808 202,036 201,226 202,075 201,743 203,016 203,498 203,817 202,938

06-04 74,962 104,451 113,384 122,330 135,994 145,944 154,508 161,620 163,950 165,801 167,799 169,136 165,175 165,694 167,103 167,686 168,888 168,975 168,485 169,347

12-04 78,677 111,674 119,788 131,746 145,597 156,569 170,876 177,914 182,662 183,457 182,752 179,258 177,849 178,757 178,835 180,607 181,922 181,195 182,787

06-05 73,641 100,455 109,790 119,453 134,627 147,623 156,549 163,688 168,216 169,918 162,076 163,160 164,843 162,753 164,011 165,861 167,017 168,946

12-05 80,955 123,156 137,407 152,492 170,185 181,472 191,376 199,430 202,461 200,394 201,155 201,692 201,668 203,671 206,099 207,909 208,475

06-06 73,919 113,396 130,447 142,620 156,958 169,143 181,254 184,731 185,891 184,836 187,469 186,532 188,511 190,541 190,620 192,119

12-06 97,184 149,400 165,052 179,456 198,199 212,807 220,842 220,211 220,781 221,567 220,727 223,990 227,468 227,288 231,143

06-07 88,210 138,270 154,513 168,470 188,091 196,294 201,696 206,282 210,514 212,165 216,352 220,059 220,022 221,655

12-07 96,971 155,986 177,127 193,880 205,937 217,725 222,704 227,782 230,740 237,661 242,179 244,428 246,928

06-08 90,576 156,410 175,704 188,027 199,185 201,525 205,768 206,695 213,465 213,730 218,217 218,274

12-08 104,045 189,471 212,061 226,510 237,428 244,562 246,196 254,723 261,826 269,256 270,241

06-09 109,795 208,100 238,072 238,127 241,326 239,490 247,131 256,589 263,287 270,137

12-09 140,113 284,370 307,971 306,154 309,883 310,772 323,533 333,912 341,550

06-10 146,397 281,979 307,305 296,752 292,244 303,179 313,710 324,192

12-10 126,887 215,843 222,355 223,796 246,979 265,321 277,236

06-11 82,740 134,830 142,556 156,121 174,629 190,263

12-11 86,452 139,850 152,436 169,493 186,376

06-12 71,545 115,660 127,962 141,413

12-12 85,018 139,803 155,263

06-13 76,210 127,938

12-13 107,587

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.310 1.030 1.031 1.067 1.046 1.040 1.031 1.039 1.038 1.014 1.006 1.003 0.984 1.007 1.006 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.004 1.005 1.002 1.002 1.000

12-02 1.264 1.021 1.073 1.058 1.064 1.054 1.045 1.042 1.023 1.020 1.010 0.996 1.000 0.997 0.996 1.003 1.005 0.998 1.018 1.003 0.995 1.001

06-03 1.201 1.076 1.057 1.090 1.052 1.059 1.044 1.031 1.020 1.019 0.999 0.996 0.994 0.991 0.999 1.001 0.995 1.012 0.996 1.001 0.998

12-03 1.399 1.056 1.066 1.098 1.075 1.046 1.038 1.023 1.008 1.019 1.004 1.000 0.996 0.996 1.004 0.998 1.006 1.002 1.002 0.996

06-04 1.393 1.086 1.079 1.112 1.073 1.059 1.046 1.014 1.011 1.012 1.008 0.977 1.003 1.009 1.003 1.007 1.001 0.997 1.005

12-04 1.419 1.073 1.100 1.105 1.075 1.091 1.041 1.027 1.004 0.996 0.981 0.992 1.005 1.000 1.010 1.007 0.996 1.009

06-05 1.364 1.093 1.088 1.127 1.097 1.060 1.046 1.028 1.010 0.954 1.007 1.010 0.987 1.008 1.011 1.007 1.012

12-05 1.521 1.116 1.110 1.116 1.066 1.055 1.042 1.015 0.990 1.004 1.003 1.000 1.010 1.012 1.009 1.003

06-06 1.534 1.150 1.093 1.101 1.078 1.072 1.019 1.006 0.994 1.014 0.995 1.011 1.011 1.000 1.008

12-06 1.537 1.105 1.087 1.104 1.074 1.038 0.997 1.003 1.004 0.996 1.015 1.016 0.999 1.017

06-07 1.568 1.117 1.090 1.116 1.044 1.028 1.023 1.021 1.008 1.020 1.017 1.000 1.007

12-07 1.609 1.136 1.095 1.062 1.057 1.023 1.023 1.013 1.030 1.019 1.009 1.010

06-08 1.727 1.123 1.070 1.059 1.012 1.021 1.005 1.033 1.001 1.021 1.000

12-08 1.821 1.119 1.068 1.048 1.030 1.007 1.035 1.028 1.028 1.004

06-09 1.895 1.144 1.000 1.013 0.992 1.032 1.038 1.026 1.026

12-09 2.030 1.083 0.994 1.012 1.003 1.041 1.032 1.023

06-10 1.926 1.090 0.966 0.985 1.037 1.035 1.033

12-10 1.701 1.030 1.006 1.104 1.074 1.045

06-11 1.630 1.057 1.095 1.119 1.090

12-11 1.618 1.090 1.112 1.100

06-12 1.617 1.106 1.105

12-12 1.644 1.111

06-13 1.679

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.583 1.091 1.066 1.080 1.055 1.045 1.032 1.023 1.013 1.008 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.004 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.005 1.001 0.999 1.002 1.000

Latest 6 1.648 1.081 1.046 1.055 1.038 1.030 1.028 1.024 1.016 1.012 1.007 1.008 1.003 1.008 1.008 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.005 1.001 0.999 1.002 1.000

Latest 4 1.639 1.091 1.080 1.077 1.051 1.038 1.035 1.027 1.021 1.016 1.010 1.009 1.007 1.009 1.009 1.006 1.004 1.005 1.005 1.001 0.999 1.002 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.580 1.092 1.069 1.082 1.056 1.044 1.033 1.023 1.013 1.011 1.005 1.002 1.000 1.004 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.002 1.004 1.002 0.998 1.002 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.700 1.090 1.045 1.056 1.036 1.030 1.025 1.019 1.010 1.009 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.002 1.004 1.002 0.998 1.002 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.643 1.086 1.050 1.057 1.036 1.032 1.031 1.024 1.016 1.014 1.007 1.008 1.005 1.007 1.008 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.004 1.002 0.998 1.002 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.599 1.091 1.055 1.071 1.050 1.042 1.031 1.023 1.014 1.009 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.004 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.005 1.001 0.998 1.002 1.000

Latest 6 1.652 1.078 1.026 1.044 1.034 1.031 1.029 1.024 1.017 1.012 1.007 1.008 1.004 1.008 1.008 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.005 1.001 0.998 1.002 1.000

Latest 4 1.639 1.091 1.071 1.064 1.045 1.038 1.034 1.027 1.022 1.015 1.010 1.009 1.007 1.010 1.009 1.006 1.004 1.005 1.006 1.001 0.998 1.002 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.719 1.088 1.033 1.077 1.049 1.042 1.020 1.018 1.005 1.010 1.004 1.005 1.000 1.001 1.005 1.005 0.997 1.003 1.001 1.005 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.019

GISA 2013-12 1.664 1.099 1.049 1.061 1.048 1.044 1.039 1.016 1.009 1.006 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.001 1.006 1.002 1.000 1.002 1.004 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.003 1.021

KPMG 2013-12 1.639 1.091 1.080 1.077 1.051 1.038 1.035 1.027 1.010 1.009 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.021

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 2.518 1.465 1.346 1.303 1.210 1.153 1.107 1.085 1.066 1.061 1.051 1.047 1.042 1.042 1.041 1.036 1.031 1.034 1.031 1.030 1.025 1.023 1.021 1.019

GISA 2013-12 2.519 1.514 1.378 1.314 1.238 1.181 1.131 1.089 1.072 1.062 1.056 1.053 1.051 1.048 1.047 1.041 1.039 1.039 1.037 1.033 1.028 1.025 1.024 1.021

KPMG 2013-12 2.607 1.591 1.458 1.350 1.254 1.193 1.149 1.111 1.081 1.070 1.060 1.055 1.051 1.048 1.043 1.039 1.036 1.033 1.031 1.029 1.027 1.025 1.023 1.021

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DI_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:38 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 22,255 63,104 82,562 95,158 103,960 111,915 120,695 129,541 137,851 145,536 151,183 156,246 160,799 163,584 167,286 171,823 173,989 175,597 178,348 180,489 181,568 182,707 183,461 183,951

12-02 25,772 73,124 95,356 110,022 121,661 133,276 144,394 155,461 166,892 175,350 184,771 190,932 198,112 205,368 210,603 215,274 217,264 219,457 222,119 224,235 226,132 228,625 230,304

06-03 24,959 64,717 83,658 97,474 110,405 121,191 131,010 142,010 149,747 158,915 167,082 173,625 179,053 183,723 186,595 189,134 191,455 193,403 195,022 196,137 197,165 199,008

12-03 19,532 52,967 71,273 86,225 99,954 112,278 123,029 133,506 143,919 150,296 158,166 165,515 171,381 175,484 180,455 183,459 186,460 188,462 190,957 193,306 195,336

06-04 15,100 39,696 54,103 66,445 76,553 87,675 96,715 106,451 113,808 123,045 129,312 136,042 143,012 147,939 150,169 152,137 154,443 157,033 157,911 159,194

12-04 12,802 38,043 53,872 67,382 80,048 90,831 102,059 113,109 123,367 131,817 140,248 147,184 153,447 157,768 161,187 165,200 167,103 168,184 170,980

06-05 12,747 34,952 48,658 60,611 72,556 84,386 93,670 103,772 113,252 121,685 127,755 133,941 138,417 143,043 145,931 148,616 152,942 155,778

12-05 13,542 41,231 59,909 76,815 92,542 105,537 117,850 129,297 142,324 154,176 162,582 169,523 175,736 179,853 187,070 191,898 195,310

06-06 12,401 37,927 56,576 72,504 86,814 99,856 111,358 122,800 134,675 144,058 151,967 158,151 161,001 166,490 170,458 174,990

12-06 14,911 48,014 70,867 89,955 108,014 122,903 138,328 153,654 166,624 176,905 184,239 191,036 197,378 203,076 208,581

06-07 14,840 46,392 68,011 87,452 103,439 118,308 130,274 144,222 153,042 161,724 173,246 182,607 190,415 196,056

12-07 15,138 52,388 79,718 101,069 119,986 137,049 152,071 166,774 178,090 189,695 198,700 207,474 215,417

06-08 15,666 51,438 76,591 97,583 114,168 128,792 140,331 152,810 162,911 176,549 185,319 191,657

12-08 15,859 62,732 96,368 122,155 143,058 159,305 174,638 188,364 202,256 215,166 225,022

06-09 18,926 68,569 104,098 132,821 152,301 167,156 181,227 194,667 206,717 219,049

12-09 20,485 86,165 135,708 172,684 197,419 214,993 233,907 250,468 268,444

06-10 20,000 84,121 133,632 166,541 191,096 209,610 228,082 248,702

12-10 17,899 61,922 89,546 111,824 133,121 152,703 174,068

06-11 10,608 34,421 50,496 66,643 82,327 99,746

12-11 10,500 34,725 51,453 68,208 84,740

06-12 8,963 28,825 43,445 58,592

12-12 9,306 31,947 51,150

06-13 8,028 28,590

12-13 10,082

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 2.835 1.308 1.153 1.092 1.077 1.078 1.073 1.064 1.056 1.039 1.033 1.029 1.017 1.023 1.027 1.013 1.009 1.016 1.012 1.006 1.006 1.004 1.003

12-02 2.837 1.304 1.154 1.106 1.095 1.083 1.077 1.074 1.051 1.054 1.033 1.038 1.037 1.025 1.022 1.009 1.010 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.011 1.007

06-03 2.593 1.293 1.165 1.133 1.098 1.081 1.084 1.054 1.061 1.051 1.039 1.031 1.026 1.016 1.014 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.009

12-03 2.712 1.346 1.210 1.159 1.123 1.096 1.085 1.078 1.044 1.052 1.046 1.035 1.024 1.028 1.017 1.016 1.011 1.013 1.012 1.011

06-04 2.629 1.363 1.228 1.152 1.145 1.103 1.101 1.069 1.081 1.051 1.052 1.051 1.034 1.015 1.013 1.015 1.017 1.006 1.008

12-04 2.972 1.416 1.251 1.188 1.135 1.124 1.108 1.091 1.068 1.064 1.049 1.043 1.028 1.022 1.025 1.012 1.006 1.017

06-05 2.742 1.392 1.246 1.197 1.163 1.110 1.108 1.091 1.074 1.050 1.048 1.033 1.033 1.020 1.018 1.029 1.019

12-05 3.045 1.453 1.282 1.205 1.140 1.117 1.097 1.101 1.083 1.055 1.043 1.037 1.023 1.040 1.026 1.018

06-06 3.058 1.492 1.282 1.197 1.150 1.115 1.103 1.097 1.070 1.055 1.041 1.018 1.034 1.024 1.027

12-06 3.220 1.476 1.269 1.201 1.138 1.126 1.111 1.084 1.062 1.041 1.037 1.033 1.029 1.027

06-07 3.126 1.466 1.286 1.183 1.144 1.101 1.107 1.061 1.057 1.071 1.054 1.043 1.030

12-07 3.461 1.522 1.268 1.187 1.142 1.110 1.097 1.068 1.065 1.047 1.044 1.038

06-08 3.283 1.489 1.274 1.170 1.128 1.090 1.089 1.066 1.084 1.050 1.034

12-08 3.956 1.536 1.268 1.171 1.114 1.096 1.079 1.074 1.064 1.046

06-09 3.623 1.518 1.276 1.147 1.098 1.084 1.074 1.062 1.060

12-09 4.206 1.575 1.272 1.143 1.089 1.088 1.071 1.072

06-10 4.206 1.589 1.246 1.147 1.097 1.088 1.090

12-10 3.459 1.446 1.249 1.190 1.147 1.140

06-11 3.245 1.467 1.320 1.235 1.212

12-11 3.307 1.482 1.326 1.242

06-12 3.216 1.507 1.349

12-12 3.433 1.601

06-13 3.561

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 3.249 1.456 1.256 1.172 1.128 1.102 1.091 1.075 1.065 1.052 1.043 1.036 1.029 1.024 1.021 1.016 1.012 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.009 1.006 1.003

Latest 6 3.370 1.515 1.294 1.184 1.126 1.098 1.083 1.067 1.065 1.052 1.042 1.034 1.030 1.025 1.021 1.017 1.012 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.009 1.006 1.003

Latest 4 3.379 1.514 1.311 1.204 1.136 1.100 1.078 1.068 1.068 1.054 1.042 1.033 1.029 1.028 1.024 1.018 1.013 1.011 1.009 1.008 1.009 1.006 1.003

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 3.235 1.457 1.256 1.173 1.126 1.101 1.091 1.075 1.066 1.051 1.043 1.036 1.029 1.023 1.021 1.014 1.011 1.012 1.010 1.007 1.009 1.006 1.003

Latest 8x1 3.535 1.523 1.285 1.177 1.121 1.095 1.089 1.071 1.067 1.050 1.044 1.038 1.030 1.023 1.020 1.014 1.011 1.012 1.010 1.007 1.009 1.006 1.003

Latest 6x1 3.361 1.511 1.292 1.180 1.114 1.090 1.083 1.067 1.063 1.049 1.041 1.035 1.030 1.023 1.021 1.015 1.012 1.012 1.010 1.007 1.009 1.006 1.003

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 3.237 1.457 1.250 1.166 1.122 1.100 1.089 1.074 1.065 1.052 1.042 1.036 1.029 1.024 1.021 1.015 1.011 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.009 1.006 1.003

Latest 6 3.375 1.521 1.278 1.170 1.116 1.097 1.082 1.068 1.065 1.051 1.042 1.034 1.029 1.025 1.021 1.017 1.012 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.009 1.006 1.003

Latest 4 3.372 1.513 1.299 1.189 1.121 1.098 1.079 1.069 1.067 1.053 1.042 1.034 1.029 1.028 1.024 1.018 1.013 1.011 1.009 1.008 1.009 1.006 1.003


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 3.375 1.521 1.311 1.204 1.136 1.097 1.082 1.068 1.065 1.051 1.042 1.034 1.029 1.025 1.021 1.017 1.012 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.009 1.006 1.003 1.054

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 17.229 5.104 3.356 2.560 2.127 1.872 1.707 1.577 1.477 1.387 1.320 1.266 1.225 1.190 1.160 1.136 1.118 1.104 1.091 1.081 1.073 1.063 1.057 1.054

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DI_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:38 PM






06-02 10,593 11,139 10,495 10,191 10,117 10,066 10,045 9,979 9,982 9,985 9,979 9,981 9,977 9,973 9,979 9,980 9,977 9,980 9,980 9,977 9,976 9,977 9,979 9,979

12-02 11,987 12,725 11,881 11,626 11,526 11,535 11,449 11,461 11,454 11,438 11,450 11,442 11,452 11,455 11,445 11,440 11,434 11,437 11,436 11,438 11,438 11,441 11,442

06-03 11,725 11,560 11,006 10,766 10,688 10,536 10,553 10,519 10,493 10,495 10,489 10,493 10,493 10,488 10,491 10,493 10,493 10,488 10,489 10,495 10,507 10,520

12-03 9,646 10,450 9,957 9,676 9,470 9,498 9,472 9,423 9,415 9,426 9,424 9,432 9,425 9,424 9,426 9,425 9,422 9,422 9,423 9,428 9,426

06-04 7,308 7,952 7,669 7,275 7,263 7,244 7,226 7,225 7,218 7,224 7,236 7,222 7,213 7,221 7,218 7,221 7,222 7,223 7,223 7,224

12-04 6,880 8,142 7,430 7,357 7,342 7,262 7,274 7,269 7,270 7,273 7,267 7,269 7,275 7,267 7,269 7,265 7,268 7,272 7,277

06-05 6,435 6,766 6,566 6,470 6,419 6,464 6,437 6,452 6,468 6,458 6,451 6,464 6,465 6,457 6,458 6,455 6,457 6,459

12-05 6,611 7,971 7,709 7,518 7,528 7,477 7,500 7,497 7,493 7,496 7,498 7,495 7,504 7,505 7,502 7,508 7,511

06-06 6,039 7,056 6,844 6,785 6,665 6,698 6,697 6,681 6,669 6,680 6,678 6,672 6,671 6,680 6,691 6,691

12-06 6,720 7,922 7,682 7,497 7,495 7,501 7,510 7,481 7,456 7,453 7,443 7,442 7,446 7,446 7,448

06-07 6,390 7,400 7,192 7,173 7,119 7,110 7,104 7,105 7,103 7,081 7,080 7,088 7,089 7,091

12-07 6,404 7,928 7,928 7,771 7,722 7,697 7,697 7,678 7,662 7,661 7,670 7,676 7,687

06-08 6,314 7,685 7,424 7,245 7,216 7,191 7,158 7,157 7,147 7,139 7,166 7,168

12-08 6,777 8,489 8,337 8,091 7,999 7,962 7,946 7,945 7,942 7,943 7,954

06-09 6,544 8,342 8,111 7,923 7,744 7,668 7,643 7,670 7,667 7,655

12-09 6,827 9,786 9,773 9,420 9,321 9,191 9,223 9,276 9,228

06-10 6,648 9,516 9,525 9,415 9,267 9,352 9,490 9,495

12-10 6,318 8,880 9,134 8,923 9,078 9,326 9,433

06-11 5,290 7,242 7,233 7,197 7,357 7,635

12-11 5,771 7,840 7,735 7,795 8,031

06-12 5,060 6,651 6,638 6,694

12-12 5,582 7,545 7,587

06-13 5,176 7,116

12-13 6,673

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.052 0.942 0.971 0.993 0.995 0.998 0.993 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.062 0.934 0.979 0.991 1.001 0.993 1.001 0.999 0.999 1.001 0.999 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.986 0.952 0.978 0.993 0.986 1.002 0.997 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001

12-03 1.083 0.953 0.972 0.979 1.003 0.997 0.995 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-04 1.088 0.964 0.949 0.998 0.997 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.001 1.002 0.998 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.183 0.913 0.990 0.998 0.989 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.001

06-05 1.051 0.970 0.985 0.992 1.007 0.996 1.002 1.002 0.998 0.999 1.002 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.206 0.967 0.975 1.001 0.993 1.003 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-06 1.168 0.970 0.991 0.982 1.005 1.000 0.998 0.998 1.002 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.000

12-06 1.179 0.970 0.976 1.000 1.001 1.001 0.996 0.997 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.158 0.972 0.997 0.992 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.997 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.238 1.000 0.980 0.994 0.997 1.000 0.998 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001

06-08 1.217 0.966 0.976 0.996 0.997 0.995 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.004 1.000

12-08 1.253 0.982 0.970 0.989 0.995 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

06-09 1.275 0.972 0.977 0.977 0.990 0.997 1.004 1.000 0.998

12-09 1.433 0.999 0.964 0.989 0.986 1.003 1.006 0.995

06-10 1.431 1.001 0.988 0.984 1.009 1.015 1.001

12-10 1.406 1.029 0.977 1.017 1.027 1.011

06-11 1.369 0.999 0.995 1.022 1.038

12-11 1.359 0.987 1.008 1.030

06-12 1.314 0.998 1.008

12-12 1.352 1.006

06-13 1.375

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.228 0.975 0.981 0.996 1.001 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.362 1.003 0.990 1.004 1.008 1.003 1.001 0.998 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.350 0.997 0.997 1.014 1.015 1.007 1.002 0.998 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.229 0.975 0.982 0.995 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.382 0.998 0.986 1.000 1.003 1.001 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.363 1.001 0.992 1.003 1.006 1.002 1.001 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.203 0.973 0.980 0.995 1.000 1.001 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.364 1.004 0.988 1.002 1.007 1.004 1.001 0.998 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.350 0.997 0.996 1.012 1.014 1.007 1.002 0.998 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.338 1.005 0.987 1.001 1.001 1.003 1.004 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.245 1.004 0.990 1.002 1.007 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.364 1.004 0.992 1.002 1.007 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 1.343 1.004 0.999 1.012 1.011 1.010 1.007 1.003 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.259 1.011 1.007 1.017 1.015 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.384 1.015 1.011 1.019 1.017 1.009 1.005 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DI_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:38 PM






06-02 5,827 9,111 9,496 9,626 9,709 9,771 9,836 9,860 9,889 9,910 9,921 9,933 9,942 9,948 9,957 9,962 9,963 9,965 9,971 9,972 9,974 9,974 9,974 9,976

12-02 6,115 10,295 10,781 10,963 11,090 11,202 11,254 11,303 11,334 11,354 11,371 11,379 11,396 11,407 11,412 11,416 11,418 11,423 11,426 11,426 11,429 11,430 11,430

06-03 5,990 9,400 9,792 9,991 10,164 10,250 10,307 10,357 10,377 10,402 10,427 10,441 10,454 10,458 10,464 10,467 10,472 10,474 10,477 10,481 10,495 10,509

12-03 4,970 8,155 8,610 8,878 9,045 9,156 9,224 9,274 9,307 9,332 9,354 9,365 9,372 9,380 9,386 9,389 9,390 9,391 9,394 9,399 9,401

06-04 3,931 6,225 6,645 6,825 6,934 7,019 7,064 7,095 7,133 7,157 7,174 7,180 7,184 7,188 7,192 7,195 7,197 7,201 7,202 7,205

12-04 3,579 6,222 6,625 6,823 6,956 7,042 7,104 7,132 7,170 7,188 7,202 7,212 7,219 7,226 7,233 7,238 7,242 7,246 7,249

06-05 3,442 5,495 5,828 6,009 6,139 6,251 6,298 6,337 6,366 6,382 6,390 6,405 6,422 6,428 6,430 6,432 6,437 6,442

12-05 3,482 6,242 6,742 6,957 7,136 7,245 7,321 7,361 7,383 7,407 7,426 7,439 7,448 7,454 7,462 7,470 7,479

06-06 3,121 5,451 5,948 6,171 6,308 6,430 6,493 6,534 6,563 6,592 6,620 6,630 6,637 6,648 6,659 6,662

12-06 3,392 6,088 6,604 6,866 7,079 7,183 7,256 7,307 7,329 7,353 7,381 7,394 7,404 7,408 7,414

06-07 3,284 5,601 6,202 6,532 6,689 6,818 6,884 6,938 6,971 6,985 7,004 7,027 7,043 7,050

12-07 3,007 6,076 6,725 7,029 7,224 7,330 7,428 7,501 7,528 7,562 7,584 7,613 7,639

06-08 3,243 5,736 6,261 6,582 6,736 6,846 6,910 6,955 7,000 7,025 7,066 7,091

12-08 3,123 6,116 6,785 7,106 7,356 7,525 7,658 7,735 7,783 7,827 7,856

06-09 3,042 5,721 6,348 6,782 7,044 7,189 7,308 7,397 7,453 7,485

12-09 3,027 6,430 7,306 7,880 8,235 8,460 8,665 8,794 8,884

06-10 2,754 5,964 6,984 7,628 8,098 8,425 8,682 8,863

12-10 2,723 5,864 6,835 7,386 7,849 8,214 8,502

06-11 2,389 4,839 5,536 5,917 6,275 6,632

12-11 2,506 5,346 5,999 6,430 6,827

06-12 2,169 4,448 5,055 5,438

12-12 2,292 4,942 5,723

06-13 2,090 4,540

12-13 2,423

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.564 1.042 1.014 1.009 1.006 1.007 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.684 1.047 1.017 1.012 1.010 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.569 1.042 1.020 1.017 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001

12-03 1.641 1.056 1.031 1.019 1.012 1.007 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-04 1.584 1.067 1.027 1.016 1.012 1.006 1.004 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.738 1.065 1.030 1.019 1.012 1.009 1.004 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000

06-05 1.596 1.061 1.031 1.022 1.018 1.008 1.006 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.002 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001

12-05 1.793 1.080 1.032 1.026 1.015 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

06-06 1.747 1.091 1.037 1.022 1.019 1.010 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.002 1.002 1.000

12-06 1.795 1.085 1.040 1.031 1.015 1.010 1.007 1.003 1.003 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001

06-07 1.706 1.107 1.053 1.024 1.019 1.010 1.008 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.001

12-07 2.021 1.107 1.045 1.028 1.015 1.013 1.010 1.004 1.005 1.003 1.004 1.003

06-08 1.769 1.092 1.051 1.023 1.016 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.004 1.006 1.004

12-08 1.958 1.109 1.047 1.035 1.023 1.018 1.010 1.006 1.006 1.004

06-09 1.881 1.110 1.068 1.039 1.021 1.017 1.012 1.008 1.004

12-09 2.124 1.136 1.079 1.045 1.027 1.024 1.015 1.010

06-10 2.166 1.171 1.092 1.062 1.040 1.031 1.021

12-10 2.154 1.166 1.081 1.063 1.047 1.035

06-11 2.026 1.144 1.069 1.061 1.057

12-11 2.133 1.122 1.072 1.062

06-12 2.051 1.136 1.076

12-12 2.156 1.158

06-13 2.172

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.871 1.100 1.048 1.032 1.021 1.013 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.115 1.150 1.078 1.055 1.036 1.022 1.012 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.128 1.140 1.074 1.062 1.043 1.027 1.014 1.008 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.871 1.099 1.048 1.031 1.019 1.012 1.007 1.005 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 2.131 1.144 1.074 1.050 1.029 1.019 1.010 1.006 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 2.123 1.151 1.077 1.057 1.034 1.022 1.012 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.815 1.093 1.046 1.030 1.020 1.013 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.116 1.151 1.079 1.055 1.035 1.023 1.013 1.007 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.128 1.140 1.075 1.062 1.042 1.027 1.015 1.008 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 2.116 1.151 1.079 1.055 1.035 1.023 1.013 1.007 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 3.037 1.435 1.247 1.156 1.096 1.059 1.035 1.022 1.015 1.011 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DI_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:38 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Disability Income





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 74 48 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 21,164 23,499 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.35% 0.24% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 92 57 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 23,775 25,356 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.39% 0.24% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 80 53 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 21,974 25,276 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.36% 0.24% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 76 63 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 23,966 27,273 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.32% 0.24% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 66 59 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 26,537 27,187 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.25% 0.24% 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 69 69 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 28,489 29,336 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.24% 0.24% 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 64 65 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 29,520 29,243 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.22% 0.24% 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 77 77 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 31,387 31,554 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.24% 0.24% 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 71 72 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 32,283 31,455 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.22% 0.24% 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 83 85 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 35,032 33,941 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.24% 0.24% 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 81 79 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 35,530 33,833 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.23% 0.24% 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 88 94 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 36,641 36,507 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.24% 0.24% 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 78 88 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 34,543 36,392 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.23% 0.24% 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 94 104 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 38,687 39,268 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.24% 0.24% 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 97 97 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 40,443 39,144 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.24% 0.24% 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 121 114 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 42,852 42,238 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.28% 0.24% 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 119 107 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 40,274 42,104 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.30% 0.24% 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 102 91 18 1.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0% 35,820 35,388 18 1.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0% 0.28% 0.24% 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-06 0.0% 75 71 19 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.0% 31,905 30,870 19 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.0% 0.23% 0.24% 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-12 0.0% 75 79 20 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.0% 31,004 32,081 20 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.0% 0.24% 0.24% 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-06 0.0% 62 69 21 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.7 0.0% 30,216 30,799 21 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.7 0.0% 0.20% 0.24% 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-12 0.0% 71 77 22 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.7 0.0% 31,856 32,007 22 1.0 0.0 1.0 4.7 0.0% 0.22% 0.24% 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-06 0.0% 65 68 23 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.7 0.0% 30,422 30,728 23 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.7 0.0% 0.21% 0.24% 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-12 0.0% 87 75 24 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.7 0.0% 32,793 31,934 24 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.7 0.0% 0.27% 0.24% 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(26) Indicated Trend 5.1% 12.3% 0.0% (33.6%) (6.0%) (26) Indicated Trend 3.7% 4.0% 0.0% (27.4%) (3.7%) (26) Indicated Trend 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


(28) t-value => observed 7.7 3.0 n/a (3.4) (3.0) (28) t-value => observed 15.9 2.8 n/a (7.8) (5.3) (28) t-value => observed 0.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a 2.1 2.1 (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a 2.1 2.1 (29) t-value => critical 2.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a







(36) Selected Trend 3.7% 4.0% 0.0% (27.4%) (3.7%) (36) Selected Trend 3.7% 4.0% 0.0% (27.4%) (3.7%) (36) Selected Trend 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pre-reform annual trend 7.6% 7.6% Pre-reform annual trend 7.6% 7.6% Pre-reform annual trend 0.0% 0.0%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend -0.2% -0.2% Post-reform annual trend -0.2% -0.2% Post-reform annual trend 0.0% 0.0%

See Segment IV - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate -27.4% -27.4% Reform impact estimate -27.4% -27.4% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0.0%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-DI_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 3:49 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Disability Income





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 774,521 2,860,797 8.9% 74 21,164 0.35%

2002-12 889,957 2,966,797 8.9% 92 23,775 0.39%

2003-06 999,853 2,896,601 8.4% 80 21,974 0.36% 8.1% 3.8% 4.1%

2003-12 1,202,043 2,979,855 8.4% 76 23,966 0.32% (17.3%) 0.8% (18.0%)

2004-06 1,291,069 2,925,524 10.0% 66 26,537 0.25% (17.9%) 20.8% (32.0%)

2004-12 1,324,802 3,001,194 10.0% 69 28,489 0.24% (8.9%) 18.9% (23.3%)

2005-06 1,256,964 2,960,882 9.2% 64 29,520 0.22% (1.7%) 11.2% (11.7%)

2005-12 1,256,815 3,078,987 9.2% 77 31,387 0.24% 10.8% 10.2% 0.6%

2006-06 1,212,557 3,038,078 8.2% 71 32,283 0.22% 10.4% 9.4% 1.0%

2006-12 1,230,875 3,144,169 8.2% 83 35,032 0.24% 8.4% 11.6% (2.9%)

2007-06 1,194,370 3,098,545 8.5% 81 35,530 0.23% 14.4% 10.1% 3.9%

2007-12 1,218,557 3,207,340 8.5% 88 36,641 0.24% 5.8% 4.6% 1.2%

2008-06 1,204,576 3,178,856 7.6% 78 34,543 0.23% (4.1%) (2.8%) (1.4%)

2008-12 1,254,968 3,266,401 7.6% 94 38,687 0.24% 7.5% 5.6% 1.8%

2009-06 1,279,988 3,198,648 7.5% 97 40,443 0.24% 24.6% 17.1% 6.5%

2009-12 1,411,969 3,293,403 7.5% 121 42,852 0.28% 27.7% 10.8% 15.3%

2010-06 1,543,434 3,228,358 6.6% 119 40,274 0.30% 22.4% (0.4%) 22.9%

2010-12 1,773,927 3,335,641 6.6% 102 35,820 0.28% (15.5%) (16.4%) 1.1%

2011-06 1,769,261 3,280,780 8.3% 75 31,905 0.23% (37.0%) (20.8%) (20.5%)

2011-12 1,839,929 3,385,888 8.3% 75 31,004 0.24% (26.6%) (13.4%) (15.2%)

2012-06 1,861,392 3,342,058 8.0% 62 30,216 0.20% (17.7%) (5.3%) (13.1%)

2012-12 1,921,802 3,432,868 8.0% 71 31,856 0.22% (4.8%) 2.7% (7.3%)

2013-06 1,873,598 3,373,945 8.0% 65 30,422 0.21% 5.6% 0.7% 4.9%

2013-12 1,859,220 3,482,060 8.0% 87 32,793 0.27% 22.2% 2.9% 18.7%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment IV - Page 8b.

(4) From GISA.

(5)-(7) From Segment IV - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-DI_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 3:49 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Disability Income

($000)




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 189,946 183,951 9,979 1.021 1.054 1.000 193,934 193,934 9,979 193,934 9,979

2002-12 244,177 230,304 11,442 1.023 1.057 1.000 249,804 243,452 11,442 249,804 11,442

2003-06 208,076 199,008 10,520 1.025 1.063 1.000 213,251 211,613 10,520 213,251 10,520

2003-12 202,938 195,336 9,426 1.027 1.073 1.000 208,401 209,589 9,426 208,401 9,426

2004-06 169,347 159,194 7,224 1.029 1.081 1.000 174,264 172,108 7,224 174,264 7,224

2004-12 182,787 170,980 7,277 1.031 1.091 1.000 188,470 186,612 7,277 188,470 7,277

2005-06 168,946 155,778 6,459 1.033 1.104 1.000 174,604 172,057 6,459 174,604 6,459

2005-12 208,475 195,310 7,511 1.036 1.118 1.000 215,887 218,270 7,511 215,887 7,511

2006-06 192,119 174,990 6,691 1.039 1.136 1.000 199,633 198,839 6,691 199,633 6,691

2006-12 231,143 208,581 7,448 1.043 1.160 1.000 241,143 242,017 7,448 241,143 7,448

2007-06 221,655 196,056 7,091 1.048 1.190 1.000 232,208 233,234 7,091 232,208 7,091

2007-12 246,928 215,417 7,687 1.051 1.225 1.000 259,591 263,802 7,687 259,591 7,687

2008-06 218,274 191,657 7,168 1.055 1.266 1.001 230,347 242,726 7,175 230,347 7,175

2008-12 270,241 225,022 7,954 1.060 1.320 1.002 286,552 296,961 7,970 286,552 7,970

2009-06 270,137 219,049 7,655 1.070 1.387 1.004 289,146 303,857 7,686 289,146 7,686

2009-12 341,550 268,444 9,228 1.081 1.477 1.004 369,324 396,553 9,265 369,324 9,265

2010-06 324,192 248,702 9,495 1.111 1.577 1.004 360,161 392,217 9,533 360,161 9,533

2010-12 277,236 174,068 9,433 1.149 1.707 1.005 318,651 297,146 9,483 318,651 9,483

2011-06 190,263 99,746 7,635 1.193 1.872 1.009 227,029 186,712 7,706 227,029 7,706

2011-12 186,376 84,740 8,031 1.254 2.127 1.017 233,737 180,220 8,165 233,737 8,165

2012-06 141,413 58,592 6,694 1.350 2.560 1.019 190,940 150,018 6,822 190,940 6,822

2012-12 155,263 51,150 7,587 1.458 3.356 1.011 226,341 171,655 7,671 226,341 7,671

2013-06 127,938 28,590 7,116 1.591 5.104 1.015 203,491 145,926 7,221 203,491 7,221

2013-12 107,587 10,082 6,673 2.607 17.229 1.384 280,530 173,702 9,235 280,530 9,235

Total 5,077,005 3,944,747 193,424 5,767,440 5,483,223 196,687 5,767,440 196,687

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment IV - Page 3.





IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-DI_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:49 PM



Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Disability Income




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 774,521 2,860,797 193,934 9,979 25.0% 68 19,434 0.35%

2002-12 889,957 2,966,797 249,804 11,442 28.1% 84 21,832 0.39%

2003-06 999,853 2,896,601 213,251 10,520 21.3% 74 20,271 0.36%

2003-12 1,202,043 2,979,855 208,401 9,426 17.3% 70 22,109 0.32%

2004-06 1,291,069 2,925,524 174,264 7,224 13.5% 60 24,125 0.25%

2004-12 1,324,802 3,001,194 188,470 7,277 14.2% 63 25,899 0.24%

2005-06 1,256,964 2,960,882 174,604 6,459 13.9% 59 27,033 0.22%

2005-12 1,256,815 3,078,987 215,887 7,511 17.2% 70 28,743 0.24%

2006-06 1,212,557 3,038,078 199,633 6,691 16.5% 66 29,836 0.22%

2006-12 1,230,875 3,144,169 241,143 7,448 19.6% 77 32,377 0.24%

2007-06 1,194,370 3,098,545 232,208 7,091 19.4% 75 32,747 0.23%

2007-12 1,218,557 3,207,340 259,591 7,687 21.3% 81 33,770 0.24%

2008-06 1,204,576 3,178,856 230,347 7,175 19.1% 72 32,103 0.23%

2008-12 1,254,968 3,266,401 286,552 7,970 22.8% 88 35,954 0.24%

2009-06 1,279,988 3,198,648 289,146 7,686 22.6% 90 37,622 0.24%

2009-12 1,411,969 3,293,403 369,324 9,265 26.2% 112 39,863 0.28%

2010-06 1,543,434 3,228,358 360,161 9,533 23.3% 112 37,780 0.30%

2010-12 1,773,927 3,335,641 318,651 9,483 18.0% 96 33,602 0.28%

2011-06 1,769,261 3,280,780 227,029 7,706 12.8% 69 29,460 0.23%

2011-12 1,839,929 3,385,888 233,737 8,165 12.7% 69 28,628 0.24%

2012-06 1,861,392 3,342,058 190,940 6,822 10.3% 57 27,988 0.20%

2012-12 1,921,802 3,432,868 226,341 7,671 11.8% 66 29,507 0.22%

2013-06 1,873,598 3,373,945 203,491 7,221 10.9% 60 28,179 0.21%

2013-12 1,859,220 3,482,060 280,530 9,235 15.1% 81 30,375 0.27%

Total 33,446,446 75,957,675 5,767,440 196,687 17.2% 76 29,323 0.26%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment IV - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-DI_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:49 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment V


AB - Death Benefits


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


12-02 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 0 9,824 0

06-03 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 0 7,394 0

12-03 9,297 9,297 9,297 9,297 9,297 9,297 0 9,297 0

06-04 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,838 0 6,838 0

12-04 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 0 7,309 0

06-05 6,602 6,602 6,602 6,602 6,602 6,602 0 6,602 0

12-05 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159 0 8,159 0

06-06 6,430 6,430 6,430 6,430 6,430 6,430 0 6,430 0

12-06 7,989 7,979 7,989 7,979 7,989 7,989 0 7,989 0

06-07 7,305 7,301 7,305 7,301 7,305 7,305 0 7,305 0

12-07 6,715 6,680 6,715 6,680 6,715 6,715 0 6,715 0

06-08 5,831 5,730 5,831 5,730 5,129 5,831 0 5,831 0

12-08 5,542 5,522 5,542 5,522 6,018 5,542 0 5,542 0

06-09 4,786 4,672 4,786 4,672 5,012 4,786 0 4,786 0

12-09 5,248 5,207 5,248 5,207 5,288 5,248 0 5,248 0

06-10 4,263 4,288 4,263 4,291 4,507 4,263 0 4,263 0

12-10 5,375 5,429 5,375 5,422 5,065 5,375 0 5,375 0

06-11 4,271 4,169 4,271 4,169 4,149 4,271 0 4,271 0

12-11 5,637 5,491 5,637 5,500 5,733 5,637 (23) 5,637 0

06-12 4,851 4,570 4,852 4,570 4,571 4,851 (19) 4,851 0

12-12 5,761 5,134 5,764 5,186 5,655 5,761 (166) 5,761 0

06-13 4,150 4,149 4,121 4,219 4,521 4,150 (317) 4,150 0

12-13 5,950 5,019 5,946 5,345 5,629 5,950 71 5,950 0

Total 152,498 150,165 152,469 150,617 152,111 152,498 (455) 152,498 0

GISA 152,498 152,498

Diff 0.00% 0.00%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment V, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment V, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DB_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:35 PM



AB - Death Benefits


NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 2,860,797 211 211 211 0.007% 0.007% 0.007% 211 33,097 33,097 33,097

12-02 2,966,797 294 294 294 0.010% 0.010% 0.010% 294 33,416 33,416 33,416

06-03 2,896,601 230 230 230 0.008% 0.008% 0.008% 230 32,149 32,149 32,149

12-03 2,979,855 290 290 290 0.010% 0.010% 0.010% 290 32,059 32,059 32,059

06-04 2,925,524 230 230 230 0.008% 0.008% 0.008% 230 29,729 29,729 29,729

12-04 3,001,194 271 271 271 0.009% 0.009% 0.009% 271 26,971 26,971 26,971

06-05 2,960,882 225 225 225 0.008% 0.008% 0.008% 225 29,343 29,343 29,343

12-05 3,078,987 276 276 276 0.009% 0.009% 0.009% 276 29,561 29,561 29,561

06-06 3,038,078 229 229 229 0.008% 0.008% 0.008% 229 28,078 28,078 28,078

12-06 3,144,169 277 276 277 0.009% 0.009% 0.009% 277 28,910 28,842 28,842

06-07 3,098,545 247 247 247 0.008% 0.008% 0.008% 247 29,559 29,576 29,576

12-07 3,207,340 267 265 267 0.008% 0.008% 0.008% 267 25,207 25,150 25,150

06-08 3,178,856 184 181 184 0.006% 0.006% 0.006% 184 31,658 31,690 27,874

12-08 3,266,401 216 215 216 0.007% 0.007% 0.007% 216 25,682 25,656 27,860

06-09 3,198,648 180 176 180 0.006% 0.006% 0.006% 180 26,545 26,587 27,846

12-09 3,293,403 190 188 190 0.006% 0.006% 0.006% 190 27,709 27,619 27,832

06-10 3,228,358 162 163 162 0.005% 0.005% 0.005% 162 26,379 26,313 27,818

12-10 3,335,641 182 183 182 0.005% 0.005% 0.005% 182 29,842 29,504 27,804

06-11 3,280,780 149 147 149 0.005% 0.005% 0.005% 149 28,310 28,604 27,790

12-11 3,385,888 206 202 206 0.006% 0.006% 0.006% 206 27,132 27,311 27,776

06-12 3,342,058 165 155 165 0.005% 0.005% 0.005% 165 29,484 29,468 27,762

12-12 3,432,868 204 190 204 0.006% 0.006% 0.006% 204 26,973 28,270 27,749

06-13 3,373,945 140 137 140 0.004% 0.004% 0.005% 163 30,270 29,668 27,735

12-13 3,482,060 201 167 201 0.006% 0.006% 0.006% 203 30,127 29,545 27,721

Total 75,957,675 5,226 5,149 5,226 5,251

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment V, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DB_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:35 PM



AB - Death Benefits


Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 6,529 7,762 7,283 7,198 7,110 7,142 7,149 7,089 7,093 7,038 6,980 6,980 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971

12-02 8,804 10,063 10,183 9,994 9,930 10,054 9,932 9,861 9,935 9,889 9,975 9,868 9,966 9,829 9,829 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824

06-03 6,351 7,587 7,648 7,338 7,412 7,478 7,408 7,353 7,391 7,431 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394

12-03 8,441 9,408 9,126 9,527 9,552 9,425 9,413 9,562 9,542 9,412 9,410 9,397 9,397 9,374 9,327 9,327 9,299 9,299 9,297 9,297 9,297

06-04 6,534 6,808 6,894 6,816 6,923 6,967 7,045 6,992 6,878 6,821 6,844 6,845 6,845 6,845 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,863 6,838

12-04 7,550 7,978 7,928 7,749 7,703 7,716 7,508 7,593 7,507 7,423 7,423 7,389 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309

06-05 6,509 7,124 6,817 6,680 6,720 6,757 6,788 6,757 6,697 6,720 6,691 6,673 6,651 6,602 6,602 6,602 6,602 6,602

12-05 8,549 8,534 8,392 8,252 8,093 8,115 8,184 8,236 8,225 8,219 8,219 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159

06-06 7,322 7,077 6,724 6,742 6,698 6,618 6,803 6,711 6,705 6,534 6,515 6,475 6,475 6,430 6,430 6,430

12-06 7,254 8,249 8,112 8,339 7,880 7,920 7,969 7,978 8,013 8,023 8,024 7,987 7,962 7,989 7,989

06-07 6,506 7,578 7,528 7,343 7,403 7,360 7,420 7,379 7,369 7,373 7,368 7,313 7,305 7,305

12-07 7,177 7,842 7,235 7,122 7,009 6,992 6,896 6,922 6,837 6,822 6,750 6,715 6,715

06-08 5,956 6,427 6,117 5,896 6,075 5,961 5,964 5,876 5,953 5,902 5,892 5,831

12-08 5,326 6,502 6,075 5,812 5,707 5,694 5,605 5,534 5,532 5,532 5,542

06-09 4,728 5,100 4,895 4,802 4,778 4,695 4,801 4,892 4,808 4,786

12-09 5,059 5,456 5,350 5,299 5,188 5,199 5,219 5,228 5,248

06-10 4,715 4,505 4,307 4,165 4,265 4,283 4,248 4,263

12-10 6,045 6,090 5,688 5,586 5,461 5,397 5,375

06-11 3,795 4,133 4,115 4,222 4,269 4,271

12-11 5,858 6,215 5,830 5,592 5,660

06-12 5,672 5,619 5,237 4,871

12-12 5,530 6,039 5,927

06-13 4,262 4,467

12-13 5,879

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.189 0.938 0.988 0.988 1.004 1.001 0.992 1.001 0.992 0.992 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.143 1.012 0.982 0.994 1.013 0.988 0.993 1.008 0.995 1.009 0.989 1.010 0.986 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.195 1.008 0.959 1.010 1.009 0.991 0.993 1.005 1.005 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.115 0.970 1.044 1.003 0.987 0.999 1.016 0.998 0.986 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.998 0.995 1.000 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.042 1.013 0.989 1.016 1.006 1.011 0.993 0.984 0.992 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 0.996

12-04 1.057 0.994 0.977 0.994 1.002 0.973 1.011 0.989 0.989 1.000 0.995 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.094 0.957 0.980 1.006 1.006 1.005 0.995 0.991 1.003 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 0.998 0.983 0.983 0.981 1.003 1.009 1.006 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 0.967 0.950 1.003 0.993 0.988 1.028 0.986 0.999 0.974 0.997 0.994 1.000 0.993 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.137 0.983 1.028 0.945 1.005 1.006 1.001 1.004 1.001 1.000 0.995 0.997 1.003 1.000

06-07 1.165 0.993 0.975 1.008 0.994 1.008 0.994 0.999 1.001 0.999 0.993 0.999 1.000

12-07 1.093 0.923 0.984 0.984 0.997 0.986 1.004 0.988 0.998 0.989 0.995 1.000

06-08 1.079 0.952 0.964 1.030 0.981 1.001 0.985 1.013 0.991 0.998 0.990

12-08 1.221 0.934 0.957 0.982 0.998 0.984 0.987 1.000 1.000 1.002

06-09 1.079 0.960 0.981 0.995 0.982 1.023 1.019 0.983 0.995

12-09 1.079 0.981 0.990 0.979 1.002 1.004 1.002 1.004

06-10 0.956 0.956 0.967 1.024 1.004 0.992 1.004

12-10 1.007 0.934 0.982 0.978 0.988 0.996

06-11 1.089 0.996 1.026 1.011 1.000

12-11 1.061 0.938 0.959 1.012

06-12 0.991 0.932 0.930

12-12 1.092 0.982

06-13 1.048

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.082 0.968 0.983 0.997 0.998 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.995 0.999 0.995 0.999 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.048 0.956 0.976 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.993 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.048 0.962 0.974 1.006 0.999 1.004 1.003 1.000 0.996 0.997 0.993 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.082 0.968 0.983 0.998 0.999 1.000 0.998 0.998 0.996 0.999 0.995 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.046 0.958 0.973 1.001 0.995 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.997 0.998 0.994 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.051 0.952 0.975 0.999 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.993 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.084 0.969 0.985 0.995 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.995 0.999 0.995 0.999 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.045 0.954 0.974 0.999 0.996 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.993 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.048 0.959 0.971 1.005 0.998 1.004 1.002 1.000 0.996 0.997 0.993 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.100 0.956 0.984 0.995 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.089 0.956 0.976 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.089 0.956 0.976 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 1.022 0.929 0.972 0.988 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.012 0.929 0.972 0.996 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.012 0.929 0.972 0.996 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DB_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:35 PM



AB - Death Benefits



Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 3,362 6,056 6,470 6,658 6,855 6,944 7,008 7,009 7,014 6,980 6,969 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971 6,971

12-02 4,417 7,712 8,320 8,851 9,275 9,438 9,472 9,571 9,609 9,644 9,746 9,771 9,810 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824 9,824

06-03 3,494 6,111 6,841 6,961 6,968 7,123 7,101 7,234 7,247 7,352 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394 7,394

12-03 4,139 7,024 7,477 8,545 8,765 9,014 9,079 9,123 9,179 9,201 9,234 9,252 9,258 9,282 9,292 9,297 9,297 9,297 9,297 9,297 9,297

06-04 3,599 5,629 6,164 6,259 6,482 6,669 6,689 6,671 6,799 6,801 6,824 6,825 6,828 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,838 6,838

12-04 3,540 6,200 6,840 6,966 7,057 7,192 7,199 7,214 7,332 7,343 7,343 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309 7,309

06-05 3,436 5,395 5,946 6,355 6,411 6,492 6,567 6,592 6,595 6,596 6,556 6,558 6,651 6,602 6,602 6,602 6,602 6,602

12-05 4,028 6,953 7,341 7,656 7,808 7,821 8,006 8,056 8,092 8,184 8,184 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159 8,159

06-06 3,141 5,222 5,746 5,901 6,059 6,069 6,370 6,386 6,399 6,410 6,428 6,400 6,400 6,430 6,430 6,430

12-06 3,709 6,493 7,151 7,379 7,516 7,642 7,726 7,818 7,957 7,933 7,950 7,950 7,950 7,979 7,979

06-07 3,472 5,899 6,399 6,602 6,860 7,045 7,244 7,278 7,287 7,287 7,293 7,301 7,301 7,301

12-07 3,138 5,564 6,247 6,564 6,630 6,694 6,705 6,746 6,767 6,777 6,680 6,680 6,680

06-08 2,790 4,572 4,910 5,116 5,322 5,494 5,537 5,608 5,669 5,729 5,729 5,730

12-08 2,162 4,802 5,154 5,379 5,463 5,483 5,485 5,509 5,522 5,522 5,522

06-09 2,349 3,863 4,339 4,424 4,469 4,492 4,477 4,576 4,579 4,672

12-09 2,280 4,181 4,483 4,637 4,810 4,920 4,944 5,061 5,182

06-10 2,098 3,321 3,689 3,852 4,116 4,188 4,188 4,238

12-10 2,864 4,594 4,971 5,124 5,235 5,260 5,320

06-11 1,749 3,252 3,713 3,895 4,020 4,048

12-11 2,672 4,658 5,118 5,276 5,277

06-12 2,094 3,753 4,081 4,271

12-12 2,236 4,136 4,617

06-13 2,073 3,373

12-13 2,337

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.801 1.068 1.029 1.030 1.013 1.009 1.000 1.001 0.995 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.746 1.079 1.064 1.048 1.017 1.004 1.010 1.004 1.004 1.011 1.003 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.749 1.120 1.018 1.001 1.022 0.997 1.019 1.002 1.015 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.697 1.065 1.143 1.026 1.028 1.007 1.005 1.006 1.002 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.564 1.095 1.015 1.036 1.029 1.003 0.997 1.019 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.752 1.103 1.018 1.013 1.019 1.001 1.002 1.016 1.002 1.000 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.570 1.102 1.069 1.009 1.013 1.012 1.004 1.000 1.000 0.994 1.000 1.014 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.726 1.056 1.043 1.020 1.002 1.024 1.006 1.004 1.011 1.000 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.662 1.100 1.027 1.027 1.002 1.050 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.003 0.996 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.751 1.101 1.032 1.019 1.017 1.011 1.012 1.018 0.997 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000

06-07 1.699 1.085 1.032 1.039 1.027 1.028 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.773 1.123 1.051 1.010 1.010 1.002 1.006 1.003 1.001 0.986 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.639 1.074 1.042 1.040 1.032 1.008 1.013 1.011 1.011 1.000 1.000

12-08 2.221 1.073 1.044 1.016 1.004 1.000 1.004 1.002 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.645 1.123 1.020 1.010 1.005 0.997 1.022 1.001 1.020

12-09 1.834 1.072 1.034 1.037 1.023 1.005 1.024 1.024

06-10 1.583 1.111 1.044 1.068 1.018 1.000 1.012

12-10 1.604 1.082 1.031 1.022 1.005 1.011

06-11 1.860 1.142 1.049 1.032 1.007

12-11 1.743 1.099 1.031 1.000

06-12 1.792 1.088 1.046

12-12 1.850 1.116

06-13 1.627

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.734 1.094 1.042 1.025 1.015 1.009 1.008 1.007 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.746 1.106 1.039 1.028 1.010 1.004 1.013 1.007 1.005 0.999 0.999 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.753 1.111 1.039 1.031 1.013 1.003 1.016 1.009 1.008 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.719 1.094 1.038 1.024 1.015 1.008 1.008 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.742 1.103 1.038 1.026 1.011 1.004 1.012 1.006 1.004 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.753 1.103 1.039 1.025 1.009 1.003 1.013 1.004 1.003 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.725 1.092 1.043 1.024 1.016 1.010 1.008 1.007 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.736 1.104 1.038 1.026 1.010 1.004 1.013 1.007 1.004 0.999 0.999 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.754 1.110 1.038 1.028 1.013 1.004 1.015 1.010 1.007 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.746 1.106 1.039 1.028 1.010 1.009 1.008 1.007 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 2.147 1.230 1.112 1.070 1.040 1.030 1.020 1.012 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DB_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:35 PM



AB - Death Benefits



06-02 232 245 221 221 218 219 217 214 213 213 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211

12-02 302 325 307 303 307 303 299 296 296 295 294 293 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294

06-03 217 241 240 234 236 235 235 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230

12-03 303 324 300 301 298 293 292 293 292 290 291 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290

06-04 216 237 234 231 234 232 234 233 231 229 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230

12-04 283 291 290 282 278 281 279 273 276 275 275 275 271 271 271 271 271 271 271

06-05 209 232 229 232 232 229 227 228 226 226 226 225 225 225 225 225 225 225

12-05 290 286 277 274 276 277 278 278 278 278 278 276 276 276 276 276 276

06-06 251 252 239 234 230 229 234 233 233 232 230 230 230 229 229 229

12-06 245 284 281 273 277 275 277 279 278 278 278 278 277 277 277

06-07 228 254 249 244 243 246 249 248 247 247 246 247 247 247

12-07 248 286 271 266 266 266 265 267 266 266 267 267 267

06-08 183 201 192 185 191 185 184 183 183 185 185 184

12-08 198 223 219 215 213 214 215 215 216 216 216

06-09 165 187 180 179 177 178 180 182 180 180

12-09 177 187 187 193 193 190 191 191 190

06-10 164 167 160 156 162 164 163 162

12-10 185 195 186 185 184 183 182

06-11 131 151 148 148 149 149

12-11 200 217 206 202 206

06-12 175 181 171 163

12-12 194 211 204

06-13 141 146

12-13 194

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.056 0.902 1.000 0.986 1.005 0.991 0.986 0.995 1.000 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.076 0.945 0.987 1.013 0.987 0.987 0.990 1.000 0.997 0.997 0.997 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.111 0.996 0.975 1.009 0.996 1.000 0.979 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.069 0.926 1.003 0.990 0.983 0.997 1.003 0.997 0.993 1.003 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.097 0.987 0.987 1.013 0.991 1.009 0.996 0.991 0.991 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.028 0.997 0.972 0.986 1.011 0.993 0.978 1.011 0.996 1.000 1.000 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.110 0.987 1.013 1.000 0.987 0.991 1.004 0.991 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 0.986 0.969 0.989 1.007 1.004 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.004 0.948 0.979 0.983 0.996 1.022 0.996 1.000 0.996 0.991 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.159 0.989 0.972 1.015 0.993 1.007 1.007 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.112 0.982 0.980 0.996 1.012 1.012 0.996 0.996 1.000 0.996 1.004 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.153 0.948 0.982 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.008 0.996 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.098 0.955 0.964 1.032 0.969 0.995 0.995 1.000 1.011 1.000 0.995

12-08 1.126 0.982 0.982 0.991 1.005 1.005 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.133 0.963 0.994 0.989 1.006 1.011 1.011 0.989 1.000

12-09 1.056 1.000 1.032 1.000 0.984 1.005 1.000 0.995

06-10 1.018 0.958 0.975 1.038 1.012 0.994 0.994

12-10 1.054 0.954 0.995 0.995 0.995 0.995

06-11 1.153 0.980 1.000 1.007 1.000

12-11 1.085 0.949 0.981 1.020

06-12 1.034 0.945 0.953

12-12 1.088 0.967

06-13 1.035

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.080 0.965 0.986 1.003 0.997 1.001 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.075 0.959 0.989 1.008 1.000 1.001 1.001 0.997 1.002 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.061 0.960 0.982 1.015 0.998 1.001 1.001 0.997 1.003 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.081 0.966 0.986 1.003 0.997 1.000 0.997 0.997 0.999 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.059 0.962 0.988 1.007 0.998 1.001 1.001 0.997 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.066 0.957 0.988 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.001 0.997 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.078 0.964 0.986 1.003 0.996 1.000 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.073 0.958 0.990 1.008 1.000 1.001 1.002 0.997 1.001 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.063 0.959 0.982 1.014 0.997 1.001 1.001 0.997 1.002 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.084 0.964 0.996 1.003 0.995 1.001 1.002 0.997 1.001 0.999 0.999 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.084 0.959 0.989 1.008 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.084 0.959 0.989 1.008 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 1.034 0.954 0.990 0.994 0.991 0.996 0.995 0.993 0.996 0.995 0.996 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.038 0.958 0.999 1.010 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.038 0.958 0.999 1.010 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DB_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:35 PM



AB - Death Benefits



06-02 113 184 202 206 208 209 210 210 210 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211

12-02 161 264 273 281 287 290 289 290 290 291 292 293 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294

06-03 120 195 216 221 223 226 226 227 227 229 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230

12-03 165 252 265 273 279 285 286 287 288 288 289 289 289 289 290 290 290 290 290 290 290

06-04 120 195 212 213 219 222 224 225 229 229 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230 230

12-04 142 233 255 260 263 267 270 270 271 271 271 271 271 271 271 271 271 271 271

06-05 118 184 200 213 218 221 224 224 224 224 224 224 225 225 225 225 225 225

12-05 168 245 253 261 267 267 272 275 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276 276

06-06 124 199 210 215 221 222 226 226 228 228 228 228 228 229 229 229

12-06 142 232 250 261 267 270 271 275 275 275 276 276 276 276 276

06-07 136 213 224 231 236 241 244 246 246 246 246 247 247 247

12-07 118 220 245 250 255 259 261 262 264 265 265 265 265

06-08 92 152 166 171 174 177 177 178 179 181 181 181

12-08 95 182 196 205 207 209 212 214 215 215 215

06-09 91 147 162 166 166 170 172 174 174 176

12-09 98 159 167 175 179 182 184 185 187

06-10 90 135 144 150 157 161 161 161

12-10 92 156 170 175 179 180 180

06-11 75 125 132 139 143 144

12-11 107 170 186 192 195

06-12 77 130 139 146

12-12 93 158 172

06-13 75 115

12-13 85

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.630 1.098 1.020 1.010 1.005 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.640 1.034 1.029 1.021 1.010 0.997 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.625 1.108 1.023 1.009 1.013 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.009 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.527 1.052 1.030 1.022 1.022 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.625 1.087 1.005 1.028 1.014 1.009 1.004 1.018 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.641 1.094 1.020 1.012 1.015 1.011 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.559 1.087 1.065 1.023 1.014 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.458 1.033 1.032 1.023 1.000 1.019 1.011 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.605 1.055 1.024 1.028 1.005 1.018 1.000 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.634 1.078 1.044 1.023 1.011 1.004 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.566 1.052 1.031 1.022 1.021 1.012 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.864 1.114 1.020 1.020 1.016 1.008 1.004 1.008 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.652 1.092 1.030 1.018 1.017 1.000 1.006 1.006 1.011 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.916 1.077 1.046 1.010 1.010 1.014 1.009 1.005 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.615 1.102 1.025 1.000 1.024 1.012 1.012 1.000 1.011

12-09 1.622 1.050 1.048 1.023 1.017 1.011 1.005 1.011

06-10 1.500 1.067 1.042 1.047 1.025 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.696 1.090 1.029 1.023 1.006 1.000

06-11 1.667 1.056 1.053 1.029 1.007

12-11 1.589 1.094 1.032 1.016

06-12 1.688 1.069 1.050

12-12 1.699 1.089

06-13 1.533

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.633 1.076 1.033 1.020 1.013 1.008 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.645 1.077 1.042 1.023 1.015 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.627 1.077 1.041 1.028 1.014 1.006 1.007 1.005 1.007 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.628 1.077 1.033 1.020 1.013 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.633 1.077 1.041 1.020 1.015 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.660 1.079 1.043 1.023 1.014 1.006 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.625 1.075 1.032 1.020 1.013 1.008 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.645 1.079 1.042 1.022 1.015 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.628 1.079 1.040 1.027 1.014 1.006 1.007 1.005 1.006 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.645 1.077 1.042 1.023 1.015 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.962 1.192 1.107 1.062 1.038 1.023 1.017 1.011 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-DB_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:35 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Death Benefits





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 2.65 3.04 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 36,043 35,541 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 3.61 3.44 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 36,390 35,514 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 2.77 2.75 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 34,849 35,488 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 3.38 3.11 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 34,752 35,462 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 2.57 2.71 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 32,702 30,861 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 2.68 3.07 6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 29,668 30,838 6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 2.43 2.45 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 32,043 30,815 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 2.89 2.78 8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 32,281 30,792 8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 2.29 2.22 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 30,381 30,770 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 2.75 2.51 10 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 31,207 30,747 10 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 10 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 2.56 2.01 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 32,090 30,724 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 2.27 2.27 12 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 27,287 30,702 12 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 12 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 1.97 1.82 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 34,099 30,679 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 1.83 2.06 14 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 27,606 30,657 14 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 14 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 1.61 1.64 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 28,581 30,634 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 1.71 1.86 16 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 29,690 30,611 16 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 16 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 1.41 1.49 17 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 28,050 30,589 17 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 17 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 1.72 1.74 18 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.7 0.0% 31,452 30,566 18 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 18 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.7

2011-06 0.0% 1.41 1.47 19 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.7 0.0% 30,979 30,544 19 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.00% 0.00% 19 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.7

2011-12 0.0% 1.80 1.75 20 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.7 0.0% 29,578 30,521 20 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 20 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.7

2012-06 0.0% 1.57 1.48 21 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.7 0.0% 31,813 30,499 21 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.00% 0.00% 21 0.0 1.0 0.0 3.7

2012-12 0.0% 1.81 1.76 22 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.7 0.0% 30,520 30,476 22 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 22 1.0 1.0 0.0 4.7

2013-06 0.0% 1.33 1.48 23 0.0 1.0 0.0 5.7 0.0% 32,029 30,454 23 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.00% 0.00% 23 0.0 1.0 0.0 5.7

2013-12 0.0% 1.84 1.77 24 1.0 1.0 0.0 6.7 0.0% 31,897 30,431 24 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 24 1.0 1.0 0.0 6.7

(26) Indicated Trend (4.9%) 19.1% 9.1% 0.0% 5.4% (26) Indicated Trend (0.1%) 0.0% (12.9%) 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend (4.2%) 22.8% 19.6% 0.0% 3.1%


(28) t-value => observed (8.3) 5.0 1.2 n/a 3.3 (28) t-value => observed (0.3) n/a (3.0) n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed (7.7) 6.5 2.8 n/a 2.0

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 2.1 n/a 2.1 (29) t-value => critical 2.1 n/a 2.1 n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 2.1 n/a 2.1







(36) Selected Trend (4.3%) 22.8% 4.2% 0.0% 3.1% (36) Selected Trend (0.1%) 0.0% (12.9%) 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend (4.2%) 22.8% 19.6% 0.0% 3.1% Pre-reform annual trend -8.4% -8.4% Pre-reform annual trend -0.1% -0.1% Pre-reform annual trend -8.3% -8.3%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend -2.7% -2.7% Post-reform annual trend -0.1% -0.1% Post-reform annual trend -2.5% -2.5%

See Segment V - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-DB_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 3:33 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Death Benefits





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 774,521 2,860,797 8.9% 3 36,043 0.01%

2002-12 889,957 2,966,797 8.9% 4 36,390 0.01%

2003-06 999,853 2,896,601 8.4% 3 34,849 0.01% 4.3% (3.3%) 7.8%

2003-12 1,202,043 2,979,855 8.4% 3 34,752 0.01% (6.2%) (4.5%) (1.8%)

2004-06 1,291,069 2,925,524 10.0% 3 32,702 0.01% (7.1%) (6.2%) (1.0%)

2004-12 1,324,802 3,001,194 10.0% 3 29,668 0.01% (20.8%) (14.6%) (7.2%)

2005-06 1,256,964 2,960,882 9.2% 2 32,043 0.01% (5.3%) (2.0%) (3.3%)

2005-12 1,256,815 3,078,987 9.2% 3 32,281 0.01% 8.0% 8.8% (0.7%)

2006-06 1,212,557 3,038,078 8.2% 2 30,381 0.01% (6.0%) (5.2%) (0.8%)

2006-12 1,230,875 3,144,169 8.2% 3 31,207 0.01% (5.0%) (3.3%) (1.7%)

2007-06 1,194,370 3,098,545 8.5% 3 32,090 0.01% 11.7% 5.6% 5.8%

2007-12 1,218,557 3,207,340 8.5% 2 27,287 0.01% (17.4%) (12.6%) (5.5%)

2008-06 1,204,576 3,178,856 7.6% 2 34,099 0.01% (22.8%) 6.3% (27.4%)

2008-12 1,254,968 3,266,401 7.6% 2 27,606 0.01% (19.6%) 1.2% (20.6%)

2009-06 1,279,988 3,198,648 7.5% 2 28,581 0.01% (18.5%) (16.2%) (2.8%)

2009-12 1,411,969 3,293,403 7.5% 2 29,690 0.01% (6.2%) 7.6% (12.8%)

2010-06 1,543,434 3,228,358 6.6% 1 28,050 0.01% (12.5%) (1.9%) (10.8%)

2010-12 1,773,927 3,335,641 6.6% 2 31,452 0.01% 0.3% 5.9% (5.3%)

2011-06 1,769,261 3,280,780 8.3% 1 30,979 0.00% 0.2% 10.4% (9.3%)

2011-12 1,839,929 3,385,888 8.3% 2 29,578 0.01% 5.0% (6.0%) 11.6%

2012-06 1,861,392 3,342,058 8.0% 2 31,813 0.00% 11.2% 2.7% 8.2%

2012-12 1,921,802 3,432,868 8.0% 2 30,520 0.01% 0.5% 3.2% (2.6%)

2013-06 1,873,598 3,373,945 8.0% 1 32,029 0.00% (15.3%) 0.7% (15.8%)

2013-12 1,859,220 3,482,060 8.0% 2 31,897 0.01% 1.8% 4.5% (2.6%)

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment V - Page 8b.

(4) From GISA.

(5)-(7) From Segment V - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-DB_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 4:14 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Death Benefits

($000)




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 6,971 6,971 211 1.000 1.000 1.000 6,971 6,971 211 6,971 211

2002-12 9,824 9,824 294 1.000 1.000 1.000 9,824 9,824 294 9,824 294

2003-06 7,394 7,394 230 1.000 1.000 1.000 7,394 7,394 230 7,394 230

2003-12 9,297 9,297 290 1.000 1.000 1.000 9,297 9,297 290 9,297 290

2004-06 6,838 6,838 230 1.000 1.000 1.000 6,838 6,838 230 6,838 230

2004-12 7,309 7,309 271 1.000 1.000 1.000 7,309 7,309 271 7,309 271

2005-06 6,602 6,602 225 1.000 1.000 1.000 6,602 6,602 225 6,602 225

2005-12 8,159 8,159 276 1.000 1.000 1.000 8,159 8,159 276 8,159 276

2006-06 6,430 6,430 229 1.000 1.000 1.000 6,430 6,430 229 6,430 229

2006-12 7,989 7,979 277 1.000 1.000 1.000 7,989 7,979 277 7,989 277

2007-06 7,305 7,301 247 1.000 1.000 1.000 7,305 7,301 247 7,305 247

2007-12 6,715 6,680 267 1.000 1.000 1.000 6,715 6,680 267 6,715 267

2008-06 5,831 5,730 184 1.000 1.000 1.000 5,831 5,730 184 5,831 184

2008-12 5,542 5,522 216 1.000 1.000 1.000 5,542 5,522 216 5,542 216

2009-06 4,786 4,672 180 1.000 1.000 1.000 4,786 4,672 180 4,786 180

2009-12 5,248 5,182 190 1.000 1.005 1.000 5,248 5,207 190 5,248 190

2010-06 4,263 4,238 162 1.000 1.012 1.000 4,263 4,288 162 4,263 162

2010-12 5,375 5,320 182 1.000 1.020 1.001 5,375 5,429 182 5,375 182

2011-06 4,271 4,048 149 1.000 1.030 1.002 4,271 4,169 149 4,271 149

2011-12 5,660 5,277 206 0.996 1.040 1.002 5,637 5,491 206 5,637 206

2012-06 4,871 4,271 163 0.996 1.070 1.010 4,851 4,570 165 4,851 165

2012-12 5,927 4,617 204 0.972 1.112 0.999 5,761 5,134 204 5,761 204

2013-06 4,467 3,373 146 0.929 1.230 0.958 4,150 4,149 140 4,150 140

2013-12 5,879 2,337 194 1.012 2.147 1.038 5,950 5,019 201 5,950 201

Total 152,953 145,372 5,223 152,498 150,165 5,226 152,498 5,226

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment V - Page 3.





IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-DB_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:33 PM



Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Death Benefits




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 774,521 2,860,797 6,971 211 0.9% 2 33,097 0.01%

2002-12 889,957 2,966,797 9,824 294 1.1% 3 33,416 0.01%

2003-06 999,853 2,896,601 7,394 230 0.7% 3 32,149 0.01%

2003-12 1,202,043 2,979,855 9,297 290 0.8% 3 32,059 0.01%

2004-06 1,291,069 2,925,524 6,838 230 0.5% 2 29,729 0.01%

2004-12 1,324,802 3,001,194 7,309 271 0.6% 2 26,971 0.01%

2005-06 1,256,964 2,960,882 6,602 225 0.5% 2 29,343 0.01%

2005-12 1,256,815 3,078,987 8,159 276 0.6% 3 29,561 0.01%

2006-06 1,212,557 3,038,078 6,430 229 0.5% 2 28,078 0.01%

2006-12 1,230,875 3,144,169 7,989 277 0.6% 3 28,842 0.01%

2007-06 1,194,370 3,098,545 7,305 247 0.6% 2 29,576 0.01%

2007-12 1,218,557 3,207,340 6,715 267 0.6% 2 25,150 0.01%

2008-06 1,204,576 3,178,856 5,831 184 0.5% 2 31,690 0.01%

2008-12 1,254,968 3,266,401 5,542 216 0.4% 2 25,656 0.01%

2009-06 1,279,988 3,198,648 4,786 180 0.4% 1 26,587 0.01%

2009-12 1,411,969 3,293,403 5,248 190 0.4% 2 27,619 0.01%

2010-06 1,543,434 3,228,358 4,263 162 0.3% 1 26,313 0.01%

2010-12 1,773,927 3,335,641 5,375 182 0.3% 2 29,504 0.01%

2011-06 1,769,261 3,280,780 4,271 149 0.2% 1 28,604 0.00%

2011-12 1,839,929 3,385,888 5,637 206 0.3% 2 27,311 0.01%

2012-06 1,861,392 3,342,058 4,851 165 0.3% 1 29,468 0.00%

2012-12 1,921,802 3,432,868 5,761 204 0.3% 2 28,270 0.01%

2013-06 1,873,598 3,373,945 4,150 140 0.2% 1 29,668 0.00%

2013-12 1,859,220 3,482,060 5,950 201 0.3% 2 29,545 0.01%

Total 33,446,446 75,957,675 152,498 5,226 0.5% 2 29,180 0.01%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment V - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-DB_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:33 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment VI


AB - Funeral Expenses


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


12-02 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,646 2,572 0 2,572 0

06-03 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,969 1,980 0 1,980 0

12-03 2,342 2,308 2,342 2,308 2,446 2,342 0 2,342 0

06-04 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,907 1,906 0 1,906 0

12-04 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,640 2,279 0 2,279 0

06-05 1,787 1,787 1,787 1,787 2,007 1,787 0 1,787 0

12-05 2,270 2,264 2,270 2,264 2,410 2,270 0 2,270 0

06-06 1,944 1,942 1,944 1,942 2,026 1,944 0 1,944 0

12-06 2,323 2,317 2,323 2,317 2,447 2,323 0 2,323 0

06-07 1,890 1,890 1,890 1,890 1,971 1,890 0 1,890 0

12-07 2,019 2,013 2,019 2,013 2,125 2,019 0 2,019 0

06-08 1,574 1,559 1,574 1,559 1,605 1,574 0 1,574 0

12-08 1,884 1,878 1,884 1,878 1,857 1,884 0 1,884 0

06-09 1,373 1,357 1,373 1,357 1,371 1,373 0 1,373 0

12-09 1,773 1,718 1,773 1,718 1,681 1,773 0 1,773 0

06-10 1,378 1,361 1,378 1,361 1,369 1,378 1 1,378 0

12-10 1,797 1,769 1,797 1,769 1,797 1,797 7 1,797 0

06-11 1,218 1,202 1,218 1,202 1,223 1,218 8 1,220 (3)

12-11 1,624 1,583 1,625 1,586 1,667 1,624 16 1,628 (4)

06-12 1,421 1,414 1,421 1,413 1,395 1,421 (10) 1,424 (3)

12-12 1,677 1,708 1,674 1,711 1,744 1,677 (66) 1,680 (4)

06-13 1,184 1,295 1,181 1,284 1,221 1,184 (89) 1,180 4

12-13 1,676 1,513 1,677 1,616 1,735 1,676 26 1,659 18

Total 43,701 43,423 43,697 43,521 45,061 43,701 (107) 43,692 9

GISA 43,692 43,692

Diff -0.02% 0.02%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment VI, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment VI, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-F_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:34 PM





NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)


12-02 2,966,797 400 400 400 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 400 6,429 6,429 6,615

06-03 2,896,601 313 313 313 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 313 6,327 6,327 6,289

12-03 2,979,855 372 371 372 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 372 6,220 6,296 6,575

06-04 2,925,524 305 305 305 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 305 6,250 6,250 6,252

12-04 3,001,194 404 404 404 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 404 5,640 5,640 6,536

06-05 2,960,882 323 323 323 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 323 5,533 5,533 6,214

12-05 3,078,987 371 370 371 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 371 6,120 6,120 6,496

06-06 3,038,078 328 328 328 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 328 5,921 5,926 6,177

12-06 3,144,169 379 378 379 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 379 6,128 6,128 6,457

06-07 3,098,545 321 321 321 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 321 5,886 5,886 6,140

12-07 3,207,340 331 330 331 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 331 6,099 6,098 6,419

06-08 3,178,856 263 261 263 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 263 5,972 5,984 6,103

12-08 3,266,401 291 290 291 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 291 6,477 6,476 6,380

06-09 3,198,648 226 223 226 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 226 6,077 6,076 6,066

12-09 3,293,403 265 262 265 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 265 6,573 6,689 6,342

06-10 3,228,358 227 226 227 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 227 6,016 6,072 6,030

12-10 3,335,641 285 283 285 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 285 6,263 6,304 6,304

06-11 3,280,780 204 204 204 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 204 5,907 5,968 5,994

12-11 3,385,888 266 259 266 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 266 6,074 6,106 6,266

06-12 3,342,058 234 228 234 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 234 6,175 6,070 5,958

12-12 3,432,868 280 277 280 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 280 6,138 5,987 6,228

06-13 3,373,945 206 213 206 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 206 6,058 5,744 5,922

12-13 3,482,060 280 245 280 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 280 6,136 5,982 6,191

Total 75,957,675 7,160 7,099 7,160 7,160

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment VI, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-F_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:34 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 1,784 1,956 1,822 1,833 1,820 1,825 1,825 1,812 1,804 1,804 1,797 1,797 1,803 1,803 1,803 1,803 1,804 1,800 1,806 1,806 1,812 1,812 1,812 1,812

12-02 2,439 2,747 2,642 2,645 2,622 2,606 2,579 2,588 2,588 2,567 2,578 2,571 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572

06-03 1,709 1,963 1,975 1,935 1,997 1,991 1,990 1,976 1,976 1,972 1,979 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980

12-03 2,311 2,537 2,414 2,385 2,357 2,307 2,304 2,317 2,320 2,318 2,312 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,342 2,342

06-04 1,749 1,922 1,881 1,843 1,871 1,889 1,940 1,951 1,953 1,929 1,917 1,917 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906

12-04 2,259 2,407 2,319 2,276 2,269 2,282 2,270 2,295 2,282 2,282 2,284 2,286 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279

06-05 1,707 1,913 1,869 1,789 1,791 1,791 1,815 1,802 1,796 1,796 1,796 1,781 1,781 1,787 1,787 1,787 1,787 1,787

12-05 2,208 2,338 2,313 2,269 2,260 2,264 2,264 2,270 2,270 2,270 2,276 2,264 2,264 2,264 2,264 2,264 2,270

06-06 2,152 1,970 2,006 1,981 1,931 1,925 1,931 1,928 1,940 1,936 1,930 1,933 1,934 1,944 1,944 1,944

12-06 2,106 2,404 2,421 2,315 2,308 2,284 2,281 2,313 2,325 2,325 2,325 2,316 2,316 2,321 2,323

06-07 1,763 1,954 1,921 1,918 1,927 1,920 1,916 1,918 1,898 1,891 1,890 1,890 1,890 1,890

12-07 2,055 2,172 2,071 2,056 2,038 2,022 2,011 2,010 2,014 2,013 2,021 2,019 2,019

06-08 1,691 1,775 1,694 1,664 1,619 1,590 1,583 1,571 1,578 1,577 1,580 1,574

12-08 1,671 1,915 1,845 1,819 1,810 1,892 1,886 1,881 1,884 1,884 1,884

06-09 1,262 1,428 1,469 1,404 1,346 1,323 1,359 1,365 1,372 1,373

12-09 1,540 1,821 1,828 1,735 1,726 1,724 1,732 1,764 1,773

06-10 1,442 1,577 1,422 1,341 1,366 1,368 1,368 1,377

12-10 1,930 1,891 1,854 1,821 1,782 1,775 1,789

06-11 1,044 1,215 1,213 1,236 1,217 1,209

12-11 1,658 1,683 1,684 1,667 1,609

06-12 1,519 1,624 1,542 1,432

12-12 1,653 1,853 1,743

06-13 1,227 1,273

12-13 1,650

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.097 0.931 1.006 0.993 1.003 1.000 0.993 0.996 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.997 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.126 0.962 1.001 0.991 0.994 0.990 1.003 1.000 0.992 1.004 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.149 1.006 0.980 1.032 0.997 1.000 0.993 1.000 0.998 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.098 0.951 0.988 0.988 0.979 0.999 1.006 1.001 0.999 0.997 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.015 1.000

06-04 1.099 0.979 0.980 1.015 1.009 1.027 1.006 1.001 0.988 0.994 1.000 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.065 0.963 0.982 0.997 1.006 0.994 1.011 0.994 1.000 1.001 1.001 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.120 0.977 0.957 1.001 1.000 1.013 0.993 0.997 1.000 1.000 0.992 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.059 0.989 0.981 0.996 1.002 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.003 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003

06-06 0.916 1.018 0.988 0.975 0.997 1.003 0.998 1.006 0.998 0.997 1.001 1.001 1.005 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.142 1.007 0.956 0.997 0.990 0.999 1.014 1.005 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.002 1.001

06-07 1.109 0.983 0.999 1.005 0.996 0.998 1.001 0.989 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.057 0.954 0.992 0.991 0.992 0.995 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.004 0.999 1.000

06-08 1.050 0.954 0.982 0.973 0.982 0.996 0.992 1.004 0.999 1.002 0.996

12-08 1.146 0.963 0.986 0.995 1.045 0.997 0.998 1.002 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.132 1.029 0.956 0.959 0.983 1.027 1.004 1.005 1.001

12-09 1.183 1.004 0.949 0.995 0.999 1.004 1.019 1.005

06-10 1.093 0.902 0.943 1.019 1.001 1.000 1.007

12-10 0.980 0.980 0.983 0.978 0.996 1.008

06-11 1.164 0.998 1.018 0.985 0.993

12-11 1.015 1.000 0.990 0.965

06-12 1.070 0.949 0.929

12-12 1.121 0.941

06-13 1.037

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.088 0.975 0.978 0.993 0.998 1.003 1.002 1.000 0.998 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.065 0.962 0.969 0.983 1.003 1.005 1.003 1.001 0.999 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.061 0.972 0.980 0.987 0.997 1.010 1.007 1.004 1.000 1.001 0.998 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.092 0.976 0.979 0.992 0.996 1.002 1.002 1.001 0.999 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.083 0.979 0.968 0.982 0.994 1.001 1.004 1.004 1.000 1.001 0.998 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.061 0.967 0.966 0.981 0.997 1.002 1.002 1.003 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.085 0.974 0.979 0.993 0.998 1.002 1.003 1.000 0.998 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.056 0.961 0.967 0.983 1.005 1.005 1.003 1.001 0.999 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.062 0.970 0.978 0.985 0.997 1.009 1.007 1.004 1.000 1.001 0.998 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.109 0.972 0.973 0.988 1.001 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.084 0.962 0.969 0.983 1.003 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.092 0.967 0.969 0.983 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 1.044 0.941 0.968 0.995 1.007 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.005 0.927 0.964 0.995 1.012 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.016 0.930 0.962 0.993 1.010 1.007 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-F_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:34 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 1,023 1,653 1,716 1,748 1,764 1,777 1,789 1,789 1,789 1,789 1,786 1,786 1,798 1,798 1,798 1,798 1,800 1,800 1,806 1,806 1,812 1,812 1,812 1,812

12-02 1,371 2,353 2,473 2,523 2,528 2,540 2,535 2,543 2,550 2,552 2,566 2,571 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572 2,572

06-03 1,095 1,724 1,855 1,880 1,912 1,926 1,947 1,966 1,968 1,972 1,979 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980

12-03 1,381 2,193 2,237 2,251 2,272 2,285 2,287 2,306 2,315 2,313 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,307 2,308

06-04 1,059 1,608 1,709 1,741 1,774 1,812 1,876 1,889 1,902 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906

12-04 1,341 2,046 2,155 2,194 2,202 2,236 2,248 2,268 2,269 2,274 2,277 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279 2,279

06-05 1,011 1,563 1,665 1,718 1,732 1,734 1,778 1,773 1,773 1,779 1,779 1,775 1,781 1,787 1,787 1,787 1,787 1,787

12-05 1,333 2,076 2,146 2,180 2,212 2,222 2,240 2,264 2,264 2,264 2,270 2,264 2,264 2,264 2,264 2,264 2,264

06-06 1,098 1,702 1,834 1,863 1,895 1,901 1,910 1,905 1,924 1,924 1,924 1,927 1,933 1,942 1,942 1,942

12-06 1,249 2,074 2,203 2,204 2,233 2,272 2,275 2,307 2,313 2,308 2,311 2,311 2,311 2,317 2,317

06-07 1,169 1,691 1,777 1,834 1,845 1,856 1,870 1,886 1,886 1,890 1,890 1,890 1,890 1,890

12-07 1,107 1,836 1,946 1,953 1,981 1,986 1,986 1,992 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013 2,013

06-08 946 1,440 1,545 1,562 1,535 1,544 1,546 1,547 1,550 1,555 1,555 1,559

12-08 907 1,589 1,698 1,780 1,803 1,874 1,874 1,869 1,878 1,878 1,878

06-09 753 1,138 1,257 1,257 1,275 1,291 1,328 1,347 1,354 1,355

12-09 848 1,397 1,550 1,633 1,659 1,685 1,693 1,716 1,716

06-10 788 1,177 1,254 1,282 1,326 1,350 1,350 1,354

12-10 965 1,568 1,680 1,720 1,729 1,731 1,750

06-11 609 1,005 1,105 1,147 1,168 1,180

12-11 901 1,376 1,491 1,499 1,530

06-12 779 1,220 1,305 1,342

12-12 870 1,459 1,576

06-13 749 1,108

12-13 813

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.617 1.038 1.018 1.010 1.007 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.717 1.051 1.020 1.002 1.005 0.998 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.005 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.574 1.076 1.014 1.017 1.007 1.011 1.010 1.001 1.002 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.589 1.020 1.007 1.009 1.006 1.001 1.008 1.004 0.999 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.518 1.063 1.019 1.019 1.021 1.035 1.007 1.007 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.525 1.054 1.018 1.004 1.015 1.006 1.009 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.545 1.066 1.032 1.008 1.001 1.026 0.997 1.000 1.003 1.000 0.998 1.003 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.558 1.034 1.016 1.015 1.004 1.008 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.003 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.550 1.078 1.016 1.017 1.003 1.005 0.997 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.003 1.005 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.660 1.062 1.001 1.013 1.017 1.001 1.014 1.003 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000

06-07 1.447 1.051 1.032 1.006 1.006 1.008 1.009 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.659 1.060 1.004 1.014 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.522 1.073 1.011 0.983 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.003 1.000 1.003

12-08 1.752 1.069 1.048 1.013 1.040 1.000 0.998 1.005 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.512 1.104 1.000 1.014 1.012 1.029 1.014 1.005 1.001

12-09 1.647 1.109 1.054 1.016 1.016 1.005 1.013 1.000

06-10 1.493 1.066 1.022 1.034 1.018 1.000 1.003

12-10 1.625 1.072 1.024 1.005 1.001 1.011

06-11 1.650 1.100 1.038 1.019 1.010

12-11 1.528 1.084 1.005 1.021

06-12 1.565 1.070 1.028

12-12 1.678 1.080

06-13 1.479

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.583 1.067 1.020 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.588 1.079 1.028 1.018 1.016 1.008 1.005 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.563 1.084 1.024 1.020 1.011 1.011 1.007 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.581 1.067 1.019 1.012 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.585 1.085 1.027 1.015 1.011 1.004 1.007 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.592 1.076 1.028 1.017 1.014 1.004 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.584 1.064 1.019 1.011 1.010 1.008 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.588 1.078 1.028 1.018 1.017 1.007 1.005 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.565 1.083 1.023 1.019 1.011 1.011 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.592 1.079 1.028 1.018 1.016 1.008 1.005 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.860 1.169 1.083 1.054 1.035 1.018 1.011 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-F_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:34 PM






06-02 269 286 268 272 268 270 271 268 267 267 266 266 281 281 281 281 282 283 284 284 285 285 285 285

12-02 380 411 403 406 400 396 395 395 395 393 395 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

06-03 263 307 309 304 307 305 306 303 303 303 312 313 313 313 313 313 313 313 313 313 313 313

12-03 364 379 368 368 369 365 365 367 367 373 372 371 371 371 371 371 371 371 371 372 372

06-04 265 306 306 301 302 301 301 302 307 306 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305

12-04 367 395 389 386 385 387 384 403 402 402 403 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404

06-05 248 288 288 287 286 286 324 324 323 323 323 322 322 323 323 323 323 323

12-05 336 361 360 357 356 371 369 370 370 370 371 370 370 370 370 370 371

06-06 291 308 312 311 329 325 327 327 327 326 325 326 327 328 328 328

12-06 315 364 373 379 379 376 375 377 378 378 378 378 378 379 379

06-07 278 318 320 321 322 323 321 322 321 322 321 321 321 321

12-07 301 337 335 336 332 331 331 330 330 330 332 331 331

06-08 242 276 271 269 269 265 262 261 262 264 264 263

12-08 260 294 290 287 286 288 289 290 291 291 291

06-09 199 227 229 225 223 222 225 225 226 226

12-09 233 268 267 267 266 264 264 267 265

06-10 212 235 231 223 227 228 228 227

12-10 275 288 289 286 285 284 285

06-11 178 204 204 205 205 204

12-11 250 270 268 268 266

06-12 232 251 241 233

12-12 246 289 280

06-13 192 208

12-13 255

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.063 0.937 1.015 0.985 1.007 1.004 0.989 0.996 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.056 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.082 0.981 1.007 0.985 0.990 0.997 1.000 1.000 0.995 1.005 1.013 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.167 1.007 0.984 1.010 0.993 1.003 0.990 1.000 1.000 1.030 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.041 0.971 1.000 1.003 0.989 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.016 0.997 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.000

06-04 1.155 1.000 0.984 1.003 0.997 1.000 1.003 1.017 0.997 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.076 0.985 0.992 0.997 1.005 0.992 1.049 0.998 1.000 1.002 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.161 1.000 0.997 0.997 1.000 1.133 1.000 0.997 1.000 1.000 0.997 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.074 0.997 0.992 0.997 1.042 0.995 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.003 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003

06-06 1.058 1.013 0.996 1.059 0.988 1.006 1.000 1.000 0.997 0.997 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.156 1.025 1.016 1.000 0.992 0.997 1.005 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.000

06-07 1.144 1.006 1.003 1.003 1.003 0.994 1.003 0.997 1.003 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.120 0.994 1.003 0.988 0.997 1.000 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.006 0.997 1.000

06-08 1.140 0.982 0.993 1.000 0.985 0.989 0.996 1.004 1.008 1.000 0.996

12-08 1.131 0.986 0.990 0.997 1.007 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.141 1.009 0.983 0.991 0.996 1.014 1.000 1.004 1.000

12-09 1.150 0.996 1.000 0.996 0.992 1.000 1.011 0.993

06-10 1.108 0.983 0.965 1.018 1.004 1.000 0.996

12-10 1.047 1.003 0.990 0.997 0.996 1.004

06-11 1.146 1.000 1.005 1.000 0.995

12-11 1.080 0.993 1.000 0.993

06-12 1.082 0.960 0.967

12-12 1.175 0.969

06-13 1.083

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.112 0.991 0.994 1.001 0.999 1.007 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.102 0.985 0.988 0.999 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.000 0.999 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.105 0.980 0.990 1.002 0.997 1.004 1.003 1.001 1.002 1.001 0.998 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.113 0.992 0.995 0.999 0.997 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.108 0.991 0.988 0.997 0.997 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.098 0.986 0.989 0.996 0.998 1.002 0.999 1.001 1.001 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.109 0.991 0.995 1.001 0.999 1.006 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.001 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.100 0.984 0.988 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.107 0.979 0.990 1.001 0.997 1.004 1.003 1.001 1.002 1.001 0.998 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.122 0.995 0.997 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.115 0.985 0.996 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.109 0.991 0.995 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 1.114 0.993 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.095 0.982 0.997 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.099 0.991 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-F_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:34 PM






06-02 159 246 257 260 262 264 266 266 266 266 266 266 282 282 282 282 283 283 284 284 285 285 285 285

12-02 217 362 378 386 386 389 389 389 390 391 393 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

06-03 167 272 293 297 300 301 301 302 302 303 312 313 313 313 313 313 313 313 313 313 313 313

12-03 224 340 350 354 360 362 363 365 366 372 371 371 371 371 371 371 371 371 371 371 371

06-04 171 265 284 288 292 293 295 297 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305 305

12-04 228 348 367 372 376 380 382 401 401 402 403 404 404 404 404 404 404 404 404

06-05 164 255 270 278 280 280 320 320 320 321 321 321 322 323 323 323 323 323

12-05 221 330 340 346 348 363 365 369 369 369 370 370 370 370 370 370 370

06-06 179 274 293 299 322 322 324 323 324 324 324 325 326 328 328 328

12-06 205 325 349 365 370 373 373 375 376 376 377 377 377 378 378

06-07 192 283 301 310 313 316 317 320 320 321 321 321 321 321

12-07 175 294 314 319 326 327 327 327 330 330 330 330 330

06-08 158 235 253 257 257 259 259 259 259 261 261 261

12-08 146 257 273 282 285 285 287 288 290 290 290

06-09 124 188 207 211 214 217 220 222 223 223

12-09 143 228 242 253 257 259 259 261 261

06-10 137 196 211 215 222 225 225 225

12-10 154 253 270 275 279 280 280

06-11 105 170 187 194 199 201

12-11 148 228 248 251 254

06-12 127 198 212 219

12-12 140 239 259

06-13 124 184

12-13 133

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.546 1.045 1.012 1.008 1.008 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.060 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.668 1.044 1.021 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.003 1.005 1.018 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.629 1.077 1.014 1.010 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.030 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.518 1.029 1.011 1.017 1.006 1.003 1.006 1.003 1.016 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.550 1.072 1.014 1.014 1.003 1.007 1.007 1.027 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.526 1.055 1.014 1.011 1.011 1.005 1.050 1.000 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.555 1.059 1.030 1.007 1.000 1.143 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.493 1.030 1.018 1.006 1.043 1.006 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.531 1.069 1.020 1.077 1.000 1.006 0.997 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.003 1.006 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.585 1.074 1.046 1.014 1.008 1.000 1.005 1.003 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.000

06-07 1.474 1.064 1.030 1.010 1.010 1.003 1.009 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.680 1.068 1.016 1.022 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.487 1.077 1.016 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.760 1.062 1.033 1.011 1.000 1.007 1.003 1.007 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.516 1.101 1.019 1.014 1.014 1.014 1.009 1.005 1.000

12-09 1.594 1.061 1.045 1.016 1.008 1.000 1.008 1.000

06-10 1.431 1.077 1.019 1.033 1.014 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.643 1.067 1.019 1.015 1.004 1.000

06-11 1.619 1.100 1.037 1.026 1.010

12-11 1.541 1.088 1.012 1.012

06-12 1.559 1.071 1.033

12-12 1.707 1.084

06-13 1.484

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.569 1.067 1.023 1.016 1.008 1.011 1.006 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.592 1.081 1.028 1.019 1.008 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.573 1.086 1.025 1.021 1.009 1.003 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.567 1.067 1.022 1.014 1.007 1.004 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.573 1.081 1.027 1.015 1.008 1.002 1.004 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.590 1.080 1.027 1.018 1.009 1.002 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.568 1.064 1.022 1.015 1.008 1.010 1.007 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.594 1.080 1.027 1.019 1.008 1.003 1.003 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.575 1.085 1.024 1.020 1.008 1.003 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.594 1.081 1.028 1.019 1.008 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.843 1.156 1.070 1.041 1.021 1.013 1.010 1.006 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-F_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:34 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Funeral Expenses





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 1 1 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,916 6,783 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 1 1 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 7,001 6,981 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 1 1 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,858 6,742 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 1 1 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,824 6,939 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 1 1 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,875 6,701 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 1 1 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,204 6,897 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 1 1 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,042 6,661 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 1 1 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,683 6,855 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 1 1 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,412 6,621 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 1 1 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,630 6,814 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 1 1 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,387 6,581 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 1 1 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,617 6,773 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 1 1 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,439 6,541 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 1 1 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,968 6,732 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 0 1 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,532 6,501 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 1 1 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 7,191 6,691 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 0 0 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,473 6,462 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 1 1 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,720 6,651 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-06 0.0% 0 0 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,464 6,423 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-12 0.0% 1 1 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,613 6,610 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-06 0.0% 0 0 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,553 6,384 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-12 0.0% 1 1 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,464 6,570 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-06 0.0% 0 0 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,201 6,345 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-12 0.0% 1 0 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,458 6,531 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.01% 0.01% 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(26) Indicated Trend (3.0%) 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend (0.3%) 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend (2.8%) 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


(28) t-value => observed (13.3) 7.9 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed (3.5) 2.7 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed (10.1) 5.4 n/a n/a n/a

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a






(35) Selected b (0.22) (35) Selected b 8.83 (35) Selected b (9.02)

(36) Selected Trend (3.1%) 25.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend (0.3%) 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend (2.8%) 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pre-reform annual trend -6.2% -6.2% Pre-reform annual trend -0.6% -0.6% Pre-reform annual trend -5.6% -5.6%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend -6.2% -6.2% Post-reform annual trend -0.6% -0.6% Post-reform annual trend -5.6% -5.6%

See Segment VI - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.01%

0.02%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6



5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-F_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 3:24 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Funeral Expenses





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 774,521 2,860,797 8.9% 1 6,916 0.01%

2002-12 889,957 2,966,797 8.9% 1 7,001 0.01%

2003-06 999,853 2,896,601 8.4% 1 6,858 0.01% 7.5% (0.8%) 8.4%

2003-12 1,202,043 2,979,855 8.4% 1 6,824 0.01% (9.7%) (2.5%) (7.4%)

2004-06 1,291,069 2,925,524 10.0% 1 6,875 0.01% (3.3%) 0.2% (3.5%)

2004-12 1,324,802 3,001,194 10.0% 1 6,204 0.01% (2.0%) (9.1%) 7.8%

2005-06 1,256,964 2,960,882 9.2% 1 6,042 0.01% (8.0%) (12.1%) 4.6%

2005-12 1,256,815 3,078,987 9.2% 1 6,683 0.01% (3.6%) 7.7% (10.5%)

2006-06 1,212,557 3,038,078 8.2% 1 6,412 0.01% 5.0% 6.1% (1.0%)

2006-12 1,230,875 3,144,169 8.2% 1 6,630 0.01% (0.7%) (0.8%) 0.0%

2007-06 1,194,370 3,098,545 8.5% 1 6,387 0.01% (4.4%) (0.4%) (4.0%)

2007-12 1,218,557 3,207,340 8.5% 1 6,617 0.01% (14.6%) (0.2%) (14.4%)

2008-06 1,204,576 3,178,856 7.6% 1 6,439 0.01% (19.5%) 0.8% (20.1%)

2008-12 1,254,968 3,266,401 7.6% 1 6,968 0.01% (9.1%) 5.3% (13.7%)

2009-06 1,279,988 3,198,648 7.5% 0 6,532 0.01% (13.4%) 1.4% (14.6%)

2009-12 1,411,969 3,293,403 7.5% 1 7,191 0.01% (6.8%) 3.2% (9.7%)

2010-06 1,543,434 3,228,358 6.6% 0 6,473 0.01% (1.4%) (0.9%) (0.5%)

2010-12 1,773,927 3,335,641 6.6% 1 6,720 0.01% (0.8%) (6.6%) 6.2%

2011-06 1,769,261 3,280,780 8.3% 0 6,464 0.01% (11.7%) (0.1%) (11.6%)

2011-12 1,839,929 3,385,888 8.3% 1 6,613 0.01% (9.5%) (1.6%) (8.1%)

2012-06 1,861,392 3,342,058 8.0% 0 6,553 0.01% 14.2% 1.4% 12.7%

2012-12 1,921,802 3,432,868 8.0% 1 6,464 0.01% 1.5% (2.3%) 3.8%

2013-06 1,873,598 3,373,945 8.0% 0 6,201 0.01% (17.5%) (5.4%) (12.8%)

2013-12 1,859,220 3,482,060 8.0% 1 6,458 0.01% (1.4%) (0.1%) (1.4%)

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment VI - Page 8b.

(4) From GISA.

(5)-(7) From Segment VI - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-F_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 4:19 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Funeral Expenses

($000)




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 1,812 1,812 285 1.000 1.000 1.000 1,812 1,812 285 1,812 285

2002-12 2,572 2,572 400 1.000 1.000 1.000 2,572 2,572 400 2,572 400

2003-06 1,980 1,980 313 1.000 1.000 1.000 1,980 1,980 313 1,980 313

2003-12 2,342 2,308 372 1.000 1.000 1.000 2,342 2,308 372 2,342 372

2004-06 1,906 1,906 305 1.000 1.000 1.000 1,906 1,906 305 1,906 305

2004-12 2,279 2,279 404 1.000 1.000 1.000 2,279 2,279 404 2,279 404

2005-06 1,787 1,787 323 1.000 1.000 1.000 1,787 1,787 323 1,787 323

2005-12 2,270 2,264 371 1.000 1.000 1.000 2,270 2,264 371 2,270 371

2006-06 1,944 1,942 328 1.000 1.000 1.000 1,944 1,942 328 1,944 328

2006-12 2,323 2,317 379 1.000 1.000 1.000 2,323 2,317 379 2,323 379

2007-06 1,890 1,890 321 1.000 1.000 1.000 1,890 1,890 321 1,890 321

2007-12 2,019 2,013 331 1.000 1.000 1.000 2,019 2,013 331 2,019 331

2008-06 1,574 1,559 263 1.000 1.000 1.000 1,574 1,559 263 1,574 263

2008-12 1,884 1,878 291 1.000 1.000 1.000 1,884 1,878 291 1,884 291

2009-06 1,373 1,355 226 1.000 1.001 1.000 1,373 1,357 226 1,373 226

2009-12 1,773 1,716 265 1.000 1.002 1.000 1,773 1,718 265 1,773 265

2010-06 1,377 1,354 227 1.001 1.005 1.000 1,378 1,361 227 1,378 227

2010-12 1,789 1,750 285 1.004 1.011 1.000 1,797 1,769 285 1,797 285

2011-06 1,209 1,180 204 1.007 1.018 1.000 1,218 1,202 204 1,218 204

2011-12 1,609 1,530 266 1.010 1.035 1.000 1,624 1,583 266 1,624 266

2012-06 1,432 1,342 233 0.993 1.054 1.005 1,421 1,414 234 1,421 234

2012-12 1,743 1,576 280 0.962 1.083 1.000 1,677 1,708 280 1,677 280

2013-06 1,273 1,108 208 0.930 1.169 0.991 1,184 1,295 206 1,184 206

2013-12 1,650 813 255 1.016 1.860 1.099 1,676 1,513 280 1,676 280

Total 43,808 42,229 7,135 43,701 43,423 7,160 43,701 7,160

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment VI - Page 3.





IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-F_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:24 PM



Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Funeral Expenses




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 774,521 2,860,797 1,812 285 0.2% 1 6,351 0.01%

2002-12 889,957 2,966,797 2,572 400 0.3% 1 6,429 0.01%

2003-06 999,853 2,896,601 1,980 313 0.2% 1 6,327 0.01%

2003-12 1,202,043 2,979,855 2,342 372 0.2% 1 6,296 0.01%

2004-06 1,291,069 2,925,524 1,906 305 0.1% 1 6,250 0.01%

2004-12 1,324,802 3,001,194 2,279 404 0.2% 1 5,640 0.01%

2005-06 1,256,964 2,960,882 1,787 323 0.1% 1 5,533 0.01%

2005-12 1,256,815 3,078,987 2,270 371 0.2% 1 6,120 0.01%

2006-06 1,212,557 3,038,078 1,944 328 0.2% 1 5,926 0.01%

2006-12 1,230,875 3,144,169 2,323 379 0.2% 1 6,128 0.01%

2007-06 1,194,370 3,098,545 1,890 321 0.2% 1 5,886 0.01%

2007-12 1,218,557 3,207,340 2,019 331 0.2% 1 6,098 0.01%

2008-06 1,204,576 3,178,856 1,574 263 0.1% 0 5,984 0.01%

2008-12 1,254,968 3,266,401 1,884 291 0.2% 1 6,476 0.01%

2009-06 1,279,988 3,198,648 1,373 226 0.1% 0 6,076 0.01%

2009-12 1,411,969 3,293,403 1,773 265 0.1% 1 6,689 0.01%

2010-06 1,543,434 3,228,358 1,378 227 0.1% 0 6,072 0.01%

2010-12 1,773,927 3,335,641 1,797 285 0.1% 1 6,304 0.01%

2011-06 1,769,261 3,280,780 1,218 204 0.1% 0 5,968 0.01%

2011-12 1,839,929 3,385,888 1,624 266 0.1% 0 6,106 0.01%

2012-06 1,861,392 3,342,058 1,421 234 0.1% 0 6,070 0.01%

2012-12 1,921,802 3,432,868 1,677 280 0.1% 0 5,987 0.01%

2013-06 1,873,598 3,373,945 1,184 206 0.1% 0 5,744 0.01%

2013-12 1,859,220 3,482,060 1,676 280 0.1% 0 5,982 0.01%

Total 33,446,446 75,957,675 43,701 7,160 0.1% 1 6,104 0.01%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment VI - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-F_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:24 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment VII


AB - Medical Expenses


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


12-02 748,485 746,399 745,263 733,596 515,500 748,485 10,352 749,205 (720)

06-03 666,224 664,267 664,187 656,723 537,293 666,224 10,525 664,879 1,346

12-03 599,175 603,669 597,578 597,598 511,357 599,175 10,894 600,046 (871)

06-04 469,064 474,310 468,946 473,535 463,535 469,064 9,984 469,179 (115)

12-04 595,347 583,813 593,087 577,398 502,037 595,347 14,415 598,359 (3,013)

06-05 515,218 515,696 515,620 516,915 530,028 515,218 13,979 516,276 (1,058)

12-05 692,710 694,601 689,908 685,923 601,698 692,710 21,327 694,882 (2,172)

06-06 626,742 621,099 625,638 618,264 594,552 626,742 21,505 627,632 (889)

12-06 838,646 829,054 833,535 815,305 716,758 838,646 35,168 840,438 (1,792)

06-07 806,006 812,638 804,799 807,969 779,093 806,006 36,166 804,483 1,523

12-07 950,864 972,161 946,309 954,197 858,259 950,864 46,773 947,488 3,376

06-08 908,013 941,287 910,171 942,102 945,791 908,013 51,869 900,664 7,349

12-08 1,140,147 1,186,934 1,133,970 1,157,125 1,042,191 1,140,147 71,899 1,127,002 13,145

06-09 1,224,353 1,310,666 1,216,019 1,263,184 1,108,194 1,224,353 87,843 1,205,838 18,516

12-09 1,702,063 1,834,366 1,678,137 1,719,936 1,406,261 1,702,063 137,674 1,675,461 26,602

06-10 1,718,045 1,895,805 1,698,508 1,777,176 1,500,935 1,718,045 154,601 1,682,265 35,779

12-10 1,203,530 1,170,874 1,191,527 1,141,087 1,082,282 1,203,530 119,145 1,187,401 16,129

06-11 734,335 594,072 736,295 653,574 751,624 736,295 85,222 738,967 (2,672)

12-11 752,229 547,524 754,625 644,621 769,349 754,625 107,695 756,909 (2,283)

06-12 646,369 456,333 660,277 592,544 717,925 660,277 139,538 632,177 28,100

12-12 765,807 518,329 770,329 684,528 785,178 770,329 183,311 732,012 38,317

06-13 709,652 480,270 725,518 695,073 766,287 725,518 214,673 674,315 51,203

12-13 898,098 525,081 862,588 798,649 816,449 862,588 355,084 836,873 25,715

Total 20,510,070 19,587,439 20,420,077 20,107,563 18,757,770 20,513,213 1,946,744 20,261,700 251,513

GISA 20,261,700 20,261,700

Diff -1.21% 1.24%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (13) from Exhibit A - Segment VII, Page 2] x [Column (16) from Exhibit A - Segment VII, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-MR_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:31 PM





NOT PRINTED





Year Exposure Reported Closed Selected Rate Method Rate TPL-DC Covg to DC TPL-DC Rate Counts Dev. Method Dev. Method Severity

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16)


12-02 2,966,797 33,236 33,226 33,236 1.12% 1.12% 3.64% 30.78% 30.12% 1.10% 32,524 21,589 22,520 15,850

06-03 2,896,601 32,530 32,520 32,530 1.12% 1.12% 3.59% 31.26% 30.12% 1.08% 31,340 19,628 20,480 17,144

12-03 2,979,855 27,737 27,730 27,737 0.93% 0.93% 3.07% 30.30% 30.12% 0.93% 27,575 20,909 21,602 18,544

06-04 2,925,524 23,208 23,199 23,208 0.79% 0.79% 3.07% 25.85% 25.74% 0.79% 23,109 19,634 20,212 20,059

12-04 3,001,194 23,603 23,594 23,603 0.79% 0.79% 3.00% 26.25% 28.76% 25.74% 0.77% 23,139 23,758 25,223 21,697

06-05 2,960,882 21,071 21,058 21,071 0.71% 0.71% 2.96% 24.01% 28.08% 25.74% 0.76% 22,584 23,512 24,452 23,469

12-05 3,078,987 24,422 24,411 24,422 0.79% 0.79% 2.99% 26.52% 27.37% 25.74% 0.77% 23,703 27,321 28,364 25,385

06-06 3,038,078 22,340 22,326 22,340 0.74% 0.74% 2.77% 26.55% 26.58% 25.74% 0.71% 21,653 26,711 28,055 27,458

12-06 3,144,169 24,654 24,637 24,654 0.78% 0.78% 2.98% 26.29% 25.91% 25.74% 0.77% 24,133 32,306 34,017 29,701

06-07 3,098,545 23,578 23,563 23,578 0.76% 0.76% 3.04% 25.02% 25.78% 25.74% 0.78% 24,251 33,101 34,185 32,126

12-07 3,207,340 25,249 25,218 25,249 0.79% 0.79% 2.99% 26.31% 25.79% 25.74% 0.77% 24,698 37,001 37,659 34,750

06-08 3,178,856 23,600 23,561 23,600 0.74% 0.74% 3.08% 24.14% 25.81% 25.74% 0.79% 25,162 38,326 38,475 37,588

12-08 3,266,401 25,835 25,812 25,835 0.79% 0.79% 3.05% 25.94% 25.71% 25.74% 0.78% 25,633 44,113 44,132 40,657

06-09 3,198,648 25,669 25,639 25,669 0.80% 0.80% 3.06% 26.22% 25.65% 25.74% 0.79% 25,199 49,051 47,698 43,978

12-09 3,293,403 30,073 30,040 30,073 0.91% 0.91% 2.95% 30.97% 26.43% 30.44% 0.90% 29,562 58,595 56,598 47,569

06-10 3,228,358 30,111 30,008 30,111 0.93% 0.93% 2.97% 31.42% 27.50% 30.44% 0.90% 29,170 60,617 57,057 51,454

12-10 3,335,641 29,903 29,514 29,903 0.90% 0.90% 3.10% 28.93% 27.94% 30.44% 0.94% 31,461 37,899 40,248 34,401

06-11 3,280,780 24,965 24,546 24,965 0.76% 0.76% 2.94% 25.93% 28.24% 25.61% 0.75% 24,665 23,244 29,415 30,473

12-11 3,385,888 26,018 25,664 26,018 0.77% 0.77% 2.90% 26.52% 28.33% 25.61% 0.74% 25,159 20,672 28,912 30,579

06-12 3,342,058 22,609 22,393 22,609 0.68% 0.68% 2.73% 24.83% 28.10% 25.61% 0.70% 23,396 20,096 28,589 30,686

12-12 3,432,868 24,938 24,854 24,938 0.73% 0.73% 2.90% 25.08% 27.12% 25.61% 0.74% 25,498 20,968 30,709 30,793

06-13 3,373,945 23,093 23,243 23,093 0.68% 0.68% 2.87% 23.69% 25.83% 25.61% 0.73% 24,798 21,070 30,731 30,901

12-13 3,482,060 28,008 26,717 26,717 0.77% 0.82% 2.95% 27.62% 25.61% 25.61% 0.76% 26,330 20,422 32,065 31,009

Total 75,957,675 625,471 622,491 624,179 625,807

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(7) / (8)].



(12) = [(8) * (11)].

(13) = [(2) x (12)].


(15) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment VII, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-MR_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:31 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 390,509 491,783 495,200 499,914 516,022 528,984 539,821 551,362 561,263 565,490 570,508 576,055 577,874 580,225 584,159 585,299 586,157 587,959 589,753 590,260 591,170 590,533 590,161 591,845

12-02 509,222 620,230 624,653 633,641 649,721 660,448 674,193 680,602 687,492 694,009 700,846 705,119 710,607 713,906 716,234 721,763 722,372 726,192 726,846 727,651 731,775 736,460 738,133

06-03 477,195 556,983 555,519 563,053 575,763 590,095 601,691 611,501 619,958 624,549 628,888 633,855 634,588 635,641 640,281 643,826 646,713 647,995 652,041 653,941 654,945 655,699

12-03 426,850 498,014 501,956 503,092 518,524 534,333 542,823 547,957 549,594 555,849 558,464 570,604 574,640 576,539 577,897 580,050 580,949 583,170 586,170 586,207 588,281

06-04 325,907 385,945 385,772 389,058 396,251 415,440 428,635 436,600 444,281 446,921 454,036 453,112 454,372 455,047 454,344 455,772 455,122 457,070 457,035 459,080

12-04 381,108 467,766 461,701 471,685 485,323 503,498 516,115 531,163 540,831 553,694 557,335 563,315 563,984 566,266 566,219 571,770 576,461 579,968 580,931

06-05 352,777 421,070 420,417 435,730 447,088 465,941 479,950 482,536 490,482 487,630 490,548 492,824 497,301 493,471 496,920 500,184 500,883 501,239

12-05 430,299 540,114 557,336 571,638 586,318 603,840 623,343 637,145 642,682 648,043 651,615 650,782 651,039 655,867 660,703 667,430 671,384

06-06 359,607 463,856 493,400 497,541 514,448 534,088 553,137 562,316 570,660 577,993 582,994 583,382 591,791 595,508 597,678 605,238

12-06 483,532 620,464 649,593 668,189 689,973 725,448 747,977 759,902 765,574 778,738 777,553 785,929 796,474 802,213 803,478

06-07 449,581 594,864 635,097 652,746 672,247 693,818 710,114 722,293 731,017 732,584 746,540 755,965 765,017 769,840

12-07 500,601 684,929 751,882 787,445 803,256 829,580 852,549 863,866 870,078 880,266 892,985 901,739 904,091

06-08 471,690 681,294 756,082 777,287 793,340 812,635 821,863 825,972 840,124 845,896 853,704 856,145

12-08 574,292 887,613 983,573 1,001,284 1,015,709 1,023,816 1,025,180 1,038,064 1,050,477 1,060,919 1,068,248

06-09 631,269 1,012,097 1,126,781 1,123,722 1,107,749 1,105,770 1,104,257 1,113,643 1,124,129 1,136,511

12-09 900,174 1,448,718 1,585,310 1,574,593 1,569,543 1,515,820 1,543,148 1,550,041 1,564,389

06-10 979,294 1,586,589 1,691,036 1,654,638 1,534,030 1,541,573 1,554,510 1,563,444

12-10 835,339 1,044,631 1,035,079 981,534 1,021,964 1,060,769 1,084,384

06-11 428,371 519,536 540,568 567,181 620,133 651,073

12-11 462,207 555,014 575,562 605,767 646,930

06-12 376,083 460,191 495,320 520,739

12-12 426,087 542,933 587,019

06-13 385,904 510,845

12-13 507,503

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.259 1.007 1.010 1.032 1.025 1.020 1.021 1.018 1.008 1.009 1.010 1.003 1.004 1.007 1.002 1.001 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.002 0.999 0.999 1.003

12-02 1.218 1.007 1.014 1.025 1.017 1.021 1.010 1.010 1.009 1.010 1.006 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.008 1.001 1.005 1.001 1.001 1.006 1.006 1.002

06-03 1.167 0.997 1.014 1.023 1.025 1.020 1.016 1.014 1.007 1.007 1.008 1.001 1.002 1.007 1.006 1.004 1.002 1.006 1.003 1.002 1.001

12-03 1.167 1.008 1.002 1.031 1.030 1.016 1.009 1.003 1.011 1.005 1.022 1.007 1.003 1.002 1.004 1.002 1.004 1.005 1.000 1.004

06-04 1.184 1.000 1.009 1.018 1.048 1.032 1.019 1.018 1.006 1.016 0.998 1.003 1.001 0.998 1.003 0.999 1.004 1.000 1.004

12-04 1.227 0.987 1.022 1.029 1.037 1.025 1.029 1.018 1.024 1.007 1.011 1.001 1.004 1.000 1.010 1.008 1.006 1.002

06-05 1.194 0.998 1.036 1.026 1.042 1.030 1.005 1.016 0.994 1.006 1.005 1.009 0.992 1.007 1.007 1.001 1.001

12-05 1.255 1.032 1.026 1.026 1.030 1.032 1.022 1.009 1.008 1.006 0.999 1.000 1.007 1.007 1.010 1.006

06-06 1.290 1.064 1.008 1.034 1.038 1.036 1.017 1.015 1.013 1.009 1.001 1.014 1.006 1.004 1.013

12-06 1.283 1.047 1.029 1.033 1.051 1.031 1.016 1.007 1.017 0.998 1.011 1.013 1.007 1.002

06-07 1.323 1.068 1.028 1.030 1.032 1.023 1.017 1.012 1.002 1.019 1.013 1.012 1.006

12-07 1.368 1.098 1.047 1.020 1.033 1.028 1.013 1.007 1.012 1.014 1.010 1.003

06-08 1.444 1.110 1.028 1.021 1.024 1.011 1.005 1.017 1.007 1.009 1.003

12-08 1.546 1.108 1.018 1.014 1.008 1.001 1.013 1.012 1.010 1.007

06-09 1.603 1.113 0.997 0.986 0.998 0.999 1.008 1.009 1.011

12-09 1.609 1.094 0.993 0.997 0.966 1.018 1.004 1.009

06-10 1.620 1.066 0.978 0.927 1.005 1.008 1.006

12-10 1.251 0.991 0.948 1.041 1.038 1.022

06-11 1.213 1.040 1.049 1.093 1.050

12-11 1.201 1.037 1.052 1.068

06-12 1.224 1.076 1.051

12-12 1.274 1.081

06-13 1.324

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.315 1.047 1.017 1.024 1.026 1.021 1.014 1.012 1.009 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.007 1.003 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.003

Latest 6 1.248 1.049 1.012 1.019 1.011 1.010 1.008 1.011 1.010 1.009 1.006 1.009 1.004 1.003 1.008 1.003 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.003

Latest 4 1.256 1.059 1.025 1.032 1.015 1.012 1.008 1.012 1.010 1.012 1.009 1.011 1.007 1.005 1.010 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.003

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.308 1.046 1.019 1.025 1.028 1.021 1.013 1.012 1.009 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.007 1.003 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.003

Latest 8x1 1.316 1.066 1.015 1.021 1.018 1.014 1.010 1.011 1.010 1.008 1.007 1.007 1.005 1.004 1.007 1.003 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.003

Latest 6x1 1.240 1.055 1.018 1.023 1.012 1.010 1.008 1.011 1.010 1.010 1.006 1.009 1.006 1.003 1.008 1.003 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.003

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.349 1.055 1.010 1.014 1.019 1.018 1.012 1.012 1.010 1.009 1.007 1.006 1.004 1.004 1.007 1.003 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.003

Latest 6 1.247 1.046 0.997 0.999 1.004 1.010 1.008 1.011 1.010 1.009 1.006 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.008 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.003

Latest 4 1.254 1.058 1.011 1.004 1.005 1.012 1.007 1.011 1.010 1.012 1.009 1.010 1.007 1.005 1.010 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.003


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.151 1.055 1.032 1.033 1.030 1.026 1.019 1.018 1.017 1.012 1.008 1.010 1.007 1.004 1.005 1.003 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.249 1.059 1.027 1.038 1.031 1.037 1.018 1.005 1.009 1.006 1.003 1.004 1.003 0.999 1.009 1.002 1.005 1.000 1.008 1.002 1.006 0.999 1.003 1.012

KPMG 2013-12 1.274 1.065 1.051 1.068 1.031 1.016 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.009 1.006 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.008 1.004 1.004 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.012

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 1.525 1.325 1.256 1.217 1.178 1.144 1.115 1.094 1.075 1.057 1.044 1.036 1.026 1.019 1.015 1.010 1.007 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.649 1.320 1.247 1.214 1.170 1.135 1.095 1.076 1.071 1.061 1.055 1.052 1.048 1.045 1.046 1.037 1.035 1.030 1.030 1.022 1.020 1.014 1.015 1.012

KPMG 2013-12 1.770 1.389 1.305 1.241 1.163 1.128 1.110 1.099 1.088 1.077 1.067 1.061 1.052 1.047 1.044 1.036 1.032 1.028 1.025 1.022 1.019 1.016 1.014 1.012

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-MR_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:31 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 81,557 249,105 318,716 358,518 385,641 408,448 431,881 449,253 467,987 481,724 493,341 505,144 517,693 528,150 537,181 546,831 552,489 558,325 561,822 565,626 568,580 571,224 574,464 577,790

12-02 92,661 299,309 384,517 428,241 463,442 494,140 519,632 539,868 564,729 581,165 601,211 617,375 632,104 645,467 658,865 667,476 672,494 677,778 682,723 688,479 694,251 702,883 705,010

06-03 104,580 288,213 353,067 390,279 421,717 447,696 468,300 493,414 511,481 530,784 547,632 561,129 574,007 583,922 592,752 601,607 607,848 612,128 616,052 619,864 623,252 624,800

12-03 70,821 191,009 251,737 296,164 334,071 365,315 394,065 422,355 447,311 465,144 481,948 497,254 513,558 522,216 533,297 539,262 546,290 551,203 556,599 559,788 563,968

06-04 41,500 133,379 184,162 220,030 250,582 279,802 301,325 323,962 344,541 366,084 379,145 393,269 407,348 419,332 423,522 427,726 430,714 434,315 436,694 440,170

12-04 36,812 132,973 193,544 241,051 278,783 313,533 343,226 369,255 397,861 425,280 446,523 465,441 484,825 499,238 509,058 519,722 527,843 533,814 538,014

06-05 37,711 126,018 184,499 224,224 263,133 299,681 326,130 348,731 371,387 393,006 405,955 418,087 430,741 441,778 449,596 455,376 465,938 471,830

12-05 40,577 154,916 236,761 298,139 347,068 387,085 424,517 463,836 497,174 526,030 550,202 568,872 584,490 591,411 604,352 617,328 629,717

06-06 37,862 136,554 208,264 263,111 309,148 348,121 381,361 413,932 445,005 470,706 491,161 507,648 517,495 529,219 539,799 554,775

12-06 41,236 176,709 278,988 350,747 412,223 464,578 516,917 560,091 595,383 633,624 654,131 673,858 695,192 710,735 727,549

06-07 49,021 182,364 284,221 362,584 425,348 473,961 516,293 556,774 585,047 608,968 640,919 663,246 684,468 699,519

12-07 47,723 217,319 348,676 441,978 514,236 573,612 631,239 680,491 716,306 747,539 772,401 796,286 818,834

06-08 54,851 232,109 359,391 455,975 528,073 584,875 629,253 667,025 692,465 722,582 750,847 770,895

12-08 58,445 288,752 472,728 590,693 680,951 743,269 793,377 835,095 879,332 915,569 942,494

06-09 77,708 338,609 535,791 690,837 780,955 839,513 885,165 925,665 964,685 1,003,302

12-09 93,276 451,610 774,790 975,503 1,081,638 1,158,228 1,226,434 1,282,524 1,344,050

06-10 103,045 519,944 841,330 1,014,773 1,118,508 1,192,910 1,258,988 1,326,257

12-10 88,125 324,337 472,423 563,387 638,638 703,904 777,191

06-11 33,943 136,509 201,058 256,491 311,281 369,713

12-11 31,699 129,232 192,476 247,656 307,862

06-12 28,490 110,232 164,695 218,720

12-12 29,857 121,948 195,504

06-13 27,991 119,580

12-13 32,078

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 3.054 1.279 1.125 1.076 1.059 1.057 1.040 1.042 1.029 1.024 1.024 1.025 1.020 1.017 1.018 1.010 1.011 1.006 1.007 1.005 1.005 1.006 1.006

12-02 3.230 1.285 1.114 1.082 1.066 1.052 1.039 1.046 1.029 1.034 1.027 1.024 1.021 1.021 1.013 1.008 1.008 1.007 1.008 1.008 1.012 1.003

06-03 2.756 1.225 1.105 1.081 1.062 1.046 1.054 1.037 1.038 1.032 1.025 1.023 1.017 1.015 1.015 1.010 1.007 1.006 1.006 1.005 1.002

12-03 2.697 1.318 1.176 1.128 1.094 1.079 1.072 1.059 1.040 1.036 1.032 1.033 1.017 1.021 1.011 1.013 1.009 1.010 1.006 1.007

06-04 3.214 1.381 1.195 1.139 1.117 1.077 1.075 1.064 1.063 1.036 1.037 1.036 1.029 1.010 1.010 1.007 1.008 1.005 1.008

12-04 3.612 1.456 1.245 1.157 1.125 1.095 1.076 1.077 1.069 1.050 1.042 1.042 1.030 1.020 1.021 1.016 1.011 1.008

06-05 3.342 1.464 1.215 1.174 1.139 1.088 1.069 1.065 1.058 1.033 1.030 1.030 1.026 1.018 1.013 1.023 1.013

12-05 3.818 1.528 1.259 1.164 1.115 1.097 1.093 1.072 1.058 1.046 1.034 1.027 1.012 1.022 1.021 1.020

06-06 3.607 1.525 1.263 1.175 1.126 1.095 1.085 1.075 1.058 1.043 1.034 1.019 1.023 1.020 1.028

12-06 4.285 1.579 1.257 1.175 1.127 1.113 1.084 1.063 1.064 1.032 1.030 1.032 1.022 1.024

06-07 3.720 1.559 1.276 1.173 1.114 1.089 1.078 1.051 1.041 1.052 1.035 1.032 1.022

12-07 4.554 1.604 1.268 1.163 1.115 1.100 1.078 1.053 1.044 1.033 1.031 1.028

06-08 4.232 1.548 1.269 1.158 1.108 1.076 1.060 1.038 1.043 1.039 1.027

12-08 4.941 1.637 1.250 1.153 1.092 1.067 1.053 1.053 1.041 1.029

06-09 4.357 1.582 1.289 1.130 1.075 1.054 1.046 1.042 1.040

12-09 4.842 1.716 1.259 1.109 1.071 1.059 1.046 1.048

06-10 5.046 1.618 1.206 1.102 1.067 1.055 1.053

12-10 3.680 1.457 1.193 1.134 1.102 1.104

06-11 4.022 1.473 1.276 1.214 1.188

12-11 4.077 1.489 1.287 1.243

06-12 3.869 1.494 1.328

12-12 4.084 1.603

06-13 4.272

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 3.883 1.492 1.231 1.146 1.103 1.078 1.065 1.055 1.048 1.037 1.031 1.029 1.022 1.019 1.017 1.013 1.010 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.006

Latest 6 4.001 1.522 1.258 1.155 1.099 1.069 1.056 1.047 1.046 1.038 1.032 1.028 1.022 1.019 1.017 1.015 1.009 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.006

Latest 4 4.076 1.515 1.271 1.173 1.107 1.068 1.049 1.045 1.042 1.039 1.031 1.028 1.020 1.021 1.021 1.016 1.010 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.006

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 3.884 1.494 1.233 1.145 1.101 1.078 1.065 1.055 1.047 1.037 1.031 1.029 1.022 1.019 1.016 1.013 1.009 1.007 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.006

Latest 8x1 4.194 1.543 1.261 1.150 1.094 1.075 1.061 1.052 1.047 1.038 1.032 1.031 1.023 1.019 1.016 1.013 1.009 1.007 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.006

Latest 6x1 4.013 1.515 1.257 1.147 1.085 1.064 1.053 1.048 1.042 1.037 1.032 1.029 1.023 1.020 1.017 1.015 1.009 1.007 1.007 1.006 1.005 1.004 1.006

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 3.865 1.505 1.227 1.136 1.095 1.074 1.061 1.053 1.046 1.037 1.031 1.029 1.021 1.019 1.017 1.013 1.009 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.006

Latest 6 3.923 1.540 1.238 1.131 1.086 1.067 1.054 1.047 1.045 1.037 1.031 1.028 1.022 1.019 1.018 1.015 1.009 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.006

Latest 4 4.075 1.514 1.248 1.141 1.087 1.065 1.049 1.046 1.042 1.037 1.031 1.028 1.020 1.021 1.021 1.017 1.010 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.006


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 4.076 1.515 1.271 1.173 1.107 1.067 1.054 1.047 1.045 1.037 1.031 1.028 1.022 1.019 1.018 1.015 1.009 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.006 1.053

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 16.369 4.016 2.651 2.086 1.778 1.607 1.507 1.429 1.365 1.306 1.259 1.221 1.187 1.162 1.140 1.120 1.103 1.093 1.085 1.078 1.070 1.063 1.059 1.053

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-MR_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:31 PM






06-02 34,083 30,809 29,788 29,354 29,210 29,158 29,151 29,017 29,021 29,025 29,024 29,025 29,005 29,019 29,016 29,018 29,016 29,021 29,022 29,026 29,024 29,023 29,022 29,022

12-02 40,235 35,818 34,051 33,616 33,463 33,382 33,176 33,161 33,175 33,168 33,182 33,168 33,181 33,183 33,186 33,192 33,196 33,199 33,200 33,201 33,204 33,220 33,236

06-03 38,862 34,598 33,223 32,871 32,809 32,532 32,545 32,533 32,477 32,496 32,487 32,486 32,479 32,477 32,480 32,493 32,492 32,490 32,487 32,497 32,516 32,530

12-03 35,590 30,040 28,611 28,242 27,774 27,795 27,765 27,699 27,712 27,699 27,709 27,722 27,723 27,730 27,732 27,728 27,728 27,729 27,731 27,737 27,737

06-04 29,424 25,189 24,201 23,328 23,269 23,242 23,222 23,221 23,187 23,202 23,209 23,200 23,194 23,219 23,217 23,221 23,216 23,212 23,213 23,208

12-04 30,636 26,301 23,961 23,765 23,748 23,692 23,690 23,581 23,600 23,607 23,614 23,611 23,610 23,604 23,601 23,596 23,601 23,601 23,603

06-05 26,571 22,026 21,315 21,160 21,090 21,114 20,983 21,007 21,003 21,009 21,011 21,024 21,019 21,021 21,019 21,033 21,056 21,071

12-05 29,379 25,979 24,939 24,613 24,570 24,359 24,418 24,382 24,392 24,380 24,385 24,382 24,394 24,393 24,398 24,403 24,422

06-06 26,869 23,664 22,851 22,677 22,284 22,350 22,344 22,337 22,317 22,320 22,325 22,324 22,324 22,332 22,341 22,340

12-06 29,948 26,275 25,310 24,652 24,759 24,710 24,695 24,661 24,664 24,662 24,661 24,655 24,655 24,650 24,654

06-07 28,651 24,995 23,616 23,666 23,614 23,583 23,576 23,587 23,577 23,576 23,573 23,580 23,576 23,578

12-07 29,848 25,938 25,542 25,342 25,297 25,284 25,276 25,242 25,233 25,239 25,240 25,251 25,249

06-08 26,096 24,260 23,689 23,564 23,565 23,538 23,548 23,559 23,564 23,581 23,593 23,600

12-08 29,546 26,802 26,012 25,821 25,834 25,814 25,813 25,791 25,790 25,820 25,835

06-09 29,250 26,587 25,946 25,789 25,737 25,703 25,694 25,669 25,655 25,669

12-09 34,946 31,635 30,539 30,290 30,265 30,126 30,138 30,109 30,073

06-10 35,665 31,855 30,811 30,503 30,187 30,175 30,137 30,111

12-10 36,561 32,122 30,503 29,929 29,902 29,951 29,903

06-11 30,063 26,000 25,050 24,874 24,951 24,976

12-11 32,099 27,164 26,217 26,028 26,050

06-12 28,291 23,473 22,824 22,680

12-12 30,955 25,957 25,266

06-13 28,457 24,256

12-13 34,500

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 0.904 0.967 0.985 0.995 0.998 1.000 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 0.890 0.951 0.987 0.995 0.998 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.890 0.960 0.989 0.998 0.992 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

12-03 0.844 0.952 0.987 0.983 1.001 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 0.856 0.961 0.964 0.997 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 0.858 0.911 0.992 0.999 0.998 1.000 0.995 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 0.829 0.968 0.993 0.997 1.001 0.994 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001

12-05 0.884 0.960 0.987 0.998 0.991 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

06-06 0.881 0.966 0.992 0.983 1.003 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 0.877 0.963 0.974 1.004 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 0.872 0.945 1.002 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 0.869 0.985 0.992 0.998 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 0.930 0.976 0.995 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000

12-08 0.907 0.971 0.993 1.001 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.001

06-09 0.909 0.976 0.994 0.998 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.001

12-09 0.905 0.965 0.992 0.999 0.995 1.000 0.999 0.999

06-10 0.893 0.967 0.990 0.990 1.000 0.999 0.999

12-10 0.879 0.950 0.981 0.999 1.002 0.998

06-11 0.865 0.963 0.993 1.003 1.001

12-11 0.846 0.965 0.993 1.001

06-12 0.830 0.972 0.994

12-12 0.839 0.973

06-13 0.852

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 0.874 0.962 0.989 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.852 0.965 0.990 0.998 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.842 0.969 0.990 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 0.874 0.964 0.990 0.997 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 0.862 0.968 0.992 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 0.851 0.967 0.992 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 0.875 0.962 0.989 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.853 0.965 0.990 0.998 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.842 0.968 0.990 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 0.863 0.965 0.990 0.998 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 0.854 0.965 0.990 0.998 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.853 0.965 0.990 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 0.821 0.951 0.986 0.996 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 0.812 0.951 0.986 0.996 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.812 0.952 0.987 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-MR_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:31 PM






06-02 16,837 27,381 28,299 28,527 28,663 28,747 28,825 28,873 28,912 28,946 28,967 28,977 28,981 28,999 29,004 29,007 29,011 29,014 29,016 29,019 29,020 29,020 29,020 29,020

12-02 17,381 31,303 32,279 32,583 32,731 32,886 32,952 32,998 33,039 33,068 33,093 33,125 33,138 33,152 33,169 33,175 33,182 33,187 33,191 33,193 33,194 33,212 33,226

06-03 19,481 30,574 31,512 31,847 32,114 32,223 32,312 32,349 32,373 32,406 32,438 32,455 32,459 32,463 32,467 32,472 32,477 32,479 32,479 32,485 32,505 32,520

12-03 14,436 25,455 26,617 27,084 27,310 27,454 27,525 27,567 27,616 27,650 27,670 27,687 27,698 27,705 27,710 27,714 27,715 27,716 27,719 27,729 27,730

06-04 11,990 21,038 22,313 22,675 22,857 22,976 23,051 23,088 23,128 23,154 23,168 23,173 23,173 23,185 23,190 23,196 23,197 23,197 23,198 23,199

12-04 10,811 21,551 22,686 23,049 23,243 23,390 23,467 23,506 23,541 23,558 23,567 23,575 23,580 23,584 23,585 23,586 23,588 23,592 23,594

06-05 10,453 19,072 20,168 20,501 20,708 20,851 20,895 20,935 20,955 20,969 20,975 20,986 20,998 21,002 21,005 21,016 21,041 21,058

12-05 10,514 22,191 23,461 23,867 24,082 24,173 24,272 24,299 24,322 24,343 24,357 24,361 24,380 24,381 24,383 24,393 24,411

06-06 10,339 20,060 21,429 21,859 22,050 22,204 22,237 22,257 22,268 22,285 22,303 22,306 22,314 22,316 22,323 22,326

12-06 10,775 22,469 23,809 24,206 24,427 24,512 24,549 24,580 24,594 24,611 24,625 24,626 24,630 24,632 24,637

06-07 11,332 21,344 22,709 23,177 23,325 23,403 23,452 23,486 23,517 23,532 23,545 23,555 23,562 23,563

12-07 10,349 23,039 24,471 24,834 24,991 25,065 25,115 25,154 25,165 25,179 25,195 25,204 25,218

06-08 11,289 21,587 22,844 23,146 23,289 23,375 23,436 23,476 23,499 23,516 23,539 23,561

12-08 10,392 23,497 24,937 25,307 25,529 25,627 25,676 25,705 25,723 25,776 25,803

06-09 11,752 23,493 24,773 25,173 25,377 25,463 25,523 25,563 25,582 25,611

12-09 12,616 27,111 28,884 29,485 29,724 29,837 29,908 29,955 29,977

06-10 12,219 26,705 28,928 29,429 29,678 29,804 29,869 29,921

12-10 11,371 25,404 27,895 28,638 28,991 29,227 29,383

06-11 9,745 21,318 23,306 23,813 24,141 24,368

12-11 9,932 22,598 24,420 25,037 25,341

06-12 9,371 19,835 21,393 21,884

12-12 9,978 21,902 23,758

06-13 9,513 20,446

12-13 10,707

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.626 1.034 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.801 1.031 1.009 1.005 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-03 1.569 1.031 1.011 1.008 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

12-03 1.763 1.046 1.018 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.755 1.061 1.016 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.993 1.053 1.016 1.008 1.006 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.825 1.057 1.017 1.010 1.007 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001

12-05 2.111 1.057 1.017 1.009 1.004 1.004 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

06-06 1.940 1.068 1.020 1.009 1.007 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 2.085 1.060 1.017 1.009 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.884 1.064 1.021 1.006 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 2.226 1.062 1.015 1.006 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001

06-08 1.912 1.058 1.013 1.006 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001

12-08 2.261 1.061 1.015 1.009 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.001

06-09 1.999 1.054 1.016 1.008 1.003 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001

12-09 2.149 1.065 1.021 1.008 1.004 1.002 1.002 1.001

06-10 2.186 1.083 1.017 1.008 1.004 1.002 1.002

12-10 2.234 1.098 1.027 1.012 1.008 1.005

06-11 2.188 1.093 1.022 1.014 1.009

12-11 2.275 1.081 1.025 1.012

06-12 2.117 1.079 1.023

12-12 2.195 1.085

06-13 2.149

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 2.011 1.063 1.017 1.009 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.193 1.086 1.022 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.184 1.084 1.024 1.012 1.006 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 2.019 1.063 1.017 1.008 1.005 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 2.183 1.081 1.021 1.010 1.005 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 2.191 1.085 1.023 1.010 1.005 1.002 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.977 1.062 1.017 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.195 1.087 1.022 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.185 1.084 1.024 1.012 1.006 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 2.195 1.087 1.022 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 2.495 1.137 1.046 1.023 1.013 1.007 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-MR_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:31 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Medical Expenses





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 228 201 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 22,475 20,000 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 1.01% 1.05% 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 275 243 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 24,525 22,878 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 1.12% 1.05% 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 249 240 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 22,201 23,397 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 1.12% 1.04% 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 218 291 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 23,417 26,765 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.93% 1.04% 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 176 167 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 22,233 23,047 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.79% 0.78% 5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 218 202 6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 27,746 26,364 6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.79% 0.78% 6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 190 200 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 26,701 26,962 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.71% 0.78% 7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 246 242 8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 30,974 30,842 8 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.79% 0.77% 8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 223 240 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 30,355 31,541 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.74% 0.77% 9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 289 290 10 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 36,806 36,081 10 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.78% 0.77% 10 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 282 287 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 37,090 36,899 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.76% 0.77% 11 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 322 347 12 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 40,861 42,210 12 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.79% 0.76% 12 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 307 344 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 41,399 43,167 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.74% 0.76% 13 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 376 416 14 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 47,486 49,380 14 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.79% 0.76% 14 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 411 412 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 51,275 50,499 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.80% 0.76% 15 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 556 498 16 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 60,843 57,767 16 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.91% 0.75% 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 567 493 17 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 60,823 59,077 17 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.93% 0.75% 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 385 324 18 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.0% 42,904 39,682 18 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.0% 0.90% 0.75% 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2011-06 0.0% 242 240 19 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.0% 31,856 31,606 19 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.0% 0.76% 0.75% 19 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2011-12 0.0% 241 261 20 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.0% 31,312 33,542 20 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.0% 0.77% 0.74% 20 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2012-06 0.0% 209 234 21 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.7 0.0% 30,865 31,823 21 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.7 0.0% 0.68% 0.74% 21 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2012-12 0.0% 241 255 22 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.7 0.0% 33,153 33,772 22 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.7 0.0% 0.73% 0.74% 22 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2013-06 0.0% 227 227 23 0.0 1.0 1.0 5.7 0.0% 33,177 32,042 23 0.0 1.0 1.0 5.7 0.0% 0.68% 0.74% 23 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2013-12 0.0% 278 248 24 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.7 0.0% 34,618 34,004 24 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.7 0.0% 0.80% 0.74% 24 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

(26) Indicated Trend 9.4% 10.5% (41.9%) (51.7%) (9.8%) (26) Indicated Trend 8.2% 5.8% (15.8%) (48.1%) (7.2%) (26) Indicated Trend (0.3%) 0.0% (24.7%) 0.0% 0.0%


(28) t-value => observed 10.8 2.1 (4.1) (4.0) (3.8) (28) t-value => observed 18.4 2.3 (3.1) (7.2) (5.4) (28) t-value => observed (1.4) n/a (6.2) n/a n/a

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 (29) t-value => critical 2.1 n/a 2.1 n/a n/a







(36) Selected Trend 8.2% 5.8% (36.6%) (48.1%) (7.2%) (36) Selected Trend 8.2% 5.8% (15.8%) (48.1%) (7.2%) (36) Selected Trend 0.0% 0.0% (24.7%) 0.0% 0.0% Pre-reform annual trend 17.0% 17.0% Pre-reform annual trend 17.0% 17.0% Pre-reform annual trend 0.0% 0.0%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend 0.7% 0.7% Post-reform annual trend 0.7% 0.7% Post-reform annual trend 0.0% 0.0%

See Segment VII - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate -48.1% -48.1% Reform impact estimate -48.1% -48.1% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6



0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-MR_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 3:19 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Medical Expenses





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 774,521 2,860,797 8.9% 228 22,475 1.01%

2002-12 889,957 2,966,797 8.9% 275 24,525 1.12%

2003-06 999,853 2,896,601 8.4% 249 22,201 1.12% 9.4% (1.2%) 10.7%

2003-12 1,202,043 2,979,855 8.4% 218 23,417 0.93% (20.7%) (4.5%) (16.9%)

2004-06 1,291,069 2,925,524 10.0% 176 22,233 0.79% (29.3%) 0.1% (29.4%)

2004-12 1,324,802 3,001,194 10.0% 218 27,746 0.79% 0.1% 18.5% (15.5%)

2005-06 1,256,964 2,960,882 9.2% 190 26,701 0.71% 7.7% 20.1% (10.3%)

2005-12 1,256,815 3,078,987 9.2% 246 30,974 0.79% 12.6% 11.6% 0.9%

2006-06 1,212,557 3,038,078 8.2% 223 30,355 0.74% 17.5% 13.7% 3.3%

2006-12 1,230,875 3,144,169 8.2% 289 36,806 0.78% 17.5% 18.8% (1.1%)

2007-06 1,194,370 3,098,545 8.5% 282 37,090 0.76% 26.4% 22.2% 3.5%

2007-12 1,218,557 3,207,340 8.5% 322 40,861 0.79% 11.5% 11.0% 0.4%

2008-06 1,204,576 3,178,856 7.6% 307 41,399 0.74% 8.9% 11.6% (2.4%)

2008-12 1,254,968 3,266,401 7.6% 376 47,486 0.79% 16.8% 16.2% 0.5%

2009-06 1,279,988 3,198,648 7.5% 411 51,275 0.80% 33.9% 23.9% 8.1%

2009-12 1,411,969 3,293,403 7.5% 556 60,843 0.91% 47.9% 28.1% 15.4%

2010-06 1,543,434 3,228,358 6.6% 567 60,823 0.93% 37.9% 18.6% 16.2%

2010-12 1,773,927 3,335,641 6.6% 385 42,904 0.90% (30.8%) (29.5%) (1.8%)

2011-06 1,769,261 3,280,780 8.3% 242 31,856 0.76% (57.3%) (47.6%) (18.4%)

2011-12 1,839,929 3,385,888 8.3% 241 31,312 0.77% (37.4%) (27.0%) (14.3%)

2012-06 1,861,392 3,342,058 8.0% 209 30,865 0.68% (13.9%) (3.1%) (11.1%)

2012-12 1,921,802 3,432,868 8.0% 241 33,153 0.73% 0.1% 5.9% (5.5%)

2013-06 1,873,598 3,373,945 8.0% 227 33,177 0.68% 8.8% 7.5% 1.2%

2013-12 1,859,220 3,482,060 8.0% 278 34,618 0.80% 15.6% 4.4% 10.7%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment VII - Page 8b.

(4) From GISA.

(5)-(7) From Segment VII - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-MR_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 4:17 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Medical Expenses

($000)




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 591,845 577,790 29,022 1.012 1.053 1.000 598,947 608,189 29,022 598,947 29,022

2002-12 738,133 705,010 33,236 1.014 1.059 1.000 748,485 746,399 33,236 748,485 33,236

2003-06 655,699 624,800 32,530 1.016 1.063 1.000 666,224 664,267 32,530 666,224 32,530

2003-12 588,281 563,968 27,737 1.019 1.070 1.000 599,175 603,669 27,737 599,175 27,737

2004-06 459,080 440,170 23,208 1.022 1.078 1.000 469,064 474,310 23,208 469,064 23,208

2004-12 580,931 538,014 23,603 1.025 1.085 1.000 595,347 583,813 23,603 595,347 23,603

2005-06 501,239 471,830 21,071 1.028 1.093 1.000 515,218 515,696 21,071 515,218 21,071

2005-12 671,384 629,717 24,422 1.032 1.103 1.000 692,710 694,601 24,422 692,710 24,422

2006-06 605,238 554,775 22,340 1.036 1.120 1.000 626,742 621,099 22,340 626,742 22,340

2006-12 803,478 727,549 24,654 1.044 1.140 1.000 838,646 829,054 24,654 838,646 24,654

2007-06 769,840 699,519 23,578 1.047 1.162 1.000 806,006 812,638 23,578 806,006 23,578

2007-12 904,091 818,834 25,249 1.052 1.187 1.000 950,864 972,161 25,249 950,864 25,249

2008-06 856,145 770,895 23,600 1.061 1.221 1.000 908,013 941,287 23,600 908,013 23,600

2008-12 1,068,248 942,494 25,835 1.067 1.259 1.000 1,140,147 1,186,934 25,835 1,140,147 25,835

2009-06 1,136,511 1,003,302 25,669 1.077 1.306 1.000 1,224,353 1,310,666 25,669 1,224,353 25,669

2009-12 1,564,389 1,344,050 30,073 1.088 1.365 1.000 1,702,063 1,834,366 30,073 1,702,063 30,073

2010-06 1,563,444 1,326,257 30,111 1.099 1.429 1.000 1,718,045 1,895,805 30,111 1,718,045 30,111

2010-12 1,084,384 777,191 29,903 1.110 1.507 1.000 1,203,530 1,170,874 29,903 1,203,530 29,903

2011-06 651,073 369,713 24,976 1.128 1.607 1.000 734,335 594,072 24,965 734,335 24,965

2011-12 646,930 307,862 26,050 1.163 1.778 0.999 752,229 547,524 26,018 752,229 26,018

2012-06 520,739 218,720 22,680 1.241 2.086 0.997 646,369 456,333 22,609 646,369 22,609

2012-12 587,019 195,504 25,266 1.305 2.651 0.987 765,807 518,329 24,938 765,807 24,938

2013-06 510,845 119,580 24,256 1.389 4.016 0.952 709,652 480,270 23,093 709,652 23,093

2013-12 507,503 32,078 34,500 1.770 16.369 0.812 898,098 525,081 28,008 898,098 28,008

Total 18,566,469 14,759,621 633,569 20,510,070 19,587,439 625,471 20,510,070 625,471

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment VII - Page 3.





IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-MR_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:19 PM



Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - AB - Medical Expenses




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 774,521 2,860,797 598,947 29,022 77.3% 209 20,638 1.01%

2002-12 889,957 2,966,797 748,485 33,236 84.1% 252 22,520 1.12%

2003-06 999,853 2,896,601 666,224 32,530 66.6% 230 20,480 1.12%

2003-12 1,202,043 2,979,855 599,175 27,737 49.8% 201 21,602 0.93%

2004-06 1,291,069 2,925,524 469,064 23,208 36.3% 160 20,212 0.79%

2004-12 1,324,802 3,001,194 595,347 23,603 44.9% 198 25,223 0.79%

2005-06 1,256,964 2,960,882 515,218 21,071 41.0% 174 24,452 0.71%

2005-12 1,256,815 3,078,987 692,710 24,422 55.1% 225 28,364 0.79%

2006-06 1,212,557 3,038,078 626,742 22,340 51.7% 206 28,055 0.74%

2006-12 1,230,875 3,144,169 838,646 24,654 68.1% 267 34,017 0.78%

2007-06 1,194,370 3,098,545 806,006 23,578 67.5% 260 34,185 0.76%

2007-12 1,218,557 3,207,340 950,864 25,249 78.0% 296 37,659 0.79%

2008-06 1,204,576 3,178,856 908,013 23,600 75.4% 286 38,475 0.74%

2008-12 1,254,968 3,266,401 1,140,147 25,835 90.9% 349 44,132 0.79%

2009-06 1,279,988 3,198,648 1,224,353 25,669 95.7% 383 47,698 0.80%

2009-12 1,411,969 3,293,403 1,702,063 30,073 120.5% 517 56,598 0.91%

2010-06 1,543,434 3,228,358 1,718,045 30,111 111.3% 532 57,057 0.93%

2010-12 1,773,927 3,335,641 1,203,530 29,903 67.8% 361 40,248 0.90%

2011-06 1,769,261 3,280,780 734,335 24,965 41.5% 224 29,415 0.76%

2011-12 1,839,929 3,385,888 752,229 26,018 40.9% 222 28,912 0.77%

2012-06 1,861,392 3,342,058 646,369 22,609 34.7% 193 28,589 0.68%

2012-12 1,921,802 3,432,868 765,807 24,938 39.8% 223 30,709 0.73%

2013-06 1,873,598 3,373,945 709,652 23,093 37.9% 210 30,731 0.68%

2013-12 1,859,220 3,482,060 898,098 28,008 48.3% 258 32,065 0.80%

Total 33,446,446 75,957,675 20,510,070 625,471 61.3% 270 32,791 0.82%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment VII - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-AB-MR_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:19 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment VIII


AB - Supplementary


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 6 6 6 6 115 6 0 6 0

12-02 151 151 151 151 119 151 0 151 0

06-03 434 430 434 430 116 434 0 434 0

12-03 14 14 14 14 120 14 0 14 0

06-04 179 179 179 179 117 179 0 179 0

12-04 80 80 80 80 121 80 0 80 0

06-05 2 2 2 2 119 2 (0) 2 0

12-05 152 152 152 152 124 152 0 152 0

06-06 0 0 (4) 0 122 0 (0) 0 0

12-06 29 30 26 30 126 29 (1) 29 0

06-07 47 45 50 45 124 47 2 47 0

12-07 159 154 158 154 129 159 5 159 0

06-08 93 85 96 85 128 93 8 93 0

12-08 208 177 196 177 131 208 31 208 0

06-09 230 216 223 216 128 223 9 230 (7)

12-09 371 253 291 250 132 291 44 371 (80)

06-10 53 47 74 62 130 74 36 53 21

12-10 24 10 57 40 134 57 40 24 33

06-11 96 101 108 112 132 108 44 96 12

12-11 23 32 63 86 136 63 47 23 39

06-12 20 38 68 105 134 68 57 20 49

12-12 14 34 74 115 138 74 67 14 60

06-13 46 3 94 118 136 94 72 46 48

12-13 94 208 122 142 140 122 84 94 27

Total 2,526 2,446 2,715 2,751 3,051 2,729 546 2,526 203

GISA 2,526 2,526

Diff 0.00% 8.02%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment VIII, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment VIII, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-SUP_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:29 PM



AB - Supplementary


NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 2,860,797 0 0 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 42,944

12-02 2,966,797 4 4 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 37,836 37,836 42,944

06-03 2,896,601 8 8 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 53,773 54,205 42,944

12-03 2,979,855 3 3 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 4,685 4,685 42,944

06-04 2,925,524 1 1 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 179,274 179,274 42,944

12-04 3,001,194 2 2 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 40,064 40,064 42,944

06-05 2,960,882 2 2 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 1,060 1,059 42,944

12-05 3,078,987 4 4 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 37,987 37,987 42,944

06-06 3,038,078 1 1 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 406 391 42,944

12-06 3,144,169 6 6 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 4,928 4,805 42,944

06-07 3,098,545 1 1 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 45,045 46,802 42,944

12-07 3,207,340 6 6 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 25,740 26,512 42,944

06-08 3,178,856 1 1 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 84,858 93,089 42,944

12-08 3,266,401 4 4 4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 44,148 52,006 42,944

06-09 3,198,648 2 2 2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 108,723 115,081 42,944

12-09 3,293,403 3 3 4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 85,183 123,779 42,944

06-10 3,228,358 1 1 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 41,990 52,726 42,944

12-10 3,335,641 3 3 4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 2,918 7,988 42,944

06-11 3,280,780 2 2 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 42,406 47,132 42,944

12-11 3,385,888 5 6 4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 5,139 4,768 42,944

06-12 3,342,058 1 1 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 29,453 17,969 42,944

12-12 3,432,868 2 3 4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 10,375 6,250 42,944

06-13 3,373,945 5 0 3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 9,969 42,944

12-13 3,482,060 4 2 4 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 34,815 22,928 42,944

Total 75,957,675 71 67 70 71

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment VIII, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-SUP_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:29 PM



AB - Supplementary


Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 12 0 0 16 0 0 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

12-02 64 59 178 150 150 150 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151

06-03 10 7 11 11 54 54 54 53 53 62 24 24 252 248 434 434 434 434 434 434 434 434

12-03 0 1 6 8 48 40 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

06-04 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 206 206 206 206 206 179 179 179 179 179 179 179

12-04 30 31 31 30 30 23 25 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

06-05 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

12-05 10 70 70 74 72 72 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 162 152 152

06-06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12-06 9 54 64 57 57 57 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

06-07 0 20 0 0 0 98 98 82 45 45 45 45 45 45

12-07 9 9 19 39 140 162 239 154 154 154 154 154 154

06-08 0 5 19 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 85 85

12-08 0 20 0 36 124 177 284 284 177 177 177

06-09 42 127 127 280 280 280 280 240 215 215

12-09 160 100 85 259 354 358 247 247 247

06-10 30 15 122 137 178 128 128 38

12-10 52 56 52 67 87 17 17

06-11 61 24 288 64 64 64

12-11 128 135 14 15 15

06-12 48 76 11 11

12-12 14 8 7

06-13 35 21

12-13 38

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 0.031 1.000 41.909 0.024 1.000 15.259 1.000 1.000 1.042 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 0.908 3.041 0.845 1.000 0.998 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.721 1.537 1.000 4.995 1.000 1.000 0.975 1.000 1.180 0.389 1.000 10.454 0.986 1.746 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.855 8.737 1.503 5.775 0.826 0.352 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 0.220 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 463.416 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.869 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.017 1.000 0.990 1.000 0.759 1.075 3.246 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.000 1.077 1.000 1.328 0.753 0.779 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 6.931 1.000 1.057 0.973 1.000 2.259 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.938 1.000

06-06 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 6.070 1.181 0.891 1.000 1.000 0.524 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 0.000 1.000 0.833 0.552 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.000 2.094 2.012 3.626 1.158 1.480 0.645 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-08 3.882 6.676 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.679 1.000

12-08 84.333 0.012 148.279 3.474 1.429 1.609 1.000 0.622 1.000 1.000

06-09 3.024 1.000 2.202 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.857 0.896 1.000

12-09 0.625 0.850 3.053 1.366 1.012 0.688 1.000 1.000

06-10 0.502 8.086 1.124 1.303 0.718 1.000 0.297

12-10 1.077 0.936 1.278 1.296 0.193 1.000

06-11 0.391 12.082 0.222 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.052 0.105 1.076 1.000

06-12 1.576 0.148 1.000

12-12 0.575 0.943

06-13 0.613

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 5.676 2.306 10.906 1.745 0.936 1.835 28.251 0.942 1.015 0.933 1.000 1.788 0.987 1.075 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.881 3.717 1.292 1.161 0.892 1.050 0.800 0.845 1.000 0.947 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.990 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.954 3.319 0.894 1.150 0.731 0.922 0.789 0.879 1.000 0.920 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.620 1.932 3.868 1.609 0.952 1.089 1.103 0.966 1.003 0.973 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 0.741 1.994 1.622 1.161 0.981 1.080 0.888 0.920 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 0.829 2.528 1.120 1.150 0.932 1.000 0.875 0.879 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.133 1.353 1.256 1.301 0.967 1.068 1.015 0.908 1.007 0.936 1.000 1.260 0.968 1.212 0.990 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.947 1.580 0.966 1.190 0.942 0.996 0.835 0.851 1.000 0.925 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.977 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.068 1.324 0.430 1.217 0.830 0.857 0.862 0.852 1.000 0.920 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.959 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.209 1.085 1.088 1.132 1.026 1.043 1.050 0.910 1.426 0.907 1.075 1.084 0.996 1.049 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.170 1.107 1.115 1.135 1.026 1.044 1.033 0.921 1.404 0.910 1.074 1.065 0.991 1.066 1.014 0.962 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.170 1.107 1.115 1.135 1.026 1.044 1.033 0.921 1.404 0.910 1.074 1.065 0.991 1.066 1.014 0.962 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 2.605 2.155 1.986 1.825 1.612 1.571 1.506 1.434 1.576 1.105 1.218 1.133 1.045 1.049 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 2.514 2.149 1.941 1.741 1.534 1.495 1.432 1.386 1.505 1.072 1.178 1.097 1.030 1.039 0.975 0.962 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 2.514 2.149 1.941 1.741 1.534 1.495 1.432 1.386 1.505 1.072 1.178 1.097 1.030 1.039 0.975 0.962 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-SUP_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:29 PM



AB - Supplementary



Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

12-02 1 59 90 107 126 143 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151

06-03 7 7 9 9 13 13 13 14 14 24 24 24 28 28 422 430 430 430 430 430 430 430

12-03 0 1 5 5 6 10 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14

06-04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179 179

12-04 0 5 5 4 11 23 25 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

06-05 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

12-05 2 62 62 62 62 62 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152

06-06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12-06 9 9 13 15 15 15 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

06-07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 45 45 45 45 45 45

12-07 9 9 9 14 79 122 139 154 154 154 154 154 154

06-08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 65 78 85 85

12-08 0 0 0 1 124 177 177 177 177 177 177

06-09 0 0 46 80 133 164 189 215 215 215

12-09 1 18 18 84 130 227 247 247 247

06-10 0 0 17 28 32 38 38 38

12-10 3 10 17 19 7 7 7

06-11 1 1 64 64 64 64

12-11 0 6 14 15 15

06-12 0 11 11 11

12-12 2 7 7

06-13 0 0

12-13 5

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 15.259 1.000 1.000 1.042 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 53.039 1.539 1.191 1.172 1.135 1.060 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.000 1.393 1.000 1.326 1.000 1.000 1.120 1.000 1.675 1.024 1.000 1.152 1.000 15.207 1.019 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.855 7.149 1.136 1.147 1.678 1.409 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 402.863 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 12.748 1.000 0.937 2.581 1.997 1.075 3.246 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.000 1.077 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.779 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 29.948 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.463 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.000 1.426 1.163 1.000 1.000 2.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 10.069 12.324 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.000 1.000 1.498 5.800 1.538 1.141 1.107 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.752 1.189 1.091 1.000

12-08 1.000 1.000 3.813 135.103 1.429 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.728 1.673 1.230 1.153 1.135 1.000 1.000

12-09 34.352 1.000 4.710 1.547 1.747 1.085 1.000 1.000

06-10 264.547 1.627 1.180 1.171 1.000 1.000

12-10 3.048 1.797 1.115 0.391 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.000 58.261 1.002 1.000 1.000

12-11 16.784 2.239 1.076 1.000

06-12 1.000 1.000

12-12 4.178 1.016

06-13

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 11.568 18.392 1.473 8.884 1.231 2.090 1.730 26.871 1.060 1.008 1.000 1.013 1.000 2.421 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 6.252 54.810 1.755 1.132 1.263 1.048 1.048 3.013 1.031 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 7.321 15.629 1.048 0.893 1.229 1.060 1.034 1.188 1.047 1.023 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 8.993 4.936 1.315 1.527 1.195 1.243 1.186 1.863 1.018 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 8.003 12.862 1.727 1.280 1.274 1.057 1.048 1.125 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 3.613 15.828 1.205 1.182 1.207 1.028 1.036 1.188 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 5.097 1.660 1.361 1.608 1.324 1.185 1.085 1.194 1.017 1.007 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.614 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 3.818 3.676 1.567 1.321 1.380 1.073 1.051 1.083 1.018 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 4.564 3.721 1.030 0.947 1.439 1.102 1.039 1.042 1.020 1.016 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 5.097 1.660 1.361 1.608 1.324 1.185 1.085 1.194 1.017 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 38.581 7.570 4.559 3.350 2.083 1.573 1.327 1.223 1.024 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-SUP_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:29 PM



AB - Supplementary



06-02 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12-02 1 3 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

06-03 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

12-03 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

06-04 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

12-04 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

06-05 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

12-05 1 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4

06-06 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

12-06 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

06-07 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

12-07 1 1 2 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

06-08 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

12-08 0 1 0 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4

06-09 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

12-09 7 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

06-10 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 1

12-10 3 3 3 3 7 3 3

06-11 3 3 3 2 2 2

12-11 8 10 5 5 5

06-12 4 3 1 1

12-12 7 2 2

06-13 6 4

12-13 3

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 0.000

12-02 3.000 2.000 0.833 1.000 0.800 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.750 1.333 1.000 1.250 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.200 1.000 1.000 1.167 1.000 1.143 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.000 1.000 2.000 1.500 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 3.000 1.000 1.333 1.000 1.000 1.250 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.800 1.000

06-06 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.250 1.200 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.000 2.000 1.500 1.667 1.000 1.200 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 0.000 1.000 1.333 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.000 1.000 0.667 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 0.429 0.667 1.500 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 0.500 2.000 1.000 1.500 0.667 1.000 0.500

12-10 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.333 0.429 1.000

06-11 1.000 1.000 0.667 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.250 0.500 1.000 1.000

06-12 0.750 0.333 1.000

12-12 0.286 1.000

06-13 0.667

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.049 1.002 1.088 1.125 0.952 0.997 1.033 1.000 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.015 1.000 1.016 0.975 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.825 0.972 1.028 1.306 0.905 1.000 0.917 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.967 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.738 0.708 0.917 1.458 0.774 1.000 0.875 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.950 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 0.993 1.002 1.056 1.120 0.962 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 0.724 0.861 0.933 1.083 0.944 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 0.854 0.875 1.000 1.125 0.917 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 0.850 0.940 1.022 1.160 0.906 1.021 1.000 1.000 1.023 1.000 1.000 1.027 1.000 1.032 0.962 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.806 0.727 1.000 1.294 0.800 1.000 0.944 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.929 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.760 0.611 0.917 1.417 0.667 1.000 0.909 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.900 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.205 0.951 1.000 1.046 0.997 1.014 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.186 0.949 1.012 1.050 0.996 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.186 1.002 1.056 1.120 0.962 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 1.216 1.009 1.061 1.061 1.014 1.017 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.204 1.015 1.070 1.057 1.007 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.371 1.155 1.153 1.093 0.976 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-SUP_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:29 PM



AB - Supplementary



06-02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12-02 0 3 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

06-03 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

12-03 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

06-04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

12-04 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

06-05 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

12-05 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

06-06 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

12-06 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

06-07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

12-07 1 1 1 2 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6

06-08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1

12-08 0 0 0 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 4

06-09 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

12-09 0 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3

06-10 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1

12-10 1 2 2 3 3 3 3

06-11 0 0 2 2 2 2

12-11 0 4 5 5 5

06-12 0 1 1 1

12-12 1 2 2

06-13 0 0

12-13 1

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02

12-02 1.667 1.000 1.000 0.800 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.000 1.333 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.250 1.200 1.000 1.167 1.000 1.143 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.000 2.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.500 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 3.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.333 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.000 1.250 1.200 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.000 1.000 2.000 2.000 1.250 1.000 1.200 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 3.000 1.333 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 2.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.000 3.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 2.000 1.000 1.500 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.250 1.000 1.000

06-12 1.000 1.000

12-12 2.000 1.000

06-13

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.444 1.179 1.294 1.188 1.026 1.060 1.092 1.000 1.018 1.015 1.000 1.015 1.000 1.016 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.000 1.063 1.417 1.000 1.056 1.000 1.040 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.000 1.083 1.125 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.286 1.125 1.193 1.071 1.019 1.028 1.018 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 2.000 1.000 1.300 1.000 1.050 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 2.000 1.000 1.125 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.267 1.207 1.162 1.093 1.024 1.049 1.050 1.000 1.024 1.025 1.000 1.028 1.000 1.033 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 2.000 1.111 1.250 1.000 1.071 1.000 1.067 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 2.000 1.143 1.100 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.267 1.207 1.162 1.093 1.024 1.049 1.050 1.000 1.024 1.025 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 2.299 1.815 1.504 1.294 1.184 1.156 1.103 1.050 1.050 1.025 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-AB-SUP_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:29 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment IX


Collision including All Perils


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


12-02 455,884 455,855 455,884 455,855 450,030 455,884 0 455,884 0

06-03 448,712 448,709 448,712 448,709 428,039 448,712 0 448,712 0

12-03 383,194 383,176 383,194 383,176 376,928 383,194 0 383,194 0

06-04 363,053 363,039 363,053 363,038 372,666 363,053 0 363,053 0

12-04 360,932 360,919 360,932 360,918 374,665 360,932 0 360,932 0

06-05 360,255 360,224 360,255 360,223 373,217 360,255 0 360,255 0

12-05 389,048 389,000 389,048 388,999 390,298 389,048 0 389,048 0

06-06 350,710 350,679 350,710 350,679 357,461 350,710 0 350,710 0

12-06 390,940 390,898 390,940 390,896 413,782 390,940 0 390,940 0

06-07 420,631 420,592 420,631 420,591 435,246 420,631 0 420,631 0

12-07 419,540 419,458 419,540 419,457 427,537 419,540 0 419,540 0

06-08 412,310 412,200 412,310 412,199 418,064 412,310 0 412,310 0

12-08 429,990 429,843 429,990 429,842 435,170 429,990 0 429,990 0

06-09 395,949 395,737 395,949 395,733 413,440 395,949 0 395,949 0

12-09 389,890 389,785 389,890 389,779 414,111 389,890 0 389,890 0

06-10 371,739 371,544 371,739 371,543 374,541 371,739 0 371,739 0

12-10 413,386 413,131 413,386 413,131 412,523 413,386 0 413,386 0

06-11 402,401 402,132 402,401 402,132 400,383 402,401 0 402,401 0

12-11 405,183 405,221 405,183 405,221 405,281 405,183 0 405,183 0

06-12 378,783 378,565 378,783 378,565 377,576 378,783 0 378,783 0

12-12 419,197 419,346 419,195 419,348 420,534 419,197 (420) 419,197 0

06-13 417,948 418,438 417,959 418,408 414,473 417,948 (1,258) 417,948 0

12-13 477,336 448,660 477,487 448,427 447,377 477,336 (2,399) 477,336 0

Total 9,660,303 9,630,437 9,660,463 9,630,157 9,758,710 9,660,303 (4,076) 9,660,303 0

GISA 9,660,303 9,660,303

Diff 0.00% 0.00%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment IX, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment IX, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COLAP_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:27 PM





NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)


12-02 2,490,770 98,761 98,759 98,761 3.97% 3.97% 3.97% 98,761 4,616 4,616 4,557

06-03 2,430,872 97,189 97,187 97,189 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 97,189 4,617 4,617 4,404

12-03 2,479,047 80,859 80,854 80,859 3.26% 3.26% 3.26% 80,859 4,739 4,739 4,662

06-04 2,423,478 82,714 82,714 82,714 3.41% 3.41% 3.41% 82,714 4,389 4,389 4,505

12-04 2,474,644 78,566 78,563 78,566 3.17% 3.17% 3.17% 78,566 4,594 4,594 4,769

06-05 2,443,411 80,974 80,971 80,974 3.31% 3.31% 3.31% 80,974 4,449 4,449 4,609

12-05 2,535,366 80,004 80,001 80,004 3.16% 3.16% 3.16% 80,004 4,862 4,863 4,878

06-06 2,506,322 75,812 75,809 75,812 3.02% 3.02% 3.02% 75,812 4,626 4,626 4,715

12-06 2,594,681 82,911 82,909 82,911 3.20% 3.20% 3.20% 82,911 4,715 4,715 4,991

06-07 2,565,250 90,234 90,231 90,234 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 90,234 4,661 4,662 4,824

12-07 2,658,472 83,741 83,740 83,741 3.15% 3.15% 3.15% 83,741 5,009 5,010 5,105

06-08 2,649,646 84,723 84,721 84,723 3.20% 3.20% 3.20% 84,723 4,865 4,867 4,934

12-08 2,725,674 83,320 83,315 83,320 3.06% 3.06% 3.06% 83,320 5,159 5,161 5,223

06-09 2,671,208 81,902 81,892 81,902 3.07% 3.07% 3.07% 81,902 4,832 4,834 5,048

12-09 2,739,364 77,505 77,498 77,505 2.83% 2.83% 2.83% 77,505 5,030 5,031 5,343

06-10 2,683,073 72,528 72,516 72,528 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 72,528 5,124 5,125 5,164

12-10 2,760,189 75,472 75,451 75,472 2.73% 2.73% 2.73% 75,472 5,476 5,477 5,466

06-11 2,710,887 75,789 75,773 75,789 2.80% 2.79% 2.80% 75,789 5,307 5,309 5,283

12-11 2,794,999 72,480 72,459 72,480 2.59% 2.59% 2.59% 72,480 5,593 5,590 5,592

06-12 2,770,461 69,865 69,823 69,865 2.52% 2.52% 2.52% 69,865 5,422 5,422 5,404

12-12 2,855,206 73,517 73,452 73,517 2.57% 2.57% 2.57% 73,517 5,709 5,702 5,720

06-13 2,820,156 74,968 74,901 74,968 2.66% 2.65% 2.66% 74,968 5,587 5,575 5,529

12-13 2,924,066 81,994 76,451 76,451 2.61% 2.79% 2.61% 76,451 5,868 5,822 5,852

Total 63,104,287 1,954,631 1,948,795 1,949,088 1,949,088

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment IX, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COLAP_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:27 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 397,900 405,589 404,434 404,040 404,154 403,900 403,633 403,543 403,584 403,526 403,467 403,466 403,431 403,398 403,372 403,344 403,329 403,320 403,310 403,308 403,298 403,296 403,293 403,291

12-02 436,403 458,241 457,184 457,072 457,685 456,001 455,867 455,794 455,830 455,890 455,972 455,966 455,919 455,898 456,066 455,934 455,926 455,913 455,910 455,897 455,885 455,881 455,884

06-03 445,098 448,994 448,166 447,661 447,854 447,782 447,961 448,274 448,947 448,973 448,880 448,948 448,944 448,837 448,838 448,757 448,766 448,747 448,734 448,724 448,718 448,712

12-03 371,178 384,865 383,751 383,589 383,494 383,734 383,761 383,528 383,629 383,424 383,355 383,355 383,260 383,244 383,256 383,238 383,226 383,222 383,207 383,209 383,194

06-04 366,844 365,351 364,030 363,579 363,574 363,471 363,542 363,422 363,328 363,219 363,155 363,133 363,105 363,098 363,082 363,029 363,070 363,063 363,058 363,053

12-04 345,868 362,820 361,723 361,456 361,253 361,269 361,010 361,008 360,948 360,880 360,851 360,818 360,880 360,891 361,003 360,981 360,934 360,934 360,932

06-05 365,878 363,256 362,398 361,067 360,804 360,711 360,595 360,516 360,434 360,322 360,347 360,369 360,304 360,303 360,318 360,277 360,269 360,255

12-05 383,809 391,656 390,221 389,974 389,647 389,429 389,303 389,252 389,298 389,235 389,143 389,118 389,044 389,017 389,045 389,067 389,048

06-06 358,040 353,778 352,993 352,805 351,181 351,284 351,036 351,046 350,961 350,897 350,874 350,835 350,759 350,740 350,724 350,710

12-06 388,247 394,904 391,859 391,503 391,466 391,197 391,060 391,070 391,145 391,040 391,013 390,977 390,977 390,949 390,940

06-07 431,864 424,468 422,153 421,660 421,533 421,441 421,030 420,883 420,834 420,758 420,747 420,706 420,680 420,631

12-07 414,873 422,400 420,442 420,263 419,864 419,842 419,752 419,677 419,626 419,606 419,582 419,533 419,540

06-08 418,875 414,615 413,362 412,613 412,637 412,472 412,484 412,447 412,389 412,336 412,333 412,310

12-08 418,764 432,778 430,397 429,826 430,005 429,991 429,895 429,976 429,967 429,998 429,990

06-09 407,859 397,479 396,087 395,883 396,050 395,935 396,069 395,975 395,972 395,949

12-09 386,649 391,624 390,538 390,183 389,961 389,895 389,900 389,897 389,890

06-10 375,957 372,908 372,655 372,042 371,764 371,542 371,718 371,739

12-10 418,832 415,458 413,486 413,386 413,233 413,363 413,386

06-11 413,509 404,015 402,888 402,521 402,308 402,401

12-11 406,122 407,364 405,739 405,291 405,183

06-12 387,976 379,745 379,259 378,783

12-12 416,810 420,447 419,616

06-13 428,977 419,206

12-13 479,735

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.019 0.997 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.050 0.998 1.000 1.001 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.009 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.037 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 0.996 0.996 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.049 0.997 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 0.993 0.998 0.996 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.020 0.996 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 0.988 0.998 0.999 0.995 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.017 0.992 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 0.983 0.995 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.018 0.995 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 0.990 0.997 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.033 0.994 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 0.975 0.996 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.013 0.997 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 0.992 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000

12-10 0.992 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 0.977 0.997 0.999 0.999 1.000

12-11 1.003 0.996 0.999 1.000

06-12 0.979 0.999 0.999

12-12 1.009 0.998

06-13 0.977

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.005 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.989 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.992 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.004 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 0.992 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 0.988 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.005 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.989 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.992 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 0.998 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.998 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 0.995 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.995 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COLAP_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:27 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 343,021 400,611 402,673 403,224 403,358 403,424 403,384 403,358 403,445 403,442 403,406 403,409 403,385 403,354 403,335 403,320 403,318 403,315 403,304 403,297 403,295 403,292 403,289 403,287

12-02 353,176 452,162 454,799 455,146 455,217 455,345 455,458 455,543 455,606 455,704 455,767 455,843 455,817 455,801 455,872 455,876 455,874 455,856 455,854 455,867 455,860 455,857 455,856

06-03 390,731 445,005 446,785 446,809 447,210 447,379 447,655 447,896 448,410 448,513 448,665 448,768 448,792 448,774 448,787 448,743 448,762 448,739 448,729 448,723 448,718 448,712

12-03 302,575 381,274 382,329 382,868 382,925 383,076 383,143 383,089 383,079 383,160 383,236 383,294 383,231 383,211 383,231 383,214 383,208 383,203 383,196 383,199 383,183

06-04 320,386 361,316 362,630 362,735 363,028 363,082 363,245 363,210 363,219 363,165 363,108 363,099 363,088 363,093 363,079 363,024 363,065 363,059 363,054 363,051

12-04 274,729 358,246 360,011 360,471 360,628 360,707 360,791 360,853 360,850 360,806 360,794 360,767 360,827 360,824 360,935 360,963 360,932 360,932 360,932

06-05 311,881 357,945 359,965 360,248 360,256 360,361 360,379 360,369 360,310 360,292 360,317 360,320 360,291 360,291 360,270 360,259 360,251 360,242

12-05 294,488 386,766 388,678 388,926 389,031 389,035 389,070 389,096 389,170 389,136 389,047 389,038 389,020 388,999 389,018 389,046 389,029

06-06 297,728 347,676 349,995 350,593 350,724 350,892 350,894 350,964 350,901 350,862 350,842 350,819 350,752 350,736 350,719 350,706

12-06 304,113 388,057 390,400 390,718 390,848 390,872 390,887 391,023 391,037 391,008 390,990 390,967 390,956 390,943 390,935

06-07 362,553 418,205 420,260 420,700 420,744 420,760 420,762 420,662 420,755 420,752 420,687 420,673 420,647 420,618

12-07 320,768 416,722 419,009 419,408 419,488 419,560 419,571 419,536 419,554 419,531 419,560 419,533 419,499

06-08 353,378 409,114 411,684 411,933 412,162 412,209 412,314 412,330 412,311 412,283 412,284 412,273

12-08 317,920 426,870 429,241 429,382 429,673 429,750 429,746 429,838 429,885 429,926 429,939

06-09 339,306 393,272 395,237 395,557 395,706 395,794 395,874 395,823 395,828 395,835

12-09 307,819 387,521 388,897 389,367 389,531 389,659 389,788 389,843 389,887

06-10 313,404 368,640 370,798 371,163 371,175 371,240 371,467 371,612

12-10 327,066 409,913 412,163 412,764 412,838 413,082 413,169

06-11 340,950 399,096 401,188 401,719 401,936 402,066

12-11 316,092 402,431 404,443 404,851 405,030

06-12 325,352 375,423 377,933 378,261

12-12 329,626 416,368 418,529

06-13 356,049 415,314

12-13 367,351

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.168 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.280 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.139 1.004 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.260 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.128 1.004 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.304 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.148 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.313 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.168 1.007 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.276 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.154 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.299 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.158 1.006 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.343 1.006 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.159 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.259 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.176 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

12-10 1.253 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-11 1.171 1.005 1.001 1.001 1.000

12-11 1.273 1.005 1.001 1.000

06-12 1.154 1.007 1.001

12-12 1.263 1.005

06-13 1.166

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.218 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.213 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.214 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.216 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.215 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.213 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.215 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.212 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.213 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.212 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.221 1.008 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COLAP_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:27 PM






06-02 102,573 99,337 99,116 99,028 98,964 98,896 98,849 98,835 98,833 98,832 98,816 98,810 98,811 98,812 98,807 98,808 98,806 98,805 98,804 98,805 98,804 98,804 98,804 98,804

12-02 106,669 99,417 99,067 98,962 98,868 98,811 98,786 98,786 98,783 98,770 98,767 98,770 98,766 98,766 98,766 98,761 98,761 98,764 98,762 98,762 98,761 98,761 98,761

06-03 104,686 97,780 97,425 97,326 97,309 97,266 97,250 97,225 97,205 97,187 97,191 97,192 97,191 97,188 97,186 97,189 97,190 97,190 97,190 97,189 97,188 97,189

12-03 89,334 81,291 81,060 80,972 80,925 80,912 80,905 80,879 80,858 80,855 80,860 80,859 80,858 80,861 80,861 80,862 80,859 80,857 80,855 80,857 80,859

06-04 86,889 83,040 82,888 82,799 82,782 82,776 82,745 82,740 82,732 82,732 82,717 82,715 82,712 82,715 82,718 82,717 82,715 82,715 82,715 82,714

12-04 83,999 79,040 78,763 78,703 78,675 78,621 78,598 78,596 78,589 78,580 78,575 78,569 78,565 78,560 78,562 78,564 78,565 78,565 78,566

06-05 84,298 81,425 81,175 81,098 81,046 80,998 80,997 80,985 80,980 80,974 80,969 80,971 80,973 80,973 80,972 80,974 80,973 80,974

12-05 81,854 80,352 80,219 80,148 80,055 80,027 80,019 80,019 80,012 80,011 80,012 80,010 80,006 80,007 80,006 80,005 80,004

06-06 77,386 76,075 75,936 75,848 75,848 75,850 75,831 75,832 75,822 75,818 75,818 75,815 75,810 75,811 75,813 75,812

12-06 83,805 83,429 83,024 82,972 82,962 82,940 82,936 82,911 82,916 82,915 82,914 82,912 82,911 82,912 82,911

06-07 94,226 90,615 90,334 90,309 90,291 90,281 90,255 90,248 90,248 90,243 90,242 90,242 90,239 90,234

12-07 85,710 84,040 83,884 83,813 83,811 83,774 83,753 83,757 83,753 83,750 83,751 83,741 83,741

06-08 89,071 84,962 84,864 84,791 84,756 84,732 84,733 84,727 84,728 84,727 84,726 84,723

12-08 84,698 83,536 83,431 83,345 83,365 83,347 83,337 83,328 83,323 83,324 83,320

06-09 83,287 82,059 81,949 81,916 81,935 81,916 81,906 81,904 81,906 81,902

12-09 78,333 77,593 77,584 77,578 77,548 77,529 77,520 77,516 77,505

06-10 74,186 72,614 72,624 72,559 72,556 72,535 72,534 72,528

12-10 78,191 75,638 75,531 75,494 75,487 75,478 75,472

06-11 77,604 75,864 75,858 75,839 75,812 75,789

12-11 73,063 72,472 72,543 72,502 72,480

06-12 71,326 69,900 69,896 69,865

12-12 75,161 73,484 73,517

06-13 76,595 74,893

12-13 83,497

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 0.968 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 0.932 0.996 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.934 0.996 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 0.910 0.997 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 0.956 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 0.941 0.996 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 0.966 0.997 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 0.982 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 0.983 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 0.996 0.995 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 0.962 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 0.981 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 0.954 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 0.986 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 0.985 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 0.979 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 0.967 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 0.978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-11 0.992 1.001 0.999 1.000

06-12 0.980 1.000 1.000

12-12 0.978 1.000

06-13 0.978

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 0.969 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.979 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.982 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 0.970 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 0.980 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 0.978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 0.967 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.979 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.982 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 0.981 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.981 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 0.982 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.982 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COLAP_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:27 PM






06-02 82,266 97,884 98,703 98,798 98,824 98,821 98,814 98,820 98,819 98,814 98,809 98,809 98,809 98,806 98,803 98,804 98,804 98,804 98,804 98,804 98,804 98,804 98,804 98,804

12-02 76,413 97,857 98,618 98,729 98,749 98,752 98,757 98,762 98,765 98,764 98,764 98,761 98,761 98,760 98,760 98,758 98,758 98,758 98,758 98,759 98,759 98,759 98,759

06-03 83,647 96,423 97,109 97,165 97,191 97,190 97,197 97,188 97,183 97,177 97,179 97,183 97,184 97,184 97,184 97,186 97,187 97,187 97,187 97,187 97,187 97,187

12-03 62,901 80,223 80,773 80,824 80,828 80,849 80,852 80,851 80,850 80,850 80,852 80,854 80,857 80,858 80,857 80,856 80,855 80,854 80,854 80,854 80,854

06-04 71,096 82,053 82,574 82,656 82,681 82,688 82,705 82,714 82,716 82,717 82,714 82,711 82,711 82,714 82,714 82,714 82,714 82,714 82,714 82,714

12-04 58,520 77,816 78,434 78,554 78,567 78,572 78,578 78,582 78,580 78,574 78,567 78,562 78,560 78,560 78,562 78,563 78,563 78,563 78,563

06-05 67,885 80,197 80,879 80,952 80,973 80,969 80,974 80,970 80,971 80,971 80,970 80,970 80,971 80,971 80,971 80,971 80,971 80,971

12-05 58,537 79,221 79,887 79,984 79,990 80,001 80,002 80,001 80,001 80,001 80,002 80,002 80,002 80,002 80,001 80,002 80,001

06-06 61,832 74,950 75,666 75,766 75,795 75,813 75,814 75,816 75,813 75,811 75,810 75,809 75,807 75,807 75,807 75,809

12-06 62,558 82,050 82,759 82,865 82,885 82,900 82,903 82,906 82,911 82,911 82,910 82,911 82,910 82,909 82,909

06-07 76,079 89,561 90,102 90,195 90,220 90,230 90,231 90,233 90,235 90,235 90,234 90,234 90,233 90,231

12-07 63,776 82,922 83,649 83,718 83,743 83,747 83,747 83,741 83,743 83,743 83,742 83,740 83,740

06-08 71,895 83,946 84,608 84,698 84,713 84,715 84,719 84,722 84,724 84,723 84,722 84,722

12-08 61,450 82,391 83,195 83,284 83,314 83,323 83,323 83,319 83,316 83,317 83,316

06-09 69,083 81,204 81,817 81,859 81,885 81,893 81,894 81,894 81,894 81,894

12-09 60,984 76,910 77,422 77,490 77,507 77,508 77,504 77,508 77,500

06-10 61,329 71,881 72,422 72,482 72,499 72,507 72,515 72,518

12-10 59,798 74,723 75,349 75,432 75,439 75,447 75,453

06-11 63,568 75,132 75,695 75,768 75,777 75,773

12-11 57,159 71,840 72,384 72,441 72,454

06-12 59,646 69,224 69,744 69,805

12-12 58,982 72,821 73,366

06-13 63,575 74,245

12-13 62,760

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.190 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.281 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.153 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.275 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.154 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.330 1.008 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.181 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.353 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.212 1.010 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.312 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.177 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.300 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.168 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.341 1.010 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.175 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.261 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.172 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.250 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.182 1.007 1.001 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.257 1.008 1.001 1.000

06-12 1.161 1.008 1.001

12-12 1.235 1.007

06-13 1.168

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.230 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.209 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.205 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.228 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.210 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.208 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.226 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.207 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.204 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.207 1.008 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.218 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COLAP_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:27 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - Collision





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 183 175 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,319 4,481 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4.23% 3.85% 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 198 176 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,869 4,744 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4.07% 3.78% 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 199 172 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,851 4,585 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4.11% 3.71% 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 165 174 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,921 4,854 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.35% 3.64% 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 164 170 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,656 4,692 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.51% 3.57% 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 159 172 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,922 4,967 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.22% 3.51% 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 157 167 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,763 4,801 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.30% 3.44% 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 164 169 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,262 5,083 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.12% 3.38% 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 148 165 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,922 4,913 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.01% 3.31% 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 160 167 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,009 5,201 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.19% 3.25% 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 175 163 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4,949 5,028 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.53% 3.19% 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 168 164 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,273 5,322 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.19% 3.13% 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 164 161 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,146 5,145 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.19% 3.08% 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 166 162 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,497 5,446 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.02% 3.02% 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 155 158 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,102 5,265 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.04% 2.96% 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 148 160 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,279 5,573 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.81% 2.91% 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 144 156 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,315 5,387 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.71% 2.85% 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 156 158 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,704 5,703 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.74% 2.80% 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-06 0.0% 158 154 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,629 5,513 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.81% 2.75% 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-12 0.0% 153 155 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,917 5,836 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.59% 2.70% 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-06 0.0% 145 152 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,740 5,641 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.52% 2.65% 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-12 0.0% 155 153 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,012 5,972 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.57% 2.60% 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-06 0.0% 157 150 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5,870 5,773 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.67% 2.55% 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-12 0.0% 172 151 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 6,148 6,111 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.80% 2.50% 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(26) Indicated Trend (0.7%) 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend 1.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend (1.9%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


(28) t-value => observed (3.3) 0.6 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed 14.5 4.2 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed (10.6) n/a n/a n/a n/a

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a







(36) Selected Trend (0.7%) 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend 1.2% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend (1.9%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pre-reform annual trend -1.4% -1.4% Pre-reform annual trend 2.3% 2.3% Pre-reform annual trend -3.7% -3.6%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend -1.4% -1.4% Post-reform annual trend 2.3% 2.3% Post-reform annual trend -3.7% -3.6%

See Segment IX - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



0

50

100

150

200

250

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-COL_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 3:54 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - Collision





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 443,532 1,946,838 8.9% 183 4,319 4.23%

2002-12 497,655 2,010,053 8.9% 198 4,869 4.07%

2003-06 516,633 1,956,292 8.4% 199 4,851 4.11% 8.9% 12.3% (3.0%)

2003-12 551,639 1,984,398 8.4% 165 4,921 3.35% (16.9%) 1.1% (17.7%)

2004-06 554,052 1,924,769 10.0% 164 4,656 3.51% (17.9%) (4.0%) (14.5%)

2004-12 557,482 1,975,187 10.0% 159 4,922 3.22% (3.8%) 0.0% (3.9%)

2005-06 539,830 1,972,281 9.2% 157 4,763 3.30% (3.9%) 2.3% (6.1%)

2005-12 551,850 2,056,472 9.2% 164 5,262 3.12% 3.4% 6.9% (3.3%)

2006-06 535,257 2,030,105 8.2% 148 4,922 3.01% (5.7%) 3.3% (8.7%)

2006-12 545,429 2,101,495 8.2% 160 5,009 3.19% (2.5%) (4.8%) 2.4%

2007-06 539,179 2,077,453 8.5% 175 4,949 3.53% 18.0% 0.5% 17.3%

2007-12 553,614 2,151,716 8.5% 168 5,273 3.19% 5.3% 5.3% 0.1%

2008-06 551,158 2,144,442 7.6% 164 5,146 3.19% (6.1%) 4.0% (9.7%)

2008-12 568,480 2,209,006 7.6% 166 5,497 3.02% (1.3%) 4.3% (5.3%)

2009-06 555,118 2,165,330 7.5% 155 5,102 3.04% (5.7%) (0.9%) (4.9%)

2009-12 559,679 2,221,649 7.5% 148 5,279 2.81% (10.7%) (4.0%) (7.0%)

2010-06 524,214 2,177,027 6.6% 144 5,315 2.71% (6.9%) 4.2% (10.6%)

2010-12 524,169 2,245,587 6.6% 156 5,704 2.74% 5.2% 8.1% (2.7%)

2011-06 505,269 2,206,653 8.3% 158 5,629 2.81% 9.5% 5.9% 3.4%

2011-12 502,636 2,273,860 8.3% 153 5,917 2.59% (1.8%) 3.7% (5.3%)

2012-06 489,287 2,249,382 8.0% 145 5,740 2.52% (8.3%) 2.0% (10.1%)

2012-12 496,857 2,314,538 8.0% 155 6,012 2.57% 1.0% 1.6% (0.6%)

2013-06 487,856 2,278,343 8.0% 157 5,870 2.67% 8.1% 2.3% 5.7%

2013-12 505,265 2,356,453 8.0% 172 6,148 2.80% 11.3% 2.3% 8.8%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment IX - Page 8b.

(4) From IBC.

(5)-(7) From Segment IX - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-COL_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 3:54 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - Collision

($000)




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 326,931 326,927 82,437 1.000 1.000 1.000 326,931 326,927 82,437 326,931 82,437

2002-12 366,101 366,076 81,874 1.000 1.000 1.000 366,101 366,075 81,874 366,101 81,874

2003-06 359,515 359,515 80,335 1.000 1.000 1.000 359,515 359,512 80,335 359,515 80,335

2003-12 301,856 301,844 66,494 1.000 1.000 1.000 301,856 301,839 66,494 301,856 66,494

2004-06 286,104 286,102 67,596 1.000 1.000 1.000 286,104 286,092 67,596 286,104 67,596

2004-12 284,749 284,749 63,637 1.000 1.000 1.000 284,749 284,739 63,637 284,749 63,637

2005-06 283,844 283,837 65,073 1.000 1.000 1.000 283,844 283,823 65,073 283,844 65,073

2005-12 308,806 308,796 64,080 1.000 1.000 1.000 308,806 308,773 64,080 308,806 64,080

2006-06 278,056 278,054 61,124 1.000 1.000 1.000 278,056 278,033 61,124 278,056 61,124

2006-12 310,409 310,405 67,057 1.000 1.000 1.000 310,409 310,375 67,057 310,409 67,057

2007-06 334,771 334,759 73,394 1.000 1.000 1.000 334,771 334,739 73,394 334,771 73,394

2007-12 333,890 333,849 68,709 1.000 1.000 1.000 333,890 333,816 68,709 333,890 68,709

2008-06 327,278 327,264 68,427 1.000 1.000 1.000 327,278 327,206 68,427 327,278 68,427

2008-12 341,269 341,242 66,805 1.000 1.000 1.000 341,269 341,166 66,805 341,269 66,805

2009-06 311,975 311,903 65,738 1.000 1.000 1.000 311,975 311,826 65,738 311,975 65,738

2009-12 306,776 306,801 62,471 1.000 1.000 1.000 306,776 306,721 62,471 306,776 62,471

2010-06 294,497 294,401 59,067 1.000 1.000 1.000 294,497 294,346 59,067 294,497 59,067

2010-12 328,911 328,810 61,464 1.000 1.000 1.000 328,911 328,780 61,464 328,911 61,464

2011-06 321,842 321,765 61,917 1.000 1.000 1.000 321,842 321,818 61,917 321,842 61,917

2011-12 321,843 321,788 58,909 1.000 1.000 1.000 321,843 321,939 58,909 321,843 58,909

2012-06 301,724 301,414 56,747 1.000 1.001 1.000 301,724 301,657 56,747 301,724 56,747

2012-12 332,113 331,444 59,581 0.999 1.002 1.000 331,781 332,091 59,581 331,781 59,581

2013-06 331,319 328,780 60,695 0.997 1.008 1.001 330,325 331,254 60,756 330,325 60,756

2013-12 377,773 290,932 67,214 0.995 1.221 0.982 375,884 355,327 66,004 375,884 66,004

Total 7,672,354 7,581,459 1,590,844 7,669,139 7,648,874 1,589,695 7,669,139 1,589,695

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment IX - Page 3.





IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-COL_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:54 PM



Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - Collision




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 443,532 1,946,838 326,931 82,437 73.7% 168 3,966 4.23%

2002-12 497,655 2,010,053 366,101 81,874 73.6% 182 4,472 4.07%

2003-06 516,633 1,956,292 359,515 80,335 69.6% 184 4,475 4.11%

2003-12 551,639 1,984,398 301,856 66,494 54.7% 152 4,540 3.35%

2004-06 554,052 1,924,769 286,104 67,596 51.6% 149 4,233 3.51%

2004-12 557,482 1,975,187 284,749 63,637 51.1% 144 4,475 3.22%

2005-06 539,830 1,972,281 283,844 65,073 52.6% 144 4,362 3.30%

2005-12 551,850 2,056,472 308,806 64,080 56.0% 150 4,819 3.12%

2006-06 535,257 2,030,105 278,056 61,124 51.9% 137 4,549 3.01%

2006-12 545,429 2,101,495 310,409 67,057 56.9% 148 4,629 3.19%

2007-06 539,179 2,077,453 334,771 73,394 62.1% 161 4,561 3.53%

2007-12 553,614 2,151,716 333,890 68,709 60.3% 155 4,859 3.19%

2008-06 551,158 2,144,442 327,278 68,427 59.4% 153 4,783 3.19%

2008-12 568,480 2,209,006 341,269 66,805 60.0% 154 5,108 3.02%

2009-06 555,118 2,165,330 311,975 65,738 56.2% 144 4,746 3.04%

2009-12 559,679 2,221,649 306,776 62,471 54.8% 138 4,911 2.81%

2010-06 524,214 2,177,027 294,497 59,067 56.2% 135 4,986 2.71%

2010-12 524,169 2,245,587 328,911 61,464 62.7% 146 5,351 2.74%

2011-06 505,269 2,206,653 321,842 61,917 63.7% 146 5,198 2.81%

2011-12 502,636 2,273,860 321,843 58,909 64.0% 142 5,463 2.59%

2012-06 489,287 2,249,382 301,724 56,747 61.7% 134 5,317 2.52%

2012-12 496,857 2,314,538 331,781 59,581 66.8% 143 5,569 2.57%

2013-06 487,856 2,278,343 330,325 60,756 67.7% 145 5,437 2.67%

2013-12 505,265 2,356,453 375,884 66,004 74.4% 160 5,695 2.80%

Total 12,656,141 51,029,329 7,669,139 1,589,695 60.6% 150 4,824 3.12%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment IX - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-COL_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:54 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment X


Comprehensive including All Perils


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)


12-02 242,112 242,111 242,112 242,111 242,111 242,112 0 242,112 0

06-03 207,974 207,973 207,974 207,973 207,975 207,974 0 207,974 0

12-03 215,516 215,499 215,516 215,499 215,501 215,516 0 215,516 0

06-04 169,049 169,047 169,049 169,047 169,047 169,049 0 169,049 0

12-04 175,500 175,486 175,500 175,486 175,486 175,500 0 175,500 0

06-05 152,534 152,530 152,534 152,530 152,530 152,534 0 152,534 0

12-05 207,039 207,039 207,039 207,039 207,039 207,039 0 207,039 0

06-06 154,912 154,908 154,912 154,908 163,073 154,912 0 154,912 0

12-06 195,143 195,136 195,143 195,136 206,476 195,143 0 195,143 0

06-07 170,024 170,022 170,024 170,022 170,160 170,024 0 170,024 0

12-07 191,547 191,529 191,547 191,529 198,191 191,547 0 191,547 0

06-08 226,517 226,491 226,517 226,491 196,290 226,517 0 226,517 0

12-08 184,445 184,427 184,445 184,427 178,950 184,445 0 184,445 0

06-09 203,919 203,762 203,919 203,762 194,234 203,919 0 203,919 0

12-09 180,856 180,726 180,856 180,726 180,232 180,856 0 180,856 0

06-10 138,310 138,195 138,310 138,195 138,134 138,310 0 138,310 0

12-10 158,718 158,515 158,718 158,515 160,403 158,718 0 158,718 0

06-11 183,510 183,104 183,510 183,104 190,420 183,510 0 183,510 0

12-11 175,710 175,489 175,710 175,489 194,929 175,710 0 175,710 0

06-12 138,970 138,879 138,970 138,918 166,183 138,970 0 138,970 0

12-12 213,666 213,709 213,666 213,665 198,031 213,666 0 213,666 0

06-13 143,094 143,199 143,148 143,320 149,923 143,148 1,190 143,094 54

12-13 222,760 219,838 221,043 214,812 197,787 221,043 13,596 220,101 942

Total 4,472,426 4,468,213 4,470,763 4,463,303 4,473,705 4,470,763 14,786 4,469,767 996

GISA 4,469,767 4,469,767

Diff -0.06% 0.02%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment X, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment X, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COMAP_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:25 PM





NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)


12-02 2,761,271 133,950 133,950 133,950 4.85% 4.85% 4.85% 133,950 1,807 1,807 1,807

06-03 2,705,434 121,592 121,591 121,592 4.49% 4.49% 4.49% 121,592 1,710 1,710 1,710

12-03 2,739,989 102,258 102,257 102,258 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 102,258 2,107 2,108 2,107

06-04 2,694,075 85,045 85,045 85,045 3.16% 3.16% 3.16% 85,045 1,988 1,988 1,988

12-04 2,734,479 76,508 76,508 76,508 2.80% 2.80% 2.80% 76,508 2,294 2,294 2,294

06-05 2,714,284 69,049 69,049 69,049 2.54% 2.54% 2.54% 69,049 2,209 2,209 2,209

12-05 2,832,826 75,931 75,931 75,931 2.68% 2.68% 2.68% 75,931 2,727 2,727 2,727

06-06 2,777,325 66,815 66,815 66,815 2.41% 2.41% 2.41% 66,815 2,318 2,319 2,441

12-06 2,852,231 76,427 76,426 76,427 2.68% 2.68% 2.68% 76,427 2,553 2,553 2,702

06-07 2,833,337 72,024 72,023 72,024 2.54% 2.54% 2.54% 72,024 2,361 2,361 2,363

12-07 2,918,703 75,785 75,785 75,785 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 75,785 2,527 2,527 2,615

06-08 2,923,130 85,830 85,827 85,830 2.94% 2.94% 2.94% 85,830 2,639 2,639 2,287

12-08 2,988,929 70,690 70,688 70,690 2.37% 2.37% 2.37% 70,690 2,609 2,609 2,531

06-09 2,951,611 87,739 87,734 87,739 2.97% 2.97% 2.97% 87,739 2,322 2,324 2,214

12-09 3,009,640 73,550 73,547 73,550 2.44% 2.44% 2.44% 73,550 2,457 2,459 2,450

06-10 2,967,235 64,460 64,456 64,460 2.17% 2.17% 2.17% 64,460 2,144 2,146 2,143

12-10 3,031,920 67,622 67,614 67,622 2.23% 2.23% 2.23% 67,622 2,344 2,347 2,372

06-11 2,997,013 91,797 91,784 91,797 3.06% 3.06% 3.06% 91,797 1,995 1,999 2,074

12-11 3,063,506 84,894 84,884 84,894 2.77% 2.77% 2.77% 84,894 2,067 2,070 2,296

06-12 3,052,298 82,761 82,790 82,761 2.71% 2.71% 2.71% 82,761 1,676 1,679 2,008

12-12 3,120,257 89,096 89,160 89,096 2.86% 2.85% 2.86% 89,096 2,396 2,398 2,223

06-13 3,098,758 77,132 77,300 77,132 2.49% 2.49% 2.49% 77,132 1,852 1,855 1,944

12-13 3,181,547 91,928 88,292 91,928 2.89% 2.84% 2.89% 91,928 2,499 2,423 2,152

Total 69,629,714 2,058,631 2,055,204 2,058,631 2,058,631

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment X, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COMAP_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:25 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 207,410 222,399 222,117 221,288 220,979 220,789 220,688 220,604 220,570 220,594 220,615 220,614 220,609 220,642 220,613 220,624 220,599 220,599 220,597 220,598 220,598 220,598 220,598 220,599

12-02 229,484 243,953 243,439 243,004 242,725 242,545 242,384 242,227 242,205 242,068 242,066 242,085 242,080 242,080 242,056 242,151 242,158 242,164 242,169 242,100 242,096 242,107 242,112

06-03 198,344 208,898 208,583 208,112 208,153 208,019 208,022 208,075 208,064 207,970 208,007 207,995 207,991 208,052 207,997 207,994 207,977 207,980 207,975 207,976 207,975 207,974

12-03 206,296 217,022 216,228 215,951 215,835 215,824 215,865 215,827 215,822 215,797 215,771 215,727 215,670 215,651 215,668 215,651 215,562 215,518 215,533 215,527 215,516

06-04 159,888 169,065 168,737 168,475 168,520 168,314 168,614 168,587 168,627 168,564 168,634 168,752 168,866 168,878 168,957 169,013 169,032 169,028 169,036 169,049

12-04 167,499 177,139 176,384 176,170 176,025 175,969 175,943 175,743 175,512 175,519 175,492 175,502 175,492 175,500 175,501 175,501 175,501 175,500 175,500

06-05 144,517 152,406 152,466 152,386 152,382 152,381 152,525 152,558 152,578 152,597 152,545 152,522 152,523 152,523 152,518 152,505 152,506 152,534

12-05 200,689 208,660 207,609 207,636 207,496 207,562 207,122 207,122 207,121 207,054 207,093 207,050 207,080 207,079 207,052 207,043 207,039

06-06 149,216 155,808 155,778 155,396 155,013 154,968 154,965 154,963 155,029 154,921 154,956 154,908 154,915 154,916 154,921 154,912

12-06 184,320 195,444 194,688 195,328 195,490 195,124 195,087 195,041 195,080 195,119 195,113 195,158 195,167 195,155 195,143

06-07 160,161 170,954 170,528 170,321 170,127 170,128 170,110 170,080 170,059 170,065 170,062 170,017 170,020 170,024

12-07 180,332 190,905 192,385 191,465 191,470 191,569 191,548 191,523 191,575 191,647 191,608 191,542 191,547

06-08 186,306 221,938 226,436 226,351 226,339 226,518 226,439 226,435 226,457 226,494 226,524 226,517

12-08 173,364 184,739 184,359 184,342 184,374 184,454 184,399 184,475 184,464 184,471 184,445

06-09 181,083 198,682 203,469 203,924 203,940 203,901 203,916 203,963 203,987 203,919

12-09 167,987 179,797 180,913 180,770 180,761 180,768 180,739 180,857 180,856

06-10 130,517 138,181 138,631 138,404 138,399 138,402 138,486 138,310

12-10 149,774 156,671 158,745 158,587 158,721 158,702 158,718

06-11 165,942 181,600 183,508 183,240 183,491 183,510

12-11 166,793 175,656 175,709 175,732 175,710

06-12 130,638 138,452 138,842 138,970

12-12 200,292 212,063 213,666

06-13 131,277 141,959

12-13 207,447

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.072 0.999 0.996 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.063 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.053 0.998 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.052 0.996 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.057 0.998 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.058 0.996 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.055 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.040 0.995 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.044 1.000 0.998 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.060 0.996 1.003 1.001 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.067 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.059 1.008 0.995 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.191 1.020 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.066 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.097 1.024 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.070 1.006 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-10 1.059 1.003 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.999

12-10 1.046 1.013 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.094 1.011 0.999 1.001 1.000

12-11 1.053 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-12 1.060 1.003 1.001

12-12 1.059 1.008

06-13 1.081

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.068 1.003 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.066 1.006 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.063 1.005 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.063 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.064 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.063 1.006 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.068 1.003 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.065 1.006 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.062 1.006 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.053 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.065 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 1.061 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.074 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COMAP_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:25 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 174,513 219,580 220,821 220,603 220,423 220,397 220,443 220,449 220,468 220,502 220,487 220,494 220,496 220,537 220,573 220,620 220,596 220,597 220,596 220,597 220,598 220,598 220,598 220,599

12-02 193,464 240,998 241,948 241,940 241,926 242,026 242,087 242,082 242,101 242,015 242,008 242,029 242,071 242,068 242,049 242,050 242,059 242,063 242,073 242,088 242,095 242,101 242,111

06-03 166,279 206,938 207,748 207,690 207,725 207,774 207,780 207,882 207,904 207,887 207,915 207,929 207,930 207,994 207,981 207,978 207,975 207,978 207,974 207,974 207,973 207,973

12-03 175,290 215,012 215,267 215,244 215,325 215,430 215,427 215,494 215,562 215,536 215,506 215,478 215,483 215,477 215,485 215,548 215,548 215,513 215,516 215,516 215,499

06-04 134,135 167,267 167,952 168,068 168,109 168,052 168,344 168,419 168,567 168,517 168,538 168,695 168,786 168,807 168,876 168,995 168,995 169,009 169,016 169,047

12-04 141,522 174,981 175,414 175,311 175,403 175,370 175,351 175,435 175,461 175,473 175,445 175,485 175,478 175,486 175,487 175,486 175,486 175,486 175,486

06-05 117,601 150,094 151,661 151,939 152,115 152,295 152,371 152,435 152,462 152,522 152,480 152,500 152,502 152,502 152,497 152,496 152,497 152,530

12-05 165,793 206,131 206,931 207,072 207,124 207,252 206,941 207,057 207,061 207,019 207,052 207,033 207,079 207,079 207,052 207,043 207,039

06-06 121,461 153,658 154,966 155,103 154,811 154,825 154,879 154,905 154,943 154,875 154,902 154,910 154,910 154,911 154,917 154,908

12-06 152,229 192,668 194,126 195,070 195,095 194,986 194,956 194,993 195,053 195,111 195,104 195,151 195,159 195,136 195,136

06-07 130,414 168,808 169,936 170,064 169,965 169,961 169,957 169,939 169,937 169,940 169,980 170,013 170,014 170,022

12-07 148,512 188,473 191,729 191,176 191,265 191,374 191,402 191,438 191,493 191,544 191,515 191,528 191,529

06-08 127,347 214,811 224,042 225,691 225,983 226,154 226,300 226,382 226,413 226,466 226,496 226,491

12-08 141,449 182,489 183,692 184,038 184,126 184,240 184,274 184,370 184,391 184,385 184,427

06-09 140,087 195,016 202,051 203,002 203,626 203,612 203,664 203,768 203,829 203,762

12-09 143,518 178,170 180,268 180,471 180,554 180,616 180,615 180,714 180,726

06-10 108,145 136,393 137,812 137,923 138,036 138,094 138,215 138,195

12-10 122,860 154,835 158,046 158,250 158,473 158,478 158,515

06-11 127,016 178,029 182,255 182,612 182,834 183,104

12-11 140,157 173,449 175,091 175,271 175,489

06-12 108,761 137,033 138,353 138,681

12-12 173,610 209,731 213,101

06-13 108,837 140,633

12-13 169,736

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.258 1.006 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.246 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.245 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.227 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.247 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.236 1.002 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.276 1.010 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.243 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.265 1.009 1.001 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.266 1.008 1.005 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.294 1.007 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.269 1.017 0.997 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.687 1.043 1.007 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.290 1.007 1.002 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.392 1.036 1.005 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.241 1.012 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

06-10 1.261 1.010 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000

12-10 1.260 1.021 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.402 1.024 1.002 1.001 1.001

12-11 1.238 1.009 1.001 1.001

06-12 1.260 1.010 1.002

12-12 1.208 1.016

06-13 1.292

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.287 1.012 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.277 1.015 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.249 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.272 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.259 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.262 1.014 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.283 1.012 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.272 1.015 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.244 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.272 1.015 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.295 1.018 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COMAP_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:25 PM






06-02 116,133 134,709 135,707 135,761 135,762 135,756 135,753 135,750 135,752 135,752 135,752 135,751 135,753 135,751 135,748 135,749 135,748 135,748 135,748 135,749 135,749 135,749 135,749 135,749

12-02 122,004 133,132 133,970 133,973 133,958 133,965 133,953 133,952 133,952 133,957 133,961 133,962 133,951 133,950 133,951 133,951 133,951 133,951 133,951 133,950 133,949 133,950 133,950

06-03 108,176 120,905 121,558 121,597 121,624 121,618 121,630 121,627 121,626 121,623 121,614 121,611 121,602 121,596 121,594 121,594 121,592 121,592 121,592 121,592 121,592 121,592

12-03 94,307 101,548 102,236 102,266 102,262 102,267 102,268 102,261 102,262 102,260 102,260 102,260 102,263 102,262 102,263 102,263 102,260 102,259 102,258 102,258 102,258

06-04 76,096 84,566 85,013 85,025 85,026 85,033 85,043 85,039 85,044 85,046 85,047 85,046 85,046 85,046 85,046 85,046 85,046 85,045 85,045 85,045

12-04 69,473 76,060 76,475 76,508 76,511 76,511 76,515 76,508 76,510 76,509 76,510 76,506 76,506 76,506 76,507 76,507 76,508 76,508 76,508

06-05 60,849 68,463 68,924 68,979 69,016 69,022 69,039 69,042 69,047 69,048 69,046 69,048 69,049 69,050 69,050 69,049 69,049 69,049

12-05 68,622 75,182 75,756 75,874 75,911 75,917 75,927 75,930 75,929 75,928 75,931 75,932 75,933 75,932 75,932 75,931 75,931

06-06 57,167 65,538 66,598 66,749 66,792 66,802 66,812 66,811 66,815 66,813 66,815 66,815 66,815 66,815 66,815 66,815

12-06 68,811 75,794 76,393 76,415 76,439 76,434 76,431 76,426 76,425 76,426 76,425 76,425 76,426 76,427 76,427

06-07 63,548 71,180 71,931 71,999 72,015 72,021 72,022 72,021 72,024 72,023 72,024 72,024 72,024 72,024

12-07 68,372 75,285 75,760 75,788 75,783 75,776 75,780 75,784 75,786 75,785 75,785 75,786 75,785

06-08 71,056 84,544 85,733 85,786 85,810 85,809 85,821 85,826 85,827 85,831 85,830 85,830

12-08 61,739 70,019 70,619 70,668 70,684 70,687 70,691 70,688 70,688 70,687 70,690

06-09 74,439 86,248 87,584 87,694 87,719 87,732 87,741 87,743 87,740 87,739

12-09 65,296 72,993 73,501 73,530 73,543 73,544 73,551 73,552 73,550

06-10 55,143 63,798 64,347 64,416 64,438 64,454 64,460 64,460

12-10 58,684 66,679 67,501 67,568 67,600 67,614 67,622

06-11 72,359 90,181 91,564 91,677 91,738 91,797

12-11 72,079 83,795 84,716 84,812 84,894

06-12 67,511 81,855 82,660 82,761

12-12 79,452 88,174 89,007

06-13 64,419 76,217

12-13 77,331

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.160 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.091 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.118 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.077 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.111 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.095 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.125 1.007 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.096 1.008 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.146 1.016 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.101 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.120 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.101 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.190 1.014 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.134 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.159 1.015 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.118 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.157 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.136 1.012 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.246 1.015 1.001 1.001 1.001

12-11 1.163 1.011 1.001 1.001

06-12 1.212 1.010 1.001

12-12 1.110 1.009

06-13 1.183

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.137 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.175 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.167 1.011 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.135 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.162 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.174 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.135 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.175 1.011 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.164 1.011 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.138 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.175 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 1.152 1.012 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.189 1.012 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COMAP_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:25 PM






06-02 103,236 134,020 135,525 135,679 135,712 135,723 135,733 135,736 135,739 135,742 135,743 135,743 135,746 135,747 135,747 135,748 135,748 135,748 135,748 135,748 135,749 135,749 135,749 135,749

12-02 107,793 132,368 133,795 133,909 133,923 133,937 133,940 133,946 133,948 133,950 133,953 133,955 133,948 133,949 133,950 133,949 133,949 133,950 133,950 133,950 133,949 133,949 133,950

06-03 96,461 120,404 121,438 121,556 121,589 121,593 121,608 121,610 121,612 121,611 121,606 121,603 121,596 121,591 121,591 121,591 121,591 121,591 121,591 121,591 121,591 121,591

12-03 83,125 101,141 102,125 102,206 102,228 102,240 102,246 102,248 102,256 102,257 102,258 102,259 102,259 102,259 102,259 102,259 102,259 102,258 102,257 102,257 102,257

06-04 67,663 84,178 84,916 84,984 85,006 85,021 85,036 85,039 85,043 85,043 85,043 85,042 85,043 85,043 85,043 85,045 85,045 85,045 85,045 85,045

12-04 60,633 75,676 76,379 76,448 76,471 76,485 76,496 76,501 76,502 76,502 76,504 76,506 76,506 76,506 76,507 76,507 76,508 76,508 76,508

06-05 52,794 67,876 68,812 68,937 68,998 69,016 69,032 69,038 69,042 69,044 69,045 69,046 69,047 69,049 69,048 69,048 69,048 69,049

12-05 58,031 74,764 75,649 75,822 75,893 75,903 75,917 75,922 75,923 75,925 75,927 75,928 75,931 75,931 75,931 75,931 75,931

06-06 49,119 65,140 66,510 66,729 66,777 66,794 66,805 66,809 66,811 66,812 66,813 66,814 66,815 66,815 66,815 66,815

12-06 59,005 75,262 76,306 76,393 76,414 76,418 76,421 76,420 76,421 76,423 76,424 76,424 76,424 76,426 76,426

06-07 54,369 70,738 71,833 71,964 71,997 72,012 72,019 72,020 72,021 72,021 72,022 72,022 72,022 72,023

12-07 59,294 74,781 75,642 75,730 75,765 75,774 75,779 75,781 75,783 75,784 75,785 75,785 75,785

06-08 55,391 82,997 85,326 85,738 85,789 85,796 85,814 85,822 85,824 85,827 85,827 85,827

12-08 53,711 69,558 70,550 70,649 70,672 70,677 70,684 70,684 70,686 70,686 70,688

06-09 64,948 85,604 87,466 87,659 87,696 87,714 87,725 87,735 87,734 87,734

12-09 59,600 72,766 73,433 73,503 73,528 73,536 73,544 73,545 73,547

06-10 49,949 63,542 64,273 64,388 64,423 64,444 64,454 64,456

12-10 53,419 66,388 67,438 67,547 67,585 67,604 67,614

06-11 62,619 89,518 91,433 91,636 91,717 91,784

12-11 66,636 83,512 84,652 84,789 84,884

06-12 62,667 81,599 82,582 82,735

12-12 73,965 87,801 88,950

06-13 59,499 75,997

12-13 67,823

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.298 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.228 1.011 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.248 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.217 1.010 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.244 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.248 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.286 1.014 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.288 1.012 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.326 1.021 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.276 1.014 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.301 1.015 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.261 1.012 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.498 1.028 1.005 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.295 1.014 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.318 1.022 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.221 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.272 1.012 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.243 1.016 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.430 1.021 1.002 1.001 1.001

12-11 1.253 1.014 1.002 1.001

06-12 1.302 1.012 1.002

12-12 1.187 1.013

06-13 1.277

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.283 1.014 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.282 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.255 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.278 1.014 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.261 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.269 1.014 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.279 1.014 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.280 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.252 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.280 1.015 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.302 1.017 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-COMAP_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:25 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - Comprehensive





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) (21) (22) (23) (24) (25)

2002-06 0.0% 87 74 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 1,694 2,742 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 5.15% 2.47% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2002-12 0.0% 94 85 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 1,915 3,114 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4.93% 2.49% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-06 0.0% 82 72 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 1,794 2,654 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 4.56% 2.51% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2003-12 0.0% 83 82 4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,188 3,014 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.80% 2.52% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-06 0.0% 67 69 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,066 2,570 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.23% 2.54% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2004-12 0.0% 69 80 6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,400 2,918 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.88% 2.56% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-06 0.0% 59 67 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,294 2,487 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.59% 2.58% 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005-12 0.0% 77 77 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,834 2,825 8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.70% 2.60% 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-06 0.0% 59 65 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,408 2,408 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.43% 2.61% 9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2006-12 0.0% 73 74 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,667 2,734 10 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.72% 2.63% 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-06 0.0% 63 63 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,474 2,331 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.55% 2.65% 11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2007-12 0.0% 69 72 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,610 2,647 12 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.65% 2.67% 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-06 0.0% 83 60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,637 2,256 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.13% 2.69% 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008-12 0.0% 64 70 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,553 2,562 14 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.52% 2.71% 14 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-06 0.0% 72 58 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,302 2,184 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.12% 2.73% 15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2009-12 0.0% 64 67 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,442 2,480 16 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.60% 2.74% 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-06 0.0% 49 57 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,099 2,114 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.32% 2.76% 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2010-12 0.0% 55 65 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,334 2,401 18 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.37% 2.78% 18 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-06 0.0% 66 55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,026 2,047 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.26% 2.80% 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2011-12 0.0% 62 63 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,102 2,324 20 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.93% 2.82% 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-06 0.0% 49 53 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 1,717 1,981 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.88% 2.84% 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2012-12 0.0% 74 61 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,449 2,250 22 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.01% 2.86% 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-06 0.0% 49 51 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 1,868 1,918 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2.64% 2.88% 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2013-12 0.0% 73 59 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 2,403 2,178 24 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 3.04% 2.90% 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(26) Indicated Trend (1.7%) 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend (1.6%) 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (26) Indicated Trend 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


(28) t-value => observed (4.3) 3.1 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed (4.3) 3.9 n/a n/a n/a (28) t-value => observed 1.4 n/a n/a n/a n/a

(29) t-value => critical 2.1 2.1 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.2 2.2 n/a n/a n/a (29) t-value => critical 2.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a







(36) Selected Trend (1.6%) 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend (1.6%) 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (36) Selected Trend 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pre-reform annual trend -3.2% -3.2% Pre-reform annual trend -3.2% -3.2% Pre-reform annual trend 0.0% 0.0%

Column Notes: Post-reform annual trend -3.2% -3.2% Post-reform annual trend -3.2% -3.2% Post-reform annual trend 0.0% 0.0%

See Segment X - Page 7b.Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0% Reform impact estimate 0.0% 0%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

200

2-0

6

200

3-0

6

200

4-0

6

200

5-0

6

200

6-0

6

200

7-0

6

200

8-0

6

200

9-0

6

201

0-0

6

201

1-0

6

201

2-0

6

201

3-0

6



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

20

02

-06

20

03

-06

20

04

-06

20

05

-06

20

06

-06

20

07

-06

20

08

-06

20

09

-06

20

10

-06

20

11

-06

20

12

-06

20

13

-06



IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-COM_All Trending 11/4/2014 - 3:59 PM



Trend Analysis - Ontario - Industry - PPA - Comprehensive





(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

2002-06 303,675 2,229,710 8.9% 87 1,694 5.15%

2002-12 321,183 2,280,554 8.9% 94 1,915 4.93%

2003-06 324,214 2,230,854 8.4% 82 1,794 4.56% (6.3%) 5.9% (11.5%)

2003-12 337,475 2,245,341 8.4% 83 2,188 3.80% (12.0%) 14.2% (22.9%)

2004-06 331,690 2,195,366 10.0% 67 2,066 3.23% (18.5%) 15.1% (29.2%)

2004-12 318,074 2,235,022 10.0% 69 2,400 2.88% (16.8%) 9.7% (24.2%)

2005-06 298,248 2,243,154 9.2% 59 2,294 2.59% (11.1%) 11.0% (19.9%)

2005-12 294,159 2,353,932 9.2% 77 2,834 2.70% 10.8% 18.1% (6.2%)

2006-06 278,706 2,301,108 8.2% 59 2,408 2.43% (1.3%) 5.0% (6.0%)

2006-12 276,558 2,359,044 8.2% 73 2,667 2.72% (5.4%) (5.9%) 0.5%

2007-06 267,785 2,345,540 8.5% 63 2,474 2.55% 7.7% 2.7% 4.9%

2007-12 266,981 2,411,947 8.5% 69 2,610 2.65% (4.6%) (2.1%) (2.6%)

2008-06 266,455 2,417,926 7.6% 83 2,637 3.13% 31.0% 6.6% 22.9%

2008-12 271,158 2,472,260 7.6% 64 2,553 2.52% (7.0%) (2.2%) (5.0%)

2009-06 265,244 2,445,733 7.5% 72 2,302 3.12% (13.0%) (12.7%) (0.4%)

2009-12 262,611 2,491,925 7.5% 64 2,442 2.60% (1.1%) (4.4%) 3.4%

2010-06 245,683 2,461,189 6.6% 49 2,099 2.32% (32.2%) (8.8%) (25.6%)

2010-12 245,023 2,517,318 6.6% 55 2,334 2.37% (13.0%) (4.4%) (9.0%)

2011-06 240,691 2,492,779 8.3% 66 2,026 3.26% 35.6% (3.5%) 40.5%

2011-12 238,381 2,542,367 8.3% 62 2,102 2.93% 11.4% (9.9%) 23.7%

2012-06 232,086 2,531,219 8.0% 49 1,717 2.88% (25.2%) (15.2%) (11.8%)

2012-12 231,963 2,579,589 8.0% 74 2,449 3.01% 19.8% 16.5% 2.8%

2013-06 228,596 2,556,945 8.0% 49 1,868 2.64% (0.1%) 8.8% (8.1%)

2013-12 236,092 2,613,934 8.0% 73 2,403 3.04% (0.9%) (1.9%) 1.0%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From Segment X - Page 8b.

(4) From GISA.

(5)-(7) From Segment X - Page 8b, Columns (5)-(6) adjusted to include ULAE. See column (4).


IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-COM_All Trending2 11/4/2014 - 3:59 PM



Selection of Ultimate - Ontario - Industry - PPA - Comprehensive

($000)




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

2002-06 178,549 178,549 114,770 1.000 1.000 1.000 178,549 178,549 114,770 178,549 114,770

2002-12 197,811 197,811 112,503 1.000 1.000 1.000 197,811 197,811 112,503 197,811 112,503

2003-06 168,247 168,246 101,654 1.000 1.000 1.000 168,247 168,246 101,654 168,247 101,654

2003-12 172,270 172,266 85,364 1.000 1.000 1.000 172,270 172,266 85,364 172,270 85,364

2004-06 133,041 133,040 70,847 1.000 1.000 1.000 133,041 133,040 70,847 133,041 70,847

2004-12 140,553 140,539 64,415 1.000 1.000 1.000 140,553 140,539 64,415 140,553 64,415

2005-06 121,790 121,789 57,986 1.000 1.000 1.000 121,790 121,789 57,986 121,790 57,986

2005-12 165,205 165,205 63,654 1.000 1.000 1.000 165,205 165,205 63,654 165,205 63,654

2006-06 124,496 124,491 55,933 1.000 1.000 1.000 124,496 124,491 55,933 124,496 55,933

2006-12 158,080 158,074 64,142 1.000 1.000 1.000 158,080 158,074 64,142 158,080 64,142

2007-06 136,334 136,332 59,797 1.000 1.000 1.000 136,334 136,332 59,797 136,334 59,797

2007-12 153,685 153,675 63,881 1.000 1.000 1.000 153,685 153,675 63,881 153,685 63,881

2008-06 185,681 185,655 75,758 1.000 1.000 1.000 185,681 185,655 75,758 185,681 75,758

2008-12 147,691 147,678 62,235 1.000 1.000 1.000 147,691 147,678 62,235 147,691 62,235

2009-06 163,498 163,342 76,361 1.000 1.000 1.000 163,498 163,342 76,361 163,498 76,361

2009-12 147,344 147,220 64,874 1.000 1.000 1.000 147,344 147,220 64,874 147,344 64,874

2010-06 112,487 112,431 57,140 1.000 1.000 1.000 112,487 112,431 57,140 112,487 57,140

2010-12 130,597 130,524 59,636 1.000 1.000 1.000 130,597 130,524 59,636 130,597 59,636

2011-06 152,078 151,746 81,301 1.000 1.000 1.000 152,078 151,746 81,301 152,078 81,301

2011-12 144,602 144,441 74,489 1.000 1.000 1.000 144,602 144,441 74,489 144,602 74,489

2012-06 115,809 115,624 72,798 1.000 1.001 1.000 115,809 115,790 72,798 115,809 72,798

2012-12 176,354 175,910 77,654 1.000 1.003 1.001 176,354 176,412 77,732 176,354 77,732

2013-06 115,988 115,027 66,770 1.008 1.018 1.012 116,916 117,126 67,571 116,916 67,571

2013-12 164,979 135,488 66,945 1.074 1.295 1.189 177,157 175,480 79,581 177,157 79,581

Total 3,607,167 3,575,102 1,750,906 3,620,273 3,617,861 1,764,421 3,620,273 1,764,421

Column Notes:

(2)-(4) From GISA.

(5) From Segment X - Page 3.





IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-COM_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:59 PM



Diagnostics - Ontario - Industry - PPA - Comprehensive




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

2002-06 303,675 2,229,710 178,549 114,770 58.8% 80 1,556 5.15%

2002-12 321,183 2,280,554 197,811 112,503 61.6% 87 1,758 4.93%

2003-06 324,214 2,230,854 168,247 101,654 51.9% 75 1,655 4.56%

2003-12 337,475 2,245,341 172,270 85,364 51.0% 77 2,018 3.80%

2004-06 331,690 2,195,366 133,041 70,847 40.1% 61 1,878 3.23%

2004-12 318,074 2,235,022 140,553 64,415 44.2% 63 2,182 2.88%

2005-06 298,248 2,243,154 121,790 57,986 40.8% 54 2,100 2.59%

2005-12 294,159 2,353,932 165,205 63,654 56.2% 70 2,595 2.70%

2006-06 278,706 2,301,108 124,496 55,933 44.7% 54 2,226 2.43%

2006-12 276,558 2,359,044 158,080 64,142 57.2% 67 2,465 2.72%

2007-06 267,785 2,345,540 136,334 59,797 50.9% 58 2,280 2.55%

2007-12 266,981 2,411,947 153,685 63,881 57.6% 64 2,406 2.65%

2008-06 266,455 2,417,926 185,681 75,758 69.7% 77 2,451 3.13%

2008-12 271,158 2,472,260 147,691 62,235 54.5% 60 2,373 2.52%

2009-06 265,244 2,445,733 163,498 76,361 61.6% 67 2,141 3.12%

2009-12 262,611 2,491,925 147,344 64,874 56.1% 59 2,271 2.60%

2010-06 245,683 2,461,189 112,487 57,140 45.8% 46 1,969 2.32%

2010-12 245,023 2,517,318 130,597 59,636 53.3% 52 2,190 2.37%

2011-06 240,691 2,492,779 152,078 81,301 63.2% 61 1,871 3.26%

2011-12 238,381 2,542,367 144,602 74,489 60.7% 57 1,941 2.93%

2012-06 232,086 2,531,219 115,809 72,798 49.9% 46 1,591 2.88%

2012-12 231,963 2,579,589 176,354 77,732 76.0% 68 2,269 3.01%

2013-06 228,596 2,556,945 116,916 67,571 51.1% 46 1,730 2.64%

2013-12 236,092 2,613,934 177,157 79,581 75.0% 68 2,226 3.04%

Total 6,582,730 57,554,756 3,620,273 1,764,421 55.0% 63 2,052 3.07%

Column Notes:

(2)-(3) From GISA.

(4)-(5) Selected in Segment X - Page 8a.

(6) = [(4) / (2)].

(7) = [(4) / (3) x 1000].

(8) = [(4) / (5) x 1000].

(9) = [(5) / (3)].

IBC-ONT-Proj-2013-12-PPA-COM_All Summary 11/4/2014 - 3:59 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment XI


Specified Perils


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 359 359 359 359 359 359 0 359 0

12-02 577 577 577 577 577 577 0 577 0

06-03 385 385 385 385 385 385 0 385 0

12-03 414 414 414 414 414 414 0 414 0

06-04 309 309 309 309 309 309 0 309 0

12-04 401 401 401 401 401 401 0 401 0

06-05 445 445 445 445 445 445 0 445 0

12-05 309 309 309 309 309 309 0 309 0

06-06 194 194 194 194 194 194 0 194 0

12-06 349 349 349 349 349 349 0 349 0

06-07 319 319 319 319 323 319 0 319 0

12-07 398 398 398 398 398 398 0 398 0

06-08 279 279 279 279 279 279 0 279 0

12-08 284 284 284 284 335 284 0 284 0

06-09 308 308 308 308 330 308 0 308 0

12-09 220 220 220 220 269 220 0 220 0

06-10 262 262 262 262 260 262 0 262 0

12-10 191 191 191 191 207 191 0 191 0

06-11 227 228 227 228 243 227 0 227 0

12-11 156 156 156 156 165 156 0 156 0

06-12 82 82 82 82 90 82 0 82 0

12-12 203 203 203 203 135 203 1 203 0

06-13 142 145 142 144 107 142 1 142 0

12-13 206 214 203 193 137 206 8 206 0

Total 7,020 7,031 7,016 7,008 7,021 7,020 10 7,020 0

GISA 7,020 7,020

Diff 0.00% 0.00%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment XI, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment XI, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-SP_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:23 PM



Specified Perils


NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 9,414 99 99 99 1.05% 1.05% 1.05% 99 3,625 3,625 3,625

12-02 9,065 141 141 141 1.56% 1.56% 1.56% 141 4,095 4,095 4,095

06-03 9,031 75 75 75 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 75 5,132 5,132 5,132

12-03 8,957 81 81 81 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% 81 5,112 5,112 5,112

06-04 9,802 73 73 73 0.74% 0.74% 0.74% 73 4,234 4,234 4,234

12-04 9,513 87 87 87 0.91% 0.91% 0.91% 87 4,615 4,615 4,615

06-05 9,489 63 63 63 0.66% 0.66% 0.66% 63 7,060 7,060 7,060

12-05 9,507 69 69 69 0.73% 0.73% 0.73% 69 4,471 4,471 4,471

06-06 9,680 60 60 60 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 60 3,237 3,237 3,237

12-06 9,174 76 76 76 0.83% 0.83% 0.83% 76 4,593 4,593 4,593

06-07 8,861 71 70 71 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% 71 4,554 4,490 4,554

12-07 8,860 67 67 67 0.76% 0.76% 0.76% 67 5,939 5,939 5,939

06-08 8,922 65 65 65 0.73% 0.73% 0.73% 65 4,289 4,289 4,289

12-08 9,246 70 70 70 0.76% 0.76% 0.76% 70 4,062 4,062 4,792

06-09 9,576 70 70 70 0.73% 0.73% 0.73% 70 4,397 4,397 4,715

12-09 9,891 58 58 58 0.59% 0.59% 0.59% 58 3,801 3,801 4,639

06-10 9,958 57 57 57 0.57% 0.57% 0.57% 57 4,589 4,600 4,564

12-10 9,638 46 46 46 0.48% 0.48% 0.48% 46 4,156 4,156 4,491

06-11 8,759 55 54 55 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 55 4,211 4,134 4,419

12-11 7,523 38 38 38 0.51% 0.51% 0.51% 38 4,110 4,110 4,348

06-12 6,907 21 21 21 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 21 3,892 3,883 4,278

12-12 6,120 32 32 32 0.52% 0.52% 0.52% 32 6,351 6,347 4,209

06-13 5,631 26 27 26 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 26 5,456 5,469 4,142

12-13 4,932 34 32 34 0.68% 0.66% 0.68% 34 6,559 6,119 4,075

Total 208,457 1,534 1,531 1,534 1,534

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment XI, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-SP_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:23 PM



Specified Perils


Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 292 310 305 300 300 300 300 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359

12-02 570 574 576 577 578 577 577 577 577 578 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577

06-03 356 370 382 379 385 384 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385

12-03 384 392 411 408 408 408 408 408 408 411 447 417 452 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414

06-04 315 315 312 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309

12-04 339 395 399 399 399 399 401 401 406 406 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401

06-05 345 447 452 448 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445

12-05 355 329 311 308 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309

06-06 215 192 193 193 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194

12-06 305 333 347 350 350 350 349 349 349 349 349 349 349 349 349

06-07 350 330 322 325 318 319 319 319 319 319 319 319 319 319

12-07 353 411 411 397 398 398 398 398 398 398 398 398 398

06-08 249 269 250 278 278 271 283 278 278 278 279 279

12-08 280 294 288 289 290 291 291 292 284 284 284

06-09 247 267 272 280 310 310 308 308 308 308

12-09 217 217 218 220 220 220 220 220 220

06-10 261 257 261 261 260 261 262 262

12-10 190 194 191 191 191 191 191

06-11 236 228 227 228 227 227

12-11 170 157 156 156 156

06-12 97 97 85 82

12-12 199 203 202

06-13 134 141

12-13 198

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.063 0.983 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.195 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.006 1.004 1.002 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.041 1.030 0.994 1.015 0.998 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.022 1.049 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.007 1.087 0.934 1.083 0.916 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.001 0.989 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.168 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.013 1.000 0.988 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.294 1.011 0.991 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 0.926 0.945 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 0.894 1.003 1.001 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.094 1.040 1.009 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 0.941 0.977 1.009 0.981 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.165 1.001 0.965 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.081 0.929 1.114 1.000 0.976 1.044 0.982 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

12-08 1.052 0.979 1.003 1.003 1.005 1.000 1.002 0.973 1.001 1.000

06-09 1.082 1.021 1.029 1.107 1.000 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.000 1.007 1.009 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 0.981 1.018 1.000 0.998 1.002 1.005 1.000

12-10 1.021 0.982 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-11 0.968 0.995 1.002 0.999 1.000

12-11 0.923 0.998 1.000 1.000

06-12 0.996 0.877 0.962

12-12 1.019 0.994

06-13 1.057

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.035 0.993 1.002 1.005 0.999 1.003 1.010 0.999 1.001 1.005 0.995 1.007 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.997 0.977 0.995 1.017 1.001 1.007 0.997 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.999 0.966 0.991 0.999 1.001 0.999 1.000 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.029 0.996 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 0.998 0.999 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.001 0.992 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.041 0.998 1.002 1.005 0.999 1.002 1.009 0.999 1.001 1.006 0.994 1.008 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.995 0.988 0.999 1.022 1.002 1.007 0.997 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 0.996 0.979 0.996 0.999 1.001 0.999 1.000 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.037 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.037 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 1.042 1.005 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.042 1.005 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-SP_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:23 PM



Specified Perils



Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 208 299 300 300 300 300 300 358 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359 359

12-02 474 574 576 577 578 577 577 577 577 578 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577 577

06-03 273 365 376 379 384 384 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385 385

12-03 324 392 407 408 408 408 408 408 408 411 411 411 411 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414

06-04 257 308 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309

12-04 297 395 399 399 399 399 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401

06-05 238 433 444 444 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445

12-05 243 306 306 308 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309

06-06 152 192 193 193 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194 194

12-06 182 324 346 349 349 349 349 349 349 349 349 349 349 349 349

06-07 272 318 322 324 318 319 319 319 319 319 319 319 319 319

12-07 270 388 396 397 398 398 398 398 398 398 398 398 398

06-08 173 228 249 250 250 243 278 278 278 278 279 279

12-08 223 288 287 289 289 290 290 291 284 284 284

06-09 135 253 266 274 304 308 308 308 308 308

12-09 158 217 218 220 220 220 220 220 220

06-10 193 253 260 260 260 261 262 262

12-10 113 190 191 191 191 191 191

06-11 158 226 227 227 227 227

12-11 136 156 156 156 156

06-12 73 80 81 82

12-12 151 198 202

06-13 126 141

12-13 154

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.437 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.192 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.210 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.335 1.029 1.009 1.015 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.211 1.038 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.198 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.333 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.823 1.025 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.259 1.003 1.006 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.264 1.004 1.001 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.784 1.066 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.170 1.012 1.008 0.982 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.434 1.021 1.002 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.314 1.093 1.004 1.001 0.973 1.144 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000

12-08 1.293 0.999 1.006 1.000 1.005 1.000 1.002 0.976 1.001 1.000

06-09 1.879 1.050 1.029 1.110 1.016 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.372 1.007 1.009 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.308 1.030 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.002 1.000

12-10 1.679 1.003 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.431 1.003 1.002 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.149 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-12 1.100 1.017 1.001

12-12 1.314 1.019

06-13 1.120

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.366 1.020 1.004 1.006 1.000 1.008 1.011 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.299 1.012 1.002 1.018 1.004 1.024 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.171 1.010 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.354 1.017 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.282 1.013 1.003 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.254 1.010 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.351 1.020 1.004 1.005 1.000 1.006 1.010 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.311 1.012 1.002 1.023 1.005 1.023 1.000 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.185 1.009 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 0.994 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.351 1.020 1.004 1.002 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.388 1.027 1.007 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-SP_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:23 PM



Specified Perils



06-02 101 101 99 98 98 98 98 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99

12-02 148 140 141 142 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141

06-03 79 77 77 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

12-03 100 79 81 81 81 81 81 80 80 81 82 81 82 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81

06-04 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73

12-04 88 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 88 88 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87

06-05 66 63 62 62 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63

12-05 62 69 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69

06-06 62 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

12-06 73 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76

06-07 73 71 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 71 71 71 71 71

12-07 66 67 67 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67

06-08 59 62 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65

12-08 72 71 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

06-09 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

12-09 61 59 58 58 58 58 58 58 58

06-10 59 57 57 57 57 57 57 57

12-10 52 47 47 46 46 46 46

06-11 56 54 54 54 56 55

12-11 35 38 38 38 38

06-12 24 23 22 21

12-12 29 32 32

06-13 26 26

12-13 34

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.000 0.980 0.990 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 0.946 1.007 1.007 0.993 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 0.975 1.000 0.974 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 0.790 1.025 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.988 1.000 1.013 1.012 0.988 1.012 0.988 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.011 1.000 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 0.955 0.984 1.000 1.016 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.113 1.014 0.986 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 0.968 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.041 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 0.973 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.015 1.000 0.985 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.051 1.048 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 0.986 0.986 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 0.967 0.983 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 0.966 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 0.904 1.000 0.979 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 0.964 1.000 1.000 1.037 0.982

12-11 1.086 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-12 0.958 0.957 0.955

12-12 1.103 1.000

06-13 1.000

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 0.989 0.999 0.994 1.003 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.000 0.999 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.003 0.993 0.989 1.006 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.037 0.989 0.983 1.009 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 0.993 0.998 0.995 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 0.990 0.997 0.996 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.002 1.000 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 0.979 1.000 0.996 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.000 0.999 1.001 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 0.991 0.996 0.993 1.006 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.044 0.993 0.988 1.010 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 0.992 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.992 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 0.990 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 0.990 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-SP_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:23 PM



Specified Perils



06-02 83 98 98 98 98 98 98 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99

12-02 119 140 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141 141

06-03 59 74 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

12-03 64 78 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81

06-04 55 70 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73

12-04 76 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87

06-05 48 59 62 62 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63

12-05 46 66 68 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 69

06-06 50 59 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60

12-06 56 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76

06-07 55 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

12-07 49 62 66 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67

06-08 40 58 64 64 64 64 65 65 65 65 65 65

12-08 60 69 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

06-09 49 68 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

12-09 47 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58

06-10 43 56 57 57 57 57 57 57

12-10 30 46 46 46 46 46 46

06-11 39 54 54 54 54 54

12-11 29 38 38 38 38

06-12 19 21 21 21

12-12 23 31 32

06-13 23 26

12-13 25

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.181 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.010 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.176 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-03 1.254 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.219 1.026 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.013 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.273 1.043 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-04 1.145 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-05 1.229 1.051 1.000 1.016 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.435 1.030 1.000 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-06 1.180 1.017 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-06 1.357 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-07 1.273 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-07 1.265 1.065 1.000 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-08 1.450 1.103 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.016 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-08 1.150 1.014 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-09 1.388 1.029 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-09 1.234 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-10 1.302 1.018 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-10 1.533 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-11 1.385 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-11 1.310 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-12 1.105 1.000 1.000

12-12 1.348 1.032

06-13 1.130

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.275 1.020 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.302 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.223 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.271 1.017 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.285 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.293 1.004 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.260 1.019 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.325 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.234 1.007 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.260 1.019 1.000 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.287 1.022 1.002 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-SP_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:23 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Exhibit A - Segment XII


Uninsured Automobile


NOT PRINTED

KPMG KPMG GISA




(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 25,084 24,892 25,084 24,896 19,196 25,084 (25) 25,084 0

12-02 30,691 31,109 30,691 31,098 26,520 30,691 (123) 30,691 0

06-03 30,069 30,750 30,069 30,732 29,448 30,069 (212) 30,069 0

12-03 36,066 37,477 36,066 37,425 33,098 36,066 (401) 36,066 0

06-04 31,465 32,115 31,465 32,086 32,070 31,465 (286) 31,465 0

12-04 36,060 37,688 36,060 37,602 39,196 36,060 (401) 36,060 0

06-05 30,099 31,848 30,099 31,729 38,342 30,099 (396) 30,099 0

12-05 33,716 34,700 33,716 34,627 45,020 33,716 (410) 33,716 0

06-06 31,457 30,109 31,457 30,227 43,072 31,457 (447) 31,457 0

12-06 44,603 47,171 44,603 46,890 45,720 44,603 (818) 44,603 0

06-07 37,047 36,588 37,047 36,650 46,360 37,047 (718) 37,047 0

12-07 45,287 41,434 45,287 42,128 52,142 45,287 (877) 45,287 0

06-08 42,807 40,496 42,828 40,045 47,072 42,807 (215) 42,807 0

12-08 52,757 51,277 52,736 50,613 48,620 52,757 315 52,757 0

06-09 45,973 45,156 45,953 45,080 46,792 45,973 946 45,973 0

12-09 64,694 67,027 64,511 63,082 57,209 64,694 2,248 64,694 0

06-10 60,231 58,243 59,893 56,264 54,809 60,231 3,940 60,231 0

12-10 69,223 67,250 69,787 72,402 64,216 69,223 7,417 69,223 0

06-11 52,318 60,326 54,640 64,844 55,554 54,640 11,187 52,318 2,322

12-11 64,102 58,430 68,051 75,524 62,769 68,051 21,668 64,102 3,950

06-12 51,272 54,613 58,412 63,883 57,620 58,412 33,856 51,272 7,140

12-12 55,288 62,548 69,727 77,622 65,992 69,727 48,214 55,288 14,438

06-13 51,335 55,281 60,053 63,173 59,843 60,053 44,757 51,335 8,719

12-13 97,032 59,849 75,447 70,453 62,344 75,447 58,755 97,032 (21,585)

Total 1,118,677 1,096,378 1,133,683 1,159,074 1,133,026 1,133,661 227,974 1,118,677 14,984

GISA 1,118,677 1,118,677

Diff 0.00% 1.34%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Exhibit A - Segment XII, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Exhibit A - Segment XII, Page 2].



(9) From GISA.

(10) = [(9) - (7)].

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UA_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:20 PM





NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)


12-02 2,955,829 1,137 1,137 1,137 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,137 26,699 26,993 23,324

06-03 2,893,532 1,193 1,191 1,193 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,193 25,194 25,205 24,684

12-03 2,980,517 1,267 1,267 1,267 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,267 29,015 28,465 26,123

06-04 2,926,764 1,160 1,160 1,160 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,160 27,160 27,125 27,646

12-04 3,005,959 1,340 1,337 1,340 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,340 27,672 26,917 29,258

06-05 2,967,182 1,238 1,237 1,238 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,238 25,275 24,307 30,964

12-05 3,081,808 1,374 1,372 1,374 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,374 24,843 24,541 32,769

06-06 3,037,814 1,242 1,242 1,242 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,242 23,805 25,327 34,680

12-06 3,139,908 1,246 1,243 1,246 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,246 37,272 35,804 36,701

06-07 3,088,103 1,194 1,193 1,194 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,194 30,136 31,038 38,841

12-07 3,201,985 1,268 1,268 1,268 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 1,268 32,089 35,702 41,106

06-08 3,179,945 1,082 1,080 1,082 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 1,082 36,841 39,560 43,502

12-08 3,267,037 1,056 1,055 1,056 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 1,056 47,776 49,955 46,038

06-09 3,197,686 960 960 960 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 960 46,220 47,869 48,722

12-09 3,292,876 1,110 1,112 1,110 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 1,110 59,248 58,308 51,563

06-10 3,227,451 1,004 1,010 1,004 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 1,004 56,665 59,967 54,569

12-10 3,333,023 1,112 1,122 1,112 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 1,112 59,034 62,253 57,750

06-11 3,270,617 909 917 909 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 909 64,923 57,557 61,117

12-11 3,373,989 970 968 970 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 970 59,628 66,053 64,680

06-12 3,332,741 842 846 842 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 842 63,847 60,910 68,451

12-12 3,427,636 911 926 911 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 911 66,993 60,692 72,442

06-13 3,369,973 781 805 781 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 781 68,057 65,766 76,665

12-13 3,479,484 768 767 768 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 768 77,285 126,279 81,135

Total 75,876,870 26,035 26,084 26,035 26,035

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Exhibit A - Segment XII, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UA_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:20 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 5,494 9,476 11,793 14,759 19,542 22,541 24,667 24,737 26,038 25,748 25,530 26,209 25,809 25,299 25,319 25,269 25,553 25,520 25,460 25,283 25,411 25,006 25,101 25,110

12-02 6,477 13,511 15,904 19,953 24,416 27,172 28,072 28,805 31,589 32,588 33,296 32,949 32,460 31,448 30,960 31,438 30,980 31,154 30,980 30,954 30,806 30,975 30,814

06-03 9,459 15,073 17,079 18,404 25,155 27,054 29,069 30,912 31,947 32,240 32,216 30,509 30,110 30,753 30,617 30,361 30,434 30,510 30,399 30,309 30,606 30,281

12-03 8,410 13,435 16,216 20,706 26,745 28,763 34,274 35,620 35,822 36,271 36,660 37,791 37,271 36,562 36,371 36,407 36,576 36,690 36,053 36,188 36,467

06-04 8,556 13,357 17,591 20,460 24,955 28,318 28,418 29,794 29,572 29,683 29,940 30,242 31,527 31,536 31,775 31,705 31,263 31,307 31,842 31,751

12-04 11,140 16,732 21,412 22,991 29,691 32,845 35,001 36,776 37,052 36,937 36,976 38,274 37,200 37,118 37,054 36,926 36,535 36,431 36,461

06-05 8,793 15,459 16,617 18,505 25,351 28,156 30,068 30,012 30,991 32,088 32,534 31,649 31,773 31,223 30,496 30,264 30,556 30,495

12-05 8,536 16,043 19,514 20,777 26,740 31,656 32,016 33,196 34,018 33,884 33,592 33,156 33,379 32,953 34,112 34,309 34,126

06-06 8,360 13,229 15,656 19,161 23,333 24,643 27,417 27,861 27,842 29,688 30,186 31,341 31,858 32,454 32,442 31,903

12-06 11,763 19,012 23,354 28,169 33,531 37,803 41,501 43,735 45,093 44,995 46,925 46,625 46,248 46,489 45,420

06-07 12,425 14,223 18,629 22,644 29,583 31,998 32,763 35,067 35,422 36,233 36,064 36,463 37,522 37,764

12-07 10,447 18,217 23,176 24,484 31,890 35,237 36,545 38,318 40,634 40,745 42,101 44,455 46,164

06-08 7,655 13,504 17,655 19,920 27,932 33,202 36,095 38,722 41,866 43,634 43,933 43,022

12-08 9,770 19,657 23,464 28,907 37,436 43,731 46,939 49,868 51,676 52,681 52,443

06-09 9,537 14,565 18,774 21,304 34,499 40,031 42,986 44,823 44,744 45,028

12-09 11,042 20,815 27,265 32,992 47,198 54,922 58,966 61,747 62,446

06-10 11,235 17,708 21,664 26,974 44,271 52,594 55,896 56,291

12-10 12,262 21,317 26,431 33,417 49,749 57,400 61,806

06-11 9,578 17,736 25,053 29,438 41,126 43,454

12-11 11,731 18,528 23,976 31,119 46,383

06-12 8,873 14,170 20,596 24,556

12-12 9,445 17,752 21,513

06-13 9,609 15,296

12-13 16,692

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.725 1.245 1.251 1.324 1.153 1.094 1.003 1.053 0.989 0.992 1.027 0.985 0.980 1.001 0.998 1.011 0.999 0.998 0.993 1.005 0.984 1.004 1.000

12-02 2.086 1.177 1.255 1.224 1.113 1.033 1.026 1.097 1.032 1.022 0.990 0.985 0.969 0.984 1.015 0.985 1.006 0.994 0.999 0.995 1.005 0.995

06-03 1.593 1.133 1.078 1.367 1.075 1.074 1.063 1.033 1.009 0.999 0.947 0.987 1.021 0.996 0.992 1.002 1.003 0.996 0.997 1.010 0.989

12-03 1.598 1.207 1.277 1.292 1.075 1.192 1.039 1.006 1.013 1.011 1.031 0.986 0.981 0.995 1.001 1.005 1.003 0.983 1.004 1.008

06-04 1.561 1.317 1.163 1.220 1.135 1.004 1.048 0.993 1.004 1.009 1.010 1.042 1.000 1.008 0.998 0.986 1.001 1.017 0.997

12-04 1.502 1.280 1.074 1.291 1.106 1.066 1.051 1.008 0.997 1.001 1.035 0.972 0.998 0.998 0.997 0.989 0.997 1.001

06-05 1.758 1.075 1.114 1.370 1.111 1.068 0.998 1.033 1.035 1.014 0.973 1.004 0.983 0.977 0.992 1.010 0.998

12-05 1.879 1.216 1.065 1.287 1.184 1.011 1.037 1.025 0.996 0.991 0.987 1.007 0.987 1.035 1.006 0.995

06-06 1.583 1.183 1.224 1.218 1.056 1.113 1.016 0.999 1.066 1.017 1.038 1.016 1.019 1.000 0.983

12-06 1.616 1.228 1.206 1.190 1.127 1.098 1.054 1.031 0.998 1.043 0.994 0.992 1.005 0.977

06-07 1.145 1.310 1.215 1.306 1.082 1.024 1.070 1.010 1.023 0.995 1.011 1.029 1.006

12-07 1.744 1.272 1.056 1.303 1.105 1.037 1.049 1.060 1.003 1.033 1.056 1.038

06-08 1.764 1.307 1.128 1.402 1.189 1.087 1.073 1.081 1.042 1.007 0.979

12-08 2.012 1.194 1.232 1.295 1.168 1.073 1.062 1.036 1.019 0.995

06-09 1.527 1.289 1.135 1.619 1.160 1.074 1.043 0.998 1.006

12-09 1.885 1.310 1.210 1.431 1.164 1.074 1.047 1.011

06-10 1.576 1.223 1.245 1.641 1.188 1.063 1.007

12-10 1.738 1.240 1.264 1.489 1.154 1.077

06-11 1.852 1.413 1.175 1.397 1.057

12-11 1.579 1.294 1.298 1.490

06-12 1.597 1.454 1.192

12-12 1.879 1.212

06-13 1.592

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.687 1.254 1.184 1.358 1.126 1.070 1.040 1.030 1.015 1.009 1.006 1.004 0.995 0.997 0.998 0.998 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.004 0.993 0.999 1.000

Latest 6 1.706 1.306 1.231 1.511 1.148 1.075 1.047 1.033 1.015 1.015 1.011 1.014 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.998 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.004 0.993 0.999 1.000

Latest 4 1.662 1.343 1.232 1.504 1.141 1.072 1.040 1.032 1.018 1.008 1.010 1.019 1.004 0.997 0.995 0.995 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.004 0.993 0.999 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.693 1.253 1.184 1.351 1.127 1.067 1.041 1.027 1.014 1.008 1.007 1.003 0.996 0.995 0.998 0.998 1.001 0.997 0.998 1.006 0.989 0.999 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.706 1.295 1.220 1.471 1.156 1.066 1.054 1.025 1.015 1.010 1.007 1.014 0.997 0.995 0.998 0.998 1.001 0.997 0.998 1.006 0.989 0.999 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.695 1.292 1.228 1.507 1.161 1.074 1.050 1.030 1.013 1.013 1.007 1.014 0.999 0.996 0.997 0.998 1.001 0.997 0.998 1.006 0.989 0.999 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.672 1.254 1.184 1.367 1.130 1.070 1.041 1.028 1.015 1.010 1.006 1.004 0.996 0.996 0.998 0.997 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.005 0.994 0.999 1.000

Latest 6 1.704 1.299 1.231 1.502 1.149 1.074 1.044 1.031 1.015 1.015 1.010 1.015 1.000 0.998 0.996 0.998 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.005 0.994 0.999 1.000

Latest 4 1.658 1.337 1.234 1.501 1.143 1.072 1.039 1.029 1.018 1.007 1.009 1.018 1.004 0.995 0.995 0.995 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.005 0.994 0.999 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.675 1.322 1.221 1.479 1.170 1.068 1.057 1.035 1.024 1.014 1.010 1.003 0.999 1.002 0.998 0.996 1.001 0.997 0.999 1.003 0.996 0.998 0.997 0.999

GISA 2013-12 1.732 1.306 1.231 1.511 1.148 1.075 1.047 1.033 1.015 1.015 1.011 1.014 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.998 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.002 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.999

KPMG 2013-12 1.732 1.306 1.231 1.511 1.148 1.075 1.047 1.033 1.015 1.015 1.011 1.014 1.000 0.999 0.996 0.998 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.002 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.999

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 5.662 3.380 2.557 2.094 1.416 1.210 1.133 1.072 1.036 1.012 0.998 0.988 0.985 0.986 0.984 0.986 0.990 0.989 0.992 0.993 0.990 0.994 0.996 0.999

GISA 2013-12 5.813 3.356 2.570 2.088 1.382 1.204 1.120 1.070 1.036 1.021 1.006 0.995 0.981 0.981 0.982 0.986 0.988 0.987 0.989 0.991 0.989 0.993 0.996 0.999

KPMG 2013-12 5.813 3.356 2.570 2.088 1.382 1.204 1.120 1.070 1.036 1.021 1.006 0.995 0.981 0.981 0.982 0.986 0.988 0.987 0.989 0.991 0.989 0.993 0.996 0.999

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UA_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:20 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 2,269 3,308 3,626 4,249 5,006 7,068 9,248 11,367 13,346 15,858 17,435 19,072 20,205 20,760 21,914 22,426 22,828 22,953 23,370 23,381 23,416 24,190 24,257 24,289

12-02 2,807 4,803 5,325 6,052 7,939 10,101 12,281 14,937 17,539 20,198 21,355 23,749 25,731 26,361 27,234 27,653 27,880 28,524 29,636 29,912 30,215 30,257 30,316

06-03 3,356 4,887 5,560 6,861 8,215 9,687 11,646 13,878 15,624 17,686 20,988 22,714 23,288 25,112 26,518 28,050 28,699 28,831 29,443 29,520 29,607 29,896

12-03 3,587 5,132 5,491 6,306 8,077 9,290 12,552 15,212 18,410 22,360 24,962 27,439 30,290 31,631 33,588 33,935 34,566 34,839 35,001 35,462 36,084

06-04 3,791 4,860 5,302 6,628 8,066 9,868 12,161 13,220 15,651 17,886 18,835 22,144 25,777 27,656 28,794 29,602 29,720 29,815 30,122 30,675

12-04 3,989 5,428 5,758 7,205 9,023 10,675 13,616 16,596 19,666 22,759 26,042 29,751 32,801 34,047 34,825 35,508 35,625 35,597 35,684

06-05 3,917 5,191 5,681 6,207 6,996 8,164 10,977 13,631 16,033 19,842 22,758 24,757 26,176 27,908 28,457 28,822 29,459 29,681

12-05 3,942 5,733 6,054 6,777 8,365 9,858 12,455 14,617 17,811 21,819 24,177 26,920 28,653 29,345 30,092 31,754 32,096

06-06 3,439 4,584 4,903 5,911 6,741 7,413 8,710 11,704 14,046 17,895 19,792 22,780 24,413 25,522 26,914 27,474

12-06 3,356 4,798 5,268 6,400 8,343 10,967 16,100 19,834 24,224 27,889 31,686 35,646 39,003 41,081 42,014

06-07 3,266 4,369 5,080 6,100 7,359 9,187 11,384 13,827 15,929 19,251 23,934 26,921 28,881 31,606

12-07 3,131 4,178 5,022 6,044 8,060 10,615 13,317 15,645 20,867 23,718 26,945 31,012 33,973

06-08 2,375 3,287 3,457 4,030 4,886 7,335 11,005 14,070 17,253 22,317 27,078 30,860

12-08 2,264 3,648 4,466 5,353 7,736 10,880 15,412 19,353 24,506 28,880 34,454

06-09 2,333 3,157 3,471 4,606 6,504 9,763 12,818 17,313 21,630 25,904

12-09 2,991 4,232 4,650 5,945 7,899 11,214 16,235 23,151 32,193

06-10 2,812 3,780 4,267 5,725 8,170 11,328 15,821 22,032

12-10 3,116 4,677 5,725 7,528 10,837 15,154 19,374

06-11 2,829 3,892 4,659 6,426 8,142 12,484

12-11 3,061 4,940 5,301 6,410 8,392

06-12 2,681 3,597 4,039 5,751

12-12 3,006 4,127 4,972

06-13 2,564 3,794

12-13 2,745

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.458 1.096 1.172 1.178 1.412 1.308 1.229 1.174 1.188 1.099 1.094 1.059 1.027 1.056 1.023 1.018 1.006 1.018 1.000 1.002 1.033 1.003 1.001

12-02 1.711 1.108 1.137 1.312 1.272 1.216 1.216 1.174 1.152 1.057 1.112 1.083 1.024 1.033 1.015 1.008 1.023 1.039 1.009 1.010 1.001 1.002

06-03 1.456 1.138 1.234 1.197 1.179 1.202 1.192 1.126 1.132 1.187 1.082 1.025 1.078 1.056 1.058 1.023 1.005 1.021 1.003 1.003 1.010

12-03 1.430 1.070 1.148 1.281 1.150 1.351 1.212 1.210 1.215 1.116 1.099 1.104 1.044 1.062 1.010 1.019 1.008 1.005 1.013 1.018

06-04 1.282 1.091 1.250 1.217 1.223 1.232 1.087 1.184 1.143 1.053 1.176 1.164 1.073 1.041 1.028 1.004 1.003 1.010 1.018

12-04 1.361 1.061 1.251 1.252 1.183 1.276 1.219 1.185 1.157 1.144 1.142 1.103 1.038 1.023 1.020 1.003 0.999 1.002

06-05 1.325 1.094 1.092 1.127 1.167 1.344 1.242 1.176 1.238 1.147 1.088 1.057 1.066 1.020 1.013 1.022 1.008

12-05 1.454 1.056 1.119 1.234 1.178 1.263 1.174 1.218 1.225 1.108 1.113 1.064 1.024 1.025 1.055 1.011

06-06 1.333 1.070 1.206 1.140 1.100 1.175 1.344 1.200 1.274 1.106 1.151 1.072 1.045 1.055 1.021

12-06 1.430 1.098 1.215 1.303 1.315 1.468 1.232 1.221 1.151 1.136 1.125 1.094 1.053 1.023

06-07 1.338 1.163 1.201 1.206 1.248 1.239 1.215 1.152 1.209 1.243 1.125 1.073 1.094

12-07 1.334 1.202 1.203 1.334 1.317 1.255 1.175 1.334 1.137 1.136 1.151 1.095

06-08 1.384 1.052 1.166 1.212 1.501 1.500 1.278 1.226 1.294 1.213 1.140

12-08 1.611 1.224 1.199 1.445 1.406 1.417 1.256 1.266 1.178 1.193

06-09 1.353 1.099 1.327 1.412 1.501 1.313 1.351 1.249 1.198

12-09 1.415 1.099 1.279 1.329 1.420 1.448 1.426 1.391

06-10 1.344 1.129 1.342 1.427 1.387 1.397 1.393

12-10 1.501 1.224 1.315 1.440 1.398 1.278

06-11 1.376 1.197 1.379 1.267 1.533

12-11 1.614 1.073 1.209 1.309

06-12 1.342 1.123 1.424

12-12 1.373 1.205

06-13 1.479

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.422 1.121 1.232 1.281 1.310 1.316 1.249 1.218 1.193 1.139 1.123 1.083 1.052 1.039 1.027 1.013 1.007 1.016 1.009 1.008 1.015 1.002 1.001

Latest 6 1.448 1.158 1.325 1.364 1.441 1.392 1.313 1.270 1.194 1.171 1.134 1.076 1.054 1.031 1.024 1.014 1.008 1.016 1.009 1.008 1.015 1.002 1.001

Latest 4 1.452 1.149 1.332 1.361 1.434 1.359 1.356 1.283 1.202 1.196 1.135 1.084 1.054 1.031 1.027 1.010 1.004 1.010 1.011 1.008 1.015 1.002 1.001

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.415 1.120 1.229 1.281 1.309 1.313 1.248 1.212 1.190 1.137 1.122 1.081 1.050 1.039 1.025 1.014 1.006 1.014 1.008 1.007 1.010 1.002 1.001

Latest 8x1 1.415 1.142 1.308 1.364 1.436 1.351 1.287 1.250 1.206 1.156 1.133 1.084 1.053 1.037 1.025 1.014 1.006 1.014 1.008 1.007 1.010 1.002 1.001

Latest 6x1 1.432 1.163 1.329 1.369 1.431 1.393 1.319 1.269 1.184 1.170 1.135 1.076 1.051 1.028 1.020 1.014 1.006 1.014 1.008 1.007 1.010 1.002 1.001

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.416 1.119 1.227 1.281 1.305 1.317 1.253 1.227 1.190 1.141 1.123 1.084 1.052 1.038 1.027 1.013 1.007 1.015 1.009 1.009 1.013 1.002 1.001

Latest 6 1.450 1.158 1.319 1.363 1.437 1.381 1.319 1.281 1.189 1.171 1.134 1.078 1.053 1.030 1.024 1.013 1.007 1.015 1.009 1.009 1.013 1.002 1.001

Latest 4 1.455 1.146 1.324 1.362 1.432 1.354 1.358 1.294 1.197 1.194 1.135 1.085 1.055 1.029 1.027 1.010 1.004 1.009 1.011 1.009 1.013 1.002 1.001


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.496 1.158 1.325 1.364 1.441 1.392 1.313 1.270 1.194 1.171 1.134 1.076 1.054 1.031 1.024 1.014 1.008 1.016 1.009 1.008 1.010 1.002 1.001 1.025

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 21.800 14.572 12.579 9.497 6.963 4.832 3.471 2.644 2.082 1.743 1.488 1.312 1.220 1.158 1.123 1.096 1.081 1.073 1.056 1.047 1.039 1.029 1.026 1.025

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UA_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:20 PM






06-02 768 875 900 902 902 895 889 879 876 879 880 879 876 874 876 873 874 872 870 870 869 870 870 871

12-02 928 1,177 1,178 1,171 1,167 1,156 1,150 1,155 1,154 1,159 1,158 1,157 1,154 1,154 1,152 1,152 1,152 1,150 1,143 1,139 1,139 1,137 1,137

06-03 1,123 1,307 1,295 1,278 1,266 1,248 1,249 1,242 1,227 1,218 1,206 1,203 1,207 1,201 1,198 1,196 1,195 1,193 1,193 1,192 1,193 1,193

12-03 1,162 1,348 1,315 1,322 1,291 1,291 1,282 1,281 1,285 1,276 1,274 1,278 1,277 1,274 1,273 1,270 1,270 1,269 1,268 1,267 1,267

06-04 1,148 1,229 1,223 1,193 1,209 1,204 1,193 1,180 1,184 1,182 1,181 1,171 1,165 1,163 1,163 1,162 1,161 1,161 1,160 1,160

12-04 1,221 1,476 1,393 1,400 1,385 1,369 1,370 1,366 1,363 1,359 1,352 1,350 1,346 1,344 1,343 1,341 1,341 1,342 1,341

06-05 1,149 1,282 1,296 1,295 1,297 1,288 1,273 1,267 1,264 1,260 1,252 1,244 1,245 1,244 1,244 1,243 1,241 1,242

12-05 1,120 1,446 1,444 1,441 1,438 1,420 1,423 1,412 1,402 1,394 1,393 1,390 1,387 1,386 1,379 1,378 1,378

06-06 1,037 1,253 1,259 1,268 1,263 1,270 1,272 1,267 1,258 1,255 1,255 1,251 1,251 1,249 1,247 1,247

12-06 995 1,261 1,278 1,281 1,298 1,283 1,279 1,274 1,275 1,270 1,266 1,264 1,261 1,256 1,252

06-07 1,037 1,206 1,222 1,242 1,237 1,227 1,214 1,212 1,210 1,208 1,206 1,206 1,203 1,202

12-07 1,027 1,277 1,356 1,353 1,327 1,318 1,306 1,300 1,294 1,293 1,288 1,282 1,280

06-08 965 1,156 1,172 1,171 1,147 1,135 1,127 1,120 1,116 1,110 1,101 1,093

12-08 838 1,111 1,120 1,104 1,097 1,088 1,084 1,081 1,078 1,076 1,070

06-09 799 956 987 979 979 974 975 975 977 977

12-09 914 1,158 1,168 1,169 1,167 1,153 1,147 1,141 1,131

06-10 953 1,099 1,097 1,093 1,080 1,063 1,046 1,027

12-10 932 1,136 1,147 1,147 1,148 1,146 1,144

06-11 878 1,004 996 981 953 940

12-11 847 1,012 1,023 1,027 1,013

06-12 797 903 900 887

12-12 814 968 965

06-13 735 826

12-13 677

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.139 1.029 1.002 1.000 0.992 0.993 0.989 0.997 1.003 1.001 0.999 0.997 0.998 1.002 0.997 1.001 0.998 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.001 1.000 1.001

12-02 1.268 1.001 0.994 0.997 0.991 0.995 1.004 0.999 1.004 0.999 0.999 0.997 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.994 0.997 1.000 0.998 1.000

06-03 1.164 0.991 0.987 0.991 0.986 1.001 0.994 0.988 0.993 0.990 0.998 1.003 0.995 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.001 1.000

12-03 1.160 0.976 1.005 0.977 1.000 0.993 0.999 1.003 0.993 0.998 1.003 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.998 1.000 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000

06-04 1.071 0.995 0.975 1.013 0.996 0.991 0.989 1.004 0.998 0.999 0.992 0.995 0.998 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000

12-04 1.209 0.944 1.005 0.989 0.988 1.001 0.997 0.998 0.997 0.995 0.999 0.997 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.001 0.999

06-05 1.116 1.011 0.999 1.002 0.993 0.988 0.995 0.998 0.997 0.994 0.994 1.001 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.998 1.001

12-05 1.291 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.987 1.002 0.992 0.993 0.994 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.995 0.999 1.000

06-06 1.208 1.005 1.007 0.996 1.006 1.002 0.996 0.993 0.998 1.000 0.997 1.000 0.998 0.998 1.000

12-06 1.267 1.013 1.003 1.013 0.988 0.997 0.996 1.001 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.996 0.997

06-07 1.164 1.013 1.016 0.996 0.992 0.989 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 1.000 0.998 0.999

12-07 1.244 1.062 0.998 0.981 0.993 0.991 0.995 0.995 0.999 0.996 0.995 0.998

06-08 1.198 1.014 0.999 0.980 0.990 0.993 0.994 0.996 0.995 0.992 0.993

12-08 1.326 1.008 0.986 0.994 0.992 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.998 0.994

06-09 1.196 1.032 0.992 1.000 0.995 1.001 1.000 1.002 1.000

12-09 1.267 1.009 1.001 0.998 0.988 0.995 0.995 0.991

06-10 1.153 0.998 0.996 0.988 0.984 0.984 0.982

12-10 1.219 1.010 1.000 1.001 0.998 0.998

06-11 1.144 0.992 0.985 0.971 0.986

12-11 1.195 1.011 1.004 0.986

06-12 1.133 0.997 0.986

12-12 1.189 0.997

06-13 1.124

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.193 1.005 0.997 0.994 0.992 0.995 0.995 0.997 0.998 0.997 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

Latest 6 1.167 1.001 0.995 0.991 0.991 0.995 0.994 0.997 0.998 0.996 0.997 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

Latest 4 1.160 0.999 0.994 0.987 0.989 0.995 0.993 0.997 0.998 0.995 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.193 1.005 0.997 0.994 0.992 0.995 0.995 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

Latest 8x1 1.172 1.003 0.993 0.991 0.991 0.994 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

Latest 6x1 1.165 1.000 0.996 0.993 0.990 0.996 0.995 0.997 0.998 0.996 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.193 1.004 0.997 0.994 0.992 0.995 0.995 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

Latest 6 1.169 1.001 0.996 0.991 0.991 0.995 0.994 0.997 0.998 0.996 0.997 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001

Latest 4 1.162 0.999 0.994 0.987 0.989 0.994 0.993 0.997 0.998 0.995 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.997 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-06 1.165 1.003 0.996 0.992 0.991 0.993 0.997 0.998 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.201 1.001 0.995 0.991 0.991 0.995 0.994 0.997 0.998 0.996 0.997 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.201 1.001 0.995 0.991 0.991 0.995 0.994 0.997 0.998 0.996 0.997 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-06 1.108 0.951 0.948 0.952 0.960 0.969 0.976 0.979 0.981 0.984 0.987 0.990 0.992 0.994 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.998 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

GISA 2013-12 1.135 0.945 0.944 0.949 0.958 0.967 0.972 0.978 0.981 0.983 0.987 0.990 0.991 0.993 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.135 0.945 0.944 0.949 0.958 0.967 0.972 0.978 0.981 0.983 0.987 0.990 0.991 0.993 0.995 0.996 0.997 0.997 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UA_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:20 PM






06-02 631 827 858 882 884 881 881 875 875 878 875 878 875 872 872 872 871 871 870 870 869 869 869 869

12-02 723 1,088 1,130 1,141 1,146 1,144 1,147 1,150 1,151 1,152 1,153 1,153 1,152 1,151 1,149 1,149 1,149 1,148 1,142 1,139 1,139 1,137 1,137

06-03 830 1,167 1,226 1,226 1,230 1,234 1,234 1,232 1,219 1,209 1,198 1,198 1,198 1,196 1,194 1,193 1,193 1,191 1,191 1,190 1,190 1,191

12-03 906 1,255 1,271 1,270 1,267 1,269 1,268 1,267 1,269 1,268 1,271 1,270 1,270 1,271 1,270 1,268 1,268 1,268 1,266 1,266 1,267

06-04 887 1,141 1,170 1,172 1,178 1,173 1,169 1,169 1,170 1,171 1,169 1,166 1,162 1,159 1,159 1,160 1,161 1,161 1,160 1,160

12-04 952 1,359 1,377 1,382 1,368 1,355 1,352 1,351 1,349 1,348 1,343 1,343 1,342 1,340 1,338 1,337 1,338 1,338 1,337

06-05 941 1,244 1,270 1,274 1,267 1,263 1,258 1,257 1,253 1,254 1,250 1,245 1,244 1,243 1,241 1,239 1,239 1,239

12-05 959 1,402 1,432 1,430 1,431 1,415 1,414 1,407 1,398 1,392 1,390 1,389 1,386 1,383 1,379 1,375 1,374

06-06 870 1,221 1,243 1,255 1,255 1,252 1,257 1,256 1,253 1,249 1,246 1,246 1,246 1,245 1,244 1,244

12-06 851 1,227 1,260 1,258 1,274 1,271 1,266 1,263 1,263 1,259 1,257 1,255 1,250 1,248 1,246

06-07 891 1,175 1,205 1,212 1,213 1,212 1,206 1,205 1,199 1,200 1,203 1,202 1,200 1,197

12-07 832 1,214 1,261 1,282 1,285 1,286 1,288 1,285 1,281 1,281 1,277 1,275 1,275

06-08 813 1,058 1,089 1,099 1,103 1,109 1,106 1,104 1,102 1,099 1,092 1,087

12-08 629 1,007 1,039 1,058 1,066 1,066 1,066 1,066 1,066 1,067 1,063

06-09 675 909 959 960 967 966 967 968 970 970

12-09 774 1,123 1,147 1,157 1,154 1,147 1,141 1,133 1,124

06-10 817 1,060 1,077 1,078 1,074 1,059 1,040 1,024

12-10 772 1,107 1,132 1,137 1,138 1,141 1,140

06-11 731 972 986 970 945 934

12-11 684 971 990 994 990

06-12 682 865 871 868

12-12 690 941 948

06-13 623 813

12-13 551

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.311 1.037 1.028 1.002 0.997 1.000 0.993 1.000 1.003 0.997 1.003 0.997 0.997 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.505 1.039 1.010 1.004 0.998 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.999 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.995 0.997 1.000 0.998 1.000

06-03 1.406 1.051 1.000 1.003 1.003 1.000 0.998 0.989 0.992 0.991 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.998 0.999 1.000 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.001

12-03 1.385 1.013 0.999 0.998 1.002 0.999 0.999 1.002 0.999 1.002 0.999 1.000 1.001 0.999 0.998 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.000 1.001

06-04 1.286 1.025 1.002 1.005 0.996 0.997 1.000 1.001 1.001 0.998 0.997 0.997 0.997 1.000 1.001 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.000

12-04 1.428 1.013 1.004 0.990 0.990 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.996 1.000 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 1.001 1.000 0.999

06-05 1.322 1.021 1.003 0.995 0.997 0.996 0.999 0.997 1.001 0.997 0.996 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.998 1.000 1.000

12-05 1.462 1.021 0.999 1.001 0.989 0.999 0.995 0.994 0.996 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.997 0.997 0.999

06-06 1.403 1.018 1.010 1.000 0.998 1.004 0.999 0.998 0.997 0.998 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000

12-06 1.442 1.027 0.998 1.013 0.998 0.996 0.998 1.000 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.996 0.998 0.998

06-07 1.319 1.026 1.006 1.001 0.999 0.995 0.999 0.995 1.001 1.003 0.999 0.998 0.998

12-07 1.459 1.039 1.017 1.002 1.001 1.002 0.998 0.997 1.000 0.997 0.998 1.000

06-08 1.301 1.029 1.009 1.004 1.005 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.997 0.994 0.995

12-08 1.601 1.032 1.018 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 0.996

06-09 1.347 1.055 1.001 1.007 0.999 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.000

12-09 1.451 1.021 1.009 0.997 0.994 0.995 0.993 0.992

06-10 1.297 1.016 1.001 0.996 0.986 0.982 0.985

12-10 1.434 1.023 1.004 1.001 1.003 0.999

06-11 1.330 1.014 0.984 0.974 0.988

12-11 1.420 1.020 1.004 0.996

06-12 1.268 1.007 0.997

12-12 1.364 1.007

06-13 1.305

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.385 1.025 1.005 1.000 0.997 0.998 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.353 1.014 1.000 0.995 0.995 0.996 0.996 0.997 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.339 1.012 0.997 0.992 0.993 0.994 0.995 0.998 1.000 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.380 1.025 1.005 1.001 0.997 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.358 1.017 1.003 1.000 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.997 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.355 1.014 1.001 0.998 0.995 0.998 0.997 0.998 1.000 0.997 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.384 1.025 1.005 1.000 0.997 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 6 1.356 1.015 1.000 0.996 0.995 0.996 0.996 0.997 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Latest 4 1.340 1.012 0.997 0.992 0.993 0.994 0.995 0.998 1.000 0.997 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.406 1.014 1.001 0.998 0.995 0.998 0.997 0.998 1.000 0.997 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.999 0.999 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 1.392 0.990 0.976 0.975 0.977 0.982 0.984 0.987 0.989 0.990 0.992 0.994 0.995 0.996 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UA_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:20 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Appendix A - Segment XIII


Underinsured Motorist


NOT PRINTED

KPMG

Ultimate Projection Method - Claims KPMG Selected Ultimate Indicated GISA Selected Testing of BF Method

Accident Development Bornhuetter-Ferguson Frequency- Claims at IBNR at Ultimate Claims at Expected at 12/31/2013

Year Reported Paid Reported Paid Severity 06/30/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Difference

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 13,208 13,081 13,209 13,082 13,472 12,655 13,208 53 13,208 0

12-02 20,801 18,936 20,770 18,919 14,575 20,608 20,801 103 20,801 0

06-03 13,271 13,236 13,282 13,245 14,776 13,262 13,271 102 13,208 62

12-03 14,024 13,352 14,043 13,371 15,784 14,030 14,024 151 13,970 53

06-04 14,548 13,872 14,570 13,895 16,127 14,636 14,548 199 14,564 (16)

12-04 20,896 18,215 20,834 18,194 17,181 21,079 20,896 348 20,959 (63)

06-05 19,885 19,293 19,835 19,241 17,555 19,601 19,885 428 19,807 78

12-05 18,663 14,326 18,668 14,490 18,856 19,327 18,663 493 18,351 311

06-06 15,744 13,497 15,854 13,832 19,260 15,263 15,744 492 15,329 416

12-06 26,996 25,672 26,768 25,270 20,666 27,953 26,996 974 26,439 557

06-07 17,643 17,098 17,787 17,612 21,116 17,977 17,643 728 17,440 203

12-07 29,388 22,977 28,955 22,864 22,302 29,084 29,388 1,796 28,834 554

06-08 20,912 15,634 21,027 17,305 22,549 20,114 20,912 1,472 20,217 695

12-08 24,971 23,727 24,866 23,700 23,649 22,961 24,971 1,988 24,248 724

06-09 17,718 13,371 18,294 18,010 23,616 18,869 17,718 1,730 17,171 547

12-09 34,461 26,043 33,492 25,351 24,800 36,482 34,461 3,458 33,700 761

06-10 25,408 26,536 25,330 25,357 24,784 25,722 25,408 3,170 24,617 791

12-10 32,065 17,301 31,188 24,045 26,066 32,808 32,065 4,688 31,347 718

06-11 29,288 11,637 28,685 24,029 26,061 31,588 28,685 4,866 28,225 460

12-11 32,816 25,747 31,366 27,259 27,377 40,837 31,366 7,301 32,199 (833)

06-12 22,079 28,755 24,739 27,580 27,550 25,441 24,739 13,394 19,888 4,851

12-12 24,091 41,964 26,891 29,040 28,883 26,535 26,891 16,877 21,541 5,350

06-13 31,824 47,454 29,939 29,094 28,987 35,304 29,939 19,261 28,852 1,087

12-13 32,502 50,904 30,901 30,607 30,536 30,901 24,866 29,303 1,598

Total 553,202 532,627 551,292 505,392 526,528 28,946,729 553,123 108,937 534,218 18,906

GISA 534,218 534,218

Diff -3.43% 3.54%

Column Notes:





(6) = [Column (9) from Appendix A - Segment XIII, Page 2] x [Column (12) from Appendix A - Segment XIII, Page 2].

(7) From June 30, 2013 analysis.



(10) From GISA.

(11) = [(10) - (8)].IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UM_All -2013-12 Ult-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:17 PM





NOT PRINTED






(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)

Gross of Reinsurance06-02 2,775,966 132 132 132 0.005% 0.003% 85 98,904 100,060 157,799

12-02 2,898,089 120 117 120 0.004% 0.004% 0.003% 87 161,204 173,340 168,484

06-03 2,835,315 112 110 112 0.004% 0.004% 0.003% 82 120,895 118,383 179,891

12-03 2,922,615 102 97 102 0.003% 0.003% 0.003% 82 138,316 137,355 192,071

06-04 2,881,487 95 86 95 0.003% 0.003% 0.003% 79 160,956 153,464 205,076

12-04 2,962,479 130 123 130 0.004% 0.004% 0.003% 78 148,173 160,493 218,961

06-05 2,920,891 117 113 117 0.004% 0.004% 0.003% 75 174,900 169,652 233,787

12-05 3,027,633 104 93 104 0.003% 0.003% 0.002% 76 157,253 179,899 249,616

06-06 2,984,180 88 80 88 0.003% 0.003% 0.002% 72 173,698 178,372 266,517

12-06 3,089,922 121 117 121 0.004% 0.004% 0.002% 73 227,023 223,735 284,562

06-07 3,046,565 109 105 109 0.004% 0.004% 0.002% 69 166,077 161,991 303,829

12-07 3,155,076 130 116 130 0.004% 0.004% 0.002% 76 198,731 225,394 292,530

06-08 3,127,983 124 108 124 0.004% 0.004% 0.003% 80 145,914 168,229 281,650

12-08 3,216,718 130 104 130 0.004% 0.004% 0.003% 87 226,445 191,454 271,175

06-09 3,149,695 106 77 106 0.003% 0.003% 0.003% 90 175,399 166,622 261,089

12-09 3,243,227 169 103 169 0.005% 0.005% 0.003% 99 257,610 204,078 251,379

06-10 3,178,056 160 86 160 0.005% 0.005% 0.003% 102 317,372 159,231 242,030

12-10 3,277,439 180 88 180 0.005% 0.005% 0.003% 112 194,230 178,067 233,028

06-11 3,213,027 144 71 144 0.004% 0.003% 0.004% 116 151,765 203,257 224,362

12-11 3,309,544 176 114 176 0.005% 0.004% 0.004% 127 221,986 186,614 216,017

06-12 3,265,631 164 96 164 0.005% 0.004% 0.004% 132 291,680 134,749 207,983

12-12 3,356,963 217 133 217 0.006% 0.005% 0.004% 144 340,225 110,946 200,248

06-13 3,303,492 274 183 274 0.008% 0.006% 0.005% 150 290,147 116,023 192,801

12-13 3,412,332 307 170 307 0.009% 0.006% 0.005% 165 346,358 105,959 185,630

Total 74,554,326 3,512 2,622 3,512 Medial 10 x 2013 2,340

Ave 10 x 2013

Ave 8 x 2013

Ave 6 x 2013

Selected H1

Selected H2

Column Notes:

(2) From GISA.




(6) = [(5) / (2)].



(9) = [(2) x (8)].


(11) = [Column (4) from Appendix A - Segment XIII, Page 1] x 1000 / (3).


IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UM_All -2013-12 Freq-Sev-KPMG 11/4/2014 1:17 PM





Reported Claims

Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 1,251 3,212 4,754 6,067 8,940 11,064 10,164 10,575 12,416 11,799 11,485 12,547 12,832 12,188 12,177 11,702 11,685 11,765 12,400 12,358 12,459 12,632 12,678 13,155

12-02 2,737 4,204 6,447 9,929 11,862 15,878 17,394 20,500 20,449 21,733 22,533 20,409 19,749 20,164 21,028 20,936 19,948 19,907 19,986 20,323 20,615 20,652 20,697

06-03 3,430 6,915 9,171 10,128 10,081 13,530 15,107 15,196 14,469 13,911 13,284 13,498 12,631 13,885 14,545 13,885 13,736 13,462 13,300 13,301 13,236 13,169

12-03 2,659 4,265 5,554 5,770 9,189 13,751 11,174 11,638 12,207 13,513 12,921 12,249 12,722 13,302 13,073 13,288 13,488 13,599 14,090 13,847 13,873

06-04 2,918 4,934 7,871 9,804 13,358 13,737 13,744 14,040 15,861 14,398 13,961 15,552 15,390 15,392 15,301 15,284 14,737 14,724 14,374 14,349

12-04 3,950 7,771 8,255 10,627 11,319 13,166 14,304 16,949 16,336 16,853 17,873 18,054 19,546 20,520 20,707 21,114 20,915 20,593 20,548

06-05 7,454 10,761 14,838 16,288 20,461 20,724 21,997 20,879 19,937 18,897 18,526 19,170 18,458 18,769 19,449 19,175 19,234 19,457

12-05 7,042 13,442 17,920 19,695 21,627 23,213 20,931 20,508 20,175 18,900 18,551 18,809 17,953 18,282 18,808 19,003 18,170

06-06 4,611 6,708 8,607 11,554 15,994 17,087 15,488 15,379 15,692 15,658 16,144 14,791 14,906 14,909 14,828 15,252

12-06 4,848 9,658 13,503 14,319 20,383 20,954 22,202 24,278 25,413 26,124 25,971 25,679 25,899 26,628 26,022

06-07 5,032 14,747 16,308 17,059 17,126 17,604 17,705 18,516 17,229 16,864 17,524 17,539 16,857 16,916

12-07 5,588 9,677 11,499 13,872 17,838 19,689 19,958 20,956 22,593 24,155 26,671 27,457 27,592

06-08 2,105 7,096 8,244 11,547 15,038 15,720 16,841 17,811 18,755 19,112 18,807 19,439

12-08 2,221 7,401 8,005 11,202 15,080 16,399 18,857 19,351 21,863 20,986 22,984

06-09 4,409 6,438 8,439 10,273 14,955 17,135 17,564 16,774 17,007 15,988

12-09 6,698 13,387 17,610 20,722 27,163 29,749 30,808 31,556 31,003

06-10 4,094 6,086 8,705 12,220 17,745 21,242 21,510 22,238

12-10 4,707 9,739 11,042 13,444 24,198 26,398 27,378

06-11 3,186 10,161 11,859 14,728 22,354 23,819

12-11 9,114 12,758 15,679 20,039 24,065

06-12 3,963 7,342 9,934 11,345

12-12 5,851 8,184 10,014

06-13 5,756 10,678

12-13 6,036

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 2.568 1.480 1.276 1.473 1.238 0.919 1.040 1.174 0.950 0.973 1.092 1.023 0.950 0.999 0.961 0.999 1.007 1.054 0.997 1.008 1.014 1.004 1.038

12-02 1.536 1.533 1.540 1.195 1.339 1.095 1.179 0.998 1.063 1.037 0.906 0.968 1.021 1.043 0.996 0.953 0.998 1.004 1.017 1.014 1.002 1.002

06-03 2.016 1.326 1.104 0.995 1.342 1.117 1.006 0.952 0.961 0.955 1.016 0.936 1.099 1.048 0.955 0.989 0.980 0.988 1.000 0.995 0.995

12-03 1.604 1.302 1.039 1.592 1.496 0.813 1.042 1.049 1.107 0.956 0.948 1.039 1.046 0.983 1.016 1.015 1.008 1.036 0.983 1.002

06-04 1.691 1.595 1.246 1.362 1.028 1.001 1.022 1.130 0.908 0.970 1.114 0.990 1.000 0.994 0.999 0.964 0.999 0.976 0.998

12-04 1.967 1.062 1.287 1.065 1.163 1.086 1.185 0.964 1.032 1.061 1.010 1.083 1.050 1.009 1.020 0.991 0.985 0.998

06-05 1.444 1.379 1.098 1.256 1.013 1.061 0.949 0.955 0.948 0.980 1.035 0.963 1.017 1.036 0.986 1.003 1.012

12-05 1.909 1.333 1.099 1.098 1.073 0.902 0.980 0.984 0.937 0.982 1.014 0.954 1.018 1.029 1.010 0.956

06-06 1.455 1.283 1.342 1.384 1.068 0.906 0.993 1.020 0.998 1.031 0.916 1.008 1.000 0.995 1.029

12-06 1.992 1.398 1.060 1.424 1.028 1.060 1.094 1.047 1.028 0.994 0.989 1.009 1.028 0.977

06-07 2.930 1.106 1.046 1.004 1.028 1.006 1.046 0.931 0.979 1.039 1.001 0.961 1.004

12-07 1.732 1.188 1.206 1.286 1.104 1.014 1.050 1.078 1.069 1.104 1.029 1.005

06-08 3.370 1.162 1.401 1.302 1.045 1.071 1.058 1.053 1.019 0.984 1.034

12-08 3.333 1.082 1.399 1.346 1.087 1.150 1.026 1.130 0.960 1.095

06-09 1.460 1.311 1.217 1.456 1.146 1.025 0.955 1.014 0.940

12-09 1.999 1.315 1.177 1.311 1.095 1.036 1.024 0.982

06-10 1.486 1.430 1.404 1.452 1.197 1.013 1.034

12-10 2.069 1.134 1.218 1.800 1.091 1.037

06-11 3.189 1.167 1.242 1.518 1.066

12-11 1.400 1.229 1.278 1.201

06-12 1.853 1.353 1.142

12-12 1.399 1.224

06-13 1.855

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 2.011 1.291 1.230 1.326 1.139 1.017 1.040 1.029 0.993 1.012 1.008 0.995 1.021 1.011 0.997 0.984 0.998 1.009 0.999 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.038

Latest 6 1.961 1.256 1.243 1.456 1.114 1.055 1.024 1.031 0.999 1.041 0.997 0.983 1.019 1.007 1.010 0.986 0.997 1.009 0.999 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.038

Latest 4 1.627 1.243 1.220 1.493 1.112 1.028 1.010 1.045 0.997 1.056 1.013 0.996 1.013 1.009 1.011 0.979 1.001 1.000 0.999 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.038

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.976 1.287 1.223 1.318 1.126 1.022 1.036 1.025 0.991 1.009 1.008 0.992 1.020 1.011 0.998 0.984 0.999 1.006 0.998 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.038

Latest 8x1 1.777 1.267 1.255 1.397 1.098 1.033 1.040 1.032 0.987 1.021 1.013 0.989 1.019 1.008 1.004 0.984 0.999 1.006 0.998 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.038

Latest 6x1 1.794 1.243 1.229 1.434 1.105 1.042 1.034 1.032 0.996 1.040 1.008 0.984 1.017 1.007 1.011 0.987 0.997 1.006 0.998 1.005 1.002 1.003 1.038

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.887 1.267 1.207 1.307 1.115 1.019 1.037 1.022 0.994 1.017 1.004 0.994 1.021 1.011 0.998 0.982 0.998 1.007 1.000 1.006 1.003 1.003 1.038

Latest 6 1.807 1.239 1.236 1.427 1.109 1.050 1.025 1.028 1.003 1.042 1.000 0.986 1.021 1.005 1.009 0.986 0.997 1.007 1.000 1.006 1.003 1.003 1.038

Latest 4 1.578 1.235 1.228 1.462 1.107 1.029 1.013 1.037 1.000 1.060 1.013 0.998 1.015 1.007 1.010 0.980 1.000 0.999 1.001 1.006 1.003 1.003 1.038


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.797 1.256 1.227 1.310 1.129 1.035 1.034 1.018 1.012 1.018 1.014 0.995 1.014 1.015 1.011 0.995 0.992 0.998 1.005 1.008 1.004 0.998 1.001 1.004

KPMG 2013-12 1.807 1.239 1.236 1.427 1.109 1.050 1.025 1.028 1.003 1.020 1.010 1.010 1.021 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.005 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.001 1.004

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 4.855 2.702 2.151 1.753 1.338 1.185 1.145 1.107 1.087 1.074 1.055 1.040 1.045 1.031 1.016 1.005 1.010 1.018 1.020 1.015 1.007 1.003 1.005 1.004

KPMG 2013-12 5.385 2.980 2.406 1.946 1.364 1.230 1.171 1.143 1.112 1.108 1.086 1.076 1.065 1.043 1.037 1.032 1.027 1.022 1.017 1.014 1.011 1.008 1.005 1.004

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UM_All -2013-12 Rptd_G 11/4/2014 1:17 PM






Accident Half-Yr 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144

06-02 182 496 553 657 862 1,629 2,229 3,753 4,569 7,396 7,994 8,177 9,238 9,695 9,945 10,362 10,804 10,860 11,532 11,504 11,607 12,238 12,392 13,055

12-02 125 235 344 570 2,061 3,554 6,045 6,756 8,133 9,732 10,236 12,715 16,355 17,035 17,944 18,029 18,120 18,377 18,604 18,792 18,823 18,841 18,861

06-03 182 284 341 1,656 1,852 2,274 3,948 4,524 6,321 7,049 7,622 8,782 8,973 10,237 10,853 11,148 11,250 11,891 12,880 13,142 13,153 13,156

12-03 204 323 459 590 806 1,783 2,340 2,870 5,406 5,868 7,217 8,870 9,661 11,032 11,468 12,044 12,466 12,541 13,182 13,214 13,246

06-04 309 481 1,095 1,845 3,554 4,874 5,514 5,861 6,299 8,083 8,649 10,498 11,578 12,196 13,212 13,279 13,384 13,439 13,484 13,734

12-04 296 502 637 1,489 1,858 2,179 4,059 5,304 6,343 8,337 9,857 13,253 13,969 14,535 16,642 17,320 17,694 17,754 17,849

06-05 358 655 892 1,017 2,412 4,044 5,214 7,311 9,711 11,182 11,971 14,579 15,966 16,417 17,516 17,799 18,646 18,718

12-05 193 312 394 543 2,036 2,441 4,794 6,427 7,479 9,000 9,727 11,077 11,980 12,063 12,302 13,495 13,806

06-06 124 187 501 997 1,227 1,530 2,327 5,058 7,407 8,617 10,070 10,626 11,892 12,076 12,648 12,712

12-06 172 998 1,145 2,127 2,887 3,336 6,129 10,192 13,526 14,880 17,582 19,580 21,460 22,914 23,610

06-07 245 956 1,141 1,314 1,824 2,571 3,859 4,749 5,757 7,891 10,064 11,686 13,774 14,911

12-07 176 232 772 897 1,353 1,926 4,338 5,635 9,159 10,371 14,129 17,561 19,121

06-08 21 188 904 1,086 1,759 3,364 4,131 5,896 6,784 8,727 10,746 11,857

12-08 45 86 201 291 967 1,944 3,753 5,694 8,326 12,751 15,473

06-09 9 106 165 324 828 3,252 4,278 5,224 5,890 7,316

12-09 27 54 140 295 1,309 2,716 4,765 7,598 11,556

06-10 33 49 150 575 1,986 3,260 6,016 8,682

12-10 52 92 173 302 1,019 2,707 3,990

06-11 76 142 179 457 1,240 1,640

12-11 172 287 408 951 1,857

06-12 108 164 419 716

12-12 162 207 506

06-13 160 276

12-13 176

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 2.718 1.115 1.189 1.311 1.891 1.368 1.684 1.217 1.619 1.081 1.023 1.130 1.049 1.026 1.042 1.043 1.005 1.062 0.998 1.009 1.054 1.013 1.054

12-02 1.873 1.464 1.659 3.615 1.725 1.701 1.118 1.204 1.197 1.052 1.242 1.286 1.042 1.053 1.005 1.005 1.014 1.012 1.010 1.002 1.001 1.001

06-03 1.556 1.201 4.861 1.119 1.228 1.736 1.146 1.397 1.115 1.081 1.152 1.022 1.141 1.060 1.027 1.009 1.057 1.083 1.020 1.001 1.000

12-03 1.581 1.422 1.284 1.366 2.213 1.312 1.227 1.883 1.085 1.230 1.229 1.089 1.142 1.039 1.050 1.035 1.006 1.051 1.002 1.002

06-04 1.557 2.276 1.685 1.927 1.371 1.131 1.063 1.075 1.283 1.070 1.214 1.103 1.053 1.083 1.005 1.008 1.004 1.003 1.019

12-04 1.697 1.271 2.337 1.248 1.173 1.863 1.307 1.196 1.314 1.182 1.345 1.054 1.041 1.145 1.041 1.022 1.003 1.005

06-05 1.829 1.363 1.140 2.372 1.676 1.289 1.402 1.328 1.151 1.071 1.218 1.095 1.028 1.067 1.016 1.048 1.004

12-05 1.615 1.263 1.379 3.749 1.199 1.964 1.341 1.164 1.203 1.081 1.139 1.082 1.007 1.020 1.097 1.023

06-06 1.512 2.673 1.992 1.231 1.246 1.521 2.174 1.464 1.163 1.169 1.055 1.119 1.015 1.047 1.005

12-06 5.796 1.147 1.858 1.357 1.156 1.837 1.663 1.327 1.100 1.182 1.114 1.096 1.068 1.030

06-07 3.904 1.193 1.152 1.389 1.409 1.501 1.230 1.212 1.371 1.275 1.161 1.179 1.083

12-07 1.322 3.328 1.161 1.509 1.423 2.252 1.299 1.625 1.132 1.362 1.243 1.089

06-08 8.794 4.811 1.201 1.620 1.913 1.228 1.427 1.151 1.286 1.231 1.103

12-08 1.905 2.338 1.444 3.326 2.010 1.930 1.517 1.462 1.532 1.214

06-09 11.275 1.559 1.958 2.559 3.927 1.315 1.221 1.127 1.242

12-09 1.993 2.599 2.097 4.443 2.075 1.754 1.595 1.521

06-10 1.504 3.056 3.826 3.452 1.642 1.845 1.443

12-10 1.784 1.869 1.749 3.373 2.657 1.474

06-11 1.875 1.256 2.555 2.715 1.322

12-11 1.666 1.422 2.333 1.953

06-12 1.510 2.555 1.711

12-12 1.281 2.442

06-13 1.718

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 2.707 1.983 1.932 2.282 1.750 1.612 1.403 1.335 1.253 1.163 1.172 1.112 1.061 1.057 1.032 1.024 1.013 1.036 1.010 1.003 1.019 1.007 1.054

Latest 6 1.639 2.100 2.378 3.083 2.272 1.591 1.417 1.350 1.277 1.239 1.136 1.110 1.040 1.065 1.036 1.024 1.015 1.036 1.010 1.003 1.019 1.007 1.054

Latest 4 1.544 1.919 2.087 2.873 1.924 1.597 1.444 1.315 1.298 1.271 1.155 1.121 1.043 1.041 1.040 1.025 1.004 1.036 1.013 1.003 1.019 1.007 1.054

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 2.367 1.885 1.819 2.226 1.657 1.603 1.375 1.314 1.238 1.156 1.170 1.104 1.058 1.051 1.027 1.023 1.007 1.033 1.010 1.002 1.001 1.007 1.054

Latest 8x1 1.676 2.075 2.067 2.897 1.953 1.637 1.419 1.356 1.233 1.192 1.163 1.097 1.048 1.055 1.024 1.023 1.007 1.033 1.010 1.002 1.001 1.007 1.054

Latest 6x1 1.670 2.072 2.184 3.025 2.096 1.597 1.422 1.336 1.258 1.225 1.129 1.100 1.038 1.057 1.028 1.022 1.007 1.033 1.010 1.002 1.001 1.007 1.054

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 2.130 1.637 1.698 1.874 1.602 1.574 1.377 1.321 1.235 1.165 1.172 1.112 1.057 1.057 1.030 1.024 1.012 1.031 1.010 1.003 1.015 1.006 1.054

Latest 6 1.599 1.948 2.244 2.838 2.112 1.562 1.420 1.364 1.253 1.234 1.139 1.107 1.044 1.064 1.034 1.025 1.013 1.031 1.010 1.003 1.015 1.006 1.054

Latest 4 1.549 1.889 2.060 2.671 1.859 1.596 1.446 1.334 1.299 1.269 1.155 1.114 1.048 1.041 1.038 1.026 1.004 1.032 1.013 1.003 1.015 1.006 1.054


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.676 2.075 2.067 2.897 1.953 1.637 1.419 1.356 1.233 1.192 1.163 1.097 1.048 1.055 1.024 1.023 1.007 1.010 1.010 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002 1.002

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 288.626 172.175 82.996 40.150 13.861 7.097 4.336 3.056 2.254 1.828 1.533 1.319 1.202 1.147 1.087 1.062 1.038 1.031 1.021 1.010 1.008 1.006 1.004 1.002

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UM_All -2013-12 Pd_G 11/4/2014 1:17 PM






06-02 73 103 121 127 168 175 183 159 170 167 148 146 142 141 139 138 136 135 134 132 132 132 132 132

12-02 95 86 106 126 169 178 175 181 166 154 137 138 135 133 131 128 126 126 124 124 124 121 120

06-03 82 115 102 112 173 166 166 156 144 141 128 124 121 122 125 118 117 113 113 112 111 112

12-03 77 91 99 133 173 194 176 152 138 137 124 119 118 114 115 108 108 106 105 102 102

06-04 84 84 94 116 182 183 159 148 140 119 109 108 103 105 103 99 99 97 96 95

12-04 93 103 105 137 178 165 154 155 146 142 133 135 135 133 133 135 134 133 132

06-05 99 119 130 148 185 154 145 151 147 144 133 132 129 125 125 122 120 120

12-05 106 122 141 149 176 179 171 161 149 135 137 132 122 121 113 110 107

06-06 83 85 80 107 176 180 155 140 135 127 113 104 100 95 92 92

12-06 108 105 115 144 214 241 218 203 186 163 153 144 138 134 129

06-07 114 120 114 137 191 198 187 174 155 137 130 131 123 118

12-07 105 107 121 150 248 253 236 209 180 174 167 150 144

06-08 51 84 96 110 218 216 202 188 177 169 157 142

12-08 75 91 96 144 265 253 204 203 183 167 154

06-09 56 74 93 117 243 205 213 183 157 134

12-09 53 99 109 149 284 314 272 259 228

06-10 50 52 83 111 309 311 265 234

12-10 64 100 114 152 352 328 283

06-11 54 86 101 127 253 245

12-11 96 121 137 176 299

06-12 77 87 111 138

12-12 97 113 140

06-13 102 147

12-13 121

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.411 1.175 1.050 1.323 1.042 1.046 0.869 1.069 0.982 0.886 0.986 0.973 0.993 0.986 0.993 0.986 0.993 0.993 0.985 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

12-02 0.905 1.233 1.189 1.341 1.053 0.983 1.034 0.917 0.927 0.891 1.007 0.978 0.985 0.985 0.977 0.984 1.000 0.984 1.000 1.000 0.976 0.992

06-03 1.402 0.888 1.098 1.544 0.960 1.000 0.940 0.922 0.977 0.910 0.969 0.976 1.008 1.025 0.944 0.992 0.966 1.000 0.991 0.991 1.009

12-03 1.179 1.091 1.343 1.301 1.118 0.910 0.864 0.908 0.993 0.905 0.960 0.992 0.966 1.009 0.939 1.000 0.981 0.991 0.971 1.000

06-04 1.006 1.119 1.234 1.566 1.007 0.869 0.931 0.946 0.850 0.916 0.991 0.954 1.019 0.981 0.961 1.000 0.980 0.990 0.990

12-04 1.105 1.022 1.296 1.302 0.927 0.933 1.007 0.942 0.973 0.936 1.015 1.000 0.985 1.000 1.015 0.993 0.993 0.992

06-05 1.197 1.093 1.135 1.250 0.836 0.938 1.041 0.973 0.980 0.923 0.992 0.977 0.969 1.000 0.976 0.984 1.000

12-05 1.151 1.156 1.056 1.181 1.015 0.958 0.942 0.925 0.906 1.015 0.964 0.924 0.992 0.934 0.973 0.973

06-06 1.024 0.941 1.338 1.645 1.023 0.861 0.903 0.964 0.941 0.890 0.920 0.962 0.950 0.968 1.000

12-06 0.971 1.094 1.254 1.486 1.126 0.905 0.931 0.916 0.876 0.939 0.941 0.958 0.971 0.963

06-07 1.056 0.948 1.202 1.394 1.037 0.944 0.930 0.891 0.884 0.949 1.008 0.939 0.959

12-07 1.017 1.131 1.240 1.653 1.020 0.933 0.886 0.861 0.967 0.960 0.898 0.960

06-08 1.647 1.143 1.146 1.982 0.991 0.935 0.931 0.941 0.955 0.929 0.904

12-08 1.213 1.055 1.500 1.840 0.955 0.806 0.995 0.901 0.913 0.922

06-09 1.321 1.257 1.258 2.077 0.844 1.039 0.859 0.858 0.854

12-09 1.868 1.101 1.367 1.906 1.106 0.866 0.952 0.880

06-10 1.040 1.596 1.337 2.784 1.006 0.852 0.883

12-10 1.563 1.140 1.333 2.316 0.932 0.863

06-11 1.593 1.174 1.257 1.992 0.968

12-11 1.260 1.132 1.285 1.699

06-12 1.130 1.276 1.243

12-12 1.165 1.239

06-13 1.441

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.246 1.137 1.246 1.679 0.998 0.924 0.935 0.926 0.932 0.927 0.966 0.966 0.982 0.985 0.975 0.989 0.987 0.992 0.987 0.998 0.995 0.996 1.000

Latest 6 1.359 1.260 1.304 2.129 0.968 0.894 0.918 0.889 0.908 0.931 0.939 0.953 0.971 0.974 0.977 0.990 0.987 0.992 0.987 0.998 0.995 0.996 1.000

Latest 4 1.249 1.205 1.280 2.198 1.003 0.905 0.922 0.895 0.922 0.940 0.938 0.955 0.968 0.966 0.991 0.987 0.988 0.993 0.988 0.998 0.995 0.996 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.233 1.126 1.243 1.645 1.000 0.924 0.933 0.921 0.933 0.923 0.968 0.967 0.981 0.986 0.975 0.990 0.989 0.991 0.989 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.359 1.203 1.306 2.019 0.979 0.899 0.919 0.899 0.912 0.937 0.955 0.958 0.974 0.987 0.972 0.990 0.989 0.991 0.989 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.357 1.207 1.303 2.073 0.965 0.879 0.913 0.883 0.907 0.935 0.932 0.955 0.971 0.978 0.978 0.992 0.988 0.991 0.989 1.000 1.000 0.996 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.211 1.122 1.238 1.668 0.995 0.916 0.931 0.922 0.931 0.927 0.964 0.966 0.982 0.985 0.976 0.989 0.988 0.992 0.988 0.998 0.995 0.996 1.000

Latest 6 1.335 1.227 1.302 2.091 0.971 0.884 0.917 0.888 0.909 0.933 0.937 0.953 0.972 0.975 0.978 0.990 0.987 0.992 0.988 0.998 0.995 0.996 1.000

Latest 4 1.258 1.201 1.281 2.143 1.000 0.892 0.921 0.894 0.924 0.940 0.934 0.955 0.969 0.966 0.991 0.987 0.989 0.993 0.989 0.998 0.995 0.996 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

GISA 2013-12 1.336 1.183 1.290 1.933 1.014 0.935 0.941 0.929 0.945 0.948 0.963 0.970 0.982 0.987 0.980 0.988 0.997 0.993 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 1.359 1.203 1.306 2.019 1.000 0.924 0.933 0.921 0.933 0.937 0.968 0.967 0.981 0.987 0.975 0.990 0.989 0.991 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

GISA 2013-12 2.514 1.882 1.591 1.233 0.638 0.629 0.673 0.715 0.770 0.815 0.860 0.893 0.921 0.938 0.950 0.969 0.981 0.984 0.991 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

KPMG 2013-12 2.535 1.866 1.551 1.187 0.588 0.588 0.636 0.682 0.741 0.794 0.847 0.875 0.905 0.923 0.935 0.959 0.970 0.980 0.989 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UM_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:17 PM

IBC-ONTARIO-PPA Segment XIII





06-02 39 54 58 63 72 82 91 96 104 118 122 124 126 128 129 128 130 132 132 131 131 132 132 132

12-02 29 33 36 45 56 63 72 78 86 89 92 100 107 111 113 114 114 115 115 116 116 116 117

06-03 33 50 50 53 61 67 76 79 81 88 93 97 98 101 103 105 106 107 108 109 109 109

12-03 26 33 41 49 56 65 68 70 73 77 78 84 90 92 95 95 96 96 96 96 96

06-04 24 33 37 41 51 58 60 61 67 70 73 76 79 81 83 84 85 85 85 86

12-04 37 51 55 62 65 69 73 78 83 89 93 105 110 114 117 121 121 121 122

06-05 31 41 48 55 63 66 70 78 88 95 99 104 107 109 111 111 112 112

12-05 27 31 39 41 49 53 59 62 68 73 78 82 88 89 91 92 92

06-06 10 19 25 32 36 44 47 54 60 65 67 71 75 76 78 78

12-06 15 22 32 37 47 56 62 69 84 89 95 99 104 109 113

06-07 24 36 39 44 51 58 63 69 77 82 85 89 95 99

12-07 28 35 41 46 50 59 69 74 81 87 96 102 107

06-08 23 27 33 38 45 54 62 72 74 80 90 95

12-08 16 21 23 27 35 43 51 68 72 78 86

06-09 2 9 13 19 22 32 37 45 51 60

12-09 6 13 18 26 36 47 58 67 74

06-10 6 9 12 15 24 33 42 56

12-10 11 16 19 23 30 37 49

06-11 8 20 21 22 28 33

12-11 20 27 32 36 42

06-12 16 22 26 28

12-12 19 25 32

06-13 24 35

12-13 21

Age-to-Age Factors


06-02 1.385 1.074 1.086 1.143 1.139 1.110 1.055 1.083 1.135 1.034 1.016 1.016 1.016 1.008 0.992 1.016 1.015 1.000 0.992 1.000 1.008 1.000 1.000

12-02 1.138 1.091 1.250 1.244 1.125 1.143 1.083 1.103 1.035 1.034 1.087 1.070 1.037 1.018 1.009 1.000 1.009 1.000 1.009 1.000 1.000 1.009

06-03 1.515 1.000 1.062 1.151 1.098 1.134 1.039 1.025 1.086 1.057 1.043 1.010 1.031 1.020 1.019 1.010 1.009 1.009 1.009 1.000 1.000

12-03 1.258 1.257 1.195 1.143 1.160 1.046 1.029 1.043 1.055 1.013 1.077 1.071 1.022 1.033 1.000 1.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

06-04 1.358 1.129 1.109 1.245 1.138 1.035 1.017 1.099 1.045 1.043 1.041 1.040 1.025 1.025 1.012 1.012 1.000 1.000 1.012

12-04 1.364 1.081 1.128 1.049 1.062 1.058 1.069 1.064 1.073 1.045 1.129 1.048 1.036 1.026 1.034 1.000 1.000 1.008

06-05 1.305 1.172 1.147 1.147 1.048 1.061 1.115 1.129 1.080 1.042 1.051 1.029 1.019 1.018 1.000 1.009 1.000

12-05 1.148 1.258 1.051 1.195 1.082 1.113 1.051 1.097 1.074 1.068 1.051 1.073 1.011 1.022 1.011 1.000

06-06 1.900 1.316 1.280 1.125 1.222 1.068 1.149 1.111 1.083 1.031 1.060 1.056 1.013 1.026 1.000

12-06 1.467 1.455 1.156 1.270 1.191 1.107 1.113 1.217 1.060 1.067 1.042 1.051 1.048 1.037

06-07 1.500 1.083 1.128 1.159 1.137 1.086 1.095 1.116 1.065 1.037 1.047 1.067 1.042

12-07 1.250 1.171 1.122 1.087 1.180 1.169 1.072 1.095 1.074 1.103 1.063 1.049

06-08 1.174 1.222 1.152 1.184 1.200 1.148 1.161 1.028 1.081 1.125 1.056

12-08 1.313 1.095 1.174 1.296 1.229 1.186 1.333 1.059 1.083 1.103

06-09 4.500 1.444 1.462 1.158 1.455 1.156 1.216 1.133 1.176

12-09 2.167 1.385 1.444 1.385 1.306 1.234 1.155 1.104

06-10 1.500 1.333 1.250 1.600 1.375 1.273 1.333

12-10 1.455 1.188 1.211 1.304 1.233 1.324

06-11 2.500 1.050 1.048 1.273 1.179

12-11 1.350 1.185 1.125 1.167

06-12 1.375 1.182 1.077

12-12 1.316 1.280

06-13 1.458

12-13

Averages

6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Simple Avg

All Yrs 1.595 1.202 1.174 1.216 1.187 1.136 1.123 1.094 1.080 1.057 1.059 1.048 1.027 1.023 1.009 1.007 1.005 1.003 1.004 1.000 1.003 1.004 1.000

Latest 6 1.576 1.203 1.192 1.314 1.296 1.220 1.212 1.089 1.090 1.078 1.053 1.054 1.028 1.026 1.010 1.007 1.003 1.003 1.004 1.000 1.003 1.004 1.000

Latest 4 1.375 1.174 1.115 1.336 1.273 1.247 1.260 1.081 1.104 1.092 1.052 1.056 1.029 1.026 1.011 1.005 1.000 1.004 1.007 1.000 1.003 1.004 1.000

Medial Avg

All Yrs x1 1.479 1.200 1.166 1.204 1.180 1.131 1.116 1.090 1.076 1.055 1.056 1.050 1.027 1.024 1.007 1.007 1.004 1.002 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000

Latest 8x1 1.551 1.259 1.213 1.268 1.254 1.194 1.179 1.103 1.077 1.070 1.054 1.052 1.026 1.025 1.009 1.007 1.004 1.002 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000

Latest 6x1 1.409 1.209 1.166 1.282 1.286 1.212 1.217 1.093 1.076 1.078 1.053 1.056 1.028 1.025 1.006 1.007 1.002 1.002 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000

Volume Wtd

All Yrs 1.393 1.166 1.149 1.188 1.162 1.125 1.110 1.092 1.079 1.057 1.058 1.047 1.028 1.023 1.009 1.007 1.005 1.003 1.004 1.000 1.003 1.004 1.000

Latest 6 1.480 1.193 1.172 1.291 1.286 1.215 1.197 1.086 1.084 1.079 1.053 1.053 1.029 1.026 1.010 1.007 1.003 1.003 1.004 1.000 1.003 1.004 1.000

Latest 4 1.380 1.181 1.112 1.292 1.271 1.248 1.255 1.075 1.097 1.092 1.052 1.055 1.030 1.026 1.013 1.005 1.000 1.005 1.007 1.000 1.003 1.004 1.000


6 - 12 12 - 18 18 - 24 24 - 30 30 - 36 36 - 42 42 - 48 48 - 54 54 - 60 60 - 66 66 - 72 72 - 78 78 - 84 84 - 90 90 - 96 96 - 102 102 - 108 108 - 114 114 - 120 120 - 126 126 - 132 132 - 138 138 - 144 To Ult

Age-to-Age

KPMG 2013-12 1.551 1.259 1.213 1.268 1.254 1.194 1.179 1.103 1.077 1.070 1.054 1.052 1.026 1.025 1.009 1.007 1.004 1.002 1.006 1.000 1.000 1.004 1.000 1.000

Cumulative

KPMG 2013-12 8.118 5.235 4.159 3.427 2.703 2.156 1.805 1.531 1.388 1.289 1.204 1.142 1.086 1.058 1.032 1.023 1.016 1.012 1.010 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.000 1.000

IBC - Audit Assist Triangles - PPA-UM_All -2013-12 Cnts 11/4/2014 1:17 PM

Independent Actuarial Analysis as of December 31, 2013 for Ontario Private Passenger Automobile

© 2014 KPMG LLP, a Canadian limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International.


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9 APPENDIX C – SURVEY 1. In September 2010, the Government of Ontario introduced major reforms to the Ontario automobile

insurance system with the intent to control insurance costs, increase choices available to consumers, and simplify processes in the automobile insurance system. How have you or your members been affected by the auto insurance reforms that were introduced in September 2010? Would it be possible to provide a qualitative assessment?

2. Have you analysed the impact of the 2010 auto insurance reforms on your members? If so, would you be prepared to discuss your findings? Would it be possible to provide the results of such quantification?

In November 2012, the Automobile Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force issued its final report about costs of fraud and recommendations. Its recommendations involved multiple stakeholders such as the Government, the Financial Services Commission of Ontario, insurers, health regulatory colleges, Law Society of Upper Canada, Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, Ontario Health Insurance Plan and Canada Revenue Agency. The 38 recommendations are classified under four headers:

― Prevention; ― Detection; ― Investigation and Enforcement; and ― Regulatory Roles and Responsibilities.

3. Have the recommendations made by the Anti-Fraud Task Force in November 2012 and the actions that the Government and industry have taken since then affected you or your members? Would it be possible to provide a qualitative assessment?

4. Have you quantified the impact of these anti-fraud measures on your members? If so, would you be prepared to discuss your findings? Would it be possible to provide the results of such quantification?

5. Have you or your members implemented a program to combat auto insurance fraud? If so could you please provide a short description of the program?

In February 2014, Justice Douglas Cunningham released his final report and “recommendations regarding systemic causes of and solutions to the mediation backlog, potential changes to current structure, delivery model and process, the addition of a dispute prevention process for the system and other issues related to the viability of the DRS”. The 28 recommendations are centered on seven principles with respect to dispute resolution system (i.e., timeliness, proportionality, accessibility, predictability, streamlining, costs and culture).

6. How have you or your members been affected by the Ontario automobile Dispute Resolution System? Would it be possible to provide a qualitative assessment?

7. Have you analysed the impact of the Ontario automobile Dispute Resolution System on your members? If so, would you be prepared to discuss your findings? Would it be possible to provide the results of such quantification?


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8. How will you or your members be affected by the recommendations in Justice Cunningham report? Would it be possible to provide a qualitative assessment?

9. As part of the 2013 Ontario Budget, Government initiated the Auto Insurance Cost and Rate Reduction Strategy. The key elements of the Strategy pertain to anti-fraud measures, an average automobile insurance rate reduction target of 15%, licensing of health care providers in the automobile insurance system, transformation of the automobile insurance Dispute Resolution System and creation of a transparency and accountability mechanism in the form of an independent annual report by outside experts on the impact of auto insurance reforms introduced to date on both costs and premiums”. What steps have you or your members already taken to reduce costs that would affect the automobile insurance product?

10. What are you or your members planning to do by mid-2015 to reduce costs that would affect the automobile insurance product?

11. Could you identify any issues that would prevent you or your members from reducing costs that would affect the automobile insurance product?

12. Are there any further actions that the Government can implement to help you or your members to reduce costs that would affect the automobile insurance product?

13. Are there any further actions that the other stakeholders can implement to help you or your members to reduce costs that would affect the automobile insurance product?

Miscellanea:

14. What uncertainties in the Ontario automobile insurance system are affecting you or your members?

15. What issues do you or your members see as contributing to the uncertainty in the Ontario automobile insurance system?

16. Have you analysed the impact of the uncertainties in the Ontario automobile insurance system on your members? If so, would you be prepared to discuss your findings? Would it be possible to provide the results of such quantification?

17. Do you have any insight as to how these issues may be mitigated? Could you identify any action steps that could be taken to alleviate the uncertainty in the Ontario automobile insurance system?

18. Do you believe that the auto insurance marketplace in Ontario is sufficiently competitive and efficient in providing affordable premiums to consumers?

19. Have you or your members been affected by the following recent appeal decisions:

a. Scarlett v. Belair? b. Pastore v. Aviva? c. Henry v. Gore Mutual?

If so, would you be able to provide a quantitative or qualitative assessment of how you or your members have been affected?


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20. Do you have any other comments?

21. Does your organization wish to remain anonymous in the 2014 Report as described in our cover letter?


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10 APPENDIX D – SUMMARY OF 2014 ANNUAL REPORT SURVEY

Section 4 discusses the approach followed in collecting qualitative and quantitative information from a representative sample of stakeholders in the Ontario automobile insurance system. The Interim Report Survey was directed exclusively at insurers who provide PPA insurance in Ontario and the automobile insurance residual markets (Ontario Risk Sharing Pool and Ontario Facility Association). As described in the Interim Report and decided in consultation with the MOF, the 2014 Annual Report Survey gathered information from other stakeholders (i.e., insurers and the insurance residual markets were not asked to participate in the second survey).

We distributed the survey, along with an offer to participate in an interview, to twenty-two stakeholders91. Table 4.1 presented in Section 4.3 shows the complete listing of Representative Stakeholders who were invited to participate in the survey. Appendix C includes a copy of the 2014 Annual Report Survey sent to the Representative Stakeholders.

Thirteen organizations provided information either by submitting a written response or by meeting with us (in person or by telephone) to discuss their views on the effect of the Reforms and the Strategy on the Ontario PPA insurance claim costs and rates. Some of the responses received address topics broader than the focus of this report and do not specifically address PPA insurance claim costs and rates. As many of these responses contain suggestions on how to improve the PPA insurance system in general, we summarize these comments in this appendix. However, these recommendations are generally not carried forward to the recommendations in Section 6 on potential further actions to be taken by the Government and other stakeholders to achieve a 15% average rate reduction target for PPA in 2015.

The following organizations responded to the 2014 Annual Report Survey. Where available, we include a link to each organization’s website:

1. The Advocates’ Society (www.advocates.ca) 2. Association of Independent Assessment Centres (AIAC) (www.assessmentcentres.ca) 3. Consumer Representative from the Auto Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force92 (Anti-Fraud Task

Force Consumer Representative) 4. Canadian Independent Adjusters’ Association (CIAA) (www.ciaa-adjusters.ca) 5. Coalition of Health Professional Associations in Ontario Automobile Insurance Services

(Coalition) 6. Fair Association of Victims for Accident Insurance Reform (FAIR) (www.fairassociation.ca) 7. Insurance Brokers Association of Ontario (IBAO) (www.ibao.org) 8. Ontario Federation of Independent Towers (OFIT) (www.ofit.ca) 9. Ontario Insurance Adjusters Association (OIAA) (www.oiaa.com) 10. Ontario Psychological Association (OPA) (www.psych.on.ca) 11. Ontario Rehab Alliance (ORA) (www.ontariorehaballiance.com) 12. Ontario Trial Lawyers Association (OTLA) (www.otla.com)

91 The twenty-two stakeholders were selected in consultation with the MOF to represent a variety of parties and interests.

92 The Auto Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force ceased to exist upon submission of their final report in November 2012.

http://www.advocates.ca/

http://www.assessmentcentres.ca/

http://www.ciaa-adjusters.ca/

http://www.fairassociation.ca/

http://www.ibao.org/

http://www.ofit.ca/

http://www.oiaa.com/

http://www.psych.on.ca/

http://www.ontariorehaballiance.com/

http://www.otla.com/


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13. Provincial Towing Association (Ontario) Inc. (PTAO) (www.ptao.org)

We would like thank all of these organizations for taking the time to respond to the 2014 Annual Report Survey.

Similar to the Interim Report Survey, respondents who participated in the 2014 Annual Report Survey could elect to remain anonymous (i.e., not be named in this report). However, all respondents to the 2014 Annual Report Survey indicated that they do not require anonymity.

This appendix documents the aggregated results of the survey and the interviews without any analysis or conclusions by KPMG. The goal is to capture and demonstrate the range of comments received from the respondents. For ease of reference we tie the summarized responses back to the survey questions. We have identified some comments from respondents to the two surveys where we would like to follow-up for more context and analysis. As appropriate, we will follow-up as part of our approach to the 2015 Annual Report.

We note that comments received from the respondents often reference the most recent SABS93, which became effective on September 1, 2010. To assist readers in getting a better understanding of these comments, Appendix E provides a summary of the SABS.

10.1 Impact of the Reforms

Similar to the Interim Report, we assess the impact of the Reforms to date from several different perspectives. Appendix B contains an actuarial analysis that summarizes the changes observed over time in some of the key statistics derived based on GISA data. This appendix presents the views, gathered through the survey process, from Representative Stakeholders.

10.1.1 Qualitative Impact of the Reforms

Question 1 of the 2014 Annual Report Survey asked respondents to provide a qualitative assessment of how each of their organizations and/or members of their organizations have been affected by the Reforms. We summarize the comments received under the following headings:

― Impact on General Consumers; ― Impact on Claimants Treated under the Minor Injury Guideline (MIG); ― Impact on Claimants who are Seriously Injured but not Catastrophically Impaired; ― Impact on Claimants who are Catastrophically Impaired; ― Impact of $2,000 Cap on Fees for Assessments and Examinations; ― Impact on Independent Medical Examiners; ― Impact on Healthcare Practitioners; and

93 Under Ontario’s Insurance Act, benefits provided under Ontario’s standard automobile insurance policy for insured individuals who are injured in a motor vehicle accident are defined by a regulation titled SABS, regardless of who is at fault. The latest revision to the SABS had an effective date of September 1, 2010. For more information refer to “Ontario Regulation 34/10, Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule - effective September 1, 2010”. http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/regs/english/elaws_regs_100034_e.htm. Accessed October 7, 2014.

http://www.ptao.org/




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― Other Qualitative Impacts.

10.1.1.1 Impact on General Consumers

In Ontario, the law requires all drivers to be protected against financial loss through insurance. The basic principle of insurance is that the premiums paid by the many are used to pay for the claims of the few. A majority of drivers are not involved in MVAs in a particular year. As a result, most drivers do not make claims against their automobile insurance coverage. For these drivers, a significant impact of the Reforms has been an increased responsibility to understand the mandatory insurance coverage and to determine which and what level of optional benefits coverages to purchase94, if any.

This increased responsibility triggers a need for better consumer information. However, numerous respondents suggested that many consumers are not aware of the post-Reforms changes in coverage options. Furthermore, respondents believe that most consumers do not have an understanding of the treatment required (and the related costs) to recover from injuries sustained in an MVA; therefore, even those consumers who are aware that optional benefits are available are not knowledgeable enough to decide whether the mandatory automobile insurance coverage is sufficient in the event of an accident or to decide on the appropriate level of optional coverage.

Although IBAO noted that brokers have been integral in educating consumers about the post-Reforms optional coverages, other respondents suggested that significant deficiencies still exist in consumer education, and that these deficiencies have resulted in errors and omissions claims or lawsuits being brought by claimants against insurers and brokers for not adequately informing consumers of the available options. These respondents noted that consumers are often unaware of the level of coverage that they have purchased until they need access to the coverage as a result of being injured in an MVA. Some respondents suggested that the responsibility to educate consumers about the available options should not rest solely with insurers and brokers.

IBAO suggested that the Reforms accomplished their goal of stabilizing rates and preventing premiums from increasing further. Other respondents, such as the Anti-Fraud Task Force Consumer Representative, were disappointed that “consumers have yet to benefit from rate reductions.”

10.1.1.2 Impact on Claimants Treated under the Minor Injury Guideline (MIG)

The Reforms introduced the MIG95. In the opinion of some respondents, the MIG provides for adequate funding for the treatment of some minor injuries. However, many respondents noted that in their view the $3,500 limit is inadequate for injuries that become chronic or resistant to short-term treatment. Respondents also noted $3,500 is often not sufficient to provide for the necessary treatment to

94 The Reforms reduced the benefits available from the mandatory automobile insurance coverages. At the same time, a wider range of optional automobile insurance coverages were introduced. 95 MIG is a temporary measure until the release of a minor injury treatment protocol. According to the Minor Injury Treatment Protocol – Activity Updates published on FSCO’s website, “the completion date for all deliverables has been extended to December 31, 2014.” https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/Pages/activity-update.aspx. Accessed on October 25, 2014.

https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/Pages/activity-update.aspx


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claimants with long term injuries that technically fall within the MIG96. A knock-on effect is that as a result of not receiving the necessary treatment, some of these claimants are unable to return to gainful employment. According to a few respondents, even in circumstances where insurers agree that a claimant requires more treatment in order to return to employment, insurers often will not pay more than the $3,500 mandated under the MIG.

Some respondents stated that claimants find claim forms complicated to fill out; and that the recent changes to legislation have made it even more difficult. OTLA stated that the scope of injuries covered by the MIG needs to be refined. Otherwise there is an increased reliance on legal advice even for minor injuries.

OPA noted that the MIG introduced a fundamental shift in the model of adjudicating accident benefits, and that, as a result of the Reforms, claimants with brain injuries and mental health disorders97 face additional delays and barriers in their ability to access treatment due to the MIG. OPA observed that for claimants whose physical injuries fall under the MIG, psychological assessment and treatment are typically denied. OPA and the Coalition further commented that when claimants who require psychological treatment have their claim denied, they give up seeking psychological services, which often leads to prolonged disorders and further reduction in function.

In responding to survey questions related to their organization’s qualitative assessment of the impact of the Reforms, OPA suggested several strategies that they feel would improve access to services for claimants with mental health disorders:

― Acknowledge that mental health disorders are not “minor injuries”;

― Improve education98 regarding the nature of mental health disorders, with the aim of reducing discrimination and reconsidering the continued narrow focus on severity of physical injury as a proxy for mental injury;

― Create standards for proper adjudication, including consideration of the relevant evidence-based guidelines regarding assessment and treatment of mental health disorders when making decisions; and

― Require insurers’ examiners to have appropriate training and expertise; to utilize professional peer reviewers whenever appropriate; and to use psychologists to comprehensively assess a diagnosis of mental health disorders and comment on reasonable and necessary treatment, as well as the resultant disability.

10.1.1.3 Impact on Claimants who are Seriously Injured but not Catastrophically Impaired

With the Reforms, the standard limit on the mandatory medical and rehabilitation benefits coverage for non-catastrophic injuries was reduced from $100,000 to $50,000. Several respondents noted that

96 According to the MIG published in February 2014 by FSCO, subject to exceptions related to pre-existing conditions (described in Section 4 of the MIG), “an injured person’s impairment comes within this Guideline if the impairment is predominantly a minor injury.” 97 We are not certain if this comment from OPA is referencing pre-existing conditions. 98 We are not certain if the education is targeted to a specific group or to the public in general.


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this reduction in benefits, along with the elimination of housekeeping expenses and caregiver benefits in non-catastrophic cases, have reduced AB claim costs in general, and also reduced the number of fraudulent claims. However, some respondents also indicated that the reduced limit of $50,000 on medical and rehabilitation benefits is resulting in a shortage of funds for claimants who are seriously injured, but non-catastrophically impaired. They argue that claimants do not have adequate coverage for medical expenses and treatment before their rehabilitation is complete. As such, many claimants do not receive the treatment and medical assistance that they require.

In addition, a number of respondents suggested that some claimants whose injuries are originally deemed non-catastrophic are later reassessed and ultimately classified as catastrophically impaired. However, the timing of this reassessment may result in coverage for costs that are in excess of the $50,000 benefits limit being temporarily denied by the insurer. According to respondents, this situation can lead to barriers in accessing the required health services, missed opportunities for rehabilitation and increased long-term costs.

OPA noted that the reduction in mandatory medical and rehabilitation benefits coverage for non-catastrophic injuries from $100,000 to $50,000 is actually even greater than the perceived reduction of $50,000. This is due to the fact that medical assessments and examination costs are now included in the medical and rehabilitation benefits limit. Prior to the Reforms, medical assessment and examination costs were paid in addition to the $100,000 limit on medical and rehabilitation benefits for non-catastrophic impairments.

10.1.1.4 Impact on Claimants who are Catastrophically Impaired

According to Ontario Regulation 34/10 Statutory Accident Benefit Schedule – Effective September 1, 2010 (SABS), “an assessment or examination in connection with a determination of catastrophic impairment shall be conducted only by a physician but the physician may be assisted by other regulated health professionals as he or she may reasonably require.” However, if the impairment is a brain impairment only, then the assessment or examination may be conducted by a neuropsychologist.

The Coalition is concerned with this change, which effectively precludes a psychologist or any other healthcare provider from conducting the assessment unless the impairment is a brain impairment only. This was noted as becoming a barrier to catastrophic applications for patients with mental health disorders. OPA adds that psychologists are fully equipped to conduct assessments and provide a diagnosis of a mental health disorder. OPA further suggests that transaction costs could be reduced by reinstating psychologists as professionals who can conduct assessments and examinations to certify applications for catastrophic impairment due to mental health disorders.

10.1.1.5 Impact of $2,000 Cap on Fees for Assessments and Examinations

Section 25 (5) (a) of the SABS establishes a maximum amount (cap) of $2,000 that insurers are liable to pay health professionals for conducting any one assessment or examination (including all associated costs, such as the cost of preparing a report). Respondents noted that the majority of healthcare assessments can be conducted within the $2,000 cap. However, some of the respondents pointed out that the cap limits the supply of qualified experienced assessors for some claimants, such as those in rural areas where significant expenses are required to reimburse for the travel cost of


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physicians; or for more rigorous and extensive assessments that require specialized expertise, such as those assessments performed on children.

Moreover, it was noted by AIAC that “many qualified catastrophic assessors will not complete these assessments because the time they require for extensive documentation review and prolonged assessment procedures (mandated by the AMA [American Medical Association] Guides and thus the SABS), is not appropriately compensated within the $2,000 limit.” It is AIAC’s opinion that exceptions to the $2,000 cap are necessary to ensure an adequate supply of health professionals qualified to perform these services. Similarly, as a result of the introduction of this $2,000 cap, ORA commented that many experienced practitioners find it uneconomical to offer their services to the insurance system. Consequently, the OPA noted that this has led to the use of less experienced providers, and more limited assessments and reports, which do not necessarily follow best practices and professional standards. Some respondents noted that the use of less experienced providers has led to more disputes and increased costs to the system.

A few respondents also commented that a reasonable benchmark for the total cost of assessments is not known and needs to be established. Finally, OPA noted that there are instances where the capping guideline99 is misapplied by insurers, leading to delays in a claimant’s ability to have access to appropriate assessments and treatment.

10.1.1.6 Impact on Independent Medical Examiners

In their response to our survey, AIAC noted that their member companies are accredited and certified by either the Commission on Accreditation of Rehabilitation Facilities (CARF) and/or the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). AIAC also stated that their members’ expertise includes many years spent developing assessment protocols and report formats with the goals of ensuring accountability in the system. Their members’ checks and balances for accountability are: a competitive marketplace; public exposure of their decisions; and regular insurer audits of their policies, procedures and assessment reports.

AIAC observed that in order to remain profitable, less qualified or experienced professionals or practitioners are in some instances retained by assessment centres (who are not members of AIAC) to perform the assessments. This can lead to assessment reports that are of lower quality. Some of the respondents commented that setting delivery standards for third-party medical examinations may reduce friction, legal costs and dispute resolution cases.

With the removal of mandatory insurer examinations, insurers now have a responsibility to provide medical reasons for denial of care. A few respondents commented that medical opinions or sufficient rationale are often not provided regarding denial of claims. These respondents viewed this is as a barrier to claimants’ access to care.

In addition, respondents commented that these assessments are often performed on an arbitrary basis and are not always reviewed by peers. Respondents noted that peer reviewed assessments aid in dispute resolution. FAIR echoed this point and was concerned about the potential lack of

99 FSCO, “Cost of Assessments and Examinations Guideline, Superintendent’s Guideline No. 09/10”, November 2010. https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2010/Documents/A-23_10-1.pdf. Accessed October 24, 2014.

https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2010/Documents/A-23_10-1.pdf


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independence between assessors and insurers. FAIR was also concerned about the quality of medical examinations.

10.1.1.7 Impact on Healthcare Practitioners

A few respondents anecdotally noted that healthcare practitioners have identified significant increases in the cost of providing care for patients injured in MVAs. These respondents noted that as a result, many practitioners are opting out of servicing these patients.

Beginning on December 1, 2014, FSCO will require healthcare services providers (i.e., those who submit forms through HCAI) to be licensed before they can invoice and receive direct payment from automobile insurers for specific services performed in connection with the SABS. The licensing procedure includes a one-time application fee, followed by annual regulatory fees as well as transaction fees (calculated based on the number of statutory accident benefits claimants). For more information see FSCO website100.

In connection with the new licensing requirements, the Advocates’ Society noted that the recurring fees (i.e., annual fees and transaction fees) charged to healthcare providers to provide services to MVA claimants may create a disincentive for sole practitioners or those who practise in a small clinic to participate in the system. The Advocates’ Society further commented that “under the current anti-fraud regime, licensing may be refused to a clinic on vague terms.” The Advocates’ Society’s opinion is that this may result in less access to treatment for claimants who reside in smaller or remote communities.

10.1.1.8 Other Qualitative Impacts

OFIT noted that many tow truck operators are in financial hardship. There are delays in the receipt of revenues by tow truck and vehicle storage operators due to the delays in claim settlements and the indefinite storage of vehicles while claims are being adjudicated.

OPA suggested that two changes from the Reforms, specifically – the removal of the funding for both rebuttal assessments and for facilitating communication between insurer examination reviewers and treatment plan providers – have contributed to the delays in the claim assessment process and has increased disputes between claimants and insurer.

10.1.2 Quantitative Impact of the Reforms

The second group of questions in the 2014 Annual Report Survey asked respondents to provide feedback regarding any quantitative analyses they performed related to the impact of the Reforms on their members. None of the respondents were able or willing to provide such a quantitative analysis.

While the Coalition said that they had not performed their own quantitative analysis, they submitted the results of a survey completed by the Ontario Association of Social Workers in March 2014 as part

100 FSCO, “Apply now for a service provider licence”. https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/service-providers/Pages/apply-now.aspx. Accessed October 24, 2014.

https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/service-providers/Pages/apply-now.aspx

https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/service-providers/Pages/apply-now.aspx


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of their responses. This survey was designed to measure how the Reforms affected social workers’ practice as well as their clients. The survey results included the following findings:

― 67% of clients had reached the maximum of their medical/rehabilitation funding;

― 17% of clients were able to access publicly funded social work services;

― 9% of clients were able to access other publicly funded rehabilitation therapy101 services;

― 61% of clients had exhausted non-catastrophic funding before social work goals were met; and

― 56% of social workers were limiting the number of MVA clients in their case load due to the changes in medical/rehabilitation funding.

ORA also advised that they did not know the quantitative impact of the Reforms on their members. They further commented that a more important question to be answered is the quantification of the impact of the Reforms on the claimants. While recognizing that they did not have a complete answer to this, ORA surveyed their membership to gauge the recovery of their patients. Highlights of this survey are:

― Only 17% of the seriously injured but not catastrophically impaired MVA victims attain their rehabilitation goals with post-Reforms benefits compared with 57% of those injured prior to the Reforms.

― Only 50% of seriously injured but not catastrophically impaired MVA victims are able to return to half of their pre-accident roles and levels of function with post-Reforms benefits compared to 85% of those injured prior to Reforms.

― 26% of claimants who were treated under the MIG classification following the Reforms and received the initial $2,200 tranche, were later denied access to the balance of the $3,500 cap (i.e., the remaining $1,300) despite recommendations from their healthcare provider.102

10.2 Anti-Fraud Recommendations

Questions 3 through 5 of the 2014 Annual Report Survey focused on the recommendations from the November 2012 Anti-Fraud Task Force report. These questions asked respondents to comment on how the recommendations have affected their organization and their members. The questions also sought information on whether any of the respondents have implemented programs to combat automobile insurance fraud. We summarized the comments received under the following headings:

― Descriptions of Programs to Combat Automobile Insurance Fraud; ― Impact on Automobile Insurance Claim Costs and Rates; and ― Impact of Recommendations on Stakeholders.

101 Examples of “other publicly funded rehabilitation therapy” were not included in the response. 102 ORA did not provide examples of reasons for this denial.


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10.2.1 Descriptions of Programs to Combat Automobile Insurance Fraud

Some Representative Stakeholders who represent service providers to the PPA insurance system provided feedback on how their members are helping combat automobile insurance fraud.

According to the Advocates’ Society, many of their members, “particularly those who represent the defence bar in personal injury matters, play a role in helping to eliminate fraud claims (such as those for staged accidents, conflicts of interest, etc.). However, the Society’s members are concerned that the lawyer’s role following the identification of a fraudulent claim remains unclear. For example, it is not clear to whom an allegation of fraud should be reported, and what next steps a lawyer should take once fraud has been detected.”

With respect to programs to combat auto insurance fraud, the Coalition advised that:

― They have not implemented a formal program. However, they continue to disseminate fraud related information prepared by insurers and FSCO for the health professional associations.

― The Coalition’s member organizations regularly communicate to their members the importance of anti-fraud measures.

― Many of the regulatory colleges have also instituted awareness campaigns around auto insurance fraud and the need for members to be aware of the potential for identity theft related to their registration numbers.103

― Health professionals have participated in a pilot program of the Professional Credential Tracker (PCT)104 tool. The Coalition believes that this is a valuable program; however, they would like to see further development of the tool so as to enhance accountability.

Other respondent organizations reported that they also inform their members regarding anti-fraud measures. For example:

― IBAO issued screening guidelines to help broker members identify fraudulent activities.

― ORA promotes best business practices to their members. Recently, they published a “Licensing Implementation Kit” which includes “multiple tools and guidelines required to support licensing business operations requirements.”105

103 Specific examples of these awareness campaigns were not provided.

104 The PCT “is the first phase of a pilot project to help Ontario regulated health professionals stay informed of which clinics

or health facilities are using their information to submit auto insurance claims. This initiative is one of the recently-introduced measures recognized and endorsed by the Ontario Auto Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force in their Interim Report. It is being investigated by a Working Group chaired by the Financial Services Commission of Ontario.” www.aboutpct.ca/About-PCT/index.shtml. Accessed on October 4, 2014. 105 ORA, “Strengthening our members.” www.ontariorehaballiance.com/page/strengthening-members/. Accessed on

October 4, 2014.


http://www.ontariorehaballiance.com/page/strengthening-members/


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10.2.2 Impact on Automobile Insurance Claim Costs and Rates

The Advocates’ Society noted that from the plaintiffs' perspective, the Anti-Fraud Task Force measures have had no direct impact, and that “at least indirectly, the measures attack benefits coverage. In addition, there have been very few actual prosecutions for fraud in the auto insurance industry in Ontario.” The Advocates’ Society commented that the difficulty in implementing the Anti-Fraud Task Force recommendations may arise out of the fact that FSCO does not have jurisdiction over many potential fraudsters (e.g. clinics, auto shops). Furthermore, the Advocates’ Society suggested that actions taken to combat fraud should involve criminal authorities for more effective implementation, and that the criteria for the licensing of clinics should be clearer so as to allow for a more effective mechanism to monitor fraud at the clinic level.106

IBAO commented that the implementation of the Anti-Fraud Task Force’s recommendations has prevented costs and premiums from increasing to a level that is unsustainable. Consistent with this point, the OIAA stated that the current licensing of healthcare service providers and the proposed governance of towing and storage will help regulate these service providers and reduce instances of opportunistic fraud.107 OIAA noted that while there are a number of recommendations made by the Anti-Fraud Task Force that have yet to be implemented108, they believe that the recommendations should bring a more balanced system with enhanced consumer awareness and “less fraud”.

The Coalition commented that from a healthcare perspective, the best way to manage fraud is to focus on best practices and evidence-based health care. Professional healthcare associations provide guidance and support to ensure that their members are highly skilled and provide the care which is most effective for the patient with a focus of returning each patient back to independence. Healthcare regulatory colleges have also been active in ensuring that those members providing services within the healthcare system who are providing inappropriate or unnecessary treatment are appropriately evaluated and reprimanded if found to be negligent. The focus of healthcare providers has been on providing access to care that is cost effective, goal-oriented and time-limited.

10.2.3 Impact of Recommendations on Stakeholders

Various stakeholders provided input on the impact of the recommendations from the Anti-Fraud Task Force. Some of the changes that were made effective as of June 1, 2013 include109:

― Requiring insurers to provide claimants with all reasons for denying a claim;

106 As explained earlier, we note that effective December 1, 2014 all health service providers who bill automobile insurers

directly must be licenced by FSCO. 107 The Final Report of the Ontario Automobile Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force Steering Committee, dated October 14,

2012 defines opportunistic fraud as: “an individual pads the value of his or her auto insurance claims by claiming for benefits or other goods and services that are unnecessary or unrelated to the collision that caused the claim.” Accessed on October 5, 2014. www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/final-report.html. 108 The OIAA did not elaborate. 109 The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “2013 Ontario Budget Chapter IV: Tax, Pension and Financial

Services”, last modified May 2, 2013. Accessed on September 23, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html#ch4c_5.


http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html#ch4c_5


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― Giving claimants the right to receive a bi-monthly, detailed statement of benefits paid out on their behalf;

― Increasing the role of claimants in fraud prevention by requiring them to confirm attendance at a health clinic; and

― Making providers subject to sanctions for overcharging insurers for goods and services and banning them from asking consumers to sign blank claim forms.

While stakeholders generally applauded the changes enacted so far, they had various comments related to the changes. On the requirement that insurers provide claimants with all reasons for denying a claim, several respondents mentioned that there are instances when insurers have denied claims without providing all the medical reasons for denying the claims.

On the detailed statements that describe benefits paid out on claimants’ behalf, some stakeholders commented that their patients have not received any statements, or where statements are received, there is insufficient detail to understand the expenses.

In the following two sections we highlight impact of the anti-fraud recommendations on healthcare service providers and two truck operators.

10.2.3.1 Healthcare Service Providers

While none of the three questions related the Anti-Fraud Task Force in 2014 Annual Report Survey specifically mentioned the licensing of healthcare service providers, many respondents commented on this recommendation that has already been implemented by FSCO with an effective date of December 1, 2014. The following summarize the views of AIAC, FAIR, the Coalition, ORA and OPA.

AIAC does not believe that the service provider licensing model will provide the anticipated oversight and protection. They also believe that the licensing model will likely lead to increased costs while burdening small and medium enterprises, all with no impact on fraud reduction.

FAIR observed that the level of service may be affected with licensing and additional fees being levied on healthcare service providers. Two examples of these potential changes mentioned by FAIR include a reduction of the services available in rural areas and a decrease of highly specialized treatment providers due to the fact that those professionals might not be willing to pay the licensing fees if they treat victims of MVAs only on an occasional basis.

AIAC further noted that independent medical examination (IME) providers have worked with insurers to develop, implement and maintain standards for best practices, transparency and cost reduction. These include:

― Assessment facility costs that are contained by insurers who run competitive processes before selecting vendors (e.g., through the use of detailed fee schedules);

― Requirement by most insurers for IME companies to attest to ethical billing practices; ― Monitoring by HCAI, which currently tracks and provides required data regarding all providers’

billing practices; ― Requirement by insurers for IME companies to be accredited with various regulatory bodies; and ― Conduct by insurers of regular direct audit of IME companies.


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AIAC advised that their members have long been advocating for higher standards of practice within their sector, and while they supports the general concept of licensing, they believe that standards of practice are more important and will have more of a positive impact within the automobile insurance sector as a whole.

The Coalition believes in the importance of licensing for those service providers whose business practices are not already regulated by a health professional college. However, the Coalition questions the benefits of adding the costly burden of licensing for those service providers that are already regulated by a health professional college and incurring the related costs. They are also concerned that while the licensing system is intended to provide savings to the automobile insurance system as a whole through fraud reduction, the licensing system will also result in a shifting of some costs to the health professionals. As such, the main concern is that while healthcare professionals are being asked to absorb the additional costs triggered by the licensing process, there have been no increases in the professional fee guidelines over the last two years. This combination of increasing costs without allowing increases in professional service fees has had a significant financial impact on healthcare facilities, particularly for sole practitioners and smaller businesses.

ORA also noted that the new process, requiring all healthcare professionals providing services in the automobile insurance sector to be licensed, has had a major impact on healthcare providers. They estimate that the total direct and indirect costs of the licensing process represent a 5% to 10% reduction to an already slim profit margin. Direct costs are those related to the licensing fees and indirect costs are those related to internal oversight and risk management.

Although OPA is supportive of the licensing initiative and believes it will assist in eliminating fraudulent facilities from the system, they also believe that there should be exceptions as to who should be licensed. OPA also raised many of the concerns discussed above by the other respondents regarding the licensing program.

10.2.3.2 Tow Truck Operators

Both OFIT and PTAO are concerned that the reputation of the towing industry as a whole has been damaged as a result of the fraudulent activities of a few. OFIT believes that the Anti-Fraud Task Force recommendations do not take into consideration a key factor leading to insurance fraud: the decreased presence of police officers at accident scenes following the introduction of self-reporting through Collision Reporting Centres. An effect of this change is that relevant information related to the accident and/or access to potential witnesses may have been lost as a result of this change. OFIT’s opinion is that a diminished police presence has led to an increase in opportunistic and premeditated fraud as well as a shift in costs “as money saved on police budgets is clearly paid by the public in higher insurance premiums.”


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10.3 Dispute Resolution System (DRS)

In February 2014, Justice Douglas Cunningham released a report titled “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report” 110 (Justice Cunningham Report) including twenty-eight recommendations (Justice Cunningham’s Recommendations) for transforming the DRS. These recommendations were centered on seven principles – timeliness, proportionality, accessibility, predictability, streamlining, costs and culture. Questions 6 through 8 of the 2014 Annual Report Survey asked stakeholders to provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments of the current DRS, as well as a qualitative assessment of how Justice Cunningham’s Recommendations will affect their members. We summarize the comments received under the following headings:

― Qualitative Assessment of Impact of the Current DRS; ― Quantitative Assessment of Impact of the Current DRS; and ― Qualitative Assessment of DRS Report.

10.3.1 Qualitative Assessment of Impact of the Current DRS

Several stakeholders commented that with the mediation backlog having been successfully tackled, wait times for mediation are now much shorter. However, it appears that the backlog has shifted, as FSCO is now receiving an unprecedented number of arbitration applications. Furthermore, a number of respondents noted that the DRS is inefficient and costly, which is increasing costs and premiums.

Members of the Coalition noted that delays in the DRS have resulted in patients not receiving treatment on time and/or delays in payments to their clinics. Delays in the rehabilitation assessment process can often result in patients subsequently developing more chronic-related issues and secondary-related health issues111. As a result, the original treatment proposal is often no longer applicable. To better understand the issue, OPA asked to see any data that would help assess whether the elimination of the mediation backlog has led to a more timely mechanism to address disputes regarding treatment plans and whether any corresponding changes have been observed in the insurers’ patterns of responses to treatment plans.

OIAA commented that the mediation backlog had an impact on adjusters’ ability to effectively deal with claims in dispute due to the timeliness of when the mediations were conducted. To better manage the backlog, OIAA noted that insurers added resources to adjudicate claims at the peak of the backlog. With the backlog cleared, the additional resources have been redeployed, reduced, or terminated. As a result, OIAA noted that adjusters currently do not have the infrastructure to support the increasing number of cases in arbitration.

OPA noted that the current DRS requires patients with mental health disorders to provide evidence from a physician. In non-automobile insurance matters the court and the parties involved determine the appropriate experts to rely on, and a physician is not necessarily required. OPA commented that psychologists are one of only two professions authorized to diagnose a mental health disorder. OPA’s

110 Justice Douglas Cunningham, “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”. Accessed

on September 25, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html.

111 The respondent did not elaborate on examples of chronic issues and secondary health issues that may arise due to

delays in the rehabilitation assessment.



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opinion is that, in cases involving potential mental health disorders, the requirement to have a physician to adduce evidence adds a barrier to the patient’s treatment and unnecessary costs to the system.

10.3.2 Quantitative Assessment of Impact of the Current DRS

The second group of questions related to the DRS in the 2014 Annual Report Survey asked respondents to provide feedback regarding any quantitative analyses they performed related to the impact of the DRS in its current form on their members. None of the respondents were able or willing to provide such a quantitative analysis citing as a reason the lack of available data to perform such a review. However, a number of respondents commented that they would welcome the opportunity to obtain and review the data regarding the outcomes of disputes regarding treatment plans – such as human and economic costs associated with untreated injuries, including the cost of pain, risk of re-injury, and chronicity of conditions.

10.3.3 Qualitative Assessment of DRS Report

Appendix A112 of Justice Cunningham’s Report lists twenty-eight recommendations for transforming the DRS. As part of the 2014 Annual Report Survey, stakeholders were asked to comment on specific recommendations. Only recommendations that were commented on are discussed in this section.

10.3.3.1 DRS Established as a Public Sector Administrative Tribunal (Recommendation 1)

The Advocates’ Society noted that FSCO’s arbitrators have built up institutional knowledge and experience through the adjudication of thousands of claims reviewed under the current arbitration process. The Advocates’ Society is concerned that this knowledge and experience may be lost with the transfer of the dispute resolution process to a Public Sector Administrative Tribunal113.

10.3.3.2 Eliminate Option of Initiating a Court Proceeding Instead of Arbitration (Recommendation 9)

The Advocates’ Society noted that Bill 15, Fighting Fraud and Reducing Automobile Insurance Rates Act, 2014, “purports to remove the right to sue in court for accident benefits claims (proposed new Section 280).The removal of the right to sue poses a serious concern for both the plaintiff and defence bar.”

OIAA commented that removing the right to proceed to litigation will effectively eliminate the ability to rely on case law for interpretation of issues pertaining to claims. OIAA suggested that this may increase

112 Justice Douglas Cunningham, “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”, Accessed on September 25, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html#appA. 113 We understand from discussions with MOF that Bill 15 proposes that the DRS be moved to the License Appeal Tribunal.



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disputes as neither plaintiff nor defence counsel will have case law to rely upon. In the opinion of OIAA, this recommendation is likely “going to further tax the system.”114

10.3.3.3 Settlement of Future Medical and Rehabilitation Benefits Should be Prohibited until Two Years after the Date of Accident (Recommendation 17)

For claims that include future medical and rehabilitation benefits, OIAA stated that Recommendation 17 may have a negative impact on any settlement discussions that occur prior to the end of the two-year period, as it will be that much more difficult to come to a resolution of the issues without the ability to settle the whole claim.

10.3.3.4 Insurer Internal Review Process (Recommendations 19 – 21)

OIAA suggested that Justin Cunningham’s Recommendations calling for insurers to implement a formal internal review process will ensure continuity in file handling and decision making. They feel that “this review will ultimately form the basis of their defence if the file proceeds to arbitration or upon review, it may be determined that the denied benefit should in fact be paid which will eliminate the dispute all together.”

10.3.3.5 Arbitration Hearings Conducted as Paper Reviews for Cases under $10,000 (Recommendation 25)

The Advocates’ Society is concerned that requiring arbitration hearings to be conducted as paper reviews for cases under $10,000 could lead to overuse and even fraud, as claimants could simply split up related claims to ensure that each split up portion of the claims would fall under the $10,000 maximum for paper reviews.

While AIAC agrees with any process that will expedite the DRS, they suggested that it is contradictory to place more weight on the paper review process while at the same time restricting the length of reports and briefs. AIAC noted that restricting report length will have the following consequences:

― Decreased quality in assessment standards; ― Reports that do not include the rationalization of opinions; ― Reports that have less value to the DRS; and ― Reports that are less likely to resolve conflict because issues of objectivity, partisan views and

biases (perceived or real) will be more easily declared.

The Coalition commented that regulations have not been developed to enact Justice Cunningham’s Recommendation of a tiered process based on the amounts in dispute. Although the Coalition supports more timely and efficient access to dispute resolution, they are also concerned that the proposal may have the effect of limiting the insured person’s access to dispute resolution. OPA had similar concerns. The Coalition noted that “in consideration of dispute resolution, the severity of injury and focusing on acute needs and those with specialized needs such as children should be considered. It was suggested that a triage process be developed to review the disputes and identify claims that could be

114 OIAA did not further elaborate on this comment.


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assigned a higher priority (e.g., those where the specific treatment is time sensitive) and that should be expedited through the DRS. This may require assistance of a regulated health professional.”

ORA felt that a $10,000 threshold would limit access to in-person hearings only to catastrophic cases when many non-catastrophic cases include very severe injuries and needs, and these cases are sometimes eventually determined to be catastrophic.

10.4 Impact of the Strategy

In questions 9 through 13 of the 2014 Annual Report Survey, we asked stakeholders to comment on the Strategy’s average automobile insurance rate reduction target of 15%. The comments received are summarized under the following headings:

― Steps Taken to Reduce Costs; ― Planned Steps to Reduce Costs; ― Issues Preventing Stakeholders from Reducing Costs; ― Potential Actions by the Government; and ― Potential Actions by Other Stakeholders.

10.4.1 Steps Taken to Reduce Costs

IBAO suggested that brokers help facilitate consumers to receive lower rates by shopping amongst many insurers.

OPA noted that they continue to advocate early and appropriate psychological treatment to effectively reduce impairments, restore functionality, and reduce costs in the process. Psychologists have developed and updated their guidelines on evidence based assessment and treatment with the goal of providing assessments that are focused and treatments that are efficient yet effective. OPA also stated that psychologists are working with other healthcare providers to support the implementation of the health facility licensing system to assist in addressing any facilities engaged in fraudulent billing practices.

10.4.2 Planned Steps to Reduce Costs

Healthcare providers who are members of the Coalition plan to continue to work with FSCO, insurers and the MOF to support anti-fraud initiatives. The licensing of healthcare service providers is a major initiative that will require the ongoing attention of the Coalition. A potential full scale implementation of the PCT may help reduce fraud and associated costs. The Coalition indicated that they plan to be actively involved in participating and providing feedback to the MIG recommendations to be released in the fall of 2014115.

115 This is in reference to the “Minor Injury Treatment Protocol – Activity Updates” published on FSCO’s website, which states that “the completion date for all deliverables has been extended to December 31, 2014.” Accessed on October 25, 2014. https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/Pages/activity-update.aspx.



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Some healthcare professional associations have developed guidelines related to clinical assessments and insurer examinations. The Coalition will encourage all professional associations to do the same.

OFIT noted that tow truck operators plan to follow the recommendations of the Towing and Storage Advisory Groups, by applying to the College of Trades to recognize towing as a trade.116

According to OPA, psychologists are developing guidelines for examinations requested by insurers with the expectation that the guidelines will increase confidence in the insurers’ assessments and examinations system and reduce disputes. As noted by OPA, disputes lead to delays and additional costs in the system. OPA is also updating their assessment and treatment guidelines to provide direction to both psychologists and insurers regarding the application of evidence-based assessment and treatment practices within the automobile insurance context.

10.4.3 Issues Preventing Stakeholders from Reducing Costs

The Coalition commented that the administrative burden imposed on all healthcare professionals does not support cost reductions. In addition, inefficiencies in the PPA insurance system impact access to care, which sometimes leads to the prolonged duration of a claimant’s medical condition. This may increase costs if the claimant requires additional care.

The Coalition further commented that some healthcare professionals have to travel to patients’ homes in order to assess and treat these patients, and that travel costs and the general cost of doing business have been increasing. They also explained that if costs continue to rise, there might come a time where it will be difficult for members to provide services at similar rates, and there may be an accessibility issue for MVA victims when some healthcare professionals may stop providing their services.

OPA noted that for claimants who require treatment from psychologists, delays and stress resulting from denials of claims hamper the cost reduction initiative. OPA further added that psychological treatment is cost effective in that the treatment reduces impairment while restoring function, which reduces the utilization and costs of other healthcare services.

10.4.4 Potential Actions by the Government

Healthcare professionals from various associations who participated in the 2014 Annual Report Survey provided the following recommendations for potential actions to be considered by the Government to reduce costs in the PPA insurance system:

116 KPMG LLP on behalf of the Towing and Storage Advisory Group produced the report “Towing and Storage Advisory Group - Report and Recommendations to the Ministry of Consumer Services” dated March 12, 2014. One of the recommendations of the Towing Advisory Group was that an oversight model should set standards that must be met and adhered to by towers, operators and businesses. The Ontario College of Trades delivers education, qualifications, standards, registration, and compliance and enforcement functions for registered trades. Accessed October 4, 2013. www.ontariocanada.com/registry/view.do?postingId=15664.

http://www.ontariocanada.com/registry/view.do?postingId=15664


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― Reduce barriers117 to appropriate and necessary access to services for injured victims with both physical and mental health disorders;

― Acknowledge that mental health disorders do not fall under the MIG;

― Note that the severity of physical injuries is not a proxy for the severity of mental injury;

― Reinstate provisions to reflect expertise and competence of psychologists by allowing them to conduct assessments and examinations;

― Limit the licensing fee requirements of healthcare providers to those who are not regulated by health regulatory colleges;

― Reinstate psychologists as experts who can provide evidence in court for claims where serious impairment of mental or psychological functions occurred; and

― Focus on restoring individuals to pre-accident levels of activity and not purely on treating pain-related issues.

A few stakeholders commented that the Government’s average rate reduction target of 15% by August 2015 is unlikely to be met by the target date, and that the Government might want to consider extending the target date. Furthermore, there were stakeholders who suggested that the Government should not begin any new initiatives, as a number of significant cost reduction initiatives are already underway (e.g., anti-fraud recommendations, changes to DRS) and the impact of these initiatives has not yet been fully realized or understood.

The IBAO offered a few additional recommendations for the Government to consider, including:

― Implementing the catastrophic impairment definition recommended by the Superintendent’s Report on the Definition of Catastrophic Impairment in the Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule118 (Superintendent’s Report);

― Implementing a cap on lawyers’ contingency fees. (IBAO cited an example of contingency fees as high as 40% of a claimant’s award and noted that in New Brunswick, lawyers’ contingency fees are capped at 25% of a claimant’s award);

― As recommended by IBC, increasing transparency regarding legal costs by authorizing FSCO to collect information on case-specific fee arrangements, disbursements and referral arrangements from lawyers and paralegals representing claimants of the automobile insurance tort and SABS claims. It is recommended that FSCO consider publishing an annual report on the information obtained. (IBAO notes that lawyers and paralegals are the only PPA insurance participants without FSCO oversight over their pricing schemes);

117 This is in reference to the discussion in Section 10.1.1.4. 118 FSCO, “Superintendent’s Report on the Definition of Catastrophic Impairment in the Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule,” December 15, 2011, accessed October 8, 2014. http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/si-report.pdf.

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/si-report.pdf


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― As recommended by IBC, increasing transparency regarding legal fees by prescribing that a fee disclosure statement be presented by the lawyer to its client prior to entering into a contingency fee arrangement;

― Removing the vanishing deductible on non-pecuniary awards for amounts under $100,000 except on awards pertaining to death. Currently, the $30,000 deductible ($15,000 on family awards) does not apply to awards that exceed $100,000. The concern is that the “vanishing deductible” may encourage claimants to inflate claim amounts in order to exceed the $100,000 threshold (e.g., removing the vanishing deductible would reduce incentive to inflate claim amounts); and

― Prohibiting tort recovery for pecuniary damages in excess of legislated fee limits and thresholds119 for all claims other than those that are serious and permanent. The objective is to remove an incentive to dispute claims.

10.4.5 Potential Actions by Other Stakeholders

With respect to actions that other stakeholders could take in order to reduce costs in the PPA insurance system, several stakeholders offered the following suggestions:

― Review costs of towing and storage;120 ― License tow truck industry;121 ― Promote accident prevention and injury reduction; ― Continue to utilize telematics to reduce premiums for safe drivers and encourage safe driving; ― Improve insurers’ internal claims and adjudication processes; ― Reduce the frequency of medical assessments; ― Enact oversight of medical examinations to insure that information is reliable and relevant; ― Require insurer’s examiners to have appropriate training and expertise and utilize professional

peer reviewers where appropriate; and ― Create standards for proper rehabilitation adjudication including consideration of relevant

evidence-based guidelines regarding assessment and treatment of both physical and mental health disorders.

In order to preserve his/her rights, within 120 days of an MVA, a claimant is required to send a letter to the other driver and that driver’s insurer stating the intention to commence an action for loss or damage for personal injury. Upon receipt of the letter, the other driver’s insurer opens a claim file and incurs transaction costs, even though in many cases a tort claim is never pursued. With a view of reducing insurer’s transaction costs, the Advocates’ Society suggested that this requirement be changed. The Advocates’ Society explained that while a claim made after a lengthy delay poses difficulties for an insurer’s investigation of the claim, there may be a middle ground whereby an insurer’s investigation is not hindered and unnecessary transaction costs are minimized. The Advocates’ Society did not propose what that middle ground might be.

119 IBAO did not elaborate on the legislated fee limits and thresholds. 120 We understand that this will be addressed in Bill 15, Fighting Fraud and Reducing Automobile Insurance Rates Act, 2014. 121 Ibid.


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To minimize the need for mediation and arbitration, ORA suggested the following potential actions:

― Reinstating mandatory IME for disputed denials prior to mediation; ― Instituting pre-mediation discussions to clarify areas of dispute and foster early resolution; and ― Involving all the parties directly affected in dispute resolution process.

To reduce the cost of medical assessments, OTLA proposed the following:

― Insurers’ assessments should not be permitted for issues that are subject to a paper review arbitration, such as whether a claimant fits under MIG or whether treatment plans should be carried out. OTLA believes that a paper review is sufficient under these circumstances and insurers’ assessments are not necessary.

― Insurers’ assessments should not be permitted more than once every six months.

― “Multi-disciplinary” assessments, where claimants are subject to multiple assessments within a short timeframe, should be eliminated.

― Insurers should not be permitted to spend more than a specified maximum on assessments in a non-catastrophic claim. OTLA submits that there is no reason to spend more than 10 percent of the available benefit amount (i.e., $5,000) on all assessments.

OTLA also suggested exploring methods of reducing payments on missed or cancelled appointments by claimants.

OPA commented that in addition to providing a common database for some of the costs in the system, HCAI provides an opportunity for insurers to better understand claims-related expenses; this may increase the efficiency of insurers’ claim settlement and invoice review, and payment processes. The Coalition also noted that the data from HCAI is providing information with which to examine some of the costs in the system, and further commented that the HCDB standard reports, published every six months by the IBC, contains useful analysis of data from HCAI.

With respect to issues related to the cost of towing and storage, OFIT and PTAO suggested that:

― Towing must be standardized and effectively regulated so that only qualified towers are allowed to operate in Ontario122;

― Implement an incident management system to manage towing needs. Such a system may manage towing requirements that arise from collisions that have occurred, or for instances where towing emergencies that arise from adverse weather or poor road conditions are expected to occur. This system would also manage a tow call allocation system, which promotes consistency in towing allocation and practices across the province;

― Fair value of towing and storage services should consider the public value of emergency towing; and

122 PTAO believes that Bill 15 allows for the establishment of regulations and standards for the towing industry. However, they believe that there are still some areas of major concern which require their input to be effective.


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― Municipal licensing of tow truck should be discontinued. This would increase the operational range of tow truck operators, which may result in improved customer service.

Lastly, some stakeholders had the following questions:

― Why are insurers allowed to pay excessive commissions to brokers? ― Why is it acceptable for insurers to spend the same amount (per claim) on denial of treatment

(through insurers’ examinations) as they would actually spend on the treatment itself?

10.5 Issues and Uncertainty as a Result of the Reforms and the Strategy

Questions 14 through 17 of the 2014 Annual Report Survey asked respondents to identify issues and uncertainties arising from the Reforms and the Strategy, to provide any findings and analyses with respect to the impact of these issues and uncertainties, and to provide comments on how to alleviate or mitigate the uncertainties. We summarize the comments received to questions 14 through 17 under the following headings:

― Areas of Uncertainties Identified by Representative Stakeholders; ― Issues Contributing to Uncertainty; and ― Suggested Action Steps to Alleviate or Mitigate Uncertainties.

10.5.1 Areas of Uncertainties Identified by Representative Stakeholders

In general, respondents are concerned with the lack of certainty around which aspects of the automobile insurance system will be subject to review and changes in order to achieve the Government’s 15% average rate reduction target for PPA automobile insurance by the end of August 2015.

Respondents identified a number of uncertainties which make it challenging for them to navigate the PPA insurance system. We summarize these below under the following headings:

― Catastrophic Impairment; ― MIG; ― Bodily Injury Claims; ― Definition of Economic Loss; and ― Income Replacement Benefits.

10.5.1.1 Catastrophic Impairment

Some respondents suggested that the categorization of what constitutes catastrophic impairment is uncertain, highly technical and currently open to too much interpretation. Case law around catastrophic impairment is unhelpful as it is too inconsistent to provide a clear definition of what constitutes catastrophic impairment.

The Anti-Fraud Task Force Consumer Representative suggested that clarity in the definition of catastrophic impairment could reduce legal costs. He also mentioned that clarifying the definition could


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reduce the incidence of claimants attempting to receive catastrophic-level injury benefits by claiming both physical and psychological impairment.

A member of CIAA123, as well as a few other stakeholders such as those representing healthcare providers, suggested that $50,000 is sometimes insufficient to treat serious injuries that are not categorized as catastrophic impairments. A concern is that if the injury is not sufficiently treated when the $50,000 limit is reached, the injury may worsen and a catastrophic claim could be triggered at a later date. Such situations could result in unnecessary costs. The member of the CIAA proposed to add another defined tier of injury with a higher limit than $50,000. This tier would fall between the current non-catastrophic and catastrophic definitions/limits, and would benefit claimants who require extensive therapies and expert treatments.

10.5.1.2 MIG

The Coalition noted that healthcare professional associations are concerned about the minor injury definition expanding from a focus on soft-tissue related injuries to including psychological/mental health disorders, brain injuries, and other injuries that do not fall within uncomplicated soft tissue injuries. According to the Coalition, although there is no evidence to support whether the $3,500 is a sufficient amount of funding, there continues to be no opportunity for those who end up with chronic musculoskeletal pain to have access to funding beyond the $3,500. The inclusion of HST within the limit has also impacted members that have to charge HST, resulting in further reduction in coverage.

The member of CIAA who responded to the 2014 Annual Report Survey noted a “billing loophole” that has become “accepted practice”. In order to “stretch” their MIG limit of $3,500, he advises his clients to pay chiropractors directly for individual treatments (the cost of which are usually around $30 to $35 as some of the treatments take less than 15 minutes). The respondent explained that similar treatments, if billed as an insurance claim, may cost insurers much more than if the claimant paid out-of-pocket. In addition, the respondent proposed that the $3,500 limit be increased as he believes that this limit is not sufficient for some claimants.

On the same topic, OTLA noted that a definition providing a more refined and narrowed scope of injuries covered under the MIG would benefit claimants by allowing them to obtain proper treatment for their injuries. This would also reduce the uncertainty faced by claimants and insurers, and reduce disputes between claimants and insurers.

10.5.1.3 Bodily Injury Claims

OIAA identified the limitation period and discoverability of bodily injury claims as sources of uncertainty. In this context, the recent ruling on the Gluchowski v. Lister124 case is of concern to OIAA. The ruling suggests that the two-year limitation period does not start from the time the plaintiff is aware of the injury; rather it runs from the time when the plaintiff was aware that they had sustained an injury

123 The CIAA only received comments from one member with respect to the 2014 Annual Report Survey. 124 Gluchowski v. Lister, 2014 ONSC 2190, April 29, 2014. https://www.canlii.org/en/on/onsc/doc/2014/2014onsc2190/2014onsc2190.html. Accessed October 20, 2014.

https://www.canlii.org/en/on/onsc/doc/2014/2014onsc2190/2014onsc2190.html


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that could result in a “threshold” claim125. OIAA fears that this could trigger additional bodily injury claims to be reported to automobile insurers.

10.5.1.4 Definition of Economic Loss

Several stakeholders noted that the definition of what constitutes “economic loss” continues to create uncertainty, both for insurers and claimants. This has the potential to lead to increased costs in the DRS.

10.5.1.5 Income Replacement Benefits

OTLA commented that the maximum amount available under the income replacement benefits has remained static at $400 per week since 1996. They suggested that this maximum level be increased to $600 per week, which would allow claimants and their families to “subsist at a time of crisis”. According to OTLA, such an increase would reduce the uncertainty that the claimants face and provide a better opportunity for claimants to recover and return to work. OTLA also noted that increasing the maximum income replacement benefits amount available would decrease potentially longer term costs to the system as claimants who are fairly compensated by income replacement benefits would be far less likely to initiate a tort claim. They believe that this would also reduce costs to the system.

10.5.2 Issues Contributing to Uncertainty

Stakeholders in the Ontario automobile insurance system are negatively affected by the rapid and unpredictable changes. This creates uncertainty. Furthermore, several stakeholders noted that the rate at which regulatory amendments are issued does not allow the Government and FSCO to understand the impacts of various aspects of the Reforms.

We summarize the comments received regarding issues that the Representative Stakeholders see as contributing to uncertainty in the automobile insurance system under the following headings:

― Consumer Representation; ― Data Availability ― Healthcare Related Issues; and ― Other Issues.

10.5.2.1 Consumer Representation

A few stakeholders noted that there is uncertainty as to who represents the best interest of the general consumers. In particular, there were multiple comments that consumers are not sufficiently educated on the coverage that they may require. Nor are they able to understand claim forms easily. It was

125 For a person to be held liable in an action for loss or damage due to bodily injury arising from an MVA, the injured person seeking to recover damages must meet the “threshold” as provided by section 266(1) of the Ontario Insurance Act.


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suggested that consumers need clear and concise definitions of what is and is not covered by their insurance policies.

In addition, FAIR was concerned that there is uncertainty in the regulations governing the actions of insurers and that it does not appear to them that insurers are held accountable in the present system. FAIR also commented that they are uncertain if IME providers and treatment providers have sufficient oversight through the existing health regulatory colleges. To foster consumer representation FAIR suggested an open and transparent complaints system available to claimants126.

10.5.2.2 Data Availability

The Coalition commented that HCAI has significantly improved information that is available, but noted that there appears to be decisions that are made based on hypothetical numbers or numbers that are not broadly shared with all stakeholders in the industry. The Coalition suggested that data should be shared with all stakeholders and that future decisions in the automobile insurance system be made based on real data and not on any anecdotal evidence.

OPA also commented that lack of data and shared information is the main contributor to uncertainty. They also echoed the Coalition’s comments regarding HCAI and further sharing of information between all relevant stakeholders.

10.5.2.3 Healthcare Related Issues

The following issues were identified by stakeholders as contributing to uncertainty in the automobile insurance system in relation to the delivery of healthcare to MVA victims:

― Loss of valuable medical experts in the medical assessment industry. Respondents are worried about what they see as a trend created by the SABS’ $2,000 cap on fees for assessment and examinations as well as FSCO’s professional services fee guidelines;

― Use of unqualified assessors by some lower quality IME facilities. Respondents are worried about this trend as they believe that it could result in treatment proposals that are not congruent with proposals from AIAC members; and

― Changing regulations making it difficult for healthcare professionals to plan their practices. Respondents noted that it is difficult to achieve operational efficiencies and complete business planning beyond the short term as a result of the constant change.

10.5.2.4 Other Issues

Respondents identified many other issues as contributing to uncertainty in the automobile insurance system. These issues include:

126 We note that claimants can currently contact FSCO and their own insurer’s ombudsmen.


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― Adjustment for post-accident income in non-earner benefits. Some respondent thought that non-earner benefits should be reduced by post-accident income. These respondents do not think that the current regime is clear on whether and/or how post-accident income should be treated in the case of non-earners benefits;

― Variations in interpretation from one insurer to another. Some respondents observed a level of uncertainty regarding how insurers will respond to changes to, and interpretation of, regulations;

― Frequent procedural amendments and changes. These change are created by arbitration decisions that are counter intuitive to the SABS;

― FSCO’s regulatory approach to telematics127;

― Savings offset by increases in costs other systems. Some cost savings in the PPA insurance system due to the Reforms may be offset by increased costs elsewhere (e.g. Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), other public services, and to claimants and their families); and

― Financial resources of insurers. Due to their financial resources, insurers have a disproportionate voice in the PPA insurance system, and are able to exert more pressure on the Government than other stakeholders. This is viewed as a source of uncertainty as it is believed that insurers can persuade the Government to enact change in regulation.

10.5.3 Suggested Action Steps to Alleviate or Mitigate Uncertainties

Stakeholders suggested various action steps that are included in prior sections of this report. In general, stakeholders would push for changes to be made through the implementation of: anti-fraud recommendations, a new catastrophic definition, and the new DRS. Other comments received from the Representative Stakeholders include

OFIT suggested that a lack of resources for consumers to understand the PPA insurance product increases the uncertainty that consumers have about the product. OFIT’s opinion was that better communication is required so that consumers know what to expect and feel confident that they will get it when needed.

OPA suggested that data gathered through HCAI may help in understanding trends and reducing uncertainty. Data such as:

― The number of assessment/treatment plan applications, denials, insurer examinations regarding medical and rehabilitation benefits and their outcomes;

― The number of applications, approvals, insurer examinations and outcomes for disability and catastrophic determinations; and

― The amounts paid for income replacement benefits.

127 The respondent did not elaborate on this point.


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ORA suggested that FSCO’s mandatory Ontario auto insurance three-year review128 is too frequent and does not allow for stability in the PPA insurance system. Changing the time period to five years would allow stakeholders to design and gain efficiencies from new initiatives, systems, policies, and procedures, as well as allow legal precedents to emerge.

The Anti-Fraud Task Force Consumer Representative suggested that the large number of small P&C insurers may benefit from Government action, where the small P&C insurers may be encouraged by the Government to retain a large-scale expert in the administration of medical benefits, such as a major life insurer that could operate for a number of insurers on a fee-for-service basis. Alternatively, Anti-Fraud Task Force Consumer Representative thought that small P&C insurers could work through the IBC to form a medical benefits administrator, similar to the way the Facility Association enables the industry to deal with high-risk drivers.

10.6 Competitiveness of the Ontario PPA Insurance Market

Question 18 of the 2014 Annual Report Survey asked respondents to comment on whether the auto insurance marketplace in Ontario is sufficiently competitive and efficient in providing affordable premiums to consumers. Many respondents commented on this topic.

The following Representative Stakeholders believe that the PPA insurance system is not sufficiently competitive and or efficient in providing affordable premiums: the Anti-Fraud Task Force Consumer Representative, the Coalition, OPA, OIAA, and OFIT.

The Anti-Fraud Task Force Consumer Representative commented that there may be too many players involved in the Ontario PPA insurance system to ensure sufficient competence when dealing with such a complicated personal injury product. This respondent further noted that the cost of extended healthcare plans is also higher in Ontario than in other provinces, and suggested that the PPA insurance system will benefit from increased scale and develop greater competence as consolidation occurs.

The Coalition believes that the PPA insurance system is not sufficiently competitive. In their view, there are ways to improve the competitiveness and efficiency of the system. They felt that the entire system should be reviewed from an efficiency perspective as they do not believe that reducing accident benefits any further is the solution to reducing cost in the system.

Similarly, OFIT commented that they do not believe that the system is competitive enough.

OPA echoed the Coalition’s view on competition. Anecdotal evidence was provided that many of the psychologists’ patients did not receive sufficient information from their brokers at the time of purchasing or renewing their insurance policies regarding the optional benefits that are available in the market. In addition, they mentioned anecdotal evidence that it was not clear if at the time of renewal brokers undertake a comparison of rates between insurers. OPA also questioned the commission structure available to brokers, and wondered if further consolidation of insurers will reduce competition.

128 Under section 289 of the Ontario Insurance Act, the Superintendent of FSCO is required to undertake a review of Part VI of the Insurance Act (Automobile Insurance) and the related regulations every three years.


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OIAA stated that insurance rates in Ontario are the highest in the country. In OIAA’s opinion, this is largely due to the higher incidence of fraud in Ontario. They further commented that if Ontario can reduce fraud and better align first party benefits with those benefits available in other provinces, then rates should become more affordable. However as of now, OIAA does not believe that the PPA insurance system is efficient in providing affordable premiums to consumers.

The only Representative Stakeholder who responded that they view the Ontario PPA insurance system as sufficiently competitive is IBAO. However, their response to this question did not elaborate on this statement.

Finally, ORA did not specifically comment on their view of the competitiveness of the PPA insurance system, but they noted that the Government should consider reviewing the pros and cons of all and any auto insurance products, public or private, that will provide the benefits that insured drivers need.

10.7 Comments on Recent Appeal Decisions

Question 19 of the 2014 Annual Report Survey asked respondents to comment on three recent appeal decisions:

― Scarlett v. Belair; ― Pastore v. Aviva; and ― Henry v. Gore Mutual.

10.7.1 Scarlett v. Belair129

The Scarlett V. Belair 2013 FSCO appeal decision reversed a decision rendered in 2012 on an arbitration case. Under the FSCO appeal decision, the Director’s Delegate stated the following:

― The MIG is binding as it is incorporated by reference within the SABS;

― The burden of proof always remains with the insured (and not the insurer) for proving that the injuries are within the scope of coverage;

― “Compelling evidence” mean more than simply credible evidence; and

― To determine whether an insured is subject to the MIG, the relevant test is whether the impairment is predominantly a minor injury (i.e., if an insured suffers from a variety of impairments, all of the impairments are evaluated as a whole to determine if the combination is predominantly within the definition of minor injury or associated sequelae).

With respect to the Scarlett v. Belair FSCO appeal decision, the Advocates’ Society commented that for insurers the decision confirms the benefits that are to be paid under the MIG injuries falling under

129 Scarlett v. Belair is an appeal decision order issued by FSCO Director’s Delegate ([2013] O.F.S.C.D. No. 42 (Dir. Del.

Evans)) to an arbitration decision rendered in 2012. Information on this decision is available in FSCO’s database of arbitration and appeal decisions. Various personal injury law firms also provide summaries of the key elements of the decision on their websites.


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the MIG. The Advocates’ Society also notes that for claimants, the decision appears to increase the frustration with inadequate recourse under the MIG.

To the Coalition, the Scarlett v. Belair appeal decision is important to members who treat patients “within the minor injury realm, especially around mental health and behavioural disorders.” With respect to whether a mental-related disorder falls within the definition of minor injury, “the Coalition is of the opinion that while a psycho-social issue may be addressed within the Minor Injury Guideline, a diagnosis of a psychological disorder would exclude an individual from the minor injury definition.”

10.7.2 Pastore v. Aviva130

The Pastore v. Aviva Court of Appeal decision affirmed that a person must have a marked impairment in only one of the four areas of key functioning cited in the fourth edition of the AMA Guides in order to satisfy the catastrophic impairment criteria.

The Coalition and OPA noted that insurers were concerned that the Ontario Court of Appeal decision in this matter would result in a significant increase in the number of catastrophic claims. In this regard, the Coalition thinks that there has been an increase of “a very small number of individuals found to have a catastrophic impairment due to a mental health disorder” as a result of this appeal decision while OPA’s perception is that the decision has not resulted in an increase. OPA further observed that in their view the definition of catastrophic impairment remains very stringent.

10.7.3 Henry v. Gore Mutual131

Regarding Henry v. Gore Mutual Insurance Company, the Court of Appeal upheld a decision of the lower Court that the benefits incurred for attendant care is not limited to the amount of the economic loss sustained by the caregiver. However, the case was superseded by legislative amendments under which, effective February 1, 2014, attendant care benefits are limited to the amount of economic loss if the attendant care provider is not acting in the normal course of his or her employment.132

The Advocates’ Society commented on the effect of these legislative amendments. They observed that from the insurers’ perspective, Henry v. Gore “muddied the waters” with regard to the definition of incurred expenses, and that the legislative amendments were effective in reducing costs. The Advocates’ Society further noted that it is too early to know what the practical implications of the legislative amendments will be.

130 Pastore v. Aviva Canada Inc., 2012 ONCA 642, 27 September 2012, CanLii,

http://www.canlii.org/en/on/onca/doc/2012/2012onca642/2012onca642.html. Accessed October 5, 2014. Various personal injury law firms also provide summaries of the key elements of the decision on their websites.

131 Henry v. Gore Mutual Insurance Company, 2013 ONCA 480, 16 July 2013,

http://www.canlii.org/en/on/onca/doc/2013/2013onca480/2013onca480.html, accessed October 6, 2014. Various personal injury law firms also provide summaries of the key elements of the decision on their websites.

132 FSCO, “New Regulations for Service Provider Licensing and Changes to Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule –

Effective September 1, 2010”, www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-07-13.aspx, accessed October 5, 2014

http://www.canlii.org/en/on/onca/doc/2012/2012onca642/2012onca642.html


http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-07-13.aspx


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OPA understands that the intention of the February 1, 2014 amendments was to address possible inappropriate practices, such as claims that family members received compensation for services not actually rendered. However, OPA suggested that “there may have been more targeted ways to address this concern.”

In the view of the Coalition and OPA, the number of individuals who qualify for attendant care is very limited. These two stakeholders also noted that all attendant care services are subject to insurer approval. As such, they commented that insurers are in control of the terms of the attendant care services.

10.8 Other

The final question of the 2014 Annual Report Survey asked respondents if they had any other comments regarding the Reforms and the automobile insurance system in Ontario. Three respondents chose to provide additional comments.

The Advocates’ Society stated that they would support an annual review of the automobile insurance system in Ontario. In their view, this would allow for more responsive changes to the system.

The IBAO is concerned with potential availability issues. They mentioned that if the Government forces insurers to lower rates to levels that are not justified, they fear that insurers could exit certain segments of the automobile insurance market and cause greater hardship to customers in those segments133.

ORA commented that they feel that “any additional slashes to AB’s are irresponsible and will bring into question the very reason for the existence of mandated insurance.” They also stated that “sufficient time must be given for fraud-fighting measures to take place even if the 15% reduction to premiums takes longer than two years to materialize.”

133 IBAO did not elaborate on which segments may be affected.


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11 APPENDIX E – STATUTORY ACCIDENT BENEFITS SCHEDULE SUMMARY

Table 11.1: Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule Summary

Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule Summary 134 135

BENEFIT TYPE SABS

SECTION MINOR INJURY

GUIDELINE (MIG) NON-CATASTROPHIC

IMPAIRMENT CATASTROPHIC IMPAIRMENT

The impairment is predominately a minor injury – “means one or more of a sprain, strain, whiplash associated disorder, contusion, abrasion, laceration or subluxation and includes any clinically associate sequelae to such an injury” A pre-existing condition may prevent the claimant from being classified under the MIG**

The impairment is not a minor injury, but you are not deemed to have a catastrophic impairment (defined in the next column)

Catastrophic injuries are the most severe injuries Your impairment involves paraplegia or quadriplegia, loss of an arm or serious head injury, or a combination of impairments (physical and/or psychological) equal to a 55% whole person impairment or significant psychological impairment Determined by medical and legal professionals according to specific criteria

REPORTS*

Cost of Assessments, Examinations and Preparing Reports

18(5) All fees and expenses for conducting assessments, examinations and preparing reports are to be paid out of medical and rehabilitation limits (excluding insurer examinations and accounting reports for income replacement benefits) (these expenses were formerly paid by the insurer out of separate category of benefits with no monetary limit)

Maximum Cost of Assessments and Examinations and Disallowing Future Care Reports

25(5) Absolute cap of $2,000 for fees and expenses associated with any assessment or examination, including the cost of preparing reports (and including insurer examinations), along with a prohibition on an insurer paying for a future care or similar plan (there was never a cap on assessment costs—the criteria for recovery was simply 'reasonable and necessary')

In-home assessments and examinations

25(2) Not Available Available Available

134 This table is for informational purposes only. Please refer to the full SABS for precise information.

135 Source of table: Financial Services Commission of Ontario “New Regulations for Service Provider Licensing and

Changes to Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule – Effective September 1, 2010” www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-07-13.aspx accessed October 5, 2014; Thomson Rogers, “Statutory Accident Benefits Table Summary - Revised August 17, 2010”; www.thomsonrogers.com accessed October 4, 2014; Singer Kwinter, “A Guide to Ontario’s Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule (SABS), Effective September 1, 2010”, http://singerkwinter.com/ontario-accident-benefit-claims/ accessed October 5, 2014.

http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-07-13.aspx%20accessed%20October%205

http://www.thomsonrogers.com/

http://singerkwinter.com/ontario-accident-benefit-claims/


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RECOVERY AND ASSISTANCE*

Medical and Rehabilitation Benefits*

15, 16, 18 & 20

$3,500 maximum (includes the cost of all treatments and assessments) —can be increased to $50,000 if there is compelling evidence that a pre-existing medical condition will prevent the insured person from achieving maximal recovery with access to only $3,500

Maximum of $50,000 available for 10 years or until the person is 25 years old** (includes the costs off treatments and assessments) (was a $100,000 maximum)

Maximum of $1,000,000 available for life (includes the costs of all treatments and assessments)

Qualified Case Manager Services

17 Not Available Not Available Available (paid out of med/rehab limit)

Attendant Care Benefits

19, 20, 25(1)(4), 28 & 14.2

Not Available $3,000 per month maximum (total maximum of $36,000) for 2 years (as determined by OT or RN)*** (was a total maximum of $72,000 and there was no restriction on who could complete a Form 1)

$6,000 per month maximum (with a lifetime maximum of $1,000,000) (as determined by OT or RN)*** (was no restriction on who could complete a Form 1)

Transportation 3(1) Only for the portion of any distances over 50 kms Yes, Available for any distance travelled

Housekeeping and Home Maintenance

23 Not Available (was available at $100 per week for 2 years)

Maximum of $100 per week available for life

Lost Educational Expenses

21 Up to $15,000 payable to those enrolled in school who are unable to continue with their program

Visitor's Expenses

Certain expenses incurred by visiting family for 2 years (no financial limit for the first 2 years)

Pays certain expenses incurred by visiting family (available for life)

Damage to Clothing

24 Reimbursement for damage to clothing, medical and dental devices lost or damaged in the accident (no limit)

FINANCIAL*

Income Replacement Benefits ****

6 & 7 Up to a maximum of $400 a week, commencing one week following the loss Eligible if were earning income before the accident and are unable to return to work Calculated by taking 70% of gross income for the first two years if you are unable to do your own job, thereafter if you are unable to do any job, until age 65 which decreases till death (was paid at 80% of net)

Non-Earner Benefits ****

12 $185 per week commencing 26 weeks post-accident if unable to carry on a normal life If in school at time of accident, increases to $320 per week after two years

Caregiver Benefits ****

13 Not available* (was available if substantially unable to engage in caregiving activities at $250 per week for the first person in need plus $50 per week all other persons in need of care—was available after the 2 year anniversary only if the person suffered a complete inability to carry on a normal life)

Available if the injury prevent you from providing care to a dependent person $250/week for the first person $50/week for all others Available for 2 years if not able to be a caregiver, thereafter if there is “a complete inability to carry on a normal life”

DEATH BENEFITS & FUNERAL EXPENSES

26 & 27 $25,000 to spouse; $10,000 to a supported former spouse; $10,000 per dependent; $25,000 divided equally among dependents, if there is no spouse; $6,000 maximum for funeral expenses

* Coverage may increase with optional benefits. **Effective February 1, 2014, a pre-existing condition must be documented by a health practitioner prior to the accident. Previously, a health practitioner could determine and provided evidence that they had a pre-existing medical condition preventing them from achieving maximal recovery post-accident. *** Effective February 1, 2014 attendant care benefits are limited to actual economic loss, if the attendant care provider is not acting in the normal course of his or her employment. **** Effective February 1, 2014 an election for income replacement, non-earner or caregiver benefits is final regardless of any change in circumstances, except if a claimant is subsequently determined to have sustained a catastrophic impairment. Italics writing refers to the pre September 1, 2010 SABS


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12 APPENDIX F – REFERENCE SOURCES Actuarial Standards Board, “Standards of Practice”, paragraph 1610.10. Accessed on October 17, 2014. http://www.cia-ica.ca/docs/default-source/standards/SG101514e.pdf

CANATICS. Accessed on March 13, 2014. http://canatics.ca/

Consumers Council of Canada, “Consumer Groups’ Capacity to Assess Potential Consumer Impacts of Policy Proposals”. Accessed on September 21, 2014. http://www.consumerscouncil.com/site/consumers_council_of_canada/assets/pdf/Consumer_Impacts.pdf

Court of Appeal for Ontario, “Henry v. Gore Mutual Insurance Company”, 2013 ONCA 480, 16 July 2013. Accessed October 6, 2014. http://www.canlii.org/en/on/onca/doc/2013/2013onca480/2013onca480.html

Court of Appeal for Ontario, “Pastore v. Aviva Canada Inc.”, 2012 ONCA 642, 27 September 2012. Accessed October 5, 2014. http://www.canlii.org/en/on/onca/doc/2012/2012onca642/2012onca642.html

FSCO, “Annual Report 2011-2012”. Accessed October 27, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/about/annual_reports/Documents/2011-2012-annual-report.pdf

FSCO, “Apply Now for Your Licence”. Accessed November 7, 2014. http://fsco.gov.on.ca/en/service-providers/faqs/Pages/default.aspx

FSCO, “Auto Quarterly Rate Approvals”, last modified July 15, 2014. Accessed October 10, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/rates/Pages/default.aspx

FSCO, “Cost of Assessments and Examinations Guideline, Superintendent’s Guideline No. 09/10”, November 2010. Accessed October 24, 2014. https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2010/Documents/A-23_10-1.pdf

FSCO, “Minor Injury Treatment Protocol – Activity Updates”. Accessed on October 25, 2014. https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/Pages/activity-update.aspx

FSCO, “New Regulations for Service Provider Licensing and Changes to Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule – Effective September 1, 2010”. Accessed October 5, 2014. www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-07-13.aspx

FSCO, “Superintendent’s Report on the Definition of Catastrophic Impairment in the Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule,” December 15, 2011, accessed October 8, 2014. http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/si-report.pdf

FSCO, “Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings”, August 2013, Exhibit 2, Page 2. Accessed on March 13, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/Documents/Technical-Notes.pdf


http://canatics.ca/








http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/rates/Pages/default.aspx

https://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2010/Documents/A-23_10-1.pdf


http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/autobulletins/2013/Pages/a-07-13.aspx

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/si-report.pdf




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FSCO, “Technical Notes for Automobile Insurance Rate and Risk Classification Filings”, October 2014. Accessed on October 14, 2014. http://www.fsco.gov.on.ca/en/auto/filing-guidelines/documents/technical-notes.pdf

FSCO, “Understanding Rates / An Interactive Tool.” Accessed October 27, 2014. http://www5.fsco.gov.on.ca/autorate/

GISA, “Automobile Statistical Plan”. Accessed on September 21, 2014. www.gisa.ca/en/techman/documents/ASP_Manual_v2.4-En.pdf

GISA. Accessed on September 21, 2014. www.gisa.ca/en/

IAIS, “Insurance Core Principles, Standards, Guidance and Assessment Methodology”, October 19, 2013. Accessed October 17, 2014, http://www.iaisweb.org/view/element_href.cfm?src=1/20567.pdf

Insurance Bureau of Canada, Facility Association, “Who is insured through Facility Association?” Accessed on March 13, 2014. http://ibc.ca/en/Car_Insurance/Introduction/Facility_Association.asp

Justice Douglas Cunningham, “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”, Accessed on September 25, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html#appA

Justice Douglas Cunningham, “Ontario Automobile Insurance Dispute Resolution System Review Interim Report”, October 2013. Accessed November 7, 2014. http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/consultations/auto/request-for-submission-interim-report.html

Kanetix. Accessed October 27, 2014. www.kanetix.ca

KPMG LLP, “Province of Ontario Ministry of Finance Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Expert Report – Interim Report”, final release April 14, 2014. Accessed on September 12, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/kpmg-expert-report.pdf

KPMG LLP, “Towing and Storage Advisory Group - Report and Recommendations to the Ministry of Consumer Services”, March 12, 2014. Accessed October 4, 2013. www.ontariocanada.com/registry/view.do?postingId=15664

Ontario Superior Court of Justice, “Gluchowski v. Lister”, 2014 ONSC 2190, April 29, 2014. Accessed October 20, 2014. https://www.canlii.org/en/on/onsc/doc/2014/2014onsc2190/2014onsc2190.html

ORA, “Strengthening our members”. Accessed on October 4, 2014. www.ontariorehaballiance.com/page/strengthening-members/

OSFI, “2013-2014 Annual Report”. Accessed October 12, 2014. http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/Docs/ar-ra/1314/eng/p6-eng.html

OSFI, “Canadian Property and Casualty Insurance Companies Returns and Instructions”, modified date: 2014-02-26. Accessed on September 21, 2014. www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/rtn-rlv/fr-rf/ic-sa/pc-sam/Pages/pc1.aspx



http://www5.fsco.gov.on.ca/autorate/

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http://ibc.ca/en/Car_Insurance/Introduction/Facility_Association.asp




http://www.kanetix.ca/

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http://www.ontariorehaballiance.com/page/strengthening-members/




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Singer Kwinter, “A Guide to Ontario’s Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule (SABS), Effective September 1, 2010”. Accessed October 5, 2014. http://singerkwinter.com/ontario-accident-benefit-claims/

The Government of Ontario, “Bill 15 – Fighting Fraud and Reducing Automobile Insurance Rates Act, 2014”. Accessed November 7, 2014. http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/bills/bills_detail.do?locale=en&Intranet=&BillID=3007

The Government of Ontario, “Ontario Regulation 237/13 under the Automobile Insurance Rate Stabilization Act”, 2003. Accessed November 5, 2014, http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/source/regs/english/2013/elaws_src_regs_r13237_e.htm

The Government of Ontario, “Ontario Regulation 34/10, Statutory Accident Benefits Schedule”, effective September 1, 2010. Accessed October 7, 2014. http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/regs/english/elaws_regs_100034_e.htm

The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Consumer Services, “Towing and Storage Advisory Group – Report and Recommendations to the Ministry of Consumer Services”, March 12, 2014. Accessed on October 15, 2014, http://www.ontariocanada.com/registry/showAttachment.do?postingId=15664&attachmentId=23891

The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “2013 Ontario Budget Chapter IV: Tax, Pension and Financial Services”, last modified May 2, 2013. Accessed on September 20, 2014, www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/budget/ontariobudgets/2013/ch4.html#ch4c

The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “2014 Ontario Automobile Dispute Resolution System Review Final Report”, February 2014. Accessed on October 15, 2014, http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/drs-final-report.html

The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “Final Report of the Ontario Automobile Insurance Anti-Fraud Task Force Steering Committee”, October 16, 2012. Accessed on October 15, 2014, http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/autoinsurance/final-report.html

The Government of Ontario, Ministry of Transportation, “Ontario Road Safety Annual Report 2011”. Accessed November 5, 2014. http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsar/orsar11/ontario-road-safety-annual-report-2011.pdf

Thomson Rogers, “Statutory Accident Benefits Table Summary - Revised August 17, 2010”. Accessed October 4, 2014. www.thomsonrogers.com

Working Group chaired by the FSCO, “About the Professional Credential Tracker (PCT)”. Accessed on October 4, 2014. www.aboutpct.ca/About-PCT/index.shtml



http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/bills/bills_detail.do?locale=en&Intranet=&BillID=3007





http://www.ontariocanada.com/registry/showAttachment.do?postingId=15664&attachmentId=23891





http://www.thomsonrogers.com/


Province of Ontario – Ministry of Finance Automobile Insurance Transparency and Accountability Interim Report

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