australian gold miners - macquarie...newcrest mining ncm au hb 15.90 8,758 n aud 14.00 -11.9%...

Please refer to page 13 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

AUSTRALIA

Gold price, various currencies, 1yr ago = 100

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2016

Silver ETF inflows (outflows), tonnes/week

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2016

Gold price v US 2yr yield, %

Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Research, February 2016

22 February 2016

Australian Gold Miners Australian equities in a global context Commodity view

The health of the world economy and central banks’ ability to remain in control

will continue to be the main focus for gold and silver prices this week.

Preliminary PMI data will give a good indication of growth in leading

economies, while Eurozone inflation data (due Friday) will show the scale of

the ECB’s task in avoiding deflation. A plethora of Fed governor speeches will

also be keenly watched, especially as the most recent US data has been

more encouraging. But as important as all of these, will be the wider market

reaction – especially equity and FX markets.

Gold, especially, but also silver put in a robust performance last week, despite

some reversal in the ‘fear trade’ with modestly recovering equity markets

(Fig 10) and slightly higher bond yields (Fig 9). Gold fell by 0.6% WoW, but

that was from a very high level and it ended the week more than 3% higher

than its low in mid-week. Silver did worse, down 2.2%, though it too was off its

lows. Nevertheless the move took the gold/silver ratio to its highest since 2009.

Equity themes

Good times roll in the Golden West. We recently toured Western

Australia’s goldfields visiting some of Australia’s pre-eminent mid-tier gold

mines. Separately we also recently visited DRM’s Deflector project where the

company has made impressive progress in delivering its second mine. Two

key themes emerged from our trip. In the first instance the WA gold sector in

is a strong position. Secondly exploration is re-emerging as a key driver of

future value.

Cost outs to continue. Management and operational teams were notably

confident with operations enjoying buoyant gold prices, low costs and steady

production profiles. Operational excellence and continuous improvement

initiatives were plentiful. Whilst a rebound in the oil price (and a likely

concurrent drop in the gold price) will no doubt impact margins, we believe

that sustained cost reduction efforts across the sector and vastly improved

contract and employment rates have locked in lower production costs for the

foreseeable future.

Brownfields exploration likely to yield big dividends. NST’s Jundee and

Kundana were the most striking examples with management’s willingness to

commit to meaningful brownfield exploration programmes, unlocking years of

pent up geological insight. We also see promise in RRL’s revitalised

exploration push with the Rosemont-Idaho-Baneygo trend and Moolart Well

satellites looking prospective for oxide ounces to sustain production beyond

the current reserve life. SAR’s approach of ‘exploring by decline’ is also

paying off with Karari starting to shape up into an underground bulk mining

opportunity. We continue to be impressed by the sheer quality of the Gwalia

ore body. Recent results from the Gwalia Deeps drilling programme suggest

there is a decline in gold grade beyond 1,800m depth. However, we remain

confident that SBM will define sufficient resources and ultimately reserves to

progress the mine beyond the existing reserves and extend the current 7 year

mine life. Finally GOR’s PFS for Gruyere has in our view delivered a robust

frame work for a significant new entrant to the WA gold space presenting both

an attractive standalone investment opportunity, or an exciting M&A target.

80

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100

110

120

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140

Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16

AUD NZD CAD

ZAR USD

(300)

(200)

(100)

0

100

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300

Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15

3m moving average

http://www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures

Macquarie Wealth Management Australian Gold Miners

22 February 2016 2

Fig 1 Macquarie global stock coverage and gold analysts

Canada

MG Michael Gray

[email protected]

+1 604 639 6372

MS Michael Siperco

[email protected]

+1 416 848 3520

Australia

BC Ben Crowley

[email protected]

+61 8 9224 0839

HB Hayden Bairstow

[email protected]

+61 8 9224 0838

South Africa

JO James Oberholzer

[email protected]

+27 11 5832367

Hong Kong

PD Patrick Dai

[email protected]

+86 21 24129080

London

PM Patrick Morton

[email protected]

+44 20 3037 2014

Source: Thomson ONE, Macquarie Research, February 2016

Valuation Date Ticker Analyst Price Mkt Cap Rec. Target Target Return

2/19/2016 Local US$m Curr. Local to Target

Goldcorp G CN MS 21.25 13,101 O CAD 22.00 3.5%

Zijin Mining (A-Share) 601899 CH PD 3.19 7,622 N CNY 5.00 56.7%

Barrick Gold ABX CN MS 17.26 14,719 N CAD 10.00 -42.1%

Fresnillo FRES LN PM 9.54 9,884 N GBP 9.00 -5.6%

Newcrest Mining NCM AU HB 15.90 8,758 N AUD 14.00 -11.9%

Randgold Resources RRS LN PM 63.38 8,422 N GBP 60.00 -5.3%

Agnico Eagle Mines AEM CN MS 47.62 7,644 O CAD 45.00 -5.5%

AngloGold Ashanti ANG SJ JO 167.03 4,043 O ZAR 177.00 6.0%

Sibanye Gold SGL SJ JO 46.87 2,546 O ZAR 32.00 -31.7%

Eldorado Gold ELD CN MS 4.02 2,149 N CAD 3.25 -19.2%

Kinross Gold K CN MS 4.07 3,463 N CAD 2.25 -44.7%

Gold Fields GFI SJ JO 60.70 2,745 O ZAR 60.00 -1.2%

Yamana Gold YRI CN MS 3.71 2,529 N CAD 2.50 -32.6%

Seniors Average -10.3%

Seniors Median -5.6%

Franco-Nevada FNV CN MS 78.75 9,006 O CAD 72.00 -8.6%

Silver Wheaton SLW CN MG 21.43 6,389 O CAD 27.00 26.0%

Royal Gold RGL CN MS 59.80 2,899 O CAD 75.00 25.4%

Anglo Pacific Group APF LN AO 0.55 134 O GBP 0.70 26.7%

AuRico Metals AMI CN MS 0.64 61 O CAD 0.90 40.6%

Royalties/Streamers Average 22.0%

Royalties/Streamers Median 26.0%

Tahoe Resources THO CN MG 12.44 2,025 O CAD 17.00 36.7%

Detour Gold DGC CN MS 21.53 2,761 O CAD 23.00 6.8%

Evolution Mining EVN AU HB 1.81 1,907 N AUD 1.70 -6.1%

Acacia Mining ACA LN PM 2.31 1,338 U GBP 2.10 -9.3%

Northern Star Resources NST AU HB 3.87 1,669 N AUD 3.10 -19.9%

Independence Group NL IGO AU HB 2.70 992 O AUD 3.30 22.2%

Centamin CEY LN PM 0.86 1,361 O GBP 0.90 5.1%

B2Gold BTO CN MG 1.50 1,039 O CAD 1.50 0.0%

OceanaGold Corporation OGC CN MG 3.62 1,717 O CAD 4.00 10.5%

Alamos Gold AGI CN MG 5.89 1,135 O CAD 8.25 40.1%

IAMGOLD Corp IMG CN MS 3.39 979 U CAD 1.25 -63.1%

Regis Resources RRL AU BC 2.52 905 N AUD 2.30 -8.7%

Semafo SMF CN MG 4.26 945 O CAD 4.50 5.6%

Torex Gold Resources TXG CN MG 1.58 943 O CAD 1.75 10.8%

Alacer Gold AQG AU BC 2.70 562 U AUD 2.50 -7.4%

Primero Mining P CN MG 1.99 236 N CAD 2.75 38.2%

Kirkland Lake Gold KGI CN MS 7.31 428 O CAD 9.50 30.0%

Harmony Gold Mining Co HAR SJ JO 39.34 1,053 O ZAR 44.00 11.8%

Intermediates Average 5.7%

Intermediates Median 6.2%

St Barbara SBM AU BC 1.70 605 N AUD 1.80 5.9%

Saracen Mineral Holdings SAR AU BC 0.95 541 N AUD 0.77 -18.9%

Pan African Resources PAF LN PM 0.13 340 O GBP 0.10 -23.8%

Richmont Mines RIC CN MG 6.61 283 O CAD 8.00 21.0%

Teranga Gold TGZ CN MG 0.57 171 O CAD 0.90 57.9%

Perseus Mining PRU AU BC 0.36 135 U AUD 0.25 -29.6%

Doray Minerals DRM AU BC 0.80 177 N AUD 0.60 -25.0%

Kingsgate Consolidated KCN AU BC 0.50 80 U AUD 0.20 -59.6%

Beadell Resources BDR AU BC 0.24 137 U AUD 0.11 -54.2%

Medusa Mining MML AU BC 0.60 90 U AUD 0.30 -50.0%

Juniors Average -17.6%

Juniors Median -24.4%

Producers Average -2.1%

Producers Median -3.2%

MAG Silver Corp MAG CN MG 11.13 570 O CAD 18.00 61.7%

Gold Road Resources GOR AU BC 0.46 231 O AUD 0.70 52.2%

Integra Gold ICG CN MG 0.40 110 O CAD 0.90 125.0%

ATAC Resources ATC CN MG 0.55 51 O CAD 0.85 54.5%

Pilot Gold PLG CN MG 0.34 26 O CAD 0.90 168.7%

Eastmain Resources ER CN MG 0.37 37 O CAD 0.90 143.2%

Midas Gold MAX CN MG 0.36 44 O CAD 0.90 150.0%

Probe Metals PRB CN MG 0.37 10 O CAD 0.75 105.5%

Explorers/Developers Average 107.6%

Explorers/Developers Median 115.2%


22 February 2016 3

Fig 2 Weekly, QTD and YTD global stock returns for Seniors, Royalties/Streamers and Intermediates


SENIORS

Royalties/Streamers

INTERMEDIATES

(13%)

(8%)

(8%)

(7%)

(4%)

(2%)

(2%)

(2%)

(2%)

(2%)

0%

2%

3%

6%

6%

(15

%)

(10

%)

(5%

)

0%

5%

10

%

GFI SJ

ANG SJ

ELD CN

SGL SJ

AEM CN

NCM AU

K CN

Median

Average

G CN

YRI CN

ABX CN

RRS LN

601899 CH

FRES LN

Weekly Return

(9%)

(2%)

23%

31%

33%

35%

42%

44%

44%

44%

53%

57%

62%

69%

105%

(20

%)

0%

20

%

40

%

60

%

80

%

10

0%

12

0%

601899 CH

ELD CN

NCM AU

AEM CN

G CN

FRES LN

Average

GFI SJ

Median

YRI CN

RRS LN

ANG SJ

K CN

ABX CN

SGL SJ

QTD Return

(9%)

(2%)

23%

31%

33%

35%

42%

44%

44%

44%

53%

57%

62%

69%

105%

(20

%)

0%

20

%

40

%

60

%

80

%

10

0%

12

0%

601899 CH

ELD CN

NCM AU

AEM CN

G CN

FRES LN

Average

GFI SJ

Median

YRI CN

RRS LN

ANG SJ

K CN

ABX CN

SGL SJ

YTD Return

(15%)

(11%)

(9%)

(8%)

(6%)

(5%)

(5%)

(2%)

(2%)

(2%)

(2%)

(2%)

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

6%

7%

7%

(20

%)

(15

%)

(10

%)

(5%

)

0%

5%

10

%

P CN

HAR SJ

RRL AU

EVN AU

IGO AU

OGC CN

ACA LN

AGI CN

Average

TXG CN

AQG AU

Median

DGC CN

IMG CN

SMF CN

NST AU

THO CN

BTO CN

CEY LN

KGI CN

Weekly Return

(36%)

4%

6%

7%

9%

10%

21%

25%

29%

29%

29%

30%

32%

33%

37%

39%

49%

51%

72%

152%

(50

%)

0%

50

%

10

0%

15

0%

20

0%

P CN

THO CN

IGO AU

BTO CN

RRL AU

AQG AU

SMF CN

TXG CN

ACA LN

Median

AGI CN

EVN AU

Average

CEY LN

OGC CN

NST AU

DGC CN

KGI CN

IMG CN

HAR SJ

QTD Return

(36%)

4%

6%

7%

9%

10%

21%

25%

29%

29%

29%

30%

32%

33%

37%

39%

49%

51%

72%

152%

(50

%)

0%

50

%

10

0%

15

0%

20

0%

P CN

THO CN

IGO AU

BTO CN

RRL AU

AQG AU

SMF CN

TXG CN

ACA LN

Median

AGI CN

EVN AU

Average

CEY LN

OGC CN

NST AU

DGC CN

KGI CN

IMG CN

HAR SJ

YTD Return

(0%)

1%

2%

3%

3%

3%

4%

(1%

)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

APF LN

SLW CN

Average

RGL CN

AMI CN

Median

FNV CN

Weekly Return

(5%)

7%

14%

19%

19%

24%

25%

(10

%)

(5%

)

0%

5%

10

%

15

%

20

%

25

%

30

%

APF LN

AMI CN

Average

RGL CN

Median

FNV CN

SLW CN

QTD Return

(5%)

7%

14%

19%

19%

24%

25%

(10

%)

(5%

)

0%

5%

10

%

15

%

20

%

25

%

30

%

APF LN

AMI CN

Average

RGL CN

Median

FNV CN

SLW CN

YTD Return


22 February 2016 4

Fig 3 Weekly, QTD and YTD global stock returns for Junior Producers and Explorers/Developers


JUNIORS

EXPLORERS & DEVELOPERS

(4%)

(3%)

(2%)

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

4%

8%

33%

(10

%)

(5%

)

0%

5%

10

%

15

%

20

%

25

%

30

%

35

%

40

%

SBM AU

PAF LN

DRM AU

PRU AU

RIC CN

Median

MML AU

SAR AU

TGZ CN

Average

KCN AU

BDR AU

Weekly Return

9%

16%

19%

34%

37%

43%

43%

49%

56%

67%

69%

71%

0%

10

%

20

%

30

%

40

%

50

%

60

%

70

%

80

%

PRU AU

TGZ CN

SBM AU

KCN AU

DRM AU

Average

Median

RIC CN

SAR AU

MML AU

PAF LN

BDR AU

QTD Return

9%

16%

19%

34%

37%

43%

43%

49%

56%

67%

69%

71%

0%

10

%

20

%

30

%

40

%

50

%

60

%

70

%

80

%

PRU AU

TGZ CN

SBM AU

KCN AU

DRM AU

Average

Median

RIC CN

SAR AU

MML AU

PAF LN

BDR AU

YTD Return

(8%)

(6%)

(5%)

(0%)

0%

1%

3%

6%

6%

7%

(10

%)

(8%

)

(6%

)

(4%

)

(2%

)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

ER CN

PRB CN

MAX CN

GOR AU

Average

Median

MAG CN

ATC CN

PLG CN

ICG CN

Weekly Return

(6%)

9%

10%

14%

15%

16%

18%

19%

21%

86%

(20

%)

0%

20

%

40

%

60

%

80

%

10

0%

PRB CN

ER CN

PLG CN

MAG CN

Median

MAX CN

ICG CN

GOR AU

Average

ATC CN

QTD Return

(6%)

9%

10%

14%

15%

16%

18%

19%

21%

86%

(20

%)

0%

20

%

40

%

60

%

80

%

10

0%

PRB CN

ER CN

PLG CN

MAG CN

Median

MAX CN

ICG CN

GOR AU

Average

ATC CN

YTD Return


22 February 2016 5

Fig 4 Macquarie precious metals matrix – 3-6 month view

Source: Macquarie Research, February 2016

Fig 5 Gold price chart and forecasts (US$/oz)

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2016

Precious Metals 3-6 month view Supply Growth Demand Inventory

Platinum Stable Strong Stable MixedWeak European demand to weigh until QE positive impact

shows up in data.

Palladium Stable Strong Good MixedS&D still points to higher commodity prices but palladium always

vulnerable to wider market sell-off.

Silver Stable Stable Weak High Silver needs to play some catch up with gold.

Gold Stable Stable Stable HighGold's strong start to 2015 on financial system in flux but strong

US economy to restore some calm.

800

900

1,000

1,100

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1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Macquarie Valuation Deck (2015 $) Macquarie Deck Forward Curve (Jan 18, 2015)

Forecast

Gold

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Macquarie Deck (2015 $) Macquarie Deck Forward Curve (Jan 18, 2015)

Forecast

Silver


22 February 2016 6

Fig 6 Gold price, various currencies, 1yr ago = 100 Fig 7 Gold ETF inflows (outflows), tonnes/week

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2016 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2016

Fig 8 Gold/silver ratio (no oz silver = 1oz of gold) Fig 9 Silver ETF inflows (outflows), tonnes/week



Fig 10 Gold price v US 2yr yield, % Fig 11 Global equity prices (USD), start 2016 = 100

Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Research, February 2016 Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Research, February 2016

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16

AUD NZD CAD

ZAR USD

(35)

(25)

(15)

(5)

5

15

25

35

45

55


3m moving average

0

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30

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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3m moving average


22 February 2016 7

Fig 12 Global production and cost metrics

NA: Not available NMF: Not meaningful Source: Macquarie Research, February 2016

Company 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Seniors

Goldcorp 3,400 3,246 3,431 577 550 521 1,143 764 826 858 828 772

Zijin Mining (A-Share) NA NA NA NA NA NA 1,069 1,184 1,278 NA NA NA

Barrick Gold 5,966 5,693 5,645 594 591 582 1,763 1,564 1,498 842 821 815

Fresnillo 1,284 1,620 1,834 NA NA NA 564 561 376 631 518 455

Newcrest Mining 2,423 2,506 2,528 NA NA NA 513 523 507 782 770 709

Randgold Resources 1,172 1,186 1,149 650 636 599 251 145 82 862 843 819

Agnico Eagle Mines 1,664 1,619 1,618 560 509 465 527 451 461 796 776 729

AngloGold Ashanti 3,893 3,836 3,770 724 681 737 911 840 836 948 904 975

Sibanye Gold 1,568 1,632 1,606 807 708 809 215 245 263 991 878 996

Eldorado Gold 724 602 767 593 624 572 382 244 449 967 882 839

Kinross Gold 2,618 2,917 2,918 708 723 723 630 408 383 985 925 916

Gold Fields 2,214 2,032 2,123 666 577 596 714 591 638 1,002 900 928

Yamana Gold 1,273 1,257 1,349 592 579 587 409 500 588 852 852 839

Seniors Average 647 618 619 876 825 816

Seniors Median 622 608 592 860 847 829

Intermediates

Tahoe Resources 181 255 291 489 436 399 135 175 84 818 827 738

Detour Gold 505 577 609 744 563 555 100 87 80 1,024 746 733

Evolution Mining 438 801 831 595 509 443 122 93 52 841 673 596

Acacia Mining NA NA NA NA NA NA 188 195 175 NA NA NA

Northern Star Resources 573 560 599 NA NA NA 146 111 148 899 748 675

Independence Group NL 149 138 124 445 470 495 35 30 29 679 632 658

Centamin 441 478 497 707 682 640 73 80 91 982 960 872

B2Gold 493 518 600 694 587 577 267 365 241 949 847 784

OceanaGold Corporation 412 375 602 749 595 582 92 290 161 743 860 773

Alamos Gold 380 393 468 771 698 717 114 163 218 1,084 998 924

IAMGOLD Corp 803 797 735 827 825 857 246 250 170 1,187 1,012 1,113

Regis Resources 310 303 321 690 574 433 15 8 6 850 717 551

Semafo 260 242 246 495 554 505 75 87 175 799 838 761

Torex Gold Resources 5 243 370 NA 829 585 316 65 34 NA 919 707

Alacer Gold 164 129 133 444 595 546 81 329 217 615 808 743

Primero Mining 221 225 260 566 455 321 85 90 71 953 899 685

Kirkland Lake Gold 151 274 306 658 556 512 18 94 96 971 812 736

Harmony Gold Mining Co 1,077 977 1,023 1,004 843 873 178 148 196 1,245 1,013 1,044

Intermediates Average 659 611 565 915 842 770

Intermediates Median 690 580 551 924 838 738

Juniors

St Barbara 377 379 345 682 520 487 34 33 28 864 668 621

Saracen Mineral Holdings 168 186 287 734 562 551 26 63 22 789 552 631

Pan African Resources 172 194 191 1,002 752 806 28 21 22 808 866 987

Richmont Mines 98 95 96 779 620 614 47 70 65 1,040 868 843

Teranga Gold 192 239 243 616 630 632 52 35 30 913 854 852

Perseus Mining 212 171 214 767 1,087 1,104 24 30 23 1,007 1,299 1,308

Doray Minerals 89 88 138 NA NA NA 27 96 52 NA NA NA

Kingsgate Consolidated 205 170 127 749 454 615 25 30 26 1,015 729 951

Beadell Resources 122 162 162 737 529 577 19 9 8 857 730 887

Medusa Mining 98 123 135 387 428 408 67 74 78 1,065 1,024 986

Juniors Average 717 620 644 929 843 896

Juniors Median 737 562 614 913 854 887

Overall Average (Ex. Royalties) 671 615 601 906 837 815

Overall Median (Ex. Royalties) 686 587 582 899 845 799

Royalties/Streamers

Franco-Nevada 303 277 282 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Silver Wheaton 221 284 264 301 312 288 903 - 230 379 420 391

Royal Gold 247 295 299 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Anglo Pacific Group 3 5 6 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

AuRico Metals 3 8 10 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Royalties/Streamers Average NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF

Royalties/Streamers Median NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF NMF

*AISC is operating costs + exploration + corporate G&A + sustaining capex

Royalties/Streamers report production on GEO-basis

Au Production (000 oz) Operating Cash Costs (US$/oz) Total Capex (US$m) AISC (US$/oz)*


22 February 2016 8

Fig 13 Global financial summary

NA: Not available NMF: Not meaningful (negative or larger than 50) Multiples calculated based on US$ share price and US$ estimates, converted at FX rate prevalent at time of calculations Source: Thomson ONE, Macquarie Research, February 2016

Company NAV P/NAV

Name US$/sh x Curr. EPS P/E CFPS P/CFPS EBITDA (m) EV/EBITDA FCF/sh FCF Yield

Seniors

Goldcorp 16.51 0.94x USD 0.04 NMF 1.87 8.3x 1,684 9.3x 0.95 6.2%

Zijin Mining (A-Share) 0.74 0.65x CNY 0.12 16.0x - NMF 6,168 7.5x 0.13 6.7%

Barrick Gold 7.42 1.69x USD 0.28 44.2x 1.51 8.3x 2,890 9.0x 0.16 1.3%

Fresnillo - CHECK USD 0.17 NMF 0.62 22.3x 644 15.8x 0.29 2.1%

Newcrest Mining 10.02 1.14x USD 0.31 37.3x 1.29 8.9x 1,235 9.3x 0.40 3.5%

Randgold Resources - CHECK USD 3.02 30.6x 5.25 17.6x 490 17.2x 4.08 4.4%

Agnico Eagle Mines 26.02 1.33x USD 0.46 NMF 3.15 11.0x 796 10.8x 1.07 3.1%

AngloGold Ashanti 6.16 1.71x USD 0.49 21.6x 2.60 4.1x 1,356 4.5x 1.05 9.9%

Sibanye Gold 1.49 1.98x ZAR 2.30 20.4x 6.55 7.2x 7,467 5.8x 2.45 5.2%

Eldorado Gold 3.84 0.76x USD (0.02) NMF 0.28 10.4x 235 11.2x (0.06) -2.0%

Kinross Gold 1.58 1.88x USD (0.08) NMF 0.69 4.3x 923 4.8x 0.25 8.6%

Gold Fields 2.29 1.67x USD 0.11 33.9x 1.01 3.8x 903 4.5x 0.22 5.8%

Yamana Gold 2.07 1.30x USD (0.02) NMF 0.57 4.7x 636 6.5x 0.04 1.5%

Seniors Average 1.37x 29.1x 9.2x 8.9x 4.3%

Seniors Median 1.33x 30.6x 8.3x 9.0x 4.4%

Royalties/Streamers

Franco-Nevada 34.73 1.65x USD 0.49 NMF 1.94 29.6x 340 24.8x 0.03 0.1%

Silver Wheaton 15.00 1.04x USD 0.47 33.5x 1.23 12.7x 525 13.2x 1.23 7.9%

Royal Gold 42.50 1.02x USD 1.17 37.1x 2.81 15.5x 268 13.1x 1.93 4.4%

Anglo Pacific Group 1.06 0.76x GBP 0.01 49.5x 0.04 14.8x 7 12.9x 0.01 2.2%

AuRico Metals 0.77 0.60x USD 0.01 31.3x 0.02 26.6x 3 22.9x (0.03) -5.5%

Royalties/Streamers Average 1.01x 37.8x 19.8x 17.4x 1.8%

Royalties/Streamers Median 1.02x 35.3x 15.5x 13.2x 2.2%

Intermediates

Tahoe Resources 13.59 0.67x USD 0.44 20.5x 0.80 11.3x 220 8.9x 0.04 0.5%

Detour Gold 22.28 0.70x USD 0.47 33.3x 1.61 9.7x 298 10.2x 1.11 7.1%

Evolution Mining 1.21 1.08x AUD 0.19 9.8x 0.40 4.5x 640 3.9x 0.18 9.9%

Acacia Mining - CHECK USD 0.23 14.4x 0.63 5.4x 322 NMF 0.31 9.2%

Northern Star Resources 2.23 1.24x AUD 0.26 15.0x 0.55 7.1x 393 5.5x 0.30 7.7%

Independence Group NL 2.36 0.82x AUD 0.08 35.3x 0.31 8.7x 166 9.0x 0.10 3.8%

Centamin - CHECK USD 0.06 22.3x 0.17 7.2x 200 5.8x 0.07 5.8%

B2Gold 1.99 0.55x USD 0.05 23.0x 0.19 5.8x 217 6.3x (0.21) -18.9%

OceanaGold Corporation 3.14 0.84x USD 0.02 NMF 0.26 9.9x 180 9.5x (0.22) -8.2%

Alamos Gold 7.85 0.55x USD (0.02) NMF 0.57 7.5x 144 7.9x (0.06) -1.3%

IAMGOLD Corp 2.21 1.12x USD (0.23) NMF 0.34 7.3x 232 4.3x (0.30) -12.1%

Regis Resources 1.66 1.09x AUD 0.16 15.8x 0.29 8.7x 177 7.0x 0.20 8.1%

Semafo 3.78 0.82x USD 0.11 28.6x 0.38 8.1x 129 7.2x 0.09 2.8%

Torex Gold Resources 2.04 0.56x CAD (0.03) NMF 0.04 43.9x 65 24.4x 0.01 0.7%

Alacer Gold 1.82 1.07x USD 0.05 38.3x 0.32 6.1x 92 3.6x 0.09 4.9%

Primero Mining 3.54 0.41x USD 0.02 NMF 0.50 2.9x 122 2.5x (0.05) -3.4%

Kirkland Lake Gold 7.95 0.67x CAD 1.06 6.9x 1.54 3.5x 228 2.7x 0.69 13.0%

Harmony Gold Mining Co 4.65 0.53x ZAR 1.85 21.3x 6.81 5.8x 3,250 5.9x 4.72 12.0%

Intermediates Average 0.79x 21.9x 9.1x 7.3x 2.3%

Intermediates Median 0.76x 21.3x 7.2x 6.3x 4.3%

Juniors

St Barbara 1.30 0.94x AUD 0.24 7.1x 0.38 4.5x 276 4.0x 0.37 21.9%

Saracen Mineral Holdings 0.55 1.23x AUD 0.03 36.5x 0.07 12.9x 68 10.5x 0.12 12.6%

Pan African Resources 0.25 0.77x GBP 0.01 10.6x 0.02 7.6x 42 5.9x 0.01 7.6%

Richmont Mines 7.23 0.66x CAD 0.68 9.7x 0.93 5.2x 67 4.8x (0.26) -5.5%

Teranga Gold 0.82 0.50x USD 0.03 14.6x 0.13 3.1x 81 2.1x 0.05 11.0%

Perseus Mining 0.18 1.42x AUD (0.05) NMF 0.05 7.0x 18 3.9x (0.08) -21.5%

Doray Minerals 0.43 1.33x AUD 0.06 13.5x 0.21 3.7x 75 3.2x 0.07 9.0%

Kingsgate Consolidated 0.15 2.36x AUD (0.03) NMF 0.22 2.2x 57 3.4x 0.09 18.7%

Beadell Resources 0.08 2.18x AUD 0.03 8.3x 0.07 3.7x 79 3.3x 0.07 30.1%

Medusa Mining 0.22 2.00x USD 0.19 2.3x 0.37 1.2x 78 1.1x 0.22 51.3%

Juniors Average 1.34x 12.8x 5.1x 4.2x 13.5%

Juniors Median 1.28x 10.2x 4.1x 3.7x 11.8%

Producers Average 1.10x 23.2x 9.4x 8.2x 5.3%

Producers Median 1.03x 21.4x 7.3x 6.5x 5.1%

* Macquarie commodity price forecast in real dollars: 2015=$1139/oz, 2016=$1094/oz, 2017=$1134/oz, 2018=$1193/oz, 2019=$1236/oz, and LT=$1250/oz

** Macquarie commodity price forecasts in nominal dollars: 2015=$1160/oz, 2016=$1144/oz, 2017=$1219/oz, 2018=$1319/oz, 2019=$1400/oz, and LT=$1445/oz

Valuation Curve* Macquarie Commodity Price Forecasts**

2016E 2016E 2016E 2016E

Ma

cq

ua

rie W

ea

lth M

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t A

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lian G

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Min

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201

6

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Fig 14 Global financial metrics and ratios based on Macquarie’s commodity price forecasts

Multiples calculated based on US$ share price and US$ estimates, converted at FX rate prevalent at time of the time NMF: negative or larger than 50 Source: Thomson ONE, Macquarie Research, February 2016

Company

Name Curr. 2015A 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015A 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015A 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Seniors

Goldcorp USD 0.02 0.04 0.46 NMF NMF 33.9x 1.58 1.87 2.16 9.8x 8.3x 7.2x 1,603 1,684 2,041 9.7x 9.3x 7.6x 0.19 0.95 1.16 1.2% 6.2% 7.5%

Zijin Mining (A-Share) CNY 0.10 0.12 0.16 19.8x 16.0x 11.7x - - - NMF NMF NMF 4,974 6,168 8,441 9.4x 7.5x 5.5x 0.09 0.13 0.21 4.5% 6.7% 11.0%

Barrick Gold USD 0.29 0.28 0.46 43.6x 44.2x 27.5x 2.41 1.51 1.85 5.2x 8.3x 6.8x 3,518 2,890 3,430 7.4x 9.0x 7.6x 0.38 0.16 0.56 3.0% 1.3% 4.5%

Fresnillo USD 0.12 0.17 0.39 NMF NMF 36.0x 0.53 0.62 0.97 26.2x 22.3x 14.4x 520 644 990 19.6x 15.8x 10.3x 0.18 0.29 0.50 1.3% 2.1% 3.6%

Newcrest Mining USD 0.55 0.31 0.74 20.7x 37.3x 15.4x 1.36 1.29 1.61 8.4x 8.9x 7.1x 1,415 1,235 1,593 8.1x 9.3x 7.2x 1.16 0.40 0.92 10.1% 3.5% 8.1%

Randgold Resources USD 2.00 3.02 4.04 46.2x 30.6x 22.9x 3.86 5.25 6.39 24.0x 17.6x 14.5x 339 490 602 24.9x 17.2x 14.0x 3.64 4.08 5.26 3.9% 4.4% 5.7%

Agnico Eagle Mines USD 0.41 0.46 1.32 NMF NMF 26.2x 3.23 3.15 3.83 10.7x 11.0x 9.0x 746 796 1,018 11.6x 10.8x 8.5x 0.81 1.07 1.71 2.3% 3.1% 4.9%

AngloGold Ashanti USD 0.08 0.49 0.76 NMF 21.6x 13.8x 2.11 2.60 2.99 5.0x 4.1x 3.5x 1,124 1,356 1,546 5.4x 4.5x 4.0x 1.06 1.05 1.18 10.1% 9.9% 11.2%

Sibanye Gold ZAR 1.17 2.30 1.70 40.2x 20.4x 27.6x 4.88 6.55 6.18 9.6x 7.2x 7.6x 5,625 7,467 7,152 7.7x 5.8x 6.1x 1.50 2.45 2.27 3.2% 5.2% 4.8%

Eldorado Gold USD 0.03 (0.02) 0.14 NMF NMF 21.0x 0.28 0.28 0.53 10.4x 10.4x 5.5x 289 235 426 9.1x 11.2x 6.1x (0.25) (0.06) (0.09) -8.6% -2.0% -3.2%

Kinross Gold USD (0.08) (0.08) 0.14 NMF NMF 20.9x 0.63 0.69 0.94 4.7x 4.3x 3.2x 834 923 1,212 5.3x 4.8x 3.7x 0.00 0.25 0.45 0.1% 8.6% 15.3%

Gold Fields USD 0.08 0.11 0.21 46.4x 33.9x 18.5x 0.90 1.01 1.16 4.2x 3.8x 3.3x 809 903 1,051 5.1x 4.5x 3.9x 0.11 0.22 0.27 2.8% 5.8% 7.0%

Yamana Gold USD (0.07) (0.02) 0.13 NMF NMF 21.1x 0.55 0.57 0.69 4.9x 4.7x 3.9x 572 636 793 7.2x 6.5x 5.2x 0.12 0.04 0.07 4.3% 1.5% 2.5%

Seniors Average 36.1x 29.1x 22.8x 10.3x 9.2x 7.2x 10.0x 8.9x 6.9x 2.9% 4.3% 6.4%

Seniors Median 41.9x 30.6x 21.1x 9.0x 8.3x 6.9x 8.1x 9.0x 6.1x 3.0% 4.4% 5.7%

Royalties/Streamers

Franco-Nevada USD 0.55 0.49 0.68 NMF NMF NMF 1.96 1.94 2.16 29.2x 29.6x 26.5x 324 340 377 26.0x 24.8x 22.3x (4.64) 0.03 0.13 -8.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Silver Wheaton USD 0.50 0.47 0.74 31.0x 33.5x 21.2x 1.05 1.23 1.43 14.9x 12.7x 10.9x 401 525 604 17.3x 13.2x 11.5x (1.23) 1.23 0.86 -7.9% 7.9% 5.5%

Royal Gold USD 1.24 1.17 1.72 35.2x 37.1x 25.3x 2.49 2.81 4.11 17.5x 15.5x 10.6x 209 268 322 16.8x 13.1x 10.9x (18.46) 1.93 4.09 -42.4% 4.4% 9.4%

Anglo Pacific Group GBP (0.05) 0.01 0.02 NMF 49.5x 23.0x 0.05 0.04 0.05 11.4x 14.8x 10.7x 5 7 10 18.3x 12.9x 8.9x (0.01) 0.01 0.03 -1.0% 2.2% 4.7%

AuRico Metals USD (0.04) 0.01 0.03 NMF 31.3x 16.7x (0.07) 0.02 0.03 NMF 26.6x 15.3x (5) 3 5 NMF 22.9x 13.0x (0.13) (0.03) 0.02 -27.9% -5.5% 4.3%

Royalties/Streamers Average 33.1x 37.8x 21.6x 18.3x 19.8x 14.8x 19.6x 17.4x 13.3x -17.5% 1.8% 4.8%

Royalties/Streamers Median 33.1x 35.3x 22.1x 16.2x 15.5x 10.9x 17.8x 13.2x 11.5x -8.1% 2.2% 4.7%

Intermediates

Tahoe Resources USD 0.31 0.44 0.83 29.0x 20.5x 10.9x 0.71 0.80 1.23 12.7x 11.3x 7.4x 165 220 325 11.9x 8.9x 6.0x 0.07 0.04 0.86 0.8% 0.5% 9.5%

Detour Gold USD (0.15) 0.47 1.02 NMF 33.3x 15.4x 0.97 1.61 2.09 16.2x 9.7x 7.5x 144 298 376 21.1x 10.2x 8.1x 0.38 1.11 1.63 2.4% 7.1% 10.4%

Evolution Mining AUD 0.14 0.19 0.24 13.1x 9.8x 7.4x 0.35 0.40 0.47 5.2x 4.5x 3.9x 287 640 861 8.6x 3.9x 2.9x 0.18 0.18 0.35 10.1% 9.9% 19.4%

Acacia Mining USD 0.06 0.23 0.29 NMF 14.4x 11.6x 0.34 0.63 0.67 10.0x 5.4x 5.0x 178 322 347 NMF NMF NMF 0.15 0.31 0.29 4.4% 9.2% 8.6%

Northern Star Resources AUD 0.18 0.26 0.46 21.1x 15.0x 8.4x 0.48 0.55 0.78 8.1x 7.1x 5.0x 331 393 582 6.6x 5.5x 3.7x 0.32 0.30 0.45 8.4% 7.7% 11.6%

Independence Group NL AUD 0.31 0.08 0.16 8.7x 35.3x 17.2x 0.83 0.31 0.51 3.2x 8.7x 5.3x 231 166 321 6.5x 9.0x 4.7x 0.43 0.10 0.20 16.0% 3.8% 7.6%

Centamin USD 0.06 0.06 0.05 21.3x 22.3x 26.4x 0.15 0.17 0.25 8.1x 7.2x 5.1x 151 200 283 7.7x 5.8x 4.1x 0.07 0.07 0.14 5.3% 5.8% 11.1%

B2Gold USD (0.01) 0.05 0.13 NMF 23.0x 8.5x 0.16 0.19 0.28 6.9x 5.8x 3.9x 164 217 316 8.3x 6.3x 4.3x (0.12) (0.21) 0.02 -11.0% -18.9% 2.2%

OceanaGold Corporation USD 0.14 0.02 0.22 18.9x NMF 11.7x 0.60 0.26 0.54 4.4x 9.9x 4.9x 199 180 364 8.6x 9.5x 4.7x (0.16) (0.22) 0.27 -5.9% -8.2% 10.4%

Alamos Gold USD (0.21) (0.02) 0.13 NMF NMF 32.7x 0.24 0.57 0.74 17.9x 7.5x 5.8x 53 144 204 21.4x 7.9x 5.6x (0.35) (0.06) (0.09) -8.3% -1.3% -2.2%

IAMGOLD Corp USD (0.41) (0.23) (0.27) NMF NMF NMF 0.39 0.34 0.37 6.3x 7.3x 6.7x 213 232 237 4.7x 4.3x 4.2x (0.24) (0.30) (0.06) -9.7% -12.1% -2.6%

Regis Resources AUD 0.17 0.16 0.33 14.5x 15.8x 7.6x 0.28 0.29 0.48 9.0x 8.7x 5.3x 182 177 306 6.8x 7.0x 4.0x 0.18 0.20 0.32 7.1% 8.1% 12.8%

Semafo USD 0.17 0.11 0.17 18.1x 28.6x 18.4x 0.50 0.38 0.47 6.2x 8.1x 6.5x 160 129 162 5.8x 7.2x 5.7x 0.24 0.09 (0.12) 7.7% 2.8% -3.8%

Torex Gold Resources CAD (0.04) (0.03) 0.09 NMF NMF 17.8x (0.04) 0.04 0.20 NMF 43.9x 7.9x (11) 65 214 NMF 24.4x 7.4x (0.03) 0.01 0.13 -2.2% 0.7% 8.4%

Alacer Gold USD 0.16 0.05 0.08 12.2x 38.3x 24.9x 0.40 0.32 0.31 4.9x 6.1x 6.2x 116 92 107 2.9x 3.6x 3.1x 0.18 0.09 0.15 9.5% 4.9% 7.8%

Primero Mining USD 0.04 0.02 0.24 36.1x NMF 6.0x 0.51 0.50 0.80 2.8x 2.9x 1.8x 97 122 199 3.2x 2.5x 1.5x (0.06) (0.05) 0.36 -3.9% -3.4% 24.8%

Kirkland Lake Gold CAD 0.26 1.06 1.61 28.7x 6.9x 4.6x 0.93 1.54 2.17 5.7x 3.5x 2.4x 78 228 333 8.0x 2.7x 1.9x 0.72 0.69 1.34 13.5% 13.0% 25.1%

Harmony Gold Mining Co ZAR (1.89) 1.85 4.00 NMF 21.3x 9.8x 3.81 6.81 10.02 10.3x 5.8x 3.9x 1,231 3,250 4,853 15.6x 5.9x 4.0x (1.06) 4.72 5.81 -2.7% 12.0% 14.8%

Intermediates Average 20.1x 21.9x 14.1x 8.1x 9.1x 5.2x 9.2x 7.3x 4.5x 2.3% 2.3% 9.8%

Intermediates Median 18.9x 21.3x 11.6x 6.9x 7.2x 5.2x 7.9x 6.3x 4.2x 3.4% 4.3% 9.9%

Juniors

St Barbara AUD 0.10 0.24 0.35 16.4x 7.1x 4.9x 0.29 0.38 0.47 5.9x 4.5x 3.6x 188 276 341 5.9x 4.0x 3.3x 0.13 0.37 0.55 7.8% 21.9% 32.1%

Saracen Mineral Holdings AUD 0.01 0.03 0.09 NMF 36.5x 10.0x 0.08 0.07 0.17 12.4x 12.9x 5.5x 66 68 171 10.6x 10.5x 4.1x 0.02 0.12 0.13 2.1% 12.6% 13.9%

Pan African Resources GBP 0.01 0.01 0.01 20.2x 10.6x 11.0x 0.01 0.02 0.02 10.8x 7.6x 7.6x 28 42 42 8.7x 5.9x 5.9x (0.01) 0.01 0.01 -4.3% 7.6% 9.8%

Richmont Mines CAD 0.23 0.68 0.84 29.0x 9.7x 7.9x 0.67 0.93 1.17 7.1x 5.2x 4.1x 37 67 85 8.6x 4.8x 3.8x (0.14) (0.26) 0.05 -3.0% -5.5% 1.1%

Teranga Gold USD 0.06 0.03 0.05 6.5x 14.6x 7.8x 0.16 0.13 0.17 2.6x 3.1x 2.4x 84 81 100 2.0x 2.1x 1.7x 0.02 0.05 0.10 3.8% 11.0% 23.7%

Perseus Mining AUD 0.07 (0.05) (0.09) 5.2x NMF NMF 0.18 0.05 0.00 2.0x 7.0x NMF 121 18 (28) 0.6x 3.9x NMF 0.06 (0.08) (0.11) 17.1% -21.5% -30.8%

Doray Minerals AUD 0.09 0.06 0.19 8.8x 13.5x 4.2x 0.29 0.21 0.41 2.8x 3.7x 1.9x 67 75 157 3.6x 3.2x 1.6x 0.10 0.07 0.19 12.3% 9.0% 23.4%

Kingsgate Consolidated AUD 0.01 (0.03) 0.03 NMF NMF 15.7x 0.25 0.22 0.31 2.0x 2.2x 1.6x 71 57 78 2.7x 3.4x 2.5x 0.15 0.09 0.07 31.1% 18.7% 14.9%

Beadell Resources AUD (0.02) 0.03 0.02 NMF 8.3x 12.0x 0.01 0.07 0.06 25.5x 3.7x 4.0x 27 79 60 9.4x 3.3x 4.3x 0.05 0.07 0.04 21.2% 30.1% 15.2%

Medusa Mining USD 0.20 0.19 0.22 2.2x 2.3x 1.9x 0.35 0.37 0.44 1.2x 1.2x 1.0x 73 78 91 1.2x 1.1x 0.9x 0.16 0.22 0.22 37.1% 51.3% 49.9%

Juniors Average 12.6x 12.8x 8.4x 7.2x 5.1x 3.5x 5.3x 4.2x 3.1x 12.5% 13.5% 15.3%

Juniors Median 8.8x 10.2x 7.9x 4.4x 4.1x 3.6x 4.8x 3.7x 3.3x 10.1% 11.8% 15.0%

Producers Average 22.8x 23.2x 16.2x 9.5x 9.4x 6.5x 9.5x 8.2x 5.9x 2.6% 5.3% 9.5%

Producers Median 20.5x 21.4x 15.4x 8.1x 7.3x 5.4x 8.1x 6.5x 4.7x 2.9% 5.1% 8.5%

** Macquarie commodity price forecasts in nominal dollars: 2015=$1160/oz, 2016=$1144/oz, 2017=$1219/oz, 2018=$1319/oz, 2019=$1400/oz, and LT=$1445/oz

FCF/sh FCF YieldEPS P/E CFPS P/CFPS EBITDA (m) EV/EBITDA

Macquarie Commodity Price Forecasts**


22 February 2016 10

Fig 15 M&A transactions since January 1, 2014

Source: Company reports, Thomson ONE, Macquarie Research, February 2016

Announcement

DateTarget Name Acquirer Name

Announced

Value (US$m)

Deal

Premium

(Last Px)

Deal Premium

(20 VWAP)

Resource (m

oz AuEq)

EV/Reserve

(US$/oz)

EV/Resource

(US$/oz)Gold Price

Producers

8-Feb-16 Lake Shore Gold (LSG) Tahoe Resources $680 15.0% 24.0% 5.1 $884 $134 $1,198

16-Nov-15 St. Andrew Goldfields (SAS) Kirkland Lake $129 n/a 46.0% 2.7 $155 $48 $1,084

17-Dec-15 Rice Lake Mine Klondex Mines $32 n/a n/a 0.6 $70 $50 $1,065

12-Nov-15 Spring Valley/Ruby Hill (ABX) Waterton Precious

Metals Fund

$110 n/a n/a 6.8 $4,583 $16 $1,085

12-Nov-15 Bald Mt/Round Mt (ABX) Kinross $610 n/a n/a 7.2 $297 $84 $1,085

30-Jul-15 Zaldivar (ABX) Antofagasta $1,005 n/a n/a 15.4 $83 $65 $1,088

27-Jul-15 Silvercrest Mines First Majestic $119 35.0% 37.0% 4.6 $218 $26 $1,098

8-Jun-15 CC&V (ANG) Newmont Mining $820 n/a n/a 10.0 $207 $82 $1,174

26-May-15 Porgera (ABX) Zijin Mining $298 n/a n/a 9.2 $198 $65 $1,207

24-May-15 Cowal Mine (ABX) Evolution Mining $550 n/a n/a 3.4 $354 $160 $1,205

13-Apr-15 AuRico Alamos Gold $1,500 0.0% 0.0% 12.7 $187 $118 $1,198

4-Jun-14 Elgin Mining Mandalay Resources $70 85.0% 53.0% 1.8 $201 $37 $1,242

12-May-14 Jundee (NEM) Northern Star $83 n/a n/a 0.5 $201 $163 $1,300

24-Apr-14 Osisko Yamana & Agnico-Eagle $3,595 57.6% n/a 27.9 $356 $129 $1,303

24-Feb-14 Eastern Dragon (ELD) CDH $40 n/a n/a 0.1 $231 $493 $1,324

9-Feb-15 Rio Alto Tahoe Resources $1,120 22.1% 20.3% 7.7 $382 $145 $1,233

4-Feb-14 Marigold (G/ABX) Silver Standard $275 n/a n/a 2.5 $111 $41 $1,260

22-Jan-14 Kanowna (ABX) Northern Star $68 n/a n/a 1.2 $113 $56 $1,238

Average: $617 36% 30% 6.63 $491 $106 $1,188

Median: $287 29% 31% 4.84 $204 $74 $1,202

Explorers/Developers

20-Aug-15 King of the Hills/Kailis (SBM) Saracen Mineral $3 n/a n/a 0.4 - $8 $1,152

30-Jul-15 Romarco Oceana Gold $659 71.8% 72.7% 4.8 - $136 $1,096

9-Jun-15 OBM/EAG/RYG/CRG New Oban $46 n/a n/a 6.4 - $7 $1,178

24-Apr-15 Mega Precious Metals Yamana Gold $15 150.0% 150.0% 4.4 - $3 $1,193

19-Jan-15 Probe Goldcorp $442 49.0% 57.0% 4.4 - $101 $1,280

23-Dec-14 Murgor Resources Alexandria Minerals $3 50.0% 52.5% 0.4 - $8 $1,175

18-Dec-14 Caballo Blanco Timmins Gold $25 n/a n/a 1.0 $0 $25 $1,199

17-Dec-14 Paramount Gold & Silver Coeur Mining $154 43.9% n/a 3.5 $0 $44 $1,197

13-Oct-14 Orbis Semafo $139 54.8% n/a 2.6 $0 $53 $1,242

8-Oct-14 Chaparral Gold Goldrock/Waterton $19 19.6% n/a 1.7 $0 $11 $1,221

3-Sep-14 Cayden Resources Agnico-Eagle $146 42.5% n/a n/a $0 $0 n/a

19-Aug-14 Chucapaca (GFI) Buenaventura $81 n/a n/a 6.1 - $26 $1,300

25-Jul-14 Kestanelik (Chesser) Nurol Holdings $40 n/a n/a 0.8 - $53 $1,307

3-Jun-14 Papillon Resources B2Gold $570 20.6% 42.4% 4.2 - $135 $1,244

21-May-14 Sulliden Gold Rio Alto Mining $273 43.4% 46.8% 2.4 $267 $112 $1,415

10-Feb-14 Navachab (ANG) QKR Corporation $110 n/a n/a 1.9 $57 $25 n/a

Average: $170 55% 70% 3.00 $46 $47 $1,228

Median: $96 46% 55% 2.62 $0 $26 $1,210

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Fig 16 Macquarie global precious metal equity research portal

Seniors Royalties/streamers Intermediates Juniors Explorers/developers

North America

Agnico-Eagle Franco-Nevada Alamos Gold Teranga Gold ATAC Resources

Barrick Silver Wheaton B2Gold Richmont Mines Eastmain Resources

Eldorado Royal Gold Detour Gold

MAG Silver

Goldcorp AuRico Metals IAMGOLD

Midas Gold

Kinross

OceanaGold

Pilot Gold

Yamana

Primero

Probe Metals

SEMAFO

Integra Gold

Tahoe Resources

Torex

Kirkland Lake Gold

Australia

Newcrest Mining

Alacer Gold St Barbara Gold Road Resources

Evolution Mining Saracen Mineral Hld

Independence Group NL Perseus Mining

Northern Star Resources Doray Minerals

Regis Resources Kingsgate Consolidated

Beadell Resources

Medusa Mining

United Kingdom

Fresnillo Anglo Pacific Group Centamin Pan African Resources

Randgold Resources

Acacia Mining

South Africa

AngloGold Ashanti

Sibanye Gold

Gold Fields

Harmony

China

Zijin Mining


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Fig 17 Most recent Macquarie global commodity & thematic research

Precious metal commodity research Date

Sense-checking the recent gold price rally: too little, or too much? 5-Feb-16

China's gold imports: very big, very puzzling

29-Jan-16

Gold and the brave new world of a Fed hiking cycle

17-Dec-15

Precious metal equity research Region Date

On the road to C$2,000/oz gold North America 22-Jan-16

4Q15 preview - out with a whimper North America 6-Jan-16

Global Gold Developers & Explorers - 2016: Picking the winners Global 18-Dec-15

Pain to intensify Australia 14-Dec-15

Positioning into Fed liftoff South Africa 22-Oct-15

UK Gold-Silver Equities - Riding the Wave United Kingdom 12-Feb-16



22 February 2016 13

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe

Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada

Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or

down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 December 2015

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 50.68% 61.04% 53.16% 47.90% 65.22% 43.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.33% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 31.51% 24.66% 34.18% 47.70% 29.71% 34.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.02% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 17.81% 14.30% 12.66% 4.39% 5.07% 21.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.78% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group’s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN 58 002 832 126, AFSL 238947, a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN 41 002 574 923 AFSL 237504 ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited (“MENZ”) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth’s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN 46 008 583 542, AFSL No. 237502) (“MBL”) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research, , is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary’s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return e-mail and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group‘s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures © Macquarie Group

australian gold miners - macquarie...newcrest mining ncm au hb 15.90 8,758 n aud 14.00 -11.9%...

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