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Australian crop report Prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural

and Resource Economics and Sciences

February 2014

No. 169

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Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en. The full licence terms are available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as ABARES 2014, Australian crop report, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, February, CC BY 3.0. Cataloguing data ABARES 2014, Australian crop report, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, February. ISSN 1447-8358 ISBN 978-1-74323-175-3 ABARES project 42072

Internet Australian crop report is available at daff.gov.au/abares/publications. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010 Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001 Email [email protected] Web daff.gov.au/abares Inquiries about the licence and any use of this document should be sent to [email protected]. The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

The next issue of Australian crop report is scheduled to be released on 11 June 2014. In the next issue: 2013–14 summer crop area estimates and production forecasts updated 2014–15 winter crop area and production forecasts Acknowledgements This report was prepared by Benjamin Agbenyegah, Amelia Brown, Beth Deards, Dean Mansfield, Matthew Miller, David Mobsby and Christopher Price.

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Australian crop report February 2014 ABARES

iii

Contents

Overview ............................................................................................................................................................ 2

Climatic and agronomic conditions ......................................................................................................... 4

Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state ...................................................................... 11

New South Wales ............................................................................................................................ 11

Queensland ....................................................................................................................................... 12

Victoria ............................................................................................................................................... 13

South Australia ................................................................................................................................ 14

Western Australia ........................................................................................................................... 14

Tables

Table 1 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia ........................................................... 2

Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia........................................................................................... 3

Table 3 Winter crop area, Australia ........................................................................................................ 3

Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts...................................................................................... 10

Table 5 Winter crop estimates, New South Wales, 2013–14 ..................................................... 12

Table 6 Summer crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2013–14 .................................................... 12

Table 7 Winter crop estimates, Queensland, 2013–14 ................................................................. 13

Table 8 Summer crop forecasts, Queensland, 2013–14 ............................................................... 13

Table 9 Winter crop estimates, Victoria, 2013–14 ......................................................................... 14

Table 10 Winter crop estimates, South Australia, 2013–14 ....................................................... 14

Table 11 Winter crop estimates, Western Australia, 2013–14 ................................................. 15

Table 12 Australian crop production................................................................................................... 16

Table 13 State production, major crops ............................................................................................. 17

Table 14 State production, other crops .............................................................................................. 18

Table 15 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, oilseeds and pulses ............................... 19

Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of coarse grains .......................................................... 20

Table 17 Grains and oilseeds prices ..................................................................................................... 21


iv

Maps

Map 1 Australian wheat growing regions ............................................................................................. 1

Map 2 Australian rainfall districts ........................................................................................................... 1

Map 3 Australian rainfall percentiles, 1 November 2013 to 31 January 2014 ....................... 4

Map 4 Australian rainfall percentiles, January 2014 ........................................................................ 5

Map 5 Maximum temperature anomalies, January 2014 ............................................................... 5

Map 6 Maximum temperature anomalies, 29 December 2013 to 4 January 2014 ............... 6

Map 7 Rainfall outlook, February to April 2014 ................................................................................. 6

Map 8 Upper layer soil moisture, January 2014 ................................................................................. 7

Map 9 Lower layer soil moisture, January 2014 ................................................................................ 8

Map 10 Forecast median shire sorghum yield ranked relative to all years (%) .................... 9


1

Map 1 Australian wheat growing regions

Source: ABARES

Map 2 Australian rainfall districts

Note: Displayed for major cropping districts only. See Table 1 for district names and observed district rainfall.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology


2

Overview Generally unfavourable seasonal conditions during the 2013–14 summer crop planting window are expected to result in a significant decline in summer crop production. There have been hot and dry seasonal conditions over the few past months in most summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland. The unfavourable seasonal conditions have limited the area planted to summer crops and reduced prospective yields of dryland crops. However, patchy rainfall in late January across the Liverpool Plains and the Darling Downs is expected to benefit development of later sown crops in these two regions. Additionally, recent rainfall in central Queensland is expected to encourage some further planting of summer crops in that region and support development of crops already in the ground.

The seasonal outlook for February to April 2014, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 13 January 2014, points to a roughly equal chance of receiving more or less than median rainfall across the summer cropping regions of northern New South Wales and Queensland.

The total area planted to summer crops is forecast to fall by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.15 million hectares and total production is forecast to fall by 25 per cent to 4 million tonnes. Falls in production are forecast for all major summer crops.

The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to decline by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to 492 000 hectares and production is forecast to decline by 36 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes.

The area planted to cotton (planted from September to mid-November) is estimated to have declined by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 392 000 hectares, largely reflecting a fall in the area planted to dryland cotton. However, because higher yielding irrigated cotton comprises a larger proportion of the total area planted to cotton than last year, it is assumed the average yield will rise by 4 per cent. Cotton production is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes of cottonseed and 940 000 tonnes of cotton lint.

The area planted to rice is forecast to fall by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 101 000 hectares. Rice production is forecast to decline by 22 per cent to 907 000 tonnes, assuming a return to average yields from the above average yields achieved in 2012–13.

Table 1 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia

Year New South Wales Queensland Australia

’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt ’000 ha kt

2002–03 518 1 575 541 1 231 1 075 2 835

2003–04 457 1 776 765 1 867 1 231 3 664

2004–05 524 2 020 812 1 842 1 342 3 878

2005–06 776 2 791 645 1 516 1 433 4 352

2006–07 338 1 037 545 1 099 918 2 166

2007–08 398 1 668 791 2 877 1 199 4 567

2008–09 402 1 430 746 2 350 1 156 3 794

2009–10 381 1 405 514 1 342 903 2 764

2010–11 713 2 514 790 1 901 1 514 4 446

2011–12 769 3 101 792 2 394 1 578 5 546

2012–13 s 667 3 108 677 2 162 1 358 5 309

2013–14 f 564 2 382 573 1 585 1 149 4 001

% change 2012–13 to 2013–14 –15 –23 –15 –27 –15 –25

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary estimates for grain sorghum. Note: State production includes cottonseed, grain sorghum, maize, mung beans, rice, peanuts, soybeans and sunflower. Total for Australia also includes navy beans and small areas and volumes of summer crops in other states. Summer crop production figures include northern wet season rice and northern dry season cotton and rice.


3

Total winter crop production is estimated to have increased by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to 44 million tonnes, the second largest winter crop on record. However, there are significant regional variations in winter crop production.

Winter crop production in Western Australia, the largest producing state, is estimated to have increased by 55 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 17.2 million tonnes, reflecting favourable spring growing conditions in the central and southern parts of the state. In South Australia, winter crop production is estimated to have increased by 31 per cent to around 8.6 million tonnes, the third highest level of production on record. Victorian winter crop production is estimated to have risen by 2 per cent to 7.1 million tonnes. In contrast, winter crop production is estimated to have declined by 14 per cent to 9.3 million tonnes in New South Wales and by 20 per cent to around 1.6 million tonnes in Queensland.

For the major winter crops, wheat production is estimated to have increased by 20 per cent to 27 million tonnes and barley production is estimated to have increased by 28 per cent to 9.5 million tonnes. Although canola production is estimated to have declined by 12 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes, this remains the second largest canola crop on record.

Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia

Year New South Wales

kt

Victoria

kt

Queensland kt

South Australia

kt

Western Australia

kt

Australia kt

2003–04 10 797 6 965 1 451 7 360 16 677 43 324 2004–05 10 715 4 219 1 392 5 298 12 979 34 681 2005–06 11 984 6 271 1 435 7 518 13 946 41 236 2006–07 3 796 1 751 925 2 793 8 279 17 588 2007–08 4 001 4 695 1 195 4 706 10 762 25 423 2008–09 9 441 3 890 2 327 4 864 13 786 34 386 2009–10 7 789 5 892 1 618 7 036 12 944 35 352 2010–11 14 786 7 629 1 822 9 317 8 045 41 681 2011–12 11 955 7 348 2 330 7 368 16 599 45 666 2012–13 s 10 865 6 997 2 058 6 573 11 088 37 646 2013–14 s 9 344 7 138 1 645 8 602 17 162 43 956 % change 2012–13 to 2013–14 –14 2 –20 31 55 17 s ABARES estimate. For 2012–13, includes ABS preliminary estimates for barley, canola, oats and wheat. Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

Table 3 Winter crop area, Australia

Year New South Wales

Victoria Queensland South Australia

Western Australia

Australia

’000 ha ’000 ha ’000 ha ’000 ha ’000 ha ’000 ha 2003–04 6 104 3 141 1 034 3 966 7 683 21 953 2004–05 6 441 3 195 861 3 965 7 933 22 417 2005–06 5 595 2 972 969 3 868 7 408 20 837 2006–07 5 673 3 085 810 4 141 6 478 20 215 2007–08 6 314 3 378 876 4 131 7 266 21 988 2008–09 6 296 3 494 1 212 3 979 7 900 22 909 2009–10 6 108 3 491 1 176 3 783 8 272 22 853 2010–11 6 159 3 460 1 220 3 821 7 716 22 401 2011–12 5 968 3 408 1 208 3 840 8 251 22 693 2012–13 s 5 709 3 502 1 194 3 797 8 024 22 244 2013–14 s 5 719 3 440 1 125 3 975 8 209 22 486 % change 2012–13 to 2013–14 0 –2 –6 5 2 1 s ABARES estimate. For 2012–13, includes ABS preliminary estimates for barley, canola, oats and wheat. Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.


4

Climatic and agronomic conditions During November 2013 to January 2014, rainfall was highly variable ranging from severely deficient in parts of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales to average in northern cropping areas of Queensland and across parts of southern Australia. (Map 3).

Map 3 Australian rainfall percentiles, 1 November 2013 to 31 January 2014

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for cropping regions only.


During November 2013, average rainfall was recorded in most cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales, while remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia generally recorded below average falls. December 2013 rainfall was generally average for most cropping regions across southern Australia, with northern New South Wales and Queensland cropping areas receiving well below average falls. In January 2014 rainfall for cropping regions across Australia was predominantly average, with the exception of some cropping regions across northern New South Wales and Queensland where there were severe rainfall deficiencies (Map 4).


5

Map 4 Australian rainfall percentiles, January 2014

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for cropping regions only.


Maximum temperature anomalies, ranging from 1 °C to 4 °C above normal, were recorded in summer cropping regions across southern Queensland and northern New South Wales in January 2014 (Map 5).

Map 5 Maximum temperature anomalies, January 2014

Note: Temperature anomalies are displayed for cropping regions only.


During the height of the heatwave that affected much of Australia at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, maximum temperature anomalies were much higher. From 29 December 2013 to 4 January 2014, northern New South Wales and Queensland had maximum temperature anomalies up to 10 °C above normal (Map 6).


6

Map 6 Maximum temperature anomalies, 29 December 2013 to 4 January 2014

Note: Temperature anomalies are displayed for cropping regions only.


The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal rainfall outlook (February to April 2014) indicates a slightly increased chance of drier than normal conditions across cropping areas in central and southern New South Wales and Victoria where chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 35 per cent and 55 per cent. Chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are roughly equal over the cropping zones of northern New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. In Western Australia, the chances of wetter than normal conditions across the cropping regions are between 55 per cent and 65 per cent (Map 7).

Map 7 Rainfall outlook, February to April 2014

Note: Rainfall outlook is displayed for cropping regions only.



7

The outlook for temperatures from February to April 2014 indicates a slightly higher chance of warmer than average daytime temperatures over most of New South Wales with no indication either way over the rest of the cropping zone. Warmer night-time temperatures are more likely in all cropping regions.

Relative levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (~0.2 metres) and lower layer soil moisture (~0.2 to ~1.5 metres) for the cropping region across Australia at the end of January 2014 are shown in maps 8 and 9, respectively.

The soil moisture estimates are relative to the long-term record and ranked in percentiles. The 90th to 100th percentiles in maps 8 and 9 indicate where the estimated soil moisture level for January 2014 falls into the 10 wettest months, relative to estimated soil moisture levels for that month averaged over a 100-year period. The areas of 0th to 10th percentiles indicate where the estimated soil moisture levels for January 2014 fell into the 10 driest months, relative to estimated soil moisture levels for that month averaged over a 100-year period. These data are sourced from a collaborative project between the Bureau of Meteorology, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and ABARES to develop estimates of soil moisture and other components of water balance at high resolution across Australia.

Upper layer soil moisture responds quickly to seasonal conditions and will often show a pattern that reflects rainfall and temperature events of the same month. Lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond and tends to reflect the accumulated effects of events that have occurred over longer periods of time.

Relative upper layer soil moisture at the end of January 2014 (Map 8) for the wheat–sheep zone is predominantly extremely low to below average. Relative upper layer soil moisture across summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales was predominately well below average to extremely low. This pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects rainfall received to date during the 2013–14 summer.

Map 8 Upper layer soil moisture, January 2014

Note: Relative upper layer soil moisture is displayed for cropping regions only.

Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)

Relative soil moisture in the lower layer at the end of January 2014 was largely average to well below average in Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions (Map 9).


8

Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia show variable relative soil moisture, although levels tend to the average. While deficiencies remain in lower layer soil moisture in Western Australia, recent rainfall should result in improvements in coming months.

Map 9 Lower layer soil moisture, January 2014

Note: Relative lower layer soil moisture is displayed for cropping regions only.

Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)

Map 10 presents the shire-scale forecasts of grain sorghum yields obtained from the University of Queensland’s Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation. These forecasts combine information on starting soil moisture conditions and the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

At the beginning of February 2014, forecast median grain sorghum yields were generally below average, ranging from the 20th and 50th percentile, across far northern summer cropping regions of Queensland. For the majority of central and southern cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales forecast median grain sorghum yields were generally extremely low, ranging from lowest on record to the 30th percentile. This pattern reflects rainfall received during spring 2013 and 2013–14 summer-to-date.


9

Map 10 Forecast median shire sorghum yield ranked relative to all years (%)

Source: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation

Forecast median shire yield ranked relative to all years (%), given the SOI phase was rapidly rising for the December to January period.


10

Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts

District District number

Nov.

median mm

Nov.

2013 mm

Nov.

2013 rank

Dec.

median mm

Dec.

2013 mm

Dec.

2013 rank

Jan.

median mm

Jan.

2014 mm

Jan.

2014 rank

New South Wales N W Plains (W) 52 38 29 13 47 11 7 49 11 4 N W Plains (E) 53 51 52 11 63 15 6 61 22 10 N W Slopes (N) 54 64 79 12 78 25 7 78 28 4 N W Slopes (S) 55 66 98 21 75 34 15 71 8 0 N Tablelands (N) 56 83 120 10 97 35 4 97 31 4 C W Plains (S) 50 30 12 44 35 23 34 33 37 55 C W Plains (N) 51 33 9 33 41 19 20 41 20 24 C W Slopes (N) 64 52 29 32 47 29 21 60 30 21 C W Slopes (S) 65 41 32 44 45 36 39 45 51 58 C Tablelands (N) 62 61 49 26 57 33 23 59 22 13 C Tablelands (S) 63 62 72 28 66 37 25 74 21 8 Riverina (W) 75 22 14 56 24 29 55 18 19 55 Riverina (E) 74 29 22 58 31 37 61 22 20 46 S W Slopes (N) 73 48 37 20 44 20 26 35 17 21 S W Slopes (S) 72 74 47 36 67 57 42 54 42 33

Victoria N Mallee 76 19 7 62 17 25 67 12 5 25 S Mallee 77 25 7 34 19 14 36 13 9 36 N Wimmera 78 27 9 12 20 7 17 14 10 36 S Wimmera 79 33 16 10 27 13 17 19 20 51 Lower North 80 24 12 61 20 32 65 20 9 27 Upper North 81 33 23 49 27 32 59 25 17 35 Lower North East 82 66 29 54 62 72 58 43 43 49 North Central 88 55 43 37 51 46 46 36 19 18 Western Plains 89 48 34 9 37 23 25 28 20 30 West Coast 90 54 60 28 44 39 40 30 23 35 Queensland Central Highlands 35 54 82 20 77 28 10 89 45 19 Maranoa 43 54 68 5 61 11 1 62 24 8 W Darling Downs 42 50 66 13 70 19 4 65 27 6 E Darling Downs 41 59 75 15 81 29 6 67 33 7 Moreton S Coast 40 79 95 25 109 50 10 118 57 9 South Australia Upper South East 25B 28 8 13 22 10 19 15 15 51 Murray Mallee 25A 21 5 39 17 17 50 12 6 30 Murray River 24 21 5 45 16 19 58 13 6 31 East Central 23 32 14 42 24 24 50 16 12 38 Yorke Peninsula 22A 20 13 40 16 17 53 9 6 33 Lower North 21 24 4 51 20 25 65 13 8 34 Upper North 19 17 3 52 18 18 50 12 13 56 Western Agricultural 18 18 22 43 13 15 55 8 21 82 Western Australia North Coast 8 6 2 28 5 3 29 6 6 51 Central Coast 9 16 6 6 8 3 24 4 3 37 Northern Central 10 9 5 20 7 3 27 8 14 70 South Central 10A 16 7 27 10 9 50 8 2 18 South East 12 13 24 79 17 22 63 13 95 98

Note: Percentile ranks are interpreted as the ranking between zero and 100 of current rainfall compared with historical rainfall. Zero is the

lowest rainfall, 100 is the highest rainfall. Australian rainfall districts are shown in Map 2.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology monthly district rainfall reports


11

Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state

New South Wales

Prolonged hot and dry conditions across key summer crop regions in New South Wales have limited the area sown to summer crops and reduced prospective yields. There were significant rainfall deficiencies between November and January and record heatwave conditions in early January. The unfavourable seasonal conditions reduced soil moisture levels and placed crops under moisture stress in December and January. Patchy rainfall across the Liverpool Plains in late December provided some relief and enabled some further sowing of summer crops.

Rainfall in late January was too late to improve prospective yields of earlier sown crops that were stressed by the heatwave conditions but will benefit development of crops sown in late December. However, further widespread rainfall is required for yield prospects to improve.

The area planted to summer crops in New South Wales is forecast to decrease by around 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 564 000 hectares and summer crop production is forecast to decrease by around 23 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes. Production of all major summer crops is expected to fall.

The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to decrease by around 23 per cent in 2013–14 to 140 000 hectares. Most of the planted area is on the southern Liverpool Plains, which had a reasonable start to the season. Other key growing regions had a much drier start and the planted area in these regions is well below average, particularly around Gunnedah and west of Moree. Yields are expected to be below average, particularly for early sown crops, and grain sorghum production is forecast to fall by 42 per cent in 2013–14 to 364 000 tonnes.

The area planted to cotton is estimated to have declined by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 256 000 hectares. However, the average yield is assumed to rise by 2 per cent because irrigated cotton comprises a higher proportion of the area planted to cotton than last year. Cotton production is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to 878 000 tonnes of cottonseed and 621 000 tonnes of cotton lint.

The area planted to rice is forecast to fall by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 100 000 hectares. Rice production is forecast to decline by 22 per cent to 900 000 tonnes, assuming a return to average yields from the above average yields achieved last year.

Total winter crop production in New South Wales is estimated to have declined by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 9.3 million tonnes. The total area planted to winter crops was largely unchanged from the previous season at around 5.7 million hectares.

Wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to around 6.6 million tonnes, reflecting a decrease in the average yield. The area planted to wheat in New South Wales increased by 13 per cent to around 3.8 million hectares.

Barley production is estimated to have decreased by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to just under 1.2 million tonnes. The area planted to barley rose by 9 per cent to 670 000 hectares.

Canola production is estimated to have decreased by 48 per cent in 2013–14 to 688 000 tonnes, reflecting declines in the planted area and the average yield. A combination of record high temperatures, below average spring rainfall, gusty winds and severe frosts reduced yields across many canola growing regions. The area planted to canola fell by 41 per cent in 2013–14 to 550 000 hectares, reflecting low levels of soil moisture at planting time.


12

Table 5 Winter crop estimates, New South Wales, 2013–14

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt

Area change from 2012–13

%

Production change from 2012–13

% Wheat 3 800 1.74 6 612 13 –7 Barley 670 1.76 1 179 9 –11 Canola 550 1.25 688 –41 –48

Note: Yields are based on areas planted.

Table 6 Summer crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2013–14

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt


%


% Grain sorghum 140 2.60 364 –23 –42 Cotton lint 256 2.42 621 –10 –8 Cottonseed 256 3.43 878 –10 –8 Rice 100 9.00 900 –12 –22

Note: Yields are based on areas planted.

Queensland

Most summer cropping regions in Queensland received below to very much below average rainfall during the key planting window from November 2013 to January 2014. Record high temperatures during the first three weeks of January also limited the planted area and reduced prospective yields.

Rainfall in late January across the Darling Downs, although patchy, was received just in time for many later planted crops that were moisture stressed. However, the rainfall was too late to boost yield prospects of early sown crops that had suffered moisture stress for much of December and early January. Rainfall in late January and early February in central Queensland was more significant and will enable additional area to be planted to grain sorghum and improve yield prospects.

The area planted to summer crops in Queensland is forecast to decrease by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to around 573 000 hectares and total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 27 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes.

The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to fall by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 350 000 hectares and grain sorghum production is forecast to fall by 33 per cent to 910 000 tonnes.

The area planted to cotton is estimated to have declined by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 136 000 hectares. However, the average yield is assumed to rise by 8 per cent because irrigated cotton comprises a higher proportion of the total area planted to cotton than last year. A negligible amount of dryland cotton was planted because of dry seasonal conditions and high temperatures during the planting window. Cotton production is forecast to decline by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to around 452 000 tonnes of cottonseed and 320 000 tonnes of cotton lint.

Total winter crop production in Queensland is estimated to have fallen by 20 per cent in 2013–14 to around 1.6 million tonnes. The total area sown to winter crops decreased by around 6 per cent to 1.1 million hectares.

Wheat production is estimated to have decreased by 21 per cent in 2013–14 to1.2 million tonnes. The area planted to wheat fell by 6 per cent to 800 000 hectares.

Queensland barley production is estimated to have fallen by around 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 138 000 tonnes. The area sown to barley increased by 2 per cent to 90 000 hectares.


13

Total chickpea production is estimated to have decreased by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to 296 000 tonnes. The area planted to chickpeas decreased marginally to around 216 000 hectares.

Table 7 Winter crop estimates, Queensland, 2013–14

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt


%


% Wheat 800 1.50 1 200 –6 –21 Barley 90 1.53 138 2 –15 Chickpeas 216 1.37 296 –1 –17

Note: Yields are based on area planted.

Table 8 Summer crop forecasts, Queensland, 2013–14

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt


%


% Grain sorghum 350 2.60 910 –14 –33 Cotton lint 136 2.35 320 –14 –8 Cottonseed 136 3.32 452 –14 –8


Victoria

Seasonal conditions were generally drier and warmer than average over most key winter cropping areas in Victoria but with significant regional variation. For the Mallee, early spring rainfall was timely but a warm and dry finish to the season reduced yields. In contrast, seasonal conditions in the Western District and much of the Wimmera were more favourable, and yields were above average. The North Central region and parts of the Wimmera were adversely affected by frost events in October but any adverse effects on crops were highly variable.

Total winter crop production in Victoria is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to around 7.1 million tonnes. The total area sown to winter crops declined by 2 per cent to around 3.4 million hectares.

Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to around 3.5 million tonnes, largely reflecting an increase in planted area. The average yield across Victoria is estimated to have been largely unchanged from the previous season but there was significant regional variation. Quality was generally good across the state but cases of pinched and frosted grains were reported in the North Central region and parts of the Wimmera.

Barley production is estimated to have increased by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to around 2.2 million tonnes, with an estimated 8 per cent increase in planted area to 915 000 hectares. The average yield across Victoria is estimated to have increased by 3 per cent. Quality was mixed in the Wimmera but was generally good in the Western District.

Canola production is estimated to have fallen by 33 per cent in 2013–14 to around 618 000 tonnes, largely the result of a 31 per cent decline in planted area. The average yield is estimated to have fallen by 3 per cent, albeit with great variation among regions. Quality was also highly variable but was generally good for canola that was not affected by frost.


14

Table 9 Winter crop estimates, Victoria, 2013–14

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt


%


% Wheat 1 610 2.20 3 541 2 2 Barley 915 2.38 2 178 8 12 Canola 434 1.42 618 –31 –33


South Australia

Crop yields in South Australia are estimated to have been above average, despite relatively unfavourable conditions during much of spring and summer. This is largely the result of favourable conditions over winter that put crops in good condition at the start of spring and replenished lower layer soil moisture levels.

Harvesting of winter crops was finished early in some regions at the beginning of December. By contrast, harvest in the Lower South East was delayed by below average temperatures during November and did not begin until mid December. Intermittent rain in December delayed harvest in some other regions, but was largely completed by the end of January.

Winter crop production in South Australia is estimated to have risen by 31 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.6 million tonnes, reflecting a significant increase in the average yield of all three major crops. The area planted increased by 5 per cent to almost 4 million hectares.

Wheat production is estimated to have risen by 38 per cent in 2013–14 to 5.1 million tonnes. The average wheat yield is estimated to have increased by 27 per cent and the area planted rose by 9 per cent. Wheat screenings were higher than usual in some regions, largely a result of the hot and dry finish to the season. Protein levels were below average.

Barley production is estimated to have increased by 24 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.2 million tonnes. Despite barley being the crop most affected by strong winds in October, the average yield across the state is estimated to have increased by 15 per cent.

Canola production is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 442 000 tonnes, reflecting an estimated 24 per cent increase in the average yield. The area planted to canola declined by 18 per cent. Oil content of the canola seeds was generally above average.

Table 10 Winter crop estimates, South Australia, 2013–14

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt


%


% Wheat 2 279 2.25 5 128 9 38 Barley 925 2.40 2 225 8 24 Canola 285 1.55 442 –18 2


Western Australia

Western Australia had a favourable finish to the 2013–14 winter cropping season, especially in the central and southern regions of the grains belt. However, crops in the northern and eastern regions were too advanced to benefit significantly from the favourable finish and yields in these regions are estimated to have been below average.

Harvesting of the 2013–14 winter crops began in early October and progressed rapidly, aided by favourable harvesting conditions.


15

Total winter crop production in Western Australia is estimated to have risen by 55 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 17.2 million tonnes. The average yield across the state for each of the major crops is estimated to be well above average. However, protein levels for grains are estimated to be below average.

Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 58 per cent in 2013–14 to around 10.5 million tonnes. The average yield across the state is estimated to be well above average at 2.1 tonnes a hectare.

Barley production is estimated to have risen by 72 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 3.8 million tonnes. While the average yield across the state is estimated to have been a record, lower than average selection rates for malting barley are expected.

Canola production is estimated to have risen by 37 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 1.8 million tonnes. Despite variable growing conditions over the season, the quality of the crop is generally excellent.

Lupins production is estimated to have risen by 56 per cent in 2013–14 to 461 000 tonnes. An estimated 92 per cent increase in the average yield offset the effect of a 19 per cent fall in the planted area.

Table 11 Winter crop estimates, Western Australia, 2013–14

Crop Area ’000 ha

Yield t/ha

Production kt


%


% Wheat 5 015 2.09 10 500 3 58 Barley 1 350 2.81 3 800 12 72 Canola 1 297 1.39 1 800 1 37 Lupins 246 1.88 461 –19 56



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Table 12 Australian crop production

Crop Area planted Yield t/ha Production kt average a

’000 ha 2011–12

’000 ha 2012–13 s

’000 ha 2013–14 f

’000 ha average a

t/ha 2011–12

t/ha 2012–13 s

t/ha 2013–14 f

t/ha average a

kt 2011–12

kt 2012–13 s

kt 2013–14 f

kt Winter crops Wheat 13 518 13 902 12 773 13 512 1.82 2.15 1.76 2.00 24 606 29 905 22 461 27 013 Barley 4 092 3 718 3 622 3 957 1.96 2.21 2.06 2.41 7 909 8 221 7 466 9 545 Canola 2 226 2 461 3 203 2 567 1.20 1.39 1.25 1.38 2 709 3 427 4 010 3 548 Chickpeas 490 456 574 507 1.22 1.48 1.42 1.24 586 673 813 629 Faba beans 154 151 203 152 1.68 1.77 1.86 2.15 264 268 377 328 Field peas 286 249 281 245 1.16 1.38 1.14 1.40 330 342 320 342 Lentils 155 173 164 168 1.29 1.67 1.12 1.50 212 288 184 253 Lupins 633 689 450 387 1.19 1.42 1.02 1.62 756 982 459 625 Oats 795 731 699 744 1.48 1.73 1.60 1.69 1 165 1 262 1 115 1 259 Triticale 253 145 258 230 1.64 1.97 1.66 1.74 395 285 429 400 Summer crops Grain sorghum 630 659 595 492 3.27 3.40 3.37 2.60 2 076 2 239 2 005 1 278 Cottonseed b 401 600 442 392 2.75 2.89 3.25 3.39 1 090 1 732 1 438 1 330 Cotton lint b 401 600 442 392 1.95 2.04 2.30 2.40 777 1 225 1 017 940 Rice (paddy) 64 103 114 101 9.51 8.91 10.24 8.98 613 919 1 166 907 Corn (maize) 67 70 81 58 5.94 6.47 6.13 5.78 401 451 496 335 Sunflower 37 40 30 27 1.28 1.17 1.46 1.18 46 47 44 32 a Five-year average to 2012–13. b Cotton area is estimated harvested area. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary estimates for barley, canola, grain sorghum, oats and wheat. Note: The crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory in the Australian totals. Rice, cottonseed and cotton lint include northern dry and wet season crops. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


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Table 13 State production, major crops

Crop New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Tasmania area prod. area prod. area prod. area prod. area prod. area prod.

Winter Crops '000 ha kt '000 ha kt '000 ha kt '000 ha kt '000 ha kt '000 ha kt

Wheat 2013–14 s 3 800 6 612 1 610 3 541 800 1 200 2 279 5 128 5 015 10 500 8 32 2012–13 s 3 367 7 081 1 577 3 460 851 1 528 2 096 3 715 4 875 6 645 6 31 2011–12 3 868 8 473 1 669 3 943 953 1 886 2 249 4 525 5 156 11 045 7 32 Five-year average to 2012–13 3 871 7 671 1 675 3 313 938 1 660 2 182 4 113 4 844 7 817 7 31

Barley 2013–14 s 670 1 179 915 2 178 90 138 925 2 225 1 350 3 800 7 25 2012–13 s 616 1 331 844 1 951 88 162 860 1 791 1 210 2 214 5 16 2011–12 673 1 425 831 2 005 80 191 881 1 816 1 246 2 761 6 23 Five-year average to 2012–13 819 1 527 918 1 845 84 157 955 1 935 1 307 2 417 8 27

Canola 2013–14 s 550 688 434 618 1 0 285 442 1 297 1 800 0 0 2012–13 s 937 1 335 628 922 1 1 349 435 1 287 1 316 1 1 2011–12 729 1 092 477 689 1 1 283 413 969 1 232 1 1 Five-year average to 2012–13 548 748 389 530 2 2 243 334 1 043 1 094 1 1

Lupins 2013–14 s 57 57 28 29 0 0 56 78 246 461 0 0 2012–13 s 58 63 29 26 0 0 61 74 303 295 0 0 2011–12 79 84 46 42 1 1 63 73 501 782 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 82 104 38 37 0 0 59 73 454 541 0 0

Oats 2013–14 s 250 250 150 315 15 8 86 160 240 520 3 6 2012–13 s 233 258 113 232 33 9 60 85 257 523 4 7 2011–12 236 258 131 234 18 23 55 78 288 662 3 8 Five-year average to 2012–13 274 291 154 248 17 11 76 103 272 506 4 7

Summer crops Grain sorghum 2013–14 f 140 364 1 2 350 910 0 0 1 2 0 0 2012–13 s 183 632 1 3 409 1 366 0 1 1 2 0 0 2011–12 221 814 1 3 436 1 416 0 0 1 2 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 198 739 1 2 430 1 332 0 0 1 1 0 0

Cottonseed a 2013–14 f 256 878 0 0 136 452 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012–13 s 284 949 0 0 159 489 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011–12 358 1 065 0 0 241 665 0 0 1 2 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 240 687 0 0 161 403 0 0 0 0 0 0 a Cottonseed area is estimated harvested area. Includes northern dry season crop. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary estimates for barley, canola, grain sorghum, oats and wheat. Note: Zero area or production estimates may appear as a result of rounding to the nearest whole number, if production or area estimates are less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


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Table 14 State production, other crops

Crop New South Wales Victoria Queensland South Australia Western Australia Other a area

’000 ha prod.

kt area

’000 ha prod.

kt area

’000 ha prod.

kt area

’000 ha prod.

kt area

’000 ha prod.

kt area

’000 ha prod.

kt

Winter crops Chickpeas 2013–14 s 220 251 48 50 216 296 19 27 5 6 0 0 2012–13 s 280 379 49 52 218 357 20 22 6 4 0 0 2011–12 244 361 48 72 149 221 11 14 5 6 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 276 329 43 43 155 198 11 13 5 4 0 0 Faba beans 2013–14 s 29 71 59 127 0 0 61 121 4 9 0 0 2012–13 s 54 123 67 126 0 0 78 122 4 6 0 0 2011–12 43 67 49 99 2 3 55 95 3 4 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 41 71 47 78 1 1 62 109 3 4 0 0 Field peas 2013–14 s 50 53 51 68 0 0 112 184 32 37 0 0 2012–13 s 53 66 52 65 0 0 114 130 62 59 0 0 2011–12 41 62 38 60 0 0 110 150 60 71 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 39 41 58 66 0 0 117 155 73 69 0 0 Lentils 2013–14 s 1 1 79 112 0 0 89 141 0 0 0 0 2012–13 s 1 1 77 80 0 0 87 103 0 0 0 0 2011–12 1 1 77 125 0 0 95 162 0 0 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 0 0 78 87 0 0 77 124 0 0 0 0 Summer crops Corn (maize) 2013–14 s 20 166 2 12 35 151 0 0 1 7 0 0 2012–13 s 30 261 2 15 48 216 0 0 1 4 0 0 2011–12 21 207 4 21 43 217 1 2 0 2 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 22 185 2 11 43 201 0 1 1 3 0 0 Sunflower 2013–14 f 18 23 1 1 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012–13 s 19 30 1 2 10 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011–12 20 25 0 0 20 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 23 31 0 0 13 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rice b 2013–14 f 100 900 0 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012–13 s 113 1 160 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011–12 102 912 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Five-year average to 2012–13 63 609 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 a Refers to Northern Territory for rice. For all other crops, refers to Tasmania. b Paddy. Includes northern dry season and wet season crops. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: Zero area or production estimates may appear as a result of rounding to the nearest whole number, if production or area estimates are less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


19

Table 15 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, oilseeds and pulses

Crop 2007–08 kt

2008–09 kt

2009–10 kt

2010–11 kt

2011–12 kt

2012–13 s kt

Wheat Production 13 569 21 420 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 461 Apparent domestic use 6 517 7 306 4 999 5 663 6 334 6 335 – seed 677 694 675 695 639 676 – other a 5 841 6 612 4 324 4 968 5 695 5 659 Exports b 7 444 14 707 14 791 18 584 24 656 18 644 Imports b 6 12 15 12 14 17 Canola Production 1 214 1 844 1 907 2 359 3 427 4 010 Apparent domestic use a 743 778 721 810 871 499 Exports 472 1 067 1 187 1 549 2 557 3 512 Pulses Production – lupins 662 708 823 808 982 459 – field peas 268 238 356 395 342 320 – chickpeas 313 443 487 513 673 813 Apparent domestic use a – lupins 585 404 470 621 416 304 – field peas 129 104 196 95 130 145 – chickpeas 87 1 1 39 93 1 Exports – lupins 77 304 353 186 565 155 – field peas 141 137 162 302 215 177 – chickpeas 222 506 492 461 598 816 a In principle, calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks and, for wheat only, less seed use. b Includes grain and grain equivalent of wheat flour. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary production estimates for canola and wheat. Note: Production, use, trade and stock data are on a marketing year basis: October–September for wheat; November–October for canola, peas and lupins. Production may not equal the sum of apparent domestic use and exports in any one year because of reductions or increases in stocks. The export data refer to marketing year export periods, so are not comparable with financial year export figures published elsewhere. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia


20

Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of coarse grains

Crop 2007–08 kt

2008–09 kt

2009–10 kt

2010–11 kt

2011–12 kt

2012–13 s kt

Barley Production 7 160 7 997 7 865 7 995 8 221 7 466 Apparent domestic use 3 105 4 104 3 230 2 631 2 075 2 177 – seed 188 221 226 199 166 167 – other a 2 917 3 884 3 004 2 432 1 909 2 009 Export 4 055 3 892 4 635 5 364 6 146 5 289 – feed barley 2 303 2 254 2 668 3 601 3 758 2 972 – malting barley 1 083 980 1 248 1 062 1 619 1 512 – malt (grain equivalent) 669 658 720 700 770 805 Oats Production 1 502 1 160 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 115 Apparent domestic use 1 321 999 954 1 009 1 059 999 – seed 48 59 42 41 40 35 – other a 1 273 940 912 969 1 019 963 Export 181 161 208 118 203 116 Triticale Production 450 363 545 355 285 429 Apparent domestic use 450 363 545 355 285 429 – seed 16 18 9 7 13 12 – other a 434 345 536 348 272 417 Grain sorghum Production 3 790 2 692 1 508 1 935 2 239 2 005 Apparent domestic use 2 833 1 694 1 167 984 1 060 861 – seed 4 2 3 3 3 2 – other a 2 829 1 691 1 164 981 1 057 859 Export b 110 957 998 341 950 1 179 Corn (maize) Production 387 376 328 357 451 496 Apparent domestic use 320 363 321 312 346 391 – seed 1 1 1 1 1 1 – other a 319 362 320 311 345 390 Export b 1 67 13 9 46 106 Total coarse grains Production 13 289 12 587 11 407 11 769 12 457 11 511 Apparent domestic use 8 029 7 523 6 216 5 292 4 824 4 856 – seed 257 301 281 251 222 217 – other a 7 772 7 222 5 935 5 040 4 601 4 639 Export 4 347 5 078 5 854 5 832 7 346 6 691 a In principle, calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks less seed use. The sum of domestic use and exports may differ from production as a result of changes in stocks. b Presentation of export volumes for grain sorghum and corn (maize) in this table was changed in December 2011. Export volumes are now shown in the year of actual export, which is typically one year after production.. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary production estimates for barley, grain sorghum and oats. Note: Production, use and export data are on a marketing year basis: marketing years are November–October for barley, oats and triticale; March–February for grain sorghum and corn (maize). Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)


21

Table 17 Grains and oilseeds prices

Crop 2012 Apr–Jun

A$/t

2012 Jul–Sep

A$/t

2012 Oct–Dec

A$/t

2013 Jan–Mar

A$/t

2013 Apr–Jun

A$/t

2013 Jul–Sep

A$/t

2013 Oct–Dec

A$/t Wheat Domestic: feed, del. Sydney 228 299 306 314 307 293 300 International: US No.2 hard red winter, fob Gulf a 279 351 355 321 327 341 341 Barley Domestic: 2 row feed, del. Sydney 202 262 305 301 293 265 241 Export: feed b 251 258 275 294 300 314 263 Export: malting b 275 262 301 319 319 329 327 International: feed, fob Rouen a 269 291 302 288 272 260 271 Grain sorghum Domestic: feed, del. Sydney 197 254 289 289 305 312 310 Export b 248 249 286 267 313 357 383 Oats Domestic: feed, del. Sydney 204 222 234 232 260 252 203 Export b 264 307 318 350 391 601 278 International: CME oats nearby contract 220 250 248 250 269 269 257 Corn (maize) Domestic: feed, del. Sydney 292 301 330 341 356 370 383 International: US No.2 yellow corn, fob Gulf a 269 319 307 295 296 270 215 Oilseeds Domestic: canola, del. Melbourne 536 557 566 550 565 550 513 Domestic: sunflowers, del. Melbourne 520 520 520 520 520 520 540 International: US soybeans, fob Gulf a 545 627 563 545 588 595 568 Pulses Domestic: lupins, del. Kwinana 247 305 336 331 299 288 309 Domestic: chickpeas, del. Melbourne 612 640 514 518 532 439 390 Domestic: field peas, del. Melbourne 345 369 343 370 396 403 335 Export: chickpeas b 634 710 623 595 612 617 513 Export: field peas b 409 418 411 431 444 489 437 a Average of daily offer prices made in US$, converted to A$ using quarterly average of daily exchange rates. b Export unit values reflect the average price received for grain exported over the quarter, not current market prices. These prices are the average unit value (free on board) of Australian exports recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A long lag time can exist between when exporters negotiate prices and when the product is exported. Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.

australian crop reportdata.daff.gov.au/data/warehouse/aucrpd9abcc003/... · planted to dryland...

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