august 8, 2017 - miraeasset.co.id · besar dengan perolehan kontrak baru di bandara...
TRANSCRIPT
Christine Natasya +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
MNCN prime time audience shares
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Embun Pagi
August 8, 2017
MNCN 2Q17 review: Slight drop in RCTI revenue
2Q17: Smaller forex gains and tax amnesty led to declining net profit
Untuk 2Q17, MNCN membukukan laba bersih IDR356bn (-15% QoQ; -32% YoY).
Secara kumulatif pada 1H17, perusahaan tersebut memperoleh laba bersih sebesar
IDR775bn, hanya mencapai 44% dan 43% dari perkiraan kami dan konsensus. Baik
secara tahunan dan kuartalan, net profit turun, terutama karena keuntungan forex
yang jauh lebih kecil yang tercatat di 2Q17 (IDR1.5bn) vs. 1Q17 (IDR31.3bn) dan
2Q16 (IDR28.7bn). Selain menurunnya net profit, perusahaan berpartisipasi dalam
amnesti pajak dengan membayar pajak sebesar IDR86.9bn pada 2Q17, sehingga tax
rate menjadi lebih tinggi sebesar 43% pada 2Q17 (vs 22% pada 1Q17 dan 27% di
2Q16).Maintain Buy, but lower TP to IDR2,920
Lower revenue growth despite maintaining audience share
Pada 2Q17, MNCN membukukan kenaikan 25%QoQ pada pendapatannya menjadi
IDR2.01tr, kami percaya terutama didukung oleh Ramadhan. Namun, secara YoY,
MNCN membukukan sedikit penurunan pada revenue sebesar -0.7%YoY meski
mampu mempertahankan dominasinya di pangsa pemirsa. Selain itu, pada
pendapatan 2Q17 RCTI terlihat penurunan 4% YoY meskipun prime time audience
sharenya lebih tinggi dari channel MNCN lainnya yaitu: MNCTV dan Global TV. Kami
mengatribusikan ini karena audience share MNCTV dan GTV yang meningkat. Di
2Q17, MNCTV membukukan pertumbuhan pendapatan 12.6%YoY, dan Global TV
(3%YoY). Menurut konferensi pers MNCN pada hari Jumat, 4 Agustus, pendapatan
yang sedikit lebih rendah (YoY) adalah karena tidak adanya pendapatan Euro Cup di
2Q17 (sebesar IDR150bn pada 2Q16; c.7.4% dari total pendapatan 2Q16 MNCN).
Namun, stripping off pendapatan Euro Cup di 2Q16, total pendapatan 2Q17 MNCN
hanya menunjukkan pertumbuhan +7.2%YoY. Dengan mempertimbangkan result
2Q17 MNCN yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan, kami telah melakukan beberapa
penyesuaian dalam financial model kami. Kami mempertahankan Hold untuk MNCN
dengan target harga yang lebih rendah sebesar IDR1,640; mengimplikasikan P/E
2017F 15.6x. MNCN saat ini ditradingkan pada P/E 15.2x 2017F.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 5,749.3 -0.5 -0.6 5.8
MSCI Indonesia 26.6 -0.1 -1.0 0.4
MSCI EM 1,075.4 0.8 6.5 19.2
HANG SENG 27,690.4 0.5 8.8 22.5
KOSPI 2,398.8 0.3 0.8 18.1
FTSE 7,531.9 0.3 2.2 10.3
DJIA 22,118.4 0.1 3.2 19.2
NASDAQ 6,383.8 0.5 3.2 21.8
Valuation
2017F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 16.5 2.6 18.9
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.75 0 0 -50
3yr 6.73 -1 -10 11
10yr 6.91 -1 -27 3
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,321.00 0.0 -0.6 1.5
USD/KRW 1,127.15 0.2 -1.9 1.7
USD/JPY 110.75 0.1 -2.9 8.1
USD/CNY 6.72 0.2 -1.1 1.0
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 49.4 -0.4 11.3 2.3
Gold 1,257.9 -0.1 3.6 -5.8
Coal 95.0 1.9 15.1 46.2
Palm Oil 2,581.0 1.6 -1.4 5.0
Rubber 132.2 0.0 3.2 -2.9
Nickel 10,250.0 -1.3 14.9 -4.3
Copper 6,414.0 0.7 10.1 33.3
Tin 20,600.0 0.4 4.8 11.8
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
650
800
950
1,100
3,500
4,500
5,500
07/13 07/14 07/15 07/16 07/17
JCI MSCI EM(pt)
(pt)
650
800
950
1,100
3,500
4,500
5,500
04/13 01/14 10/14 07/15 04/16
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
August 8, 2017
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Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
August 8, 2017
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Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Local flashes
PTPP: Pembangunan Perumahan mengantongi kontrak baru Rp 21,9 triliun. Dalam
tujuh bulan pertama tahun ini, PT PP Tbk (PTPP) mencatatkan nilai kontrak baru Rp
21,9 triliun. Untuk bulan Juli saja, kontrak baru yang diperoleh PTPP mencapai Rp 1,5
triliun. "Nantinya, di bulan Agustus akan ada pencatatan kontrak baru yang cukup
besar dengan perolehan kontrak baru di Bandara Kulonprogo," kata Tumiyana, Direktur
Utama PTPP. Hingga akhir tahun, PTPP menargetkan perolehan kontrak baru sebesar
Rp 40,6 triliun. (Kontan)
TOTL: Total akan akuisisi tanah di semester dua ini. PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk
(TOTL) baru menyerap belanja modal sebesar Rp 6,5 miliar hingga bulan Juli 2017 ini.
Padahal perusahaan konstruksi ini menganggarkan belanja modal sebanyak Rp 100
miliar hingga akhir tahun mendatang. Meski demikian, Mahmilan Sugiyo Warsono,
Sekretaris Perusahaan TOTL mengatakan, pihaknya akan menggunakan belanja modal
ini di semester ini. (Kontan)
BWPT: Eagle Plantations kantongi fasilitas utang Rp 1,15 triliun. PT Eagle High
Plantations Tbk (BWPT) memperoleh pembiayaan kembali (refinancing) bank.
Berdasarkan laporan keuangan BWPT, anak usahanya, yakni PT Sawit Sukses Sejahtera
mengantongi fasilitas pembiayaan dari Indonesia Eximbank alias Lembaga Pembiayaan
Ekspor Indonesia. Pembiayaan syariah dengan prinsip musyarakah mutanaqisah yang
diteken 16 Juni ini bernilai Rp 1,15 triliun. Per akhir Juni, saldo fasilitas ini sebesar Rp
808 miliar. (Kontan)
SGRO: Sampoerna Agro optimistis produksi naik 15%-20%. Kendati dibayangi oleh
musim kemarau yang berisiko menimbulkan kebakaran lahan, PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk.
optimistis produksi kebun sawit akan tumbuh 15%-20% sepanjang tahun ini. Budi
Setiawan Halim, Direktur Keuangan Sampoerna Agro, mengatakan sepanjang Januari-
Juni 2017, produksi tandan buah segar naik 44% dari 453.677 ton menjadi 652.185 ton.
Namun, produksi pada kuartal II/2017 anjlok 36% dibandingkan dengan Januari-Maret
2017. (Bisnis Indonesia)
APLN: Agung Podomoro Land realisasikan marketing sales sekitar Rp200 miliar pada
Juli. PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk. memperkirakan prapenjualan properti atau
marketing sales perseroan sepanjang bulan Juli tahun ini mencapai Rp200 miliar. Cesar
M. Dela Cruz, Direktur Keuangan Agung Podomoro Land, mengatakan perseroan sudah
berhasil mengantongi marketing sales hingga Rp2,37 triliun hingga akhir semester
pertama lalu. Nilai itu meningkat 54,6% bila dibandingkan capaian pada periode yang
sama tahun lalu Rp1,54 triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia)
INTA: Intraco Penta membidik pertumbuhan pendapatan 20%. Sepanjang semester
pertama 2017, PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) mencatat kenaikan pendapatan usaha
sebesar 38,85% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2016. Kenaikan ini didorong
penjualan alat berat/konstruksi dan jasa pertambangan. INTA mencatat pendapatan
usaha sebesar Rp 1,01 triliun pada akhir Juni 2017. Besar pendapatan ini naik
dibandingkan periode sama tahun lalu, yakni Rp 724,54 miliar. (Kontan)
August 8, 2017
4
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) –Oversold
IHSG akan coba naik dari abnormal lower band pada uptrend channel
IHSG saat masih dalam pola uptrend jangka pendek relatif valid yang dimulai sejak 136
hari terakhir dengan r-squared = 0.9213 dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.76
std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang IHSG bergerak di luar pergerakan normal sekitar 7.87%
atau sekitar 10 bar chart. Rata-rata volatilitas normal pergerakan IHSG saat ini sebesar
antara 0.34 % / - 0.35% atau +19.62 point / -20.22 point (rata-rata pergerakan normal
positif / negatif selama periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 1.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Aug 7, 2017) 5,749.29(-0.5%) Trading range 5,740 – 5,770
Average index performance (%) 4.44 Target
Period 136 - Daily 5,770
r-squared 0.9213 - Weekly 5,830
Volatility (+/-, %) +0.34 / -0.35 - Monthly 5,903
Volatility (+/-, point) +19.62 / -20.22 Stop loss 5,728
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 5,790.3
_____ 5,750.4
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 5,781 High: 5,813 Low: 5,749 Close: 5,749 Chg. -0.5%
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,770.5
Volatility (+) : 0.0034
Volatility (-) : -0.0035
V-Ratio : 0.99
5,749.29
5,749.29
5,727.72
5,768.33
5,805.88
5,810.13
5,900.59
5,900.59
5,995.3
6,051.89
Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 4,466,126,336.00, Avg.Volume = 5,227,640,832.00
4,466,126,336
5,227,640,832
August 8, 2017
5
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas pergerakkan indeks turun sudah terbatas.
Pada Figure 2, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir pada periode daily terlihat
indikator MFI optimized , indikator W%R optimized dan indikator RSI optimized ,
menguji support trendline. Hal ini juga terlihat pada Bollinger Band optimized dengan
kecenderungan menguat. Sementara itu pada Figure 3 pada periode weekly pergerakkan
indikator MFI Optimized cenderung naik dan indikator W%R optimized sudah berada
di support trendline. Daily resistance di 5,770 dan daily support di 5,740. Cut loss level di
5,728.
Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized ,W%R optimized, RSI optimized & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 1.67
1.67156
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -89.99
-89.9898
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 16.83
16.8272
_____ 5,790.3_____ 5,750.4
gap up , 5,746 - 5,747
tgl. 19-20 Juni 2017
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 5,781 High: 5,813 Low: 5,749 Close: 5,749 Chg. -0.5%
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,770.5
Volatility (+) : 0.0034
Volatility (-) : -0.0035
V-Ratio : 0.99 5,749.29
5,815.63
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 4,466,126,336.00, Avg.Volume = 5,227,640,832.00
4,466,126,336
5,227,640,832
August 8, 2017
6
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 3. Weekly Trend – Uptrend, MFI optimized & W%R optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
IHSG untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harus mampu bertahan diatas level 5,750
Untuk mampu kembali bergerak naik, indeks ini harus mampu dipertahankan pada level
5,750. Terlihat pada pergerakkan daily, rata-rata koreksi normal selama periode analisis
adalah sekitar -0.35%, sementara saat ini di level -0.5%. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan
weekly potensi koreksi normal rata-rata sekitar -0.91%, saat ini sekitar -0.5%. Dengan
demikian potensi koreksi mulai tertahan dengan kecenderungan bottom reversal. Pada
Figure 4,5 dan 6 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 4. Daily : 5,740 – 5,770 Figure 5. Weekly : 5,718– 5,830 Figure 6. Monthly : 5,667 – 5,903
x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 44.35
44.3523
^JKSE - Will%R Smoothed = -48.07
-48.0679
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
_____ 5,830.9
_____ 5,718.2
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 8/13/2017 Open: 5,781 High: 5,813 Low: 5,749 Close: 5,749 Chg. -0.5%
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,770.5
Volatility (+) : 0.0105
Volatility (-) : -0.0091
V-Ratio : 1.16 6,011.86
5,890.52
5,890.52
5,769.18
5,749.29
5,723.96
5,706.1
6,074.94
Nov Dec 23 2016 Feb Mar 24Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 22Jul Aug Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 4,466,126,336.00, Avg.Volume = 21,203,384,320.00
4,466,126,336
21,203,384,320
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 5,790.3
_____ 5,750.4
5,770.5
5,768.8
5,739.8
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 5,781 High: 5,813
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,770.5
Volatility (+) : 0.0034
Volatility (-) : -0.0035
V-Ratio : 0.99
5,749.29
10 17 24 31Aug
^JKSE - Volume = 4,466,126,336.00
4,466,126,336
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 5,830.9
_____ 5,718.2
5,770.5
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Weekly - 8/13/2017 Open: 5,781 High: 5,813
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,770.5
Volatility (+) : 0.0105
Volatility (-) : -0.0091
V-Ratio : 1.16
5,749.29
13 May Jun 22Jul Aug
^JKSE - Volume = 4,466,126,336.00
4,466,126,336
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 6,020.3
_____ 5,549.6
5,785.8
5,902.63
5,667.28
^JKSE [ ^JKSE ] - Monthly - 8/7/2017 Open: 5,854 High: 5,859
Prev. Avg. Price: 5,785.8
Volatility (+) : 0.0405
Volatility (-) : -0.0408
V-Ratio : 0.99
5,749.29
Apr Jul Oct 2017 Jul
^JKSE - Volume = 25,889,939,456.00
25,889,939,456
August 8, 2017
7
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Stocks on our focus list
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI)-Weekly,Buy on Weakness
Harga akan coba naik mendekati center line pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini masih bergerak pada uptrend channel yang masih
relatif valid (r-squared = 0.908) selama 65 minggu terakhir yang bergerak normal
dalam rentang +/- 1.68 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari
pergerakan normal sekitar 9.22 % (sekitar 6 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal
pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +4% / - 3.81 % atau +249.67 rupiah / -237.81
rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif selama periode analisis)
sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 7.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Aug 7, 2017) 6,275(+2.0%) Trading range 6,000 – 6,500
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 3.63 Target
β (beta) 1.28 - Daily 6,350
Corelation (0.20) - Weekly 6,500
Period 65 - Monthly 6,900
r-squared 0.908 Stop loss 5,925
Volatility (+/-, %) + 4 / -3.81
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +249.67/ -237.81
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 7. Weekly trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Aliran dana masuk dan volatilitas harga naik masih terlihat.
Pada Figure 8, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi terakhir, indikator MFI optimized, W%R
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 6,491.2
_____ 6,004.1
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk [ MAPI.JK ] - Weekly - 8/13/2017 Open: 6,150 High: 6,300 Low: 6,150 Close: 6,275 Chg. 2.0%
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,241.7
Volatility (+) : 0.0400
Volatility (-) : -0.0381
V-Ratio : 1.05
6,275
6,175.26
6,055.74
5,929.68
6,297.83
6,605.73
6,605.73
7,036.21
7,281.79
Mar 24Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 22Jul Aug Optimization Trading System - ©2010
MAPI.JK - Volume = 1,460,400.00, Avg.Volume = 6,562,243.00
1,460,400
6,562,243
August 8, 2017
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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
optimized dan RSI optimized masih cenderung naik. Daily resistance terdekat di 6,350
sebelum ke weekly resistance di 6,500. Daily support di 6,125 dan weekly support di
6,000. Cut loss level di 5,925.
Figure 8. Weekly, MFI optimized,W%R optimized,RSI optimized & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
MAPI.JK - MFI Smoothed = 43.09
43.0887
MAPI.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -68.97
-68.9687
MAPI.JK - RSI Smoothed = 56.62
56.6193
_____ 6,491.2
_____ 6,004.1
Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk [ MAPI.JK ] - Weekly - 8/13/2017 Open: 6,150 High: 6,300 Low: 6,150 Close: 6,275 Chg. 2.0%
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,241.7
Volatility (+) : 0.0400
Volatility (-) : -0.0381
V-Ratio : 1.05 6,275
6,296.43
Dec 23 2016 Feb Mar 24Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 22Jul Aug Optimization Trading System - ©2010 - Powered by AMTA
MAPI.JK - Volume = 1,460,400.00, Avg.Volume = 6,562,243.00
1,460,400
6,562,243
August 8, 2017
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Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) .Pada pergerakkan daily coba
bertahan di dengan kenaikkan +2.0 % sementara itu kenaikkan normal rata-rata di level -
1.71%. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly harga sudah naik sekitar +2.0%.
Normal kenaikkan sekitar +4.00% Dengan demikian potensi koreksi masih terlihat
namun untuk sementara akan cenderung konsolidasi. Pada Figure 9,10 dan 11 terlihat
perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 9. Daily : 6,125 – 6,350 Figure 10. Weekly : 6,000 – 6,500 Figure 11. Monthly : 5,700 – 6,900
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 6,348.3
_____ 6,117.6
6,241.7
Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk [ MAPI.JK ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,241.7
Volatility (+) : 0.0171
Volatility (-) : -0.0199
V-Ratio : 0.86
6,275
17 24 31Aug 7
MAPI.JK - Volume = 1,460,400.00
1,460,400
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 6,491.2
_____ 6,004.1
6,241.7
Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk [ MAPI.JK ] - Weekly - 8/13/2017 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,241.7
Volatility (+) : 0.0400
Volatility (-) : -0.0381
V-Ratio : 1.05
6,275
13 May Jun 22Jul Aug
MAPI.JK - Volume = 1,460,400.00
1,460,400
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 6,890.0
_____ 5,701.1
6,208.3
Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk [ MAPI.JK ] - Monthly - 8/7/2017 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 6,208.3
Volatility (+) : 0.1098
Volatility (-) : -0.0817
V-Ratio : 1.34
6,275
Apr Jul Oct 2017 Jul
MAPI.JK - Volume = 8,995,800.00
8,995,800
August 8, 2017
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Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI)-Daily, Buy on Weakness
Harga akan coba naik mendekati normal lower band pada uptrend channel .
Secara umum harga saham ini juga masih bergerak dalam pola uptrend channel yang
masih relatif valid (r-squared = 0.912) selama 38 hari terakhir dan bergerak normal
dalam rentang +/- 1.71 std.deviasi dari center line. Peluang harga keluar dari
pergerakan normal sekitar 8.8 % (sekitar 3 bar chart ). Rata-rata volatilitas normal
pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +1.19 % / - 0.64 % atau +87.78 rupiah / -
46.13 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif selama periode analisis)
sebagaimana sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 12.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Aug 7, 2017) 7,175(-1.4%) Trading range 7,130 – 7,290
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 12.07 Target
β (beta) 1.05 - Daily 7,260
Corelation 0.83 - Weekly 7,430
Period 38 - Monthly 7,580
r-squared 0.912 Stop loss 7,130
Volatility (+/-, %) +1.19 / -0.64
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +87.78 / -46.13
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 12. Daily trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 7,294.2
_____ 7,162.0
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Bank Negara Indo [ BBNI.JK ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 7,150 High: 7,300 Low: 7,150 Close: 7,175 Chg. -1.4%
Prev. Avg. Price: 7,208.3
Volatility (+) : 0.0119
Volatility (-) : -0.0064
V-Ratio : 1.85
7,175
7,132.42
7,131.04
7,198.31
7,293.64
7,356.68
7,356.68
7,515.05
7,582.32
May 8 15 22 29 Jun 12 19 Jul 10 17 24 31 Aug 7 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BBNI.JK - Volume = 9,831,800.00, Avg.Volume = 12,559,067.00
9,831,800
12,559,067
August 8, 2017
11
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Aliran dana masuk mulai terlihat dan volatilitas harga turun masih terlihat namun
relatif terbatas.
Pada Figure 13, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi indikator MFI optimized cenderung naik,
sementara itu indikator W%R optimized dan RSI optimized akan menguji support trend
line .Weekly resistance di 7,430 dengan catatan daily resistance dapat ditembus di
7,260. Sementara itu weekly support di 7,050 dengan catatan daily support di 7,130
juga dapat ditembus.Cut loss level di 7,130.
Figure 13. Daily, MFI optimized, W%R optimized, RSI optimized & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
BBNI.JK - MFI Smoothed = 37.78
37.7837
BBNI.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -45.74
-45.7412
BBNI.JK - RSI Smoothed = 36.51
36.5122
_____ 7,294.2
_____ 7,162.0
Bank Negara Indo [ BBNI.JK ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 7,150 High: 7,300 Low: 7,150 Close: 7,175 Chg. -1.4%
Prev. Avg. Price: 7,208.3
Volatility (+) : 0.0119
Volatility (-) : -0.0064
V-Ratio : 1.85 7,175
7,193.75
27 Mar 6 13 20 27 Apr 10 17 25 May 8 15 22 29 Jun 12 19 Jul 10 17 24 31Aug 7 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BBNI.JK - Volume = 9,831,800.00, Avg.Volume = 12,559,067.00
9,831,800
12,559,067
August 8, 2017
12
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Harga saat ini akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing
periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut koreksi
normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -0.64%, saat ini di level -1.4 %. Sementara itu
pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal sekitar -2.20 %, saat ini sekitar -1.4 %. Dengan
demikian potensi koreksi makin terbatas. Pada Figure 14,15 dan 16 terlihat perkiraan
normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 14. Daily : 7,130 – 7,260 Figure 15. Weekly : 7,050 – 7,430 Figure 16. Monthly : 6,800 – 7,580
x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 7,294.2
_____ 7,162.0
7,260.4
7,129.1
7,208.3
Bank Negara Indo [ BBNI.JK ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 7,150
Prev. Avg. Price: 7,208.3
Volatility (+) : 0.0119
Volatility (-) : -0.0064
V-Ratio : 1.85
7,175
17 24 31Aug 7
BBNI.JK - Volume = 9,831,800.00
9,831,800
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 7,434.5
_____ 7,049.4
7,208.3
Bank Negara Indo [ BBNI.JK ] - Weekly - 8/13/2017 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 7,208.3
Volatility (+) : 0.0314
Volatility (-) : -0.0220
V-Ratio : 1.42
7,175
13 May Jun 22Jul Aug
BBNI.JK - Volume = 9,831,800.00
9,831,800
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 7,905.2
_____ 6,705.5
7,250
7,577.6
6,977.8
Bank Negara Indo [ BBNI.JK ] - Monthly - 8/7/2017 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 7,250.0
Volatility (+) : 0.0904
Volatility (-) : -0.0751
V-Ratio : 1.20
7,175
Apr Jul Oct 2017 Jul
BBNI.JK - Volume = 55,605,900.00
55,605,900
August 8, 2017
13
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Bank CIMB Niaga (BNGA) - Daily, Buy on Weakness
Harga akan coba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada uptrend channel.
Secara umum harga saham ini akan mencoba bertahan diatas normal lower band pada
uptrend channel yang masih relatif valid dengan r-squared = 0.873 selama 172 hari
terakhir dan bergerak normal dalam rentang +/-1.53 std.deviasi dari centerline. Peluang
harga keluar dari pergerakan normalnya sekitar 12.67 % (sekitar 21 bar chart ). Rata-
rata volatilitas normal pergerakan harga saat ini sebesar antara +2.16 % / - 1.67 % atau
+27.61 rupiah / -21.35 rupiah (rata-rata pergerakan normal positif / negatif selama
periode analisis) sebagaimana terlihat pada Figure 17.
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Aug 7, 2017) 1,265(-1.6%) Normal trading range 1,240 – 1,300
Relative Avg. Price performance to JCI (%) 13.71 Target
β (beta) 1.03 - Daily 1,290
Corelation 0.89 - Weekly 1,335
Period 172 - Monthly 1,430
r-squared 0.873 Stop loss 1,230
Volatility (+/-, %) +2.16 / -1.67
Volatility (+/-, Rp.) +27.61 / -21.35
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 17. Daily Trend – Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Aliran dana keluar dan volatilitas harga turun masih terlihat namun mulai terbatas.
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 1,306.0
_____ 1,257.0
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Bank CIMB Niaga [ BNGA.JK ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 1,285 High: 1,310 Low: 1,260 Close: 1,265 Chg. -1.6%
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,278.3
Volatility (+) : 0.0216
Volatility (-) : -0.0167
V-Ratio : 1.30
1,265
1,260.77
1,253.23
1,248.86
1,239.64
1,349.85
1,349.85
1,446.46
1,460.05
Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BNGA.JK - Volume = 2,192,600.00, Avg.Volume = 5,711,257.00
2,192,600
5,711,257
August 8, 2017
14
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Pada Figure 18, terlihat dari hasil optimalisasi, indikator MFI Optimized , indikator W%R
optimized dan indikator RSI Optimized akan menguji support trend line. Hal ini juga
ditunjang. Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi koreksi mulai terbatas. Perkiraan daily
resistance di 1,290 sebelum ke weekly resistance di 1,335. Daily support di 1,240 dan
weekly support di 1,230.Cut loss level di 1,230.
Figure 18. Daily MFI optimized , W%R optimized, RSI optimized & Bollinger Band optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
BNGA.JK - MFI Smoothed = 24.11
24.1079
BNGA.JK - Will%R Smoothed = -70.58
-70.5796
BNGA.JK - RSI Smoothed = 33.68
33.6751
_____ 1,300.3
_____ 1,260.0
Bank CIMB Niaga [ BNGA.JK ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 1,285 High: 1,310 Low: 1,260 Close: 1,265 Chg. -1.6%
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,278.3
Volatility (+) : 0.0172
Volatility (-) : -0.0144
V-Ratio : 1.20
1,265
1,270.88
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Optimization Trading System - ©2010
BNGA.JK - Volume = 2,192,600.00, Avg.Volume = 5,711,257.00
2,192,600
5,711,257
August 8, 2017
15
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal maksimal/minimal dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Harga akan coba naik dan bertahan diatas rata-rata pada masing-masing periode.
Untuk mampu naik lebih lanjut, harga saham saat ini harus mampu minimal bertahan
diatas rata-rata masing-masing periode (positive area) . Jika dilihat lebih lanjut koreksi
normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -0.1.67%, saat ini di level -1.6 %.Sementara itu
pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal sekitar -3.51 %, saat ini baru -1.6 %.Dengan
demikan potensi koreksi harga masih terlihat namun mulai terbatas. Pada Figure 19,20
dan 21 terlihat perkiraan normal trading range untuk masing-masing periode.
Figure 19. Daily : 1,240 – 1,290 Figure 20. Weekly : 1,230 – 1,335 Figure 21. Monthly : 1,185 – 1,430
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Buy: : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area. Sell: : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area. BoW: : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area. SoS: : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area. Trading Buy: : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara. Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 1,335.7
_____ 1,233.4
1,278.3
Bank CIMB Niaga [ BNGA.JK ] - Weekly - 8/13/2017 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,278.3
Volatility (+) : 0.0449
Volatility (-) : -0.0351
V-Ratio : 1.28
1,265
13 May Jun 22Jul Aug
BNGA.JK - Volume = 2,192,600.00
2,192,600
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 1,432.7
_____ 1,186.6
1,278.3
Bank CIMB Niaga [ BNGA.JK ] - Monthly - 8/7/2017 Open:
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,281.7
Volatility (+) : 0.1179
Volatility (-) : -0.0742
V-Ratio : 1.59
1,265
Apr Jul Oct 2017 Jul
BNGA.JK - Volume = 25,813,300.00
25,813,300
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
_____ 1,306.0
_____ 1,257.0
1,278.3
1,292.3
1,243.9
Bank CIMB Niaga [ BNGA.JK ] - Daily - 8/7/2017 Open: 1,285
Prev. Avg. Price: 1,278.3
Volatility (+) : 0.0216
Volatility (-) : -0.0167
V-Ratio : 1.30
1,265
17 24 31Aug 7
BNGA.JK - Volume = 2,192,600.00
2,192,600
August 8, 2017
16
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 25. Energy price
Note: The latest figure for India are August 4th, 2017
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 27. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13,200
13,300
13,400
13,500
13,600
13,700
13,800
5,400
5,500
5,600
5,700
5,800
5,900
6,000
5/8 6/5 7/3 7/31
(IDR) (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
-0.5 -1.6 -1.1
5.3
-1.2 -2.2
-8.4
-14.8 -16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative(%, %p) (%, %p) (%, %p)
0 8
-26 -22
-1
-136
-352
-2
-84
-207
6
-373 -400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn)
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
5/8 6/5 7/3 7/31
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
5/8 6/5 7/3 7/31
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
90
97
104
111
5/8 6/5 7/3 7/31
Silver Gold Platinum(D-3M=100)
August 8, 2017
17
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,749 6,352,159 -0.5 -1.6 -1.1 6.1 16.5 14.4 2.6 0.0 18.8 9.7
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 18,625 459,200 0.3 -0.4 0.7 23.3 18.5 20.0 3.4 3.5 20.4 18.8
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 13,175 307,417 0.8 -3.5 -0.6 15.6 19.6 15.6 1.8 1.9 10.3 12.4
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 14,900 367,571 -0.2 0.8 -1.0 24.4 10.9 13.1 1.9 2.2 20.2 18.0
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 7,175 133,804 -1.4 -3.7 6.7 27.0 9.1 10.1 1.2 1.4 13.9 14.4
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 2,630 27,852 -0.4 1.2 5.2 38.8 13.3 13.1 1.0 1.3 7.6 10.5
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,400 395,481 -2.0 -4.2 -10.1 -13.7 34.8 29.7 13.0 11.1 38.6 38.0
Gudang Garam GGRM 69,500 133,724 -3.0 -8.7 -9.0 2.5 18.4 18.2 3.1 3.1 17.3 17.7
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8,275 96,502 -0.3 -0.9 -2.6 -7.3 27.8 24.8 5.7 4.9 21.8 21.0
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 8,200 71,999 -0.3 -2.1 -6.3 -2.4 18.3 16.2 2.4 2.3 14.7 14.6
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,695 79,453 -4.5 -2.3 4.3 -1.2 30.9 31.4 6.0 5.9 20.6 19.8
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 47,075 359,182 -1.1 -3.8 -2.1 3.2 46.3 49.2 62.9 65.6 134.1 142.2
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 15,050 28,967 -0.5 2.2 -0.3 -0.5 14.8 13.5 1.9 1.6 14.1 11.7
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,375 9,381 -2.1 -2.5 -3.8 -7.1 20.0 12.1 1.6 1.2 7.9 9.7
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,385 13,192 1.5 -5.5 -14.0 -12.9 22.5 20.8 3.9 3.4 18.3 16.2
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 3,390 36,232 -1.2 0.9 5.9 -7.1 60.8 122.4 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.2
Jasa Marga JSMR 5,350 38,830 -2.3 -8.5 1.4 -3.4 15.6 18.9 2.3 2.5 15.7 13.5
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,120 51,392 -1.4 -5.8 -9.4 -36.7 15.3 10.6 1.5 1.2 9.8 12.1
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 6,450 29,228 -3.4 -4.4 -9.2 7.9 17.4 23.4 14.3 12.5 83.6 62.5
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4,670 470,736 0.0 -0.4 0.9 7.8 20.3 20.0 4.7 4.9 24.3 25.8
Soechi Lines SOCI 290 2,047 0.0 -4.0 0.0 -31.6 8.2 4.4 0.6 #N/A N/A
7.4 10.1
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 344 8,905 1.2 -0.6 -1.7 -27.1 31.7 17.5 2.6 2.3 8.6 12.5
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 10,575 62,726 2.4 6.3 3.7 2.2 12.0 18.1 1.9 2.1 16.3 11.1
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 2,790 45,750 -0.7 4.5 -13.4 -27.9 22.6 16.6 3.6 2.8 16.5 18.5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 18,275 67,275 0.8 4.4 -0.5 0.1 14.6 22.3 2.2 2.5 15.5 10.7
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,140 13,008 -3.4 -2.1 -18.0 -21.9 7.7 8.1 1.9 1.3 28.6 17.1
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 20,600 23,276 0.0 3.0 12.9 65.8 10.4 8.2 1.5 1.8 15.0 21.4
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,850 59,174 -1.1 3.6 14.9 61.6 12.0 10.7 1.3 1.3 11.1 11.9
Aneka Tambang ANTM 650 15,620 -1.5 -5.8 -8.5 -20.2 298.3 57.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2
Vale Indonesia INCO 2,370 23,549 -3.7 -2.1 27.1 -9.5 N/A 177.9 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.2
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 13,750 31,682 1.7 5.0 10.9 32.9 13.1 9.3 2.5 2.4 20.5 27.8
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 28,700 107,055 -1.7 -4.7 5.5 65.9 15.8 15.5 1.9 2.4 12.7 15.8
AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,600 26,401 0.8 -4.3 4.3 -1.5 23.5 22.8 3.5 3.4 15.7 15.6
Global Mediacom BMTR 515 7,312 2.0 -1.0 -12.0 -52.1 41.8 N/A 0.9 N/A 2.0 N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 11,200 32,681 -1.5 -11.6 -12.5 -46.2 21.9 15.5 23.8 11.9 136.4 86.5
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,590 22,699 -0.3 -11.7 -10.7 -26.7 17.7 13.7 2.7 2.2 15.4 16.4
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 580 3,119 -1.7 -9.4 -10.1 -67.8 211.4 46.1 3.3 1.3 1.6 1.2
Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,300 33,630 -1.3 -2.5 -3.0 -28.6 27.2 19.6 11.9 8.5 45.7 45.3
Siloam International Hospital SILO 9,000 11,706 -3.2 -6.7 -16.3 -12.5 150.3 89.3 4.5 3.6 3.5 4.2
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,765 33,970 -1.4 -1.4 -1.7 -16.0 18.8 13.1 1.6 1.4 9.1 11.3
Adhi Karya ADHI 2,060 7,335 -3.3 -7.2 -5.9 -25.9 23.6 11.9 1.4 1.2 5.9 9.9
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 350 6,877 -1.1 8.7 10.1 -33.3 13.6 8.1 1.0 0.9 7.5 11.3
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,055 19,581 -0.9 1.9 -11.0 -28.5 19.9 16.5 2.2 1.5 9.8 10.0
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 735 16,962 0.0 2.8 5.8 -37.7 18.6 15.4 0.9 0.8 5.0 5.6
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 2,990 18,538 -2.0 -1.3 -9.7 -29.3 23.1 13.5 2.4 1.7 14.4 12.7
Pakuwon Jati PWON 690 33,230 -1.4 -2.8 6.2 8.7 16.3 17.4 3.1 3.1 21.0 18.8
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,005 14,499 1.0 2.6 -16.9 -43.4 61.3 40.6 3.1 2.1 5.1 5.8
Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,980 17,761 -1.0 -4.8 -10.0 -34.8 14.4 14.1 1.8 1.4 12.9 10.1
Waskita Karya WSKT 2,250 30,541 -1.3 -5.9 0.9 -19.6 17.3 12.2 3.1 2.0 16.6 18.0
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 7,900 319,820 1.6 -0.9 -10.0 -0.3 22.1 16.4 3.0 2.6 14.2 16.1
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
August 8, 2017
18
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Sector performance
Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,729.7 0.1 SDRA IJ 885 5,824 9.94
Mining 1,492.8 -0.5
BJBR IJ 2250 21,817 9.76
Basic-Industry 609.9 0.4 KPIG IJ 1270 8,752 7.63
Miscellaneous Industry 1,358.4 1.2 AGRO IJ 565 10,119 7.62
Consumer Goods 2,371.1 -1.5 RALS IJ 950 6,741 6.1
Property & Construction 496.3 -0.2
DOID IJ 915 7,783 5.78
Infrastructure 1,205.9 -0.7 BKSL IJ 114 6,299 5.56
Finance 966.0 -0.3 HITS IJ 770 5,468 5.48
Trade 911.1 -0.6 MAYA IJ 3570 17,562 4.7
Composite 5,749.3 -0.5 RIMO IJ 320 13,100 4.58 Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
ASII IJ 1.6 7,900 SMMA IJ -15.3 8,000
BMRI IJ 0.8 13,175 HMSP IJ -2.0 3,400
BJBR IJ 9.8 2,250 GGRM IJ -3.0 69,500
SMGR IJ 2.4 10,575 UNVR IJ -1.1 47,075
TPIA IJ 1.7 26,175 KLBF IJ -4.5 1,695 Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
12:25am USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
2:00am USD Consumer Credit m/m 15.6B 18.4B
6:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 1.2%
6:50am JPY Bank Lending y/y 3.3% 3.3%
6:50am JPY Current Account 1.51T 1.40T
8:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence 9
Tentative CNY Trade Balance 292B 294B
10:45am JPY 30-y Bond Auction 0.88|3.6
Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance 45.3B 42.8B
12:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 49.8 50.0
12:45pm CHF Unemployment Rate 3.2% 3.2%
1:00pm EUR German Trade Balance 22.3B 20.3B
1:45pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -66.4B
1:45pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.1B -4.9B
5:00pm USD NFIB Small Business Index 103.6 103.6
7:15pm CAD Housing Starts 206K 213K
9:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.66M 5.67M
8th-12th USD Mortgage Delinquencies 4.71%
9:00pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 50.6 50.2
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time
Source: Forex Factory
August 8, 2017
19
Embun Pagi
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
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