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Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts

August 2015 Research Services Department

Foreword This report reviews recent trends in inflation and presents the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The analysis is based on trends in short-term domestic demand and supply indicators as well as imported inflation. These factors inform the assumptions for the short-term inflation forecasting model – Monthly Inflation Sub-Index Model (MISI).

Table of Contents

1.0 Review of Outturn 1

2.0 Factors underpinning the revised forecast 3

2.1 Trends in demand 3 2.2 Trends in supply 4 2.3 Import prices 5 2.4 Trends in Core Inflation 6

3.0 Revised Forecast 7

4.0 Summary and Conclusion 8

Appendices 9

Tables and figures Figure 1: Trend in monthly inflation 1

Figure 2: Regional Inflation 1

Figure 3: Inflation Contribution 2

Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand 3

Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales 4

Figure 6: International Commodity Prices 5

Figure 7: Core Inflation (12-month change) 6

Figure 8: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart 7

Figure 9: Trends in selected agriculture production 9


August 2015 Research Services Department 1

1.0 Review of Outturn For August 2015, there was inflation of 0.8 per cent, in comparison to the 1.1 per cent for August 2014 and average inflation of 0.6 per cent for August of the last five years. Consequent on the August 2015 outturn, annual point-to-point inflation was 3.5 per cent, below the 9.8 per cent as at August 2014 and the 3.8 per cent at July 2015. Figure 1: Trend in monthly inflation

The Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area (GKMA) recorded the highest average increase in prices for August 2015, relative to the other regions. Inflation in the GKMA region largely reflected increases in Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) and Miscellaneous Goods & Services (MIS). The increase was partly offset by a decline in Housing, Water, Electricity Gas & Other Fuels (HWEG) due to a decline in the cost of electricity. For the Rural Area (RA), the lower inflation was primarily as a result of a smaller rate of increase in FNB relative to the other regions. Figure 2: Regional Inflation

Inflation for August 2015 was above the average for the last 5 years.



Inflation in August 2015 was primarily driven by higher prices within FNB and MIS. The increase in FNB mainly reflected higher costs for domestic agricultural commodities. For MIS, the increase was mainly attributed to increases in the prices for health insurance and personal care products. The impact of these upward movements was partly offset by declines in HWEG and Transport (TRAN). HWEG declined as a result of a reduction in the rates for electricity. TRAN declined due to a fall in the price of petrol as well as a reduction in the cost of air travel. Figure 3: Inflation Contribution

Inflation for August 2015 mainly reflected increases in the cost of unprocessed food, health insurance and personal care products.

Blue bars = positive and Red bars = negative MIS= Miscellaneous Goods & Services, R&A=Restaurants & Accommodation Services, ED=Education, R&C=Recreation & Culture, COM=Communication, TRAN= Transport, HLTH=Health, FHERM=Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, HWEG=Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, C&F=Clothing & Footwear, ABT=Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, FNB=Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Source: STATIN



2.0 Factors underpinning the revised forecast

2.1 Trends in demand The three primary indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ showed mixed outturns. For the three months ended August, the 12-month average of the real value of imports and PAYE receipts declined by 2.0 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively. In contrast, the real value of debit and credit card transactions increased by 3.2 per cent as at August (Figure 5). Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand

Two of the three indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ declined in August.



2.2 Trends in supply For August 2015, data received from RADA indicated that the supplies of starchy foods and vegetables were largely in line or above seasonal levels. However, the prices of these commodities increased relative to the previous month, albeit at a lower rate when compared to July 2015. RADA’s forecast for September 2015 suggests that the supply of both starches and vegetables were primarily moderate to increasing. Specifically, these supplies were assessed to have been generally in line with or above seasonal levels. The survey undertaken by the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA) suggests further increases in agriculture prices in September 2015. In addition, information obtained from the Consumer Affairs Commission’s (CAC) price survey indicates an increase in agricultural prices during the month. In this regard, the Bank is therefore forecasting an increase in agriculture prices for September, albeit at a decelerated pace relative to August. Information from RADA indicates that prices for vegetable & starchy foods are expected to remain elevated in October as a result of the on-going dry spell. The 12-month average trend in industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy for industrial production, improved in August 2015 relative to the same measure three months prior (see Figure 5). Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales

There was a moderation in the rate of change of domestic agriculture commodity prices in August relative to the previous month. The indicator of industrial productivity improved in August 2015.



2.3 Import prices The average price of crude oil, as measured by the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was US$42.90 per barrel (bbl) at end-August 2015, a decline of 14.9 per cent relative to end-July 2015. WTI crude oil prices largely reflected (i) continued speculation that the global glut will be prolonged and heightened concerns surrounding China’s growth prospect. For September 2015, the average price of crude oil increased by 6.1 per cent to an average of US$45.51 per barrel. This uptick in prices was mainly underpinned by (i) an indication that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may possibly cut its oil production, and (ii) the Energy Information Administration’s recent downward revision of its estimate of the USA’s oil production for 2015. Figure 6: International Commodity Prices

Oil prices declined in August but increased in September 2015.



The Bank’s grains price index declined by 7.2 per cent for August 2015 relative to the preceding month. This was mainly underpinned by declines of 9.5 per cent, 9.2 per cent and 4.9 per cent in the prices of corn, wheat and rice.1 The decline in grains prices was largely due to the increase in crop yield in major harvesting regions arising from favourable weather conditions. For September 2015, the grains price index declined by 1.9 per cent. This movement was primarily underpinned by declines of 4.3 per cent and 0.4 per cent in the prices of rice and the average price of wheat, the impact of which was partly offset by an increase of 1.9 per cent in the price of corn. The supplies of corn and wheat were higher than anticipated in the USA due to favourable weather conditions which resulted in record crop yields. Corn prices increased due to lower than expected crop yields in the USA.

2.4 Trends in Core Inflation For August 2015, the monthly measure of CPI without Food and Fuel (CPI-FF) increased to 0.4 per cent relative to 0.3 per cent in the previous month. This outturn was mainly underpinned by the acceleration in inflation among non-processed food items during the month. However, CPI without Agriculture and Fuel (CPI-AF) and the Trimmed mean (TRIM) were unchanged at 0.3 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, relative to the previous month. At end-August 2015, the annual point-to-point measures of CPI-AF and TRIM were 4.3 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively, in comparison to 4.5 per cent and 3.0 per cent at end-July 2015 (see Figure 7). However, CPI-FF was unchanged at 3.9 per cent relative to July 2015. All three measures were lower when compared to August 2014. Notably, there has been a trend deceleration in annual core inflation since August 2014. Figure 7: Core Inflation (12-month change)

1 The Bank’s grain index is comprised of wheat (50%), rice (30%) and corn (20%).

The grains prices index declined in both August and September 2015. Two of the three measures of annual core inflation declined for August 2015 relative to the previous month. CPIFF was unchanged.



3.0 Revised Forecast Inflation for September 2015 is expected to emanate mainly from increases in the prices of domestic agricultural commodities along with a seasonal increase in tuition fees and other back to school expenses. These increases should be partly offset by declines in the prices of household energy and automotive fuel, respectively. Inflation in October should primarily reflect moderated increases in domestic agriculture commodity prices

Inflation for FY2015/16 is projected to fall within the target range of 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent. The overall risks to the inflation forecast are assessed to be balanced (see Figure 8). The major downside risks include the possibility of lower than projected international commodity prices, better than anticipated impact of developments in the Agro-parks on domestic agriculture supply and weaker than expected demand conditions. The main upside risks to the inflation forecast are an intensification of adverse weather conditions, higher than anticipated exchange rate depreciation and increased level of uncertainty and heightened inflation expectations due to an anticipated general election.

Figure 8: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart

Headline inflation for FY2015/16 is projected to be within the target range of 5.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent.



4.0 Summary and Conclusion

For August 2015, the inflation outturn was 0.8 per cent driven primarily by higher prices within FNB and MIS. The increase in FNB mainly reflected higher costs for domestic agricultural commodities. For MIS, the increase was mainly attributed to increases in the prices for health insurance and personal care products. The impact of these upward movements was partly offset by declines in HWEG and TRAN. HWEG declined as a result of a reduction in electricity rates. TRAN declined due to a fall in petrol prices as well as a reduction in the cost of air travel. Inflation has been projected to increase for September largely due to higher agricultural prices in addition to a seasonal rise in tuition fees and other back to school expenses. For October, inflation should primarily reflect a moderation in the rate of change in domestic agriculture commodity prices relative to the previous month as well as an increase in electricity rates. Inflation for the fiscal year is projected to remain within the target range of 5.5 per cent to 7.5 percent.



Appendices Figure 9: Trends in selected agriculture production

1/ 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD

C.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jun-12 183.83 182.84 0.58 1.47 1.51 6.71 16.63 1.47 3.16

Jul-12 183.21 183.27 -0.34 0.72 1.18 5.53 7.05 1.12 2.81Aug-12 184.07 183.70 0.47 0.71 0.96 5.44 6.85 1.60 3.29Sep-12 187.61 184.97 1.93 2.06 1.16 6.65 6.74 3.55 5.28Oct-12 189.40 187.03 0.95 3.38 2.05 7.17 6.69 4.54 6.28Nov-12 190.57 189.20 0.62 3.53 2.99 7.39 6.72 5.19 6.94Dec-12 192.47 190.81 0.99 2.59 3.16 8.00 6.89 6.23 8.00

2013 Jan-13 193.82 192.29 0.70 2.34 2.81 8.37 7.04 6.98 0.70Feb-13 195.03 193.77 0.62 2.34 2.42 8.16 7.07 7.65 1.33Mar-13 197.72 195.52 1.38 2.73 2.47 9.13 7.23 9.13 2.73Apr-13 198.55 197.10 0.42 2.44 2.50 9.15 7.40 0.42 3.16May-13 199.62 198.63 0.54 2.36 2.51 9.22 7.60 0.97 3.72Jun-13 199.93 199.37 0.15 1.12 1.97 8.76 7.77 1.12 3.88Jul-13 200.91 200.16 0.49 1.19 1.55 9.66 8.11 1.62 4.39Aug-13 201.63 200.82 0.36 1.01 1.11 9.54 8.45 1.98 4.76Sep-13 207.24 203.26 2.78 3.66 1.95 10.46 8.76 4.82 7.67Oct-13 208.95 205.94 0.83 4.00 2.89 10.33 9.03 5.68 8.57Nov-13 209.54 208.58 0.28 3.92 3.86 9.95 9.24 5.98 8.87Dec-13 210.70 209.73 0.56 1.67 3.18 9.47 9.36 6.57 9.47

2014 Jan-14 211.78 210.67 0.51 1.35 2.30 9.27 9.43 7.11 0.51Feb-14 211.90 211.46 0.06 1.13 1.38 8.65 9.47 7.17 0.57Mar-14 214.21 212.63 1.09 1.67 1.38 8.34 9.39 8.34 1.67Apr-14 213.61 213.24 -0.28 0.86 1.22 7.59 9.26 -0.28 1.38May-14 215.66 214.49 0.96 1.77 1.43 8.03 9.15 0.67 2.35Jun-14 215.86 215.04 0.09 0.77 1.13 7.97 9.08 0.77 2.45Jul-14 218.92 216.81 1.42 2.48 1.67 8.96 9.03 2.19 3.90Aug-14 221.30 218.69 1.09 2.62 1.96 9.75 9.05 3.31 5.03Sep-14 225.86 222.03 2.06 4.63 3.25 8.99 8.93 5.44 7.20Oct-14 226.09 224.42 0.10 3.28 3.51 8.20 8.76 5.55 7.31Nov-14 224.88 225.61 -0.54 1.62 3.16 7.32 8.54 4.98 6.73Dec-14 224.09 225.02 -0.35 -0.78 1.35 6.36 8.27 4.61 6.36

2015 Jan-15 222.98 223.98 -0.50 -1.38 -0.19 5.29 7.94 4.09 -0.50Feb-15 221.53 222.87 -0.65 -1.49 -1.22 4.54 7.59 3.41 -1.14Mar-15 222.69 222.40 0.52 -0.63 -1.16 3.96 7.21 3.96 -0.63Apr-15 223.06 222.43 0.17 0.03 -0.70 4.42 6.94 0.17 -0.46May-15 224.22 223.32 0.52 1.22 0.20 3.97 6.60 0.69 0.06Jun-15 225.30 224.19 0.48 1.17 0.81 4.37 6.30 1.17 0.54Jul-15 227.23 225.58 0.86 1.87 1.42 3.80 5.88 2.04 1.40Aug-15 229.01 227.18 0.78 2.14 1.73 3.48 5.36 2.84 2.19

1/ December 2006 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: STATIN

Table 1A

Aug. 2015JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES

Page 1 of 11


CPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jun-12 288.44 286.99 0.64 1.16 1.07 5.46 14.61 1.16 2.43

Jul-12 279.14 284.73 -3.22 -2.37 -0.09 1.73 5.01 -2.10 -0.87Aug-12 281.52 283.03 0.85 -1.78 -1.00 1.93 4.73 -1.27 -0.02Sep-12 283.52 281.39 0.71 -1.71 -1.95 1.91 4.43 -0.57 0.69Oct-12 284.85 283.30 0.47 2.05 -0.50 1.88 4.15 -0.10 1.16Nov-12 285.76 284.71 0.32 1.51 0.59 1.81 3.85 0.22 1.48Dec-12 286.62 285.74 0.30 1.09 1.55 1.79 3.56 0.52 1.79

2013 Jan-13 289.56 287.31 1.03 1.65 1.42 2.41 3.31 1.55 1.03Feb-13 291.62 289.26 0.71 2.05 1.60 2.71 3.09 2.27 1.74Mar-13 293.70 291.62 0.71 2.47 2.06 3.00 2.90 3.00 2.47Apr-13 295.67 293.66 0.67 2.11 2.21 3.41 2.76 0.67 3.16May-13 296.64 295.34 0.33 1.72 2.10 3.50 2.63 1.00 3.50Jun-13 298.15 296.82 0.51 1.52 1.78 3.36 2.46 1.52 4.02Jul-13 298.07 297.62 -0.03 0.81 1.35 6.78 2.88 1.49 3.99Aug-13 299.39 298.53 0.44 0.93 1.08 6.35 3.24 1.94 4.46Sep-13 300.75 299.40 0.46 0.87 0.87 6.08 3.59 2.40 4.93Oct-13 303.82 301.32 1.02 1.93 1.24 6.66 3.98 3.45 6.00Nov-13 305.30 303.29 0.49 1.98 1.59 6.84 4.40 3.95 6.52Dec-13 306.59 305.24 0.42 1.94 1.95 6.97 4.83 4.39 6.97


2015 Jan-15 322.57 320.96 0.62 1.08 0.93 4.53 5.42 3.59 0.62Feb-15 323.37 322.17 0.25 1.14 0.99 4.42 5.27 3.85 0.87Mar-15 324.48 323.47 0.34 1.22 1.15 4.20 5.12 4.20 1.22Apr-15 325.49 324.44 0.31 0.90 1.09 4.17 4.99 0.31 1.53May-15 325.86 325.28 0.12 0.77 0.96 4.10 4.87 0.43 1.65Jun-15 326.83 326.06 0.29 0.72 0.80 3.96 4.75 0.72 1.95Jul-15 327.76 326.82 0.29 0.70 0.73 3.88 4.59 1.01 2.24Aug-15 329.13 327.91 0.42 1.00 0.81 3.93 4.44 1.44 2.67

1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: BOJ

Table 1B

Aug. 2015JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL

Page 2 of 11


CPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change

Jun-12 323.85 320.97 1.17 1.87 1.43 6.91 16.27 1.87 3.47

Jul-12 319.42 321.13 -1.37 0.15 1.04 5.03 6.72 0.48 2.06Aug-12 322.46 321.91 0.95 0.73 0.92 5.42 6.61 1.43 3.03Sep-12 325.23 322.37 0.86 0.43 0.44 5.59 6.49 2.30 3.91Oct-12 327.13 324.94 0.58 2.41 1.19 5.43 6.35 2.90 4.52Nov-12 328.75 327.04 0.49 1.95 1.59 5.37 6.20 3.41 5.04Dec-12 330.01 328.63 0.38 1.47 1.94 5.44 6.08 3.81 5.44



2015 Jan-15 377.56 375.72 0.54 1.26 1.27 5.82 6.28 4.87 0.54Feb-15 378.63 377.24 0.28 1.22 1.21 5.73 6.20 5.16 0.83Mar-15 379.87 378.69 0.33 1.16 1.21 5.51 6.11 5.51 1.16Apr-15 381.15 379.88 0.34 0.95 1.11 5.49 6.07 0.34 1.50May-15 381.69 380.90 0.14 0.81 0.97 5.10 5.98 0.48 1.64Jun-15 382.67 381.83 0.26 0.73 0.83 4.81 5.88 0.73 1.90Jul-15 383.66 382.67 0.26 0.66 0.73 4.54 5.71 1.00 2.17Aug-15 384.98 383.77 0.34 0.86 0.75 4.35 5.52 1.35 2.52

1/January 2000 = 100* Point to Point

# Moving averageSource: BOJ

JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUELTable 1C

Aug. 2015

Page 3 of 11

GKMA OUC RA

Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%)

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 3.28 1.87 1.28

01.1 Food 3.41 1.99 1.35Bread and Cereals 0.46 0.08 0.10Meat 0.44 0.34 0.08Fish and Seafood 0.18 0.14 0.09Milk, Cheese and Eggs 0.09 0.15 0.37Oils and Fats 0.17 0.10 0.36Fruit 1.05 1.12 0.91Vegetables and Starchy Foods 10.15 7.57 6.67

Vegetables 12.14 9.63 7.88Starchy Foods 3.14 1.97 3.30

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 0.79 0.08 0.11Food Products n.e.c. 1.04 0.13 0.29

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 0.65 0.11 0.20Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.32 0.29 0.25Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 0.78 0.05 0.11

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 0.55 0.07 0.1203 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 0.20 0.74 0.1503.1 Clothing 0.22 1.05 0.2203.2 Footwear 0.14 0.16 0.0404 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS -1.73 -2.11 -2.8904.1 Rentals for Housing 0.02 0.01 -0.0104.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.15 0.02 0.0504.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.53 1.52 1.5104.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels -4.94 -4.58 -4.5105 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC 0.16 0.24 0.1105.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.11 0.06 0.0705.2 Household Textiles 0.02 2.23 -0.0205.3 Household Appliances 0.38 0.24 0.2905.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.06 0.59 0.0705.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.14 0.13 0.6805.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 0.16 0.07 0.1006 HEALTH 0.24 0.08 0.0406.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 0.49 0.14 0.0706.2 Health Services 0.02 0.05 0.0707 TRANSPORT -0.58 -0.65 -0.4108 COMMUNICATION 0.05 -0.03 -0.0809 RECREATION & CULTURE 0.20 0.61 0.4010 EDUCATION 0.02 -0.02 0.0011 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 0.17 0.08 0.16

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 1.94 0.83 0.99

ALL DIVISIONS 1.40 0.58 0.36

Table 2Regional Inflation

Aug-MTH. 2015

Page 4 of 11

Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n

the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation

01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 37.45 2.13 0.80 133.57

01.1 Food 35.10 2.21 0.78 129.99Bread and Cereals 6.10 0.18 0.01 1.83Meat 7.66 0.26 0.02 3.27Fish and Seafood 5.33 0.14 0.01 1.24Milk, Cheese and Eggs 3.11 0.23 0.01 1.20Oils and Fats 1.64 0.25 0.00 0.70Fruit 1.14 1.03 0.01 1.96Vegetables and Starchy Foods 6.85 8.50 0.58 97.48

Vegetables 4.64 10.40 0.48 80.78Starchy Foods 2.21 2.94 0.06 10.87

Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery 1.72 0.31 0.01 0.89Food Products n.e.c. 1.55 0.51 0.01 1.33

01.2 Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.35 0.31 0.01 1.23Coffee, Tea and Cocoa 0.66 0.27 0.00 0.30Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices 1.69 0.34 0.01 0.96

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.24 0.00 0.5503 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.27 0.01 1.5203.1 Clothing 2.12 0.40 0.01 1.4203.2 Footwear 1.22 0.12 0.00 0.2504 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -2.27 -0.29 -48.3704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.00 0.00 0.0204.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.09 0.00 0.1204.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 1.55 0.02 3.4204.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -4.66 -0.33 -55.5605 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE 4.93 0.17 0.01 1.3905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.11 0.00 0.1305.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.60 0.00 0.3205.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.32 0.00 0.3005.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.15 0.00 0.0105.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.51 0.00 0.1305.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.10 0.00 0.5006 HEALTH 3.29 0.06 0.00 0.3306.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.22 0.00 0.4606.2 Health Services 2.07 0.03 0.00 0.1007 TRANSPORT 12.82 -0.51 -0.07 -11.0408 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.02 0.00 0.1109 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.38 0.01 2.1610 EDUCATION 2.14 0.01 0.00 0.0411 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.17 0.01 1.79

12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES 8.37 1.28 0.11 17.94

ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 0.78 0.60 100.00

Table 3AComponent Contribution to Inflation

Aug. 2015

Page 5 of 11

Weight in 2014 2015

the CPI MTH MTH






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 0.55 0.2403 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 0.28 0.2703.1 Clothing 2.12 0.32 0.4003.2 Footwear 1.22 0.23 0.1204 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -1.33 -2.2704.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.13 0.0004.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 0.26 0.0904.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 2.37 1.5504.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -2.91 -4.6605 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 0.38 0.1705.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 0.11 0.1105.2 Household Textiles 0.32 0.38 0.6005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 0.16 0.3205.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 0.15 0.1505.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 0.19 0.5105.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 0.50 0.1006 HEALTH 3.29 0.30 0.0606.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 0.54 0.2206.2 Health Services 2.07 0.14 0.0307 TRANSPORT 12.82 -0.24 -0.5108 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.00 0.0209 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 0.99 0.3810 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.0111 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 0.07 0.17



Inflation ComparisonTable 3B

Aug-MTH. 2014 & 2015

Page 6 of 11

Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n









ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 2.2 1.91 100.00

Table 5ACYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Jan-Aug. 2015

Page 7 of 11

Weight in 2014 2015

the CPI CYTD CYTD






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 2.99 4.1903 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 2.84 2.9903.1 Clothing 2.12 2.78 3.7303.2 Footwear 1.22 2.94 1.8904 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 2.19 -5.5904.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.76 0.6804.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 3.66 9.1004.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 5.78 1.2304.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 1.89 -11.7205 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 6.36 2.3205.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 2.72 2.0505.2 Household Textiles 0.32 3.24 2.3905.3 Household Appliances 0.56 3.86 3.0605.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 3.12 2.2205.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 3.09 2.9205.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 8.21 2.2106 HEALTH 3.29 2.35 1.5206.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 2.68 2.2006.2 Health Services 2.07 2.14 1.1707 TRANSPORT 12.82 2.30 -1.8408 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.02 0.0209 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 3.38 1.5710 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.0111 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 3.53 3.53



Table 5BCYTD Inflation Comparison

Jan-Aug. 2014 & 2015

Page 8 of 11

Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n









ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 2.84 2.40 100.00

Table 6AFYTD Component Contribution to Inflation

Apr-Aug. 2015

Page 9 of 11

Weight in 2014 2015

the CPI FYTD FYTD






02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 2.55 3.2703 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 1.52 1.4003.1 Clothing 2.12 1.88 2.0503.2 Footwear 1.22 0.97 0.4404 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -1.51 -1.4404.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 0.38 0.3304.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 1.54 0.6604.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 5.24 6.5704.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -4.00 -4.4805 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA 4.93 2.31 1.3705.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 1.54 0.9905.2 Household Textiles 0.32 1.77 1.0505.3 Household Appliances 0.56 1.95 2.0705.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 2.21 1.6605.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 1.35 1.7305.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 2.65 1.3406 HEALTH 3.29 1.76 0.8106.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 2.06 1.1806.2 Health Services 2.07 1.57 0.6407 TRANSPORT 12.82 1.25 -1.0208 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.02 0.0209 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 2.45 1.0610 EDUCATION 2.14 0.00 0.0111 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 1.58 0.66



Table 6BFYTD Inflation Comparison

Apr-Aug. 2014 & 2015

Page 10 of 11

Weight in Annual Weighted % Contrib'n







02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO 1.38 6.92 0.10 2.7403 CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 3.33 5.10 0.17 4.8803.1 Clothing 2.12 5.34 0.11 3.2503.2 Footwear 1.22 4.77 0.06 1.6704 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS 12.76 -9.46 -1.21 -34.6604.1 Rentals for Housing 3.52 1.08 0.04 1.0904.3 Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling 0.80 10.54 0.08 2.4204.4 Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling 1.32 -5.39 -0.07 -2.0404.5 Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels 7.12 -17.10 -1.22 -34.9505 FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN 4.93 4.30 0.21 6.0905.1 Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) 0.69 3.63 0.03 0.7205.2 Household Textiles 0.32 3.23 0.01 0.3005.3 Household Appliances 0.56 6.98 0.04 1.1205.4 Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils 0.05 3.55 0.00 0.0505.5 Tools and Equipment for House and Garden 0.15 4.67 0.01 0.2005.6 Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance 3.16 4.08 0.13 3.7006 HEALTH 3.29 2.62 0.09 2.4706.1 Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment 1.22 3.33 0.04 1.1706.2 Health Services 2.07 2.24 0.05 1.3307 TRANSPORT 12.82 0.32 0.04 1.1808 COMMUNICATION 3.99 0.05 0.00 0.0509 RECREATION & CULTURE 3.36 3.26 0.11 3.1510 EDUCATION 2.14 3.94 0.08 2.4211 RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES 6.19 4.47 0.28 7.94


ALL DIVISIONS 100.00 3.48 3.48 100.00

Table 7Annual Component Contribution to Inflation

Aug. 2015

Page 11 of 11

august 2015 research services departmentaugust 2015 research services department 6 the ank’s...

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