Hi there! The football season is upon us, but thefocus this month is very much on "following themoney" as it relates to the bookmakers' live racingmarkets. I've already introduced you to the concept viathe 16/1 system which, from some readers' feedback,has been extremely successful.

Regular contributor The Patriarch expands on thistheme this month and I introduce 2 other marketswhich could be exploited - Tote and Placepot..

If, like me, you've come across some really badsystems, don't chuck them away - in this age ofrecycling, turn them into lay systems - you'll find ahandicap system inside with the potential to be a greatlay system! First off, ‘Mr Tefal Head’ makes anappearance this month, introducing you to a whole newway to exploit winning favourites, and much morebesides. Enjoy the read . . .

Oh yes, do make sure you check out the letteraccompanying this issue. If you’ve ever wanted tomake money online but can’t be bothered with all thetechnical bits, this is for you!

And if you haven’t already, please make sure yousign up to the free weekly e-letter - there’s plenty ofstuff you can use between issues including system

updates and ways to tweak your approach to squeezeout those extra profits! Just go towww.canonburypublishing.com/wins

Mr Tefal Head reveals thehidden statistical patternsthat could make you bigmoney from horses,roulette and football

You’ve probably heard me mention Mr TefalHead (aka The Sequencer) and his strategy

before. In fact we’re currently beta testing thisapproach with a dozen WRWM guinea pigs! Welltoday I wanted to give you an introduction to theconcept of sequencing and its application tohorseracing and other betting opportunities.

So what is Sequencing? The Sequencer puts itsimply in the following equation:

“Sequencing = Probability + Averages + RandomNumbers.”

Confused? Let me give you a familiar example.Based upon past results we know that favourites willwin about 30% of the time. And it’s this familiarstatistic that forms the cornerstone of the sequencingmethodology. Working with this statistic, we canpredict, with an element of accuracy, when a favouritein a certain race is more likely to win the next race,based upon previous runnings. Let me give you arecent example. In the 5th race at Haydock, thefavourite has only won 3 times in the last 15 meetings,and has not won in the last 10 meetings. The likelihoodthat a favourite will win in the next few races increasesdramatically with each new meeting at Haydock.

So how do we take this knowledge and apply itto our betting? With our current sequencing trial, weare betting to 2.5% of the betting bank level stakes.Because the favourite has not won in his last 10runnings we can, alternatively, apply a progressivestaking system to the next favourite in race 5 at thenext meeting at Haydock, until a favourite obliges and

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In this issue:Discover the Hidden Statistical Patterns That

Could Make You Big Money From Horses,

Roulette and Football ..................................page 1

A Simple Way to Turn a Completely

Useless Handicap Backing Strategy into

a Winning Lay System!...............................page 3

Can You Really Turn Small Stakes into Big

Returns Using the Placepot? Maybe....... ....page 4

How I Picked out 40/1 Winners and 100/1 Placed

Horses Following the ‘Late Money ............page 7

Systems and Tipster Update........................page 9

Inside The Patriach’s Treasure Chest ..........page 11

What Really Wins MoneyAn Independent review of tipsters and betting systems

August 2006

redresses the balance.

06/05 26/05 27/05 08/06 09/06 10/06 06/07 07/07 08/07 16/07 22/07

1X Y X Y X X X YJ X X Y

2X X Y X X X X X X X Y

3Y X X X X X YC X X Y X

4Y Y X X X X X YJ X X X

5Y X X X X X X X X X X

6Y X X X X X X YJ Y X Y

7Y Y X X

In the above table, the X represents a losingfavourite and the Y represents a winning favourite. Therace numbers work from top to bottom, race 1, race 2,race 3, race 4, race 5, race 6 and race 7.

Looking at race 5, can you see that from the 6thMay meeting up to the last meeting at Haydock, thefavourite has lost in every race. At Haydock, afavourite has gone no more than 7 races withoutwinning. From the next meeting at Haydock onwards,we can confidently back the favourite in race 5,knowing a correction is imminent, maybe not at thenext meeting, but it is imminent.

In race 5 on 10th August 2006, the favourite, pricedat 3/1 was beaten by a neck into 2nd place. In the 5thrace on 11th August 2006, the joint favourites at 10/3came 1st and 2nd.

This winning favourite redresses, to some extent,the balance. From a progressive staking perspective,we would have backed the favourite who came 2nd, at3/1 to win a predetermined amount. That favourite lost.So we now back the next favourite (joint favourites) towin back our lost stake on the previous race and ournew target profit.

The problem with random events is ...they’re random!

OK, so we know that, on average, a favourite willwin 1 in 3 races, but this is where randomness comesin. The problem is when? This random aspect of theequation can be negated if we wait, as with the aboveexample, for an opportunity where the favourite hasnot won in some considerable time on a particular race.Having not won in the last 10, surely the favouritemust oblige soon in race 5?

TIP – the longer the sequence, the more accurateour future predictions can become!

This is a basic introduction to sequencing as itrelates to horse racing. There are other elements whichmust be considered in formulating a sequencing bet.But to give away all The Sequencer’s knowledgewould put him out of work! We are currently puttingThe Sequencer’s powers of statistical analysis to thetest with a handpicked selection of WRWM guineapigs! Look out for more info very soon...

SEQUENCING AND ROULETTE: Sequencing is ideally suited to games such as

roulette. Here’s one such system:

Starting with a $200 betting bank (you can get thisamount from www.888.com by depositing $200, whereyou immediately get a bonus of $200).

Go to an online casino such as www.888.com

This is the roulette screen. We are interested in the2/1 bets and the columns that begin 1, 2 & 3 and end34, 35 & 36.

We will be betting on these columns, so getyourself a notepad and paper.

Draw 3 columns and title them 1-34, 2-35 and 3-36.

Now without betting, press the Spin button andplace an X under the column which contains thewinning number. Eg: 20 comes up, so we place an Xunder the 2-35 column.

Continue spinning without placing a bet, until oneof the columns hasn’t won for 5 rounds. Now beginplacing your bets on that column by following thestaking plan below, until that column produces awinner.

In the above screenshot, I have made $15 in lessthan 30 minutes using this method. Here are my actualcolumns.

COLUMN 1 COLUMN 2 COLUMN 3(1-34) (2-35) (3-36)

X 1 loss 1

X 2 losses 2

X 3 losses 3

1 4 losses X

X 5 (begin betting next turn on this column) 1

X 6 2

X 7 3

1 WINS –NEW 4SEQUENCE BEGINS

3 1 X

2

4 2 X

5 – begin betting next turn on this column 3 X

X – SEQUENCE ENDS 4 X

X 5 – begin betting this 1column next time round

1 6 2

2 X – SEQUENCE 3ENDS

3 X 4

4 X 5-begin betting thiscolumn next round

5 X 6

6 1 X (we win –sequence ends)

STAKING PLANBet 1 - 1bet 2 - 2bet 3 - 3 bet 4 - 4bet 5 - 6 bet 6 - 9bet 7 - 13bet 8 - 20bet 9 - 30bet 10 - 45bet 11 - 67bet 12 - back to bet 1bet 13 - back to bet 2etc

This is the power of sequencing. It can be appliedto odds/evens or red/black bets in roulette. The longerthe sequential pattern we build up, the more confidentwe can be in the sequence ending. Cast your mindback to Haydock. This was a strong sequence – 10favourites on the trot haven’t won on Race 5.Obviously if we only had a sequence of 3 losingfavourites, this would be far too early in a sequence forus to build up a pattern.

SEQUENCING AND FOOTBALL:Here’s a quick and easy use of sequencing for

football. Using the Racing and Football Outlook or anonline resource site such as www.betdevil.com, theteams last 6 match performances will look somethinglike this:

TEAM AWDWWDLTEAM BWWWDDD

Where W indicates a win, D indicates a draw and Lindicates a loss.

We now score the last 6 matches thus:

For every win we allocate 1 pointFor every draw we allocate 0For every loss we allocate -1 point.

TEAM A would have scored 1+0+1+1+0-1 = 2 pointsTEAM B will have scored 1+1+1+0+0 = 3 points.

The difference here is -1 point in favour of Team Bwhich is the away team

Using the following table we can calculate thelikely results:

+12 to + 5 points indicates a strong home win+4 to +2 points indicates a home win+1 to -2 points indicates a draw-3 to -5 points indicates an away win-6 to -12 points indicates a strong away win

In our example, the likelihood is for a draw in thismatch.

This is another simple application of sequencing,which used in conjunction with other research canpoint you the right direction. Incidentally,www.betdevil.com’s football ratings include anelement of sequencing in tandem with other indicatorsto give an accurate (and free) analysis of up andcoming matches. Remember, we are currently trialingThe Sequencer and hope to launch a full advisoryservice in the Autumn. Watch out for more details!

System Surgery!

A Simple Way to Turn aCompletely UselessHandicap BackingStrategy into a WinningLay System!

Long gone are the days where you had to throw abad selection system into the bin. With the bet

exchanges we can now turn its failings into awinning lay system! Let me explain how . . .

Recently I’ve been trialing a number of systems inthe hope that they might solve my number one racinggripe: handicap races! I struggle to find a way to profitfrom them because of their inherent competitiveness.Well, I came across this handicap system with itssimplified rules and thought I was on to a winner:

• Look at handicap races with between 8-12 runners.

• Look at the top 3rd of the race card where we willfind those horses carrying the most weight. Eg in a 9runner race, we are interested in the top 3 horses inthe racing card.

3please turn over

• Make a note of any of the horses who have come 1st,2nd or 3rd in their last run out.

• If there is a qualifying horse, or multiple qualifiers,choose the horse with the biggest odds in the bettingforecast.

Simple, I thought. Let’s hope it uncovers somevalue each way bets. My first test day began well witha 6/4 winner, 9/2 2nd place (we get our stake backeach way for the place), and a 1st at 8/11. The other 9selections all lost.

Second day: 3 winners at 9/4, 2/1 and 4/1, but 14other selections lost. And so it went on. During my testperiod, I had 103 selections, 16 of which were winners,with a massive 70 horses actually unplaced! Thewinners included nice prices like 14/1, 7/1,7/1 and 4/1.These prices are not enough to negate the massive eachway losses incurred by the overwhelming number oflosers. But it occurred to me that this is turning into alay system, and not just a lay system, a workableplace-only lay system to boot!

Place-only laying – the liability problemsolved . . .

The eternal struggle layers have is controllingliabilities. One layed horse coming first can undo a lotof previously accumulated profits, especially if thelayed horse is priced 5/1 or bigger. The prices of place-only horses are always lower than those in the livemarket, and depending on how many places are beingpaid out for – 2, 3 or 4 (the latter in handicap races),we can lay at very small odds, with a liability which isfar easier to live with.

Typically the odds have been below 3.00 - and inmany instances below 2.00 - making the liability issuea lot more manageable than if we were laying theselections in the win market where odds could reach8/1 and above. As already mentioned, it only takes oneof these to win and we lose a lot of previously gainedprofits. The highest odds thus far for the place-only hasbeen 5.6 in a 16+ runner handicap where we are paidout for 4 places. The horse finished 12th which wasnice!

How can you profit?If the trend continues of selections being unplaced

we can operate a lay ladder to exploit the fact that thelongest run without a horse being unplaced was 3 atmost! Let’s look at an actual example, with an aim toearn £20:

RACE ODDS TO STAKE REQ’D LIABILITY ResultLAY to MAKE £20

1 1.51 20 10.20 Lost

2 1.5 £20 target 15.40 Lost+£10.20 lost

liability from Race 1

3 1.98 £20 target 44.69 Lost+£10.20 lost liability Race 1 +£15.40 lost liability race 2

4 2.94 £20 target + 175.16 Horse unplaced– £10.20 lost from we winRace 1, £15.40 lost liability race 2 and £44.69 lost liability Race 3 – Total = £90.29

One potential problem arises with the stake of£90.29 – is the place-only market liquid enough? Isthere enough money in the market for us to place thestake bet we want?

Alternatively, we can only use horses who’sbookmaker’s price is 5/1 or over. Looking over the testperiod, there was only one occasion where there was alosing run of 2. There were a couple of times wherethere was a losing run of 1, so we can conclude thatfocusing our attention on laying 5/1 or over horsesfor the place, using a lay ladder, has great potential!

Tackling The Placepot

Can You Really TurnSmall Stakes into BigReturns Using thePlacepot? Maybe . . .

Run by the Tote, the Placepot involves theselection of one horse to be placed in each of

the first 6 races at a particular meeting.

If there are 4 or fewer runners, you will have toselect the winner in that race. If there are 8+ runners,we must select a horse to finish in the first 3. Inhandicap races of 16+ runners, we must select horsesto finish in the first 4.

Winnings are paid out in a dividend, to a £1 stake,proportionate to your stake, eg if your stake was 10p,you will be paid 1/10th of the winnings.

All bets are placed in a pool and divided equally, asabove, determinant on the size of the pool of moneyfor that particular meeting.

Why permutations could be the key Essentially what we are doing with the Placepot is

trying to identify good place-only bets and good eachway bets and avoid horses which we deem could begood potential lays. Naturally, this will be easier in

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some races than others. For example, big fieldhandicap races (in fact all handicap races) are socompetitive that the majority of the horses are in with ashout and the favourites are not necessarily the besthorses in the race.

We can eliminate certain horses in each race IF weare currently operating successful lay selection systemsor look to select horses most likely to place for ourplace-only betting. If this work has already been done,eliminate the horses you would like to lay.

With the knowledge I hope you have accumulatedso far, you can attack the Placepot from a number ofdifferent angle . . .

Use a ‘Follow the Money’ strategy... Yes, this issue covers many ‘follow the money’

strategies, all of which have one thing in common –the need for the live betting market. Because we arePlacepot betting, it follows that we have to get our beton before race 1, so using the live market is notpossible.

Early Prices – The Next Best Thing So early prices are our only option if we want to see

where the money is going. Sites such aswww.bestbetting.com show early prices on all races, asdoes www.oddschecker.com whose “steamers” sectioncan give you some pointers as to the horses attractingmoney. Using the system The Patriarch describes onpage 11, we can compare The Racing Post’s bettingforecast with the early prices found atwww.bestbetting.com to determine any horses whoseodds may have been cut by the bookmaker. Take out anotepad and pen and write down the horses whoseodds in the early price market are much shorterthan the odds quoted by the betting forecast in TheRacing Post.

Betfair’s Price GraphsUse the price graphs for the horses on Betfair to

determine if the market is speaking for the horses oragainst the horses.

By clicking on the horse’s name on Betfair you canview the price graph. Fig A is a good example of thedirection the graph will move in when a selection is

being backed – from top left to bottom right.

Now, if a selection’s graph is moving from bottomleft to top right, as in Fig B, the price is increasing andso we can deduce that the selection is unfancied.

Betting Forecast Analysis: Using what you learnt in July’s edition aboutdeciphering the Betting Forecast, there are some raceswhich we can confidently whittle down to a handful ofprinciples. From these principles we can select one ormore horse who we feel has the greater chance ofplacing

Using the Racing Post The experts in The Racing Post can also point us in

the direction of more fancied horses, especially inimponderables such as big field handicaps. Look alsofor the Postdata table which can help show the horsesrecent form/ability in comparison to other horses in thefield. Spotlight’s synopsis of the horses can also giveus a few clues as to whether it is expected to run wellor not.

TipstersThe number of selections a certain horse gets from

the tipsters who make up the selections box in TheRacing Post can also swing you towards, or awayfrom, a potential selection. The more tips a horse has,the better chance it has of placing. If a horse has notips or, 1 tip, this indicates that the “professionals”don’t fancy that horse.

Eliminate The Negative Do you have a lay system which has a fair strike

rate? If so, strike out those selections from yourpossible place-only picks. The handicap system onpage 3 is ideally suited as its strike rate in findingunplaced horses in handicap races is very impressive.

A Placepot Example – Wolverhampton 14/08/06

RACE 1 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tipsy Prince,9/2 Call Me Rosy, Fen Dream, 13/2 Madam Gaffer,12/1 Avoncreek, Iron Dancer, Pertemps Networks,Social Rhythm, 16/1 Mister Always, 20/1 PerfectStyle, 33/1 Only A Splash.

Looking at this betting forecast it’s clear that TipsyPrince is obviously fancied. There is a slight price gapto Call Me Rosy at 9/2 and Fen Dream at 9/2. MasterGaffer at 13/2 is next best. Then there is a 6 point gapto Avon Creek. This 6-point gap interests me as it putsdistance between the first 4 in the betting market andthe next group of horses.

Alas, this is a crude method of analysing the races,as I firmly believe that the live betting market is the

5please turn over

Fig A Fig B

key, but with Placepot betting where we must get ourbet on before race 1, the live market is out of bounds.

In this particular race, I would be relativelyconfident about Tipsy Prince. As the horse is not abanker bet by any means, perhaps we can afford, inthis race, to choose another of the first 4 as ourselection.

Fen Dream is positively spoken of by Spotlight and,as joint 2nd in the betting would be my selection here.

Result: None of the horses placed. Tipsy Prince driftedout to 5/1 but I selected the horse without thisknowledge! This shows how important the live marketcan be, and why our inability to use it in Placepotbetting is a major negative!

RACE 2 BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 BeauchampViceroy, 7/2 Nepos, 9/2 Convivial Spirit, 5/1 Baylini,12/1 Dream Eile, 14/1 Final Dynasty, 16/1 BraveQuest, 20/1 Hidden Ace, 33/1 Aggbag, Fine Leg.

Using our betting forecast analysis, the first 4 in thebetting, in race 2, are clear by 7+ points from the nextgroup of horses. It is hoped that Hidden Ace onwardscan be ignored. We must account for the race type whendetermining our Placepot selections, and here FinalDynasty and Brave Quest are the debutants in this 2-year-old maiden. Beauchamp Viceroy was 2nd last timeout, but has only ran once. Beauchamp Viceroy underFrankie looks a good place only call here. BeauchampViceroy under Frankie Dettori obliges, but my Placepotis down already! The key to Placepot success ischoosing the right card with the right races.

RACE 3 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 He´s A Star,2/1 Woolly Back, 5/1 Dubonai, 12/1 Lord Of Methley,Molly´s Secret, Tuscany Rose, 20/1 Skin Sure Thing,33/1 Mr Strowger,

This is a selling race so is not an ideal bettingmedium. Again there are 2 clear market leaders with a3 point gap to the next and a 7 point gap to Lord ofMethley. In this 8-runner race, we must select a horsewhich will finish in the first 3. With He’s a Starreturning from a 65 day lay off and Dubonai comingback after 129 days, I will select Woolly Back to beplaced. Again we can confirm before race 1 starts, viawww.bestbetting.com the confidence or otherwisebehind the main protagonists and back the one who hasshortened in price mid-morning.

Woolly Back placed 2nd here so it’s 2 out of 3 but Istill don’t win the Placepot!

RACE 4 BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Cesc, 7/2Easy Lover, 4/1 Billy Dane, 7/1 Intersky Sports, 8/1Beau Sancy, 12/1 Goose Green, 14/1 Soffooh, 16/1Everyman, 20/1 Fasuby, 33/1 Spinning Game.

The betting forecast indicates a very difficult race.

We should look to include multiple selections, perhaps3 in this race. There is a slight price gap from BillyDane to Intersky Sports. With 11/4 the field thefavourite is not rock solid. If you read Spotlight’ssnippets, Cesc runs under a penalty. I will include BillyDane with Frankie Dettori on board, Beau Sancy, if thehorse’s price on www.bestbetting.com’s early morningprices, has shortened, and Easy Lover, the Spotlightchoice

Billy Dane wins and Easy Lover comes 3rd, BUT Istill don’t win the Placepot!

RACE 5 - BETTING FORECAST: 5/1Underscore, 11/2 Golden Alchemist, 6/1 Rosein,Vienna´s Boy, 7/1 Magic Rush, 8/1 Mistral Sky, 10/1Joyeaux, 12/1 Bessemer, Thunderwing, 14/1 PommesFrites, 16/1 The Crooked Ring, 20/1 Lord Of The East.

This is a handicap, 5/1 the field indicating it’s wideopen, so is the most difficult race so far. This is wherewe can discount the first 2 in the betting in such a race.With the outsider at only 20/1 this really is tight. The first5 are covered by 3 points, the next 5 by 6 points. Theearly prices will perhaps be key here in this type of race.If there is mention of the draw this can be a factor in ourchoices. Perhaps we could automatically discount thehorse with the worst draw, although this is 7 furlongs. Iwill discount the horses in draw 10/11/and 12 – Lord ofthe East, Thunderwing, and Pommes Frites. Rosein,Vienna’s boy and Magic Rush interest me as the 3rd/4thand 5th selections in the betting forecast. I have decidedon multiple entries because this is a tricky handicap race.

Magic Rush wins at 7/1 and Vienna’s Boy 3rd,BUT, yet again, I fell at the first hurdle!

RACE 6 - BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Ice AndFire, 5/1 Lysander´s Quest, 11/2 Swords, 6/1 StarRising, 8/1 Aristi, 10/1 Irish Ballad, Trials ´n Tribs,16/1 Indian Chase, Lets Try Again, Scurra, 20/1Johnny Alljays, Shingle Street, 25/1 Step Perfect.

Another difficult Placepot scuppering handicap race.Lysander’s Quest has finished in the frame on his last 2runs and is provisional 2nd favourite. I will select thishorse in the hope that the form remains. There are noreal clues anywhere else so I will hope that the biggerpriced horses run as their odds indicate. The prices fromthe favourite to the 16/1 horses is 5 and a1/2 points.There are 3 tiers: 9/2, 5/1, 11/2 and 6/1 being the firsttier – all prices very close together, then 8/1 clear on itsown, and 10/1 twice. I want to select a horse from eachtier, and here I’m afraid luck will play a greater partthan judgment. I will select Lysander’s Quest from tier1, Aristi from tier 2 and Irish Ballad from tier 3.

Result? Irish Ballad came 2nd for another place. Aninteresting first try on the Placepot. With better racecards my first winning Placepot may not be far away!

6

Irish Ballad comes second in this race. Had youread the Patriarch's follow the money article prior tothe race, you would have noticed that Irish Ballad, at10/1 in the betting forecast, opened up at 5/1, andhence became a bet. Alas, I didn't have this knowledge.

CONCLUSION - 5 from 6 - not bad for a first tryat the Placepot. Looks like the key ingredients mustinclude a large dollop of luck!

How to calculate your betsPerming more than 1 selection per race is perhaps

the best way to proceed, and it’s simplicity itself.Taking the above examples

RACE 1 – 2 selectionsRACE 2 - 1 selectionRACE 3 – 1 selectionRACE 4 – 2 selectionsRACE 5 – 3 selectionsRACE 6 – 3 selections

My total number of bets are 2x1x1x2x3x3 = 36 betsat 10p a bet =£3.60. The stake can be whatever youfeel comfortable with. You can also include moreselections as your wallet and confidence dictates. If youfeel that a particular meeting looks easier to predict,you can perhaps reduce the number of selections andhence the number of bets you need to pay for.

Why Selectivity is the key I don’t do the Placepot often, but there are occasions

where I can go through the race card at a particularmeeting and say to myself “There are a few horses ineach race that I would consider backing to win/ for aplace/in a dutch/ each way”. On these occasions (andthey are infrequent) the Placepot bet is worth pursuing.

I hope this can provide you with some inspiration tocreate your own Placepot method of selection. I havedeliberately chosen a difficult card on the all weather,and would recommend patience if you want to play thePlacepot, and look for those days where you actuallyfancy one or 2 horses in separate races, and wouldconsider betting these horses independently.

RESOURCE LIST:

FREE £25 bet on the tote.

Follow the link below and take advantage of this offer:

http://www.mybetting.co.uk

Click on their “Crack Placepot” link for a systemwhich you may like to utilise:

www.gamblinguncovered.co.uk

More Follow The Money Tricks!

How I Picked out 40/1Winners and 100/1 PlacedHorses by Following the‘Late Money’

Ihope you’ve seen the effectiveness of the 16/1system (www.canonburypublishing.com/16to1):

it’s a simple method of picking out horses who - tothe casual observer - seem to have a relatively smallchance of winning.

However when the live prices are compared to anindependent betting forecast, we can unearth a horsewho is quietly fancied, AND known by the bookies tobe quietly fancied. These horses often run into a place,and better still win.

A recent example came in the 330 Yarmouth on10th August in a shocking selling handicap race whereBy Storm’s price in the betting forecast of the RacingPost was 25/1. In the live betting market the horseopened up at 18/1 and went down to 16/1. ImmediatelyI backed the horse each way and it came 2nd. The payout for coming 2nd on Betfair was the equivalent ofhaving a 6/1 winner. Mighty impressive!

On page 10, The Patriarch reveals an expansion ofmy 16/1 concept where we can unearth potentialgambles at prices below 16/1. From my own personalexperience this is a very effective system at identifyinggood priced and short priced horses who are clearlystrongly fancied. Again, The Racing Post’s bettingforecast and the live bookmakers’ prices are used, butthere are other price markets we can exploit which canunearth winners as big as 40/1 and placed horses at100/1 (yes I’ve experienced both!)

EXPLOITING THE TOTEIf you use The Racing Post’s betting site as your

live feed, you’ll notice the inclusion of the TOTE’sprices for the win/place at the end of the column. TheTOTE is an independent market, yet is still, naturally,influenced by money. It is the key 15 minutes beforethe race that reveal the “late money” put on a horselikely to run well (this is a phenomenon shared withthe Betfair market as I will show later).

Following this late money can pay big dividends,but how do we go about this? Follow this step-by-stepplan

1. Log on to www.totesport.com.

2. Click on “live totepool info”

7please turn over

3. Chose your course

4. Click on win/place

5. 15 minutes before the race begins, make a note ofthe prices in the “WIN” column. Just before therace is due to run, review these prices and notethe horses with the biggest price gap between theprices 15 minutes before the off, and the pricesjust before the off.

6. The ideal here is to look for a big enoughpercentage movement in price. Calculate % oddsfor fractional odds as follows. Eg 6/4 6 dividedby 4 = 1.5. Add 1 = 2.5. 100 divided by 2.5 =40% Another example 2/1 = 2 divided by 1 = 2.Add 1 = 3 100 divided by 3= 33.33%. (Thesimple act of dividing the fractions and adding 1turns them into their decimal equivalents – theprices used on the betting exchanges and UStotes.)

7. Take the % odds 15 minutes before the race startfrom the % equivalent odds just before the off. Ifthere is a difference of +8 or more, this becomesa bet. If the place odds are near to 2.00 then Iwould place the equivalent of an each way bet bybacking the place and the win bet for the sameodds.

EXAMPLE: We look at one race and note down thecurrent Win prices 15 minutes or so before the off. Re-checking just before the off, we notice that one horsestands out. Odds 15 minutes before the off are 15.00 or14/1. Re-checking just before the off, we notice theseodds are now 8.00 or 7/1.

We need to know the difference between the 2prices when they are converted to percentages:

14/1 as percentage is 14 divided by 1 + 1. 14divided by 1 = 15 . 100 divided by 15 = 6.67%

7/1 as a percentage is 7 divded by 1 = 7 + 1 = 8.100 divided by 8 = 12.5%

12.5% - 6.67% = 5.83%. As things stand this is notreally a qualifying horse.

In the next race, one horse, priced at 6.00 or 5/1 15minutes before the off, is now 4.00 or 3/1 just beforethe off. Following our steps convert the odds topercentages. The 5/1 horse is equivalent to 16.67%.The 3/1 is equivalent to 25%. So 25% - 16.67% =8.33%. I would back this horse. If the place odds arenear to 2.00 I will place bet and win bet.

You will be confronted with the screen at the top ofthe next column. The key figures are those in the “Win” column. Here’s a quick glimpse of the abovescreen a few minutes afterwards

Can you see any potential market movers?

There are tote markets for Australian races, SouthAfrican races and American races, so the formula isapplicable globally. There are tote equivalentbookmakers in each jurisdiction; a simple googlesearch eg tote South African racing – will unearth thebookmakers offering tote prices. Some of the US toteshelp us by offering -15 min -10 min -5 min pricecolumns

BETFAIRAnother independent betting market which becomes

more accurate with increased liquidity is the Betfairmarket. How can we exploit price movements in thismarket? The key, as you should be aware of now, is tofind a comparison between early prices and prices lateron, just before the off. This is achievable using theBetfair market just before the off. The ideal races arethe types of races where you wouldn’t normallyentertain a bet, such as a big field seller, or competitivehandicap, or maiden race with multiple debutants,novice/maiden hurdle race/ national hunt flat race.Follow the steps below

Bring up the Betfair race:

• Take a screen print of the price screen 15minute/10 minutes before the off.

• Just before the race is due to go off, compare theprices from your screen print with the current liveprices (remember to refresh your Betfair screen or

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use an application such as betangel whichautorefreshes.)

• Make a note of the horses whose prices haveshortened dramatically. Pay particular attention toperceived outsiders whose prices have reduced, say,from 250 to 180. On the face of it this may benormally dismissed by the majority of punters, but ifthis price continues to shorten, albeit by smallincrements, consider a place only bet (the odds forthe place are likely to be great, sometimes up to50/1). Focus especially on those races which arehistorically difficult for punters to figure out.Examples include maiden races with multipledebutants, big field handicaps, nursery races,claimers, national hunt flat races, maiden hurdleraces. In fact, the worse the type of race, the better.Recent examples of successes for me include a 40/1winner in a maiden race – an outsider whose odds of250 reduced to 150 before the off. and a couple of100/1 2nd places which paid out 50/1 equivalent forthe place.

• Try to follow your selections in running as theirprices do have a tendency of reducingconsiderably. Using what you know about tradingprice fluctuations, you can engineer a risk free bet, ifthe price reduces in running in response to a horserunning above expectations.

This system may seem laborious and you will get alot of erroneous bets which do nothing, but if you areso inclined, and want to paper trade, perhaps you cancome up with further distinctions which can shape thissystem into a higher strike rate winning system.

Following the money can play an integral part inyour betting success. I have always adhered to themaxim that all of the factors pertaining to a horse’slikely running are contained within the price, and this,coupled with market forces in the independent marketssuch as the Tote, Betfair, and the live bookmaker’s canpoint you in the directions to uncover your good pricedwinners and placed horses.

Systems and TipsterUpdateI am still at a loss as to the exactness of The

Statistical Predictor thanks to the already mentionedambiguity in certain aspects of this system, ambiguitywhich hasn’t been clarified by the system vendor. It isfor this reason that I can’t recommend this to you. For£97 I don’t expect any ambiguity whatsoever and wantmy hand held throughout each stage of the system.

I have analysed my results using this system andcome to the conclusion that, based upon the previousmonth’s ‘selections’ (I say selections, as there may besome selections which are not selections (!) becausethe system does not make it clear). Ignoring allselections over 2/1, if we backed all selections betweenevens and 2/1 using progressive staking, our longestlosing run would be 4. This makes the system ideal forprogressive staking, based solely on 1 month’s results(which is by no means conclusive).

If this continues throughout August then we ‘could’be onto a winner here. Yes, I have missed the odd 3/1winner here and there, but this offers hope forconsistent profits. There aren’t selections every day, ifwe concentrate on selections whose starting prices arebetween evens and 2/1, but the losing runs which areso threatening to progressive staking plans seems tohave been negated. Couple this with the fact that thesystem looks only at races of 10 or less runners, andonly the first and 2nd mentioned in the bettingforecast, things could look interesting for long termprofits using progressive staking. Watch this space...

Results to Dream Of: With a recent losing run of 11on selections priced over evens, it was a bad month forthe system as it relates to progressive staking and tolevel stakes. We would have doubled our betting bankin the first few days only to see it squandered by small-priced winners and the long losing run.

Again if we streamline selections to those betweenevens and 2/1 only, we would have experienced alosing run of 5, very manageable for progressivestaking. As with the Statistical Predictor, this meansthat there will be a lot of dismissed selections as wefocus solely on evens - 2/1 selections, and there willnot be selections daily. If we concentrate on this priceband, we find that there is usually, on a qualifying day,only the one selection between evens and 2/1, whichagain ideally suits progressive staking, and suits thosewho are unable to follow the live racing during theday.

Racing Information Database Update“It’s a real pity that Streaks Ahead lays have had to

suspend their services due to health problems. You’llrecall their 100% strike rate last month.

Of the Premium rate services for July, Isiris LosingLine actually posted a profit – guess he’s got thewinning bug which is not much help for a lay service!

Of the more established names, The Sweeney’spremium rate line posted a profit, but his private line,in stark contrast, posted losses. Alex Gorrie also

9please turn over

posted losses for his premium service.

As far as subscription services go, July was a verygood month for Phoenix Racing (again). Profits forthe year to date also stand out. I am still trying to get areview subscription as their name continually appearsin the top ten.

Of those services who offer ultra selective betsBetselect Gold Betting hit a 100% strike rate, albeitwith 2 out of 2 selections.

On the sports betting front, familiar names such assportsonlinegambling.com, previous consistentperformers, posted losses for the month, but are stillwell ahead of the field for profits for the year to date.

Sport for Profit, another previous good performer,also posted losses for July.

When judging long-term profits over a 2-yearperiod, Phoenix Racing andsportonlinegambloing.com head the fieldconvincingly. These are names that continually appear,and although past performance is no indication offuture profitability, these are 2 services for me to focuson. I really want to enter the world of the customerhere with these outfits to see if their customer servicematches their profitability.”

I do have a list of ones to avoid, so if you have anyqueries regarding a service you think might suit you,AND it’s on the list, I’m more than happy to checkthem out for you.

And if you would like to receive RID’s full monthlyprintouts, which include detailed profit-and-lossfigures and lots of other useful information (includinglongest winning and losing runs for each service),write to them at Racing Information Database, PO Box3336, Sheffield, S14 1WY. You can also e-mail them atracingdatabase@hotmail.com. A subscription to RIDcurrently costs £99 a year and a sample issue is £10.

Riders to Riches: I hinted at the fact that systemssuch as this one mean that we must endure theoccasional long losing run because we are choosing, onaverage, big priced each way selections.

The results are available for inspection athttp://www.mdprofessionalsportsbetting.co.uk/RiderstoRichesResults.asp so you can follow them yourself,and determine if this type of betting is suited to you.

A 4% profit on the month from July 1st belies thepotential of this system. There have been plenty ofgood priced winners, and placed horses up to 50/1who, if you use the betting exchanges, will offergreater value than you can find with the traditionalbookmakers. I suggest that the profit figure will be alot greater using Betfair prices on big priced horses. A

profit on the year to date augurs well too, the onlymonth which showed a loss was March. I am confidentthat profits can continue throughout the comingmonths

Available from www.sportsworldpublishing.co.ukat £49, I hope this system carries on its steady, butupward curve.

As I mentioned in your last issue, all is on holdwith The Signposts To Success System until theJUMPS season gets into full swing. Let’s hope that thesystem replicated the fantastic profits which were thecornerstone of the sales pitch.

This is the time of year when Richard Mark willbe campaigning busily via mailshot for his myriadservices. One in particular which is timely is his SelectFew Winners service, which, if last season end’sresults are anything to go by, really is a great layservice. Pity it’s a winner tipster service!

With the football season here to stay until May, Ibelieve you can profit from your own efforts ratherthan relying on so-called self-proclaimed “experts”.Simply follow your niche – is it the Premiership, LaLiga, the Conference perhaps, and get to know yourteams. Look into trading matches in running, for herethere is real flexibility. Consider subscribing tosomeone who’s done all the work for you, such as TheSports Statistician. I have mentioned it before, andmention it again because it is a quality publication.Buy specialist weeklies such as The Racing andFootball Outlook and visit one of the many footballstats sites such as betdevil.com. There is nosubstitution for research, and I’m sure, over a season,with correct money management, you can profit wellfrom the feast of football about to hit the screens!

Mr X’s Bet Bank Alerts: I have just startedtracking this SMS tipping service and it is far too earlyin my trial to comment effectively on the profitpotential. With rugby league season/football seasonand tennis tournaments forming the cornerstone of theservice, I’m hopeful of a profit.

I’ve just begun a trial with Winner After Winner(www.winnerafterwinner.com), whose previous resultsseem most encouraging. It’s a straight backing tipsterservice and I will keep you updated as to its progressin the coming weeks through our Friday e-letter. Youcan sign up for free by going towww.canonburypublishing.com/wins/

I’ve also been monitoring a number of systems thispast month, but am not wholly convinced about any ofthem yet. There is potential to one or 2, but I need toanalyse the results with various money managementformats such as stop at a winner, progressive staking

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11please turn over

and so forth, as, to level stakes, these are not producingthe profits. One of my Stop at a Winner selectionsystems is looking full of potential with 11/14 winningdays. Another system has produced winners at 10/1and 7/1 twice, including a number of shorter pricedwinners. The only problem with the system is therelatively large number of losing bets. The system issimplicity itself. Go through the card, and make a noteof all horses who have been placed 1st and 2nd in allof their last 3 races.41 losers in the month really needsaddressing, but I will continue with this system.

I have a number of systems which focus on theinformation provided in the Daily Mail, and this is anavenue I will follow, in the hope that just one of thesystems proves easy to implement and profitable.

Inside The Patriarch’s Treasure Chest . . .

Another Great ‘FollowThe Money’ Strategy

Let’s get down to business. We’ve all heard theexpression in betting, ‘Follow The Money’, and

even if you don’t agree with it, one has to say that itcan certainly pay off! There have been manysystems over the years which have embodied theprinciple, and one of the finest in our collection goesback well over twenty years. That will be ourstarting point this month, but I have to say therecould well be a sting in the tail. This particularsystem was recently re-introduced to great effectmaking substantial profits, and I’ll now let you seehow it works. I’ll then give you an extra idea of myown (which wasn’t possible twenty years ago) andthis, I believe, improves the plan considerably.

In the original version the system used the bettingforecast of The Sporting Life, but since this is nolonger with us I would advise the forecast of TheRacing Post instead. Some users have suggested thatthe betting forecast of the Daily Express works well,but I’d be inclined to stick to the industry paper. Ihaven’t yet decided about The Sportsman.

The chief drawback in the original system was thatyou had to be in the betting shop to operate it. Withtoday’s teletext and internet available this is no longerthe case. Any race can be used as long as the bettingprice conditions are fulfilled. The chart that follows isthe key to the system and indicates when a bet ispossible. In the unlikely event of there being twoqualifiers in the same race, then split the stake. Onefinal comment – in the original version you had to wait

till just before the ‘Off’ before placing your bet. TodayI would advise that you place your bet, as you watchteletext or internet, at the ‘Going Behind’ signal. Hereis the chart.

Price In R.P. Forecast Price At Going Behind

20-1 or more 12-1 or less16-1 or more 9-1 or less14-1 or more 8-1 or less12-1 or more 7-1 or less

These were counted as Fair Value bets with arecommended stake of 3 points.

10-1 or more 11-2 or less8-1 or more 9-2 or less7-1 or more 4-1 or less6-1 or more 7-2 or less

11-2 or more 10-3 or less5-1 or more 11-4 or less9-2 or more 5-2 or less

These were regarded as Best Value bets with arecommended stake of 4 points.

4-1 or more 9-4 or less7-2 or more 15-8 or less

10-3 or more 7-4 or less3-1 or more 6-4 or less

These were considered as Short Value bets with arecommended stake of 2 points.

If you are interested in increasing the strike rate ofthe system, then you might decide to back only thosebets indicated as Best Value and Short Value.

The logic of the system is obvious. You arefollowing the volume of money being invested onfancied horses and at reasonable value prices.

And now for my additional idea!You don’t have to wait until just before the ‘Off’ to

place your bets because nowadays many betting firms(William Hill and Paddy Power, for example) offerprices on all races before noon. Look at these pricesand substitute them in the ‘Price At Going Behind’column. This will enable you to place any possible betswell ahead of racing taking place.

Here’s the sting in the tail I mentioned. When Iread it I couldn’t really believe it, but facts have to befaced even when they go against firmly-held beliefs.Minds have to be kept open. This report appeared inThe Racing Post, based on an investigation carried outby Betfair in the second half of 2004. They analysedsome 2,000 races involving over 20,000 horses (a fairsample) from the point of view of seeing howshortening-priced horses compared with drifters. Keepin mind that our system involves horses that are

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shortening in price from The Racing Post forecast.

First, here’s the methodology they used. Theydefined a shortening-priced horse as one that in the lastfive minutes before the ‘Off’ shortened by 20% of itsprice. And conversely, a drifter was one whose pricelengthened by 20% in the final five minutes. I can’tfault their approach. And what did they discover? Tomy utter surprise it turned out that if you’d invested£10 on all the horses that had shortened in price you’dhave lost £3,450. But if your £10 was on all thedrifters, then you’d have made a beautiful profit of£5,700. For anyone interested in the power of lateralthinking there may be something in these figures worthtaking on board. But I think II’ll stick to my system fornow - in my experience it really does work!

Finally, regarding in general getting the best pricefor any selection you are considering, here’s a tip Ireceived more years ago than I care to remember, butfor which I’ve had reason to be grateful on manyoccasions. Don’t take the opening show. Wait for thefirst show which indicates a reduction in price and takethat. Here are three examples to illustrate what Imean:

1. Sir Percy – 9-2, 5-1, 11-2, 6-1.You would take the 6-1 last show or S.P.

2. Sir Percy – 9-2, 5-1, 9-2, 4-1.This time you would take the third show of 9-2.

3. Sir Percy – 9-2, 4-1, 7-2, 10-3 In this case you would take the second show of 4-1.

You don’t always get the best deal, but you do moreoften than not.

Finally... an incrediblylazy, simple anddownright cheeky way tomake £100 a day onlineusing other people’sproducts and hard work”

Before we finish, I just wanted to draw yourattention to the extra information enclosed with

this issue. You find details of a new report thatanswers the all too common complaint from peoplewho want to make money online but just can’t bebothered with building websites and all the othertechnical stuff. Have a read, I guarantee it’ssomething you’ve not come across before!

All the best

Clive

PS: I was going to include an article on compoundingyour winnings, but I clean ran out of space! But worrynot - you can download it today by going towww.canonburypublishing.com/compounding

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot beheld responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on

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