atlanta - colliers multifamily advisory group€¦ · rockledge northwest atlanta 7/10/2017...
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Research & Forecast Report
ATLANTAQ2 2017 | Multifamily
Population Growth and Affordable Cost of Living Continue to Drive the Atlanta Apartment MarketKey Takeaways > Atlanta: Ranks #2 in transaction volume with $7.5 billion (year-ending 2Q 2017
> Supply: Annual net expansion units during year-ending 1st Q 2017
> Education: Atlanta ranks 5th largest in the southeast among metros with highest concentration of people with a bachelor’s degree or higher
> Forecast: Atlanta Average rent increases 5.0%; $1,115/month
Atlanta Multifamily MarketAtlanta is experiencing steady business expansion due to operational efficiencies and low cost of doing business. Atlanta is adding new jobs, continuing to create demand for multifamily product and increasing developers and investor’s confidence in the market. Economic gains, bolstered in part by numerous corporate relocations, continue to rank Atlanta among the top major U.S. metropolitans for economic growth. Atlanta’s economy expanded at an estimated average of 4.0% per year (inflation-adjusted dollars) in the five years ending 2nd quarter 2017. Atlanta has shown steady population growth in recent years, as the number of residents increased 7.8% from 2010-2015. That pace topped the U.S. average (3.9%). Meanwhile, the number of Millennials between the ages of 24-34 grew 6.4%, slightly above the national average (6.1%) from 2010 to 2015. College-educated renters are relocating to urban areas for the live, work, play city lifestyle that includes entertainment and access to public transportation. In addition, Atlanta boasts the fifth largest concentration of people with a bachelor’s degree or higher among major metros in the Southeast, trailing Washington, DC, Raleigh/Durham, Nashville and Baltimore. Combined, Atlanta’s demographic trends will lend favorably to the economy and apartment market.SUPPLYAs supply remains elevated in Atlanta, completions have remained manageable and concentrated in certain submarkets. Inventory expanded at an average annual rate of 1.7% over the past three years, as annual completions ranged from roughly 5,000 units to 11,600 units. In the year-ending 2nd quarter 2017, a total of 11,626 units were added, with 558 units taken offline, for an annual net expansion rate of 2.4%. Completions over the past three years have largely been focused inside the Perimeter, primarily in Midtown and Buckhead, while submarkets outside
$500
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$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
US ATLANTA Source: AXIOMetrics
Historical Apartment Rents & Occupancy
Market IndicatorsRelative to prior period
ATLQ2 2017
ATLQ3 2017*
VACANCY
RENTS
CONCESSIONS
TRANSACTIONS
PRICE PER UNIT
CAP RATES
*Projected
Occ
upan
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Effec
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Mo
Rent
2 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Historical Investment Volume & Cap Rates
UPDATE - Recent Transactions in the Market
Notable Sales Activity
PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE (UNITS) PRICE / UNIT BUYER
Gables Emory Point Decatur 5/3/2017 $136,061,056* 750 $181,414* Blackstone
Rockledge Northwest Atlanta 7/10/2017 $113,500,000 708 $160,311 NexPoint Residential Trust
Lakeside @ Milton Park North Fulton 7/10/2017 $98,250,000 461 $213,124 Olen Commercial Realty
Avia at North Springs Central Perimeter 4/3/2017 $89,300,000 530 $168,491 Harbor Group International
Madison Druid Hills Northlake 6/19/2017 $76,000,000 500 $152,000 Equus Capital Partners
Encore at Clairmont Apartments Northlake 4/27/2017 $74,060,000 359 $206,295 Fowler Property Acquistions
The Eva Central Perimeter 5/19/2017 $63,500,000 300 $211,667 Magnolia Capital
The Peninsula at Buckhead Buckhead 7/13/2017 $63,500,000 311 $204,180 Carroll Organization
Westmar Lofts Midtown 5/23/2017 $61,000,000 369 $165,312 Cardinal Group Investments
Marq Eight Central Perimeter 4/28/2017 $60,500,000 312 $193,910 CWS Capital Partners
Sales Volume AVG Cap Rate
ATLANTA MULTIFAMILY
Atlanta apartment investment volume increased quarter-over-quarter, and at Mid-Year 2017 stands at $3.2 billion. The average price per unit dropped slightly to $104,540 following first quarter’s record high. The average cap rate for Atlanta apartments showed no movement between quarters and remains at 6%.5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
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Atlanta Multifamily Market (continued)
the perimeter remain behind, although Class B and C submarkets are beginning to pick up steam. DEMAND The Atlanta apartment market remains strong, as annual absorption is between 8,300 and 12,700 units for the past 15 quarters. Atlanta boasts low costs of labor and land, great infrastructure and advanced manufacturing and distribution, as well as the presence of young, educated workforce and lower cost of living. Demand in Atlanta’s highly sought-after areas inside the perimeter continue to trend upward but completion for more affordable options poses a threat. Going forward, demand should remain solid, while less attractive areas remain well behind.RENTAnnual rent levels remain well above the historical norms, averaging around 5.5% to 8% in the last 12 quarters. Atlanta ‘s recent annual rent increase was above the metro’s five-year average of 5.3%. While Class A rent growth remains strong, there’s been an increasing demand for Class B and C product. As a result, Atlanta’s strong rent growth fundamentals are attracting more interest from both domestic and foreign investors than ever before. The average rent will climb 5.0% in 2017 to $1,115 per month. Last year, a rise of 5.5% occurred. Although rent growth will revert to more sustainable levels, multifamily remains a safe bet for most investors over the next few years. OCCUPANCY
In the 2nd quarter 2017, occupancy registered 95.0%, up 0.2 points year over year and up 6.7 points from the post-recession low recorded in 4th quarter 2009. Higher occupancy posted in top and middle-market categories over older and more affordable product. A similar trend was seen among submarkets, as central and northern submarkets generally maintained higher occupancy rates. Meanwhile, submarkets to Midtown’s south and outside the Perimeter, such as DeKalb and Clayton Counties, remained challenged with weaker demand. As more completions hit the market, occupancy rates will be tested, measuring the strength of healthier submarkets.CAPITAL MARKETSTransaction volumes in Atlanta remain among the highest in the country. The dollar volume of apartment deals totaled nearly $7.5 billion in the year-ending 2nd quarter 2017. Atlanta is second, behind New York and more than $1.1 billion ahead of the #3 ranked Dallas. A total of 235 apartment transactions took place in Atlanta over the past year, the third most nationally and the most in the region. The average price per unit was about $109,000 for the year-ending 2nd quarter 2017, which is relatively affordable compared to the rest of U.S. Apartment transactions have continued to increase in recent years causing cap rates to compress. In the year-ending 2nd quarter 2017, cap rates averaged 6.0%, down 30 basis points year-over-year.As pricing continues to elevate, things to look for in the next year is the increasing pressure of single-family housing and increasing apartment supply, particularly inside the perimeter.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Source: CoStar Comps*allocated
3 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
> BMW Technical Training Center
The German automaker BMW is hoping to tap into Atlanta’s growing airport area with the announcement of a Technical Training Center in College Park. The development will rise on a 4.1 acre parcel at the Georgia International Convention Center, according to a press release issued this week. The training center is expected to have a major economic impact, drawing as many as 10,000 BMW professionals to the facility annually for corporate training.
> San Francisco based Flexport Inc. will invest up to $100 million
The company is scouting for about 25,000 sf of office space in Midtown and plans to open a 100,000 sf warehouse near Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport that will create more than 200 jobs over the next several years.
> Coyote Logistics will open second office in Metro Atlanta
The third-party logistics provider has leased nearly 50,000 sf at Armour Yards – a 300,000 sf loft development targeted at tech and media companies, such as FullStroy and Influence Health. The move expected to create 325 jobs.
Metro Atlanta Housing Permit Activity
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Multifam
ily Permits
Issued
Source: U.S. Census Bureau*as of June 2017
Metro Atlanta Employment Overview
‐22.9
30.1
69.6 66.149.0
‐27.1
‐136.1
‐20.9
35.6 42.660.0
89.178.7 85.7 92.0
‐150.0
‐100.0
‐50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
Jobs Add
ed/Lost (thou
sand
s)
Source: US Dept. of Labor Statistics/Moody’s Analytics
Metro Atlanta Employment Comparison
METRO AREA RANK Y-O-Y EMPLOYMENT
Y-O-Y PERCENT
UNEMPLOYMENTRATE
New York/NNJ 1 169,500 1.8% 4.3%
Dallas-Fort Worth 2 115,300 3.3% 4.0%
Los Angeles/OC 3 102,600 1.7% 4.3%
Atlanta 4 94,100 3.5% 4.9%
Miami 5 80,800 3.2% 4.5%
Minneapolis-St. Paul 6 64,400 3.3% 3.5%
Boston 7 64,300 2.4% 4.0%
Chicago 8 59,600 1.3% 4.9%
Philadelphia 9 59,600 2.1% 4.8%
DC-Arlington 10 59,400 1.8% 3.9%
Phoenix 11 58,000 3.0% 4.5%
Houston 12 56,100 1.9% 5.3%
U.S. Total 2,206,000 1.5% 4.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Metro Level Data June 2017(p) Average, not Seasonally Adjusted
Notable Atlanta Job Relocations
*as of June 2017
4 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
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SMYRNA
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Riverdale
FOREST P ARK
Stockbridge
Union City
Fairburn
ATLANTA
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Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport
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AtlanticStation
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TechnologySquare
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BedfordPine Park
PiedmontPark
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McClatcheyPark
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LoringHeightsPark
HomePark
Bobby JonesGolf Course
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AnsleyGolf Course
GEORGIAINSTITUTE OFTECHNOLOGY
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
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41
51
61
71
81
35
45
55
65
75
85
33
43
53
63
73
83
37
47
57
67
77
32
42
52
62
72
82
36
46
56
66
76
86
34
44
54
64
74
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38
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68
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39
40
49
59
69
79
50
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70
80
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10
30
1
23
14
5
21
12
3
25
16
7
20
11
2
24
15
622
13
4
26
17
8
28
2718
929
5 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
Over 65 Multifamily Developments currently Proposed for the Urban
Atlanta Area.
LEASE UP# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
1 Millworks Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1888 Emery St NW Brookwood 345
2 Venue Brookwood Grayco Partners 2144 Peachtree Rd NW Brookwood 249
3 AMLI 3464 AMLI Residential Properties, LP 3464 Roxboro Rd NE Buckhead 240
4 Domain at Phipps Plaza Simon Property Group, Inc. 707 Park Ave NE Buckhead 319
5 The Home at the Battery Atlanta Atlanta Braves 900 Battery Ave SE Cumberland 292
6 Home at the Battery - Flats Atlanta Braves 2675 Cobb Pkwy SE Cumberland 239
7 The Point on Scott Fuqua Development 2532 N Decatur Rd Decatur/North Druid Hills 250
8 The Reserve at Decatur Atlantic Realty Partners 2600 Milscott Dr Decatur/North Druid Hills 298
9 Retreat at Mills Creek Housing Authority Of Dekalb County 3220 Mills Creek Cir Decatur/North Druid Hills 80
10 IMT Sandy Springs IMT Capital 6558 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 230
11 Square One George S. Morgan Development Co., Inc. 6050 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 203
12 The Cliftwood Net Lease Alliance LLC 185 Cliftwood Dr NE Downtown Sandy Springs 251
13 Alexan Glenwood Trammell Crow Residential Company 860 Glenwood Ave SE Grant Park 216
14 Helios Apartments Catalyst Development Partners, LLC 2470 Cheshire Bridge Rd NE Lindridge-Martin Manor 99
15 Sixty11th Selig Enterprises, Inc. 60 11th St NE Midtown 320
16 Azure on the Park Atlantic Realty Partners 1020 Piedmont Ave NE Midtown 329
17 Atlantic House NGI Acquisitions, LLC 1163 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 407
18 Yoo on The Park The Trillist Companies 207 13th St NE Midtown 245
19 Modera Midtown Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 95 8th St NW Midtown 435
20 Broadstone Midtown Alliance Residential, LLC 811 Juniper St NE Midtown 218
21 Post Midtown Millenium MAA 33 11th St Midtown 356
22 The Olmsted Chamblee Origin Investments 5193 Peachtree Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 283
23 Station R Greystar Real Estate Partners 144 Moreland Ave NE Reynoldstown 285
24 841 Memorial Enfold Properties 841 Memorial Dr SE Reynoldstown 80
25 Bolton Park Bolton Park 1888 Hollywood Rd NW Riverside 209
26 The Heights Chastain WSE Property Management LLC 225 Franklin Rd NE Sandy Springs 325
27 The Local On 14th The Carlyle Group 455 14th St NW West Midtown 361
28 Accent Waterworks Westplan Investors 1390 Northside Dr NW West Midtown 181
29 Westside Heights WSE Property Management LLC 903 Huff Rd NW West Midtown 89
30 464 Bishop Paces Holdings, LLC 464 Bishop St NW West Midtown 232
Units 7,666
6 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
UNDER CONSTRUCTION# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
31 Gables Buckhead Gables Residential 530 E Paces Ferry Rd NE Buckhead 327
32 The Whitley Wood Partners 1000 Park Ave NE Buckhead 224
33 Modera Buckhead Mill Creek Residential Trust, LLC 3005 Peachtree Rd NE Buckhead 400
34 Alexan Pharr Road Apartments Trammell Crow Residential Company 361 Pharr Rd NE Buckhead 244
35 AMLI Buckhead AMLI Residential Properties, LP 3450 Roxboro Rd NE Buckhead 400
36 Hanover Buckhead Village The Hanover Company 3116 Roswell Rd NW Buckhead 353
37 Gateway Capital View Prestwick Development Company Murphy Ave Capitol View 162
38 The Remington The Benoit Group 954 Hightower Rd NW Carey Park 160
39 Castleberry Park The City of Atlanta 348 Mitchell St SW Castleberry Hill 120
40 Modera by Mill Creek - Vinings Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 3205 Cumberland Blvd Cumberland 269
41 Stadium Walk Apartments Brand Properties 4501 Circle 75 Pky SE Cumberland/Galleria 309
42 The District at Windy Hill Apartments
Kaplan Management Company, Inc 0 Interstate North Pky Cumberland/Galleria 284
43 Broadstone Ridge Alliance Residential, LLC 2020 Powers Ferry Rd SE Cumberland/Galleria 300
44 Alta at Jonquil Wood Partners 1455 Spring St SE Cumberland/Galleria 266
45 The Holbrook of Decatur Solomon Senior Living 1880 Clairmont Rd Decatur/North Druid Hills 71
46 Sam's Crossing South City Partners 2700 E College Ave Decatur/North Druid Hills 197
47 E.Co Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority
2615-2661 E College Ave Decatur/North Druid Hills 375
48 Post Centennial Park MAA 325 Centenial Olympic Park Dr NW Downtown Atlanta 438
49 The Byron Perennial Properties, Inc. 549 Peachtree St NE Downtown Atlanta 65
50 MC Kiser Lofts Gallman Development Group 210 Pryor St SW Downtown Atlanta 41
51 Trinity Walk Decatur Housing Authority 421 W Trinity Pl Downtown Decatur 69
52 AMLI Decatur AMLI Residential Properties, LP 120 W Trinity Pl Downtown Decatur 325
53 The Residences at City Springs The City of Sandy Springs 6300-6400 Bluestone Rd Downtown Sandy Springs 294
54 Modera Sandy Springs Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 6125 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 340
55 Sterling at Candler Village The Benoit Group 2516 Mellville Ave East Lake Terrace 170
56 The George Urban Realty Partners 275 Memorial Dr SE Grant Park 130
57 465 Memorial Dr SE Atlantic Realty Partners 465 Memorial Dr SE Grant Park 227
58 The Kirkwood Avila Real Estate 1910 Bixby St Kirkwood 230
59 Overture Lindbergh Greystar Real Estate Partners 658 Lindbergh Way NE Lindbergh-Morosgo 190
60 Helios Apartments - Phase II Catalyst Development Partners, LLC 2470 Cheshire Bridge Rd NE Lindridge-Martin Manor 183
61 Alta at the Park Wood Partners 223 12th St Midtown 198
62 AMLI Arts Center AMLI Residential Properties, LP 1240 W Peachtree St Midtown 350
63 Alexan 880 Pope & Land Real Estate 880 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 356
64 Ascent Midtown Greystar Real Estate Partners 1400 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 328
65 The Standard Selig Properties 708 Spring St NW Midtown 257
66 ICON Midtown The Related Companies 14th St & W Peachtree St Midtown 390
67 lilli Midtown JPX Works, LLC 693 Peachtree St Midtown 150
68 Hanover Midtown The Loudermilk Companies 881 Peachtree St NE Midtown 350
69 Hanover West Peachtree The Hanover Company 1010 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 328
70 1270 Spring Street Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1270 Spring St NW Midtown 259
71 Accent Morningside Westplan Investors 1989 Cheshire Bridge Rd NE Morningside-Lenox Park 239
72 Modera Morningside South AEW Capital Management 1835 Piedmont Ave NE Morningside-Lenox Park 21
73 Solis Parkview Phase I Spruce Street Partners 5070 Peachtree Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 303
74 Mercey Housing at Mercy Park Mercy Housing Southeast 5135 Peachtree Rd Norcross-DeKalb 79
7 Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
UNDER CONSTRUCTION# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
75 Atlanta Chamblee Del American 5211 Peachtree Industrial Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 311
76 Spoke Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority
1471 La France St NE North Edgewood 224
77 Grant Park Apartments Fairfield Residential 290 Martin Luther King Jr Dr SE Oakland 321
78 North + Line SWH Residential Partners LLC 695 North Ave NE Old Fourth Ward 228
79 Aster JLB Partners, LP 608 Ralph McGill Blvd NE Old Fourth Ward 231
80 Anthem on Ashley North American Properties 720 Ralph McGill Blvd NE Old Fourth Ward 250
81 Hanover at Perimeter Town Center
The Hanover Company 1140 Hammond Dr NE Perimeter Center 385
82 Palisades Apartments Atlanta Property Group 5901 Peachtree Dunwoody Rd NE Perimeter Center 424
83 Crescent Perimeter Crescent Communities, LLC 5755 Glenridge Dr NE Sandy Springs 320
84 Emory Saint Joseph's Apartments
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC 1160 Johnson Ferry Rd NE Sandy Springs 285
85 Star Metal Residences The Allen Morris Company 1050 Howell Mill Rd NW West Midtown 409
86 Westside Heights - Phase II WSE Property Management LLC 903 Huff Rd NW West Midtown 194
Units 14,353
8 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
Copyright © 2016 Colliers International.The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
East Region Multifamily Advisory GroupColliers International | AtlantaPromenade | Suite 8001230 Peachtree Street, NEAtlanta, Georgia | USA+1 404 888 9000
FOR MORE INFORMATIONRon CameronSenior Vice PresidentPrincipal | East Region+1 404 877 [email protected]
Will MathewsSenior Vice PresidentPrincipal | East Region+1 404 877 [email protected]
CONTRIBUTORSScott AmosonDirector of Research | Atlanta
Jaime SlocumbTransaction Coordinator | East Region
Chevene King, IIIFinancial Analyst | East Region
Atlanta Submarkets
Units sold since 2011
33,500MORE THAN
Group gross transactional value since 2011
$2.3B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
20COVERING OVER
STATES