At Shared Intelligence we use data and evidence, logical ways of thinking and facilitated conversations to help our clients achieve better outcomes for the places and communities they

serve

17 Trends(and correlations, and epiphenomenal associations)

Tom Perrigo & Ben Lee July 2017

1a: The “Great Delamination” of productivity, jobs, and wages

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/09/04/opinion/04reich-graphic.html

1b: How can productivity grow but not wages?

Wages of the top 1%Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/09/04/opinion/04reich-graphic.html

2: Nation of freelancers?

1.08

1.24

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

Jan 2005-Dec 2005

Jan 2006-Dec 2006

Jan 2007-Dec 2007

Jan 2008-Dec 2008

Jan 2009-Dec 2009

Jan 2010-Dec 2010

Jan 2011-Dec 2011

Jan 2012-Dec 2012

Jan 2013-Dec 2013

Jan 2014-Dec 2014

Jan 2015-Dec 2015

Jan 2016-Dec 2016

Index of UK employment and self-employment [2004 = 1]

Employment (+2,182,400) Self employment (+845,700)

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey (APS)

3a: The Tortoise and the Hare

1.51

2.21

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Ind

ex [

20

17

= 1

00

]

Index of total 65+ and 85+ cohorts 2017 - 2039

65+ 85+

Source: ONS Population Projections

3b: Dementia

85-89

100+

75-79

Source: http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/time-to-think-differently/trends

4: Downsizing the labour market

1,669,345

3,172,277

3,885,934

3,595,3213,656,185

2,927,598

3,275,474

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2040 2041-2045 2046-2050 2051-2055

English Retirees per 5-year period 1996 - 2055; and, expected On-stream working age cohort to 2035

Domestic working age population cohort entrants Retirement and labour market exits at 65 yrs

Source: ONS Population Projections

5: Un-Affordable housing

2,549,000

4,588,000

1,651,000

2,343,0002,457,000

1,669,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Dwellings by tenure in England 2004 - 2014 (Source: Shelter.org)

Privately rented Social rented - Housing Association Social rented - Local Authority

Source: Shelter.org

6: We live where we can afford

Residential density

Job density

London workers

Source LSE cities unit; and, ONS Census 2011

7: The kids have returned

Source: Financial Times 2017

8: Gini in the bottle

Source: The enemy between us : The psychological and social costs of inequality. / Wilkinson, Richard G.; Pickett, Kate (2017)

9: Disability-free life expectancy and other health inequalities

Life Expectancy by IMD Life Expectancy by occupation

Source: Marmot Review 2015 update

10: Mental health: resources and intervention type

Source: HSIC 2015

11: Pile it high! (and shop early)

Consumable goods are cheaper…

…Partly because more people shop online

And in contrast to some other trends, the young are significantly more optimistic about growing their disposable income in 2017 than the old…

Source: The retail profitability challenge Deloitte 2017

12: The big squeeze - Zero Hours

225

585

905

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Nu

mb

er

of

pe

op

le [

00

0's

]

UK zero-hours workers 2000 - 2016 [000's]

Source: ONS 2017

13: A bigger squeeze – care wages

Photo from: www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/40585863

14: Culture leads to competitiveness

Source: UK Competitiveness Index 2010, Cardiff University

15: The risks of ignoring cultural inclusion are currently ‘trending’

One of the key findings of this year’s Global Risks Report is that inequality and polarization are now ranked in the top three as underlying drivers of global risks.

Source: World Economic Forum 2017

16: The decline of local news…

Source: Martin Moore & Gordon Ramsay, monopolising local news; LSE 2016

17: Despite how it feels, some things don’t change…

In Europe deaths from terrorist incidents are far outnumbered by deaths from cancer, suicide, and traffic accidents, but per victim coverage is higher for terror-related deaths. A US study found around 2,000 media articles of related coverage per victim, for terror-related deaths.

At Shared Intelligence we use data and evidence, logical ways of thinking and facilitated conversations to help our clients achieve better outcomes for the places and communities they

serve