asw_feb10 roll back on final ice blockage and gravity waves
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
1/68
Jliy|my 97^cl Ke|ydm` eJ J`ohc^ VmJl^ Je|dnm^oed
MlyeVmjl~x e y ` n
YE@@IMFAED JODM@
IM 888 V\JJLYV OFL I@EFAMH
Y\DXM_ VMJL^_
B`~"` ve`~edv
CL@OFEW^LY MD^O"OFL
Vcnndh ~c jev~dh
HYMZO^_ XMZLV
odzv` x~c wcdebd
VL@@ODH VBV
Bnn` bdhbd~ ff`
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
2/68Mvomd I|vodlvv Mzom~oed Mvvefom~oedMvIMM
V O D H M W E
M Z O M ^ O E
M F M N L B
^enmv ilv^ vmjl^ wymf^oflv jey ^cl mvom wmfojof ylhoed$
^cl ymwon hyex~c ej i|vodlvv mzom~oed
od ~cl Mvom Wmfojof ylhoed ylwylvld~v
ewwey~|do~ jey eyhmdo{m~oedv mdn
dm~oedm` lfedebolv$
Mv e~cly ylhoedv cmzl novfezlyln,
cexlzly, lswmdvoed ov m`ve m vmjl~
fcm``ldhl$ Jey~|dm~l`, i|vodlvv mzom~oed
cmv m`ylmn nlzl`ewln ilv~ wymf~oflv ~cm~
fmd il mww`oln od Mvom Wmfojof$
IMVV"Mvomov m dlx vmjl~ vlbodmy,
vwedveyln i je|y `lmnodh eyhmdo{m~oedv
~e ~ymdvbo~ wymf~ofmi`l adex`lnhl mdn
~lfcdo}|lv v|wwey~odh vmjl j`ohc~$
^e ylhov~ly ey ~e vll m wyl`obodmy
mhldnm, he ~e 0c~~w;%%j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh%
mzom~oed"vmjl~"vlbodmyv%i|vodlvv"
mzom~oed"vmjl~"vlbodmy"mvom"97=74$
I|vodlvv Mzom~oed Vmjl~ Vlbodmy"Mvom
IMVV"Mvom m =6=>, 97=7f Z``, v
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
3/68
xxx$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh pMlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
Wylvonld~vBlVVMhl
`mv~ lmyv fymvc ej m Fe`hmd Moy Iebimynoly
]>77 m~ I|jjm`e, Dlx _eya, \$V$, ov cmzodh
}|o~l md ljjlf~$ O~ ov m`ylmn nyozodh fcmdhlv
od ~cl xm ~cl odn|v~y eeav m~ jm~oh|l mdn
lzld~|m`` o~ xo`` cmzl m ioh ljjlf~ ed ~cl xm xl
~ymod mdn }|m`oj wo`e~v$ Mv obwey~md~ mv ~cevlmyl, O cewl ~cl mffonld~ iyodhv m~ `lmv~ edl beyl
ioh ovv|l |w jey w|i`of nlim~l; ~cl yl`m~oedvcow ej
vmjl~, omio`o~ mdn fenl vcmylv$
Dexclyl od ~cl xey`n ov ~cl vfewl ej ~cov yl"
`m~oedvcow iohhly ~cmd od ~cl \$V$ ylhoedm` moy`odl
odn|v~y$ ^cl \$V$ Dm~oedm` ^ymdvwey~m~oed Vmjl~
Iemyn mdn ~cl \$V$ Fedhylvv myl ed~e ~cov dex, mdn
~cl myl de~ heodh ~e l~ ~cov ovv|l he |dmnnylvvln$
O cewl ~cl myl ylmn ~e mva ~cl nojjof|`~ }|lv~oedv
mdn de~ `eea jey we`o~ofm` }|ofa joslv$
Lzlyedl ~m`av mie|~ ~cl edl `lzl` ej vmjl~
hem` jey m`` moy fmyyolyv$ I|~ ~cl ~y|~c ov ~cm~ yl"
hoedm` ewlym~eyv vmjl~ zmyolv vohdojofmd~`$ Vlzlym`
ej ~clvl ewlym~eyv cmzl xey`n"f`mvv vmjl~ vv~lbv1
e~clyv v~y|hh`l xo~c ~cl bev~ imvof febw`omdfl
ovv|lv$ ^cl deybm` ylvwedvl ~e ~cov obim`mdfl ov
~e i`mbl ~cl ylh|`m~ey, i|~ O v|hhlv~ ~cm~ vey~ ej
ylvwedvl ov novodhld|e|v mdn mzeonv ~cl ylm` ovv|l
ej cex ~cov odn|v~y ov v~y|f~|yln$
Bmkey moy`odlv ~ymdvjly ej ~ymjjof ~e ylhoedm`
moy`odlv cmv m`xmv illd mie|~ yln|fodh fev~v$
Ylhoedm`v ewlym~l |dnly fed~ymf~v ~cm~ ei`ohm~l
~clb ~e j` m hozld vl~ ej j`ohc~v jey ~cl bmod"`odl
fmyyoly$ O~ nelvd~ bm~~ly ~e ~cl ylhoedm`v oj ~cl
j`ohc~v j` j|`` ey lbw~1 ~cl cmzl de fed~ye` ezly
ylzld|l$ M`` ~cl fmd fed~ye` myl fev~v, mdn oj ~cl
ned~ ne ~cm~ ~clyl ov m =77 wlyfld~ fcmdfl ~cl xo``
he e|~ ej i|vodlvv$
M ylhoedm` ~cm~ f|~v feydlyv ed vmjl~ cmv mie|~
m edl od 9 bo``oed fcmdfl ej cmzodh md mffonld~$
V|fc md mffonld~ bm ey bm de~ ~mal ~cl moy`odl
e|~ ej i|vodlvv$ ^clyl ov m wexlyj|` lfedebof
odfld~ozl ~e bll~ bodob|b JMM yl}|oylbld~v
m~ ~cl `exlv~ wevvoi`l fev~$ Od ~cov lfedebof
ldzoyedbld~, vmjl~ fmdde~ il m wyoeyo~ |d`lvv
`lmnlyv w|vc jey o~$ O xeyy mie|~ m vv~lb xclylvmjl~ ov fmyyoln ed clyelv imfav$
^cl bmod"`odl fmyyolyv cmzl ~cl wexly ~e od"
fld~ozo{l vmjl~, i|~ ~cm~ nelvd~ m`xmv cmwwld$
Vebl fmyyolyv xeya no`ohld~` ~e ymovl ~cl vmjl~
`lzl` ej ~cloy fenl vcmyl wmy~dlyv$ O fmd ed` ls"
w`mod ~cov mv beyl clyeovb ilfm|vl ~cl ned~ cmzl
m i|vodlvv ylmved ~e ne ~cov$ ^cl vbmy~ i|vodlvv
bezl jey m bmkey fmyyoly mdn ~cl xm vebl
fceevl ~e ne o~ ov ~e ~mal m cmdnv"ejj we`of
ylhmynodh ~cl vmjl~ ej ~cloy fenl vcmyl wmy~dly
mdn nlf`myl ~cm~ oj ~cl JMM cmvd~ vc|~ ~clb nexd,
~cl b|v~ il vmjl$ On vm ~cm~ wevo~oed mwwlmyv
oyylvwedvoi`l ~e ~cl j`odh w|i`of, i|~ o~ bohc~ il
~cl yohc~ mdvxly jey ~cl v~eface`nlyv, obo~odh ew"
lym~oedm` fev~v lzly nm mdn v~eface`nly omio`o~
od ~cl lzld~ ej m fymvc$
Oj Fedhylvv xmd~v ~e cmzl md ljjlf~, o~ vce|`n
jef|v ed ~clvl j|dnmbld~m` ovv|lv$ Vbm`` fcmdhlv
od ~cl odfld~ozl vfclblv xo`` cmzl beyl ljjlf~ ~cmd
mde~cly =77 y|`lv ey =7,777 odvwlf~eyv$ Oj e| yl"
m`` xmd~ edl lzl` ej vmjl~, ~cld eea jey xmv ~e
bmal vmjl~ md lfedebof wyoeyo~ mdn de~ k|v~ m
beym` obwlym~ozl$
Xo``omb Y$ Zevv
Wylvonld~ mdn FLE
J`ohc~ Vmjl~ Je|dnm~oed
ov~y|f~|ym`
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
4/68
j`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=79
p
jlm~|ylv=> y|dxmv p B|`~o"@mly Nljldvlv
97 Fzv p Vdexim``v od ~cl J|l` Vv~lb
9> C`ofwv p Imn Zoiym~oedv
9? Vmhofo p Fclfaodh ~cl @ov~
69 jewv p Hymzo~ Xmzlv
6: j~mododh p Onlm Vlmyfc
>= oVohc p VBV jey ~cl Bonn`l Bmdmhly
nlwmy~bld~v= WBvvmh p V~y|f~|ym` Ovv|lv
9>
fed~ld~v Jliy|my97=7Z < o =
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
5/68
MlyeVmjl~XEY@Nwd; != 876$86?$:877
Xo``omb Y$ Zvv, w|i`ovcly,JVJ wylvonld~ mdn FLEzG$
K$M$ Ndhc|l, lno~ey"od"fcol,JVJ noylf~ey e w|i`ofm~oedvdG$, s$ ==:
Bma @mfmhdodm, vldoey lno~eyfddG$, s$ ==>
Xmdl Yvldamdv, vldoey lno~eydadG$, s$ == : Nmm`dap V`owwly Xcld Xl~
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
6/68
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
7/68
xxx$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh pMlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
lno~eyoM`wmhl
xl vwldn bev~ ej e|y ~obl ~coda"
odh, ~m`aodh mdn xyo~odh mie|~v~ym~lholv ~cm~ xo`` nlfylmvl ~cl
yova ej md mzom~oed mffonld~1
od~yevwlf~oed hldlym`` ov fedjodln ~e ~cl
mnl}|mf ej e|y ljjey~v$ Od ~cl wmv~ vlzlym`
xllav, cexlzly, Ozl ~xofl illd ylbodnln
xcm~ md ls~ymeynodmy mfcolzlbld~ ~cl
mzom~oed febb|do~ cmv mffebw`ovcln$
Joyv~ xmv m ylwey~ ed ~cl ljjey~ ~e
od~yen|fl fclfa`ov~v od~e cevwo~m` ewlym~"
odh yeebv$ Nlvwo~l =77,777 wev~"v|yhofm`
nlm~cv od ~cl \do~ln V~m~lv m`edl lmfc
lmy, ~cl blnofm` febb|do~ cmv illd
yl~ofld~ ~e m`~ly ~ymno~oedm` xmv$
^cl fclfa`ov~ mwwyemfc, fcmbwoedln
i Ny$ M~|` Hmxmdnl od cov ieea, ^cl
Fclfa`ov~ Bmdojlv~e; Cex ~e Hl~ ^codhv
Yohc~, ov ilodh |vln od jlxly ~cmd edl"
}|my~ly ej \$V$ cevwo~m`v$
^cl fclfa`ov~v nl~mo` bev~` vobw`l
~codhv, v|fc mv bmaodh v|yl m`` dlflvvmy
v~mjj ov wylvld~, ylzolxodh ~cl wyefln|yl
iljeyl ~cl f|~~odh ilhodv m `e~ `oal
iyoljodh jey md mwwyemfc mdn lzld
ldv|yodh ~cl wylvldfl ej v|ww`olv ~cm~
bohc~ il dllnln, v|fc mv ls~ym i`een$
^cl wyeflvv vllbv zly vobo`my ~e fylx
ylve|yfl bmdmhlbld~$
M ~lv~ od lohc~ cevwo~m`v mye|dn ~cl
xey`n vcexln ~cl vmbl ylv|`~v od nlzl`ew"
odh dm~oedv mdn ~cl joyv~ xey`n, m edl"~coyn
yln|f~oed od wev~"v|yhofm` febw`ofm~oedv
mdn m nlf`odl od wm~old~ bey~m`o~$ Cex"lzly, 97 wlyfld~ ej v|yhledv v~o`` ~coda
~cl ~xe"bod|~l fclfa`ov~v myl m xmv~l
ej ~obl, Hmxmdnl vmv$ \vodh fefawo~
fclfa`ov~v mv cov benl`, Hmxmdnl vllbv ~e
il`olzl ~cm~ oj fmw~modv fmd il fedzodfln
~cl bohc~ il jm``oi`l, wlycmwv nef~eyv
~codaodh fmd il `oalxovl vxmln$
Xco`l ~cl blnofm` febb|do~ m~
`lmv~ ov bezodh ~exmynv xcm~ xl fedvonly
ve|dn vmjl~ wymf~oflv, b cebl~exd
ymwon ~ymdvo~ mhldf, Xmvcodh~ed Bl~ye,
cmv v|jjlyln m v|fflvvoed ej jm~m` mffonld~v
mdn vllbv |dmi`l ~e |dnlyv~mdn xc ~cov
ov cmwwldodh$ M Dm~oedm` ^ymdvwey~m~oed
Vmjl~ Iemyn #D^VI/ clmyodh od~e m jm~m`
v|ixm ~ymod fymvc od K|dl 977?, ao``odh
md ewlym~ey mdn lohc~ wmvvldhlyv, bmnl
o~ f`lmy ~cm~ Bl~ye `mfav dlmy` m`` ej ~cl
~ee`v ~cl mzom~oed febb|do~ dex fed"
vonlyv lvvld~om`$ D^VI cmv odzlv~ohm~ln
lohc~ Bl~ye mffonld~v vodfl 977>, mdn
je|y lbw`ellv cmzl noln od ~ymfa mffo"
nld~v vodfl ~cl K|dl mffonld~$
Bl~yev vmjl~ bmdmhly ~lv~ojoln ~cm~
~clyl ov de wyeflvv jey fe``lf~odh ey mdm"
`{odh vmjl~ nm~m1 ~cl ezlym`` bmdmhly
ej ~cl ewlym~oed, dex ed cov xm e|~,
non de~ vll vmjl~ ylwey~v |d~o` mj~ly ~cl
ioh mffonld~ mv~ lmy mdn, nlvwo~l ewlym"
~eyv ilodh ylwlm~ln` je|dn od ze`|d~my
dedfebw`omdfl xo~c ewlym~odh y|`lv,
bmd ylwey~ ~cm~ m w|do~ozl vmjl~ ylwey~"odh f|`~|yl novfe|ymhlv wmy~ofowm~oed$
Bl~ye Fcmoybmd Wl~ly Ildkmbod
bodobo{ln bmdmhlbld~v ye`l od lv~mi"
`ovcodh m heen vmjl~ f|`~|yl, vmodh, ^cl
ilv~ xm ~e fcmdhl m f|`~|yl ov ~e xeya
jyeb ~cl ie~~eb |w$
^cov ov de~ cmwwldodh od vebl vbm``,
ylbe~l `efm~oed1 ~cov mhldf y|dv ~ymodv
mdn i|vlv od ~cl fmwo~m` ej ~cl \do~ln
V~m~lv, odf`|nodh m v~m~oed od ~cl i|o`nodh
~cm~ ce|vlv D^VI$
^cl mzom~oed vmjl~ febb|do~, nlno"
fm~ln ~e hl~~odh il~~ly mdn il~~ly, ymyl`
wm|vlv ~e ylj`lf~ ed mfcolzlbld~v, `eea"
odh, odv~lmn, m~ m`` ~cm~ ylbmodv ~e il nedl$
O ~coda o~ ov obwey~md~ effmvoedm`` ~e
ylj`lf~ ed ~cl mbm{odh wyehylvv ~cm~ cmv
illd bmnl, wevo~ozl ylodjeyflbld~ be~o"
zm~odh j|~|yl wyehylvv$ Cexlzly, O vcmal
b clmn od xednly mie|~ xc ~clvl lv"
vedv fmdde~ beyl lmvo` il wmvvln m`edh
jey ~cl ildljo~ ej ~cl ylv~ ej fozo`o{m~oed$
K$M$ Nedehc|l
Lno~ey"od"Fcolj
MlyeVmjl~ Xey`n
wevo~ozl
yfd
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
8/68
:
pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyevMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
^cl Mzom~oed Fedv|`~odh Hye|w ov m h`eim` `lmnly od mzom~oed
~ymododh mdn fedv|`~odh, od i|vodlvv jey beyl ~cmd =7 lmyv$
Wyejlvvoedm ovb mdn febb|dofm~oed myl e|y cohclv~ wyoeyo~olv
mdn xl ~ylm~ lmfc f`old~ mv wmy~ ej e|y jmbo`$
Xcm~ Xl Ne
^MFHv nozlyvojoln wey~je`oe ej mzom~oed vmjl~ mdn vlf|yo~ ~ymododh
mdn fedv|`~odh vlyzoflv odf`|nlv;
ie~~eb;c|{|y%ov~efawce~e
~ew;Bm~~edobmhlv
jvjvbodm 97=7 Lscoio~ mdn Vwedveyvcow Ewwey~|do~olv Mzmo`mi`lFmvv 97=7Bm ===6, 97=7
j v j d i mz mf$7389
\wfebodh Fe|yvlv
Nm~l Fe|yvl @efm~oed Ylhov~ym~oed F`evlv
Mwyo` =?97, 97=7 C|bmd Jmf~eyv 9"Nm Odo~om`+ Vmd K|md, W|ly~e Yofe Bmyfc 6=, 97=7
Mwyo` =?9=, 97=7 C|bmd Jmf~eyv 6"Nm ymod"~cl " ymodly+ Vmd K|md, W|ly~e Yofe Bmyfc 6=, 97=7
M|h|v~ ?=7, 97=7 C|bmd Jmf~eyv 9"Nm Odo~om` Vndl, M|v~ym`om ^IN
M|h|v~ ?==, 97=7 C|bmd Jmf~eyv 6"Nm ymod"~cl " ymodly Vndl, M|v~ym`om ^IN
M|h|v~ =9, 97=7 C|bmd Jmf~eyv ="Nm Ylf|yyld~ Vndl, M|v~ym`om ^IN
+ Fedvonly febiododh ~cov fe|yvl xo~c e|y Vmjl~ Bmdmhlbld~ Vv~lbv fe|yvl ~cl vmbl xlla$
C|bmd Jmf~eyv
Vmjl~Bmdmhlbld~Vv~lbv
FylxYlve|yflBmdmhlbld~
@odlEwlym~oedvVmjl~M|no~%^cylm~ mdn Lyyey Bmdmhlbld~
M|no~odh
Lswly~Xo~dlvv
Mzom~oedVlf|yo~mdn
Fe|d~ly"^lyyeyovb
YlvlmyfcMvvov~mdfl
vm;v`f eD
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
9/68
xxx$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
vmjl~fM`ldnMy
FM@@ JEY WMWLYV >=v~ Mdd|m` Vlbodmy
ej ~cl Od~lydm~oedm` Vefol~ ej Moy Vmjl~
Odzlv~ohm~eyv$ Vmwweye, Kmwmd, Vlw~$ :?$ Iei
Bm~~clxv, 0iei$bm~~clxvGmm$hez4$
FM@@ JEY WYLVLD^M^OEDV MDN
WMDL@OV^V Vcmyln Zovoed ej Mzom~oed
Vmjl~ Fedjlyldfl$ \$V$ Jlnlym` Mzom~oedMnbodov~ym~oed$ K|dl =6$ Vmd Nolhe$ @|f
Lynl`mf, 0`lynl`mfG|~yv$feb4, 0xxx$m}w"
e}m$feb%Fedlyldflv%97=7%odnls$c~b`4,
!= 9=: Mdd|m` Ylwmoy Vbwevo|b$
Mlyedm|~ofm` Ylwmoy V~m~oed Mvvefom~oed$ My`odh~ed,
Zoyhodom, \$V$ 0myvmGmyvm$eyh4, 0xxx$myvm$eyh%
denl%9984, != 876$86?$?6$
BMYFC 3== Vmjl~ Bmdmhlbld~ Fe|yvl$
VfmdnoMzom$ V~eface`b$ Bey~ld Akl``lvzoh,
0bey~ldGvfmdnomzom$dl~4, 0xxx$vfmdnomzom$
dl~4, !>8 ?= =3 >= 39$
BMYFC ?== Bmdmhodh C|bmd Lyyey
od Febw`ls Vv~lbv Xeyavcew$ Xolhbmdd,
Vcmwwl`` * Mvvefom~lv$ M`lsmdnyom, Zoyhodom, \$V$
0xxx$cmfv$feb4, 377 697$7366$
BMYFC ?== M^F H`eim` Lscoio~oed
mdn Fedjlyldfl$ \do~ln I|vodlvv Blnom$
Mbv~lynmb$ 0xxx$m~flzld~v$feb%M F=7%
Xlivo~l%CeblWmhl$mvws5ylly2=*on2bmod@da=4,
!>> #7/97 8?9= 3>
#7/=98: 3= 39$
BMYFC =:=8 Vmjl~ Bmdmhlbld~
Vv~lbv Ezlyzolx Fe|yvl mdn Xeyavcew$
M F Zmd~mhl$ mbwm, J`eyonm, \$V$ 0ylhov~ym~oedvGm~fzmd~mhl$feb4, 0xxx$m~fzmd~mhl$feb%vbv"
xeyavcew"Bmyfc$c~b`4, != 898$>=7$>8$7389 #\$V$
mdn Fmdmnm/, != ?$376$8 ?= =3 >= 39$
Mzom~oed vmjl~ lzld~ febodh |w5
^l`` odn|v~y `lmnlyv mie|~ o~$
O e| cmzl m vml~"yl`m~ln fedlyldfl,
vlbodmy ey bll~odh, xl`` ov~ o~$ Hl~ ~cl
odeybm~oed ~e |v lmy` xl`` allw o~ed ~cl fm`ldnmy |d~o` ~cl ovv|l nm~ln ~cl
bed~c e ~cl lzld~$ Vldn ov~odhv ~e Yofa
Nmyi m~ J`ohc~ Vml~ Je|dnm~oed, :7=
Bmnoved V~$, V|o~l 677, M`lsmdnyom, ZM 996=>"
=8
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
10/68
BbH|onlJc Vm J|mCm}|mv; :7= Bmv V$, V| 677, Msmm, ZM, 996=>"=8
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
11/68
xxx$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
odIyolj
~cl d|bily ej mzom~oed mffonld~v od L|yewl odze`zodh moy ~ymjjof bmdmhl"
bld~ #M^B/ ov nlfylmvodh, mffeynodh ~e m ylwey~ i ~cl L|yefed~ye` Vmjl~Ylh|`m~oed Febbovvoed$
^cl febbovvoedv mdd|m` vmjl~ ylwey~ vmon ~cm~ od 977?, de jm~m` mffonld~v
xlyl noylf~` odn|fln i M^B1 md odnoylf~ M^B fed~yoi|~oed xmv ylwey~ln od
~xe dedjm~m` mffonld~v$
^cov fed~od|lv m ~yldn vlld ezly ylfld~ lmyv xclyl ~cl d|bily ej M^B"
yl`m~ln mffonld~v cmv nlfylmvln lmy"ed"lmy, L|yefed~ye` vmon$ cl mhldf mnnln,
cexlzly, ~cm~ wyehylvv ~exmyn j|`` mffonld~ ylwey~odh i v~m~lv ov ~ee v`ex mdn ~cm~
beyl nl~mo`ln yova mdm`vov ov dlflvvmy$
^cl ylwey~ m`ve fyo~ofo{ln ~cl `mfa ej j|dnodh mdn ylve|yflv m~ dm~oedm`
v|wlyzovey m|~ceyo~olv ~cm~ ezlyvll mzom~oed vmjl~ wyeflvvlv od odnozon|m`
L|yewlmd fe|d~yolv, de~odh ~cm~ ~cl lbwcmvov ed vmjl~ b|v~ fed~od|l nlvwo~l
i|nhl~my wylvv|ylv$
O~ ov f`lmy ~cm~ od ~cl j|~|yl,vmjl~ xo`` il ~lv~ln lzld beyl yoh"
eye|v`, vmon Kev Xo`iyoda, fcmoy"
bmd ej ~cl febbovvoed$ Xco`l ~cl
ezlym`` vo~|m~oed ov obwyezodh ed m
`edh"~lyb imvov, od eynly ~e bll~
~cl ~ldje`n vmjl~ obwyezlbld~ mob
ej ~cl Vodh`l L|yewlmd Va, j|y~cly
ljjey~v xo`` il dllnln$
Nlfylmvl Vlld od M^B @oda ~e Mffonld~v
~cl \$V$ Dm~oedm` ^ymdvwey~m~oedVmjl~ Iemyn #D^VI/ cmv mnnln mdlx mzom~oed ovv|l ~e o~v |wnm~lnBev~ Xmd~ln @ov~ ej ^ymdvwey~m~oed
Vmjl~ Obwyezlbld~v$
^cl dlx ld~y fm``v jey obwyezln
ezlyvohc~ ej wo`e~ wyejofoldf mdn fyo~ofo{lv
~cl \$V$ Jlnlym` Mzom~oed Mnbodov~ym~oed
#JMM/ jey xcm~ ~cl D^VI fcmymf~lyo{lv
mv md |dmfflw~mi`l ylvwedvl ~e ~xe 977, mdn od
977:, OFME blbily v~m~lv mhylln ~e
wev~ ~cl v|bbmy ylv|`~v ej \VEMW
m|no~v ed ~cl OFME Xli vo~l$ Cl fm``ln
~cm~ mhyllbld~ ~mfo~ ylfehdo~oed ~cm~
~ymdvwmyldf ov j|dnmbld~m` ~e m vmjl
moy ~ymdvwey~ vv~lb$
Fed~od|e|v Bedo~eyodh
moyfymj~ Ldhodllyv Od~lydm~oedm`#MLO/, xcofc ylwylvld~v mzom~oedbmod~ldmdfl wlyveddl`, cmv fm``lned ~cl L|yewlmd Febbovvoed ~e bmal
w|i`of vmjl~ nm~m odze`zodh ~cl mzom~oed
ewlym~oedv |dnly o~v k|yovnof~oed$
MLO mf~ln od ylvwedvl ~e m w|i`ovcln
ylwey~ ~cm~ odnofm~ln ~cm~ :
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
14/68
=9 pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
odIyolj
md m|noi`l m`ly~ vv~lb cmv illdnlzl`ewln ~e cl`w wylzld~ ~cl|dod~ld~oedm` nlw`ebld~ ejmoyw`mdl lzmf|m~oed v`onlv$ F|y~ovv"
Xyohc~ Fed~ye`v vmv o~v Vbmy~Cmd"
n`l, xcofc fmd il nlvohdln ~e jo~ md
moyfymj~ neey, fmd il wyehymbbln ~e
ovv|l m`ly~v od lo~cly m bm`l ey jlbm`l
zeofl mdn od md `mdh|mhl$ ^cl
Fozo` Moy Dmzohm~oed Vlyzoflv Eyhmdo"
vm~oed #FMDVE/ mdn mzom~oed v~mal"
ce`nlyv ~cye|hce|~ ~cl Bonn`l Lmv~
cmzl vohdln m Bonn`l Lmv~ Nlf`mym"
~oed w`lnhodh ~e xeya jey obwyezln
moy ~ymjjof bmdmhlbld~ od ~cl ylhoed$
Vohdlyv vmon ~cl nlf`mym~oed xo``
wmzl ~cl xm jey cmybedo{m~oed ejmoy dmzohm~oed vlyzoflv$ cl Fozo`
Mzom~oed Vmjl~ M|~ceyo~ ej M|v~ym`om
ov xeyaodh ~e v~mdnmyno{l wyefln|ylv
jey ~cl mlyom` joyljohc~odhodn|v~y,xcofc cmv hyexd vohdojofmd~` od
ylfld~ lmyv$
Od E~cly Dlxv
Febwo`ln mdn lno~ln i @odnm Xlyjl`bmd$
~cl \$V$ Jlnlym` Mzom~oed Mnbodov~ym~oed #JMM/ cmvwyewevln ~xe vlwmym~l fozo` wldm`~olv ~e~m`odh beyl ~cmd.< bo``oed mhmodv~ Mblyofmd Lmh`l Moy`odlv jey jmo`odh~e ldv|yl ~cm~ ~cl xlohc~ ej imhhmhl xmv fm`f|`m~ln wyewly`
mdn jey |vodh moyw`mdlv xo~c `mdnodh hlmy neeyv ~cm~ cmn illd
obwyewly ylwmoyln$
^cl JMM vmon ~cm~, il~xlld Kmd|my mdn Ef~eily 9773, ~cl
moy`odl fedn|f~ln m~ `lmv~ = wmvvldhly"fmyyodh j`ohc~v od xcofc
imhhmhl xlohc~ `ov~ln ed moyw`mdl fmyhe `emn vcll~v novmhylln
xo~c nm~m ld~lyln od~e ~cl febwmdv l`lf~yedof xlohc~ mdn
im`mdfl vv~lb$ Mj~ly Mblyofmd Lmh`l xmv odjeybln ej ~cl wyei"
`lb, ~cl febwmd ewlym~ln m~ `lmv~ 6? j`ohc~v xo~ce|~ feyylf~odh
~cl vo~|m~oed, ~cl JMM vmon$ ^cl wyewevln jodl xmv .9$< bo``oed$
Mblyofmd Lmh`l cmv vodfl ylzovln o~v V~m~oed Ewlym~odh
Bmd|m`~e ldv|yl ~cl fedjoybm~oed ej wyewly xlohc~ mdn im`"
mdfl odjeybm~oed, ~cl JMM vmon$
Od m vlwmym~l mf~oed, ~cl JMM wyewevln m .9$? bo``oed fozo`
wldm`~ mhmodv~ ~cl moy`odl jey ewlym~odh beyl ~cmd =,777 j`ohc~v
xo~c moyw`mdlv ed xcofc obwyewly ylwmoyv cmn illd wlyjeybln
ed `mdnodh hlmy neeyv$ ^cl j`ohc~v eff|yyln il~xlld Jliy|my
mdn Bm 9773 ed je|y Iebimynoly kl~v1 ~cl moyw`mdlv `mdnodh
hlmy neeyv cmn de~ illd ylwmoyln od mffeynmdfl xo~c m 977:
moyxey~codlvv noylf~ozl, xcofc yl}|oyln odvwlf~oedv ej `mdnodh
hlmy neeyv ed vebl Iebimynoly moyw`mdlv jey fymfav ey e~cly
nmbmhl, ylbezm` ej ~cl mjjlf~ln neeyv, mdn odv~m``m~oed ej dlx
ey ylwmoyln neeyv, ~cl JMM vmon$
Mblyofmd Lmh`l je|dn nmbmhln neeyv ed je|y moyw`mdlv,i|~ ym~cly ~cmd ylbezodh ~cl neeyv, ~cl moy`odl ylwmoyln ~clb
xco`l ~cl ylbmodln ed ~cl w`mdlv, ~cl JMM vmon$
Od lmfc odv~mdfl, ~cl moy`odl xmv hozld 67 nmv ~e mwwlm` ~cl
JMM mf~oed$
Wyewevln Wldm`~olv
~cl Fozo` Mzom~oed Vmjl~ M|~ceyo~ej M|v~ym`om #FMVM/ ov fedvonlyodhmf~oed ~cm~ fe|`n lzld~|m`` yl}|oylwo`e~v ej m ymdhl ej moyfymj~ ~e |dnlyhe
bmdnm~ey vob|`m~ey ~ymododh$
^cl mhldf ve`ofo~ln febbld~v jyeb
moyfymj~ ewlym~eyv, wo`e~v mdn j`ohc~ vob|"
`m~ey ~ymododh eyhmdo{m~oedv ed =9 ew~oedv
e|~`odln od m novf|vvoed wmwly ovv|ln od
Nlflbily 977?$ ^cl ew~oedv nojjly od
~cyll mylmv; ~cl ~wl ej ~ymododh mf~ozo~olv ~cm~ vce|`n il fedn|f~ln od m j`ohc~ vob|`m"
~ey, ~cl ~wlv ej moyfymj~ mdn ewlym~oedv ~cm~ xe|`n il mjjlf~ln, mdn ~cl mzmo`mio`o~
mdn `efm~oed ej fly~ojofm~ln ~ymododh nlzoflv$ Febbld~v xlyl n|l i Jli$ =?$
F|yyld~ FMVM ylh|`m~oedv ne de~ yl}|oyl vob|`m~ey ~ymododh$
^cl novf|vvoed wmwly vmon, cexlzly, ~cm~ ~cl }|m`o~ mdn vfewl ej ~ymododh
mzmo`mi`l od m j`ohc~ vob|`m~ey ov v|wlyoey ~e ~cl ~ymododh mzmo`mi`l od md mf~|m`
moyfymj~$ cl mfflvvoio`o~ ej vewcov~ofm~ln vob|`m~eyv cmv ewldln |w dlx mzld|lvej wo`e~ ~ymododh, wlybo~~odh ~cl nlbedv~ym~oed ej dlmy` lzly wevvoi`l lblyhldf
vfldmyoe n|yodh ~cl fe|yvl ej m ~ymododh mdn fclfaodh wyehymb$
^cl novf|vvoed wmwly vmon ~cm~ md dlx vob|`m~ey yl}|oylbld~ xe|`n de~
obwevl mnno~oedm` ~ymododh ~obl1 odv~lmn, vob|`m~ey ~ymododh xe|`n ylw`mfl lsov~odh
febwedld~v ej ~ymododh wyehymbv ~cm~ f|yyld~` myl fedn|f~ln od moyfymj~ mdn
w`mfl ~clb od ~cl vmjly, beyl zlyvm~o`l ldzoyedbld~ ej m j`ohc~ vob|`m~ey$
Bmdnm~ey Vob|`m~ey ^ymododh
Bmd|l` Yefcm%Xoaoblnom
Keynmd ^md%Nylmbv~obl
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
15/68
LF@OWVODH M@@M^B * M^F LZLD^V>377 ODN\V^Y_ WYEJLVVOEDM@V
JYEB ?: FE\D^YOLV\DO^L JEY ^CL 97^C _LMY
MBV^LYNMB YMO?"== BMYFC 97=7LSCOIO^OED * FEDJLYLDFL
JYLL ZOVO^EY LD ^Y_
977 OD^LYDM^OEDM@ LSCOIO^EYV
YLHOV^LY M^;XXX$M^FLZLD^V$FEB
WYLV^OHOE\V FEDJLYLDFLOBWYEZODH M^B VLYZOFLVOD
FCM@@LDHODH LFEDEBOF ^OBLV
JEY BEYL ODJEYBM^OED MDN
CEX ^E YLHO V^LY HE ^E
XXX$M^FLZLD^V$FEB EYFM@@ !>>#7/978 ?9= 3 pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
y|dxMvmjl~
j`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7=> p
~lfcde`eh"nyozld mdvxlyv ~e c|"
bmd lyyeyv nebodm~ln m Nlflbily
y|dxm vml~ fedlyldfl n|yodh
xcofc wylvld~lyv novf|vvln zmyo"
e|v nl`mv, hmwv, ev~ ewwey~|do~olv mdn
bovv~lwv e fedflyd od ~cl mnzmdfl
e vml~$ Bmd vwlmalyv fm``ln ey
iyemnly, mv~ly mdn `lvv fev~` ve`|~oedv
~cmd ~lfcde`eh m`edl elyv$
Ley~v n|yodh ~cl wmv~ ~cyll lmyv
~e yln|fl L|yewlmd mdn \$V$ yovav e
y|dxm odf|yvoedv, lsf|yvoedv mdn
fed|voed lzld~v cmzl illd od~ldvl,
~cl mhylln$ V~o``, vebl lswlf~ ~cl dls~
yed~oly e yova yln|f~oed ~e yl}|oyl
ezlyfebodh odhymodln bovfedflw~oedv
mie|~ c|bmd wlyeybmdfl mdn lyyeyv$ O
v~mdnmyn ewlym~odh wyefln|ylv |dnly"
lv~obm~l mf~|m` yovav xcld `ohc~ fylxv
~mso yeb ~cl hm~l ~e ~cl y|dxm ey zofl
zlyvm, ~cl mwwmyld~ vml~ bmyhod bm il
md o``|voed, vlzlym` wylvld~lyv v|hhlv~ln
m~ ~cl \$V$ Jlnlym` Mzom~oed Mnbodov~ym"
~oed #JMM/ Od~lydm~oedm` Y|dxm Vml~
V|bbo~ cl`n od Xmvcodh~ed, N$F$
cl \$V$ Dm~oedm` ymdvwey~m"
~oed Vml~ Iemyn #DVI/ xmv mbedh
eyhmdo{m~oedv ~cm~ cmzl ~mfa`ln iyemnly
y|dxm ovv|lv ~cm~ Fcmoybmd Nlie"
ymc Clyvbmd fm``ln mv cm{myne|v mv
y|dxm odf|yvoedv$ cl Q\$V$R y|dxm
odf|yvoed ym~l ezly ~cl `mv~ e|y lmyv
v~mdnv m~ mie|~ vos wly =77,777 ~exly
Vwlfom`ov~v m~ JMM v|bbo~ `eea iledn ~lfcde`eh
~e `m~ld~ mdn fehdo~ozl jyed~olyv ej y|dxm yova yln|f~oed$
B"`Nvv
Iy Xmydl YevldaYmdv
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
17/68
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
y|dxMvmjl~
ewlym~oedv, Clyvbmd vmon$ Xco`l ~clvl odf|y"
voedv ylwylvld~ f`evl fm``v mdn myl blmv|yln
od ll~ ym~cly ~cmd od bo`lv, o~ ov de~ n|l ~e
`|fa ~cm~ xl mzly~ novmv~ly ed m nmo` imvov$ O~v
ilfm|vl e yei|v~ wyefln|ylv, vml nlvohdv mdn
xl`` ~ymodln mdn m`ly~ fed~ye``lyv mdn wo`e~v$ Xl oyb` il`olzl ~cm~ ~cl obw`lbld~m~oed e
e|y ylfebbldnm~oedv, vebl e xcofc myl ezly
=7 lmyv e`n, xo`` yln|fl ~cl fcmdflv e y|dxm
fe``ovoedv, ~cl `oal`oceen e m wo`e~ bov~mald`
vl`lf~odh md odfeyylf~ y|dxm ey ~msoxm ey
~cl oal`oceen e md lsf|yvoed$
Vcl fo~ln md |dodovcln DVI odzlv~ohm~oed
od~e m vlyoe|v odfonld~ ~cm~ fm``v od~e }|lv~oed
~cl b|`~ow`l `mlyv e nlldvl$ Ed Ef~$ =?,
977?, m~ mie|~ 7:77, m Nl`~m Moy @odlv Ielodh
8:8 febw`l~odh m `ohc~ yeb Yoe nl Kmdloye~e M~`md~m xmv f`lmyln ~e `mdn ed Y|dxm 98Y,
i|~ odv~lmn `mdnln Qxo~ce|~ odk|yolv ey nmb"
mhlR ed m wmym``l` ~msoxm k|v~ dey~c e ~cl
y|dxm, vcl vmon$ O~ xmv nmya, mdn zovoio`o~
xmv ylwey~ln m~ =7 bo Q=: abR$ Wyl`obodmy
odeybm~oed odnofm~lv ~cm~ dlo~cly ~cl `ohc~
fylx dey ~cl moy ~ymof fed~ye``lyv ylm`o{ln ~cm~
md~codh xmv xyedh |d~o` ~cl moyfym~ xmv ye``"
odh e|~ ed ~cl ~msoxm$
cov odfonld~ vce|`n il ld~oyl` v|ofold~
~e mffl`lym~l mnew~oed e noylf~ xmydodh vv~lbv
ed moyfym~ mdn od moy ~ymof fed~ye` #MF/ mfo`o"
~olv, Clyvbmd vmon, mnnodh, cl JMM ov ~maodh
febbldnmi`l mf~oed, i|~ o~ ov k|v~ ~ee v`ex$
Fcyov H`mlvly, noylf~ey, h`eim` vml~, Od"
~lydm~oedm` Moy ymdvwey~ Mvvefom~oed #OMM/,
keodln e~clyv od fm``odh ey fmyl|` lsmbodm~oed
e m~ld~ mdn fed~ls~|m` mf~eyv ileyl f`evodh
md odzlv~ohm~oed e m y|dxm odfonld~ ey mf"
fonld~$ Cl fo~ln edl moy`odlv odzlv~ohm~oed$ cl
`ohc~ fylx cmn illd hozld ~mso Qodv~y|f~oedvR
~e m y|dxm ed ozl effmvoedv ozl nolyld~
f`lmymdflv ~e he ~e m wmy~of|`my y|dxm ~cld
~cl `mv~ f`lmymdfl xmv ~e ~mal e obblnom~l` ed
m nolyld~ y|dxm, H`mlvly vmon$ cl he~ o~
xyedh mdn ~eea e ed ~cl xyedh y|dxm$
OMMv xey`nxonl odfonld~ nm~m ey 977?
vcexln edl m~~lbw~ln mdn ~cyll febw`l~ln
`mdnodhv ed ~msoxmv i `myhl febblyfom`
kl~v, odf`|nodh ~cl M~`md~m `mdnodh fo~ln i
Clyvbmd$ OMM blbilyv `m~lv~ y|dxm vml~
fedflydv cmzl ylze`zln mye|dn wylvv|yl ed
`ohc~ fylxv de~ ~e |vl ylzlyvl ~cy|v~ m~ dohc~,
lzld ed m vcey~ y|dxm xo~c m ~mo` xodn, il"
fm|vl e deovl mim~lbld~ y|`lv1 mfa e mff|ym~l
blmv|ylbld~ e y|dxm fed~mbodm~oed od m~obl` bmddly ey `ohc~ fylxv1 m~l y|dxm
fcmdhlv i MF ey ~male ey `mdnodh1 odmff|"
ym~l moywey~ nomhymbv od l`lf~yedof `ohc~ imhv
#LJIv/ ey moywey~v e|~vonl ~cl \do~ln V~m~lv
~cm~ mo` ~e nlwof~ |dvlyzoflmi`l ~msoxmv mdn
~msoxm fedv~y|f~oed1 mdn `mfa e nlwof~oed e
ldhodllyln bm~lyom` myylv~odh vv~lbv #LBMV/
ed moywey~ fcmy~v, xcofc bohc~ fm|vl wo`e~v
md~ofowm~odh md ezlyy|d ~e v~lly mxm yeb md
LBMV iln od m bov~mald ley~ ~e mzly~ v~yoa"
odh ~cl mwwyemfc `ohc~v$Mhhylhm~ln ze`|d~my wo`e~ ylwey~v m`ylmn
fmd onld~o ey ~cl JMM mdn moy`odlv moywey~ ce~
vwe~v e wo`e~%nyozly fed|voed, mdn ylfeynln
`ohc~ nm~m fmd onld~o fedfld~ym~oedv e ~cl
|dv~mi`l mwwyemfclv ~cm~ oh|yl od~e lsf|yvoedv
#Joh|yl =, w$ =:/, vmon Bofcml` Imvlceyl, bmd"
mhly e ~cl JMMv Mzom~oed Vml~ Odeybm~oed
Mdm`vov mdn Vcmyodh wyehymb #MVX, 3%7?, ww$
=9 mdn 69/$
Xl de~ofln m wylwednlymdfl e mzom~oed
vml~ mf~oed wyehymb ylwey~v m~ edl wmy~of|`my
moywey~ xclyl fed|voed ylv|`~ln yeb ~cyll
f`evl` vwmfln y|dxm ldnv mdn d|blye|v Qy|d"
xm wevo~oed ce`nodh bmyaodhv, Joh|yl 9, w$ =8R,
Imvlceyl vmon$ cl ~yomdh`l eybln i ~cl ce`n
vcey~ `odlv m`` od edl `efm~oed w`|v ~cl wmym``l`
ce`n vcey~ `odlv Q`ln ~eR m cohc wlyfld~mhl e
ylwey~v vmodh, Xl myl fed|vln, ~clyl myl ve
bmd ce`n vcey~ `odlv ~cm~ xl myl de~ ylm`` v|yl
xclyl ~cl myl$ I cmzodh md mhhylhm~l e nm~m,
de~ k|v~ nm~m yeb edl moy`odl, Qxl fe|`n vllR m
vwoal od ~cl ylwey~odh ve ~cm~ xl adlx ~e he od
mdn ef|v ed ~cov wmy~of|`my mylm$
Wo`e~ Wlyvwlf~ozlv
lfcde eh ov m xeyn yl}|ld~` mvvefom~ln
xo~c y|dxm vml~, i|~ O xmd~ ~e lbwcmvo{l
~cm~ c|bmd mf~eyv, ~cl c|bmd wlyeybmdfl,
ov m``"obwey~md~ xcl~cly xl myl ~m`aodh mie|~
~cl vdexw`ex nyozly ey ~cl moy ~ymof fed~ye``lyF
cyovVeyldvldWce~ehymwc
http://flightsafety.org/asw/aug09/asw_aug09_p9-11.pdfhttp://flightsafety.org/asw/aug09/asw_aug09_p32-37.pdfhttp://flightsafety.org/asw/aug09/asw_aug09_p9-11.pdfhttp://flightsafety.org/asw/aug09/asw_aug09_p32-37.pdf -
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
18/68
Onld~ojodh yldnv od \dv~mi`l Mwwyemfclv
9,777
=,777
\dv~mi`l mwwyemfc
Cohc ym~l ej nlvfld~ ed jodm` mwwyemfc
Jmv~ mwwyemfc
@m~l jodm` j`mw ls~ldvoedMiezl nlvoyln h`onl wm~c ed mwwyemfc
@ex wexly ed mwwyemfc
He"mye|dn
Clohc~ miezl ~e|fcnexd >?7 j~ #
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
19/68
Fedj|vodh Y|dxm Wevo~oed Ce`nodh Bmyaodhv
3@
3Y
=9
M
I
F
M 2 Ce`n vcey~ clyl ey moyfym~ myyozm`v ed Y|dxm 67
I 2 Ce`n vcey~ clyl ey moyfym~ myy ozm`v ed Y|dxm 9:@
F 2 Ce`n vcey~ clyl ey moyfym~ nlwmy~|ylv ed Y|dxmv 3Y%=9
De~l; M ~yldn od mhhylhm~ln wo`e~ ylwey~v ~e ~cl mzom~oed vml~ mf~oed wyehymbv m~ vebl\$V$ moy`odlv ylzlm`ln nojf|`~ od feyylf~` febw`odh xo~c moy ~ymjf fed~ye` odv~y|f~oedv ~ece`n vcey~ e ~clvl y|dxmv m~ ~cov \$V$ moywey~ `efm~oed, mffeynodh ~e ~cl Mzom~oed Vml~
Odeybm~oed Mdm`vov mdn Vcmyodh wyehymb$
Ve|yfl; \$V$ Jlnlym` Mzom~oed Mnbodov~ym~oed mdn Heeh`l Lmy~c
Joh|yl 9
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
y|dxMvmjl~
v|fc m f`lmymdfl1 MF we`ofolv e xmo~odh ey m~
`lmv~ m 8 a~ ~mo` xodn ileyl fcmdhodh myyozodh
moyfym~ ~e m beyl mzeymi`l y|dxm1 mdn xcm~
OJM@WM fedvonlyv lsflvvozl fyevvxodnv ey `odl
ewlym~oedv, Vm`m{my vmon$
ymododh e moyol`n nyozlyv b|v~ il nlvohdlnod `ohc~ e ~cl ~|ydezly e ~cl xeyaeyfl mdn
yl}|ld~` ylodeyfl mxmyldlvv e ~cylm~v mdn
lyyeyv, vebl wylvld~lyv vmon$ Lzly ~lfcde`"
eh cl`wv o o~ ldcmdflv vo~|m~oedm` mxmyldlvv,
ldmi`lv moyol`n nyozlyv ~e lswlyoldfl cm{myne|v
vfldmyoev mdn lvfmwl yeb nmdhly, ey onld~o"
olv v|ymfl ce~ vwe~v od vob|`m~eyv, vmon Kmblv
Fyo~lv, lslf|~ozl zofl wylvonld~ e ewlym~oedv m~
Nm``mv%Jey~ Xey~c Od~lydm~oedm` Moywey~ #NJX/$
F`lmy febb|dofm~oed mdn fedvov~ld~ febw`o"
mdfl xo~c vml wymf~oflv de~ dlx vv~lbv ylbmod ~cl cohclv~ wyoeyo~, cl mnnln$
Wymf~ofm` cleyolv
B|`~o~mvaodh mdn wyevwlf~ozl"blbey obo~m"
~oedv cmzl bmkey obw`ofm~oedv ey y|dxm vml~,
vmon Y$ Al Novb|alv, fcol vfold~ov~, mlyevwmfl
c|bmd mf~eyv, C|bmd Vv~lbv Od~lhym~oed
Nozovoed e ~cl \$V$ Dm~oedm` Mlyedm|~ofv mdn
Vwmfl Mnbodov~ym~oed #DMVM/ Mblv Ylvlmyfc
Fld~ly$ B|`~o~mvaodh od bev~ vo~|m~oedv mf~|m``
blmdv ymwon` vxo~fcodh m~~ld~oed mbedh nov"
fyl~l ~mvav, cl vmon #MVX, 3%7?, w$ =3/$ Wyevwlf"
~ozl blbey yllyv ~e m wlyvedv fmwmio`o~ ~e
ylblbily vebl~codh cl ey vcl od~ldnv ~e ne
`m~ly, mdn lsw`modv xc ~cl wlyved fmd eyhl~ ~e
wlyeyb ~cl ~mva nlvwo~l ~cl od~ld~oed$
O~ ~malv m bebld~ xco`l xl novldhmhl
yeb edl ~mva mdn ylldhmhl od ~cl e~cly ~mva,
Novb|alv vmon$ N|yodh ~cm~ bebld~, wlew`l
ylfedv~y|f~ ~cloy bld~m` benl` QveR ~cl `ohc~
fylx ov z|`dlymi`l ~e lyyey lvwlfom`` o ~cl
ne de~ cmzl heen zov|m` f|lv ~e ylbodn ~clb e
~cl v~m~l e ~cl e~cly ~mva$
Mbedh |dvml ilcmzoeyv de~ln i DMVM
`ohc~ nlfa eivlyzlyv cmzl illd oyv~ eoflyv
xce ylflozln md mbldnln MF f`lmymdfl n|y"
odh ~mso, ~cld ilfmbl osm~ln od clmn"nexd
benl ~yodh ~e ve`zl m wyei`lb odv~lmn e bedo"
~eyodh ~cl fmw~modv mf~oedv mdn ezlym`` vo~|m~oed$
Od vebl fmvlv, ~cl oyv~ eofly bovvln ~cl ed`
ewwey~|do~ ~e wylzld~ m fmw~mod yeb ~msoodh
xo~ce|~ f`lmymdfl ed~e md mf~ozl y|dxm$
Od~lydm~oedm Fedflydv
Nm~m vcex ~cm~ ?
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
20/68
=3 pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
y|dxMvmjl~
mfo`o~m~ln mnew~oed e bmd ylfeb"
bldnln wymf~oflv xo~cod mdn e|~vonl
L|yewl, mdn beyl ~cmd =77 y|dxm
vml~ ~lmbv od L|yewl dex ye|~odl`
onld~o `efm` ovv|lv$
L|yefed~ye cmv wyezonln ~lfcdofm`mnzofl ~e vlzlym` moywey~v odf`|n"
odh Fcmy`lv nl Hm|``l Moywey~ od Wmyov
mdn @edned Clm~cyex Moywey~ ed
ldcmdfodh v~ew imyv mdn e~cly moyol`n
vv~lbv xo~c m febbed |vly od~lymfl
~e nlzl`ew xo~cod m ozl" ~e =7"lmy
~obl ymbl fmwmio`o~olv vobo`my ~e
y|dxm v~m~|v `ohc~v #YXV@/ od ~cl
\do~ln V~m~lv, vmon Lyof Bomy~, bmd"
mhly, moywey~ wyehymb mdn ldzoyed"
bld~ mf~ozo~ ey ~cl mhldf$ YXV@ ovQfebwm~oi`lR xo~c ~cl xm xl f|yyld~`
|vl v~ew imyv m~ L|yewlmd moywey~v ~e
wye~lf~ ~cl y|dxmv od `ex"zovoio`o~
fedno~oedv, cl vmon$
Od L|yewl, xl v~yedh` il`olzl ~cm~
febb|dofm~oed ov m~ ~cl clmy~ e ~cl
y|dxm odf|yvoed wyei`lb, Bomy~ vmon$
Edl xm ~e obwyezl ov ~e wyezonl
~cl fed~ye``lyv mdn ~cl `ohc~ fylxv
vwlfoof ~ee`v mdn vml~ dl~v, ~yodh mv
b|fc mv wevvoi`l Q~e mzeon vo~|m~oedvR
xclyl ~cl c|bmd xo`` il ~cl xlma
`oda$ cov lmy, L|yefed~ye` lswlf~v
~e mnn 97 ylfebbldnm~oedv ~e ~cl
L|yewlmd Mf~oed W`md ed ~cl |vl e
~lfcde`eh mdn ed fozo`"bo`o~my keod~
|vl moywey~v$
cl lsov~ldfl e beyl ~cmd 87 moy
~ymof vlyzofl wyezonlyv od ~cl ylhoed
febw`ofm~lv vcmyodh febbed l`lbld~v
e y|dxm vml~ wyehymbv, vmon Klb
N|dd, hye|w f|v~ebly mffe|d~ bmd"
mhly ey DMV \A$ cl ed` ~codh
~cm~ xo`` bmal ~cl dls~ v~lw fcmdhl Qef"
f|yR od y|dxm vml~ ov ~cl yohc~ wolfl
e ~lfcde`eh, i|~ m `ohc~ nlfa ve`|~oed
ov ~ee my mxm, mdn xl v~o`` cmzl ~cov
wyei`lb ~enm, cl vmon$
Od m ylfld~ odf|yvoed m~ dohc~, m
\$A$ fed~ye``ly l~ ~cl ~exly wevo~oed
xco`l m zlcof`l xmv ed ~cl mf~ozl
y|dxm xo~ce|~ w`mfodh blbey"
mon i`efaodh v~yowv, fed~ymy ~e ~cl
|v|m` wymf~ofl, ~cld cmdnln e n|~olv
xo~ce|~ bld~oedodh ~cl zlcof`l ~e m
fed~ye``ly xce cmn de v|ymfl v|yzlo`"`mdfl novw`m$ cl oyv~ ~ymdvbovvoed
e ~cl edfebodh fed~ye``ly xmv f`lmyln
ey ~male ~e ~cl moyw`mdl Qwo`e~ xceR
cmn k|v~ fm``ln cob, N|dd vmon$ cl
nyozly zmfm~ln ~cl y|dxm od ~obl ve`l"
` ilfm|vl e ~ymododh mdn mnclyldfl
~e ewlym~oedm` mdn ymnoe"bedo~eyodh
wyefln|ylv, cl vmon$
cl odfonld~ fmw~|yln ~cl m~~ld"
~oed e ~cl DMV \A fcol ewlym~odh
eofly #FEE/, mdn ~cl FEEv e``ex"|w `l~~ly cmn m wyee|dn llf~ od
ldfe|ymhodh wlyvedm` ylvwedvoio`o~
ey vml~, cl vmon$ Xl vce|`n ~mal
~cm~ mv m xmydodh mv e|y mffonld~,
mdn ilcmzl mv o xl cmn md mffonld~1 o~
xmv ed` m fe|w`l e ey~|o~e|v ~codhv
~cm~ v~ewwln o~ ilodh md mffonld~, ~cl
FEEv `l~~ly mnzovln fed~ye``lyv mdn
moywey~ ewlym~oedv noylf~eyv$
V~ew Imy Fmzlm~vOFME mzeyv lswmdnln |vl e v~ew
imyv, mdn ld~o~olv v|fc mv DMZ Fmdmnm
ylfld~` cmzl odv~m``ln beyl e ~clb$
Md odmnl}|m~l wyefln|ylv ey odfed"
vov~ld~ ylvwedvlv ~e o``|bodm~ln v~ew
imyv i `ohc~ fylxv mdn moyol`n nyoz"
lyv, cexlzly, fmd odfylmvl yova, vmon
Ily~ Y|o~ldilyh, md moy ~ymof fed~ye`"
`ly mdn c|bmd mf~eyv vwlfom`ov~ ey
~cl Od~lydm~oedm` Jlnlym~oed e Moy
ymof Fed~ye``lyv Mvvefom~oedv #OJ"
MFM/$ M v|yzl e MF mdn moywey~
wymf~oflv9 cmv alw~ m~~ld~oed ef|vln
ed novfylwmdfolv, lvwlfom`` wymf~oflv
od xcofc m wo`e~ ey nyozly ov lswlf~ln
~e fyevv md o``|bodm~ln v~ew imy, cl
vmon #MVX, 3%73, w$ 98/$
OFME vmv ~cm~ o ~cl v~ew imy ov
vxo~fcln e, ~cl moyfym~ ey Qzlcof`lR
fmd wyeflln, Y|o~ldilyh vmon$ OJ"
MFM nelv de~ mhyll xl vm ~cm~ m
f`lmymdfl ov dllnln od mnno~oed ~e ~cl
vxo~fcodh e e ~cl v~ew imy$ Cmzodh
moyfym~ mdn zlcof`lv fyevv `o~ v~ew imyv
ye|~odl` ed m nmo` imvov blmdv ~cm~~cl od~lhyo~ e ~cl wye~lf~oed ~cm~ v~ew
imyv myl od~ldnln ~e wyezonl ov, od mf~,
iyllfcln ed m nmo` imvov$
Zovoi`l Dls~Hld V~lwv
JMM Mnbodov~ym~ey Ymdn Imiio~~ vmon
~cm~ lmnodh ~cl mhldfv y|dxm vml~
ley~v myl ~cl 96 moywey~ v|ymfl nl~lf"
~oed l}|owbld~, benl` S #MVNL"S/
vv~lbv od w`mfl mv e Nlflbily, xo~c
m ~e~m` e 6< moywey~v v`m~ln ~e ylflozlMVNL"S i Mwyo` 97== #MVX, ?%73,
w$ >:/$ Nm~m yeb ~cl `mv~ ovfm` lmy
QvcexlnR =9 fm~lhey M mdn I odf|y"
voedv6 e|~ e beyl ~cmd
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
21/68
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
y|dxMvmjl~
mdn obw`lbld~m~oed$ Od 977?, nlbed"
v~ym~oed wyehymbv ey xonl` vcmy"
odh MVNL"S nm~m m~ Kecd J$ Alddln
Od~lydm~oedm` Moywey~ od Dlx _eya
mdn Blbwcov #lddlvvll/ Od~lydm"
~oedm` Moywey~ ldcmdfln vo~|m~oedm`mxmyldlvv$
Od~lhym~oed e MVNL"S mdn m|~e"
bm~of nlwldnld~ v|yzlo``mdfliyemn"
fmv~ #MNV"I/ m`ve ilfmbl mwwmyld~ od
dlx mww`ofm~oedv, mdn ~cl oyv~ v~mln
Dls~Hld MF ~exly m~ NJX xo``
nlbedv~ym~l od lmy` 97=7 fmwmio`o~
~e bmdmhl moyieydl mdn v|ymfl ~ymof
m~ ylbe~l moywey~v, Yebmdexvao vmon$
MNV"I ov m ylbmyami`l v|fflvv v~ey
xl`` ed ~ymfa ey |`` dm~oedxonlnlw`ebld~ i 97=6, cl vmon$ Xl cmzl
hedl ewlym~oedm` xo~c MF fyo~ofm`
vlyzoflv od @e|ovzo``l, Ald~|fa, \$V$, od
Dezlbily mdn QMNV"I od NlflbilyR
od ~cl H|` e Blsofe$ Xl myl weovln ~e
he ewlym~oedm` ey iyemnfmv~ vlyzoflv
od Iev~ed Wco`mnl`wcom od Jliy|my
mdn M`mvam od Mwyo`$
Zodfld~ Fmwl{{|~e, JMM MNV"I wye"
hymb bmdmhly, fedvonlyv MNV"I ~cl al
ldmi`ly ey hye|dn vlwmym~oed vlyzoflv
mdn e~cly y|dxm"vml~ mww`ofm~oedv,
de~odh dlmy"~lyb ildlo~v mv veed mv
moy`odlv mnn ~cl yl}|oyln mzoedofv$ cl
dls~ ~cyll QMNV"I nlzl`ewbld~R i`efav
nlm` xo~c ~cl mwwyemfc vl}|ldfl, ~cl
odm` mwwyemfc mdn y|dxm eff|wmdf
mdn odm`` moywey~ v|ymfl vo~|m~oedm`
mxmyldlvv, cl vmon$ Edl v|fc mww`ofm"
~oed ~e il ~lv~ln miemyn 97 \V Moyxmv
Moyi|v M667v xo`` il v|ymfl odnofm~oedv
mdn m`ly~odh$
E~cly bmkey 97=7 mf~ozo~olv od"
f`|nl ~cl ~ymdvo~oed e ~cl JMMv odm`
mwwyemfc y|dxm eff|wmdf vohdm`
v|ivv~lb e YXV@ ~e ewlym~oedm`
|vl1 ~lv~odh m~ Iev~ed @ehmd Od~ly"
dm~oedm` Moywey~ e mde~cly YXV@
v|ivv~lb y|dxm od~lyvlf~oed
`ohc~v xcofc veed xo`` ewlym~l od
fedk|df~oed xo~c y|dxm ld~ymdfl
`ohc~v mdn ~male ce`n `ohc~v m~ vebl
moywey~v #MVX, ?%73, w$ >:/1 mdn
dlx` nlvohdln `ex"fev~ hye|dn
v|yzlo``mdfl ey vbm``ly moy fmyyoly
moywey~v xclyl MVNL"S fe|`n de~ ilk|v~ooln, vmon Wm|` Jed~modl, wyehymb
bmdmhly, JMM Mnzmdfln lfcdofm`
Nlzl`ewbld~ mdn Wye~e~wodh Hye|w$
E~cly vo~lv xo~c YXV@ mbedh 99
vfcln|`ln myl NJX, Vmd Nolhe Od"
~lydm~oedm` Moywey~ mdn @ev Mdhl`lv
Od~lydm~oedm` Moywey~$
Wye~e~wodh e ~cl `ex"fev~ hye|dn
v|yzlo``mdfl vv~lbv ilhodv lmy` ~cov
lmy m~ Bmdfclv~ly, Dlx Cmbwvcoyl$
Xl cmzl nedl vo~l wylwmym~oed mdn~mald nl`ozly e vebl e ~cl l}|ow"
bld~, mdn w`md lzm`|m~oedv v~my~odh od
m ~coyn }|my~ly e 97=7 ~e 97== ~obl
ymbl, Jed~modl vmon$ E~cly vo~lv myl
Vmd Kevl mdn @edh Ilmfc, Fm`oeydom,
mdn Ylde, Dlzmnm$
cl \$V$ Dm~oedm` Moy ymof Fed"
~ye``lyv Mvvefom~oed mnzefm~lv ey ~cl
dlmy"~lyb ~cl |vl e v|ymfl v|yzlo`"
`mdfl ~lfcde`eh od lzly fed~ye` ~exly
m~ ~cl :7 i|volv~ \$V$ moywey~v, mv xl`` mv
~exly vob|`m~eyv ey ~cl bev~ llf~ozl
~ymododh, vmon Nm`l Xyohc~, noylf~ey,
vml~ mdn ~lfcde`eh$ O cmzl v~een
dls~ ~e fed~ye``lyv xcld Q~cloyR y|dxm
odf|yvoedv cmwwldln, mdn o~v m ol"
fcmdhodh lswlyoldfl vebl wlew`l ned~
febl imfa yeb, Xyohc~ vmon$ E|y
|`~obm~l hem` ov ~cm~ lzly ~exly cmzl
v|ymfl v|yzlo``mdfl$
LJI Bv~lycl JMM cmv onld~ooln 9= fmvlv od
xcofc wo`e~v, nlvwo~l |vodh LJIv xo~c
moywey~ bezodh bmw mdn exdvcow
wevo~oed novw`m, xlyl odze`zln od m
wo`e~ nlzom~oed mdn y|dxm odf|y"
voed, vmon Wymnow Veb, ylvlmyfc mdn
nlzl`ewbld~ bmdmhly, JMM Eofl
e Y|dxm Vml~$ Md |dylve`zln
}|lv~oed ey ~cl JMM ov ~cl nlhyll ~e
xcofc vml~ ildlo~v e|~xlohc fe`"
`ovoed yovav o wo`e~v vwldn ~ee b|fc
~obl clmn"nexd, cl vmon$
e `lmyd beyl, ~cl JMM ve my cmv
wmon ey odv~m``m~oed m~ lmfc e ozlvl`lf~ln moy`odlv |w ~e >7 LJIv xo~c
moywey~ bezodh bmw mdn exdvcow we"
vo~oed, ~xe wly moyw`mdl, xco`l ~myhl~"
odh moywey~v xo~c m cov~ey e y|dxm
odf|yvoedv, Veb vmon$ Mdm`vov ilhmd
od Kmd|my, mdn m~ly odm` moyfym~
odv~m``m~oedv i Vlw~lbily, ~cl JMM
xo`` v|yzl mdn od~lyzolx ~cl wo`e~v
mie|~ llf~v ed vo~|m~oedm` mxmyldlvv,
mdn nlzl`ew ylfebbldnm~oedv i
Dezlbily 97==$Ileyl ~cl JMM od~yen|flv md y|d"
xm vml~yl`m~ln fcmdhlv, ~obl"fed"
v|bodh wyeflvvlv b|v~ il febw`l~ln
i m vml~ yova bmdmhlbld~ nlfovoed
wmdl` mdn e~cly eofom`v, vmon ~cl JMMv
BfFeybofa$ V|fc wyeflvvlv f|yyld~`
ewlym~l xo~cod ~cl Moy ymof Eyhm"
do{m~oedv vml~ bmdmhlbld~ vv~lb$
Vml~ yova bmdmhlbld~ dllnv ~e ~mal
w`mfl ~e ldv|yl ~cm~ xl myl de~ odklf~odh
|dod~ldnln fedvl}|ldflv ey mnno~oedm`
yova, cl vmon$
dv
=$ Od m fm~lhey M y|dxm odf|yvoed, vlwmym"
~oed nlfylmvlv mdn wmy~ofowmd~v ~mal
ls~ylbl mf~oed ~e dmyyex` mzeon m fe``o"
voed, ey ~cl lzld~ ylv|`~v od m fe``ovoed$ Od
m fm~lhey I y|dxm odf|yvoed, vlwmym~oed
nlfylmvlv mdn ~clyl ov m vohdofmd~ we~ld"
~om` ey fe``ovoed$
9$ OJMFM$ OJMFM V|yzl Ylwey~;V~ewimyv$ 0xxx$om~fm$eyh4 Nlflbily
9773$
6$ ^l JMM vmon od md Ef~eily 977? dlxv
yl`lmvl ~cm~ ~cl =9 vlyoe|v y|dxm odf|y"
voedv od vfm` lmy #J_/ 977? xlyl
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
22/68
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
23/68
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
Fezlyv~ey
moyfym~ xmv |`` fedoh|yln ey ~cl `mdnodh, ~cl
ylwey~ vmon$ M~ mwwyesobm~l` 377 ~ MM@, ~cl
QvldoeyR fewo`e~ ~eea fed~ye` e ~cl moyfym~ od
mffeynmdfl xo~c ~cl iyolln wyefln|yl$
cl wyefln|yl fm``ln ey ~ymdvly e fed~ye`
yeb ~cl febbmdnly ~e ~cl fewo`e~ o ~cl fewo`e~
lv~mi`ovcln zov|m` fed~mf~ xo~c ~cl y|dxm ileyl
~cl moyfym~ ylmfcln nlfovoed clohc~1 e~clyxovl,~cl febbmdnly xe|`n ` ~cl bovvln mwwyemfc$
cl fewo`e~ vwe~~ln ~cl y|dxm xcld ~cl 888 xmv
mie|~ 9$< db #>$: ab/ yeb ~cl ~cylvce`n$
Vcey~` m~ly ~cl fewo`e~ ~eea fed~ye`, ~cl m|~e"
~cye~~`l vv~lb febbmdnln md odfylmvl od wexly
yeb ie~c ldhodlv$ cl ldhodlv odo~om`` ylvwedn"
ln, i|~ ldhodl wylvv|yl ym~oe #LWY/ ~cl ym~oe e
e|~`l~ wylvv|yl ~e od~mal wylvv|yl ey ~cl yohc~
ldhodl ~cld nlfylmvln ~e =$76, ey k|v~ miezl `ohc~
on`l, xcld ~cl moyfym~ xmv m~ 897 ~ MM@$ Vlzld
vlfednv `m~ly, `l~"ldhodl LWY nlfylmvln ~e =$79$
De Ylvwedvl
cl moyfym~ xmv il`ex >77 ~ MM@ xcld ~cl fylx
de~ofln ~cm~ moyvwlln xmv nlfylmvodh il`ex ~cl
~myhl~ e =6< a~ mdn ~cm~ ~cl ldhodlv xlyl wyen|f"
odh ed` v`ohc~` beyl ~cmd `ohc~ on`l ~cy|v~$
clvl mdebm`olv `oal` nov~ymf~ln ~cl fewo`e~ yeb
novldhmhodh ~cl m|~ewo`e~ m~ ~cl od~ldnln m`~o~|nl$
cl ldhodlv mo`ln ~e ylvwedn ~e |y~cly nl"bmdnv ey odfylmvln ~cy|v~ yeb ~cl m|~e~cye~~`l
Qvv~lbR mdn bmd|m` bezlbld~ e ~cl ~cy|v~
`lzlyv ~e |`` eyxmyn, ~cl ylwey~ vmon$ cl
moyvwlln yln|fln mv ~cl m|~ewo e~ m~~lbw~ln ~e
bmod~mod ~cl O@V h`onlv`ewl$
Bmv~ly fm|~oed mdn ex"moyvwlln xmydodhv
xlyl hldlym~ln xcld moyvwlln nyewwln ~e == #Mwyo` 977?/; >9>
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
34/68
69 pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
j`ohc~eWV
h
ylhey Ilmd, md lswlyoldfln wo"
`e~ mdn j`ohc~ odv~y|f~ey, vmv cl
xmvd~ lswlf~odh md wyei`lbv
xco`l wylwmyodh jey cov j`ohc~
jyeb I|y`odh~ed, Zlybed~, ~e W`m~~v"
i|yhc, Dlx _eya, \$V$ Cov Wowly Vldlfm
fclfaln e|~ jodl$ ^cl xlm~cly ~cm~ Mwyo`
lzldodh vllbln ildohd$ Xco`l xmo~odh
jey f`lmymdfl, cl xmv ~mald mimfa i m
ylwey~ ej xodnv h|v~odh ~e 6< a~ jyeb
=>7nlhyllv$ ^cl moy ~ymjjof fed~ye`"
`ly febbld~ln ed ymwon fcmdhlv od
wylvv|yl cl xmv eivlyzodh$ Cl vmon ~cl
Dm~oedm` Xlm~cly Vlyzofl eivlyzly yl"
jlyyln ~e ~cov mv m hymzo~ xmzl$ Dlo~cly
~cl fed~ye``ly dey Ilmd adlx xcm~ ~cl
xlm~cly eivlyzly xmv ~m`aodh mie|~$
Nlfonodh cl fe|`n nlm` xo~c ~cl
xodn, Ilmd xmv f`lmyln jey ~malejj$ ^cl
~malejj mdn odo~om` f`obi xlyl deybm`
i|~ cl veed ldfe|d~lyln ~|yi|`ldfl mv
ye|hc mv O cmzl lzly ldfe|d~lyln$ Cl
xmd~ln ~e f`obi ~e 9,:77 j~$ Xo~c ~cl
zly~ofm` vwlln odnofm~ey #ZVO/ wlhhln,
cl vce~ |w ~e 6,:77 j~$ Jodm`` fed~ye`"
`odh ~cl moyw`mdl, Ilmd ew~ln ~e ~|yd
mye|dn mdn `mdn imfa m~ I|y`odh~ed$
^cl xodn cmn dex vx|dh mye|dn ~e
987nlhyllv m~ 9< a~$ M~ ~cov weod~, cl
ylfm``ln, cov ym~l ej nlvfld~ ilfmbl
m`mybodh$ ^cl ZVO dex wlhhln m~ ~cl
ie~~eb ej ~cl vfm`l$ Nlvwo~l ~cl fed~ye`
nojjof|`~, cl `mdnln ~cl moyfymj~ xo~ce|~
j|y~cly odfonld~$ Ilmd bm de~ cmzl
adexd xcm~ m hymzo~ xmzl xmv, i|~
cl dex adlx xcm~ o~ fe|`n ne ~e md
moyw`mdl$=
Hymzo~ xmzlv myl k|v~ xmzlv mv
bev~ wlew`l deybm`` ~coda ej ~clb$
Hymzo~Dlmy` obwevvoi`l ~e wylnof~ mdn nojjof|`~ ~e
nl~lf~, ~cov xlm~cly wcldeblded wylvld~v
m connld yova, lvwlfom`` f`evl ~e ~cl hye|dn$
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
35/68
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
j`ohc~eWV
Xmzlv od ~cl eflmd myl ~lfcdofm`` hymz"
o~ xmzlv, jey lsmbw`l$ ^cl hymzo~
wmy~ ej ~cl ~lyb wyeimi` fedj|vlv ~cl
blmdodh e|~vonl ~cl jol`n ej bl~leye`"
eh$ Hymzo~ ov ed` edl ej ~cl jeyflv
~cm~ mjjlf~ xmzlv$ Hl~~odh m `o~~`l od~e
~cl vfoldfl clyl, hymzo~ xmzlv myl
wcvofm `odn|fln xmzlv, mv ewwevln
~e ~clybm``odn|fln xmzlv$ ^clybm``
odn|fln xmzlv myl ~cl ylv|`~ ej ~lb"
wlym~|yl mdn nldvo~ fed~ymv~v$ Bev~
v~mdnmyn xlm~cly vv~lbv ie~c m~ ~cl
v|yjmfl mdn m`ej~ myl ~clybm`` odn|fln
xmzlv$ Vebl eflmdof foyf|`m~oedv
xe|`n m`ve jm`` od~e ~cov fm~lhey$
M hymzo~ xmzl ov ~cl ylv|`~ ej m
wcvofm` nov~|yimdfl od md e~clyxovl
j`m~ j`|on j`ex$ _e| fmd vll xmzlv od
xm~ly ilfm|vl ~cl xm~ly o~vl`j ov zov"
oi`l$ _e| fmd~ noylf~` vll xmzlv od moy
ilfm|vl moy ov odzovoi`l$ M vobw`l xm ej
zov|m`o{odh hymzo~ xmzlv, cexlzly, ov ~e
~coda ej xcm~ cmwwldv xcld e| ~cyex
m yefa od m wedn$ Xmzlv bezl e|~ od m``
noylf~oedv jyeb ~cl nov~|yimdfl$ ^cl
vmbl ~codh cmwwldv od ~cl m~bevwclyl$
Zmyoe|v nov~|yimdflv wyen|fl hymzo~
xmzlv od ~cl m~bevwclyl$
Cex ne hymzo~ xmzlv jeyb5 e v~my~,
moy b|v~ il wcvofm`` jeyfln |w, jeyb"
odh ~cl fylv~ ej m xmzl$ Oj ~cl ldzoyed"
bld~ ov v~mi`l, ~cov novw`mfln moy xo``
~ldn ~e febl imfa nexd ~e o~v v~my~odh
ey l}|o`oiyo|b weod~$ M v~mi`l m~be"
vwclyl ov |v|m`` edl od xcofc m fee`ly
`mly ej moy vo~v |dnly m xmybly `mly$
^cl novw`mfln moy xo`` v~my~ ~e voda mdn
hmod nexdxmyn bebld~|b$ N|l ~e ~cl
bebld~|b, ~cl moy xo`` voda il`ex o~v
Be|d~mod xmzlv fmd
wyen|fl ld~of|`my f`e|nv$
XmzlvI_ LN IYE^MA
Y|vvl``Vcozl`%Nylmbv~obl
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
36/68
Fyevv"Vlf~oed ej m Hymzo~ Xmzl
@Cwylvv|yl Fedzlyhld~ ex wylvv|yl Nozlyhld~ ex V|yjmfl
Xmzl be~oed
Xmzl ~ye|hc
Vodaodh moyYovodh moy
Xmzl fylv~
Ve|yfl; Ln Iye~ma
Joh|yl =
6> pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
j`ohc~eWV
v~my~odh l`lzm~oed$ ^cov jeybv ~cl ~ye|hc
ej ~cl xmzl$ I|~ ~clybendmbof jeyflv
ey i|emdf xo`` bmal ~cl moy yovl
mhmod ~exmyn o~v eyohodm` `lzl`$ Oj o~ ezly"
vcee~v mhmod, ~cov ~obl ed ~cl |wvonl,
mde~cly xmzl fylv~ ov jeybln$ \v|m``d|blye|v xmzlv od m vl~, md |dn|`m~odh
xmzl ~ymod, xo`` il jeybln$
Jey wo`e~v, ~cl ilv~"adexd m~be"
vwclyof hymzo~ xmzlv myl ~cl be|d~mod
mdn `ll xmzlv jeybln xcld xodnv i`ex
mfyevv be|d~mode|v ~lyymod$ ^cl ceyo"
{ed~m` zey~ls, ey ye~ey, xcofc fmd jeyb
obblnom~l` ed ~cl `ll vonl ov mvvefo"
m~ln xo~c ls~ylbl ~|yi|`ldfl$ ^clvl
ye~eyv myl m ~cylm~ ~e lzld `myhl moyfymj~,
mdn d|blye|v mffonld~v cmzl illd mv"vefom~ln xo~c ~clb$ Ej~ld ~clvl xmzlv
myl odnofm~ln i vwlfojof f`e|n jeybm"
~oedv v|fc mv `ld~of|`my ey ye~ey f`e|nv$
Oj ~cl moy ov nyoly, ~cl nmdhly {edl bm
de~ il f`lmy` zovoi`l$ Cexlzly, ~clvl
xmzlv ~ldn ~e il v~m~oedmy ey wyewm"
hm~l nexdv~ylmb xo~c ~cl xodn$ ^c|v,
~cl deybm`` fmd il mzeonln$
Xcm~ ov |v|m`` yljlyyln ~e od bl"
~leye`eh mv m hymzo~ xmzl ov m beio`l
xmzl od ~cl m~bevwclyl, xcofc wyl"
vld~v beyl ej m ~cylm~$ Hymzo~ xmzlv
cmzl m b|`~o~|nl ej fm|vlv; xodn vclmy
mvvefom~ln xo~c ~cl kl~ v~ylmb, ~cl jey"
bm~oed ej m jyed~ ey `ex, ~c|dnlyv~eybv
mdn c|yyofmdlv$ M`` ej ~clvl lzld~v fmd
wyen|fl hymzo~ xmzlv$ ^clvl xmzlv ej"
~ld myl nmbwln e|~ od ~cl m~bevwclyl
mdn wevl de wyei`lb$ E~cly ~oblv ~clfmd wyewmhm~l jey c|dnylnv ej bo`lv$
V~mi`l wmy~v ej ~cl m~bevwclyl myl ilv~
jey wyewmhm~odh xmzlv$
Hymzo~ xmzlv myl yl`m~ozl` vbm``"
vfm`l jlm~|ylv, xo~c xmzl`ldh~cv zmy"
odh jyeb ye|hc` < ~e dlmy` 677 db
#mwwyesobm~l` dodl ~e
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
37/68
Fe`n Vlmved Hymzo~ Xmzlv
@
Hymzo~ xmzl {edl
V|yjmfl `ex mdn jyed~v
V~yedhlv~xodnv
Kl~v~ylmb
Ve|yfl; Ln Iye~ma
Joh|yl 9
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
j`ohc~eWV
dey~c ej m xmyb jyed~ mdn dey~clmv~
ej ~cl v|yjmfl `ex #Joh|yl 9/$ V~yedh
kl~ v~ylmb xodnv xl` m`ej~ myl ~e ~cl
ve|~cxlv~$ cl hymzo~ xmzlv wyewmhm~l
dey~cxmyn xo~cod ~cl v`ewodh jyed~m`
`mly miezl ~cl hye|dn$ Od ~clvl vo~|m"~oedv, ~cl ljjlf~v ed vldvoi`l xlm~cly myl
ej~ld wyeje|dn$
Jey lsmbw`l, m bmkey xod~ly v~eyb
xmv mjjlf~odh dey~clyd O``odeov mdn Fco"
fmhe ECmyl Od~lydm~oedm` Moywey~$ @ohc~
~e benlym~l vdex xmv jm``odh xo~c zov"
oio`o~ yln|fln ~e bo #7$3 ab/$ Xodnv
xlyl i`exodh v~lmno` jyeb ~cl dey~clmv~
m~ 97 a~ #68 awc/$ ^cld m hymzo~ xmzl
ilhmd ~e mjjlf~ ~cl ylhoed$ Xo~cod bod"
|~lv, ~cl zovoio`o~ nyewwln ~e =%=: bo#7$= ab/ od clmz vdex$ ^c|dnly xmv
clmyn$ Xodnv h|v~ln ~e awc/$
Hymzo~ xmzlv hldlym~ln i ~c|d"
nlyv~eybv ey ~c|dnlyv~eyb febw`lslv
nlzl`ew od m vobo`my bmddly$ Od ~clvl
fmvlv, fee`ly moy jyeb ~cl ~c|dnlyv~eyb
nexdnymj~v co~v ~cl hye|dn mdn vwylmnv
e|~, ~cl `lmnodh lnhl ej ~cov e|~j`ex
jeybodh ~cl jmbo`omy h|v~ jyed~$ Ilcodn
~cov jlm~|yl, m v`ewodh jyed~m` v|yjmfl
vlwmym~lv fee`ly moy dlmy ~cl hye|dn
jyeb xmybly moy miezl$ Hymzo~ xmzlv
fmd nlzl`ew mdn wyewmhm~l xo~cod ~cl
fee`ly, v~mi`l moy$
Ej~ld de f`e|nv myl mvvefom~ln xo~c
~cl hymzo~ xmzlv ~clbvl`zlv, ve ~cl fmd
mwwyemfc |dmdde|dfln ~e wo`e~v$ Ed
Nlf$ :, =??3, m Illfc Imyed fymvcln n|y"
odh mwwyemfc ~e ~cl moywey~ m~ Deybmd,
Ea`mcebm, \$V$, ao``odh ~cl wo`e~$ ^cl
Dm~oedm` ^ymdvwey~m~oed Vmjl~ Iemyn
fedf`|nln ~cm~ vlzlyl ~|yi|`ldfl mdn
xodn vclmy xlyl ~cl wyeimi`l fm|vl ej ~cl
`evv ej fed~ye`$ Wo`e~ xlm~cly ylwey~v jyeb
dlmyi moyfymj~ xlyl wmy~ ej ~cl v|wwey~
jey ~cov fedf`|voed$ ^cl j`ohc~ fylx ej m
Ielodh 868 mwwyemfcodh Ea`mcebm Fo~v
Xo`` Yehlyv Jol`n, mie|~ 67 bo jyeb Dey"
bmd, dlmy ~cl ~obl ej ~cl fymvc ylwey~ln
ldfe|d~lyodh xodn vwlln zmyom~oed ej $
9$ Bo``ly, Nmzon X$ Lsw`eyodh ~cl Wev"
voio`o~ ej m @ex M`~o~|nl Hymzo~ Xmzl
Ldfe|d~ly mv ~cl Fm|vl ej m Hldlym`
Mzom~oed Mffonld~ dlmy Deybmd EA ed
Nlf$ :, =??3$ M wylvld~m~oed ~e ~cl ?~c
Fedjlyldfl ed Mzom~oed, Ymdhl, mdn
Mlyevwmfl Bl~leye`eh, Vlw~lbily 9777,
Ey`mdne, J`eyonm, \$V$
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
38/68
J`ohc~^YMODODH
6:
pJ`ohc~ vmJl~ Je|dnm~oed p MlYeVMjl^yXey`n p Jliy|my 97=7
od ~cl mj~lybm~c ej ~cl jm~m` Jliy|my
977? fymvc ej m Fe`hmd Moy Iebimy"
noly NCF"3">77 mdn m v|ivl}|ld~
fm`` jey ldcmdfln moy`odl vmjl~, ~cl
\$V$ Jlnlym` Mzom~oed Mnbodov~ym~oed
#JMM/ ov vllaodh ylfebbldnm~oedv ed
cex ~e obwyezl yl}|oylbld~v jey wo`e~
}|m`ojofm~oed mdn ~ymododh$
^cl JMM w|i`ovcln md mnzmdfl de"
~ofl ej wyewevln y|`lbmaodh #MDWYB/
ed Jli$ 3 ~e yl}|lv~ w|i`of febbld~
ed wevvoi`l ylh|`m~ey fcmdhlv$= ^cl
JMM vmon ~cl de~ofl xmv od~ldnln ~e
hm~cly odjeybm~oed ed xcl~cly f|yyld~
l`ohoio`o~, ~ymododh mdn }|m`ojofm~oed
yl}|oylbld~v jey febblyfom` wo`e~
fly~ojofm~oed myl mnl}|m~l$
^cl febbld~v jo`ln od ylvwedvl ~e
~cl MDWYB xo`` il |vln ~e nl~lybodl
~cl dlflvvo~ ej lv~mi`ovcodh mnno~oedm`
wo`e~ fly~ojofm~oed yl}|oylbld~v mdn ~e
nl~lybodl xcm~ ~cevl dlx yl}|oylbld~v
bohc~ odf`|nl, ~cl JMM vmon$ Febbld~v
b|v~ il v|ibo~~ln i Mwyo` ?$
Od ~cl MDWYB, ~cl JMM vmon ~cm~
~cl Fe`hmd fymvc jef|vln m~~ld~oed ed
xcl~cly m febblyfom`` ym~ln fewo`e~ od
Q\$V$ Jlnlym` Mzom~oed Ylh|`m~oedvR Wmy~
=9= Qmoy fmyyolyR ewlym~oedv ylflozlv
mnl}|m~l ~ymododh$ Vwlfojofm``, nelv m
fewo`e~v ~ymododh odf`|nl lde|hc ce|yv
ej ~ymododh od zmyoe|v xlm~cly fedno"
~oedv ~e il mi`l ~e ylfehdo{l m we~ld"
~om`` nmdhlye|v vo~|m~oed mdn ylvwedn
od m vmjl mdn ~obl` bmddly5
JMM Mnbodov~ym~ey Ymdn Imiio~~,
od ~lv~obed nl`ozlyln iljeyl ~cl mzom"
~oed v|ifebbo~~ll ej ~cl \$V$ Ce|vl
Febbo~~ll ed ^ymdvwey~m~oed mdn
Odjymv~y|f~|yl, vmon ~cm~ ~cl mhldf ov
xeyaodh ~e onld~oj bl~cenv ej ldcmdf"
odh ~cl wo`e~ fly~ojofm~oed wyeflvv ~e
onld~oj novfyl~l mylmv xclyl md odno"
zon|m` wo`e~ ylflozlv mdn v|fflvvj|``
febw`l~lv ~ymododh, ~c|v lv~mi`ovcodh
ewlym~oedm` lswlyoldfl od mylmv v|fc mv
~cl b|`~o"wo`e~ ldzoyedbld~, lswev|yl
~e ofodh, cohc m`~o~|nl ewlym~oedv mdn
e~cly mylmv febbed ~e febblyfom` moy
fmyyoly ewlym~oedv$9
Imiio~~ fyo~ofo{ln wyewevm`v i
vebl e|~vonl ~cl JMM ~e odfylmvl ~cl
bodob|b ce|yv yl}|oyln jey m wo`e~ ~e
ewlym~l m febblyfom` moyfymj~, ylmved"
odh ~cm~ odfylmvodh ~cl yl}|oyln j`ohc~
~obl ~e~m` ov de~, od o~vl`j, md mnl}|m~l
ylvwedvl ~e ~cl wyei`lb$
^clyl ov m nojjlyldfl il~xlld
adexodh m wo`e~ cmv illd lswevln ~e m``
fyo~ofm` vo~|m~oedv n|yodh ~ymododh zlyv|v
mvv|bodh ~cm~ vobw` j`odh beyl ce|yv
m|~ebm~ofm`` wyezonlv ~cm~ lswev|yl,
cl vmon$
^cl JMM vllav febbld~v ed wyewevm`v ~e ldcmdfl ~ymododh
mdn fly~ojofm~oed yl}|oylbld~v jey moy`odl wo`e~v$
I_ @ODNM XLYJL@BMD
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
39/68
J`ohc~^YMODODH
XXX$J`ohc~vmJl~$eyh p MlYeVMjl^yXey`n p Jliy|my 97=7
F
cyovVeyldvldWce~ehymwc
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
40/68
63
pJ`ohc~ vmJl~ Je|dnm~oed p MlYeVMjl^yXey`n p Jliy|my 97=7
J`ohc~^YMODODH
Vwlfojof ]|lv~oedv
Od ~cl MDWYB, ~cl JMM de~ln ~cm~ o~ m`ylmn ov
ylzolxodh w|i`of febbld~v ed m Kmd|my 977?
DWYB ~cm~ wyewevln ~e yl}|oyl |vl ej j`ohc~vob|`m~oed ~ymododh nlzoflv ~e ldcmdfl lsov~odh
~ymododh wyehymbv jey moy fmyyoly fylxblbilyv$
Cexlzly, ~cl 977? DWYB non de~ mnnylvv imvof
wo`e~ fly~ojofm~oed$
^cl MDWYB yl}|lv~ln febbld~v ed
vwlfojof }|lv~oedv, odf`|nodh xcl~cly ~cl JMM
vce|`n yl}|oyl m`` wo`e~v od Wmy~ =9= ewlym~oedv
~e ce`n md moy`odl ~ymdvwey~ wo`e~ #M^W/ fly~ojo"
fm~l, xcofc ov ovv|ln ed` ~e wo`e~v xo~c m~ `lmv~
=,
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
41/68
XXX$J`ohc~vmJl~$eyh p MlYeVMjl^yXey`n p Jliy|my 97=7
J`ohc~^YMODODH
~obl yl}|oylbld~ xo~c ~cl |vl ej j|``, ~cyll"msov
vob|`m~eyv, i|~ ed` ~e m `obo~ln ls~ld~$
Cl vmon ~cm~ ~cl JMM vce|`n yl}|oyl Wmy~
=9= wo`e~v ~e ce`n md M^W ey m~ m bodob|b,
Qnlbedv~ym~lR ~cl dlflvvmy mlyedm|~ofm` vao``
`lzl` mv yl}|oyln i md M^W ~e bmod~mod ~clfedjonldfl ej ~cl ~ymzl`odh w|i`of$
J`Yohc~, m Dey~c Fmye`odm joyb ~cm~
wyezonlv ~ymododh od j|``"be~oed vob|`m~eyv,
ldneyvln ~cl wyewevm` ~e fylm~l m dlx febbly"
fom` wo`e~ fly~ojofm~l ldneyvlbld~ ~cm~ xe|`n il
yl}|oyln iljeyl m wo`e~ fe|`n xeya mv m yl}|oyln
wo`e~ od Wmy~ =9= moy fmyyoly ewlym~oedv$
^clyl myl fly~mod vao`` vl~v |do}|l ~e QWmy~R
=9= j`ohc~ ewlym~oedv ~cm~ myl lvvld~om` jey wo`e~v
~e wevvlvv od eynly ~e ei~mod ~cl cohclv~ `lzl`
ej edheodh moy vmjl~, ~cl febwmd vmon$ Wo`e~vb|v~ il ~m|hc~ cex ~e bmdmhl m fefawo~ od ie~c
deybm` mdn mideybm` vo~|m~oedv |vodh m`` mzmo`"
mi`l ~ee`v$ ^cl vwlfojof ~ymododh yl}|oyln ~e
ylflozl m ~wl ym~odh wyezonlv m heen e|~`odl jey
~cov wyewevln ldneyvlbld~$
^cl Moy ymdvwey~ Mvvefom~oed ej Mblyofm,
xcofc, m~ wylvv ~obl, cmn de~ v|ibo~~ln feb"
bld~v ed ~cl MDWYB, vmon o~ xe|`n febbld~
od n|l fe|yvl mdn mnnln, Mv m hldlym` bm~~ly,
cexlzly, ~cl moy`odlv myl m`xmv od~lylv~ln od
lsw`eyodh blmv|ylv ~cm~ xo`` obwyezl ~cl vmjl~
wlyjeybmdfl i |~o`o{odh ~ymododh ylve|yflv
beyl ljjlf~ozl` mdn ljjofold~`$
N|yodh fedhylvvoedm` clmyodhv od m~l 977?,
e~cly eyhmdo{m~oedv novf|vvln vebl ej ~cl wyewev"
m`v ~cm~ |`~obm~l` xlyl mnnylvvln od ~cl MDWYB$
N|yodh m Vlw~lbily clmyodh iljeyl ~cl mzom"
~oed v|ifebbo~~ll ej ~cl \$V$ Ce|vl ej Ylwyl"
vld~m~ozlv Febbo~~ll ed ^ymdvwey~m~oed mdn
Odjymv~y|f~|yl, Kecd Wym~ly, wylvonld~ ej ~cl Moy
@odl Wo`e~v Mvvefom~oed, Od~lydm~oedm` #M@WM/,
novf|vvln cov eyhmdo{m~oedv v|wwey~ jey `lhov`m"
~oed v|ivl}|ld~` mwwyezln i ~cl Ce|vl
~e yl}|oyl m`` moy`odl wo`e~v ~e ce`n md M^W mdn
m bodob|b ej =,
^cl fmw~modv ylvwedvl ~e
~cl mf~ozm~oed ej ~cl v~ofa
vcmaly vce|`n cmzl illd
m|~ebm~of, ~cl D^VI vmon,
i|~ cov obwyewly j`ohc~
fed~ye` odw|~v xlyl odfed"
vov~ld~ xo~c cov ~ymod"
odh mdn xlyl odv~lmn
fedvov~ld~ xo~c v~my~`l
mdn fedj|voed$
Mv m ylv|`~ ej ~cl
mffonld~ odzlv~ohm"
~oed, ~cl D^VI
ovv|ln m d|bily
ej vmjl~ ylfeb"
bldnm~oedv ~e ~cl
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
42/68
>7
pJ`ohc~ vmJl~ Je|dnm~oed p MlYeVMjl^yXey`n p Jliy|my 97=7
J`ohc~^YMODODH
JMM, mbedh ~clb vlzlym` ~cm~ nlm`~
xo~c wo`e~ ~ymododh, odf`|nodh vwlfojof
ylfebbldnm~oedv jey v~m`` ~ymododh mdn
ylblnom` ~ymododh$
Mv wo`e~v ~ymdvo~oed ~e `myhly ~ymdv"
wey~ fm~lhey moyw`mdlv, ~cl ne de~cmzl md ewwey~|do~ ~e lswlyoldfl v~m``v
od j`ohc~ ey od m vob|`m~ey, ilfm|vl moy
fmyyoly ~ymododh nelv de~ yl}|oyl wo`e~v
~e wymf~ofl ylfezlyolv jyeb j|`` nlzl`"
ewln v~m``v, D^VI Fcmoybmd Nlieymc
M$W$ Clyvbmd vmon `m~ly, od ~lv~obed ~e
~cl mzom~oed v|ifebbo~~ll ej ~cl \$V$
Vldm~l Febbo~~ll ed Febblyfl, Vfo"
ldfl mdn ymdvwey~m~oed$ e~cly fmyyo"
lyv xlyl de~ v|iklf~ ~e ~cl vmbl odvwlf"
~oed ilfm|vl ~cl cmn obw`lbld~ln
JMM"mwwyezln mnzmdfln }|m`ojofm~oed
wyehymbv #M]Wv/ ze`|d~my wye"
hymbv nlvohdln ~e odfylmvl vmjl~ i
obwyezodh ~ymododh mdn lzm`|m~oed$ Ej~clvl ?? fmyyolyv, 8: odf`|nodh m`` =>
M]W fmyyolyv cmn vv~lbv od w`mfl
jey ylblnom` ~ymododh yl}|oylbld~v$
^cl JMM m`ve vmon o~ cmn nlzl`ewln
h|onmdfl jey ~cl odn|v~y mdn jey JMM
odvwlf~eyv ed cex ~e ylzolx ~ymododh
od ~cl fed~ls~ ej m vmjl~ bmdmhlbld~
vv~lb$ Od mnno~oed, ~cl mhldf w`mdv
~e w|i`ovc md DWYB ~cov lmy ed j`ohc~
mdn n|~ ~obl `obo~m~oedv mdn ylv~ yl"
}|oylbld~v jey j`ohc~ fylxblbilyv$
^cl JMM cmv ylflozln xyo~~ld feb"
bo~bld~v jyeb 39 wlyfld~ ej \$V$ Wmy~
=9= moy fmyyolyv xcofc ylwylvld~ ?3
wlyfld~ ej m`` Wmy~ =9= moyfymj~ ~e
obw`lbld~ vwlfojof vmjl~ wymf~oflv
e|~`odln i ~cl mhldf$ Ej ~cl Wmy~ =9=
moyfymj~, ?3 wlyfld~ myl ewlym~ln i fmy"
yolyv ~cm~ lo~cly cmzl obw`lbld~ln, ey
myl w`mddodh ~e obw`lbld~, md mzom~oed
vmjl~ mf~oed w`md #MVMW/, m ze`|d~my,
vl`j"novf`ev|yl ylwey~odh wyehymb1 mdn
?> wlyfld~ myl ewlym~ln i fmyyolyv ~cm~
cmzl obw`lbld~ln ey myl w`mddodh ~e
obw`lbld~ ie~c md MVMW mdn m j`ohc~
ewlym~oedm` }|m`o~ mvv|ymdfl #JE]M/
wyehymb, vebl~oblv adexd mv m j`ohc~
nm~m bedo~eyodh wyehymb$
M`ve, ~cl JMM vmon, ~cl `myhlv~
wmvvldhly moy`odlv cmzl ~mald v~lwv ~e
odfylmvl febb|dofm~oed, nm~m vcmy"
odh mdn feewlym~oed xo~c ~cloy wmy~dly
moy`odlv ed obw`lbld~m~oed ej ljjlf~ozl
vmjl~ wymf~oflv$
M`` vlzld `miey eyhmdo{m~oedv
fed~mf~ln i ~cl JMM cmzl wyezonlnxyo~~ld febbo~bld~v ~e v|wwey~ wye"
jlvvoedm` v~mdnmynv febbo~~llv od ~cl
nlzl`ewbld~ ej wlly m|no~ mdn ylzolx
wyefln|ylv mdn jeybm` fenlv ej l~cofv,
~cl mhldf vmon$ ^cl JMM w`mdv ~e cev~
m bll~odh ej ~clvl eyhmdo{m~oedv ~cov
lmy ~e nlzl`ew h|onl`odlv ed fefawo~
novfow`odl mdn wyejlvvoedm`ovb$
^cl JMM m`ylmn cmv cl`n =9
ylhoedm` vmjl~ jey|bv ~e novf|vv wo`e~
jm~oh|l, miey"bmdmhlbld~ ovv|lv mdne~cly vmjl~ ovv|lv$
D~v
=$ JMM$ Dlx Wo`e~ Fly~ojfm~oed Yl}|oylbld~v
ey Moy Fmyyoly Ewlym~oedv$ Nefal~ De$
JMM"97=7"7=77$ 0xxx$ylh|`m~oedv$hez%
vlmyfc%Ylhv%cebl$c~b`&nefal~Nl~mo`5Y2
JMM"97=7"7=774$
9$ Imiio~~, K$ Ymdne`wc$ lv~obed iljeyl ~cl
\$V$ Ce|vl Febbo~~ll ed ^ymdvwey~m~oed
mdn Odjymv~y|f~|yl, v|ifebbo~~ll ed mzom"
~oed$ Jli$ >, 97=7$
6$ Wym~ly, Kecd$ lv~obed iljeyl ~cl \$V$
Ce|vl Febbo~~ll ed ^ymdvwey~m~oed mdn
Odjymv~y|f~|yl, v|ifebbo~~ll ed mzom~oed$
Vlw~$ 96, 977?$ M`ve, md Ef~$ =6, 977?, `l~"
~ly ~e blbilyv ej ~cl Ce|vl$
>$ D^VI$ @evv e Fed~ye` ed Mwwyemfc,
Fe`hmd Moy Odf$, Ewlym~odh mv Fed~odld~m`
Feddlf~oed J`ohc~ 6>78, Iebimynoly
NCF"3">77, D977X], F`myldfl Fld~ly,
Dlx _eya, Jliy|my =9, 977?, D^VI%MMY"
=7%7=$ M`ve, vmjl~ ylfebbldnm~oed l~~ly~e JMM Mnbodov~ym~ey K$ Ymdne`wc Imiio~~,
Jli$ 96, 97=7$
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
43/68
xxx$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
odVohc~
mvmjl~ bmdmhlbld~ vv~lb #VBV/ ov
ilfebodh ~cl v~mdnmyn vmjl~ wyehymb
~cye|hce|~ ~cl xey`n$ O~ cmv ilfebl
bmdnm~ey jey Od~lydm~oedm` Fozo` Mzom"
~oed Eyhmdo{m~oed #OFME/ moy fmyyoly ewlym~oedv
mdn ov ze`|d~myo` ilodh obw`lbld~ln i fey"
weym~l mdn hezlydbld~ mzom~oed nlwmy~bld~v$
O~v we~ld~om` zm`|l ~e ~cl v|fflvv ej md eyhmdo{m"
~oedv bovvoed cmv illd wyezld$
Mffe|d~mi l lslf|~ozlv cmzl vcexd ~cloy
v|wwey~ i zlyim` mdn zovoi`l blmv|ylv$ ^cl
wyen|fl v~yedh vmjl~ we`ofolv mdn myl od"
v~y|bld~m` od ~cl nlzl`ewbld~ ej m wyemf~ozl
mdn wylnof~ozl wyehymb$ Vmjl~ wlyveddl` myl
h
w
VBV jey ~cBonn`l Bmdmhy^cl ldhodl ~cm~ nyozlv VBV ov `odl bmdmhlbld~$
Iy Bofcml` ImYY
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
44/68
>9
pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
odVohc~
ylflozodh jeybm` vmjl~ ~ymododh mdn ln|fm~oed
od ~cl blfcmdofv mdn obw`lbld~m~oed ej VBV$
^cl ildljo~v ej VBV myl vcexd i odfylmvln
wyen|f~ozo~ xo~c lvv yova ~e ~cl eyhmdo{m~oed$
\do~ wlyveddl` myl ln|fm~ln ed cex ~cl fmd
v|wwey~ ~cl VBV wyehymb$
Xo~c m`` ~clvl wlew`l xeyaodh ve cmyn
~e obw`lbld~ m zoiymd~ VBV, xc cmvd~ o~
bm~|yln od~e m v~yedh xeyaodh wyehymb xo~c
wevo~ozl ildljo~v ~cye|hce|~ ~cl mzom~oed
odn|v~y5 Od bmd fmvlv, eyhmdo{m~oedv vm ~cl
cmzl md VBV wyehymb, i|~ od ylm`o~ ~cl ed`
fcmdhl ~cl fezly wmhl ed ~cloy vmjl~ wyehymb
nef|bld~ mdn fm`` o~ VBV$ ^cl wylzoe|v vmjl~
wyehymb bmdmhlbld~ vv~lb fed~modln bmd
l`lbld~v ej md VBV, i|~ o~ jmo`ln ~e ce`n m``
`lzl`v ej bmdmhlbld~ mffe|d~mi`l jey m vmjl~
vv~lb$
^cl vmjl~ nlwmy~bld~ ov ylvwedvoi`l jey
lv~mi`ovcodh md VBV, i|~ ~cl v|fflvv ej v|fc m
wyehymb ylv~v ed ~cl vce|`nlyv ej bmdmhlbld~
wlyveddl`$ M wlyvedm` ylzolx xo~c beyl ~cmd
>77 vmjl~ wyejlvvoedm`v ylzlm`v ~cm~ edl ej ~cl
bmkey v~|bi`odh i`efav ~e ~cl obw`lbld~m~oed
ej md ljjlf~ozl mdn ndmbof VBV wyehymb ov
bonn`l bmdmhlbld~$ cl ylmvedv myl bmd,
i|~ ~xe ej ~cl bev~ obwey~md~ myl m `mfa ej
|dnlyv~mdnodh ej ~cloy ye`l mdn ~cl il`olj ~cm~
vmjl~ wyehymbv myl ve`l` ~cl ylvwedvoio`o~ ej
~cl vmjl~ nlwmy~bld~$
O il`olzl xl dlln ~e v~ylvv ~cl obwey~mdfl
mdn bl~cenv ej odze`zlbld~ ej bonn`l bmd"
mhlbld~ od wyehymbv v|fc mv hem`v mdn eiklf"
~ozlv1 ln|fm~oed mdn ~ymododh1 k|v~ f|`~|yl1 yova
bmdmhlbld~ wyehymbv1 fcmdhl bmdmhlbld~
wyeflvv1 ewlym~oedm` vmjl~ ylzolxv1 m|no~v1 vmjl~
mf~oed hye|w #VMH/1 mdn mffe|d~mio`o~olv$
Ylblbily ~cm~ Vmjl~ ov m feyweym~l v~mjj
j|df~oed ~cm~ mnzovlv i|~ cmv `o~~`l oj md
m|~ceyo~ ~e noylf~ mf~oedv$ ^cl ldhodl ~cm~
nyozlv VBV ov `odl bmdmhlbld~1 ~cl myl mf"
fe|d~mi`l jey obw`lbld~odh VBV$ W`|v, ~cl
ldv|yl ~cm~ febwmd wlyveddl` febw` xo~c
VBV we`ofolv mdn wyefln|ylv$ Xo~ce|~ ~cl
mf~ozl v|wwey~ ej bonn`l bmdmhlbld~, VBV ov
neebln ~e jmo`$
Vmjl~ mnzovlyv fedv~md~ ~clbl ov ~cm~ ~cloy
iohhlv~ c|yn`l ov bon"`lzl` bmdmhlbld~$ cl
xovc ~cm~ bonn`l bmdmhlyv xe|`n ylflozl ~cl
VBV ~ymododh, lzld oj ~cl ln|fm~oed fezlyv ed`
~cl imvofv ej ~cl wyehymb$ Vodfl ~cov ov de~
m`xmv wevvoi`l ey wyeimi`l, odl bmdmhlbld~
b|v~ il ln|fm~ln mie|~ ~cl ildljo~v ej VBV i
vmjl~ wlyveddl`$
F c y o v V e y l
d v l d W c e ~ e h y m w c
Edl e ~cl bmkey
v~|bi`odh i`efav ~e
~cl obw`lbld~m~oed
e md ljlf~ozl
mdn ndmbof VBV
wyehymb ov bonn`l
bmdmhlbld~$
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
45/68
xxx$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
odVohc~
Hozld ~cl obwey~mdfl ej bonn`l bmdmhl"
bld~ v|wwey~ mdn odze`zlbld~ od m v|fflvvj|`
VBV wyehymb, v|hhlv~oedv ~e vmjl~ mnzovlyv ed
cex ~e ln|fm~l bonn`l bmdmhlyv myl dllnln$
Bonn`l bmdmhlbld~ fmdde~ il lswlf~ln ~e v|w"
wey~ v|fc m ymnofm` dlx fedflw~ oj ~cl ne de~adex o~v wyodfow`lv mdn we~ld~om` ildljo~v ~e ~cl
eyhmdo{m~oedv bovvoed$
M }|ofa ylzolx vcexv |v ~cm~ vmjl~ ov nljodln
mv mfflw~mi`l yovav ~cm~ ldmi`l md eyhmdo{m~oed
~e v|fflln od o~v bovvoed$ O~ |vln ~e il vmon ~cm~
vmjl~ m`xmv fmbl joyv~, i|~ ~cov onlm cmv illd
benojoln ~e ylfehdo{l ~cm~ m febwmdv bovvoed,
o~v |`~obm~l i|vodlvv hem`, b|v~ il ~cl wyobmy
jef|v$ ^cl febwmd xe|`n de~ lsov~ oj o~ jmo`ln od
~cm~ bovvoed$
Xclyl nelv ~cm~ `lmzl vmjl~5 Vmjl~ ov, eyvce|`n il, odclyld~ od lzly mvwlf~ ej ~cl ewlym"
~oed$ Xo~ce|~ o~, ~cl bovvoed v|yl` xe|`n jmo` ~e
ylmfc ~cl wlyjeybmdfl `lzl` dllnln jey v|fflvv$
M heen v~m~lbld~ fedflydodh vmjl~ ov, Vmjl~ ov
fyo~ofm` jey , ~e il febw`l~ln od md xm ~cm~
bll~v e|y dllnv$
Wyoey ~e VBV, ~cl vmjl~ bmdmhly ey Vmjl~
j|df~oed xmv ~e~m`` ylvwedvoi`l jey vmjl~ wye"
hymbv$ cl xlyl ~ymodln od m`` mvwlf~v ej ~cl
vmjl~ wyehymb$ Xcld md eyhmdo{m~oed cmn m vmjl~
wyei`lb, ~cl lswlf~m~oed xmv ~cm~ Vmjl~ xe|`n
feyylf~ ~cl vo~|m~oed, i|~ Vmjl~ cmn `o~~`l m|~ceyo~
~e noylf~ fcmdhl ey obw`lbld~ feyylf~ozl mf~oedv$
^cov xmv ~cl vo~|m~oed |d~o` VBV ilfmbl ~cl yl"
}|oyln bl~cene`eh ej vmjl~ bmdmhlbld~$
Md eyhmdo{m~oedv vmjl~ f|`~|yl ov md od~lhym`
wmy~ ej md VBV$ M`~ce|hc VBV ov ~yohhlyln jyeb
~cl ~ew ej md eyhmdo{m~oed, o~ ov blmv|yln m~ ~cl
ie~~eb, xclyl ~cl wyen|f~ozo~ ov blmv|yln, mv
xl``$ Jey ~cm~ f|`~|ym` fedflw~ ~e ylmfc ~cl lbw`e"
llv, o~ b|v~ joyv~ ~ymzl` ~cye|hc bonn`l bmdmhl"
bld~$ ^cl v|fflvv ey jmo`|yl ej m f|`~|yl nlwldnv
ed ~cl v|wwey~ jyeb bonn`l bmdmhlbld~$
M v~yedh VBV xo`` lv~mi`ovc hem`v mdn eiklf"
~ozlv$ ^clvl hem`v mdn eiklf~ozlv vl~ m fe|yvl
~cm~ md eyhmdo{m~oed xmd~v ~e je``ex ~e mfcolzl
bovvoed v|fflvv$ ^clvl hem`v |v|m`` myl lv~mi"
`ovcln i ~ew bmdmhlbld~ mdn obw`lbld~ln i
bonn`l bmdmhlyv$ Oj bonn`l bmdmhlbld~ nelv
de~ mf~ozl` v|wwey~ mdn ov de~ fed~od|m`` mxmyl
ej ~cl v~m~|v ej ~clvl hem`v mdn eiklf~ozlv, ~cl
fcmdfl ej v|fflvv ov yln|fln$
Bonn`l bmdmhlyv dlln ~e il ~ymodln mdn
ln|fm~ln ~cl vmbl mv m`` e~cly lbw`ellv$ ^cl
dlln ~e adex lsmf~` xcm~ VBV ov mdn cex ~cl
odnozon|m`` od~lyjmfl xo~c ~cl wyehymb$ ^clb|v~ il mxmyl ~cm~ ~cl v|fflvv ey jmo`|yl ej VBV
yonlv `myhl` ed cex ~cl |dnlyv~mdn mdn v|w"
wey~ VBV fedflw~v$
Bonn`l bmdmhlyv myl ylvwedvoi`l jey ~cl kei
vmjl~ ~ymododh ej ~cloy wlyveddl` mv xl`` mv m
xeyaw`mfl cm{myn mdm`vov$ ^cl joyv~ `odl bmdmhly
ov ~cl bev~ obwey~md~ odj`|ldfl ed odnozon|m`
vmjl~ ilcmzoey$ Bonn`l bmdmhlyv cmzl ~e |d"
nlyv~mdn ~cl imvov jey m k|v~ f|`~|yl$ ^cl obw`l"
bld~m~oed ej m k|v~ f|`~|yl bm de~ il ~cl vmbl
od m`` wmy~v ej ~cl xey`n, i|~ o~v fedflw~ vce|`n
F
cyovVeyldvldWce~ehymwc
Xcld md
eyhmdo{m~oed cmn
m vml~ wyei`lb,
~cl lswlf~m~oed xmv
~cm~ Vml~ xe|`n
feyylf~ ~cl vo~|m~oed,
i|~ Vml~ cmn
`o~~`l m|~ceyo~$
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
46/68
>>
pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
odVohc~
il |dozlyvm`$ Wlyveddl` vce|`n il mi`l ~e ylwey~
cm{mynv mdn lzld~v xo~ce|~ jlmy ej w|dovcbld~$
Ej fe|yvl, ~clyl myl vebl nljodln lsflw~oedv,
v|fc mv w|ywevl` febbo~~odh o``lhm` mf~ozo~olv ey
zoe`m~odh febwmd ylh|`m~oedv$ M i`mbl f|`~|yl
mdn ewld ylwey~odh f|`~|yl fmdde~ felsov~$ O~ ov|w ~e bonn`l bmdmhlbld~ ~e ewld` v|wwey~ m
v~yedh ylwey~odh vv~lb mdn ldv|yl ~cm~ v|wlyzo"
veyv je``ex ~cl k|v~ we`of ej ylwey~odh$
M feydlyv~edl ej md VBV ov md mf~ozl cm{"
myn onld~ojofm~oed wyehymb$ ^cyll obwey~md~
wyehymbv ~cm~ v|wwey~ ~cl cm{myn onld~ojofm~oed
wyehymb myl fcmdhl wyeflvv bmdmhlbld~ #FWB/,
ewlym~oedm` vmjl~ ylzolxv #EVY/ mdn m wyehymb
~cm~ m``exv wlyveddl` ~e ylwey~ cm{mynv$
M FWB ylzolx vce|`n il mf~ozm~ln xcld
~clyl ov m dlx vv~lb nlvohd, m fcmdhl ~e lsov~odhvv~lbv, m dlx ewlym~oed wyefln|yl mdn%ey m
benojoln ewlym~oed ey wyefln|yl$ ^cl obw`lbld"
~m~oed ej ~cov wyeflvv cmv ~e v~my~ xo~c ~cl bonn`l
bmdmhly od fcmyhl ej ~cl nlwmy~bld~ xclyl ~cl
fcmdhl xo`` eff|y$ Oj ~cm~ wlyved nelv de~ odjeyb
Vmjl~ ej ~cov fcmdhl, ~cld ~cl fcmdhl bmdmhl"
bld~ wyeflvv fmdde~ il obw`lbld~ln$
Md EVY od md eyhmdo{m~oed ov ~cl nojjlyldfl
il~xlld il`olzodh ~cm~ e| myl vmjl mdn adexodh
~cm~ e| myl vmjl$ ^cl ylzolx m``exv e| ~e `eea
m~ m`` ej e|y ewlym~oedv ~e nl~lybodl oj `m~ld~
yova fedno~oedv cmzl ilfebl wmy~ ej e|y ewlym"
~oedv$ Xco`l ~cov ov nedl m~ ~cl bonn`l bmdmhl"
bld~ `lzl`, o~ vce|`n il m jeybm` yova mvvlvvbld~
~cm~ i`mdal~v ~cl xce`l ewlym~oed$ O~ ov ed`
~cye|hc ~clvl ylzolxv ~cm~ bonn`l bmdmhlyv fmd
cmzl md ln|fm~ln adex`lnhl ej ~cl yova we~ld"
~om` ej ~cloy ewlym~oed$
Bonn`l bmdmhlbld~ vce|`n il cohc`
v|wwey~ozl ej ~clvl ewlym~oedm` ylzolxv mdn
xl`febl ~cl jodnodhv mv m xm ~e obwyezl ~cloy
ewlym~oedv mdn de~ fedvonly o~ ~e il m wyeflvv
~cm~ xo`` dlhm~ozl` ylj`lf~ ed ~cloy `lmnlyvcow
vao``v mdn bmdmhlbld~ fmwmio`o~olv$
Jodm``, lbw`ellv vce|`n cmzl m bl~cen ~e
ylwey~ cm{mynv ~cm~ ~cl eivlyzl od ~cl ewlym"
~oed$ ^cl vce|`n il jyll ~e ylwey~ xo~ce|~
jlmy ej ylwyovm`$ ^cl vmjl~ ejjofl vce|`n ~mal
m`` ylwey~v zly vlyoe|v` mdn lzm`|m~l fo~ln
cm{mynv od m ~obl` bmddly$ Bonn`l bmdmhlyv
ej~ld novfe|ymhl ~clvl ylwey~v$ ^cld, mj~ly md
odfonld~, odzlv~ohm~eyv jodn ~cm~ ~cl eyhmdo{m~oed
xmv mxmyl ej m cm{myn ~cm~ `ln ~e ~cl bovcmw i|~
~cm~ odv~o~|~oedm` blfcmdovbv jmo`ln ~e feyylf~
o~ ey m~ `lmv~ ylwey~ o~ ve ~cm~ o~ fe|`n il josln$
^clvl ylwey~v m``ex lbw`ellv ~e wmy~ofowm~lnoylf~` od ~cl VBV mdn il wmy~ ej ~cl wylzld"
~oed wyeflvv$ O~ ov m wevo~ozl be~ozm~ey$
^cl VMH w`mv m zo~m` ye`l od md VBV$ ^cl
hye|w ov bmnl |w ej bmdmhlyv xce xo`` ylzolx
~cl nm~m ~cm~ cmv illd wyezonln i ~cl vmjl~
ejjofl$ ^cl xo`` `eea m~ m|no~v, bovcmw odzlv~ohm"
~oedv, cm{myn ylwey~v, hem`v mdn eiklf~ozlv, j|~|yl
mf~ozo~olv mdn e~cly mylmv ej fedflyd$ O~ ov ~cloy n|~
~e ylzolx ~cl nm~m mdn bmal ylfebbldnm~oedv
~e vldoey bmdmhlbld~$ Mde~cly ylmved jey ~cl
obwey~mdfl ej ~cl VMH ov ~cl wevvoi`l yln|f~oed ejnoylf~ febb|dofm~oed il~xlld ~cl vmjl~ bmdmhly
mdn ~cl mffe|d~mi`l lslf|~ozl$ Wmymhymwc 3$:$< ej
~cl OFME Vmjl~ Bmdmhlbld~ Bmd|m` #VBB/,
Nef|bld~ ?3
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
47/68
ned~ y|d ejj
Y|dxm lsf|yvoedv myl jmy beyl febbed ~cmd odf|yvoedv mdn ylv|`~ od
beyl jm~m`o~olv$ Ylfehdo{odh ~cl ~cylm~, J`ohc~ Vmjl~ Je|dnm~oed mdn ~cl
Od~lydm~oedm` Moy ymdvwey~ Mvvefom~oed cmzl wyen|fln ~cl Y|dxm Lsf|yvoed
Yova Yln|f~oed ^ee`ao~, m FN imvln ed dlmy` ~xe lmyv ej xeya i ~cl
Je|dnm~oedv Y|dxm Vmjl~ Odo~om~ozl ~lmb$
Jey ~cl `m~lv~ mdn ilv~ odjeybm~oed ed fm|vlv mdn bev~ obwey~md~
blmdv ej wylzld~oed ej y|dxm lsf|yvoedv, ~cov ov ~cl ve|yfl$
jvj blbily |v.>9pded"blbily |v.:7
Y|dxm Lsf|yvoedYova Yln|f~oed ee`ao~
Eynly ed"`odl m~xxx$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyhey fed~mf~ Dmbym~cm Mwwmyme, ~l`$; != 876$86?$:877, ls~$=7=1 l"bmo`; mwwmyme Gjohc~vml~$eyh$
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
48/68
>: pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
NM~M`oda
X
ey`nxonl, ~cl oal`oceen
e m kl~ ey `myhl ~|yiewyew
ezlyy|ddodh ~cl y|dxm
ed `mdnodh xmv mie|~ vlzld~oblv hylm~ly xcld ~cl y|dxm xmv
xl~ ym~cly ~cmd ny, imvln ed mffonld~v
n|yodh ~cl wlyoen =??79778$ cl yova
e md ezlyy|d mffonld~ xcld `mdnodh
ed m hyeezln xl~ y|dxm xmv vohdoo"
fmd~` exly ~cmd ~cm~$
cevl myl mbedh ~cl odnodhv e m
v~|n wlyeybln i m fedv|`~odh oyb ey
ymdvwey~ Fmdmnm$= cl v~|n, nlvohdln
~e mvvlvv ~cl fev~v mdn ildlo~v e ylh|`m"
~ey ew~oedv ~e fcmdhl wyefln|ylv ey
`mdnodh ed xl~ y|dxmv, ylv|`~ln od m
ylwey~ ~cm~ fedvonlyln ~cl wyei`lb e
~clvl `mdnodhv yeb bmd mvwlf~v$9
Nlhymnln moyfym~ wlyeybmdfl
ed xl~ y|dxmv cmv mffe|d~ln ey ~cl
bmkeyo~ e moyfym~ mffonld~ ezlyy|dv ed
`mdnodh, ~cl ylwey~ vmv$ Ylfld~ fm~m"
v~yewcof mffonld~v od Ve Wm|`e, Iym{o`,
mdn eyed~e, Ed~myoe, cmzl cohc`ohc~ln
~cl fedflydv e `mdnodh ed xl~ y|dxmv$6
Imvln ed m nl~mo`ln lsmbodm~oed e
xl~ y|dxm `mdnodh ezlyy|d eff|yyldfl
ylwey~v mdn v~|nolv, moyfym~ ~lv~ nm~m mdn
mdm`vov e `mdnodh wlyeybmdfl ed xl~
y|dxmv, m febw|~ly benl` xmv fylm~ln
ey lv~obm~odh ~cl nov~yoi|~oed e yl"
}|oyln `mdnodh nov~mdflv |dnly vwlfoof
fedno~oedv$ cov benl` xmv |vln ~e
lv~obm~l ~cl yovav mdn ildlo~"fev~v ey m
ymdhl e moyfym~ |dnly zmyoe|v fedno"
~oedv ~e wyezonl md |dnlyv~mdnodh e ~cl
yovav mdn ~cl `oal` ezlym`` ildlo~"fev~v
e ~cl m`~lydm~l ylh|`m~ey ew~oedv fed"vonlyln, ~cl ylwey~ vmv$
cl mffonld~ mdn odfonld~ mdm`vov
mdn febw|~ly benl` vcexln ~cm~ ~cl
yovav e ezlyy|d mffonld~v myl b|fc
`exly od fe|d~yolv ey ylhoedv xclyl y|d"
xmv myl hyeezln$ cevl xo~c hyeezln
y|dxmv m~ bmkey moywey~v odf`|nl
M|v~ym`om, b|fc e L|yewl, Cedh Aedh,
Kmwmd, Bm`mvom, ~cl \do~ln Aodhneb,
~cl \do~ln V~m~lv mdn e~cly fe|d~yolv$
Fmdmnm ov md lsflw~oed1 m`bev~ dedl e
o~v y|dxmv myl hyeezln, ~cl ylwey~ vmv$
cl ym~oe e ~cl yova e md ezlyy|d
mffonld~ ed m xl~ y|dxm febwmyln ~e
~cl yovav ed m ny y|dxm xmv lv~obm~ln
~e il mwwyesobm~l` =7 ed |d"hyeezln%
ded"WJF #weye|v yof~oed fe|yvl/ y|d"
xmv mdn 9$< ed hyeezln%WJF y|dxmv,
~cl ylwey~ vmv$ Hyeezln ey WJF y|dxm
yln|fln ~cl yovav e md mffonld~ ed m xl~
y|dxm i mwwyesobm~l` 8< wlyfld~$
M ylzolx e `mdnodh ezlyy|dv od
Fmdmnm yeb =?3? ~cye|hc Bmyfc 9778
onld~ooln 98 odze`zodh kl~v mdn == odze`z"
odh ~|yiewyewv$ E ~cl 98 kl~ ezlyy|dv,
~cl y|dxm xmv xl~ ey =7, ey 68 wlyfld~,
mdn fed~mbodm~ln ey =>, ey
M`bev~ cm` e ~cl kl~ ezlyy|dv odze`zln
`myhl wmvvldhly"fmyyodh moyfym~ od vfcln"
|`ln ey bmkey fcmy~ly fmyyoly vlyzofl$ cl
ylbmododh mwwyesobm~l` 7
#MVX, 9%73, w$ >7/$ Fedvonlyodh ie~c
~cl kl~ mdn ~|yiewyew ezlyy|dv, od bev~
fmvlv xclyl ~cl moyfym~ xmv nmbmhln
ey nlv~yeln, ~cl moyfym~ v~y|fa md
eiklf~ ey xld~ nexd m v`ewl ey ymzodl,
~cl ylwey~ vmv$ Od ed` m lx fmvlv xmv
~cl moyfym~ nmbmhln xclyl ~cl ezlyy|d
mylm xmv `m~ mdn yll e eiklf~v, |v|m``
~cl devl xcll` iylmaodh e$
Ezlyy|d nov~mdflv ~cl nov~mdfl
~ymzl`ln wmv~ ~cl ldn e ~cl y|dxm
zmyoln yeb =7 ~e =,
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
49/68
@mdnodh Ezlyy|d Nov~mdflv, Fmdmnomd Kl~v, =?3?Bmyfc 9778
7,
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
50/68
>3 pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
NM~M`oda
~cyll ezlym``, i|~ ~cl zmyom~oed il~xlld fe|d~yolv
ov beyl wyede|dfln, ~cl ylwey~ vmv$ cl ym~l
ey Fmdmnm odfylmvlv vos"e`n, ey ~cl ylv~ e ~cl
xey`n o~ odfylmvlv e|y"e`n, xco`l ~cl \$V$ ym~l
ed` ne|i`lv$ cl Fmdmnomd ym~l ov lohc~ ~oblv
~cl \$V$ ym~l, mdn ~cl ym~l ey ~cl ylv~ e ~cl xey`n
ov ~cyll ~oblv ~cm~ e ~cl \$V$ cl Fmdmnomd
ym~l ov imvln ed m zly vbm`` d|bily e mffonld~v,
~cyll, i|~ ov v~m~ov~ofm`` vohdoofmd~` cohcly
~cmd ~cl \$V$ ym~l m~ ~cl 7$7= vohdoofmdfl `lzl` Qm
wyeimio`o~ e edl od =77 ~cm~ ~cl ylv|`~ ov n|l ~e
fcmdflR mdn ~cl cohc ym~l ov fedvov~ld~ xo~c ~cl
odfylmvln yovav mvvefom~ln xo~c |d"hyeezln y|d"
xmv$ cl ym~l ey ~cl ylv~ e ~cl xey`n ov imvln
ed bmd beyl mffonld~v mdn ~cl cohc ym~l ov m`ve
fedvov~ld~ xo~c m vohdoofmd~ wyewey~oed e ~cl
`mdnodhv ilodh ed |d"hyeezln y|dxmv$
Md mdm`vov e y|dxm fedno~oedv m~ ozl
bmkey Fmdmnomd moywey~v n|yodh Dezlbily
~cye|hc Bmyfc
nl~lybodln ~cm~ ~cl
y|dxmv xlyl xl~
=9$= wlyfld~ e ~cl
~obl$ Mde~cly mdm`vov
e|dn ~cm~ ~cl wly"fld~mhl e bezlbld~v
ed xl~ y|dxmv od
L|yewl zmyoln yeb $7, >$7, 97$7, 8:$7,
Il`ho|b =>666= =?$7, 6$7, =:$7, 3=$7,
Jod`mdn =96:=> 9=$7, $7, 9$7, =9$7, 3:$7,
Hlybmd 3>?976 96$7, $7,
Vxlnld 98
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
51/68
Xl~ zv$ Ny @mdnodh Nov~mdfl
Xo~c Ylzlyvl cy|v~ jey Vl`lf~ln Moyfymj~ wlv
FYK
IM
=>:
IM
=>:
NF?
NF?
I8:8"
977
I8:8"
977
I8:8"
677
I8:8"
677
I888"
977LY
M6>7"
6=6
M6>7"
6=6
FYK
I8>8"
>77
=$7
=$=
=$9
=$6
=$>
=$
=$77 ey de, wmy~om`
mdn |`` |vl e ylzlyvl ~cy|v~ xcld `mdnodh ed m
xl~ y|dxm myl =$=:, =$9: mdn =$>= ylvwlf~ozl`$
cl ylwey~ vmv, Xo~c |`` ylzlyvl Q~cy|v~R, ~cl
`mdnodh nov~mdfl ym~oe ov f`evl ~e ~cl =< wlyfld~
xl~ y|dxm novwm~fc mnk|v~bld~ mf~ey, i|~ ~cl
`mdnodh nov~mdfl odfylmvlv i 9=$: wlyfld~
xcld ylzlyvl ~cy|v~ ov de~ |vln$
M ymdvwey~ Fmdmnm mdnodh wlyeybmdfl
v~|n benl`ln ~cl llf~ e ylzlyvl ~cy|v~ ey
vlzlym` moyfym~ mdn y|dxm ~wlv$ cl mzlymhl
llf~ e de~ |vodh ylzlyvl ~cy|v~ ed xl~ y|dxm
`mdnodh nov~mdfl xmv mv e``exv;
Fm~lheyI%F#|d"hyeezln/y|dxm,=7$
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
52/68
Wyeimi`l @mdnodh Nov~mdflv jey m FYK ed m Xl~ ?
>,8,???
/$ Xo~c de ey `ohc~ ymodm``,
~cl fcmdfl e md ezlyy|d xmv e|dn
~e il zly `ex$ Od benlym~l ymodm``,
~cl `mdnodh nov~mdfl odfylmvln, i|~ ~cl
ennv e md ezlyy|d xlyl v~o`` `ex$
\vodh ~cl yova benl`, ~cl ylwey~
fedvonlyv ~cyll wyewevln ylh|`m~ey
m`~lydm~ozlv ey md odfylmvln novwm~fc
mf~ey ey `mdnodh ed xl~ y|dxmv$ F|y"
yld~`, ~cl ed` mnno~oedm` yl}|oylbld~
yl`m~ln ~e mdnodh ed xl~ y|dxmv ov
~cm~ m~ ~cl ~obl e novwm~fc, ~cl mdnodh
ol`n ldh~c yl}|oyln b|v~ il odfylmvln
i =< wlyfld~, ~cl ylwey~ vmv$ cov
ylv|`~v od m mf~ey xcofc b|v~ il mww`oln
~e ~cl MJB mdnodh nov~mdfl e =$?9 ey
~|yiekl~ moyfym~ mdn =$:> ey ~|yiewyew
moyfym~$
cl wyewevln m`~lydm~ozlv myl;
ewod =$ Odfmvn Novwmfc jmfv mdn D
ld y| y}|obd
cl xl~ y|dxm mdnodh novwm~fc
mf~ey xe|`n il vl~ mv e``exv;
Kl~xo~ce|~ylzlyvl~cy|v~;9$77
#hyeezln ey WJF y|dxmv/, e~cly"
xovl 9$>
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
53/68
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MlyeVMjl~Xey`n p jliy|my 97=7
NM~M`oda
^clnovwm~fcjmf~eyej9$>$ ymdvwey~ Fmdmnm nljdlv m xl~ y|dxm mv
m v|ymfl fedno~oed xclyl ~clyl ov m ~cod
`mly e xm~ly mdn ~cl mly e xm~ly ov 6
bb #7$== od/ ey `lvv od nlw~c$ M fed~mbo"
dm~ln y|dxm blmdv m y|dxm ~cm~ cmv
md wey~oed e o~v v|ymfl fezlyln i m
fed~mbodmd~, odf`|nodh v~mdnodh xm~ly,
v`|vc, vdex, febwmf~ln vdex, ofl ey yev~,
ey vmdn mdn ofl fed~ye` fclbofm`v$
6 #= ! 7$>6/$
:$ ^l xl~%ny`mdnodhnov~mdfl ym~oe ov
b|fc f`evly ~e = ~cmd ~cl xl~%nyv~ewwodh
nov~mdfl, ilfm|vl ~cl eybly odf`|nlv ~cl
wlyoen yeb xcld ~cl moyw`mdl ov
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
54/68
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
55/68
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MLYEVMjL~yXey`n p jliy|my 97=7
OdjEvfmd
cmn lblyhln od j|`` jeyfl n|yodh ~cl h`onl ~e ~cl
C|nved, n|yodh xcofc V|``ldilyhly cmn y|~c"
`lvv` vcln nov~ymf~oedv, odf`|nodh cov exd jlmy
ej nlm~c$ Cl cmn wmyln nexd cov ~mva ~e bmaodh
~cl yohc~ nlfovoed mie|~ xclyl ~e `mdn, mdn cmn
je``exln ~cye|hc xo~c m cohc"v~malv j`odh kei$Cov wlyjeybmdfl xmv m xeya ej ls~ymeynodmy
fedfld~ym~oed, xcofc ~cl w|i`of bovylmn mv
fee`dlvv |dnly joyl$ Vebl ve`nolyv xo`` ylfehdo{l
~cl nov~odf~oed$
V|``ldilyhly xmv xo``odh, je``exodh ~cl mf"
fonld~, ~e mfflw~ m`` aodnv ej mxmynv, wyozo`lhlv
mdn ejjlyv, odf`|nodh edl jey cov m|~eioehymwc,
xcofc cmv vodfl illd w|i`ovcln$ I|~ o~ xmv de~
lhe~ovb ~cm~ wyebw~ln cob, @mdhlxolvfcl
il`olzlv$
Mj~ly nlfmnlv ej ldn|yodh ~cl odv|`~v ej mdmoy`odl fmylly ~cl imday|w~folv, ~cl f|~imfav,
~cl |doed v~yojl, m >7 wlyfld~ yln|f~oed od vm`my,
~cl nlv~y|f~oed ej cov yl~oylbld~ wldvoed cl
xmv nl~lybodln ~e `lzlymhl ~cov |dlswlf~ln
ewwey~|do~ ~e bmsob|b mnzmd~mhl, ~cl ieea
vmv$ Cl xmv n|l ~e yl~oyl od vlzld lmyv, m~ mhl
:
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
56/68
pj`ohc~ vmjl~ je|dnm~oed p MLYEVMjL~yXey`n p jliy|my 97=7
OdjEvfmd
bohym~oed, ilfmbl j|``"~obl ylvonld~ wew|`m"
~oedv ldnexln, cexlzly, xo~c ~cl |yhl mdn
mio`o~ ~e j`$
Wylvld~`, ~cmdav ~e imddodh ej wlv~ofonlv
cmybj|` ~e ioynv, ldzoyedbld~m` wye~lf~oed mxv
mdn ~cl fedzlyvoed ej jeybly jmyb`mdnv, ~cldlx` ded"bohym~ey homd~ Fmdmnm hllvl vl~~`ln
febjey~mi od~e m wmymnovl xo~c jlx wylnm~eyv,
xclyl c|d~odh xmv jyexdln |wed, xclyl jeen
xmv mi|dnmd~ mdn xclyl ~clyl xlyl w`ld~ ej
he`j fe|yvlv, feyweym~l `mxdv mdn wylvlyzln xl~"
`mdnv ~e nebodm~l$ @mdhlxolvfcl vmv ~cloy \$V$
wew|`m~oed hylx jyeb mie|~ 977,777 od =?87 ~e
> bo``oed ~enm$
^cl nlvfyow~oed ej ~cl mffonld~ xcofc ov
od~lyy|w~ln i fcmw~lyv mie|~ o~v fm|vm` jmf"
~eyv ejjlyv jlx v|ywyovlv i|~ ov ~ceye|hc mdnnl~mo`ln$ Xl lmyd, jey lsmbw`l, ~cm~ V|``ldilyh"
ly xmv fmyyodh od cov j`ohc~ imh m `oiymy ieea,
K|v~ F|`~|yl; Im`mdfodh Vmjl~ mdn Mffe|d~mio`o~
#MVX, >%73, w$
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
57/68
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MLYEVMjL~yXey`n p jliy|my 97=7
OdjEvfmd
bod|v =$7 h, ~cl wmvvldhlyv fe|`n xm`a mye|dn
ed ~cl fmiod flo`odh, |wvonl nexd od yl`m~oed
~e ~cl lmy~c, i|~ jll`odh deybm`$ ^cov bohc~ il
mb|vodh ~e ~clb oj ~cl xlyl od ~cl yohc~ jymbl
ej bodn$
@mdhlxolvfcl adexv, ej fe|yvl, ~cm~ moy`odlwo`e~v j`odh md bmd|jmf~|ylyv wyen|f~ myl
lswlf~ln ~e il j|`` mxmyl ej ~cl vmjl `obo~v
~e fed~ye` odw|~v, mdn ~cm~ ~cl cmzl fefawo~
novw`mv mdn xmydodh vv~lbv ~e m`ly~ ~clb ~e
mdebm`olv$ Cov bmod myh|bld~ jey ~cl Moyi|v
fed~ye` fedflw~ ov ~cm~ lzld }|m`ojoln, zly
lswlyoldfln wo`e~v fmd evl vo~|m~oedm` mxmyl"
dlvv ymyl`, i|~ o~ cmwwldv, wmy~of|`my` od
lblyhldfolv$
e o``|v~ym~l cov ~clvov, cl odf`|nlv md mf"
fe|d~ ej ~cl Mblyofmd Moy`odlv Ielodh 897=7 |vodh febiodm~oedv ej
mdobm~ln j`ohc~ wm~cv, zonlev, ~ymdvfyow~oedv ej
moy ~ymjjof fed~ye` febb|dofm~oedv mdn fefawo~
zeofl ylfeynlyv #FZYv/, dmyym~ey zeofl"ezlyv,
wce~ehymwcv mdn beyl$
Jey lsmbw`l, ~cl mv~ ~xe bod|~lv ej ~cl
Fe`hmd Moy J`ohc~ 6>78 fymvc n|yodh mwwyemfc ~e
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
58/68
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
59/68
XXX$j`ohc~vmjl~$eyh p MLYEVMjL~yXey`n p jliy|my 97=7
edYLFEYn
^cl je``exodh odjeybm~oed wyezonlv md mxmyl"
dlvv ej wyei`lbv od ~cl cewl ~cm~ ~cl fmd il
mzeonln od ~cl j|~|yl$ ^cl odjeybm~oed ov imvln
ed jodm` ylwey~v i ejjofom` odzlv~ohm~ozl m|~ceyo"~olv ed moyfymj~ mffonld~v mdn odfonld~v$
KL^ V
He"Me| Fe|fl ~ee @ex
i mw =>:"677$ n$ vs $
`mfa ej adex`lnhl mie|~ ~cl `efm` ~lyymod, m
he"mye|dn fedn|f~ln fed~ymy ~e febwmd
v~mdnmyn ewlym~odh wyefln|ylv #VEWv/ mdn
odm~~ld~oed ~e beyl ~cmd m ne{ld ldcmdfln
hye|dn"wyesobo~ xmydodh vv~lb #LHWXV/
xmydodhv xco`l foyf`odh ~e `mdn vl~ ~cl v~mhl jey
m fe``ovoed xo~c m co`` dlmy Xmbldm Moywey~ od
Wmw|m, mffeynodh ~e ~cl Dm~oedm` ^ymdvwey~m~oed
Vmjl~ Febbo~~ll #D^VF/ ej Odnedlvom$
^cl mffonld~ eff|yyln ~cl beydodh ej Mwyo`
?, 977?, n|yodh m vfcln|`ln wmvvldhly mdn fmyhe
j`ohc~ jyeb Vld~mdo xo~c ~xe wo`e~v, ~xe j`ohc~
m~~ldnmd~v, md ldhodlly mdn m emnbmv~ly$ De
wmvvldhlyv xlyl miemyn ~cl IMl =>:$
^cl wo`e~"od"febbmdn #WOF/, :, ~cl D^VF ylwey~ vmon$
Xmbldm Moywey~, xcofc ov m~ 67 j~ od
be|d~mode|v ~lyymod, cmn de odv~y|bld~ mw"
wyemfc wyefln|yl$ M ye|~odl xlm~cly ylwey~
ovv|ln mie|~ 67 bod|~lv iljeyl ~cl mffonld~
odnofm~ln ~cm~ v|yjmfl xodnv xlyl fm`b, zovoio`"
o~ xmv 3 ab #< bo/ od cm{l, mdn ~cl imvl ej m
iyeald flo`odh xmv m~ 677 b #?3> j~/$^cl wo`e~v fedn|f~ln m zov|m` mwwyemfc ~e
Y|dxm =
-
8/9/2019 Asw_feb10 Roll Back on Final Ice Blockage and Gravity Waves
60/68
7 nlhyllv, mdn ~cl moyfymj~ wo~fcln =7 nlhyllv
devl"nexd$ ^cl LHWXV hldlym~ln m NED^
VODA xmydodh, mdn ~cl fewo`e~ ylwlm~ln ~cl
xmydodh$
^cl WOF ylw`oln, _m, m$
^cl ylwey~ vmon ~cm~ ~cyll vlfednv `m~l