association of environmental professionals (aep) beyond ... · march 16, 2015 comments on the draft...

Beyond 2020: The Challenge of Greenhouse Gas

Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California

March 16, 2015

Comments on the Draft Whitepaper will be accepted through May 23, 2015. Comments

can be email to: [email protected]

Association of Environmental Professionals (AEP)

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Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California

March 2015

AEP White Paper 1

Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas 2

Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California 3

(V7,03/18/15)4

PreparedbymembersoftheAEPClimateChangeCommittee.TheAEPClimateChangeCommittee5consistsofleadersofclimateactionplanningpracticesfromconsultingfirmsthathaveleadmanyofthe6localgreenhousegasreductionplanningeffortsacrossCalifornia.TheCommitteefocusesonadvancing7theprofessionalpracticeoflocalclimateactionplanningthroughperiodicpublicationofwhitepapers8andconferencepresentations,aswellasinteractionwithstate,regionalandlocalagencies.9

AEPWhitePaperManagement10MichaelHendrix,ProjectDirector11NicoleVermilion,ProjectManager12

LeadAuthor13RichWalter(ICFInternational)14

ContributingAuthors15NicoleVermilion(PlaceWorks)16DaveMitchell(FirstCarbonSolutions)17CherylLaskowski,Ph.D.(Atkins)18ChrisGrey(Fehr&Peers)19

Technical Reviewer 20TerryRivasplata(ICFInternational)21

Editor22SusanScharf23

AEPClimateChangeCommittee24MichaelHendrix,Chair25ChrisGray26CherylLaskowski,Ph.D.27DaveMitchell28TammySeale29NicoleVermilion30RichWalter31

AEPExecutiveBoard32GeneTalmadge(President)33DevonMuto(ExecutiveVicePresident)34ChristinaRyan(AdministrativeVicePresident)35LynnCalvert‐Hayes(FinancialVicePresidentandCFO)36

Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethepersonalopinionsoftheauthorsanddonotrepresentthe37opinionsorjudgmentoftheirrespectivefirmsorofAEP.3839

Association of Environmental Professionals Climate Change Committee White Paper


March 2015

Table of Contents 1

2

ExecutiveSummary....................................................................................................................................................................13I.Introduction...............................................................................................................................................................................74

ProblemDefinition.............................................................................................................................................................75Progressvs.Perfection.....................................................................................................................................................96BeCarefulWhatYouWishFor:TheLimitationsandPerilsofCEQA...........................................................97SlowandSteadyWinstheRace.................................................................................................................................108

II.ClimateScienceBackground..........................................................................................................................................119III.RegulatorySetting.............................................................................................................................................................1210

Legislation,RegulationandOtherGuidelines.....................................................................................................1211RecentSanDiegoCEQACourtRulings....................................................................................................................1712

IV.The2050ReductionChallenge....................................................................................................................................20132050Scenarios..................................................................................................................................................................2014LocalClimateActionPlanningExamplesbeyond2020..................................................................................2915ExamplesfromOutsideCalifornia............................................................................................................................3216

V.CEQA,GeneralPlans,andClimateActionPlansforthePost‐2020Horizon..............................................3517CEQAProjectAnalysisinaPost‐2020World......................................................................................................3518GeneralPlansinaPost‐2020World........................................................................................................................3919ClimateActionPlansinaPost‐2020World..........................................................................................................4020

VI.Recommendations.............................................................................................................................................................5221TheRoleofCEQAinaPost‐2020World................................................................................................................5222TheRoleofGeneralPlansinaPost‐2020World...............................................................................................5423TheRoleofClimateActionPlansinaPost‐2020World.................................................................................5624

VII.References...........................................................................................................................................................................592526



Page 1 March 2015

Executive Summary 1

Rich Walter, ICF International 2

The Post‐2020 Challenge for Climate Action Planning in California 3

Localgreenhousegas(GHG)reductionplanningbyCalifornia’scitiesandcountieshasbeen4primarilyfocusedonadoptinglocalmeasuresthataresupportiveofreachingtheGHGreduction5targetestablishedinTheGlobalWarmingSolutionsActof2006(AssemblyBill(AB)32),whichcalls6forreducingemissionsto1990levelsbytheyear2020.Similarly,GHGanalysisandmitigationfor7discretionaryprojectsreviewedundertheCaliforniaEnvironmentalQualityAct(CEQA)hasbeen8conductedundertherubricofthresholdsthatarebasedonconsistencywiththeAB32reduction9targetfor2020.10

AB32isonlyastartforGHGreductionplanninggiventhatthelong‐termglobalimperativetolimit11themoreextremeeffectsofglobalwarmingonclimatechangewillrequiremuchmoresubstantial12reductionsthanrequiredbyAB32.Somenationalgovernmentshaveidentifiedalong‐termgoalto13reducetheir2050emissionstoalevel80percentbelow1990levels.Thisgoalisreflectedin14GovernorSchwarzenegger’sExecutiveOrder(EO)S‐03‐05,althoughnotthroughlegislationtodate.15As2020approaches,Californialegislativeattentionisstartingtoturntothepost‐2020period.In16addition,legalchallengesbroughtunderCEQAtotheSanDiegoAssociationofGovernments17(SANDAG)RegionalTransportationPlan/SustainableCommunitiesStrategy(RTP/SCS)andtheSan18DiegoCountyClimateActionPlan(CAP)1havesuccessfullyraisedconsistencywiththeEOS‐03‐05192050goalasanissueforCEQAreview.20

In2008,theCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard(ARB)adoptedaScopingPlanthatdetailedthemain21strategiesCaliforniawouldusetoachievetheAB322020target,andfromwhichlocaljurisdictions22couldidentifytheirroleinemissionsreductionthrough2020.However,therearenotrueGHG23reductionplansanywhereintheworldthathaveadoptedenforceablemeasurestomeetthe24ambitious2050targets.Thus,ifcitiesandcountiesinCaliforniaintendtoprepareGHGreduction25plansandconductCEQAanalysisofprojectswithemissionsthatgobeyond2020outto2050,they26willfacesubstantialchallengeswithlong‐termemissionsforecasting,regulatoryuncertainty,27reductiontargetdetermination,fair‐sharemitigationdetermination,andfeasibility.28

BasedonresearchintopathwaystodeepGHGemissionsreductionsby2050,thechangesneeded29statewidearesubstantialandsevereandwouldrequirefundamentalchangesinCalifornia'senergy30system,manyofwhichareoutsidethejurisdictionofindividualcitiesandcounties.Scenario31analysisandacasestudypresentedinthispaperhighlighthowachievingdeepGHGemission32reductionswithinCaliforniawillrequireacoordinatedeffortacrossallsectorsoftheeconomy.In33nearlyallthedeepreductionscenarios,therateoftransition—suchasdeploymentofbetter34vehicles,orrenewableelectricity—farexceedsthehistoricalrateofchangeinCalifornia(State)to35date.Thisaddsameasureofuncertaintyforlocaljurisdictionsseekingtounderstandtheirrolein36GHGreductionswithinacontextofshiftingtechnologies,energy/technologyprices,andregulations.37

1“ClimateActionPlan”or“CAP”isatermofartcommonlyusedtorefertoalocalgreenhousegasreductionplan.SomeCAPsalsoincludeaplanforadaptationtoexpectedclimatechange.Somejurisdictionsuse“GreenhouseGasReductionPlan”instead.Inthiswhitepaperthetermsareusedinterchangeableinrelationtogreenhousegasreductions.



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Giventheseuncertainties—whichincreaseasoneproceedsfrom2020outto2050—localGHG1reductionplanningwillneedtoincludearangeofpotentialscenariostohelpcivicentitiesbetter2understandthevaryingroleoflocalGHGreductionscomparedtoGHGreductionsfromStateand3federalpolicy.4

The Role of CEQA 5

TheCEQAGuidelinesoffertwopathstoevaluatingGHGemissionsimpactsinCEQAdocuments:6

Projectscantieroffa“qualified”GHGReductionPlanthatestablishesthresholdsof7significance(CEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5)8

ProjectscandeterminesignificancebyutilizingamodeltocalculateGHGemissionsandassess9theirsignificance(CEQAGuidelinesSection15064.4)10

ThereductiontargetembodiedinAB32for2020isthemostcommonthreadamongthe11significancethresholdsdevelopedtodate.AB32andARB’s2008AB32ScopingPlanprovidea12state‐levelplanforachievingthestatewideGHGemissionstargetfor2020.Theproject‐levelCEQA13significancethresholdutilizedbyleadagencieswillneedtobeupdatedtoaddresspost‐202014targets.ThelogicaltimingforupdatingthresholdswillbewhentheStateadoptsitsfirstpost‐202015legislatedreductiontarget,andwhenARBhasdevelopedastatewideplantoachievetheadopted16target.17

ThispapermakesthefollowingrecommendationsconcerningCEQA:18

LimitCEQAGHGAnalysistotheStateGHGPlanningHorizonbasedonaState19LegislativelyMandatedTarget.Thispaperpresentssubstantialevidencefortheinfeasibility20foralocaljurisdictiontomeetthe80percentbelow1990levelsby2050inthenear‐to‐21mediumtermabsentarealpost‐2020Stateplanofaction.Thus,requiringcompliancewith22the2050goalinEOS‐03‐05asadefactosignificancethresholdinCEQAdocumentsis23impractical.Nothingisservedbyestablishinganimpossiblethresholdoranalyzingimpactsso24farinthefuturethattheyrequiresubstantialspeculation.Instead,thelimitofGHGanalysisfor25CEQAdocumentsshouldbethecurrentStateGHGplanninghorizon.Atpresent,theonlytrue26StatereductionplanistheAB32ScopingPlan,whichonlyhasaverifiedandquantified27reductionplanto2020.OncetheStatehasadefinedplanfor2030,thenCEQAanalysisand28thresholdsshouldshiftfromthecurrent2020horizontothe2030horizon.Whenapost‐203029planisineffect,thehorizonshouldshiftagain.30

Establish"SubstantialProgress"astheCEQAsignificancecriteria.Allthethresholdsused31inCEQAdocumentsinCaliforniaandallqualifiedGHGreductionplansusedforCEQAtiering32arebasedonmeetingorexceedingthereductiontargetsinAB32requiringoverallState33reductionsto1990levelsby2020.TherearenolocalGHGreductionplansthathaveanactual34plantomeeta2050targetof80percentbelow1990levels.Thispaperrecommendsthat35AppendixGoftheCEQAGuidelinesbeamendedtoprovidethefollowingnewCEQA36significancethresholdforGHGemissions:37

“Doestheprojectimpedesubstantialprogressinlocal,regional,andStateGHGemissions38reductionsovertimetowardlong‐termGHGreductiontargetsadoptedbytheState39Legislature?”40

AllowCEQATieringfromGHGReductionPlansthatmake“SubstantialProgress”in41ReducingGHGEmissions.Therecent(2014)SanDiegocourtrulingshavethepotentialto42



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deterlocaljurisdictionsfrompreparingandimplementingGHGreductionplansbecause,1effectively,therulingstookawaythe“carrot”forCEQAstreamlining,andcreatedtoomuch2uncertainty.TopromoteCEQAstreamliningandencouragelocalagenciestoprepareGHG3reductionplansforcommunitywideGHGemissions,legislationshouldrequirethatCEQA4GuidelinesSection15183.5beamendedtoallowfortieringoffGHGReductionPlansthat5make“substantialprogress”towardreducingGHGemissionsonapathtowardlong‐term6reductiontargets,withoutrequiringsuchplanstomeeta2050reductiontarget.Thisconcept7isnotnewandissimilartothelanguagereferringtotieringoffinfilldevelopmentsusing8developmentstandardsthat“substantiallymitigate”impactsaddedtotheCEQAGuidelines9underSenateBill226(SB226).10

AllowPartialCEQAExemptionforCAPs.ThereisnoexemptionorstreamliningforClimate11ActionPlans(CAPs)underCEQA.TheanalysiswithintheCEQAdocumentsassociatedwith12CAPsisusuallyhighlyprogrammaticandnon‐locationspecific,meaningthatthoseCAP13elementswhichdoresultinpotentiallysignificantenvironmentalimpactswouldstillrequirea14project‐levelCEQAdocumentregardlessoftheprogrammaticlevelanalysis.Abetterplanning15approachwouldbetoprovideapartialCEQAexemptionfortheCAPadoption.Thisshouldbe16astatutoryexemptionlimitingthescopeofCEQAcompliancetoaddressingGHGemissions17only,andwouldeliminatetheneedtoanalyzeotherenvironmentalimpactsatthe18programmaticlevel,whilemandatingCEQAevaluationontheproject‐levelelementsfromthe19CAPthatmayhaveenvironmentaleffectsoftheirown.ThiswouldretaintheabilityforCEQA20tieringfromaqualifiedGHGreductionplan,andwouldeliminateanimpedimenttolocalCAP21developmentwhilestillensuringthatprojectlevelsecondaryenvironmentalimpactsarefully22disclosedandmitigated,asrequiredbyCEQAcompliance.23

HowthentoanalyzeGHGemissionsinCEQAdocumentsforthepost‐2020world?Pragmatically,24thiscanbebrokendownintoseveraldifferenteras.Thesuggestedapproacheswoulddependupon25theStateenactingenablinglegislationalongthefollowinglines:26

TheUncertainInterim:FromSanDiegorulings(2014)to“AB32+1”tothe“AB32+1”27ScopingPlan28

Forgeneralplansandmulti‐phaselargeprojectswithpost‐2020phaseddevelopment,CEQA29analysesneedtoconsiderconsistencywiththe2020/AB32basedframework,butalso30analyzetheconsequencesofpost‐2020GHGemissionsintermsoftheirimpactsonthe31reductiontrajectoryfrom2020toward2050.Asignificancedetermination,asarguedinthis32paper,shouldbebasedonconsistencywith“substantialprogress”alongapost‐202033trajectory,butshouldnotbebasedonmeetingthe2050target.34

CEQAanalysisformostlanduseprojectscancontinuetorelyonthecurrentthresholdsand35currentCAPswith2020horizonsfortheimmediatefuture,especiallyifthereisactionby36theStatelegislatureandARBinthenextfewyears.Thecloserwecometo2020without37legislativeandARBactiononthepost‐2020targetsandplanning,themoreCEQAproject38analysiswillneedtoanalyzepost‐2020emissionsconsistentwith“substantialprogress”39alongapost‐2020reductiontrajectorytowardmeetingthe2050target.40

TheNextNormal:With“AB32+1”andan“AB32+1”ScopingPlan41

WhentheLegislatureadoptsapost‐2020targetandARBdevelopsadetailed,specific,and42feasiblescopingplanaddressingtheadoptedtarget,anewframeworkwillbeestablished43



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forCEQAGHGanalysissimilartothatwhichexistsinrelationtoAB32andthe20201reductiontarget.2

CEQAGHGanalyseswillneedtobecompletedusingthresholdsbasedonthenewpost‐20203target.4

CEQAtieringofGHGanalysiswillneedtobeconductedusingCAPsthatareconsistentwith5theadoptedpost‐2020target.6

CEQAGHGanalysisofgeneralplans(andlargemulti‐phasedprojectswithlong‐termfuture7horizons)willneedtoanalyzehorizonsbeyondtheadoptedtargetwhicharesimilartothe8currentconditionsdescribedabove.9

TheFuture:A2050LegislatedTargetanda2050TargetScopingPlan10

TheLegislaturecouldadopta2030targetinthenear‐term,butwillalsoadoptadedicated,11long‐range2050targetatsomepoint.12

Inthenear‐term,anyARBscopingplanformeetinga2050targetwilllikelybeageneral13phasedapproachthatwillnotconstituteadetailed,specific,andfeasibleplanofactionlike14thatwhichexistsinthecurrentAB32ScopingPlan.LackingsuchaStateactionplanfor152050,CEQAGHGanalysesshouldbebasedonevaluatingprojectemissionsouttothe16horizonyearofstateactionplanning(whichmaybesoonerthan2050),and,asnecessary,17evaluationof“substantialprogress”towardlonger‐termreductiontargets.18

Intime,ARBwilldevelopafeasibleandspecificplanofactionfor2050,thoughitmaybe19yearsincoming.Atthatpoint,CEQAGHGanalysiswillneedtomakeadjustmentsinorderto20bebasedonfullyevaluatingprojectemissionsforconsistencywitha2050planofaction.21

The Role of General Plans 22

Inthepost‐2020period,therewillbeincreasingpressuretoincludeambitiouspoliciestoreduce23GHGemissionswithingeneralplans.Givenpasthistory,itislikelythatpressuregroupswill24continuetouseCEQAlawsuits,GHGemissions,andtheneedforlong‐termreductionstogain25leverageinanattempttoforcelocaljurisdictionstomodifygeneralplanstoreflecttheirdesired26outcomes.Asweshiftfrom2020targetsto2030targetsandbeyond,manypeoplewillbelookingto27generalplanstoensurethatlanduseplanningreflectsthecurrentStatetarget(s)andmilestonesfor28GHGemissionreductions.29

Thispapermakesthefollowingrecommendationsconcerninggeneralplans:30

CoordinateGeneralPlansandClimateActionPlans.Withever‐increasingGHGemissions31reductionambitions,generalplansandCAPsmustbebroughtintobetterandcloseralignment32inorderforlocalGHGreductionmeasurestohavesufficientrigor,support,enforcement,and33monitoringtoensurethattheyareeffectivelyimplemented.34

LimitPlanningHorizonsto20yearsforGeneralPlanCEQAAnalysistoBetterMatch35RegionalPlanningHorizons.LegislationshouldrequiretheCEQAGuidelinestobeamended36specifictogeneralplans,toallowforimpactstobeanalyzedoverthesameplanninghorizon37requiredforotherregionalplanningtoolssuchaswatersupply/demand,andtransportation38planning.39



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The Role of Climate Action Plans 1

ThelocaltargetsettingprocessforCAPsfor2020hasprovidedimportantlessonsthatcanbe2appliedtosettingtargetsincomingyears.MostCAPshaveincludedtargetsfor2020,andsome3discussreductionstoachieveatrajectoryfor2050,but2020hasbeentheprimaryfocuson4identifyingreductionmeasures.5

The2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdatestatesthefollowing:6

“Localgovernmentreductiontargetsshouldchartareductiontrajectorythatisconsistent7with,orexceeds,thetrajectorycreatedbystatewidegoals.Improvedaccountingand8centralizedreportingoflocalefforts,includingemissionsinventories,policyprograms,and9achievedemissionreductions,wouldallowCaliforniatofurtherincorporate,andbetter10recognize,localeffortsinitsclimateplanningandpolicies.”11

Achievingareductiontrajectorythatisconsistentwithorexceedsastatewidetrajectoryisnota12straightforwardprocess.Thecircumstancesineachcommunityvarytremendouslyduetodiffering13growthrates,climate,existingbuiltenvironment,economichealth,andlocalcommunityand14politicalpreferences.15

Currently,itisextremelydifficultforaleadagencyorprojecttofullyachievealocalpost‐202016targetintheabsenceofastatewideplantoachieveapost‐2020target.WhilethereareGHG17reductionplansthatdoincludeapost‐2020target,thoseemissionsreductionsaresubjectto18uncertaintyandspeculationabouttheamountofreductionsthatcanbeattributedtoStateand19federalreductionsbeyond2020.Intheabsenceofapost‐2020targetpassedbytheLegislature,the20questionthatwillbecomeincreasinglyimportantforlocalGHGreductionplanningiswhether21showingprogresstoachievepost‐2020goalsissufficient,orwhethertheGHGreductionplanmust22actuallyachievethe2050targetevenintheabsenceofaStatelegislativetargetorplanfora23particularmilestone.24

Thiswhitepaperprovidessector‐by‐sectorconsiderationsforlocalGHGemissionsreduction25measuresinthepost2020period.Whilenotcomprehensive,thisreviewisintendedtoprovide26ideasfordifferentstrategiesthatcanbeappliedinapost‐2020world.27

ThispapermakesthefollowingrecommendationsconcerningClimateActionPlans:28

AdoptPost‐AB32Targets.TheCaliforniaLegislatureshouldtakeactiontoadopt2030(or292035)and2050GHGreductiontargetsthathavetheforceoflawthroughouttheState.There30isnoStateplantoachieve80percentbelow1990levelsby2050(oraninterimgoalfor2030),31andconsequentlythereisnoguidanceonaframeworkbywhichalocaljurisdictioncan32understanditsfairsharetobeaddressedthroughlocalGHGreductionplanning.33

InitiateARBPlanningfor2030and2050.Concomitantwithlegislativeaction,ARBshould34prepareaplantoachievetheselectedlegislativetargetfor2030withadetailedanalysisby35measureandsectoroftheGHGreductionsachievablethroughStatepolicyandinitiative.This36extendedscopingplancancreatethecontextwithinwhichlocalandregionalgovernments37canevaluateandidentifytheirfair‐sharerole.38

Create2030to2050Scenarios/Calculators.Californiashouldcreatea2050California39calculatortoinformCaliforniansastheyfacethe2050challengeinthecomingyears.Sucha40calculatorshouldbepreparednotonlyfortheStateasawhole,butshouldbeextendedto41allowjurisdictionstoexaminetheirlocalemissions,aswellapplyingdifferentscenarios.Given42



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theneedforinterimtargetplanningtoward2050,themodelsshouldalsoincludeinterimyear1markersof2030,2040,and2050.2

"Walking to Run" 3

ThispaperarguesthattheprudentapproachforlocalGHGreductionplanningistofocusonrealistic4andachievableGHGreductionsunderthecontroland/orsubstantialinfluenceoflocalgovernments5themselves,andtodosointhecurrentcontextofState(andinthefuturepossiblyfederal)GHG6reductionplanning.LocalGHGreductionplanningwillneedtobecomeincreasinglymoreambitious7onaphasedbasis.CAPsshouldbeupdatedandexpandedperiodicallytoreflecttheemerging8broaderframeworkfordeeperfuturereductions.ThetestforlocalCAPsandassociatedCEQA9practicesconcerningGHGprojectanalysisshouldbewhetherlocalactionandprojectmitigationis10resultinginreasonablelocalfair‐shareofGHGreductionsovertime,andwhichshow“substantial11progress”towardthelong‐termStatereductiontargets. 12



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I. Introduction 1


Problem Definition 3

LocalGHGreductionplanningbycitiesandcountiesinCaliforniahasbeenprimarilyfocusedon4adoptinglocalGHGreductionmeasuresthataresupportiveofreachingthe2020GHGtarget5establishedinAssemblyBill(AB)32tolimitemissionsto1990Statelevels.Similarly,GHGanalysis6andmitigationfordiscretionaryprojectsreviewedunderCEQAhasbeenconductedunderthe7rubricofthresholdsthatarebasedonconsistencywithAB32reductiongoalsfor2020.8

AB32isnottheendbutthebeginningofGHGreductionplanning,giventhatthelong‐termglobal9imperativetolimitthemoreextremeeffectsofglobalwarmingonclimatechangewillrequiremuch10moresubstantialreductionsoutto2050.Thosegoalsaremostcommonlydefinedasreducing11developedworldemissionstoalevel80percentbelow1990levels(asreflectedinExecutiveOrder12S‐03‐05).13

As2020approaches,legislativeattentionisstartingtoturntothepost‐2020period.Inaddition,14legalchallengesbroughtunderCEQAtotheSanDiegoAssociationofGovernments(SANDAG)15RegionalTransportationPlan/SustainableCommunitiesStrategy(RTP/SCS),andtheSanDiego16CountyClimateActionPlan(CAP)2,havesuccessfullyraisedconsistencywith2050reductiongoals17asanissueforCEQAreview.18

TherearenotrueGHGreductionplansanywhereintheworldthathaveadoptedenforceable19measurestomeettheambitious2050targets.20

AslocalcitiesandcountiesinCaliforniaprepareGHGreductionplansandconductCEQAanalysisof21projectswithemissionsthatgowellbeyond2020outto2050,theywillfacesubstantialchallenges22whichinclude,butarenotlimitedto,thefollowing:23

Long‐termEmissionsForecasting.Forecastingforapoint35yearsinthefutureisfraught24withissues,uncertainties,andpotentiallylargemarginsoferror.Oneneedonlylookatthe25pre‐2008forecastsforpopulation,housing,andeconomicconditions(comparedtoactual26conditionsduringandafterthefollowingrecession)tounderstandhowprofoundly27socioeconomicforecastscanchange.Forecastingto2050requiresnumerousassumptions28abouttheenergyandtransportationsystemsrelatedtoenergyuseandrelatedGHG29emissions.Forexample,howGHG‐intensivewillelectricitybe?Whatwillenergypricesbe?30Whatwilltheregionaltransportationnetworklooklike?Assumptionsmustalsobemade31abouttechnology:Whattypesofvehicleswillbeinuse?Whatkindsoftransportationfuels32willbereadilyavailable?Whatwillbethefeasibilityoflocal‐levelrenewableenergy33generationandstoragetechnologies?34

RegulatoryUncertainty.WiththepassageofAB32,alegallyenforceablestatewidegoalfor35GHGemissionsreductionswasestablished.TheAB32ScopingPlandefinedhowtheState36

2“ClimateActionPlan”or“CAP”isatermofartcommonlyusedtorefertoalocalgreenhousegasreductionplan.SomeCAPsalsoincludeaplanforadaptationtoexpectedclimatechange.Somejurisdictionsuse“GreenhouseGasReductionPlan”instead.Inthiswhitepaperthetermsareusedinterchangeableinrelationtogreenhousegasreductions.



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wouldmeetthatgoal.AframeworkofanalysiswasthendevelopedusingtheAB32targetto1makesignificancedeterminationsunderCEQA.ThedevelopmentofCalifornia'splanto2achieve2020reductiontargetsprovidedacriticalcontextforunderstandinghowtheGHG3emissionsoflocalprojectsandplansfitintotheoverallpicture.Nosuchclarityexistsforpost‐42020sincetherearenoactualplansforachieving2050reductiontargets,oranymilestone5between2020and2050.3Inotherwords,thereisnocomprehensiveapproach(liketheAB326ScopingPlan)thatestablishesaframeworkforcollaborativeactionsbyState,local,and7regionalagenciestomeetGHGreductiongoals.AlocalorregionalCEQAleadagencyis8thereforeleftonitsowntoascertainwhattheStateorfederalgovernmentmay(ormaynot)9implementtoachieveapost‐2020reductiongoal.10

TargetDetermination.The"zerothreshold"approachofconsideringanynewGHGemission11toresultinacumulativelyconsiderablyimpacthasbeenrejectedbynearlyallCEQAlead12agenciesandpractitioners.Instead,currentCEQAanalysesareexaminingprojectGHG13emissionsinthecontextoftheirpotentialtoadverselyaffecttheState'sabilitytomeetAB3214for2020.ThatapproachisfeasiblegiventhatleadagenciescanevaluatetheState'splanto15implementAB32for2020.Thoseleadagenciescanalsoevaluatetheirjurisdiction's16contributionstoGHGemissionsandidentifythereductionsneededonalocallevelthatwould17meettheAB32goal,usingthecombinedeffectofStateandlocalaction.Itwouldbe18speculativetopredicttheimpactsofaStateorfederalactionto2050.Accordingly,onecannot19readilycompletesuchagapanalysisfor2050withoutmassivespeculation,andsuch20speculationwouldfurtherhinderdeterminationofaninformedtargettoguidelocalactions21for2050.22

Fair‐ShareDetermination.Settingasidethechallengeswithforecasting,regulatory23uncertainty,andtargetdeterminationdescribedabove,itisbothspeculativeandproblematic24todeterminewhatalocaljurisdiction’s“fairshare”ofGHGreductionsshouldbefor2050at25thistime.Constitutionallimitations(Nollan,Dolan,etc.)mandatethatmitigationmustbe26proportionaltoaproject'slevelofimpact.Asnotedabove,absentanactualStateplanto27reduceemissionsfor2050,itishardtoseehowalocalorregionalplanorprojectcanbefairly28assignedthemajorityofthemitigationburdenandstillbecalled“proportional.”Local29jurisdictionswouldbeflyingblindiftheyweretoindividuallyspeculatewhattheirfair‐shares30wouldbeatthispoint,andwouldriskundulyburdeningtheircitizensandbusinesseswith31disproportionatemitigationresponsibilitiesiftheyimposedadditionalmitigationbeyondthat32neededtomeetAB32.33

Feasibility.Inadditiontothefair‐shareburdenissueisthequestionoffeasibility.Technically,34therearenumerouswaystoreduceGHGemissionsfornewdevelopment(seediscussionlater35inthispaper).Buttherearealsoseveretechnicalchallengestofullyachievingsubstantial36emissionsreduction.Furthermore,thefeasibilityofachievingsubstantialreductionsonthe37orderof80to90percentthroughlocalactiononlyisquestionablegivenlimitationsonlocal38municipalityauthority.Nocityorcountyiscompletelyautonomousinmattersofenergyand39transportationsystems.Whileamunicipalitycaninfluencecertainmatters,manydecisions40abouttheelectricityandtransportationsystemsareunderthecontroloftheStateandfederal41government,and/orarecontrolledbymarketdeterminations.Toachievea2050goalwill42requiremajorshiftsinhowweobtainanduseenergy,transportourselvesandgoods,andhow43

3ExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05isanexecutivedepartmentgoalandisneitheralegallyenforceabletargetforprivatedevelopmentorlocalgovernmentsnorisitaplan.



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weliveandbuild.Thesetransformationswouldrequireimplementationacrossalllevelsofthe1economy,notjustwhatlocaljurisdictionshaveauthorityover;placingthe2050burden2predominantlyonlocaljurisdictionswouldthusbehighlydisproportional,costly,and3potentiallysubjecttolitigation.Evenifoffsetsareincludedtoovercomepotentiallocal4mitigationlimitations,thepurchaseanduseofoffsetswouldbefraughtwithuncertaintyin5termsofhowtheyshouldbeappliedandwhatthelegalbasiswouldbeforimposing6mitigationtobeconsistentwitha2050target,7

Progress vs. Perfection 8

"Foreveryproblemthereisasolutionthatissimple,elegant,andwrong."‐H.L.Mencken9

ThesimplisticanswertothechallengesdescribedaboveisthatGHGreductionplansandCEQA10documentsshouldusethe80percentbelow2050targetasthemetricofevaluation,andshould11mandatecomplianceaccordingly.ThislineofreasoningisthesubtextofthetwoCEQAlegal12challengesinSanDiegonotedabove.13

Whileeasytounderstand,thispointofviewiswrongonmanylevels;notablyregardingfeasibility,14jurisdictionalcontrol,economicefficiency,andcommonsense.Aswillbeexplainedindetaillaterin15thispaper,inordertoreachthe2050reductiontarget,theCaliforniaeconomywouldhaveto16undergoaradicaltransformationinenergyusageandcontrolofnon‐energyemissions.Sucha17transformationisnotfeasibleintheshortrun.TherealityisthatCaliforniacitiesandcountieshave18onlylimitedregulatorytoolsbywhichtoeffectchange,notthebroaderregulatorycontrolover19vehicletechnology,fuels,andenergysystemsthatisexertedbytheStateandthefederal20government.GHGreductionplanningtodatehasshownthatrelativeportfoliosofreduction21methodsemployedbylocal,State,federalgovernmentsvarywidely.Torequirethatmostofthe22reductionscomeonlyfrommeasureswithinthecontroloflocalgovernments—ratherthanseeking23cost‐effectivemeasuresovertimefromeverylevelofcontrol—wouldresultinenormouseconomic24costs.AsshowninGHGreductionplanningtomeettheAB32targettodate,theamountofexpected25reductionsfromStatemeasuresfundamentallyinfluencesthegapthatlocaljurisdictionsoftenseek26tofillthroughlocalaction.Finally,itmakesnosensetoinsistonasolutiontoaglobalproblemby27pursuingremediesatthesmallestlevelsoforganization,i.e.,thelocaljurisdictionforGHGreduction28plansandtheprojectbyprojectunderCEQA.29

Instead,thispaperarguesthatforthe2020to2050period,thefundamentalmetricforlocalGHG30reductionplansandforprojectanalysisunderCEQAshouldbesubstantialprogresstowardthe205031target,ratherthanachievementofthe2050target.Ametricbasedonsteadyprogresstowarda205032targetwillbeabetterfoundationforlocalsupportandcommitmentovertime,andwouldbeakey33sourceofsupportforcontinuedStateGHGreductionefforts.Conversely,ametricrequiringradical34andhighlydisruptivechangeoverashortperiodwillbemuchmorelikelytoengendersubstantial35localresistanceandorganizedoppositiontolocalGHGreductionaction,resultinginlesslocal36supportforStateGHGreductionplansinthelongrun.37

Be Careful What You Wish For: The Limitations and Perils of CEQA 38

CEQAisprimarilyintendedtoprovidedisclosuretothepublicandtodecision‐makersaboutthe39environmentaleffectsofnewprojects,andtocreateopportunitiesforconsiderationofpublicinput40onenvironmentalimpacts.CEQAisapoorplanningtoolforfindingandimplementingsolutionsto41cumulativeimpactsthatoperateonalandscapelevel,asitisinherentlyboundtotheindividual42



Page 10 March 2015

projectcircumstancesofeachCEQAreview.Forexample,CEQAreviewhasnotresultedineffective1solutionstoexistingregionaltrafficsolutionsincongestedpartsofCalifornia,norhasitresultedin2effectivesolutionstoexistingairqualitychallenges.Thesolutionstothoseproblemswillbefound3outsideofCEQA.4

OneofthepremisesoftheSanDiegoCEQAchallengesnotedaboveisthatthesolutionstoregional5GHGreductionscanandwillbefoundwithintheCEQAprocess,whichishighlyunlikely.Ratherthan6obtainingthelong‐termresultsdesiredbythosewhobroughtforwardtheSanDiegochallenges,a7morelikelyresultisthatCEQAprocesses,iffacedwithinfeasiblemitigationand/oralternative8demands,willbeforcedtouselargerdocuments(moreEIRs),andmakemorestatementsof9overridingcircumstances.Further,iftheoppositiontoadditionalGHGreductionmandateswereto10compelfurtheractiononastatewidepoliticallevel,onecouldseelegislativechangestoCEQAto11preventsuchdemands.12

WhileCEQAcanbeasupportingtoolforGHGreductions,itisthepremiseofthispaperthatlocal13andregionalGHGreductionplanning,coordinatedandinphasewithStateplanningandaction,14focusedonactionsthatarerealisticallyunderthecontrolandinfluenceoflocalgovernment,isa15preferredapproachtoever‐increasingandultimatelyineffectiveCEQAlawsuits.16

Slow and Steady Wins the Race 17

Environmentalpolicy(andmostpublicpolicy)operatesinadynamictensionbetweenradical18changeandincrementalreform.Whilethereisanunmistakableappealtoboldandrapidchange19whenfacedwithaprofoundchallenge,likethatposedbyclimatechange,thaturgencyneedstobe20temperedwiththeabilityofsociety,theeconomy,andgovernmententitiestoadapttoandembrace21thatchange.Intheexperienceoftheauthorsofthispaper—wholeadGHGreductionplanning22practicesatprofessionalfirmsthatconductmanyoftheGHGreductionplans,aswellasCEQA23analysisofGHGemissionsinCalifornia—localgovernmentswilltakeactionwhenthereis1)aclear24contextforplanning,2)abalancedandreasonableburdenonlocaljurisdictions(comparedtothat25takenonbytheStateandfederalgovernment),and3)realisticexpectationsthathaveafavorable26chanceofsuccess.27

TheCEQAlawsuitsinSanDiegoaretheequivalentofhittingabeehivewithasticktoremovethe28beesandobtainhoney.Conversely,leveraginglocalsupportandaction,withasteadyand29consistentlycoordinatedapproachwithStateandfederalsupport,isequivalenttothemorecautious30approachofanexperiencedbeekeeperwhounderstandsbeebehavior,preparescarefully,and31movesslowlyandsteadilytocompletethetasksathand. 32



Page 11 March 2015

II. Climate Science Background 1


Scientificstudieshavedemonstratedacausativerelationbetweenincreasingman‐madeGHG3emissionsandalong‐termtrendinincreasingglobalaveragetemperatures.Thisconclusionisthe4consensusofthevastmajorityofclimatescientistswhopublishinthefield.Theeffectsofpast5increasesintemperatureontheclimateandtheearth’sresourcesarewelldocumentedinthe6scientificliterature,whichisbestsummarizedintheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange7(IPCC)’speriodicreports,thelatestofwhichistheFifthAssessmentReport,releasedin20148(http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/).9

ModelingoffutureclimatechangewithcontinuedincreaseinGHGemissionsindicatesthatnet10substantialadverseeffectstoboththehumanenvironmentandthephysicalenvironmentwill11increasewiththeriseintemperatures.Manyscientificbodiesaroundtheworldhaveconcludedthat12avoidingthemostsevereoutcomesofprojectedclimatechangewillrequirekeepingglobalaverage13warmingtonomorethan2°C(3.5°F),relativetopre‐industriallevels(or~1°C(2°F)abovepresent14levels).Whileremainingbelowtheselevelsdoesnotguaranteeavoidanceofsubstantialadverse15effects,iftheselevelsareexceededimpactsareprojectedtobecomemoresevere,widespread,and16irreversible.Itshouldbenotedthataglobalaverageriseof2°Cmeansthatthecenteroflarge17continents,includingNorthAmerica,willseetemperatureincreasestwicethisrate,withevenlarger18increasesinthePolarRegions.19

Inordertohaveaneven4chanceatkeepingglobalaveragetemperaturestotheselevels,the20concentrationsofGHGsintheatmospherewouldlikelyneedtopeakbelow450ppmcarbondioxide21equivalent(CO2e)(IPCC2014).InordertohaveanevenchancetostabilizeGHGconcentrationat22thislevel,globalemissionswouldhavetodeclinebyabout50percent(comparedto2000levels)by232050.Giventhemorelimitedcapabilityofdevelopingcountriestolimittheiremissionsinthis24periodofrapideconomicgrowthandexpansion,estimatesarethatgreenhousegasemissionsin25industrializedcountries,includingtheUnitedStates,wouldhavetodeclinebyapproximately8026percent(comparedto2000levels).FortheU.S.,thistargetwouldcorrespondtoapproximately7827percentbelow1990levels(UnionofConcernedScientists2007).Someestimatesassertthat28industrializedcountriesmayhavetoreduceemissionsby80to95percentcomparedto1990levels29toprovideforstabilizationatthe2°Cincreasethreshold(IPCC2007).30

Thepolicyshorthandfortheseestimateshasmostcommonlybeenatargetforindustrialcountries31toreducetheiremissionsby80percentbelow1990levels.ThisisthelevelreferencedinExecutive32OrderS‐03‐05,forexample,for2050(seediscussionbelow).Themoreshort‐termGHGreduction33targets,suchastheAB32Statereductiontargetofreaching1990levelsby2020,areintendedas34interimstepstoreversethetrendofever‐increasingGHGemissions,andtomakesubstantial35progressonthedecades‐longefforttoreachlong‐termreductionsneededby2050.36

4“Even”asina50percentchance.Ingeneral,avarietyofscientificstudies,assummarizedintheIPCC2014FifthAssessmentReportconcludethatthereisa50:50chanceofkeepingtemperatureincreasesbelowthe2°C/3.5°FincreasethresholdwithGHGconcentrationsof450ppmCO2e.



Page 12 March 2015

III. Regulatory Setting 1

Rich Walter, ICF International; Cheryl Laskowski, Atkins. 2

InsettingexpectationsforlocalGHGreductionplanningbeyond2020,itisimportanttoreviewthe3existingregulatorysettingandhowitmayaffectlocalGHGreductionsfrom2020to2050.4

Legislation, Regulation and Other Guidelines 5

Executive Order S‐03‐05 (2005) 6

EOS‐03‐05establishedthefollowingGHGemissionreductiontargetsforCalifornia'sStateagencies:7

By2010,reduceGHGemissionsto2000levels.8

By2020,reduceGHGemissionsto1990levels.9

By2050,reduceGHGemissionsto80percentbelow1990levels.10

ExecutiveordersarebindingonlyonStateagenciesandarenotbindingonlocalgovernmentsorthe11privatesector.Accordingly,EOS‐03‐05guidesStateagencies'effortstocontrolandregulateGHG12emissions,buthasnodirectbindingeffectonlocalgovernmentalorprivateactions.TheSecretaryof13theCaliforniaEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(CalEPA)isrequiredtoreporttotheGovernorand14StateLegislaturebiannuallyontheimpactsofglobalwarmingonCalifornia,onmitigationand15adaptationplans,andonprogressmadetowardreducingGHGemissionstomeetthetargets16establishedinthisexecutiveorder.17

AsdescribedbelowindiscussionofGHGlitigation,EOS‐03‐05hasplayedaroleinrecentCEQA18courtcasesintermsofdeterminingtheadequacyofGHGprojectanalysis.19

Assembly Bill 32‐California Global Warming Solutions Act (2006) 20

AB32codifiedtheState'sGHGemissionstargetbyrequiringthatCalifornia’sglobalwarming21emissionsbereducedto1990levelsby2020.Sinceitsadoption,theARB,CEC,CPUC,andthe22BuildingStandardsCommissionhavealladoptedregulationsthatwillhelpmeetthegoalsofAB32.23

The2008ScopingPlanforAB32identifiesspecificmeasurestoreduceGHGemissionsto199024levelsby2020,andrequiresARBandotherStateagenciestodevelopandenforceregulationsand25otherinitiativesforreducingGHGs.Specifically,theScopingPlanarticulatesakeyroleforlocal26governments,recommendingthattheyestablishGHGreductiongoalsforboththeirmunicipal27operationsandtheircommunities,consistentwiththoseoftheState.28

The2014UpdateoftheAB32ScopingPlanreviewedthestatusofprogresstowardmeetingtheAB2932targetfor2020,anditalsopresentedprioritiesandrecommendationsforachievinglonger‐term30emissionreductionobjectives.The2014UpdateincludesdiscussionofapotentialGHGreduction31targetfor2030of35to40percentbelow1990levels,butdoesnotspecificallyrecommenda203032target,nordoesitpresentanactualplantoachievesuchreductions.TheUpdatestipulatesthat33emissionsfrom2020to2050willhavetodeclineseveraltimesfasterthantherateneededtoreach34the2020emissionslimit(fromapproximately1percentdeclineperyearbetween2010and2020to35over5percentperyearbetween2020and2050).36



Page 13 March 2015

AB32alsoestablishedthelegislativeintentthatthestatewideGHGemissionslimitshouldendure,1andshouldbeusedtomaintainandcontinuereductionsinGHGemissionsbeyond2020.ARBis2requiredtomakerecommendationstotheGovernorandtheLegislatureonhowtocontinue3reductionsofGHGemissionsbeyond2020;butitwilltakeanactoftheLegislaturetolegally4establishbindingstatewideGHGemissionstargetsfortheperiodbeyond2020.5

Assembly Bill 1493: Pavley Rules (2002, Amendments 2009, 2012) 6

Knownas"PavleyI,"AB1493setthenation'sfirstGHGstandardsforautomobiles.AB14937requiredARBtoadoptvehiclestandardsthatloweredGHGemissionsfromnewlightdutyautosto8themaximumextentfeasible,beginningin2009.AdditionalstrengtheningofthePavleystandards9(previouslyreferredtoas"PavleyII,"nowcommonlycalledthe"AdvancedCleanCars"measure)10hasbeenadoptedforvehiclemodelyears2017‐2025.Together,thetwostandardsareexpectedto11increaseaveragefueleconomytoroughly43milespergallonby2020,andreduceGHGemissions12fromthetransportationsectorinCaliforniabyapproximately14percent.InJune2009,theEPA13grantedCalifornia'swaiverrequestenablingtheStatetoenforceitsGHGemissionsstandardsfor14newmotorvehiclesbeginningwiththecurrentmodelyear.15

EPAandARBworkedtogetheronajointrulemakingefforttoestablishGHGemissionsstandardsfor16model‐year2017‐2025passengervehicleswhichwouldleadtoafleetaverageof54.5mpgin2025.17

Therearecurrentlynoadoptedstandardsforpassengervehiclesforafter2025.However,the201718mid‐termreviewforAdvancedCleanCars—whereARB,USEPA,andNHTSAwillconductatechnical19assessmentofvehicletechnologytrends—willinformfuturelight‐dutyvehiclestandardstargetedat20continuingtoachieveGHGemissionreductionsofaboutfivepercentperyearthroughatleast2030.21

Senate Bills 1078/107 and Senate Bill 2 (2011): Renewables Portfolio Standard 22

SenateBills(SB)1078and107,California'sRenewablesPortfolioStandard(RPS),obligates23investor‐ownedutilities(IOUs),energyserviceproviders(ESPs),andCommunityChoice24Aggregations(CCAs)toprocureanadditional1percentofretailsalesperyearfromeligible25renewablesourcesuntil20percentisreached,nolaterthan2010.TheCaliforniaPublicUtilities26Commission(CPUC)andCECarejointlyresponsibleforimplementingtheprogram.SenateBill227(2011)setforthalongerrangetargetofprocuring33percentofretailsalesby2020.Thereisno28currentRPSrequirementfortheperiodafter2020andthusthe33percentrequirementwould29remaininplaceafter2020pendingadditionallegislation.Thecurrentpolicyaffectsonlythe30proportionofenergyderivedfromrenewablesanddoesnotsetabsoluteGHGemissionreduction31goals.Iftheother67percentofaprovider’sportfolioisderivedfromstaticsources,emissions32shouldreduceovertime,butthereisnoemissionsreductionmandatefromthisstandard.533

Executive Order S‐01‐07: Low Carbon Fuel Standard (2007) 34

EOS‐01‐07mandatesthat(1)astatewidegoalbeestablishedtoreducethecarbonintensityof35California'stransportationfuelsbyatleast10percentby2020;and(2)aLowCarbonFuelStandard36(LCFS)fortransportationfuelsbeestablishedinCalifornia.ThereisnoLCFSrequirementforthe37periodafter2020andthusthe10percentrequirementwouldremaininplaceafter2020pending38

5Sincenuclearandlargehydroelectricpowerarenotconsideredrenewable,variationsinprocurementofthesesourcesofenergyrelativetofossilfuel‐basedsourcescouldaffectthetotalemissionsfromenergy,evenwhileachievingtheRPS.



Page 14 March 2015

additionallegislation.However,ARBhasidentifiedapriorityinthe2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdate1toproposemoreaggressivelong‐termtargets,suchasa15to20percentreductioninaverage2carbonintensityoftransportationfuelsbelow2010levelsby2030.3

Senate Bill 375: Sustainable Communities Strategy (2008) 4

SB375establishesaplanningprocessthatcoordinateslanduseplanning,regionaltransportation5plans,andfundingprioritiesthatwouldhelpCaliforniameettheGHGreductiongoalsestablishedin6AB32.SB375requiresregionaltransportationplansdevelopedbymetropolitanplanning7organizations(MPOs)toincorporatea"sustainablecommunitiesstrategy"(SCS)intheirRegional8TransportationPlans(RTPs).ThegoaloftheSCSistoreduceregionalvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)9throughlanduseplanningandconsequenttransportationpatterns.Theregionaltargetswere10releasedbyARBinSeptember2010.SB375alsoincludesprovisionsforstreamlinedCEQAreview11forsomeinfillprojects,suchastransit‐orienteddevelopment.12

ThecurrentgoalsforVMT‐GHGreductionsidentifiedbyARBarefor2020and2035.However,SB13375callsforadoptingadditionalgoalsperiodicallythrough2050,whichprovidesamechanismfor14requiringfutureRTP/SCSstocontinuereducingVMT‐relatedGHGemissionsallthewayoutto2050.15ThecurrentgoalsidentifiedforVMT‐GHGreductionsarefocusedonreducingpercapitaVMT‐16relatedGHGemissionscomparedtoanominal2005baseline,buttheydonotmandateanabsolute17reductioninGHGemissions.18

California Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential and Non‐Residential 19Buildings: Green Building Code (2011), Title 24 Update (2014) 20

Californiahasadoptedaggressiveenergyefficiencystandardsfornewbuildingsandhascontinually21updatedthemformanyyears.In2008,theCaliforniaBuildingStandardsCommissionadoptedthe22nation'sfirstgreenbuildingstandards,whichincludestandardsformanyotherbuiltenvironment23aspectsbesidesenergyefficiency.TheCaliforniaGreenBuildingStandardsCode(proposedPart11,24Title24)wasadoptedaspartoftheCaliforniaBuildingStandardsCode(24CaliforniaCodeof25Regulations[CCR]).Part11establishedvoluntarystandardsthatbecamemandatoryinthe201026editionofthecode,includingplanninganddesignforsustainablesitedevelopment,energy27efficiency(inexcessoftheCaliforniaEnergyCoderequirements),waterconservation,material28conservation,andinternalaircontaminants.ThevoluntarystandardstookeffectonJanuary1,2011.29ThelatestupdateoftheTitle24energyefficiencystandardswasadoptedin2012andtookeffecton30January1,2014.Whilethereisnolegalmandatethattheenergyefficiencystandardsbeupdated,31givenpastpractice,itisprobablethatTitle24standardswillbeperiodicallyupdateduptoand32beyond2020.33

California Public Utilities Commission's Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan 34

TheCPUChasadoptedZeroNetEnergy(ZNE)goalsaspartofitslong‐termenergyefficiency35strategicplancallingforZNEforallnewresidentialbuildingsby2020,andZNEforallnew36commercialbuildingsby2030.Whilenotalegalmandate,thesegoalswillheavilyinfluencethe37periodicupdatesoftheCaliforniaBuildingStandardsunderTitle24.38



Page 15 March 2015

Greenhouse Gas Cap‐and‐Trade Program (2013) 1

OnOctober20,2011,ARBadoptedacap‐and‐tradeprogramforCalifornia,whichhascreateda2market‐basedsystemwithanoverallemissionslimitforaffectedsectors.Theprogramproposesto3regulatemorethan85percentofCalifornia'semissions,andwillstaggercompliancerequirements4accordingtothefollowingschedule:(1)electricitygenerationandlargeindustrialsources(2013);5(2)fuelcombustionandtransportation(2015).Thefirstauctionoccurredinlate2012withthefirst6complianceyearin2013.Thecap‐and‐tradeprogramisimplementedinsupportofAB32.Beyond72020,thecap‐and‐tradeprogramislikelytocontinuetobeimplemented.Withoutadditional8legislation,thelegalauthorityforthecap‐and‐tradeprogramwouldbelimitedtomaintainState9GHGemissionslevelsat1990levels.10

CEQA Guidelines (2010) 11

TheCEQAGuidelinesrequireleadagenciestodescribe,calculate,orestimatetheamountofGHG12emissionsthatresultfromdiscretionaryprojectsintheirCEQAdocument.Moreover,theCEQA13Guidelinesemphasizetheneedtodeterminepotentialclimatechangeeffectsofagivenprojectand14proposemitigationasnecessary.TheCEQAGuidelinesconfirmthediscretionofleadagenciesto15determineappropriatesignificancethresholds,butrequirethepreparationofanenvironmental16impactreport(EIR)if"thereissubstantialevidencethatthepossibleeffectsofaparticularproject17arestillcumulativelyconsiderablenotwithstandingcompliancewithadoptedregulationsor18requirements"(Section15064.4).19

Theguidelineswereupdatedin2010toaddressGHGemissions.CEQAGuidelinesSection15126.420includesconsiderationsforleadagenciesregardingfeasiblemitigationmeasurestoreduceGHG21emissions,whichmayinclude(1)measuresinanexistingplanormitigationprogramforthe22reductionofemissionsthatarerequiredaspartoftheleadagency'sdecision;(2)implementationof23projectfeatures,projectdesign,orothermeasureswhichareincorporatedintoaprojectto24substantiallyreduceenergyconsumptionorGHGemissions;(3)offsitemeasures,includingoffsets25thatarenototherwiserequired,tomitigateaproject'semissions;(4)measuresthatsequester26carbonorcarbon‐equivalentemissions,and/or(5)otherpossiblemeasures.27

CEQA GHG Thresholds 28

AnumberofairdistrictshaveadoptedCEQAguidelinesincludingGHGthresholdsusedfor29stationarysourcepermitting.Someairdistrictshavealsoadoptedguidelineswithrecommended30(butnotbinding)GHGthresholdsforuseinjurisdictionswithintheairdistrictforlanduseprojects.31TheCountyofSanDiegohasalsodevelopedGHGthresholdsforusebytheCountyforprojectsunder32itsjurisdiction.33

Themethodologiesforthedifferentthresholdsvary,andmayincludesomeorallofthefollowing:34(1)massemissions"bright‐line"thresholds;(2)percentreductionsbelowaBusinessasUsual(BAU)35level;(3)efficiency‐basedthresholds;(4)compliancewithaqualifiedGHGreductionstrategy;and36(5)BestManagementPractices(BMP).Someofthedistrictthresholdsincludemultipleoptions.37

AlloftheadoptedCEQAGHGthresholdsarebasedonthereductiontargetsinAB32.Noneofthe38adoptedCEQAGHGthresholdsaddressreductionstargetsbeyond2020oroutto2050.39



Page 16 March 2015

General Plan Guidelines 1

TheexistingCaliforniaGeneralPlanGuidelineswerelastcomprehensivelyupdatedin2003.A2supplementonCommunityandMilitaryCompatibilityPlanningwaspublishedin2009andupdated3in2013,andasupplementonCompleteStreetsandtheCirculationElementwaspublishedin2010.4Theexisting2003guidelinesandmilitarycompatibilitysupplementaresilentonthesubjectofGHG5emissionsandclimatechange.Thecompletestreetsandcirculationelementsupplementdoes6mentionthatreducingVMTisanimportantaspectofmeetingtheState’sGHGreductioneffort,but7doesnotelaborateonordescribeanyspecificGHGreductionefforts.8

TheOfficeofPlanningandResearch(OPR)ispresentlyworkingonanupdatetotheGeneralPlan9Guidelines.Theupdatewasplannedforreleasein2014forpublicreview,butasofMarch2015it10hasnotyetbeenreleased.Theupdateisexpectedtoincludeanextensiveoverviewoftherequired11generalplanelementsincludingtipsforcompliance,bestpractices,anddataresources.Inaddition12tothecurrentlyrequiredmandatoryelements,theupdatewillreportedlyfocusonfourkeyareas:13Economics,Equity,ClimateChange,andHealthyCommunities.14

OPR‐recommendedpoliciesintheupdatewillreportedlyfocusonimplementingthevisionofthe15State’s“California’sClimateFuture”—theGovernor’sEnvironmentalGoalsandPolicyReport16(EGPR)—forwhichadiscussiondraftwasreleased2013.TheEGPRacknowledgestheAB32target17andtheEOS‐03‐052050target,andcallsforamid‐termemissionsreductiontarget.TheEGPR18assertsthatcomprehensivepolicyapproachesareneededtoachievetheState’sclimatechange19emissionreductionandreadinessgoals,anditidentifiesfivekeyelementsthatwillmakeupthe20State’splantomeetthechallengeofclimatechange.21

DecarbonizetheState’senergyandtransportationsystems;22

PreserveandstewardtheState’slandsandnaturalresources;23

Buildsustainableregionsthatsupporthealthy,livablecommunities;24

Buildclimateresilienceintoallpolicies;and25

Improvecoordinationbetweenagenciesandimprovedataavailability.26

AstheGeneralPlanGuidelinesupdateisintendedtohelpimplementtheEGPR,onecanexpect27additionalpolicyrecommendationsforgeneralplansintermsofeachofthesefiveareas.For28example,theEGPRcallsforalignmentoflocalgeneralplanswithregionalsustainablecommunities29strategies(wheretheyexist).TheEGPRalsocallsforenvironmentalmetricstobeincorporatedat30theState,regional,andlocallevel.31

OPRalsoincludesawebportalona“ClimateChange/GlobalWarmingElement”thatisidentifiedas32optional.6OPRdescribesthatexistinggeneralplanlawprovidesmanyopportunitiesforlocal33governmentstoaddressclimatechange,andthatmanyexistinggeneralplanpoliciesalreadyreduce34GHGemissionsandpreparefortheimpactsofclimatechange.Theseexistingpoliciesandprograms35canprovideastartingpointforcommunitiesastheydevelopcomprehensiveplanstoreduceGHG36emissionsandconsideradaptationstrategies.OPRalsodescribesthatthegeneralplanstructure37allowscitiesandcountiestoalignGHGemissionreductioneffortswithothercommunitygoals,38therebystrengtheningthelong‐termsustainabilityandresiliencyofthecommunityandtheState.39

6http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/action/cclu/output2.php?gpElmt=climateChngGlbl



Page 17 March 2015

AnotherresourceforcityandcountyplannersistheCAPCOAreportonModelPoliciesfor1GreenhouseGasesinGeneralPlans(CAPCOA2009).Itdiscussesgeneralplanstructureandoptions2forincludingGHGpoliciesinexistinggeneralplanelements,orforcreatingaseparateGHGElement3and/orGHGReductionPlan.TheModelPoliciesReportcontainsamenuofmodellanguagefor4inclusioninthegeneralplanelement(s).Thereportdoesnotdictatepolicydecisions;rather,it5providescitiesandcountieswithanarrayofoptionstohelpthemaddressGHGsintheirgeneral6plans.7

TherehavebeenrumorsthattheGeneralPlanGuidelineswillincludemuchmoreambitious8recommendationsforlocaljurisdictionsintermsofintegratingclimatechangeconcerns(both9mitigationandadaptation),buttheextenttowhichsucheffortsarerequiredormerelyoptional10withinfuturegeneralplansremainstobeseen.11

Recent San Diego CEQA Court Rulings 12

Two2014decisionsbytheCaliforniaFourthAppellateDistrictunderscoretheuncertaintyof13analyzingGHGemissionsunderCEQA,andtheneedforadditionalguidanceinthepost‐2020period.14

Cleveland National Forest Foundation et al. v. SANDAG 15

InOctober2011,SANDAGadoptedthe2050RegionalTransportationPlanandSustainable16CommunitiesPlan(RTP/SCS).TheRTP/SCSwasthefirstRegionalTransportationPlanthatincluded17aSustainableCommunitiesStrategy,andthefirsttoincludetheregionalpercapitaVMT‐related18GHGreductiontargetsforthepassengerandlight‐dutyvehiclesectorrequiredunderSenateBill37519for2020and2035.Subsequently,ClevelandNationalForestandtheCenterforBiologicalDiversity20filedapetitionclaimingthattheSANDAGEIRcertifyingtheRTP/SCSwasinadequate.21

ThepetitionersclaimedthatSANDAGfailedtoproperlyanalyze(amongotherissues)GHGimpacts.22TheEIRanalyzedGHGemissionsandconcludedthattheRTP/SCSwouldmeetthepercapita23reductiongoalsidentifiedbytheSB375mandate.TheEIRconcludedthattheRTP/SCSwouldresult24inanetreductioninVMT‐relatedGHGemissionsfor2020,andwouldnotconflictwithAB32.The25RTP/SCSincludedprojectsbeyond2020andtheEIRdisclosedanincreaseinGHGemissionspost‐262020.7However,theEIRclaimedthattherewerenoadoptedtargetsorplansbeyondthoseinAB3227andSB375,andthereforeconcludedthattheRTP/SCSdidnotconflictwithanyplanstoreduceGHG28emissions.In2012,thetrialcourtruledthattheEIRwas“impermissiblydismissiveofExecutive29OrderS‐03‐05”infailingtoanalyzehowtheRTPs/SCS2050GHGemissionsrelatedtothe2050goal30oftheExecutiveOrder,andinfailingtoadequatelyconsidertransportationmitigationmeasures31accordingly.32

SANDAGappealedthelowercourtdecisionandinNovember2014,athree‐judgepanelfromthe33FourthAppellateDistrictissuedatwo‐to‐onefindingupholdingthelowercourtdecision,concluding34thattheEIRviolatedCEQA.ThemajorityopinionheldthattheEIRfailedtoanalyzetheimpactofthe35RTP/SCSGHGemissionsovertime(includingitsincreaseoverbaselineemissionsby2050)onthe36abilityoftheStatetomeetingthe2050GHGreductiontargetinEOS‐3‐05.Ofparticularinterest,the37

7TheEIRindicatedthattransportationemissionswere14.33millionMTCO2ein2010(baseline)andwouldbe12.04MMTCO2ein2020,12.94MMTCO2ein2035,and14.74MMTCO2ein2050withimplementationoftheRTP/SCSandStateadoptedtransportationregulations(LCFS+Pavley).TheEIRactuallydisclosedasignificantandunavoidableimpactfor2050emissionsbutdidnotspecificallymakeanyfindingsrelativetoconsistencywithExecutiveOrderS‐3‐05whichthecourttookissuewith.



Page 18 March 2015

majorityopinionstatedthatitdidnotintendtosuggestthattheRTP/SCSmustachievetheEO’s12050goal,oranyotherspecificnumericgoal,butratherthattheEIRshouldhaveanalyzed2consistencywiththe2050goal,includingconsiderationofmitigation.Theminorityopinionasserted3thattheEOS‐3‐05doesnot,asarguedbySANDAG,constituteamandateorthresholdofsignificance,4asitwasnotpassedbytheLegislature.TheminorityopinionassertedthatEOS‐3‐05doesnothave5an“identifiablefoundationintheconstitutionalpoweroftheGovernororinstatutorylaw.”The6minorityopinionalsodescribedthesubstantialdifficultiesindeterminingaregionalfair‐shareof7GHGemissionsintheabsenceofalegislativeGHGreductiontargetfor2050,orwithoutaStateplan8toachieveanysuchtarget.9

InDecember2014,SANDAGvotedtoappealthedecisiontotheCaliforniaSupremeCourtandthe10SupremeCourtdecidedinMarch2015thatitwouldheartheappeal.11

San Diego CAP Lawsuit 12

In2011,theCountyofSanDiegopreparedandadoptedaGeneralPlanUpdateandProgrammatic13EIR(PEIR).InthePEIR,mitigationmeasure(MM)CC‐1.2statedthattheCountywouldpreparea14CAPtoreduceemissionstoalessthansignificantfinding.InJune2012,theCountyofSanDiego15BoardofSupervisorsadoptedaCAPandGHGsignificancethresholds,andpreparedanaddendumto16thePEIRasitsenvironmentaldocument.TheSierraClubsued,arguingthattheCAPdidnotcomply17withMMCC‐1.2;thatitfailedtomeettherequirementsforadoptingthresholdsofsignificancefor18GHGs;andthatitshouldhavebeenreviewedinaseparateEIRdocument,notanaddendum.19

In2013,theSuperiorCourt(thesamejudgeaspresidedinthetrialcourtoftheSANDAGcase)ruled20infavorofthepetitioners,statingthatasupplementalEIRwastheappropriateenvironmental21documentandtheCAPdidnotcontainsufficientenforcementrigorforreducingGHGemissions.The22Countyappealedtherulingandin2014theFourthAppellateDistrictaffirmedtheearlierfinding,23agreeingtheCAPwasinadequatebynotcomplyingwiththerequirementsofMMCC‐1.2.The24decisionnotesthat“[t]heCountycannotrelyonunfundedprogramstosupporttherequiredGHG25emissionsreductionby2020;”the“CAPcontainednodetaileddeadlines…acknowledg[ing]thatit26willnotbeeffectiveunlessitisupdated;”andthat“theCountymadeanerroneousassumptionthat27theCAPandThresholdsprojectwasthesameprojectasthegeneralplanupdate.”Further,theCourt28notedthatthe“County’sfailuretocomplywithMitigationMeasureCC‐1.2andAssemblyBillNo.3229andExecutiveOrderNo.S‐3‐05supportstheconclusionthattheCAPandThresholdsprojectwill30havesignificantadverseenvironmentalimpactsthathavenotbeenpreviouslyconsidered,mitigated31oravoided.”Thisconclusion,intheCourt’sopinion,wasbasedinpartonthefactthattheCAP,which32waslimitedtomeetinga2020reductiontarget,didnotaddresstheneedtofurtherreduce33emissionsafter2020sufficientlytosupportmeetingthe2050targetinEOS‐3‐05.34

InDecember2014,theCountyvotedtoappealthedecisiontotheCaliforniaSupremeCourt.The35SupremeCourtdecided,inMarch2015,tonotheartheappeal.Thustheappellatecourtrulingcan36becitedasprecedentinotherCEQAcases.However,sincetheSupremeCourtdecidedtohearthe37SANDAGappeal,theSupremeCourtmayruleontheissuesurroundingEOS‐3‐05andthe205038targetwhichcouldoverruletheprecedentintheappellatecourtringintheSanDiegoCAPruling.39

Implications of the San Diego Court Rulings 40

TheSANDAGdecisionmarkedthefirsttimeaCaliforniacourtheldthataCEQAleadagencymust41analyzeconsistencywithEOS‐03‐05tohaveanadequateanalysisofGHGemissions;however,this42



Page 19 March 2015

goalwasreaffirmedintheSanDiegoCountyCAPcase.TheSANDAGrulingraisesanumberof1questions,including:2

Howshouldplansanalyzeemissionsbeyond2020?Thecourtdecisiondidnotexplicitlystate3thattheEOconstitutedathreshold,butsuggestedthattheincreaseinemissionsbeyond20204wouldbeinconsistentwiththeEO.Thereisambiguityinwhethermaintainingemissionsat52020levels,ongoingreductionspost‐2020,orstrictcompliancewitha2050targetwould6demonstrateconsistencywiththeintentofStatepolicythrough2050.Intheopinionofthe7dissentingjudgeintheSANDAGcase,thisisarolefortheLegislature,notthecourts.8

IfaplanisconsistentwithAB32butcannotconcludeconsistencywiththeEO,canthatplan9concludeasignificantimpact?ForCAPscurrentlybeingdeveloped,jurisdictionsusually10demonstratecompliancewithAB32.Somealsoshowreductionsbeyond2020,butnonehave11afullyfundedplantoachieve2050reductionsconsistentwiththeEO.Iftheplanisnot12consistentwiththeEO,cantheCAPbeconsideredaGHGreductionplanunderCEQA13GuidelinesSection15183.5?Ifnot,jurisdictionsmaybedissuadedbythecostofpreparinga14CAPwithouttheincentiveofCEQAtieringfromtheCAPforindividualprojects.15

Whataretheimplicationsforlong‐termplanning?Asnotedbythecourt,SANDAGwasnot16requiredtoplanoutto2050initsRTP/SCS.Shouldagenciesavoidlong‐termplanningto17avoidtheuncertaintyinGHGemissions?Near‐termGHGreductiongoalsareeasiertoattain,18duetoStateandfederallegislationtoreduceemissionsfromenergyandtransportation19sectors.Agenciespreparinggeneralplans,CAPs,RTPs,andotherprogrammaticdocuments20mayoptforshorterplanninghorizonstofeasiblyanalyzeGHGimpactsandidentify21reasonablemitigationmeasures.Forcertaindocumentsthisapproachmayworkwell;22however,long‐rangeplanninghasbeenusedinCaliforniatoidentifygoalsandpoliciesthat23guidethephysical,economic,andsocialdevelopmentofcommunitiesoragencies.Identifying24majordevelopmentgoalsandprojectscanbebeneficial,evenforlong‐termGHGreduction25planning,andshorteningaplanningtimecouldbedetrimental.Whathorizonyearwouldbe26appropriateisnotclear.27

TheSanDiegoCAPdecisionreiteratesthesequestionsandalsobringsnewquestionstolight:28

WhatlevelofenforcementmustbedemonstratedforGHGreductionmeasuresincludedinaCAP?29ManyCAPsrelysolelyorprimarilyonvoluntaryactionstobetakeninconjunctionwith30educationandoutreachprograms,financiallyincentivizedprograms,andcoordinationwith31agenciesthataffectemissionswithinajurisdiction.Numerousstudiesdemonstratethat32reductionscanbeattainedthroughnon‐mandatoryparticipation;however,thedecision33suggeststhatthesemaynotconstitutesufficientevidenceforassuringGHGreductions.In34addition,suggestingthataCAPcannotrelyonunfundedprogramswouldlikelyeliminate35manyoftheanticipatedprojectsincludedinaCAP.Certainlythisimpedesconductingan36analysisforreducingemissionsoverthelongterm,asmostjurisdictionsdonothavefunding37identifiedoverthespanofseveralapproachingdecades.38

Whatlevelofmonitoringwouldbeadequatetodemonstrateenforceability?TheCAPrecognized39thatsomemeasuresmayfallshortoftheiranticipatedreductions,andthereforetheCAP40shouldbeupdatedtoaccountforshortfalls.TheCAPalsoincludedanannualmonitoringand41reportingprogram.However,theCAPdidnotsetaspecifictimelineforrevision,should42shortfallsbefound.ManyCAPsdoincludelanguagetoupdatetheCAP“priorto2020,”butthis43maybeopentoscrutinyiftheupdateisnotcompletedadequatelypriorto2020toensurea442020targetcanbemet. 45



Page 20 March 2015

IV. The 2050 Reduction Challenge 1


Contributing Author: Chris Gray, Fehr & Peers 3

InorderforalocaljurisdictiontounderstanditsroleinreducingGHGreductions,itisfundamental4tounderstandthepotentialeconomic,technological,andregulatoryscenariosshapingGHG5reductionsinthepost‐2020period.Academic,governmentagency,andotherresearchonpotential6pathwaysforCaliforniatoachieve2050reductiongoalsaresummarizedinthissection.7

2050 Scenarios 8

Potential2050scenariosfromavarietyofstudiesaresummarizedbelow.Onestudy(Greenblattand9Long2012)isreviewedindetailtoillustratesomeofthevariablesthatdrivefuturescenarios.A10comparisonoffuturescenariosoverallisthenprovidedbasedonarecentUCDavisstudy(Morrison11etal.2014).Subsequentscenariosarereviewedmorebrieflythanthemoredetailedpresentationof12GreenblattandLong(20120),butsimilardiscussionofkeydriverscanbefoundinthesourcestudy13documentation.14

California's Energy Future: The View to 2050 15

GreenblattandLong(2012)analyzedchangesinCalifornia'senergysystemsthatwouldbe16necessarytoreduceemissionsto60percentand80percentbelow1990levelsby2050.17

Theauthorsfirstanalyzedwhatwouldbeneededtoachievealevel60percentbelow1990levels18usingenergysystemstechnologiesthatareavailableorindemonstrationtodayassummarized19below.20

IncreaseEfficiency.Allbuildingswouldeitherhavetobedemolished,retrofitted,orbuilt21newtoveryhighefficiencystandards.Vehiclesofallsortswouldneedtobemade22substantiallymoreefficient.Industrialprocesseswouldneedtoadvancebeyondtechnology23availabletoday.24

RequireElectrification.Widespreadelectrificationwherevertechnicallyfeasiblewouldbe25required,throughtheuseofhybridorall‐electricvehicledrivetrains,heatpumpsforspace26andwaterheating,andspecializedelectricheatingtechnology(microwave,electricarc,etc.)in27industrialapplications.28

UseLowCarbonElectricity.Thedemandforelectricitygenerationwouldhavetobemet29withcombinationsofnuclearenergy,fossilfuelswithcarboncaptureandsequestration(CCS),30andrenewableenergy.Emissionsfrombalancingsupplyanddemandatalltemporaland31spatialscaleswouldalsoneedtobeconsidered.32

UseLowCarbonFuels.Asmuchaspossible,thedemandforfuelwouldneedtobemetwith33lownetlifecycleGHGbiofuels.34

Theauthorsconcludedthatwiththesefourstrategiesitwouldbetechnicallypossibletoachieve35reductionsapproximating60percentbelow1990levels.However,therearesomesubstantial36challengestoimplementingthesestrategies,asexplainedbelow:37



Page 21 March 2015

ElectricitySupply.Atpresent,itisillegaltoexpandnuclearpowerinCaliforniaunlessa1solutiontothepermanentstorageofnuclearwasteisresolved.CCShasnotbeensuccessfully2deployedatscale,andisbestconsideredexperimentalatthistime.Scenarioswithhigh3fractionsofwindandsolarenergycreatemoreseverechallengesforloadbalancing(i.e.,4providingpowerwhenthewindisn’tblowingorthesunisn’tshining).5

ElectricityLoadBalancing.Loadbalancingbecomesamorecriticalissuewithincreased6electrificationandincreaseduseofintermittentrenewableenergysources.Atpresent,the7mostfeasibleloadbalancingsourceisnaturalgas.Asafossilfuel,increaseduseofnaturalgas8willfrustrateemissionreductiongoalsintime.Zeroemissionsloadbalancing(ZELB)9technologiesincludeelectricitystorage,flexibledemandmanagement,andpossiblyother10strategies.GreenblattandLongdidnotanalyzethelikelihoodofachievinganyparticular11technologyforaccomplishingZELB,andthisissuewasidentifiedasclearlydeservingof12furtherstudy.13

BiomassFuelSupply.Fortransportationandstationaryusesthatcannotbeelectrified,14GreenblattandLongstatethatasubstantialincreaseofbiomass‐producedfuelswillbe15needed.Theyestimatethatperhaps13to42percentofthemediansupplyneededcouldbe16metfromCaliforniawasteproducts,cropresidues,anduseofmarginallandswiththe17remainderfromout‐of‐stateandout‐of‐countrysources.Theauthorsnotethereissubstantial18uncertaintyastotheworldwidesupplyofbiomassfuelsandalsoincalculatingGHGintensities19forbiofuels.20

Inanalyzingwhatwouldbeneededtoachievealevel80percentbelow1990levels,Greenblattand21Longexaminedmoreradicalmeasuresbeyondthosediscussedaboveinthe60percentscenario.22Theylistthefollowingtenstrategiesthatcouldreduceemissionsby80percent:23

DevelopthetechnologytomakeCCS100percenteffectiveandeconomical.24

EliminatefossilfuelswithCCSfromtheelectricitymix,andrelyonlyonnuclearenergy,25renewableenergy,oracombinationofthesesourcesformakingelectricity.26

Increasetheamountofloadbalancingthatisachievedwithoutemissionsfrom50percentto27100percent.28

Producebiomasswithnetzerocarbonemissionsbyeliminatingnetemissionsfromlanduse29change.30

Reduceenergydemandthroughubiquitousbehaviorchange.31

Producehydrogenfuel(fromcoalwithCCS)anduseittoreducefuelandelectricityuse.32

BurnalldomesticbiomasswithCCStomakeelectricitywithnetnegativeGHGemissions,33creatinganoffsetfortherequiredfossilfueluse.34

Increasethesupplyofsustainablebiomasstwofold,anduseittomakelow‐carbonbiofuels,35usingfeedstocksthatbestfitefficientconversiontotheneededenergymix.36

GasifycoalandbiomasstogetherwithCCS,anduseittomakelow‐carbonfuelsplussome37electricity.38

UsingCCS,convertbiomasstofuels(plussomeelectricity)withnetnegativeGHGemissions,39creatinganoffsetfortherequiredfossilfueluse.40



Page 22 March 2015

Onlythelastthreestrategiesaresufficient,ontheirown,toachievethe80percentreductiontarget1(ontopofthe60percentmeasures).Therearemyriadtheoreticalcombinationsthatcouldachieve2the80percentreductiontarget.Theauthorsstressthat"thechallengesaregreatforimplementing3evenoneofthesestrategies,letaloneseveral."Asanexampleofthemagnitudeofchallenges,the4authorsnotethat,"Itispossibletoconceiveofbiomass‐derivedenergywithoutdisastrousimpacts5onfoodsupply,ifthebiomassforenergyproductionislimitedtomarginallands,wastesandoff‐6seasoncovercrops,butthisisnotsomethingtotakeforgranted."Anotherexampleofchallengesthe7authorsdescribeisthat"thewidespreadavailabilityofCCSisnotaforegoneconclusion;much8developmentworkremainstobedone."9

Asshouldbeevidentfromthisreviewabove,thechangesneededstatewidearesubstantialand10severeandwouldrepresentfundamentalchangeinCalifornia'senergysystem—manyofwhichare11outsidethejurisdictionofindividualcitiesandcounties.12

Summary of Other 2050 Scenario Studies 13

SeveralotherresearchgroupshavebuiltintegratedenergyplanningmodelsforCaliforniathat14estimatethefuturetrajectoriesoftechnologies,fuels,infrastructure,and/oreconomicimpacts15(ARB‐VISION–ARB2012;BEAR‐Roland‐Holst2008;CCST–GreenblattandLong2012;PATHWAYS16‐Williamsetal.2012;CALGAPS‐Greenblatt2014;WWS‐Jacobsonetal.2014;SWITCH‐Nelsonet17al.2014;LEAP‐Weietal.2014;andCA‐TIMES‐Yangetal.2014).Morrisonetal.(2014)reviewed18thesestudiesindetailandthesummarybelowdrawsdirectlyfromtheirwork.19

Acrossmodels,theBAU2050scenarioshaveawiderangeofemissions.Themodelswiththehighest20BAUGHGemissionarethosewiththehighestpopulationandincomeassumptions.HigherBAUGHG21emissionmeansmoreeffortwouldbenecessarytoreachthe2050goals.Inscenariosthatachieve22deepreductionsinGHGsby2050,theGHGemissionswithpolicyinterventionsalsovarywidely.23Achievableemissionsfor2030inthesestudiesrangedfrom8to49percentbelow1990levelsand242050emissionsrangedfrom59to84percentbelow1990levels(Morrisonetal.2014).25

Therearevariousfactorsdrivingthedifferencesbetweenthescenarioresults.Forexample,26forecastsformarketadoptionoftechnologiesarebasedonadiversityofmethods.Theadoptionrate27istypicallyrelatedtoanunderlyingtechnologyreviewoftheliteratureorforecasts,butthemethod28ofapplicationvaries.OptimizationmodelsalsohaveanadditionalsetoffactorsthatdrivetheirGHG29reductions,includingtherelativecostsofmitigation,discountrate,thedesignofoptimization30algorithms,andotherfactors.31

Power Sector 32

Between2001and2013,electricitygenerationinCalifornia(includingbothin‐stateandnet33imports)increasedfrom267Terrawatt‐hours(TWh)to296TWh,andthecorrespondingrenewable34fractionofgeneratedenergyincreasedfrom14to20percent.AcrossBAUscenariosmodeledinthe35variouslong‐termscenariostudiesnotedabove,thetotalpowergenerationfromin‐stateand36importedelectricityrangesfrom356to389TWhby2030,and429to518TWhby2050(Morrison37etal.2014).Theseresultsreflectbothanincreaseddemandforelectricityaswellasincreased38electrificationofuses,suchasanincreasedtransportationuseofelectricity.39



Page 23 March 2015

Renewables 1

Acommonresultacrossthelong‐termreductionscenariosisthattheelectricitygridshiftstowards2renewablegeneration—particularlyafter2030—andmostend‐usesareelectrifiedby2050.3Becausesomesectorscannotbeelectrifiedoraredifficulttodecarbonize(suchasaviation,marine,4heavydutyroadfreight,etc.),GHGemissionsfromtheelectricitygridwilllikelyneedtobereduced5beyond80percenttosupportanoverallgoalforallsectorsof80percentbelow1990levels.Across6differentscenarios,therenewableportionoftotalgenerationrangesfrom30to85percentby2030,7and38to100percentby2050,withthemajorityofnewgenerationcomingfromwindandsolar.In8general,thelowervaluesintheserangesreflectscenarioswithgreaternuclearand/orCCSuse9(Morrisonetal.2014).10

Nuclear and CCS 11

Californiahasonlyoneoperationalnuclearpowerplant(DiabloCanyon)providing2.1GWofpower12totheState.Thepermitforthefacilityexpiresin2024butcanberenewed.Nonewnuclearpower13plantsareunderconstructionorplanned.Scenariomodelsdifferintheirrepresentationoffuture14nuclearpower.CCSalsohasdiverserepresentationacrossmodels.Allmodelshaveatleastone15scenariowithnaturalgasCCSandsomealsohavecoalCCS(Morrisonetal.2014).16

Growth Rate of Power Grid 17

Acrossscenarios,theimpliedbuildoutrateofin‐stateplusimportedrenewableelectricity(mostly18solarandwind)rangesbetween0.2to4.2GWperyearfrom2013until2030,withanaverageof0.819GWperyear.Therenewablebuild‐outrateincreasestobetween1.5to10.4GWperyearfrom203020until2050,withanaverageof3.9GWperyear(Morrisonetal.2014).Forperspective,from2001to212013therenewablecapacityusedbytheState(in‐stateandimportedelectricity)expandedby0.722GWperyear,whilenon‐renewablecapacityexpandedby1.6GWperyear(CEC2014).23

Electricity Imports 24

Modelsvaryintheirassumptionsaboutimports,withsomeassumingCaliforniaremainsanet25electricityimporter,andothersassumingelectricityimportsarephasedout;stillothersmake26assumptionsabouttheelectricitymixoutofStateorareneutralregardingthelocationsofelectric27generationplantsneededtomeetCalifornia’sdemand(Morrisonetal.2014).28

Passenger Transportation Sector 29

Astandardpracticeamongtransportationenergymodelsistomakeassumptionsaboutfuture30energyservicedemand(e.g.,statewideVMT)andthenallowthemodeltoestimatefuturefuelmix,31vehicle/technologymix,andemissions.ThemodelsreviewedbyMorrison(2014)allfollowthis32practice.Thelowerthefuturedemandassumptions,thelesstheneedforlow‐GHGemittingfuels33(Morrisonetal.2014).34

Forexample,inthereductionscenarioscitedabove,statewideVMTforlight‐dutyvehiclesis35assumedtochangefrom293billionmilesperyearin2010to226to600billionmilesperyearin362050.TherangeofthevariousVMTassumptionsisaresultantwidevariationintheprojected37energymix(Morrisonetal.2014).38

Totallight‐dutyvehicleenergydropsfrom2010to2030andagainfrom2030to2050indeep39reductionscenariosinmostscenariosdueto(1)underlyingassumptionsaboutenergyservice40



Page 24 March 2015

demanddecreasesinfutureyears,and(2)theimprovedefficiencyoflightdutyvehicletechnology.1Acrossthestudiedscenarios,petroleumconsumptiondeclines39to59percentby2030and58to2100percentby2050asthelight‐duty‐vehiclefleetmovesprimarilytobatteryelectric,plug‐in3hybridelectric,andhydrogenfuelcellvehicles(althoughthecompositionandmagnitudeofchange4variesbetweenscenarios).Regardlessoftheexactfleetcomposition,hydrogenandelectricitywith5near‐zerolife‐cycleGHGs(e.g.,fromwind,solar,biomass,naturalgaswithCCS)isneededtopower6virtuallyallofthelight‐dutyvehiclefleetby2050(Morrisonetal.2014).7

LocaljurisdictionshaveakeyroleininfluencingVMToutcomesgiventheircontroloverlocalland8useandtheirinfluenceoverplacementofnewdevelopmentrelativetotransitsystems.9

Contribution from Bioenergy 10

AcrossmostmodelsreviewedbyMorrisonetal.(2014),between4to15billiongallonsofgasoline11equivalent(BGGE)areavailablein2050,upfromabout1.0BGGEtoday.Mostmodelsmakesimple12assumptionsregardingthecarboncontentofbioenergy.Acrossthescenariosreviewed,bioenergy13accountsforamaximumofabout40percentoftransportationenergyin2050.Notalllong‐term14energymodelingassumesthatlargequantitiesofbiofuelsareneededinthetransportationsector.15TheWWSmodel,forexample,presentsavisionof2050withoutbioenergy,relyinginsteadon16batteryelectricityandhydrogenforthetransportationsector(Morrisonetal.2014).17

Non‐CO2 Emissions 18

Therelativecontributionofnon‐energyandHighGlobalWarmingPotential(HGWP)GHGstooverall19emissionslevelsislikelytoincreaseinthecomingdecades.Greenblatt(2014)andWeietal.(2013)20findthat,absentfurtherpolicy,theseemissionscouldexceedthe2050emissiongoalevenifallother21emissionsarezero(Morrisonetal.2014).22

Economic Impacts of Deep GHG Reductions 23

TheeconomicimpactofdeepGHGreductionsvariesgreatlyacrossthestudiesreviewedbothin24termsofwhatisassumedandofwhatisestimated.Forthosestudiesthatincludeanestimateof25technologycosts,theresultsvaryduetoassumptionsregardingtechnologyavailability,costs,26learningcurves,discountrates,andpolicyactions.Ingeneral,whileinitialtechnologyandenergy27infrastructureinvestmentcostsareexpectedtoincreaseinsomesectors,thestatewideinvestment28inenergyefficiencyisexpectedtoprovidefinancialsavingsthatcanbeinvestedbackintotheState29economy,providingoveralleconomicbenefits.Improvingenergyefficiencyalsoreducescoststothe30Statebyreducingtheneedtobuildnewpowerplantsornewrefineries(Morrisonetal2014).31

EstimatesofaveragecarbonmitigationcostindollarspertonofCO2e($/tCO2e),allconvertedto322013dollars)varybetweenmodels,acrosssectors,andovertime.Forexample,intheCA‐TIMES33mitigationcostsareestimatedbytechnologyandyear,andrangefrom‐$75/tCO2eto+$124/tCO2e34between2010and2050.Williamsetal.(2012)estimatedanaveragemitigationcostacrossfrom352010to2050of$90/tCO2e(Morrisonetal.2014).Forperspective,inCalifornia’scap‐and‐trade36program,pricessinceinceptionoftheprogramhaverangedfrom$12to$24/tCO2e.37

Valuableco‐benefits(e.g.,improvedairquality,healthbenefits,etc.)arenotcapturedinmanyof38theseestimates.Formodelsthatincludemacro‐economicfeedback,calculatenetsavings,orinclude39fullaccountingofsocialcosts,savingshavethepotentialtooffsetmostoralloftheincreased40technologycosts(Morrisonetal.2014).41



Page 25 March 2015

Case Study of Local 2050 “Gap Analysis:” Sonoma County 1

ICFInternational,workingfortheSonomaCountyRegionalClimateProtectionAuthority(RCPA),2hascompletedGHGinventories,forecasts,andfuturescenarioanalysisforSonomaCounty3jurisdictionsforpotentialcountyGHGemissionsfrom1990outto2050,aspartofRCPA’sClimate4Action2020initiative.5

1990and2010emissionsarebasedonGHGinventoriesforthoseyears.2020BAUemissionsare6basedontrendsinGHGemissionslocaltothecountyincludingthelocalandregionalGHGreduction7measuresalreadyinplaceby2010,aswellasontheeffectofadoptedStateemissionreduction8measures.Future2040and2050BAUGHGemissionsprojectionsarebasedonforecasted9population,employment,andothersocioeconomicfactorsbeyond2020butexcludeanyadditional10Statemeasuresbeyondthosealreadyadoptedandanylocalandregionalreductionmeasures.11

ICFconductedascenarioanalysisfor2040and2050usingtwodifferentreductionscenariosbased12ontheworkofGreenblatt(2013).ThefirstscenarioincludesonlycommittedStatepoliciesthathave13beenadoptedbasedonGreenblatt(2013)Scenario1.ThesecondscenarioincludesStatepolicies14thathavebeenconsideredbutarenotyetadopted,aswellaspotentialtechnologyandmarket15futuresbasedoncurrentproventechnologies,basedonGreenblatt(2013),Scenario3.Thesecond16scenariodoesnotrelyonanyunproventechnologiesorassumptionsaboutmarketsorpersonal17behavioralshiftsthatarethoughttobeinfeasible.18

AsshowninFigure1below,in2050,basedoncurrentcommittedStatepoliciesalone,Sonoma19Countywouldhaveemissionsapproximately20percentbelow1990levels,leavinganadditional6020percentreductiontoreachthe80percentbelow1990leveltarget.AsshowninFigure2below,in212050,basedonuncommittedStatepoliciesandassumptionsabouttechnologyandmarketfutures,22SonomaCountyjurisdictionswouldhaveemissionsapproximately65percentbelow1990levels,23leavinganadditional15percentreductiontoreachthe2050target.24

BasedonGHGreductionplanningexperiencewithlocalcitiesandCountiestodate,thelocalgap25beyondStatepoliciestomeettheAB322020targetisusuallysomewherebetween25and3326percent,dependingonthejurisdiction.WhattheSonomaCountyscenarioanalysisshowsisthatthe27localgapfor2050ishighlydependentonfutureState(and/orfederal)policyactionsaswellas28technologicaldevelopmentandmarketconditions,whichwillvarysubstantiallyfromcurrent29conditions.30

TheRCPAandSonomaCountyasawholeareexaminingaregionalgoalof25percentbelow199031for2020aspartofthecurrentClimateAction2020effort.InbothFigure1andFigure2below,the32“SonomaCountyPathto2050”showstheeffectoftheregionalgoalfor2020andthesubstantial33contributionsthatwillneedtobemadebylocalmeasurestomeetsuchagoal.Achievingsuchagoal34wouldplacetheCountyinabetterpositiononthepathtoward2050thanwouldsimplecompliance35withtheAB32goalof1990emissionlevelsby2020.36


Beyond 2020: The Challenge for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Planning by Local Governments in California Page 26

March 2015

1

2 3

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MT CO2e

Figure 1Sonoma County 1990 to 2050 GHG Emissions Scenario:

Committed State Policy Only(2040/2050 based on Greenblatt (2013) Scenario 1)

BAU With Committed Policies Sonoma County Path to 2050



Page 27 March 2015

12

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MT CO2eFigure 2

Sonoma County 1990 to 2050 GHG Emissions Scenario: Committed and Uncommitted Policies and Technology/Market Futures

(2040/2050 reductions based on Greenblatt (2013) Scenario 3)

BAUWith Committed +Uncommitted Policies+Technology/Market FuturesSonoma County Path to 2050



Page 28 March 2015

Post‐2020 Transportation Considerations 1

Regionalandlocaltransportationagenciesroutinelyengageintheanalysisofpost‐2020scenariosin2conjunctionwithlong‐rangeplanningefforts.RegionalagenciessuchasMetropolitanPlanning3Organizations(MPOs)planinfrastructure20to30yearsinadvanceusingavarietyofanalytical4tools.Theselong‐rangeinfrastructureplansarereflectedintheRTPsthatguidelong‐term5transportationinvestment.Localgovernmentagenciesengageinsimilarforecastsatthecity‐level6throughactivitiessuchasthepreparationofgeneralplans.7

Agenciespreparingtheselong‐rangeforecastsoftenfacethreechallenges,whichintroduceahigh‐8levelofuncertaintyintheprocess:9

Uncertaintyinthepreparationoflong‐termdemographicforecasts,whichareakeyinputinto10anylong‐rangetransportationforecasts.Populationandemploymentforecasting,particularly11atthecitywidelevel,oftenrequireassumptionswithahighpotentialforsubstantialerror.12

Uncertaintyregardingtransportationcosts,whichisakeyinputfortravelforecasting.Asan13example,onecansimplylookatthehistoryoffuelcostsoverthepast10years.In2008,the14nationalaveragegaspriceincreasedtoover$4pergallon,decreasinginthesubsequentyear15to$1.50,andthenincreasingtoalmost$4againin2011,withlate2014/early2015decreases16tocloseto$2,andafollowingsteadyincreaseingasprices.Giventhesechanges,itis17challengingforanyagencytoforecastoneofthemajorinputstowardstransportation18behavior.19

Uncertaintyregardingtechnologicalinnovation.Formuchofthepast100years,20transportationtechnologyhasbeenfocusedonautomobilesthataremanuallydriven.Within21thelast5years,therehavebeensubstantialinnovationsrelatedtotheuseoftechnologyfor22ridesharingthroughcompanieslikeUberandLyft.Theseridingsharingapplicationshavethe23potentialtoaffectdecisionstoownandoperateautomobiles.Anotherchangewithaneven24largerpotentialfordisruptionrelatestothedeploymentanduseofautonomousand25connectedvehicles.Allofthecurrentautomobilemanufacturersarecurrentlytesting26autonomousvehiclesforretailsale.TheVictoriaTransportationPolicyInstitute(VTPI)27predictsthatby2050nearlyhalfofthetotalvehiclefleetwillbeautonomousvehicles.This28changeisimportantsinceautonomousvehicleshavethepotentialtosubstantiallychange29travelpatternsandinfrastructureperformance.Autonomousvehicleshavethepotentialto30operatewithsubstantiallyreducedheadwaysandincreasedtravelspeeds,resultinginfar31greaterroadwaycapacities.32

Thetypicalapproachwithinatransportationstudywhenfacedwithuncertaintyistodevelopwell‐33reasonedanddocumentedassumptionsforallkeyinputvariables.Theseinputvariablesarethen34evaluatedusingrobustmathematicalmodelstoproducelong‐rangedemandforecasts.Thissame35generalapproachhasbeenappliedfor50years,butonlyrecentlyhaveplannersmadeasubstantial36efforttoverifytheaccuracyoftheirforecasts.Astudyofnearly100forecastsforroadway,tunnel,37andbridgeprojectscommissionedbyStandard&Poor(publishedinTrafficTechnology38International)determinedthatthetravelforecastsweregenerallyoffbyanaverageof20to2539percentwhencomparedtothepost‐constructiontrafficcounts(Bain2011).Insomeinstances,the40forecastswerelessthan80percentoftheobservedpost‐constructiontrafficvolumesbasedonthis41samestudy(Bain2011)42



Page 29 March 2015

Becauseoftheuncertaintynotedabove,itmaybetemptingtotreatpost‐2020transportation1forecastsinacursorymanner.Thisapproachcouldbejustifiedbycitingthechallengesand2difficultiesindevelopingreasonableforecasts,butitwouldbeanattempttosidestepuncertainty3ratherthanembraceit.Analternativeapproachwouldbetoembraceuncertaintythroughtheuseof4alternativescenariosthatreflectpossiblechangesinvariables.Ratherthangenerateasinglefuture5estimateoftraveldemand,astudywouldinsteadproducesomevariationofalow,medium,and6highforecast.Thisapproachwouldprovidearangeofresultswhichwouldessentiallybracket7potentialoutcomes.8

Implications of Post‐2020 Scenario Analysis for Local Climate Action Planning 9

2050scenarioanalysis,theSonomaCountycasestudy,andreviewoftransportationforecasting10challengessummarizedabovehighlightshowachievingdeepGHGemissionreductionsintheState11willrequireacoordinatedeffortacrossallsectorsoftheeconomy.Innearlyallthedeepreduction12scenarios,therateoftransition—suchasdeploymentofbettervehiclesorrenewableelectricity—13exceedthehistoricalratesofchangeintheState.14

Potentialratesofprogressoverall(aswellasbysector)varywidelyinthestudiescompletedto15date.Inaddition,thereareinherentuncertaintiesassociatedwithlong‐termforecasting.Thisadds16uncertaintyforlocaljurisdictionsseekingtounderstandtheirroleinGHGreductionsinacontextof17changingtechnologies,energy/technologyprices,economicconditions,andregulations.18

ThereisnouniformlyacceptedsourceforGHGforecastassumptionsandmethodology.Future19regulationsbeyondthoseadoptedtosupporttheAB32targetareuncertain,andthuslocal20jurisdictionsatthistimecanonlyguessattheactualregulationsthatmayormaynotbeadopted.21

Giventhisrangeofuncertainty,whichincreasesasoneproceedsfurtherinthepost‐2020period,22localGHGreductionplanningwillneedtoincludearangeofpotentialscenariosinorderto23understandthevaryingroleoflocalGHGreductionscomparedtothoseduetoStateandfederal24policy.25

Local Climate Action Planning Examples beyond 2020 26

ThereareanumberofjurisdictionsthathavealreadybegunplanningforGHGreductionsbeyond272020.Afewexamplesarepresentedbelow.28

San Diego County Climate Action Plan 29

SanDiegoCountyadoptedaCAPin2012thatincludedananalysisandGHGreductionmeasuresto30reduceCountyemissionsto17percentbelow2005levelsby2020(SanDiegoCounty2012).31AlthoughtheCAPhasbeenputonholdreflectingthecourtrulingintheCEQAlawsuitrelatedtothe32CAP,theanalysisintheCAPofemissionsoutto2035isillustrative.33

TheCAPincludedananalysisofGHGemissionsandreductionsoutto2035,astheCAPwasintended34toalsoaddressbuildoutoftheCounty’sgeneralplanoutto2035.TheCountydevelopedan35emissionstargetfor2035thatwouldputtheCountyonapathtowardthe2050goalof80percent36below1990levels,whichwouldbetheequivalentfortheCountyof49percentbelow2005levelsby372035.Similartothe2020analysis,theCountydevelopedaframeworkforreducingemissionsby382035thatworkedwithinthecontextoftheunincorporatedCounty.Themeasuresdevelopedforthe392020scenariowerealsousedinthe2035scenariobutwithincreasedratesofparticipation.The40



Page 30 March 2015

CAPassumesthattechnologywillimproveand/orwilllowerincost,makingmeasuresmorefeasible1foragreaterpercentageofthepopulation.Forexample,theresidentialbuildingretrofitmeasure,2whichassumedafeasibleparticipationrateof15percentby2020,wasincreasedto90percent3participationrateby2035.4

Assumingaggressivebutfeasiblegoals,thelocalactionsanalyzedbytheCountyshowedthatthey5couldachieveemissions14percentbelow2005levelsby2035.Whilethisdoesnotachievethe496percentbelow2005levelsreductiontarget,theassumptionsforthe2035scenarioincludedonly7currenttechnologyandexistingStateandfederalregulations.TheCAPdescribedthatStateand8federalactionsaccountformorethan55percentofthereductionsneededtoachievethe2020goal,9butsincetheyarefrozentoexistingactions,theyonlyaccountfor34percentofthereductions10neededtoachievethe2035goal.TheCAPidentifiesthatmeetingGHGreductiongoalsbeyond202011willrequireevengreaterparticipationinexistingmeasures,inclusionofadditionalmeasures,12guidancefromStateandfederalauthorities,additionalStateandfederalregulation,improved13technology,andinfrastructurechanges.TheCAPincludedanalternative2035scenarioanalysis(as14anappendix)todemonstratethatthe49percentreductiontargetcouldonlybemetwithadditional15federal,State,andlocalmeasures.Additionalmeasuresincludedachieving44milespergallon16averagefuelefficiencyamongallon‐roadvehicles(notjustnewmodelyears),a50percentRPS,and17retrofittingallpre‐2005residentialunitstoachieve35percentgreaterenergyefficiency.SanDiego18CountyintendstorevisittheCAPperiodically,andupdateandexpandbeyondtheadoptedmeasures19for2020overtimetosupportmeetingthe2035target.20

San Bernardino Regional Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan 21

Twenty‐onepartnershipcitiesinSanBernardinoCountyworkingthroughtheSanBernardino22AssociatedGovernments(SANBAG)collaboratedtocreatetheSanBernardinoRegionalGHG23ReductionPlan(SANBAG2014)thatincludedcustomizedGHGreductionplansforeach24participatingcitytoreachcity‐identified2020GHGreductiontargets.Collectively,theindividualcity25commitmentswouldresultintheregionreturningto1990emissions(approx.11.5MMTCO2e)or26lowerin2020.27

TheRegionalPlanalsoincludesrecommendationsforpost‐2020GHGreductionplanningand28action.Beginningin2018,itisrecommendedthatthepartnershipcitiesandSANBAGcommence29planningforthepost‐2020period.Atthispoint,thepartnershipcitieswouldhaveimplementedthe30firstphasesoftheirlocalCAPs,andwouldhaveabetterunderstandingoftheeffectivenessand31efficiencyofdifferentreductionstrategiesandapproaches.Thenewpost‐2020reductionplan32shouldincludeaspecifictargetforGHGreductionsforatleast2030,andifsupportedbylong‐term33planningattheStatelevel,shouldalsoincludepreliminaryplanningfor2040and2050.Thetargets34shouldbeconsistentwithbroaderStateandfederalreductiontargetsandwiththescientific35understandingofthereductionsneededby2050.Itisrecommendedthatpartnershipcitiesadopt36thepost‐2020reductionplanbyJanuary1,2020,whichwouldrequirecitiestostartanew37inventory/assessmentprocessby2017or2018atthelatest.38

Theregionalplanalsoincludedananalysisofemissiontrajectoriesfortheparticipatingcitiesoutto392030.Tostayoncoursetowardthe2050target(2.3MMTCO2e),theregion’sGHGemissionsneed40tobereducedtoapproximately8.4MMTCO2eby2030.Thistranslatestoanaveragereductionof412.9percentperyearbetween2020and2030,oranadditional3.3MMTCO2einreductionsduring42theperiod2020to2030.Anadditionalchallengecomesfromthefactthatthepopulationinthe43region(sumofparticipatingcitiesconsideredinthisanalysis)willcontinuetogrowbetween202044



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and2030(estimatedpopulationgrowthinthestudyisfromapproximately1.73millionin2020to11.96millionin2030).Takingintoaccountpopulationgrowth,per‐capitaemissionswouldneedto2decreaseatanaveragerateofapproximately0.2MTCO2eperpersonperyearduringthe2020to32030period.ThemeasuresneededarelogicalexpansionsoftheprogramsrecommendedintheAB432ScopingPlanattheStatelevel,andthemeasuresincludedintheRegionalPlanatthelocallevel.5BybuildingonplannedStateeffortsduringthisperiod,andrampedupeffortsinthelocalbuilding6energyandtransportation(andother)sectorsonthepartofthelocalgovernments,theregioncan7beontracktoreacha2050goalthrough2030.8

AssumptionsaboutStateactionwerebasedonanARBscenarioanalysisfor2030includedinthe92008AB32ScopingPlan,asfollows:10

Expandvehicleefficiencyregulationstoachievea40percentfleet‐widepassengervehicle11reductionby2030(approximatelydoublethealmost20percentexpectedin2020).12

IncreaseCalifornia’suseofrenewableenergyinelectricitygeneration(beyondthe33percent13plannedfor2020).14

Reducethecarbonintensityoftransportationfuelsby25percent(afurtherdecreasefromthe1510percentlevelsetfor2020).16

Increaseenergyefficiencyandgreenbuildingefforts(sothatthesavingsachievedinthe202017to2030timeframeareapproximatelydoublethoseaccomplishedin2020).18

Usearegionalornationalcap‐and‐tradesystemtofurtherlimitemissionsfromthe85percent19ofGHGemissionsincappedsectors(TransportationFuelsandotherfueluse,Electricity,20Residential/CommercialNaturalGas,andIndustry).21

PartnershipcitiesinSanBernardinocandotheirparttobeontrackthrough2030tomeetthe205022goalbyimplementingthefollowing:23

Increaseenergyefficiencyandgreenbuildingefforts(forcitymunicipalbuildingsaswellas24privatebuildingsintheregion)sothatthesavingsachievedinthe2020to2030timeframe25areapproximately81percentthoseaccomplishedin2020.26

ContinuetoimplementlanduseandtransportationmeasurestolowerVMTandshifttravel27modes(assumedimprovementof8percentcomparedtotheunmitigatedcondition,whichis28withinSCAG’sassumedrangeof8to12percentofGHGreductionsfor2035).29

Capturemoremethanefromlandfillsreceivingregionalwaste,movebeyond75percentlocal30wastediversiongoalfor2020,andutilizelandfillgasfurtherasanenergysource.31

Continuetoimprovelocalwaterefficiencyandconservation.32

Continuetosupportandleverageincentive,rebate,andotherfinancingprogramsfor33residentialandcommercialenergyefficiency,andrenewableenergyinstallationstoshorten34paybackperiodandcostsandtodevelopprogramsthatencourageincreaseduseof35small‐scalerenewablepowerasitbecomesmoreeconomicallyfeasible.36

Theconceptualeffectsofthesestrategieswouldrepresentanapproximatedoublingofeffortfor37mostcitiesfromthatplannedattheStateandcitylevelfor2020.Intotal,themeasuresdescribed38abovewouldproducereductionstobringtheregion’sGHGemissionstoanestimated8.4MMTCO2e.39WhilethepotentialmixoffutureGHGreductionmeasurespresentedintheRegionalPlanscenario40analysisisonlyaconceptualexample,itservestodemonstratethatthecurrentmeasuresintheAB41



Page 32 March 2015

32ScopingPlanandtheRegionalPlancannotonlymovetheregiontoits2020goal,butcanalso1provideanexpandableframeworkformuchgreaterlong‐termGHGemissionsreductions.2

Examples from Outside California 3

NYC Pathways to Deep Carbon Reductions 4

NewYorkCity(NYC)hascommittedtoreduceitsGHGemissionsby30percentbelow2005levels5by2030(“30by30”)aspartofitslong‐termsustainabilityagenda,PlaNYC.Asof2013,emissions6havebeenreducedby19percentandthusthecityisapproximatelytwo‐thirdsofitswaytothe“307by30”goal.8

NYCconductedastudyofpotentialtoachievedeeplong‐termcarbonreductionsthatisfeasibleand9mindfulofeconomicimpacts(NYC2013).Thegoalofthestudywastoexamineifitwaspossibleto10achieveareductionto80percentbelow2005levelsby2050(“80by50”),andiffeasibletoidentify11thelowestcostpathwaysandhighestprioritynear‐termactionsneededtoreachthe2050goal.The12analysisfocusedonexistingandemergencytechnologiesratherthanfuturetechnologies.Thestudy13alsoassumednomeaningfulpriceoncarbonandacontinuedlackofcomprehensivefederalpolicy.14

Asummaryofthestudyresultsareasfollows:15

NewYorkCitycouldachieve“80by50”butitwouldbeexceptionallydifficult.16

Thiswouldrequirechangeatanunprecedentedandtechnologically‐untestedscale.17

Itwouldrequirelargeinvestmentsinenergyefficiency,cleanerenergysources,wholesale18transitiontolow‐carbontransportationtechnologies,andthetransformationofthesolid19wastesector.20

Uptotwo‐thirdsoftheinvestmentcouldbecosteffective,buttherestwouldyieldlittleto21nopayback.22

Marketbarrierswouldneedtobeovercomeeverystepoftheway.23

Actiononallfrontswouldbeneeded.24

Everysection,marketsegment,andtechnologyapplicationwouldrequireaction.25

Acceleratingnear‐termactionwouldincreasethelikelihoodofachieving“80by50.”26

Meetingthe2050targetwouldrequireconsistentprogressyear‐inandyear‐out.27

Meetingthe“30by30”target10yearsearlierin2020wouldputthecityonthetrajectoryto28meetthe2050target.29

Abatementpotentialfrom2050BAUemissionsweresplitamongmeasuresasfollows:30

newbuildingenergyefficiency(5percent);31

existingbuildingenergyefficiency(33percent);32

buildingfuelswitchfromfossilfuelstorenewableorlow‐carbonenergy(10percent);33

cleanpower(12percent);34

distributedgeneration(5percent);35



Page 33 March 2015

transportationreductionsthroughexpandedtransitandacceleratedadoptionofcleaner1technologiesforprivateandpublicvehicles(13percent);and2

solidwastereductionsthroughsourcereductiondiversion,recycling,andimprovedwaste3processinginfrastructure(7percent).4

Thestudydescribesthatalthoughitistheoreticallypossible,thecitycouldnotrealisticallyachieve5“80by50”byactingalone.Federaland/orregionalactionwouldbeneededtocreatealevelplaying6fieldandsendapricesignaltotheentiremarketplace.Unilateralactions,incontrast,couldcreate7marketdistortionsandinefficientoutcomes.Thestudyalsonotesthatthe“80by50”targetmaynot8betherightgoalforNewYorkCity,asitisalreadyfarmoreenergyefficientthanmostpartsofthe9UnitedStatesalready.10

United Kingdom Pathways to 2050 11

The2008ClimateChangeActintheUnitedKingdom(UK)establishedalegallybindingclimate12changetargettoreducetheUK’sGHGemissionsbyatleast80percent(fromthe1990baseline)by132050.14

TheUKgovernmentistryingtoachievethisreductionthroughactionnationallyandinternationally.15Movingtoamoreenergyefficient,low‐carboneconomywillhelpthemmeetthistarget.Itwillalso16helptheUKbecomelessreliantonimportedfossilfuelsandlessexposedtohigherenergypricesin17thefuture.18

TomakesurethatitsgovernmentpoliciescontributeeffectivelytoourGHGreductiontargets,the19UKis8:20

settingcarbonbudgetstolimittheamountofGHGstheUKisallowedtoemitoveraspecified21time;22

usingstatisticsonGHGemissionsandfurtherevidence,analysis,andresearchtoinform23energyandclimatechangepolicy;24

usingtheEuropeanUnionEmissionsTradingScheme(EUETS)todeliverasubstantial25proportionoftheUK’scarbonemissionreductionsbetween2013and2020;26

usingasetofvaluesforcarbontomakesureprojectandpolicyappraisalsaccountfortheir27climatechangeimpacts;and28

usingthe2050Calculatortoletpolicymakersandthepublicexplorethedifferentoptionsfor29meetingthe2050emissionsreductiontargets.30

TheUKisalsoseekingtoreducethedemandforenergybyhelpingpeopleandbusinessestouse31energymoreefficientlythroughthefollowingmeansby:32

reducingdemandforenergywithsmartmetersandotherenergy‐efficientmeasuresfor33industry,businesses,andthepublicsector;34

reducingemissionsbyimprovingtheenergyefficiencyofpropertiesthroughtheGreenDeal9;35

8Summaryfrom:https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/reducing‐the‐uk‐s‐greenhouse‐gas‐emissions‐by‐80‐by‐2050#background.



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providingincentivesforpublicandprivatesectororganizationstotakeupmoreenergy‐1efficienttechnologiesandpracticesthroughtheCRCEnergyEfficiencyScheme10;2

reducingGHGsandotheremissionsfromtransport;3

reducingGHGemissionsfromagriculture;and4

investinginlow‐carbontechnologies.5

Low‐carbontechnologieswillalsomakeanimportantcontributiontoUKGHGreductiontargets6throughthefollowingactions:7

takingactiontoincreasetheuseoflow‐carbontechnologiesandcreatinganindustryforCCS;8

reducingemissionsfromthepowersectorandencouraginginvestmentinlow‐carbon9technologiesbyreformingtheUK’selectricitymarket;10

providingover£200millionoffundingforinnovationinlow‐carbontechnologiesfrom201111to2015;and12

Publiclyreportingcarbonemissionsfrombusinessesandthepublicsector.13

Publicreportingofcarbonemissionshelpstoencourageorganizationstobecomemoreenergy14efficient,andenablesustoassesstheprogressthat’sbeingmadethrough:15

measuringandreportingenvironmentalimpacts;16

guidanceforbusinesses;and17

askingEnglishlocalauthoritiestomeasureandreporttheirGHGemissions.18

WhiletheUK,alongwithGermany,isoneoftheinternationalleadersinGHGreductionplanningon19anationallevel,eventheUKdoesnothaveadefinitiveplanforhowtoachievetheir2050target.As20notedabove,theDepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange(DECC)hascreatedakeyeducational21tool,the2050Calculator11,toallowdecisionmakers,thepublic,andstakeholderstoconducttheir22ownevaluationofpotentialpathwaysto2050.The2050Pathwaysworkpresentsaframework23throughwhichtoconsidersomeofthechoicesandtrade‐offstheUKwillhavetomakeoverthenext2440years.Itissystemwide,coveringallpartsoftheeconomyandallGHGemissionsreleasedinthe25UK.Itisrootedinscientificandengineeringrealities,lookingatwhatisthoughttobephysicallyand26technicallypossibleineachsector.ItallowsusersoftheCalculatortoexplorealltheavailable27optionsandsomeoftheirkeyimplications.28

ItisakeyrecommendationofthispaperthatCalifornianeedstocreatea2050CaliforniaCalculator29toinformCaliforniansastheyfacethecoming2050challenge.Furthermore,thispaperrecommends30

9TheGreenDealisanambitiousandlongterminitiativedesignedtoupgradetheenergyefficiencyofBritain’shomes.Itletshouseholdersandbusinessespaytowardsthecostofenergy‐savingimprovementstotheirproperties,overtime,throughsavingsontheirenergybills,usingsupplierstheycantrust10TheCRCEnergyEfficiencyScheme(orCRCScheme)isdesignedtoincentivizeenergyefficiencyandcutemissionsinlargeenergyusersinthepublicandprivatesectorsacrosstheUK,togetherresponsibleforaround10percentoftheUK’sgreenhousegasemissions.Participantsincludesupermarkets,watercompanies,banks,localauthoritiesandallcentralgovernmentdepartments11The2050Calculatorisavailableonlinehere:https://www.gov.uk/2050‐pathways‐analysis



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thatsuchacalculatorbepreparednotonlyfortheStateasawhole,butthatthemodelbeextended1toallowlocaljurisdictionstoexaminetheirlocalemissionsaswellusingdifferentscenarios.2

V. CEQA, General Plans, and Climate Action Plans for 3

the Post‐2020 Horizon 4

Nicole Vermillion, Placeworks; Rich Walter, ICF International; Dave Mitchell, First Carbon 5

CEQA Project Analysis in a Post‐2020 World 6

Forthepurposeofthissection,a“project‐level”analysisisconsideredananalysisforanyCEQA7projectwiththeexceptionofaCEQAdocumentpreparedforageneralplan.Thiswhitepaper8includesaseparatesectiononGHGemissionsanalysesforgeneralplanprojects.129

TheCEQAGuidelinesoffertwopathstoevaluatingGHGemissionsimpactsinCEQAdocuments.10

ProjectscantieroffaqualifiedGHGReductionPlan(CEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5).11

ProjectscandeterminesignificanceutilizingamodeltocalculateGHGemissionsandassess12thesignificance(CEQAGuidelinesSection15064.4).13

ThissectiondiscussespotentialchangesinCEQApracticeforthepost‐2020world.14

Tiering Off a Qualified GHG Reduction Plan 15

CEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5identifiesthatprogrammaticdocumentssuchasgeneralplans,16long‐rangedevelopmentplans,orseparateplans(e.g.,GHGreductionplans/CAPs)canbeprepared17byleadagenciestomitigatetheGHGemissionsimpactswithinajurisdiction.Ifajurisdictionhas18adoptedaqualifiedGHGReductionPlan,thenindividualCEQAprojectsthatareconsistentwiththe19GHGReductionPlanmayhavelessthansignificantGHGemissionsimpacts.20

Plansthatmeetthefollowingcriteriaaredefinedas“qualified”GHGreductionplans,eligibletobe21thebasisforCEQAstreamlining,asfollows:22

QuantifyGHGemissions,bothexistingandprojected,overaspecifiedtimeperiod,resulting23fromactivitieswithinadefinedgeographicarea;24

Establishalevel,basedonsubstantialevidence,belowwhichthecontributiontoGHG25emissionsfromactivitiescoveredbytheplanwouldnotbecumulativelyconsiderable;26

IdentifyandanalyzetheGHGemissionsresultingfromspecificactionsorcategoriesofactions27anticipatedwithinthegeographicarea;28

12Generalplansarealong‐rangeplanningtoolthattypicallygoesbeyondthetargetyearforAB32of2020.Inaddition,aleadagencymayintegratethegeneralplanwithaGHGreductionplan.Therefore,whilespecificplans,areaplans,andgeneralplansaretypicallytreatedas“program”levelCEQAdocumentsunderCEQAGuidelinesSection15168,CEQAsignificancethresholdshavebeendevelopedforgeneralplansseparatelyundera“plan‐level”approach.



Page 36 March 2015

Specifymeasuresoragroupofmeasures,includingperformancestandards,thatsubstantial1evidencedemonstrateswouldcollectivelyachievethespecifiedemissionslevel,if2implementedonaproject‐by‐projectbasis;3

Establishamechanismtomonitortheplan’sprogresstowardachievingthetargetlevel,andto4requireamendmentiftheplanisnotachievingspecifiedlevels;and5

Beadoptedinapublicprocessfollowingenvironmentalreview.6

Current CEQA Significance Thresholds Types 7

MethodologytoevaluateGHGemissionsimpactsinCEQAdocumentshaveevolvedconsiderably8sinceGHGemissionsbecameamandatorycomponentofenvironmentaldocuments.Yet,thereisno9singlestatewideuniformly‐appliedsignificancemetricusedbyCEQApractitionersforevaluating10GHGemissions.Rather,individualairdistrictsandotheragencies,primarilyinthelarger11metropolitanareas,haveofferedguidanceonhowtoaddressGHGemissionsimpactsinCEQA12documents.13

Althoughthereisnosinglemetricusedstatewide,therearecommonthemesutilizedbyair14districts/agenciestosubstantiatethesignificantthresholdsdeveloped.Ingeneral,therearethree15significancemetricsthathavebeendevelopedtoidentifythethresholdatwhichproject‐levelGHG16emissionsimpactsmaybesubstantial,andtherefore,significant:17

Bright‐LineThresholds.ThesearenumericthresholdsthatassesstotalGHGemissions18generatedbyaproject.Thebright‐linethresholdistypicallybasedona“capture”rateanda19gapanalysis,whichistiedbacktoAB32targetsataregionallevel.ProjectsthatgenerateGHG20emissionswhichexceedthisbright‐linethresholdaretypicallyconsideredtohavea21significantGHGemissionsimpact.Projectsthatfallunderit(withorwithoutmitigation)are22lessthansignificant.Thebright‐linethresholdcomparesthenetincreaseinproject‐related23emissionswithexistingconditions.Thebright‐linethresholddoesnotconsiderthepotential24efficienciesoflargeprojectsortheinefficienciesofsmallprojects.Asemissionsdeclinewith25implementationofGHGregulations,thenumberofprojectsbelowthebrightlinewillincrease.26

PerformanceBasedThresholds.Thesearequantitativethresholdsthatarebasedona27percentreductionfromafuture,projectedemissionsinventory,withoutanyGHGreduction28measurescomparedtothefuture,projectedemissionsinventorywithproject‐specificGHG29reductionmeasuresinplace.13BecausetheBAUscenarioisbasedona“future”condition,the30levelofsignificanceconclusionsarenotbasedontheincreaseinGHGemissionsfromexisting31conditions.However,thepercentreductionfromBAUconsidersthepotentialincreasein32efficiencyintegratedintoaproject’sdesignandoperation.Theperformance‐based33significancethresholdstemsfromtheGHGreductiontargetsofAB32,andtheinventory34and/ortargetsidentifiedintheAB322008ScopingPlan.35

EfficiencyThresholds.Thesearequantitativethresholdsthatarebasedonapercapita36efficiencymetric.Projectsthatattainthepercapitaefficiencytarget,withorwithout37mitigation,wouldresultinlessthansignificantGHGemissions.Theefficiencymetricis38typicallydefinedasa“servicepopulation”(SP),whichmeanspeoplewholiveandworkinthe39projectsite.TheefficiencymetricconsiderstheGHGreductionmeasuresintegratedintoa40

13Performance‐basedthresholdsvaryonaccountingforvariousfederalandStatepoliciesthatwouldresultinproject‐levelGHGreductions.SomeincludecertainfederalandStatemeasuresas“baseline”.



Page 37 March 2015

project’sdesignandoperation,andisbasedonthenetincreaseinemissions,butthe1significanceconclusionisnotbasedonthemagnitudeoftheincrease.Liketheperformance‐2basedthreshold,theefficiency‐basedsignificancethresholdalsostemsfromtheGHG3reductiontargetsofAB32,andtheinventoryand/ortargetsidentifiedintheAB3220084ScopingPlan.Mostindividualprojectsarenotmixed‐useandhenceoftenscorepoorlyin5termsofSPefficiency,eveninmixed‐usewalkableneighborhoods,unlesstheanalysis6accountsforthebenefitsfromneighboringexistingandplanneddevelopment.7

Asidentifiedabove,thetargetembodiedinAB32foryear2020isthemostcommonthreadamong8thesignificancethresholdsdeveloped.Consequently,whilequantitativesignificancecriteriadiffer9amongairdistricts/agenciesinCalifornia,thesignificancemetricsarederivedusingasimilar10methodology.11

Post‐2020 Considerations for CEQA Thresholds 12

CurrentCaliforniaguidanceandgoalsforreductionsinGHGemissionsaregenerallyembodiedin13ExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05andAB32.14

WhileEOS‐03‐05providesalong‐termgoalfortheStatefor2020,unlikeAB32,EOS‐03‐05isnota15Legislativeaction.Therefore,thelong‐termgoalfor2050identifiedinEOS‐03‐05hasnot,todate,16carriedthesameweightinproject‐levelCEQAanalysesbecausetheLegislaturehasnotdirectedthe17Statetoprovideaplantoreachthe2050goal,oraninterimgoal.Asnotedabove,thiswasakey18issueintheSANDAGCEQAlawsuit,whichfoundthattheSANDAGEIRshouldhaveassessedthe19project’simpactonmeetingtheEOS‐03‐052050goal.20

CEQAsignificancecriteriaforGHGemissionsforbothprojectsthatidentifysignificancebasedon21consistencywithaGHGreductionplan,andprojectsthatutilizethebright‐line,performance,or22efficiencysignificancethresholds,aremainlyderivedfromtheGHGreductiontargetembodiedinAB2332.However,AB32andtheAB32ScopingPlanonlyprovideastatewideplanforachievingthe24statewideGHGemissionstargetfor2020.WhileAB32istheonlyStatelegislatedreductiontarget,25theGHGthresholdsthatutilizetheAB32targetsarelikelytoremaindefensibleunderCEQA,unless26thereasoningintheSANDAGrulingbecomeswidespreadpractice.27

Inordertodeveloppost‐2020GHGsignificancethresholds,theLegislaturewouldneedtodirectthe28Statetoidentifyaninterimgoal,anddraftandimplementaplantoachieveit.Thispost‐2020plan29wouldbeacriticaltoolinthedevelopmentofpost‐2020GHGreductiontargets.14Withoutthistool,30itwouldbedifficultforleadagenciestosubstantiatepost‐2020GHGsignificancecriteria.31Regardless,atsomepointtheproject‐levelCEQAsignificancethresholdutilizedbyleadagencieswill32needtobeupdatedtoaddresspost‐2020targetsbecausethecurrentsignificancethresholdsfor33GHGemissionsimpactsandGHGreductionplansareprimarilybasedon2020targets.Thelogical34timingforupdatingthresholdswillbewhentheStateadoptsitsfirstpost‐2020legislatedreduction35target.36

14SenateBill32(Pavley),AssemblyBill(AB)33(Quirk),andAB21(Perea)willbeconsideredinthe2015‐2016legislativesession.Asintroduced,thesebillsproposetorequireARBtoapproveastatewideGHGemissionlimitthatisequivalentto80percentbelowthe1990leveltobeachievedby2050andauthorizeARBtoadoptinterimGHGemissionsleveltargetstobeachievedby2030and2040.



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CEQA GHG Analysis Should Change in Concert with State GHG Reduction 1Planning 2

InordertoidentifyhowtobestanalyzeGHGemissionsgoingforwardfrom2015,itisusefulto3reviewhowCEQAGHGanalysishasdevelopedsince2006.4

AChaoticBeginning:FromAB32(2006)totheAB32ScopingPlan(2008)5

WiththepassageofAB32in2006,CEQAanalysesincreasinglybegantoconsiderGHG6emissions,butthemethodofanalysiswassomewhathaphazard,inconsistent,andoften7withoutanyframeworkfordeterminingsignificanceordevelopingmitigation.8

SomeearlyGHGreductionplandevelopers,includingSanFrancisco(2004)andMarin9County(2006),pioneeredclimateactionplanningbutoutsideofacontextofconnecting10CAPstoCEQA.11

PractitionersstartedtoevaluateoptionsforCEQApracticethroughtheAEPWhitePaper12(2007),theCAPCOAWhitePaper(early2008),conferencepresentations,andother13methods.14

CreatingtheNewNormal:FromtheAB32ScopingPlan(2008)toSB97(2010)15

TheadoptionoftheAB32ScopingPlanin2008,withaspecificallyarticulatedroleforlocal16jurisdictionsinGHGemissionsreductionsandaframeworkofStatereductions,solidifieda17foundationforbothCEQAanalysisandlocalclimateactionplans.18

UsingthepriordevelopmentofmethodsintheAEPandCAPCOAwhitepapers,CEQAGHG19analysisbecamemuchmorewidespread,andmoreandmoreCAPsweredevelopedand20begantobeseenasanalternativepathtoCEQAcompliance.21

KeylawsuitswerefiledcallingforGHGanalysis,includingtheSanBernardino(2008)and22Stockton(2008)generalplans.23

SolidifyingthePractice:FromSB97(2010)to“AB32+1”24

TheadoptionofSB97resolvedanylingeringdoubtsastowhetherGHGanalysiswas25requiredunderCEQA,andappellatecourtrulingsconfirmedthisconclusion.26

Thresholdswerefurtherdevelopedandadoptedbymanyairdistricts,includingBAAQMD27(2010),SJVAPCD(2010)andothers.28

CAPsweredevelopedinmanyjurisdictionsthroughoutCalifornia.Theuseofthresholdswas29upheldincourtrulings.GHGanalysisbecameuniversalforCEQAdocumentsandCAPs30becameincreasinglyusedforCEQAtiering.31

HowthentoanalyzeGHGemissionsinCEQAdocumentsforthepost‐2020world?Pragmatically,32thiscanbebrokendownintoseveraldifferenteras,asfollows:33

TheUncertainInterim:FromSanDiegoRulings(2014)to“AB32+1”tothe“AB32+1”34ScopingPlan35

CEQAGHGanalysispracticeisnowenteringanotherperiodofchange.TheSanDiegorulings36haveintroducedthequestionofpost‐2020analysis.TheLegislatureisconsideringthenext37setofStateGHGreductiontargets.38



Page 39 March 2015

Forgeneralplansandmulti‐phaselargeprojectswithpost‐2020phaseddevelopment,CEQA1analysesneedtotakeintoaccountconsistencywith2020/AB32basedframeworks,but2theymustalsoanalyzetheconsequencesofpost‐2020GHGemissionsintermsoftheir3impactsonthereductiontrajectoryfrom2020toward2050.Asignificancedetermination,4asarguedinthispaper,shouldbebasedonconsistencywith“substantialprogress”alonga5post‐2020trajectory,butshouldnotbebasedonmeetingthe2050target.6

CEQAanalysisformostlanduseprojectscancontinuetorelyonthecurrentthresholdsand7currentCAPswith2020horizonsfortheimmediatefuture,especiallyifthereisactionby8theStateLegislatureandARBinthenextfewyears.Thecloserwecometo2020without9legislativeandARBactiononthepost‐2020targetsandplanning,themoreCEQAproject10analysiswillneedtoanalyzepost‐2020emissionsconsistentwith“substantialprogress”11alongapost‐2020reductiontrajectorytowardmeetingthe2050target.12

TheNextNormal:With“AB32+1”anda“AB32+1”ScopingPlan13

WhentheLegislatureadoptsapost‐2020targetandARBdevelopsadetailed,specific,and14feasiblescopingplanaddressingtheadoptedtarget,anewframeworkwillbeestablished15forCEQAGHGanalysisthatissimilartowhatexistsinrelationtoAB32andthe202016reductiontarget.17

CEQAGHGanalyseswillneedtobecompletedusingthresholdsbasedonthenewpost‐202018target.19

CEQAtieringofGHGanalysiswillneedtocomefromCAPsthatareconsistentwiththe20adoptedpost‐2020target.21

CEQAGHGanalysisofgeneralplans(andlargemulti‐phasedprojectswithlong‐termfuture22horizons)willneedtoanalyzehorizonsbeyondtheadoptedtarget.23

TheFuture:A2050LegislatedTargetanda2050TargetScopingPlan24

TheLegislaturemayadopta2030targetinthenearterm,butwillalsolikelyadopta205025target,atsomepoint.26

Inthenear‐term,anyARBscopingplanformeetinga2050targetwilllikelybeageneral27phasedapproachthatwillnotconstituteadetailed,specificandfeasibleplanofactionsuch28asthatinthecurrentAB32ScopingPlan.LackingsuchaStateplanofactionfor2050,CEQA29GHGanalysesshouldbebasedonevaluatingprojectemissionsinlightofthehorizonofState30actionplanning(whichmaybelessthan2050),and,asnecessary,basedonevaluationof31“substantialprogress”towardlonger‐termreductiontargets.32

Intime,ARBwilldevelopafeasibleandspecificplanofactionfor2050,thoughitmaybe33yearsincoming.Atthatpoint,CEQAGHGanalysiswillneedtochangeagaininordertobe34basedonfullyevaluatingprojectemissionsforconsistencywitha2050planofaction.35

General Plans in a Post‐2020 World 36

Generalplansoftenhaveroughly20yearplanninghorizons;socontemplatingtheneedforpolicy37actionstwodecadesinthefutureisnotnewtoCaliforniaplanners.Somegeneralplansalready38includepost‐2020actionstoreduceGHGemissionswithintheirlocaljurisdiction.Manyrecently39adoptedgeneralplans,forexample,includesubstantiallandusepolicyframeworksdesignedto40reduceVMTbypromotinginfilldevelopment,TOD,transit,andalternativestovehicletravelsuchas41



Page 40 March 2015

bicycleandpedestrianlinkages.LanduseapproachestoreducingVMTarebytheirnaturelong‐term1effortsthatwill,inmostcases,deliveronlysmallabsolutereductionsintheshortrun(e.g.,by2020),2butcandelivermuchmoresubstantialVMTreductionsinthelongerterm(e.g.,by2035).The3generalplanisabsolutelyessentialtoGHGreductionstrategiesthatinvolvelanduseformand4spatialplanning,andlong‐termtransportationplanning.Somerecentgeneralplanshaveincluded5theadoptionofaCAPaspartofanupdate,andothershaveincludedaGHGreductiontargetand6havecalledforadoptionofaCAPtomeetthelocallyadoptedreductiontargetbyadatecertain.7Conversely,someCAPscallforrevisionstolocalgeneralplansinordertoimplementCAP‐related8GHGemissionreductionstrategies.9

Whiletherehasn’tbeenamandatoryrequirementtoconsiderclimatechangeingeneralplansfrom10theState’sGeneralPlanGuidelinestodate(althoughthismaychangesoon),CEQAchallengesto11generalplanEIRshavecreatedpressuretoincludeconsiderationofGHGemissionsthroughboth12policymeasuresandtargetsettingingeneralplans,and/orviarequirementstodothesamethrough13developmentofaCAP.14

Inthepost‐2020period,therewillbeincreasingpressuretoincludeambitiouspoliciestoreduce15GHGemissionswithingeneralplans,withthegreaterreductioneffortnecessarytoachievelong‐16termreductiontargetsbeyondAB32.Givenpasthistory,itislikelythatpressuregroupswill17continuetouseCEQAlawsuits,GHGemissions,andtheneedforlong‐termreductionstogain18leverageinanattempttoforcelocaljurisdictionstomodifygeneralplans..Asweshiftfrom202019targetsto2030targetsandbeyond,manydifferentstakeholderswillbelookingtogeneralplansto20ensurethatlanduseplanningreflectscontemporaryStatetargetmilestonesforGHGemissions.21

Optimalplanninghappensinasocialandcommunitycontextinwhichthepublic,planners,22stakeholders,anddecision‐makerscanaddressissuesofbroadconcerninabalancedway.CEQA23lawsuitscaneffectivelydistortthatdelicatebalancingprocessbyintervenersattemptingtogaina24broader,oftenpolitical,outcomethatareoutsideofthescopeandcapacityoftheplanningprocess.25Thispapertakesthepositionthatplanningisbestdonefreeofsuchpressure.Inordertokeep26generalplansfocusedondoingthehardworkofplanningforthefuture,therecommendations27belowseektoreasonablylimitthehorizonofGHGanalysisunderCEQA.Ifthisproposedchange28wereputintoeffect,itwouldenablegeneralplanstofocusonrealisticandachievablereduction29timeframesandtargets,ratherthanspendingunproductivetimeengagedinspeculativeexercises30aboutthedistantfuture.31

Climate Action Plans in a Post‐2020 World 32

CAP Target Setting 33

Thelocaltargetsettingprocessfor2020hasprovidedimportantlessonsthatcanbeappliedto34settingfuturetargets.MostCAPshaveincludedtargetsfor2020,andsomediscussreductionsto35achieveatrajectorytoward2050;buttheprimaryfocusonidentifyingreductionmeasureshasbeen36on2020.EarlytargetsadoptedpriortotheAB32ScopingPlancompletionin2008weregenerally37overlyoptimisticabouttheamountofreductionsthatwouldbeachievedbythosejurisdictions.38ChangestoCEQAadoptedbyOPRin2010provideguidanceforusingCAPsforCEQAstreamlining39andforaddressingGHGemissionsinCEQAdocuments.Legalchallengesanddecisionsongeneral40planandproject‐levelCEQAdocumentshaveprovidedsomeguidance,butwithsometimes41contradictoryresults.Thefollowingdiscussionattemptstobringsomeclaritytohowtomove42beyond2020.43



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The2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdatestatesthefollowing:1

“Localgovernmentreductiontargetsshouldchartareductiontrajectorythatisconsistent2with,orexceeds,thetrajectorycreatedbystatewidegoals.Improvedaccountingand3centralizedreportingoflocalefforts,includingemissionsinventories,policyprograms,and4achievedemissionreductions,wouldallowCaliforniatofurtherincorporate,andbetter5recognize,localeffortsinitsclimateplanningandpolicies.”6

Achievingareductiontrajectorythatisconsistentwithorexceedsastatewidetrajectoryisnota7straightforwardprocess.Thecircumstancesineachcommunitycanvaryduetodifferinggrowth8rates,climate,existingbuiltenvironment,economichealth,andlocalpolitics.TheSB375Regional9Targetsprocesstooklocalcircumstancesintoaccountandresultedinawiderangeoftargetsfor10areasaroundtheState.11

Currently,itisextremelydifficultforaleadagencyorprojecttoachievealocalpost‐2020targetin12theabsenceofastatewideplantoachieveapost‐2020target.WhilethereareGHGreductionplans13thatdoincludeapost‐2020target,thoseemissionsreductionsaresubjecttouncertaintyand14speculationabouttheamountofreductionsthatcanbeattributedtoStateandfederalreductions15beyond2020.Intheabsenceofapost‐2020targetpassedbytheLegislature,thequestionthatwill16becomeincreasinglyimportantforGHGreductionplanningiswhethershowingprogresstoachieve17post‐2020goalsissufficient,orwhethertheGHGreductionplanmustactuallyachievethepost‐182020targeteveninabsenceofaStatelegislativetargetorplanforaparticularmilestone.Thelogical19stepsinsettingpost‐2020TargetsforCAPsareto:20

Prepareabaselineinventory.21

ForecastGHGemissionsforfuturemilestoneyearsbasedongrowthforecastsforthe22community.23

IdentifyreductionsfromexistingregulationssuchasTitle24,theRPS,PavleyI/Advanced24CleanCars,andtheLCFSthatapplytoprepareanadjustedforecastwithStatemeasures.25Includefederalactions(suchasCAFEfleetvehiclestandards)whereappropriate.26

Determinepotentialreductionsfromcurrentscopingplanmeasureswithadefinitiveschedule27foradoptioninthenear‐termfuture.Scopingplanprogramswithoutareasonablecertainty28forimplementationbyadatecertainshouldnotbeincluded.29

DeterminethedifferenceinemissionsbetweenthecurrentlegislatedStatetarget(s)15andthe30adoptedandplannedStateregulations.Thisnumberistheamountofreductionsneededfrom31eitheradditionalunplannedStateregulationsorlocalmeasures.32

Identifythefeasiblestrategiesandmeasuresavailabletoclosethegap,afterconsideringthe33benefitsofregulationsonthefutureyearemissioninventory.Notethatmoredistant34milestoneyearsarelikelytoproducealargergapbecausetheeffectofcurrentregulations35maybeoffsetpartiallyorentirelybytheemissionsresultingfromcumulativeeconomicand36populationgrowthovertime.37

15ThecurrentlegislatedStatetargetisfor2020fromAB32.ThenextlikelylegislatedStatetargetwillbefor2030.TheExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05includesatargetfor2050thatshouldalsobeconsideredbutitisanargumentofthiswhitepaperthatCAPsdonotnecessarilyneedtoachievea2050targettoqualifyfortieringunderCEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5ortosupportaless‐thansignificantfindingunderCEQA.Instead,thispaperarguesthat“substantialprogress”towardpost‐2020GHGreductionsshouldbethethresholdforbothtieringandlessthansignificantfindings.



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Thereductionfromfeasiblestrategiesandmeasuresmayormaynotexceedtheamount1requiredtoclosethegapwiththelegislatedStatetarget(s).2

DifferentCAPTargetapproachesarereviewedbelowinlightofpost‐2020considerations.3

Percentbelow1990Approach.Atpresent,themostclearlyconsistenttargetwithAB32is41990emissionsby2020.Inthepost‐2020period,consistencywithStatetarget(s)willdepend5onhowtheStatedecidestoarticulatepost‐2020targets.IftheStateadoptsa“percentbelow61990”basis(suchas30or40percentbelow1990by2030),thenlocaljurisdictionscould7identifythesamepercentagebelowtheirown1990jurisdictionalemissionsastheirCAP8target.9

PercentbelowAlternativeBaselineApproach.Manyjurisdictionsdonothave199010inventoriesandhavebeenusing“proxy”inventoryyearsasabaseline,withanalternative11reductiontargettoprovidethefunctionalequivalentofreducingto1990emissionslevels.For12example,theoriginal2008AB32ScopingPlanidentifiedagoalforlocaljurisdictionsto13reduceemissionsby15percentbelow“current”(usuallydefinedas2005–2008emissions)14levelstosupporttheAB32goalofreaching1990emissionsby2020.Thus,jurisdictionsthat15haveusedanon‐1990baselineinventorywillneedtocalculatetheadditionalreductions16neededtoreachapost‐2020reductiontarget.Forexample,ifacity’s2005inventorywas17500,000metrictonsofCO2e,andtheircurrentCAPtargetwas15percentbelow2005levels,18thenthe“proxy”1990emissionslevelwouldbe425,000MTCO2e.Assuminganewstatewide19reductiontargetis30percentbelow1990levels,thentheexamplecity’s2030targetcouldbe20297,500MTCO2e(40.5percentbelowthecity’s2005emissions).21

Percentbelow2020Approach.Asnotedabove,manyjurisdictionsdon’thavea199022inventorybuthaveadoptedareductiontargetfor2020intheircurrentCAPthatisconsidered23functionallyequivalentto1990emissions.Ifthatrationaleissufficientlygrounded,thena24post‐2020reductiontargetcouldbeusedinfutureCAPupdates.Usingourexamplecityfrom25above,with2005emissionsof500,000MTCO2eanda2020reductiontargetof425,00026MTCO2ethatispresumedequivalentto1990emissions,thena2030targetcouldbe3027percentbelowthe2020target,or297,500MTCO2e.28

PercentbelowFutureBusinessasUsual(BAU)Approach.29

TherehasbeenconfusionregardingtheconceptofBAUemissionforecasts(andtargets30basedonreductionsfromBAU)amongagenciesandoppositiongroupsinvolvedwith31generalplansandCAPs.BAUforecastsareusedbyARBindevelopingcriteriapollutant32emissioninventoriesforAirQualityAttainmentPlans.BAUrepresentsemissionsforecasts33forprojectedgrowthwithoutthereductionsexpectedfromtheimplementationof34regulations.ARBappliedthisconceptintheAB32ScopingPlan.35

ThebenefitofaBAUanalysisisthatitclearlyshowstheimpactofgrowth,andtheamount36ofreductionsrequired,tooffsetgrowthandreachtheemissiontargetlevel.Thepercentage37reductionfromBAUrequiredtoachieveAB32targetshasbeenusedinmanyCAPsto38demonstrateconsistencywithAB32.CAPsthatshowemissionreductionsfromBAUatleast39asgreataswhatisrequiredbytheStateareconsideredconsistentwithAB32.40

UsingaBAUapproachbeyond2020willrequireanewScopingPlanwithStatetargetsthat41willbedeterminedincomingyears.StateLegislationiscurrentlybeingintroduced16that42

16SB32(Pavley),AB33(Quirk),andAB21(Perea).



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wouldsettargetsfor2030,2040,and2050,andwouldrequireARBtoupdatetheScoping1Plantoidentifyastrategytoachievethenewtargets.AnewstatewideBAUforecastwould2bedevelopedandthepercentreductionfromBAUnecessarytomeetanewStatetarget3couldthenbedetermined.ThisnewpercentagereductioncouldbeappliedtolocalGHG4forecaststodevelopnewpost‐2020CAPtargets.5

OneproblemwiththeBAUapproachcanbecharacterizedas“targetshift.”Astimepasses6andnewregulationsareimplemented,theamountofreductionrequiredtoachievethe7originalpercentagereductionfromBAUisreduced.Forexample,in2020,a40percent8reductionfrom2030BAUmayberequired,butin2025newregulationsandtheretirement9ofhigheremittingequipmentmayachievea20percentreductionfrom2030BAU.10Thereforein2025,alocalplanwouldneedtodeliveronlythereductionof20percentfrom112030BAU.Tokeepastabletarget,onemustmaintainthesamestartingyearuntilnew12targetsareadoptedbytheState.Otherwise,newtargetswouldneedtobedeterminedevery13yearbasedonprogressinimplementingregulationsineffectuptothatpoint.Aslongasthe14calculationsusedtodetermineprogressaretransparent,afixedpastyearbaselineisthe15simplestapproach.However,aperiodicCAPupdatebasedonprogressreportedinState16ScopingPlanupdatesispreferabletomoreaccuratelydefineandaccountfortheamountof17reductionthatremainstobeachieved.18

Climate Action Plan GHG Reduction Measures for a Post‐2020 World 19

BelowwereviewsomeconsiderationsforlocalGHGemissionsreductionmeasuresinthepost‐202020period.Thisisnotacomprehensivereviewofpotentialreductionmeasures,butisratherintended21togiveanideaofseveraldifferentstrategiesthatcanbeappliedinapost‐2020world.22

Building Energy Sector 23

Thebuildingenergysectorisnormallythesecondlargestemissionsectoraftermotorvehiclesin24cityGHGemissioninventories.Reductionsfromthebuildingenergysectorareobtainedthrough25increasedenergyefficiencyandthroughtransitiontoenergysourceswithlowerGHGemission26intensities.27

Energy Efficiency 28

Programs to Exceed State Energy Efficiency Standards for New Development 29

OneoftheprimarymeasuresencouragedbytheStateforlocalgovernmentimplementationisto30requirenewdevelopmenttoexceedStateenergyefficiencystandards.Whilethismeasureis31commendable,citiesadoptingitmustbepreparedfornearlycontinuousupdatestomatchthe32State’supdateschedule,ortoconsideritonlyatemporarymeasurependingthenextState33standardsupdate.34

FactorsforlocalgovernmentstoconsiderinadoptingregulationsthatgobeyondStateregulations35include:36

Willbuildersbeabletomeettheefficiencylevelssetbythelocalgovernmentpolicyor37regulation?CECistighteningenergyefficiencyregulationseverythreeyears,soitisdifficult38togetaheadoftheregulationsforanylengthoftime.CECconductsanextensivefeasibility39assessmentwhenitadoptsnewregulationsandworkscloselywithindustrytoensurethat40changestostandardscanbeimplementedwithoutundueburdenanddisruptions.41



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AdoptionofZNEwilleventuallylimitlocalopportunitiesforadditionalreductions.The1CPUCandCECareworkingtowardrequirementsfornewresidentialbuildingsachievingZNE2consumptionstartingin2020.OnceZNEisachieved,therewillbelimitedopportunitiesfor3localgovernmentstorequireresidentialdevelopmenttogobeyondStatestandards.TheCPUC4andCECareworkingtowardZNEforcommercialbuildingsby2030,thusfrom2020to20305theremaybemorelocalopportunitiesforreductionsinthecommercialsector.6

Doesthecityhaveresourcestotrainstaffoncomplyingwithitsownstandardsthatare7differentfromthoseofTitle24?WillcompliancesoftwaredevelopedforTitle24be8transferrabletothelocalprogram?WithTitle24beingupdatedabouteverythreeyears,isthe9citywillingtoupdateitsstandardsonthesameschedule,orwillexceedingTitle24bea10temporarymeasurependingthenextStateupdate?11

Communitiesmustconsiderwhethertheyareplacingthemselvesatacompetitive12disadvantageforattractinghighGHGproducingdevelopment.TheUniformBuildingCode13helpsprovidealevelplayingfieldforbuildingstandardsincludingthosethatrelatetoenergy14efficiency.Communitieswithhotrealestatemarketsmaybeabletopushtheenvelope15towardsefficiencybecauseitiseasierfordeveloperstoabsorbcapitalcostsinanescalating16market.Conversely,energyefficiencywillprovidevaluetowhoeverispayingtheutilitybills,17sotheextenttowhichenergyefficiencyisreflectedinpropertyvaluesisanimportantfactor.18IfallnearbycommunitiesarepushingtheenvelopebeyondcurrentTitle24minimumsaspart19oftheirCAPs,thentheycouldavoidartificialdistortionsintheirregionalbuildingmarket.20

Onesizedoesn’tfitallcommunities.Californiacoastalcommunitieshavemilderclimates21requiringrelativelylowamountsofenergyforheatingandcooling.InlandareasofCalifornia22havehottersummersandcolderwintersandcommensuratelyhigherenergyconsumptionfor23coolingandheating.Locationswithhighenergyusehavefasterpaybacksonenergy24conservationinvestmentscomparedtoplaceswithmilderclimates.25

Buildingenergytechnologyischangingquickly.TheStateispursuingtechnology‐forcingregulations26thatareanticipatedtospeedimplementationofnewtechnologies.Althoughindustryconsistently27complainsthathigherstandardswillbeimpossibletomeet,whenitcomestimeforimplementation28thetechnologyisnearlyalwaysreadyforthemarketatalowercostthanwasestimatedwhenthe29regulationwasadopted.30

ThebottomlineisthatstrivingtoachievegreaterenergyefficiencyispartofanyGHGpost‐202031reductionstrategy,butgiventherelativelyrapidshifttowardZNErequirementsfornewbuildings,32thisisastrategythatwillhavediminishingnetreturnsas2030approaches.33

Energy Efficiency Retrofit Programs for Existing Development 34

Theexistingbuiltenvironmentcurrentlyprovidesalargepotentialsourceofemissionreductionsin35Californiacities.Existinghomesandbusinesseshaveopportunitiestoimproveenergyefficiencyby36incorporatingnewtechnologieswhenremodelingorwhenreplacingagingequipment.Insome37cases,energysavingscanjustifyenergyefficiencyupgradeswhilecurrentsystemsarestill38functional.39

TherehavebeensubstantialretrofiteffortsacrossCaliforniathroughprogramslikeCalifornia40EnergyUpgradeandotherlocal,regional,andStateefforts.Whiletheseprogramshaveresultedin41implementationofseveral“low‐hangingfruit”strategiessuchaslightingreplacements,there42remainsasubstantialportfolioofpotentialretrofitsstilltobeused.43



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ContinuedeffortstoincorporatethecostofGHGemissionsintothepriceofenergy(electricity,1naturalgas)throughtheCaliforniacap‐and‐tradesystemwillhelpindividualconsumerstobetter2accountforthetotalsocialcostsofGHGemissions,whichhavenotbeenadequatelyincludedin3energypricesinthepast.Thus,therewilllikelybecost‐effectiveretrofitsinthepost‐2020world4thatmaynotexisttoday.5

Afurtherconsiderationforthepost‐2020buildingsectoristhatwiththehighlyambitiousZNE6strategiesfornewdevelopment,therecouldbeawideningdivergencebetweennewdevelopment7andexistingdevelopment,intermsofbuildinguserenergycosts.Thiscouldaddmarketpressureon8existingdevelopmentthatwouldsupportdemandformoreenergy‐efficiencyretrofits.9

Renewable Energy 10

Thesecondpartofanybuildingenergyemissionsreductionstrategyisthesupplysideofenergy.11LocalgovernmentscanconsidermeasuresthatsupportswitchingtolowerGHGintensityfuelsor12renewableenergyforelectricitytohelpmeetpost‐2020targets.13

Fuel Switching for Building Heat 14

Accordingthe2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdate,meetingalong‐term2050goalwillrequireeventual15transformationoftheenergysourcesforheatingusedbynearlyallhomesandbusinessesin16California.NaturalgasiscurrentlythepreferredfuelforheatingmoststructuresinCaliforniadueto17itsrelativelylowcostandhighefficiency.Over80percentoftheenergyusedinnaturalgasheaters18isconvertedtousableheatduringcombustionincentralheatingapplications.19

Theemissionsassociatedwithelectricheaters,althoughconsidered100percentefficientin20generatingheat,areimpactedbytheefficiency(orinefficiencies)ofthepowerplant(andits21associatedemissions),aswellasbytransmissionanddistributionlosses.Electricityforspace22heatinghasnotachievedsubstantialmarketsharebecauseithasbeenmorecostlytooperatethan23naturalgas.AccordingtotheUSDOEHeatingFuelComparisonCalculator,thefuelpriceofelectricity24averages$35.14permillionBtu,whilenaturalgascosts$10.02permillionBtu.Thisisamajor25constrainttopotentialfuelswitchingtoelectricheating.26

Forclimateswithmoderateheatingandcoolingneeds,heatpumpsofferanenergy‐efficient27alternativetofurnacesandairconditioners.Likearefrigerator,heatpumpsuseelectricitytomove28heatfromacoolspacetoawarmspace,makingcoolspacescoolerandwarmspaceswarmer.29Heatingandcoolingseasonsalternatebetweenmovingairfromtheinsidetotheoutsideofhomes,30orvice‐versa,asneeded.Becausetheymoveheatratherthangenerateheat,heatpumpscanprovide31equivalentspaceconditioningataslittleasonequarterofthecostofconventionalheatingor32coolingappliances.Asaresult,thismaybeastrategythatisincreasinglyusedforemissions33reduction.34

Furthermore,asthegridcontainsmoreandmorerenewablefractions,andascap‐and‐trade35increasinglyinternalizesGHGemissioncosts,thepricedifferentialbetweenelectricalheatingand36naturalgasheatingislikelytogetsmaller.Atpresent,withtherelativelylargedisparityincost,37large‐scalefuelswitchingdoesnotappeartobeafeasibleshort‐termstrategyandisnotincludedin38mostCAPdocuments.HoweverwithapproachingZNErequirementsinthe2020to2030period,39changingenergyprices,andanever‐decreasingGHGintensityinCaliforniaelectricity,fuelswitching40couldbeaviablestrategyinthepost‐2020period.41



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Utility‐Scale and Distributed Renewable Energy 1

TheStatehasaprimaryroleinincreasingtherenewableportfoliointhemajorelectricalutility2powergenerationmix.GovernorBrownhascalledforincreasingthecurrent33percentRPS3standardtoa50percentstandardfor2030,andlegislationisbeingdevelopedin2015toimplement4suchastandard.Thus,theStateisexpectedtocontributesubstantiallytoincreasedreductionsin5buildingenergyemissions.6

Somejurisdictions,suchascitiesinMarinCountyandSonomaCounty,havedecidedtoand7implementcommunitychoiceaggregation(CCA),whichgiveslocaljurisdictionscontrolovertheir8electricitysupplychoice.WhereCCAisdeterminedtobeviable,thosejurisdictionscanbenefitfrom9apotentiallowerGHGintensitythanwhatmightbeotherwiseprovidedbytheirutilitycompany10undertheState‐mandatedRPS.However,CCAsneedtopaycarefulattentionnotonlytotheir11qualifiedrenewablefraction(asdefinedbyCECregulation),butalsototheiroverallGHGintensity,12asthenon‐renewablefractioniscriticaltodeterminingtheCCAsoverallrelativeGHGreduction13benefits.14

Self‐generationanddistributedgenerationofrenewableelectricityviasolarorwind,andhavinga15lowGHGemittingutilityscaleelectricitysystemthatprovidespoweratareasonablecost,comprise16criticalelementsinanystrategytoefficientlyachievenetzeroenergynewbuildingsbetween202017and2030.Inaddition,distributedrenewablegenerationcanbeutilizedforexistingbuildingsto18increasethenetrenewableenergybeyondwhatmightbeachievedbyalocalutility,orevenaCCA.19

Asincreasingamountsofvariablerenewableenergy(suchassolarandwind)cometofruition,there20willbenewchallengesfacedbyutilitiesinbalancingtheirelectricalloads.Ifelectricitystorage21solutionsanddemandmanagementsolutions(suchasadvancedsmartgrids)arenotsufficiently22developed,thenloadbalancingmayneedtobeachievedbynaturalgasgeneration,atleastinthe23shortrun,whichcanreducetheGHGreductioneffectsofaddingmorerenewablegeneration.This24willbecomealargerconcerninthepost‐2020period,dependingontheloadbalancingandenergy25storagesolutionsthatprovetobeviableandcost‐effective.Localjurisdictionswillneedtobe26cognizantoftheseissuestoensurethattheGHGreductioneffectivenessoflocalmeasures27supportingrenewableenergyarenotbeingoverestimated,especiallyifthereare“debits”to28accountforinloadbalancing.Localjurisdictionscanalsobesupportiveinthisregardbypromoting29andpilotingsmartgridsalongwithutilitycompanies,includingdeploymentofsmartmetersand30similartechnologies.31

Transportation 32

GHGreductionstrategiesinthetransportationsectorarethreefold:(1)changingfuelstolowerGHG‐33intensityalternatives;(2)increasingtransportationvehicleefficiency;and(3)reducingvehicle34milestraveled.35

GovernorBrownhascalledfora50percentreductionofpetroleumconsumptionby2030.36

Fuel Strategies 37

TheStatehasledtheefforttopromotealternativefuelsfortransportationprimarilythroughthe38LCFS.TheLCFSwillnominallyreducetheGHGintensityoftransportationfuelsby10percentby392020.AnexpansionofthecurrentLCFStargetfor2030isincludedinthe2014AB32ScopingPlan40Update,andisconsideredlikely.TheStatealsoseekstopromotezeroemissionsvehicles(ZEVs)41suchaselectricalvehicles(EVs)throughanumberofprograms.TheStatealsoincentivizespurchase42



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ofalternativevehiclesthroughmeasuressuchasallowingcertainvehiclestouseHOVlaneswith1onlyasingleoccupant.2

Manylocaljurisdictionscurrentlysupportalternativefuelvehiclesfortheirmunicipalfleets.Some3localjurisdictionsalsopromotealternativefuelvehiclesthroughprogramssuchaslocal4installationsofEVchargingstationsatpublicfacilities,preferentialparkingforalternativefuel5vehicles,andothermeasures.Somelocaljurisdictionspromotereplacementoflandscaping6equipmentwithelectricalequipmentwherefeasible.However,someofthesemeasureshavebeen7suboptimaltodate;forexample,thebusinessmodelforprivateEVchargingstationshasmetonly8limitedsuccessatcurrentmarketelectricityandchargingprices.9

Lookingatthepost‐2020period,localjurisdictionscancontinuetoreplacemunicipalvehicles,10promotealternativelyfueledoff‐roadequipment,andsupportinfrastructureforelectricandother11alternativelyfueledvehicles.Localmeasuresinthepost‐2020worldwilllikelyhavegreatercost‐12effectivenessandfeasibilitythaninthepre‐2020eraduetochangingenergypricesandState13incentives.14

Vehicle Strategies 15

Federalandstategovernmentshavebeentheprimaryactorsinpromotinggreaterefficiencyfor16fossil‐fueledtransportationvehicles,throughtheCAFÉstandardsatthefederallevelandthrough17thePavely1/AdvancedCleanCarprogramsatthestatelevel.Currentprogramsincludeagoalofan18averageefficiencyof54.5milespergallonforlightdutyvehiclesby2025.Thus,localjurisdictions19willbeabletocountoncontinuingGHGreductionsinthetransportationsectorfrom2020to2025.20ItisalsolikelythattheStatewillexpandvehicleefficiencybeyond2025atsomepointinthefuture.21

Localgovernmentactionsinregardtovehicleefficiencyhaveprimarilybeenfocusedonmunicipal22purchasingpoliciesrequiringgreaterefficiencyasamajorconsiderationinfleetreplacement23planning.Whilethesetypesofprogramscanandshouldcontinueinthepost‐2020period,given24Stateandfederalregulationofvehicletechnology,theStatewillremaintheprimaryactorforvehicle25efficiencyintheforeseeablefuture.26

VMT Reduction Strategies 27

Fromthe1960stothebeginningofthiscentury,VMTandVMTperadultintheU.S.haveincreased28atapproximatelythesamerateasGrossDomesticProject(GDP).Howeversince2007vehiclemiles29traveledperadultnationwidehasdeclined,whileCaliforniawitnessedasimilardeclinebeginningin302005.Thecauseofthischangehasbeendebated.Commonlycitedexplanationsincludechanging31economicconditions(therecentrecession);changingfuelprices;agingofthebabyboomer32generation;reductionsinteendriving;changinglifestylepreferences(e.g.,urbanliving,public33transit);increasedsmartphoneuse;ariseintelecommuting;andotherfactors.Whilemanyofthese34explanationsareplausible,otherthanafocusonfuelpricesthereislittleresearchtosupport35alternativeexplanations.California’slong‐runtrendinVMTperadulthasmirroredthatofthe36countryasawhole.Inrecentyears,however,thetrendlineshavediverged:Californiansdrivefewer37milesannuallythantheaverageAmerican.California’shighfuelprices,highautomobileinsurance38rates,andseveretrafficcongestionarethoughttoexplainmostofthedivergence(Hymel2014).The39currenteconomicrecovery,ifsustained,mayhaveasubstantialeffectonVMTtrendsinthenear‐40term.Itisuncertainwhethertherecentdropinfuelpriceswillbesustained.Asustaineddropin41fuelpricescouldalsohaveaneffect,ifitweretooccur.42



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OnelessonlearnedfromCAPs,project‐levelCEQAreviews,andSB375implementationisthat1changesinVMTwillnotbeeasytoachieveonalargescaleinthenear‐term.Builtoutcommunities2havefewopportunitiestosubstantiallychangetheirlanduse.Someurbanareasarepursuinghigher3densityusesthataresupportedbytransitasaVMT–reductionstrategy.Thispushforhigherdensity4hasmetsubstantialoppositioninsomepartsoftheBayAreaandSanDiego.Fastgrowinglocalities5oftenhavelargegreenfieldareasthatallowmoresuburbanlow‐densitydevelopmentwithlimited6prospectstoreduceVMT.Somefastgrowingareashavecommittedtoinfillandhigherdensityto7achieveobjectivessuchasreducedfarmlandconversion,lowerservicecosts,andsupportfor8alternativetransportation.Itremainstobeseenwhethertheseinitiativeswillachievetheirdesired9resultsinthelongterm.10

Localjurisdictions,throughgeneralplansandCAPs,haveoftenincludedsupportforinfill,transit‐11orienteddevelopment,mixedusedevelopment,expansionoftransit,andexpansionofpedestrian12andbicyclefacilitiesaslocalstrategiestoreduceVMT.Localjurisdictionsarealsocoordinatingwith13transportationagenciesthroughSB375RegionalTransportationPlan/SustainableCommunities14Strategies,whichareprioritizingtransportationfundingtowardinfrastructurethatcansupport15long‐termreductionsinVMT.16

Inthepost‐2020period,localjurisdictionscancontinuetoexpandtheirsupportforlower‐VMTland17usesthroughcontinuedeffortsusingthestrategiesnotedabove,manyofwhichwillonlyshowtheir18actualVMTreductionpotentialonadecadalscale.19

AsvehicleefficiencycontinuestoincreaseandtransportationfuelswithlowerGHGintensitiescome20intowideruse,theeffectivenessofloweringVMTasaGHGreductionstrategywilldecrease.For21example,thefleetaveragempgof2013carsisapproximately24mpg.WithCAFÉstandards22requiringafleetaveragefornewcarsof54mpgin2025,theGHGeffectivenessofVMTreductionon23aper‐milebasiswillbeloweredby56percent.WhileVMTreductionstrategieswillcontinuetobe24importantforcongestionmanagementandaccess,localjurisdictionswillseesmallerreductions25fromVMTstrategiesasvehicleefficienciesandfuelGHGintensitieschangeovertime.26

Afurtherchallengeinthepost‐2020periodisthatincreasingvehicleefficiencycouldlowerthecost27ofdriving,dependingonwhathappenswithtransportationfuelprices.Asageneralrule,reduced28drivingcostscanincentivizeincreasesinVMT.Reduceddrivingcostscouldresultinarenewed29demandforhousinginmoreoutlyingareas,whichifauthorized,couldundermineVMTreduction30efforts.31

Solid Waste 32

Wastereductionstrategiesbylocaljurisdictionsfocusonreducingtheamountofwasteplacedin33landfills,andreducingtheamountofmethanereleasedtotheatmospherefromlandfills.34

Waste Reduction 35

NearlyallCAPsincludewastereductionasastandardGHGreductionstrategy,particularlysince36wastereductionhasbeenalong‐standingpolicyformostCaliforniajurisdictions.Sourcereduction,37reuse,andrecyclingprogramsallfitundertherubricofwastereduction.Acommongoalinmany38CAPshasbeentodivertapproximately75percentoflocalwastefromthelandfill,andmanyCAPs39includefoodwaste,compostingandothersupportingmeasurestohelpinthiseffort.Some40municipalitieshaveadoptednear‐futuretargetsofzerowastetolandfills(=100percentdiversion).41



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Inthepost‐2020period,itisexpectedthatcommonwastediversiontargetswillexceed75percent,1withmorecommunitiesadoptingzerowastegoalsalongwithexpansionofprogramsfor2constructionanddemolitionwaste,foodwastecomposting,reuserequirements,andother3measures.4

Methane Capture 5

CurrentStatelaw(AB449)requireslargerlandfillstocaptureatleast75percentofthemethane6generated.Somewasteauthorities,suchasSanBernardinoCounty,haveadoptedmeasuresintheir7GHGreductionplantoexceed75percentmethanerecoveryatsomeoftheirkeylandfills.Wasteto8energytechnologyhasbeenimprovingovertimebutcommunityconcernsaboutemissionshave9hinderedimplementationofsomeproposedplants.Ifthoseconcernscanadequatelybeaddressed,10localjurisdictionsthatownlandfillsmayseektoexpandwastetoenergyfacilities.Methane11digestersforhighorganicwaste(suchasfoodwaste)havealsobeenimplementedbysomewaste12managementauthorities.Inthepost‐2020period,localjurisdictionsthatcontrollandfillfacilities13maybelookingtoacceleratemanyofthesestrategiesaspartoflocalGHGreductionplanning.14

Other Sectors 15

Whilebuildingenergy,transportation,andsolidwasteusuallyconstitutethedominantsourcesof16emissionsunderthecontrolofalocaljurisdiction,mostCAPsaddressothersectorsaswell.17Potentialpost‐2020considerationsfortheseothersectorsarenotedbelow.18

Water 19

ManylocaljurisdictionsinCaliforniahavehadalong‐standingpolicyroleconcerningwater20conservationdueto(1)theinadequacyoflocalwatersuppliestowaterdemandsinmanypartsof21theState,(2)thecostsintransportingwateroverlongdistances,and(3)thesusceptibilityto22drought.MoststudiesoftheeffectsofclimatechangeinCaliforniaindicatethatthewatersupplyin23manypartsofCaliforniawillbeadverselyaffected.Thus,separatefromconcernoverGHG24emissions,thereareimportantsocietalgoalsachievedbywaterconservation.25

Inthepost‐2020period,watersupplywillcontinuetobeacriticalissue,anditisexpectedthatmost26localjurisdictionswillexamineandimplementtougherwaterconservationmeasures.SBX7727requiresurbanretailerstoreduceurbanwaterconservationby20percentpercapitabelow28nominal2005levelsby2020.ItislikelythattheStateorlocalentitieswillgofurtherthanthese29requirementsinthepost‐2020period.Therangeofmeasurestoreducewateruseiswellknownto30localjurisdictions(includinglandscapeefficiency,conservationoflocalsources,efficientappliances,31waterpricing,useofgreywater,etc.),buttheirapplicationisexpectedtoincrease.Severalwater32supplytechnologies,suchasrecycledwateranddesalination,areexpectedtocomeintowideruse,33andareassociatedwithincreasedenergydemandsthatcouldoffsetsomeoftheenergyreductions34fromwaterconservationmeasures.35

Wastewater 36

Localjurisdictionsthatownandoperatewastewaterfacilitiesoftenincludeimprovementsinplant37equipmentefficiencyintheirCAPs,withsomejurisdictionsconsideringmethanecaptureand/or38waste‐to‐energyschemes.Inthepost‐2020period,thesemeasuresmaybecomemorecommon39throughouttheState.40



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Industrial Point Sources 1

MostlocaljurisdictionsdonotincludeindustrialpointsourcesintheirlocalGHGreductionplanning,2althoughmanywilldisclosepointsourceemissionsinlocalinventories.GivenStateandfederal3regulationoflargeindustrialpointsources,itisunlikelythatlocaljurisdictionswillwanttoadd4localGHGreductionregulationtoavoidduplicatingorinterferingwithStateorfederalregulations.5Stateandfederalregulation—underCalifornia’scap‐and‐tradesystemand/orfederalsource6permittingundertheCleanAirAct—willcontinue,andishighlylikelytobecomemorestringent7overtime.SincemostlocaljurisdictionsexcludesuchlargeindustrialsourcesfromtheirlocalGHG8reductionplanning,thisisnotalikelysourceofadditionalreductionsforlocalGHGreduction9planninginthepost‐2020era.10

SomejurisdictionsoperateutilitypointsourcesofGHGemissionsandincludesuchemissionsin11municipalCAPs.ThesefacilitiesareusuallysubjecttoStateandfederalregulation,andutilitiesare12subjecttoRPSrequirementsaswell.Forthesejurisdictions,somemayfinditcosteffectivetoexceed13regulatorymandatedminimumsandachieveadditionalGHGreductions,butthisisacase‐by‐case14determinationandwilldependonhowdeepreductionsaremandatedbytheStateandfederal15government.16

Agriculture 17

Mostcitieshavelimitedagriculturalsectoremissions,butnon‐urbancountiessuchasCentralValley18counties,somecentralcoastcounties,andMontereyCounty,NapaCounty,SonomaCounty,and19ImperialCountyhavesubstantialagriculturalsectoremissions.Todate,mostlocalCAPshavebeen20limitedintheirapproachtoagriculturalemissions,especiallyinlightoflimitedattentiononthe21agriculturalsectorinthe2008AB32ScopingPlan.Inthe2014ScopingPlanUpdate,ARBindicated22itsintentiontofocusmoreonagriculturalemissionsinthenextroundofStatelevelGHGreduction23planning,includingestablishingagriculturalsectorGHGreductiontargetsforboththemid‐terms24and2050.Assuch,itisexpectedthatcountieswithsubstantialagriculturalsectoremissionswill25alsohaveagreaterfocusondevelopingagriculturalGHGreductionmeasuresforpost‐2020targets.26Mostagricultureisallowedbyright,withtheexceptionofconfinedanimalfacilities,sothereis27limitedlocalgovernmentalabilitytoapplyconditions.Giventhatregulationoftheagricultural28sectorisverydifferentfromotherlandusesectors,suchashousingandcommercial,itisexpected29thatcountieswillapproachagriculturalsectorreductionswithincreasedrelianceonvoluntary30partnershipswiththeagriculturalindustry,moresothanwithspecificregulatoryapproachesfor31otherlandusesectors.Sequestrationinagriculturallandscapesisaddressedseparatelybelow.32

Carbon Sequestration 33

Todate,therehasbeenlimitedfocusoncarbonsequestrationinlocalCAPsotherthanurban34forestrymeasuresfocusedontreeplanning.However,thereisasubstantialpotentialforGHG35reductionsthroughincreasingsoilcarboninagriculturallandscapes(bothincroppedfieldsaswell36asrangelands).Somelocalefforts,suchastheMarinCarbonProject17,aredemonstratingmethods37anddevelopingprotocolstosupportincreasedsoilcarboninworkinglandscapes,andtoidentifythe38potentialtoscaleuppracticestocoverlargerareaswithintheState.WithStateplanningfocusing39moreattentiononagricultureinthenextfewyears,itisexpectedthatcarbonsequestrationwill40becomealargercomponentofagriculturalcountyGHGreductionplanninginthepost‐2020era.41

17See:http://www.marincarbonproject.org/



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Outsideofurbanforestry,carbonsequestrationinworkingforestsandnaturallandscapeshasbeen1includedinlocalGHGreductionplanningononlyalimitedbasistodate.SomeCAPscallfor2restorationofripariancorridorsandotherpriorityareasforhabitatconservationpurposesaswell3asGHGreductions.The2014AB32ScopingPlanUpdatecalledfordevelopmentofa“ForestCarbon4Plan”by2016whichwillincludequantitativetargetstoincreasenetforestcarbonstorage.Thus,for5countieswithsubstantialforestedareas,theremaybeincreasingpressureandopportunitiesfor6localGHGreductionplanningtosupportStateeffortstoincreaseforestcarbonsequestration.7



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VI. Recommendations 1

Rich Walter, ICF International; Nicole Vermillion, Placeworks 2

The Role of CEQA in a Post‐2020 World 3

ThefollowingrecommendationsaremadeinlightofmaintainingandenhancingtheroleofCEQAin4supporting,nothindering,post‐2020GHGreductionefforts.5

Limit CEQA GHG Analysis to the State GHG Planning Horizon based on a State 6Legislatively Mandated Target 7

ThispaperpointstotheinfeasibilityofrequiringcompliancewiththegoalsinEOS‐03‐05asade8factosignificancethresholdinCEQAdocuments.Nothingisservedbyestablishinganimpossible9threshold,orbyanalyzingimpactssofarinthefuturethattheyrequirespeculation.Instead,the10limitofGHGanalysisforCEQAdocumentshouldbethecurrentStateGHGplanninghorizon.At11present,theonlytrueStatereductionplanistheAB32ScopingPlan,whichhasaverifiedand12quantifiedreductionstrategyonlyto2020.13

ARBispresentlyconsideringfeasibleGHGreductionstrategiesfor2030andbeyond,butlacksthe14legislativeauthoritytomandatesuchreductionsfortheprivatesectororlocalgovernmentsabsent15furtherlegislativeactiontomandatereductionsbeyond2020.Thenextlikelystepforthe16LegislatureandforARBisadoptionofa2030targetandthecreationofanewScopingPlanlaying17outtheState’splanforachievingthe2030target.AswehaveseenwithAB32implementation,local18actionisanimportantpartofachievingtheState’stargetandthiswilllikelycontinuetobetruein19thepost‐2020world.Thus,onlywhentheStatehasaplanfor2030,shouldCEQAanalysisand20thresholdsthenshiftfromthecurrent2020horizontothe2030horizon.Whenapost‐2030planis21ineffect,thehorizonshouldshiftagain.22

Set "Substantial Progress" as the Significance Threshold 23

CurrentpracticeforevaluationofGHGemissionsinproject‐leveldocumentsistouseacomparison24toathreshold,ortoevaluateconsistencywiththe“qualified”GHGreductionplan.Allthethresholds25usedinCEQAdocumentsinCalifornia,andall“qualified”GHGreductionplansinuseforCEQA26tiering,arebasedonmeeting(orexceeding)theAB32reductiontargets,buttherearenolocalGHG27reductionplansthathaveanactualplantomeeta2050targetof80percentbelow1990levels.28

Giventhecollectiveimpactof(1)thescientificimperativeforreducingGHGemissionsglobally,(2)29theexistenceofthe2050goalinEOS‐03‐05,(3)theSANDAGCEQAAppellateCourtruling,and(4)30possibleStatelegislativeactiontoadopta2050goal,therewerebesubstantialpressuretochange31theframeworkforCEQAanalysisofGHGemissionstoaccountfortheneedtomovebeyondthe322020AB32goals.33

Asarguedinthispaper,currently,localjurisdictionscannotontheirowndevelopfeasibleplansto34deliverjurisdiction‐levelemissionreductionallthewaytothe2050goalbecausetheeffortto35changetheeconomicactivityandtechnologyinusewillrequiretheactionofthefederalandState36governments,aswellasthefinancialability(throughmarketmeansorgovernmentfunding)to37implementthenecessarychanges.Whilelocaljurisdictionscanandshouldcontributetoand38supportthislongtermeffort,ontheirowntheywillbelimitedintheirabilitytodeliverthefull39



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amountofreductionsneeded.Furthermore,solvingalargecumulativeproblemlikeGHGemissions1entirelyatthesmallestlevelsofgovernmentisverylikelytoresultininefficient,cost‐ineffective,2piecemeal,and/orinconsistentsolutionsthatwilltaxthefinancialandpoliticalwilloflocal3communities.4

Evenifsomemunicipalitiesweretoagreetoademandingfuturethresholdbasedonthe2050goal,5assomeadvocatesdesire,giventhedifficultiesinachievingsuchsubstantialreductionsonaproject‐6levelbasis,theendresultislikelytobeincreasingnumbersofEIRswithmorestatementsof7overridingconsiderations,which(1)wouldnotresultinadditionalGHGreductions,(2)would8consumemorelocalgovernmenttime,effort,andcost,and(3)wouldnotinspiremotivationforlocal9governmentstoengageinholisticlocalGHGreductionefforts.10

Instead,thispaperrecommendsthatanewCEQAsignificancethresholdforGHGemissionsshould11bethefollowing:12

“Doestheprojectimpedesubstantialprogressinlocal,regional,andStateGHGemissions13reductionsovertimetowardlong‐termGHGreductiontargetsadoptedbytheState14Legislature?”15

Allow CEQA Tiering from GHG Reduction Plans that Make “Substantial Progress” 16Toward Reducing GHG Emission Impacts 17

TherecentSanDiegocasesdetailedearlierinthispaperhavethepotentialtodeterlocal18jurisdictionsfromseekingtoprepareandimplementaGHGreductionplanbecause,essentially,they19removethe“carrot”forCEQAstreamliningandcreatetoomuchuncertainty.20

WhileCEQAGuidelinesallowleadagenciestoprepareGHGreductionplansforthepurposeofCEQA21streamliningofGHGemissionsimpacts,therecentSanDiegorulings,takenatfacevalue,couldbe22interpretedtomeanthatnoGHGreductionplanascurrentlywrittenwouldmeetthecriteriaset23forthinCEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5.24

TopromoteCEQAstreamliningandencouragelocalagenciestoprepareGHGreductionplansfor25communitywideGHGemissions,theLegislatureshouldrequireachangetotheCEQAGuidelinesthat26willallowfortieringwhenajurisdictionshows“substantialprogress”towardmeetingState27legislatively‐adoptedGHGreductiongoals.28

ThisconceptisnotnewandissimilartothelanguageaddedtotheCEQAGuidelinesunderSenate29Bill226(SB226)forinfilldevelopment.SB226(2011)amendedtheCEQAGuidelinestoprovidea30streamlinedreviewprocessforinfillprojects.AsstatedinCEQAGuidelinesSection15183.3,the31purposeofthissectionistostreamlinereviewwheretheeffectsofaninfillprojecthavebeen32addressedinaplanningdecisionorbyuniformlyapplicabledevelopmentpolicies.Thisisdirectly33comparabletothepurposeandintentofGHGreductionplans,andissimilarlywritteninCEQA34GuidelinesSection15183.5.ItisclearthatGHGemissionsreductionsarebesthandledatacitywide,35regional,orstatewidelevelinordertoattaintheapplicableGHGreductiongoals,ratherthanona36project‐by‐projectbasis.ThusitismostbeneficialforajurisdictiontoprepareaGHGreductionplan37thataddressesemissionsonacommunitywidelevel,ratherthanonaproject‐by‐projectbasis.The38purposeofaGHGreductionplandirectlyalignswiththeintentoftheLegislaturewhenadoptingSB39226.40

BecausetheintentoftheCEQAstreamliningofferedunderSB226issocloselyalignedwiththe41purposeoftheGHGreductionsplansandCEQAGuidelinesSection15183.5,itimportanttonotethat42



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SB226allowsleadagenciestotieroffdevelopmentstandardsthatwould“substantiallymitigate”1theenvironmentaleffects(CEQAGuidelinesSection15183.3(b)(c)).IfCEQAGuidelinesSection215183.5wasaffordedthesameflexibilitybyallowingtieringoffaGHGreductionplanthatmade3“substantialprogress”towardreducingGHGemissionsovertime,itwouldprovideleadagencies4withadditionalflexibility,aswellasprovidemoreincentiveforutilizingthiskindofplanningand5implementationtool.6

TheCEQAGuidelinesalreadyallowforCEQAstreamliningofimpactswhenthereareprograms,7plans,andregulationsthatsubstantiallymitigateimpactsforinfillprojects.Therefore,itwould8makesensethatasimilarapplicationshouldbeappliedforGHGReductionPlansunderCEQA9GuidelinesSection15183.5.10

Allow Partial CEQA Exemption for CAPs 11

OneofthemoreabsurdapplicationsofCEQAistorequireCEQAdocumentsonCAPs.Manyofthe12actionsincludedinCAPs,suchasenergy‐efficientretrofitsorenergyefficiencyfornew13development,areunlikelytoresultinsignificantenvironmentalimpacts.However,someofthe14actionsincludedinlocalCAPscancertainlyhaveimpactsontheenvironment,suchasutility‐scale15solarenergyfacilitiesthatmightbeproposedwithinsensitivehabitatareas.Ontheotherhand,16projectspecificimpactsfromsitingsolarorsimilarfacilitiessuchashabitatimpactswouldbe17speculativeunlessspecificlocationswereproposedinaCAPandwouldbesubjecttotheirown18CEQAreview.ThereisnoexemptionorstreamliningforCAPsunderCEQA.Theanalysiswithinthe19CEQAdocumentsassociatedwithCAPsisusuallyhighlyprogrammaticandnon‐locationspecific,20meaningthatthoseCAPelementsthatdoresultinpotentiallysignificantenvironmentalimpacts21wouldrequireaproject‐levelCEQAdocumentregardlessoftheprogrammaticlevelanalysis.Asa22result,theCEQAdocumentsforCAPsbyandlargedonotprovideusefuldisclosureorconsequential23environmentalmitigation.24

AmoreproductiveapproachwouldbetoestablishapartialCEQAexemptionfortheCAPadoption.25TheexemptionwouldlimitthescopeofCEQAcompliancetoaddressingGHGemissionsonly,and26wouldeliminatetheneedtoanalyzeotherenvironmentalimpactsattheprogrammaticlevel,while27mandatingCEQAevaluationontheproject‐levelelementsfromtheCAPthatmayhave28environmentaleffectsoftheirown.ThisapproachwouldretaintheabilityforCEQAtieringfroma29qualifiedGHGreductionplan,andwouldeliminateanimpedimenttolocalCAPdevelopment,while30stillensuringthatproject‐levelsecondaryenvironmentalimpactsarefullydisclosedandmitigated31asrequiredbyCEQA.32

The Role of General Plans in a Post‐2020 World 33

Thefollowingrecommendationsaremadeinlightofmaintainingandenhancingtheroleoflocal34generalplansinsupportingpost‐2020GHGreductionefforts.35

Improve General Plan/CAP Coordination 36

TherehasbeendebateintheplanningworldaboutwhetherornotCAPsshouldbeintegratedinto37generalplans.Thisisbestdecidedonacase‐by‐casebasisinordertorespecttheparticular38preferences,style,andlocalconsiderationsthatgointoeachgeneralplan.Giventhatjurisdictions39arelimitedinhowmanygeneralplanamendmentscanbemadeinayear,andtheamountofeffort40associatedwithsuchamendmentsandupdates,somecommunitiesseeadvantagesinhavinga41



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separateCAPprocessandCAPdocument;arguingthatitcanbemoreresponsivetofast‐changing1conditionswhilemaintainingthegeneralplanasamorebroadpolicy“charter”forthecommunity.2OthercommunitiespreferafullintegrationofthegeneralplanwiththeCAPtoensurethatGHG3reductionmeasurespermeateallnecessaryaspectsoflocalplanning.4

Thepost‐2020GHGreductionchallengeshouldnotdictatealocaljurisdiction’schoiceunlessthe5Statemandatesthatclimatechangebecomesarequiredgeneralplanelement.Suchlegislation6wouldbereflectedinfutureGeneralPlanGuidelineupdates.7

Inanycase,generalplansandCAPsmuststillbebroughtintocloserandbetteralignmentforGHG8reductionmeasuresunderthecontrolofalocaljurisdictiontobeeffective.However,themannerin9whichthatalignmentisconductedshouldbelefttolocaldiscretion,providedthatthereissufficient10rigor,support,enforcement(wherenecessary),andmonitoringtoensurethatlocalGHGinitiatives11canbeandareeffectivelyimplemented.12

Establish 20‐year Planning Horizons for General Plan CEQA Analysis to Better 13Match Regional Planning Horizons 14

Asidentifiedinthispaper,GHGreductionplansareoftenpreparedconcurrentlywithgeneralplan15updates.GHGreductionplansseektoidentifymeasuresthatwouldbeimplementedbya16jurisdictionoverinthenear‐andlong‐termtoachieveGHGreductiongoals.Therefore,aGHG17reductionplanistiedtoacleartimelinewithadefinedhorizonyear.18

Generalplanstypicallyhavelong‐termtimeframes,andmanydonotlinkgeneralplandevelopment19toanytimetableatall.Thisisbecausegeneralplansguidegrowthanddevelopmentbasedon20developmentstandardssetforthinthelanduseplan,andongoalsandpoliciesidentifiedinthe21generalplanelements.Althoughthelanduseplanguidesgrowthanddevelopmentwithina22jurisdiction,actualgrowthisbasedonmarketconditionsanddemographicchangesovertime.While23someGHGreductionplansgobeyond2020,mostGHGreductionplanspreparedsincethearrivalof24AB32weredraftedtoachievethe2020target.Asaresult,thetimelineidentifiedinaGHGreduction25planmaynothavealwaysbeenconsistentwiththegeneralplantimeline.26

Thetimehorizonforenvironmentalimpactanalysisforageneralplanisanotherimportantsticking27point,becauseunderCEQAonemustanalyzethe“wholeofanaction,”perCEQAGuidelinesSection2815378(a).Forageneralplan,thismeanstheanalysismustconsiderthereasonablyforeseeable29directandindirectphysicalchangesassociatedwiththeunderlyinglanduseplan,including30reasonablebuildoutofalltheparcelsbasedonthelandusedesignations.Manyjurisdictionsare31unlikelytobebuiltoutby2100,muchlessbytheyear2050.32

Furthermore,notallregionalgovernmentsandtransportationagencieshaveforecastedouttoyear332050.ThispresentsdifficultieswhendraftinggeneralplanCEQAanalysesandcanaddtothe34confusionover“buildout”versus“horizonyear.”Forexample,long‐rangetransportationplans,35includingtheRTPspreparedbyMPOsandcongestionmanagementplans(CMPs)preparedbylocal36congestionmanagementagencies,onlyforecastouttoa20‐yearplanninghorizon.Transportation37modelingforageneralplanusuallydependsonthecirculationnetworkandthecumulativetraffic38growthassumptionsoutsidethejurisdiction,basedontheseregionaltransportationtools.39Consequently,thehorizonyearforthetrafficanalysisinageneralplanistypicallycappedbasedon40thelatestforecastyearavailablefromtheregional/sub‐regionaltransportationagencies.Other41regionalplanningtools,suchasurbanwatermanagementplans(UWMPs),arealsoforecastedoutto42



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onlya20yearplanninghorizon,andarebecomingincreasinglymoreimportantinlightofthe1increasingdroughtconcernsthroughouttheState.2

Generalplansrelyheavilyonthesevarioustypesofregionalplanningtools,mostofwhichare3forecastedouttoa20‐yearplanninghorizon.Yet,thereisnocut‐offdateormandatethatthe4generalplanimpactanalysisberequiredtoconsidergrowthandassociatedphysicalenvironmental5impactsforonlya20‐yearplanninghorizon.Asaresult,thereisadisconnectbetweenhowwe6analyzeimpactsforCEQA,andtheregionalplanningobjectives/forecastingdataavailable.7

Tobridgethisgapinhowweplanforgrowthandhowleadagenciesmustanalyzeimpactsunder8CEQA,legislationshouldrequirethattheCEQAGuidelinesbeamendedtorecommendthatgeneral9plansanalyzeimpactsoverthesameplanninghorizonrequiredforotherregionalplanningtools,10suchaswatersupply/demand,andtransportationplanning.IftheCEQAGuidelinesspecifically11redefinedtheplanninghorizonforageneralplanasbeingona20‐yearbasis,thenitwouldlink12growthanalyzedintheEIRtoaclearandconsistentplanninghorizon.Furthermore,nothingwould13precludeajurisdictionfromextendingtheplanninghorizontoalongertimeframe.Linkingthe14analysisofthegeneralplanEIRtoaclearplanninghorizonwouldalsoprovidebenefitsforGHG15reductionplanningbyallowingthehorizonanalyzedinthegeneralplantobethesameasthe16horizonanalyzedformeasurestoachieveGHGreductiongoalsforthejurisdiction.17

The Role of Climate Action Plans in a Post‐2020 World 18

Thefollowingrecommendationsaremadeinlightofmaintainingandenhancingtheroleoflocal19CAPsinsupportingpost‐2020GHGreductionefforts.20

The Need for Legislative Action on Post‐AB 32 Targets 21

TheCaliforniaLegislatureneedstotakeactiontoadopt2030and2050GHGreductiontargetsthat22havetheforceoflawthroughouttheState.A2030targetisneededtoinformStatepolicyeffortsfor23theRPS,vehiclestandards,transportationfuelpolicy,thecap‐and‐tradeprogram,andother24regulations.Inaddition,a2030targetwouldinformthenextgenerationoflocalGHGreduction25plansandwouldsupportCEQAthresholdsandevaluation.The2030targetshouldrepresentan26ambitioustargettokeeptheStateontrackfor2050reductions,butshouldalsobeanachievable27targetbasedonavailabletechnologiesandarealisticrateofsocialandeconomicchange.A205028targetfromtheLegislatureisalsoneededtoreplacethelimitedlegalapplicabilityofthe2050target29inEOS‐03‐05.30

Asidentifiedearlierinthispaper,acriticalissuefacingplannersandCEQApractitionersisthat31therenomandatethattheState,asawhole,mustachievethelong‐termGHGreductiongoals32establishedinExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05.Asaresult,thereisnoplantoachieve80percentbelow331990levelsby2050(oraninterimgoalfor2030),andthereisnoguidanceavailableonhowlocal34jurisdictionscanaddresspost‐2020GHGreductiongoals.Yet,thereiscaselawandsubstantial35pressurefromadvocacygroupstogobeyond2020whenestablishingGHGreductionprograms.36Withoutamandateforpost‐2020reductionsforStateagencies,localjurisdictionsinCalifornia37wouldhaveaninsurmountabletaskinmeetingthecriteriaoutlinedinCEQAGuidelinesSection3815183.5.Asaresult,therewouldbelittleincentiveforpreparinglocalGHGreductionplansto39achievepost‐2020GHGreductiongoals.40

InlightoftherulingsinSierraClubv.theCityofSanDiego(2014)andClevelandv.SANDAG(2014),it41isclearthatatsomepointtheLegislaturewillneedtoconsiderinterimtargetstoalignthelong‐term42



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goalsofExecutiveOrderS‐03‐05withthestatewideplansandprogramsbeingconsidered.Atthe1timeofthiswhitepaper(March2015),therewerethreeseparateproposalsinfrontofthe2Legislaturethatwouldprovideaninterimtargetbetween2020and2050,andthatwouldensure3thatStateagenciesbegintoplanforpolicies,programs,andregulationstoachievetheinterim4target.5

SenateBill32(SB32)wasintroducedbySenatorPavleyandwouldrequirethat(1)ARB6approveaGHGemissionslimitthatisequivalentto80percentbelow1990levelsby2050,(2)7aninterimGHGreductiontargetbeachievedby2030and2040,and(3)Stateagenciesadopt8policiesthatensurelong‐termemissionsreductionsinadvanceofthecriteriafor2030,2040,9and2050.10

AssemblyBill33(AB33)wasintroducedbyAssemblyMemberQuirkandwouldrequire11thatARB—onorbeforeJanuary1,2017—submitanUpdatetotheScopingPlanthatincludes12aGHGreductiongoalfor2030,2040,and2050.ThisbillwouldrequirethatARBinclude13quantifiedstatewidegoalsandstrategiestoachievethe2030target.14

AssemblyBill21(AB21)wasintroducedbyAssemblyMemberPereaandwouldrequire15thatARB—onorbeforeJanuary1,2018—recommendtotheGovernororLegislaturea16specifictargetofstatewideemissionsreductionsfor2030.17

ARB Needs an Actual Plan for 2030 (and a Later One for 2050) 18

IftheLegislaturemovesforwardwithanyoftheseproposalsandestablishesaGHGreductiontarget19for2030,2040,and/or2050,thenARBshouldberequiredtodraftaplantoachievethenew20interim/long‐rangetarget(s),andStateagenciesshouldberequiredtoadoptprogramsand21regulationstosupportthestatewidetarget(s).Adoptionofapost‐2020targetbytheLegislature22wouldgoalongwaytowardsupportingjurisdictionsintheirGHGreductionefforts,becauselocal23actionsaloneareinsubstantialcomparedtothetop‐downreductionsthatcouldoccurifGHG24reductionmandatesareimplementedattheStatelevel.Thiswouldcreatethecontextwithinwhich25localandregionalgovernmentscouldevaluateandidentifythefair‐shareroleoflocalgovernments26tohelptheStatemeetitsoveralltargets.27

ARBshouldalsoconductever‐moredetailedscenarioanalysisforpathwaystomeettheselected28legislativetargetfor2050.Thiswillhelpthepublicanddecisionmakerstounderstandhownear‐29termpolicyandregulationtosupportthe2030targetwillrelatetothefurthereffortnecessaryto30meettheidentified2050target.31

Create 2030, 2040 and 2050 Scenarios/Calculators 32

BuildingonthegroundbreakingworkintheUKfortheir2050Calculator,theStateneedstocreatea332050CaliforniaCalculatortoinformCaliforniansastheyfacethecoming2050challenges.ARB34wouldbethelogicalauthorofthestatewidecalculator.Furthermore,acalculatorshouldbe35preparednotonlyfortheStateasawhole,butshouldbeextendedtoallowjurisdictionstoexamine36theirlocalemissionsaswelltoapplydifferentscenarios.Giventheneedforinterimtargetplanning37inthelead‐upto2050,themodelsshouldalsoincludeinterimyearsof2030,2040and2050.38

Inordertodevelopstatewideandlocal‐usecalculators,therewillbeaneedtocreatearough39consensusaboutacceptableassumptionsformodelingpopulationandeconomicgrowth,BAU40conditions,andreductionstrategyeffectiveness.41



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Ideally,suchcalculatoreffortswouldbecoupledwitheconomicandcost‐effectivenessmodeling,in1ordertobestinformthepublicanddecisionmakersastotheeconomicimplicationsofdifferent2pathwaysto2050.3

"Walking to Run" 4

Asdemonstratedthroughoutthispaper,withouteitheraStatelegislativereductiontargetanda5realisticStateplanforreducingGHGemissionbeyond2020,itwillnotbefeasibleintheforeseeable6futureforlocaljurisdictionsontheirowntoadoptenforceableGHGreductionstrategiestomeeta72050reductiontargetconsistentwithEOS‐03‐052050goals,ortoachieveprogresstowardthe82050goalforinterimyears.9

Instead,theprudentapproachisforlocalGHGreductionplanningtofocusontherealisticand10achievableGHGreductionsthatareunderthecontrolorsubstantialinfluenceoflocalgovernments11themselves.LocalGHGreductionplanningwillneedtobecomeincreasinglymoreambitiousona12phasedbasis.CAPsshouldbeupdatedandexpandedperiodicallytoreflecttheemergingState(and13possiblyfederal)frameworkfordeeperfuturereductions.14

ThetestforlocalCAPsandassociatedCEQApracticesconcerningGHGprojectanalysisshouldbe15whetherlocalactionandprojectmitigationresultsinreasonablelocalfair‐shareofGHGreductions16overtime,showingsubstantialprogresstowardthelong‐termStatereductiontargets.17

18



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VII. References 1

Bain,Robert.2011.InterviewwithLloydFullerforTrafficTechnologyInternational.Available:2http://www.robbain.com/TTI%20Interview%20Feb%202011.pdf3

CaliforniaAirPollutionControlOfficer’sAssociation(CAPCOA).2009.ModelPoliciesforGreenhouse4GasesinGeneralPlans:AResourceforLocalGovernmenttoIncorporateGeneralPlanPoliciesto5ReduceGreenhouseGasEmissions.June.Available:http://www.capcoa.org/wp‐6content/uploads/downloads/2010/05/CAPCOA‐ModelPolicies‐6‐12‐09‐915am.pdf7

CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard.2012.ARBVisionModel,Availableat:8http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/vision/vision.htm.9

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