Assessment of Pollution ReductionAssessment of Pollution Reduction in the 11th Five Year Plan Period

Task Force on

Policy Mechanism towards Environmental Targets forPolicy Mechanism towards Environmental Targets for the 12th “Five‐Year” Plan

CCICED Task Force on Pollution Reduction

组长 CO‐CHAIRS

W Ji CCICED M b Vi Ch i C t l C itt f Chi P t d W kWang Jirong CCICED Member, Vice Chairwoman, Central Committee of Chinese Peasants and Workers Democratic Party; Vice-Chairwoman, Environment and Resources Protection Committee of the National People's Congress

Dan Dudek CCICED Member, Vice President, Environmental Defense Fund, USA

核 专家核心专家 CORE EXPERTS

Wu Shunze Vice President, CAPE

Wang Jinnan Vice President, CAPE

Hao Jiming Academician of CAE Tsinghua UniversityHao Jiming Academician of CAE, Tsinghua University

Feng Fei Director, Industrial Economy Division, Development Research Center of the State Council

Zhang Qingjie Professor, Institute of Territorial Development and Regional Economy, NDRC

Brendan Gillispie Head, Environment and Globalisation Division, OECD

Laurence Tubiana Director, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations

Mary Gade President, Gade Environmental Group, LLC

Martin Jaenicke Professor for Comparative Politics, Freie Universitaet Berlin

研究专家MEMBERS OF EXPERT

Norm Brandson Former Deputy Minister of Enviroment, Conservation and Water Stewardship, Manitoba, Canada

Wan Jun Ge Chazhong Jia Jielin Zhang Feifei Li Xin Yu Lei Zhou Jinsong

Xu Min Ye Weili Wu Yueying Wang Dong Sun Hongliang Sun Juan Yan Gang

Jiang Chunlai Lei Yu Wang Jinzhao Song Zifeng Xu Jiayu Zeng Siyu Jiang Jingkun

FrameworkFramework

Target

Measures Policies

Effects

Conclusion& Suggestions

Target

1. It is a great achievement that the emission reduction targets were met while ea

sures

emission reduction targets were met while the environmental pressure exceeded the 

Me

licy

expected scenario. Pocts

Effe

onCo

nclusi

Key parameters for social and economic development in the 11th FYP far exceeded the expected scenariofar exceeded the expected  scenario 

Coal Consumption(100 million tons)

% of coal in the energy Ta

rget

(100 million tons) Thermal power installed capacity

100 million kw

Thermal power generation

consumption mix

easures

Me

licy

Annual GDP growth rate

Pocts

Crude Steel?(100 million tons)

Cement production100 million tons

Refinery oil 100 million tons

Non-ferrous metal 100 million tons

Effe

onCo

nclusi

Environmental pressure exceeded the expected scenario in the 11th

FYP period

规划目标 实现情况

类别 指标 2005

规划目标 实现情况

差距总体上对环境

影响

2010 年均增长(%） 2010 年均增长（%）

GDP exceeds the planned

Target

经济

增长

国内生产总值（万

亿元）18.5 26.1 7.50 39.8 11.2 +3.7% 逆向

人均国内生产总值14185 19270 6.6 29748 10.6 +4.0% 逆向

GDP exceeds the planned scenario for 13700 billion Yuan

The proportion of value added easures

（元）逆向

经济

服务业增加值比重

（%）40.5 43.3 [3] 43 [2.5] [-0.5%] 正向

研发经费支出占1 3 2 [0 7] 1 75 [0 45] [ 0 25] 正向11 million more urbanized

p pin service sector in GDP is 0.5% lower than expected

Me

licy

结构 GDP比重（%）1.3 2 [0.7] 1.75 [0.45] [-0.25] 正向

城镇化率（%） 43 47 [4] 47.5 [4.5] [+0.5] 逆向

全国总人口（万人） 130756 136000 <8‰ 137053 9.6‰ [+1.6‰] 逆向

单位国内生产总值

11 million more urbanized Population

An extra 550 million tons of coal equivalent energy was consumed Energy intensity

Pocts

人口、能源

与资源

单位国内生产总值

能耗消耗降低（%）[20] [19.1%] [-0.9%] 正向

单位工业增加值用

水量降低（%）[30] [36.7] [+6.7%] 正向

农业灌溉用水有效

energy was consumed. Energy intensity reductions were 0.9% less than planned

The additional pollution reduction effort needed to

Effe

on农业灌溉用水有效

利用系数0.45 0.5 [0.05] 0.5 [0.05] 0 正向

pmeet the pollution caps amounted to 2.08 million tons of COD and 4.93 million tons of SO2

Conclusi

Emissions reduction exceeded the targets

3000

Change in SO2 emissionSO

1500

2000

2500

3000

放量

（万

吨）

SO2decreased for 14.29% Ta

rget

500

1000

1500

二氧化硫

排放

In 2010, SO2 emission dropped to the level of 2003-2004 COD

decreased easures

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Change in COD emission

for 12.45% Me

licy

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

（万吨）

Change in COD emission

Pocts

1 150

1,200

1,250

1,300

,

COD排放量（

COD emissions maintained a decreasing trajectory

Effe

on

1,100

1,150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

g j y

Conclusi

35 COD SO2

492.7

18768030 Ta

rget

187

254.9109.4

25

easures

207.9

31051820

15on

Me

licy

141.434.7

1414

2549 2184.715

10Mill

ion

to Pocts

1414 1237.9

5

Effe

on

2005 2010 2005 2010

Conclusi

Target

2. Measures of reduction:  pollution reduction projects and economic ea

sures

reduction projects and economic restructuring contributed most to the 

Me

licy

achievement Pocts

Effe

onCo

nclusi

Pollution reduction projects contribute most to the i i d tiemission reductions

COD Pollution reduction SO2 Pollution reduction

结构减排

监管减排1.9%

Economic Restructuring

Economic

Management

Target

结构减排19.55%

结构减排30.9% pollution

Restructuring

easures

工程减排

pollution reduction projects

reduction projects Me

licy

工程减排80.45%

工程减排67.2% Po

cts

S t t t l t t d f Desulphurization projects for coal-fired power

Effe

on

10

Sewage treatment plants accounted for 58.5% of the total reduction of COD, and 73% of abatement

Desulphurization projects for coal-fired power plants accounted for 59.5% of the total SO2 reduction, and 88.5% of abatement projects

Conclusi

Big breakthrough were made in b t t j t

• By the end of 2010, a total of 2,832 urban sewage treatment facilities were

abatement projectsurban sewage treatment facilities were built in various cities and counties across China, an increase of around 2,000 during the 11th Five‐year Plan

Target

• Daily treatment capacity reached 125 million cubic meters

• Sewage treatment in cities has i d f 52% i 2005 t 77% i ea

sures

increased from 52% in 2005 to 77% in 2010

Me

licy

• By 2010, desulphurization facilities had been established for coal‐fired power plants with a total capacity of 578 

Pocts

p p ymillion kw (an increase of 532 million kw in the 11th Five Year Plan)

• The proportion of thermal power 

Effe

on

generation units with desulphurization equipment increased from 12% in 2005 to 82.6% in 2010 Co

nclusi

At provincial level, reduction achieved through j i d l il

90.00 

100.00 

%

COD 70 00

80.00 

90.00 

100.00 

城市污水厂

projects occupied a large percentile

20 00

30.00 

40.00 

50.00 

60.00 

70.00 

80.00 

10 00

20.00 

30.00 

40.00 

50.00 

60.00 

70.00 

Target

0.00 

10.00 

20.00 

工程治理削减比例% 结构调整削减比例%

0.00 

10.00 

污水厂工程占总削减量比例% 工业治理工程占总削减量比例%

easures

COD: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Yunnan and Xinjiang Production& Construction Corps: over 90%; 8 provinces including Guangdong, G i h Ji Zh ji 80 90%

Municipal waste water treatment plants:waste water treatment plants in 20 provinces achieved 50% of the provinces’

ll COD d ti B iji Ti ji

Me

licy

80.0090.00 

100.00 

SO2

Guizhou, Jiangsu, Zhejiang: 80-90% overall COD production. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangdong and Chongqing Achieved over 80%

Pocts

• SO2: Tianjin and Hainan: over 90%

• Beijing, Zhejiang, Guizhou, Xinjiang, Shandong and Gansu: 80‐90%

20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 

Effe

on

0.00 10.00 

工程治理削减比例% 结构调整削减比例%  Conclusi

Construction of pollution reduction projects exceeded the planed target

COD exceeded 1.3 SO2 exceeded Waste water treatment exceeded

Desulpharized coal fired facility exceededmillion tons the original plan

by 49%treatment exceeded

by 20 million tonsfired facility exceeded

by 177 million kw

Target

430 880 65355.78

easures

Me

licy

Pocts

11th FYP Targets Actual Completed

Effe

onCo

nclusi

phase-out of outdated production capacity d d th t texceeded the target

超预期53.60% 超预期11.72% 超预期24.78% 超预期28.20% 超预期16.83%

76809346

3846686311172

Target

easures

超预期20.62% 超预期11.23% 超预期12.50% 超预期40% 超预期50%

Me

licy

18072330155 2813

Pocts

Effe

onCo

nclusi

3. Assessment of the comprehensive policy Target

measures: Using logic framework and traffic lights methods to analyze the Comprehensive ea

sures

g y pWork Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction issued by the State Council to

Me

licy

Reduction issued by the State Council, to decompose it into an objective, 3 goals, 12 major

d 62 ifi ti

Pocts

measures and 62 verifications

Effe

onCo

nclusi

Set up a government energy saving and emission reduction target responsibility system

38 green lights, 16 yellow lights and 8 red lights

Allocate responsibilities to local t d bili ti i ti fgovernment and mobilize participation of

local governments Target

gAll provinces allocated environmental targets to governments of lower level. Governments at lover level

easures

were responsible for the environment within the boundary of their jurisdictionT t ll t d f l l t l l d th

Me

licy

Targets were allocated from level to level, and the responsibility is described clearly. For the first time local governments shoulder the environment

Pocts

local governments shoulder the environment responsibility by lawSet up a series of supportive policies

Effe

onSet up a series of supportive policies

Conclusi

Implement electricity price policy that p y p p yencourages desulfurization

二、政策措施评估

Comprehensive policy system represented by desulpharized electricity price ensures

评

by desulpharized electricity price ensures enforcement of emission reduction Ta

rget

• improved the price, financial and tax polices so as they are in favor of energy saving and emission reduction, and set up a 

li i li t t t ll ti d ti easures

preliminary policy system t support pollution reduction • Improved the waste water treatment fee system nation‐wide

• Adjusted export tax reimbursement, industrial permit, loan, tax, trade and 

Me

licy

j p , p , , ,safety production supervision polices

• 1.5 cent per unit subsidy for on‐grid electricity price, more stringent emission fee standard on SO2, green electricity dispatch policy, and total emissions

Pocts

fee standard on SO2, green electricity dispatch policy, and total emissions control for the electricity sector

• More stringent phase‐by‐phase emission standards for selected regions and sectors

Effe

onsectors 

Conclusi

large resources input insures the completion f hof the emission reduction targets

• In the 11th FYP period 816 billion Yuan were spent  Target

p pon emission reduction projects• construction costs reached 455 billion Yuan ea

sures

• operation costs reached 361 billion Yuan

• Input from central government revenue reached

Me

licy

Input from central government revenue reached 166.7 billion Yuan, almost 3 times of the input in the 10th FYP period; non‐governmental input

Poctsthe 10th FYP period; non governmental input 

reached to over 2,000 billion Yuan Effe

onCo

nclusi

Target

4.Pollution reduction achieved co‐benefits easures

4.Pollution reduction achieved co benefits

Me

licy

Pocts

Effe

onCo

nclusi

Intensity of pollutants in surface water h d dhas decreased

Target

easures

Me

licy

Pocts

– In 2010 the average permanganate index at 759 state‐

Effe

onIn 2010, the average permanganate index at 759 statecontrolled monitoring stations for surface water stood at 4.9 milligram/liter, a 31.9% decrease from that in 2005 Co

nclusi

Acid rain area has decreased2005年 2006年 2007年

Acid rain area has decreased

Target

easures

2008年 2009年2010年 M

elicy

Pocts

– The ratio of acid rain‐affected area to total national land 

Effe

on

area had dropped by 1.3 percentage points 

Conclusi

SO2 intensity in key environmental i i i h d li dprotection cities has declined

Target

easures

Me

licy

– The contribution of SO2 to acid rain has tended to decline given the emissions reduced. 

Variation Trend of SO2 Concentration in Key Environmental Protection Cities of 11th Five-Year Plan

Pocts

Average SO2 intensity in key environmental protection cities has declined by 26.3% compared with 2005

– One of the great lessons from the Beijing Olympics in terms of ozone reduction was the i t f i l i lit t l t d i d i lit d i th

Effe

onimportance of regional air quality control to producing good air quality during the competition. New regional coordinated control mechanism was explored and proved to be successful, also in Shanghai EXPO and Guangzhou Asian Games.

Conclusi

Intensity of COD and SO2 emission decreasedIntensity of COD and SO2 emission decreased

COD

Target

easures

Me

licy

SO2

Pocts

Effe

on

25

Conclusi

COD emission intensity in main sectors has a d i ddecreasing trend

450 8造纸及纸制品业

农副食品加工业

400

450

7

8 农副食品加工业

饮料制造业

有色金属矿采选业

食品制造业

水的生产和供应业

化学纤维制造业

Target

300

350

总产

值）

6

总产

值）

化学原料及化学制品制造业

医药制造业

非金属矿采选业

纺织业

皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品业

燃气生产和供应业 easures

250

度（

千克

/亿元

总

4

5

度（

千克

/亿元

总 木材加工及木竹藤棕草制品业

黑色金属矿采选业

煤炭开采和洗选业

黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业

电力、热力的生产和供应业

石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业

Me

licy

150

200

造纸行

业排

放强

3

其他行

业排

放强 非金属矿物制品业

有色金属冶炼及压延加工业

纺织服装、鞋、帽制造业

仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业

印刷业和记录媒介的复制

金属制品业

Pocts

50

100

1

2金属制品业

橡胶制品业

石油和天然气开采业

交通运输设备制造业

专用设备制造业

通用设备制造业

烟草制品业

Effe

on

260

2005年 2006年 2007年 2008年 2009年

0

烟草制品业

塑料制品业

文教体育用品制造业

电气机械及器材制造业

家具制造业

通信计算机及其他电子设备制造业 Conclusi

SO2 emission intensity in main sectors has a d i t d

700 16电力、热力的生产和供应业

非金属矿物制品业

造纸及纸制品业

decreasing trend

60014

造纸及纸制品业

有色金属冶炼及压延加工业

非金属矿采选业

化学原料及化学制品制造业

黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业

石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业

有色金属矿采选业

Target

500

总产

值）

10

12

总产

值）

有色金属矿采选业

化学纤维制造业

黑色金属矿采选业

煤炭开采和洗选业

燃气生产和供应业

饮料制造业 easures

300

400

放强

度（

吨/亿

元

8

放强

度（

吨/亿

元 木材加工及木竹藤棕草制品业

食品制造业

纺织业

橡胶制品业

医药制造业

农副食品加工业

Me

licy

200

300

电力

行业

排放

4

6

其他

行业

排放 农副食品加

水的生产和供应业

皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品业

专用设备制造业

通用设备制造业

石油和天然气开采业

仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业

Pocts

1002

4 仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业

烟草制品业

金属制品业

纺织服装、鞋、帽制造业

交通运输设备制造业

塑料制品业

家具制造业

Effe

on

270

2005年 2006年 2007年 2008年 2009年

0

家具制造业

电气机械及器材制造业

文教体育用品制造业

印刷业和记录媒介的复制

通信计算机及其他电子设备制造业 Conclusi

Pollution targets has positively affected the upgrading of industrial structure

The proportion of newThe share of thermal the proportion of large-

upgrading of industrial structure

The proportion of new type dry-process

cement clinker yield

power generation units with total installed capacity

of 300 GW and above

the proportion of largesized blast furnace over

1000 cubic meters Target

easures

Me

licy

Pocts

Effe

onCo

nclusi

Assessment ConclusionAssessment Conclusion• In the 11th Five‐year Plan by focusing on the two compulsory• In the 11 Five‐year Plan, by focusing on the two compulsory 

in emission reduction targets, and taking account of environmental quality improvement, implementation of 

Target

q y p , pgreater accountability for achieving environmental protection goals, adopting a package of economic measures such as 

l f l f l h

easures

special price for electricity from power plants with desulphurization equipment, a sewage and garbage treatment fee and greater efforts in constructing sewage treatment

Me

licy

fee, and greater efforts in constructing sewage treatment plants and desulphurization facilities in power plants, emission reductions have been achieved which normally 

Poctsy

occur in the later stage of industrialization.– Short‐term emission reduction target was successfully implemented 

Effe

on

– a positive contribution was made to the ultimate national goals of economic restructuring and transformation of the growth pattern.

Conclusi

Issues still need attentionIssues still need attention

Target

easures

Me

licy

• Although energy consumption intensity has shown a declining 

Pocts

trajectory it is still much higher than that in the developed countries. Energy consumption for per unit GDP is twice of the orld a erage

Effe

onthe world average 

Conclusi

Issues still need attentionIssues still need attention30

35万吨

• 1. Control the newly added emission and maintain the

15

20

25

Target

maintain the achievement from the 11th FYP is still the 

0

5

10

easures

largest challenge工业COD新增量 万吨 生活COD新增量 万吨

60

70

Me

licy

30

40

50 Pocts

‐10

0

10

20

Effe

on10

电力SO2新增量（万吨） 非电SO2新增量（万吨）

Conclusi

Issues still need attentionIssues still need attention

• 2. Special attention needs to be paid to emission reduction measures implemented upfront of a project, such as increasing the standards of production permits for industries

Target

increasing the standards of production permits for industries, expanding water saving measures, increase the use of pre‐treated coal ea

sures

• 3. Economic restructuring, phasing out of outdated 

Me

licy

g, p gproduction capacity and clean production still needs to be improved.  the proportion increasing of service industry in 

Pocts

total GDP is 0.5 percentage point less than planned, the percentile of heavy industry in the added value of industry has increased from 68 1% to 70 9%

Effe

onhas increased from 68.1% to 70.9%.

Conclusi

Issues still need attentionIssues still need attention

• 4. To explore consolidated multi‐stakeholder actions involving government, enterprises and the society.  Reduce the use of administrative measures in economic restructuring

Target

the use of administrative measures in economic restructuring so as to reduce the costs. Industrial policies should be longer vision and more collaborating. Adjust stimulating  policies to  ea

sures

g j g prestrain the bounce of high pollution, high energy consuming sectors. Further improve the effects of restructuring.

Me

licy

• 5.  Environment investment has a great impact on COD reduction, but the structure of investment has a less impact 

it hi h h th t ll ti d ti i l

Pocts

on it, which shows that pollution reduction were mainly achieved through large volume of financial input.  attention needs to be paid to the cost‐effectiveness of the pollution

Effe

onneeds to be paid to the cost effectiveness of the pollution reduction projects.

Conclusi

There is a need of research on a medium- to long-term road map and major policies

• To follow up, the Task Force should focus on developing a medium‐ to long‐term road map for  Ta

rget

emission reduction. – Priorities should be given to phased implementation of 

easures

pollutants types, the scope of pollution control, appropriate measures, policy mechanisms

Ph d li ti f i i d ti i t l

Me

licy

– Phased realization of emissions reduction, environmental quality improvement, environmental risk prevention, human health protection maintaining eco‐systems and

Pocts

human health protection, maintaining eco systems and other major strategic tasks.

– Major preparatory policy research

Effe

onj p p y p y

Conclusi