Assessing the Value of U.S. Army International Activities

Jefferson P. Marquis

August 31, 2004

21 ISMOR Conference

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What Are Army International Activities?

• Army International Activities (AIA) make up a subset of security cooperation or military engagement

– They encompass all non-combat activities involving foreign military and government officials

– They include Army staff talks, equipment sales and training, multinational exercises and materiel technical cooperation

• Army conducts more international activities than other services

– But does not get much credit from the rest of DoD for its AIA efforts

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Foreign Militaries

Whence Comes AIA Guidance and Funding?

OSD SC GuidanceFunding: CTR, WIF, etc.

HQDA Guidance (AIAP)

Funding: Title 10

COCOM TSC StrategyFunding: TCA

ConductActivities

DOS GuidanceFunding: Title 22, Other Countries

DSCA GuidanceFunding: FMS, FMF, IMET, etc.

ASA(ALT) GuidanceFunding: Title 10

ArmyFunctionalCommands

ArmyFunctionalCommands

Army Service Component Commands

ConductActivities

Provide Security Assistance

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OSD

Army Service Component Commands ASA(ALT)

State

Combatant Commands

Army FunctionalCommandActivities

IN-COUNTRY Events

Current AIA Assessment System

PBBCriteria

CountryAssessments

Army FunctionalCommandActivities

OSDSCGAIAP

OSD SCG

HQDA G-3

AIAPMOE

DSCA

Perform.Summary

MOEsTBD

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Why Is the Army Interested in AIA Assessment?

• To meet Army, OSD, and (possibly) OMB metrics requirements

• To demonstrate how AIA contributes to Army and national security objectives

• To indicate which AIA operations must be changed to improve security cooperation outcomes

• To know the full range of AIA available to achieve Army and national goals

•To account for AIA personnel and funding, and suggest where AIA resources might be better employed

•To uncover barriers that hinder execution and success of AIA

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Three Phases of AIA Assessment Project

• Phase 1: Laying the conceptual foundation for AIAKSS (LAST YEAR)

• Phase 2:

– Building AIAKSS

– Testing AIAKSS

• Phase 3: Expanding and employing AIAKSS (NEXT YEAR?)

(THIS YEAR)

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Phase One Products

• Developed a set of AIA Goals – the “ENDS”

• Developed categories to organize AIAs – the “WAYS”

• Developed output and outcome indicators to show linkages between WAYS and ENDS

• Designed a tool to collect data from AIA officials

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AIA Ways Professional education &

training

Military exercises

Military-to-Military exchanges

Military-to-Military contacts

International support / Treaty Compliance

Standing forums

Materiel transfer (FMS) &Tech training

RDT & E programs

AIA Ends

Bolster Assurance

Promote Democracy

Establish Relationships

Improve Cooperation

Promote Transformation

Improve Interoperability

Bolster Defense Capabilities

Ensure Access

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Indicators Link WAYS to ENDSThe Ends:

(From AIAP, TAP, DPG, QDR, & NSS)

The Ways:

(FromAIAP &TAP)

Education& Training

Exercises

Exchanges

Mil-to-Milcontacts

Internationalsupport

Forums

FMS+techtraining

RDT&Eprograms

Access TransformEstablishRelations

CooperationAssureDemocracy& Stability

Bolster Defense

Capacities

Inter-Operate

Indicators

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Putting AIA Indicators in Context

Way: Education and Training

Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes

Money &Manpower

Classroom instruction, e.g., IMET

End:

CooperationNumber of Graduates

Alumni Networks

Indicators

SocializationCriteria

ExchangeCriteria

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Measuring Effectiveness of AIA Is An Ongoing Process

Activities Outputs Outcomes Ends

Do outputs produce desired outcomes?

Do outcomes contribute to ends?

Indicators Indicators

Measures of Performance

Measures of Effectiveness

Inputs

Do activities produce desired outputs?

Do inputs support activities?

1. Has end been achieved?

2. If not, are we measuring the end correctly?

3. If so, what are the impediments to achieving the end?

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Phases of AIA Assessment Project

• Phase 1: Laying the conceptual foundation for AIAKSS (LAST YEAR)

• Phase 2:

– Building AIAKSS

– Testing AIAKSS

• Phase 3: Expanding and employing AIAKSS (NEXT YEAR)

(THIS YEAR)

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AIAKSS Data Collection has Three Parts

• Part A – Background information on AIA

– Program/Activity name, description, and regions/countries covered

– Funding sources and value

• Part B – Output and Outcome info for assessment

– Select and rank AIA Goals and Ways

– Select and substantiate Output and Outcome indicators

• Part C – Challenges to Success

– Report challenges that hinder success

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AIAKSS Will Provide Useful Data to Army Planners and Managers

• AIAKSS will be accessible from around the world via the NIPRNET (later SIPRNET)

• AIA data will be aggregated annually at the program and command levels and submitted to HQDA

• Users will be able to search for specific AIA program descriptions, resources, associations, measures and challenges

• AIAKSS will retain search parameters for future use and sharing,

• present data in graphical and text formats, and

• permit data to easily transferred to Word and PPT documents

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We Selected Three Diverse Cases To Test Assessment Approach and AIAKSS

• National Guard State Partnership Program (NGB SPP)

• Army Medical Department (AMEDD)

• Army South (USARSO)

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We Tested Part B With NGB SPP Officials in MN, MD, KS

Approx. 500K

#1 Way: Military Contacts

#1 End:

Establish

Relations

Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes

State Contacts

Number of Contacts

Est’d New Points of Contact

Brought NewCountries IntoProfessionalNetwork

Rank of Contacts

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Phases of AIA Assessment Project

• Phase 1: Laying the conceptual foundation for AIAKSS (LAST YEAR)

• Phase 2:

– Building AIAKSS

– Testing AIAKSS

• Phase 3: Expanding and employing AIAKSS (NEXT YEAR)

(THIS YEAR)

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We Hope to Use AIAKIS to Evaluate Army’s Progress in Multinational Force Compatibility

• This study would address four central questions: 1. Is the appropriate mix of AIA being used to build MFC? 2. What are the obstacles to building MFC and what might

be done to overcome them?  3. Are the appropriate measures and data available to

assess the effectiveness of AIA in building MFC?4. What new kinds of measures might be used to assess

MFC-related goals in the future?

• The results of this study would enable HQDA G-3 – To improve its policy guidance to Army officials charged

with executing MFC-related international activities and– To make recommendations to higher-level DoD officials

concerning the allocation of AIA resources so that they can better promote MFC goals

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Current AIAKSS Capabilities Could Be Expanded

Goals + AIA Categories Countries

Funding Programs Region and Countries

Outputs

Outcomes

CurrentAIAKSS

ties funding

to program

Possible Future Enhancements: •Link program assessments to countries •Tie funding to countries

Current Country Data:•Where AIA programs operate•AIA goals and Categories by country

AIAKSS Assessment

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We Have Additional Issues to Resolve

• Which AIA programs should be assessed?

• Who should provide AIA program information?

• At what level of aggregation should the data be provided?

• How should measurement targets be set?

• Who should have access to AIA information?

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BACK-UP SLIDES

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Selection Criteria for Indicators• Generally, we looked for indicators that would

• Leverage existing data and performance measures

• Reflect an activity’s strategic and political importance

• Provide a connection to AIA goals

• Specifically, we looked for

• Output indicators that are immediate results of AIA

Usually products of EXCHANGES that improve U.S.-foreign country ties in the near-term, e.g., graduates, visits, meetings

• Outcome indicators that are results or by-products of these exchanges

Usually derived from a SOCIALIZATION process involving changes in foreign perceptions about working together with the U.S. over the long-term, e.g., new capabilities, knowledge, relationships, standards

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NGB-IACrystal City

One SPP Coordinator per State

NGB Test Case Is the Furthest Along

Total SPP Coverage:45 countries39 states3 territories (Puerto Rico, Guam, DC)

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Part A Data: Funding sources and value by “Activity”

StateGAKSMNTNMDUTTXNY

Funding SourcesCTR, MMF, TCA, OtherTCA, CTR, IMET, JCTPTCA, MMF, OtherTCA, MMF, WIFTCA, MMF, OtherTCA, MMF, OtherTCA, MMF, TX StateTCA

TotalN/AN/AN/A88k525k50k500k130k

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Number of States (out of 8) That Selected Each Goal

7

5

44

4

4

22

Establish Relations

Promote Democracy andStabilityAssure Allies

Improve Cooperation

Improve Interoperability

Improve DefenseCapabilitiesPromote Transformation

Secure Access

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Categories of Activities Chosen by States to Establish Relations

6

1

1

1

Mil-to-Mil Contacts

Mil-to-Mil Exchanges

Military Exercises

Ed. And Training

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Number of Contacts

with Target Country

Highest Rank of Contacts

with Target Country

Chosen Output and Outcome Indicators for Establish Relations and Military Contacts

Contacts established institutional points of contact

Contact prepared Host Nation for tactical peacekeeping ops

Contacts drew foreign country into an existing formal or informal professional network

Outputs Outcomes

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AIA Goals Are Embedded In OSD Security Cooperation Guidance

• BUILD DEFENSE RELATIONSHIPS THAT PROMOTE SPECIFIC U.S. INTERESTS

Bolster Assurance Promote Democracy Establish Relationships Improve Cooperation

• DEVELOP ALLIED AND FRIENDLY MILITARY CAPABILITIES FOR SELF DEFENSE AND COALITION OPERATIONS

Promote Transformation Improve Interoperability Bolster Defense Capabilities

• PROVIDE U.S. FORCES WITH PEACETIME AND CONTINGENCY ACCESS AND EN ROUTE INFRASTRUCTURE

Ensure Access

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AIA Activity Categories

• Professional education & training

• Military exercises

• Military-to-Military exchanges

• Military-to-Military contacts

• International support / Treaty Compliance

• Standing forums

• Materiel transfer (FMS) & tech training

• RDT&E programs