Upload File

assessing the potential impacts of four climate change scenarios on the discharge of the simiyu...

  • Home
  • Documents
  • Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model
12
 International Journal of Water Sciences  Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model Research Article Alain Lubini 1 and Jan Adamowski 2,*  1 Department of Civil Engineering, Ecole Polytechni que de Montréal, Canada 2 Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, Ste. Anne de Bellevue, Quebec, Canada * Corresponding author E-mail: [email protected] ȱ Received 13 Feb 2013; Accepted 26 Mar 2013 DOI: 10.5772/56453 © 2013 Lubini and Adamowski; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstractȱ Theȱ Soilȱ andȱ Waterȱ Assessment ȱ Toolȱ (SWAT) ȱ was ȱ usedȱ toȱ exploreȱ the ȱ potential ȱ impactȱ of ȱ fourȱ climateȱ changeȱ scenarios ȱ onȱ discharge ȱ fromȱ the ȱ Simiyuȱ Riverȱ inȱ Tanzania, ȱ locatedȱ inȱ the ȱ Lakeȱ Victoriaȱ watershedȱ inȱ Africa. ȱ The ȱ SWATȱ model ȱ usedȱ inȱ thisȱ studyȱ was ȱ calibratedȱ andȱ verifiedȱ  byȱ comparingȱ model ȱ outputȱ withȱ historic ȱ streamȱ flowȱ dataȱ for ȱ 1973Ȭ1976ȱ as ȱ well ȱ asȱ 1970Ȭ1971.ȱ SWATȱ was ȱ operated ȱ atȱ dailyȱ and ȱ monthlyȱ timeȱ stepsȱ duringȱ  both ȱ calibrationȱ and ȱ verification. ȱ For ȱ the ȱ dailyȬtimeȱ stepȱ verification, ȱ the ȱ modelȱ hadȱ aȱ Nashȱ Sutcliffeȱ coefficient ȱ of ȱ efficiency ȱ (NSE) ȱ of ȱ 0.52ȱ andȱ aȱ correlationȱ coefficient ȱ (R 2 )ȱ of ȱ 0.72.ȱ For ȱ the ȱ monthlyȱ timeȬstepȱ verification, ȱ the ȱ recorded ȱ NSEȱ andȱ R 2 ȱ valuesȱ wereȱ 0.66ȱ andȱ 0.70.ȱ Inȱ developing ȱ climateȱ changeȱ scenarios ȱ withinȱ the ȱ general ȱ patternsȱ definedȱ  byȱ the Intergovernmental ȱ Panel ȱ onȱ Climate ȱ Change, ȱ predictedȱ increases ȱ inȱ CO2ȱ concentrations ȱ wereȱ implemented ȱ withinȱ the ȱ constraints ȱ of ȱ the ȱ models ȱ parameterisation ȱ byȱ raising, ȱ inȱ aȱ seasonally Ȭ specific ȱ manner, ȱ theȱ values ȱ of ȱ two ȱ proxyȱ parameters: ȱ dailyȱ  base line ȱ temperature ȱandȱ precipitation. ȱ Underȱ all ȱ scenarios, ȱ Simiyuȱ Riverȱ discharge ȱ increasedȱ (24Ȭ45%),ȱ showingȱ the ȱ highest ȱ increase ȱ inȱ the ȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ (Marchȱ toȱ May), ȱ withȱ the ȱ greatest ȱ increase ȱ occurringȱ duringȱ the ȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ (Marchȱ toȱ May). ȱ Dischargeȱ was ȱ influenced ȱ toȱ aȱ muchȱ greaterȱ degree ȱ  byȱ increasesȱ inȱ precipitation ȱ rather ȱ thanȱ  byȱ temperature. ȱ The ȱ increase ȱ inȱ riverȱ flowȱ predictedȱ  byȱ the ȱ modelȱ suggests ȱ thatȱ the ȱ potential ȱ increase ȱ inȱ heavyȱ floodȱ damageȱ duringȱ the ȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ will ȱ increase, ȱ whichȱ could, ȱ inȱ turn,ȱ haveȱ significant ȱ adverse ȱ effects ȱ onȱ infrastructure, ȱ humanȱ health, ȱ andȱ the ȱ environment ȱ inȱ the ȱ watershed. ȱ Theȱ SWATȱ predictions ȱ provideȱ anȱ important ȱ insight ȱ intoȱ the ȱ magnitude ȱ ofȱ streamȱ flowȱ changesȱ thatȱ might ȱ occurȱ inȱ the ȱ Simiyuȱ Riverȱ inȱ Tanzaniaȱ as ȱ aȱ result ȱ of ȱ futureȱclimatic ȱchange. ȱ ȱ Keywordsȱ Climateȱ Change,ȱ Modelling,ȱ Riverȱ Flow,ȱ SWAT,ȱSimiyuȱRiver,ȱAfricaȱ ȱ 1 Alain Lubini and Jan Adamowski: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate C hange Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model www.intechopen.com ARTICLE www.intechopen.com Int. j. water sci., 2013, Vol. 2, 1:2013

Upload: guidoangelini

Post on 03-Apr-2018

215 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

Report

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 1/12

Page 2: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 2/12

Page 3: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 3/12

Page 4: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 4/12

Page 5: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 5/12

Page 6: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 6/12

Page 7: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 7/12

Page 8: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 8/12

Page 9: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 9/12

Page 10: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 10/12

Page 11: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 11/12

Page 12: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

7/28/2019 Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/assessing-the-potential-impacts-of-four-climate-change-scenarios-on-the-discharge 12/12


TAARIFA YA MKOA WA SIMIYU KWA RAIS MSTAAFU WA …

The Swat Story-Complete Document

SWAT - SD.HS SWAT-SD1 SWAT-SD2 セミドライ SWAT-SD2 SWAT-SD3 SWAT-HS1 SWAT-HS2 SWAT-HS3 Aエリア GS黒 MFXジャージ黒 Bエリア GS黒 又は MFXジャージ Cエリア GS黒

Swat Market

SWAT VALLEY- THE METAMORPHOSIS

Type I SWAT Operator’s School Course Description · Type I SWAT Operator’s Course Description 4 Program Overview The preparedness of State and Local SWAT Teams in the U.S. is

Long Term Hydrologic Modeling for Simiyu … Long Term Hydrologic Modeling for Simiyu Watershed, Tanzania using Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) Ahmad M. Salah 1 Deogratias

CURRICULUM VITAE PERSONAL DATA Names: Dr. Gelas Simiyu

The yousafzai state of swat

Hydrologic Response Unit Routing in SWAT to Simulate ...€¦ · SWAT watershed configuration and SWAT engine based on the numerical model VFSMOD applied to South-Korean conditions

SWAT CUP SWATCalibration and Uncertainty Programs...SWAT‐CUP: SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs ‐ A User Manual. Eawag 2015 3 DISCLAIMER This report documents SWAT‐CUP,

Conflict in the Swat Valley of Pakistan: Pakhtun …conflict.care2share.wikispaces.net/file/view/ORAKZAI Swat...Conflict in the Swat Valley of Pakistan: Pakhtun Culture and Peacebuilding

SIMIYU REGION INVESTMENT GUIDE · 2017. 7. 30. · Citibank, Stanbic, Exim have invested in Tanzania; 1.1.2 Why should one invest in Simiyu Region? Simiyu is among the new regions

SWAT TACTICS

MKOA WA SIMIYU

Swat slids

Application the SWAT model for - SWAT | Soil and Water Assessment Tool

Garnets from the Upper Swat Hornblendic Group, Swat ... · MINERALOGICAL MAGAZINE, MARCH 1975, VOL. 40, PP. 53-8 Garnets from the Upper Swat Hornblendic Group, Swat District, Pakistan

Łukasz Kokoszkiewicz. EnviroGRIDS project overview SWAT explanation SWAT gridification assumptions Parallelization results SWAT model parallelization

MKOA WA SIMIYU HALMASHAURI YA WILAYA YA MASWA …

Swat Prezentare

Analisis SWAT

SIG556 CLASSIC SWAT SIG556 - pdf.rockwellarms.compdf.rockwellarms.com/SalesFlyer/556-swat-Sell.pdf · CLASSIC SWAT - SEMI-AUTOMATIC RIFLE SIG556 CLASSIC SWAT features 5.56 x 45mm

A case for ERM Presentation by: Stella Simiyu Chief ... · A case for ERM Presentation by: Stella Simiyu Chief Operating Officer, Sentinel Africa Consulting Ltd Wednesday, 5th July

SAP Workflow SWAT (WF-SWAT) Accelerated Automation Spurrell EN.pdf · SAP Workflow SWAT (WF-SWAT) Accelerated Automation ... take your SAP business processes to the next ... until

Spanish Swat

Policy Swat

Swat Operation

Osdop swat

Swat Travelog

Swat Result

SWATmf - jguzman.infojguzman.info/SWATmf/documentation/SWATmf-CHPTR-1.pdf · SWAT-MODFLOW model. The SWAT-MODFLOW model is a single application integrating or coupling the SWAT and

Development & Application of SWAT Models to Support the …graham.umich.edu/media/...and-application-of-SWAT-models-to-support... · Development & Application of SWAT Models to Support

Type III SWAT Operator’s School Course DescriptionThe Type III SWAT Operator’s Course is the most comprehensive SWAT program ever to be offered to state and local agencies. The

FEATURE STORY SWAT!SWAT! SWAT! - Canada's History