assessing the effect of hurricane sandy projects …...hurricane sandy makes landfall, atlantic...
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2015 DELAWARE ESTUARY SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENT SUMMIT,
JANUARY 26TH, 2015 PETER MURDOCH, SCIENCE ADVISOR,
RACHEL MUIR, SCIENCE ADVISOR, U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Assessing the Effect of Hurricane Sandy Projects on Resilience in the Delaware River
Watershed -- (a status update)
“Resilience” – What does it mean?
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“Resistance” – not the same!
Resilience -- Ecological and Social Meaning & Context Ecological -- measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships between populations or state variables (Hollings,1973) Social --The ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political, and environmental change (Alger, 2000). Policy-directed -- “… the ability to anticipate, prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to and recover rapidly from disruptions.” (Executive Order 13653, November 1, 2012)
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Resilience Defined -- II
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Ecosystem response to perturbation: y axis = resilience, x axis = perturbation:
Hurricane Sandy DOI Response – A Calendar • October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy makes landfall, Atlantic City, NJ --
Nearly 70 national parks and dozens of wildlife refuges damaged:; • March 19, 2013 The Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013,
appropriated $786.7 million for DOI to rebuild and repair its assets and make strategic investments in future coastal resilience;
• May 7, 2013, DOI released $475.25 million for 234 projects; • August 12, 2013, DOI selected the National Fish and Wildlife
Foundation (NFWF) to administer the $100 million for the Hurricane Sandy Coastal Resiliency Competitive Grant Program, funding 53 projects;
• June 16, 2014, DOI announces projects selected for the Coastal Resiliency Competitive Grant Program
• 2015 – Decisions on use of remaining funds (monitoring, metrics development, resilience assessment)
• 2016 – Majority of Projects due for completion.
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Federal-Wide Goal:
“Quantifying benefits of resilience projects and calculating resilience project return on investment in order to better inform future public spending”
Federal Disaster Recovery Coordination Workplan, 2013
DOI Metrics Expert Group
Challenges in Measuring Resilience
• Projects already started • Need metrics to detect short-term change in resilience (for key
coastal features, subregions, air/water/land processes?) • Need a baseline of data for detecting change– also fiscally
impossible unless leverage capabilities of multiple partners; • Need better-developed socio-economic metrics of coastal
resilience; • Need a common, collaborative data-management and sharing
strategy (shared protocols); • Detection of changes in resilience take time – need strategies
for early detection and long-term monitoring.
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The DOI Metrics Expert Group (A team of scientists and socio-economists charged by DOI
to scope an assessment of changes in coastal resilience resulting from DOI-sponsored projects)
Currently in review:
Recommendations for assessing improvements in coastal resilience from projects within the DOI Hurricane Sandy
Mitigation and Resiliency Program
DOI Metrics Expert Group
Assessing Resilience– the DOI Metrics Strategy Task 1: Select core metrics for
the restoration and research projects (for 140 restoration and science projects );
Task 2: Determine data and information gaps:
Task 3: Establish baseline conditions for individual projects (rapid data collection as needed)
Task 4: Design and complete the regional assessment
Task 5: Design data management strategy and long-term monitoring for status and trends
Geographic Example: Resilience of Jamaica Bay
- Determine: • Key coastal features, socio-
economic factors & stressors; • Core metrics for wetlands,
communities, beach/dune, etc); • Gaps in must be filled to assess
changes in resilience; - Analyze: • Nest project measurements in
regional models; • Use pre-post measurements &
model applications to define & detect change in resilience.
• Track future changes
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Restoration plan within Milford Neck Conservation area: modeled under current conditions and with potential restoration alternatives
Restoring the beach and dune system that protects Mispillion Harbor
DE Bayshore Coastal Resiliency: Mispillion to Milford Neck (43281)
One of 7 NFWF projects in Delaware Bay Sub-region,
and many regional projects that include the Delaware
sub-region
Entire proposed network will consist of approximately 1,050 sites: − 76 non-USGS stations
− 530 temporary storm-tide sensors
− 117 coastal stations/tidal streams
− 85 rapid-deployment gages
− 32 tide crest stage gages
− 45 tide gages
− 112 surveyed reference points
− 63 temporary barometric-pressure sensors
Pre-emptive network- brackets pre-installed Northeast Coast from North Carolina to Maine Nor’easters and tropical storms of varying
magnitude Data distributed through an online mapper”
Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) Network Topical Example:
Our Short-term Ambitions… • Fill baseline data and study gaps for immediate action
on projects underway; • Seamless measurements and data management with
other resilience assessment efforts; • Link current or historical data where possible for early
trends detection; • Comparison data among projects with similar goals; • Conduct an integrated, resilience assessment.
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Our Wish List
• Secure additional funds for multi-scale, interdisciplinary pre- and post-project monitoring;
• Begin to apply efficient monitoring strategies, using alternative accelerated-assessment methods.
• Track/anticipate resilience change across the region
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How do we build a Multi-scale Data Framework?
Science within an organizational framework
Based on CENR Framework for Environmental Monitoring and Research, 1997
Multiple issues through common
measurements
Fine Scale Data which can help – Urban Waters Federal Partnership
Baltimore Partnership: http://water.bniajfi.org/map/
Honestly … This won’t be easy
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World Meteorological Organization , 1997(GCOS, GTOS, IOOS) Global Hierarchical Observing Strategy (GHOST)
Integration across programs, disciplines, space, and time
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Proposed network consists of about 1,000 sites: 62 Non-USGS Stations 103 USGS Long-Term Coastal/Tidal Stream Stations 60 Temporary Rapid-Deployment Gage Locations 566 Temporary Storm-Tide Sensor Locations 193 Temporary Wave-Height Sensor Locations 104 Temporary Barometric-Pressure Sensor Locations Not all stations will be fitted with sensors for any one storm.
SWaTH Network Design and Development
DOI Metrics Expert Group Science Project Case Study: Surge, Wave, and Tide
Hydrodynamics Network (SWaTH) • Compile surge metrics
for surge/wave baseline data;
• Document weaknesses of existing models for varied coastal features;
• Nest an enhanced network of sensors in existing tide and surge network from Maine to Virginia.
DOI Metrics Expert Group Science Project Case Study – (continued)
• Apply new data to improve wave and surge models, and real-time data to improve early warning systems;
• Quantify reduction in model uncertainty, early warning enhancements as proof of improved resilience.
DOI Metrics Expert Group DMEG First Products First products completed (past 2 months): • First-cut recommended metrics for measuring resilience in
specific coastal features, • Grouped DOI projects into common categories (geographic
and topical) for assigning metrics and comparing results; • Recommended an assessment strategy (in review); • Recommended a strategy for filling gaps in baseline data and
research required for the assessment; • Recommended a strategy for earliest detection of resilience
improvement from project activity, at multiple scales over time.