asrr conference: engineered resilient systems panel ensuring engineered resilient total-ship...
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ASRR Conference: Engineered Resilient Systems Panel
Ensuring Engineered Resilient
Total-Ship Systems:
Using More Physics-Based
Design Tools in Early Concept DesignBob Keane, Ship Design USA, Inc.
5 October 2011
Opinions are those of the author and not those of any Government agency or program.
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Inseparable Resilience IssuesDr. Robert Neches, OASD(R&E), 31 March 2011
Rapidly Adapting to User Needs– Warfighter / Engineer Information Exchange
Accelerated Needs Exploration: Conceptual Design– Co-Evolution of ConOps & Systems for Multiple
Alternative Futures
Accelerated Design-to-Build: Capability Engineering
Advances must be embedded in tools and environments accessible to Government and industry – Systems 2020 2
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5/3-6/05 Summer Naval Surface Ship Design Program 3
• A “system of systems”: Operate in battle force with older and newer ships
• Very low quantities, high unit cost, long lives• Extremely complex product: millions of piece parts• No prototypes, first ship(s) must be fully operational• Government develops combat/weapons/communications
systems• Government ultimately assumes responsibility for meeting
requirements• Lack of commercial shipbuilding industrial base to build upon• Intense Congressional oversight
Nature of the Product-A Warship
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5/3-6/05 Summer Naval Surface Ship Design Program 4
USS MIDWAY 50-Year Global Crisis Response
ItalyElections
1947
Lebanon1950
Earnest Will1987–1988
Desert Shield /Desert Storm
1990–91
IranianHostage
Crisis1979
AfghanistanInvasion 1979
Laos1961
Vietnam1965–1975
PhilippineCoup1989
Quemoy-Matsu1958
Korean TreeIncident
1976
Fiery Vigil1991
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The General
Board
Naval War
CollegeOpNav
The Bureaus
The General Board
Naval War
CollegeOpNav
The Bureaus
The Fleet
Collaborative Innovation in Fleet Design,1922-1941
Agents of Innovation: The General Board and the Design of the Fleet That Defeated the Japanese Navy, John T. Kuehn, Naval Institute Press, 2008
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MIT'S VON HIPPEL: INNOVATION, LEAD USER ANALYSIS, CUTTING CONCEPT TIME & COST
“…sometimes it's a waste of time and resources to try to understand customer needs…
sometimes it's less expensive and more efficient to
– let your customers define the needs,
– limit yourself to offering solutions, and
– let the customers design based on that.”
6
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Experience and the Right Tools Make A BIG Difference
1980s Reagan Buildup: Average Cost Growth for Average Cost Growth for Lead Ship was 10%**Lead Ship was 10%**– NAVSEA Highly
Experienced Ship Design Workforce
– User-Driven Design 1990/2000s Acquisition
Reform: Average Cost Average Cost Growth for Lead Ship was Growth for Lead Ship was 50%**50%**– Inexperienced Industry
Design Teams– Mfr.-Driven Design
Lack of Experience
Smart, Physics-Based Tools
ToolsTools
Highly Experienced
Smart, Physics-Based Tools
Rule-Based Tools
Lack of Experience
Rule-Based Tools
Highly Experienced
ExperienceExperience
** SEA 05C, June 2008
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Seaway Loads for Design of Surface Combatants: Rule-Based Design
Structural Design of FFG 7, CG 47, DDG 51 Classes
– Interested more in extreme loading conditions than actual loads which contribute to fatigue
– Worked with simplified loading envelopes
– Deterministic analysis resulted in scantlings for maximum load expected
– Highly random wave-induced loads were set of simplified hydrostatic loads under extreme seas
No Physics-Based Computations nor Seakeeping Model Tests to Determine Actual Seaway Loads
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Lack of Physics-Based Design Tools: Increased Ownership Costs
FFG 7 Class
– Hull girder doubler plates & ballast added
– Extensive deckhouse fatigue cracking
CG 52 Class (with VLS)
– Serious hull cracking and buckling problem
– Extensive superstructure fatigue cracking
DDG 51 Class
– Bow structure buckling and cracking issue
Operational loads exceeded rule-based design loads
$100M’s in repairs for sustaining service-lives
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““Outside-In DesignOutside-In Design”” – Start with Hull Form, Then Cram Everything into Hull
Hull is sized and shaped in early design based on:
– unreliable weight and area/volume estimates
– invalid assumption volume is “arrangeable”
– fallacy that limiting hull size limits ship costs
Need architectural tools to optimize arrangements
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Ships Possessing Greater Density Increase Production Cost
Ship Production hours increase with density and fall into predictable groupings.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Combatant Designs
Hybrid Designs
Commercial Designs
Legacy Hulls (Return Data) MPF(F) Notional Designs (Estimated Data)
Future L-Ship
LHD
LSD
LPD
LMSR FLO/FLO 3
FLO/FLO 2FLO/FLO 1
DISTRIBUTED
AVIATIONLOG-RO/RO
RO/RO
LHA
AOE
Auxiliary / Amphibs Designs
Future DDG
CG
DDG
FFG
No
rmal
ized
Fir
st S
hip
Pro
du
ctio
n (
Ho
urs
/ L
T)
Outfit Density (lbs / cu ft)
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WHERE WE NEED TO GO
According to an old proverb, if we do not change our direction, we might end up where we are headed.
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Systems Engineering – Ensure “Elegant” Designs*
Effective – it does what it is supposed to do
Efficient – to produce, operate, maintain
Robust - insensitive to variations in operations
Minimal Unintended Consequences – few band aids required to fix it in-service
*M. Griffin, Former NASA Director, Dean’s Seminar, SIT, “How do we fix System Engineering?”, 13 Dec 2010
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Toward Robust Systems Engineering: CREATE-SHIPS Project
Computational Research & Engineering for Acquisition Tools & Environments (CREATE):
– Replace empirical design with validated physics-based computational design
– Detect and fix design flaws early in design process
– Develop optimized designs for new concepts
– Begin system integration earlier in acquisition process
– Increase acquisition program flexibility and agility to respond to rapidly changing requirements
DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program
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Integrated Hydrodynamics Design Environment - IHDE
ASSET/LEAPS
GeometryProblemSet Up
ConditionsAutomatedGridding
SSFTSD
SMPVERES
AEGIRDAS BOOT
FREDYNTEMPEST
NavyFOAM LAMP
LOADSPOWERINGRESISTANCE MANEUVERING SEAKEEPING
AUTOMATED VALIDATION CASES
DESIGN STUDIES
SHAPE OPTIMIZATION
HPCMP
DRIVER/GUI
LOCALHPC
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Rapid Ship Design Environment (RSDE) Architecture
04/19/23 16
LEAPS Database
Rapid Ship Design EnvironmentGUI
ASSETSynthesis
Hullform Gen/Trans
IHDEHydro
ISAArrangement
SHCP-L Stability
Behavior ObjectZ
FloodingBehaviors
StructuresBehaviors
SeakeepingBehaviors
StabilityBehaviors
GEML KernelNURBSMath
Radial BasisMath
KrigingMath
Neural NetMath
Execution EngineMulti-Discipline Optimization Design Space Exploration
ResistanceBehaviors
Hullform Geometry
Arrangement Geometry
LEAPS API and Toolkits
Design Data Sets
BehaviorMan TktHulltran Tkt Hullgen TktSHCP-L Tkt
Structure Geometry
SubdivisionGeometry
04/19/23 16
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Modeling Warships in the Ocean Battle Space: Way Ahead Need to start co-evolution of ConOps & systems for
multiple alternative futures long before Milestone A
– Continuing process not tied to specific acquisitions
Need engineers to have unfettered access to warfighters
– Accelerated exploration during concept formulation
– Collaborative process exploring new/radical innovations
Need more physics-based tools for concept design with
– Timely pre-processing of system geometry
– Timely post-processing of results into decision aids
Need to reconstitute DoD S&T infrastructure
– DoD Labs resume their advanced development role
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CISD Overview - March 2010 18
Center of Innovation in Ship Design is:Center of Innovation in Ship Design is:The hub of a national collaborative enterprise combining the best ideas and experience of government, industry, and academia in ship design
CISD CISD MissionMission: : Ensure the Future Capability (People, Tools and Knowledge) of the Nation to Develop Innovative Ship Designs to Effectively Meet Defense Needs
Focus Areas: Navy of the Future• Develop Future Ship Designers• Knowledge Base / Design Tools & Processes• Future Ship & Ship Design Technology Needs• Develop Innovative Ship Design Concepts
Chartered by ONR, NAVSEA 05 & NSWCAPPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE