asleep at the wheel: oil addiction implications for urban transport

ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL: OIL ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL: OIL ADDICTION IMPLICATIONS FOR ADDICTION IMPLICATIONS FOR

URBAN TRANSPORTURBAN TRANSPORT

Nick Buchanan, GHD Australia, Sydney, Australia

Andre Dantas, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

Contextual elements of oil addiction

Oil addiction implications

Christchurch (New Zealand); and

Sydney (Australia).

Discussion

Conclusions

Outline


Low density LU;

Car-dependent cities;

Growing energy consumption;

Environmental problems (emissions and climate change)

TS

Flow Pattern

(FP)

AS

I

III

II

External factors

Cheap Oil


What happens to transport when oil starts to decline?

oil prices and oil price volatility skyrocketing?

Short-term crisis causing massive disruptions?

What about MITIGATION? What about MITIGATION?

According to Hirsch et al (2005), mitigation will require intensive efforts over several decades:

•no action before peak oil =>fuel deficit for more than 2 decades;

•action 10 years before peak oil => fuel deficit for 1 decade;

•action 20 years before peak oil =>possible to avoid shortfalls;

Oil Addiction implications

Oil supply scenario analysis

Existing travel demand patterns

Initiatives to improve urban

resilience

Implications

Assessment criteria





resilience

Implications

Assessment criteria

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pro

babi

lty (

%)

Peak Oil

5% Reduction

7.5% Reduction

10% Reduction

15% Reduction

20% Reduction

Fuel Shortage





resilience

Implications

Assessment criteria

Trips

Cost





resilience

Implications

Assessment criteria

PolicyPolicy Plan

Plan

Strategy

Strategy





resilience

Implications

Assessment criteria

How well is it likely to How well is it likely to implement useful mitigation implement useful mitigation

measures?measures?

Oil Addiction implicationsChristchurch

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

S Peak Production 0.0% 37.8% 79.2% 94.9% 99.0% 100%

C

E

7% Voluntary Reduction 0.0% 3.5% 52.4% 88.4% 98.1% 99.7%

N

A

10% Ration Reduction 0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 78.1% 95.9% 99.4%

R

I

15% Ration Regulated

Reduction 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 46.1% 86.0% 97.6%

O

S

20% Ration Enforced

Reduction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 59.3% 90.7%

Oil Supply scenario – probability analysis


Existing Travel Demand Patterns

•Population: 372,500 (2006), 414,000 (2026) 550,000 (2041).

•Average travel distance: 7.4 km.

•Modal split: 85% car; 4% PT; 11% other.

•Average number of trips per day: 5/person.

•Journey to work (JTW) travel: 79% car; 5% PT; 16% other.

•Travel distance: 8km car, 7km PT; 6 km bicycle.

•Outer suburbs both generated and received the highest percentage of trips in 2001;

•Circumferential travel rather than a more traditional radial pattern.


Initiatives to improve urban resilience

Urban Development Strategy (UDS)

Canterbury Regional Land Transport Strategy (RLTS)

•multi-organisational participatory planning effort;

•high-density development option.

•Vision: affordable, integrated, safe, responsive, and sustainable land transport system;

•“it is not possible to build our way out of congestion”.

•Coordination amongst agencies must be improved;

•Reliance on “soft” measures to change in travel behaviour in order to minimise future disruptions.


Implications

•Very unlikely that even minor fuel shortage events could be assimilated:

•New Zealand’s total dependence on oil imports;

•Metropolitan growth trends are almost irreversible, given the levels of investment in car-oriented infrastructure;

•Planning actions are quite timid in addressing the energy consumption issue;

•There is an unsubstantiated “belief” that alternative energy sources will replace petroleum.

•National government leadership is critical to set the pace of the local authorities’ actions.

Oil Addiction implicationsSydney

Oil Supply scenario – probability analysis

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

S Peak Production 0.0% 19.9% 49.2% 72.1% 86.06 93.3%

C

E

7% Voluntary Reduction 0.0% 3.1% 25.3% 53.31% 74.3% 86.9%

N

A

10% Ration Reduction 0.0% 0.8% 15.9% 43.2% 67.0% 82.6%

R

I

15% Ration Regulated

Reduction 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 26.0% 15.0% 72.5%

O

S

20% Ration Enforced

Reduction 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 12.7% 35.0% 58.4%


Existing Travel Demand Patterns•Population: 4,169,000 (2004), 5,300,000 (2031).

•15.8 million trips/day=>80 million Km vehicle travelled.

•Average travel distance/day: 20.5 km.

•Modal split: 69.5% car; 10.4% PT; 20.1% other.

•Average number of trips per day: 3.8/person.

•Average travel length/trip: 9.4 km.


Initiatives to improve urban resilience

Metropolitan Strategy

•Six distinct transit cities, each around 20 to 30 kilometres in diameter and each having a major Centre and a series of Local Centres. •To achieve a sustainable balance between social, environmental and economic objectives.

•Concentration of jobs in the CBD will remain an issue=>travel distances likely to increase;

•Average travel distance slowly (0.7%) increasing over the next decade.

•To increase the share of alternative modes to the car.

•Coordinated actions including planning, evaluation and funding.


Implications

•Extreme consequences of major fuel deficit could be avoided, but not eliminated:

•Australia’s energy availability will contribute to delaying impacts;

•Still exposed to global volatility of oil prices;

•Major rail links are too far into the future and by then travel patterns by car will already be well established;

•Urban “pockets” of oil vulnerability: combination of socio-economic conditions may generate serious impacts to deprived groups.

•Creation of a new ‘super’ transport agency may lead to a more co-ordinated government approach and a better transport outcome.

Discussion

•NZ and Australian metropolitan areas are likely to be impacted in an event of oil shortage:

(1) Lack of local, regional and national planning/policy initiatives that specifically consider oil addiction as a critical matter in achieving sustainability; and

(2) Limited knowledge on the potential consequences of a substantial fuel price increase and/or oil unavailability at the levels currently supplied to users.

Conclusions

•Neither city has comprehensive planning nor governance structures in place to plan and manage oil shortage/oil price volatility (100, 200, 300% increase).

•Christchurch is highly addicted to oil despite planning interventions;

•Sydney is slightly less addicted to oil, but problem-oriented approach does not address future oil shortages.

•A new approach to transport and urban planning and policy making is required to address oil addiction.

•Considerable resources are needed to develop a whole discipline on transitioning from an oil addiction reality to an energy constraint society.

ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL: OIL ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL: OIL ADDICTION IMPLICATIONS FOR ADDICTION IMPLICATIONS FOR

URBAN TRANSPORTURBAN TRANSPORT

Nick Buchanan, GHD Australia, Sydney, [email protected]

Andre Dantas, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New [email protected]

asleep at the wheel: oil addiction implications for urban transport

Engineering