asian regional panel 18 september 2007 tokyo intertanko issues
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Asian Regional Panel 18 September 2007 Tokyo INTERTANKO ISSUES. Peter M. Swift. INTERTANKO Today. Promote & protect the interests of our members Provide information and services Assist with advice - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Asian Regional Panel
18 September 2007
Tokyo
INTERTANKO ISSUES
Peter M. Swift
INTERTANKO Today
• Promote & protect the interests of our members
• Provide information and services
• Assist with advice
VISION: A responsible, sustainable, respected Tanker Industry, committed to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future.
Key issues for Tanker Owners / INTERTANKO
• Business environment
• Legislative developments & Global governance
• Environmental issues
• The “manning” challenges
Asian Regional Panel
Business Environment
Tanker fleet developmentm dwtm dwt
0
92
184
276
368
460
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 P07 P08 P090
1,040
2,080
3,120
4,160
5,200
dwt
number
NoNo
Assumptions for period until 2009:Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)
Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt)
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec-92
Jun-93D
ec-93Jun-94D
ec-94Jun-95D
ec-95Jun-96D
ec-96Jun-97D
ec-97Jun-98D
ec-98Jun-99D
ec-99Jun-00D
ec-00Jun-01D
ec-01Jun-02D
ec-02Jun-03D
ec-03Jun-04D
ec-04Jun-05D
ec-05Jun-06D
ec-06
95/105,000 dwt
150,000 dwt
280,000 dwt
40/45,000 dwt
Source: Fearnleys
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Handy
Chem/Spec)
Panamaxes
Aframaxes
Suezmaxes
VLCCs
1993 and earlier sizes except
VLCCs were defined differently
Demolition: slowed in recent years(mdwt)
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
3219
69
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Others/NK Bangladesh Pakistan India Taiwan Korea China
Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt)
Years
6
8
10
12
14
16
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Double-hull percentage rising steadily
%
622
5159
67 68 73 76 79 82 85
9478
4941
33 32 27 24 21 18 15
0
20
40
60
80
10019
91
1997
End
02
End
03
End
04
End
05
End
06
End
07
End
08
End
09
End
10
SH/DB/DS
DH
% dwt share* :
* Assumes phase out according to regulations (rounded upwards, 25 years after 2010.
Asian Regional Panel
Business Environment
Possible Business Discontinuities
(Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out- an “uncertainty” post 2010
m dwtm dwt
Assumptions :MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010.DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SHuntil 25 years)EU + no SH after 2010
OPA90
Conversions to Double Hulla further “uncertainty”
Built 10-30, 000 dwt
30-52, 000 dwt
60-72, 000 dwt
90-113, 000 dwt
(incl 6 obos)
120-148, 000dwt
VLCCs TOTAL
1970s 3 2 0 0 0 0 5
1980-1984
8 36 9 1 0 0 54
1986-1989
11 12 0 3 3 1 30
1990-1998
2 9 1 18 2 2 34
TOTAL 24 59 10 22 5 3 123
Panama Canal Expansion
Completion 2014New Dimensions for third lane:
49 metres (160 ft) Beam366 metres (1,200 ft) LOA15 metres (50 ft) DraughtUp to about 170,000 DWT (12,000 TEU)
Tankers5/2007: 5/2008: 5/2009:
Laden $3.29 $3.70 $3.98Ballast $2.61 $2,94 $3.18(based on 1st 10,000 PC/UMS net tonnage)
Asian Regional Panel
Legislative Developments & Global Governance
Global Governance - or confusion !
Global GovernanceThe ideal:
International legislation – implemented promptly and uniformly applied (and in US at least supremacy of federal law)
Consistency with International Law
Uniform standards in flags, class and port state control (even charterers !)
Global GovernanceUnilateralism (actual and potential):
Liability regimes (and limitation of liability)
Ship Source Pollution Directive
Tanker Phase-out
Security regimes
Environmental issues – ballast water, air emissions, recycling
INTERNATIONALCONVENTIONS
WHO GOVERNS SHIPPING ?
COMMUNITY INTERESTS- LOCAL LAWS / REGULATIONS
REGIONALREGULATIONS
INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING
INTERNATIONALCONVENTIONS
MARPOL Annex VI
Who governs Shipping ?- Environmental pressures
COMMUNITY INTERESTS
-LOCAL LAWS / REGULATIONS
California,West Coast/Canadian
Ports,Rotterdam, Antwerp,
Helsinborg,Other
REGIONALREGULATIONSEU / USA (EPA)
INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING
Federal / State Law pre-emptions
Historically:• State of Washington
Currently:• Massachusetts• Ballast Water discharges (EPA)• California Air Resources Board Air
Emission Standards
Asian Regional Panel
Environmental issues
Key environmental challenges:
• Ballast Water Management
• Pollution of the Oceans
• Responsible Recycling
• Anti-fouling paints
• Atmospheric Pollution (in port and at sea)
/ Air Emissions (global climate change)
Asian Regional Panel
The “manning” challenges
The “Manning” Challenges
• Current and future shortages
• Quality gap (training and experience)
• ILO 180 / MLC implementation
• Charterers’ requirements difficult to fulfil
RESPONSE to the many “Manning” Challenges
Includes:• Human Element in shipping Committee• Tanker Officer Training Standards (TOTS)• Cadet Berths – Survey & Policy• STCW revision / IMO Human Element Committee• Image of industry (knowledge & awareness)
Reported tanker incidents reducing – until 2005/6 (with Human error cases increasing)
Number
0
200
400
600
800
1000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
0
84
168
252
336
420
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
War
H & M
F & E
Grounding
Collis.
Misc
Tanker incidents 2006 by type
13%28%
9%
33%17%
Collision
Grounding
Fire/Explosion
Hull & machinery
Misc/unknown
Collision
Groundings
Hull & Machinery (27 engine, 3 hull related)
Misc.
F & E
Reported tanker incidents Jan-Dec
2006 - total 264
Asian Regional Panel
Other Issues
ILAMA / INTERTANKO / INTERCARGOJOINT FEEDBACK FORUM
LIFEBOAT USER GROUP
ILAMA, INTERTANKO and INTERCARGO have launched a joint feedback forum where end-users (crews) of lifeboats and other Life Saving Appliance (LSA) equipment can comment on how effective
such equipment is and how efficiently it functions.
The aim of the forum is to produce feedback and input to the manufacturers, which will help to improve design of life saving equipment and thereby enhance safety in the industry, taking a
crucial step towards achieving the goal of zero fatalities.
E-mails (which may be anonymous) will initially be channelled through INTERTANKO, noted and processed in the strictest
confidence, and then directed on to ILAMA for action.
PLEASE INFORM US OF YOUR CONCERNSemail : [email protected]
Poseidon Challenge- commitment to continuous improvement- commitment to working with all partners
Poseidon Challenge – Istanbul, April 2008
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it’s about expertise and commitment
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THANK YOU
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