ASIAN PERSPECTIVES ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

By the same author

CHINESE COMMUNIST POWER AND POLICY IN XINJIANG, 1949-77

ASIAN PERSPECTIVES ON INTERNATIONAL

SECURITY

Edited by Donald Hugh McMillen

M MACMILLAN

© Strategic and Defence Studies Centre 1984 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1984 978-0-333-36303-4

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form

or by any means, without permission

First published 1984 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD

London and Basingstoke Companies and representatives

throughout the world

Typeset by Wessex Typesetters Ltd

Frome, Somerset

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Asian perspectives on international security. 1. Security, International 2. Asia-Foreign relations I. McMillen, Donald Hugh 371.1'16 DS35 ISBN 978-1-349-07038-1 ISBN 978-1-349-07036-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-07036-7

For Dini, Damon, Santi and Ashley, our larger family in America and Indonesia, and the cabin amidst the aspen -may our world know peace

Contents

List of Tables

Foreword R. Gerard Ward

Preface

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

Notes on the Contributors

Map

Introduction: Asia in the Global Balance

1 A South Korean Perspective: Implications of the Eroding Superpower Balance in East Asia Sang-woo Rhee

2 Japan's Security and the International Environment in the 1980s Fuji Kamiya

3 ASEAN Perspectives on International

T. B. Millar

Security: an Indonesian View Jusuf Wanandi

4 Vietnamese Perspectives on International Security: Three Revolutionary Currents Carlyle A. Thayer

Vll

IX

xi

xiii

XVI

xviii

xxm

1

9

28

40

57

Vlll Contents

5 Arab and Israeli Perspectives on International Security Robert Springborg

6 Perspectives from the Gulf: Regime Security or Regional Security? Mohammed Ayoob

7 Afghanistan and International Security Zalmay Khalilzad

8 Pakistani Perspectives on International Security Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

9 An Indian Perspective on International Security K. Subrahmanyam

10 Chinese Perspectives on International Security Donald Hugh McMillen

11 The Soviet Union's Security Outlook Paul Dibb

12 Concluding Thoughts McMillen

Donald Hugh

Appendix: Military and Socioeconomic Profile of Selected Asian States

Index

77

92

117

135

151

168

195

215

221

223

List of Tables 1.1 The US-USSR military balance in Northeast Asia (to enj

1981) 19 2.1 Changes in Japan's defence-related expenditures (after

1965) 35 2.2 World's ten biggest defence spenders 36 6.1 Typology of politics in Gulf states 95

IX

Foreword Each year the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre organises a major international conference as one component of activities which embrace research, debate and publication on important strategic, defence and peace issues. Naturally, the tendency is for discussion in these conferences to give emphasis to Australian interests and views. But the Centre, like the rest of the Research School of Pacific Studies, has a research region which embraces much of Asia and the Pacific Islands. The organisers of the project which provided the thematic focus for the 1983 conference and this volume recognised that through this diverse region perceptions of security vary greatly and that as 'security is international and indivisible' an understanding of regional, national, and often local security cannot be divorced from global issues. The contributors are all authorities in their field, and the majority can speak as insiders. Many have had experience in govern­ment and policy areas as well as in academic circles and, although they do not write as representatives, they quite properly bring out the place and time of specific perceptions of security issues.

The volume's emphasis, therefore, has been placed on Asian perspectives on security at all levels of scale. As one author notes, 'any country's perception of reality will always be different from reality'. As each country views reality from a different location, a different level in a hierarchy of power, and a different set of ideological or cultural norms, it is not surprising that the authors in this volume present widely different national views of security issues at all levels. Some states see a need for the shelter of a superpower; others feel it desirable to keep away from the edge of all superpower umbrellas. States on either side of an ideological, military or economic frontier may each feel themselves under great threat from the other, neither perceiving the same reality. If 'the Western intelligence community does not have a particularly good record when it comes to the analysis of the USSR', one can have little faith in the Soviet intelligence community having a much better understanding. The same seems equally true in the other

XI

Xll Foreword

areas of tension dealt with in this volume- in the Arab-Israeli conflict; between North and South Korea; between Vietnam and China (or Thailand); and even between the adversaries in areas of internal insecurity. Lack of understanding of the perceptions of others, and unwillingness to accommodate to them, is a continuous underlying base of much of the insecurity in the Asian region. If the authors of the excellent essays in this volume can help even a few of their readers to recognise, and endeavour to consider, this dangerous gap, then this project and its products will have had an additional and much wider influence.

Politicians and national leaders naturally seek to minimise risks to themselves and their constituents. Inadequate information and poor understanding of the views of others greatly increase risks in the security area. This is well illustrated in cases described in this book. At the same time, the book should increase understanding of different viewpoints. It is a volume which deserves wide and thoughtful readership.

26 September 1983 R. GERARD WARD

Preface The claim to universality which inspires the moral code of one particular group is incompatible with the identical claim of another group; the world has room for only one, and the other must yield or be destroyed. Thus, carrying their idols before them, the nationalis­tic masses of our time meet in the international arena, each group convinced that it executes the mandate of history, that it does for humanity what it seems to do for itself, and that it fulfills a sacred mission ordained by Providence, however defined.

Hans Morganthau*

This volume of essays has been conceived on the belief that there is a continuing need to air, and thus, it is hoped, understand better, Asian perspectives of the world, and in particular of the crucial issues related to contemporary international security. It is further felt that the scholars treating these perspectives should not merely identify and describe them, but should also dissect and analyse these views so as to discover what factors have shaped them and will probably continue to do so in the future.lt is recognised that in some Asian states more than a single, dominant perspective may be extant, and that 'variable' outlooks also should be identified and assessed whenever possible. The discovery and analysis of linkages between perspectives and foreign and defence policy-making is also deemed to be of concern in our efforts here, as is the importance of the interplay of domestic and external affairs. The authors have sought to explore these complex issues at the global, regional and local (national) levels of security interaction, with commentary on how the 'superpower balance' is seen to impinge upon the Asian region as a whole and on each Asian state in particular and, conversely, on the degree to which the region and its individual states influence the 'superpower balance' and global politics

*Politics Among Nations. 4th ed. Alfred A. Knoff, New York, 1967, p. 249.

X Ill

xiv Preface

generally. Also, where possible, each Asian state's conception of its 'ideal' world or regional order is to be treated.

The planning and preparation for this volume has taken nearly two years. I was assisted in the initial stages of sharpening the focus and shaping its structure by Professor Mohammed Ayoob and Dr Robert O'Neill, and by my colleagues in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and the Department of International Relations, Research School of Pacific Studies, The Australian National University. Most of the authors were invited at that time to prepare initial drafts of their chapters for presentation at a conference at The Australian National University from 11 to 14 April1983. In the light of that conference, as well as previous and subsequent discussions, these essays took the form in which they now are presented. It has been a guiding principle throughout that the purpose of the conference was to assist in the shaping of the book rather than for the book to be merely a record of the conference proceedings. Moreover, it was not our intent that any of these essays should constitute an official statement by any govern­ment.

This project could not have gone ahead without the continuing support, both financial and otherwise, of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and the Research School of Pacific Studies, The Australian National University.- Several other institutions also pro­vided financial support for the conference, including Boral Limited, CRA Limited, Ansett Transport Industries Limited, the Japan Found­ation and the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Australian Development Assistance Bureau of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs, and the United States Information Service.

I must also warmly acknowledge gratitude to the following for their assistance with the organisation of the conference and the production of this volume: Dr T. B. Millar, Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, for his advice and constant encouragement; Mr J. 0. Langtry, Executive Officer of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, who bore the main burden of the conference administration; Mrs Billie Dalrymple, Mrs Patry a Kay, Ms Claire Nipperess, Mrs Dawn Langtry, Mrs Lynne Payne, and, especially, Mrs Elza Sullivan who provided essential secretarial and other administrative assistance; the Rt Hon. Ian Sinclair, Shadow Minister of Defence and Member of the Parliament of Australia, for his address at the conference dinner; Professor R. Gerard Ward, Director of the Research School of Pacifc Studies, for his many contributions to this project; the scholars and public officials who took time from their busy schedules to chair the

Preface XV

conference sessions and make useful comments on each paper; the SOCP AC Printery in the Research School of Pacific Studies for its usual fine job in reproducing the conference papers; Mr John Fitzgerald and Ms Antonia Finnane who proofread the manuscript; and Ms Anne-Lucie Norton of Macmillan Press, London, who helped us to achieve a smooth and rapid publication. I am particularly indebted to the authors of the essays for their efforts both in preparing presentations for the conference itself (and travelling so many miles to attend the gathering) and for their ready cooperation in revising their drafts in light of discussions there and in response to editorial suggestions. Any editorial errors or shortcomings remain my responsi­bility.

Most of all, I must pronounce my deepest appreciation and continuing loving affection to my family, especially my wife, Dini, and our three children, Damon, Santi and Ashley, without whose constant encouragement and sacrifice this volume could not have been pre­pared.

Canberra DONALD H. McMILLEN

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ASEAN ASW C3 CENTO CIA CMEA DEF DMZ EEC GATT GCC ICBM INF IRBM IRP LDC NAM NATO OAPEC OECD

OPEC PLO PRC RD(JT)F SEATO SLBM SLCM SLOC SRV

Association of Southeast Asian Nations Anti-submarine warfare Command, control and communications Central Treaty Organisation Central Intelligence Agency Council for Mutual Economic Aid (COMECON) Division equivalent forces De-militarised zone European Economic Community General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade Gulf Cooperation Council Intercontinental ballistic missile Intermediate range nuclear forces Intermediate range ballistic missiles Islamic Republican Party Late-developing country Non-Aligned Movement North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries Organisation for Economic Cooperation and

Development Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries Palestine Liberation Organisation People's Republic of China Rapid Deployment (Joint Task) Force Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation Submarine-launched ballistic missile Sea-launched cruise missile Sea lanes/lines of communication Socialist Republic of Vietnam

xvi

SSBM START UAE UN US( A) USSR VCP ZOPFAN

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

Surface-to-surface ballistic missile Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty United Arab Emirates United Nations United States (of America) Union of Soviet Socialist Republics Vietnamese Communist Party Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality

xvii

Notes on the Contributors Professor Mohammed Ayoob is Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, National University of Singapore. His previous positions include: Lecturer, Indian School of Internatio.nal Studies, New Delhi, 1967-9; Research Associate, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, 1969-70; Associate Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 1970-8; Senior Research Fellow, Department of International Rela­tions, Australian National University 1978-82. He has published widely on the politics and international relations of the Middle East and South Asia, including three edited books: Conflict and Interven­tion in the Third W arid (London, 1980); The Politics of Islamic Reassertion (London, 1981); and The Middle East in World Politics (London, 1981).

Dr Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema is Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Quaid-I-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakis­tan, and was a Visiting Fellow in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, in 1979. He has been Lecturer in History and Political Science, Government College, Lahore, 1962-6; Director/Course Co-ordinator, Foreign Office Training Courses, Pakistan Administrative Staff College, 1975-6; Chairman, Department of International Relations (1976-8) and Chairman, Department of Strategic Studies (1978-81), Quaid-I-Azam Univer­sity. He has authored three books and 'Conflict and Cooperation in the Indian Ocean: Pakistan's Interests and Choices', Canberra Papers on Strategy and Defence, No. 23 (Canberra, 1980).

Mr Paul Dibb is Senior Research Fellow, Department of International Relations, Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University. His previous positions include: Head, National Assess­ments Staff, National Intelligence Committee, 197 4-8; Deputy Direc­tor, Joint Intelligence Organisation, 1978-80; and Assistant Secre-

XVlll

Notes on the Contributors XIX

tary, Strategic Policy Branch, Department of Defence, 1981. He is editor of Australia's External Relations in the 1980s (Sydney, forth­coming), and is writing a book for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, about the limits to Soviet strategic power over the next decade.

Professor Fuji Kamiya received his LL.D. from Kyoto University. Besides being Professor of International Relations at Keio University, he has also been Visiting Professor at the East Asian Institute, Columbia University, and is a member of the board of directors of Japan's leading academic and advisory bodies in international law and relations. Of his many published books, the most recent is The Security of Korea: US and Japanese Perspectives on the 1980s (1980). His articles have appeared in leading Japanese and Western journals such as Survey and Asian Survey.

Dr Zalmay Khalilzad is Assistant Professor of Political Science and a Member of the Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, New York. Besides co-authoring a book on Iran (New York, 1983) and a monograph on the security of Southwest Asia (London, forthcoming), Dr Khalilzad's writing has appeared in Survi­val, International Security, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Political Science Quarterly, Survey, Orbis, Current History, Asian Survey, and Problems of Communism.

Dr Donald Hugh McMillen is Senior Research Fellow in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University (where he is on secondment from the School of Modern Asian Studies, Griffith University, Brisbane). He obtained his Ph.D. in modern Chinese history from the University of Colorado at Boulder, where his studies also included Soviet and Southeast Asian history and politics and American diplomatic history. He has taught at the University of Colorado (Boulder and Denver), and the Maryland University (Far East Division, Taibei, Taiwan). He has been a Visiting Scholar at the Universities Service Centre (Hong Kong), the Institute of Inter­national Studies (Beijing, China) and the Institute for International Relations (Taibei, Taiwan). Dr McMillen is the author of Chinese Communist Power and Policy in Xinjiang, 1949-77 (1979) and has written numerous articles and chapters on Chinese affairs in such journals as Asian Survey, Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs, World Review, Asian Studies Professional Review (US), Asian Pacific Com­munity (Japan),lnternational Journal (Canada), and China Quarterly.

XX Notes on the Contributors

Dr T. B. Millar has been a Professorial Fellow in International Relations, Australian National University, since 1968. He joined this Department in 1962, was the first Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, 1966-70, and was reappointed in 1982. He was also Director of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, 1969-7 6. His publications include: Australia's Defence (Melbourne, 1965); The Commonwealth and the United Nations (Sydney, 1967); Australia's Foreign Policy (Sydney, 1968); The Indian and Pacific Oceans: Some Strategic Considerations (London, 1969); Foreign Policy: Some Australian Reflections (Melbourne, 1972); Australian Foreign Minis­ter: The Diaries of R. G. Casey, 1951-60, (ed.) (London, 1972); Australia in Peace and War: External Relations 1788-1977 (Canberra, 1978); The East West Strategic Balance (London, 1981); International Security in the Southeast Asian and Southwest Pacific Region, (ed.) (Brisbane, 1983); and Current International Treaties, (ed.) (London, forthcoming).

Dr Sang-woo Rhee is Professor of Political Science and Chairman of the Department of Politics and Diplomacy at Sogang University, Seoul. He served as Assistant Director of the Dimensionality of Nations Project at the University of Hawaii, 1971-3. He has been Chairman of the Research Committee of the Korean Association of International Relations, 1978-9, Chairman of the Publication Com­mittee of the Korean Political Science Association, 1981-2, and Secretary-General of the Korean Association for Future Studies from 1975-8. Professor Rhee is at present Vice-President of the Korean Association for Communist Studies, and Editor of Korea and World Affairs. He has authored The Security Environment of Korea (2 vols, Seoul, 1977 and 1980), Contemporary Theories in International Relations (Seoul, 1978), and Korean Security and Unification (Seoul, 1983).

Dr Robert Springborg is Senior Lecturer in the School of History, Philosophy and Politics at Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia. He obtained his Ph.D. in Middle Eastern politics from Stanford University, and subsequently held teaching and research appointments at the University of Pennsylvania. He authored Family, Power and Politics in Egypt: Sayed Bey Marei -His Clan, Clients, and Cohorts (University of Pennsylvania Press, 1982) and many articles in Middle East Journal, World Review, Politics, Australian Outlook, Comparative Political Studies, and International Journal of Middle East Studies.

Notes on the Contributors xxi

Mr K. Subrahmanyam is Director of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. He has been Secretary (Defence Produc­tion), Ministry of Defence, Government of India; Chairman, Joint Intelligence Committee, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India; and Home Secretary, Tamil Nadu State. He was a Rockefeller Fellow in Strategic Studies in the Department of International Relations, London School of Economics ( 1966--7) and has been associated with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses from 1968-7 5 and again, since April 1980. He has been a member of the UN Secretary General's Expert Panel on the Indian Ocean (1974); a Member of the UN Intergovernmental Experts' Group on the Relationship between Disarmament and Development (1980--1); and Member of the Indian delegation to the Second UN Special Session on Disarmament and Seventh Non-Aligned Summit. His publications include: The Libera­tion War, with Dr Mohammed Ayoob (New Delhi, 1972); Bangladesh and India's Security (New Delhi, 1972); Perspectives in Defence Planning (New Delhi, 1972); Defence and Development (Calcutta, 1973); Self Reliance and National Resilience, ( ed.) (New Delhi, 1975); Nuclear Myths and Realities: India's Dilemma, (ed.) (New Delhi, 1982); and Indian Security Perspectives (New Delhi, 1982).

Dr Carlyle A. Thayer is Lecturer in Southeast Asian Politics in the Faculty of Military Studies, University of New South Wales, Royal Military College, Duntroon. Dr Thayer received his Ph.D. from The Australian National University. He visited Vietnam and Kampuchea in August-September 1981 as a guest of the Vietnam Social Science Committee's Institute of Economics. His recent publications include a chapter on Vietnam-Lao relations in Stuart-Fox, (ed.) Contemporary Laos (Brisbane, 1982) and articles on Vietnam's foreign policy, economy and leadership in Southeast Asian Affairs 1983, Current Affairs Bulletin (March 1983) and Current History (April 1983). In 1983, Dr Thayer will be a Visiting Fellow and consultant at the Political Science Department and the Southeast Asian Refugee Project, Yale University.

Mr Jusuf Wanandi graduated from the School of Law, University of Indonesia, and subsequently lectured at that university and at the Atma Jaya Catholic University. Currently he is Executive Director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta. Mr Wanandi is also Deputy Treasurer of the Central Board of Golkar, a

xxii Notes on the Contributors

member of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), and a member of the editorial boards of Asian Survey and Indonesian Quarterly. He edited, with Robert A. Scalapino, Economic, Political, and Security Issues in Southeast Asia in the 1980s (Berkeley, 1982).

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