asia polymers new global capacities to change the game · asia polymers –new global capacities to...
TRANSCRIPT
wwwiciscom 1
ASIA POLYMERS ndash New global capacities to change the game
26 April 2018
Felita Widjaja Leanne Tan Markets Editor (PE PP)
Muhamad Fadhil Head of Middle East Markets
wwwiciscom 2wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 3wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 4
Agenda
Overview on global capacity waves
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 5
Overview on global capacity waves
wwwiciscom 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MtyNorth America PE new plants 2016-2020
by company
CPChem Dow ExxonMoCh Gemini HDPE
Sasol Braskem-Idesa Equistar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MtyNorth America Ethylene major capacity developments 2016-2020 by company
BraskemIdesa CPChem Dow Chemical Equistar
ExxonMobil Indorama Ingleside Lotte-Axiall
Sasol Shell Shintech
Shale resources fueled unprecedented investments
Concentrated crackers and PE plants startups in 2017
Major producers at the forefront of North American expansion
Delay in cracker startups affect PE production
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 7
North Americarsquos PE capacity expansion
No FID yetAssuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobil start-up by 2022
Total 2017 expansions = 35m tonnesyear
Through 2019 = 65m tonnesyear (+42 US capacity)
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 8
Chinarsquos new PE capacities
PE expansion includes CTO and traditional naphtha to ethylene derivative plants
18m tonnes additional capacity expected in 2018
Chinarsquos PE deficit still outstrips the additional capacities planned
Many projects delayed to after 2020
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 2wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 3wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 4
Agenda
Overview on global capacity waves
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 5
Overview on global capacity waves
wwwiciscom 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MtyNorth America PE new plants 2016-2020
by company
CPChem Dow ExxonMoCh Gemini HDPE
Sasol Braskem-Idesa Equistar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MtyNorth America Ethylene major capacity developments 2016-2020 by company
BraskemIdesa CPChem Dow Chemical Equistar
ExxonMobil Indorama Ingleside Lotte-Axiall
Sasol Shell Shintech
Shale resources fueled unprecedented investments
Concentrated crackers and PE plants startups in 2017
Major producers at the forefront of North American expansion
Delay in cracker startups affect PE production
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 7
North Americarsquos PE capacity expansion
No FID yetAssuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobil start-up by 2022
Total 2017 expansions = 35m tonnesyear
Through 2019 = 65m tonnesyear (+42 US capacity)
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 8
Chinarsquos new PE capacities
PE expansion includes CTO and traditional naphtha to ethylene derivative plants
18m tonnes additional capacity expected in 2018
Chinarsquos PE deficit still outstrips the additional capacities planned
Many projects delayed to after 2020
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 3wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 4
Agenda
Overview on global capacity waves
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 5
Overview on global capacity waves
wwwiciscom 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MtyNorth America PE new plants 2016-2020
by company
CPChem Dow ExxonMoCh Gemini HDPE
Sasol Braskem-Idesa Equistar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MtyNorth America Ethylene major capacity developments 2016-2020 by company
BraskemIdesa CPChem Dow Chemical Equistar
ExxonMobil Indorama Ingleside Lotte-Axiall
Sasol Shell Shintech
Shale resources fueled unprecedented investments
Concentrated crackers and PE plants startups in 2017
Major producers at the forefront of North American expansion
Delay in cracker startups affect PE production
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 7
North Americarsquos PE capacity expansion
No FID yetAssuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobil start-up by 2022
Total 2017 expansions = 35m tonnesyear
Through 2019 = 65m tonnesyear (+42 US capacity)
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 8
Chinarsquos new PE capacities
PE expansion includes CTO and traditional naphtha to ethylene derivative plants
18m tonnes additional capacity expected in 2018
Chinarsquos PE deficit still outstrips the additional capacities planned
Many projects delayed to after 2020
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 4
Agenda
Overview on global capacity waves
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 5
Overview on global capacity waves
wwwiciscom 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MtyNorth America PE new plants 2016-2020
by company
CPChem Dow ExxonMoCh Gemini HDPE
Sasol Braskem-Idesa Equistar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MtyNorth America Ethylene major capacity developments 2016-2020 by company
BraskemIdesa CPChem Dow Chemical Equistar
ExxonMobil Indorama Ingleside Lotte-Axiall
Sasol Shell Shintech
Shale resources fueled unprecedented investments
Concentrated crackers and PE plants startups in 2017
Major producers at the forefront of North American expansion
Delay in cracker startups affect PE production
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 7
North Americarsquos PE capacity expansion
No FID yetAssuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobil start-up by 2022
Total 2017 expansions = 35m tonnesyear
Through 2019 = 65m tonnesyear (+42 US capacity)
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 8
Chinarsquos new PE capacities
PE expansion includes CTO and traditional naphtha to ethylene derivative plants
18m tonnes additional capacity expected in 2018
Chinarsquos PE deficit still outstrips the additional capacities planned
Many projects delayed to after 2020
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 5
Overview on global capacity waves
wwwiciscom 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MtyNorth America PE new plants 2016-2020
by company
CPChem Dow ExxonMoCh Gemini HDPE
Sasol Braskem-Idesa Equistar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MtyNorth America Ethylene major capacity developments 2016-2020 by company
BraskemIdesa CPChem Dow Chemical Equistar
ExxonMobil Indorama Ingleside Lotte-Axiall
Sasol Shell Shintech
Shale resources fueled unprecedented investments
Concentrated crackers and PE plants startups in 2017
Major producers at the forefront of North American expansion
Delay in cracker startups affect PE production
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 7
North Americarsquos PE capacity expansion
No FID yetAssuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobil start-up by 2022
Total 2017 expansions = 35m tonnesyear
Through 2019 = 65m tonnesyear (+42 US capacity)
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 8
Chinarsquos new PE capacities
PE expansion includes CTO and traditional naphtha to ethylene derivative plants
18m tonnes additional capacity expected in 2018
Chinarsquos PE deficit still outstrips the additional capacities planned
Many projects delayed to after 2020
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MtyNorth America PE new plants 2016-2020
by company
CPChem Dow ExxonMoCh Gemini HDPE
Sasol Braskem-Idesa Equistar
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MtyNorth America Ethylene major capacity developments 2016-2020 by company
BraskemIdesa CPChem Dow Chemical Equistar
ExxonMobil Indorama Ingleside Lotte-Axiall
Sasol Shell Shintech
Shale resources fueled unprecedented investments
Concentrated crackers and PE plants startups in 2017
Major producers at the forefront of North American expansion
Delay in cracker startups affect PE production
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 7
North Americarsquos PE capacity expansion
No FID yetAssuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobil start-up by 2022
Total 2017 expansions = 35m tonnesyear
Through 2019 = 65m tonnesyear (+42 US capacity)
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 8
Chinarsquos new PE capacities
PE expansion includes CTO and traditional naphtha to ethylene derivative plants
18m tonnes additional capacity expected in 2018
Chinarsquos PE deficit still outstrips the additional capacities planned
Many projects delayed to after 2020
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 7
North Americarsquos PE capacity expansion
No FID yetAssuming 1300kt PE for SABICExxonMobil start-up by 2022
Total 2017 expansions = 35m tonnesyear
Through 2019 = 65m tonnesyear (+42 US capacity)
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 8
Chinarsquos new PE capacities
PE expansion includes CTO and traditional naphtha to ethylene derivative plants
18m tonnes additional capacity expected in 2018
Chinarsquos PE deficit still outstrips the additional capacities planned
Many projects delayed to after 2020
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 8
Chinarsquos new PE capacities
PE expansion includes CTO and traditional naphtha to ethylene derivative plants
18m tonnes additional capacity expected in 2018
Chinarsquos PE deficit still outstrips the additional capacities planned
Many projects delayed to after 2020
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 9
Southeast Asiarsquos new PE capacities
Source ICIS
No new plant slated to start up in 2018
Around 14m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
Vietnam to have local PE production in 2022
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 10
Chinarsquos new PP capacities ndash 2018
5818
16
8
2017 Realised supply 189m tonnes2017 Planned supply 29m tonnes
CTO PDH MTO Non-integrated plantshellip
Source ICIS Around 29m tonnes were initially planned for 2017
Some projects have been delayed to beyond 2020
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 11
Source ICIS
Southeast Asiarsquos new PP capacities
Faster expansion as compared to PE with a few plants to start up this year
Petronasrsquo RAPID project to expand PP production in Malaysia substantially
Around 17m tonnes additional capacities by 2020
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 12
Current market dynamics and evolving trade flows
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 13wwwiciscom 13
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
China SE Asia Vietnam PP Flat Yarn Prices ($tonne)
Dutiable PP Flat Yarn CFR SE Asia PP Flat Yarn CFR China PP Flat Yarn CFR Vietnam
Asiarsquos PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
Wide gap between CFR China and CFR SE Asia prices slight outflow of Chinese exports
CFR China price bottoms out in Jul
Weak market sentiment in Q2 on bearish futures prices high inventory levels
Prices rebound on improved demand during harvest season
Persistent tight import supply in Q1 2018 continues to support prices
Prices peak in early Mar
$tonne
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 14Source China Customs
Chinarsquos PP imports decline amid new capacities
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 15
Current and future approximate PP capacities (tonnesyear)
Vietnam Existing 150000
The Philippines Existing 350000
Indonesia Existing 905000
Malaysia Existing 400000 Singapore
Existing 16m
Thailand Existing 23m
Future 980000
Future 15m
Future 10m
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Future 460000
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 16Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
05
POLYPROPYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
10
08
2509
08
21
03
02
02
02Middle
East 65
Europe34
Asia-Pacific18
northeast Asia03
SampC America04
North America
Former USSR02
Africa08
M tonnes
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 17
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
China SE Asia LLDPE amp HDPE film prices ($tonne)
HDPE Film CFR SE Asia HDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR Asia SE LLDPE Film CFR China
Asiarsquos PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
Wide gap between LL and HD prices
Prices not supported by feedstock buy interest curbed by competitive domestic prices and healthy supply
SE Asia HDPE film prices caught up to China
China prices shot up and maintained uptrend amid tight supply producers focused on HDPE pipe production
China prices soften subdued demand high local inventory
SEA prices fell sharply amid sales pressure weak China demand
$tonne
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 18
Chinarsquos PE imports fluctuated on sentiment
Source China Customs
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 19
Current and future SE Asia PE capacities (tonnesyear)
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 20Copyright copy 2016 ICIS
M tonnes
17
POLYETHYLENE ndash 2020 Worldwide Product Flow
07
39
12
27
65
03
Middle East 157
Europe40
Asia-Pacific21
northeast Asia97
SampC America24
Former USSR02
Africa30
North America58
2308
23
21
04
02
03
03
Source ICIS Supply and Demand Database
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 21
The future of the polymers industry in Asia
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 22
USrsquo LLDPE and HDPE exports have to find a home
Source ICIS
US LLDPE production expected to surpass local consumption growth substantially
Domestic demand growth for HDPE to consume only half the additional supply
Exports for both grades to increase significantly by 2025
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 23Copyright copy 2017 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential
China expected to import more specialty grade LLDPE
(2017)
In 2017 China imported 3m tonnes of LLDPE around 50 were specialty LLDPE grades
More incentive for substitution expected when more volumes of MLLDPE becomes available
In 2018 estimated import volume of MLLDPE to reach 15m tonnes amid increased domestic demand
Chinarsquos plan to implement 25 tariff on US LLDPEMLLDPE might affect import volume
Saudi
Singapore
Thailand
UAE
Total 3m tonnes
Substitution Trend - LLDPE vs C6 MLLDPE China
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 24
Chinarsquos import ban to boost virgin demand
Chinarsquos commitment to better environmental practices likely here to stay
Drastic cut in approved volumes (batch 8 out of 11) of waste PE and other plastic imports
Estimates around 2m tonnes additional demand for virgin PE
China might import more processed volumes as virgin material from 2018 onwards
(Unit tonne)
2017
(accumulative)
2018
(accumulative)
Wastes and scraps of
polyethylene 2368870 18233
Wastes and scraps of
other plastics excluding
crumbles of discarded
compact disks 1564490 8483
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 25
Chinarsquos road to PP self-sufficiency
70 67
80 97
China PE and PP Capacity and Consumption in 2016 VS 2020 (E)
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
On track to be self-sufficient in PP by 2020 depending on run rates
There are still requirements for specialty grades which is where international suppliers can help plug the gaps
Incentive for international suppliers to explore other developing markets outside of China
2016 2020
457m 19
1987m 81
Imports
Domestic production
Chinarsquos PP Domestic VS Import Consumption ndash 2016
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 26
Thailand
Who are the net PP importers and exporters in SE Asia
Thailand
Singapore
LegendNet PP importers Net PP exporters
China to SE Asia
Vietnam
Indonesia
The
Philippines
Middle East and India
SE Asia to China
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Malaysia
MyanmarLaos
Cambodia
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 27
Vietnam ndash A growing PP market
885
916
700
750
800
850
900
950
2015 2016
Vietnam PP Import Volumes (rsquo000 tonnes)Stable and healthy PP
consumption growth expected in the coming years
Less reliant on imports as domestic production expand
Vietnamese producers will be looking to export to other SE Asian countries
Despite expansions set to remain a net importer of PP in the near term
Vietnam will remain a major outlet for Chinese exports as Chinarsquos PP production capacity expands
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 28
SE Asiarsquos PE and PP prospects in 2018
SE Asia PE amp PP Consumption breakdown
28
2127
15
7
2
2017 consumption 119m tonnes
Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Singapore
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Indonesia 70 51
Vietnam 71 73
Thailand 32 50
Malaysia 33 44
The Philippines 62 57
Singapore 47
Demand Growth Projections (annual change)
Country 2017-2018 (estimate)
PE PP
Myanmar 106 80
Cambodia 42 143
Source ICIS Supply amp Demand Database
Indonesia
VietnamThailand
Malaysia
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 29
Changing market environment in the Middle East
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 30
Regular exports of PE from India in 2018 as capacity expansion has outpaced domestic demand growth
Volumes from Sadara not widely seen in Asia yet
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
OPaL Dahej India LLDPEHDPE 720 HDPE 340
H1 2017
Reliance India LLDPEMLLDPEHDPE 550 LDPE400
Q3 2017
HPCL-Mittal Energy India
12m tonnesyear mixed-feed crackerLLDPEHDPE 400 HDPE 450
2021
Company Location PE Capacity (ktyear) Start Up
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2017
PetroRabigh Saudi LDPEEVA 160 Q3 2017
Sadara Saudi HDPELLDPE 750 LDPE 350 2017
Orpic Oman PE 838 2021
India and Middle East new capacities
Source ICIS
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 31
GCC PE Market Review ndash LLDPE amp HDPE
As the Middle East is a price follower HDPE film prices saw support in Q1 2018 tracking China prices
From mid last year LLDPE supply from Qatar to the rest of the GCC was tight due to blockade
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PE GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
HDPE Film CFR China HDPE Film CFR GCC LLDPE Film CFR China LLDPE Film CFR GCC
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 32
GCC PP Market Review ndash Flat Yarn
GCC PP prices closely track China particularly during an uptrend
Premium of GCC prices over China not as straightforward as before
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
April May June July August September October November December January February March
PP GCC versus China (April 2017-March 2018)
PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR China PP Flat Yarn (Raffia) CFR GCC
$tonne
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 33
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Production (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
Middle East PE and PP production estimates
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 34
Middle East PE and PP consumption estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PP Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2018 2020 2022 2025
Mideast PE Consumption (rsquo000 tonnes)
IRAN SAUDI ARABIA REST OF MIDDLE EAST
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 35
Current Payment Methods
No direct payment
Through international bank accounts in Dubai Hong Kong and Shanghai
Process takes days to a week (delayscommon)
Currencies UAE dirham euro or yuan
High transaction costs
Post sanctions financing
Direct payment
Limited restrictions including banks in Europe
Real time
Most currencies (use of US dollar uncertain)
Limited transaction costs
12 May congressional deadline in which the US can re-impose sanctions
What investors want
Transparent financial frameworks
Assurance funds are moving through proper channels
Speed of process
Reduce FX volatility risk
Lower cost
Iran sanctions
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 36
Qatar blockade
Airspace closed
Borders closed
Ships with Qatari
flag banned from
docking at ports
causing shipment
delays
Suspension or
expulsion of Qatar
from GCC mooted
Unmet list of
demands may lead
to further sanctions
MEASURES IN PLACE IMPLICATIONS
BAU for now but
concerns weigh on
economic impact
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 37
Asiarsquos Polymers Market Q3 2018 Outlook
Supply
bull Growing US PE and China PP capacities to weigh on market
bull India to export PE more regularly
bull Healthier regional PE and PP supply expected after completion of turnarounds in Q2
bull Persistently high feedstock ethylene prices might reduce supply of PE
bull Sadara supply expected to be fully ramped up
Demand
bull Ban on plastic waste imports in China may increase demand for virgin resins
bull Relatively stagnant regional demand in SE Asia for finished goods expected after Eidul-Fitr
bull Chinarsquos additional tariffs on US PE imports might boost demand for other origins
bull Market uncertainty to curb import demand particularly for long shipment cargoes
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 38
ICIS PEPP team
Middle EastSouth Asia
Veena Pathare
veenapathareiciscom
Asia Pacific
Felita Widjaja (PE)
felitawidjajaiciscom
Leanne Tan (PP)
leannetaniciscom
Turkey Africa
Ben Lake
benlakeiciscom
Europe
Linda Naylor
lindanayloriciscom
US
Zachary Moore
zacharymooreiciscom
China
Angie Li (PE)
angieliiciscom
Dora Xue (PP)
doraxueiciscom
Muhamad Fadhil
Head of Middle East Markets
muhamadfadhiliciscom
John Richardson
Senior Consultant
johnrichardsoniciscom
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 39wwwiciscom 2
NEW Petrochemicals Analytics Solutions
The tools you need to stay ahead of the changing Asian polyolefins industry
Unrivalled pricing information
Support your daily trading activities with unbiased price assessments and commentary on price movements
and trends available in both English and Chinese
bull Import and export spot and contract prices (CFR FOB DEL China domestic prices)
bull Commentary on supplydemand trading activity and updownstream markets as well as changes in
government policies
bull Trades bids offers and contracts information
bull Plant and production news
bull Supply and demand trade flow insight
To complement our existing pricing intelligence you can now get a 360-degree view of the polyolefins markets with
powerful tools and insights to optimise your trades minimise risk and shape your trading decisions
Live Supply Disruption Tracker - Real-time view of global supply plant outages and start-ups for the next 12
months plus the impact of these changes on supply volume
Price Drivers Analytics - Key performance indicators such as importexport parity feedstock and downstream
spreads substitution trends and arbitragenetback data
Quarterly Supply and Demand Outlook - Available for key chemical commodities
China Supply-Demand Data and Analytics - Data on importexport volumes consumption plant capacities
and product trade flows up to 2040
Request a free
sample report gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt
wwwiciscom 40wwwiciscom 2
Supply and demand database
Other essential tools for navigating the polyolefins industry
Asia Polyolefins Price Forecast Reports
Determine the best time and price to buy and sell PP and plot price points against alternative scenarios
bull A rolling 12-month price forecast for China and southeast Asia (CFR assessments)
bull Upstream price forecast for 12 months ndash ethylene propylene naphtha and crude oil
bull Market review and analysis including trade flows and an economic outlook for polyolefins in the
coming 12 months
bull Scenario overview of Chinarsquos polyolefins imports and production against local consumption ndash base
case and alternative situation
Get an end-to-end perspective across the global polyolefins supply chain enabling you to grasp the
local or regional scenario in a global context The data includes import and export volumes consumption plant capacities production and product trade flows ndash from 1978 up to 2040
Enquire about the
reports gtgt
Request a demo gtgt