asia-pacific security-economics dynamics:...
TRANSCRIPT
Asia-Pacific Security-Economics Dynamics: Insights from Negotiation Analysis
by
Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit
Presentation for the ISA Hong Kong Conference, 15th-17th June
2017, Hong Kong University, Hong Kong
About This Project
A study of Asia-Pacific security-economic dynamics
on regional cooperation
How do economic priorities (e.g. reliance on trade
routes or transnational production networks, resource
exploitation) shape states’ security objectives, patterns
of behaviour, and cooperation outcomes?
Contributions to the existing literatures: Enhance the
understanding re: economics-security nexus in the
Asia-Pacific. A strategic approach.
About This Project
How does the security-economic nexus play out in
regional water resource management (WRM)
cooperation?
WRM is “a process which promotes the co-ordinated
development and management of water, land and related
resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic
and social welfare in an equitable manner without
compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems”
(Global Water Partnership Technical Advisory
Committee, 2000)
About This Project
Case = WMR cooperation in the Mekong subregion,
focusing on the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC)
Agreement
What shaped the details of WRM cooperation under
the LMC Framework?
Mekong Subregion
Lancang-Mekong Cooperation
Framework (LMC)
Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC)
Established in 2015
Members: China and five ASEAN states (Cambodia, Laos,
Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam)
Sanya Declaration (coined at the 1st LMC Leaders' Meeting, 23
March 2016):
• “3+5 Cooperation Framework” – 3 Pillars + 5 Priority Areas
• Pillars: (1) Political and Security, (2) Economic and Sustainable
Development, and (3) Social, Cultural and People-to-People.
• Priority Areas: 1) connectivity, 2) production capacity, 3) cross-
border economic cooperation, 4) water resources, 5) agriculture
and poverty reduction
Meetings Place Date Selected Negotiation Outcomes
1st LMC SOM
Meeting
Beijing, China
6 April 2015
Parties welcomed the ideas of founding the
Lancang-Mekong River Dialogue and
Cooperation as a mechanism to support
subregional cooperation among six countries.
2nd LMC SOM
Meeting
Chiang Rai,
Thailand
20-21 August
2015
Discussed the Concept Reached consensus re:
the concept Paper of the establishment of the
LMC, Discussed priority areas of cooperation.
Welcomed the “early harvest approach”
1st LMC Foreign
Ministers’ Meeting
Jinghong City,
Yunnan
province,
China
12 November
2015
Launched the LMC by endorseing the LMC
Concept Paper, agreed on the LMC coop
directions (3 prioritiy areas of cooperation –
Political/Security, Economic/Development, and
Social/Cultural)
3rd LMC SOM
Meeting
Sanya, Hainan
Province,
China
23-25 February
2016
Finalized on 3 output documents comprising of
1) Sanya Declaration of the 1st LMC Leaders’
Meeting 2) Joint Statement of the Production
Capacity Cooperation of the LMC Countries and
3) Joint List of the LMC Early Harvest Projects.
LMC Meetings
Meetings Place Date Selected Negotiation Outcomes
Press Release by
Chinese Ministry of
foreign Affairs
Beijing, China
17 March 2016
China would “develop hydroelectric resources of
Lancang-Mekong River in a scientific manner,
establish Lancang-Mekong water resource
cooperation center, share information and data
of the River, and jointly protect the ecological
resources along the River”.
1st LMC Leaders’
Meetings
(Sanya Declaration -
Theme: “Share
River, Share
Future”)
Sanya, Hainan
Province,
China
23 March 2016
Set the “3+5” Cooperation Framework; LMC
Organizing Structure. Issued the Joint
Statement on Production Capacity Cooperation.
Adopted a list of early harvest programmes
(inclu. WRM projects)
Agreed to enhance WRM cooperation such as
the establishment of a WRM center in China as
well as “technical exchanges, capacity building,
drought and flood management, data and
information sharing, conducting joint research
and analysis related to Lancang-Mekong river
resources”
LMC Meetings
Meetings Place Date Selected Negotiation Outcomes
2nd LMC Foreign
Ministers’ Meeting
Siem Reap,
Cambodia
23 December
2016
Endorsed the General Principles for the
Establishment of the Joint Working Groups on
the LMC Key Priority Areas and looked forward
to the early establishment and operation of the
JWGs; tasked the SOM and working groups to
explore the formulation of a Five-Year LMC
Action Plan.
1st Meeting of the
Joint WG of LMC on
Water Resource
Management
Beijing, China
26 February
2017
China emphasized the capacity-building,
drought management aspects of water resource
cooperation
Beijing China
10 March 2017
The LMC China Secretariat (to facilitate
cooperation) was set up. Formation of WGs on
priority areas are accelerated.
2nd LMC Leaders’
Meeting
Expected in
2018
LMC Meetings
LMC Decision-Making Structure
Leaders’ Meetings
Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (FM)
Working Group Meetings (WG)
Senior Officials’ Meetings (SOM)
Selected LMC Outcomes
1st LMC Leaders’ Meetings (23 Mar 2016): Agreed to
enhance WRM cooperation such as the establishment of a
WRM center in China as well as “technical exchanges,
capacity building, drought and flood management, data and
information sharing, conducting joint research and analysis
related to Lancang-Mekong river resources”
2nd LMC Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (23 Dec 2016): Set
up the Joint Working Groups on the LMC Key Priority Areas
1st Meeting of the Joint WG of LMC (26 Feb 2017):
Emphasized the capacity-building, drought management
aspects of water resource cooperation
WMR elements of the LMC Agreeement
What shaped the details of WRM
Cooperation under the LMC
Framework?
What shaped the details of WRM Cooperation under the LMC Framework?
Securitization
Securitization defined as a process in which “an
actor declares . . . a particular issue … to be an
“existential threat” to a particular referent object”
(McDonald, 2008: 69).
When states identify an issue as posing a threat to
national security, the issue becomes “securitized”.
Securitization of environmental resources is mainly
about access to and control over such resources
(Vogler 2002).
LMC Parties’ Securitization of Water Issues
Securitization of water
issues
Main Objectives in LMC
negotations
China
Strategic access to sea
(Mekong river as alternative to
the Malacca Strait), Trade,
security, Energy security
Navigation, Hydropower
development
Laos Trade security
(electricity exports) Hydropower development
Cambodia Food security & trade security
(Mekong delta)
Flood & Drought
management; info sharing
Vietnam Food security & trade security
(Tonle Sap)
Flood & Drought
management; info sharing
Thailand Food security (Northeast) Flood & Drought
management; info sharing
Myanmar N/A N/A
Tonle Sap Lake
Mekong Delta
aaa
Negotiation Process
1. Issue Linkage/Issue Trading
• Issue linkage: the simultaneous discussion of two
or more issues for joint settlement (Sebenius,
1983).
States exchanged concessions to get a package
deal
e.g. SALTs talks, WTO’s Doha Round, WU’s
fisheries policy
Negotiation Process
China’s concession: WRM Center in China to share
information about water storage & release
Downstream countries’ concession: China and Laos
can produce sustainable hydroelectricity
Cooperation on navigation – a bargaining chip?
The Agreement on Commercial Navigation
on Lancang-Mekong River (2000)
• Members = China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand
(no Cambodia, no Vietnam)
Negotiation Process
2. Venue Selection
Venues can affect negotiation dynamics and
outcomes (Baumgartner and Jones, 1993).
Venue shopping = “Finding a decision setting that
offers the best prospects for reaching one’s policy
goals’”(Pralle, 2003, p. 233).
E.g. EU’s public health and labour market policies,
the first COC consultation between ASEAN and China
in September 2013
Negotiation Process
Roles of Thailand – How to get China more
involved in regional WRM cooperation?
Thailand’s strategy – A new, broad-based
cooperation framework with WRM elements inside
Thailand proposed LMC as alternative to other
WRM frameworks
• Mekong River Commission (1995) has 4 members
(Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam). Myanmar, China
are “Dialogue Partners” = Observers
Negotiation Process
17th China-ASEAN Summit (13 Nov 2014) :
Chinese Premier Li said “in order to promote the
development of ASEAN sub-region, China is willing to
respond positively to Thailand’s initiative, and explore
the feasibility of setting up the LMC”
1st LMC Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (12 Nov
2015): Approved the LMC Concept Paper. LMC was
launched
What to do next?
Ongoing project, ongoing negotiations. 1st Joint WG
meeting on WRM in February 2017.
My findings are preliminary
What to do next?
1. Do more interviews, esp. Chinese and
Myanmar officials and/or experts
2. Analyze the WRM cooperation details of the
future Joint WG meetings
Thank you very much.
References Baumgartner, F. and Jones, B. (1993) Agendas and Instability in American Politics. Chicago:
University of Chicago Press.
McDonald M (2008b) Securitization and the construction of security. European Journal of
International Relations,14(4): 563–587.
Pralle, S. (2003) ‘Venue shopping, political strategy, and policy change: the
internationalization of Canadian forestry advocacy’, Journal of Public Policy, 23(3), 233–260.
Volger, J. (2002). The European union and the ‘securitisation’ of the environment . In E.
Page, &M. Redclift (Eds.), Human security and the environment: International comparisons
(pp. 179–1980). Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Hensengerth, O. (2009). “Transboundary river cooperation and the regional public good:
The case of the Mekong River.” Contemporary Southeast Asia, 31(2), 326-349
Sebenius, J.K. (1983) ‘”Negotiation arithmetic: adding and subtracting issues and parties.”
International Organization, 37(2), 281–316.
Global Water Partnership Technical Advisory Committee (2000). “Integrated Water
Resources
Management.”Background Paper No. 4 (Stockholm, GWP).
Frameowkrs of WRM Cooperation in the Mekong Subregion
Mekong River Commission (1995)
ASEAN Mekong Basin Development Cooperation
(1996)
Lower Mekong Initiative (2009)
Mekong-Japan Cooperation (2009)
Mekong-ROK Cooperation (2011)
Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (2015)
