asia pacific retirement: models for australia, fiji, malaysia, philippines and republic of korea
TRANSCRIPT
JOHN McCALLUM
ASIA PACIFIC RETIREMENT: MODELS FOR AUSTRALIA,
FIJI, MALAYSIA, PHILIPPINES AND REPUBLIC OF KOREA
ABSTRACT. Survey data from Australia, Fiji, Malaysia, Philippines, and the Republic of Korea are used to model older workers' choices. The co-existence of a traditional sector along with a modem sector in much of the Asia Pacific region offers a traditional family lifestyle, as well as paid work and retirement choices. Differences are analyzed between countries, by expanding choices to include traditional family support, and within countries by use of ethnic ~oup dummies along with economic factors. Results demonstrate the importance of cultural and developmental factors within and between countries. There is less dependency on family in more developed countries but inverse effects for wealthy persons. Wealthier households in more developed countries depend upon income from their own work while in developing countries they depend on families. Women in the developing countries work whilst those in developed countries tend to retire with their husbands to share retirement leisure.
Key Words: aging in Asia Pacific, comparative gerontology, older workers, productive aging, retirement.
INTRODUCTION
The Asia Pacific region is characterized by rapid industrialization and rapid demographic transitions. Excluding the Philippines, all the major Asia Pacific economies experienced average annual rates of per capita GNP growth of 4 percent or greater during the period 1965 to 1988. The speed of fertility declines in the region is equally dramatic, taking about one quarter of the time that they have taken in Western industrialized nations. By 2025 in some countries in the region, the proportion of population aged 60 years and over will be more than 20 percent, namely in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and possibly China, and in several it will still be in the range 10 to 15 percent, namely in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), Philippines and Thailand (McCallum 1990a).
Amongst the countries examined in detail in this paper, Fiji and Korea expect very rapid aging, similar to Japan but lagged by about twenty years, quickly to reach similar proportions to Australia, around 20 percent aged 60 years and over by the year 2025 (Table I). In contrast Malaysia and the Philippines will remain relatively young populations into the next century. However aging amongst ethnic Chinese population in Malaysia is more rapid than in the general population. By the year 2000, 8.4 per cent of ethnic Chinese are expected to be aged 60 years and over compared to 7.1 percent of Indians and 6.4 percent of Malays (McCallum 1989). Singapore is expected to take 21 years to move from having 10 to 20 percent of its population aged 60 years and over, compared with 25 years in Japan, 45 years in Australia, 68 in Sweden and 86 years in Britain (Chen and Jones 1989).
Journal of Cross-Cultural Gerontology 7: 25-43, 1992. © 1992 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.
26 JOHN McCALLUM
TABLE I Numbers (in '000') and proportions of the populations aged 60 years and over: selected Asia Pacific countries
Expected
1985 2000 2025
Australia n 3104 3974 7289 % 12.82% 13.55% 20.22%
Fiji n 39 65 165 % 5.56% 15.52% 23.37%
Malaysia n 898 1512 4049 % 5.73% 6.7% 13.58%
Philippines n 2846 4474 12220 % 5.17% 5.79% 10.79%
Republic of Korea n 2737 4924 11430 % 6.67% 9.96% 19.92%
Japan n 17630 27226 34961 % 14.60% 20.88% 26.49%
China n 107959 164961 332599 % 8.79% 11.42% 19.85%
Source: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, Demographic Indicators, 1986.
TABLE II Economic activity rates (%) for men in 1984: selected Asia Pacific countries
Country 55-59 yrs 60--64 yrs 65--69 yrs
Australia 76.4 43.8 12.1 Fiji - 89.2 ~ - 40.72 Malaysia 77.6 69.0 49.4 Philippines - 88.4 ~ - 60.12 Republic of Korea 84.0 64.8 35.1
B
Japan 90.5 73.8 55.7
Notes: 1 rate for ages 55 to 64 years; 2 rate for ages 65 and over. Source: International Labor Office, Yearbook of Labor Statistics, lntemational Labor Office, 1985.
1985. Geneva:
The speed of aging provides the opportunity for choice of some of the longer term developments in slower aging, developed countries. One issue of interest here is the development of pension systems that lead to exclusion of older workers from productive roles. Public pensions began in 1908 in Australia, but in 1951 in Malaysia, 1954 in the Philippines as well as an earlier public workers scheme in GSIS from 1937, and in 1966 in Fiji. The Republic of Korea first enacted social security legislation in 1986 and the system began in 1989.
RETIREMENT IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION 27
Rapidly developing countries may choose to maintain participation of older workers by judicious management of pension developments.
In slower aging Australia with a long standing public pension system, older workers are least likely to be in paid productive roles, lower than Malaysia and the Republic of Korea. The economic activity rates are highest in Japan and the Philippines (Table II). Whilst both have social security pensions, they are at the extremes of levels of economic development and urbanization. Countries in the region also have different retirement ages that derive from different demography and different colonial or cultural legacies. In Australia public age pensions are paid at age 60 for women and 65 for men but retirement occurs nearer to age 60 for most men. In Fiji, by contrast, the Fiji National Provident Fund (FNPF) has pensions available from age 55 as does the Malaysian Provident Fund but both cover only part of the workforce excluding nearly all rural workers. The colonial legacies of Malaysia and Fiji may be part of the reason for their relatively low economic activity rates.
It is argued here that the speed of population aging makes the consideration of the role of older workers in development a matter of urgent policy interest. Explanatory models of retirement behaviour for these countries are yet to be formulated. They will need to be sensitive to ethnic and developmental dif- ferences both between and within these countries. These are ambitious goals to which this paper makes an initial contribution.
A MODEL OF RETIREMENT
In economic theory, retirement is modelled as a reasoned choice between work and leisure. Older workers trade off more consumption for more leisure time according to individual preferences depending upon the wealth accumulated throughout the lifecycle. When a person decides he or she has enough wealth, he or she can stop work and live on accumulated assets. The existence of pensions, particularly when they are non-contributory, acts as an incentive to retire earlier because it lowers the costs of leisure relative to work.
Newer models of retirement (Aaron and Burtless 1984:21-22) examine multiple retirement processes. For example, one can retire because one wants to, or be made redundant through redundancy or ill-health or be forced to retire through compulsory retirement rules. Diamond and Hausman (1984) have extended the economic model to cover "involuntary" hazards such as ill-health or redundancy which lead to retirement. From a more macro standpoint, Gunderson and Pesando (1980) and Lazear (1979) have argued the apparently contradictory case that compulsory retirement rules are generated by competi- tive market forces but this is contradicted by other authors (Hashimoto 1981). Underlying most models are implicit assumptions such as the existence of widespread industrial employment and adequate pension levels. There is a need, in the developing countries considered here, to develop more appropriate assumptions about cultural and developmental factors that affect life cycle behaviors.
28 JOHN McCALLUM
Within retirement models such factors often are revealed only indirectly in individual work/leisure preferences, imputed to personal characteristics like gender, migrant status and so on, rather than directly measured. There has been some discussion of gender differences in retirement in the context of develop- ment. Pampel and Park (1986) argue that economic development, age structure and public pensions determine men's retirement while family structure, sex stratification, and income inequality determine female labour force participation. The strategy of including economic development as a factor is also adopted here by allowing choice of traditional family lifestyle, as well as work or retirement.
As well as diversity between countries there is cultural diversity within them. There is only limited discussion of ethnicity as a factor in employment in old age within particular labour markets. McCallum and Shadbolt (1989) argue the case that ethnic groups be defined by the extent of their difference from the mainstream. All groups identified here are defined in this way, for example, the culturally mixed, non-English speaking migrants to English-speaking Australia, or the politically polarized Indo-Fijians or Malaysian Chinese. Migrants on average have a stronger preference for work than non-migrants because they are establishing themselves in a new country (Woodland 1987). Pacific Chinese and Indian ethnic "minority" groups also tend to have a stronger preference to work because of political insecurity and exclusion from public sector jobs because of their ethnicity. Indo-Fijians, for example, are largely excluded from land ownership and account for 53 percent of paid employees and 49 percent of the population compared to the 39 percent of indigenous Fijians in paid employment who account for 46 percent of the population (Cole and Hughes 1987: 23). Ethnic Indians have double the number of workers in the private sector com- pared to ethnic Fijians while ethnic Fijians dominate the "unpaid family workers" and the public sector categories.
It is argued that the most significant consideration in the developing countries of the Western Pacific is the part played by family support in old age. An analysis of disability and morbidity patterns in the same WHO data set analyzed here (Manton, Myers and Andrews 1987:128) found associations similar to the United States with one major difference: What appears to differ most from the U.S. is the high frequency of elderly living both with children and spouse, which indicates more extended families and greater informal care resources. Andrews (1987) further reports around 80 percent of the elderly in these WHO samples were living with children, of whom 60 percent live with four or more - double the rates in comparable European surveys. He concludes:
One of the most striking in this study is the degree to which elderly subjects are a completely integral part of family structure. Children and to a lesser extent older members of the family, are clearly a substantial source of support for the aged in the population (Andrews 1987:31).
For Fijians the Melanesian family system provides the basis for support in old age and for workers not in the modern sector, the basis for work. The Chinese
RETIREMENT IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION 29
Malaysian family support system in old age relates strongly to linguistic clan associations or kongsis (Purcell 1980:272) and is maintained by rituals and beliefs of ancestor worship. There is a strong belief in bad luck or ill-health as expected consequences of mistreatment of elders or failure to fulfil rituals. As Yeap Joo Kim (1976:139) expresses this:
Because I strongly believe in ancestral worship and I enforce it. I hope the same ardent filial piety I have shown my parents will be accorded to me some day.
Family systems are expected to be strong for Chinese in Malaysia and for rural dwellers in both Fiji and Malaysia compared to city dwellers. Family life, within village or community systems is an alternative to survival through work, or through the beneficence of the State or a company on a pension. Family development is a rational investment for support in old age (Bulatao 1979; Nugent and Gillaspy 1982), particularly in the absence of State welfare and company pensions. In more developed countries, less dependence upon family support systems and more dependence upon the State or work organization for income in old age is the norm.
In summary a modified work-leisure choice model will include these factors affecting older workers, shown in Figure 1:
(1) The availability of family for financial and social support and acceptance within a traditional tribe or group which will allow the choice between industrial work, retirement for leisure or return to a traditional subsistence way of life with the support of family.
(2) More conventional economic incentives to retire (wealth, pensions) and disincentives (rural sector employment, having a skill which allows continued employment and migrant or ethnic status).
(3) Hazards such as ill-health, low skills and old age which force older workers out of employment and into retirement.
Relevant variables Choices
Sex Age Rural/urban residence Health status Family status
Spouse employment Children
Skilled/unskilled labor Economic resources Ethnicity
Paid work Retirement Traditional family lifestyle
Fig. 1. Retirement choice model for cross-cultural analysis.
30 JOHN McCALLUM
DATA AND METHODS
Data used in these analyses are derived from a World Health Organization study of the aged in four Western Pacific countries: Malaysia, Fiji, the Philippines and the Republic of Korea in 1984. The Australian analyses use data collected in two, cross-sectional surveys of Australians living in private dwellings aged 60 years and o v e r - the Aging and the Family Project Survey, 1981 of 1050 persons (Rowland, Kendig and Jones 1984), and the Ethnic Aged Survey, 1984 of 1110 persons living in Australia but born in Germany, Poland, Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy or China (Pensabene and Kabala 1986). Both surveys used identical questions and measures which for the Ethnic Aged Survey questionnaire were translated into the languages of the target groups for interviews in these languages.
In each of the other countries: Fiji, Malaysia, Philippines and Republic of Korea, multistage sampling methods were used to obtain a probability sample of non-institutionalised persons aged 60 years and over which was reasonably representative of the elderly population of the country as a whole. In the case of the Philippines the study population was restricted for logistic reasons to the Tagalog Speaking Region of the country while the Malaysian Study was confined to Peninsular Malaysia. The smallest sample was 796 (Fiji) and the largest 1000 (Malaysia). In the Philippines 927 subjects were interviewed and in the Republic of Korea a sample of 947 was interviewed. Response rates were in general quite high, being over 90% in all instances with the exception of the urban Philippines sample (Metro Manila) which had a non-response rate of 16.5%. More detailed description of the methodology of the study and sample has been published elsewhere (Andrews, Esterman, Braunack-Mayer, and Rungie 1986).
The WHO survey was a first effort in the field for those parts of the region. More recently Chen Ai Ju and Jones (1989) conducted a further survey of the elderly in ASEAN countries namely: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Sin- gapore and Thailand. There are problems of cross-cultural survey methodology in both studies (McCallum 1990b) and broader questions, for example, whether surveys are an appropriate means to study retirement in these countries. This study certainly would benefit from careful participant observation, in addition to the survey evidence, to understand the suitability of questions asked in the different countries. The models produced here are, consequently, preliminary and need to be treated with some caution.
V a r i a b l e s
There are some slight differences in the measurement techniques used for variables from the Australian surveys compared to the WHO Surveys in Fiji, Malaysia, Philippines and Republic of Korea as noted below: W o r k s t a t u s - the bivariate dependent variable measures whether or not someone works for pay, with 1 for working and 0 for not working.
RETIREMENT IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION 31
M a i n s o u r c e s o f i n c o m e - the trivariate dependent variable: W o r k i n c o m e - coded 1 if work is main source of support and 0 if not; P e n s i o n - coded 1 if a respondents main source of income is a pension (or superannuation) and 0 if not; F a m i l y - coded 1 if a respondents main source of income is family and 0 if not; S e x - coded 1 female, 0 male; A g e - measured in groups of 5 years 60 and over, 6 groups in total; R u r a l - coded 1 for rural and 0 for urban dweller; H e a l t h - measured by activities for Daily Living (ADL) scores, a standard measure of functional health, which were globally assessed by the inter- viewer in the WHO surveys but self assessed in the Australian Surveys in both cases on a six point scale; S p o u s e w o r k s - coded 1 if the spouse of respondent works and 0 if not; U n s k i l l e d - coded 1 if unskilled labourer most of respondent's life and 0 if not; E c o n o m i c r e s o u r c e s - measured by global assessment by the interviewer for the WHO surveys [assessing factors like standard of housing, water supply and income] and self assessed adequacy in the Australian survey - both on six point scales; E t h n i c i t y - was coded as three separate dummy variables and relevant only in Australia, Fiji and Malaysia, namely:
1 for non-English speaking, birthplace migrants to Australia otherwise 0; 1 for Indian, self reported, otherwise as 0, appropriate to Fiji and Malaysia; and 1 for Chinese, self reported, otherwise as 0, appropriate to Malaysia.
The global assessments of health and economic resources performed by trained interviewers were preferred to avoid the comparative measurement difficulties on specific measures. The complexity of income in village communities, for example, is well-known. In such situations the part or complete absence of cash incomes (replaced by in kind transfers) precludes the use purchasing power parity conversions on money amounts. The consequence of this choice is, however, a loss of specificity in the models. For example, it cannot be estimated what difference an extra Philippino pecos or Australian dollar will make to the probability of working or not. In this case such detail is over-ambitious. Nonetheless detailed models using these general factors can be usefully developed in two different forms, namely:
(1) the work model - predicting whether an older person will work or not; (2) the development models - predicting the probability of being in one of
these destinations in old age, namely working, living on a pension or living traditionally with family as one's main source of support. Such models are exploratory, being intended to provide benchmarks for more detailed studies in specific countries.
t,~
TA
BL
E I
Il
Sam
ple
char
acte
rist
ics f
or A
sia
Paci
fic
coun
trie
s
Aus
tral
ia
Mal
aysi
a Ph
ilip
pine
s K
orea
F
iji
N=1
840
% (
N=9
32)
% (
N=4
88)
% (
N=5
92)
% (
N=5
62)
Gen
der
Mal
e 47
.8
40.7
51
.4
40.0
55
.7
Fem
ale
52.2
59
.3
48.6
60
.0
44.3
Pl
ace
live
d U
rban
10
0.0
35.1
49
,8
55.6
37
.5
Rur
al
64.9
50
,2
44.4
62
.5
Spou
se w
orks
Y
es
39.7
20
.6
34.2
26
.0
67.6
N
o 60
.3
79.4
65
,8
74.0
32
.4
"~
Skil
l lev
el
Skil
led
76.3
35
.0
57.2
88
.5
74.0
U
nski
lled
23
.8
65.0
42
.8
11.5
26
.0
> Pe
nsio
n/Su
pera
nnua
tion
N
o 12
.8
89.1
88
.1
95.3
91
.1
Yes
87
.2
11.9
11
.9
4.7
8.9
Fam
ily
supp
ort
No
98.5
35
.6
47.5
32
.8
60.0
Y
es
1.5
64.4
52
,5
67.2
40
.0
Eth
nici
ty 1
: N
on-I
ndia
n 91
.7
66.9
In
dian
8.
3 33
.1
Eth
nici
ty 2
: N
on-C
hine
se
63.7
C
hine
se
- 36
.3
Eth
nici
ty 3
: N
on-E
ngli
sh
Spea
king
Mig
rant
-
Oth
er
58.4
41
.6
TA
BL
E I
ll (
Con
tinu
ed)
Mea
n S.
D.
Mea
n S.
D.
Mea
n S.
D.
Mea
n S.
D.
Mea
n S.
D.
Age
(ye
ars)
70
7
70
8 68
6
71
7 69
7
Hea
lth (A
DL
sca
le)
1.2
0.5
2.2
0.84
2.
5 0.
87
2.4
1.0
2.4
1.1
Eco
nom
ic r
esou
rces
2.
3 0.
83
2.3
0.82
3.
0 0.
86
3.0
1.1
3.1
1.5
rn
Z ,.q
rrl
Paid
wor
k*
Yes
9.
2 20
.4
25.8
23
.0
7.3
No
90.8
79
.6
74.2
77
.0
92.7
M
ain
reso
urce
of
supp
ort*
W
orki
ng
11.3
19
.2
27.1
21
.1
10.2
P
ensi
on
87.2
11
.7
! 3.4
5.
1 9.
2 F
amil
y 1.
5 69
.1
59.5
73
.8
80.6
* N
ote:
The
se a
re d
eriv
ed f
rom
two
sepa
rate
que
stio
ns:
the
firs
t as
king
if o
ne w
orks
for
pay
; an
d th
e se
cond
whe
ther
one
's m
ain
inco
me
sour
ce i
s
)>
"1'1
Wor
k, P
ensi
on o
r Fa
mily
.
34 JOHN McCALLUM
Data Description
Samples sizes (after list-wise deletion of missing values) were in excess of 500, excluding Philippines (488), with the Australian sample the largest, 1840. With the exception of Malaysia and Korea which were about 60 percent female, all countries had about equal proportions of men and women (Table III). The Australian sample was entirely urban, truly reflecting its exceptional urbaniza- tion (86 percent live in cities of 1000 or more), whilst Malaysia and Fiji were nearly two thirds rural, and Philippines and Korea had about an equal rural/urban split. About two thirds of Fijians had spouses who worked, whereas all other countries were in the range of twenty to forty percent, with Malaysia and Korea being lower than Philippines and Australia. The highest proportion of unskilled was in the Malaysian sample (65 percent) whereas the lowest propor- tion was in Korea (12 percent). There was on this variable, as well as on the other variables, a wide range in the observed proportions (Table III).
By contrast the mean ages are all around 70 years with samples selected from those aged 60 years and over. The mean number of functional health limitations, Activities of Daily Living (ADL) are relatively low for Australia (1.2), and higher in a narrow range between 2.2 (Malaysia) and 2.5 (Philippines) for the WHO surveys. The mean economic resource ratings are low in Australia and Malaysia (2.3) but all around 3 for the other countries (Table III). In ethnicity the Malaysian sample was 8 percent Indian, and 36 percent Chinese, while the Fijian sample was 33 percent Indian. In the Australian surveys, 58 percent had origins in non-English speaking birthplaces. The differences between countries are clear in the support resources (Table III). Australians over age 60 years are most likely to have the pension as their major form of support and less than a fifth are working with virtually no one dependent upon family. In Australia the State has taken over the role of extended family except for a small minority of late life migrants who do not qualify for age pensions because of a ten year residency rule. If we take village/community support to be a form of family support, Fiji has the largest dependency on family, but all other countries have about half men and 80 percent of women dependent on family. Korea is opposite to Australia with less than 5 percent having age pensions as a main source of income, reflecting the absence of public pensions in that country.
RESULTS
The first bivariate logit analysis has as the dependent variable whether the respondent works for pay or not (Table IV). The variables age, sex and level of economic resources are significant predictors in all countries with Fiji having the least number of variables with statistically significant coefficients in the model. In the models excluding an ethnic factor, in countries other than Fiji, all variables are significant excepting the Spouse Works variable for the WHO surveys and the Unskilled variable for Australia. In all countries women, older people, those with worse health and those with more economic resources are
TA
BL
E IV
A
: biv
aria
te l
ogit
mod
els
for
wor
king
ver
sus
not w
orki
ng
Aus
tral
ia
Fiji
Mal
aysi
a Ph
ilipp
ines
R
epub
lic o
f Kor
ea
Con
stan
t 1.
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(0.8
254)
0
.63
81
(1
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) -0
.832
2 (0
.643
7)
1.4
66
(0
.778
2)
-1.4
18
(0.8
213)
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x -2
.214
(0
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-1.1
78
(0.5
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(0
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-0.5
325
(0.2
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(0
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(0
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-0.4
431
(0.1
694)
* -0
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(0
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3)
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29
(0.2
208)
* 0.
0828
(0
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6)
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4 (0
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6)*
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lth (
AD
L)
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232
(0.4
561)
* 0.
2133
(0
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9)
-0.4
250
(0.1
281)
* -0
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8 (0
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4)*
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87
(0.1
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* Sp
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wor
ks
0.56
92
(0.2
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* 0.
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(0
.496
9)
0.10
51
(0.2
385)
-0
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0 (0
.257
0)
0.50
67
(0.2
969)
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nski
lled
-0.2
520
(0.2
136)
0.
2669
(0
.375
9)
1.47
3 (0
.253
2)*
1.0
76
(0
.253
8)*
1.00
4 (0
.323
3)*
Eco
nom
ic re
sour
ces
0.97
19
(0.1
173)
* -0
.812
2 (0
.199
1)*
-0.3
039
(0.1
282)
* -0
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5 (0
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0.49
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ge
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al
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lth (
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se w
orks
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kille
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cono
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ourc
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thni
c va
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ed d
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es:
(1)
* si
gnif
ican
t at
a le
vel p
< 0
.05;
(2)
Ana
lysi
s us
e G
LIM
(Bak
er a
nd N
elde
r 19
78).
36 JOHN McCALLUM
TABLE IV B: bivariate models for working - proportional effects at grand mean
Republic Australia Fiji Malaysia Philippines of Korea
Sample proportion 9.2 7.3 20.4 25.8 23.00
Constant 25.93 5.67 -10.37 34.30 -16.25 Sex --8.11" -4.93* -13.45" -8.85* -13.60" Age -7.26* -2.49* -4.69* --4.46* -7.56* Rural -- 5.62 10.85" 1.62 32.87* Health (ADL) -5.33* 1.58 -6.05* -10.92" -14.65" Spouse works 5.98" 2.05 1.76 -3.00 10.15 Unskilled -1.90 2.02 32.39* 24.69* 21.91" Economic resources 11.92* -3.92* --4.50* -6.21 9.78*
Constant -3.71 -5.90 30.19 Sex -7.97* --4.71 -13.23* Age -7.10" -2.36* -4.73* Rural -- 3.35 5.66 Health (ADL) -5.08 -1.31 -6.16* Spouse works 12.01" -0.66 0.99 Unskilled -2.88 0.15 33.36* Economic resources 13.32" -3.15" -4.63* Ethnic variables:
NES migrant 5.73* . . . . Chinese . . . . -7.41 * Indian -- 24.99* -11.74"
less l ikely to work than others, as indicated by the signs of coefficients. In the W H O surveys skilled workers are more l ikely to be employed whilst in the Australian surveys having working spouse is a predictor of being at work rather than not. In Malaysia and Korea only, rural workers are more l ikely to be working than urban workers, net of other factors. All effects are in the directions expected from the work-leisure model.
Considering effects at the Grand Mean for each country, sex can be seen as having a large effect, for example, in Malaysia, knowing someone is a woman reduces the probabili ty of working by 13 percent and in Austral ia by 8 percent. Similarly in Austral ia economic resources have a large impact on the retirement choice but in a positive direction where a higher level of adequacy of economic resources improves by probabil i ty of working by 12 percent. In Fij i and Malaysia, those with more resources tend not to work. The addition of ethnic variables to the basic models for Australia, Fij i and Malaysia adds significantly to the models. Knowing that an Australian has a non-English speaking back- ground improves the probabil i ty of working by 6 percent, a 60 percent increase in the rate of participation. In Fiji, Indian ethnicity adds 25 percent to the probabil i ty and Malaysian Chinese ethnicity a negative 7.5 percent, the opposite
TA
BL
E V
A
" mul
ti-no
mia
l lo
git
mod
el: w
ork
vers
us p
ensi
on
Aus
tral
ia
Fiji
Mal
aysi
a Ph
ilipp
ines
R
epub
lic o
f Kor
ea
Con
stan
t -1
.694
Se
x 1.
351
Age
-2
.256
R
ural
--
H
ealth
(A
DL
) -0
.326
Sp
ouse
wor
ks
2.14
4 U
nski
lled
0.02
2 E
cono
mic
res
ourc
es 0
.912
(0.5
231)
-0
.560
(0
.711
2)
-0.3
34
(0.5
948)
1.
136
(0.2
190)
* -0
.391
(0
.627
4)
-0.4
30
(0.3
746)
-0
.449
(0
.185
1)*
-0.3
22
(0.1
878)
0.
023
(0.1
153)
-0
.330
--
1.
554
(0.4
773)
* 0.
467
(0.3
216)
-0
.346
(0
.307
5)
0.25
2 (0
.247
1)
-0.2
83
(0.1
929)
-0
.648
(0
.223
6)*
-0.6
00
(0.6
014)
-0
.813
(0
.354
2)*
0.42
2 (0
.225
1)
2.43
8 (0
.608
6)*
2.90
8 (0
.366
3)*
0.76
4 (0
.123
4)*
-0.5
11
(0.2
138)
* -0
.097
(0
.219
9)
0.62
7
(0.7
667)
3.
783
(0.8
766)
(0
.397
9)
1.53
(0
.512
6)*
(0.1
522)
* -0
.599
(0
.181
5)*
(0.3
851)
1.
53
(0.4
883)
* (0
.242
2)*
-0.9
94
(0.2
517)
* (0
.376
7)
-0.9
71
(0.5
433)
(0
.389
0)*
1.54
8 (0
.699
4)
(0.2
525)
* 0.
035
(0.2
064)
t-n
t'rl
Z -1
,-.1
Log
like
lihoo
d (d
r) -
478.
86
(12)
* -2
67.7
8 (1
4)*
-558
.59
(14)
* -3
17.3
7 (1
4)*
-302
.83
(14)
* ,-v
t'r
l r~
Con
stan
t -3
.957
(0
.655
4)
-1.0
13
(0.8
323)
-0
.917
(0
.690
3)
Sex
1.24
7 (0
.227
3)*
-0.3
29
(0.6
561)
-0
.496
(0
.397
6)
Age
-2
.164
(0
.187
9)*
-0.2
80
(0.1
928)
-0
.092
(0
.121
9)
Rur
al
..
..
1
.45
2
(0.4
936)
* 0.
632
(0.3
608)
H
ealth
(A
DL
) -0
.147
(0
.315
0)
0.28
5 (0
.254
5)
-0.1
78
(0.2
133)
Sp
ouse
wor
ks
3.15
0 (0
.295
9)*
-0.4
18
(0.6
382)
-0
.741
(0
.370
5)*
Uns
kille
d -0
.230
(0
.235
2)
2.33
2 (0
.623
4)*
3.13
9 (0
.383
7)*
Eco
nom
ic r
esou
rces
1
.07
3
(0.1
328)
* -0
.289
(0
.225
7)
0.08
5 (0
.235
9)
Eth
nic
vari
able
s:
NE
S m
igra
nt
1.94
1 (0
.304
2)*
..
..
..
..
C
hine
se
..
..
..
..
.
1.74
4 (0
.495
4)*
Indi
an
..
..
2.
02
(0.5
084)
* 1
.19
9
(0.4
226)
*
"11 z
Log
like
lihoo
d (d
f)--
449.
03
(14)
* -2
58.9
3 (1
6)*
-523
.97
(16)
* -3
17.3
7 (1
4)*
-302
.83
(14)
* ta
O
TA
BL
E V
oo
B
: mul
ti-no
mia
l lo
git m
odel
: w
ork
vs fa
mily
sup
port
Aus
tral
ia
Fiji
Mal
aysi
a Ph
ilipp
ines
R
epub
lic
of K
orea
Con
stan
t -0
.713
(0
.959
9)
-0.0
36
(0.5
609)
-1
.017
(0
.443
7)
3.33
4 (0
.625
9)
-0.2
35
(0.5
171)
Se
x 1.
797
(0.4
790)
* !.
622
(0.4
734)
* 1.
544
(0.2
309)
* -0
.826
(0
.304
0)*
1.31
8 (0
.276
4)*
Age
-2
.412
(0
.239
3)*
-0.4
05
(0.1
468)
* -0
.389
(0
.077
2)*
-0.3
30
(0.1
234)
* -0
.656
(0
.114
0)*
Rur
al
..
..
0.
895
(0.3
755)
* 0.
600
(0.2
411)
* 0.
557
(0.2
944)
1.
371
(0.2
716)
* H
ealth
(AD
L)
-0.2
73
(0.4
349)
0.
039
(0.1
758)
-0
.391
(0
.139
1)
-0.8
85
(0.1
973)
* -0
.879
(0
.170
1)*
Spou
se w
orks
4
.25
1
(0.6
824)
* -1
.505
(0
.479
4)*
0.10
5 (0
.267
7)
0.23
6 (0
.303
7)
-0.4
66
(0.3
179)
U
nski
lled
2.4
11
(1
.062
)*
0.92
2 (0
.333
1)*
1.36
2 (0
.294
4)*
1.3
35
(0
.298
7)*
0.70
4 (0
.344
7)*
Eco
nom
ic re
sour
ces
2.29
7 (0
.360
4)*
-0.8
83
(0.1
724)
* -0
.285
(0
.143
4)*
-0.9
08
(0.1
826)
* 0.
415
(0.1
295)
*
Log
like
lihoo
d (d
f) -
-478
.86
(12)
* -2
67.7
8 (1
4)*
-558
.59
(14)
* -3
17.3
7 (1
4)*
-302
.83
(14)
* z
Con
stan
t -1
.123
(1
.364
) -0
.953
(0
.662
3)
-0.2
63
(0.5
019)
Se
x 1.
769
(0.4
823)
* -1
.539
(0
.513
4)*
1.47
7 (0
.233
6)*
Age
-2
.320
(0
.242
1)*
-0.3
73
(0.1
500)
* -0
.377
(0
.074
)*
Rur
al
..
..
0.
750
(0.3
795)
* 0.
217
(0.2
649)
H
ealth
(AD
L)
-8.0
24
(0.4
419)
* 0.
523
(0.1
837)
-0
.419
(0
.141
3)*
Spou
se w
orks
4.
338
(0.7
741)
* -1
.318
(0
.517
5)*
0.22
2 (0
.274
6)
Uns
kille
d 2.
239
(1.0
62)*
0.
849
(0.3
426)
* 1.
349
(0.2
969)
* E
cono
mic
reso
urce
s 2.
276
(0.3
722)
* -0
.727
(0
.177
5)*
--0.
322
(0.1
454)
E
thni
c va
riab
les:
N
ES m
igra
nt
0.18
8 (0
.880
8)
..
..
..
..
C
hine
se
..
..
..
..
--
0.90
0 (0
.257
2)*
Indi
an
..
..
0.
962
(0.3
599)
* --
0.92
6 (0
.428
9)*
> t-
t"
Log
like
lihoo
d (d
f) -
-449
.03
(14)
* -2
58.9
3 (1
6)*
-523
.97
(16)
* -3
17.3
7 (1
4)*
-302
.83
(14)
*
TA
BL
E V
C
: mul
ti-n
omia
l log
it m
odel
: pen
sion
s vs
fam
ily
supp
ort
Aus
tral
ia
Fij
i M
alay
sia
Phil
ippi
nes
Rep
ubli
c of
Kor
ea
Con
stan
t 0.
981
(0.8
117)
-0
.597
(0
.534
5)
-0.6
83
(0.4
913)
2.
198
(0.7
592)
-4
.018
(0
.750
7)
Sex
0.44
6 (0
.429
2)
2.01
3 (0
.504
3)*
1.97
4 (0
.339
2)*
1.2
8
(0.3
840)
* --
-0.2
13
(0.4
586)
A
ge
-0.1
56
(0.1
523)
-0
.083
(0
.133
4)
-0.4
12
(0.1
001)
0.
001
(0.1
388)
-0
.057
(0
.151
0)
Rur
al
..
..
-0
.659
(0
.343
9)
0.13
3 (0
.267
9)
0.90
3 (0
.370
2)*
-0.1
64
(0.4
337)
H
ealt
h (A
DL
) 0.
524
(0.3
097)
-0
.272
(0
.192
6)
-0.1
08
(0.1
603)
-0
.237
(0
.225
6)
0.11
5 (0
.199
9)
Spou
se w
orks
2.
106
(0.6
460)
* -0
.905
(0
.475
3)
0.91
9 (0
.320
5)*
-0.1
86
(0.3
756)
0.
504
(0.4
743)
U
nski
lled
2.
389
(1.0
40)*
-1
.516
(0
.549
0)*
-1.5
47
(0.2
899)
* 0.
572
(0.3
740)
0.
156
(0.6
513)
E
cono
mic
reso
urce
s 1
.38
5
(0.3
393)
* -0
.372
(0
.144
4)*
-0.1
89
(0.1
948)
-1
.535
(0
.245
3)*
0.38
0 (0
.177
2)*
7~
rrl
-]
t'rl
Z ,.-1
Log
like
liho
od (d
f) -
478.
86
(12)
* -2
67.7
8 (1
4)*
-558
.59
(14)
* -3
17.3
7 (1
4)*
-302
.83
(14)
* -1
trl
Con
stan
t 2.
834
Sex
0.52
2 A
ge
-0.1
56
Rur
al
--
Hea
lth
(AD
L)
0.00
6 Sp
ouse
wor
ks
1.19
U
nski
lled
2.
47
Eco
nom
ic re
sour
ces
1.20
E
thni
c va
riab
les:
N
ES
mig
rant
-1
.75
Chi
nese
--
In
dian
--
(1.2
03)
0.59
7 (0
.596
7)
0.65
4 (0
.591
8)
(0.4
295)
1.
869
(0.4
483)
* 1
.97
3
(0.3
640)
* (0
.153
5)
-0.9
28
(0.1
345)
-0
.285
(1
.081
)*
--
-0.7
02
(0.3
539)
* -0
.416
(0
.307
4)
(0.3
13)
-0.2
33
(0.1
919)
-0
.240
(0
.186
5)
(0.7
204)
-0
.899
(0
.470
2)
0.96
3 (0
.342
4)*
(1.0
38)*
-1
.482
(0
.551
5)*
-1.7
89
(0.3
166)
* (0
.348
6)*
-0.4
37
(0.1
551)
* -0
.406
(0
.215
4)
(0.8
30)*
.
..
..
..
.
..
..
..
.
2.10
(0
.375
1)*
--
-1.0
59
(0.4
039)
* 0.
817
(0.3
703)
*
7,
c~
"rl o 5 Z
Log
like
liho
od (d
f)--
449.
03
(14)
* -2
58.9
3 (1
6)*
-523
.97
(16)
* -3
17.3
7 (1
4)*
-302
.83
(14)
*
Not
es:
(1)*
sig
nifi
cant
at a
lev
el p
< 0
.05;
(2)
ana
lyse
s us
ing
LIM
OE
P (G
reen
198
6).
ta~
',D
40 JOHN McCALLUM
direction to the one expected. A further model including family support and pensions as alternative means of support in old age will be used to further explore this effect.
The multi-nominal logit models for support sources (Table V) model predictors for contrasts between having as main source of support - work, pensions and family - with the probability of being in any one state constrained to one. Considering first the contrast between work and pensions as main sources of support, only the Australian model retains similar significant variables to the working/not working model but health no longer reaches significance. The major changes in other models are the importance of the rural variable in Fiji and Korea and the lack of significance of age and sex in Fiji and Malaysia. Australia had universal public pensions after age 70 years at the time of the surveys and age is a significant factor here relative to other countries. In Australia, non-English Speaking Migrants are less likely than other Australians to get pensions as a main source of income. This is a similar situation to Indian Fijians and Chinese Malaysians. However Indian Malaysians are more likely to have pensions than to work, relative to Malays.
Considering now the models for work contrasted to family support, women, other things being equal, do not depend on family support as opposed to work whereas older men do. Unskilled people also tend not to depend upon family whereas those with higher economic resources tend to depend on family in all countries excepting Australia and Korea. In Australia those with more economic resources tend to work rather than to depend upon family. There is no significant migrant factor for Australia but the ethnic variables in Fiji and Malaysia are significant. In Malaysia both Chinese and Indian ethnic groups are more likely to draw on family support than Malays, whereas in Fiji Indians have a stronger preference for work than Fijians and are less likely to have family as their main source of support.
Finally contrasting the two categories of support other than work (pension vs. family support), we can confirm the results from the previous two contrasts. Unskilled Australians have the choice of benefits of universal age pensions whereas in Fiji and Malaysia unskilled workers are more likely to depend upon family in old age. Again all ethnic variables are significant, all predicting in favour of family support, excepting for Indian Malaysians who are relatively more dependent on pensions than family.
DISCUSSION
The key contributions of the analyses are in the effect of ethnicity dummies and the 'choice' of family for support. Considering firstly diversity within countries, migrants and ethnic "minorities" are in general more likely to be working after age 60 than mainstream elderly, with the exception of Chinese in Malaysia. This result derives from the particular operation of strong family support system of the Chinese community (MCA 1987), namely older Chinese reach an age when they expect to be taken care of by family regardless of their levels of functional health. When the contrast is between pensions and work, as the multi-nominal
RETIREMENT IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION 41
logit model shows, Chinese Malaysians, like NES migrants to Australia and Indian Fijians, prefer work rather than pensions. The exceptions are the Indian Malaysians who are dependent on pensions rather than family because of relatively high representation in lower level Railway and Public Works Depart- ment jobs which are well covered by pensions. In the family versus work contrast, family outweighs work for both the Chinese and Indians minorities relative to the Malay majority. The apparently contradictory finding for Chinese in Malaysians is, then, consistent with strong norms for family support of elders amongst minorities - but norms expressed in particular ways. Similarly particular circumstances for Indian groups in Malaysia and Fiji alter the direction of choice, namely, towards pensions among the Malaysian group.
With rapid economic development in Fiji and Malaysia, the post-colonial political stability has been fractured within dominant elites and ethnic divisions have come to the fore (Ong 1987). Ethnic communities and families provide a significant buffer against external threats. Alternatively, Provident Fund Schemes in Fiji and Malaysia provide pensions to public sector urban elites but not rural workers and not adequately even for urban private sector workers. Because of this family remains as a major source of income support in old age in all countries except Australia.
In developing countries there is a tendency for wealthy families to avoid the "shame" of their elders having to work for wages. This does not imply that they do not remain major contributors to families and family enterprises. Older Fijians were found to have difficulty in the WHO surveys in nominating a main source of income because of the family/village basis of both work and family support for Melanesians. Chinese in Malaysia seem to have been able to mobilize family finances in a way that provides effective security for old age.
Controlling for relevant variables, women are more likely to be working for their main source of income than dependent upon family support. They typically are involved in craft work, as well as, receiving remittances from their working children in cities. The lack of women's access to pensions in most countries, raises potential concerns about the treatment of women in rapidly aging societies. In Fiji, above age 50, only about 10 percent of National Provident Fund Accounts are those of women and of all accounts, women have only 20 percent (Bienefeld 1984).
Specific findings relate to the effects of development, evident in the contrast between Australia and the other countries. In Australia there is a strong tendency for common status i.e. work or retirement between husbands and wives - the family nucleus in old age. Women tend to retire with their older husbands to share retirement leisure or to avoid "role reversal" (McCallum 1987). As women develop more individual careers this early retirement effect may also disappear in developed countries. The tendency to nuclear families and improving education and status of women may have this effect.
One further proposition about the impact of levels of economic development deserves further investigation. In Australia, and also in similar analyses in Japan (Okamura 1987), those with more economic resources are likely to work, probably, because they have higher than average consumption expectations and
42 JOHN McCALLUM
access to good quality work. The effect is also positive and significant for Korea, as shown in Figure IV. However in lesser developed Fiji, Malaysia, and the Philippines those with more resources tend not to work which is consistent with norms of elite families. Further in these three countries those with more economic resources are more likely to depend on family support than work, probably in the form of household wealth rather than family remittances. In Australia wealthier elderly are more dependent on work income than on family support. The proposal put forward here is that, with increasing economic development, household preferences will tend to shift towards a preference for work and family support will decline as Government welfare increases. There is no necessity intended in this hypothesis and some aspects may be affected by policy or cultural factors. Countries in the region may well choose, as Japan has done, to leave a substantial burden for support of elderly remaining with families.
These issues are complex and the data used here limited. The purpose of the analysis is to provoke more detailed analyses and discussion of retirement in the region. The opportunities for rapidly developing countries to fine tune older worker and pension policies need to be actively grasped. If this is done different outcomes may be achieved compared to those in slowly ageing developed countries.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Data used in this paper derive from the WHO Survey of the Aged in the Western Pacific (Andrews et al. 1986), the Australian National University Ageing and the Family Project (Rowland et al. 1984) and the Australian Institute of Multicultural Affairs Survey of Non-English Speaking Background Aged Migrants (Pensabene and Kabala 1986). Analysis of data was undertaken with the assistance of John Morris at the Sociology Department, The Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University. Comments of three anonymous reviewers contributed to revisions of the paper.
REFERENCES
Andrews, G.R. 1987 Ageing in Asia and the Pacific. Comprehensive Gerontology 1: 24-32.
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