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Asia PacificAsian Dashboard June 2013

Savills World Research Asia Pacific

savills.com.hk/research

Asia Pacific | Asian Dashboard June 2013


3

AUSTRALIAADELAIDEBRISBANECANBERRAGOLD COASTMELBOURNE (3)PERTHSUNSHINE COASTSYDNEY (3)

CHINABEIJINGCHENGDUCHONGQINGDALIANGUANGZHOUHANGZHOUQINGDAOSHANGHAISHENYANGSHENZHENTIANJINXIAMENZHUHAI

HONG KONGCENTRAL (2)DISCOVERY BAYKOWLOON (2)TAIKOO SHING (2)

INDIABANGALORECHENNAIDELHIMUMBAI (2)PUNE

JAPANTOKYO

MACAUMACAU

MALAYSIAKUALA LUMPUR

NEW ZEALANDAUCKLAND (2)

PHILIPPINES

SINGAPORESINGAPORE (3)

SOUTH KOREASEOUL

TAIWANTAIPEITAICHUNG

THAILANDBANGKOK

VIET NAMHA NOIHO CHI MINH CITY

asia pacificnetwork

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3

3

2

SAVILLS OFFICE ASSOCIATES/SUBSIDIARY OFFICE

2

14OFFICES &

ASSOCIATES

AUSTRALASIA

6OFFICES &

ASSOCIATES

INDIA

35OFFICES &

ASSOCIATES

ASIA

Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company, established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. The company now has over 500 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.

In Asia Pacific, Savills has 49 regional offices comprising some 25,000 staff. Asia Pacific markets include Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Macau, New Zealand, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and Viet Nam, with associate offices

in Malaysia and the Philippines. Savills provides a comprehensive range of advisory and professional property services to developers, owners, tenants and investors alike. These include consultancy services, facilities management, space planning, corporate real estate services, property management, leasing, valuation and sales in all key segments of commercial, residential, industrial, retail, investment and hotel property.

A unique combination of sector knowledge and entrepreneurial flair gives clients access to real estate

expertise of the highest calibre. We are regarded as an innovative-thinking organisation supported by excellent negotiating skills. Savills chooses to focus on a defined set of clients, offering a premium service to organisations and individuals with whom we share a common goal. Savills is synonymous with a high-quality service offering and a premium brand, taking a long-term view of real estate and investing in strategic relationships.

An introduction to Savills

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy


June 2013Asia Pacific | Asian Dashboard

Contents

04060810121416182022

Asia PacificAustralia

China (Northern) - BeijingChina (Eastern) - Shanghai

Hong KongJapan

SingaporeSouth Korea

TaiwanViet Nam



Asia Pacific

"The focus of international and regional investors

remains on Australia and Japan where generous

cap rate spreads are supported by deep and liquid

markets. Elsewhere in the region, opportunities are

limited. The retail story is as compelling as ever,

particularly in first- and second-tier cities in China,

but hurdles to entry have curtailed deal volumes,

even as institutional-grade opportunities appear to

be increasing."

Frank MarriottRegional Head, Capital Markets+852 2842 [email protected]

TAbLE 1

Major office investment transactions

Source: Real Capital Analytics, Savills Research & Consultancy

Country District Property Transaction date Unit GFA

(sq m)US$

(million)US$ per

sq m Buyer

Australia brisbane 480 Queen Apr 2013 Whole block 55,562 566 10,183 Dexus Property Group

Japan Minato Ward, Tokyo

Panasonic Tokyo Shiodome building Mar 2013 Sectional 45,774 540 11,790 Sumitomo Mitsui Finance & Leasing

(90%), Nippon building Fund (10%)

Japan Minato Ward, Tokyo Sony City Osaki Feb 2013 Sectional 123,604 1,202 9,723 Nippon building Fund (60%);

domestic institutional investor (40%)

Singapore Singapore Mapletree Anson Feb 2013 Whole block 30,830 547 17,760 Mapletree Commercial Trust

Australia Melbourne 567 Collins Street Feb 2013 Whole block 55,000 450 8,182 Investa Funds

GRAPH 2

Cross-border capital outflow from Asia Pacific, 2008–Q1/2013*

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

US

$ (b

illio

n)

GRAPH 1

Cross-border capital inflow to Asia Pacific, 2008–Q1/2013*

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

US

$ (b

illio

n)

Source: Real Capital Analytics, Savills Research & Consultancy *based on independent reports of properties and portfolios of US$10 million and greater. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.



Asia Pacific

TAbLE 4

Major retail investment transactions


Singapore Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong

Rents 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 10.2%

Prices 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0%

Average cap rate* 5.1% 4.8% 3.8% 3.0%

TAbLE 3

Retail rent and price CAGR, 2013–2015

GRAPH 4

Asia Pacific retail** buyer profile, 2012*

Cross-Border21%

Institutional/Equity Fund

16%

Listed/REITs15%

Private25%

User/other3%

Unknown20%

GRAPH 6

International tourist arrivals in Asia Pacific region, 2007–2011*

-5

0

5

10

15

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

%

US

$ (m

illio

n)

International tourist arrivals (LHS) Growth rate (RHS)

GRAPH 5

International tourism receipts in Asia Pacific region, 2007–2011*

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), Savills Research & Consultancy *Provisional figures or data. Data as collected by UNTWO, June 2012.

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

%

US

$ (m

illio

n)

International tourism receipts (LHS) Growth rate (RHS)

Country District Property Transaction date Unit GFA

(sq m)US$

(million)US$ per

sq m Buyer

Australia Erina, New South Wales Erina Fair May 2013 50% 50,901 412 8,084 Lend Lease, National Pension Service

China Pudong, Shanghai Jinqiao Life Hub Mar 2013 80% 114,732 519 4,521 JV between Keppel Land Ltd. and Alpha Investment Partners

Japan Musashino, Tokyo Yodobashi Camera Multimedia Mar 2013 Whole block 37,933 302 7,965 United Urban Investment

Australia Claremont, Western Australia Claremont Quarter Feb 2013 50% 60,000 171.5 5,717 QIC Global Real Estate

Australia Shailer Park, Queensland Top Ryde City Nov 2012 Whole block 78,215 341 4,359 blackstone

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy *Cap rate refers to NOI yield.

Sydney Shanghai Beijing Tokyo Hong Kong Singapore

Rents 9.4% -3.5% -2.4% 5.5% 7.5% 2.5%

Prices 7.5% -7.8% 3.0% 5.0% -2.5% 2.5%

Average cap rate 6.8% 5.5% 5.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.5%

TAbLE 2

Grade A office rent and price CAGR, 2013–2015


GRAPH 3

Asia Pacific CBD office buyer profile, 2012*

Cross-Border18%

Institutional/Equity Fund

16%

Listed/REITs22%

Private20%

User/other15%

Unknown9%

Source: Real Capital Analytics, Savills Research & Consultancy *based on independent reports of properties and portfolios of US$10 million and greater. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed. **Including retail strips and malls, and other retail facilities.



TAbLE 2



Property State Transaction date Unit NLA

(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

567 Collins Street Victoria Feb 2013 Whole block 55,000 450.0 8,182 Investa Property

231 Elizabeth Street New South Wales Feb 2013 Whole block 23,275 201.0 8,636 bright Ruby

225 George Street New South Wales Dec 2012 25% 85,511 271.3 3,172 DEXUS Property Group

12 Creek Street Queensland Jul 2012 Whole block 32,207 246.1 7,641 DEXUS/DEXUS Wholesale Property Fund

10 Eagle Street Queensland Jun 2012 Whole block 28,191 195.0 6,917 Commonwealth Managed Investments Ltd

"Nationally, over A$10 billion of commercial property has been transacted which gives Savills Research confidence that the markets

are operating normally. The next year holds greater optimism – the yields on offer in investment markets are compelling as returns on fixed interest products dwindle. Commercial property yields in particular look very attractive."

Australia - Offices

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents -1.7% 4.2% 2.6% 12.3% 9.5% 9.4%

Prices 0.0% 5.9% 2.5% 7.0% 7.0% 8.0%

Cap rate 7.3% 7.0% 7.0% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9%

TAbLE 1

Sydney Grade A office forecast, 2010–2015E


GRAPH 1

Sydney office – CBD net additions and net absorption, 2007– Dec 2015E


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Net additions Net absorption

%

GRAPH 2

Australian office – CBD sales by price range, Mar 2003–Mar 2013


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

>A$75 mil A$50-A$100 mil A$25-A$49 mil <A$24 mil

A$

(mill

ions

)

GRAPH 3

Australian office – CBD buyer profile, 12 months–Mar 2013

Trust, 20%

Fund,32%

Private Investor, 15%

Developer,2%

Foreign Investor,

19%

Syndicate, 7%

Owner Occupier,

1%

Undisclosed, 2%

Government, 2%

Paul CraigManaging Director - International Investment+61 422 235 [email protected]




TAbLE 4



Property State Transaction date Unit NLA

(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Claremont Quarter Western Australia Feb 2013 50% 60,000 171.5 5,717 QIC Global Real Estate

Top Ryde City New South Wales Nov 2012 Whole block 78,215 341.0 4,360 blackstone

The Glen Victoria Jun 2012 50% 63,374 207.4 6,546 Perron Group

Galleria SC Western Australia May 2012 50% 146,456 400.8 5,473 Perron Group

Noosa Civic Centre Queensland Apr 2012 Whole block 31,791 200.0 6,291 QIC

"Consumer confidence is improving and the cyclical falls in interest rates are helping. Employment is growing strongly.

The high Australian dollar is keeping prices for goods low. Savills expects the retail sector to evolve to take advantage of the structural issues rather than be over-run by them."

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 2.0% 2.2%

Prices 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 4.0% 4.5%

Cap rate* 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%

TAbLE 3

Australian retail forecast, 2010–2015E

GRAPH 4

Australian retail – market yields by centre type, Mar 2003–Mar 2013


5

6

7

8

9

10M

ar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Regional Sub-regional Neighbourhood Bulky goods

%

GRAPH 5

Australian retail – retail property sales by price range, Mar 2003–Mar 2013


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

>A$100 mil A$50-A$100 mil A$10-A$50 mil <A$10 mil

A$

(mill

ions

)

GRAPH 6

Australian retail – retail property sales by buyer profile, 12 months–Mar 2013

Trust, 13%

Fund,17%

Private Investor, 41%

Developer,1%

Foreign Investor,

20%

Syndicate, 3%

Owner Occupier,

2%

Undisclosed, 2%

Government, 1%

Australia - Retail


Rino CarpinelliManaging Director - Capital Transactions+61 8 8237 [email protected]




TAbLE 2



Property Location Transaction date Unit Aboveground

GFA (sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

MOMA Tower East SecondRing Road Apr 2013 Whole block 38,700 208 5,369 Shun Tak Holdings

The Merchant Tower CbD Apr 2013 20/F–28/F 17,545 116 6,610 Grosvenor

bogong International Centre Tower A CbD vicinity Feb 2013 Whole block 32,106 218 6,797 Luneng Group

The Place Tower CbD Dec 2012 6/F–16/F 22,187 136 6,124 Sinomedia Holding Limited

China Electronics building Tower b Zhongguancun Sep 2012 Whole block 43,200 260 6,023 Ping'an Trust

"After aggressive growth in 2011, Beijing’s Grade A office rents started to lose momentum in 2012 with growth slowing to close to

Grant JiSenior Director Investment+8610 5925 [email protected]

zero by the first quarter of 2013. Nevertheless, capital values are likely to remain relatively firm in the short to medium term, with relatively limited investment stock combined with strong enough demand from investors, primarily domestic companies, to support stable yields."

Beijing - OfficesTAbLE 1

Beijing Grade A office forecast, 2010–2015E

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy *Grade A office capital values.

GRAPH 1

Beijing Grade A office supply, take-up and vacancy, 2003–2015E


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 E

2014 E

2015 E

Supply (LHS) Net take-up (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS)

'000

sq

m

%

GRAPH 2

Beijing office en-bloc transaction volumes, 2007–Q1/2013


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

RM

B (b

illio

n)

'000 sq m

Consideration Area

GRAPH 3

Beijing office en-bloc transaction volumes and unit price, 2007–Q1/2013

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

RM

B per sq m

Area (LHS) Unit price (RHS)

'000

sq

m


2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 19.0% 44.2% 13.8% -2.6% -1.8% -3.0%

Prices* 29.9% 33.4% 17.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Cap rate 5.8% 6.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2%



TAbLE 4



Property Location Transaction date Unit GFA

(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Poly New Jasmine Commercial Plot

Tiangongyuan, Daxing district Q2/2012 Whole block 122,000 370 3,036 CapitaMalls Asia

Metro City

East Fourth Ring Road, Chaoyang

district

Q3/2011 Whole block 116,800 187 (50% equity) 3,202 Unknown

Le Mall Wukesong, Haidian district Q4/2010 Whole block 290,000 906

5,580(above ground)

Hong Kong Chater Group

Meiyu Jiayuan North block building 3

Xiaotunlu, Fentai district Q4/2010 Whole block 17,446 40

2,268(above ground)

beijing Urban-Rural Trade Center Co, Ltd

"Beijing's retail leasing market recorded lacklustre demand since Q2/2012 as established fashion brands, especially

Spring CaoSenior Associate DirectorInvestment+8610 5925 [email protected]

high-end and luxury retailers, were more conservative on expansion plans. Demand from new entrants, mid and mass fashion, F&B and children’s brands was active by contrast. The retail investment market, however, remained quiet as lack of investment-grade stock remains an issue."

TAbLE 3

Beijing mid-to-high end retail forecast, 2010–2015E

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy *Prime retail strata-title prices. **NOI yields.

GRAPH 4

Beijing mid-to-high end shopping mall supply, take-up and vacancy, 2008–2016E


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

'000

sq

m

Supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS)

GRAPH 5

Beijing retail sales, 2008–2012


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YoY

US

$ (b

illio

n)

Retail sales (LHS) Growth rate (RHS)

GRAPH 6

Beijing tourist arrivals, 2008–2012

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YoY

No

. of v

isito

rs (m

illio

n)

Visitor arrivals (LHS) Growth rate (RHS)

Beijing - Retail


2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 4.1% 10.9% 8.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Prices* 1.9% -2.9% 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Cap rate** 5% 5% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%



TAbLE 2



Property District Transaction date Unit GFA

(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Cross Tower Huangpu Q2/2013 Whole block 42,000 273 6,501 Gaw Capital

Central Plaza Huangpu Q2/2013 Whole block 47,200 267 5,651 Carlyle

Shanghai Ocean Tower Huangpu Q1/2013 Whole block 50,345 299 5,942 ARA Asset Management

Luheng building Huangpu Q4/2012 Whole block 15,760 189 11,991 PICC

Huamin Imperial Tower Jing'an Q3/2012 Whole block 47,500 351 7,384 blackstone & Ting Hsin International Group

"Offices in Shanghai remain highly sought-after by both overseas and domestic investors. The growing self-use demand for office

Albert LauHead & Managing DirectorChina+86 21 6391 [email protected]

towers has helped to push capital values to new highs and yields to new lows. New supply in coming years will test investors' mettle though as occupancy rates and rents are expected to start falling (especially in decentralised areas) as demand fails to keep pace."

Shanghai - Offices

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 0.5% 11.1% 10.1% 6.0% 1.3% -8.0%

Prices 19.3% 18.5% 12.0% 8.0% -4.2% -11.2%

Cap rate 6.0% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.5% 5.7%

TAbLE 1

Shanghai Grade A office forecast, 2010–2015E


GRAPH 1

Shanghai Grade A office supply, take-up and vacancy, 2002–2015E


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

'000

sq

m


GRAPH 2

Shanghai Grade A office rental indices, Q1/2002–Q1/2013


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

All Puxi Pudong

Mar

200

2 =

100

GRAPH 3

Shanghai office en-bloc transactions, 2005–2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

RM

B (B

illio

ns)




TAbLE 4




(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Shanghai Hongxin Trendy Plaza Changning Q2/2013 Whole block 43,660 197 4,510 New World Department Store

Jingqiao Life Hub Pudong Q1/2013 Whole block(80% stake) 114,732 519 4,521 JV between Keppel Land Ltd

and Alpha Investment Partners

Junjiang International Shopping Center Yangpu Q4/2012 Whole block

(85% stake) 48,900 86 1,755 Friendship Group

Plaza 353 Huangpu Q4/2012 Whole block 40,270 393 9,763 Macquarie Group JV Abu Dhabi Investment Authority

Rich Gate Huangpu Q2/2012 Retail podium 11,330 169 14,919 Carlyle

"Although retail sales recorded slower growth in 2012 than in previous years, prime rents have remained firm and investors still

Siu Wing ChuDeputy Managing Director, ShanghaiHead of Retail, China+8621 6391 [email protected]

show strong interest in projects in mature retail areas. Retailers remain positive on the market, though more cautious about over-aggressively expanding their store footprints, focusing more on branding and same-store sales."

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 7.4% 7.0% 4.5% 3.0%–5.0% 3.0%–5.0% 3.0%–5.0%

Prices 14.5% 15.1% 7.7% 3.0%–5.0% 3.0%–5.0% 3.0%–5.0%

Cap rate* 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5%–4.0% 3.5%–4.0% 3.5%–4.0%

TAbLE 3

Shanghai prime retail forecast, 2013E–2014E

GRAPH 4

Shanghai retail supply, 2000–2015E


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Prime Secondary Emerging

'000

sq

m

GRAPH 5

Shanghai retail sales, 2001–2012


0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

24%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

RM

B (B

illio

ns)

Retail sales (LHS) Nominal growth rate (RHS)

GRAPH 6

Shanghai retail rental indices, Q1/2002–Q1/2013

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Q1/

2002

=100

Primary Secondary Emerging

Shanghai - Retail





TAbLE 2




(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Citibank Plaza Central May 2013 3/F–6/F 7,274 278 38,156 Champion REITs

Enterprise Square Kowloon bay Feb 2013 Tower 1–3, 12/F 3,763 34 9,021 Trade Legend Ltd/CSI Properties Ltd

Ovest Sheung Wan Feb 2013 Whole block 4,443 83 18,575 Akea Investments Ltd

Katherine House Tsim Sha Tsui Dec 2012 Whole block 4,607 101 21,844 Muitl-bright Ltd

88 Hing Fat Street Causeway bay Nov 2012 Whole block 10,379 141 13,587 Winner Dynasty Ltd

"Despite government measures to cool the commercial market, strong fundamentals are providing robust support to values as very limited

Raymond LeeCEO, Greater China+852 2842 [email protected]

new supply, low interest rates and abundant liquidity all act to maintain prices. In the rental market, 'demolition demand' from redevelopments and aggressive end-user acquisitions are tightening stock availability further."

Hong Kong - Offices

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 26.0% 15.8% 2.8% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0%

Prices 21.0% 17.0% 10.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0%

Cap rate 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% 3.6% 4.1% 4.3%

TAbLE 1

Hong Kong Grade A office forecast, 2010–2015E


GRAPH 1

Hong Kong Grade A office supply, take-up and vacancy, 2003–2015E

Source: Rating and Valuation Department, Savills Research & Consultancy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

%

'000

sq

m


GRAPH 2

Cross-border capital inflow to Hong Kong by property sector, 2008–Q1/2013*


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

US

$ (b

illio

n)

Office Retail Apartment Hotel Industrial Development site

GRAPH 3

Cross-border capital outflow from Hong Kong by property sector, 2008–Q1/2013*

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

US

$ (b

illio

n)




TAbLE 4




(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

58–60 Sai Yeung Choi Street South Mong Kok Feb 2013 G/F–1/F 279 73 262,314 Metro Radiant Ltd

Coastal Skyline Commercial Complex Tung Chung Dec 2012 Shopping mall 2,849 52 18,425 Maycarol Company Ltd

West 9 Zone Tai Kok Tsui Dec 2012 Commercial accommodation 5,699 81 14,262 blessed Group Ltd

H8 Tsim Sha Tsui Nov 2012 Whole block 4,190 86 20,572 Earn Well Development Ltd

Park Hotel Tsim Sha Tsui Oct 2012 G/F–3/F N/A 256 N/A Turbo Riches Ltd

"Recent months have witnessed a distinct cooling in the retail sector as the government's doubling of stamp duty, alongside

Peter YuenDeputy Managing DirectorHead of Investment & Sales+852 2842 [email protected]

more moderate rental growth expectations, have removed speculators and investors from the marketplace. Slowing has been most evident in the watches and jewellery sector after years of double-digit growth."

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 10.7% 9.3% 12.5% 9.7% 10.5% 9.9%

Prices 33.2% 27.3% 28.3% 6.0% 2.1% 0.0%

Cap rate* 3.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.3%

TAbLE 3

Hong Kong retail forecast, 2010–2015E

GRAPH 4

Hong Kong retail supply, take-up and vacancy, 2003–2015E

Source: Rating and Valuation Department, Savills Research & Consultancy *Estimated figures refer to supply of shopping centres from 2013 to 2015.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E*

2014E*

2015E*

'000

sq

m

Supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy (RHS)

%

GRAPH 5

Hong Kong retail sales, 2008–2012

Source: Census and Statistics Department, Savills Research & Consultancy

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

HK

$ (b

illio

n)


Yo

Y (%

)

GRAPH 6

Hong Kong tourist arrivals, 2008–2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

No

. of v

isito

rs (m

illio

n)


Yo

Y (%

)

Hong Kong - Retail

Source: Hong Kong Tourism board




TAbLE 2




(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Kamiyacho Central PlaceToranomon, Minato

WardMay 2013 Whole block 39,855 497 12,467 Hulic

Akasaka Garden City Akasaka, Minato Ward Apr 2013 Approximately 60% 46,777 30710,938

(bsaed on 60%)Westbrook Partners, Kenedix

Panasonic Tokyo Shiodome building

Higashi-Shinbashi, Minato Ward

Mar 2013 Sectional 45,774 540 11,790Sumitomo Mitsui Finance &

Leasing (90%), Nippon building Fund (10%)

Sony City OsakiOsaki, Shinagawa

WardFeb 2013 Sectional 123,604 1,202 9,723

Nippon building Fund (60%), domestic institutional investor

(40%)

Harumi Front Harumi, Chuo Ward Jan 2013 Whole block 45,459 339 7,455Japan Real Estate Investment

Corp

"The bold pro-growth economic strategy initiated by Prime Minister Abe has lifted investor sentiment at a time when Tokyo’s office

Toshio AokiAssociate Director, Investment+81 3 5562 [email protected]

market looks ‘good value’, both from an historical perspective and relative to other global cities. The rental market, meanwhile, is showing signs of a cyclical recovery that is likely to strengthen given the limited amount of new supply expected over the short- to mid-term."

Japan - Offices

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents -18.6% -4.8% 1.2% 6.8% 5.0% 6.0%

Prices -23.8% -5.3% 7.9% 11.2% 10.8% 6.0%

Cap rate 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1%

TAbLE 1

Tokyo Grade A office forecast, 2010–2015


GRAPH 1

Japan Grade A office supply, take-up and vacancy, 2003–2015E


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

2015F

Vacancy rate

'000

sq

m

Supply (LHS) Net absorption (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS)

GRAPH 2

Japan real estate investment volume by sector, 2009–Q1/2013

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy based on Real Capital Analytics and J-REIT press releases

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Total J-REIT Total J-REIT Total J-REIT Total J-REIT Total J-REIT

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

JPY

(bill

ion)

Office Logistics/industrial Retail Apartment Hotel Other

GRAPH 3

Japan real estate investor composition by sector, 2012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Office Retail Industrial Apartment Hotel Dev Site

Cross-border Institutional/equity fund Listed/REITsPrivate User/other Unknown


based on independent reports of properties and portfolios $10 million and greater. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed



TAbLE 4




(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Aeon Mall Chiba New Town Inzai City, Chiba

Prefecture Apr 2013 2 blocks 107,413 133 1,237 Aeon

Shibuya Flag (retail and office building)

Udagawacho, Shibuya Ward, Tokyo

Apr 2013 Whole block 7,766 328 42,169 Mori Trust Sogo REIT

ORE YurakuchoYurakucho, Chiyoda

Ward, TokyoApr 2013 Whole block 4,287 101 23,608 Orix JREIT

Ikebukuro SquareHigashi-Ikebukuro,

Toshima Ward, Tokyo Jan 2013 Whole block 11,958 224 18,764

Frontier Real Estate Investment Corp

Kohnan Sagamihara Nishihashimoto

Nishihashimoto, Midori Ward,

Sagamihara CityOct 2012 Whole block 40,284 94 2,323 Mori Trust Sogo REIT

"In the first half of 2013, assertive measures introduced by the government to boost domestic growth provided a shot to both

Jon SalyardsSenior Manager, Investment+81 3 5562 [email protected]

consumer and investor sentiment, with longer-term indicators also looking positive for Tokyo’s retail sector. Improvement has been most evident in the luxury sector, with demand for high-end items such as art and jewellery buoying sales at department stores in the first quarter."

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Average 1/F asking rent – Central Tokyo*, %YoY

-9.2% -0.8% -8.0% 1.0% 1.3% 2.5%

Cap rate** 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5%

TAbLE 3

Tokyo retail forecast, 2010–2015E

GRAPH 4

Average advertised rents in Tokyo's major shopping areas*, 2008–2012

Source: Attractors Lab and bAC Urban Projects *Ginza, Omotesando, Shibuya, Shinjuku, Ikebukuro

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US

$ p

er s

q m

1F Floors other than 1F

GRAPH 5

Retail sales growth in Japan, 2000–Q1/2013

Source: Japan Council of Shopping Centers, Japan Department Stores Association

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Q1/

2013

% Y

oY

Shopping centres Department stores

GRAPH 6

YoY change in real household* spending and income, Apr 2011–Apr 2013

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

2011 2012 2013

% Y

oY

Consumption expenditures Income

Japan - Retail

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications *Two-or-more-person households

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy. Rental information based on Attractors Lab and bAC Urban Projects *Ginza, Omotesando, Shibuya, Shinjuku, Ikebukuro. **Cap rate refers to NOI yield.



TAbLE 2


Source: Savills Research & Consultancy *Net floor area

Property Location Transaction date Unit GFA

(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

135 Cecil Street (former LKN building)

135 Cecil Street May 2013 Whole

block 7,718 144 18,698 Indonesian Typoon Tahir,founder of the Mayapada group

bright Chambers 108 Middle Road Apr 2013 Whole

block 3,884 37 9,398 Arjuno Holdings, a special-purpose vehicle managed by Pamfleet Asset Management (Singapore)

Samsung Hub 3 Church Street Mar 2013 #13–01/04 566 15 27,265 Qatar Airways

Gb building 143 Cecil Street Mar 2013 #25–01 504 9 17,397 N/A

AIA Changi A60 Changi Road Mar 2013 Whole

block 5,010 55 10,915 A consortium led by the Lian beng Group

San Centre 171 Chin Swee Road Mar 2013 Whole

block 12,253 91 7,418 Chip Eng Seng

"We believe that with supply of CBD Grade A office buildings limited in the coming three to four years, office rents will

rise rather than fall, aided by key landlords' control over current supply and stronger than normal holding power supported by the low interest rate environment. While this may appear conterintuitive to some observers, given the excess supply, one must keep in mind that 52% of this new supply is in areas outside the CBD."

Singapore - Offices

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 16.0% 17.0% 14.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Prices 38.2% 8.5% 0.0% 7.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Cap rate 4.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%

TAbLE 1

Singapore Grade A office forecast, 2010–2015E


GRAPH 1

Singapore Grade A office supply, take-up and vacancy, 2001–2015E


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

Net supply (LHS) Net demand (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS)

'000

sq

m

GRAPH 2

Cross-border capital inflow to Singapore by property sector, 2008–Q1/2013*


GRAPH 3

Cross-border capital outflow from Singapore by property sector, 2008–Q1/2013*

Christopher J Marriott CEO, Southeast Asia+65 6415 [email protected]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

US

$ (b

illio

n)


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

US

$ (b

illio

n)




TAbLE 4



"A large pipeline of supply looms in the suburbs, but well-located and -positioned malls in the heartlands may still buck the trend

to command premium rents. The expected increase in population coupled with rising household incomes are strong positives that hold up the market."

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 3.2% 3.2% -1.1% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Prices 6.2% 4.6% 1.6% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Cap rate* 5.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0%

TAbLE 3

Prime Orchard Road rental forecast, 2010–2015E

GRAPH 4

Singapore retail supply, take-up and occupancy, 2003–2015E


50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

Net supply (LHS) Historical net take-up (LHS) Occupancy (RHS)

'000

sq

m

GRAPH 5

Singapore retail sales growth, Jan 2011–Mar 2013

Source: Department of Statistics, Savills Research & Consultancy

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jan-11Feb-11M

ar-11A

pr-11M

ay-11Jun-11Jul-11A

ug-11S

ep-11O

ct-11N

ov-11D

ec-11Jan-12Feb-12M

ar-12A

pr-12M

ay-12Jun-12Jul-12A

ug-12S

ep-12O

ct-12N

ov-12D

ec-12Jan-13Feb-13M

ar-13

Retail sales (excluding motor vehicles) Watches and jewellery

GRAPH 6

Singapore tourist arrivals, 2001–2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Visitor arrivals (LHS) Tourism receipts (RHS)

No

.of v

isito

rs (m

illio

n)

S$

(billio

n)

Singapore - Retail

Source: Singapore Tourism board, Savills Research & Consultancy

Steven MingDeputy Managing DirectorHead, Investment & Sales+65 6415 [email protected]

Property Location Transaction date Unit NLA

(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

2HR 2 Havelock Road Mar 2013 Whole

block 16,157 227 14,082 Guthrie

16 ground-floor retail units comprising The Quayside's

retail podiumDec 2012 Whole

block 3,066 56 18,417 Rb Capital

Katong Junction 451 Joo Chiat Road Nov 2012 Whole

block 4,418 45 10,245East Coast Holdings, whose shareholders comprise real estate

investor Kishore buxani and offshore investors advised by Mukesh Valabhji of Seychelles-based Capital Management Group

nex (50% stake) 23 Serangoon Central Jul 2012 Sale of

shares 28,614 662 23,154 Mercatus Co-operative Ltd (the Singapore Labour Foundation (60%), NTUC Income (20%) and NTUC FairPrice (20%)

Parkway Parade (24% stake in Parkway Parade partnership)

which owns the property)

80 Marine Parade Road Jul 2012 Sale of

shares 12,544 205 16,318 NTUC Income




TAbLE 2



(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Daewoo E&C CbD Apr 2013 Whole block 54,566 360 6,598 RREEF

Unionsteel building Gangnam business District Apr 2013 Whole block 26,389 134 5,070 Samsung Life Insurance

GS Yeokjeon Tower CbD Mar 2013 Whole block 39,908 157 3,929 Vestas AMC

Doosan building Nonhyun-dong Mar 2013 b1/F, 2/F, 7/F, 10/F–20/F 39,874 127 3,186 Hana Daol AMC

LG Electronics Dogok-dong Mar 2013 Whole block 39,401 205 5,199 LG Electronics

"Considering the economic outlook, new office supply and other market conditions, the Seoul prime office vacancy rate will

Kyoungdon JeonCEO, Korea +82 2 2124 [email protected]

gradually decline after the second half of 2014. Due to the increase in liquidity in the market and low lending costs, demand for office investment is increasing and the required returns are getting lower."

South Korea - Offices

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Avereage annual rent increase rate

2.3% 1.9% 2.8% 2.4% 3.0% 3.2%

Prices 14.4% 5.0% 9.6% 6.4% 3.0% 5.2%

Cap rate 5.8% 5.7% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1%

TAbLE 1

Seoul prime office forecast, 2010–2015E


GRAPH 1

Seoul prime office supply, demand and vacancy, 2003–2017E

Source: Savills Korea

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F 16F 17F

'000

sq

m

Annual net addition to supply (LHS)Annual net absorption (LHS)Annual average vacancy (including owner occupied) (RHS)

GRAPH 2

Seoul office market transaction volume (prime and secondary), Q1/2007–Q1/2013


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

KR

W (t

rilli

on)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

GRAPH 3

Seoul prime office cap rate and five-year government bond yield, Q1/2005–Q1/2013

Source: Savills Korea Exchange rate: US$1 = KRW1,084.08 (Q1/2013)


-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Spread (RHS) Cap rate (LHS) Five-year treasury bond (LHS)

Basis

poin

ts



TAbLE 4



(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Homeplus (3 stores)Miryang

Gammandong, Samcheok

Mar 2013 Retail 67,724 146 2,164 Hana Daol AMC

Podo Mall Sillim Feb 2013 Retail 37,759 184 4,887 RREEF

Homeplus (4 stores) busan, Suwon, Yeongdeungpo, Aug 2012 Retail 240,191 560 2,325 IGIS AMC

Noon Square CbD Mar 2012 Retail 19,780 217 10,958 IGIS (former PS) AMC

"In 2013, the domestic economy is expected to fluctuate, depending on developments in global economic conditions. However, as experts have a

Crystal Lee Director,Investment Advisory +82 2 2124 [email protected]

more positive than negative view, the world economy is likely to recover gradually with the stabilising of the European economy. If the world economy improves gradually, the domestic economy is forecast to maintain a steady recovery."

Retail type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Department stores 10.0% 11.6% 11.4% 4.9% 4.9%

Large discount stores 3.6% 8.1% 9.0% 1.4% 2.7%

Convenience stores 13.2% 17.6% 17.9% 19.8% 11.5%

Online shopping malls 13.8% 22.1% 15.4% 11.8% 9.8%

TAbLE 3

YoY sales growth rate by retail type, 2009–2013E

Source: Statistics Korea, Shinsegae Retail Research

GRAPH 4

Korean retail sales, 2010–2012

Source: Statistics Korea

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

2010 2011 2012

KR

W (t

rilli

on)


GRAPH 5

Korean domestic consumption expenditure, Q1/2008–Q4/2012

Source: Statistics Korea

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

KR

W (b

illio

n)

GRAPH 6

Korean tourist arrivals, 2008–2012

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YoY (%

)

No.

of v

isit

ors

(mill

ions

)


South Korea - Retail

Source: Ministry of Culture, Sports & Tourism

Source: Savills Korea Exchange rate: US$1 = KRW1,084.08 (Q1/2013)



TAbLE 2




(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Zurich building Songshan district, Taipei City Q1/2013 7/F–12/F 9,805 90 9,179 Phoenix Property Investors

HCG building Zhongzheng district, Taipei City Q1/2013 Whole block 4,089 54 13,206 Pro Investment Institute

Auto 21 Headquarter Da-an district, Taipei City Q3/2012 Whole block 24,343 307 12,611 Cathay Life

Mercuries Horizon building Da-an district, Taipei City Q3/2012 Whole block 20,017 243 12,140 Cathay Life

Chinatrust Taichung Headquarter

Xitun district, Taichung City Q3/2012 Whole block 38,615 181 4,687 Chinatrust Commercial bank

and Chinatrust Life

Jianguo Yuanta building Zhongshan district, Taipei City Q3/2012 Whole block 15,633 102 6,525 Taiwan Life

"While local insurance companies are prohibited from purchasing properties, other investors took this chance to

Cynthia ChuManaging Director+886 2 8789 [email protected]

enter the market. This supported price levels in core areas and compressed yields to sub-2.5%. The investment restrictions may be loosened in the middle of Q2 due to aggressive negotiations with the authorities, while the newly released minimum investment yields will focus them on non-core areas."

Taiwan - Offices

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 6.3% 6.4% 0.8% 2.6% 3.0% 3.0%

Prices 13.7% 21.8% 26.0% 7.1% 3.0% 3.0%

Cap rate 3.4% 3.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4%

TAbLE 1

Taipei Grade A office forecast, 2010–2015E


GRAPH 1

Taipei Grade A office supply, take-up and vacancy, 2007–2015E


4%

7%

10%

13%

16%

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

'000

sq

m

New supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy (RHS)

GRAPH 2

Cross-border capital inflow to Taiwan by property sector, 2008–2012*

Source: Real Capital Analytics, Savills Research & Consultancy *based on independent reports of properties and portfolios US$10 million and greater. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

US

$ (m

illio

n)

Development site Industrial Hotel Retail Office

GRAPH 3

Taiwan buyer profile in the commercial property market, 2008–Q1/2013

Local insurance company

44%

Overseas investor

6%

Technology industry

10%

Developer9%

Finance2%

Other23%

Pro investment institute

4%

Traditional industry

2%




TAbLE 4




(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Shin Kong Life Dunnan building

Da-an district, Taipei City Q1/2013 b3/F–2/F and

12/F 18,605 294 15,819 Cathay Life

Zurich building Songshan district, Taipei City Q1/2013 1/F–2/F 2,109 43 20,615 Herald Leader

Taipei Main Station Zhongzheng district, Taipei City Q4/2012 G/F 2,846 131 45,909 Shin Kong Life Insurance

Galaxy Department Square Zhongzheng district, Taipei City Q3/2012 Whole block 14,645 224 15,301 Fubon Life Insurance

Pacific Dunnan building Da-an district, Taipei City Q2/2012 Whole block 3,283 65 19,755 Fubon Life Insurance

"The limited supply of street shops (as well as the fact that they are rarely released) in prime business areas continued to attract investor interest,

Ricky HuangAssociate DirectorInvestment+886 2 8789 5828 ext [email protected]

especially individuals. After several recent transactions in early 2013, the prices of these prime street shops stood at more than NT$10 million per ping, with the price increasing by around 40% over the past two years."

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents 4.5% 4.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Prices 5.0% 8.3% 7.7% 7.1% 5.0% 5.0%

Cap rate* 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%

TAbLE 3

Taipei retail forecast, 2010–2015E

GRAPH 4

Rental ranges of Taipei's major retail areas, Q4/2012


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Xinyi district Zhongxiao East Road

Ximending Taipei Main station

Zhongshan North Road

US

$ p

er s

q m

per

mon

th

GRAPH 5

Taiwan retail sales, 2004–2012

Source: Ministry of Economics Affairs, Savills Research & Consultancy

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

NT$

(bill

ion)


GRAPH 6

Taiwan tourist arrivals, 2001–2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

No.

of v

isit

ors

(mill

ion)

Others Hong Kong and Macau Southeast Asia Japan China

Taiwan - Retail

Source: Taiwan Tourism bureau, Savills Research & Consultancy

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy *Cap rate refers to gross yield.



Viet Nam - Offices

"Demand for prime Grade A office buildings has increased strongly in recent months, especially well established

Dao Manh HungHead of Investment - Hanoi+84 4 3946 1300 ext [email protected]

assets with good lease profiles. With limited supply in the CBDs of the main cities, well located office buildings will continue to attract attention."

TAbLE 2


Source: Real Capital Analytics, Press releases


(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Centre Point PhuNhuan District, HCMC May 2013 Whole block 36,000 45 1,250 Mapletree

KumhoAsiana Plaza District 1, HCMC Jan 2013 Office component 31,562 45.1 (allocated) 1,429 Asiana Airlines

(inter-company transaction)

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents -3% -9% -7% -4% 8% 6%

Prices -4% 0% -25% -12% 19% 7%

Cap rate 10% 9% 11% 12% 11% 11%

TAbLE 1

HCMC Grades A and B office forecast, 2010–2015E


GRAPH 1

Viet Nam Grades A and B office new supply, take-up and vacancy, 2003–2016E


0

5

10

15

20

25

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

%

'000

sq

m

New supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS)

GRAPH 3

FDI in HCMC, 2008–Q1/2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

Pro

jects

US

$ (m

illio

n)

Registered FDI No. of projects


GRAPH 2

GDP and growth in HCMC, 2008–Q1/2013


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

YoY

(%)

US

$ (b

illio

n)

GDP, current price (LHS) Growth rate (RHS)



Viet Nam - Retail

"Favourable demographics are still the main factor maintaining the interest of international retailers in Viet

Su Ngoc KhuongAssociate Director - Investment HCMC+84 8 3823 [email protected]

Nam, despite the slowing retail sales growth. Shopping centres in prime or strategic locations still attract tenants and therefore remain the target of many retail investors."

TAbLE 4


Source: Real Capital Analytics, Press releases


(sq m)US$

(million)US$

per sq m Buyer

Vincom Center A District 1, HCMC Feb 2013 Retail component 39,454 354 (allocated) 8,972 VIPD Group

Kumho Link District 1, HCMC Jan 2013 Retail component 6,880 5.3 (allocated) 770 Asiana Airlines

(inter-company transaction)

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E

Rents -5% -18% 6% 0% 0% 0%

Prices -5% -2% 6% 11% 13% 0%

Cap rate 12% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8%

TAbLE 3

HCMC retail forecast, 2010–2015E

GRAPH 4

Viet Nam retail new supply, take-up and vacancy, 2009–2016E

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

%

'000

sq

m

New supply (LHS) Take-up (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS)

GRAPH 6

International visitor volume to HCMC, 2008–Q1/2013

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

YoY

(%)

US

$ (b

illio

n)

International visitors (LHS) Growth rate (RHS)


GRAPH 5

Retail turnover in HCMC, 2008–Q1/2013


0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1/2013

YoY

(%)

US

$ (b

illio

n)

Retail turnover, current price (LHS) Real growth rate (RHS)

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy *Data refers to supply of three retail sectors: Shopping centres, department stores and retail podiums.


Savills Real Estate Capital Markets Asia Pacific

Regional Head, Capital Markets Frank Marriott E: [email protected] T: +852 2842 447523/F, Two Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong

Regional Research and ConsultancySimon SmithE: [email protected]: +852 2842 457323/F, Two Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong

New Zealand Doug Osborne Email: [email protected] Paddy Callesen E: [email protected] T: +64 9 951 5910 / +64 9 951 5911 Level 8, 33 Shortland Street, Auckland,

NZ 1010, New Zealand

North America Robert Stamm

E: [email protected]

T: +1 949 679 9090

18500 Von Karman, Suite 530, Irvine

CA 92612 United States

Europe Borja Sierra


T: +44 020 7409 9937

20 Grosvenor Hill, London W1K 3HQ,

United Kingdom

United Kingdom Rasheed Hassan


T: +44 020 7409 8836

20 Grosvenor Hill, London W1K 3HQ,

United Kingdom

Offices throughout the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden Associate offices in Austria, Greece, Norway,

Portugal, Russia, Turkey and South Africa

ASIA

China Raymond Lee E: [email protected] T: +852 2842 4518

Albert Lau E: [email protected] T: +8621 6391 6696 20/F, Shanghai Central Plaza, 381 Huai Hai Middle Road, Luwan District, Shanghai 200020, PRC

Grant Ji E: [email protected] T: +8610 5925 2088 Unit 1, 21/F, East Tower, Twin Towers, B-12 Jiangquomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang, Beijing 100022, PRC

With offices in Chengdu, Chongqing, Dalian, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Qingdao, Shenyang, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Xiamen and Zhuhai

Hong Kong SAR Raymond Lee E: [email protected] T: +852 2842 4518 23/F, Two Exchange Square, Central, Hong Kong

With offices in Tsim Sha Tsui and Kowloon Tong

Macau SAR Franco Liu E: [email protected] T: +853 2878 0623 Suite 1309-10, Macau Landmark, 555 Avenida da Amizade, Macau

Japan Christian Mancini E: [email protected] T: +813 5562 1717 CR Kamiyacho Building 10F, 1-11-9 Azabudai, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-0041, Japan

Korea Kyoungdon Jeon E: [email protected] T: +822 2124 4101 11/F, Seoul Finance Center, 84 Taepyungro-1-ga, Chung-gu, Seoul 100-768, Korea

Malaysia Savills Rahim & Co Robert Ang E: [email protected] T: +60 3 2691 9907 Level 17, Menara Uni. Asia, 1008 Jalan Sultan Ismail, 50250 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

With 17 branches throughout Malaysia

Singapore Chris Marriott E: [email protected] T: +65 6415 7582 30 Cecil Street, #20-03 Prudential Tower, Singapore 049712

Taiwan Cynthia Chu E: [email protected] T: +886 2 8789 5828 17F-1, Exchange Square, 89 Sung Ren Road, Xin-Yi District, Taipei, Taiwan

Thailand Robert Collins E: [email protected] T: +66 2 636 0300 26/F, Abduirahim Place, 990 Rama IV Road, Bangkok 10500, Thailand

Viet Nam Neil MacGregor E: [email protected] T: +84 8 3823 4754 18/F, Fideco Tower, 81-85 Ham Nghi Street, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

With office in Ha Noi

AUSTRALASIA

Australia Simon Fenn E: [email protected] T: +61 2 8215 8830 Level 7, 50 Bridge Street, Sydney, Australia

Offices throughout Sydney, Parramatta, Liverpool, Canberra, Melbourne, Notting Hill, South East Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth,

Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast

This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change, and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract; interested parties should not rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of the agent or the agent’s principal has any authority to make any representations or warranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher, Savills. (III/12)

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