ashkan farrokhnia1 , saeed morid1 ... - texas a&m university · 3. 1. tarbiat modares...
TRANSCRIPT
Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on the drawdown of Lake Urmia (Iran)
using SWAT-LU
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Ashkan Farrokhnia1 , Saeed Morid1, Majid Delavar1 and Karim Abbaspour3
1. Tarbiat Modares University. Water Research Institute.2. Tarbiat Modares University.
3. Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag.
The 2017 SWAT Conference & Workshops 28 to 30 June, 2017
Warsaw, Poland
Ashkan Farrokhnia
Lake Urmia Basin
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1274.10
1266.0
1268.0
1270.0
1272.0
1274.0
1276.0
1278.0
1280.0
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wat
er el
evat
ion-
m
1966
1968
1970
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1974
1976
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1980
1982
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1986
1988
2000
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2004
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2009
2011
2013
1995
Persian Gulf
Total Area of 52000 km2
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Salt storm
Efforts to Restore Lake Urmia
An integrated plan to save the lake was drawn bystakeholders, which was facilitated by theUNDP/GEF/DOE Conservation of IranianWetlands Project (CIWP). With the cooperation ofthe LU provinces, the Integrated ManagementPlan for Lake Urmia Basin (IMPLUB) wasdeveloped. The plan helps provincial and nationalagencies address the current critical ecologicalstate of the lake, which is also required by the 4th
National Development Plan. The most importantagreement in this plan is to allocate 3100 MCM ofwater per year to the lake.
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Main questions for the lake restoration
• What are the causes for the lake’s drawdown?
• What is the water accounting of the basin?
• What can be the impacts of new agriculturalpolicies on restoration of lake?
• etc5
Conceptual framework for Integrated modeling of Lake Urmia Basin
Basin and field scale
model
Management Scenarios:
Changing irrigation system
Changing cropping pattern
New rule curves
...
New management questions?
Water accountingWA+
Outflows to Lake Urmia
Lake and rivers management:
Partial restoration of lake
Transferring the rivers
New rule curve
Hydrodynamic and water budget
models
Lake’s BasinLake’s Bed
Mike21SWAT-LU
Water Accounting WA+, Resource Report
Karim et al., 2013
The main advantages
Real Water Saving
Distinction between withdrawal and demolition
Realistic evaluation of technologies on water saving
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Dimensions of Lake Urmia
140 Km length 20-50 Km width
Maximum 20 meters depthAverage 6 meters depth
Urmia Lake water level variation
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Some the features added to SWAT for SWAT-LU
- Simulation of losses between the first and second boundaries
rtday.f
- Updating of wet/dry parts of the lake’s bed
urmia.f, simulate.f
- Evaporation from the lake as an hyper saline lake (ppm=400mg/lit)
- Change in the volume-area relation res.f
- Updating land use resetlu.f
- Irrigation efficiency irrsub.f ،irr_res.f ،irr_rch.f ،subbasin.f, gwmod.f
- Change in spatial estimation of rainfall and temperature
snom.f ،clicon.f و readsub.f
The question of the present presenation
• What are the causes for the lake’s drawdown?• i.e. role of humand activites and climate
variability?
• How is the water accounting of the basin?
• What can be the impacts of new agriculturalpolicies on restoration of lake?
• etc 12
Simulation Framework to distinguish human activities and climate variability impacts on Lake Urmia drawdown
• 1st attempt) Running SWAT-LU using recorded temperature and rainfall data and updating land use
• 2nd attempt) Running SWAT-LU using fixed historical land use (1988) and recorded temperature and rainfall data
• 3rd attempt) Running SWAT-LU using de-terended temperature and rainfall data and updating land use
• 1st Run – 2nd Run = Human Impact• 1st Run – 3rd Run = Climate variability Impact
Simulation Framework to distinguish human activities and climate variability impacts on Lake Urmia drawdown
∆𝑉𝑉𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇=∆𝑉𝑉𝐶𝐶𝑇𝑇𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑙𝑙 + ∆𝑉𝑉𝐻𝐻𝑢𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑇𝑇𝑢𝑢 + ∆𝑉𝑉(𝐶𝐶𝑇𝑇𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑙𝑙,𝐻𝐻𝑢𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑇𝑇𝑢𝑢)
• Modeling Set up, calibration and validation
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کاربری اراضی 1987
Producing Land Use Map the basin 1988 and 2007, Landsat images
20071988
Rainfed
Irrigated lands
OrchardsRainfed 19%Irrigated lands 10%Orchards 270%
Major data/information and discretization of the basin and HRUs
112 subbasins 3114 HRUs
- DEM (30 meter)- Soil map (FAO)- 51 discharge stations- 11 Temp. gauging stations- 25 Rain gauge stations - Cal. and val. period 1986 to 2009- SWAT-CUP with parallel processing module
- 4 major crops and respected managements
- 6 major dams
Irrigation networks
Dams
Lake’s basimetry
Calibration/validation of river flows
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0
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600
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
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1995
1996
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2007
2008
2009
Q (c
ms)
‹ w⁄ ü$‚w⁄#
‹ wŒ∙ z ö•$ô‡ù „flÍùü#
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
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1995
1996
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2001
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Q (c
ms)
‹ w⁄ ü$‚w⁄#
ùwÎfi‡$Ëwè Èãj#
R2 and Nash aregreater than 0.7 inthe main stations
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-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
‘ôw
æ⁄ x
j ª
w∆Éù
v$
mm
#
‹ w⁄ ü$‚w⁄#
GRACESWAT-LU
Calibration/validation of actual evapotranspiration and change in groundwater
GW : GRACE satellite VS SWAT-LU
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
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800
900
ûÎò{
É-
«ûæ
É$
mm
#
x j È◊⁄ öfl• ‘ ö⁄SWAT-LU
0
100
200
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400
500
600
700
800
900
ûÎò{
É-
«ûæ
É$
mm
#
x j È◊⁄ öfl• ‘ ö⁄SWAT-LU
0
100
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500
600
700
800
900
1000
ÿöfl“ y Ε „åfi∙ Í „ã∙“
ûÎò{
É-
«ûæ
É$
mm
#
‘ ∙ Æî ⁄
x j È◊⁄ öfl• ‘ ö⁄SWAT-LU
میاندوآب
ارومیھ
تبریز
Wheat Applet Alfalfa Tomato
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
„èwÍù
ô Ÿåì
$y
æœ⁄û
Ñ⁄ ôù
wÎ◊Î⁄
#
‹ w⁄ ü$‚w⁄#
Ëv ‚ö‰w™⁄Ëüw• „Î{©
Validation Calibration
R2=0.99 NS=0.98 R2=0.99 NS=0.99
Calibration/validation of Lake Urmia’s level using SWAT-LU
کاربری اراضی 1987
1988
Producing Land Use Map the basin 1988 and 2007
2007
Rainfed
Irrigated lands
Orchards
Land use change including construction of the dams representing the role human activities of the basin
1988
کاربری اراضی 1987
2007
Dams
Trend analysis of temperature
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Significant positive trend
1980-2009Mann-KendalSpearman
Positive trend but not significant
#
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Trend analysis of rainfall
Significant negative trend
Negative trend but not significant
#
1980-2009Mann-KendalSpearman
No trend#
Deternded time series of temperature and rainfall after the lake’s drawdown (1995 onward)
• Problem: Getting different time series using different deternding methods (linear/average differences) and turning points (1995, 1998, 2002) 25
100
200
300
400
500
600
ßùwz
$m
m#
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Simulation of Lake Urmia’s level using different deterndig methods and turning points
Observed period Simulated period
?• 6 different simulated
time series with reset todeternding method andturning points
Lake Van vs Lake Urmia
• Van Lake• (Turkey)
• Urmia Lake• (Iran)
Lake Van’s level vs Lake Urmia level
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VanUrmia
R2= 0.81 before1996 R2= 0.41 after1996
Correlation between lake’slevels of Van and Urmiausing different methodsand turning points
R2 Turning point Deternding method
Data type Period
0.81 -- -- Observed 1966-1987
0.41 -- -- Observed 1988-2009
0.54 1996 Linear Simulated 1988-20090.17 1996 Average Simulated 1988-2009
0.41 1999 Linear Simulated 1988-2009
0.52 1999 Average Simulated 1988-2009
0.82 2002 Linear Simulated 1988-2009
0.76 2002 Average Simulated 1988-2009
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Simulation of Lake Urmia’s level using different deterndig methods
Recorded level
Simulated level withremoving climate andanthropogenic impacts
Observation Simulation
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Simulated inflows to Lake Urmia under different climate and anthropogenic impacts based on the average differences
deternding method and 2002 turning point
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Scenario
Simulation Sc.1988-20091999-2009
Land use
Climatedata
Inflows to lake
(BCM)
Change () comparing with base condition
(BCM)
Inflows to lake(BCM)
Change () comparing with base condition
(BCM)
Base)𝑄𝑄(𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼)𝐵𝐵(VariableObserved 4.01---2.11---
Rem. Human I. )𝑄𝑄(𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼)𝐻𝐻(
1987 fixedObserved 4.68-0.67
(%49.3)3.10-0.99(%41.8)
Rem. Climate I.)𝑄𝑄(𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼)𝐶𝐶(VariableDeternded 4.600.59
(%43.4)3.30-19.1(%50.2)
Rem. both)𝑄𝑄(𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼)(
1987 fixed
Deternded 5.37-1.36(%100)4.48-2.37
(%100)
Interaction of human & Climae)𝑄𝑄(𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼)𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐻𝐻(---0.10-
(%7.3)----0.19(%8.0)
Relative impacts of anthropogenic and climate variability impacts on Lake Urmia drawdown
Conclusion and remarks
• The results showed that inspite of many subjective analysesthat introduce human activities (miss management as themain resean for the drawdown of hLake Urmia; climateviability of the basin has also seriously had affected the lake.
• Having in mind the finding, face us with a new hot questionwhich is:
• Can be bring back the lake to its historical level or it isessential to accept this reality and work on partial restorationof the lake. As it was also considered in restoration of AralSea (Central Asia) and Mono lake (California).
• SWAT-LU can be accounted as a suitable tool for supportingthe related policies and decisions to restore the lake. 33
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