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Page 1: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield
Page 2: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

ASF WELCOME

Chris GreenAustralian Securitisation Forum

Page 3: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

PANEL SESSION

The future of the lending market in Australia, including new business models and disruptors

Moderator:Sarah HofmanRBS Australia

Page 4: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

KEYNOTE ADDRESS

Market conduct – regulatory thinking on responsible lending and interest-rate benchmarks

Cathie Armour Australian Securities and Investments Commission

Page 5: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

PANEL SESSION

Australian housing market fundamentals and the ‘bubble’ debate

Moderator:Robert Camilleri Realm Investment House

Page 6: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Bubble or Bubble like

Page 7: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

WARREN HOGAN’S PRESENTATION

IT IS IN 4:3 FORMAT

Page 8: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield
Page 9: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Q&A

Nikki Patel State Street Bank and Trust (UK)

Page 10: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Q&A

Hiroyuki KasamaMizuho Bank (Japan)

Page 11: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

PRESENTATION

Neil Calder European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (UK)

Page 12: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

INTRODUCTORY PRESENTATION

Global developments and credit update

Vera Chaplin Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services

Page 13: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2014by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

Global Developments & Credit Update

Vera Chaplin – Managing DirectorAsia Pacific Structured Finance Ratings

November 2015

Page 14: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Securitisation – Slow Growth and Untapped Market Potential

14

• Global issuance to be affected by credit growth, funding conditions and untapped market potential

• U.S. expects moderate growth with economic recovery;• Europe expects growth with softening policymakers’ stance on securitisation; • Australia is steady, Japan is slowing, Korea is strengthening, other parts of Asia are sporadic

and China has re-emerged with record issuance; and• Recovering markets, untapped markets and new asset classes are areas of potential growth

• Performance is generally stable across the globe

• Yield search continues with investor interest in nontraditional asset classes

• Policymakers’ stance on securitisation is likely to influence future investment and issuance decisions

Page 15: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

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U.S. Issuance: We Expect A Small Increase (US$B)2014 2015 YTD 2015F 2016F 2016F (%)

ABS 206 175 204 227 42%Auto-related 96 94 102 110 20%Cards 47 25 40 50 9%Student loan 16 12 15 15 3%Equipment/fleet 16 16 16 17 3%

Other ABS (including nontraditional) 31 29 31 35 7%

CLO 124 86 100 90 17%CMBS 94 87 110 150 28%SASB/LL 29 28 40 40 7%

RMBS 38 44 60 70 13%Total $462 $391 $474 $537 100%Sources: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.

Slow economic recovery indicate small increase in issuance volumes with 2007 CMBS peak open up to prepayment and support issuance. CLO expect decline due to impact from upcoming risk-retention rules.

Page 16: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

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US Issuance: Growing With Untapped Market Potential

Reference: Structured Finance Is Poised To Enter 2016 With Robust Issuance, But Some Securitization Potential Remains Untapped, September 10, 2015

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F

(US$ bil)U.S. Structured Finance Issuance (Excluding RMBS)

Auto-related Credit card Student loans Equipment/fleet Other ABS CLO CMBS

Copyright Standard & Poor's 2015

$537

Page 17: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

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US Issuance: Proportion of Credit Securitised Is Falling

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%(USD bil. $)

Credit Volume (bars) vs Proportion Securitised (lines)Auto-loans Credit cards Student loans Commercial mortgages

Residential mortgages % auto-loan securitised % credit card securitised % studient loans securitised

% commercial loans securitised % Nonagency resi Securitisation % agency & GSE resi securitisation

Source: Federal Reserve Z Report, Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Page 18: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

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US Issuance: Auto-related ABS Reflect Underlying Sales Activities and Funding Needs

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1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F

US Auto sales vs Auto-related ABSUS Auto sales Auto ABS

Data source: article titled "Structured Finance Is Poised To Enter 2016 With Robust Issuance, But Some Securitization Potential Remains Untapped", Sept 10, 2015. Note: auto sales is data as at May 2015, auto related ABS for the full year is forecast by Standard & Poor’s.

Page 19: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Nontraditional ABS Enquiries Are Rising

19

Type of assets (one third international assets):

Whole of business securitization, e.g. $2.5 billion of Dunkin’s and Wendy’s each and there are refinance needs coming up, international assets such as Domino’s;

Market place lending – P2P;

Solar power, Small business loans similar to CAN Capital, Transportation related e.g aircraft leases, railcars, container leases, exposure to oil; and

Trade Finance – banks looking to the capital markets for growing funding gap.

Pricing and liquidity:

• When pricing, investors do not compare exposure to ABS only but also to corporate exposures;

• Lack of comparable due to different issuers coming to market each year;

• Priced higher when the product is new and the margin gets compressed as more of them come to market; and

• Several deals’ subordinated tranches are oversubscribed with senior tranches taking time to fill;

Potential risk: Stability of the concept, historical performance, closure of business, stress testing and concentration.

Page 20: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

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European Issuance (€ Bil): Increasing From A Lower Base 2014 2015 YTD 2015F 2016F

ABS 25 21 34 43Auto-related 17 12 19 23Cards 3 3 5 7SME 2 2 4 6Other 3 4 6 7

CLO/CDO 15 9 17 20CMBS 4 4 6 7RMBS 25 19 34 42Other Sectors 4 1 1 1Total 73 54 92 113

Sources: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, J.P. Morgan, Informa, Bloomberg.

October Investor-placed European securitization issuance was €4.4bn (3 RMBS (UK, Dutch, and Belgian), 2 CLOs, one German auto ABS, and one Finnish auto loan ABS.

Page 21: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

European Issuance: We Expect Strong Growth

21

• Investor-placed European securitization issuance reached USD$61 billion, up 6% compared to the same period in 2014 (up 33% in Euro).

• Covered bonds reached USD$97 billion, up 7% (up 22% in Euro).

• Increased diversity – e.g. Spanish RMBS issuance for the first time in many years.

• European Central Bank’s purchase program seem to have influenced both securitisation and covered bond programs. ECB bought Euro 110 billion of covered bond, and Euro 11 billon of ABS.

• UK RMBS, which is not eligible for ECB purchase program, has held the highest issuance volume in the sector.

• Credit performance have stabilised reflecting a slow improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop for many countries in the region and are reflected in positive rating trend.

• European policymakers are likely to soften their stance on securitisation across a variety of regulations for example the including some ABS as high-quality liquid assets under Basel III bank liquidity rule, and potentially lower capital charges requirement for securitisation exposures deemed to be “simple, transparent and standardised”.

• Our 2016 forecast for European investor-placed securitisation is between USD 110 billion to 140 billion, up 20% over our 2015 expectation

Page 22: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

• Asian exposure offers diversification and yield for some investors;• China – Surprises all with about USD 50bn issuance although mainly domestic issuance;• Australia – Dominated by housing loan funding diversification requirements (RMBS and CB expect

to exceed USD 40bn);• Japan – Lower issuance in recent years;• South Korea – 20151H totaled KRW20.3 trn (about USD18bn) up 159.9%, much due to a 391.98%

y-on-y increase in KHFC’s RMBS. Over KRW 20trn is issued again in Q32015 (according to Financial Supervisory Service’s Q3 report on issuance of ABS. Kookmin bank issued its first covered bond under the updated Korean covered bond legal framework; and

• Singapore – Covered Bonds issued by DBS and UOB

22

Asia Issuance: Mostly Domestic Issuance

Page 23: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Primary asset sectors: CBRC/PBOC scheme: CLO, Auto ABS,

RMBS, consumer receivables; CSRC: lease-backed, infrastructure

fees securitization, micro-loans financing;

Smaller originators such as city banks, agricultural banks, and foreign banks increased their issuance of CLO transactions in China; and

The first transaction with revolving collateral (dynamic pool) was launched.

China Issuance: Rapidly Developing

23

Note: *January to June

Source: Chinabond, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and sellers' announcement. Compiled by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.

Page 24: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

China’s Growing Consumer Credits Yet To Be Tapped

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5,000,000

10,000,000

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25,000,000

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

New Passenger Car Sales in Chinacar sales ( RMB) Y-on-Y growth (%)

Note: 2015 data is year to August.

Page 25: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

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Originator Volume (RMB mil) Issuance yearSAIC-GMAC Automotive Finance Co. Ltd. 1901 2008SAIC-GMAC Automotive Finance Co. Ltd. 2000 2012China Merchants Bank 8100 2014Dongfeng Nissan Finance Co. Ltd. 800 2014Toyota Motor Finance (China) Co. Ltd. 800 2014Ford Automotive Finance (China) Co. Ltd. 835 2014BMW Automotive Finance (China) Co. Ltd. 800 2014

Volkswagen Finance (China) Co. Ltd. 800 2014GAC-SOFINCO Automobile Finance Co. Ltd. 800 2014SAIC-GMAC Automotive Finance Co. Ltd. 3000 2014Ford Automotive Finance (China) Co. Ltd. 3000 2015China Merchants Bank 10547 2015Volkswagen Finance (China) Co. Ltd. 1900 2015Ping An Bank Co. Ltd. 3147 2015BMW Automotive Finance (China) Co. Ltd. 2569 2015SAIC-GMAC Automotive Finance Co. Ltd. 4000 2015SAIC-GMAC Automotive Finance Co. Ltd. 3000 2015Dongfeng Nissan Finance Co. Ltd. 1500 2015

Source: Chinabond and sellers' announcements. Compiled by Standard & Poor’s

Auto-ABS in China Attracts International Investor Interest

Page 26: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Australia Issuance: RMBS Dominates

26

New RMBS issuance was slightly more than $AUD14.2 billion as at Q2 2015 compared with $AUD14.3 billion at the same time lastyear. The issuance volume has now exceeded A$20 billion. Covered bond issuance reached $15billion.

Spreads have widened, which followed similar development in banks’ unsecured debt issuance

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10,000

20,000

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40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Amount(Mil.A$)Standard & Poor's Ratings Services Rated New Issuance (Domestic/Euro/Global)

Domestic Euro Global

Source: Standard & Poor's

Page 27: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Proportion of Australian Mortgage Securitized Has Declined

27

0

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400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

Mar

-02

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-03

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Percentage of Australian Residential Mortgage Securitised

Total residential loans mortgages outstanding % securitised

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue number 5609 table 12.

AUD Mil

Page 28: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

28

Standard & Poor’s Japanese Rated IssuanceTotal Amount Of Rated Structured New Issues in Japan(Mil. ¥) 1H 2015 2H 2014 1H 2014 2H 2013 1H 2013

ABS* 95,000 46,300 63,895 66,433 162,635

Structured credit§ - - - - -

RMBS 889,300 702,500 820,100 933,600 882,400

CMBS - - - - -

J-REITs 7,000 9,000 19,500 17,500 12,000

Total 991,300 757,800 903,495 1,017,533 1,057,035

Total no. of transactions 11 13 14 16 18

Reference article: Rated New Issuance In Japan's Securitization Market Totaled ¥990 Billion In First-Half 2015, Up 9.7%

Page 29: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Copyright © 2015 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES,INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

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Standard & Poor’s (Australia) Pty. Ltd. holds Australian financial services license number 337565 under the Corporations Act 2001. Standard & Poor’s credit ratings and related research are not intended for and must not be distributed to any person in Australia other than a wholesale client (as defined in Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act).

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Page 30: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

PANEL SESSION

Securitisation insights from around the world

Moderator:Vera Chaplin Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services

Page 31: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

LAUREL DAVIS PRESENTATION IS PDF

Page 32: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

U.S. Regulatory Update

Australian Securitisation Forum – Global Perspectives

November 30, 2015

Page 33: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

AGENDA

1. U.S. ABS Market Update2. U.S. Regulatory Hot Topics3. Regulation AB II4. High Quality Securitization5. Derivatives6. U.S. Mortgage Market Update

Page 34: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Overall ABS Issuance Was $225B for 2014

U.S. Consumer ABS Volume and Market Issuance Analysis

Source: Credit Suisse

Page 35: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

U.S. Regulatory Hot Topics

Regulation AB II HQS Derivatives U.S. Mortgages

• SEC finalized Reg AB II in November 2014

• Requires extensive new asset-level disclosure for certain asset classes

• SFIG developing comment letter on open items, such as potential applicability of rules to the 144A market

• Swaps margin rules first proposed by the CFTC in 2011

• Prudential regulators proposed margin rules in 2014

• Prudential regulators finalized margin rules for uncleared swaps in October 2015

• SFIG has submitted two comment letters proposing exemption for SPV-related swaps to post margin for uncleared swaps

• European proposals on HQS, STS, STC have been put forth beginning in 2012

• European Commission proposed legislation in September 2015

• SFIG has commented on HQS proposals and met with Members of Congress, prudential regulators, and SEC

• Risk retention rules go into effect for RMBS as of the end of 2015

• SFIG working with Treasury and investor community on implementing Deal Agent in RMBS

• The debate continues over how to comply with Regulation AB II without disclosing personally identifiable information

• GSEs have expanded available credit by lowering down payment requirements, GSE dominance continues

Page 36: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Regulation AB II

Asset-level Data Disclosure─ Final Regulation AB II Rule includes extensive new asset-level data disclosure and reporting requirements for certain asset

classes:

─ RMBS, CMBS, Auto Loan/Lease, Re-securitizations of RMBS/CMBS/Auto ABS, and Debt Securities

─ Data is required both at the time of offering and on an ongoing basis (part of 10-D filings) - will be publicly available and posted on EDGAR

─ For each asset class for which data is required there is a single Schedule AL which will be used both for the prospectus and ongoing reporting

New Requirements For Shelf Eligibility─ Replaces the prior investment grade requirement for ABS shelf eligibility with new transaction requirements, including,

among others:

─ CEO certification as of the date of the final prospectus─ Appointment of asset representations reviewer who will review assets for compliance with representations and

warranties following triggering of a delinquency threshold─ Dispute resolution provisions under which if repurchase demands are not resolved after 180 days, the party making

the demand may refer the dispute to either mediation or third-party arbitration─ Investor communication provisions under which the party responsible for the distribution date Form 10-D filings

must include in the report any request from an investor to communicate with other investors

SEC Proposals that Remain Outstanding─ Asset-level requirements for other asset types (Equipment Loan/Lease, Student Loans, Floorplan financing)

─ Require group account disclosure for credit card ABS

─ Require same disclosure and reporting for the 144A market as for registered offerings

─ Requirement to prepare and file a computer “waterfall” model

─ Require filing of final transaction documents with the Rule 424(h) preliminary prospectus

Page 37: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

• These European entities are driving HQS:

─ European Commission (“EC”), European Central Bank (“ECB”), European Banking Authority(“EBA”), and Bank of England (“BoE”). The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (“BCBS”)and International Organization of Securities Commissions (“IOSCO”) have also addressed HQS

• Perhaps most notable in the European proposed legislation:

─ Reduction in bank capital requirements for banks investing in STS securities

─ Potential amendment of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio so that it, too, accounts for STS securities

• Impact for U.S. participants:

─ Unlevel playing field for US banks investing in ABS/MBS

─ Increased difficulty for US issuers looking to access the European markets

• We risk landing with a disconnected global regulatory framework – which runs counter to the notion of global harmonization

• We see two possible scenarios:

− We could have EU going in one direction (likely the furthest in terms of an STC/STS framework), Basel in a slightly different direction (and likely aligned with Asia, AUS, and Canada), and then U.S. on its own; OR

− EU and Basel align, everyone follows suit except US, again leaving US with an overly punitive capital and liquidity framework

High Quality Securitisation

Page 38: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

• April 2011: − CFTC issues proposed rule on margin

requirements for uncleared swaps• September 3, 2014:

− Prudential Regulators propose margin and capital requirements for CSEs

• September 23, 2014: − CFTC re-propose rules (originally

proposed in 2011)• October 2015:

− All prudential regulators finalized the rules

Derivatives

REGULATORY ACTIVITY • April 21, 2014

− SFIG has call with regulators• June 27, 2014:

− SFIG submits comment letter to Prudential Regulators and CFTC requesting treatment of ABS issuers as “low-risk financial end users”

• November 27, 2014:− SFIG submits comment letter to

Prudential Regulators and CFTC proposing exemption for ABS issuers

SFIG ADVOCACY

• The Prudential Regulators (together the OCC, Federal Reserve, FDIC, Farm Credit Administration, and FHFA) have finalized swap margin rules going into effect in 2016.─ The CFTC has not yet finalized its parallel proposed rule

• These rules would require swap participants to post margin on these uncleared swaps for fluctuations in swap market values

• Adoption of these rules would impact the financing activities of consumer lenders who extend credit in major asset classes, such as credit cards, auto loans and auto leases

Page 39: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

• Issues Impacting Supply:

– Regulatory overhang – servicing standards, ATR, GSE put-backs, CPFB– GSE dominance – low funding cost, easy access for sellers/issuers, loan

balances, low G-fee– Bank balance sheet capacity

• Issues Impacting Demand:

– No alignment of interests – absence of third-party oversight (deal manager)– Investor distrust – outstanding litigation, failure to accept liability, ongoing

settlements– Lack of standardized documentation – reps and warrants, data disclosure

and reporting– Regulatory Overhang – Volcker Rules, State vs Federal Interests (Madden)

U.S. Mortgage Market Update - PLS Supply and Demand Dynamics

Page 40: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

U.S. Mortgage Market Update - Changing PLS Supply and Demand Dynamics

• Changing the supply side of the equation:i) Incentivize issuance away from the GSEs, lessen GSE market dominance –

− Ease credit expansion− Reduce loan balance limits− Raise G-fees

ii) Harmonize FHFA, Legislature and Administration goals, they seem at cross purposes –− Administration and Legislature have prioritized infusion of private capital into

the GSEs while FHFA has not, beyond CRTs− FHFA recently lowered LTV requirements to 3%, expanding GSE reach− Legislature is trying to legislate GSE unwind− Treasury initiatives are focused on PLS, seemingly ignoring GSE mandate and

size issues

• Changing the demand side of the equation:i) Restore investor trust -

− Enhance third-party oversight− Standardize Reps and Warrants− Clarify Roles and Responsibilities− Enhance bondholder communication

ii) Reduce regulatory and legal overhang –− Regulation AB II− Settlements− Other – Basel III, HAMP, Madden

Page 41: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

SIGNING CEREMONY

ASF SLIDE IS IN 4:3 FORMAT

Page 42: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield
Page 43: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield
Page 44: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

KEYNOTE ADDRESS

APRA: The future prudential direction of securitisation

Patrick Brennan Australian Prudential Regulation Authority

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PANEL SESSION

APRA rapid reaction

Moderator:Jennifer Schlosser Ashurst

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PANEL SESSION

Accessing and using data in the investment and analysis process

Moderator:Mary Ploughman RESIMAC

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KEYNOTE ADDRESS

Siobhan Hayden Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia

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Page 49: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

KEYNOTE ADDRESS

Greg MedcraftInternational Organization of Securities Commissions and Australian Securities and Investments Commission

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PANEL SESSION

What’s keeping the buy side awake at night?

Moderator:Michael MoloneyWestpac Institutional Bank

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Capital city dwelling prices to slow down

-20-1001020304050

-20-10

01020304050

Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17

%%Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth

Sources: ABS, CoreLogic RP Data, APM, Residex, Westpac Economics

* all dwellings, composite of all measures, annualised, seasonally adjusted

6mth growth rates, annualised

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Investors Loans: Growth Ceiling

05101520253035

05

101520253035

May-92 May-96 May-00 May-04 May-08 May-12 May-16

ann%ann%

Sources: ABS, Westpac Economics

APRA guideline

Banks

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Page 53: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Australian GDP growth outlook

% annual 2015 2016 2017

RBA, Nov 3.00 3.50

RBA, Feb ( CUT ) 2.75 3.25

RBA, May ( CUT) 2.50 3.25

RBA, August 2.50 3.00 3.75

RBA, November 2.25 3.00 3.50Source: ABS, RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, Westpac Economics

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Page 54: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Current Forecasts – November 2015

Latest Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Dec 17

RBA Cash 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.50

Aus 10yr 2.90 3.20 3.40 4.25 5.00

3yr swap 2.20 2.40 2.60 3.50 4.25

Fed Funds 0.125 0.375 1.125 1.20 2.00

US 10yr 2.30 2.50 2.80 3.25 4.00

AUD/USD 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.68 0.72

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Page 55: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

Credit Spreads: 12 Month History

50

70

90

110

130

150

50

70

90

110

130

150

Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15

bpbpSenior Bank 5yr FRN TMAus iTraxx 5yrRMBS 3yr WAL TM

Source: Westpac

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RMBS Pricing - Credit Fan• Amongst other AAA issuance, RMBS is the highest yielding asset class.

Credit Spreads

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15

bpsbpsSenior Bank 5yrCovered 2023 MaturityRMBS 3yr WALAAA Semi 5yrAA Semi 5yrIBRD 5yrEIB 5yr

Source: Westpac

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RMBS Mezzanine and Subordinated Note Pricing

• Following changes to the treatment of lenders mortgage insurance in RMBS, transactions are now tranched the whole way down the capital structure and include an unrated subordinated note.

• Recent issues have shown that pricing of this subordinated unrated piece is determined by the proportion of mortgage insurance in the transactions.

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Investor v Owner Occupied• Investor lending has been a hot topic in the Australian property market recently, with the regulator imposing a 10% speed

limit on growth. This has seen many organisations recast regulatory reporting numbers for investor loans which in some cases have been included in RMBS transactions.

• Despite moves to limit investor lending growth, from an arrears perspective investor loans within RMBS transactions have performed better than owner occupied lending in recent history.

• S&P has cited that from a credit perspective, investors are generally well placed to service their debt because most investorhouseholds are often in higher income quintiles. Though S&P has noted that performance might diverge during a more severe economic downturn.

Investor Versus Owner-Occupied Arrears

Source: S&P, RBA

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DisclaimerThis presentation is provided to you solely for your own use and in your capacity as a wholesale client of Westpac Institutional Bank, a division of Westpac Banking Corporation (ABN 33 007 457 141) (AFSL 233 714) (“Westpac”). Westpac expressly prohibits you from passing on this presentation to any third party. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United States (“US”), Canada or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the US or Canada, or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. The distribution of this presentation in jurisdictions outside Australia may be restricted by law. Potential investors in such jurisdictions who come into possession of this presentation should seek advice on and observe any such restrictions. By accepting this presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing. Any failure to comply with such restrictions may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws.

Westpac Banking Corporation is authorised and regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority and is registered at Cardiff in the United Kingdom as Branch No. BR 106. The information contained in this document (“Information”) is intended for “market counterparties” and “intermediate customers”, as defined by the rules of the Financial Services Authority and is not intended for “private customers”.

The Information: does not constitute an offer, proposal, invitation or a solicitation of an offer, to subscribe for or purchase any securities or other financial product or instrument; does not constitute an offer, inducement or solicitation to enter a legally binding contract; and is not to be construed as an indication or prediction of future results. The Information is general and preliminary information only and while Westpac has made every effort to ensure that Information is free from error, Westpac does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Information. Westpac has no authority whatsoever to give any information or make any representation or warranty on behalf of any other person. In particular, the opinions, estimates and projections expressed in it are entirely those of the authors and are not given as an agent of any other person. The Information may contain material provided directly by third parties and while such material is published with necessary permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. In preparing the Information, Westpac has not taken into consideration the financial situation, investment objectives or particular needs of any particular investor and recommends that investors seek independent advice before acting on the Information. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities or other financial products or instruments must be made solely on the basis of the information contained in any prospectus, product disclosure statement or other offering circular issued by the issuer in connection with the relevant securities or financial products or instruments.

Certain types of transactions, including those involving futures, options and high yield securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the Information. The Information is subject to change without notice.

Westpac and its directors, officers, employees or associates may have interests in the securities or financial products or instruments referred to in this report. Westpac may receive fees and other benefits and advantages, either directly or indirectly, from transactions associated with the securities or financial products or instruments referred to in this presentation. Westpac may have acted as an investment banker or may have provided advice and investment services to the entities referred to in this presentation or in relation to the investments or products mentioned in this presentation.

An investment in the securities or other financial products or instruments in this presentation is not an investment in, deposit with or any other liability of Westpac. It is subject to investment risk, including loss of income and principal invested. Westpac does not stand behind or otherwise guarantee the capital value of investment performance of the securities or other financial products or instruments referred to in this presentation.

This presentation does not constitute an offer of securities in the US or to any US Person as defined in Regulation S under the Securities Act 1933 of the US (“US Securities Act”). The securities or other financial products or instruments described in this presentation have not been, and will not be, registered under the US Securities Act and may not be offered or sold in the US or to, or for the account of, any US Person except in a transaction that is exempt from the registration requirements of the US Securities Act and applicable US state securities laws.

Page 60: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield
Page 61: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

PANEL SESSION

M&A activity and how it will shape future issuance patterns

Moderator:Jacqueline Fox National Australia Bank

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ISSUER Q&A

Pepper Group – from start-up to ASX listing

Interviewer:Robert VerlanderCommonwealth Bank of Australia

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ISSUER Q&A

Local Government Funding Vehicle – a securitisation hybrid

Interviewer:Sophie GilderCommonwealth Bank of Australia

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PANEL SESSION

Broadening the appeal of securitisation beyond the mortgage sector

Moderator:Simon O’ConnellWestpac Institutional Bank (New Zealand)

Page 66: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

CASE STUDY

FleetPartners – challenges and opportunities through the lens of a key issuer

Interviewer:Gary Sly ANZ

Page 67: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

CLOSING PANEL SESSION

What the industry is watching for in 2016

Moderator:Laurence DavisonKangaNews

Page 68: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield

ASF THANKS AND CLOSE

Chris Dalton Australian Securitisation Forum

Page 69: ASF WELCOME Chris Green Australian Securitisation … Conference/2015... · Australian Securitisation Forum. ... Trade Finance ... • Asian exposure offers diversification and yield