ascendere associates llc innovative long/short equity research · 2017-02-01 · information...

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 1 January 31, 2017 Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research Model Portfolio Monthly Update: January 31, 2017 There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report. We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC: Relative Value Operating Momentum Analyst Revision Momentum Fundamental Quality Pages 2-9 contain brief commentary and highlights of a few stocks that seem particularly attractive. Page 10 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio. Page 11 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio. Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.

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Page 1: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 1 January 31, 2017

Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research

Model Portfolio Monthly Update: January 31, 2017 There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report. We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:

• Relative Value • Operating Momentum • Analyst Revision Momentum • Fundamental Quality

Pages 2-9 contain brief commentary and highlights of a few stocks that seem particularly attractive. Page 10 contains rebalancing actions for our long-only model portfolio. Page 11 contains rebalancing actions for our short-only model portfolio. Target and stop prices, as well as updated return data, to be provided in our daily reports that will follow.

Page 2: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 2 January 31, 2017

Notes: Readers that would like to follow our daily price target changes can follow us on our Seeking Alpha instablog or on Tumblr. This report is a follow-up to our January 31, 2017 abbreviated report and last month’s full report.

Commentary The theoretical Core Long Model increased +2.83% in January 2017 versus a +1.79% increase in the S&P 500. Stocks in the theoretical Core Short Model increased by +2.91% for the equivalent inverse short sale loss of -2.91%. The Core Long/Short Model declined by -0.08% for the month (+2.83% -2.91% = -0.08%). The theoretical Opportunistic Long Model also increased +2.83% for the month. Stocks in the theoretical Opportunistic Short Model increased +5.56% through January 4, 2017 and were assumed to have been replaced with 100% cash just prior to the close that day. (Both the theoretical “Core” and “Opportunistic” portfolios use the same basket of stocks but the Opportunistic model moves to 70% and 100% cash allocations during periods of high volatility or when portfolio return targets are met.) The best model and worst portfolio stocks for January 2017 The best performing stock in the theoretical long model was MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) up +22.79% through January 26 when the position was assumed closed after reaching a price target the day prior. MKTX finished the month up +27.45%. The worst performing stock in the long model was AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS), down -20.86%. Unfortunately AKS was our favorite long idea last month -- it took a hit after a sell side rating downgrade. In the theoretical short model, the best performing stock was Under Armour, Inc. (UA), which declined -23.64% for the month for the assumed short sale gain of +23.64%. The worst performing short idea was Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD), which rose +19.94% for the month for the assumed short sale loss of -19.94%. Performance of our favorite idea in January As previously mentioned, our favorite long idea was AK Steel Corp (AKS), which declined -20.86% for the month. Our favorite short idea was CarMax Inc. (KMX), which increased +3.86% for the month for an assumed short sale loss of -3.86%. Notes Except for extremely unusual circumstances, our long model portfolios are composed of high-quality stocks and our short model portfolios are composed of low-quality stocks.

Page 3: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 3 January 31, 2017

As a simple quantitative model based on fundamental rankings, the portfolio models do not take into account rumors or pending M&A transactions. The models are created just prior to the market close each month, but we usually do not publish until after the close due to time constraints. Looking ahead to February 2017 Long Rebalancing Actions As noted in our abbreviated report, as of the January 31, 2017 close 12 stocks have left the long-only model, 16 have been added, and 17 have been rebalanced. This 33-stock theoretical long model portfolio assumes a 3.03% weight for each stock. The long model portfolios are composed of high-quality stocks. Short Rebalancing Actions As of the January 31, 2017 close, 7 stocks have left the short sale model portfolios, 6 have been added, and 17 have been rebalanced. This 22-stock theoretical model portfolio assumes an equal 4.35% weight for each stock. This short sale model is composed of low-quality stocks, and only tends to work well during periods of high uncertainty or volatility in the market. Low-quality stocks do tend to outperform high-quality stocks during market rallies as the market prices in expectations for a sharp recovery in fundamentals.

Page 4: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 4 January 31, 2017

Our favorite long idea for February 2017 Our favorite long idea is for January 2017 is Maxim Integrated Products, Inc (MXIM). The stock is on the edge of acceptable relative value, with strong operating momentum, and strong consensus estimate revision trends. Stocks ranked 3, 4, 5 on these respective metrics seem to have a higher chance of transforming into a pure growth stock from a growth-at-a-reasonable-price stock. Nvidia (NVDA) is the latest example of a stock ranked 3, 4, 5 that has moved into growth territory.

Ranking Data as of January 31, 2017

Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. Information TechnologyNasdaqGS:MXIM Semiconductors

Ascendere Ranking Price 01/31/17 44.48 Cash (2,087) EV/LTM EBITDA 15.3 Shares 283 Debt 991 Price/Book 5.9 Market Cap 12,750 Other 0

5 = Best Rank Enterprise Value 11,655 Relative Value 3Operating Momentum 4 CY1 Consensus EPS Est. 2.21$ CY1 PE 20.1 Total Capital 3,135$ Analyst Revisions Mom 5 CY2 Consensus EPS Est. 2.40$ CY2 PE 18.5 Debt/Capital -35%Fundamental Quality 5 Latest Annualized Dividend 1.32$ Div Yield 2.9% Debt/Enterprise Value 9%

Source: Capital IQ data and estimates, and Ascendere Associates LLC data and estimates.

>-----------------Estimated-----------------<12/25/2017 9/24/2017 6/25/2017 3/26/2017 12/24/2016 9/24/2016 6/25/2016 3/26/2016 12/26/2015

NasdaqGS:MXIM LTM+4Q LTM+3Q LTM +2Q LTM +1Q Last LTM LTM-1 LTM-2 LTM -3 LTM -4NOPLAT 658 629 555 488 539 459 227 267 215 Economic Charge 381 383 384 386 388 344 340 377 403 Economic Profit 277 246 171 102 151 116 (113) (110) (188) Y/Y change 12.8% 43.9% 67.3% -32.3% 30.2% -202.1% 2.9% -41.3% -38.4%

NOPLAT 658 629 555 488 539 459 227 267 215 Operating Capital 4,311 4,331 4,349 4,367 4,389 4,433 4,452 4,636 4,742 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 15.3% 14.5% 12.8% 11.2% 12.3% 10.4% 5.1% 5.8% 4.5%

NOPLAT 658 629 555 488 539 459 227 267 215 5 Qtr Average Operating Capital 4,339 4,359 4,385 4,410 4,530 4,640 4,792 4,979 5,147 ROIC (NOPLAT / Operating Capital) 15.2% 14.4% 12.7% 11.1% 11.9% 9.9% 4.7% 5.4% 4.2%Source: Ascendere Associates assumptions and estimates, and S&P Capital IQ data and consensus estimates.

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 5 January 31, 2017

Long running advice regarding the use of our model portfolio report Wayne Gretzky said it best – “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Quantitative screens like the one in this report show where a stock has been and assume the trajectory is fixed. Of course, this is not always the case. The best investors will use this model portfolio as guidance, and not the end all. At the same time, the model does well enough on its own, often beating the indices with ease (though not this past month). With a little effort, we hope that active fundamental portfolio managers will do even better.

Page 6: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 6 January 31, 2017

Long Model Portfolio -- Rebalancing Actions

01/31/2017 Rebalancing

Core and Opportunistic Long Portfolio:33 stocks in the model portfolio = 3.03% weight per position

Close Position Hold/Rebalance Open PositionTC PipeLines, LP TCP LCI Industries LCII D.R. Horton, Inc. DHIEvercore Partners Inc. EVR Ulta Beauty, Inc. ULTA Unum Group UNMFifth Third Bancorp FITB Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL The Blackstone Group L.P. BXWestern Alliance Bancorporation WAL Apollo Global Management, LLCAPO Discover Financial Services DFSPrivateBancorp, Inc. PVTB Essent Group Ltd. ESNT Bank of America Corporation BACJetBlue Airways Corporation JBLU MarketAxess Holdings Inc. MKTX E*TRADE Financial Corporation ETFCManpowerGroup Inc. MAN Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conwa HOMB Banco Santander, S.A. SANNorthrop Grumman Corporation NOC Cathay General Bancorp CATY East West Bancorp, Inc. EWBCEMCOR Group, Inc. EME TD Ameritrade Holding Corpora AMTD Raymond James Financial, Inc. RJDCirrus Logic, Inc. CRUS United Therapeutics CorporationUTHR Washington Federal, Inc. WAFDAK Steel Holding Corporation AKS Hawaiian Holdings, Inc. HA Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. CFRMedical Properties Trust, Inc. MPW Copart, Inc. CPRT First Republic Bank FRC

HP Inc. HPQ Abbott Laboratories ABTInterDigital, Inc. IDCC Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. MXIMApplied Materials, Inc. AMAT Corning Incorporated GLWTeradyne, Inc. TER Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD

Source: Ascendere Associates LLC Facebook, Inc. FB

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 7 January 31, 2017

Short Model Portfolio -- Rebalancing Actions When the market anticipates an improving economy from low price levels, low-quality stocks will at times out-perform high-quality stocks as the expected improvements in fundamentals are discounted from a relatively more depressed price level.

1/31/2017 Rebalancing

Core and Opportunistic Short Portfolio:23 stocks in the model portfolio = 4.35% weight per position

Close Position Hold/Rebalance Open Short SaleTribune Media Company TRCO CarMax Inc. KMX Hess Corporation HESCredit Suisse Group AG CS Honda Motor Co., Ltd. HMC Golar LNG Limited GLNGEndo International plc ENDP Under Armour, Inc. UA Tesaro, Inc. TSRONavistar International Corporation NAV Superior Energy Services, Inc. SPN Stericycle, Inc. SRCLCimpress N.V. CMPR CIT Group Inc. CIT Joy Global Inc. JOYBaidu, Inc. BIDU Legg Mason, Inc. LM Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan InPOTPandora Media, Inc. P Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc RARE

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACADJacobs Engineering Group Inc. JECTerex Corporation TEXIAC/InterActiveCorp IACQorvo, Inc. QRVOWorkday, Inc. WDAYAutodesk, Inc. ADSKTableau Software, Inc. DATACF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF

Source: Ascendere Associates LLC United States Steel CorporationX

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 8 January 31, 2017

Return Data

Core & Opportunistic Long Model MTD Theoretical 12/31/2016 to 1/31/2017

Target/ Date+1 Sector Company Ticker 12/31/2016 1/31/2017 Performance Stop Date Sell Price ReturnFinancials MarketAxess Holdings Inc. MKTX 146.92 187.25 27.45% 1/25/2017 180.41$ 22.79%Health Care United Therapeutics Corp. UTHR 143.43 163.63 14.08%Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 128.34$ 11.55%Financials Evercore Partners Inc. EVR 68.70 77.45 12.74% 1/26/2017 77.50$ 12.81%Information Technology Teradyne Inc. TER 25.40 28.38 11.73% 1/27/2017 28.80$ 13.39%Financials Apollo Global Management, LLC APO 19.36 21.24 9.71% 1/26/2017 21.18$ 9.40%Industrials Manpower Inc. MAN 88.87 95.46 7.42%Consumer Discretionary Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, InULTA 254.94 272.28 6.80%Financials Essent Group Ltd. ESNT 32.37 34.57 6.80%Information Technology Cirrus Logic Inc. CRUS 56.54 60.32 6.69%Financials TD AMERITRADE Holding CorporationAMTD 43.43 46.15 6.26%Information Technology Applied Materials Inc. AMAT 32.27 34.25 6.14%Financials Medical Properties Trust Inc. MPW 12.30 12.75 3.66%Information Technology InterDigital, Inc. IDCC 91.04 93.40 2.59%Industrials Copart Inc. CPRT 55.41 56.74 2.40%Energy TC Pipelines LP TCP 58.84 60.08 2.11%Consumer Discretionary LCI Industries LCII 107.75 109.75 1.86%Information Technology Hewlett-Packard Co. HPQ 14.84 15.05 1.42%Financials Western Alliance Bancorporation WAL 48.71 49.38 1.38%Financials Privatebancorp Inc. PVTB 54.19 54.66 0.87%Consumer Discretionary Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL 84.75 83.70 -1.24%Industrials EMCOR Group Inc. EME 70.68 69.69 -1.40%Industrials Northrop Grumman Corp. NOC 232.58 229.08 -1.50%Financials Home Bancshares, Inc. HOMB 27.77 26.94 -2.99%Financials Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 26.97 26.10 -3.23%Financials Cathay General Bancorp CATY 38.03 36.44 -4.18%Industrials Hawaiian Holdings Inc. HA 57.00 50.95 -10.61%Industrials JetBlue Airways Corporation JBLU 22.42 19.61 -12.53%Materials AK Steel Holding Corp. AKS 10.21 8.08 -20.86%

Ascendere Associates LLC

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 9 January 31, 2017

Core & Opportunistic Short Model MTD ts hit target 8/4/2011 for 14.84% gain12/31/2016 to 1/31/2017

Target/ Date+1 Sector Company Ticker 12/31/2016 1/31/2017 Performance Stop Date Sell Price ReturnHealth Care Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. ENDP 16.47 12.24 -25.68% 1/17/2017 13.17$ -20.04%Consumer Discretionary Under Armour, Inc. UA 25.17 19.22 -23.64% 1/31/2017 NAIndustrials Navistar International Corp. NAV 31.37 27.27 -13.07% 1/20/2017 27.07$ -13.71%Information Technology Cimpress NV CMPR 91.61 84.39 -7.88%Financials CIT Group, Inc. CIT 42.68 41.19 -3.49%Consumer Discretionary Tribune Media Company TRCO 29.37 28.84 -1.80%Materials United States Steel Corp. X 33.01 32.71 -0.91%Information Technology Pandora Media, Inc. P 13.04 13.00 -0.31%Industrials Terex Corp. TEX 31.53 31.80 0.86%Consumer Discretionary Honda Motor Co. Ltd. HMC 29.19 29.72 1.82% 1/25/2017 30.73$ 5.28%Industrials Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. JEC 57.00 58.55 2.72%Consumer Discretionary CarMax Inc. KMX 64.39 66.71 3.60%Energy Superior Energy Services Inc. SPN 16.88 17.67 4.68%Financials Legg Mason Inc. LM 29.91 31.69 5.95% 1/23/2017 33.20$ 11.00%Information Technology IAC/InterActiveCorp IAC 64.79 68.81 6.20% 1/5/2017 69.65$ 7.50%Financials Credit Suisse Group CS 14.31 15.20 6.22%Information Technology Baidu, Inc. BIDU 164.41 175.07 6.48% 1/5/2017 176.38$ 7.28%Healthcare Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. RARE 70.31 75.01 6.68%Information Technology Autodesk, Inc. ADSK 74.01 81.34 9.90% 1/13/2017 81.32$ 9.88%Materials CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF 31.48 35.29 12.10% 1/24/2017 36.54$ 16.07%Information Technology Tableau Software, Inc. DATA 42.15 47.84 13.50% 1/24/2017 47.84$ 13.50%Health Care Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. ACAD 28.84 34.59 19.94% 1/31/2017 NAInformation Technology Qorvo, Inc. QRVO 52.73 64.21 21.77% 1/18/2017 58.31$ 10.58%Information Technology Workday, Inc. WDAY 66.09 83.09 25.72% 1/6/2017 74.76$ 13.12%

Ascendere Associates LLC

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 10 January 31, 2017

* Return figures are calculated using cumulative simple returns. This table represents returns of several theoretical portfolios that do not assume any costs. This table is not to be construed as advertising for any investment service. Real portfolios that attempt to exactly replicate these theoretical strategies will generate lower returns relative to these models due to slippage, transaction costs, tax expenses and other costs. There are limitations inherent in our theoretical results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. We do our best to provide accurate information, but do not guarantee this. Please see additional disclosures and disclaimers.

Theoretical Model Portfolio* 01/31/17 MTD YTDSince

03/31/09 SharpeSimple Returns (No Compounding)

Stock Targets Core ModelLong -0.44% 2.83% 18.86% 178.9% 1.02 Short 0.12% 2.91% 3.14% 67.4% 0.42 Core Long/Short -0.56% -0.08% 15.72% 111.5% 0.90

Stock Targets and Opportunistic ModelPortfolio Targets Long -0.44% 2.83% 6.49% 153.7% 1.12

Short 0.00% 5.56% -6.03% -3.6% (0.03) Opportunistic Long/Short -0.44% -2.73% 12.52% 157.3% 1.32

Stock Targets and Opportunistic Model IIIPortfolio Targets Long Stocks -0.44% 2.83% 6.49% 153.7% 1.12

Long Inverse ETF ^SH 0.00% -1.78% -8.79% -81.8% (0.77) Opportunistic Long/Short III -0.44% 1.05% -2.30% 72.0% 0.71

S&P 500 Index -0.60% 1.79% 1.79% 114.99% 0.91

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 11 January 31, 2017

Page 12: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 12 January 31, 2017

Page 13: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 13 January 31, 2017

Page 14: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 14 January 31, 2017

Page 15: Ascendere Associates LLC Innovative Long/Short Equity Research · 2017-02-01 · Information Technology Facebook, Inc. FB 115.05 130.32 13.27% 1/13/2017 $ 128.34 11.55% Financials

Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 15 January 31, 2017

Core Opportunistic"Dollar

Neutral" 1"Dollar

Neutral" 2

Inception March 31, 2009Long , Stock

Targets

Long, Stock and Portfolio Targets

Long/Short, Stock Targets and Portfolio

Targets

Long, Stock and Portfolio

Targets / Long ^SH ETF S&P 500

1/31/2017 Theoretical Theoretical Theoretical TheoreticalSimple ReturnsToday 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% 0.16% -0.09%MTD 2.83% 2.83% -2.73% 1.05% 1.79%YTD 18.86% 6.49% 12.52% -2.30% 1.79%Cumulative from 3/31/2009 178.95% 153.71% 157.30% 71.96% 114.99%

Absolute RiskDaily Average 0.09% 0.08% 0.08% 0.04% 0.06%Daily Range 16.86% 15.84% 11.84% 12.00% 11.40%Daily Standard Deviation 1.41% 1.09% 0.96% 0.80% 1.01%Daily Return/Standard Deviation 6.43% 7.12% 8.33% 4.55% 5.79%

Average 90-Day T-bill 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% Annualized Daily Returns 22.86% 19.63% 20.09% 9.19% 14.69% Annualized Standard Deviation 22.4% 17.4% 15.2% 12.7% 16.0%Sharpe Ratio 0.97 1.06 1.24 0.63 0.84

Percentage Down Days 45.3% 35.3% 42.9% 45.1% 45.4%Average Daily Downside Value -1.00% -0.88% -0.66% -0.53% -0.72%Daily Downside Deviation -1.06% -0.90% -0.62% -0.56% -0.76%Daily VAR of 1000 at 95% Conf -22 -17 -15 -13 -16

Benchmark Relative RiskCorrelation 0.90 0.70 (0.05) 0.05R-Squared 0.82 0.49 0.00 0.00Daily Tracking Error 0.66% 0.82% 1.42% 1.26%

RegressionBeta 1.27 0.76 -0.05 0.04Daily Alpha 0.032% 0.020% 0.021% -0.022%Jensen's Daily Alpha 0.041% 0.015% -0.001% -0.001%

Trading Days 1973 1973 1973 1973*Returns calculated by the simple return method (not compounded).

* Portfolio models are theoretical and assume no costs.

* Data collected in real time since 3/31/2009

Source: Ascendere Associates LLC

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 16 January 31, 2017

DISCLOSURES Ascendere is in the business of providing equity research and related consulting services to investors and their advisors. The equity research it provides includes basic quantitative model portfolios and more detailed fundamental research with respect to individual stocks. In addition, the firm manages stock portfolios for itself and clients. Ascendere does not rate stocks on any scale, but does offer individual stock commentary and valuation opinions. With regard to Ascendere's portfolio strategies, "long" or "high-quality" baskets should generally be considered buys, unless otherwise noted. Stocks in our "short" or "low-quality" baskets should generally be considered sells, unless otherwise noted. While exceptions may occasionally occur, typically stocks in the high-quality basket are expected to outperform the S&P 500 over a month's time and stocks in the low-quality basket are expected to underperform. A more relevant benchmark would comprise of all stocks and ADRs that trade on major U.S. stock exchanges with a market cap above $2 billion. Ascendere adheres to professional standards and abides by codes of ethics that put the interests of clients ahead of its own. The following are specific disclosures made by Ascendere: 1) Ascendere may have a financial interest in the companies referred to in this report ("the Companies"). The research analyst covering the Companies and members of the analyst's immediate family have a financial interest in one or more of the Companies. 2) Ascendere generates revenue from research subscription revenue and portfolio management fees. At any given time it may be long or short any of the Companies. 3) Ascendere does not make a market in the securities of any of the Companies. 4) Ascendere has not received compensation from the Companies. 5) Ascendere has not managed or co-managed a public offering for any of the Companies. 6) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any of the Companies. 7) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst beneficially own 1% or more of any class of securities of any of the Companies. DISCLAIMERS This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report is not intended to be in furtherance of the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual recipient. Investment decisions should be based on an individual's own goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of Ascendere at the time the report was released. The opinions of Ascendere are subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation or notification. The officers, affiliates or family members of Ascendere Associates may hold positions in the securities of the Companies. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. The views and opinions expressed in the market commentary reflect the opinions of the author and may be based upon information obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. These opinions are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Ascendere disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This information is intended for the sole use of clients of Ascendere. Any other use, distribution or reproduction is strictly prohibited. Investing in stocks includes a high degree of risk, including the risk of total loss. This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. All information, opinions and estimates are current as of original distribution by author and are subject to change at any time without notice. Any companies, securities and/or markets referenced are solely for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. For Investment Professional use only. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION. Any dissemination or copying of this commentary is strictly prohibited.

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Ascendere Associates LLC [email protected] J. Stephen Castellano Page 17 January 31, 2017

J. Stephen Castellano – founded Ascendere Associates LLC in 2009 to provide innovative equity research and financial modeling consulting services. Among the services that Ascendere provides are: 1) detailed custom equity research analysis; 2) valuation scenario analysis studies; 3) supply /demand studies; 4) long and short stock idea generation; 5) portfolio feedback; 6) detailed fundamental financial modeling services; and 7) additional analytical consulting services. Additional information is available at jstephencastellano.tumblr.com.

Mr. Castellano has over 20 years of experience in equity research and related consulting positions. At PaineWebber, Warburg Dillon Read, and Credit Lyonnais Securities he developed fundamental equity valuation models and conducted in-depth research on the steel and telecom services industries. At Boston Private Value Investors, he built sophisticated screens for stock idea generation and also provided general fundamental equity research coverage. He received a MBA from the F. W. Olin School of Business at Babson College (2005) and a BA from Oberlin College (1993). He is a CFA Level 3 candidate, and is on the Board of Advisors of GovBrain, a political intelligence and government analytics company serving the hedge fund industry. Mr. Castellano’s sell side equity research experience includes consulting with investment banking teams on planned equity, debt, and M&A deals. Consulting projects have included the development of xml-based financial models as well as marketing strategies for a financial data provider, equity research reports for a family office equity portfolio, supply/demand models for a telecom consulting firm, cash burn rate scenarios for a key stakeholder in an iconic food manufacturing company, a budget forecast model for a 250,000 bpd oil refining company, a budget forecast and valuation for a risk management software startup, and due diligence of a potential acquisition of a fast-growing fashion apparel boutique, among others. Mr. Castellano's career history is highlighted below:

• Ascendere Associates, LLC (2009-Present) • Boston Private Value Investors , Equity Research, Equity Research Analyst (2005-2009) • Pyramid Research, Contract Consultant, Telecom Services (2002-2003) • Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA), Equity Research, Telecom Services, Vice President (2000-2001) • Warburg Dillon Read, Equity Research, Telecom Services, Research Associate (1999-2000) • PaineWebber, Equity Research, Steel and Nonferrous Metals, Research Associate, Editor (1995-1999)