argentina and the falklands - henry jackson...
TRANSCRIPT
Argentina and the Falklands:Thirty years on
A Henry Jackson Society Strategic Briefing
By Peter Cannon
February 2012
Executive summary:◊ 30yearsonfromtheFalklandsWar,Argentinahas
escalateditsdiplomaticandeconomiccampaignto
claimtheFalklandIslandsfromtheUnitedKingdom
(UK).
◊ ArgentinahascomplainedtotheUnitedNations
(UN)abouttheUK,accusingitof‘militarisation’of
theSouthAtlantic.Thisisclearlyunjustifiedasthe
reasonsfortheUK’smilitarypresenceisArgentina’s
continuingclaimtotheterritoryfollowingits
unsuccessfulattempttotaketheislandsbyforcein
1982.
◊ Argentinahasreceivedsupportinitscampaignfrom
neighbouringcountriesandleftistpoliticalleadersin
LatinAmerica.TheUnitedStates(US)administration
unhelpfullystatesthatit“takesnopositionregarding
sovereignty”.
◊ SpainhasalsosoughttorenewitsclaimtoGibraltar
andtocallforbilateralnegotiationsoversovereignty.
LikeArgentina,Spainseekstoactwithoutreference
totheself-determinationofthepopulationofthe
territory.
◊ ConcernshavebeenexpressedabouttheUK’s
capacitytorepeatitssuccessof1982intheeventof
anArgentineinvasionoftheFalklands,particularly
followingtheStrategicDefenceandSecurityReview.
However,theislandsaremuchbetterdefended
nowanditishighlydoubtfulthatArgentinahasthe
militarycapabilitytolaunchasuccessfulinvasion.
◊ Thereis,however,noroomforcomplacencygiven
Argentina’sbehaviour.TheUKmustretainthewill
andthecapabilitytodefendtheFalklandIslandsand
therightsoftheFalklandIslanders,alone.
3
Argentina’s complaint to the UN
Inthisyearofthe30thanniversaryoftheFalklands
War,thedisputeovertheFalklandIslandshas
reachedanewlevel.InFebruary,Argentinaformally
complainedtotheUnitedNations(UN)overtheUnited
Kingdom(UK)’salleged‘militarisation’oftheSouth
Atlantic.AccordingtotheArgentinegovernment,
bydeployingHMSDauntless(aType-45destroyer)
totheSouthAtlantic,theUKwas“militarisingthe
region”.1ArgentineforeignministerHéctorTimerman
presentedtheUKasanimperialistpower,displaying
amapofUKbasesacrosstheSouthAtlanticbetween
SouthAmericaandAfricaandcomplainingthatthe
“Empire’scapital”was4,000milesaway,andadding:
“ItisthelastoceanthatiscontrolledbytheUnited
Kingdom–BritanniarulesonlytheSouthAtlantic.”2Similarly,ArgentinepresidentCristinaFernandez
argued“thismilitarisationposesagravedanger
tointernationalsecurity...Wecannotinterpretin
anyotherwaythedeploymentofanultra-modern
destroyeraccompanyingtheheirtothethrone,who
wewouldprefertoseeincivilianattire.”3
Thiswasanextraordinarycomplainttocomefrom
Argentina,giventhatthereasonfortheBritish
militarypresenceintheSouthAtlanticistodeterany
repeatofArgentina’s1982invasionoftheislands,
inanunprovokedattacktotaketheislandsbyforce
againstthewishesofthepopulation.AstheFalkland
IslandsareBritishsovereignterritory,Britishmilitary
deploymentsthereshouldnotbeArgentina’sconcern,
butarefortheUKtodecide.Similarly,thedeployment
ofPrinceWilliam,theDukeofCambridge,asanRAF
search-and-rescuepilotisaroutinedeploymentwhich
cannotrealisticallybesaidtoposeathreattoanyone,
andwhichisnoneofArgentina’sbusiness.
1 ‘Argentina minister to raise “UK militarisation” at UN’, BBC News, 9th February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-16976491
2 ‘Argentina accuses Britain of sending nuclear missiles to Falklands’, Daily Telegraph, 11th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9075975/Argentina-accuses-Britain-of-sending-nuclear-missiles-to-Falklands.html
3 ‘Downing Street denies UK is “militarising” Falklands’, BBC News, 8th February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16947668
TheArgentineforeignministersoughttoraise
thelevelofalarmattheUNbyaccusingtheUKof
sendingnuclearweaponstothearea.Timerman
stated:“Argentinahasinformationthatwithinthe
frameworkoftherecentBritishdeploymentinthe
MalvinasIslandstheysentanuclearsubmarine...to
transportnuclearweaponstotheSouthAtlantic...
TheinformationArgentinahasisthattherearethese
nuclearweapons.”Hearguedthatthisviolatedthe
TreatyofTlatelolcofortheProhibitionofNuclear
WeaponsinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.
Needlesstosay,thiswasaridiculousaccusationas
thelocationoftheUK’snucleardeterrentsubmarines
isacloselyguardedsecret,andasTridentmissiles
havearangeofupto7,500milesanyway.TheUK’s
ambassadortotheUnitedNations,SirMarkLyall
Grantsaid“Wedonotcommentonthedispositionof
nuclearweaponsandsubmarines.Idon’tknowhow
heknowsaboutsubmarines.Icertainlydon’tknow.
Thewholepointofnuclearsubmarinesisthattheygo
allaroundtheworldandyoudon’tknowwherethey
are.That’swhythey’readeterrent.”4SirMarkpointed
outthattheUK’sdefenceposturehadnotchanged,
andthatHMSDauntlesswasreplacinganothership.
4 ‘Argentina accuses Britain of sending nuclear missiles to Falklands’, Daily Telegraph, 11th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9075975/Argentina-accuses-Britain-of-sending-nuclear-missiles-to-Falklands.html
HMS Dauntless was deployed to the Falklands in January 2012.
4
Support for Argentina’s campaign
to isolate the Falkland Islands
Argentina’scomplainttotheUNisbutthelatest
stepinArgentina’sdiplomaticcampaigntoisolate
theUKinitsrefusaltonegotiateoveritssovereignty
overtheFalklands.Thishasbeenaccompanied
byamountingcampaigntoisolatetheislands
economically.Argentinaclaimstheseasaroundthe
FalklandsasArgentinewatersandattemptstostop
shipsfromreachingtheislands.Shipsrounding
CapeHornheadingfortheFalklandsareroutinely
stopped,searchedanddelayed,withtheresultthat
manymerchantvesselsnolongerattemptthejourney,
whichresultsinperiodicalshortagesofgoods.5
ArgentinahasalsoputpressureonChiletoendthe
weeklyflightsfromPuntaArenastoPortStanley,
whichpassthroughArgentineairspace.6
Argentinarecentlysucceededinpersuading
neighbouringcountriestorefuseaccesstotheirports
toshipsflyingtheFalklandIslandsflag.On15th
December2011,theMercosurgroupofArgentina,
Brazil,ParaguayandUruguayagreedtoblockany
shipflyingtheFalklandsflagtoentertheirports.7
Thiswasfollowedbyasimilarmovethismonthfrom
theleft-leaningBolivarianAlternativeoftheAmericas
(ALBA)bloc.8ThisincludedCommonwealthmembers
AntiguaandBarbuda,Dominica,andStVincentand
theGrenadines.Thisfollowssupportforfromthe
newlyformedCommunityofLatinAmericanand
CaribbeanStates(CELAC),whichhelditsfirstsummit
inCaracas,Venezuela,inDecember2011.Atthe
Caracassummit,CELACissueda‘SpecialCommuniqué
ProjectontheMalvinasIslands’statingthatmembers
5 ‘Falkland Islands: A shortage of eggs’, Allan Little, BBC News, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16980747
6 ‘Argentina accused of plotting Falklands blockade’, Rory Carroll, Jonathan Franklin in Santiago and Uki Goni in Buenos Aires, The Guardian, 1st February 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/01/argentina-falklands-economic-blockade
7 ‘William Hague warns against Falklands intimidation’, Theo Usherwood, 10th January 2012, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/william-hague-warns-against-falklands-intimidation-6287659.html
8 ‘Caribbean countries back Argentina over Falklands with blockade’, Uki Goni, The Guardian, 6th February 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/06/falklands-argentina-britain-blockade
ofCELACsupport“Argentina’slegitimaterightsin
thesovereigntydisputeovertheFalklands/Malvinas,
GeorgiadelSurandSandwichdelSurIslands,aswell
asitssurroundingmaritimespaces.”9
SomeleftistLatinAmericanleaderswereparticularly
outspoken.RafaelCorrea,presidentofEcuador,
calledforfurtheractionsagainsttheUK,tellingother
ALBAleaders:“ItistimeforLatinAmericatodecide
sanctionsagainstthismistakenpowerthatpretends
tobeimperialistandcolonialistinthe21stcentury.
Ithinkwehavetoapplymoreforcefulthings.We
havetotalkaboutsanctions.”10Venezuelanleader
HugoChavezofferedArgentinamilitarysupportin
theeventofanywar,declaring:“I’mspeakingonly
forVenezuela,butifitoccurstotheBritishEmpireto
attackArgentina,Argentinawon’tbealonethistime.
Venezuelaisnopower,butwe’vegotsomeweapons
andthewilltofaceanyimperialistaggression.”11
Cuba’sFidelCastromockedBritain’smilitaryposition,
saying:“SomewhereistheEnglishshipsailingtothe
FalklandsbuttheEnglishonlyhaveonelittleboat
left.Theonlyoneswhohaveaircraftcarriersare
theYankees.AlltheEnglishcandoissendovera
destroyer,theycan’tevensendanaircraftcarrier.”12
Limits to the support for
Argentina
TherearelimitstothesupportwhichArgentina
hasreceived.ShortlyaftertheALBAsummit,the
Dominicangovernmentreleasedastatementsaying
that“Dominicadisassociatesitselffromstatements
regardingthebanningofshipscarryingtheflagof
9 ‘Argentina and the Falkland Islands’, Vaughan Miller, House of Commons Library, 27th January 2012, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05602
10 ‘Caribbean countries back Argentina over Falklands with blockade’, Uki Goni, The Guardian, 6th February 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/06/falklands-argentina-britain-blockade
11 ‘Hugo Chavez says Venezuelan troops would fight with Argentina over Falklands’, Barney Henderson, Daily Telegraph, 6th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9063065/Hugo-Chavez-says-Venezuelan-troops-would-fight-with-Argentina-over-Falklands.html
12 ‘Castro mocks UK Falklands claim as Argentina accuses Britain of “militarisation”’, Jon Swaine & Raf Sanchez, Daily Telegraph, 9th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9068701/Castro-mocks-UK-Falklands-claim-as-Argentina-accuses-Britain-of-militarisation.html
5
theFalklandsfromenteringitsports.”Antiguaand
Barbudaalsodistanceditselffromthatpartofthe
ALBAdeclaration.13DespitetheMercosurbanon
Falklands-flaggedships,Brazil,ChileandUruguayall
agreedwiththeBritishGovernmentthatFalklands
shippingflyingtheRedEnsignoranothernationalflag
wouldstillbeadmittedtotheirportsasnormal.14This
meansthatthebanshouldhavelittlepracticaleffect.
Argentina’scomplainttotheUNabouttheUK’s
‘militarisation’oftheSouthAtlantichas,unsurprisingly,
gotnowheresofar.TheArgentinepresslamentedthe
factthattheArgentinecomplainthasnotgenerated
“asingleinternationalcondemnation,verballyor
througharesolution”.ThepressofficesfromUN
SecretaryGeneralBan-KimoonandtheUNGeneral
AssemblypresidentNassirAbdulazizAl-Nassersent
outofficialreleasesfollowingtheirmeetingswith
Timerman,butneitherofthemreferredtothealleged
UKmilitarisationoftheSouthAtlantic.Thepresident
oftheSecurityCouncil,KodjoMenamdidnoteven
bothertoissueapressreleaseonthemeeting,
accordingtoArgentinepresscorrespondentsin
NewYork.ThemostArgentinawasabletogetfrom
BanKi-Moonwasastatementthathewas“willing
tocoordinateamongbothsidesifthecountriesso
requestit.”15AstheUKdoesnotwishtonegotiate,this
situationwillnotarise.
The position of the United States
TheUnitedStates(US)administrationquickly
dismissedtheArgentineclaimof‘militarisation’,
withUSStateDepartmentspokeswomanVictoria
Nulandsaying:“TheUKhasmadecleartousandto
theArgentinesthatwhattheyareengagedin,ina
13 ‘Dominica disassociates from barring Falklands’ flagged vessels from its ports’, MercoPress, 15th February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/15/dominica-disassociates-from-barring-falklands-flagged-vessels-from-its-ports
14 ‘William Hague warns against Falklands intimidation’, Theo Usherwood, The Independent, 10th January 2012, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/william-hague-warns-against-falklands-intimidation-6287659.html
15 ‘Timerman Falklands “militarization claim” with little echo at UN admits Argentine press’, MercoPress, 21st February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/21/timerman-falklands-militarization-claim-with-little-echo-at-un-admits-argentine-press
navalcapacityisnormalandistypicalforthistime
ofyear.Sowedon’thaveanyreasontoquestion
that.”16Similarly,whenajournalistaskedaboutthe
deploymentofPrinceWilliam,Nulandrespondedthat
hisdeploymentwas“aspartofhisnormalwork”.17
However,theUS’spositiononBritishsovereignty
overtheFalklandsislessthanhelpful,withthe
officialpositionbeing“WerecognizedefactoUnited
Kingdomadministrationoftheislandsbuttakeno
positionregardingsovereignty”.18Consideringthe
overwhelmingdesireoftheFalklandIslandersto
remainBritish,thefactthattheislandshavebeen
continuallyBritishsince1833(beforemanyUSstates
becamepartoftheUnion)andthealliancebetween
theUSandtheUK,thereisnojustificationfortheUS
nottorecogniseBritishsovereigntyovertheFalklands.
NorisitreasonablefortheUSActingAssistant
SecretaryforWesternHemisphereAffairs,Roberta
Jacobson,tocallontheUKto‘negotiateadiplomatic
solution’withArgentina.19AsthisisaBritishterritory
whosepopulationwishesittoremainaBritish
territory,thereisnothingtonegotiate.
ThestanceoftheObamaadministrationhasnot
beenwithoutcriticismfromwithintheUS,with
RobertO’Brien,anadvisortoMittRomneyarguing
thatPresidentObamais‘notreliable’toitsallies:“He
hasnotbeenwithIsraelregardingIranandheisnot
beingwithGreatBritainintheissueoftheFalklands,
andallthefusstheArgentinesaremakingover
that”.20ArecenteditorialinInvestor’sBusinessDaily
criticisedtheObamaadministrationfor“Coddlingthe
aggressorsinthenameof‘peace.’”andaninability
16 ‘US disregards Argentine claim of UK’s Falklands’ and South Atlantic “militarization”’, MercoPress, 16th February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/16/us-disregards-argentine-claim-of-uk-s-falklands-and-south-atlantic-militarization
17 US State Department Daily Press Briefing, 9th February 2012, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2012/02/183639.htm
18 ‘U.S. Position on the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands’, US State Department Taken Question, 20th January 2012, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/01/182294.htm
19 ‘US calls for diplomatic solution to Falklands sovereignty issue’, Andina, 9th February 2012, http://www.andina.com.pe/Ingles/Noticia.aspx?Id=7YuKkH+mwg4=
20 ‘Timerman Falklands “militarization claim” with little echo at UN admits Argentine press’, MercoPress, 21st February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/21/timerman-falklands-militarization-claim-with-little-echo-at-un-admits-argentine-press
6
todecide“betweenourtopally,Britain,andHugo
Chavez-alignedArgentina”.21RepublicanCongressman
JimSensenbrennerrecentlyvisitedtheFalklands,and
statedthatiftheUnitedNations“meanswhatitsays,”
itshouldsupport“thedecisionthatFalklandIslanders
hadmadeforthemselves....Ratherthanbeingtreated
toPowerPointpresentationsbyForeignMinister
Timerman,they(theUN)shouldbackuptheself-
determinationofFalklandIslanders.”22
The issue of Spain and Gibraltar
AtthesametimeasArgentina’srenewedeffortsto
forcenegotiationsovertheFalklands,theUKisalso
facingreneweddiplomaticpressurefromtheSpanish
GovernmentoverGibraltar.Thenewcentre-right
PopularPartygovernmenthascalledforbilateral
negotiationsbetweentheSpanishandBritish
governmentsovertheBritishoverseasterritory,
withoutincludingtheelectedgovernmentofGibraltar.
Inagestureofthenewgovernment’smorehard-line
attitude,thenewforeignministerJoseManuelGarcia-
MargallogreetedaBritishConservativeMemberof
theEuropeanParliamentwiththeslogan“Gibraltar,
Español!”23Moreseriously,GarciaMargallohassaid
thatthetrilateralDialogueForum(betweentheBritish,
SpanishandGibraltargovernmentsduringthetime
ofthepreviousSocialistgovernment)“initsSocialist
versionisdead”.
SpeakingaftertheSomaliaconferenceinLondonon
23rdFebruary,GarciaMallegocommented:“There’s
noneedforaprophetoraPulitzerPrizetoknowthat
inthecomingUNsession,MalvinasandGibraltarwill
bediscussedandthattheUNwillagainreiteratethat
wemustsitandnegotiate”.Worryingly,headdedthat
21 ‘Argentina Acts Up—Again—Over Falkland Islands’, Investors Business Daily, 9th February 2012, http://news.investors.com/article/600742/201202091913/argentina-falklands-tensions-up-with-uk.htm
22 ‘Cool it Argentina says US congressman in Stanley’, Penguin News, 24th February 2012, http://www.penguin-news.com/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=items&id=267:cool-it-argentina-says-us-congressman-in-stanley
23 ‘”Gibraltar, Español!” Spanish foreign minister’s joke to Tory MEP as he’s congratulated on his new job’, Daily Mail, 19th January 2012, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2088965/Gibraltar-Espa-ol-Spanish-foreign-ministers-joke-Tory-MEP-hes-congratulated-new-job.html
thecasesoftheFalklandsandGibraltar“lookalike
becausetheyareincludedintheUNlistofterritories
subjecttodecolonization;becausetheprincipleofself-
determinationisnotapplicable.”GarciaMallegoalso
statedthathewouldwritetotheBritishGovernment
toformallyrejecttheprinciplethattheGibraltarians
themselvesshouldhavetherighttovetoany
negotiations.24GiventhatGibraltarisdemocratically
self-governing;thatithasbeenaBritishterritory
since1704andwascededbySpaintotheUKinthe
TreatyofUtrechtin1713;andthatthepopulation
hasoverwhelminglyrejectedtheideaofSpanishand
sharedsovereigntyinreferendain1967and2002,this
approachiscompletelyunjustifiedandblatantlyanti-
democratic.
Gibraltaritselfalsohasanew,Socialist,government
whichisabsolutelyopposedtoanynegotiationswith
SpainoverGibraltar’ssovereignty.Thenewchief
ministerFabianPicardo,respondedtotheSpanish
Government’sdemandsbysaying:“Wearealways
hopefulthatSpainwillfollowusintothe21stCentury
anddropitsclaimonourland...Weareseeingwhat
appearstobeamoreproactivedesirebySpainto
raisethesovereigntyissue...itseemstomethe
Spanishhaveothermoreimportantprioritiesthan
historicclaimsovermypeople.”25InOctober2011,
followinganagreementtobaseUSanti-missile
warshipsatRota,formerLabourEuropeminister
DenisMacShaneMPwroteintheSpanishnewspaper
24 ‘Spain trusts Gibraltar and Malvinas cases will be addressed at next UN General Assembly’, MercoPress, 24th February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/24/spain-trusts-gibraltar-and-malvinas-cases-will-be-addressed-at-next-un-general-assembly
25 ‘Gibraltar: Between the Rock and an increasingly hard-line place’, Harriet Alexander, Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/9061381/Gibraltar-Between-the-Rock-and-an-increasingly-hard-line-place.html
Gibraltar
7
ElMundo:“Londonmustnowaskitselfseriouslyif
itsconstantrefusaltodiscussanewagreementon
Gibraltarhasanystrategicsense,whenMadridhas
movedontooccupytheplaceasthemainallyofthe
USintheareaofdefence.”26Giventheoverwhelming
99percentrejectionoftheprincipleofanysharing
ofsovereigntybetweentheUKandSpainbythe
Gibraltarianpeopleinthe2002referendum,any
attempttoreachanotheragreementwithSpainover
theirheadswouldbeashamefulbetrayal.Negotiating
overaprosperous,peacefulanddemocraticterritory
(andmilitarybase)thathasbeenBritishforoverthree
centuriesagainstthewishesofitspeoplemakesno
strategicsensewhatsoever,particularlywhenthe
UKisfacingaggressiveclaimsonanotheroneofits
territories.
Why the UK should not negotiate
with Argentina
PeterSlowe,aformerfinancialadvisortotheBlair
government,recentlyarguedthatthe“UKmusthand
theFalklandsbacktoArgentina”.Sloweargues“both
BritainandArgentinahavehadseriousdoubtsat
varioustimesabouttheirrespectiveclaimstothe
FalklandIslands”and“ArgentinaandBritainbothfeel
theyhavearighttotheFalklandsbasedlessonlegal
rightsthanondifferentconceptsofnaturaljustice”.
SlowearguesthatBritainandArgentinahadbeen
willingtonegotiatebeforetheFalklandsWarandthat
“Onthe30thanniversaryoftheFalklandsWar,itis
surelytimeforacompromise”.Slowe’s‘compromise’
isthat“BritainshouldcedesovereigntytoArgentina
whileensuringbytreatywiththenow-democratic
governmentofArgentinathatthetinylocalpopulation
cancontinuetoenjoylocaldemocracyanda‘British’
wayoflife.”Astonishingly,Sloweconcludesthe
argumentbysaying“Then904youngservicemen,
whoshouldbynowbeoldormiddle-aged,willnot
26 ‘MacShane says Spain and UK should revisit Gib deal’, Dominique Searle, Gibraltar Chronicle, 13th October 2011, http://www.chronicle.gi/headlines_details.php?id=22979
havediedinvain.”27Yet255Britishservicemendied
liberatingtheislandsaftertheunprovokedArgentine
invasionin1982.Togiveawaysovereigntynow,
againstthewishesofthepopulation,wouldbethe
betrayaloftheirsacrifice.
CedingsovereigntytoArgentinaisnota‘compromise’
butacapitulation.Iftheislandsweretobecome
Argentinean,promisesoflocaldemocracyanda
‘Britishwayoflife’wouldbecomingmeaningless
andunenforceable.WhenArgentinahastriedand
failedtotakeaBritishterritorybyforceandnow
attemptstobullyandblockadeitspopulation,there
isnojustificationandnodiscerniblebenefitin
rewardingArgentinawithsovereignty.AstheHenry
JacksonSociety’sGeorgeGrantrecentlypointedout,
Argentina’srelativeproximitytotheFalklandsandthe
UK’sdistancedoesnotconferanylegitimacyorlogic
onArgentina’sclaim.28Itisalsoworthremembering
thatArgentinaalsoclaimsSouthGeorgiaandthe
SouthSandwichIslands,withwhichithasnohistorical
connectionwhatsoever,aswellastheBritishAntarctic
Territory.Mostimportantly,ofcourse,suchamove
wouldcompletelyviolatetheself-determinationofthe
islanders.TheUKisoftenaccusedof‘colonialism’,but
tobargainawayaterritoryandapopulationagainst
theirwishesforfinancialorotherdiplomaticmotives
wouldbethemostgrossformofcolonialismand
utterlyunacceptableinthemodernworld.
IntheGuardian,thehistorianRichardGottarguedthat
“BritainisasleepoverArgentinaandtheFalklands”
and“SouthAmericaisgrowinginstrengthand
increasinglyunited.”Gottarguesthat“Britainmust
wakeuptothisnewreality”byagreeingtonegotiate
withArgentina.LatinAmericahasindeedbecome
moreunitedbehindArgentina’sclaimandmore
hostiletoBritishsovereigntyovertheFalklands.
27 ‘Comment: UK must hand the Falklands back to Argentina’, Peter Slowe, Politics.co.uk, 7th February 2012, http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2012/02/07/comment-uk-must-hand-the-falklands-back-to-argentina
28 ‘Argentina has no more claim to the Falklands than Canada does to Alaska’, George Grant, Daily Telegraph, 8th February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9069338/Argentina-has-no-more-claim-to-the-Falklands-than-Canada-does-to-Alaska.html
8
ThatisnojustificationforgivingupontheBritish
Government’scommitmenttoprotecttherightsof
theFalklandIslanderstoself-determination.29Sucha
publicdisplayofweaknessandbadfaithwouldhardly
bebeneficialtoBritishdiplomacy,ortoattemptsto
promoteanddefendhumanrightsanddemocracy
worldwide.Itishighlydoubtfulthatgivinginto
Argentina’sbullyingwillingratiatetheUKwiththe‘anti-
imperialist’leftistpoliticalleadersofLatinAmerica,
ratherthansimplyemboldeningtheanti-British
andanti-USmood.ItisencouragingthattheBritish
governmentisseekingtostrengthenrelationships
withLatinAmerica,butthisshouldnotcomeatthe
priceofdenyingthemostbasicrightstoBritain’sown
peopleandbetrayingourownvalues.30
The defence of the Falkland
Islands
WiththeheightenedtensionovertheFalklands,
attentionhasinevitablyturnedtothedefence
situationintheislands,andwhethertheUKwould
beabletorepeatitssuccessofthirtyyearsagowere
Argentineforcestoattacktheislandsagain.Thereis
nodoubtthattheIslandsaremuchbetterdefended
nowthantheywerein1982.
Whereasin1982theFalklandsweredefendedby70
RoyalMarines,thereisnowaBritishgarrisonof1,200,
plus200reservistsintheFalklandIslandsDefence
Force.ThereisnowanRAFbaseonEastFalkland,
MountPleasant,withfourEurofighterTyphoonstrike
fighters,aHerculestransportplane,aVC-10tanker
planeandRapiersurface-to-airmissiles.Mount
Pleasantcouldofcoursebereinforcedbyairinan
emergency.In1982,theSouthAtlanticwaspatrolled
onlybyHMSEndurance,anAntarcticicepatrolvessel.
Now,aswellastheAntarcticpatrolvesselHMSClyde,
theSouthAtlanticispatrolledbytheType45destroyer
29 ‘Britain is asleep over Argentina and the Falklands’, Richard Gott, The Guardian, 22nd December 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/dec/22/britain-asleep-over-falkland-islands
30 ‘William Hague pushes for stronger Latin America ties’, BBC News, 20th January 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16643670
HMSDauntlessandtheRoyalFleetAuxiliarysupport
vesselRFAGoldRover.31Thereisalsolikelytobean
attacksubmarine,althoughtheUKdoesnotcomment
onsubmarinedeployments.WiththeTyphoonfighters
andtheUK’snavalpresence,itwouldbedifficult
forArgentinatotransportlandforcesacross300
milesofoceantoinvadetheislands.Thepossibility
ofanArgentinespecialforcesoperationtocapture
RAFMountPleasanthasbeensuggested,butthey
wouldface1,200Britishtroops.ProfessorMichael
Clarke,directoroftheRoyalUnitedServicesInstitute,
concludes:“There’snowayArgentineforcescouldever
takeMtPleasantairbase.”32
TheUK’sproblemswouldcomeintryingtoretake
theFalklandsinthatworstcasescenarioofArgentina
managingtotakeordestroyRAFMountPleasant.
WiththeStrategicDefenceandSecurityReviewhaving
lefttheUKwithoutcarrierstrikecapabilityfollowing
theretirementoftheHarrierfleetandHMSArkRoyal,
assemblinganavaltaskforcewithaircoverasthe
UKdidin1982wouldbeimpossible.Withnocarrier-
basedjetaircraft,theUK’soneremainingaircraft
carrier,HMSIllustrious,isbeingusedasanassault
shipandisduetobedecommissionedin2014.The
UKisnotduetohaveanotheraircraftcarrieruntil
theplannedcompletionofthefirstofthetwonew
QueenElizabethclasscarriersin2020.The1982task
forcehadtwoaircraftcarriers,in2012theUKhas
none.Britishairpowerwouldhavetooperatefrom
AscensionIsland,whichis4,000milesaway.
DuringHouseofCommonsdefencequestions,
defencesecretaryPhilipHammondtoldParliament
that“plansexistforrapidreinforcementoftheland,
seaandairforcesinandaroundtheislandsshould
anysuchthreatappear.”33Ithasbeenreportedthat
theMinistryofDefencehascontingencyplansfora
31 ‘The defence of the Falkland Islands’, Louisa Brooke-Holland, House of Commons Library, 8th February 2012, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06201
32 ‘Could Britain still defend the Falklands?’, BBC News Magazine, 27th February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17157373
33 Hansard, 20th February 2011, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201212/cmhansrd/cm120220/debtext/120220-0001.htm
rapidresponse‘minitaskforce’tobeformedfrom
theResponseForceTaskGroup,anamphibiousunit
setupin2010.MoreTyphoonfighterswouldbe
flowntoRAFMountPleasant,troopreinforcements
wouldbeflowninbytheairbridgefromRAFBrize
NortontoAscensionIslandandshipswouldbesent
fromPlymouth,theCaribbeanandtheAfricancoasts.34MuchofthiswouldstilldependonRAFMount
PleasantremainingoperationalandinBritishhands.
FormerChiefoftheGeneralStaffSirMikeJacksonhas
arguedthatintheeventofMountPleasantfalling;
“ourabilitytorecovertheislandsnowwouldbejust
aboutimpossible.Wearenotinapositiontotake
airpowerbyseasincethedemiseoftheHarrier
force.”35Similarly,AdmiralSirSandyWoodward,who
commandedtheBritishtaskforcein1982,warns
that“wecandopreciselynothing”.36RUSI’sMichael
Clarkearguesthatitwouldstillbepossibletoretake
theislandsthroughlong-rangeairpower.IfMount
PleasantwastakenbyArgentina,bombersfrom
AscensionIslandcoulddestroythebaseandany
Argentinedefences,afterwhichBritishspecialforces
couldbedroppedtoregaincontrol.37Thiswouldbea
farfromstraightforwardoption.
Argentina’smilitarycapabilityalsoneedstobe
considered.WhiletheUK’sarmedforcesare
muchsmallerthanin1982,soareArgentina’s.The
percentageofArgentina’sGDPwhichitspendson
defenceislessthanhalfthatoftheUK.Whereasthe
UK’sarmedforcesaremuchbetter-equippedand
moretechnologicallyadvancedthanin1982,Argentina
hashardlyupdateditsmilitaryhardwaresincethe
34 ‘Falklands task force plan “ready” if Argentina threatens to invade again’, Glen Owen, Daily Mail, 27th February 2012, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2106519/Falklands-task-force-plan-ready-Argentina-threatens-invade-again.html
35 ‘Britain faces “impossible” battle if Argentina invades Falklands, warns General Sir Michael Jackson’, Cole Moreton, Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9046476/Britain-faces-impossible-battle-if-Argentina-invades-Falklands-warns-General-Sir-Michael-Jackson.html
36 ‘Britain can do “nothing” to prevent Argentina retaking Falkland Islands’, Thomas Harding, Daily Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/8571442/Britain-can-do-nothing-to-prevent-Argentina-retaking-Falkland-Islands.html
37 ‘Could Britain still defend the Falklands?’, BBC News Magazine, 27th February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17157373
FalklandsWar.GarethJennings,headoftheairdesk
atIHSJane’s,observes:“Argentinahasnotpurchased
asinglenewcombataircraftsincebeforethewarin
1982...Essentially,ithasthesameairpowerithad
backin1982,minustheaircraftthatwereshotdown.
Theydidn’tfaretoowellagainsttheSeaHarriersthen
andthey’dbetornapartbytheTyphoonstoday.”38In
addition,Argentinanolongerpossessesthelanding
crafttoenableanamphibiousassault.MichaelClarke
goessofarastoarguethatwhiletheFalklandswar
was30yearsago,“inmilitarytermsitis100years
ago,”asBritishforceshaveadvancedabout60years
insophistication,butArgentineforceshavebarely
improved.39
What next?
ThisisthemainreasonwhyanArgentinemilitary
attackis,intheforeseeablefutureunlikely.Yetsuchan
eventcannotberuledout.The1982invasiontookthe
Britishgovernmentbysurprise.40Thereisnoroomfor
complacencynow.
Itisthereforeencouragingthatthesecurityofthe
FalklandswasdiscussedatlengthbytheUK’sNational
SecurityCouncil.41DavidCameronmadeclear:“The
reasonforholdingaNationalSecurityCouncil–which
alsodiscussedothertopics–istodiscussthatissue,
istomakesurenobodyisinanydoubtthatBritain
supportsthatrightofself-determination,andwewill
goondoingsoforaslongaspeopleintheFalklands
wanttocontinueinthatway.”42
38 ‘The defence of the Falkland Islands’, Louisa Brooke-Holland, House of Commons Library, 8th February 2012, http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06201
39 ‘Could Britain still defend the Falklands?’, BBC News Magazine, 27th February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17157373
40 ‘Complacency over the Falklands could cost Britain dear’, Con Coughlin, Daily Telegraph, 19th January 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9025236/Complacency-over-theFalklands-could-cost-Britain-dear.html
41 ‘Falklands - David Cameron Reveals Security Chiefs Discussed Argentina Tensions’, Huffington Post UK, 18th January 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/18/falklands-david-cameron-national-security-council-argentina_n_1212834.html
42 ‘Falkland Islands stir fresh tensions as war’s 30th anniversary looms’, Nicholas Watt, The Guardian, 18th January 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/18/falkland-islands-argentina-anniversary-war
Argentina’sactionsmeanthatBritishinactionisnot
anoption.DefenceministerArturoPuricelliraisedthe
prospectofarmedconflict,tellinganArgentineradio
station:““WhattheBritishhavegottounderstand
isthatwetoleratethemintheFalklandsbutifany
armedEnglishforceinvadesArgentineterritory,
havenodoubtwewillexerciseourlegitimateright
toself-defenceandwehavethecapacitytodoso.”
GiventhatArgentinaregardstheFalklandsandthe
surroundingareasas‘Argentineterritory’,thiscouldbe
interpretedasaverybroadthreat.43
Argentina’sdiplomaticcampaigncontinues.
FernandezdeKirchnerhasinvitedleadersfromSouth
America’sUnionofSouthAmericanNations(UNASUR)
bloctojoinherinUshaiaon2ndAprilataceremony
markingthe30thanniversaryoftheArgentine
invasionoftheFalklands.44On25thFebruary,a
specialsessionoftheforeignaffairscommitteesof
thetwohousesoftheArgentinecongresswasheld,
atwhichacross-partygroupunanimouslyagreed
the‘Ushuaiadeclaration’assertingthe“legitimate
andimprescriptibleArgentinesovereigntyoverthe
Malvinas,SouthGeorgiaandSouthSandwichand
adjoiningmaritimespacesIslands”andcondemning
the“persistentcolonialistandmilitaristicattitude
oftheUKintheSouthAtlantic”.45TheArgentine
43 ‘We’re ready for Falklands war says Argentina’, Macer Hall, 9th February 2012, http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/300965/
44 ‘Argentina Bars Carnival Ships From Docking’, Alejandro Madril, Huffington Post, 27th February 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/27/argentina-cruises-falklands_n_1304545.html
45 ‘Argentine all-party lawmakers group ratify Malvinas sovereignty claim in Ushuaia’, MercoPress, 26th February 2012, http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/26/argentine-all-
governmentisalsonowseekingnotjusttoblockade
theFalklands,buttotargettheUKasawhole
economically,withindustryministerDeboraGiorgi
urgingArgentinecompaniestostopimportingBritish
goods.46
Inthefaceofsuchattemptsatintimidation,itisright
fortheBritishgovernmenttocontinuetodemonstrate
thatitis‘businessasusual’intheFalklands.David
Willetts,theuniversitiesminister,visitedtheFalklands
inFebruaryenroutetotheBritishAntarcticSurvey.47MPsfromthedefenceselectcommitteearedue
tovisittheFalklandsinMarch,whichhassparked
predictableangerfromArgentina.48Thereislittle
theUKcandowhichwouldnotbeinterpretedas
a‘provocation’bytheArgentinegovernment.Itis
rightthatsuchvisits,whichareentirelylegitimate
andnormalinBritishterritoryandshouldbeofno
concerntoArgentina,shouldcontinueunimpeded.
Furtherdiplomaticandeconomicpressureinthis30th
yearsincetheFalklandsWarandinfutureyearsis
tobeexpected.TheUKmustretainthewillandthe
capabilitytodefendtheFalklandIslandsandtherights
oftheislanders,alone.
party-lawmakers-group-ratify-malvinas-sovereignty-claim-in-ushuaia
46 ‘Falklands dispute: Argentina “urges UK import ban”’, BBC News, 29th January 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-17200528
47 ‘Argentina does not pose threat to Falklands, says Philip Hammond’, Robert Winnett, Daily Telegraph, 21st February 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9094677/Argentina-does-not-pose-threat-to-Falklands-says-Philip-Hammond.html
48 ‘MPs to visit Falklands amid UK tensions with Argentina’, BBC News, 15th February 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17039197
© 2012 The Henry Jackson Society. All rights reserved.http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org
About the authorPeter Cannon is an Associate Fellow at the HJS. Peter studied a BSc in Government and History and an MA in the History of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He has worked for the Shadow Justice Secretary and for a public affairs consultancy. He currently works for a Conservative MP in Parliament, and is also a local councillor in Dartford, Kent.