ARE WE WINNING?

What is the FIGHT? Who is the ENEMY?

Alan Rodgers

“Wazee” Limited

East Africa

IF, THE CBT FIGHT IS:

• Using CBT to become the engine of rural growth and poverty alleviation?

• Using CBT to become the mechanism to maintain natural resources (WILDLIFE) on communal lands that are important for conservation (dispersal areas, corridors, high wildlife value areas)?

• THEN NO, WE ARE NOT WINNING

THE ENEMY - ENEMIES

• “Who” or “What” do we need to overcome to increase our chances of winning?

• THE MAIN PROBLEMS are

RURAL POVERTY and (linked)LOSS OF CONSERVATION HABITAT

ROOT CAUSES BEHIND THESE are….

Underlying Problems / Barriers

1. Lack of political will for change

2. Wrong policies, laws (IMPLEMENTATION)

3. Corruption (drives 1,2) Perverse Incentives

4. EXTERNALITIES (Dave Yesterday)

5. Awareness of Options Opportunity (see 2)

6. POPULATION GROWTH affects Options

7. Economics (CBT is not BEST everywhere)

STATISTICS• Tanzania Population 2007 = 39.7 mill 2050 = 76.8 mill• Rate of urbanisation is 3.5 %Where will 400,000 tourists go? (yesterday)Where will 30 million Tanzanians go?How much wildlife is enough? How much

do WE want? (Elephants eating crops, lions eat cows, hyaenas eating children)

Dave’s talk yesterday – successes near BIG NPs, GRs; BUT failing in isolated sites

ISSUES FROM YESTERDAY

• Lack of statistics on CBT (on successes, on failures) NO ABILITY TO ADVOCATE!

LACK OF RELIABILITY OF STATISTICS

“CBT is peanuts out of cake of 800 m$”

• Visions, Strategies, Policies, President Promises BUT IMPLEMENTATION?

• WHY is Tourism policy not explicit on CBT

• (But Forestry!.......................)

YESTERDAY

We had GREAT discussion from • PRIVATE SECTOR (who are dependent?)• NGOs (conservation, human rights), LAW (wow!)• Practitioners gave case histories,• BUT WHERE WAS THE BOTTOM LINE

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMICS?• WHERE WAS LAND-USE? • Tanzanian Paradox EMPOWERMENT and

DECENTRALISATION, BUT THE CENTRE JUST WILL NOT LET GO! (Why? Who loses what?)

TYPOLOGYGorilla tourism is looking at gorillas

Community tourism is NOT looking at communities

• WE NEED DEFINITIONS Huge difference in types of CBT discussed yesterday!

• Other sectors we have “scales of activity”

• Small Scale Farmers

• Small Scale Mining

• Small and Medium Enterprise (SME)

• Why not “Small Scale Tourism”?

Ali Kaka’s Provoking Comment

• Help communities to do tourism business

• Reality - this IS Growing in Tanzania:

• Huge array of Eco-tourism at eg Mto Mbu

• Your hated competition (Fly-Catchers!!)

• The range of products, services etc grows

• NEED MORE SUPPORT, Training, Capacity, Partnership, Access to Credit

Cultural Tourism(Eco-Tourism)

• There is Cultural Tourism; in EA we have: Batwa, Maasai, Coastal Groups. (Limited?)

• Cultural Tourism is both history (Olduvai, Kilwa, Gedi) and life style tourism (niche based)

• Cultural Conservation –Kenya Coastal Kayas • Cultural Tourism growing? SNV support? But –

There is concern – Capacity, Marketing etc • Cultural Tourism is often an add on to other

forms of tourism, and should be encouraged

Natural Resource BasedGovt Land, Private Land, Community Land

• Community Hand-outs (ICD) (eg TANAPA CC 20%)

• Community Employed (Eg RH Village Game Scouts)

• Community Partnership (Eg Dorobo in Maasai Steppe)

• Community Owned - Driven (Eg what Dorobo is transforming

towards – slow evolution)

Change

My Talk was supposed to be…• “Getting the Economic and Ecological

Incentives right, so to drive CBT”.• Long time getting there, but need to get

the context correct• OF KEY INTEREST to TNRF and most

of you – is the Conservancy type of CBT, with communities increasingly driving the partnership with the private sector, on community land (we are in Arusha – not Mpanda, so our interest is in RANGE land, not miombo).

Move to Ecological Issues

• AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY says in latest issue, that: “Despite the most comprehensive PA system in Africa, most ungulate populations in most regions of Tanzania are DECLINING SIGNIFICANTLY”

• Kenyan statistics show 60% decrease SHOCK HORROR• Agriculturalists say “We successfully settled 10,000

families on these useless rangelands” (Populations doubling!)

• WORLD REALITY is transformation of grasslands! USA Europe Russia South Africa, Australia.

• CAN WE STOP THIS?

Should we attempt to stop?

• Advise and advocate, SHOW COSTS and BENEFITS, PROVE advantages - DO IT

• BEST LAND USE OPTIONS in terms of win-win (poverty alleviation and targeted conservation). Fred’s “Triple Bottom Line”

• SHOW this in terms of “$$ per hectare returns which are sustainable”

Question of Yesterday:• 50,000$ income for a village? WOW!!!!!!• (Millennium Villages of Sachs etc 140$ per person

per year – finance is no problem!)

• But: WE NEED FURTHER ANALYSIS A) as % of the overall tourism deal? B) as % of the POTENTIAL tourism that could happen? C) as compared to other land-use options? (Maybe 200,000$ from sorghum and beans?)

Compatibility Wildlife – pastoralism YES Wildlife – cultivation >10% NO

How Much $$ is Enough??(Another Question from Yesterday)• Obviously needs to increase (Dorobo

renegotiations yesterday) as populations grow and needs grow!

• Need to out-compete options• Need to be REAL money to REAL people• Schools and dispensaries are all very well

(WHAT ON EARTH are other MINISTRIES doing with 7% growth!!)

• BUT PEOPLE NEED CASH in pocket (MNG)

DATA-SETS

• Flagship Olosokwan (WHY do we still use 2003/4 data? IF important UPDATE!!)

• In the north - around high value assets• Olosokwan 90,000$• Ngare Sero (AW) 50,000$ (growing)• Further Away - more difficult to market, less WL - Steppe (Dorobo) 20,000$ +DIFFERENT - Tsetse fly miombo eg Mlele Hunting

add-ons ? 3,000$ pa per village (significant)(Daudi yesterday said “Lots of contracts these

days” – PLEASE ASSEMBLE INFORMATION)

IS THIS SUCCEEDING IN CONSERVING RESOURCES?

• Olosokwan – YES! (but in future?)• Lolkisale ? We still lose wildebeste etc• Natron – big immigration (RH in Maswa fixed the

Immigration problem - 17 years support does have value!)

• TRANSLATE the incentives to real land-use byelaws, approved by District. PREVENT things

• Register Conservancies as (as what? See WMA issue below) Private Bodies Corporate?

BIG PICTURE CONSERVATION

• Tanzania has prioritised conservation into core Protected Areas (eg Tarangire, SNP)

• BUT, these ENGINES of NATIONAL GROWTH are not fully sustainable:

• TNP future depends on Simanjiro Lolkisale

• SNP some dependence on Loliondo, Mara

• Manyara, Natron etc etc all need their peripheral dispersal areas (MVP areas)

IF 17% GNP is TOURISM –HOW MUCH DO WE INVEST IN SECURING TOURISM BASE?

• Lessons from Kenya are frightening!

• Indications here are no better! Short term gain overrides long term sustainability.

• Huge antagonism to open communal (wildlife rich) rangelands! – move to privatise and sedentarise! Move to make rain more equitable first!!

Whose Wildlife? The law says the “STATE” owns it! But the reality? MOST wildlife is not on state land!

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#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

Terat

Sukuro

Komolo

Emboret

Minjingu

Makuyuni

Lolkisale

Loibor Soit

Loibor Serrit

Lake Manyara

LakeBurungi

Tarangire National Park

Lolkisale GameControlled Area

20 0 20 40 60 KilometersN

Zebra & Wildebeest location%

Village#Y

River

Zebra and wildebeest locationsobtained from radio-tracking 1995-97(OIKOS 1999).

#

Simanjiro Plains

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

;

;

;

#Y

#Y

Minjingu

Makuyuni

TarangireNational Park

Lake Manyara National Park

Manyara Ranch

Kibaoni

Lake Manyara

MaguguSukuro

Emboret

Esilalei

Lolkisale

Loibor Soit

Naitolia Camp

Tree Tops Lodge

Boundary Hill Lodge

;Porini Camp

Lake Burungi

10 0 10 20 Kilometers

N

Tourist Camp;

Village#Y

Manyara Ranch

Lolkisale GCA

Main road

Swamp

Lake

Major river

Lolkisale Conservation Area

Naitolia Concession Area

Makuyuni Elephant Area

Lolkisale livestock & wildlife zone

Emboreet Tourism Concession Area

Conservation Areas

Conservation Benefits:

135,000 AcresSet Aside by

LolkisaleVillage

WHAT STOPS GOVERNMENT FROM INVESTING IN (eg

Promoting) CONSERVANCIES? • Namibia does (HUGELY)• Zimbabwe did, Kenya does somewhat,

Uganda would like to (but..)• WHY ARE WE NOT SUPPORTING THIS?• Tz policies say so, but implementation of

policies are very different.• WINNERS and LOSERS!

ECONOMIC INCENTIVES -Incentives for whom to do what?

• Flow of Money - Who benefits?

• Daudi told of his overstepping District

• Olosokwan, huge District jealousy

• The role of rich landowners with cultivation

(cf with Zimbabwe and Campfire)

• Role of Village Chairmen and Councils

• Very complex institutional situation

TANZANIA TWIN TOURISM PARADOX

Hunting versus Viewing • Supposedly both fostering CBT, both using

wildlife outside core PAs to support communities and conserve wildlife. BUT

• HUNTING is driven by DSM – Wildlife HQ; with one set of Private Sector players!

• VIEWING is driven by villages / NGOs, with a different set of Private Sector players!

• Different sets of finance flows in each case!• Conflict over land (eg Sinya case of yesterday!) • NO CONFLICT IN MLELE etc etc But Arusha?

AND HERE COME THE WMAs• Put yourself in DSM, in Wildlife Division – WMAs

are a way to maintain control of situation whilst supposedly empowering communities!

• Scale-up ONE WMA with ?? >10 villages, so villages lose control of land-use and of finances (Olosokwan opposition to WMA)

• Director Wildlife maintains FINAL decision on land-use and contracts in a WMA, (and allocates hunting block allocations) and determines WHAT finances will return to communities

• And all this to be put in law? CLEVER!!

IF THERE IS CONFLICT

• Where do you think that Wildlife HQ will put their weight? Villages or DSM hunts?

• If there is conflict – which OLD contracts will be maintained or cancelled as non-compatible? Viewing or Hunting?

• Do we see INCENTIVES for local people in new approaches?

• (Look at Wildlife 20% record from trophy fees over past 15 years! Ask the Districts!

BEGINNING TO CONCLUDE..The future is NOT looking too good!

• We cannot fully advocate CBT as we do not have the economic analyses.

• Forces of Population Growth are outstripping our ability to influence land-use

• Have not translated conservancies into formal local legislation

• Have not tested law on paramountcy of Acts • Have not really known how to deal with WMA

processes! This is VERY WORRYING • We have not prioritised our interventions

CBT

• Insert into Policy (ALL Policies from Tourism to SME financing!) And into Programmes

• Demonstrate Financial Successes in Mkukuta terms and indicators

• Link finances to conservation gains (lessons from yesterday)

• Continue to invest in capacity (villagers become more sophisticated)

• Put CBT on the overall political agenda• Invest in Small Scale Tourism (entrepreneurs)

INVEST IN NETWORKS

• TNRF a great start PARTNERSHIPS

• More of today’s interactions (Forum WG)

• Formalise the Conservancies and Network Conservancies, PUBLICIZE

• Coastal CBT Association is starting (Rose Kalemera and co).

• Do the same here – GIVE people a voice.

It is a Great Photograph, but next year? No Zebra or Wildebeeste!