are there indefeasible epistemic rules? · section 3 explains the indefeasibility view, and section...
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volume19,no.3 january2019
Are There Indefeasible
Epistemic Rules?
Darren BradleyUniversity of Leeds
© 2019 DarrenBradleyThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License. <www.philosophersimprint.org/019003/>
1. Introduction
Whatifyourpeerstellyouthatyoushoulddisregardyourperceptions?Worse,whatifyourpeerstellyoutodisregardthetestimonyofyourpeers?Howshouldwerespondifwegetevidencethatseemstoun-dermineourepistemicrules?Severalphilosophershavearguedthatepistemicrulesareindefeasible.Iwillarguethatallepistemicrulesaredefeasible.Theresultisakindofepistemicparticularism,accordingtowhichtherearenosimplerulesconnectingdescriptiveandnormativefacts. Iwillarguethatthistypeofparticularismismoreplausibleinepistemologythaninethics.Theresultisanunwieldyandpossiblyin-finitelylongepistemicrule—anUber-rule.IwillarguethattheUber-ruleappliestoallagents,butisstilldefeasible—onemaygetmislead-ingevidenceagainstitandrationallylowerone’scredenceinit.
Section 2 explains the problem of undermining and three possi-bleresponses.Section3explainstheindefeasibilityview,andsection4 argues against it. Section 5 argues against contributory rules, andSection6containsthecoreofthepositiveproposal,arguingthattheproblemcanbesolvedbyunderstandingepistemicrulesashedged.Section7developstheproposalusingageneralizationoftheconceptofadmissibleevidence.Section8extendsanddefendstheresultingposition—wheretheonlyunhedgedruleisasingleUber-rule.Section9comparesourpositiontoQuineanholism.Section10concludes.
2. The Problem of Undermining and Three Responses
InthissectionIwillexplaintheproblemofundermining,andthere-sponsethatepistemicrulesareindefeasible.InthenextsectionIwillarguethatthisresponseisadhoc.
Considersomeepistemicrulesthathavebeendiscussedinthere-centliterature:
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Third,thenormativeconceptsintheconsequentshouldbeunder-stoodintheepistemicsense,asopposedtothepragmaticoranyothersense.Forexample,ifyouareoffered$1mtobelieveinGod,thereisasenseinwhichyououghttobelieveinGod.Iamnotconcernedwiththispragmaticsenseof‘should’.
Fourth, thenormative concepts in the consequent shouldbeun-derstoodasrelativetotheagent’ssituation.Thereisasenseof‘ought’inwhichyououghttobelievepiffpistrue.5Thereisalsoasenseof‘ought’inwhichyououghttobelievepiffpisjustifiedinyoursitua-tion.ItisthislattersensewhichIwilluse.6
Fifth,Itake‘defeasible’tomean‘canberationallydoubted’.Sixth,Iwillcallruleslikethese“simple”todistinguishthemfrom
thecomplicatedUber-ruleIwilldefendinsections6and7.Seventh, the antecedents contain specific positive claims about
agents’states,butdonotcontaintotalityfactse.g. ‘theagenthasnootherperceptions/testimony’.
Ourproblemisthatitiseasytogeneratecaseswherenarrow-scoperulesconflictorunderminethemselves.Foranexampleinethics,sup-poseacrazedmurdererasksyouwheretheirtargetis.Theprinciplenottolieconflictswiththeprincipletopreventothersfromcomingtoharm.7Foranexampleinepistemology,supposeatablelooksredbutyouaretoldthatitisblue.PerceptionconflictswithTestimony.
Theepistemologyliteraturehasfocussedoncaseswherearuleisself-undermining.Startwithacaseofpeerdisagreement:
Supposethatyouandafriendindependentlyevaluateafactualclaim,basedonthesamerelevantevidenceandarguments.Youbecomeconfidentthattheclaimistrue.Butthenyoufindoutthatyourfriend—whosejudgmentyourespect—hasbecomejustasconfidentthattheclaimisfalse.Shouldthatnewsatallreduceyourconfidencein
5. SeeFassio(20182.b.)fordiscussionofthetruthnormofbelief.
6. Hedden2012p.344.
7. ThisisaproblemforKantianethics.SeeTimmerman(2013).
TestimonyIfanagent’ssituation1includestestimonythatx,thentheagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx.(CompareElga[2007],Titelbaum[2015].)
Perception If an agent’s situation includes a perceptionthatx,thentheagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx. (Compare Chisholm [1966], Huemer [2000], Pryor[2000],Boghossian[2008].)2
Credence-chance linkIfanagent’ssituationincludesfullbe-liefthatthechanceofxisy%,thentheagentisrationallyrequiredtohavecredenceinxofy%.(CompareLewis’s[1980]PrincipalPrinciple.)3
Let me make some clarificatory comments about these rules. First,these rules have descriptive (bywhich Iwillmean non-normative)conceptsintheantecedentandnormativeconceptsintheconsequent,makingthemnarrow-scoperules.4
Second,thesupervenienceofthenormativeonthenon-normativeentailsthattherewillbesomesuchnarrow-scoperules.Onecantakethemtobegroundingprinciples.
1. Theterm‘situation’isusedbymostauthorsinthisliterature.Titelbaumoffersadefinitionof‘situation’:“Iwillassumeonlythatwhateverthetruetheoryofrationalityis,itmayspecifycertainaspectsofanagent’scircumstancesasrelevanttodeterminingwhichoverallstatesarerationallypermittedtoher.Takentogether,theserelevantaspectscomprisewhatI’llcalltheagent’s‘situ-ation.’”Itakeitthisiscompatiblewithallauthors’usages.
2. It is controversialwhether this rule requires a different treatment, as howthingslookisnotapsychologicalattitude.Ithinksimilarruleswillstillholdfornon-attitudinalpsychologicalstates,butitwon’tmatterformyarguments.
3. Lewis formulated thePrincipalPrinciple in termsof conditional epistemicprobabilitiese.g.Cr(A|KnownchanceofA isxandE)=x,and Idonotintend todiverge fromthisversion. Ihaveusedaconditional toshowthesimilaritytotheotherrules.Moreonthisinsection7.
4. Narrow-scoperuleshavetheform[ifpthenyououghttobelieveq].Awide-scope rule would have the form ‘you ought to believe [if p then q]’. SeeBroome(1999).
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without believing Testimony. So Elga’s argument against TestimonyimplicitlyassumesthatrationalagentsareneverAkratic.
Although I’ve no interest in defending anti-Akrasia, I thinkAnti-Akrasiaisplausible,andthatwecannotblockElga’sargumentbysim-plyallowingAkrasia.9SoIwillgrantAnti-AkrasiaandblockElga’sar-gumentforadifferentreason.
Returning to themain thread, let’s distinguish three ways of re-sponding to the self-undermining problem. One might ignore col-leaguesandmaintainahighcredenceinTestimony.10Whenitcomestoyourbeliefinbeingconciliatory,youshouldstubbornlyignoreyourcolleagues.Conciliatorinessisindefeasible.Theresultisthatrational-ity haswhat Titelbaum calls “fixed points”—these are propositionsexpressing the rules of rationality, and they are indefeasible. Theseruleshavebuilt-inrestrictionstoensuretheycannotbeundermined,soTitelbaumcallsthem“restrictedrules”.
Asecondresponse,whichIwilldefend,istheviewthatyoushould bemovedbyyourcolleagues.Testimonymightstartoffwithahighprior,butyoucangetevidenceagainstitanddecreaseyourcredence,justlikeanyotherbelief.(Andifyourationallydisbelievethatsomeruleisarequirementofrationality,thenitdoesn’tapplytoyou.)Iwilldevelopthisviewusingthedistinctionbetweenhedged and unhedged
9. SeeHorowitz (2014) for anumberof powerful arguments againstAkrasia.Elga(2010)doesn’tmentionAkrasia;Titelbaum(2015)discussesAkrasiaindetail,butdoesn’tengagewithElga’sargument.Hereisanobjectiontomyview:“Yourpositionisthattherearenosimpleunhedgedrules;asAnti-Akra-siaisasimpleunhedgedrule,howcanyouassumeAnti-Akrasia?”Response:OntheviewIwilldevelop,ifAkrasiaiseverrational,itwillberationalonlyinhighlyunusualcases,e.g.whereyourationallybelievethatanexperttellsyou: ‘pandyoushouldnotbelievep’.This isastrangesituation(compareWorsnip2018p.24),soweshouldexpecttobeinastrangebeliefstate.NosuchsituationarisesinthecaseElgadiscusses,soIdon’tthinkallowingAkra-siaisagoodwaytoblockElga’sargument.(NotethattherulesIdiscussarenarrow-scopeepistemicrules,whileAnti-Akrasiaisawide-scopecoherencerequirement[Worsnip2018].)Thankstoarefereeforpressingthispoint.
10. Elga(2010)andTitelbaum(2015)defendthistypeofapproach.Elgawrites:“[O]neshouldbemovedbydisagreementaboutsomesubjectmatters,butnotaboutdisagreementitself…”(p.184).
thedisputedclaim?Conciliatoryviewsondisagreementanswer“yes.”(Elga2010p.175)
Elga(2007) initiallydefendedaconciliatoryview.Forsimplicity,wecanconsiderthemostextremeconciliatoryview:
Testimony Ifanagent’s situation includes testimony thatx,thentheagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx.
ButElgafoundthatmanyofhiscolleaguesdisagreedwithhim.Elgawrites:
Suppose that youhave a conciliatory viewondisagree-ment, but you find out that your respected [colleague]disagrees.Hehasarrivedatacompetingview(aboutdis-agreement),andtellsyouallaboutit.Ifyourconciliatoryviewiscorrect,youshouldchangeyourview.Youshouldbe pulled part way toward thinking that your friend isright.Inotherwords,yourviewondisagreementrequiresyoutogiveupyourviewondisagreement.(p.179)
SoTestimony looksunstable: ifElga receives testimonyagainstTes-timony, andappliesTestimony,hemustgiveupTestimony.8Concil-iatory views sometimes call for their own rejection.This is the self-underminingproblem.
There is an important implicit premise in Elga’s argument weshouldmakeclear–Anti-Akrasia.
Anti-Akrasia:Itisneverrationaltobelieve[xandIshouldnotbelievex]
WithoutAnti-Akrasiaarationalagentcouldbelievetestimony(i.e.be-lievex ifsomeonetellsyoux)andalsobelievethatoneshouldnotbelievetestimony.Theformeristhelower-levelbeliefx;thelatterisahigher-levelbeliefaboutbeliefs.TheagentwouldfollowTestimony
8. SeeElga2010p.181–2andTitelbaum2015p.271.
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Hedged Unhedged
Absolute Me,Holton?Väyrynen?
Sections6,7and8
Elga,Lasonen-Aarnio,
Titelbaum.
Sections3and4
Contributory Endofsection6 Ross,Christensen?
Section5
Iargueagainstcontributory rules insection5. Iwilldefendhedgedrulesinsections6and7.InthenexttwosectionsIwillexplainandthenargueagainstrestrictedrules.
3. Restricted Rules
Elga (2010) defends the first option—restriction—arguing that weneedtomakeamodificationtoTestimonytomake it immunefromdefeat. Titelbaum (2015) builds on this and suggests that epistemicruleshavethefollowingform:13
Restricted Testimony: Ifanagent’ssituationincludestesti-mony that x, the agent is rationally required tobelievethatx—unless14xcontradicts[Testimony15].
IfxcontradictsTestimony,thenignorexandcontinuebe-lievingothertestimony.16
13. Titelbaum doesn’t actually defend Restricted Testimony. His point is thatepistemicrulesmusthavethisform,whatevertheyturnouttobe.
14. ‘Unless’means‘ifnot’.Roughly,ifthereisnocontradiction,thenbelievetes-timony.Noticethissaysnothingaboutwhattodoifthereisacontradiction.That’swhyweneedthenextline.
15. Theoriginal textsays “this rule”. Iassume ‘this rule’ refers toTestimony. Itwon’tmattermuchif itreferstoRestrictedTestimony.Iarguethatholdingsuchrulestobeindefeasibleisadhoc,whatevertheirexactcontentis.
16. I’ve added “If x contradicts Testimony, then ignore x and continue believ-ing other testimony.” Titelbaum isn’t explicit about how to respond if x
rules.11Hedged ruleshave ceteris paribus clauses, stating situationswhere the rule fails to apply;one such situation iswhereyou ratio-nallydisbelievethatsomeruleisarequirementofrationality.Iwillar-guethatrulesofrationalityarehedged—onecanalwaysgetevidenceagainstthembeingrequirementsofrationality.Theresultisthatthereareno“fixedpoints”,norulesthatrationalagentsshouldalwaysbe-lievetoberequirementsofrationality—allaredefeasible.
Athirdresponseisalsoworthdiscussing.ThereisadifferentwaytoweakenTestimony,suggestedbyChristensen(2010,2013).12Distin-guishabsoluteandcontributory rules.Absoluteruleshaveaconsequentthatsaysthatyouarerequiredtobeinsomestate,ortoperformsomeaction;contributoryruleshaveaconsequentthatsaysthatyouhavea reasontobeinsomestate,ortoperformsomeaction.Appliedtoepis-temology,absoluterulessaywhatyoushould(orshouldnot)believe,whereascontributoryrulessaywhatcountsinfavourof(oragainst)abelief.Testimonyisanabsoluterule;butconsideracontributoryver-sionofTestimony:
Contributory Testimony:Ifanagent’ssituationincludestes-timonythatx,thentheagenthasa reasontobelievethatx.
Paradoxisavoidedbecauseonecanhaveareasontobelievexandareasonnottobelievex.ButIwillrejectcontributoryrulesduetocasesof“valence-switching”,i.e.wherewhatisusuallyareasonforbecomesareasonagainst.
Hereisamapofthemainpositions,thesectionsinwhichtheyarediscussed and (tentative) suggestions forwhere somephilosophersmightbeplaced:
11. SeeHolton2002;Väyrynen2006,2009;Schroeder2004section5.
12. SeeDancy(2013section1).Christensen’s(2010p.203–4;2013p.92–3)talkof“ideals”couldbeunderstoodastalkofunhedgedcontributoryrules.Hisearlierwork(e.g.2007)suggeststhatthereisaresidualbad-makingfeatureofviolatingideals/rules,inwhichcasetheruleswouldnotbecontributory.
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inhercurrentsituation.Anagentcanreflectonhersitu-ationandcometorecognizefactsaboutwhatthatsitua-tionrationallyrequires.Notonlydoesthisreflectionpro-videherwithjustificationtobelievethosefacts;thatjus-tificationisultimatelyempiricallyindefeasible.17(p.276)
Butthisisveryhardtobelieve.Christensen(2013)writes:
Suppose…thatIfollow[ProperlyRestrictedTestimony]and remain absolutely confident in its correctness, de-spite the fact that it’s rejectedbymanyepistemologistsIrespect,andevenrateasmysuperiorsinphilosophicalskill.HowshouldIviewmyownreasoningonthistopic?ShouldI thinkthatwhileI’mgenerallyonlymoderatelyreliable when I think about philosophy, neverthelesswhen I think about arguments for general conciliation,andfornotbeingconciliatoryaboutconciliation,I’mes-peciallyimmunefromerror?Thatseemsextremelydubi-ous.(p.89)
Given the difficulty of formulating rational rules, the claim thatweshouldbecertain,orevenhighlyconfident,ofwhattheyare,eveninthefaceofopposingarguments,seemstomeuntenable.
Furthermore, suppose you do hear testimony against some (cor-rect)ruleofrationality.Titelbaumsuggeststhatyoushouldnotbelievesuchtestimonytoanydegree.Itnaturallyfollowsthatyoushouldnot
17. Titelbaumaddsafootnote,sayingthattherules“couldbeopposedbyempiri-calevidencepointingintheotherdirection….Butthosepropositionaljusti-ficationsareultimatelyindefeasibleinthesensethattheempiricalconsider-ationswillneveroutweighthemandmakeitall-things-consideredrationalfortheagenttoformfalsebeliefsaboutwhathersituationrequires.”Idon’tunderstandthis.Ifempiricalconsiderationscancountagainsttherules,whycan’twe imagine increasingly strong empirical considerations that eventu-allyoutweightherules?Andtherestrictionsheplacesontherulesseemtoensurethatempiricalconsiderationscannotcountagainstrationalrulesatall.Andhislaterclaim(section6)thattheFixedPointThesisleadstotheRightReasonsviewsuggeststhatempiricalevidencecannotcountagainstrationalrules.
RestrictedTestimony cannotundermine itself. It sayswe shouldbe-lievetestimonyonmosttopics,butnotwithregardtothequestionofwhetherweshouldbelievetestimony.ItfollowsthatourcredenceinRestrictedTestimonyshouldstaythesame,eveninthelightofoppos-ingtestimony.Thus,RestrictedTestimonyisindefeasiblebytestimony.
Titelbaum(2015)defendssimilarrestrictionsonallepistemicrules,e.g.:
Restricted Perception:Ifanagent’ssituationincludesaper-ceptionthatx,theagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx—unlessxcontradicts[Perception].(p.273)
Andnotonlycanrulesunderminethemselves—theycanundermineeachother,e.g.youmightbetoldthatyourperceptionisunreliable.ToblockRestrictedTestimonyfromunderminingotherrules,Titelbaumdefends:
Properly Restricted Testimony: If an agent’s situation in-cludestestimonythatx,theagentisrationally…requiredtobelievex—unlessx contradicts [a] truthaboutwhatrationalityrequires.(p.274)
Thisstructureisintendedtogeneralizetoallrules,e.g.:
Properly Restricted Perception: If an agent’s situation in-cludesaperceptionthatx,theagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx—unlessxcontradictsatruthaboutwhatrationalityrequires.
Titelbaumsuggeststhatweshouldhavecredence1intherulesofra-tionality;theyareindefeasible fixed points.Tousehismemorablephrase:mistakesaboutrationalityaremistakesofrationality:
[E]very agent possesses a priori, propositional justifica-tionfortruebeliefsabouttherequirementsofrationality
contradictsTestimony,butIthinkhemustbecommittedtothisline.I’llleavethisimplicitwhennotneeded.
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This isclose tosaying that fundamental rulesare those thatarenotdefeasible.Butthenthequestionis:Whyshouldwethinkthatthereareanysuchrules?IndeedIwillarguethattherearenone.
Elga argues that fundamental rules are dogmatic using the fol-lowingexample:Imagineamagazine,Consumer Reports,consistentlyrating itself as thebest consumermagazine.19When facedwith thecomplaintthatthemagazineisbiasedwhenitrecommendsitself,Elgaendorsesaneditorsaying:
Toputforwardourrecommendationsabouttoastersandcars is to put them forward as good recommendations.Andwecan’tconsistentlydothatwhilealsoclaimingthatcontrary recommendations are superior. So our alwaysratingourselves #1doesnot result fromanarbitraryoradhocexceptiontoourstandards.Weareforcedtorateourselves#1inordertobeconsistentwithourotherrat-ings.(p.185)
ButIthinkthisbringsouttheimportanceofthedistinctionbetweenfundamentalandnon-fundamental rules.Theadviceofa consumermagazineisnotaplausiblecandidatetobeafundamentalrule,anditiseasytoimaginecaseswhereConsumer Reportsallowsthatitsrec-ommendations canbedefeated. Suppose the editor ofConsumer Re-ports knowsthatherrivalmagazinehasalargerbudgetand,asaresult,makesrecommendationsbasedonmoreevidence.Thiseditorshouldrecommend that consumers rate this rivalmagazine’s recommenda-tionsoverthoseofConsumer Reports.Itwouldbeadhocfortheeditortoignoreevidenceagainsthermagazine’srecommendations.
It is only fundamental epistemic rules that are plausibly (non-ad-hocly) indefeasible. Elga needs to argue that there are simple funda-mentalepistemicrules,and,togettheconsequenceshewantsregard-ingthepeerdisagreementdebate,heneedstoarguethatRestricted
19. BasedonLewis(1971).
believeyouhaveany reason,nomatterhowweak,torejectthatruleofrationality.Weareledtotheviewthatwhat seems like evidence doesn’t even count as evidence. Lasonen-Aarnio18 is sympathetic to this view,writingthatit“restsmerelyonadesiretoavoidparadox”(p.342).Butthispositionseemsatleastasparadoxicalasanyofthealternatives.
Sowheredidwegowrong? Iwillargue in thenext section thatElga’s(2010) initialmovetoarestrictiononTestimony—amoveex-tendedbyTitelbaum—wasastepinthewrongdirection.
4. Elga’s Argument for Ubiquitous Indefeasibility
Whenfacedwitharulethatunderminesitself,Elgamodifiestherulesothatitignoresevidencethatthreatenstoundermineitself.Butthislooksadhoc.Whatreasondowehavetobelievethis,otherthanthefactthatitavoidstheunderminingproblem?Afterall,mostofourbe-liefsaresubjecttodoubtinthelightofopposingevidence,sowhyarebeliefsaboutdisagreementdifferent?
Elgaarguesthatall fundamentalepistemicrulesmustbenon-un-derminable.Hewrites:
Inordertobeconsistent,afundamental…rule…mustbedogmaticwithrespecttoitsowncorrectness.(p.185)
Butwhatdoes‘fundamental’meanhere?Elga(2010)writes:
afundamental[rule]isonewhoseapplicationisnotgov-erned…byanyother[rule]….(p.179)
18. “Itmaycomeasasurprise that insomecasesastatecanbeperfectlyepis-temicallyrationalevenifonehaswhatwouldseemlikestrongevidenceforthinkingthatitisnot”(Lasonen-Aarnio2014p.342,italicsadded).Althoughthenextsentencedoesseemtocounttheapparentevidenceasrealevidence.And she then says, “Thatone shouldbelieve thatone shouldn’tφdoesn’tentailthatoneshouldn’tφ”(p.343).SoitseemsLasonen-Aarniodoesacceptthat there is evidenceagainstφ,whichaffectshigher-levelbeliefsbutnotfirst-orderbeliefs,andthussheacceptsAkrasia.
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circumstances,hisdutytosavethechild[outweighs]21hisdutytomeetBetty.(p.256)
Let’ssaythatruleswhichcanbeoutweighedarecontributory.Andwecantakeitthatthedistinguishingfeatureofcontributoryrulesisthatthere is a residual bad-making featurewhen they are not followed,evenwhennotfollowingthemistherightthingtodo(duetoother,weightier rules).22When rules are voided, there is no residual bad-makingfeature.InthissectionIwillargueagainstcontributoryrulesinepistemology.
Inmeta-ethics,contributoryrulesareassociatedwithRoss(1930),whoarguedthatwehavenumerousduties,andwhatweoughttododepends on the overall weighting of these duties. In epistemology,theanalogousview is thatwehavenumerousepistemic reasons tobelieve,andwhatweepistemicallyoughttobelievedependsontheoverallweightofthesereasons.Wecanmakethisexplicitbyweaken-ingtheconsequentofourrules:
Testimony:Ifanagent’ssituationincludestestimonythatx,thentheagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx
to
Contributory Testimony:Ifanagent’ssituationincludestes-timonythatx,thentheagenthasa reasontobelievethatx.
(Assume fornowthat the rule isunhedged.)Thisavoids theunder-miningproblemsabove.Anagentwhohastestimonythatxandaper-ceptionthatnotxhasareasontobelievexandareasontobelievenot x.23No paradox;what they should believe depends on the cor-rectweighingofthesereasons.Andanagentwhodoesn’tbelievethat
21. Frederickuses ‘overridden’but Iprefer ‘outweighed’,whichmakesexplicitthattheystillhaveweight.
22. Schaffer2015p.659.
23. Similarly, testimony against Testimony is compatible with Testimony stillprovidinga reasontobelievetestimony.
Testimony(orsomethingsimilar)isamongthem.20Butnosuchargu-mentsareoffered.SorestrictingTestimonytomakeitindefeasibleisadhocafterall.
Someonemightobjectthatwhatisfundamentalissomeotherrulethat is more complicated than Testimony (and Titelbaum takes nostandonwhatthefundamentalrulesare).Butoncewestartmakingqualifications,weareonthepathtotheUber-ruleandtheviewthatallrulesaredefeasible.ThisisthepathIthinkweshouldbeon.Beforepresentingmypositiveview, Iwillargueinthenextsectionagainstcontributory rules inepistemology. (Thoseuninterested in contribu-toryrulescanskipthenextsectionwithoutlossofcontinuity.)
5. Against Contributory Rules
Distinguishtwotypesofdefeasiblerules—rulescanbeoutweighed,ortheycanbevoided(andpossiblyboth).Frederick(2015)makesthedis-tinctionasfollows:
[N]ormally,ifAlfpromisesBettythathewillmeetherforlunch,AlftherebyacquiresadutytomeetBettyforlunch.However,ifAlf’spromisetoBettywasmadeunderthreatofforce,hispromisefailstoengenderthatduty,becausethecircumstancewasduty-voiding.
Normally, ifAlfhasthedutytomeetBetty for lunch,then he ought tomeet Betty for lunch.However, if onhiswaytomeetBettyheseesachilddrowninginapool,andhecansavethechildwithoutmuchrisktohimself,thenAlfhasadutytosavethechild….IfAlfcannotbothsavethechildandmeetBettyforlunch,hehastwodutieswhichconflict.PerhapsallwouldagreethatAlfoughttosavethechild;buthisdutytomeetBettyremains.Inthe
20.Thisisworthemphasizing.AlthoughElgaisnotexplicitthatconciliationismis a fundamental rule, itmust beone if Elga’s argument that fundamentalrulesareindefeasibleistohaveimplicationsforconciliationism.
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In the basic case, you are standing outside the library,whenyou seeTomGrabit exit,pull abook fromunderhisshirt,cacklegleefully,andscurryoff.ThisgivesyouprettygoodreasontobelievethatTomjuststoleabookfromthelibrary.
Case2 is just the sameas thefirst case, except thatTomhasanidenticaltwin,Tim,fromwhomyoucan’tvi-suallydistinguishhim.Inthiscase,ithasseemedtothejudgmentofmanyphilosophersthatyourvisualevidenceisnotareasontobelievethatTomstoleabook.(p.333–4)
ButSchroederthinksyourvisualevidenceremainsareasontobelievethatTomstoleabook.Todemonstratethis,heextendstheexample:
Considerathirdversionofthecase,exactlyliketheothertwoexceptthatinthethirdcase,inadditiontoTim,Tomhasathird identicalsibling,Tam,fromwhomyoucan’tvisually distinguish him. This third case underwrites acompellingargumentagainsttheintuitivejudgmentthatinthesecondcase,yourvisualevidencewasnoreasontobelievethatTomstolethebook.Forifyougoontocon-clude,inthethirdcase,thatTomstolethebook,thenyouaredoingworsethanifyouhadgoneontoconcludethisinthesecondcase.YourreasontobelievethatTomstolethebookthereforedoesn’tseemtohavegoneawayinthesecondcase;itmerelyseemstohavegottensubstantiallyweaker.(p.334)
Schroederseemstoberightaboutthiscase,wherethedefeaterweak-ensthestrengthofthereason.ButIdon’tseehowhecansaythesameaboutthepreviouscaseinwhichadrugmakesbluethingslookredandredthingslookblue.Inthatcase,thedefeaterchangesthevalenceofthereason,i.e.whatwasareasonforbecomesareasonagainst.Socontributoryrulesarestilltoostrong.
ContributoryTestimonyisarequirementofrationalitystillplausiblyhasareason(aweakone)tobelievetestimony.
Myobjectionisthatcontributoryrulessaythatafeaturethatisareasontobelievexisalwaysareasontobelievex.Anditisplausiblethat insomecasesa feature thatusually isa reasontobelievexbe-comesareasontobelievenotx.Anditisespeciallyplausibleinepis-temologywithregardtoPerception:
[I]nacasewhereI…believethatIhaverecentlytakenadrugthatmakesbluethingslookredandredthingslookblue,theappearanceofared-lookingthingbeforemeisreason forme tobelieve that there is ablue,not a red,thingbeforeme.Itisnotasifitissomereasonformetobelievethatthereissomethingredbeforeme,butthatassuchareasonitisoverwhelmedbycontraryreasons.Itisnolongeranyreasonatalltobelievethatthereissome-thingredbeforeme;indeeditisareasonforbelievingtheopposite.(Dancy2013)
These strongundercutting defeaters24provideanargument for reasons holism:“afeaturethatisareasoninonecasemaybenoreasonatall,oranoppositereason,inanother”(Dancy2004p.7).
TheconsequencehereisthateventhecontributoryversionofPer-ception isrefuted.Therearesituations inwhichtheperceptionofared-lookingthingisno reason at alltobelieveitisred.SimilarexamplesforTestimonycanbedevised,perhapswheretheagentfindsherselfinsidealogicpuzzleontheislandofLiars.Soweshouldrejectcon-tributoryepistemicprinciplesastoostrong.
Schroeder(2011)objectsthatthereisstillareason,justaweakerone.25Heusesthefollowingcase:
24.Undercuttingdefeaters suggest thatone’sground for thebelief isnot suffi-cientlyindicativeofthetruthofthebelief—thegroundherebeingtheexperi-ence.SeePollock1967.
25. Schroeder(2011fn.8)doesnotactuallydenyreasonsholism.Nevertheless,theargumentheofferscanbenaturallyunderstoodasanargumentagainstreasonsholism.
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6. Hedged Rules
Let’srecap.SofarIhavearguedthatitisadhoctoholdthatsimpleepistemicrulesareindefeasible,andthatepistemicrulesarenotcon-tributory.Mypositiveviewis:For any (simple or complex) epistemic rule, rational agents can acquire evidence that it is not a requirement of rationality, causing them to decrease their credence that it is a requirement of rationality. Ifthecredenceislowenough,theruledoesnotapplytotheagent(byAnti-Akrasia).
Let’sconnectthistofamiliarviewsinethics.RecallFrederick’sex-ample: ifAlf’spromise toBettywasmadeunder threatof force,hispromise fails toengender thatduty,because the situationwasduty-voiding.So,startingwithasimpleethicalrule:
ifyoupromisedtop,thenyouarerequiredtop
it isplausible thatyouhaveno reason top if thepromisewasmadeunderduress.Thesimpleethicalrulecanbevoided.Inordertoallowforthis,weneedthefullruletobe:
ifyoupromisedtop,thenyouarerequiredtop,unlessthepromisewasmadeunderduress.
We’llsaythatthefullruleishedged.28
Inepistemology,usingtheexampleofPerception,abetterspecifi-cationoftheruleswouldmoveusfrom:
28.This idea has been suggested inmeta-ethics byHolton (2002) andHorty(2007).Hortywrites that “thegeneralprinciple that lying iswrongshouldbe taken tomean simply that lying iswrongbydefault—that is, to afirstapproximation,thatoncewelearnthatanactioninvolveslying,weoughttojudgethat it iswrong,unlesscertaincomplicatingfactors interfere”(p.23).Holtonsuggests thatethical rulesneed ‘That’s it’clausesstating that therearenoother ethically relevant features, e.g. ‘Anyaction thathas such-and-suchfeaturesandThat’sIt iswrong’.Onechoice-pointhereiswhetherthehedgelistsamanageablenumberofexceptions(e.g.‘underduress’)orisaplace-holderforanopen-endedlistofexceptions(e.g.‘andtherearenootherrelevantnormativefeatures’).Thisisthetopicofsection8.SeeField(2000p.135andAppendix)forrelatedpoints.
Furthermore,amotivationforwantingcontributoryreasonineth-icsdoesnotapplytoepistemology.Astrongmotivationforcontribu-toryreasonsinethicsisaneedforoutweighedreasons.Dancywrites:
Scanlon[whoistakentorejectcontributoryrules26]has…deprivedhimselfoftheideaofadefeatedreason,andthereby prevented himself even from addressing thequestionwhattheappropriateresponseistosuchathing.Normallywewouldspeakof regretand residualduties,but if all conflict is, as Scanlon suggests,merely appar-ent, there arenodefeated [outweighed] considerationscapableofdemandingregret,andnothingtogeneratearesidualduty.27(Dancy2004p.26)
The idea that contributory reasons keep their force even when de-featedismostplausibleinethics,especiallyifwethinkofourethicalsystemasconsistinginduties.Ourdutiesremaineveniftheyarede-featedbyotherduties.Yourdutynottolieremains,evenifyouhaveastrongerdutytosavealifebylying.
By contrast, our epistemic duties do not seem to have the samepowertoremainevenifdefeated.Forexample,supposeyouseeared-lookingtable inasituationwhereyouknowyouhavetakenadrugthatmakesbluethingslookredandredthingslookblue.Youdon’tbelieve that the table is red.Do you regret that youhavenot liveduptoyourepistemicdutytobelievethingsareastheyappeartobe?Surelynot.Asignaturefeatureofaviolationofacontributoryruleisthatitinvolvesaresidualbad-makingfeature.Buttheredoesn’tseemtobeanythingbadaboutbelievingthetableisblue.Sothecontribu-toryviewlookstobeunmotivatedinepistemology.Sotherejectionofcontributoryrulesismoreplausibleinepistemologythaninethics.
26. IamneutralonwhetherthisisagoodinterpretationofScanlon.
27. This argument is central to Dancy’s position. He later (p. 28–9) rejectsHolton’sPrincipledParticularismforthesamereason.
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response,Isuggestthattheagentcanmovestraighttoastablestateinwhich E has higher credence than before and that-Perception-is-a-requirement-of-rationality-in-this-situationhaslowercredencethanbefore.
Sosituationswhererulesappear toconflictare in factsituationswheretherulesareincompletelyspecified.Thisavoidsthesmellofadhoccery—wearenotassertingthatrulesareimmunetoconflictingev-idence;weareplacinglimitsonwhentheruleapplies,amovewhichis familiar inethicsandphilosophyofscience.31 It isalsofamiliar inepistemology—itisthestrategysuggestedbyLewis(1980)regardingobjectivechancewhichIdevelopinthenextsection.
7. Two Types of Inadmissibility
Let’sstartwithasimplecredence-chancelink:
Credence-Chance Link:Ifanagent’ssituationincludesfullbeliefthatthechanceofpisx,thentheagentisrationallyrequiredtohavecredenceofpinx.
Thisruledoesnotapplyinallsituations.Anagentcanhaveevidencethatjustifiestheirhavingcredencesthatdifferfromthechances.Callsuch evidence inadmissible. Themost familiar form is evidence thatgivesusdirectinformationabouttheevent.Forexample,ifyouseeafaircoinlandingHeadsinacrystalballyouknowtobereliable,youshouldnothavecredenceof½thatitwilllandHeads.Thisisanoppos-ingdefeater.SotheCredence-ChanceLinkshouldbehedged.Indeed,LewisdefendedahedgedversionoftheCredence-ChanceLink—thePrincipalPrinciple(PP),ofwhichwe’lluseasimplifiedversion:32
31. CompareCartwight(1983),PietroskiandRey(1995).
32. Precisely,itsays:“LetCbeanyreasonableinitialcredencefunction.Lettbeanytime.Letxbeanyrealnumberintheunitinterval.LetXbetheproposi-tionthatthechance,attimet,ofA’sholdingequalsx.LetEbeanyproposi-tioncompatiblewithXthatisadmissibleattimet.ThenC(AIXE)=x”(p.266).Thisbrings invarious featureswhicharen’t relevant toour concerns.Onethat isworthmentioning is thatLewis’s rule requires that agentsnotonlyhavecredencesthatmatchtheknownchances,butalsoupdateinsuchaway
Perception: If an agent’s situation includes a perceptionthatx,thentheagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx
to
Hedged Perception:Ifanagent’ssituationincludesapercep-tionthatx,thentheagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx,unlesstheyhaveevidenceagainstPerception.29
WhatifanagentdoeshaveevidenceagainstPerception?IsuggestwetakeHedgedPerceptiontoinclude:
IftheyhaveevidenceagainstPerception,30thentheircre-dence thatPerception is a requirementof rationality inthissituationshoulddecrease.
Where there ismoderate evidence that Perception is not a require-mentofrationalityinthissituation,therationalagentmightretainamiddlingcredence thatPerception isa requirementof rationality inthissituation. WherethereisoverwhelmingevidencethatPerceptionisnotarequirementofrationalityinthissituation,therationalagentmightdisbelievethatPerceptionisarequirementofrationalityinthissituation. Assuming Anti-Akrasia, (which links beliefs about the re-quirementsofrationalitywithrequirementsofrationality),itfollowsthatPerceptionisnotarequirementofrationalityinthissituation.Afortiori,Perceptionisnotarequirementofrationalityinallsituations.
A referee objects thatwhere believing E is based on Perception,whichisthenunderminedbyE,thesupportforEvanishes,thustheruleisbelievedagain,andthepositionisdiachronicallyunstable.In
29.NoticethatalthoughHedgedPerceptioncontains‘unless’,itisverydifferentfromTitelbaum’s restricted rules.Restricted rules tell us to ignore evidence thatconflictswiththerules;hedgedrulestellustolowercredenceintherules (inoursituation)whenthereisevidenceunderminingthem.
30.IintendthistocovercaseswheretheevidenceisthatPerceptionfailstoap-plyintheircurrentsituation,andcaseswheretheevidenceisthatPerceptionfailstoapplyinallsituations.
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to have credence of x in p, unless they have evidence-inadmissible-relative-to-the-Credence-Chance-Link, or unless they have evidence-inadmissible-relative-to-the-PP*.
Isuggestthatotherrulesworkthesameway,andthatweneedtogen-eralizethenotionofinadmissibilitytoapplytotheotherrules.
Let’sworkthroughhowthisappliestoTestimony.
Testimony:Ifanagent’ssituationincludestestimonythatx,theagentisrationallyrequiredtobelievethatx.
Like theCredence-ChanceLink, thisneeds tohaveexceptionsbuiltin.Onetypeofexceptionoccurswhentheagenthasotherevidenceagainstx.Perhaps theagenthasdirectly seen thatx is false; this isanopposingdefeater.Adifferent typeof exceptionwouldbe if theagentrationallybelievesthatthepersontestifyingisunreliable;thisisanundercuttingdefeater.OrsupposeanapparentlyreliableagenttellsthemthatTestimonyisfalse;thisisamoregeneralundercuttingdefeater,relevanttoothertestifierstoo.Callevidencethatjustifiesanagent innotbelieving testimony inadmissible-relative-to-Testimony.SoTestimonyshouldbehedgedasfollows:
Hedged Testimony: If an agent’s situation includes tes-timony that x, then the agent is rationally requiredto believe that x, unless they have evidence that is inadmissible-relative-to-Testimony.
Mutatismutandisforothersimpleepistemicrules(includingHedgedTestimony).Thus,Isuggestthatallsimpleepistemicrulesarehedged.
Theunderminingproblemsdisappear,astheproblemcasesdescribedsituationswheretheagentdoeshaveevidenceinadmissibletosomerule,sotheagenthaslowcredencethattheruleisarequirementofrationality,sobyAnti-Akrasia(whichlinksbeliefsabouttherequire-mentsofrationalitywiththerequirementsofrationality),theruledoesnotapply.34Wehavearrivedatmyviewthatepistemicruleswillbe
34.Objection: Our hedged simple rules will almost never apply. Hedged
PP If an agent’s situation includes full belief that thechance of p is x, then the agent is rationally requiredto have credence of p in x,unless they have inadmissible evidence.
Butthereisasecondtypeofinadmissibleevidencethathasnotbeendiscussed in the objective chance literature—theCredence-ChanceLinkcanhaveundercuttingdefeaters.Theremightbeevidencethatre-ducesyourconfidencethataruleisarequirementofrationality.33Sup-poseanapparently reliableagent tellsyou that chance isnot some-thingwhichyourcredencesshouldmatch.Youmightbeconfusedbysuchastatement,butthisconfusionissurelyenoughtojustifyyourcredences’notperfectlymatchingthechances.SuchevidencereducesconfidenceintheCredence-ChanceLink.
Similarly, supposeanapparently reliableagent tellsyou that thePP is false (i.e. evenwith thehedge). Then you should lower yourcredencethatPP isaruleofrationality.SoPPalsoneedstobehedged.Just as the hedge of theCredence-Chance Link generated the PP,weneedanewprinciplegeneratedbythehedgeofthePP.
Oneway tosystematizeall this is tomake theconceptofadmis-sibilityrelativetoarule.SowecanrestatePPas:
PP*: If an agent’s situation includes full belief thatthe chance of p is x, then the agent is rationally re-quired to have credence of x in p, unless they have evidence-inadmissible-relative-to-the-Credence-Chance-Link.
AndPP*needstobehedgedinturn:
Qualified PP*:Ifanagent’ssituationincludesfullbeliefthatthechanceofpisx,thentheagentisrationallyrequired
that,givenanypossibleadmissibleevidence,theywillcontinuetodoso.Wecouldsetupallourrulesinthesameway,butIwillusethesimplerformula-tion.Thankstox.
33. Suchevidencemostdirectlyreducesyourconfidencethataruleisarequire-mentofrationalityinyoursituation;afortioriitreducesyourconfidencethataruleisarequirementofrationalityinallsituations.
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epistemicrules,thispositionisstilldefensibleasanepistemictheory.SointhenextsectionIwilldefendanUber-rule.
Beforethat,thereisalooseendtotieup.Supposeweaccepthedgedrules—aretheycontributoryorabsolute?Intheethicscase,weused:
Hedged, Absolute: If you promised to p, then you are re-quiredtop,unlessthepromisewasmadeunderduress,etc.
Butthealternativeis:
Hedged, Contributory:Ifyoupromisedtop,thenyouhaveareasontop,unlessthepromisewasmadeunderduress,etc.
The advantage of contributory rules is that they don’t underminethemselvesoreachother;butwehavenoneedofthisadvantagehere,asthehedgecanensurethatthereisnoconflict.Andifthereisnocon-flictingrule,thensurelyapromisetopmeansthatyouarerequiredtop;theHedged,Absoluteruleiscorrect.
Theepistemologycaselookssimilar.
Hedged, Absolute:Ifitlooksred,thenyoushouldbelieveitisred,unlessyourationallybelieveyouhaverecentlytakenadrug,etc.
Hedged, Contributory: If it looksred,thenyouhavearea-sontobelieveitisred,unlessyourationallybelieveyouhaverecentlytakenadrug,etc.
ThestrongerHedged,Absolute rule looksplausible, so I tentativelyendorseit.
8. For the Uber-rule
SofarIhavearguedthatthelinkbetweendescriptiveandnormativeconceptscanbedescribedonlybyatapestryofinterlockinghedged
notthesimpleruleswithwhichwebegan,butcomplexrulesfullofhedges.
Dancy(2004)attributesananalogousviewtoScanlon(1998):35
Scanlon’s view… seems to be that… there are no ac-tualconflicts,onlyappearancesofconflict.Iftwoofour[rules]seemtogetineachother’sway,whatthisshowsisthatatleastoneofthemisincompletelyspecified,andthematter isresolvedbyamorecompletespecification.Supposewe[canhelpsomeoneinneedatthecostofkill-ingsomeoneelse].36Theideahereisthatinaproperun-derstandingofthe[rule]thatrequiresustohelpthoseinneed,therewouldprobablybeincludedanexceptiontothatdutyforallcaseswheretohelponewehavetokillanother.Properlyunderstood,therefore,thedutytohelpcannotconflictwiththedutynottokill.(p.25)
But a new danger emerges if the complexity spirals out of control.Startingwithsimplerules,cantheexceptionsbefinitelystated?Ideally,wewouldliketohavefiniteexceptions,asthiswouldallowamanage-ablesetofrulesthatcouldbeusedtoguideourdeliberation.
I don’t know if this is possible, so Iwill concede the point, anddefendthepossibility that theexceptionsareopen-ended.The ideaisthat,evenifweareleftwithaninfinitelistofexceptionstosimple
Perceptionmightstart:“Ifitlookslikep,thenbelievep,unlessyouhaverea-sontodistrustyourvisionor….”Anyonewhohaseverexperiencedanillu-siondoeshavesomesuchreason.Thispointiscorrect—hedgedsimplerulesmight rarelyapply toanyactualpeople—but this isnotaproblem.Again,comparethePrincipalPrinciple.Lewisformulatedittoapplyonlytoinitialcredencefunctions,soitdoesnotapplytoanyrealpeople.Nevertheless,itis(ifcorrect)asubstantiveandinformativeruleofrationality.
35. DancycitesScanlon(1998p.197–200).ButDancyadmitsthattheinterpretiveclaimisnotbeyonddispute,andIrefrainfromattributingthistoScanlon.
36.Bizarrely,theoriginalsentenceis“Supposewefaceachoicebetweenkillingonepersonandhelpinganother.” I take itDancy intended todescribe theexampleIuse.
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so theprior distribution encodeswhat agents shouldbelieve givenanyevidence.ThepriordistributioncanencodeanUber-rule.
Arethereanysimplerulesthatapplyinallsituations,i.e.allovertheVenndiagram?Iseenoreasontoexpectso.Wecannotsayyoushouldbelieveyour senses,because there ispossibleevidence/ar-easof theVenndiagramwhereyoushouldnotbelieveyoursenses.Indeed,foranysimpleruleyoumightstate,thereispossibleevidence/areasoftheVenndiagramwhereyoushouldnotfollowthatsimplerule.ThebestwecouldhopeforwouldbepatternsinsomeareasoftheVenndiagramthatcouldbehelpfullydescribedwithsimplerules.
WemightmakeacomparisonwithHumeanlaws.FortheHumean,lawsdonotexplainevents;eventsarefundamentalandlawsarede-rived fromevents, soHumean lawsare just informative summaries.Similarly,inBayesianepistemologythepriorsarefundamental;somesimpleepistemicrulesmightbederivedfromthepriors,but,likeHu-meanlaws,theyarejusthelpfulsummaries.39
Forafurtherintuitiveargument,considersomedifficultquestion,suchas thecorrect credence that climatechange isman-made. Is itplausiblethatafinitenumberofsimpleepistemicruleswouldgener-atetherationalcredence?Itstrikesmeasentirelyimplausible.
Intherestofthissectionwe’llconsidertwoobjectionstotheUber-rulebasedon(i)guidanceand(ii)coherence.
8.1. GuidanceLasonen-Aarnio (2014) offers the most detailed discussion, and
39.Thussimplerulescanstillhelpexplainrationalrequirements;wejusthavetorememberthatthesimplerulesarethemselvesexplainedbythepriors.SothisseemscompatiblewithChristensen’scomment:“Ifweaskwhythedis-agreementofothercompetentthinkerswiththesameevidenceshouldaffectmyconfidence,thecorrectexplanationmaystillbethatsincetheirdisagree-mentisevidencethatmyinitialbeliefwasbasedonanepistemicerror,itcre-atesrationalpressuretogivecredencetotheclaimthatmyinitialbeliefwasbasedonerror,andthat…thiscreatesrationalpressuretobackoffofthatinitialbelieftoatleastsomeextent”(Christensen2013p.93,italicsadded).However,Christensen(2010p.203–4)offerssomeconsiderationsthatsug-gestthatsomesimplerulesareexplanatoryinastrongersensethanIallow.
rules.Cantheserulesbefinitelystated?Ifnot,wehaveaversionofparticularism:
Principled Particularism:Anyfinitesetof ruleswillbe in-sufficienttocaptureallnormativetruths.37
Thustheconnectionbetweendescriptiveandnormativetruthsisex-pressibleonlywithaninfinitelylongrule:anUber-rule.WiththisoneUber-rule,whichpresumablydoesnotundermineitself,theproblemsofunderminingareavoided.
IwilldefendtheUber-ruleinepistemology.AsfarasIcantell,theterm‘Uber-rule’wasintroducedbyChristensen(2010)anddescribedasfollows:
Suppose we specify, for every possible evidential situ-ation inwhich an agentmay find herself,what the ap-propriate doxastic response is. The resultwould be anoverarching rulewhich took into account every sort ofevidence.Wemight thenthinkof thatruleasencodingtheoneandonlytrueepistemic[rule].(p.203)
IaddthattheUber-rulecannotbefinitelyexpressed.Thispositioncanbegeneratedbyconjoininganinfinitenumberofsimplerules,orpos-itingafinitenumberofsimpleruleswithatleastoneinfinitelylonghedge.AstheUber-ruleappliesinallsituations,itisunhedged;Iwillarguebelow(8.2)thatitisalsodefeasible.
SofartheonlydetaileddiscussionsoftheUber-rulehavearguedagainst it.38 Let me sketch a way of thinking about rationality thatmakesanUber-ruleplausible.Insteadofthinkingaboutrationalityasemergingoutofsimplerules,thinkoftheBayesianapproachwhereagents begin with a prior distribution of probabilities. Imagine allepistemicallypossibleworldsonavastVenndiagram.Bayesiansonlyallow updating by conditionalization (or Jeffrey conditionalization),
37. CompareHolton(2002)andMcKeeverandRidge(2006p.16).
38.Christensen(2010,2013),Lasonen-Aarnio(2014).
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However,thispositionmightbehardertodefendinepistemologythaninethics.Inethics,oftenonlyasmallnumberofconsiderationsarerelevanttowhetheraparticularactionisright.But,turningtoepis-temology,considerwhetherIshouldtrustmyvisionandbelievethereisaredtableinfrontofme.Presumablythetrack-recordofmyvisionisrelevant,soeveryvisualexperienceinmylife—andwhetheritwasveridical—willberelevant.Andwealreadyseemtohavearulethatistoocomplicatedtoguideme.
Atthispointwecouldretreattotheviewthatalthoughwecannev-er(ornotalways)saythattherearenootherrelevantfeatures,theseotherrelevantfeaturescanberationallyignored.Defendingtheviewthattherearemorereasonsthanwenormallytakeintoaccount,MarkSchroeder(2005)writes:
IfGodmade a list of all of the pros and cons of somecourseofaction,itmightbeinfinitelylong.Butyoucan’tpossiblytakeeverythingintoaccount—onlythereasonsnearthetopofthelist.(p.15)
Sowecouldbeguidedby theUber-rulebypayingattention to themostimportantpartsoftheruleforoursituation.
Aproblemmightremain if someone insisted thatguidancemustbeprovidedbythefullepistemictheory,i.e.thewholeUber-rule.ThefullUber-rulecannotbefinitelyformulated,andperhapswecannotbeguidedbyruleswecannotformulate.
Butanagentmightbeguidedbytheruleswithoutbeingabletoformulatethem.Forexample,whenyoujudgethatasentenceisun-grammatical,youareguidedbylinguisticrulesthatyouareunabletoformulate.
Furthermore,youmightevenbedisposedtogettheruleswrongifyoutriedtoformulatethem.Forexample,Arpaly(2003)arguesthatHuckleberryFinnisguidedbythetruemoralrulesinnotturninginanescapedslave,evenifhewronglybelievesthatheshouldturnin
focussesontwomainworries.StartwiththeworrythatwecannotbeguidedbytheUber-rule:40
Now,theproblemfortheUber-ruleviewisthatanUber-rulejustdoesn’tseemlikethekindofrulethatcanoffergenuineguidance.Forone,itcannotevenbeexpressedasasetoffinite, informativegeneralisations.…Even ifonearguesthatsubjectsmanagetogenuinelyfollowtheUber-rulebyemployingmoreordinarykindsofepistemicrulesasheuristicguides,thefactremainsthattheyneedguidancetofollowtheUber-ruleitself.Hence,theUber-rule isaveryawkwardcandidate forarulethat is itselfsupposed toplay the roleofofferinggenuineguidance.(p.333)
InmyviewtheUber-ruleneednotofferguidance.IprefertheBayes-ianviewabove,accordingtowhichagentsare“guided”bytheirpriorsandtheevidence.
Still, Lasonen-Aarnio’s worry may survive as the worry that wemeremortalsareunabletobeguidedbythefullidealpriorprobabilityfunction,whichrequiresassigningprobabilitiestoaninfinitenumberofpropositions.Solet’saddressthisworryintheformthatLasonen-Aarnioputsit—thattheUber-rulecannotofferguidance.
Inresponse,itisarguablethatanUber-rulecouldofferguidance.Inthehappiestcases,agentsknowthattheceterisparibusclauseofasimpleruleistrue,i.e.otherthingsareequal,sotheycanbeguidedbytherule.Forexample,someonewhohasconclusivereasontobe-lievethattheirsensesarereliablecanfollowPerception,andPercep-tionwillbeonepartofthelargerUber-rule.ThoughneverguidedbytheentireUber-rule,agentsmightusuallybeguidedbythepartoftherulethatisrelevanttothem—itlooksred,therearenootherrelevantfeatures,sobelieveitisred.41
40.CompareBoghossian2008p.496.
41. SeeVäyrynen(2008)foradetaileddefenceofasimilarpositioninmetaethics.
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Uber-ruleinthatsituationare.…Nowimaginethatyouhearanepistemologyoracletellyouthattherecommen-dationsmadebytheUber-ruleintheverysituationyouareinrightnowareincorrect.Insofarastheruleiscom-plete…thechartmustsaysomethingaboutyourcurrentsituation.Imaginethat,asthecharttellsyou,therulerec-ommendsbeinginstateS.But insofarastheoracle istobetrusted,doesn’thertestimonyactasahigher-orderdefeaterforanysuchrecommendation?(p.331)
Asstated,Ithinkthisimaginedsituationisincoherent.TheproblemisthatweareimaginingacasewhereyouaretoldthattheUber-ruleisincorrect.Butwehavedefined‘Uber-rule’asthecorrectrule.Soanyrulethatfailstobecorrectisn’ttheUber-rule.SoanyspeakerwhotellsyoutheUber-ruleisincorrectissayingsomethingincoherent,andyoushouldnotfollowtheiradvice.44Evenworse,we’vebeentoldthatitisan“epistemologyoracle”whoistellingustheUber-ruleis incorrect.Presumably,thephrase‘epistemologyoracle’appliesonlytosomeonewho speaks the truth. So ‘epistemology oracle’ cannot be correctlyappliedtoanyonewhotellsustheUber-ruleisincorrect(underanymodeofpresentation),astheUber-ruleisbydefinitioncorrect.
Acoherentscenario inthisarea is thatarationalagentmightbetoldsomething falseabout theUber-rulebyaplausible-lookingbutmisleadinginformant.AndwhatmightbeworryingLasonen-Aarnioisthethoughtthat,inthisscenario,agentscanhaverationaldoubtsaboutthecontentoftheUber-rule.ItlooksparadoxicalfortheUber-ruletoapplyinallsituations,beunhedged,andyetbedefeasible.45
Ithinkparadoxcanbeavoided.Let’sworkthroughacase.Supposethesumtotalofyourevidenceisacurrentredexperience.Supposethe
44. Theymightsay,“Theruleyouarefollowingisincorrect”,butthat’sadifferentsituation,asitinvolvesadifferentmodeofpresentationoftheUber-rule.
45. CompareChristensen(2013):“IftheagentcontinuestofollowtheUber-rulewhiledoubtingitscorrectness,itseemsinevitablethatshewillinsomecasesviolate [Anti-Akrasia]” (p. 93).Theexample showshowwe candoubt theUber-rulewithoutAkrasia.
theslave.42HuckleberryFinn’sinabilitytoformulatetherulesdoesnotstophimfrombeingguidedbytherules.
PerhapsourpositioninepistemologyisanalogoustoHuckleberryFinn’spositioninethics.WecannotformulatetheUber-ruleanymorethanHuckleberryFinncan formulate theethical rules.But it ispos-siblethathiscompassionmakeshimperformtherightaction,sothereisasenseinwhichheisguidedbyethicalrules.Similarly,itispossiblethat our good sense, or epistemic intuition,makesus form rationalbeliefs,sothereisasenseinwhichweareguidedbytheUber-rule.43
Tosumup,althoughtheUber-ruleisincompatiblewithsomeviewsthat involvestrongrequirementsonourability to formulateandbeguidedbynormativerules,suchstrongrequirementscanberejected.
8.2 CoherenceLasonen-Aarnio’sotherworryisthattheremightbenoUber-ruletobe found—“findinga rulenot susceptible todefeat is surelyharderthanmerelydefiningonetobesuch!”(p.331).TheideaseemstobethattheconceptofanUber-rulemightbeincoherent,justasthecon-ceptofasquarecircleis.
Onemight immediatelybe suspicioushere—surely, for anypos-sibleevidentialstate,thereisarationalresponse,andtheUber-rulestateswhattherationalresponsesare.Nevertheless,Lasonen-Aarniooffersthefollowingcasetodefendthisposition:
[A]ssumethatyouarestaringatachartrepresentingtheUber-rule: for each possible epistemic situation… thechartspecifieswhat therecommendationsmadebythe
42. SeeRaz(2000) for furtherdiscussion.Onemightbe tempted toappeal tothefamiliardistinctionbetweenatheoryofrightnessandadecision-makingprocedure(Bales1971).Butweareworkingonlywiththesubjectiveought,sothetheoryofrightnesslooksirrelevant(orperhapsbetter:thedistinctioncollapses).
43. Adifferentproblemwith an infinitely longUber-rule is thatwewouldbeunabletograspepistemicconcepts.Thus,Jackson,PettitandSmith(2000)giveasemanticobjectiontoparticularism.Thisseemstobeagoodreasonforpositingalongbutfiniterule.
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AsafinalpointindefenceoftheUber-rule,itisworthemphasiz-ing Holton’s point that Principled Particularism is compatible withutilitarianism:
[S]upposeyouwereautilitarian.Thenyoucouldn’tde-terminewhichactiontoperformonthebasisofalistofpleasuresandpainscausedbypossibleactionsofyours.Youwouldneedtoknow,inaddition,thatthesewereallthepleasuresandpainsthateachactioncaused;andthatthesewereallyourpossibleactions.(p.206)
Nomatterhowmuchof theworldwedescribe, it isnot enough toensure that an act is right—rightnessdependson thewholeworld,justasgeneralizationslike ‘allswansarewhite’do.47Similarly, ifwefocusonnarrow-scoperuleswithdescriptiveantecedentswithoutto-talityfacts,thenwecanneverstopatfiniterules—whatyououghttobelievedependsonyourwholementalstate.Butthisdoesn’truleout
Thisfollowsfromtheinternalistintuitionthatagentshaveepistemicaccesstotherationality-makers.Butonecanhaverationalfalsebeliefsaboutwhatothersshouldbelieve:
Titelbaum’s-Principle-I-Deny:Foranygivenagentandsituation,iftheyare mistakenaboutwhatoneshouldbelieveinasituationotherthantheir own,thentheyaremakingamistakeofrationality.
Thedifferencecanbeput in termsof thescopeof thequantifiers.Foranyagentandsituation, thereareepistemic rules theyought tobelieveare re-quirementsofrationality;buttherearenoepistemicrulestheyoughttobe-lievearerequirementsofrationalityinallsituations.Anotherwayofputtingthisisthatyoucanberationallymistakenaboutwhatsomeoneelseshouldbelieve, but not aboutwhat you should believe.Why the asymmetry? Be-causewhatanagentshouldbelievedependsontheir ownhigher-orderbeliefsaboutrationality,whereaswhatanagentshouldbelievedoesnotdependonsomeone else’shigher-orderbeliefsabout rationality.TheasymmetrycanbereadofftheAnti-Akraticrule(thisisanadhominemcriticismofTitelbaum,asAnti-Akrasiaiscentraltohistheory)—itisirrationaltobelievepandbe-lievethatitisirrationaltobelievep;itisnotirrationaltobelievepandbelievethatitisirrationalforsomeoneelsetobelievep.Titelbaum(2015)mentionsthispossibleasymmetrybutimmediatelyrejectsit:“[E]veryplausiblestoryI’vebeenabletocomeupwithisgeneralizable:itappliesjustaswelltoanagent’sconclusionsaboutwhat’srationallyrequiredinothersituationsasitdoestoconclusionsaboutwhat’srequiredinhercurrentsituation”(p.276).
47. CompareSchroeder2011.
Uber-rulesaysthattherationalresponsetothisevidenceistobe90%certainthatthereisaredobjectinfrontofyou.Youarerational,soyouare90%certainthatthereisaredobjectinfrontofyou.Andyouarereflective,soyouhavethesecond-orderbeliefthattheUber-rulesaysthatagentswiththesumtotalofaredexperienceshouldbe90%cer-tainthatthereisaredobjectinfrontofthem.Sayyouaren%certainofthissecond-orderbelief.Nowaddaninformantwhosays(falsely)thattherationalresponsetoyourcurrentredexperienceistobeonly50%certainthatthereisaredobjectinfrontofyou.
Distinguishfirst-orderandsecond-orderresponses.Themost im-mediate response is lowering your second-order credence that theUber-rulesaysthatagentswithexactlytheevidenceofaredexperi-enceshouldbe90%certainthatthereisaredobjectinfrontofthem.Thisfallsfromn%.Thefirst-orderresponseisthatyourcredencethatthereisaredobjectinfrontofyoudropsbelow90%.Ifyoufullytrust-edtheinformant,itwouldfallto50%,butlet’ssayitsettlesat70%.
ThereisnoviolationoftheUber-rule.Yourepistemicpositionhaschanged—yourevidencenowincludestheredexperienceand the tes-timony.Anditiscompatiblewiththisstorythattherecommendationof theUber-rule for someonewith this evidence is “Have 70% cre-dencethatthereisaredobjectinfrontofyou.”
Noparadoxsofar.PerhapstheproblemisthatyoucandoubtthecontentoftheUber-rule.YouarenotcertainthattheUber-rulerecom-mendsa90%credencethatthereisaredobjecttoagentswithjustaredexperience.Similarly,youshouldnotbecertain that70% is therationalcredenceinyourcurrentsituation.ButarationalagentmaydoubttheUber-rulewithoutbelievingthatthebeliefsitprescribesareirrational.Thepossibilitythatyourcredenceshouldbemorethan70%needstoperfectly balancethepossibilitythatyourcredenceshouldbelessthan70%.46
46.WhataboutTitelbaum’smemorablephrase—mistakesaboutrationalityaremistakesofrationality?Icanendorsethisphraseifwefillitoutasfollows:
Titelbaum’s-Principle-I-Accept:Foranygivenagentandsituation,iftheyare mistakenaboutwhattheyshouldbelieveintheirsituation,thentheyare makingamistakeofrationality.
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usedtorefertoeitheroftheseproperties.(Compare:Thereisnothingrationalaboutanidealgas.Theassumptionoftheidealnessofagasisanalogoustotheassumptionoftheprobabilismofagents.49)
In one sense, this type of revisability is stronger thanQuine al-lowed,foronewayQuinethinkswemightgiveupasentenceisawaythatwewouldnaturallydescribeasachangeinthemeaningofthesentence.(Quinedeniedthatwecouldseparatemeaningchangefrombelief change, due to his rejection of the analytic/synthetic distinc-tion.)WhereasIamhappytotalkaboutpropositionsandinclinedtohold thatnoproposition is immune from revision.But there are re-latedQuineanviewsthatIdonotendorse.
First,Idonotrejecttheapriori.IthinkthePrincipalPrinciple(andotherprinciples)areaprioriyetdefeasible.Somephilosophersiden-tifytheaprioriwithimmunityfromrevision—soIrejectthe“apriori”onlyinthissense.50
Second, I donot reject analyticity. Let an analytic sentencebe asentencethatonecanbeinapositiontojustifiablybelieveinvirtueofunderstandingit.Thisallowstheexistenceofdefeatersthatblockthejustification.Onecanrejectananalyticsentenceasfalseifonemistak-enlydoubtsthatitisanalytic.51Imaginebeingtoldthat‘Allbachelorsaremen’ is falsebyamisleadingbuteminentsource.Orbeingtoldthatyouhaveingestedadrugthatgeneratesfalsebeliefsaboutwhichsentencesareanalytic.Itmightberationaltorejectthesentence,soevenanalyticsentencesarenotimmunefromrevision.52
49.Hájek2006.
50.Casullo(2003)arguesthatthereisnoexperientialindefeasibilityconditionintheconceptofapriorijustification;andSummerfield(1991)andThurow(2006)arguethatapriorijustificationisdefeasiblebyexperience.
51. Alternatively, perhaps analytic sentences canbe rejected in the sense thattheyarebelievedtofailtousefullyapplytotheworld.Forexample,onecanrejectthesentence‘Etherconductsheat’onthegroundsthatthereisnoether.Eklund(2017p.89)holdsthatanalyticsentencescanbefalse.
52.Williamson(2007)writesthat“thecentralideabehindepistemologicalcon-ceptionsofanalyticity is that, insuchcases, failure toassent isnotmerelygoodevidenceoffailuretounderstand;itisconstitutiveofsuchfailure”(p.73).Irejecttheanalyticinthissense.
generalizations.Sothisversionofparticularismisnotdevastatingfornormativetheorizing.
ThiscompletesmydefenceoftheUber-rule.Inthenextsection,Iwillconnecttheresultingpositiontobroaderissuesregardingdefea-sibilityandtheapriori.
9. Against Certainty
IarguedintheprevioussectionthateventheUber-rulecanberatio-nallydoubted.ThissupportsaviewassociatedwithQuine—thatnostatement is immune from revision.Epistemic rules are good candi-datesforstatementsthatareimmunefromrevision,sobyarguingthattheyarenotimmunefromrevision,thegeneralcasethatnostatementisimmunefromrevisionissupported.
Still,Ihaveonlydiscussednarrow-scoperulesconnectingdescrip-tivewithnormative statements.Mypositiondoesnot entail thatnostatementisimmunefromrevision.Forexample,onemightstillholdthatrationalagentsarecertainoftautologies.
Nevertheless,Ithinkrationaldoubtcanberaisedevenabouttau-tologies, and for similar reasons. For example, suppose a heavenlyvoicetellsyouthatp-and-not-p,ortellsyouthatyourcredencesshouldsumto0.8.Bafflingsituationsforsure,buttheyseemtoprovidesomereasontodoubttautologies.48
ThisisachallengetoBayesianism,whichmodelsagentsasproba-bilistic,andsorequiresthatagentsarecertainoftautologies.Ithinkthe Bayesian should respond that their models, like most models,makeidealizations—thatis,theymakeassumptionsthatareknowntobefalseinordertomakethemodeleasiertoworkwith.Probabilismissuchanassumption.SoprobabilisticagentsinBayesianmodelsareidealized;buttheyarenotnecessarilyideal,inthesenseofbeingper-fectlyrational.Wehaveunfortunateterminologywhere‘ideal’canbe
48. SeeWilliams(forthcoming)foradefenceof“rationalillogicality”;Schechter(2013)offersrelatedargumentsagainstbeingcertain.AtoddswiththisistheliteraturebasedonMcFetridge(1990)(e.g.Hale2002,Ahmed2000,Leech2015),whichseemstoassumethattheremustbesomeruleswhichareim-munetodoubt.
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Hale,B.(2002).BasicLogicalKnowledge.Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplements51:279–304.
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10. Conclusion
Theproblemsofthispaperweregeneratedbytheparadoxthatemerg-esinsituationswhereepistemicrulesunderminethemselvesoreachother.Onewaytoavoidparadoxistomaintainthatepistemicrulesareindefeasibleandignoreallopposingevidence.Ihavearguedinsteadthatweshouldthinkofsimpleepistemicrulesashedgedrules.Theyapplyonlyifagentsdon’thaveevidencethatisinadmissiblerelativetothoserules.IhavedefendedtheviewthattheonlyrulethatappliesinallsituationsisanUber-rulewhichstateswhatagentsshouldbelievegivenanypossibleevidence.ButeventhecontentoftheUber-rulecanberationallydoubted.53
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