Are There Any Wild Cards in Global Climate Change?

Ernest M. AgeeEarth & Atmospheric Sciences

Purdue University28 August 2008

Some Possible Wild Cards

• Asteroids

• Chaos Theory

• Volcanoes

• Solar Variability

About 500 active volcanoes are known on Earth, not counting those that lie beneath the sea. / -- From: Tilling, 1980, Volcanoes: Earthquake Information Bulletin, v.12, n.4./

According to the Smithsonian Institute book, “Volcanoes of the World,” there are over 1500 active volcanoes on planet Earth.

Quiet Sun(Less TSI)

Active Sun(More TSI)

International sunspot number based on the formula devised by Rudolph Wolf, published daily by the Sunspot Index Data Center in Belgium. Evident in this record are the 11-year cycles, the Gleissberg cycles and the Maunder Minimum.

Sunspot Number (SN) based on 14C analysis of tree rings from 9000 BC to 2000 AD (see Solanki, et al. 2004, Nature).

Figure SPM.2

IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

Twentieth century variations of atmospheric moisture anomalies over near-global (50N-50S) oceans versus stratospheric aerosol optical depth (taken from Santer et al. 2007), which accords well with the current 100+ years of global warming.

Daily Sun: 06 Aug 08

The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SOHO/MDI

Sunspot number: 0 Updated 06 Aug 2008

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE  April 25, 2007

NEXT SOLAR STORM CYCLE WILL START LATE

Experts Split Over Intensity

The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012 – up to a year later than expected – according to a forecast issued today by NOAA’s Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts.

Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker. The Space Environment Center led the prediction panel and issued the forecast at its annual Space Weather Workshop in Boulder. NASA sponsored the panel.

Hathaway's prediction (lower curve) for Cycles 24 and 25, and NCAR's prediction for Cycle 24 (see Dikpati et al. 2006). Also see Hathaway's URL at http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm.

TSI measurements from satellites as reported by Willson (2003) showing recent 11-year cycles (part of Cycle 21, all of Cycle 22, and most of Cycle 23).

    

Climate Model Simulations

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Ammann, et al. (2007) show that the Solar Parameter must decrease to 1330 Wm-2 to compensate for Greenhouse Gas Warming

Sudden global cooling as documented by the Hadley Center (January 2007 – January 2008).

Sudden global cooling as documented by the Hadley Center (January 2007 – January 2008).

In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars' south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.