Arctic Ice MeltA Study of Sea Ice Variability in

the Northwest Passage:Implications for Ship Navigation

Larin M. Lash, Mike L. Harrington, Evan P. Menkhus

Arctic Ice MeltA Study of Sea Ice Variability in

the Northwest Passage:Implications for Ship Navigation

Larin M. Lash, Mike L. Harrington, Evan P. Menkhus

Introduction

Introduction

• A Long Awaited Trade Route

• Huge Global Significance (London to Tokyo, 14670 to < 8000 mi)

• The Five Players

Introduction

• 2010 G-7 Summit in Iqaluit, Canada

• Canada’s Continental Shelf Claim• Military Bases & Seaport

• $7 Billion for ice breakers / patrol vessels

Introduction

“ The first principle of sovereignty is either use it, or lose it.

“Steven Harper, Canadian Prime Minister

• Canada’s resolute attitude

“It’s one of our government’s priorities, the assertion of our sovereignty in the Arctic

“

Jim Flaherty, Finance Minister

• Russia and the United States, the Bering

Strait

• Greenland (Denmark)

Introduction

• Arctic Ice changed in 2007

• Climate trends• Clouds / Albedo

Sept. 2010

Introduction

• Study Objective:• To utilize satellite imagery to determine if Arctic ice is melting at a

predictable or measurable rate that can be used to forecast the annual

presence of ice in the Northwest Passage, possibly providing its controlling

countries with a new global trade route.

The Study Area

Methods

Methods

Methods

Methods

Methods

The Results

Image Analysis Data

Date Ice Water % Ice % Water %∆ Change in Ice8/20/199

28034263 1815496 81.6% 18.4%

8/29/1995

1477396 8485168 14.8% 85.2% -66.7%

8/31/1996

2571503 7391047 25.8% 74.2% 11.0%

9/1/1999 1312052 8611432 13.2% 86.8% 1312052

9/3/2000 3824971 6022459 38.8% 61.2% 25.6%

9/22/2001

6408301 3554254 64.3% 35.7% 25.5%

9/7/2010 3654191 6288810 36.8% 63.2% -27.6%

• Study period: 1992 – 2010

The Results

1/1/1992

1/1/1993

1/1/1994

1/1/1995

1/1/1996

1/1/1997

1/1/1998

1/1/1999

1/1/2000

1/1/2001

1/1/2002

1/1/2003

1/1/2004

1/1/2005

1/1/2006

1/1/2007

1/1/2008

1/1/2009

1/1/2010

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Yearly Ice Totals (%)

1/1/1992

1/1/1993

1/1/1994

1/1/1995

1/1/1996

1/1/1997

1/1/1998

1/1/1999

1/1/2000

1/1/2001

1/1/2002

1/1/2003

1/1/2004

1/1/2005

1/1/2006

1/1/2007

1/1/2008

1/1/2009

1/1/2010

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

Percent Change in Ice

Conclusion

• 1973 – 2010 Imagery

• Cloud cover issues

• Our findings

Future Studies

• Recommendations

• Passive Microwave Imagery

• Incorporation of additional data

Questions?

?