arab spring causes & consequences
TRANSCRIPT
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Arab Spring
Riots, Rabble and Revolutions:
Causes and Consequences
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Outline of talk
I. What is a revolution? Does the Arab Springconstitute a revolution?
II. The Arab Spring in comparative perspective
A. Causes
B. The fate of revolutionary movementsIII. The possible outcome of the Arab Spring Scenarios
for the future
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I. What is a revolution? What is in a
name?
Industrial revolution (Britain 1750s on) Social revolution (the 1960s)
Cultural revolution (again the 1960s; China)
Political revolutions (American 1776, French 1789;
USSR 1917, etc.etc.)
Revolution in military affairs (todays high tech
warfare)
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Narrowing the field: Revolutions that
involve political change
A working definition of political revolution (JackGoldstone)
"an effort to transform the political institutions and the
justifications for political authority in society..
accompanied by formal or informal mass mobilization and noninstitutionalized actions that undermine
authorities."
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But even then
Types of Political Revolutions:
Republican revolutions
(English 1640; American 1776; French 1789)
Marxist
(Russia 1917, China 1949)
Against dictatorship
(Iran 1979)
Against communism (East Europe, USSR 1989)
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Mapping revolutions is thus complex: Multiple dimensions are involved
Revolutions are short and intensebut what is the
relevant time frame?
Sometimes multiple revolutions within the same time span(6 in France 1789-1800)
We only get a full picture in hindsight. Thus: The owl of
minerva
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II. Revolutions in Comparative
Perspective
Thinking about the Arab Spring by reflecting onclearcut cases of revolution:
England 1640-1649;
American Revolution 1776-1783
French Revolution (1789-?) Russian Revolution 1917 (March and October);
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A. Causes of Revolutions
1. External context and pressure: Economic pressures and taxation (American;
French; English 1640)
International war (English 1640, Russian 1917),
Turkish WW I); Colonial intrusion (Japan and Meji transformation
post 1853)
Globalization today? (USSR 1991)
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2. Existing internal structural tension Economic divisions (class tensions; unemployed, etc)
Groups that lack political voice (Colonies vs. Metropole)
Inherited privilege vs. meritocracy (French bourgeois vs.
feudal prerogatives, 1789) Groups excluded from economic opportunity or
appointments (corruption)
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B. What is at stake in revolutionary
episodes?
Moments of Madness(Aristide Zolberg)
Everything appears possible because political events
change human consciousness
The world turned upside down
(Christopher Hill on English Revolutionthe rise of
Ranters, Levellers, Diggers)
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Two important interim conclusions
1. Revolutions create space for alternativeconceptions of social, political, and cultural order
fundamental transformation of society, culture and
politics
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2. Revolutions create opportunities for a) Charismatic leaders
Non-routine, not rule bound, and not beholden to their
followers
The charismatic leader advances an alternativecomprehensive world view, a new future
The leader re-defines the realm of the possible
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b) Organizations and institutions that have acomprehensive alternative view
The Communist partys Iron Vanguard of the Revolution
Religious organizations (Islamic theocracy in the wake of
Iranian Revolution 1979)
C f
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C. The Fate of Revolutionary
MovementsExternal Pressure and Structural tensions
Discontented groups
Demands on govt.
Govt. reforms or resists
Revolutionary movement wins the struggle
Success then disunity
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Revolutionary stages
Impetus behind the revolution: External pressureplus pre-existing internal disaffected groups
Often not the poor or dispossessed but intermediate or
rising groups without voice
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1
st
phase: limited demands: e.g. 1789 French bourgeois revolution. (anti-feudal)
Broad alliance of disaffected groups
Easy to define what one is against
The monarchy, dictatorship, absolutist rule, since they bundle allauthority
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2
nd
phase. Various scenarios Government meets demands (controlled reform)
revolution is averted
Government succeeds in repressionrevolution is
suspended but latent Government falls--moderates ascend3rd phase
commences
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3rd phase: Moderates cannot fulfill demands. Challenges by conservatives and radicals
Difficulty in re-aligning with conservatives or crushingrevolutionary comrades
Moderates have broad membership (loose alliance) vs.
radicals with unifying ideology (sometimes charismaticleadership)
Short time frame for moderates to demonstrate change
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4th phase: Radicals ascend E.g.: Cromwell; Robespierre in French Revolution).
Agitation against counter-revolutionaries; revisionists
Rhetorical and political moves against the moderates.Political Outbidding Language of the Chinese Cultural Revolution revisionist
dogs=USSR; imperial lackeys=those accused of being prowestern or pro-dtente; public trials; public self criticism;neighbor surveillance
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5
th
phase: Dictatorship but less radical in intent. Radicals turn on each other and the revolution burns itself
out
Revolution turns external (nationalist fervor)
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D. Where does the Arab Spring fit?
Is it a revolution? Yes (multiple dimensions; large group mobilization;
existing political hierarchy has been challenged)
Self description by the participants as a revolutionary
movement: The intent to overthrow the regime and
transform society, culture
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E. Causes of the Arab Spring?
1. External pressure: economic retardationRank of some MENA countries in economic
development
Rank in unemployment rate (CIA 2010): Egypt 101;
Tunisia 136; Libya 176; Yemen 181; Gaza strip 183; But particularly high among the young and educated
Inflation: Algeria 128;Tunisia 128; Syria 129; S.Arabia
155; Gaza 163; West Bank 168; Egypt 205 (11 %)
Perception of relative stagnation
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2. Internal dissatisfactionCorruption rankings (Transparency International)
Tunisia 73: Morocco 80; Algeria and Egypt 112 (tied);
Yemen 164; Libya 168;
Age distribution (Egypt 33% younger than 14years, Syria 35 % compare US 20%; Germany
13%)
Lack of democratic input (Syrian Assad family in
power since 1970)
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Unrest due to the gap between rising expectationsand outcomes Educational opportunities improved in some countries but
not economic upward mobility.
In Tunisia in 2001 those with higher education (college)
and those with no to little education faced an 11 %unemployment rate.
By 2010 almost 25 % of those with higher education wereunemployed, compared to 6 % of those will littleeducation.
E What next? What might unfold in the
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E. What next? What might unfold in the
MENA region?
Politicians and predictions
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Do political scientists fare better?
Steven Weber on business cycles (1997) crisis
Global capital markets are increasingly efficient
at managing risk, and providing shock
absorbers that cushion economic fluctuations.
And the wider array of funding sources and moresophisticated risk management techniques are
stabilizers for a globalizing economy.
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Oops
Nevertheless: can we integrate the Arab Spring in a
wider understanding of revolutionary movements
and ask intelligent questions about the future?
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III. Possible outcomes of the Arab
Spring. Concerns for Democracy General point made earlier: Charismatic leaders andstrong organizations win out in revolutionary
struggles
Who are the leaders and institutions with alternative,comprehensive views?
Who are well organized?
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Islamic groups, e.g. Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni) 77 of 156 parliamentary
seats
Salafists (Sunni but traditionalist) Salafi alliance 33 of 156seats
Salafists tend not to be politically involved as long as the leaderadheres to the faith. If the leader does not then violentopposition is legitimate.
There is no clear line of distinction between Salafists and themembership of the Muslim Brotherhood. (Jonathan Brown)
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Tunisia: Ennahda party 89 of 217 seats
But prior to elections polled only at 20 %
Conclusion: ability to mobilize the vote
(Other parties 2nd
largest CPR, Center-Left-Secular 29seats, Aridha-former govt?- 26)
Why have Islamic groups been
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Why have Islamic groups been
successful?
Natural organizational structure (religiousleadership; historical roots)
Comprehensive world view in many aspects
Cross link with multiple social functions
(charities, etc.)
Discipline and voter turn out
Ennahda polled 20 % in Tunisia but got almost 40% of
the vote, similar development in Egypt with Muslim
Brothers and Salafi alliance
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The Military Algerian response to Islamic parties
Traditionally highly respected
In Egypt: external wars with Israel
Residue from colonial liberation struggles (Tunisia, Morrocco,
Algeria)
Both Islamic parties and Armed Forces mightbecome obstacles to fundamental democratic reform
B ) Why should we care about
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B.) Why should we care about
democratic reform in MENA?
1. Democratic Peace Theory
2. Normative concern with human rights
Richard Williamson: the Freedom Agenda.
3. The effects of repressive regimes spill across
borders Refugee flows
C D l ti h t d i
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C. Do revolutions have to end up in
radicalism or authoritarianism ? Can
Democracy take root?The American Revolution !
But is the U.S. an exception given the exit of the
opposition? Opponents left.
American Revolution does provide other insights Content of ideas? Presence of alternative conceptions
of order
Institutional design
Role of third parties?
Other positive scenarios for the future?
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Other positive scenarios for the future?
Another wave of democracy ? (East European
transformation)
But there:
Consensus on available alternative model (liberal
democracy and capitalism) Existing societal networksrapid party formation
Third party support (US, EU extension)
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Many of the East European characteristics are not
present
multiple rival conceptions of order in MENA
societal capital available (Putnams Bowling clubs and
democracy)but not proto democratic institutions instead
religious groups etc.
Limited role for western third parties
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Models?
Algerian model ?
Military rule with oil rents
Turkish model?
Some questions about future of democracy there
(journalists in prison; roll back of womens rights; policytowards Israel, Iran)
Theocracy ? (Iran, some groups in Iraq)
D Conclusions from Political Science
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D. Conclusions from Political Science
Research (A. Roberts)
1.Economic wealth correlates with democracy
2. Less clear conclusions on which institutions lead
to economic development
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3. Competing arguments whether external
intervention can help create democracy
4. A slight majority believes Islam does NOT harm
prospects for democracy
E) Factors that influence possible
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E). Factors that influence possible
democracy in MENA
1. One Arab Spring? The diversity in the MENA region
2. Some key differences Monarchical dynasties (Gulf states, Saudi Arabia,
Morocco)
Homogeneity (Egypt) vs. multiple identities (religious,linguistic, ethnic, tribal, clan)
Natural resources (oil haves and have nots)
Role of the military
Secular nature of government (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya)and religious standing (Saudi Arabia)
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Monarchical dynasties
Limited reforms in Jordan, Morocco, Gulf and Saudi
Arabia in response to limited demands
One exception: Bahrain (Sunni minority and Shia
majority)
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Homogeneity of the population
Homogeneity is not a pre-condition for democracy.Heterogeneous countries can be democratic (US,Canada, India, etc.)
However this depends to some extent on: Overarching national identification
Crosscutting rather than overlapping and reinforcingcleavages (e.g. economic differences should not overlapwith religious)
Political power sharing among different groups
Natural resources (oil) curse or
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Natural resources (oil) curse or
blessing?
Economic consequences of oil The Dutch disease:
Inflationary pressures
Displaces investment in manufacturing, production, etc
Forestalls fiscal adjustment (overly generous welfare
payments) Of 23 developing countries reliant on natural resource
exports, only 2 had annual growth rates over 2% between1970-1995.
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Political consequences of oil rents
1. Can lead to conflict if unequally distributed
(Nigeria)
2. Allows for poor economic policy as long as oil
prices remain high (Venezuela)
3. Can entrench oligarchy
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Political consequences of oil rents The long shadow of Magna Carta !!
What??
(61) SINCE WE HAVE GRANTED ALL THESE THINGS
for God, for the better ordering of our kingdom, and toallay the discord that has arisen between us and ourbarons, we give and grant to the barons the followingsecurity:
The barons shall elect twenty-five of their number tokeep, and cause to be observed with all their might, thepeace and liberties granted and confirmed to them by thischarter.
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Taxation and representation
Baronial control over the monarch, the royal councils
prerogative to confer and discuss (parler)
No taxation without parliamentary approval
Baronial tax exemption absolutism
(Absolutist France, Spain, Eastern Europe)
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Oil rents limit the need for taxation, thus limited
demands for input and voice
Oil rents allow rulers to make sidepayments toopponents (Saudi Arabia) or concede economicbenefits while limiting political reform
Oil (natural resources) correlates negatively withdemocracy
No taxation no representation !!
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The role of the military
Egypt:
military controls 5-40% of the economy (Marina Ottoway)
Dominant political position
Affinity with U.S. armed forces (positive)
If democratic reform diminishes their role in favor ofIslamists their support for democratic reform might
weaken (Algerian scenario)
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E) New revolutionary dynamics
1. The collective Action Problem
Rebellion comes at individual cost, overall social
benefit free ride
Overcoming the collective action problem: leadership
and prior organization
Knowledge of co-actionists; knowledge of central
governments reaction
The role of new technology?
2. Tipping points and cascade effects:authoritarianism is easier to challenge
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Is communications technology a sufficient glue for a
loose revolutionary movement?
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Home Secretary Theresa May was to chair a
discussion with companies including BlackBerry,
whose encrypted instant chat service took much
of the blame for allowing rioters to coordinate the
four nights of unrest in EnglandSocialnetworking sites Facebook and Twitter would
also be represented at the central London
meeting, said a statement from the Home Office.
(Associated Press August 2011)
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New communications can serve as a means of
mobilization, but also undirected mobs.
They might serve as a check on undemocratic
developments but perhaps not as a long term
organizing force
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Final observations
Historically most revolutions get captured by well
organized groups led by charismatic leaders
Who will be these organized groups in MENA?
How do various Islamic movements comport with
democracy?
Outcomes across the MENA region will
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g
differ
Monarchical dynasties with oil, will likely engage in limited
reforms
Heterogeneous societies (Libya) will face multiple
challenges
Heterogenous societies with oil might be particularly
difficult to govern (Iraq; Sudan)
External interventions can bring regimes down but not
necessarily create a democracy