arab oil exporters: coping with a new global oil...

Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order

Conference Program

November 26-27, 2017, AFESD, Kuwait

Policy Conference on

1 | Policy Conference on Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order November 26-27, 2017 | 2

Our Mission The Economic Research Forum (ERF) is a regional network dedicated to promoting high quality economic research to contribute to sustainable development in the Arab countries, Iran and Turkey.

Our Objectives Established in 1993, ERF’s core objectives are to build strong research capacity in the ERF region, to lead and support the production of independent, high quality eco-nomic research, and to disseminate research output to a wide and diverse audience.

Our Activities To achieve these objectives, ERF carries out a portfolio of activities. These include mobilizing funds for well conceived proposals; managing carefully selected regional research initiatives and providing training and mentoring programs to junior re-searchers. It also includes organizing seminars and conferences based on research outcomes; and publishing research output through multiple channels including working papers, books, policy briefs and through the ERF Policy Portal - The forum.

Our Network The ERF network comprises a distinguished Board of Trustees (BOT), accomplished researchers from the region and highly dedicated head-office staff. A not-for-profit organization, the Forum is supported by multiple donors, both regional and interna-tional.

About ERF


Conference Program

About the Conference

General Information and Logistics

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Program of Sessions

Day One: November 26, 2017

Day Two: November 27, 2017

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List of Participants 20

Speaker Bios 11


ContextThe unexpected decline in oil prices to a level below US$50, 50 percent lower than their peak level in mid-June 2014, marks the end of the commodity super cycle that began in the early 2000s. Though the current oil price plunge is significant, it is not an unprecedented event. Yet, what distinguishes this bust cycle from previous ones is that it is expected to persist into the medium term. Moreover, this trend seems to be primarily due to supply fac-tors resulting from the shale oil revolution in the U.S., weakening global demand, and the U.S. dollar appreciation against other major currencies. The causes and consequences of the re-cent drop in oil prices and the ensuing policy responses have invited heated debates. Nowhere are these debates more relevant than for the Arab region which is blessed with large hydrocarbon endow- ments, holding about half of global oil reserves and a quarter of natural gas re-serves. It also controls close to 33 percent and 14 percent of oil and natural gas pro-duction respectively. For the Arab region, the severe drop in oil revenues is expect-ed to have wide-ranging consequences for the region’s growth and development prospects.

At the heart of the current debate are the following policy questions: What is the

Arab Oil Exporters: Coping with a New Global Oil Order

medium-to-long term outlook for oil pric-es? What is the optimal macroeconomic policy response for Arab oil exporters and importers? Is there room for countercycli-cal macroeconomic policy? What is the role of sovereign wealth funds in short-term stabilization and in economic diver-sification. Can the existing social contract in the GCC survive a prolonged decline in oil prices?

Conference ObjectivesTo better understand the recent dy-namics in global oil markets, their consequences for the Arab region and its future prospects, this conference aims to provide a platform for timely debates and open discussions among a diverse audience including interna-tional experts, regional academics and policymakers. Ultimately, the discussion is meant to be of relevance to policy-makers, especially in the oil-dependent Arab countries. Conference OrganizationThe conference is organized jointly by ERF and the Arab Fund for Economic and So-cial Development (AFESD). It will gather around 100 participants over the course of two days. Each session is structured such that ample time is left for open dis-cussion.


General InformationVenue• The Arab Fund for Economic and Social

Development | Address:- P.O.Box 21923 Safat 13080 – Kuwait – Tel: +965 2495 9300.

Travel Arrangements • Transportation from the airport to the ho-

tel will be provided to all participants.• Kindly travel with a copy of the visa as it is

needed for checking in with airlines in vari-ous airports.

• Upon your arrival in Kuwait, you will be met by a representative from the “Arab Fund for Economic and Social Develop-ment” who will be carrying your original visa.

• In case you miss your airport pickup, or you do not find the representative, please contact Mr. Ajeel Al-Mutoutah on the fol-lowing mobile number +965 99886417 or Mr. Hossam Omar – mobile number +965 99701693.

• In case of any delay in your departure, it is imperative that you send a message or call +20108844995 to inform the person car-rying your visa to arrange for your airport pickup and update your hotel reservation.

Hotel Accommodation • Participants will be residing at: Four Points

Sheraton - Safat 13058/Fahd Al Salem St · P.O. Box 5902 Safat · Kuwait City 13060 · Kuwait · Phone: +965 - 2242 2055 - Fax: +965 2448032/34.

• To speed up the check-in process, please advise the check-in clerk that you are with the Arab Fund Group.

• Kindly note that ERF does not cover ex-penses related to laundry, phone calls (local and long distance), room service, drinks or use of the mini-bar etc.

Meals• Participants covered by ERF should take

their meals at “El Saif” restaurant on the second floor of the hotel. Please sign your room number on the bill.

• Daily breakfast will be served for the participants covered by ERF at “El Saif” restaurant.

Transportation• The trip from The Four Points Sheraton

to the AFESD takes approximately 10 minutes. Buses will be available to trans-port you from the hotel to the confer-ence venue at 8:30 a.m. on November 26 and November 27, 2017.

Welcome Dinner• There will be a welcome dinner on Sun-

day November 26th, 2017, 8:00 pm, at Babel Restaurant.


Day One: nOvember 26, 2017

11:00-11:30 Coffee Break

Session 1: The New Oil Order and the Arab WorldWelcome Remarks and Session Moderator: Abdlatif Al-Hamad, Arab Fund for Economic and Social

Development (AFESD)

Opening Remarks:Ibrahim Elbadawi, Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Diaa Noureldin, American University in Cairo and ERF

Kamiar Mohaddes, University of Cambridge and ERF

Keynote Speaker:Hafez Ghanem, The World Bank and ERFWhat Should Arab Oil Exporters Do in Response to the New Normal?

Perspectives from the Region:Nasser Saidi, Nasser Saidi & Associates and ERFHow Could Arab Oil Exporters Respond to the New Normal?

Open Discussion

There is an emerging consensus among the academic scholarship and the region-al and international development community that the New Oil Order is a game changer for economic policy, especially macroeconomic policy, for oil-dependent economies, and even for non-oil economies in the MENA region. Responding to the challenges posed by the New Oil Order would, therefore, require a paradigm shift in the current type of institutions and policies for managing oil resources as well as the prevailing social contracts that underpinned them. However, the achievement of the envisaged change must be mediated through political economy and local capacity considerations. The objective of this opening session would be to explore the extent to which the desired policy frontier might find home in the unfolding economic and political environment in the region.

09:00-11:00

Registration 08:30-09:00


11:30-13:00

Moderator: Abdulrahman Al-Hamidy, Arab Monetary Fund

Speakers: Majid Al-Moneef, Former Governor of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Saudi Arabia and ERF

Oil Market Outlook: Oil Exporters Adjustment to the New Dynamics

Allison Holland, International Monetary FundSecuring Economic Resilience under the New Oil Order: The Need for Reform

Kamiar Mohaddes, University of Cambridge and ERFOil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?

Open Discussion

As with all markets, lower oil prices will eventually lead to higher demand and lower supplies. The beneficial income effects of lower oil prices will show up in higher oil demand by oil importers including the US, while the loss of revenues by oil exporters will act in the opposite direction but the net effect (at the global level) is likely to be positive. On the supply side, the response to price changes is likely to differ markedly across major oil producers. Non-OPEC producers, particularly US oil producers, tend to respond reasonably quickly and positively (negatively) to oil price rises (falls). In contrast to the US, oil production from OPEC is likely to be less responsive to price changes, with political factors playing a significant role in the process. This means that oil markets equilibrate, but very slowly. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate within a wide range, the ceiling being the marginal cost for US shale oil producers (around $60 per barrel). This episodic process gets further accentuated by new reserve discoveries, technological advances in oil production and alternative energy sources. These issues and others related to oil and mineral markets outlook will be explored in this session.

Session 2: Oil and mineral Markets Outlook and Sectoral Strategiesfor Arab Oil and mineral Exporting Countries

13:00-14:30 Lunch BreakClosed Meeting of the Steering Committeeof the GCC Economic Research Initiative (By invitation only)

Session 3: Adjusting to the new global oil order: The Role of Fiscal and Monetary PoliciesModerator: Yousef H. Al-Ebraheem, Al Diwan Al Amiri, Kuwait and ERF

Keynote Speaker: Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business SchoolFiscal Management of Oil Resources in Booms and Busts

14:30-16:00


Policy Perspectives: Abdullah El-Kuwaiz, Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and ERF Saudi Arabian Fiscal Imbalances : Drop in Oil Prices is a Bless -ing in Disguise

Magda Kandil, Central Bank of the UAE and ERF Macro-Financial Vulnerabilities: The Way Forward for GCC

Open DiscussionZooming in, this session stresses the importance of graduating from discretionary to Rule-based fiscal and monetary institutions. The keynote presentation would ex-plore and assess the effectiveness of various approaches to macroeconomic man-agement of oil resource rents, while the policy perspectives would present experi-ences and outline plans for dealing with emerging challenges.


Despite the volatility and the challenges it presents to macroeconomic manage-ment, a vibrant oil economy has been a huge boon for growth in the Arab world. Now that the resource rents generated from oil will be relatively less abundant, especially for the populous oil Arab economies, deep fiscal adjustments will be re-quired. Achieving high and sustained growth will be a challenge. However, so far, most oil-dependent economies have yet to exploit their potential for structural transformation growth. The key questions here are: how could these countries undertake the required adjustments, while avoiding severe consequences for fu-ture growth; what are the prospects for implementing structural transformation to shore up overall growth; and how could these countries affect growth, promoting structural transformation as happened in East Asia, for example.

Policy Panel I:Sustaining growth in the Arab World in the new global oil orderModerator: Samir Makdisi, American University of Beirut and ERF

Keynote Speaker: Rabah Arezki, World Bank and ERF

Transformation, Not Diversification?

Panelists: Jamel Zarrouk, Dubai Economic Department and ERF

Ishac Diwan, Harvard University and ERF

Dhuha Fadhel, Standard Chartered Bank

Open Discussion

16:30-18:00

20:00- Dinner


Day TwO: nOvember 27, 2017

In addition to their role in short-term macroeconomic stabilization, SWFs play a prominent role in the GCC economies over the longer term being vehicles for na-tional saving and intergenerational wealth transfer. The objective of this session is to discuss the asset allocation strategies of SWFs offering views on the determi-nants of the optimal asset allocation as opposed to the actual drivers of the ob-served allocation for MENA-based SWFs. The discussion will focus on the future outlook for SWFs under the “new normal” in oil prices, touching upon important issues related to the funds’ objective, their potential role in consumption smooth-ing, the interplay between below- and above-ground wealth, in addition to strategic consideration when it comes to asset allocation.

Session 5: How should Saving-Investment Decisions of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) be different in the new context?Moderator: Abdulrazak Alfaris, Dubai Economic Department and ERF

Speakers: Diaa Noureldin, American University in Cairo and ERFStrategies for SWFs: Asset Allocation and Intertemporal Consump-tion Decisions

Christof Rühl, Abu Dhabi Investment AuthorityOil Price Volatility: Non-oil GDP Growth vs. Sovereign Wealth Fund investment

Open Discussion

09:00-10:00

Session 6: Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) as Macro Stabilizer and Promoter of Investment Diversification

10:00-11:30

Moderator: Fatima Al-Shamsi, Paris-Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi

Keynote Speaker:Farouk Bastaki, Kuwait Investment AuthoritySWFs as Macro Stabilizer and Promoter of Investments

Speakers:Ibrahim Elbadawi, Economic Research Forum (ERF)Chahir Zaki, Cairo University and ERFSWFs, Cross-border Investments and Institutions: Are Arab Coun-tries Different?

Raimundo Soto, Catholic University of ChileHoda Youssef, World BankSWFs and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy

Open Discussion


SWFs have been deployed as fiscal institutions for promoting countercyclical mac-roeconomic policy as well as financiers of investments at home and abroad. The keynote speech will discuss the experiences and perspectives by a leading Invest-ment Authority in the MENA region, while the panelists will share evidence from research on the efficacy of the macroeconomic stabilizing role of SWFs; and on the determinants of SWFs cross-border investments.


This panel of former policy makers and experts will critically reflect on past experi-ences and take stock of the main policy messages on the way forward, in terms of institutional and policy responses for an effective response to the unfolding New Oil Order and its potential challenges for development policy in oil and non-oil countries in the MENA region.

Policy Panel II: Coping with the New World Order: Drawing from Practical Experiences and Thinking AheadModerator: Mustapha Nabli, North Africa Bureau of Economic Studies and ERF

Panelists: Ziad Bahaa-Eldin, Former Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Development and ERF

Bassem Awadallah, Former Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Jordan

Abda Yahia El-Mahdi, Former State Minister of Finance and National Economy, Sudan and ERF

Nadir Mohammed, World Bank

El Mouhoub Mouhoud, University of Paris-Dauphine and ERF

Open Discussion

11:45-13:45

13:45-14:45 Lunch


In closing, we take stock of the issues discussed over the course of the two days and provide a briefing about ERF programs for further in-depth research on the implications of the “new normal” in oil prices; strengthening engagement with the policy making community in the region; and enhancing knowledge creation and capacity-building in the GCC in collaboration with GCC universities research centers and policy and development institutions.

Closing Session: Taking Stock and Charting the Way Forward

Moderator: Hafez Ghanem, The World Bank and ERF

Overview: Ibrahim Elbadawi, Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Taking Stock and Future Research: Diaa Noureldin, American University in Cairo and ERF Kamiar Mohaddes, University of Cambridge and ERF The GCC Economic Research Initiative: Yousef H. Al-Ebraheem, Al Diwan Al Amiri, Kuwait and ERF

ERF Policy Outreach: Sherine Ghoneim, Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Open Discussion

14:45-15:30


Speaker biOSOrganized alphabetically by last name

Yousef H. Al Ebraheem serves as the Economic Advisor at the Amiri Diwan in the capacity of a minister. He has served as minister of finance, minister of planning and minister of state for administrative development affairs, and minister of education and higher education. Al Ebraheem has served as the Dean of school of business at Kuwait University and before that held the post of Cultural Counselor/Director at the Cultural Division of the Embassy of the State of Kuwait in Washington, DC. He is a board member of Invest-corp, Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences ( KFAS ), Arab Open University, and Kuwait Institute for Medical Specialization (KIMS). He is also a member of board of advisors of Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University USA and was the chairman and member of the board of directors of the Gulf Investment Corporation. In addition, he has served as vice chairman of Al Mal Investment Company. Al Ebraheem has a Ph.D. in Economics from Claremont Graduate University.

Abdulrazak Alfaris is Director of Economic Planning Division in Poli-cies and Economic Studies Sector at Dubai Economy (DED). He occupied sev-eral academic and official positions, including; Professor of Economics, UAE University, Associate Dean for Scientific Research, College of Business, UAE University, Deputy Secretary General for Economic Affairs and Chief Economic Counselor, Dubai Economic Council, Alternate Executive Director, IMF (1999-2001), Visiting Scholar at Oxford University, MIT, Dundee University, and OPEC. Prior to joining the academia, he held several governmental positions in the UAE, including: Assistant under Secretary for Planning, Ministry of Education (1980-1982). In addition, he worked as a consultant to: UNDP, Crown Prince Court (Abu Dhabi), Ministry of Economy, National Assemble, Dubai municipal-ity, Department of Economy (Dubai), and Economic Advisor to Federation of Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Tanmia. He has numerous articles published in international refereed Journals. He obtained his Ph.D. in Econom-ics, from University of Oxford, April 1990.

Abdlatif Al-Hamad is Director General and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development; Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Economic Research Forum; Trustee, Arab Plan-ning Institute; Member of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) Bank-ing Advisory Board Group (World Bank); Member, the Board of the Kuwait Investment Authority, and Chairman, Development Committee Task Force on Multilateral Development Banks; and Member of the Board of Directors of BlackRock. Since the early 1960s, he has been highly active in promoting economic and social development, particularly in the Arab world. He served as Chairman, the United Bank of Kuwait (1966-1981); and Executive Director,


Majid Al-Moneef is an Advisor to the Royal Court of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Previously, he was the Secretary General of its Supreme Economic Coun-cil and served as its Governor to OPEC and to the organization’s Economic Com-mission Board. He was a member of the Economic and Energy Committee of the Majlis Ash Shura (Consultative Assembly), the Chairman of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Energy Working Group, President of the Saudi Economic Associa-tion, professor of economics at King Saud University. Dr. Al-Moneef is a member of Saudi Aramco’s Board of Directors, the International Advisory Group of King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), the Oxford Energy Policy Club. He was Vice Dean at King Saud University and a member of the Board of Trustees of the Economic Research Forum (ERF), the Offices Council of the International Association of Energy Economics( IAEE) and the editorial Board of the Saudi Economic Journal.

Fatima Al-Shamsi is the Deputy Vice Chancellor for Administrative Affairs at Paris Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi (PSUAD) and a former Secretary General of United Arab Emirates University (UAEU). She held several academic and ad-ministrative positions. She served as a consultant to the UAE National Human Resource Development and Employment Authority. Dr. Al Shamsi’s research in-terests deal with economic development issues and women studies. She has many research publications in refereed academic journals and presented re-search papers in different scientific conferences. Dr. Al-Shamsi is currently the Vice Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Arab Gulf States Institute, Washington

Abdulrahman A. Al Hamidy is the Director General Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors of the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) and Chief Execu-tive Chairman of the Board of the Arab Trade Financing Program (ATFP). Prior to that, H.E. Dr. Al Hamidy was Vice Governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA). He has also served as Deputy Governor for Technical Affairs at SAMA as well as Director General at Economic Research and Statistics and ear-lier as Director of Training, Research and Information, at the Institute of Banking. He has earlier taught Economics at the King Saud University. H.E. Dr. Al Hamidy has also been a member of the Board of Executive Directors in the Arab Mon-etary Fund, Saudi Industrial Development Fund; Saudi Development Fund; Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority; The Council of Cooperative Health Insur-ance and Saudi Stock Exchange Co. (Tadawul). Dr. Al Hamidy is a Saudi national. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Oregon, USA, 1991.

the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (1972-1981). He was Min-ister of Finance and Minister of Planning, Kuwait (1981-1983). Mr. Al-Hamad has also served on numerous commissions and boards, including the United Nations Committee for Development Planning (1982-1991) and Member of the Com-mission on Global Governance 1992.


Bassem Awadallah is the Personal Representative of His Majesty King Abdullah II of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and Special Envoy to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He is the Vice Chairman of the Arab Bank, Jordan, a member of the Board of Directors of Arab National Bank, Saudi Arabia; and a member of the Board of Directors of Al Baraka Banking Group, Kingdom of Bahrain. Previously, he was Minister of Planning and International Coop-eration (2001-2005), Minister of Finance (2005), Director of the Office of His Majesty King Abdullah II (April 2006 - November 2007), and Chief of the Royal Hashemite Court (November 2007 - October 2008). He is also a member of the Advisory Board of the Middle East Centre, of the London School of Economics and Political Science, of the University of London, and is the Vice Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Al-Quds University, in Palestine. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics and Master of Science in Economics degrees from the London School of Economics and Political Science, at the University of London.

Rabah Arezki is the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa Region (MNA) at the World Bank. Previously, Rabah Arezki was the Chief of the Commodities Unit in the Research Department at the International Mon-etary Fund. He also was a senior fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, an external research associate at the University of Oxford, a resource person for the African Economic Research Consortium and a research fellow at the Eco-nomic Research Forum. Mr. Arezki is the author and co-author of numerous academic journal publications and other publications, including the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the World Bank Economic Review, the Economic Jour-nal, the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Development Eco-nomics and Economic Policy. His publications have been cited extensively in academic circles and in prominent media outlets. Mr. Arezki received his Ph.D. in economics from the European University Institute, Florence.

Ziad Ahmed Bahaa-Eldin is an Egyptian Lawyer and expert on fi-nancial law, governance, compliance and economic legislation, Managing Partner in Thebes Consultancy. He is currently a non-executive member on several company Board of Directors including HSBC Bank, the National Bank of Egypt UK, Arabian Cement Company, Emaar Egypt, AXA Egypt, Al-lam Holding and Saray Capital Dubai. He was the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Development and Minister of International Cooperation, Mem-ber of Parliament representing Assiut, Executive Chairman of the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) and the Executive Chairman of the

D.C. and a member of the Board of Trustees of the Economic Research Forum, Cairo, Egypt since 2014. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Exeter, United Kingdom and a Master of Economics from the University of Baltimore, USA.


Farouk Bastaki is the Managing Director (the Group Chief Executive Offi-cer) is also the Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors of KIA. Mr. Bastaki has held numerous positions at the KIA, with the most recent being the Executive Director of Alternative Investment where he was respon-sible for all private equities, real estate, infrastructure, hedge funds and other non-public investments on a global basis. Mr. Bastaki was on different Board of Directors, both domestic and international companies, where he served as Chairman of various entities. Mr. Bastaki is a graduate of University of Miami, USA with degree in Industrial Engineering.

Hilde C. Bjørnland is a Professor of Economics at the BI Norwegian Busi-ness School. Her main area of research is within applied macroeconomics and natural resources. She has published in leading journals such as the Economic Journal, Journal of Monetary Economics and Journal of International Econom-ics. Bjørnland is the Director of the Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP). She is a scientific advisor to Norges Bank and the Ministry of Finance in Norway. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Oslo. She was awarded His Majesty, The King of Norway’s Gold medal for the Ph.D. thesis in social sciences.

Egyptian General Authority for Investment. He is the founder and member of the Board of Directors of the Ahmed Bahaa-Eldin Cultural Foundation, and is a member of the Board of Trustees of the American University in Cairo. He re-ceived his Ph.D. in Financial Law from the London School of Economics, 1997.

Ishac Diwan is the Chair of the Socio-Economy of the Arab World at Paris Sci-ences et Lettres, a consortium of Parisian universities, based at the Paris School of Economics. He is currently a visiting professor at Columbia University. He pre-viously taught at the Harvard University Kennedy School of Government and at New York University. He held several positions at the World Bank, in the Re-search Complex, the Middle East department, and the World Bank Institute and in Addis Ababa and then in Accra, as the East Africa country director, and then in West Africa. His current research interests include political economy of the Mid-dle East, as well as broader development issues. He directs the Economic and Political Transformation program of ERF, where he runs several projects on crony capitalism, analysis of opinion surveys, and role of state in sectarian societies.

Ibrahim Elbadawi is the Managing Director of ERF. Earlier he served as the director of research at the Dubai Economic Council, which he joined in March 2009. Before that, he was lead economist at the Development Research Group of the World Bank, which he joined in 1989. He has published widely on macro-economic and development policy, democratic transitions and the economics of civil wars and post-conflict transitions. He was the thematic leader of the Natural


Abda El-Mahdi is currently the Managing Director of UNICONS Consul- tancy Ltd. an independent economic consultancy firm based in Khartoum, Sudan. Prior to establishing UNICONS, Ms. El-Mahdi served in Sudan’s gov-ernment as State Minister of Finance and National Economy and before that at ERF and in the International Monetary Fund in Washington. She is an ERF Senior Research fellow and serves in the Boards of Directors of several insti-tutions. Having graduated from the University of Khartoum, Ms. El-Mahdi is the holder of a Master of Science in Economics and Mathematical Econom-ics from the London School of Economics and Political Sciences in the United Kingdom.

Abdullah I. El-Kuwaiz (MA, MBA, & Ph.D.) is the First Deputy of the Governing Board of Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, the Chairman of BIC (The investment subsidiary company of BNP Paribas in Saudi Arabia). He is also a board member of a number of philanthropic, academic and business institutions as well as an advisor to a number of private and public regional and international entities, and a member of the Editorial Boards of a number of academic economic journals. He served as Saudi Ambassador to Bahrain, headed a number of major regional financial institutions and served in the board of others, including AMF, AFSED, IDB, and GIB. Also as an Associate Sec-retary General for Economic Affairs 1981 to 1995. He was awarded the Medal of Merit in 1989 by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, and received the Annual Life Accomplishment Award from the Arab Bankers Association of North America in 2001.

Dhuha Fadhel is a Senior Economist with the Thematic Research team at Standard Chartered Bank. She specializes in econometric modelling, and au-thors reports on global themes that are driving financial markets. Previously, Ms. Fadhel worked as a senior economist at Dubai Economic Council (now part of the Department of Economic Development in Dubai). She holds a Mas-ter’s of Science in fiance and banking from the British University in Dubai and a Master’s of Science in economics from the University of Warwick.

Resource Management and Economic Diversification theme at the ERF for fi e years and is a member of the Advisory Board of the Arab Planning Institute. He holds a Ph.D. in economics and statistics from NC State and Northwest-ern Universities. He is the co-editor (with Hoda Selim) of Understanding and Avoiding the Oil Curse in Resource-Rich Arab Economies. Cambridge Univer-sity Press: 2016.


Hafez Ghanem is the Vice President of the World Bank for the Middle East and North Africa since March 2, 2015. He leads the World Bank’s engagement with 20 Middle East and North African countries through a portfolio of ongoing projects, technical assistance and grants worth more than US$13 billion. Prior to his appointment as Vice President, Dr. Ghanem was a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in the Global Economy and Development program leading the Arab economies project. Between 2007 and 2012, he served as the Assistant Director-General at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Dr. Ghanem is a national of Egypt and France and holds a Ph.D. in Eco-nomics from the University of California, Davis.

Sherine F. Ghoneim is Director of Policy and Communications at the Eco-nomic Research Forum (ERF). Prior to that she was with the Global Development Network (GDN) as Director of GDNet – Research Communications from and for the Global South worldwide and the GDN Cairo Office in Egypt. She holds a Mas-ter’s degree from Boston University and a Ph.D. degree from The Management School, Imperial College, UK.

Allison Holland is the Chief of the Regional Studies Division in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Prior to this she has been the Mission Chief for Oman. She has been the Deputy Mission Chief for the 2014 Hong Kong FSAP, IMF. Prior to joining the IMF, Ms. Holland had spent almost twelve years working in the public sector of the UK. First as an economist at the Bank of England, then as the Head of Policy & Analy-sis at the UK Debt Management Office and, finally, as Head of the Debt and Re-serves Management Team at HM Treasury. Ms. Holland is a national of Ireland and holds a BA in Economics and Mathematics from University College Cork and an MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics from the London School of Economics.

Magda Kandil is the Chief Economist and Head of Research and Statistics Department at the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates. Prior to her current position, she worked at the IMF where she held the positions of Advisor to the Executive Director and Senior Economist, as well as a Visiting scholar at the IMF institute and the Research department. She has published extensively on various topics such as debt accumulation, public spending, price flexibility, ex-change rate fluctuations, and macroeconomic policies. She received her Ph.D. in economics from the Washington State University, Pullman, Washington in 1988.


Samir Makdisi is Professor Emeritus of economics and founding directorof the Institute of Financial Economics, the American University of Beirut (AUB). He has served as Minister of Economy and Trade, Republic of Leba-non, 1992 and Deputy President of AUB, 1992-1998; member of the Board of Trustees of the Economic Research Forum and of the Board of Directors of the Euro- Mediterranean Economic Research Institutes (FEMISE). He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University.

Nadir Mohammed is the Country Director of the GCC countries in the Middle East and North Africa region of the World Bank. He worked as Country Economist for Egypt and Yemen (1998-2003), Country Manager for Albania (2003-2007), Director of Operations and Policy, Middle East and North Africa region (2007-2009). Between 2010 and 2012, Dr. Mohammed was on exter-nal assignment from the Bank where he served as acting director of strategy in the Prime Minister’s Office State of Kuwait. He also served as senior adviser in the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) network in 2009 -2010 and 2012-2013. Before joining the Bank, Dr. Mohammed worked the African Development Bank (1994 to 1996) and the Islamic Development Bank (1996 to 1998). He holds M.Phil. and Ph.D. in economics from the Uni-versity of Cambridge.

Kamiar Mohaddes is a Senior Lecturer and Fellow in Economics at Girton College, University of Cambridge. He is an ERF Research Fellow, and serves as its Thematic Co-Leader for the macroeconomics theme. His main ar-eas of research are macroeconomics, global and national macroeconometric modelling, and energy economics. His articles have been published in a num-ber of edited volumes (Cambridge University Press and Routledge) as well as in leading journals, including the Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of International Economics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. His research has also been covered in major international news outlets. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Cambridge.

El Mouhoub Mouhoud is Professor of Economics at University of Paris Dauphine where he teaches international economics. He is the Founding Director of the International research group “Euromediterranean Economic Development Research” (DREEM) of the French ‘Centre National de la Re-cherche Scientifique (CNRS). He his also a Research Fellow of the Economic Research Forum since April 2015. He’s a regular consultant for the World Bank, the OECD, the UNDP and visiting professor in several universities (Institute for the Transregional Study-Princeton, New school for Social Research,…). He obtained his Ph.D. in economics from University of Paris I – Sorbonne, 1991.


Mustapha K. Nabli is an international consultant and the CEO of the North Africa Bureau of Economic Studies International, based in Tunis. He served as Governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia during 2011-2012. Prior to that he was at the World Bank where he held various senior positions: Senior Advisor at the Global Prospects Group, Chief Economist and Director of the Social and Economic Development Department for the Middle East and North Africa Vice-Presidency, and Senior Advisor to the World Bank Chief Economist. From 1990 to 1995 he was Minister of Planning and Regional Development, then Minister of Economic Development in the Government of Tunisia. He also held the posi-tion of Chairman of the Tunis Stock Exchange (1988-1990), and various academ-ic positions before that. He holds a Master’s and a Ph.D. degrees in Economics from the University of California at Los Angeles.

Diaa Noureldin is an Assistant Professor of economics at the American University in Cairo (AUC). He is a research associate and thematic co-leader at the Economic Research Forum, and advisor to the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies. He is an expert in quantitative methods and their applications in macro-economics and finance. He previously consulted for the governments of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as UN organizations involved in economic research and policy. He obtained his doctorate degree in economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining AUC, he was postdoctoral research fellow at the Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance.

Christof H. Rühl is the Global Head of Research at the Abu Dhabi Invest-ment Authority (ADIA). Christof has a distinguished track record as an economist in business, academia and policy formation. From 2005 to 2014 he served as Group Chief Economist and Vice President of BP plc. Between 1998 and 2005 he was at the World Bank, including as the Bank’s Chief Economist in Russia and in Brazil. From 1996-98 he held the position of Principle Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Christof began his career as an academic economist, first at the Universities of Bremen and Hohenheim in Germany, and from 1991 as a Professor of Economics at the University of Califor-nia in Los Angeles (UCLA). His areas of specialization are macroeconomics and energy economics; he is published and quoted widely in these fields.

Nasser Saidi is the Founder & President of Nasser Saidi & Associates. He is the former Chief Economist and Head of External Relations at the Dubai Inter-national Financial Centre and the founder and former executive director of the Hawkamah Institute for Corporate Governance & the Mudara Institute of Direc-tors. Dr. Saidi was the Minister of Economy and Trade and Minister of Industry of Lebanon between 1998 and 2000 and the first Vice-Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon for two successive mandates. Dr. Saidi is a member of the IMF’s Advisory Group for the MENA region and chairs the regional Clean Energy Busi-ness Council. Dr. Saidi holds a Ph.D. and a M.A. in Economics from the University of Rochester in USA.


Raimundo Soto is an Associate Professor of economics, Pontificia Univer sidad Católica de Chile. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Georgetown University. He specializes in macroeconomic theory and econometrics and has published extensively in international journals covering long-run growth, exchange rate misalignment, and monetary policy, as well as corruption, re-source curse, institutions, and fiscal policy. His most recent book is The Econ-omy of Dubai published by Oxford University Press in 2016.

Chahir Zaki is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Faculty of Eco-nomics and Political Science, Cairo University. He is also the Director of the French section at the faculty. Chahir works also for the Economic Research Forum as a part-time senior economist and as a consultant for several inter-national organization. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne. His research interests include international trade, trade policy, trade in services, applied economics and macroeconomic modeling. He has published numerous studies in the International Trade Journal, the World Trade Review, Economic Modeling and Applied Economics.

Hoda Youssef is Senior Economist at the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Management Global Practice of the World Bank. Based in Cairo, she supports the Bank’s efforts to promote evidence based policy making and institutional strengthening through the unit’s work on fiscal and other macroeconomic reforms. Prior to joining the World Bank, Dr. Youssef worked in several international and academic institutions in the MENA region, Europe and the USA, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs of Princ-eton University. She holds Ph.D. in Economics from Sciences-Po Paris, France.

Jamel Zarrouk is Senior Economic Advisor at the Government of Dubai’s Economic Department, and Adjunct Professor of Practice at the New York University, Abu Dhabi. Previously, Dr. Zarrouk worked as Director of Macro- economics and Forecasting, at the Economic Policy & Research Center within Dubai Economic Council; Chief Economist at the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah, and; Research Director at the Arab Monetary Fund (UAE). He has published various research studies on regional trade and development and has recently written articles on the UN and World Bank blogs on the Mer-its of Islamic Finance in achieving sustainable development in the post-2015 global development agenda. Dr. Zarrouk holds a Ph.D. in Economics and was a research scholar at the Institute of Behavioral Science at the University of Colorado at Boulder, USA.


LiST Of parTicipanTSOrganized alphabetically by last name

AHany Abdel-LatifSwansea University [email protected]

Bassam AbuAl-FoulAmerican University of Sharjah [email protected]

Lahcen AchyInternational Monetary Fund Kuwait [email protected]

Fatemah S Akashah National Bank of Kuwait [email protected]

Ahmad Shareef AlawadhiKuwait Institute for Scientific Research [email protected]

Yousef Al-EbraheemThe Amiri Diwan in the Capacity of [email protected]

Mohammed Al-EneziKuwait Institute for Scientific Research [email protected]

Abdulrazak AlfarisDubai Economic Department [email protected]

Marwan Al-GhanemKuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development [email protected]

Abdlatif Al-HamadArab Fund for Economic and Social [email protected]

Abdulrahman Al-HamidyArab Monetary Fund [email protected]

Irfan Al HasaniDepartment of Economic Development- Government of [email protected]

Faten Al JabshehKuwait Institute for Scientific Research [email protected]

Ali AljamalThe American University of Kuwait [email protected]

Ibrahim Al Karsany Dubai Economic Department [email protected]

Majid Al Moneef Advisor to the Royal CourtSaudi Arabia [email protected]

Omar Al-NakibThe National Bank of [email protected]

Saif Khalifa R. Al ShaaliDepartment of Economic Development [email protected]

Fatima Al-ShamsiParis-Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi [email protected]

Alanoud Alsharekh Kuwait [email protected]

Abdulmajeed AlshattiSupreme Petroleum Council Kuwait [email protected]


Wael M.AlshuwaieeCollege of Business Studies Kuwait [email protected]

Hassan AlyNile University Egypt [email protected]

Khamis Hamed Al-YahyaeeSultan Qaboos University Oman [email protected]

Khalid Al-ZoumanBurgan Bank Group Kuwait [email protected]

Rabah ArezkiWorld Bank [email protected]

Sami AtallahLebanese Center for Policy [email protected]

Bassem AwadallahFormer Minister of Planning and International Coopera-tionJordan [email protected]

BMohsen BagniedThe American University of Kuwait [email protected]

Ziad Bahaa-EldinFormer Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Develop- mentEgypt [email protected]

Abdel-Hameed BashirIslamic Development Bank Saudi Arabia [email protected]

Farouk BastakiKuwait Investment Authority Kuwait [email protected]

Elias BikhaziNational Bank of Kuwait [email protected]

Hilde BjørnlandBI Norwegian Business School Norway [email protected]

DIshac DiwanHarvard University [email protected]

EIbrahim ElbadawiEconomic Research Forum Egypt [email protected]

Abdullah El-KuwaizOxford Institute of Energy Studies Saudi Arabia [email protected]

Abda Yahia El-MahdiFormer State Minister of Finance and National EconomySudan [email protected]

Chaker El-MostafaThe National Bank of Kuwait [email protected]


FDhuha Fadhel Standard Chartered Bank [email protected]

Yasmine FahimEconomic Research Forum [email protected]

GYousuf GarashiKuwait University Kuwait [email protected]

Hafez GhanemWorld Bank [email protected]

Sherine Ghoneim Economic Research Forum Egypt [email protected]

HMohammed HaiderSenior Advisor Kuwait [email protected] HollandInternational Monetary Fund [email protected]

Muna HusainKuwait University Kuwait [email protected]

IHosam IbrahimWorld Food [email protected]

Musa Jega IbrahimIslamic Development Bank Saudi Arabia [email protected]

Mahmoud A. IrianiKuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development [email protected]

JFaiza JaafarEconomic Research Forum [email protected]

KBassem KamarInternational Monetary Fund [email protected]

Ossama KanaanInternational Monetary Fund [email protected]

Nemr KanafaniThe National Bank of Kuwait [email protected]

Magda KandilCentral Bank of the United Arab Emirates [email protected]


Fida KaramGulf University for Science and Technology [email protected]

Daniel KayeNational Bank of Kuwait [email protected]

Hassan KhudrCentral Bank of Kuwait Kuwait [email protected]

Khalid M. KisswaniGulf University for Science and Technology [email protected]

LImed LimamArab Fund for Economic and Social DevelopmentKuwait [email protected]

MSamir MakdisiAmerican University of Beirut Lebanon [email protected]

Wasseem MinaUnited Arab Emirates University [email protected]

Kamiar MohaddesUniversity of Cambridge [email protected]

Nadir MohammedWorld Bank [email protected]

Paul Moreno-LopezWorld Bank [email protected]

Hanan MorsyEuropean Bank for Reconstruction and Development [email protected]

El Mouhoub MouhoudUniversity of Paris Dauphine France [email protected]

NMustapha NabliNorth Africa Bureau of Economic Studies [email protected]

Diaa NoureldinThe American University in Cairo Egypt [email protected]

RFiras RaadWorld Bank Kuwait [email protected]

Christof RühlAbu Dhabi Investment Authority [email protected]

SAli Al SadekDubai Economic Department [email protected]


Abdulkarim SadikKuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development [email protected]

Nasser SaidiNasser Saidi & Associates Lebanon [email protected]

Rafik SelimEuropean Bank for Reconstruction and Development [email protected]

Raimundo SotoCatholic University of Chile Chile [email protected]

Kabbashi M. SulimanUniversity of Khartoum Sudan [email protected]

TMohamed TrabelsiInternational Monetary Fund [email protected]

VRomesh VaitilingamEconomics Writer [email protected]

YHoda YoussefWorld Bank [email protected]

Jeff YoussefOliver Wyman Company [email protected]

Jala YoussefEconomic Research Forum [email protected]

Mohamed YoussriEconomic Research Forum [email protected]

ZChahir ZakiCairo University Egypt [email protected]

Jamel ZarroukDubai Economic Department [email protected]

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