April 10, 2007

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Reno, NevadaMay 8-12, 2011

Presented by:Jaesup Lee, Virginia Department of TransportationPaul Agnello, Virginia Department of TransportationPatrick Coleman, AECOM

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Overview

1. Project under consideration

2. Potential travel markets for new facility

3. Forecasting tool (soon to be) available

4. Potential Forecasting Methodology

5. Questions

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Proposed Project

South of US 17 in Spotsylvania County to just south of Route 234 in Prince William County

Proposed to operate as HOV (and Bus)/HOT facility

Overlaps/connects with I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes project (to DC area)

Source: USDOT/FHWA/VDOT, Environmental Assessment,I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes Project, August 2010

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

The project, con’t.

Two-lane, reversible, limited access express route in I-95 median

Buses, HOV-3, and motorcycles travel free

Electronic tolling (EZPASS) for other users – rate could vary by time of day, travel speed, etc.

Conceptual operations plan:

Midnight to 10 am – northbound

10 am to noon – closed for switchover

Noon to 10 pm – southbound

10 pm to midnight – closed for switchoverSource: USDOT/FHWA/VDOT, Environmental Assessment,I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes Project, August 2010

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Potential Travel Market- Person Trips to DC Core

Downtown DC Rest of DCAround

Pentagon TotalHBW 5,000 1,500 2,900 9,400HBShop 300 0 0 300HBO 0 400 40 440NHB 1,300 2,200 1,000 4,500Total 6,600 4,100 3,940 14,640

Source: 2009 NHTS Virginia Add On Version 2

I-95

Project

Year 2009 Average Weekday Person Trips

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Potential Travel Market - Travel to DC Core by Transit

Virginia Railway Express (VRE)

Fredericksburg Line

Potomac and Rappahannock Transportation Commission (PRTC) Commuter Buses

R1 Dale City 1,730

R4 Montclair 1,124

R2 Lake Ridge 1,461

Pr. William Metro Direct 1,230

R6 Rosslyn/Ballston 1,068

R5 Route 1/South Rt 1 797

Total 7,410

Source: 2007 VRE On Board Survey

Source: 2008 MWCOG Regional Bus Survey

Other private commuter bus operators

Fredericksburg 1,103Leeland Road 749Brooke 382Quantico 387Rippon 478Woodbridge 486Lorton 412Franconia/Springfield 224Alexandria 511Crystal City 865L'Enfant 1,274Union Station 714Total 7,584

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Slug Travel Market (We’re not talking Mollusks)!

Source: www.sluglines.com

Unique to DC area (and maybe SF)

Casual carpools

Pick up/drop off at designated areas

Free ride, drivers get HOV access

“Slug” coined by bus operators – similar to counterfeit tokens

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Slugs, con’t.

TimeSlug Drivers

*Slug Riders

*Slug Line VP Drivers VP RidersMartz Bus

RidersWhite Bus

RidersQuicks Bus

Riders

Fred Shuttle Riders

Route 610/Stafford

4:30-9:00 AM 360 78 643 21 57 142 26 16 86:00-9:00 PM 328 63 550 15 50 94 0 0 8Mine Road/Stafford

4:30-9:00 AM 235 55 427 22 45 4 4 21 5096:00-9:00 PM 187 44 303 6 15 4 4 20 396Route 234/Dumfries

4:30-9:00 AM 376 62 510 25 119 333 0 53 6326:00-9:00 PM 340 56 449 14 74 149 0 51 553Route 17/Fredericksburg

4:30-9:00 AM 146 29 202 16 34 80 46 3 86:00-9:00 PM 120 22 139 1 2 23 0 0 7Route 3 Gordon Road/Fredericksburg

4:30-9:00 AM 77 20 141 16 48 19 26 34 1196:00-9:00 PM 43 9 73 2 6 0 10 23 91

*Slug Riders = slug passengers already in vehicle when arrived at lot

*Slug Line = number of arrivals to slug line

All numbers shown above are averages for 3 days - 11/16/2010, 11/17/2010 and 11/18/2010

Source: SIR/VDOT, Survey of Northern Virginia Sluggers, January 2011

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

The Tool - Fredericksburg Area MPO (FAMPO) model

Current Version (3)

Assigns highway trips to three time periods (AM Peak, PM Peak, Off Peak)

Models HOT lanes using a diversion curve from I-394 MnPass project

Contains a process to estimate Virginia Railway Express (VRE) commuter rail trips from Fredericksburg to Washington, DC area

No full mode choice

Version 4 under development

Part of VDOT Major Models Update plan

Updated trip generation/distribution using NHTS Virginia Add On

Final highway assignment in four time periods (AM Peak, Midday, PM Peak, Night)

Revised volume-delay functions (and forecast tolling methodology)

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

More FAMPO model enhancementsExpanded model area to include the southern Prince William County

region below the Occoquan River.The zones, nodes and links are from the NCRTPB model network (v2.2

with 2191 zones) and renumbered

Select link analysis procedures in the NCRTPB model to obtain the additional trip flows from/to southern Prince William County

Transit networks coded and skim procedures set up for the “regular” transit (FRED buses and VRE feeders) and “commuter” transit (PRTC, MARTZ, QUICK and VRE routes).

Full mode choice modelsInternal trip purposes (FRED Routes)

Commuter (HBW IE) trip purpose (travel on I-95 corridor to DC area)

CUBE Scripts and catalogs consistent with other VDOT models

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Fredericksburg Expanded Model Area

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Updated FredericksburgHighway Network

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Potential Forecasting Methodology

No existing toll facility in immediate area

No available Stated Preference (SP) survey in corridor

Current FAMPO model uses toll diversion curve on experience in Minnesota (SP data from I-394 MnPASS Express Lanes)

New model will use a logit-type assignment based procedure

start with South Florida SP data

addresses differing values of time

constants to capture reliability and other unquantifiable aspects

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Toll Choice Model from South Florida

County Purpose

Time Coefficient

Cost Coefficient

Value of Time ($/hr)

Toll Free Constant

HBW -0.052 -0.372 $8.32 0.697

HBO -0.051 -0.422 $7.17 0.706

NHB -0.056 -0.341 $9.82 0.477

HBW -0.025 -0.141 $10.65 0.5

HBO -0.031 -0.353 $5.33 0.227

NHB -0.043 -0.467 $5.53 0.068

HBW -0.039 -0.25 $9.34 0.23

HBO -0.042 -0.299 $8.41 0.519

NHB -0.03 -0.162 $10.91 0.471

Broward

Miami-Dade

Palm Beach

Source: RSG, Documentation for South Florida SP Travel Survey and Toll Mode Choice Models, July 2006

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

$5 toll comparison between MSP and South Florida

Illustrates differing VOTs by region

For 20 minute savings 20% toll in MSP but 30% in South Florida

Source: AECOM

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Potential Implementation in Fredericksburg

Coefficients:

Transfer Palm Beach coefficients to the FAMPO model

Adjust cost coefficients to reflect differences in income between Palm Beach County and Fredericksburg

Examine Dulles Toll Road SP survey for more localized VOTs

Constants:

Not transferable due to unique nature of travel in South Florida

No existing facility in Fredericksburg for calibration

Use a relatively close Peer facility to do a simple “calibration” in a spreadsheet

Careful testing to ensure any modeled results are reasonable

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Dulles Greenway – potential peer facility

12.5 mile privately owned toll road in Northern Virginia

Connects end of Dulles (Airport) Toll Road with the Leesburg Bypass (U.S. 15/SR 7)

Best regional candidate because of “base” and “congestion management” toll rates and electronic (EZPASS) discounts similar to many HOT lanes

Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference

Questions?