FILE COPYReport No. 575-MAI

Appraisal of theSecond Highway ProjectMalawiNovember 15, 1974

Regional Projects DepartmentEastern Africa Regional Office

Not for Public Use

Documnent of the tntemational Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentInternational Development Association

This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may notbe published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group doesnot accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.

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CURRENCY UIVALENTS '

Currency Unit = Malawi Kuacha (MK)US$ 1 = IMK 0.83MK I = US$ 1.20MK 1,000 = US$ 1,200HK 1,000,000 = US$ 1,200,000

1J The exchange rate of the Halawi Kavacha is determined dailyby the Malawi Central Bank to equal a weighted average of thevalue of the Pound Sterling and the US dollar. The aboverates reflect the situation at the time of appraisal inMarch 1974.

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

1 foot (ft) = 0.305 meters (m)1 square foot (sq ft) = 0.093 square meters (m2 )1 mile (mi) = 1.609 kilometers (km)1 square mile (sq mi) = 2.590 square kilometers (k2)1 acre = 0.405 hectares (ha)1 ton (t) = 0.907 metric tons (m ton)

GLOSSARY OF ABBSEVIA.TIO

EIU - Economist Intelligence UnitGDP - Gross domestic productMTC - Ministry of Transport and CommunicationsMWS - Ministry of Works and SuppliesODA - Overseas Development AdministrationSWXP - Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick and PartnersUSAID - United States Agency for International Developmentvpd - vehicles per day

GOVERNMENT OF MAIAWIFISCAL YEAR

April 1 - March 31

MALAWI

APPRAISAI. OF THE SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ......................... i

1. INTRODUCTION .......................... 1

2. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR .......................... 1

A. Economic Setting ............... 1., .......... 1

B. The Transport System ...... ................. 9

C. Transport Policy and Coordination .... ...... 4

3. HIGHWAYS ...................... 5

A. Administration ............................. 5

B. Characteristics and Growth of Road Traffic.. 6

C. Planning and Financing . .................... 7

D. Engineering .................. 7

E. Construction ............... I....,., 7

F. Maintenance ................. I............ 8

4. THE PROJECT ........................ 8......

A. Description ............................... 8

- Road Improvement ...... ........... 9- District Roads Pilot Program . ............ 9

B. Execution .... I............... 10C. Cost Estimates .................. 11

D. Financing and Disbursements ......

5. ECONOMIC EVALUATION ........... I ...... 12

6. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ,. 14

This report was prepared by Messrs. K.G. Clare (ecoon1aist), P. Ludwig(engineer), and Miss J. Murphy (editor).

TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)

TABLES:

1. Highway Network

2. .Vehicle Fleet

3. Current and Planned Road Projects

4. Annual Highway Expendit:ures

5. Road Design Standards Adopted by the MWS

6. Design Standards for the Lilongwe-Kasungu Road

7. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements

8. Projected Average Daily Traffic on Project Road

9. Vehicle Operating Costs, by Type of Road

10. Lilongwe-Kasungu Road: Economic Costs and Benefits

CHART: Organization of the Ministry of Works and Supplies (8983)

MAP: Malawi - Transportatiorn. Network (IBRD 11135)

MALAWI

APPRAISAL OF THE SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

i. The present road network in Malawi provides a widely scatteredrural population with vital access to markets, educational and health facili-ties and other Government services. Most of the road system, however,consists of earth roads which in many cases are impassable during the rainyseason. Both road improvements and better maintenance are essential toenhance the reliability of road transport and lower transport costs for agri-cultural produce.

ii. The Lilongwe-Kasungu road (about 70 miles) is an important link inthe national highway system, connecting the new national capital with theadministrative headquarters and marketing center of the Kasungu District tothe north. It traverses one of the principal agricultural areas of thecountry where several major agricultural development schemes are underway,assisted in part by the Association. There is no practical alternativemeans of transport in the area served by this road; its poor condition atpresent, however, results in high transport costs which are an impedimentto economic growth. The purpose of the proposed project is to reduce trans-port costs by improving the road to a two-lane paved standard. The necessaryfeasibility and engineering studies were financed by the United NationsDevelopment Programme with the Bank as executing agency.

iii. The project comprises (a) improvement of the Lilongwe-Kasungu roadincluding a bypass around an industrial area and reconstruction of theLingadzi Bridge in Lilongwe, and (b) a pilot program for improving the main-tenance of district roads, including provision of equipment and technicalassistance to a selected district and planning for extending the program.The total cost of the project is estimated at US$12.50 million, with a foreignexchange component of US$7.50 million (60%). The IDA credit of US$10.00million will cover all of the foreign costs and US$2.50 million of the localcosts, or 80% of the total.

iv. The Roads Department of the Ministry of Works and Supplies will beresponsible for the execution of the project; consultants will provideassistance to the Department for supervision of construction. Award of con-struction contracts will be based on international competitive bidding inaccordance with Bank/IDA guidelines. Two years will be required for construc-tion. The small amount of maintenance equipment (US$36,000) will be procuredlocally under normal Government procedures.

v. Improvement of the Lilongwe-Kasungu road will result in significantsavings in vehicle operating costs and road maintenance costs. The projectis well justified, yielding an overall economic return of 14%.

vi. The project is suitable for an IDA credit of US$10.00 million tothe Government of Malawi.

MALAWI

APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

1. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The proposed highway improvement project has evolved from economic

feasibility and engineering studies financed by the United Nations Develop-

ment Programme, with the Bank as executing agency. In 1972-73, the British

consultants, Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick and Partners (SWKP) in association

with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) carried out feasibility studies for

two roads radiating from Lilongwe: one to the Zambia border via Mchinji and

the second to Mzimba via Kasungu. Following the feasibility studies, the

Government accepted an offer from the United States Agency for International

Development (USAID) to finance both engineering and construction of the

Lilongwe-Zambia border road and American consultants were subsequently engaged

to complete its engineering. With regard to the Mzimba road, the feasibility

studies indicated that improvement of the Lilongwe-Kasungu section would be

economically justified, and SWKP completed detailed engineering of this

section in early 1974. The Government has asked the Association to help

finance its construction as well as, at the recommendation of the Association,

a pilot program for the maintenance of district roads for which no suitable

organization exists; together these make up the proposed project.

1.02 The Bank Group has been Lavolved in the transport sector of Malawi

since 1966 when Credit S2-MAI was made to help finance detailed engineering

of the Zomba-Lilongwe road (180 miles). This was followed in 1968 by Credit

112-MAI of US$11.5 million for the reconstruction and bituminous paving of

that road, completed satisfactorily in 1972. In addition, agricultural

projects in the lower Shire Valley and the Lilongwe area have included con-

struction of about 1,300 miles of crop extraction roads, while t'ne Karonga

Rural Development Project includes port improvements at Chilumba and Chipoka

on Lake Malawi as well as procurement of a self-propelled barge for the lake

service.

1.03 This report is based on the above-mentioned studies and on the

findings of an appraisal mission to Malawi in March 1974, comprising

Messrs. K.G. Clare (economist) and P. Ludwig (engineer). The report wasedited by Miss J. Murphy.

2. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

A. Economic Setting

2.01 Malawi is a landlocked country in central southeastern Africa on

the western shore of Lake Malawi. The country is divided into three admin-

istrative regions and, though relatively small in land area (37,000 sq mi),

is quite elongated, presenting problems for economic and political integration.

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The terrain consists largely of a plateau about 4,500 feet high, withmountains in the north rising to 3,000 feet and the Shire Valley in theextreme south, only about 300 feet above sea level.

2.02 The population, increasing at an annual rate of 2.5%, totals about4.3 million, most of whom live in rural areas. The average populationdensity is 127 per sq mi, but exceeds 260 per sq mi in the most productiveagricultural areas of the Southern and Central Regions. The Southern Regionis the most economically active part of the country and Blantyre is theprincipal commercial center. To stimulate development of th1e Central andNorthern Regions, Lilongwe is being developed as a new national capital andmany government departments have already been relocated there from the oldcapital of Zomba.

2.03 The major economic activity is agriculture and, because or 1imita-tions in other resources, Malawi'3 exports are almost entirely agricultural(95%). The principal export prodicts are tea, tobacco, groundnuts andcotton. Gross domestic product (3KDP), at constant market prices, increasedover the period 1964-73 by an average of 8" per year. Per capita GDP isestimated at US$104 and Malawi is thus classified as one of the "leastdeveloped" countries of the world.

B. The Transport System

2.04 The domestic transport ;ystem comprises about 6,750 miles of road,about 440 miles of railway, shippLng on Lake Malawi and regular air servicesto nine airports and airfields. hie main transport facilities are fairlywell developed in the southern ia.Lf of the courntry where economic activity isgreatest, but many rural areas, and particularly most of the northern halfof the country, do not have reliable all-weather connections with administra-tive and market centers. For internal trade, road transport predominateswhile most export and import traf'ic is carried by the railway, whichconnects with Indian Ocean ports ria rail lines through neighboring Mozambique.

Highways

2.05 Some 774 miles (11%) of tne approximately 6,750 miles of roads arepaved and an additional 315 miles (5%) are engineered gravel standard; therest are earthn roads. Road densil:y, amounting to 180 miles per 1,000 sq mior 1.4 miles per 1,000 inhabitants, is about average compared to other coun-tries at a similar stage of development; the extremely poor quiality of mostof the network results, however, in high transport costs. Thiough data arescarce, the Association estimates that road transport accounted for some270 million ton-miles in 1972 or almost two-thirds of total freight trafficin the country. Details concernirg highways and thl-eir administration aregiven in Chapter 3.

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Railways

2.06 The main railway line extends from Salima in the Central Region,through Blantyre, to the extreme southern border (276 mi) where it connectswith the Mozambique line to the port of Beira. A recently completed branchline (63 mi) offers an alternative route to the sea, extending eastwardfrom Nkaya and connecting with the Mozambique line to the port of Nacala onthe Indian Ocean. An extension westward from Salima to Lilongwe is planned,financing for which has recently been obtained from the Canadian Governmentwhich is also helping to finance rehabilitation of the older, main line.

2.07 In 1972, the railway carried about 1.1 million tons of freight andabout 990,000 passengers. Despite the loss of some traffic due to increasingroad competition, rail traffic, in terms of ton-miles, has grown at an averageof more than 12% annually since 1964, largely because of increasing import-export traffic. In 1972, the railway accounted for about 136.1 millionton-miles or almost one-third of total freight transport, with imports andexports accounting for one-half to two-thirds of the total and over 70% ofrail revenue.

Lake Transport

2.08 Freight and passenger transport on Lake Malawi is provided by LakeService Limited, a subsidiary of Malawi Railways. Although traffic volumeshave been relatively light, amounting to only an estimated 28,000 tons offreight and some 105,700 passengers in 1972, lake transport provides animportant alternative means of transport for the remote northern areas ofthe country. At present about three-quarters of the traffic is northbound,originating at Chipoka which is served by the railway, but this pattern willchange as the impact of ongoing development projects in the north is felt,notably the Karonga Rural Development Project being financed by IDA Credit282-MAI. In addition, lake transport will increase sharply if a proposed pulpmill at Chinteche in the Northern Region is developed in connection with theViphya timber exploitation scheme for which an IDA credit of US$2 millionhas recently been made to determine the infrastructure needs.

Air Transport

2.09 Air Malawi, a Government-owned airline, provides domestic serviceto nine airports within the country as well as to several neighboringcountries. Only the airport at Chileka, near Blantyre, can handle long-rangejet aircraft; it serves as the country's international airport and is alsothe most important domestically because of its proximity to commercial andgovernmental centers. Some 224,200 passengers and 2,200 tons of freight werehandled there in 1972. Following a recent feasibility study, the Governmenthas decided to develop a second international airport at Lilongwe for whichit is seeking financing.

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C. Transport Policy and Coordination

2.10 Malawi's present transport policy has three broad aims: (i) toimprove the administrative, social and economic integration of the countryby linking all three regions withi reliable all-weather connections; (ii) toencourage agricultural development by improving access to rural areas; and(iii) to assure efficient and reLiable access to tlhe sea for the transportof exports and imports. To theste ends, the Government is undertaking anextensive transport development program: numerous road studies are inprogress and, as stated above, investments are planned or underway in rail,lake and air transport. The Government's "Statement of Development Policies1971-1980" fixes prospective investment in transport at about US$132 nillionequivalent or about 30% of total public investment projected for the period.

2.11 Coordination of transport planning is the responsibility of theEconomic Planning Division of the Office of the President and Cabinet afterreview of proposals put forward '.y the several ministries concerned; mostimportantly, the Ministry of Works and Supplies (MWS) for roads and theMinistry of Transport and Communications (MTC) for all other modes. Inpractice, such coordination has been lacking, however, because of limitedstaff within the Economic Planning Division, and development of each modehas proceeded almost independently of the others. While modal developmenthas so far tended to be complementary rather than competitive, severalinvestments about to be undertaken strongly suggest the need for an adequateanalysis of the trade-offs between competing modes; i.e., extension of tilerailway to Lilongwe and the construction of a lake coastal road. Suchi analy-sis nay be possible for future planning as the Economic Planning Divisionhas recently employed a transport economist with experience in tilis field.Also, a U.K.-financed consulta.t is undertaking a one-ycar transport planningstudy for the Division aimed al assessing the development priorities in tilesector for the period 1975-1985.

2.12 The Government exercises considerable control over the transportsector through ownership of major carriers; i.e., Air Malawi and .IalawiRailways, including the latter's two subsidiaries: Lake Service Limitedwhich handles nearly all transport on Lake Malawi and Road Motor ServicesLimited, a large trucking company. The Government-owned entities are underthe jurisdiction of the MTC which is also responsible fcr regulating privatecarriers, mainly those in road transport. These regulations are not severeas entry into the road transport industry is relatively unrestricted; whilepermits from the I'UTC are required for either hauling one's own goods orproviding for-hire service, applizants need only demonstrate financialresponsibility and nominal demand. In practice, permits are issued freelyand there are numerous small privite truckers.

2.13 Transport rates for all modes are fixed by the MTC. While nomajor distortions appear to exist at present, there are indlications thatdistortions may appear as competio-iori among modes incre:ases and the situationslhould be watched. For example, Whe railway hlas been reluctant to raise its

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rates in the face of increasing road competition and certain commodities,notably agricultural products, do not appear to be paying their full cost.

3. HIGHWAYS

A. Administration (see Chart)

3.01 The 6,750 mile road network (Table 1) is classified as follows:1,920 miles of main road connecting principal cities, 1,500 miles of secon-dary roads linking main roads and smaller centers, 3,130 miles of districtroads serving as farm-to-market or feeder routes, and 200 miles of roadswith various other designations serving particular towns or estates. Inaddition, there are several thousand miles of unclassified earth tracks forwhich no organization bears responsibility.

3.02 The Roads Department of the MWS has responsibility for planning,construction and maintenance of all classified roads except those designatedas district roads whose maintenance is the responsibility of the DistrictCouncils. Divisional offices in each of the three regions are directlyresponsible for field operations while planning and overall supervision arehandled by the headquarters staff, located at Lilongwe. Equipment is rentedfrom the tIWS's Plant and Vehicle Hire Organization which has workshops ineach of the regions, including a central workshop in Blantyre for major re-pairs. The Ministry's Design Department has responsibility for the engineer-ing of roads and bridges as well as the design of water supply installations.

3.03 M5any of the senior staff in the MWS, including most engineers, areexpatriate civil servants provided through an aid program of the BritishOverseas Development Administration under 2 to 2-1/2 year contracts. Of the55 engineering posts, 37 are filled, only six of them by Malawian engineers.The Roads Department has only seven engineers at headquarters, all of themexpatriates. Notwithstanding the vacancies and discontinuity of servicecaused by the short contract periods, the performance of the MWS has beengood and its functional organization appears sound. The Government has anactive program for selecting, educating and training nationals for seniortechnical positions, but it has so far yielded few qualified personnel,largely because of the high cost and long periods of time required forprofessional training which has had to be undertaken abroad. Training forsenior positions in the administration is being provided under bilateral aid,mainly ODA, and fellowships under the UNDP grant which financed preparationof this project. Moreover, the Malawi Polytechnic is developing its capabilityin this area, and the need to send engineers abroad for training will graduallydiminish. Considerable progress has been made in training lower echelonpersonnel such as road supervisors, foremen, equipment operators and me-chanics.

3.04 Road use is regulated by the W.C under laws which cover suchmatters as limits on vehicle weights and dimensions, vehicle and driving

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licenses, vehicle inspection, speed limits and weight control. Vehicledimensions and weight regulations are generally adequate, but enforcement,which is the responsibility of the national police, has been lax, probablybecause the potential for abuse is presently minimal as the vast majority oftrucks are of very small capacity (para. 3.05). While there have been noserious consequences so far, there is a trend to somewhat larger vehicles,and during negotiations assurances were obtained from the Government thatvehicle weight and size regulations consistent with the structural and geo-metric design of roads will be adequately enforced.

B. Characteristics and Growth of Road Traffic

3.05 The composition and growth of the vehicle fleet is shown inTable 2. In 1973, there were an estimated 10,850 automobiles, 8,650 goodsvehicles and 280 buses, with the vehicle fleet as a whole having grown at anaverage of 6.3% annually since 1967. Most goods vehicles are small trucksand vans of less than 3-ton capacity, and only 3% of the privately-ownedfleet is more than 10-ton capacity. Nearly one-third of the commercialvehicle fleet is operated by United Transport, a private company, and byRoad Motor Services Limited, a subsidiary of Malawi Railways. There are,however, many small operators, about 60% of whom have only one truck.

3.06 Road users contribute to Government revenue through taxes andduties on fuel, lubricants, vehicles and spare parts and through licensesand registration fees. The duty on gasoline amounts to US$0.25/IMg and ondiesel fuel to US$0.11/IMg while duties on vehicles range from 17.5% to 45%depending on the vehicle size and country of origin. On all imports, asurtax of 12% of the value plus duty is also charged. No specific data areavailable on total revenues collected from road users but the rates chargedare similar to those of other developing countries and, as elsewhere, roadusers appear to be making a substantial contribution to Government revenues.However, the data available do not permit a comparison with actual expenditureson roads.

3.07 Consultants have conducted traffic counts on roads proposed formajor improvements, but traffic counts have not been made on a systematicbasis and consequently little is known about road traffic trends in the coun-try. However, while the growth rate of road traffic in recent years is notknown directly, data on fuel imports over the past decade indicate that traf-fic is growing at about 7-9% annually. The Government has indicated itsintention to initiate a program of periodic traffic counts on selective roadsand thus the outlook is that better traffic data will be forthcoming in thenear future. During negotiations, the Association received assurances thatsuch traffic data will be collected regularly so that properly planned roaddevelopment can take place.

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C. Planning and Financing

3.08 Each year the MWS submits proposals for highway improvements tothe Office of the President and Cabinet, whose Development Division isresponsible for preparing a rolling three-year development program afteranalysis by the Office's Economic Planning Division whose capacity in thisregard, as mentioned above, has recently been strengthened. A summary ofpresent and current road projects is presented in Table 3.

3.09 Highway expenditures (Table 4) are financed from the general budgetor, for new construction, from the development account which is largely madeup of grants and credits from bilateral and multilateral aid programs.Expenditures on construction have averaged about US$6.4 million equivalentannually over the past four years. Recurrent highway expenditures have grownconsiderably in recent years (from about US$990,000 in 1967 to some US$2.6million in 1974), but remain far short of actual needs (para. 3.14).

D. Engineering

3.10 Some preliminary investigations and road and bridge designs arecarried out by the MWS's well-staffed Design Department, consisting of some66 engineers, technicians and surveyors, and a well-equipped laboratory formaterials and soils testing. For major road projects, however, engineeringstudies are done by consultants. The design standards adopted by the MWS(Table 5) are appropriate for the country's topographic and traffic conditions.

E. Construction

3.11 In recent years, the Roads Department has undertaken several roadconstruction projects (about US$2.5 million equivalent annually) using itsown equipment and staff and employing direct labor. Its performance in thishas proved quite satisfactory. For major road projects, or whenever its ownresources are fully committed, the Department employs contractors followingsuitable prequalification and tendering procedures and contracts aregenerally let on a unit-price basis.

3.12 Although some small domestic contractors exist in the country, theircapacity is limited and major works can only be undertaken by foreign con-tractors who have in the past shown considerable interest in working inMalawi (para. 4.09). Construction supervision is carried out by the RoadsDepartment or by consulting engineers acting as its representative. Paymentprocedures are prompt and the experience of the MWS in dealing with contrac-tors has been satisfactory.

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F. Maintenance

3.13 The Regional Divisions of the MWS are responsible for maintainingthe classified road system with t:he exception of district roads. Unfortu-nately, the District Councils, wlkich have responsibility for the latter, havebeen unable to maintain them because of inadequate staff, funds and mainten-ance capacity, and district roads; have largely been neglected thereby hinder-ing agricultural development. A pilot program for district roads will becarried out under the project to determine how they might best be developedand maintained (paras. 4.07-4.08).

3.14 The Roads Department's maintenance operations are largely mechanized,though manual labor is used when feasible. Because of problems with avail-ability of equipment, the MWS in 1971 created the Plant and Vehicle HireOrganization which is responsible for procuring and maintaining all Government-owned equipment and vehicles; it rents equipment to the Roads Department atrates based on the cost of purchasing and maintaining the equipment. As aresult of this centralized management, availability and utilization of equip-ment have improved substantially. Despite this, however, and the existenceof a reasonably well-trained cadre of maintenance personnel in each of theregions, the level of maintenance operations is not adequate, largely becausethe funds allocated for this function have been insufficient. Annual main-tenance expenditures in 1973 amounted to only US$680 equivalent per mile forpaved roads, US$770/mi for gravel roads and US$300/mi for earth roads, whereasthe consultants SWKP/EIU have estimated that approximately US$1,400, US$1,770and US$400 per mile respectively are required annually to keep these roads ingood condition. During negotiations, these matters were discussed, and theGovernment agreed that sufficient funds will be allocated to assure propermaintanance of the road network aid so prevent unnecessarily early reconstruc-tion.

4. THE PROJECT

A. Description

4.01 The project consists of the following:

(a) improvement to two-lane bituminous paved standard of theLilongwe-Kasungu road (about 73 mi) including a bypassaround the Lilongwe industrial area and reconstruction ofthe Lingadzi bridge; and

(b) a pilot program to impro-ve the development and maintenanceof district roads.

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Road Improvement

4.02 The Lilongwe-Kasungu road (now 73.2 miles) is part of Ml, the maintrunk road of the country which runs south-north through most of the principalcenters -- from the Mozambique border through Blantyre, Zomba, Lilongwe,Mzimba and Rumphi to Chitipa on the Zambia border in the north. The adjacentsection south from Lilongwe to Zomba was recently improved under Credit 112-MAI.The Lilongwe-Kasungu section crosses flat to rolling terrain and the alignment

of the existing earth and gravel road is, for the most part, satisfactory.Drainage is poor, however, and the gravel road surface is rough underpresent traffic conditions. Under the project, the road will be reconstructedto two-lane bituminous paved standard. The few alignment corrections willshorten the road to 70.7 miles.

4.03 The proposed design standards for this improvement (Table 6) areconsistent with established standards in Malawi, and are appropriate forforecast traffic. They are based on a design speed of 60 mph and a maximumgradient of 5%. The pavement structure will be composed of natural gravelsubbase and cement stabilized base course with a double bituminous surfacetreatment on a 22-foot width and with a five foot shoulder on each side. Ifthe quality of the base gravel when placed on the road proves to be adequate,cement-stabilization will be omitted. During negotiations assurances wereobtained from the Government that thie Associa.-ion will be consulted beforea decision is made on the treatment to be given to the base course.

4.04 In order to alleviate traffic congestion and facilitate the orderlydevelopment of the industrial complex, a bypass of about 2 miles is includedin the project near the intersection of Ml and the trunk road running eastto Salima (M5). It will be built to the same standards as the main projectroad.

4.05 Another minor improvement included in the project is the recon-struction of the Lingadzi bridge, a small bridge on the Ml in the northernoutskirts of Lilongwe. The existing 150 foot, single-lane structure repre-sents a serious bottleneck for traffic, which is in excess of 1,000 vpd. Thebridge will be reconstructed to two-lane standards.

4.06 Supervision of construction will be carried out by the engineeringconsultants, SIWKP, who undertook the feasibility study and prepared thedetailed engineering. During negotiations, the Government confirmed thatthe consultants will be employed under terms and conditions satisfactory tothe Association.

District Roads Pilot Program

4.07 As mentioned previously, development and maintenance of districtroads generally has been neglected because the District Councils have neitherthe skills, organization nor the resources to do the job. As a result,agricultural development is impeded and output is sometimes left to rot

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because it cannot be transported to centers needing it. The Government wishesto undertake a pilot program in one of the country's 23 districts to determinethe proper manner of providing for these roads and has selected the KasunguDistrict, with its 250 miles of district roads, for this purpose as it is animportant agricultural area in which development has particularly been impededby the poor condition of its feeder road network.

4.08 The Kasungu District's road maintanance capacity will be strengthenedunder the project by the provision of essential basic road maintenance equip-ment (one towed grader, one tractor, two trailers, one 3-ton truck and handtools) and construction of a small workshop/office and several road camps formaintenance crews. The necessary road maintenance personnel such as equip-ment operators, mechanics and foremen will be recruited and trained underthe project, and a qualified engineer will be employed specifically to pro-gram and supervise operations. In connection with these efforts, the MWSwill carry out a study to deternine (i) the most suitable methods of roadmaintenance in terms of combinations of labor and equipment, (ii) the neces-sary operational and training flinds, and (iii) the feasibility of extendingthis program to other districts.

B. Execution

4.09 The Roads Department Ln the MWS will be responsible for the execu-tion of the project and will be assisted by consultants for constructionsupervision. Construction of the Lilongwe-Kasungu road, including the bypassand bridge, will be executed under one, unit-price contract awarded afterinternational competitive bidding in accordance with Bank/IDA guidelines.Procurement arrangements were confirmed during negotiations. Because ofuncertainties in estimating bid prices due to the lack of contractural roadconstruction experience in Malawi in recent years, and the difficulty theGovernment would have in financing cost overruns, tenders were sought beforeBoard presentation. The Government received bids in October of this yearfrom six prequalified contractors. The final award is expected to be madein December 1974. Construction will begin in March 1975 and is expected tobe completed by the end of 1976.

4.10 The pilot program for the development and maintenance of districtroads will be controlled by the MWS, working in close cooperation with theDistrict Council of Kasungu. The equipment, which is estimated to cost onlyabout US$36,000 equivalent and consists of single, separate items, will beprocured throughi local suppliers in accordance with normal Government pro-cedures which are satisfactory; the few buildings estimated at US$50,000equivalent will be constructed by local contractors after competitive bidding.Preliminary results of the program, which will start in mid-1975 with pro-curement of equipment and selection of candidates for training, etc., shouldbe available late in 1976; the NWS will then make recommendations on thepossibility of extending it to other districts. Financing for implementing

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these recommendations could be included in a future project. During negoti-ations, the Government agreed that it will discuss its proposals for extendingthe district roads maintenance program throughout the country with theAssociation prior to implementing them.

C. Cost Estimates

4.11 Total project costs are estimated at US$12.50 million with a

foreign exchange component of US$7.50 million or 60%. Detailed costs are asfollows:

-- MK million ------ ------US$ million--Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total IDA

A. Construction 3.14 4.52 7.66 3.77 5.42 9.19 7,41(80%)

B. Supervision ofconstruction 0.04 0.23 0.27 0.05 0.28 0.33 0.28(85%)

C. District RoadsPilot Program 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.08 0.16 0.24 0.20(83%)

Subtotal 3.25 4.88 8.13 3.90 5.86 9.76

D. Contingencies

1. Physical: 10% onitems A, B & C 0.33 0.48 0.81 0.39 0.58 0.97

2. Price: 16.5% onitems A-D1 0.59 0.88 1.47 0.71 1.06 1.77

Subtotal 0.92 1.36 2.28 1.10 1.64 2.74 2.11

Total Project Costs 4.17 6.24 10.41 5.00 7.50 12.50/1O.00(80%)

/1 Taxes and duties represent 5.6% of total project costs.

4.12 The cost of construction has been estimated by the consultants onthe basis of final design quantities and a detailed survey of unit pricesfor construction in Malawi. Estimated costs average US$130,000 per mile.Bids received in October 1974 (para. 4.09) suggest that the contract pricewill be well within the cost estimate. The estimates for supervision costsare based on the consultants' proposal which is reasonable. For the DistrictRoads Pilot Program, the cost estimates are based on a comprehensive evalu-ation by the MWS of the requirements for the program in terms of equipment,buildings and personnel, and prices from local suppliers.

- 12 -

4.13 A 10% physical contingency has been provided for construction, con-struction supervision and the pilot program to allow for possible quantityvariations and extensions. A price contingency of 16.5% has been provided tocover possible price increases during the project period; taking into consi-deration price trends both in the international market and within Malawi,price escalation rates have been estimated at 18%, 15% and 12% for the years1974, 1975 and 1976 respectively.

4.14 In a det4iled analysis, the consultants estimate the foreignexchange component on construction at 59%. This component includes deprecia-tion of equipment, imported materials, fuel and spare parts, the foreignexpense of expatriate personnel, overhead costs and profits. The localcomponent comprises mainly labor, housing, taxes and duties. The foreignexchange elements of other project items have been estimated by the Associ-ation at about 85% for consultant's services and 67% for the pilot program.

D. Financing and Disbursements

4.15 The IDA credit of US$10.)0 million will cover 80% of total projectcosts; that is, all of the foreign costs (US$7.50 million) and about 50% oflocal costs (US$2.50 million). The Government will finance all remainingcosts (US$2.50 million) including about US$700,000 in taxes and duties.

4.16 Disbursement from the Credit will finance 80% of expenditures forcivil works, 100% of foreign expendlitures for consultant's services and 100%of foreign and 50% of local expendLtures for the district roads pilot program.All disbursements will be fully documented. A schedule of estimated dis-bursements is given in Table 7. Ally funds remaining in the Credit accountupon completion of the project wil:L be cancelled.

5. ECONOMIC EVALUATION

5.01 As part of the important Ml running the length of the country, theLilongwe-Kasungu road is a vital link in the national transport system.Lilongwe is not only the new natioral capital but, served by paved roads fromthe south and east and soon, when the Mchinji road is built, from Lusaka inZambia, it is also the main transshipment point for goods to and from thenorthern half of the country. By the late 1970's Lilongwe will also have adirect rail connection to the sea. The project road connects the new capitalwith Kasungu, the administrative headquarters and marketing center for theKasungu District, and is also part of the main link to Mzuzu, the administra-tive center of the Northern Region.

5.02 The area served by the road (covering approximately 3,000 sq mi)has a population of about one-half million, most of whom are small farmers.Maize, groundnuts and tobacco are the most important crops. Two important

- 13 -

schemes to increase agricultural production in the area are underway: theLilongwe Agricultural Development Project wlhich has been supported by theAssociation since 1968 (Credits 113 and 244-MAI), and a program for flue-curingtobacco which has become an important processing industry near Kasungu. Also,the Kasungu Game Reserve, west of the city, is an important touristattraction.

5.03 The Government plans further large-scale agricultural productionand assistance to smallholders in the area which should result in sizeableincrease in both output and marketable surplus. Such surplus is shipped toLilongwe which has a rapidly growing population; according to Governmentestimates, the city's population will increase from its 1973 level of about75,000 to some 175,000 by 1980, and so is a growing major center of consump-tion as well as transshipment onwards.

5.04 In 1972, traffic on the project road ranged from about 250 vpd nearLilongwe to about 150 vpd on its central and northern sections. On the basisof past traffic growth, averaging 9% annually in recent years, and ongoingand planned development schemes in the region, the consultants SWKP/EIU haveestimated that traffic will continue to grow by at least 9% per annum until1986, leveling off thereafter to about 8% annually (Table 8).

5.05 The basis for the economic analysis is an assessment of the benefitsfor expected traffic and costs with and without the proposed improvementover a 20-year period, the estimated economic life of the project. For thepurpose of the analysis, the investment cost has been taken as the cost, netof taxes, of improving the main road, the bypass in Lilongwe and theLingadzi bridge, including the cost of supervision and taking into accountthe possible provision of a stabilized base and quantity contingencies. Theprincipal quantifiable benefits will be savings in vehicle operating costs(Table 9) and savings in road maintenance costs. While improvement of roadmaintenance in the Kasungu District will undoubtedly aid agricultural develop-ment in the region and thereby indirectly affect traffic on the project road,neither the costs nor the benefits of the District Roads Pilot Program havebeen taken into account in the analysis. There will of course be otherbenefits which cannot be quantified such as improved access to social andadministrative facilities in Lilongwe.

5.06 The streams of costs and benefits, summarized in Table 10, indicatethat the proposed investment for the construction of the Lilongwe-Kasungu roadis economically sound, yielding an overall economic return of 14%, a firstyear return of 13% and a benefit-cost ratio, at a discount rate of 10%, of1.50:1. Economic returns on the three individual sections of the road in-dicated in Table 8 are as follows: Lilongwe to Intersection S-32, 21%; eachof the other two sections, 10%.

5.07 If traffic is assumed to grow at only 7% throughout the economiclife of the project, the economic return on the proposed investment (witha stabilized base) would remain satisfactory at about 13%, while a 10%

- 14 -

decrease in savings in vehicle operating costs would reduce the return toabout 13%. Even in the unlikely event that both traffic growth and vehicleoperating cost savings were to fall to these levels, the economic returnremains satisfactory at 12%.

5.08 No data on benefits is available for the construction of the bypassof the industrial area in Lilongwe or the reconstruction of the Lingadzi bridge.Hlowever, the bypass is indispensable to allow planned development of the in-dustrial area to continue, and the new bridge will prevent accidents andconsiderable time delays which occur at present.

6. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION

t5.2I During credit negotiat:I.ons, agreemeuit was reachecl on the followingpo21i. t';;

(a) Vehicle weight and size regulations consistent with thestructural and geometric design of roads will beadequately enforced (para. 3.04).

(b) Data on traffic flows and vehicles will be collected asnecessary for sound transport planning (para. 3.07).

(c) Sufficient funds will be allocated annually forhighway maintenance to assure proper maintenanceof the classified highinay network (para. 3.14).

(d) The Association will be consulted prior to reaching a decisionon the provision of a stabilized base vs. natural gravel basefor the Lilongwe-Kasungu road (para. 4.03).

(e) Suitably qualified consultants will be engaged for supervisionof construction under terms and conditions satisfactory tothe Association (para. 4.06).

(f) Procurement under the project will be in accordance withBank/IDA guidelines (para. 4.09).

(g) Proposals for reorganizLng the development and maintenance ofroads designated as district roads will be discussed with theAssociation prior to implementation (para. 4.10).

(h) The Government will finance all project costs not covered bythe proposed IDA credit (para. 4.15).

6.02 The project is suitable for an IDA credit of US$10.00 millionequiva;lent to the Government of Malawi.

NJovember 15, 1974

TABLE 1

MALAWI

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Highwa Networktmiles J

A. By ;urface Type 1969 - 1973

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

Bitumen 370 438 553 607 774

Gravel 571 515 5,010 464 315

Earth 5,747 5,748 5,493 5,539 5 a

TOTAL 6,688 6,701 6,546 6,610 6,756

B. By Administrative Classifioation - 1973

Main Secondary District Other AllRoads Roads Roads Road1 / Roads

Bitumen 696 41 5 32 774

Gravel 134 148 1 32 315

Earth 1,089 1308 3,130 143 5,667

TOTAL 1,919 1,497 3,136 204 6,756

1/ Classified as oither branch, estate, tounship-0 prima isorundeoignated roads.

Source: Ministry of Works and Supplies, March 1974.

November 1974

MAIAWI

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Vehicle Fleetl/

Growth Rate1967 i968 1969 1970 1971 1972 19732/ 1967-1973

Passenger cars 8,4Ii 8,893 9,857 9,771 10,205 10,408 10,850

Goods Vehicles3/ 5,93Lt 6,240 6,696 7,747 7,635 8,121 8,650

B3uses 127 149 161 176 183 24~5 280 1 L.05

Motorcycles 1,34h 1,458 16507 1,658 2,73• I ,69 2,930 13.9je

Otherl'/ 1,864 1,731 220W 2,115 _2,769 2,560 2,730 6._%

T 'AL 17,687 1B,471 20,230 21,467 23,527 23,903 25,440 6.3%

l/Including both Government and privately-owned vehicles licensed annually.2/Estimated3/Inciuding trucks, landrovers and miniibuses.'/Including tractors, trailers, and road construction equipment.

Source: Malawi Statistical Yearbook 1973.

November 1 9714

r>)

TABLE 3

MA.IAWI

SECOND HIGiWAY PROJECT

Current and Planned Road Projects

Government'sDescription of Mode of Main Financial' Estimated

Road L Works or Studies Etecution Source Completion Date(miles)

Karonga-Chitipa 60 Preliminary MS-Design Local Budget December 1975investigations Department

Rumnhi-Chiweta 35 Feasibility study Consultants German June 1975and final design Assistance

Mzuzu-Ruohmi 40 Preliminary MWS-Design Local Budget December 1974investigations Deoartalent

Mzuzu-Nkhata Bay 2B Bituminization MYS-Direc'. UK Loan December 1974Labor

F12-Mazamba-Chinteche 32 Preliminary and Consultants IDA (Viphya June 1975final design Project)

W.hata Bay_ Dwangwa 60 Prelininary MWS-Design Local Budget Uncertaininvestigations Department

Yasungu-Dwangwa 65 Preliminary WdS-Design Local Budget June 1975investigations Department

Kasungu-Champira 44 Final design Consultants UNVP June 1974

Nkhotakota-Benga 33 Bituminization MWS-Direc+ UK Loan December 1974Labor

Sa'ima-Benga 31 Final desidg for MWS-Design Local Budget December 1974bituminization Department

Salima-Senga 13 Bituminization MWS-DirectLabor UK Loan December 1975

Malindi-Malkanjila 48 Bailey bridges and UK Royalimprovement from Engineers UK Assistance December 1975earth to gravelstandards

r,i longwe-Mchinji- 67 Bituminization Contractor USkM December 1976Zanbian Border

BRantyre-Chikwawa 25 Bituminization Uncertain Uncertain December 1975

Chikwawa-west to 50 Bituminization Uncertain Uncertain UncertainMozambique Border

Chikwawa-Bangula 51 Dituminisation Contractor US}D December 1976

'Bangula-NsanjAe 31 Drainage Contractor DA, (Lower June 1975improvemaents Shire Project)

Chb romo Railway Bridge - Adaptation to Contractor IDA (Lower June 1975road traffic Shire Project)

Source: Ministry of Works and Supplies, Marcb 1974

November 1974

TABLE 4

MALAWI

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Annual Highway Expenditures

(MK tOOO)

Fiscal US$ millionYear Administration Construction Maintenance Total Equivalent

1967 340 1.1,363 484 2,187 2.6

1968 410 3>431 510 4,351 5.2

1969/702/ 480 3,684 564 4,728 5.7

1970/71 560 7,537 587 8,684 10.4

1971/72 650 4,855 1,364 6,869 8.2

1972/73 715 5,249 1,287 7,251 8.7

1973/74 740 3,830 1,403 5,973 7.2

1974/75z/ 875 4,200 1,506 6,581 7.9

/ Estimated on the basis of total MWS administrative expenses.

J Covering 15 months; from FY1970 oanward, fiscal year changed fromJanuary-December to April-March.

3 Budgeted.

Source: Ministry of Works and Supplies, Roads Department, March 1974

November 1974

TABLE 5

MALAWI

SECOND HIGIPWAY PROJECT

Road Design Standards Adopted by the MWS

1, Speed (mph)

TerrainType o01 Road Normal _ Mountainous

Desirable Minimum Desirable Minimuw

Class I 60 50 50 40Class II 60 50 40 30Class III Each project treated individually

2 Sight Distance, Minimum Radius, Maximum GradientMinimuin Radlaal di,Sneed (moh)

30 40 50 60

Stopping visibility (ft) 200 275 350 475Passing visibility (ft) 800 1,300 1,700 2,000Minimum radius (ft) 239 477 716 1,146Maximum gradient normal 6% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%Maximum gradient mountainous 9% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0%

3. Cross Section

Type of Road Roadway Width (ft)ariageway plus shoulders

Class I 22 + 2x5 = 32Class II 18 + 2x7 = 32Class III 16 + 2x4 = 24

4. Pavement Structure Design The structure of the roads is designed accordingto the CBR 9,000 lb wheel load curve.

5. Construction Materials

Layer Description Specifications

Subgrade Top 6 in deoth (cut) PE < 30, 95% mod.Top 12 in de?th (fil]) AASHO - Compaction

Subbase Natural gravel or 10 < PI 4 15crushed stone CBR 25% at 95%

mod. AASHO compactionafter 48 hrs. soaking

Natural gravel PIC-. 6 LL -z 30CBR 85% at 98% modAASHO compaction after48 hours soaking

Base Crushed stone Aggregate crushingvalue< 30

Stabilized gravel PI < 15 LL< C40Unconfined cormpressivestrength 250 lbs/sq in

Surfacing material depends on traffic volume and general conditions.

6. Bridges

Bridge width = Carriageway widthFootpath = 2 x 2 feetLoading: according to BS 153 with o.8 HA

Source: Ministry of Works and Supplies, Roads Department, March 1974

November 1974

TABLE 6

MAIAWI

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Design Standards for the Lilongwe-Kasungu Road

Width of right-of-way 200 ftDesign speed 60 mphStopping sight distance 475 ftPassing sight distance 2,000 ft

Minimum radius horizontal 1,150 ft

Maximum radius 5°

Maxiumum gradient 5%Bituminous surfaced width 22 ft

Roadway width 32 ft

Crossfall pavement 1:30

Crossfall shoulders 1:20

Cuttings 1:1; 2:1 if he. 41

Embankments 1:3; 1:15 if h >41

Pavement type Subbase: 4-6 in natural gravelBase: 6 in cement stabilized

gravel

Surface: Double bituminous surfacetreatment

Pavement design wheel load ! ,000 lbs equivalentRRL Report LR 279

Structures: Width Equal to roadway widthLoading BS153, 0.8 x H.A

15U x H.B

Source: Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick and Partners, Detailed Engineering Study, 1974

November 1974

TABLE 7

MALAWI

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Estimated Schedule of Di8burseints

IBRD/IDA Fiscal Year Cumulative Disbursement

and Quarter at Did of Quarter(US$ '000)

1974/75

June 30, 1975 1 ,500

1975/76

September 30, 1975 2,100

December 31, 1975 3,500

March 31, 1976 4 5ooJune 30, 1976 5,100

1976/77

September 30, 1976 6,300

December 31, 1976 7,800March 31, 1977 8,80oJune 30, 1977 9,600

1977/78

September 30, 1977 10,000

Closing Date: June 30, 1978

Source: Mission Estimates, October 1974

November 1974

TABLE 8

MALAWI

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Projected Average Daily Traffic on Project Road

Lilongwe 332 Intersection Mponela Averageto to to Annual

S32 Intersection Nponela Kasungu Rate ofQ13 nil) (17.1 mi) (43.1 ml) Growth

1972 252 154 150

1977 300 183 179

1986 843 514 505

1991 1 ,239 755 742

1996 1,821 1,108 1,090

1972-1 986 9%

1987-1996 8%

Source: Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick .nd Partners, Feasibility Study, April 1973Mission estimates, March l1974

November 197L

TABLE 9

MALAWI

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Vehicle Operating Costs yTTpe of Road

tmK/mi)ll

Road Condition

Vehicle Type Poor Gravel2/ IMproved Gravel Bitumen

Cars o.1254 0.1000 o.o949

Vans o.1597 0.1292 0.1193

Landrovers 0.1986 o.1654 o.1 5o4

Buses o.5611 o.4605 0.4157

Truck - 7-ton o.4529 o.3565 0.3112

Truck - 28-ton 1.0279 0.8112 o.6990

1/ Net of taxes

2/ Comparable to present condition of project road

Source: Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick and Partners, Feasibility Study, April 1973Mission Estimates, March 1974

November 1974

TABLE 10

MALAWI

SEOND HIGI{iAY PROJBCT

Lilongwe-Kasungu Road with Stabilized Base

Economic Costs and Benefits(MK 1000)

Capital Savings in Savings in TotalYear Costs Maintenance Costs Vehicle Operating Costs Net Benefits

1975 4,130 - 4,1301976 h,130 - 4,1301977 56 586 6421978 154 639 7931979 355 696 1,0511980 165 759 9241981 366 827 1,1931982 466 902 1,3681983 215 982 1,1971984 532 1,072 1,6041985 -195 1,167 9721986 705 1 ,272 1,9771987 124 1,373 1,4971988 723 1,482 2,2051989 755 1,600 2,3551990 744 1,728 2,4721991 787 1,866 2,6531992 798 2,015 2,8131993 809 2,176 2,9851994 792 2,350 3,1421995 836 2,538 3,3741996 750 2,741 3,491

Economic return: 14.1%

Source: Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick and Partners, Feasibility Study, April 1973Mission estimates, March 1974

November 1974

MALAWI SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECTORGANIZATION OF THE

MINISTRY OF WORKS AND SUPPLIES

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