Applying the Methodology:The Affected Population

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean

The key objectives of this session are to:

• Explore the concepts behind the affected population;

• Define the concepts of Affected population Gender differentials Social vulnerability

• Discuss the direct and indirect effects on people

• Discuss the enumeration process

Objectives … cont’d

• Discuss the data requirements

• Discuss the analysis of the data with particular reference to gender analysis

• Share lessons learnt from recent assessment of damages

Estimating the macro socio-economic effects of natural disasters

* A quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of the disaster (damage & losses) assessment of damages) on diverse indicators of the economic and social conditions in the country affected.

Secondary effects

Effects on people,& the flow of goods & services

Effects on people &stock of property

(Direct) damage

(Indirect) Losses

Impact on macro-socio economic variables*

Status of Vulnerability for selected Caribbean SIDS

Country Rank GEVI EVI Rank SVI/Rank

Barbados 6 4.17 5.670 38 …

Bahamas 192 2.38 10.433 4

Cayman Islands 13 3.95 4.858 83 …

Dominican Republic 101 3.08 … … …

Grenada 45 3.57 7.848 15 0.496/1

Guyana 227 1.86 7.953 13 …

Haiti 61 3.38 4.474 96 …

Jamaica 22 3.84 7.484 18 …

Source: Results for 235 countries of the Demonstration Environmental Vulnerability Index. SOPAC Technical Report 356 and ECLAC – WP/2005/3

Affected population - Primary

• The primary population suffers the direct effects of the disaster and can be found in the direct path of the natural disaster.

• The impact on this group includes death, homelessness, injury, and trauma.

Affected population - Secondary

• The secondary population suffers the indirect effects of the disaster and can be found in or near the path of the disaster.

• These persons may include, care givers who were not directly affected and family members who take in relatives as a result of the disaster.

Affected population - Tertiary

• The tertiary population can be found outside of the disaster zone but may be affected.

• These persons may suffer injury or other damages due to panic, loss of social services, or any other severe disruption or inconvenience due to the disaster.

Damage

• Damage refers to all damage sustained by assets and inventories (Stock).

• It essentially involves damage to property including total or partial destruction of:

• physical infrastructure• buildings• installations• machinery and

equipment.

Losses

• Losses refers to the value of costs incurred by goods that cease to be produced or the services that cease to be provided (flows).

• Losses include:

– the costs or increased costs of providing services as a result of the disaster

– loss of income as a result of the impossibility or difficulty of providing such services

– The estimated cost of demolishing, clearing structures or efforts at mitigation and the reduction of vulnerabilities.

The Enumeration Process

The task

• To enumerate or estimate the entire affected population

• Enumerate by age, sex, and ethnicity

• Locate baseline population data

Geographic location• Rural/Urban

• Coastal

• Hills

• Valleys

• Mountain sides

• Remoteness to centres of governance, healthcare, roads, food and shelter.

Data sources

• Ministry of Housing, Health, Education, Sports

• Ministry of Works

• Private Developers

• PAHO/WHO; UNICEF

• Local Emergency Offices

• Civil Society Organizations

• Furniture suppliers

• Town & Country Planning

• National Statistical Office

• Population Census Reports

• Survey of Living Conditions

• Situational Analysis of Women and Children

Analysis of the data:Direct & Indirect effects on people

Mortalityeffects

Direct effects

Deaths directly caused by natural

disasters

Indirect effects

Short term: Deaths resulting from increases in acute respiratory, infectious or parasitic diseases attributed to event, whether in shelters or population at large.

Medium term: Deaths resulting from the deterioration of living conditions and increasing vulnerability (poverty, malnutrition, deterioration of basic services, etc.) which affect health levels.

Analysis of the data: Gender differentials

Gender differences in response to natural disaster

Phases Female Male

Pre DisasterDiffering Vulnerabilities - biological - social - cultural - attitudinal (risk perception)

Reproductive health needsRestricted skill baseExclusion from home constructionLow level of risk tolerance

No special restrictionsMobile skillsExclusion from child care responsibilitiesHigh level of risk tolerance

EmergencyDiffering coping mechanisms

Suffer higher incidence of depression (crying and suicide ideation);Organizing community sing-a-longs and story telling;

Alcoholism, gambling and dysfunctional behaviour;Rescuing villagers and clearing roads;

Gender differences …cont’d

Phases Female Male

Transition (rehabilitation and Recovery)

Weak access to wage earning possibilities;Women prepared one-pot meals for the community;Devoted more time to community and reproductive work.

Easier access to wages/income;Men engaged in ‘marooning” teams for house rebuilding;Spend more time in productive work; abandonment of families and responsibilities.

ReconstructionDiffering priorities Differing access to resources;Differing access to power in the public sphere

Priorities for shelter, economic activity, food security, and health care;Women slower to return to Labour Market; Reconstruction programmes that embark on development without the inclusion of gender analysis tools;Women’s lack of involvement in governance mechanisms.

Priorities for, agriculture, Infrastructural development and economic activity;Men easy access to the Labour Market; Reconstruction programmes in construction and agricultural development that favour male participation;Gender neutral governance mechanisms that don’t recognize changing gender roles and relationships, and favour male participation.

Gender Analysis Framework

• The living conditions of female headed households

– Significantly larger proportions of FHHs in the Caribbean than other parts of the globe;

– Female headship is young with more children;– Over-represented among households reported to

be destroyed /damaged;– Female Labour comprises a large proportion of the

informal, low wage sector;– Higher rates of unemployment ; and lower rates of

Labour force participation;– More difficult to find employment after a disaster.

Vulnerability

“The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and

environmental factors or processes, which increases the

susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards” (UN ISDR,

Geneva 2004).

The notion of vulnerability

• Embraces a number of concepts:– Exposure to damage;

– Lack of protection and precariousness;

– The risk of being harmed or wounded by unforeseen events; and

– Two opposing concepts that of susceptibility and of resilience or sustainability

A conceptual framework for vulnerability analysis

Susceptibility or incapacity to withstand, adopt or adapt

Resilience or capacity to withstand, adopt or adapt

Vulnerability

Natural Event (could pose a risk or threat)

Natural Disasters & the Vulnerability of Caribbean SIDS:

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cayman Islands Grenada Jamaica Haiti

Deaths

aff ected pop

Deaths and affected population as a %of the totalsfor four Caribbean SIDS

Damages caused by natural disasters for four C’bean SIDS (US$ millions)

Cayman Islands61%

Grenada16%

Jamaica3%

Haiti20%

Impact of September 2004 events on living conditions of people in four selected SIDS

CountryTotal

PopulationAffected

population% of

population

Absolute Number

of Deaths

Number of dwelling places

damaged

% of Housing

Stock

Cayman Islands 42,397 35,189 83 2 13,535 83%

Grenada 102,632 81,553 0.79 28 28,000 89%

Jamaica 2,620,000 369,685 14% 17 102,000 14%

Haiti 7,929,048 297,926 4% 3,000 49,882 3.8%

Framework for the analysis of social dimension of vulnerability to a natural disaster

Exposure to natural disaster

Nation

(Individual,

Household or

Community)

Social Susceptibility Social Resilience

Measure of social vulnerability

Why and how were female heads of households found to be more susceptible

than male?

• Restricted skill base

• High burden of care

• Disintegrating social capital

• High rates of teenage fertility

• Precarious living conditions

• Weak mechanisms of community governance

How were women and men found to be resilient...

• Coping skills

• Bonding and sharing

• Extended family ( at home and abroad)

• Strong sense of community - instead of individualism

• Maroon within them

Lessons learned

• When criteria for distribution are clear and known, women and their children have a fairer chance of being equally treated;

• As part of development women and their dependents would benefit from more Social impact Assessments;

• Food security has to take a leading role in development planning, for SIDS ;

• Non traditional forms of insurance for low income home owners, particularly poor female heads of households, need to be devised as part of the social protection efforts in the region;

Lesson learned … cont’d

• Child care facilities are not a privilege but a necessity for poor female heads of households;

• Gender aware and active NGO’s, play a significant role in assisting women and their dependents in the aftermath of a natural disaster and their contribution to advancing a gender sensitive framework to the broad issues of reconstruction and development, is in need of support and recognition.

THANK YOU

THE END