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Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Hugh Possingham FAADirector of The Ecology CentreThe University of QueenslandAustralia
What is science-based conservation? Stories from down under
Director of AEDA – www.aeda.edu.au
the ecology centreuniversity of queensland
australiawww.uq.edu.au/spatialecology
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Spatial Ecology Lab at UQ: quantitative ecologists
Kerrie Wilson
Josie Carwardine
Liana Joseph
Michael Bode
+Marissa McBride+ many others
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Story 1 Leadbeater’s possumDear David and Hugh,
Please tell us how to save Leadbeater’s possum in Victoria’s mountain ash forest. It is our only endemic mammal.
Victorian government 1993
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
The problem: Save an endangered animal that likes old trees in Australia’s most valuable forests
Method: A huge messy Population Viability Analysis Lessons: What is viable? Science has no answer. All we
could do is deliver the best option within the context of the socio-economic constraints – it worked.
Several papers eg: Lindenmayer, D.W. and Possingham, H. P. 1996. Ranking conservation and timber management options for Leadbeater's Possum in southeastern Australia using Population Viability Analysis. Conservation Biology 10:235-251.
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Story 2 Australian biodiversity priorities
Dear Steve and Hugh,
given limited resources what should I do now to minimise Australia’s net loss of biodiversity over the next 100 years, yours faithfully,
John HowardPrime Minister of Australia, 2001
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
The approach: Species saved per $ spent
• List management options• Species saved– Convert birds or plants to all species – 1 bird = 20
plants, one plant = 20 other species
• Political feasibility• Collateral benefit (greenhouse gas)• See “Setting biodiversity priorities”
http://www.dest.gov.au/science/pmseic/meetings/8thmeeting.htm
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Factor Value
No. of species saved 5,280
Area 2,270,400 ha
Cost/ha $88
Total cost $200m
No. species saved/$1m 26
Collateral benefit $4,008m
Collateral benefit/total cost 20
Prevent broadscale clearing of high biodiversity areas in QLD
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Eradicate new outbreaks of naturalised plant
species with weedy potential Factor Value
No. of species saved 6,000
Area 670m ha
Cost/ha $0.11
Total cost $72m
No. species saved/$1m 83
Collateral benefit $100m
Collateral benefit/total cost 1.4
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Process• List the options– Stop land clearing in QLD– Salinity management in key catchments in WA– Biocontrol of major weeds– Early eradication, better quarantine
• Work out cost and species saved• Leave collateral benefits as a separate currency• Synthesise, rank and sell to PM and cabinet• Did it work?
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Lessons from PMSEIC:
The science was largely expert opinionSuccess was in the packaging in an economic and social frameworkConservation scientists are invariably unable to frame their work in a socio-political context
Uses a simple metric (which someone living here would have understood 3000+ years ago) vs a complex analysis
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Lessons from PMSEIC:
The science was largely expert opinionSuccess was in the packaging in an economic and social frameworkConservation scientists are invariably unable to frame their work in a socio-political context
Uses a simple metric (which someone living here would have understood 3000+ years ago) vs a complex analysis
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Story 3 GBR rezoning
Dear Bob and Hugh,
We have all this biological data, could you design us a new marine park
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (Jon Day) 1998
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Science: The problem is already well defined in the
terrestrial world – but marine world completely different?
Politics: GBRMPA already had authority over whole region, but fishing lobby powerful
Big unresolved question: how much is enough and the burden of proof
Technical solution: Enter Marxan – deliver a target 20% for minimum impact. Poorly used, but delivered an outcome. http://www.uq.edu.au/marxan/
Applied Environmental Decision Analysis
A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility
smart science for wise decisionswww.aeda.edu.au
Quick access to AEDA information
• Homepage: www.aeda.edu.au• Publications: www.aeda.edu.au/publications• Decision Point: www.aeda.edu.au/news• Search Decision Point for articles that affect you:
www.aeda.edu.au/dpoint-search• Search AEDA for projects that affect your area:
www.aeda.edu.au/aeda_projects