Applications of Models-3Applications of Models-3in Coastal Areas of in Coastal Areas of

CanadaCanada

M. Lepage, J.W. Boulton, X. Qiu and M. Gauthier

RWDI AIR Inc.

C. di CenzoEnvironment Canada, P&YR

3rd Annual CMAS Models-3 WorkshopOctober 18-20, 2004 Chapel Hill, NC

Eastern Domain(36-km)

Western Domain(12-km)

120°0'0"W130°0'0"W140°0'0"W150°0'0"W

110°0'0"W

110°0'0"W

100°0'0"W

100°0'0"W 90°0'0"W

90°0'0"W

80°0'0"W

80°0'0"W

70°0'0"W

70°0'0"W

60°0'0"W 50°0'0"W 40°0'0"W

30°0'0"N

40°0'0"N

40°0'0"N

50°0'0"N

50°0'0"N

60°0'0"N

30°0'0"N

120°0'0"W

130°0'0"W

140°0'0"W

60°0'0"W

50°0'0"W

40°0'0"W

60°0'0"N

Modelling DomainsModelling Domains

(4-km)(4-km)

Factors to be considered:Factors to be considered:

Meteorological fields (MM5, MC2…)Emission inventory and modelingCMAQ Chemical mechanism

(SAPRC-99, CB-IV & RADM2…)Grid resolution and domainsMonitoring data and evaluation

methods

Western Canada: Western Canada:

MC2, SMOKE, CMAQModeled events: Aug ’01, Dec ‘024 km grid in MC2 (from UBC)Emission Inventories: 2000 (GVRD),

1995 (BC), 1999 (US), BEIS312 km, 4 km grids in CMAQRADM2, SAPRC99

CMAQ Model ResultsCMAQ Model Results

Pitt Meadows

Modelled & Observed Time HistoriesModelled & Observed Time HistoriesOzone, Aug. 9 – 20, 2001Ozone, Aug. 9 – 20, 2001

ppb

Day

ModelledMeasured

Legend

ModelledMeasured

Legend Betternighttimeozone

ppb

Day

Nighttime ozone sensitiveto grid resolution… Day

ppb

Pitt Meadows

NO2

Day

Day

ModelledMeasured

Legend

ModelledMeasured

Legend

STATION PITTMEADO WS Concentrations in ppbv, except CO in ppm and PM2_5 in g/m 3

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

20

40

60

80

100

O3_ST N4

PDO3_ST N4

time0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NO2_STN4

PDNO2_STN4

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

20

40

60

80

100

120

NOx_STN4

PDNOx_STN4

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

10

20

30

40

50

60

PM25_ST N4

PDPM25_ST N4

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

2

4

6

8

10

SO2_STN4

PDSO2_STN4

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

CO_ST N4

PDCO_ST N4

time

Under-prediction

Ozone

Good NO2

Predictions

Recent tests suggest better results with SAPRC99…

ppb

ppb NO2

Modelled & Observed Time HistoriesModelled & Observed Time HistoriesOzone, Aug. 9 – 20, 2001 (cont’d)Ozone, Aug. 9 – 20, 2001 (cont’d)

CMAQ Model ResultsCMAQ Model Results

Modeled & Observed Time Histories:Modeled & Observed Time Histories:PM2.5, Aug. 9 – 20, 2001PM2.5, Aug. 9 – 20, 2001

ModelledMeasured

Legend

ModelledMeasured

Legend

STATION PITTMEADO WS Concentrations in ppbv, except CO in ppm and PM2_5 in g/m 3

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

20

40

60

80

100

O3_ST N4

PDO3_ST N4

time0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NO2_STN4

PDNO2_STN4

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

20

40

60

80

100

120

NOx_STN4

PDNOx_STN4

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

10

20

30

40

50

60

PM25_ST N4

PDPM25_ST N4

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

2

4

6

8

10

SO2_STN4

PDSO2_STN4

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

CO_ST N4

PDCO_ST N4

time

PM2.5 (µg/m3)

STATION ABBOTSFORD Concentrations in ppbv, except CO in ppm and PM2_5 in g/m 3

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

20

40

60

80

100

O3_ST N5

PDO3_ST N5

time0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NO2_STN5

PDNO2_STN5

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

20

40

60

80

100

120

NOx_STN5

PDNOx_STN5

time0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

PM25_ST N5

PDPM25_ST N5

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

2

4

6

8

10

SO2_STN5

PDSO2_STN5

time

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 2640

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

CO_ST N5

PDCO_ST N5

time

No2 (ppb)

Precursor diurnalPattern propagatedto secondary PM

p-nitrate (ug/m3)

Too strong diurnal circle

Eastern Canada: Eastern Canada:

MM5, SMOKE, CMAQModeled events: Jul ’99, Aug ‘01Emission Inventories: 1995 (EC),

1999 (US), BEIS336 km, 12 km, 4 km grids in CMAQCB4, SAPRC99

Model Performance: OzoneModel Performance: Ozone Time Histories for Nearby, 4-km Resolution Urban (Time Histories for Nearby, 4-km Resolution Urban (redred) )

and Suburban (and Suburban (greengreen) Monitoring Sites, Hamilton, Ontario) Monitoring Sites, Hamilton, Ontario

Ozone

Predicted (blue) nighttime ozone aligns better

with the suburban monitoring site

Daytime obs ozone the same at both sites

PM2.5

Sulfate dominated aerosol: precursor diurnal cycles not propagated.

Model Performance: PMModel Performance: PM2.52.5

Time Histories for Nearby, 4-km Resolution Urban (Time Histories for Nearby, 4-km Resolution Urban (redred) ) and Suburban (and Suburban (greengreen) Monitoring Sites, Hamilton, Ontario) Monitoring Sites, Hamilton, Ontario

CMAQ PerformanceCMAQ Performance

Hourly and daily Ozone predictions are overall reasonably good in western and eastern Canada, (sometimes poor at night)

Kz(min) could be a contributing factor? Grid resolution is important for ozone

predictions, especially at nighttime (NOx): higher resolution is better

Meteorological inputs can be a major factor Chemical mechanism also plays a role

CMAQ Performance (cont’d)CMAQ Performance (cont’d) Daily mean PM predictions are reasonably

good in western and eastern Canada Hourly values are generally poor, but

somewhat better for Eastern Canada SOA module could be a contributing factor? Better biogenic emissions and temporal factors

are needed, especially in western Canada due to biogenic SOA.

Meteorological inputs can be a major factor Chemical mechanism also plays a role

MM5 or MC2 can produce the necessary MM5 or MC2 can produce the necessary meteorological inputs. However, there is meteorological inputs. However, there is uncertainty in PBL predictions relating touncertainty in PBL predictions relating to::

Model grid resolution Geophysical fields Initial and boundary conditions Microphysics and convective

parameterization schemes PBL and surface schemes ???

MC2 Sensitivity StudyMC2 Sensitivity Study

Sensitivity tests on 4 km and 2 km grid resolutions (13 runs) combining:

24km GEM output as initial fields ISBA surface scheme Kain-Fristch deep convective scheme Kong-Yau microphysics scheme Improved geophysics resolution Increased vertical grid resolution

P. Temperature Profiles - MC2 Sensitivity Runs LGY, 2001081912

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

280 282 284 286 288 290 292

Theta (K)

z (m

-ag

l)

fcrest_4km_base

isba_2km_base

isba_2km_chgall

isba_2km_kfcky

isba_4km_base

isba_4km_chgall

isba_4km_chgmoist

isba_4km_chgtopo

isba_4km_chgvg

isba_4km_chgz0

isba_4km_kfcky45lyr

isba_4km_kfcky

OBS

OLD MC2

MC2 Sensitivity Study:MC2 Sensitivity Study:Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results

CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

Reasonably good performance for 1-hr and 24-hr ozone and 24-hour PM2.5

Better ozone diurnal pattern on 4 km grid than on 12 km grid

Working on improvements to meteorological fields

Problems with PM and SOA chemistry – now working with SAPRC99