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Appendix 5.1

Project Appraisal Report

Comhairle Contae Chiarraí

Kerry County Council

PROJECT (Economic) APPRAISAL REPORT

for the

SOUTH KERRY GREENWAY

July 2018.

Prepared by: Capital Infrastructure Unit, Princes Quay, Tralee.

South Kerry

1602.01.01 180717 Project Appraisal Report Page 3 (of 66)

Section 1. Contents

Section 1. Contents ................................................................................................................................................. 3

Section 2. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 5

2.1 Genesis of the South Kerry Greenway Project ........................................................................................................ 5

2.2 History of the Rail Line............................................................................................................................................. 5

2.3 Summary of the Proposed Project .......................................................................................................................... 5

2.4 Assessment of the Economic Appraisal in the Business Case for the South Kerry Greenway ................................ 7

Section 3. Policy Context ......................................................................................................................................... 8

3.1 National Planning Framework ................................................................................................................................. 8

3.2 South West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 ‐ 2022 ........................................................................................... 9

3.3 Kerry County Development Plan 2015‐2021 ........................................................................................................... 9

3.4 The Kerry Local Economic and Community Plan ..................................................................................................... 9

3.5 Caherciveen Functional Area Local Area Plan 2013‐2019 ..................................................................................... 10

3.6 Smarter Travel – A Sustainable Transport Future 2009‐2020 ............................................................................... 11

3.7 Fáilte Ireland South West Tourism Development Plan 2008‐2010 ....................................................................... 11

3.8 European Policy ..................................................................................................................................................... 11

3.9 South West Region ‐ Action Plan for Jobs 2015 to 2017 ....................................................................................... 12

3.10 Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas............................................................................... 12

Section 4. Cycling Tourism ..................................................................................................................................... 13

4.1 International .......................................................................................................................................................... 13

4.2 Domestic ................................................................................................................................................................ 14

Section 5. Project Objectives ................................................................................................................................. 15

5.1 The Need for the Scheme ...................................................................................................................................... 15

5.2 Scheme Objectives. ............................................................................................................................................... 23

5.3 Domestic Objectives .............................................................................................................................................. 26

5.4 Other Local Benefits .............................................................................................................................................. 27

5.5 Metrics of Project Performance and Outcomes. ................................................................................................... 29

Section 6. Economic Appraisal – Benefit‐Cost Ratio Analysis .................................................................................. 31

6.1 Summary and Methodology. ................................................................................................................................. 31

6.2 Demand ................................................................................................................................................................. 31

6.3 Project Costs .......................................................................................................................................................... 33

6.4 Project Benefits and Returns ................................................................................................................................. 35

6.5 Benefit‐Cost Ratio. ................................................................................................................................................. 39

6.6 Economic Appraisal Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 42

Section 7. Project Delivery .................................................................................................................................... 43

7.1 Land Ownership ..................................................................................................................................................... 43

7.2 Planning. ................................................................................................................................................................ 43


7.3 Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................................................... 43

7.4 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................ 44

Section 8. Appendices ........................................................................................................................................... 45

Appendix 8.1 Summary of Relevant Planning and Policy Context

Appendix 8.2 Route Map

Appendix 8.3 Financial Appraisal

Appendix 8.4 Cost Estimate

Appendix 8.5 Assessment of Economic Appraisal in the Business Case


Section 2. Introduction

2.1 Genesis of the South Kerry Greenway Project

Investment in the National Cycle Network (NCN) to date has delivered on a broad range of cycling infrastructure projects but indications are that the most successful projects are cycle greenways. In April 2013, Fáilte Ireland commissioned market research consultants, ‘Strategic Marketing’, to undertake a Target

Cycling Market Survey 1 in relation to what elements make up a good cycling destination. This was done with a view to informing future cycling tourism infrastructure developments about the needs and preference of the consumer. The results show that when ranking destination attributes, that scenery and routes through attractive towns were considered most important by respondents. When ranking route attributes, respondents again rated scenery as the most important with traffic free cycling and access to safe cycling routes considered important in the hierarchy of route attributes. These findings are reinforced by the fact that in recent years the volume of cycling tourists along the Ring has decreased predominantly due to increased traffic volumes, large volumes of tour buses and increased traffic speeds along the improved N70. The survey confirmed that cycle tourists are motivated by a number of factors especially the need to be close to nature and to relax in a safe environment. This is a primary objective of the development and design of the project. While attracting significant recreational and tourism demand, potential routes were required to provide infrastructure which would cater for local transport demand as well as generating significant benefits for the local economy. As such, large world class projects with linkages to visitor attractions were found to offer the best return on investment in terms of meeting demand and generating economic activity. For some time Kerry County Council had recognised that the abandoned rail line in South Kerry with outstanding views, rail structures and varying landscapes would provide an exceptional walking and cycling route delivering a wide range of environmental, social and economic benefits to the area. It had a vision to develop a safe and attractive surfaced way marked route along the majority of the old rail line for walkers and cyclists. In addition to its immediate amenity value it would serve to preserve and promote the significant cultural heritage associated with the old railway line. Ultimately it is envisaged that promotion of this heritage will form a major element in the promotion of the Greenway. In August 2013 the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport announced approximately €6.5 million in funding to local authorities to deliver cycle routes under the second tranche of the NCN Local Authority Funding Scheme 2014‐2016. The proposed routes were required to be predominately off–road which would appeal to a broader range of cyclist. It was decided that two or three high profile projects that have the potential to be ‘trip attracting in their own right’ would be selected. The highest standards of safety were required to be incorporated throughout the route design and construction. Kerry County Council made an application for funding under the scheme and in April 2014 funding of €3,458,281 was approved by the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport. Kerry County Council has pledged additional funding out of its own resources towards the development of the project. In addition, Kerry County council received Stimulus Funding of €450,000 in 2014 for the completion of the Greenway as far as Renard point, thereby connecting the route with the ferry crossing to Valentia Island. Kerry County Council has pledged additional funding out of its own resources to fund the Greenway scheme.

2.2 History of the Rail Line

The Great Southern and Western Rail Company’s West Kerry Branch operated Europe’s most westerly rail line to Valentia Harbour from 1853 up to 1960, when the old railway line ceased to operate. During its construction phase, Faulkners, the contractors, employed 273 skilled men and 1,149 unskilled men.

2.3 Summary of the Proposed Project

The proposed route will start in Reenard (west of Caherciveen) and end in the village of Glenbeigh to the North East. The footprint of the proposed Greenway (two‐way shared surface cycling and walking route) is approximately 32km

1 www.failteireland.ie/FailteIreland/media/WebsiteStructure/Documents/In%20Your%20Sector/Cycling‐Marklet‐Research‐2013.pdf


long and where possible is aligned with the route of the old railway line. The route incorporates the major engineering elements of the old line including the tunnels at Drung Hill, Gleensk Viaduct and the bridge into Caherciveen. Sections of the original railway line have previously been incorporated into the N70 National Secondary Road during previous improvement and realignment works. There are also a number of locations where due to more recent development it was not possible to follow the line of the old railway. In these locations a route option report was prepared to determine the optimum route option. See Route Map in Appendix 2.

Table 2.3: Classification description.

Classification Description

On Rai Alignment Where the proposed Greenway is on the alignment of the former railway line.

On Local Road

Where an obstruction exists and a suitable local road alternative exists in a convenient location adjacent to the Greenway.

Local Diversion

Where there is a local obstruction such as property built on the line a minor off road local diversion around the obstruction is proposed.

Existing Structures Drung Hill Tunnels, Glensk Viaduct, Valencia River Viaduct

New Construction

Where the former rail line has been removed and noconvenient alternative route exists the proposal is to reinstate the alignment close to or on the original alignment. This occurs primarily at Mountain Stage where some of the original rail route has been compromised by previous road widening.

In order to maximise usage and accessibility for all ages and abilities, the Greenway will be a 3m wide bound surface with gradients of more than 5% being avoided wherever possible. It is to be constructed in accordance with best practice using the current National Guidelines and Specifications. These guidelines will ensure that in designing, constructing and maintaining the trail, that it will be consistent throughout and meet the requirements and expectations of uses of all abilities.

Figure 2.3 Typical Cross section through the shared surface of the greenway

Where required by landowners, it is proposed that fencing will be provided along the route, with gates and sheep pens/cattle stops where necessary. The scheme is designed to protect the natural heritage of this region which includes Special Area of Conservation, Special Protection Areas and proposed Natural Heritage Areas.


All the phases of the Glenbeigh‐Cahersiveen Trail are trip attracting in their own right and consistent with the National Cycle Network Scoping Study that ‘the vast majority of users want to remain on routes that run through attractive landscapes and towns where they can avail of local services.’ 2 It is envisaged that this section of the Greenway will ultimately form part of a larger Greenway following the old Railway like through the town of Killorglin to Farranfore where it will link with existing air and rail links.

2.4 Assessment of the Economic Appraisal in the Business Case for the South Kerry Greenway

The Strategic Research and Analysis division of the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport undertook an assessment of this report. A copy of the reply dated April 20th is included in the appendices.

2 www.smartertravel.ie / National Cycle Network Scoping Study, pg 9

Section 3. Policy Context

3.1 National Planning Framework

One of the principal purposes of preparing the NPF is to allow shared national development goals, including improved living standards, quality of life, prosperity, competitiveness and environmental sustainability, to be more broadly considered. Ireland 2040 Plan is a high‐level document that will provide the framework for future development and investment in Ireland. It is the overall Plan from which other, more detailed plans will take their lead, hence the title, National Planning ‘Framework’, including city and county development plans and regional strategies. The National Planning Framework will have statutory backing. The National Planning Framework is the Government’s plan to cater for the extra one million people that will be living in Ireland, the additional two thirds of a million people working in Ireland and the half a million extra homes needed in Ireland by 2040. The Framework focuses on:

o Growing our regions, their cities, towns and villages and rural fabric. o Better outcomes for communities and the environment, through more effective and coordinated

planning, investment and delivery. As a strategic development framework, Ireland 2040 ‐ Our Plan sets the long‐term context for our country’s physical development and associated progress in economic, social and environmental terms and in an island, European and global context. The vision for Ireland in 2040 is:

o For the highest possible quality of life for people and communities, underpinned by high quality, well managed built and natural environments.

o Sustainable self‐reliance based on a strong circular economy and significant progress towards a low carbon, climate‐resilient society while remaining an open, competitive and trading economy.

The relevant National Policy Objectives in support of the proposed development are set out hereunder: National Policy Objective 16 ‐ Target the reversal of rural decline in the core of small towns and villages through sustainable targeted measures that address vacancy and deliver sustainable reuse and regeneration outcomes. National Policy Objective 17 ‐ Enhance, integrate and protect the special physical, social, economic and cultural value of built heritage assets through appropriate and sensitive use now and for future generations. National Policy Objective 18a ‐ Support the proportionate growth of and appropriately designed development in rural towns that will contribute to their regeneration and renewal, including interventions in the public realm, the provision of amenities, the acquisition of sites and the provision of services. National Policy Objective 21 ‐ Enhance the competitiveness of rural areas by supporting innovation in rural economic development and enterprise through the sustainable diversification of the rural economy into new sectors and in particular those with a low or zero carbon output. National Policy Objective 22 ‐ Facilitate the development of a National Greenways/Blueways and Peatways Strategy which prioritises projects on the basis of achieving maximum impact and connectivity at national and regional level.


National Policy Objective 27 ‐ Ensure the integration of safe and convenient alternatives to the car into the design of our communities, by prioritising walking and cycling accessibility to both existing and proposed developments, and integrating physical activity facilities for all ages. Empowered Rural Communities – Rural areas play a key role in defining our identity, in driving our economy and our high‐quality environment and must be a major part of our country’s strategic development to 2040. In addition to the natural resource and food sector potential as traditional pillars of the rural economy, improved connectivity, broadband and rural economic development opportunities are emerging which offer the potential to ensure our countryside remains a living and working community. Rural Development – Actions:

o Implementation of the actions outlined in the Action Plan for Rural Development. o Implementation of a targeted smart growth initiative to enable opportunities to secure the

regeneration and re‐purposing of rural towns and villages weakened by the structural changes in rural economies and settlement patterns

o Investment in greenways and blueways as part of a nationally coordinated strategy.

3.2 South West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 ‐ 2022

The Regional Planning guidelines were developed on the basis of guidance provided through the National Spatial Strategy and a wide range of plans that exist at individual agency level throughout the region. The task of the guidelines is to provide a broad canvas to steer the sustainable growth and prosperity of the region and its people up to 2020 consistent with the objectives and vision of the National Spatial Strategy. They provides the link from the implementation of spatial policy from national to regional and local level. The objectives of the County development plan must be consistent with the objectives of the Regional Planning Guidelines. The relevant policies and objectives in relation to the proposed development are contained in Appendix 1.2.

3.3 Kerry County Development Plan 2015‐2021

The Planning and Development (Amendment) Act 2010 amends section 10 of the Principal Act by introducing the requirement of a Core strategy that shall '' show that the development objectives in the Development Plan are consistent, as far as possible, with national and regional development objectives set out in the National Spatial Strategy and Regional Planning Guidelines''. Among the strategic aims of the core strategy are:

o Set out a vision and blueprint for the future sustainable development of the County and maximise its potential in the context of the South West region

o Support sustainable tourism development in Kerry and strengthen the contribution that tourism makes

to the local communities, culture and economy of the County

o Promote and support the integration of land use and transport and encourage modal shift to greater use of sustainable modes of transport, including public transport, walking and cycling.

Through the core strategy and the objectives outlined, the County Development Plan sets out a vision for the future development of the County. The relevant policies and objectives as they relate to the proposed development are outlined in Appendix 1.3.

3.4 The Kerry Local Economic and Community Plan

The Kerry Local Economic & Community Plan (LECP) is an integrated plan to guide the development of County Kerry from an Economic, Community, Cultural, Sporting and Recreation perspective from 2016 to 2021. This


plan is used to focus the role of Local Government, State Agencies, Community Sector, Local Development Groups and other bodies that are involved in the development of County Kerry. Putting People First: Action Programme for Effective Local Government, states that local government’s ‘role will be refocused, particularly towards economic, social and community development… and that local government will be the main vehicle of governance and public service at local level, leading economic, social and community development’. The Kerry LECP focuses on three aspects to tackling key economic and social concerns for the County: 1. Economic Development and Job Creation 2. Quality of Life 3. Community and Social Inclusion The proposed greenway, as catalyst for the economic regeneration and a contributor to health and wellbeing of the local community, is consistent with key objectives and actions of the Local Economic and Community Plan for the County, as set out below:‐ Economic Development and Job Creation. Objective 1.3.8: Actively promote the sustainable development of tourism in the county through the development and implementation of appropriate plans and strategies. Action 1.3.8.3: Undertake further work on route options and feasibility studies for potential development of Greenways in the county, in line with national Greenways guidelines. Action 1.3.8.4: Further to proper planning and sustainable development support completion of existing greenway development (South Kerry, North Kerry and Fenit Greenways) and investigate the feasibility of linking up the North and South Kerry Greenways. Quality of Life Objective. Objective 2.5.2: Promote an increase in physical activity levels across the county for all. Action 2.5.2.1: Promote and develop free recreation facilities as part of a drive to increase physical activity levels and opportunities in the county for all. This work programme to be carried out in cooperation with the Kerry County Tourism Strategy. Community and Social Inclusion objective. Objective 3.8.8: Improve the liveability of communities through improved local facilities. Action 3.8.8.1: Support the development of safe walking routes and other recreation opportunities in communities involving vulnerable road users in the design, included in which should be better signage and mapping facilities.

3.5 Caherciveen Functional Area Local Area Plan 2013‐2019

The Caherciveen Local Area Plan was prepared in accordance with Part II, Section 20 of the Planning & Development Acts 2000‐2014 and is required to be consistent with the objectives of the Kerry County Development Plan 2015‐2021. The LAP consists of a written statement and plans indicating detailed objectives, including community facilities, amenities and design standards. It sets out the objectives for the future development of the area at a more detailed level that is possible in the County Development Plan. The plan


covers both the rural areas and the urban settlements. The relevant policies and objectives as they relate to the proposed development are outlined in Appendix 1.4.

3.6 Smarter Travel – A Sustainable Transport Future 2009‐2020

Smarter Travel is the current national transport policy for Ireland. Through the policy, the Government reaffirms its vision for sustainability of transport in Ireland and sets out five key goals in this regard, namely:

o Reduce overall travel demand o Maximise the efficiency of the transport network o Reduce reliance on fossil fuels o Reduce transport emissions; and o Improve accessibility to transport.

To achieve these goals, the Government set the following key targets:

o Alternatives such as walking, cycling and public transport will be supported and provided to the extent that these will rise to 55% of total commuter journeys to work

o The total kilometres travelled by the car fleet in 2020 will not increase significantly from current levels.

3.7 Fáilte Ireland South West Tourism Development Plan 2008‐2010

In accordance with ‘Fáilte Ireland South West Tourism Development Plan 2008‐2010’, one of its strategic goal is to ‘build on the region’s position as Ireland’s leading tourism destination outside of Dublin, by focusing on innovative developments and marketing while delivering top quality experiences based on the region’s natural and cultural assets’ and will improve the visitor experience by developing a South West Coastal Walking Route and identify new walking routes in the region'. The proposed route links with Fáilte Ireland's Existing and Potential Cycling Hubs connecting regions and places of interest and will provide opportunities for visitors to cycle and promote regional development. The proposed ‘Greenway’ will link the local population centres of Cahersiveen and Valentia Island where a ferry link between the mainland at Reenard Point and Valentia Island (Knightstown) exists and has the potential to create a unique ‘Marine Greenway Loop’ .This innovative loop will allow walkers/cyclists the opportunity to travel the Greenway onto Valentia Island and return by boat between the two marinas. The proposed costal cycle route will take in stunning views of Dingle Bay, Valentia Observatory and Valentia Island which are awe‐inspiring and trip attracting in their own right. Considering the geology, paleontology and cultural heritage of the area including the transatlantic cable, the slate quarry and the Sceilig Islands this area has ‘strong merit for consideration as a World Heritage Site’ (Irish Examiner, 30th May 2013)

3.8 European Policy

In March 2006 the European Commission (EC) adopted a renewed Tourism Policy with the main objective to contribute to ‘improving the competitiveness of the European tourism industry and creating more and better

jobs through the sustainable growth of tourism in Europe and globally.’ 3 EuroVelo (Figure 2) is a network of 14 long distance cycle routes connecting and uniting the whole European continent. In 2009, the European Parliament adopted a resolution to include EuroVelo in the trans‐European transport network. Euro Velo 1 is in the Republic of Ireland, Atlantic Coast Route – where much of the route has yet to be developed with the exception of the Great Western and Great Southern trails respectively.

3 http://eur‐lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2007:0621:FIN:EN:PDF


3.9 South West Region ‐ Action Plan for Jobs 2015 to 2017

In July 2015 the government launched the South West Region ‐ Action Plan for Jobs 2015 to 2017. This document examines the areas of potential for job creation throughout the South West region and identifies the development of a network of integrated greenways as an objective of the strategy.

3.10 Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas.

In July 2012 the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government established the Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas. The 2014 final report ‘Energising Ireland’s Rural Economy’ focused on a range of measures which are intended to support the economic regeneration of rural communities. The report outlines the challenges facing rural communities throughout the Country and identifies the needs, potential and objectives for rural economic development. The report included a number of recommendations in the tourism sphere. The report cites the development of the Mayo Greenway as an example of how rural areas can be developed through investment in local projects. Figure 3.10 EuroVelo Route 1.

Section 4. Cycling Tourism

4.1 International

In an effort to measure the value of cycle tourism in the EU a study commissioned by the European Parliament in 2012 (EP2012) estimated that there are 2.295 billion cycle tourism trips (2.274 billion day trips and 20.36 million overnight trips) made annually in Europe, with a value in excess of €44 billion. This is the estimated sum total of domestic and international cycle tourism trips. The expenditure associated with overnight cycle tourists (20.4 million) is estimated to total circa €9 billion annually. 4 The growth experienced in cycle tourism has differed across Europe’s member states. In countries such as Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands for example, cycle tourism represents an important component of the overall national tourism market. The main outbound cycle tourism markets in Europe according to the EP2012 Study are Germany and the UK while Austria, Denmark, Switzerland and France have been identified as the main receiving countries. The economic impact of German cycle tourism is estimated to total a net value‐added of €5.55 billion per annum. One‐fifth of the German population above the age of 14 undertook a bicycle vacation with at least one night in accommodation. It has been estimated that 24% of turnover generated by bicycle tourism in Germany is attributable to international bicycle tourists. (Trendscope 2010, in Market Analysis Report on the Rhine Cycle Route). In France the total turnover of different industries (bicycle producers, retail, building industry, tourism industry and others) related to cycling is estimated to total €4.5 billion per annum, of which 44% is attributed to the tourism industry (i.e. €1.9 billion excluding day trips). The total spending of cycle tourists, including daytrips, amounts to €5.6 billion per annum. The French hotel and restaurant industry is estimated to generate approximately half of their income from cycle tourists (Source: Atout France 2009, in Market Analysis Report on the Rhine Cycle Route). Research in the Netherlands has shown that cycle tourism by the Dutch population in their own country is very popular. In total, 8.5 million of the (16 million) Dutch population make about 200 million recreational cycle tours and about 1 million cycle holidays (holidays with cycling on more than half of the days). This leads to an annual turnover of €750 million, of which €400 million are attributable to day trip cyclists and €350 million is attributable to holiday cyclists. From 2002 to 2007 the spending related to cycle tourism increased by 34% in the Netherlands.5 Increasing number of European countries such as Britain, the Netherlands, France, Germany, and Switzerland are substantially investing in cycling as a tourism activity. Networks such as La Velodyssey (1,400km) France6 , ‘the Veloland Schweiz (Switzerland) and the C2C Cycle Route (England) have been developed. Cycle shops and B&B’s show visitor numbers increased by 20% with some putting the rise in business closer to 100%.’7 In this context it can be seen that the establishment of Ireland as a premier destination for cycling tourism has significant economic benefits in addition to the recreational, health and environmental returns, while contributing towards the European Commissions Tourism Policy (EuroVelo Network) of long distance trans‐national cycling routes.

4 The European Cycle Route Network Eurovelo Study,( 2012 p13) Directorate General for Internal Policies, Policy Department, Structural and

Cohesion Policies.

5 Rhine Cycle Route: Market Analysis Report on the Rhine Cycle Route, 2011, Stichting Landelijk Fietsplatform Eric Nijland

6 http://www.velodyssey.com/rech_etapes_resultats 7 http://www.failteireland.ie /A Strategy for the development of Irish Cycle Tourism, 2007 ,p11


Figure 4.1 Map of EuroVelo Routes in Europe8

4.2 Domestic

While a National Cycle Network Scoping Study (Figure 1) was completed in 2010 identifying some 2,000km of corridors along which high quality cycle facilities are to be constructed in Ireland, to‐date the experience of Greenway development in Ireland has been relatively limited. It has been piecemeal in nature with various authorities and agencies pursuing the development of facilities at a local level which are not necessarily connected to a national objective. The National Trails Office9 has an inventory of existing cycling recreational trails, which includes over 350km of off‐road cycle trails – however, they are not linked together into a coherent network. At present therefore, there is no long distance trail available in Ireland of the scale and quality offered in other parts of Europe. One of the most successful greenway facilities in Ireland to‐date has been the Great Western Greenway in County Mayo. The Greenway is 42km (mostly off‐road) traffic free, cycling and walking facility that primarily follows the line of the old Great Western Railway, which closed in 1937. Development of the Greenway involved a partnership between Fáilte Ireland, the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport and Mayo Co. Council, as the major funding sources of the project, with substantial support also provided by the local community and local landowners. While planning and designing the scheme, Mayo County Council envisaged a leisure demand of approximately 50,000 trips per year. However, in 2011, the first year after the project was completed, 146,000 trips were recorded on the route. During 2012, 177,000 visitors used the greenway and since the route has been expanded to Achill Island (in 2013) the visitor numbers have reached 260,000 in 2016.

8 www.eurovelo.org/routes/ 9 www.nationaltrails.ie


Section 5. Project Objectives

5.1 The Need for the Scheme

5.1.1 Background

The Need for the Scheme is demonstrated when consideration is given to the existing conditions within the area. These include:

o the level and nature of economic activity in the area o the trends in demographic profile and population o the available labour force and activation levels, and o the school going population as an indication of future trends.

a) Level and Nature of Economic Activity. The 2016 Pobal HP Deprivation Index is the latest in a serious of deprivation indices developed by Trutz Haase and Jonathan Pratschke and funded by Pobal. Based on the released data from the 2016 Census of Population, the 2016 Pobal HP Deprivation Index shows the level of overall affluence and deprivation at the level of 18,488 Small Areas. The indices for 2006, 2011 and 2016 using identical measurement scales as set out below. The following graph illustrates that the Deprivation Index for the State and County is rising between each intercensal period while the averaged* index for the study area has fallen and remains broadly static. This indicates an increase in the differential between the county and state affluence to that of the study area and underlines the relative decrease in the study area. *Table 5.1.1(b) sets out the specific indices for each electoral division – they have been averaged for presentation purposes.

Graph 5.1.1 (a): Deprivation Index for Study Area, County and State

Table 5.1.1 (b): Deprivation Indices for Electoral Divisions, County and State

ED/Area 2006 2011 2016

Caher ‐3.61 ‐2.39 ‐5.08

Castlequin 0.23 ‐2.27 0.71

Killinane ‐4.17 ‐2.06 ‐2.4

Glanbehy ‐4.57 ‐5.14 ‐5.52

Average for Study Area ‐3.03 ‐2.97 ‐3.07

Kerry ‐2.14 ‐1.78 ‐1.31

Ireland ‐0.4 0.2 0.6

‐3.50

‐3.00

‐2.50

‐2.00

‐1.50

‐1.00

‐0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

Deprivation In

dex

Years, 2006, 2011, 2016

Kerry

Average Study Area

Ireland


There are 164 Electoral Divisions in the county for statistical purposes. Three of the four EDs are in the bottom half of the total when compared to each other.

o 56th ‐ Castlequin o 94th ‐ Killinane o 129th ‐ Caher o 131st ‐ Glanbehy

Figure 5.1.1 (b): County ED Deprivation Indices

A more detailed analysis of the ED at Small Area level shows the Deprivation Indices are positive for only 5 areas with 17 being negative with a aprticulr concentration of disadvantaged areas in Cahirciveen and Glenbeigh.

Figure 5.1.1 (c): Study Area (Small Area Deprivation Indices)


b) Economic Status, Occupation and Industry of the Study Area

Table 5.1.1 (c): Economic Status, Occupation and Industry of the study area (2016).

Caher Castlequin Killinane Glenbehy Total %

Principal Economic Status At work 734 263 119 413 1,529 49%

Looking for first regular job 10 1 3 4 18 1%

Unemployed having lost or given up previous job 81 21 12 76 190 6%

Student 135 58 10 75 278 9%

Looking after home/family 127 29 17 81 254 8%

Retired 361 107 51 200 719 23%

Unable to work due to permanent sickness or disability 50 16 11 32 109 4%

Other 3 3 2 1 9 0%

Total 1,501 498 225 882 3,106 100%

Industry Agriculture, forestry and fishing 49 47 27 58 181 12%

Building and construction 40 17 11 32 100 7%

Manufacturing industries 78 28 8 30 144 9%

Commerce and trade 168 58 18 78 322 21%

Transport and communications 31 12 4 23 70 5%

Public administration 53 17 14 18 102 7%

Professional services 168 58 17 94 337 22%

Other 147 26 20 80 273 18%

Total 734 263 119 413 1,529 100%

Occupation Managers, Directors and Senior Officials 72 13 8 37 130 8%

Professional Occupations 97 37 12 67 213 12%

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 60 20 7 32 119 7%

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 79 30 11 40 160 9%

Skilled Trades Occupations 162 79 48 115 404 24%

Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations 76 20 12 34 142 8%

Sales and Customer Service Occupations 88 29 5 38 160 9%

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 57 20 12 31 120 7%

Elementary Occupations 71 25 10 45 151 9%

Not stated 53 11 6 50 120 7%

Total 815 284 131 489 1,719 100%

The following table sets out the trend between 2006, 2011 and 2016 in the Principal Economic Status and Industry in the Study Area. The trend shows:

o a decrease in the number at work o an increase in the number of unemployed o a decrease in looking after family/home, and o an increase in retired

The second table shows the change in the employment centres in the study area over the period.


Table 5.1.1 (d): Economic Status and Industry of the study area (2006, 2011 and 2016).

Principal Economic Status 2006 2011 2016

At work 1,727 1,539 1,529

Looking for first regular job 17 24 18

Unemployed having lost or given up previous job 140 315 190

Student 279 281 278

Looking after home/family 463 328 254

Retired 503 536 719

Unable to work due to permanent sickness or disability 126 132 109

Other 12 11 9

Total 3,267 3,166 3,106

Industry 2011 2016

Agriculture forestry and fishing 191 181

Building and construction 107 100

Manufacturing industries 111 144

Commerce and trade 396 322

Transport and communications 70 70

Public administration 97 102

Professional services 312 337

Other 255 273

Total 1,539 1,529

c) Demographic Profile and Population.

The decline in population of the area in which the scheme is located is in marked contrast to state and countywide trends, which experienced increases in population during the same period. In the inter‐censal period 2006‐2011 the population of the County increased by 5,667 (4.1%) from 139,835 to 145,502. Notably the population growth rate in Kerry is half that of the State and 2.9% lower than that of the South‐West region. The large population losses in South Kerry are a significant contributory factory.


Table 5.1.1 (d): Population Statistics

2011 to 2016 RURAL AREAS AND ED'S

Population 2011 (no)


Males 2016 (no)

Females 2016 (no)

Actual change 2011‐2016 (no)

Percentage change 2011‐2016 (%)

Rural Areas

Caherciveen Rural area 8,802 8,653 4,369 4,284 ‐149 ‐1.7%

Kenmare rural area 7,449 7,839 3,913 3,926 390 5.2%

ED's

Killorglin 4,185 4,373 2,131 2,242 188 4.5%

Caher 2,012 1,824 901 923 ‐188 ‐9.3%

Kenmare 2,912 3,161 1,520 1,641 249 8.6%

2006 to 2011 RURAL AREAS AND ED'S

Population ‐ 2006 (no)


Males 2011 (no)

Females 2011 (no)

Actual change 2006 ‐2011 (no)

Percentage change 2006 ‐2011 (%)

Rural Areas

Caherciveen Rural area

9152 8802 4466 4336 ‐350 ‐3.8

Kenmare rural area 6987 7449 3777 3672 462 6.6

ED's

084 Killorglin 3868 4185 2010 2175 317 8.2

007 Caher 2127 2012 1006 1006 ‐115 ‐5.4

056 Kenmare 2462 2912 1439 1473 450 18.3

According to the 2011 Census of Population only 25% of the population of Caherciveen fell into the under 25 age range, this low percentage of younger population is true of all areas across the Iveragh Peninsula. However, the proportion of under 25s in Caherciveen represents one of the lowest proportions in Kerry and is 6.4% below the County average and 9.1% below the State average. Of the towns in Kerry, Caherciveen has the second highest portion of over 65’s with 20.5% of the population over 65, this is 6% above the County average and 9% above the State average. The trend towards an aging population is evident across Kerry, with 47.2% of Kerry’s population in the 40 to 99 years age range compared to 41.6% of the State in the same age range. d) Labour Force and Activation Levels The male labour force participation rate in the Caherciveen area has fallen by 2% in the twenty years from 1991 to 2011. At 65.7% it is lower than the Kerry and State levels which are 67.5% and 69.4% respectively. By comparison the labour force participation rate for women has seen a large increase during the same period. It was only 24.6% in 1991 but rose to 51.4% in 2011. This is still below levels in Kerry and the State (which are 51.8% and 54.6% respectively). These figures indicate that less people are actively engaged in the labour market in Caherciveen compared with other areas in the country.


e) School Going Population The school going population for Colasite na Sceilge which is the second level school serving the area is set out below.

Table 5.1.1(e): Colaiste na Sceilge

Year Total First years Foreign students included Local students

1999 780

2015/16 517 88 40 477

2016/17 465 80 7 458

458 represents a drop of 322 students from the 780 enrolled in 1999 477 represents a drop of 303 students from the 780 enrolled in 1999 There is a drop of 40% since 1999 in 18 years.

Table 5.1.1(f): Caherciveen area primary school numbers 2010 ‐2016

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Coars 27 26 27 25 23 23 20

Foilmore 50 48 51 52 57 55 50

Ahatubrid 88 88 88 92 101 90 90

Sc Mhuire Boys 93 86 85 76 74

St. Joseph’s Girls 76 70 72 71 63

Scoil Saidhbhin (amalgamated)

169 156 157 147 137 128 126

The total drop in primary school population from 2010 to 2016 is 48 going from 334 to 286 students. This is a 14% fall.

Figure 5.1.1 (c): School going population at Colaiste na Sceilge

Figure 5.1.1 (d): School going population at local primary schools

The Need for the Project is demonstrated by the above factors ‐ the project is focussed on an area that is experiencing of severe economic decline and an ongoing loss of population.

400

500

600

700

800

1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Colaiste na Sceilge

260

280

300

320

340

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Totals in Local Primary Schools


5.1.2 Potential of the Area

a) Scenery The following text is the introduction to Chapter 12 of the County Development Plan 2015‐2021 ‘The outstanding landscapes of County Kerry are one of the County’s defining features and one of its most important economic assets. Few counties possess the variety of different landscapes that are found here ‐ from the beautiful unspoilt beaches and rolling hills and pastureland of North Kerry to the rugged coastline and elevated mountainous wilderness of South and West Kerry. Fáilte Ireland conducted a Holiday Maker Survey of visitors to the Ring of Kerry and the Dingle Peninsula. Of those surveyed, over 80% cited the quality and beauty of the countryside as the main reason for their visit. Tourism is the industry most likely to deliver jobs to rural areas in the short to medium term. In addition, the landscape is also an important contributor to the quality of life that underpins the attractiveness of County Kerry as a location for inward investment. It is critical, therefore, that County Kerry’s landscapes are protected and this is a key objective of this Development Plan’.

The proposed route of the greenway is in an area of exceptional scenery and visual amenity. It is this unique asset to the area which when accessible to tourists will be self‐attracting in its own right that lends itself to the sustainable development and success of this scheme. b) Tourism Tourism is a major industry in the county and it offers the greatest potential for growth throughout the county. County Kerry has a significant dependency on tourism, with over 20% of the workforce dependent, in some form, on tourism. In 2015, Kerry had more than 1 million overseas visitors bringing an estimated €260 million to Kerry. Visitors from North America constituted 40% of the total with 33% from mainland Europe and almost 20% from Great Britain. In 2015, Kerry also attracted an estimated 700,000 visits from Irish residents, spending €157 million. Kerry currently attracts 13% of all overseas visitors and just over 9% of total domestic trips. A Tourism Strategy for County Kerry has been published as part of the Local Economic and Development Plan for the County. The vision of the strategy is to maximise, in a sustainable manner, tourism’s contribution to the quality of life, economy, employment and local community development of County Kerry, paying particular attention to nurturing the natural, built and cultural heritage of the county. The overall objectives are to increase the number of visitors and their time spent in the county, but to do so in a manner that is sustainable; to increase the tourism season across the county but, in particular, in areas where the tourism season is short; to increase the number, breadth, depth and quality of the tourism experiences across the county; and to encourage tourists to return to Kerry in the future, based on their previous positive experience. The proposed project and its location are fully consistent with the vision of the strategy. The scheme is sustainable, builds upon existing local assets, facilitates linkages with other attractions and encourages an increase in length of stay and elongation into the shoulder season. c) Cycling Needs Survey In April 2013, Fáilte Ireland commissioned market research consultants, ‘Strategic Marketing’, to undertake a Target Cycling Market Survey in relation to what elements make up a good cycling destination. The following is a summary of the research findings.


Source: (www.failteireland.ie/FailteIreland/media/WebsiteStructure/Documents/In%20Your%20Sector/Cycling‐Marklet‐Research‐2013.pdf) In the context of route selection this research clearly demonstrates the preference for greenways to have the following attributes:

Scenery is the main priority amongst both the domestic and overseas markets.

There is a strong preference for safe and traffic free routes particularly to meet the needs of the high proportion of cyclists who travel with children.

As can be seen from the above sections the area has significant potential which lends itself to this particular type of project and the existing assets and strengths of the area resonate with this particular type of project.

5.1.3 Targeted policy

The positive impacts of Tourism Policy and specifically cycling related interventions are set out in the following paragraphs. This demonstrates how such policy can help address the Need for the scheme. The proposed route forms part of Eurovelo Route 1. In March 2006 the European Commission (EC) adopted a renewed Tourism Policy with the main objective to contribute to ‘improving the competitiveness of the European tourism industry and creating more and better jobs through the sustainable growth of tourism in Europe and globally.’ 10 EuroVelo (Figure 2) is a network of 14 long distance cycle routes connecting and uniting the whole European continent. In 2009, the European Parliament adopted a resolution to include EuroVelo in the trans‐European transport network. Euro Velo 1 is in the Republic of Ireland, Atlantic Coast Route – where much of the route has yet to be developed with the exception of the Great Western and Great Southern trails respectively. The National Cycle Policy Framework 2009 to 2020 sets out government policy in relation to the development of cycling in Ireland. This document is framed within the Governments wider transportation policy ‘Smarter Travel ‐ A Sustainable Transport Future'. The document highlights that ' Cycling tourism is an important activity as it brings money directly into rural Ireland. This is especially important in the context of the current trend in which visitors are taking shorter breaks mainly to cities (Fáilte Ireland, 2007)'. Objective 3 of the policy stated that it is an objective to 'Provide designated rural cycle networks especially for visitors and recreational cycling'. The document states 'The development of cycle tourism presents a particular opportunity to bring the economic benefits of tourism to the rural



areas of Ireland. Cyclists enjoy the outdoor rural environment, they stay longer in an area, and since they cannot carry much in the way of provisions on their bikes, they need to shop locally and regularly thus benefiting local providers.' In July 2012 the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government established the Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas. The 2014 final report ‘Energising Ireland’s Rural Economy’ focused on a range of measures which are intended to support the economic regeneration of rural communities. The report outlines the challenges facing rural communities throughout the Country and identifies the needs, potential and objectives for rural economic development. The report included a number of recommendations in the tourism sphere. The report cites the development of the Mayo Greenway as an example of how rural areas can be developed through investment in local projects. In July 2015 the government launched the South West Region ‐ Action Plan for Jobs 2015 to 2017. This document examines the areas of potential for job creation throughout the South West region and identifies the development of a network of integrated greenways as an objective of the strategy. Action 52 of the strategy states: 'Action 52’, Undertake further work on route options and feasibility studies for potential development of Greenways in the region.....' Chapter 4 of this document contains a full outline of the planning and policy context underpinning the scheme.

5.2 Scheme Objectives.

The objectives for the development of the South Kerry Greenway are to:

Increase the economic contribution of tourism to the Irish economy, by increasing the value of tourism service exports, that is, by generating increased levels of overseas revenue

Provide a catalyst for the economic regeneration of the local economy by: o successfully delivering a world class visitor experience o supporting a tourism sector that is profitable and will achieve a sustainable level of growth and delivers

jobs o facilitating local communities to play an enhanced role in developing tourism in their area, thereby

strengthening and enriching local communities o recognising, valuing and enhancing the natural environment as the cornerstone of Irish tourism

Maximise the economic potential of the project by: o attracting the maximum number of visitors o optimising the amenity value of the route o designing the route for all users including the elderly and disabled as well as families with children. o maximising the safety of the route

Contribute to the health and well‐being of the local community by providing a facility which encourages physical exercise and participation in outdoor activities.

It is clearly recognised that maintaining a clear focus on the interests of the international visitor and on strengthening the appeal of greenway and its wider package to that market segment is central to the success of this project from a national perspective. Consequently, there has been a particular focus on ensuring an alignment of this tourism investment with the needs of the key targeted consumer segments. This project is perfectly aligned with the wider brand architecture that is the foundation of the approach of Fáilte Ireland to this target consumer segment. This project will achieve its core objectives as it will:

o successfully and consistently deliver an integrated and coherent world class visitor experience

o support a tourism sector that is profitable and will achieve a sustainable level of growth and job delivery


o facilitate local communities to play an enhanced role in developing tourism in their area, thereby strengthening and enriching local communities

o recognise, value and enhance the natural environment as the cornerstone of Irish tourism.

Domestic (non‐visitor) demand also contributes to revenue especially during non‐peak periods, however, this is not included in the Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) analysis that is presented in Section 6. The project has all the features that resonate with the best fit for an investment to attract additional overseas visitors such as: Consumer Centred: It puts the consumer at the centre of the tourism development – the needs of the consumer have informed the design and route selection Innovation: The design of the project is such that it excels in its quality and standard. It displays all the specific features that are highly valued by the ‘Great Escapers’ (the market segment that will use this product and who will be marketed to directly) that are targeted by this adventure/outdoors product, including being off road, safe, within scenic areas and a coherent part of a wider package of similar interests and attractions Adding value: The greenway links with the Gold Star International Dark Sky Reserve, The Wild Atlantic Way Discovery and Signature Viewing Points, UNESCO heritage site etc. in a coherent way. It allows the development a critical mass within a joined‐up location of unique and complimentary attractions to the target market groups thus ensuring an elongation of the stay in the wider area (many of the attractions require overnight stays in the area this will result in additional demand for the existing spare capacity that exists in this area for accommodation and catering and does not increase the demand in the already strong urban locations). Scale: The project is of a scale (in its own right) capable of achieving international cut‐through (that is, standing out among the large supply of alternative tourist destinations that are available internationally) and securing consumer attention – an important aspect of scale is the coherence the project brings to ‘additionality’ to the existing international stand‐alone attractions in the area. The project forms an important part of a wider network which will add to its scale in the future. Brand Architecture: This project perfectly sits within the Brand Architecture as promoted by Fáilte Ireland for the Great Escapers market segment to which it is targeted and promoted. Four of the five core pillars of Brand Architecture are:

Getting Active in Nature – revitalising and energising experiences and activities in the spectacular outdoors

Awakening the Senses – stimulating and profound experiences within natural and unspoiled landscapes

Living Historical Stories – interesting and informative experiences and attractions in urban and rural areas

Connecting with the People of Ireland – immersing themselves in Irish culture Consumer Segmentation: The project (and its ancillary attractions as above) is positioned as a tourism asset so that it directly mirrors the interests and requirements of the consumers identified in the most promising market segments. Fáilte Irelands development agenda have identified three priority target segments which show the best prospects for growing tourism in the main overseas markets. The Great Escapers is the core market segment for this project and the project itself resonates with expectations of this group of visitors. The economic basis for the rationale for targeting new overseas visitors is outlined in the following tables with the 2014 to 2016 trend in spend increasing.


Table 5.2(a): Financial background to the value of overseas visitors (2014)11

Table 5.2(b): Financial background to the value of overseas visitors (2016)12

Table 5.2(c): International and Domestic Visitor Income.

The international income for this graph is calculated from a spend figure of €89 per night. The revenue streams are calculated on a predicted number with a maximum and minimum model over 12 scenarios including variance in discount rate and visitor numbers (displacement).

11 Source: Fáilte Ireland, Tourism Facts 2014 (Preliminary), May 2015.

12 Source: Fáilte Ireland, Tourism Facts 2016 (Preliminary), June 2017.

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30Year

International and Domestic Visitor Income

International visitor income max

Domestic income max

Domestic income min

International visitor income min


There is no allowance made for additional income that will accrue as the market size increases over time. This is an outcome based project and its value is far more that the output of delivering a greenway of international highest standard which attracts and supports an additional international income stream.

5.3 Domestic Objectives

This project is aligned with the relevant core objectives of the recently launched County Kerry Tourism Strategy and Action Plan 2016‐2022, including:

o Increase the number of visitors to the county, their length of stay and spend, and to do so in a manner that is sustainable

o Nurture and protect our cultural heritage by supporting our people, communities and organisations who are

the source and guardians of this valuable asset

o Extend the tourism season across the county but, in particular, in areas where the tourism season is short

o Build a sustainable tourism future that emphasises the importance of taking particular care of the natural and built environment and also supports and nurtures the cultural heritage (e.g. Irish language, music, dance, storytelling and folklore) in such a way that these elements continue to prosper in a sustainable manner

o Increase the number, breadth, depth and quality of the tourism experiences across the county maximising

the opportunities presented by the Wild Atlantic Way

o Match and preferably exceed the Government’s projected growth rates for tourism (in real terms from 2014) ‐ outlined in People, Place and Policy (2015).

[selected objectives only].

The local impacts of the project will include local employment creation. The project will have four main benefits from an employment perspective: 1. Direct employment during construction. Direct employment during the construction phase, this involves those both directly involved in the construction and also suppliers of plant and materials for the works. A particular feature of this project is that though similar to roadworks projects in nature it does not have the same capacity for use of larger plant and machinery. Consequently, there is a higher proportion of the capital spend on more labour intensive activities that would not be the case in traditional roads schemes, for example use of smaller plant and equipment will require additional drivers to mirror the level of production that would be possible in more open sites (eg roads). As noted in the CEDRA Report .. ‘Additionally, during construction, greenway investment helps to stimulate employment as these types of projects are more labour intensive when compared to major projects, such as motorway schemes, which are mainly delivered by machines. In general, from experience to date, this type of construction has been outsourced by local authorities to contractors thus boosting local economies further’. The Strategy for the Future Development of Greenway (Consultation Paper May 2017) states on page 11 that ‘The development and construction of greenways also has a positive impact on job creation both during the construction phase and following completion, in the services/tourism sector. In a study on the labour intensity of public investment, the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform estimates that approximately 12 construction jobs will be created for every €1 million of capital investment. The tourism sector sees an output of 29 jobs for every €1 million of capital investment. It can therefore be expected that the delivery of an expanded investment programme in greenways will see a significant number of jobs created in both the construction phase and more permanently in the services/hospitality sector in the localities served by greenways.’ 2. Direct employment as a result of the increased visitor numbers.


This is the direct spin off from the additional visitors that will be attracted to the area. Fáilte Ireland estimate that 29 jobs are supported for each additional €1m spend. The additional spend for international visitors (only) is estimated at € 4.51 m which will directly support 130 jobs. 3. Indirect employment (and elongation of the employment season) as a result of the increased numbers (this

includes the impact of day trippers). The indirect employment will be generated as a result of the spend generated by all visitors to the area. The domestic (visitor and day tripper) spend has the effect of elongating the season into the shoulder period of the year. This spend is estimated at € 8.21 million per annum. 4. Multiplier effect on local employment. A very significant feature of this project is the nature of the employment opportunities that will be created and sustained by the greenway. Aside from the tourist industry opportunities in accommodation and catering there are the direct services related to maintenance and upkeep of the greenway and specific needs of the visitors (bike rental/repair etc). Much of this work can be completed in out of season periods and provides sustainable jobs opportunities across the year. It is estimated that for each productive job created that the multiplier is 1.25 for services and related supports giving an additional support for 32 jobs13. The above figures are derived only from the Greenway. How the Greenway interacts with the overall market in the area is of great importance. The level of alignment and linkage of the project with other attractions will lead to the benefits of additionality, scale, and elongation of stay being realised and the above figures being surpassed. 5. Spread of positive effect of tourism outside of urban centre. This project provides an attraction that will encourage overnight visitors to the area. This is an important aspect as it utilises spare capacity in the accommodation and catering sector that is present in the area and acts as a counter balance to the larger centre which facilities the day trip visitor to the area.

5.4 Other Local Benefits

Domestic day trip income. This source of income is particularly important as it is a year round revenue stream and has a multiplier effect in the local economy. The value of this stream is calculated at € 1,497,113 (see section 6.4.5 for calculation). This has not been included in the BCR analysis in Section 6. A multiplier of 1.28 is appropriate for such expenditure as per the URS Scott Wilson report (as referenced below) giving an effect of € 1.90 million locally. Health Benefits. The health benefits of an active lifestyle are undisputed. However, deriving a tangible for such is very difficult. Research by Deenihan et al has highlighted these difficulties and in view of same the benefit is recognised though not quantified in this assessment. Local Recreational Resource. The Greenway provides a year round local recreational resource for the communities along its route.

13 West Cork Maximising the Benefits of Walking Tourism – Economic Impact of Walking Tourism in West Cork, URS Scott Wilson, 2011, Section

5.16.


Case studies.

The following is a part copy of the conclusion from page 10 of ‘Measuring the Success of the Great Western Greenway in Ireland’ Deenihan et al.

The following is an extract from report of the Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas (CEDRA), page 71.


5.5 Metrics of Project Performance and Outcomes.

5.5.1 Outputs/Outcomes and Metrics

Output Target and metric

Output 1 – Completion of the greenway construction phase

Completion of the greenway on programme and on budget – precise budget and programme to be developed subject to planning

Output 2 ‐ Annual maintenance of the greenway

Enter into annual maintenance contract through local development company

Outcomes

Target and metric

Outcome 1 – Number of visitors using the greenway

Target is 259,670 visits when in full operation – number to be validated by methods outlined in 5.4.3 below

Outcome 2 – Number of international visitors using the greenway

Determine the number of international visitors – target 59,724 (year 8)

Outcome 3 – Increase in local spend associated with greenway users

Determine the spend associated with greenway users

Outcome 4 – Increase in local accommodation availability and occupancy rates

Monitor the level of accommodation available locally and determine bed nights associated with greenway users

Outcome 5 – Increase in local employment

Determine the increase in employment from greenway use

5.5.2 Project development and construction phase

Complete the construction phase on programme and within budget

5.5.3 Project Operational Phase (data acquisition)

Item Action Timeline Duration

1 Install counting devises on the greenway at the main public access points in order to capture data on visitor numbers and profile using the facility.

Commence on opening

Continuous

2 Install traffic counters at each car park to capture data on vehicle movements.

Commence on opening

Continuous

3 Undertake appropriately sized customer satisfaction surveys and at different periods during the year.

3 per year at two locations

Until 3 years after the full greenway is developed

4 Invite feedback on the user experience through the South Kerry Greenway website.

Commence on opening

Continuous


5 Seek information from Destination Kerry, Chambers Alliance and other local groups on the impact the project has had on local economic and employment activity.

Commence on opening

Annually

Taking the above data demonstrate what impact the project has had on:

o visitor numbers o their origin o their spend o stay duration o reason for visiting the area in the first instance o visitor experience o economic activity o employment (determine from the information in point 5 what has been the impact on employment

opportunities and elongation of employment periods in the project area). Compare these evidence based outcomes against the project objectives.


Section 6. Economic Appraisal – Benefit‐Cost Ratio Analysis

6.1 Summary and Methodology.

This section details the approach to the Economic Appraisal of the project. The guiding principles in the Benefit‐Cost Ratio (BCR) economic appraisal have been:

o to present an evidence based position o to only include aspects of the project that can be monetarised and valued o (other features of the project that have a positive impact are listed but are not included in the financial

analysis) o to be prudent and conservative where assumptions have had to be made o to highlight such assumptions and set out the rational underpinning them o to apply a sensitivity analysis so as to develop an envelope of outcomes

Table 6.1 presents a ‘Balance Sheet’ for the project which highlights those factors that are included in the BCR analysis and those which have a positive impact and are listed for consideration (but not included in the BCR).

Table 6.1: Project Balance Sheet

Benefits Costs

Specifically measured in BCR

International visitor income Capital costsDomestic visitor income Maintenance costs Marketing costs

Not included in the BCR analysis

Domestic day trip income – additional Alignment of project with other strategies Additionality – scale, elongation of stay Linkage with other attractionsDirect employment creationIndirect employment creationMultiplier effect on local employment Multiplier effect on local income Health Benefits/Recreational Use

6.2 Demand

In April 2013, Fáilte Ireland commissioned market research consultants, ‘Strategic Marketing’, to undertake a Target Cycling Market Survey.14 The purpose of the survey was to:

o Understand the scale of potential for cycling holidays in Ireland by overseas visitors o Investigate the key requirements of the target market for cycling holidays o Understand the characteristics of the target cycling market.

14 http://www.failteireland.ie/FailteIreland/media/WebsiteStructure/Documents/In%20Your%20Sector/Cycling‐Marklet‐Research‐2013.pdf


More than 15,000 online surveys were taken with a representative sample of respondents from Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Ireland. Feedback from the survey provided valuable information to support the South Kerry Greenway business case. Strategic Marketing applied the findings from the survey to estimate a maximum core potential market for cycling holidays in Ireland over the next 3 years. They identified a maximum core potential of 19.5 million people as set out in the following table.

Table 6.2: Core Potential Market

Country of Origin and Core Potential Market (million)

Comment

Germany

11.1

Among the countries surveyed, Germany has the largest potential market for cycling in Ireland, with a large population, high proportion of people who cycle abroad and a well established cycling culture.

Britain

4.4

Growth in recreational cycling in the UK will have a positive spin off impact on the demand for cycle tourism in Ireland; however, the survey has shown that British respondents were more likely to reject Ireland on the basis of poor weather. Nevertheless, Britain does present a significant potential market for cycling trips to Ireland.

Netherlands

1.3

The Netherlands represents a smaller potential market but, based on it’s well established culture for cycling could present a sizeable level of interest.

France

2.7

A smaller proportion of the French market is likely to consider Ireland for a cycling holiday, mainly on the basis that a large proportion of French respondents stated that they do not travel abroad for holidays.

Domestic

0.721

A domestic market of 721,000 over the next three years was also identified

6.2.1 Cycling Holiday Preferences

The Fáilte Ireland Target Cycling Market Survey is a valuable resource for preparation of this Business Case. A maximum core market of 19.5 million people from Britain, France, Germany and The Netherlands has been identified in this survey which provides valuable information in relation to the quality of product that international visitors expect from a cycling holiday in Ireland. Routes through ‘beautiful landscape/scenery’ was the most important criterion by a significant margin for international and domestic visitors, followed by segregated off road cycling which provides access to attractive urban areas. Feedback from both domestic and international respondents is quite similar. The first, second and third attributes outlined by both markets are the same, giving the project team a very clear message that the proposed route needs to:

o Run through scenic landscapes o Offer traffic free cycling, and o Offer a high standard of safety.

Other important attributes for international respondents in choosing a cycling holiday destination included access to attractive towns blended with access to wild and diverse landscapes. The research indicates the groups will contain a relatively high proportion of children ‐ which suggests that safety, comfortable gradients and frequency of services (shops, food, accommodation). There is a strong preference for cycling distances between services of less than 15km and a maximum of 20km.


As outlined in Table 6.2.115, 742,000 overseas visitors engaged in hiking/cross country walking and 241,000 overseas visitors engaged in cycling while in Ireland in 2013. The above figures confirm the continued growth of hiking and cycling and the most popular cycling regions visited were in the south west (Kerry/Cork). It is recognised that hiking and cycling tourism represents a growing and valuable market, particularly for rural areas.

Table 6.2.1: Fáilte Ireland Research of Overseas Visitors engaging in Activities in 2013

Overseas Visitors (‘000s) Spend in Ireland (€mn)

Hiking/Cross Country Walking 742 650

Cycling 241 232

In conclusion, the Target Cycling Market Survey establishes that there is a strong market demand for a project of this nature providing safe, traffic free cycling through some of the most spectacular scenery in the country.

6.3 Project Costs

6.3.1 Capital Investment

The project delivery costs of a project of this nature are significant and can be broken down in three broad categories as follows:

o Design

o CPO and Planning

o Procurement and Construction. It is an objective of the project, in an effort to capitalise on its economic benefits, to maximise the number of users of all abilities. This necessitates providing access for young and old, attracting families and making it suitable for disabled persons. The track therefore incorporates a bitumen macadam finish to improve safety and ride comfort and all design gradients are minimised where possible. For large sections of the project the route runs along the line of the old railway, only departing where there are obstructions or significant construction difficulties encountered. Notwithstanding this the old railway line has been abandoned for in excess of 50 years and much of the associated infrastructure has not been maintained over this period. This includes drainage to the old line and multiple smaller structures as well as the larger structures including the Gleensk Viaduct and the Caherciveen River bridge. In a number of locations the track has been removed by the adjacent landowners. In addition, a significant portion of the old track along the Drung Hill section approaching and following the tunnels is no longer intact and has collapsed at places. Multiple design options have been considered at this location in the context of minimising the impact, maximising the view and safety of users and also minimising the construction costs. While it was envisaged at the inception stage of this project that it might be possible to acquire the land by agreement with the landowners, it became apparent following extensive negotiations, that this would not be possible. It is necessary therefore to use the CPO powers available to the Council to try and progress the project. This will add significant additional costs in professional fees and project resources. Grant funding from the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport of €3,458,281 was approved in April 2014. In addition, Kerry County council received Stimulus Funding of €450,000 in 2014 for the completion of the Greenway as far as Reenard Point, thereby connecting the route with the ferry crossing to Valentia Island. Kerry County Council has pledged additional funding out of its own resources to fund the Greenway scheme.

15 www.failteireland.ie/research


6.3.1.1 Planning/CPO and Design

The formal design stage of the scheme will be undertaken subject to approval to proceed. It will build upon the preliminary design and information gathered as part of the Planning and CPO process. The preliminary estimated cost of the CPO including professional fees is €5,779,265. This refers to land cost, injurious affection/severance, residential impact, disturbance and fees. The Planning Costs are estimated at €983,000. This refers to the preparation of the EIAR and CPO documents.

6.3.1.2 Procurement and Construction Costs.

A detailed assessment of the construction cost has been completed and is included in the appendices. The Capital Infrastructure Unit have developed construction cost estimates at each option location along the route between Reenard point and Glenbeigh. The option location cost estimates were developed by Kerry County Council’s Chartered Quantity Surveyor in accordance with the policy guidelines within the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DoPER) Capital Works Management Framework Guidelines (CWMF). In particular, the Cost Planning and Cost Control pillar of these guidelines was consulted while compiling estimates. In addition, Kerry County Council have referred to the NRA (now TII) Cost Management Manual (Rev 01, March 2010) and have taken into consideration the key principles of this manual which sets the minimum acceptable cost management standards to apply on TII projects. Kerry County Council referred to this manual on the basis that there would be similarities between the key deliverables, principles, constraints and risks between an TII road scheme and a cycling infrastructure project. The construction cost estimates have used established cost planning techniques to determine the appropriate cost model for the proposed works at each option location. The estimates are based on drawings, site visit information, assumptions made, meetings and discussions between the project team on the most cost effective method of construction of the works. Close collaboration at this stage of the project between the project team members will prove to maximise cost benefits and ensure realistic and accurate estimates are developed. Kerry County Council estimates are based on the cost of wages, materials and plant and contractor and supplier costs currently pertaining in the industry and includes for project preliminaries, supervision, overheads and risk contingency. The estimates reported are exclusive of Value Added Tax. The method of measurement that was consulted while producing cost estimates is the Agreed Rules of Measurement (ARM 4) as prepared by the Joint Committee established by the Construction Industry Federation and the Society of Chartered Surveyors of Ireland. The estimating methodologies that were adopted while producing cost estimates were elemental estimating and unit cost estimating. The estimated construction cost is €13.860 million inclusive of VAT. 6.3.2 Maintenance

It is envisaged that Kerry County Council will be responsible for maintaining the proposed route. Estimates of maintenance costs have been calculated based on similar schemes nationally which cost approximately €3,000 per km per annum. These schemes however do not have a bound surface finish. It is considered that the maintenance costs of the scheme proposed will be of the order of €2,500 per km per annum. 6.3.3 Marketing and Branding

Kerry County Council’s Tourism Unit along with Fáilte Ireland will have a significant role to play in promoting this tourism asset. Capturing the domestic and international target market for the Greenway will not only require design and development of the physical infrastructure but also the development of a unique brand proposition that


motivates international visitors to come to Ireland and enjoy our cycle networks. Importantly, it is envisaged that in consultation with the local trade and communities along the route, the brand proposition will also provide a framework for trade engagement so that a quality, consistent and coherent offer is presented to the visitor. Because success of the Greenway is largely dependent on its potential to draw domestic and international visitors to the Greenway, an annual ongoing budget of €25,000 should is assigned to the task of branding and marketing. In addition a one off launch campaign is assumed in year one at a cost of €100,000. 6.3.4 Cost Summary

The following table summarises the identified cost centres for the project.

Table 6.3.4: Summary of Cost Centres

Description Note Amount, €

Design and Planning 983,000

Land cost/CPO 4,016,500

Accommodation works 917,500

Professional fess (CPO) 845,265

Construction 13,860,000

Maintenance €2,500 per km per annum 75,000

Branding Year 1 cost 100,000

Marketing Per annum from year 2 25,000

6.4 Project Benefits and Returns

Fáilte Irelands Strategy for the development of Cycling Tourism in Ireland (2007) identified that the cycling tourism sector contributed €34.5million to the Irish economy in 2005 whilst in 2009 overseas visitors who cycled in Ireland spent an estimated €94 million. According to Fáilte Ireland's figures, ‘Tourism Facts 201’, combined spending by international tourists and Irish residents taking trips in Ireland has increased to €8.3 billion in 2016 from €6.16 billion in 2013.16 The development of Greenways is seen as a major opportunity to enhance this sector and will contribute to developing the tourism economy in key tourist destinations such as the Ring of Kerry. 6.4.1 Great Western Greenway

The most reliable figure available for estimating the potential returns from the proposed project are those provided by Fitzpatrick Associates, Economic Consultants arising from their Economic Impact Case Study on the Great Western Greenway and Mayo County Council counter data. This report was commissioned by Fáilte Ireland and completed in October 2011. The study found that approximately 70% of domestic visitors and about 45% of overseas visitors considered the Greenway to be an important factor in their decision to visit the local area. This figure is relevant in that it is considered the balance of visitors would have come anyway and would not contribute additional income to the local economy as a result of visiting the greenway.

16 www.failteireland.ie/tourism facts and figures 2016 (Preliminary)


On the basis of surveys carried out by Mayo County Council the study indicated the following spend per visitor to the area.

Table 6.4.1: Average Duration of Stay and Average Spend ‐ May to Sept 2011 (Mayo County Council).

Average Daily Spend Average length of stay

(days)

Expenditure

/ person / trip

Local user €27 n/a €27

Domestic visitor €50 5.2 €259

Overseas visitor €51 7.4 €375

All users €42 6.6 €251

The Economic Impact Assessment estimated that in 2011 alone, the scheme contributed €7.2m to the local economy in direct expenditure with €3.8m of this being attributable to visitors who considered the Greenway an important factor in deciding to visit the area. These values are in line with similar research from around Europe. According to the study prepared for the European Parliament in 2012, cycle tourists spend on average €57.08 per day, including expenditure on accommodation. On the basis of an average length of stay of 7.7 days, the average spend per person per trip was estimated to total €439. Data from the survey indicated that in total there were 144,000 trips along the greenway in 2011. More accurate data recorded by Trinity College Dublin shows that the actual number of annual trips in 2012 was 177,000. The most recent counter data from Mayo County Council indicates that the visitor number is 259,670 in 2016. Surveys also indicated that 80% of visitors would make the return journey on their visit. Using these figures, it is calculated that there were 80,000 visitors using the Greenway in 2011. Users came from three key source markets, broken down as follows:

o the local Co. Mayo market (38%), 30,400 visits o the “domestic visitor” market (39%), 31,200 visits o the “overseas visitor” market (23%), 18,400 visits

6.4.2 South Kerry Greenway

To estimate the potential visitor numbers to the South Kerry Greenway, the 2016 counter data from Mayo has been adopted. The Great Western Greenway is very similar in its attributes to the South Kerry Greenway. It is within a strong tourist area and it is removed from larger urban influences. In this context it is conservative in assumption that the SKG would attract at least the same number of visitors as the Great Western Greenway per annum. Table 6.4.2 (a) sets out the tourist numbers that currently visit both areas. The figures demonstrate that Kerry attracts in the order of three times as many overseas visitors and twice as many domestic visitors each year. Therefore, adopting the same level of use as the Great Western Greenway is a prudent and conservative assumption (the BCR analysis includes for the effect of displacement).


Table 6.4.2(a): Fáilte Ireland ‘Regional Tourism Performance 2016’

The additional visitor numbers are allocated between domestic and international visitors as it is not envisaged that there would be a significant difference in the number of local users visiting the greenway. There is no reason to assume that the spend per visitor would be any different from that experienced in Mayo. On this basis the projected visitor numbers to the South Kerry Greenway per annum and projected spend are calculated as follows.

Table 6.4.2(b): Projected Visitor Numbers and Spend

Local Domestic International Total

Total trips on Mayo Greenway 2016 98,675 (38%) 101,271 (39%)

59,724 (23%) 259,670

Projected Trips on Kerry Greenway – in operation 98,675 101,271 59,724 259,670

80% do return trip on a single day (÷1.8) 54,819 56,262 33,180 144,261

Multiple uses of Greenway on a single visit (÷2) n/a 28,131 16,590 72,130

Persons n/a 28,131 16,590 72,130

* Average daily Spend per person € 27.31 71.00 89.00

Average length of stay ‐ nights n/a 4.8 6.8 n/a

Note *: Figures for Domestic and International daily spend are referenced from ‘Tourism Facts 2016 Preliminary’ Fáilte Ireland, June 2017.

6.4.3 International Visitors

The table below indicates the total projected annual spend by international visitors to the South Kerry Greenway. It indicates that 16,465 people are projected to visit the Greenway, with an average daily spend of €89.00 (Tourism Facts 2016 – Fáilte Ireland, spend per day per person).

Overseas visitors (000’s) to Counties in Domestic Travel (000’s) by Irish residents in

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015

Kerry 877 1,040 1,026 767 656 708

Mayo 218 259 302 399 348 385


Table 6.4.3: Estimated Spend in South Kerry Greenway Arising from International Visitors

Estimated Spend in South Kerry Greenway Arising from International Visitors

Number of International Visitors 16,590

Average Daily Spend €89.00

Average Length of Stay 6.8

TOTAL DIRECT SPEND € 10,040,285

As mentioned in section 4.3.1, 45% of international visitors considered the presence of the Greenway as an important factor in deciding to visit the area. Consequently, the additional international income is taken as 45% of the above figure € 4,518,128. It can be assumed that the balance would have visited the area anyway and that therefore the Greenway does not generate additional income from those visitors. Visitors who were attracted by the presence of the greenway therefore would spend a projected € 4.52 million during their visit. 6.4.4 Domestic Visitors

The table below indicates the total projected annual spend by domestic visitors to the South Kerry Greenway. It indicated that 28,131 people are projected to visit the Greenway, with an average daily spend of €71.00 (Tourism Facts 2016 – Fáilte Ireland, spend per day per person).

Table 6.4.4: Estimated Spend in South Kerry Greenway Arising from Domestic Visitors

Estimated Spend in South Kerry Greenway Arising from Domestic Visitors

Number of Domestic Visitors 28,131

Average Daily Spend €71.00

Average Length of Stay 4.8


70% of domestic visitors considered the presence of the Greenway as an important factor in deciding to visit the area. Visitors who were attracted by the presence of the greenway therefore would spend a projected € 6.71 million during their visit (70% of the amount in the table).


6.4.5 Local Users

The table below indicates the total projected annual spend by local users of the South Kerry Greenway.

Table 6.4.5: Estimated Spend in South Kerry Greenway Arising from Local Users

Estimated Spend in South Kerry Greenway Arising from Local Users

Number of Visitors 54,819

Average Daily Spend € 27.31

Average Length of Stay n/a


Again, the value for local usage and expenditure is excluded from the local level impact as it is money that is already in the economy. It is reasonable to assume that most of it would be spent in the local economy regardless of whether or not local residents used the Greenway. On this basis it is projected that the South Kerry greenway will provide € 19,627,301 in direct expenditure to the local economy of the area. It is estimated that € 11,229,040 of this is directly attributable to visitors who would otherwise not have visited or stopped in the area.

6.5 Benefit‐Cost Ratio.

The benefit‐cost ratio is a technique used to evaluate the overall value for money of a project or proposal. A BCR is the ratio of the benefits of a project or proposal, expressed in monetary terms, relative to its costs, also expressed in monetary terms. All benefits and costs are expressed in discounted present values. Benefit‐cost ratio is one element of an overall cost benefit analysis. In an overall analysis all factors are considered including more intangible aspects such as long‐term health benefits, safety, community development etc. For the purpose of this exercise the analysis has been confined to clearly defined income and expenditure figures. The Test Discount Rate for Economic Appraisal applied is 5.0% as per E‐02 of the Public Spending Code17 which sets out the current discount rate that should be used in relation to economic appraisals. Shadow Pricing of Public Funds is set at 130% as per E04 of the Public Spending Code17. While many of the capital costs associated with the project are for an indefinite period, such as the land purchase, design and planning process, the period for the purpose of the analysis has been set at 30 years. The following assumptions have been made in the preparation of the BCR:

o It is assumed that it will take 5 years post completion of construction to reach full benefit potential with no income accruing in years 1‐3 during the 3 year project construction stage. This is a conservative view as the project will be constructed and opened in stages throughout this period.

17 The Public Spending Code: E. Technical References, Test Discount Rate for Economic Appraisal – 5% E‐02, Shadow Pricing 130% E‐04


o The analysis makes no allowance for sunk costs relating to project feasibility studies.

o No provision is taken of the residual value of the scheme.

o No provision is made for property price appreciation.

o Despite the projected job creation arising from the project no allowance is made for taxes and transfer payments. The BCR has been calculated excluding the less tangible benefits associated with health, absenteeism and safety as no reliable data could be obtained for similar schemes.

o Construction costs include a contingency of 10%

o Allowing for shadow pricing of public funds at 130%

These assumptions are considered to provide a conservative baseline for calculation of the project's cost /benefits. Notwithstanding the above a number of other cases have been developed in order to stress test these assumptions and projections, these relate to:

o increasing the discount rate to 8.0% o neglecting any increase in visitors over Mayo projections o providing for displacement for both domestic and international visitor numbers o increasing project contingency provision

Figure 6.5(a): Discounted Cumulative Profit and Loss Line (Maximum and Minimum).

The above graph plots the maximum and minimum points for all the scenarios analysed. It shows the discounted cumulative profit and loss line over the review period. It includes international and domestic visitor income only (it does not include the contribution from domestic day trippers). Thus, the project will break even at worst case in year 14 and best case year 9 with a profit return over the review period of between €80.29 million to €19.15 million.

-40,000,000

-20,000,000

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

NPV

Year

Scenario Envelope

Max Min


Figure 6.5(b): BCR, Discount Rate and Displacement.

The above graph illustrates the sensitivity on the BCR for the scenarios analysed while changing the discount rate and levels of displacement. The lowest BCR that will be achieved (confined only to international and domestic visitor income) is 1.80 rising to 4.12 when the discount rate and levels of displacement are adjusted in line with the sensitivity analysis. 6.5.1 Displacement.

The effect of displacement has been analysed in relation to the Domestic and International visitor markets separately (not domestic day trippers) as they are the only revenue streams included in the calculation of the BCR. In relation to the Domestic Visitors a Constant Displacement Factor of 40%, 30% and 20% has been taken in scenarios 1 to 6 and 60%, 50% and 40% for scenarios 7 to 12 while holding other factors constant. This is a prudent and very conservative approach. Displacement of the International Visitors Market Segment (Great Escapers) has been treated differently. A sliding scale over 8 years has been taken with an initial displacement of 40% reducing by 5% per annum has been referenced in scenarios 1 to 6 and 60% sliding to 20% (permanently) in scenarios 7 to 12. The rational for this approach in scenarios 1 to 6 is due to ‘Market inflation’. The ‘Great Escapers’ is a core market segment for Fáilte Ireland. Significant effort and resources will be targeted at this market with a view to growing it with specific emphasis on the UK, France, Germany and the USA. As the overall market grows the numbers attracted to such a facility will increase without detracting from the numbers visiting other similar themed attractions. Thus, the numbers can grow without causing further displacement.

Table 6.5.1: Failte Ireland Growth Metrics

3.543.83

4.12

2.48

2.682.89

2.572.86

3.15

1.802.00

2.20

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50BC

R

Scenario

BCR and Discount Rate and Displacement

5% S1, 2, 3 8% S4, 5 ,6 5% S7, 8, 9 8% S10, 11, 12


The above table summarises the stated targets in the Tourism Development and Innovation, A Strategy for Investment 2016‐2020, Fáilte Ireland. This sees a 32% increase in tourist numbers from 2014 to 2025. The BCR analysis has an 8 year sliding scale for displacement allowing for construction ending in 2029. This sees the initial 40% displacement being reduced incrementally by 5% over 8 years which mirrors the increasing market size for this project type. As a test of this assumption the scenario of 60% displacement sliding to 20% permanently is also run.

The international visitor profile for the Greenway over 11 years is being modelled as 0% for the first 3 years construction and then and increase in footfall at an increment of 20% per annum for the next five years the suppression of these numbers due to displacement is then applied. The project as described in the previous chapter ties together a number of outdoor based attractions creating a critical mass with regard to brand, linkage, scale, innovation, additionality and customer focus. The entire area will attract new visitors in its own right as there will be significant and integrated attractions creating this critical mass for the Great Escapers. The elongation of the stay period in the area will be catered for by the spare capacity in the catering and accommodation sectors in the area. As it stands most visitors are day trippers staying overnight in the larger urban areas such as Killarney. The use pattern for such an attraction will require staying overnight in the specific area (taken in conjunction with Dark Skies International Gold Star Reserve, Astro Tourism etc). As identified in the Tourism Strategy there is sufficient residual capacity in the area to cater for this increase in stay duration. Details of the financial appraisal are contained in Appendix 3 of this document.

6.5.2 Summary of BCR analysis

Assumptions underlying all scenarios

o No Income in years 1 to 3 o 5 years to reach full income on sliding scale of 20% increases per annum o Displacement of International visitors reduces from 40% to 0% and 60% to 20% over 8 years commencing year 3 o No sunk costs included o No allowance for residual value of scheme o No provision for property price appreciation o No allowance for taxes and transfer payments o No allowance for health, safety and absenteeism o Shadow Pricing of the use Public Funds has been included at 130%

6.6 Economic Appraisal Conclusions

Taking data from other greenways there is clearly strong domestic and overseas demand for these project types which has the potential to reinvigorate the economy of this part of South Kerry. It capitalises on the greatest asset of the area, its scenery, while providing a safe and traffic free cycling environment. The project is primarily tourism based and while there will be local use of the project, due to the small local population the associated health benefits, absenteeism and safety benefits have been excluded from the analysis. Less tangible externalities such as community development and property value increases have also been excluded. It is considered that exclusion of these factors leads to a more conservative view of the overall BCR. Notwithstanding this the BCR has been subjected to a sensitivity analysis using different scenarios as outline. This process has provided a range results with the BCR ranging from a best outcome scenario of 4.12 to a most conservative case scenario of 1.80. This conservative case scenario, with a BCR of 1.80 indicates that the project will still have a significant positive social and economic impact.


Section 7. Project Delivery

7.1 Land Ownership

The land for the Cahersiveen to Glenbeigh route is substantially in private ownership as the route of the old rail line reverted back to the adjoining landowners when the rail line ceased to operate. Considering the scale of public investment required and the need to protect the integrity of the cycleway and its future use, it is considered that the land necessary for the construction should be in public ownership. While the majority of landowners are very positive towards the proposed Greenway, despite extensive consultation and negotiations it has not been possible to acquire the necessary land by agreement. It is the intention, therefore, to acquire the land using the Compulsory Purchase Powers available to the Council. Extensive consultation involving numerous public meetings have taken place with landowners and interested parties to inform them of progress on the scheme including the planning and CPO process. These consultations are ongoing.

7.2 Planning.

7.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment and Appropriate Assessment.

Due to the scale and proximity of the proposed Greenway to a few Natura 2000 Sites, the Stage 1 Appropriate Assessment of the project determined that a Natura Impact Statement should be prepared for the project. This NIS assessed the potential impact of the proposed project on all SACs and SPAs / Ramsar sites which are within a 15km radius of the proposed route. 7.2.2 Planning and CPO Procedure

The internal EIA screening procedures carried out by the Council determined that the project required the completion of an EIA. This was confirmed in the decision of An Bord Pleanála and its subsequent direction 08.HD0039. As the scheme is a proposed road development which requires an EIAR within the meaning of section 50 (1)(b) of the Roads Act 1993 (as amended). Kerry County Council will be applying directly to An Bord Pleanála this will involve the submission of an EIAR accompanied by detailed planning drawings. This application will be considered in tandem with the CPO application and will result in an Oral Hearing by An Bord Pleanála.

7.3 Risk Assessment

There are always a number of risks associated with the delivery of a project of this complexity. The identified risks are:

o Uncertainty in relation to the success of the CPO and Planning process. While it is not possible to totally remove this risk it is considered that by following due process in the preparation of the necessary documentation that it is minimised as far as possible. This process includes the preparation of a robust route options report, having clear development plan objectives, the completion of the Appropriate Assessment and EIA procedures and judicious route selection to minimise the impact of the development where possible. Where there are likely to be impacts the provision of strong mitigation measures to minimise them to an acceptable level. The project is strongly supported in the Policies and Objectives of the Regional Planning guidelines, the Kerry County Development Plan and the Caherciveen Local Area Plan.

o Construction costs and project overruns. Estimating the construction costs of a project of this nature, where the route traverses the route of an old railway line is a difficult process. The estimates provided however have been prepared following detailed analysis of the selected route and identification of the difficulties likely to be encountered. Notwithstanding this it is considered that the tendering of this project to an external contractor would increase the risk of claims on the contract and commit the


local authority to a contractual obligation. It is therefore considered prudent, in order to minimise this risk, that the Local Authority will construct the project, excluding specialist tasks such as retaining structures and bridges and culverts, using internal project management resources. This will provide greater flexibility in the construction process and minimise any costs arising due to unforeseen circumstances leading to delay. Project estimates utilised in the financial appraisal base case include contingency costs of 10%.

o Projected incomes do not materialise. It is considered that the location of the route, on the ring of Kerry, in an area with an already established strong international and domestic marketing brand will be of huge benefit to the marketing of this scheme. In addition Fáilte Ireland and other Greenway routes will also be promoting the cycle tourism product for the Country. Experience in Mayo indicates that there is strong demand and growth in visitors number have exceeded all expectations. It is considered that the South Kerry greenway will provide a similar experience to that in Mayo.

7.4 Conclusions

This report has set out the Business case to determine a ‘justification for the 32km Greenway in South Kerry’ which will link with Fáilte Irelands ‘Existing and Potential Cycling Hubs’ as well as the National Cycle Network route in Ireland. The findings demonstrate that the proposed cycle route will strongly implement current Government policy in its capacity to:

o Strongly support the growth of recreational tourism by attracting international cycling tourists to Ireland to avail of a cycle route that will compare to the best in Europe

o Improve access by cycling (and also walking) to and within rural Ireland

o Maximise the value of existing infrastructure (disused railway line)

o Promote the culture of cycling in Ireland

o Support European objectives for sustainable tourism including delivery of a section of the Trans‐European

EuroVelo Cycle Route Network, and

o Provide a showcase for the potential of cycling tourism in Ireland as the first step towards the delivery of the overall National Cycle Network.

Extensive market research has been undertaken by Fáilte Ireland in a selection of key target markets across Europe (Germany, France, Netherlands and UK). These markets are expected to provide the majority of potential cycling tourists to Ireland. In ranking the preferences with regard to the attributes of a cycle route the research indicated that the top three attributes are, beautiful landscape and scenery, traffic free cycling and safety. The South Kerry Greenway is designed to provide all three and as such is ideally suited to capitalise on the potential markets available. The South Kerry Greenway will be almost entirely off‐road through rural areas. Another criterion to encourage international and domestic cyclists to the greenway is the world class scenery and landscape of South Kerry .It is adjacent to the renowned Ring of Kerry (N70) and ‘Wild Atlantic Way’, has spectacular views overlooking Kells Bay, the iconic Dingle Peninsula as well as the 230m Drung Hill tunnels and Victorian Gleesk Viaduct. It is important to ensure that adequate marketing is provided, particularly in the early stages of the scheme. Because of the importance of marketing in realising the potential of the scheme, a specific budget within Kerry County Councils Tourism Unit will be provided to promote the scheme To fulfil the long‐term purpose of the cycle route, which is to attract tourists with its associated economic benefits to South Kerry, it will be essential that the quality of the cycle route is maintained throughout its lifetime. Kerry County Council will be responsible for maintaining the proposed route. Estimates of maintenance costs have been calculated on the basis of similar schemes nationally at €2,500/ km per annum, this budget must be included in future budget arrangements. The visitor numbers used in the Economic Appraisal section do not take account of any annual growth as is currently being experienced on the Mayo greenway. As such it is considered that the projections used are conservative.


Section 8. Appendices

Appendix 8.1: Summary of Relevant Planning and Policy Context Appendix 8.2: Route Map Appendix 8.3: Financial Appraisal Appendix 8.4: Cost Estimates (Construction).


Appendix 8.1 Summary of Relevant Planning and Policy Context

8.1 Policy

8.1.1 European Policy

In March 2006 the European Commission (EC) adopted a renewed Tourism Policy with the main objective to contribute to ‘improving the competitiveness of the European tourism industry and creating more and better jobs through the sustainable growth of tourism in Europe and globally’18. EuroVelo (Figure 8.1.11) is a network of 14 long distance cycle routes connecting and uniting the whole European continent. In 2009, the European Parliament adopted a resolution to include EuroVelo in the trans‐European transport network. EuroVelo 1 is in the Republic of Ireland, Atlantic Coast Route – where much of the route has yet to be developed with the exception of the Great Western and Great Southern trails respectively.

Figure 8.1: EuroVelo 1 Route

8.1.2 Smarter Travel – A Sustainable Transport Future 2009‐2020

Smarter Travel – A Sustainable Transport Future 2009‐2020 is the current national transport policy for Ireland. Through the policy, the Government reaffirms its vision for sustainability of transport in Ireland and sets out five key goals in this regard, namely:

o Reduce overall travel demand; o Maximise the efficiency of the transport network;



o Reduce reliance on fossil fuels; o Reduce transport emissions; and o Improve accessibility to transport.

To achieve these goals, the Government set the following key targets:

o Alternatives such as walking, cycling and public transport will be supported and provided to the extent that these will rise to 55% of total commuter journeys to work;

o The total kilometres travelled by the car fleet in 2020 will not increase significantly from current levels. 8.1.3 National Cycle Policy Framework

This document sets out the National Cycle Policy Framework, 2009‐2020. The backdrop to this policy is the Government’s new transport policy for Ireland 2009 ‐ 2020 Smarter Travel ‐ A Sustainable Transport Future. The policy document contains a specific objective relating to the development of the National Cycle Network throughout Ireland as follows: Objective 3 Provide designated rural signed cycle networks providing especially for visitors and recreational cycling Discussion Ireland currently does not have a National Cycle network on the ground. However, Fáilte Ireland has produced its Strategy for the Development of Irish Cycle Tourism (Fáilte Ireland, 2007). This strategy identified an approximately 3000km long network running from Donegal along the West, South and South‐east coasts and continuing along the East coast as far as the Northern Ireland border. While the main target market of the cycle tourism strategy is visitors – both overseas and domestic – the secondary target market is recreational cyclists. From the perspective of the National Cycle Policy Framework, encouraging recreational cycling is a key element of creating a cycling culture in Ireland and recreational routes in and around urban areas, which, in turn link to rural areas are very important. The network identified will mainly use a mix of minor roads, and some greenways. The greenways are especially important for, typically, the first 10km along the routes emanating from busy town centres which are heavily trafficked and particularly unattractive for inexperienced or very young cyclists. While the overall framework of the tourism network has been identified, there is more work to be carried out to identify further routes, particularly in the Midlands and particularly to use existing traffic free routes such as the canal and river tow paths. There is also further work to be carried out in identifying which sections of the extensive network of disused rail‐lines would be most suitable to be converted to high quality, traffic‐free routes suitable for cyclists of all ages and abilities. In response to this objective, the Minister for Transport approved the commissioning of the National Roads Authority (NRA) to undertake a scoping study in this regard, the outcome of which was the National Cycle Network Scoping Study (2010). 8.1.4 National Cycle Network Scoping Study (2010)

The National Cycle Network arising from the Scoping Study is illustrated in Figure 1. It sets out an overall framework for the delivery of some 2,000km of high quality inter‐urban cycling corridors. A Key town identified for inclusion on the proposed Cycle Route between Tralee and Cork is the tourism capital of Ireland, Killarney which will link in with the proposed South Kerry Greenway. As part of the NRA Scoping Study a number of cycling corridors were identified and assessed against agreed criteria, with the aim of: aligning with Fáilte Ireland tourism routes identified in the Strategy for the Development of Irish Cycle Tourism:

o connecting main urban areas; o maximising the number of potential commuter, leisure and tourist users; o maximizing the attractiveness of the routes to users;


o aligning with economic development objectives; while also o minimising interaction with motorised vehicles.

The scoping study states 'The recommended network shown in this Scoping Study outlines corridors and not routes. At this stage of the project it does not indicate the standard of route to be delivered along each corridor or the exact location of the proposed route. Furthermore, it is also important to note that the route corridors are seen as providing a “skeleton” around which development of the NCN should occur. For example, links and loops between and into these major corridors should also be considered in the context of developing an integrated NCN of national extent. In particular there are clear benefits to developments that make use of existing infrastructure that allows the development of off‐road routes, that link into this NCN “skeleton”.'

Figure 8.1.3: National Cycle Network

8.1.5 A Strategy for the development of Irish Cycle Tourism

This policy document referred to in Objective 3 of the National Cycle Policy Framework, 2009‐2020 was published by Fáilte Ireland in 2007. This document outlines the state of cycle tourism in Ireland and the challenges faced. It states:

'Cycle tourism is in decline in Ireland. In 2000 the number of overseas participants in cycling stood at 130,000. By 2004 this number had dropped to 85,000 and by 2005 it had fallen by a further 25,000. While there was a very slight


increase in cycle tourism numbers in 2006, this increase was less than the increase in walking tourism numbers and the satisfaction ratings for the product continued to decline. Satisfaction with the quality of the product is also being eroded with the percentage of very satisfied holiday makers falling from 76% in 2000 to 50% in 2005 and unsatisfied customers rising from 2% to 9% over the same period. Despite the decline, overseas visitors who cycled while in Ireland contributed an estimated 34.5 million Euro to the economy in 2005. While it is difficult to pinpoint the precise causes of the decline, a research project specifically designed to elicit both quantitative and qualitative information on the cycling product was conducted by MORI in 2005. It found that;

o Cycling on Irish roads is not perceived to be safe – cyclists face dangerous bends, fast cars, intimidating HGVs, more traffic and higher speeds;

o There are very few, if any, traffic‐free routes to cater for touring cyclists wanting to leave the cities to discover the countryside or for families who wish to participate in cycling;

o Airlines and ferry companies do not make it easy to carry bikes, there is no evidence of a coherent network, much less one that is linked to a reliable public transport system;

o Compared with other European destinations, the system and facilities in Ireland for the carriage of bikes on trains is poor and cycle parking facilities at many train stations are inadequate;

o The lack of good quality, strategically located, professionally run bicycle and accessory hire facilities is a key constraint.

When we look to Ireland’s competitor destinations we discover evidence of an increasing demand for cycle tourism, with clear indications that this demand is being converted into tangible economic benefit for local and regional economies. There is also a growing recognition that there are motivational links between health and recreational cycling, which also have an impact on the demand for cycling and walking within the tourism sector. Cycle tourism is a growing niche market. It can stand alone or support other markets. It has the potential not only to make an active contribution towards the economic revitalisation of rural areas but also to improve the quality of life for people locally. In response to this challenge the “Strategy for the Development of Irish Cycle Tourism” has been developed to determine how best to renew the popularity of cycling in Ireland, how to encourage visitors to come to cycle in Ireland, and how to ensure that cycle tourism can generate visitor spend in rural areas. This strategy forms a subset of the Fáilte Ireland Tourism Product Development Strategy within the NDP. It focuses on a number of areas within the destination with particularly high potential for holiday cycling, and describes various measures to make them attractive to both domestic and overseas visitors. It also suggests the development of some longer more challenging routes and sketches out the framework for a National Cycle Network.

This initiative is concerned with developing, enhancing and promoting the cycle tourism product as a key component of Ireland’s product portfolio, the development of which will facilitate the growth of a spatially balanced and sustainable tourism economy.

The development of cycle tourism presents a particular opportunity to bring the economic benefits of tourism to the rural areas of Ireland. Cyclists enjoy the outdoor rural environment, they stay longer in an area, and since they cannot carry much in the way of provisions on their bikes, they need to shop locally and regularly thus benefiting local providers.' The document maps the envisaged potential cycle routes to be developed throughout the Country (see figures 2 below).


Figure 8.1.4: Fáilte Ireland‐Existing and Potential Cycling Hubs

8.1.6 Tourism Policy ‘People, Place and Policy – Growing Tourism to 2025’

This policy was published in 2015 and recognises the importance of investing in the visitor experience in order to continue to grow tourism including investment in facilities for visitor activities such as greenways and other outdoor recreational activities. Section 1.3 notes that in supporting investment in the visitor experience including the development of greenways it has seen an improvement in our place by the investmentr in our physical visitor attractions. 8.1.7 County Kerry Tourism Strategy and Action Plan 2016‐2022

The vision of this strategy is ‘to maximise, in a sustainable manner, tourism’s contribution to the quality of life, economy, employment and local community development, paying particular attention to nurturing and protecting the natural, built, cultural and linguistic heritage of the county.


Developing and enhancing Kerry’s tourism infrastructure is a key objective of this strategy. One of the strategic priorities includes the upgrading of visitor faciliies such as trail heads and linking up Greenways, walking and cycling trails. A key action in achieving this priority includes:

o Developing a greenway, in a sustainable manner, from Renard to Glenbeigh. This action is to be investigated further at Municipal District Local Area Plan preparation level.

8.1.8 Fáilte Ireland South West Tourism Development Plan 2008‐2010

In accordance with ‘Fáilte Ireland South West Tourism Development Plan 2008‐2010’, one of its strategic goal is to ‘build on the region’s position as Ireland’s leading tourism destination outside of Dublin, by focusing on innovative developments and marketing while delivering top quality experiences based on the region’s natural and cultural assets’ and will improve the visitor experience by developing a South West Coastal Walking Route and identify new walking routes in the region'. The proposed route links with Fáilte Ireland's Existing and Potential Cycling Hubs connecting regions and places of interest and will provide opportunities for visitors to cycle and promote regional development. The proposed ‘Greenway’ will link the local population centres of Caherciveen and Valentia Island where a ferry link between the mainland at Reenard Point and Valentia Island (Knightstown) exists and has the potential to create a unique ‘Marine Greenway Loop’ .This innovative loop will allow walkers/cyclists the opportunity to travel the Greenway onto Valentia Island and return by boat between the two marinas. The proposed costal cycle route will take in stunning views of Dingle Bay, Valentia Observatory and Valentia Island which are awe‐inspiring and trip attracting in their own right. Considering the geology, paleontology and cultural heritage of the area including the transatlantic cable, the slate quarry and the Scellig Islands this area has ‘strong merit for consideration as a World Heritage Site’ (Irish Examiner, 30th May 2013) 8.1.9 South West Region ‐ Action Plan for Jobs 2015 to 2017

In July 2015 the government launched the South West Region ‐ Action Plan for Jobs 2015 to 2017. This document examines the areas of potential for job creation throughout the South West region and identifies the development of a network of integrated greenways as an objective of the strategy. Action 52 Undertake further work on route options and feasibility studies for potential development of Greenways in the region, in line with national Greenways guidelines, ongoing DECLG, South West Local Authorities, NTO, Fáilte Ireland Action 53 Develop a plan to link the potential to link walking trails, greenways and marine ways developing a Camino type offering for the SW region. 8.1.10 Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas.

In July 2012 the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government established the Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas. The 2014 final report ‘Energising Ireland’s Rural Economy’ focused on a range of measures which are intended to support the economic regeneration of rural communities. The report outlines the challenges facing rural communities throughout the Country and identifies the needs, potential and objectives for rural economic development. The report included a number of recommendations in the tourism sphere. The report cites the development of the Mayo Greenway as an example of how rural areas can be developed through investment in local projects. 8.1.11 Action Plan for Rural Development ‘Realising our Rural Potential’


This plan published in January 2017 highlights the potential of activity tourism to contribute to economic growth in rural areas. It states that “Outdoor adventure tourism is a key growth sector worldwide and has been identified as a priority for Irish tourism in future years. The development and promotion of this sector provides opportunities for growth, in rural areas in particular, by facilitating businesses to leverage the tourism assets in their area in a sustainable way to support recreational activities such as canoeing, cycling, angling and hill walking”. Two of the key objectives of pillar are:

o To ncrease tourist numbers to rural Ireland by 12% by 2019. o Develop and promote Activity Tourism in rural areas through the development of blueways, greenways and

other recreational opportunities.

8.1.12 National Countryside Recreational Strategy (2006)

In 2006 Comhairle na Tuaithe published a National Countryside Recreational Strategy .The Strategy was produced in recognition of the importance of promoting personal health and well being, and the opportunities represented by recreational activities in terms of promoting sustainable rural communities in Ireland. The proposed use of the old railway line ties in with The National Countryside Recreational Strategy (NCRS) where ‘it is an objective to achieve sustainable and responsible recreation in the countryside. To achieve this landowners are encouraged to maintain, upkeep or restore infrastructure already in place to enable unimpeded public use. Of course, this action should ensure that improvements carried out do not damage the natural, cultural or built heritage of the area involved. They are also encouraged to use the former infrastructural facilities such as disused railway lines as trails for walking, cycling etc.’19

8.1.13 National Physical Activity Plan

This plan published in January 2016 has a key target is to increase the number of people taking regular exercise by 1% a year over ten years – that’s around 50,000 people every year or half a million in total – by making exercise a normal part of everyday life and giving people more opportunities to be active. The plan has an aim to Build on the success of Get Ireland Walking by setting up new initiatives like Get Ireland Swimming, Get Ireland Cycling and Get Ireland Running; 8.1.14 National Mitigation Plan

In March 2017 the Drfat National Mitigation Plan was published. Transport is one of the key sectors in terms of tackling Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions. The Plan details a range of existing and new measures that will deliver greatest return in emissions reduction and the measures under consideration for the Transport Sector include promoting modal shift away from private car use towards more sustainable and active means of travel, namely, cycling and walking.

8.1.15 Irish Trails Strategy (2007)

In recognition of the economic, health and quality of life benefits associated with outdoor recreational activities, the National Waymarked Way Advisory Committee (NWWAC), a sub‐committee of the Irish Sports Council, was tasked with preparing an Irish Trails Strategy in 2007.

19 http://www.environ.ie/en/countrysidecouncil/


The vision set out in the resulting Strategy is ‐ “to create, nurture and maintain a world class recreational trail network that is sustainable, integrated, well utilised and highly regarded, that enhances the health, well being and quality of life of all Irish citizens and that attracts visitors from around the world”. The long‐term (ten year) objectives adopted in the Strategy include:

o To position Ireland in the top tier of European countries for availability of quality recreational trails, spread throughout the country;

o To promote and facilitate the highest sustainable level of usage of the recreational trails among Irish people; and o To establish Ireland as a premier international tourism destination for the broad range of outdoor recreational

activities associated with a diverse trail network While the Strategy is national in focus, it aims at supporting and encouraging sustainable trail development at local, community and county level throughout Ireland. The Strategy aims at promoting all forms of trails, however, it is recognised that walking and cycling trails and greenways will be prioritized in the initial stages. 8.1.16 Green Schools Policy and Cycle to Work Scheme ‐ business opportunities in the Area

Caherciveen town has three schools and they are taking part in the Green Schools Programme.

Table 8.1.16 (a): Colaiste na Sceilge

Year Total First years Foreign students included Local students

1999 780

2015/16 517 88 40 477

2016/17 465 80 7 458

458 represents a drop of 322 students from the 780 enrolled in 1999 477 represents a drop of 303 students from the 780 enrolled in 1999 There is a drop of 40% since 1999 in 18 years.

Table 8.1.16 (b): Caherciveen area primary school numbers 2010 ‐2016

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Coars 27 26 27 25 23 23 20

Foilmore 50 48 51 52 57 55 50

Ahatubrid 88 88 88 92 101 90 90

Sc Mhuire Boys 93 86 85 76 74

St. Joseph’s Girls 76 70 72 71 63

Scoil Saidhbhin (amalgamated)

169 156 157 147 137 128 126

Due to the steep decline in cycling (primary schools) since the 1980’s cycling must be encouraged. According to the Department of Transport’s ‘National Cycle Policy Framework (2009)’, since 1986 there has been a decline of 83% in the number of primary level pupils who cycle to school.20 Due to the fall in numbers of children cycling to school it is important to promote active travel from a young age. Promotion of cycling to school would complement the benefits of the Cycle to Work scheme. As such, the ‘Green Schools Travel’ can encourage pupils and parents to walk, cycle, park and stride or car pool instead of using the car on the school run.

20 www.smartertravel.ie / National Cycle Policy Framework (2009), p6


The proposed Greenway will tie in with the town environs of Caherciveen and has the potential to attract up to 686 pupils to use the ‘green route’. FEXCO and ‘The Legal Aid Board’ are both located in Caherciveen and employ approximately 80 and 45 people respectively. Both organisations have embraced the ‘Cycle to Work Scheme’ and they will also be targeted to use the ‘Green way’. While there are no statistics given at local level for impacts on the local economy of the ‘Cycle to Work Scheme’ in terms of job creation, the Irish Bicycle Business Association (IBBA) has stated that ‘the scheme supports and stimulates Ireland’s Cycling economy which is worth approximately €260million annum and has generated 767 jobs as a result of this scheme.’21

According to the Irish Trails Strategy 22 ‘a sustainable Irish recreational trail network can only be achieved if statutory, non‐statutory and local community networks co‐ordinate planning and development activities.’ There needs to be a partnership approach to deliver tourism projects of this scale and it is clear that South Kerry Development Partnership (SKDP) and ACARD (A Caherciveen Area Development Company) have both shown their commitment to this project where they have submitted comprehensive ‘Feasibility Studies’ for the respective routes from Glenbeigh‐Caherciveen and Caherciveen –Reenard Point.

8.2 Planning

8.2.1 National Planning Framework

One of the principal purposes of preparing the NPF is to allow shared national development goals, including improved living standards, quality of life, prosperity, competitiveness and environmental sustainability, to be more broadly considered. Ireland 2040 Plan is a high‐level document that will provide the framework for future development and investment in Ireland. It is the overall Plan from which other, more detailed plans will take their lead, hence the title, National Planning ‘Framework’, including city and county development plans and regional strategies. The National Planning Framework will have statutory backing. The National Planning Framework is the Government’s plan to cater for the extra one million people that will be living in Ireland, the additional two thirds of a million people working in Ireland and the half a million extra homes needed in Ireland by 2040. The Framework focuses on:

o Growing our regions, their cities, towns and villages and rural fabric. o Better outcomes for communities and the environment, through more effective and coordinated planning,

investment and delivery. As a strategic development framework, Ireland 2040 ‐ Our Plan sets the long‐term context for our country’s physical development and associated progress in economic, social and environmental terms and in an island, European and global context. The vision for Ireland in 2040 is:

o For the highest possible quality of life for people and communities, underpinned by high quality, well managed built and natural environments.

o Sustainable self‐reliance based on a strong circular economy and significant progress towards a low carbon, climate‐resilient society while remaining an open, competitive and trading economy.

The relevant National Policy Objectives in support of the proposed development are set out hereunder: National Policy Objective 16 ‐ Target the reversal of rural decline in the core of small towns and villages through sustainable targeted measures that address vacancy and deliver sustainable reuse and regeneration outcomes.

21 http://ibba.ie/?page_id=8

22www.irishtrails.ie / Irish Trails Strategy’(2007) ,The Irish Sports Council, Promoting and developing activity in the Irish Outdoors


National Policy Objective 17 ‐ Enhance, integrate and protect the special physical, social, economic and cultural value of built heritage assets through appropriate and sensitive use now and for future generations. National Policy Objective 18a ‐ Support the proportionate growth of and appropriately designed development in rural towns that will contribute to their regeneration and renewal, including interventions in the public realm, the provision of amenities, the acquisition of sites and the provision of services. National Policy Objective 21 ‐ Enhance the competitiveness of rural areas by supporting innovation in rural economic development and enterprise through the sustainable diversification of the rural economy into new sectors and in particular those with a low or zero carbon output. National Policy Objective 22 ‐ Facilitate the development of a National Greenways/Blueways and Peatways Strategy which prioritises projects on the basis of achieving maximum impact and connectivity at national and regional level. National Policy Objective 27 ‐ Ensure the integration of safe and convenient alternatives to the car into the design of our communities, by prioritising walking and cycling accessibility to both existing and proposed developments, and integrating physical activity facilities for all ages. Empowered Rural Communities – Rural areas play a key role in defining our identity, in driving our economy and our high‐quality environment and must be a major part of our country’s strategic development to 2040. In addition to the natural resource and food sector potential as traditional pillars of the rural economy, improved connectivity, broadband and rural economic development opportunities are emerging which offer the potential to ensure our countryside remains a living and working community. Rural Development – Actions:

o Implementation of the actions outlined in the Action Plan for Rural Development. o Implementation of a targeted smart growth initiative to enable opportunities to secure the regeneration and

re‐purposing of rural towns and villages weakened by the structural changes in rural economies and settlement patterns

o Investment in greenways and blueways as part of a nationally coordinated strategy.

8.2.2 South West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 – 2022

The Regional Planning guidelines were developed on the basis of guidance provided through the National Spatial Strategy and a wide range of plans that exist at individual agency level throughout the region. The task of the guidelines is to provide a broad canvas to steer the sustainable growth and prosperity of the region and its people up to 2020 consistent with the objectives and vision of the National Spatial Strategy. They provides the link from the implementation of spatial policy from national to regional and local level. The objectives of the County development plan must be consistent with the objectives of the Regional Planning Guidelines. The relevant policies and objectives in relation to the proposed development are set out hereunder: Tourism in the South West 3.2.11. Fáilte Ireland South West has outlined its priorities and goals for the region’s tourism around four themes:

o nature‐based activities from walking to adventure; o Cork city as a major urban tourism destination; o maritime heritage & coastal holiday experiences and o rural culture and country pursuits.

3.2.12. The region has a number of valuable natural and cultural assets that support the tourism industry. It also benefits from its reputation for quality food, with global brand names and a range of high quality hotels and restaurants. 3.2.13. It has a wide range of excellent locations and facilities for walking, hill walking, cycling, golf and other activity pursuits.


3.2.14. Marine tourism and leisure activities present a significant opportunity to build the level of visitor product in the region. The South West has a very attractive marine environment with many small ports and harbours around the coastline, supported by attractive towns and villages in the coastal areas. There is potential for the sustainable development of additional marinas, pontoons and other facilities to attract yachting, anglers, and other visitors to prolong their visits to the region. Local authorities in the region should cooperate in the development of a coordinated strategy involving all stakeholders for the development of sustainable quality marine tourism in the south west.

3.2.15. It is important that a coordinated approach is taken to the development of tourism in the region and in particular there is a need to improve public transport access, related facilities and the level of service to tourism locations in a sustainable manner.

3.2.16. Recreation and tourism can cause increased disturbance to habitats and species that are important for biodiversity. A particular threat would be the introduction and spread of invasive species. Tourism and recreation projects, strategies and activities should ensure that the ecological integrity of the region’s natural environment is maintained and where possible enhanced. Planning for tourism developments and associated transport access needs to take account of this, particularly in the case of internationally designated sites of nature conservation importance (Natura 2000).

Regional Planning Guidelines Objective: RES‐03 Tourism It is an objective to protect existing tourism assets in the region and develop additional sustainable facilities for activity holidays, urban and rural tourism. It is an objective to secure an integrated sustainable strategy for the development of the region’s marine and coastal assets where the sustainable development of tourism and other marine activities are promote Rural Economy and Diversification 3.2.24. The traditional mainstays of rural employment have been in decline for some time. Mechanisation and technological advances have contributed significantly to this decline. There is a need for new initiatives which will support rural diversification, innovation and enterprise development:

• Facilitate innovative approaches to identify new products and markets to increase rural employment (in the existing sectors).

• New sustainable tourism initiatives in appropriate locations. Regional Planning Guidelines Objective : RES‐05 Rural Diversification It is an objective to promote rural diversification through building local rural capacity by upskilling and making appropriate provision in development and local plans to foster local entrepreneurial activity and encouraging innovative and sustainable economic activity 5.4.3. A National Cycle Policy Framework has been produced that will address the creation of traffic‐free urban centres to facilitate cycling and investment in a national cycle network that deal with both rural leisure cycling and urban networks with the latter given priority.

5.4.4. There are plans to establish a Walking Framework under the Smarter Travel Plan. This will encourage a culture of urban walking, ensuring that urban walking networks are strengthened by the improvement to the public realm including safe pedestrian routes, serving education and employment areas and minimising areas of traffic conflict for pedestrians, widening and resurfacing footpaths and rationalisation of signage to public buildings. 5.4.5. Proposed walking and cycling routes in the vicinity of nature conservation sites should be located and designed in such a manner so as to avoid undue disturbance/harm to species or habitats of conservation interest. Regional Planning Guidelines Objective:


Regional Transport and Infrastructure Strategy RTS‐03 Cycling and Walking

It is an objective to encourage the development of strategies for walking and cycling that promote the goals and aspirations of Smarter Travel and the National Cycle Policy Framework. Specifically, the region’s local authorities should prepare plans for improvement to the cycling and walking networks in urban areas, linking areas of population growth and employment, in a sustainable manner. In other urban parts of the region outside of the Gateway and Hubs, where intra‐urban bus services are not available, it is an objective to promote the sustainable use of cycling and walking between town centres, employment and residential areas. Development Plans and Local Area Plans should examine the possibility of retro fitting of adequate walking and cycling facilities and planning for all new areas should include the provision of such facilities in a sustainable manner 6.7.5. An important element of community is public open space and recreational facilities. These are beneficial to local communities and also act as an important aspect of the overall visitor experience. Within the South West, there are considerable gaps in the level and quality of these areas and Development Plans should address these gaps in a sustainable manner. Regional Planning Guidelines Objective: Environment and Amenities Strategy REAS‐07 Social and Community Infrastructure

1.7.7. It is an objective to continuously improve the quality of life for residents of and visitors to the region and to create an increased awareness of sense of place.

1.7.8. It is an objective to ensure that social and community infrastructures in terms of housing, educational, public transport, recreational and health facilities are developed in a timely and sustainable manner to cater for increasing population levels. Special care needs to be taken to ensure that adequate levels of essential service provision continue in rural area of the region.

1.7.9. It is an objective to encourage local authorities to protect and enhance public open space and recreational facilities in a sustainable manner and recognise the importance of protection of urban wildlife corridors and sites of nature conservation importance.

8.3 Kerry County Development Plan 2015‐2021

The Planning and Development ( Amendment) Act 2010 amends section 10 of the Principal Act by introducing the requirement of a Core strategy that shall '' show that the development objectives in the Development Plan are consistent, as far as possible, with national and regional development objectives set out in the National Spatial Strategy and Regional Planning Guidelines''. Among the strategic aims of the core strategy are:

o Set out a vision and blueprint for the future sustainable development of the County and maximise its potential in the context of the South West region.

o Support sustainable tourism development in Kerry and strengthen the contribution that tourism makes to the local communities, culture and economy of the County.

o Promote and support the integration of land use and transport and encourage modal shift to greater use of sustainable modes of transport, including public transport, walking and cycling.

o Through the core strategy and the objectives outlined, the County Development Plan sets out a vision for the future development of the County.

The relevant policies and objectives in relation to the proposed development are set out hereunder:


It is an objective of the Council to: T‐5 Promote the sustainable development of tourist related infrastructure such as transport access, appropriate facilities and high‐quality tourist accommodation, in appropriate locations where proposals are in accordance with the provisions of this Plan.

T‐10 Support and facilitate, in conjunction with other bodies and agencies, the sustainable development of Kerry as a world class destination for sports and recreation related tourism

T‐11 Promote and facilitate the sustainable development of outdoor activities, in appropriate locations, such as walking, rambling, cycling and adventure with specialised wellness centres and facilities in association with Tralee IT, Failte Ireland, National Trails Office, Irish Sports Council, Kerry Education and Training Board and other relevant National and County based department and agencies.

T‐20 Facilitate the sustainable provision, at appropriate locations, of a network of quality pathways and associated car parks for walkers and cyclists and horse riders that are attractive and free of vehicle traffic

T‐23 Actively encourage and seek to facilitate appropriate and sustainable development of integrated cycle routes throughout the County in association with other agencies.

T‐26 Co‐operate with the National Trails Office, Fáilte Ireland, National Way Marked Way Advisory Council and other relevant bodies, in order to support the sustainable development, maintenance and enhancement of the trail development throughout the County, both urban and rural, in an environmentally sustainable way

T‐27 Promote and facilitate the sustainable re‐use of existing former railway lines for amenity purposes, such as cycleways, walkways and other recreational activities in order to develop a network of ‘green routes’ throughout the County.

T‐28 Support the sustainable development of a national cycle network and the development of a EuroVelo project, in particular the Atlantic Coast route where it passes through the County

RD‐4 Facilitate the sustainable provision of the necessary Infrastructure at appropriate locations, required to promote sustainable economic and social development of the County.

RD‐8 Support sustainable travel in the County and implement the key goals, targets and actions as contained in Smarter Travel‐ A Sustainable Transport future – A New Transport Policy for Ireland 2009‐2020 and the National Cycle Policy Framework.

RD‐13 Encourage an increase of non‐car based transport within the County.

RD‐14 Promote the sustainable development of walking, cycling, public transport and other sustainable forms of transport such as car sharing and car‐pooling, as an alternative to private car, by facilitating and promoting the development of necessary infrastructure and by promoting initiatives contained in Smarter Travel, A Sustainable Transport Future 2009‐2020.


RD‐28 Promote the sustainable development of walking, cycling, public transport and other sustainable forms of transport as an alternative to private car, by facilitating and promoting the development of necessary infrastructure and by promoting initiatives contained in Smarter Travel, A Sustainable Transport Future 2009‐2020.

RD‐30 Support the sustainable establishment of a network of “Greenways” as outlined in Table 7.4 within the County and adjoining Counties where it can be demonstrated that the development will not have a significant adverse effect on the environment, including the integrity of a Natura 2000 network. (Table 7.4 ‐ from Farranfore to Caherciveen/ Renard Point).

RD‐31 Support the sustainable establishment of a network of interlinked cycle ways and walk ways within the County and the adjoining Counties including: Tralee‐Fenit, Lough Leane Loop, Glenbeigh‐Renard, Great Southern Trail, Ballyseedy‐Blennerville‐Spa and linking them where possible, where it can be demonstrated that the development will not have a significant effect on the environment, including the integrity of the Natura 2000 network.

RD‐33 Protect all existing or historical rail lines and associated facilities from redevelopment for non‐transport related purposes in order to protect their future use as an operational transportation networks or for green cycle or walking routes.

8.4 Cahirciveen Functional Area Local Area Plan 2013‐2019

The Caherciveen Local Area Plan was prepared in accordance with Part II, Section 20 of the Planning & Development Acts 2000 ‐ 2014 and is required to be consistent with the objectives of the Kerry County Development Plan 2015‐2021. The LAP consists of a written statement and plans indicating detailed objectives, including community facilities, amenities and design standards. It sets out the objectives for the future development of the area at a more detailed level that is possible in the County Development Plan. The plan covers both the rural areas and the urban settlements. The relevant policies and objectives in relation to the proposed development are set out hereunder: Caherciveen Local Area Plan: Section 1.6 It is proposed that a green route be developed along the old railway line between Glenbeigh and Caherciveen in accordance with development objectives of the Kerry County Development Plan. Kerry County Council and South Kerry Partnership are seeking to promote the utilisation of the old railway line as a “Greenway route”. Subject to strategic environmental assessment, at project level, this green route could facilitate recreational activities such as walking, cycling and nature observation. This would provide a valuable amenity resource for the area with some spectacular sea and mountain views and would constitute an additional tourist attraction in the Caherciveen area. Obj. Ru‐At‐4: It is an objective of the Council to facilitate the development of the “green route” in a sustainable manner along the route of the dismantled Railway line. This greenway could be used, where appropriate, for recreational activities such as walking, cycling and nature observation

8.5 Killorglin Functional Area Local Area Plan 2010 – 2016

1.10 Amenity It is proposed that a green route be developed along the dismantled railway line between Farranfore Junction and Caherciveen (see Figure 1.7) in accordance with development objective INF8‐38 of the Kerry County Development Plan (2009‐2015). Subject to Habitats Directive Assessment, at project level, this green route could facilitate recreational activities such as walking, cycling and nature observation. This would provide a valuable amenity resource


for the area with some spectacular sea and mountain views and would constitute an additional tourist attraction in the Killorglin area. Ru‐18 Facilitate the development of a ‘green route’, in a sustainable manner, along the dismantled railway line between Farranfore Junction and Caherciveen (see Figure 1.7). This green route could be used, where appropriate, for recreational activities such as walking, cycling and nature observation.

8.6 The Kerry Local Economic and Community Plan

The Kerry Local Economic & Community Plan (LECP) is an integrated plan to guide the development of County Kerry from an Economic, Community, Cultural, Sporting and Recreation perspective from 2016 to 2021. This plan is used to focus the role of Local Government, State Agencies, Community Sector, Local Development Groups and other bodies that are involved in the development of County Kerry. Putting People First: Action Programme for Effective Local Government, states that local government’s ‘role will be refocused, particularly towards economic, social and community development… and that local government will be the main vehicle of governance and public service at local level, leading economic, social and community development’. The Kerry LECP focuses on three aspects to tackling key economic and social concerns for the County: 1. Economic Development and Job Creation 2. Quality of Life 3. Community and Social Inclusion The proposed greenway, as catalyst for the economic regeneration and a contributor to health and wellbeing of the local community, is consistent with key objectives and actions of the Local Economic and Community Plan for the County, as set out below:‐ Economic Development and Job Creation. Objective 1.3.8: Actively promote the sustainable development of tourism in the county through the development and implementation of appropriate plans and strategies. Action 1.3.8.3: Undertake further work on route options and feasibility studies for potential development of Greenways in the county, in line with national Greenways guidelines. Action 1.3.8.4: Further to proper planning and sustainable development support completion of existing greenway development (South Kerry, North Kerry and Fenit Greenways) and investigate the feasibility of linking up the North and South Kerry Greenways. Quality of Life Objective. Objective 2.5.2: Promote an increase in physical activity levels across the county for all. Action 2.5.2.1: Promote and develop free recreation facilities as part of a drive to increase physical activity levels and opportunities in the county for all. This work programme to be carried out in cooperation with the Kerry County Tourism Strategy. Community and Social Inclusion objective. Objective 3.8.8: Improve the liveability of communities through improved local facilities. Action 3.8.8.1: Support the development of safe walking routes and other recreation opportunities in communities involving vulnerable road users in the design, included in which should be better signage and mapping facilities.


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over

nmen

t of I

rela

nd c

opyr

ight

.

Ord

nanc

e Su

rvey

Ire

land

, 201

0.

NG

LE

NB

EIG

HV

ILL

AG

E

CA

HE

RS

IVE

EN

TO

WN

RE

EN

AR

D

ST

AG

EM

OU

NT

AIN

1/10

0,00

0 @

A1

1/20

0,00

0 @

A3

DIS

CLA

IME

R:

The

Info

rma

tio

n p

rese

nte

d o

n t

his

Dra

win

g in

ind

ica

tive

only

and

is s

ub

ject

to full

de

taile

d d

esi

gn.

The

Dra

win

g is

fo

r P

rese

nta

tio

n P

urp

ose

s a

nd

no

t fo

rC

onst

ructio

n.

Sca

ling

and

Dim

ensi

ons

sha

ll b

e a

s th

ose

ind

ica

ted

on

Dra

win

g.

EO

S

EO

S

EO

S

EO

S

EO

S

EO

S

KE

LL

S

Appendix 8.3 Financial Appraisal

Sout

h Ke

rry

Gre

enw

ay

Scen

ario 1

Scen

ario 2

Scen

ario 3

Scen

ario 4

Scen

ario 5

Scen

ario 6

Scen

ario 7

Scen

ario 8

Scen

ario 9

Scen

ario 10

Scen

ario 11

Scen

ario 12

Discount factor

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

8%

8%

8%

5%

5%

5%

8%

8%

8%

Displacemen

t factor (domestic stream

constant)

40%

30%

20%

40%

30%

20%

60%

50%

40%

60%

50%

40%

Displacemen

t stream

(international set in

sheet 3)

BCR as calculated

3.54

3.83

4.12

2.48

2.68

2.89

2.57

2.86

3.15

1.80

2.00

2.20

NPV of Income less Expen

diture

65,427,907

72,863,800

80,299,693

35,579,478

40,488,876

45,398,275

40,543,674

47,979,568

55,415,461

19,150,165

24,059,564

28,968,962

Scen

ario 1

Scen

ario 2

Scen

ario 3

Scen

ario 4

Scen

ario 5

Scen

ario 6

Scen

ario 7

Scen

ario 8

Scen

ario 9

Scen

ario 10

Scen

ario 11

Scen

ario 12

South Kerry Greenway ‐ Scenario 1

Discount rate

0.0500

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Public Sector Discount Rate Q3 2015 (PER

)0.9524

0.9070

0.8638

0.8227

0.7835

0.7462

0.7107

0.6768

0.6446

0.6139

0.5847

0.5568

0.5303

0.5051

0.4810

0.4581

0.4363

0.4155

0.3957

0.3769

0.3589

0.3418

0.3256

0.3101

0.2953

0.2812

0.2678

0.2551

0.2429

0.2314

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

Domestic income

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

tSliding

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

International income

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

NPV Domestic In

come

44,615,359

00

0662,530

1,261,962

1,802,803

2,289,273

2,725,325

2,595,548

2,471,951

2,354,239

2,242,132

2,135,364

2,033,680

1,936,838

1,844,608

1,756,769

1,673,113

1,593,441

1,517,563

1,445,298

1,376,475

1,310,928

1,248,503

1,189,050

1,132,429

1,078,504

1,027,146

978,235

931,652

NPV In

ternational In

come

46,562,263

00

0446,049

920,419

1,416,029

1,926,570

2,446,438

2,475,562

2,496,365

2,509,573

2,515,863

2,396,060

2,281,962

2,173,297

2,069,807

1,971,244

1,877,376

1,787,977

1,702,835

1,621,748

1,544,522

1,470,973

1,400,927

1,334,216

1,270,682

1,210,173

1,152,546

1,097,663

1,045,393

NPV Domestic and In

terntional

91,177,622

00

01,108,579

2,182,381

3,218,831

4,215,843

5,171,763

5,071,110

4,968,315

4,863,812

4,757,995

4,531,424

4,315,642

4,110,135

3,914,414

3,728,013

3,550,489

3,381,418

3,220,398

3,067,046

2,920,996

2,781,901

2,649,430

2,523,266

2,403,111

2,288,677

2,179,692

2,075,897

1,977,045

Expenditure stream

(ad

justed for Shad

ow Price)

Land Cost/CPO

5,221,450

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

1,192,750

298,188

596,375

298,188

Professional Fees‐CPO

1,098,845

274,711

549,422

274,711

Design Fees and Planning

1,277,900

1,277,900

00

Construction

18,018,000

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expenditure total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138

NPV of income less expenditure

65,427,907

BCR

3.5


Discount rate of

0.0500

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9524

0.9070

0.8638

0.8227

0.7835

0.7462

0.7107

0.6768

0.6446

0.6139

0.5847

0.5568

0.5303

0.5051

0.4810

0.4581

0.4363

0.4155

0.3957

0.3769

0.3589

0.3418

0.3256

0.3101

0.2953

0.2812

0.2678

0.2551

0.2429

0.2314

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Domestic income

00

0939,528

1,879,055

2,818,583

3,758,110

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%


00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

NPV Domestic In

come

52,051,252

00

0772,952

1,472,289

2,103,270

2,670,819

3,179,546

3,028,139

2,883,942

2,746,612

2,615,821

2,491,258

2,372,626

2,259,644

2,152,042

2,049,564

1,951,966

1,859,015

1,770,490

1,686,181

1,605,887

1,529,416

1,456,587

1,387,226

1,321,167

1,258,254

1,198,338

1,141,274

1,086,928

NPV In

ternational In

come

46,562,263

00

0446,049

920,419

1,416,029

1,926,570

2,446,438

2,475,562

2,496,365

2,509,573

2,515,863

2,396,060

2,281,962

2,173,297

2,069,807

1,971,244

1,877,376

1,787,977

1,702,835

1,621,748

1,544,522

1,470,973

1,400,927

1,334,216

1,270,682

1,210,173

1,152,546

1,097,663

1,045,393

NPV Domestic and In

terntional

98,613,516

00

01,219,001

2,392,708

3,519,299

4,597,389

5,625,984

5,503,701

5,380,307

5,256,185

5,131,683

4,887,318

4,654,588

4,432,941

4,221,849

4,020,808

3,829,341

3,646,992

3,473,325

3,307,929

3,150,408

3,000,389

2,857,513

2,721,441

2,591,849

2,468,427

2,350,883

2,238,936

2,132,320

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138


72,863,800

BCR

3.8


Discount rate of 7.5%

0.0500

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9524

0.9070

0.8638

0.8227

0.7835

0.7462

0.7107

0.6768

0.6446

0.6139

0.5847

0.5568

0.5303

0.5051

0.4810

0.4581

0.4363

0.4155

0.3957

0.3769

0.3589

0.3418

0.3256

0.3101

0.2953

0.2812

0.2678

0.2551

0.2429

0.2314

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Domestic income

00

01,073,746

2,147,492

3,221,238

4,294,983

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%


107,983,263

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

NPV Domestic In

come

59,487,146

00

0883,373

1,682,616

2,403,737

3,052,364

3,633,767

3,460,731

3,295,934

3,138,985

2,989,509

2,847,152

2,711,573

2,582,451

2,459,477

2,342,359

2,230,818

2,124,588

2,023,418

1,927,064

1,835,299

1,747,904

1,664,671

1,585,401

1,509,905

1,438,005

1,369,529

1,304,313

1,242,203

NPV In

ternational In

come

46,562,263

00

0446,049

920,419

1,416,029

1,926,570

2,446,438

2,475,562

2,496,365

2,509,573

2,515,863

2,396,060

2,281,962

2,173,297

2,069,807

1,971,244

1,877,376

1,787,977

1,702,835

1,621,748

1,544,522

1,470,973

1,400,927

1,334,216

1,270,682

1,210,173

1,152,546

1,097,663

1,045,393

NPV income total

106,049,409

00

01,329,422

2,603,035

3,819,766

4,978,934

6,080,205

5,936,293

5,792,299

5,648,558

5,505,372

5,243,212

4,993,535

4,755,747

4,529,283

4,313,603

4,108,193

3,912,565

3,726,253

3,548,812

3,379,821

3,218,877

3,065,597

2,919,616

2,780,587

2,648,178

2,522,074

2,401,976

2,287,596

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

-40,

000,

000

-20,

000,

0000

20,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

80,0

00,0

00

100,

000,

000

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

NPV

Year

Scen

ario

Env

elop

e

Max

Min

3.54

3.83

4.12

2.48

2.68

2.89

2.57

2.86

3.15

1.80

2.00

2.20

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

BCR

Scen

ario

BCR

and

Dis

coun

t Ra

te a

nd D

ispl

acem

ent

5% S1, 2, 3

8% S4, 5 ,6

5% S7, 8, 9

8% S10, 11, 12

160

2.01

.02

161

027

BCR

1 (o

f 6)

Sout

h Ke

rry

Gre

enw

ay

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138


80,299,693

BCR

4.1


Discount rate

0.0800

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9259

0.8573

0.7938

0.7350

0.6806

0.6302

0.5835

0.5403

0.5002

0.4632

0.4289

0.3971

0.3677

0.3405

0.3152

0.2919

0.2703

0.2502

0.2317

0.2145

0.1987

0.1839

0.1703

0.1577

0.1460

0.1352

0.1252

0.1159

0.1073

0.0994

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

Domestic income

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%


00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

NPV Domestic In

come

29,456,391

00

0591,926

1,096,160

1,522,445

1,879,561

2,175,418

2,014,276

1,865,070

1,726,917

1,598,997

1,480,553

1,370,882

1,269,336

1,175,311

1,088,251

1,007,639

932,999

863,888

799,897

740,645

685,782

634,984

587,948

544,396

504,071

466,732

432,159

400,147

NPV In

ternational In

come

30,183,262

00

0398,515

799,490

1,195,819

1,581,771

1,952,803

1,921,161

1,883,491

1,840,860

1,794,211

1,661,306

1,538,247

1,424,302

1,318,799

1,221,110

1,130,657

1,046,905

969,356

897,552

831,067

769,506

712,506

659,728

610,859

565,610

523,713

484,919

449,000

NPV income total

59,639,653

00

0990,442

1,895,650

2,718,263

3,461,332

4,128,221

3,935,437

3,748,561

3,567,777

3,393,208

3,141,859

2,909,129

2,693,638

2,494,109

2,309,360

2,138,297

1,979,904

1,833,245

1,697,449

1,571,712

1,455,289

1,347,490

1,247,676

1,155,255

1,069,681

990,445

917,079

849,147

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938


35,579,478

BCR

2.5


Discount rate

0.0800

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9259

0.8573

0.7938

0.7350

0.6806

0.6302

0.5835

0.5403

0.5002

0.4632

0.4289

0.3971

0.3677

0.3405

0.3152

0.2919

0.2703

0.2502

0.2317

0.2145

0.1987

0.1839

0.1703

0.1577

0.1460

0.1352

0.1252

0.1159

0.1073

0.0994

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Domestic income

00

0939,528

1,879,055

2,818,583

3,758,110

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%


00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

NPV Domestic In

come

34,365,790

00

0690,581

1,278,853

1,776,185

2,192,821

2,537,988

2,349,989

2,175,915

2,014,736

1,865,497

1,727,312

1,599,363

1,480,891

1,371,196

1,269,626

1,175,579

1,088,499

1,007,870

933,213

864,086

800,080

740,814

685,939

635,129

588,082

544,521

504,186

466,839

NPV In

ternational In

come

30,183,262

00

0398,515

799,490

1,195,819

1,581,771

1,952,803

1,921,161

1,883,491

1,840,860

1,794,211

1,661,306

1,538,247

1,424,302

1,318,799

1,221,110

1,130,657

1,046,905

969,356

897,552

831,067

769,506

712,506

659,728

610,859

565,610

523,713

484,919

449,000

NPV income total

64,549,052

00

01,089,096

2,078,344

2,972,004

3,774,592

4,490,791

4,271,149

4,059,406

3,855,597

3,659,708

3,388,618

3,137,609

2,905,194

2,689,994

2,490,735

2,306,237

2,135,404

1,977,226

1,830,765

1,695,153

1,569,586

1,453,320

1,345,667

1,245,988

1,153,692

1,068,234

989,105

915,838

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938


40,488,876

BCR

2.7


Discount rate

0.0800

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9259

0.8573

0.7938

0.7350

0.6806

0.6302

0.5835

0.5403

0.5002

0.4632

0.4289

0.3971

0.3677

0.3405

0.3152

0.2919

0.2703

0.2502

0.2317

0.2145

0.1987

0.1839

0.1703

0.1577

0.1460

0.1352

0.1252

0.1159

0.1073

0.0994

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

20%

020%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Domestic income

00

01,073,746

2,147,492

3,221,238

4,294,983

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%


00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

NPV Domestic In

come

39,275,189

00

0789,235

1,461,547

2,029,926

2,506,082

2,900,557

2,685,701

2,486,760

2,302,556

2,131,996

1,974,071

1,827,843

1,692,447

1,567,081

1,451,001

1,343,519

1,243,999

1,151,851

1,066,529

987,527

914,377

846,645

783,931

725,862

672,094

622,309

576,212

533,530

NPV In

ternational In

come

30,183,262

00

0398,515

799,490

1,195,819

1,581,771

1,952,803

1,921,161

1,883,491

1,840,860

1,794,211

1,661,306

1,538,247

1,424,302

1,318,799

1,221,110

1,130,657

1,046,905

969,356

897,552

831,067

769,506

712,506

659,728

610,859

565,610

523,713

484,919

449,000

NPV income total

69,458,451

00

01,187,750

2,261,037

3,225,745

4,087,852

4,853,361

4,606,862

4,370,251

4,143,416

3,926,207

3,635,377

3,366,090

3,116,750

2,885,879

2,672,111

2,474,176

2,290,904

2,121,208

1,964,081

1,818,594

1,683,883

1,559,151

1,443,658

1,336,721

1,237,704

1,146,022

1,061,132

982,530

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938


45,398,275

BCR

2.9

160

2.01

.02

161

027

BCR

2 (o

f 6)

Sout

h Ke

rry

Gre

enw

ay


Discount rate

0.0500

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9524

0.9070

0.8638

0.8227

0.7835

0.7462

0.7107

0.6768

0.6446

0.6139

0.5847

0.5568

0.5303

0.5051

0.4810

0.4581

0.4363

0.4155

0.3957

0.3769

0.3589

0.3418

0.3256

0.3101

0.2953

0.2812

0.2678

0.2551

0.2429

0.2314

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

Domestic income

00

0536,873

1,073,746

1,610,619

2,147,492

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%


00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

NPV Domestic In

come

29,743,573

00

0441,687

841,308

1,201,869

1,526,182

1,816,884

1,730,365

1,647,967

1,569,492

1,494,755

1,423,576

1,355,787

1,291,225

1,229,738

1,171,179

1,115,409

1,062,294

1,011,709

963,532

917,650

873,952

832,335

792,700

754,953

719,003

684,764

652,157

621,101

NPV In

ternational In

come

36,549,818

00

0297,366

637,213

1,011,449

1,412,818

1,834,828

1,893,077

1,941,617

1,981,242

2,012,690

1,916,848

1,825,569

1,738,638

1,655,845

1,576,995

1,501,900

1,430,381

1,362,268

1,297,398

1,235,617

1,176,778

1,120,741

1,067,373

1,016,545

968,138

922,037

878,130

836,314

NPV income total

66,293,390

00

0739,053

1,478,521

2,213,318

2,939,000

3,651,712

3,623,442

3,589,584

3,550,734

3,507,445

3,340,424

3,181,356

3,029,863

2,885,584

2,748,175

2,617,309

2,492,676

2,373,977

2,260,930

2,153,267

2,050,730

1,953,077

1,860,073

1,771,498

1,687,141

1,606,801

1,530,287

1,457,416

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138


40,543,674

BCR

2.6


Discount rate

0.0500

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9524

0.9070

0.8638

0.8227

0.7835

0.7462

0.7107

0.6768

0.6446

0.6139

0.5847

0.5568

0.5303

0.5051

0.4810

0.4581

0.4363

0.4155

0.3957

0.3769

0.3589

0.3418

0.3256

0.3101

0.2953

0.2812

0.2678

0.2551

0.2429

0.2314

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

Domestic income

00

0671,091

1,342,182

2,013,273

2,684,365

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%


00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

NPV Domestic In

come

37,179,466

00

0552,108

1,051,635

1,502,336

1,907,728

2,271,105

2,162,957

2,059,959

1,961,865

1,868,443

1,779,470

1,694,733

1,614,032

1,537,173

1,463,974

1,394,261

1,327,868

1,264,636

1,204,415

1,147,062

1,092,440

1,040,419

990,875

943,691

898,753

855,955

815,196

776,377

NPV In

ternational In

come

36,549,818

00

0297,366

637,213

1,011,449

1,412,818

1,834,828

1,893,077

1,941,617

1,981,242

2,012,690

1,916,848

1,825,569

1,738,638

1,655,845

1,576,995

1,501,900

1,430,381

1,362,268

1,297,398

1,235,617

1,176,778

1,120,741

1,067,373

1,016,545

968,138

922,037

878,130

836,314

NPV income total

73,729,284

00

0849,474

1,688,848

2,513,785

3,320,546

4,105,933

4,056,033

4,001,576

3,943,107

3,881,134

3,696,318

3,520,303

3,352,669

3,193,018

3,040,970

2,896,162

2,758,249

2,626,904

2,501,813

2,382,679

2,269,218

2,161,160

2,058,248

1,960,236

1,866,892

1,777,992

1,693,326

1,612,691

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138


47,979,568

BCR

2.9


Discount rate

0.0500

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9524

0.9070

0.8638

0.8227

0.7835

0.7462

0.7107

0.6768

0.6446

0.6139

0.5847

0.5568

0.5303

0.5051

0.4810

0.4581

0.4363

0.4155

0.3957

0.3769

0.3589

0.3418

0.3256

0.3101

0.2953

0.2812

0.2678

0.2551

0.2429

0.2314

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

Domestic income

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%


00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

NPV Domestic In

come

44,615,359

00

0662,530

1,261,962

1,802,803

2,289,273

2,725,325

2,595,548

2,471,951

2,354,239

2,242,132

2,135,364

2,033,680

1,936,838

1,844,608

1,756,769

1,673,113

1,593,441

1,517,563

1,445,298

1,376,475

1,310,928

1,248,503

1,189,050

1,132,429

1,078,504

1,027,146

978,235

931,652

NPV In

ternational In

come

36,549,818

00

0297,366

637,213

1,011,449

1,412,818

1,834,828

1,893,077

1,941,617

1,981,242

2,012,690

1,916,848

1,825,569

1,738,638

1,655,845

1,576,995

1,501,900

1,430,381

1,362,268

1,297,398

1,235,617

1,176,778

1,120,741

1,067,373

1,016,545

968,138

922,037

878,130

836,314

NPV income total

81,165,177

00

0959,896

1,899,175

2,814,252

3,702,091

4,560,154

4,488,625

4,413,568

4,335,481

4,254,822

4,052,212

3,859,249

3,675,475

3,500,453

3,333,765

3,175,014

3,023,823

2,879,831

2,742,696

2,612,092

2,487,706

2,369,244

2,256,423

2,148,974

2,046,642

1,949,183

1,856,365

1,767,967

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138


55,415,461

BCR

3.2


Discount rate

0.0800

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9259

0.8573

0.7938

0.7350

0.6806

0.6302

0.5835

0.5403

0.5002

0.4632

0.4289

0.3971

0.3677

0.3405

0.3152

0.2919

0.2703

0.2502

0.2317

0.2145

0.1987

0.1839

0.1703

0.1577

0.1460

0.1352

0.1252

0.1159

0.1073

0.0994

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

160

2.01

.02

161

027

BCR

3 (o

f 6)

Sout

h Ke

rry

Gre

enw

ay

Displacemen

t constant

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

Domestic income

00

0536,873

1,073,746

1,610,619

2,147,492

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%


00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

NPV Domestic In

come

19,637,594

00

0394,618

730,773

1,014,963

1,253,041

1,450,279

1,342,851

1,243,380

1,151,278

1,065,998

987,035

913,922

846,224

783,540

725,500

671,760

622,000

575,926

533,264

493,763

457,188

423,323

391,965

362,931

336,047

311,155

288,106

266,765

NPV In

ternational In

come

23,572,747

00

0265,677

553,493

854,156

1,159,965

1,464,602

1,469,123

1,464,937

1,453,311

1,435,369

1,329,045

1,230,597

1,139,442

1,055,039

976,888

904,526

837,524

775,485

718,042

664,853

615,605

570,005

527,782

488,687

452,488

418,970

387,936

359,200

NPV income total

43,210,341

00

0660,294

1,284,267

1,869,119

2,413,006

2,914,881

2,811,973

2,708,317

2,604,589

2,501,367

2,316,080

2,144,519

1,985,666

1,838,579

1,702,388

1,576,285

1,459,524

1,351,411

1,251,306

1,158,617

1,072,793

993,327

919,747

851,618

788,535

730,125

676,042

625,965

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938


19,150,165

BCR

1.8


Discount rate

0.0800

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9259

0.8573

0.7938

0.7350

0.6806

0.6302

0.5835

0.5403

0.5002

0.4632

0.4289

0.3971

0.3677

0.3405

0.3152

0.2919

0.2703

0.2502

0.2317

0.2145

0.1987

0.1839

0.1703

0.1577

0.1460

0.1352

0.1252

0.1159

0.1073

0.0994

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

Domestic income

00

0671,091

1,342,182

2,013,273

2,684,365

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%


00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

NPV Domestic In

come

24,546,993

00

0493,272

913,467

1,268,704

1,566,301

1,812,848

1,678,563

1,554,225

1,439,097

1,332,498

1,233,794

1,142,402

1,057,780

979,426

906,876

839,700

777,500

719,907

666,581

617,204

571,485

529,153

489,957

453,664

420,059

388,943

360,133

333,456

NPV In

ternational In

come

23,572,747

00

0265,677

553,493

854,156

1,159,965

1,464,602

1,469,123

1,464,937

1,453,311

1,435,369

1,329,045

1,230,597

1,139,442

1,055,039

976,888

904,526

837,524

775,485

718,042

664,853

615,605

570,005

527,782

488,687

452,488

418,970

387,936

359,200

NPV income total

48,119,739

00

0758,949

1,466,960

2,122,860

2,726,266

3,277,451

3,147,686

3,019,163

2,892,408

2,767,866

2,562,839

2,372,999

2,197,222

2,034,464

1,883,763

1,744,225

1,615,023

1,495,392

1,384,622

1,282,058

1,187,090

1,099,158

1,017,739

942,351

872,547

807,914

748,068

692,656

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938


24,059,564

BCR

2.0


Discount rate

0.0800

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30


)0.9259

0.8573

0.7938

0.7350

0.6806

0.6302

0.5835

0.5403

0.5002

0.4632

0.4289

0.3971

0.3677

0.3405

0.3152

0.2919

0.2703

0.2502

0.2317

0.2145

0.1987

0.1839

0.1703

0.1577

0.1460

0.1352

0.1252

0.1159

0.1073

0.0994

Income stream

(domestic)

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

Displacemen

t constant

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

Domestic income

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

Income stream

(international)

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Displacemen

t at

Sliding

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%


00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

NPV Domestic In

come

29,456,391

00

0591,926

1,096,160

1,522,445

1,879,561

2,175,418

2,014,276

1,865,070

1,726,917

1,598,997

1,480,553

1,370,882

1,269,336

1,175,311

1,088,251

1,007,639

932,999

863,888

799,897

740,645

685,782

634,984

587,948

544,396

504,071

466,732

432,159

400,147

NPV In

ternational In

come

23,572,747

00

0265,677

553,493

854,156

1,159,965

1,464,602

1,469,123

1,464,937

1,453,311

1,435,369

1,329,045

1,230,597

1,139,442

1,055,039

976,888

904,526

837,524

775,485

718,042

664,853

615,605

570,005

527,782

488,687

452,488

418,970

387,936

359,200

NPV income total

53,029,138

00

0857,603

1,649,653

2,376,601

3,039,526

3,640,020

3,483,399

3,330,008

3,180,228

3,034,366

2,809,598

2,601,480

2,408,777

2,230,349

2,065,138

1,912,165

1,770,523

1,639,373

1,517,938

1,405,499

1,301,388

1,204,988

1,115,730

1,033,083

956,559

885,702

820,095

759,347

Expenditure stream

Land Cost/CPO

1,305,363

2,610,725

1,305,363

Accommodation W

orks

298,188

596,375

298,188


274,711

549,422

274,711


1,277,900

00

Construction

5,945,940

5,945,940

6,126,120

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

Marketing

100,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

25,000

Maintenance

15,000

30,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

75,000

9,102,101

9,717,462

8,034,381

175,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938


28,968,962

BCR

2.2

160

2.01

.02

161

027

BCR

4 (o

f 6)


Discount rate

0.050

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Displacemen

t constant

40%

NPV Domestic and Interntional

91,177,622

00

01,108,579

2,182,381

3,218,831

4,215,843

5,171,763

5,071,110

4,968,315

4,863,812

4,757,995

4,531,424

4,315,642

4,110,135

3,914,414

3,728,013

3,550,489

3,381,418

3,220,398

3,067,046

2,920,996

2,781,901

2,649,430

2,523,266

2,403,111

2,288,677

2,179,692

2,075,897

1,977,045

Cumulative income

00

01,108,579

3,290,960

6,509,791

10,725,634

15,897,397

20,968,507

25,936,822

30,800,634

35,558,629

40,090,052

44,405,694

48,515,829

52,430,243

56,158,256

59,708,745

63,090,163

66,310,561

69,377,607

72,298,603

75,080,504

77,729,934

80,253,200

82,656,311

84,944,988

87,124,680

89,200,577

91,177,622

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,668,668

17,482,692

24,423,093

24,567,066

24,645,419

24,720,040

24,791,108

24,858,792

24,923,253

24,984,644

25,043,112

25,098,796

25,151,828

25,202,335

25,250,437

25,296,248

25,339,877

25,381,430

25,421,003

25,458,692

25,494,586

25,528,771

25,561,328

25,592,335

25,621,865

25,649,989

25,676,774

25,702,284

25,726,578

25,749,716

Difference, PL

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,458,487

‐21,354,459

‐18,210,249

‐14,065,474

‐8,961,395

‐3,954,746

952,178

5,757,522

10,459,833

14,938,224

19,203,359

23,265,392

27,133,995

30,818,379

34,327,316

37,669,160

40,851,870

43,883,021

46,769,832

49,519,176

52,137,599

54,631,335

57,006,322

59,268,214

61,422,396

63,473,999

65,427,907


Discount rate of

0.050

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Displacemen

t constant

30%

NPV Domestic and Interntional

98,613,516

00

01,219,001

2,392,708

3,519,299

4,597,389

5,625,984

5,503,701

5,380,307

5,256,185

5,131,683

4,887,318

4,654,588

4,432,941

4,221,849

4,020,808

3,829,341

3,646,992

3,473,325

3,307,929

3,150,408

3,000,389

2,857,513

2,721,441

2,591,849

2,468,427

2,350,883

2,238,936

2,132,320

Cumulative income

00

01,219,001

3,611,708

7,131,007

11,728,395

17,354,379

22,858,080

28,238,388

33,494,572

38,626,256

43,513,573

48,168,162

52,601,103

56,822,951

60,843,760

64,673,101

68,320,093

71,793,418

75,101,347

78,251,755

81,252,144

84,109,658

86,831,099

89,422,948

91,891,375

94,242,259

96,481,195

98,613,516

NPV expen

diture total

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,668,668

17,482,692

24,423,093

24,567,066

24,645,419

24,720,040

24,791,108

24,858,792

24,923,253

24,984,644

25,043,112

25,098,796

25,151,828

25,202,335

25,250,437

25,296,248

25,339,877

25,381,430

25,421,003

25,458,692

25,494,586

25,528,771

25,561,328

25,592,335

25,621,865

25,649,989

25,676,774

25,702,284

25,726,578

25,749,716

Difference, PL

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,348,065

‐21,033,710

‐17,589,033

‐13,062,713

‐7,504,413

‐2,065,173

3,253,743

8,451,460

13,527,460

18,361,745

22,965,827

27,350,666

31,526,704

35,503,882

39,291,671

42,899,090

46,334,726

49,606,761

52,722,984

55,690,816

58,517,323

61,209,234

63,772,959

66,214,601

68,539,975

70,754,617

72,863,800


Discount rate of

0.050

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Displacemen

t constant

20%

NPV income total

106,049,409

00

01,329,422

2,603,035

3,819,766

4,978,934

6,080,205

5,936,293

5,792,299

5,648,558

5,505,372

5,243,212

4,993,535

4,755,747

4,529,283

4,313,603

4,108,193

3,912,565

3,726,253

3,548,812

3,379,821

3,218,877

3,065,597

2,919,616

2,780,587

2,648,178

2,522,074

2,401,976

2,287,596

Cumulative income

00

01,329,422

3,932,457

7,752,223

12,731,157

18,811,362

24,747,654

30,539,953

36,188,511

41,693,883

46,937,095

51,930,629

56,686,377

61,215,660

65,529,263

69,637,457

73,550,022

77,276,274

80,825,086

84,204,907

87,423,784

90,489,381

93,408,998

96,189,585

98,837,763

101,359,837

103,761,813

106,049,409

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,668,668

17,482,692

24,423,093

24,567,066

24,645,419

24,720,040

24,791,108

24,858,792

24,923,253

24,984,644

25,043,112

25,098,796

25,151,828

25,202,335

25,250,437

25,296,248

25,339,877

25,381,430

25,421,003

25,458,692

25,494,586

25,528,771

25,561,328

25,592,335

25,621,865

25,649,989

25,676,774

25,702,284

25,726,578

25,749,716

Difference, PL

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,237,644

‐20,712,962

‐16,967,817

‐12,059,951

‐6,047,431

‐175,599

5,555,309

11,145,399

16,595,087

21,785,266

26,728,294

31,435,940

35,919,412

40,189,386

44,256,027

48,129,019

51,817,582

55,330,500

58,676,136

61,862,456

64,897,046

67,787,133

70,539,595

73,160,989

75,657,554

78,035,235

80,299,693


Discount rate

0.080

Year >>

12

34

56

78

910

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Displacemen

t constant

40%

NPV income total

59,639,653

00

0990,442

1,895,650

2,718,263

3,461,332

4,128,221

3,935,437

3,748,561

3,567,777

3,393,208

3,141,859

2,909,129

2,693,638

2,494,109

2,309,360

2,138,297

1,979,904

1,833,245

1,697,449

1,571,712

1,455,289

1,347,490

1,247,676

1,155,255

1,069,681

990,445

917,079

849,147

Cumulative income

00

0990,442

2,886,092

5,604,355

9,065,687

13,193,908

17,129,344

20,877,906

24,445,683

27,838,891

30,980,750

33,889,879

36,583,517

39,077,626

41,386,987

43,525,283

45,505,187

47,338,432

49,035,881

50,607,593

52,062,882

53,410,371

54,658,047

55,813,302

56,882,983

57,873,428

58,790,506

59,639,653

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,427,871

16,759,029

23,136,980

23,265,610

23,333,668

23,396,685

23,455,034

23,509,061

23,559,086

23,605,405

23,648,294

23,688,005

23,724,775

23,758,821

23,790,345

23,819,534

23,846,561

23,871,586

23,894,757

23,916,212

23,936,078

23,954,472

23,971,503

23,987,273

24,001,875

24,015,395

24,027,914

24,039,505

24,050,238

24,060,176

Difference, PL

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,275,169

‐20,447,577

‐17,792,330

‐14,389,348

‐10,315,153

‐6,429,742

‐2,727,500

797,389

4,150,886

7,255,975

10,131,058

12,793,172

15,258,092

17,540,425

19,653,697

21,610,430

23,422,220

25,099,803

26,653,121

28,091,378

29,423,098

30,656,172

31,797,907

32,855,069

33,833,922

34,740,269

35,579,478


Discount rate

0.080

Displacemen

t constant

30%

NPV income total

64,549,052

00

01,089,096

2,078,344

2,972,004

3,774,592

4,490,791

4,271,149

4,059,406

3,855,597

3,659,708

3,388,618

3,137,609

2,905,194

2,689,994

2,490,735

2,306,237

2,135,404

1,977,226

1,830,765

1,695,153

1,569,586

1,453,320

1,345,667

1,245,988

1,153,692

1,068,234

989,105

915,838

Cumulative income

00

01,089,096

3,167,439

6,139,443

9,914,035

14,404,826

18,675,975

22,735,382

26,590,978

30,250,686

33,639,304

36,776,913

39,682,107

42,372,102

44,862,837

47,169,074

49,304,478

51,281,704

53,112,469

54,807,621

56,377,207

57,830,528

59,176,194

60,422,182

61,575,875

62,644,108

63,633,214

64,549,052

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,427,871

16,759,029

23,136,980

23,265,610

23,333,668

23,396,685

23,455,034

23,509,061

23,559,086

23,605,405

23,648,294

23,688,005

23,724,775

23,758,821

23,790,345

23,819,534

23,846,561

23,871,586

23,894,757

23,916,212

23,936,078

23,954,472

23,971,503

23,987,273

24,001,875

24,015,395

24,027,914

24,039,505

24,050,238

24,060,176

Difference, PL

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,176,514

‐20,166,229

‐17,257,242

‐13,540,999

‐9,104,235

‐4,883,111

‐870,024

2,942,685

6,562,681

9,914,529

13,018,092

15,891,762

18,552,567

21,016,276

23,297,487

25,409,720

27,365,492

29,176,391

30,853,150

32,405,704

33,843,254

35,174,319

36,406,787

37,547,961

38,604,603

39,582,976

40,488,876


Discount rate

0.080

Displacemen

t constant

20%

NPV income total

69,458,451

00

01,187,750

2,261,037

3,225,745

4,087,852

4,853,361

4,606,862

4,370,251

4,143,416

3,926,207

3,635,377

3,366,090

3,116,750

2,885,879

2,672,111

2,474,176

2,290,904

2,121,208

1,964,081

1,818,594

1,683,883

1,559,151

1,443,658

1,336,721

1,237,704

1,146,022

1,061,132

982,530

Cumulative income

00

01,187,750

3,448,787

6,674,532

10,762,384

15,615,745

20,222,606

24,592,858

28,736,274

32,662,481

36,297,858

39,663,948

42,780,697

45,666,577

48,338,687

50,812,864

53,103,768

55,224,976

57,189,057

59,007,650

60,691,533

62,250,684

63,694,342

65,031,063

66,268,767

67,414,789

68,475,921

69,458,451

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,427,871

16,759,029

23,136,980

23,265,610

23,333,668

23,396,685

23,455,034

23,509,061

23,559,086

23,605,405

23,648,294

23,688,005

23,724,775

23,758,821

23,790,345

23,819,534

23,846,561

23,871,586

23,894,757

23,916,212

23,936,078

23,954,472

23,971,503

23,987,273

24,001,875

24,015,395

24,027,914

24,039,505

24,050,238

24,060,176

Difference, PL

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,077,860

‐19,884,881

‐16,722,153

‐12,692,650

‐7,893,317

‐3,336,480

987,452

5,087,980

8,974,476

12,573,083

15,905,127

18,990,352

21,847,043

24,492,126

26,941,278

29,209,011

31,308,763

33,252,979

35,053,178

36,720,030

38,263,411

39,692,467

41,015,667

42,240,853

43,375,284

44,425,683

45,398,275


Discount rate

0.05

Displacemen

t constant

0.60

NPV income total

066,293,390

00

0739,053

1,478,521

2,213,318

2,939,000

3,651,712

3,623,442

3,589,584

3,550,734

3,507,445

3,340,424

3,181,356

3,029,863

2,885,584

2,748,175

2,617,309

2,492,676

2,373,977

2,260,930

2,153,267

2,050,730

1,953,077

1,860,073

1,771,498

1,687,141

1,606,801

1,530,287

1,457,416

Cumulative income

00

0739,053

2,217,574

4,430,891

7,369,891

11,021,603

14,645,045

18,234,629

21,785,363

25,292,808

28,633,232

31,814,588

34,844,451

37,730,034

40,478,209

43,095,519

45,588,194

47,962,171

50,223,101

52,376,368

54,427,099

56,380,175

58,240,248

60,011,746

61,698,887

63,305,688

64,835,975

66,293,390

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,668,668

17,482,692

24,423,093

24,567,066

24,645,419

24,720,040

24,791,108

24,858,792

24,923,253

24,984,644

25,043,112

25,098,796

25,151,828

25,202,335

25,250,437

25,296,248

25,339,877

25,381,430

25,421,003

25,458,692

25,494,586

25,528,771

25,561,328

25,592,335

25,621,865

25,649,989

25,676,774

25,702,284

25,726,578

25,749,716

Difference, PL

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,828,013

‐22,427,845

‐20,289,149

‐17,421,217

‐13,837,189

‐10,278,208

‐6,750,015

‐3,257,749

194,012

3,481,404

6,612,253

9,594,014

12,433,787

15,138,332

17,714,089

20,167,191

22,503,479

24,728,515

26,847,597

28,865,770

30,787,840

32,618,383

34,361,757

36,022,113

37,603,404

39,109,396

40,543,674


Discount rate

0.05

Displacemen

t constant

0.50

NPV income total

73,729,284

00

0849,474

1,688,848

2,513,785

3,320,546

4,105,933

4,056,033

4,001,576

3,943,107

3,881,134

3,696,318

3,520,303

3,352,669

3,193,018

3,040,970

2,896,162

2,758,249

2,626,904

2,501,813

2,382,679

2,269,218

2,161,160

2,058,248

1,960,236

1,866,892

1,777,992

1,693,326

1,612,691

Cumulative income

00

0849,474

2,538,322

5,052,107

8,372,652

12,478,585

16,534,619

20,536,194

24,479,302

28,360,435

32,056,753

35,577,056

38,929,725

42,122,743

45,163,713

48,059,874

50,818,123

53,445,027

55,946,841

58,329,520

60,598,738

62,759,899

64,818,147

66,778,383

68,645,275

70,423,267

72,116,592

73,729,284

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138

Cumulative expen

diture

8,668,668

17,482,692

24,423,093

24,567,066

24,645,419

24,720,040

24,791,108

24,858,792

24,923,253

24,984,644

25,043,112

25,098,796

25,151,828

25,202,335

25,250,437

25,296,248

25,339,877

25,381,430

25,421,003

25,458,692

25,494,586

25,528,771

25,561,328

25,592,335

25,621,865

25,649,989

25,676,774

25,702,284

25,726,578

25,749,716

Difference, PL

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,717,592

‐22,107,096

‐19,667,933

‐16,418,456

‐12,380,207

‐8,388,634

‐4,448,450

‐563,810

3,261,639

6,904,925

10,374,721

13,679,288

16,826,495

19,823,835

22,678,445

25,397,121

27,986,336

30,452,255

32,800,749

35,037,410

37,167,564

39,196,282

41,128,394

42,968,500

44,720,983

46,390,014

47,979,568


Discount rate

0.05

Displacemen

t constant

0.40

NPV income total

81,165,177

00

0959,896

1,899,175

2,814,252

3,702,091

4,560,154

4,488,625

4,413,568

4,335,481

4,254,822

4,052,212

3,859,249

3,675,475

3,500,453

3,333,765

3,175,014

3,023,823

2,879,831

2,742,696

2,612,092

2,487,706

2,369,244

2,256,423

2,148,974

2,046,642

1,949,183

1,856,365

1,767,967

Cumulative income

00

0959,896

2,859,071

5,673,323

9,375,414

13,935,567

18,424,192

22,837,760

27,173,240

31,428,063

35,480,274

39,339,523

43,014,999

46,515,452

49,849,216

53,024,230

56,048,053

58,927,884

61,670,580

64,282,672

66,770,378

69,139,623

71,396,046

73,545,020

75,591,662

77,540,845

79,397,210

81,165,177

NPV expen

diture total

25,749,716

8,668,668

8,814,025

6,940,400

143,973

78,353

74,622

71,068

67,684

64,461

61,391

58,468

55,684

53,032

50,507

48,102

45,811

43,630

41,552

39,573

37,689

35,894

34,185

32,557

31,007

29,530

28,124

26,785

25,509

24,295

23,138

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,668,668

17,482,692

24,423,093

24,567,066

24,645,419

24,720,040

24,791,108

24,858,792

24,923,253

24,984,644

25,043,112

25,098,796

25,151,828

25,202,335

25,250,437

25,296,248

25,339,877

25,381,430

25,421,003

25,458,692

25,494,586

25,528,771

25,561,328

25,592,335

25,621,865

25,649,989

25,676,774

25,702,284

25,726,578

25,749,716

Difference, PL

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,607,170

‐21,786,348

‐19,046,717

‐15,415,694

‐10,923,225

‐6,499,061

‐2,146,885

2,130,128

6,329,267

10,328,446

14,137,188

17,764,562

21,219,204

24,509,339

27,642,800

30,627,050

33,469,192

36,175,994

38,753,901

41,209,050

43,547,288

45,774,180

47,895,031

49,914,888

51,838,562

53,670,632

55,415,461


Discount rate

0.08

Displacemen

t constant

0.60

NPV income total

43,210,341

00

0660,294

1,284,267

1,869,119

2,413,006

2,914,881

2,811,973

2,708,317

2,604,589

2,501,367

2,316,080

2,144,519

1,985,666

1,838,579

1,702,388

1,576,285

1,459,524

1,351,411

1,251,306

1,158,617

1,072,793

993,327

919,747

851,618

788,535

730,125

676,042

625,965

Cumulative income

00

0660,294

1,944,561

3,813,680

6,226,686

9,141,567

11,953,540

14,661,858

17,266,447

19,767,814

22,083,894

24,228,413

26,214,078

28,052,658

29,755,046

31,331,331

32,790,855

34,142,265

35,393,572

36,552,188

37,624,982

38,618,309

39,538,056

40,389,674

41,178,209

41,908,334

42,584,376

43,210,341

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,427,871

16,759,029

23,136,980

23,265,610

23,333,668

23,396,685

23,455,034

23,509,061

23,559,086

23,605,405

23,648,294

23,688,005

23,724,775

23,758,821

23,790,345

23,819,534

23,846,561

23,871,586

23,894,757

23,916,212

23,936,078

23,954,472

23,971,503

23,987,273

24,001,875

24,015,395

24,027,914

24,039,505

24,050,238

24,060,176

Difference, PL

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,605,316

‐21,389,107

‐19,583,005

‐17,228,348

‐14,367,494

‐11,605,546

‐8,943,548

‐6,381,847

‐3,920,192

‐1,640,881

469,592

2,423,733

4,233,123

5,908,485

7,459,745

8,896,097

10,226,053

11,457,494

12,597,717

13,653,478

14,631,036

15,536,181

16,374,279

17,150,296

17,868,829

18,534,138

19,150,165


Discount rate

0.08

Displacemen

t constant

0.50

NPV income total

48,119,739

00

0758,949

1,466,960

2,122,860

2,726,266

3,277,451

3,147,686

3,019,163

2,892,408

2,767,866

2,562,839

2,372,999

2,197,222

2,034,464

1,883,763

1,744,225

1,615,023

1,495,392

1,384,622

1,282,058

1,187,090

1,099,158

1,017,739

942,351

872,547

807,914

748,068

692,656

Cumulative income

00

0758,949

2,225,909

4,348,769

7,075,035

10,352,485

13,500,172

16,519,334

19,411,742

22,179,609

24,742,448

27,115,447

29,312,669

31,347,133

33,230,896

34,975,122

36,590,145

38,085,537

39,470,159

40,752,217

41,939,307

43,038,465

44,056,204

44,998,555

45,871,101

46,679,015

47,427,084

48,119,739

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,427,871

16,759,029

23,136,980

23,265,610

23,333,668

23,396,685

23,455,034

23,509,061

23,559,086

23,605,405

23,648,294

23,688,005

23,724,775

23,758,821

23,790,345

23,819,534

23,846,561

23,871,586

23,894,757

23,916,212

23,936,078

23,954,472

23,971,503

23,987,273

24,001,875

24,015,395

24,027,914

24,039,505

24,050,238

24,060,176

Difference, PL

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,506,661

‐21,107,760

‐19,047,917

‐16,380,000

‐13,156,576

‐10,058,915

‐7,086,071

‐4,236,551

‐1,508,397

1,017,673

3,356,626

5,522,323

7,527,599

9,384,335

11,103,536

12,695,388

14,169,325

15,534,082

16,797,745

17,967,804

19,051,192

20,054,329

20,983,159

21,843,188

22,639,510

23,376,846

24,059,564


Discount rate

0.08

Displacemen

t constant

0.40

NPV income total

53,029,138

00

0857,603

1,649,653

2,376,601

3,039,526

3,640,020

3,483,399

3,330,008

3,180,228

3,034,366

2,809,598

2,601,480

2,408,777

2,230,349

2,065,138

1,912,165

1,770,523

1,639,373

1,517,938

1,405,499

1,301,388

1,204,988

1,115,730

1,033,083

956,559

885,702

820,095

759,347

Cumulative income

00

0857,603

2,507,256

4,883,857

7,923,383

11,563,404

15,046,803

18,376,810

21,557,038

24,591,404

27,401,002

30,002,481

32,411,259

34,641,608

36,706,747

38,618,912

40,389,435

42,028,809

43,546,747

44,952,246

46,253,633

47,458,622

48,574,352

49,607,435

50,563,994

51,449,696

52,269,791

53,029,138

NPV expen

diture total

24,060,176

8,427,871

8,331,158

6,377,951

128,630

68,058

63,017

58,349

54,027

50,025

46,319

42,888

39,711

36,770

34,046

31,524

29,189

27,027

25,025

23,171

21,455

19,866

18,394

17,032

15,770

14,602

13,520

12,519

11,591

10,733

9,938

Cumulative expen

ditur e

8,427,871

16,759,029

23,136,980

23,265,610

23,333,668

23,396,685

23,455,034

23,509,061

23,559,086

23,605,405

23,648,294

23,688,005

23,724,775

23,758,821

23,790,345

23,819,534

23,846,561

23,871,586

23,894,757

23,916,212

23,936,078

23,954,472

23,971,503

23,987,273

24,001,875

24,015,395

24,027,914

24,039,505

24,050,238

24,060,176

Difference, PL

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,408,007

‐20,826,412

‐18,512,828

‐15,531,651

‐11,945,657

‐8,512,284

‐5,228,595

‐2,091,256

903,399

3,676,227

6,243,660

8,620,914

10,822,074

12,860,186

14,747,326

16,494,678

18,112,597

19,610,669

20,997,774

22,282,130

23,471,348

24,572,477

25,592,040

26,536,080

27,410,191

28,219,553

28,968,962

Envelope Data

MAX

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,077,860

‐19,884,881

‐16,722,153

‐12,059,951

‐6,047,431

‐175,599

5,555,309

11,145,399

16,595,087

21,785,266

26,728,294

31,435,940

35,919,412

40,189,386

44,256,027

48,129,019

51,817,582

55,330,500

58,676,136

61,862,456

64,897,046

67,787,133

70,539,595

73,160,989

75,657,554

78,035,235

80,299,693

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 1

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,458,487

‐21,354,459

‐18,210,249

‐14,065,474

‐8,961,395

‐3,954,746

952,178

5,757,522

10,459,833

14,938,224

19,203,359

23,265,392

27,133,995

30,818,379

34,327,316

37,669,160

40,851,870

43,883,021

46,769,832

49,519,176

52,137,599

54,631,335

57,006,322

59,268,214

61,422,396

63,473,999

65,427,907

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 2

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,348,065

‐21,033,710

‐17,589,033

‐13,062,713

‐7,504,413

‐2,065,173

3,253,743

8,451,460

13,527,460

18,361,745

22,965,827

27,350,666

31,526,704

35,503,882

39,291,671

42,899,090

46,334,726

49,606,761

52,722,984

55,690,816

58,517,323

61,209,234

63,772,959

66,214,601

68,539,975

70,754,617

72,863,800

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 3

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,237,644

‐20,712,962

‐16,967,817

‐12,059,951

‐6,047,431

‐175,599

5,555,309

11,145,399

16,595,087

21,785,266

26,728,294

31,435,940

35,919,412

40,189,386

44,256,027

48,129,019

51,817,582

55,330,500

58,676,136

61,862,456

64,897,046

67,787,133

70,539,595

73,160,989

75,657,554

78,035,235

80,299,693

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 4

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,275,169

‐20,447,577

‐17,792,330

‐14,389,348

‐10,315,153

‐6,429,742

‐2,727,500

797,389

4,150,886

7,255,975

10,131,058

12,793,172

15,258,092

17,540,425

19,653,697

21,610,430

23,422,220

25,099,803

26,653,121

28,091,378

29,423,098

30,656,172

31,797,907

32,855,069

33,833,922

34,740,269

35,579,478

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 5

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,176,514

‐20,166,229

‐17,257,242

‐13,540,999

‐9,104,235

‐4,883,111

‐870,024

2,942,685

6,562,681

9,914,529

13,018,092

15,891,762

18,552,567

21,016,276

23,297,487

25,409,720

27,365,492

29,176,391

30,853,150

32,405,704

33,843,254

35,174,319

36,406,787

37,547,961

38,604,603

39,582,976

40,488,876

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 6

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,077,860

‐19,884,881

‐16,722,153

‐12,692,650

‐7,893,317

‐3,336,480

987,452

5,087,980

8,974,476

12,573,083

15,905,127

18,990,352

21,847,043

24,492,126

26,941,278

29,209,011

31,308,763

33,252,979

35,053,178

36,720,030

38,263,411

39,692,467

41,015,667

42,240,853

43,375,284

44,425,683

45,398,275

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 7

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,828,013

‐22,427,845

‐20,289,149

‐17,421,217

‐13,837,189

‐10,278,208

‐6,750,015

‐3,257,749

194,012

3,481,404

6,612,253

9,594,014

12,433,787

15,138,332

17,714,089

20,167,191

22,503,479

24,728,515

26,847,597

28,865,770

30,787,840

32,618,383

34,361,757

36,022,113

37,603,404

39,109,396

40,543,674

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 8

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,717,592

‐22,107,096

‐19,667,933

‐16,418,456

‐12,380,207

‐8,388,634

‐4,448,450

‐563,810

3,261,639

6,904,925

10,374,721

13,679,288

16,826,495

19,823,835

22,678,445

25,397,121

27,986,336

30,452,255

32,800,749

35,037,410

37,167,564

39,196,282

41,128,394

42,968,500

44,720,983

46,390,014

47,979,568

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 9

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,607,170

‐21,786,348

‐19,046,717

‐15,415,694

‐10,923,225

‐6,499,061

‐2,146,885

2,130,128

6,329,267

10,328,446

14,137,188

17,764,562

21,219,204

24,509,339

27,642,800

30,627,050

33,469,192

36,175,994

38,753,901

41,209,050

43,547,288

45,774,180

47,895,031

49,914,888

51,838,562

53,670,632

55,415,461

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 10

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,605,316

‐21,389,107

‐19,583,005

‐17,228,348

‐14,367,494

‐11,605,546

‐8,943,548

‐6,381,847

‐3,920,192

‐1,640,881

469,592

2,423,733

4,233,123

5,908,485

7,459,745

8,896,097

10,226,053

11,457,494

12,597,717

13,653,478

14,631,036

15,536,181

16,374,279

17,150,296

17,868,829

18,534,138

19,150,165

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 11

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,506,661

‐21,107,760

‐19,047,917

‐16,380,000

‐13,156,576

‐10,058,915

‐7,086,071

‐4,236,551

‐1,508,397

1,017,673

3,356,626

5,522,323

7,527,599

9,384,335

11,103,536

12,695,388

14,169,325

15,534,082

16,797,745

17,967,804

19,051,192

20,054,329

20,983,159

21,843,188

22,639,510

23,376,846

24,059,564

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 12

‐8,427,871

‐16,759,029

‐23,136,980

‐22,408,007

‐20,826,412

‐18,512,828

‐15,531,651

‐11,945,657

‐8,512,284

‐5,228,595

‐2,091,256

903,399

3,676,227

6,243,660

8,620,914

10,822,074

12,860,186

14,747,326

16,494,678

18,112,597

19,610,669

20,997,774

22,282,130

23,471,348

24,572,477

25,592,040

26,536,080

27,410,191

28,219,553

28,968,962

MIN

‐8,668,668

‐17,482,692

‐24,423,093

‐23,828,013

‐22,427,845

‐20,289,149

‐17,421,217

‐14,367,494

‐11,605,546

‐8,943,548

‐6,381,847

‐3,920,192

‐1,640,881

469,592

2,423,733

4,233,123

5,908,485

7,459,745

8,896,097

10,226,053

11,457,494

12,597,717

13,653,478

14,631,036

15,536,181

16,374,279

17,150,296

17,868,829

18,534,138

19,150,165

Annual Income Data International Not Discounted

MAX

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 1

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 2

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 3

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 4

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 5

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 6

00

0542,175

1,174,713

1,897,614

2,710,877

3,614,503

3,840,409

4,066,315

4,292,222

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 7

00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 8

00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 9

00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 10

00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 11

00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 12

00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

MIN

00

0361,450

813,263

1,355,438

1,987,976

2,710,877

2,936,783

3,162,690

3,388,596

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

3,614,503

Annual Income Data Domestic Not Discounted

MAX

00

01,073,746

2,147,492

3,221,238

4,294,983

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 1

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 2

00

0939,528

1,879,055

2,818,583

3,758,110

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

4,697,638

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 3

00

01,073,746

2,147,492

3,221,238

4,294,983

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 4

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 5

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 6

00

01,073,746

2,147,492

3,221,238

4,294,983

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

5,368,729

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 7

00

0536,873

1,073,746

1,610,619

2,147,492

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 8

00

0671,091

1,342,182

2,013,273

2,684,365

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 9

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 10

00

0536,873

1,073,746

1,610,619

2,147,492

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 11

00

0671,091

1,342,182

2,013,273

2,684,365

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

3,355,456

South Kerry Green

way ‐ Scenario 12

00

0805,309

1,610,619

2,415,928

3,221,238

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

4,026,547

MIN

00

0536,873

1,073,746

1,610,619

2,147,492

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

2,684,365

-40,

000,

000

-20,

000,

0000

20,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

80,0

00,0

00

100,

000,

000

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

NPV

Year

Scen

ario

1 (

disc

ount

ed a

t 7.

5%)

Cum

ulat

ive

Inco

me

Cum

ulat

ive

Expe

nditu

re

Prof

it an

d Lo

ss L

ine

-40,

000,

000

-20,

000,

0000

20,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

80,0

00,0

00

100,

000,

000

120,

000,

000

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

NPV

Year

Scen

ario

2 (

disc

ount

ed a

t 7.

5%)

Cum

ulat

ive

Inco

me

Cum

ulat

ive

Expe

nditu

re

Prof

it an

d Lo

ss L

ine

-40,

000,

000

-20,

000,

0000

20,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

80,0

00,0

00

100,

000,

000

120,

000,

000

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

NPV

Year

Scen

ario

3 (

disc

ount

ed a

t 7.

5%)

Cum

ulat

ive

Inco

me

Cum

ulat

ive

Expe

nditu

re

Prof

it an

d Lo

ss L

ine

-40,

000,

000

-20,

000,

0000

20,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

80,0

00,0

00

100,

000,

000

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

NPV

Year

Scen

ario

Env

elop

e

Max

Min

-30,

000,

000

-20,

000,

000

-10,

000,

0000

10,0

00,0

00

20,0

00,0

00

30,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

50,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

70,0

00,0

00

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

NPV

Year

Scen

ario

4 (

disc

ount

ed a

t 5%

)

Cum

ulat

ive

Inco

me

Cum

ulat

ive

Expe

nditu

re

-30,

000,

000

-20,

000,

000

-10,

000,

0000

10,0

00,0

00

20,0

00,0

00

30,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

50,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

70,0

00,0

00

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

NPV

Year

Scen

ario

5 (

disc

ount

ed a

t 5%

)

Cum

ulat

ive

Inco

me

-40,

000,

000

-20,

000,

0000

20,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

80,0

00,0

00

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

NPV

Year

Scen

ario

6 (

disc

ount

ed a

t 5%

)

Cum

ulat

ive

Inco

me

0

1,00

0,00

0

2,00

0,00

0

3,00

0,00

0

4,00

0,00

0

5,00

0,00

0

6,00

0,00

0

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

Year

Inte

rnat

iona

l and

Dom

estic

Vis

itor

Inco

me

Inte

rnat

iona

l vis

itor

inco

me

max

Dom

estic

inco

me

max

Dom

estic

inco

me

min

Inte

rnat

iona

l vis

itor

inco

me

min

Year

>>

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

Mayo trips 2016

38.00%

Local

98,675

259,670

39.00%

Domestic

101,271

23.00%

International

59,724

Displacemen

t time profile, domestic

Scen

ario 1 and 4

Domestic

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

Scen

ario 2 and 5

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

30%

Scen

ario 3 and 6

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Displacemen

t time profile, international

Scen

ario 1 and 4

International

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Scen

ario 2 and 5

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Scen

ario 3 and 6

0%

0%

0%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

SKG

Alowance for uplift to intenational and domestic only

0.00%

Local

98,675

Domestic

101,271

International

59,724

Conversion of visits to numbers of trips

1.80

Local

54,819

1.80

Domestic

56,262

1.80

International

33,180

Conversion of trips to visitor numbers

2.00

Local

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

Domestic

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

International

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

Spen

d data

Local

27.31

Domestic

71.00

International

89.00

Length of stay

Local

0.00

Domestic

4.80

International

6.80

Red

uction factors assocaited

with 'attraction'

Local

1.00

Domestic

0.70

International

0.45

Reven

ue stream

Local

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

Domestic

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

International

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Red

uction years 1 ‐5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

Actual Revenue Stream

Local

00

0299,423

598,845

898,268

1,197,690

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

Domestic

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

International

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Year

>>

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

Mayo trips

Local

98,675

Domestic

101,271

International

59,724

Displacemen

t time profile, domestic

Scen

ario 7, 10

Domestic

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

60%

Scen

ario 8,11

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

50%

Scen

ario 9, 12

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

40%

Displacemen

t time profile, international

Scen

ario 7, 10

International

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Scen

ario 8,11

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

Scen

ario 9, 12

0%

0%

0%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

SKG

Alowance for uplift to intenational and domestic only

0.00%

Local

98,675

Domestic

101,271

International

59,724

Conversion of visits to numbers of trips

1.80

Local

54,819

1.80

Domestic

56,262

1.80

International

33,180

Conversion of trips to visitor numbers

2.00

Local

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

54,819

Domestic

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

28,131

International

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

16,590

Spen

d data

Local

27.31

Domestic

71.00

International

89.00

Length of stay

Local

0.00

Domestic

4.80

International

6.80

Red

uction factors assocaited

with 'attraction'

Local

1.00

Domestic

0.70

International

0.45

Reven

ue stream

Local

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

Domestic

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

International

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Red

uction years 1 ‐5

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

1.00

Actual Revenue Stream

Local

00

0299,423

598,845

898,268

1,197,690

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

1,497,113

Domestic

00

01,342,182

2,684,365

4,026,547

5,368,729

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

6,710,911

International

00

0903,626

1,807,251

2,710,877

3,614,503

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

4,518,128

Curren

t 2018 prices

Land Cost/CPO

4,016,500

Accommodation W

orks

917,500


845,265


983,000

Construction

13,860,000

Shadow Price for Public Funds (E04)

1.30

Adjusted

with Shaodow Price

Land Cost/CPO

5,221,450

Accommodation W

orks

1,192,750


1,098,845


1,277,900

Construction

18,018,000


Appendix 8.4 Cost Estimate


Appendix 8.5 Assessment of Economic Appraisal in the Business Case